Punishing is an emotional, subjective word. The member states will make decisions on what is in their best interests. That may involve insisting on terms that are not to the UK's advantage. If you and other Leavers are right that we hold more cards than The member states, everything will turn out OK. If you are wrong, it won't and a lot of people in the UK will pay the price. That's why I really hope you're right, despite the strong doubts I have that you are. We shall see.
Clearly it's not in the interest of the EU to provide other members incentives to leave. If we leave, we should prepare to be out in the cold.
If the EU can only hold itself together by threatening democratic votes against it and punishing "deserters" then, in the long run, it is doomed.
It doesn't have to threaten or punish. It simply has to sit on its hands or prioritise other things. Since we hold no leverage, there is nothing we can do about it.
Whoever is supporting Brexit should brace for a hard, uncertain time. The argument they have to win is that in the long run it will be worth it.
I have weighed the risks carefully (which exist on both sides) and calculated Brexit is the better option. Instability in the UK-EU relationship will also affect the residual stability of the EU and the value of the Euro, as much as ourselves, so I believe it is in their interests as much as ours to conclude a sensible arrangement.
Will there be compromises? Certainly. And no doubt the negotiations will be tough and hard fought. I am comfortable with the parameters of those too.
The main reason for delaying triggering the Article 50 process would be to decide what Britain's negotiating position is. Leave have no real idea of their priorities (though restricting freedom would clearly be top priority) and they would require some months, perhaps even a year or so, to get their position straight.
Obviously, they can't admit that at present.
I disagree on that. The one useful thing which has emerged from the campaign over the past few weeks is that we do now know, with a reasonable degree of precision, what a Leave vote would mean in terms of our realistic negotiating objectives:
- Tariff-free access to the Single Market for manufactured goods (shouldn't be a problem to agree that) - No customs union - As much retention of the dismantling of non-tariff barriers for goods as we can manage - But not part of the Single Market, so a looser arrangement than Norway or Switzerland have - No freedom of movement - In return, we'd give up on full access to the Single Market for services, and in particular no longer have 'EU passporting' for financial services. We'd obviously try for as much as we could get on those points, but realistically we're not going to be able to retain our current advantages on those points from a loose deal with the EU.
@Jonathan Quite. Negotiating a settlement with the EU on Brexit would be Britain's top priority. But it might well not be in the EU's top three: Eurozone stability, the migrant crisis and TTIP might all rank higher.
Anyone who hopes things go pear-shaped after a Brexit vote is a cock, quite frankly. Millions of livelihoods are at stake here. If Boris, Nigel and co have called this wrong it won't be the wealthy and the retired (in the UK) who pay the price, it will be average punters and their families.
Good post, it is always the ordinary people who pay the price of politicians folly
Punishing is an emotional, subjective word. The member states will make decisions on what is in their best interests. That may involve insisting on terms that are not to the UK's advantage. If you and other Leavers are right that we hold more cards than The member states, everything will turn out OK. If you are wrong, it won't and a lot of people in the UK will pay the price. That's why I really hope you're right, despite the strong doubts I have that you are. We shall see.
Clearly it's not in the interest of the EU to provide other members incentives to leave. If we leave, we should prepare to be out in the cold.
Your statement should be repeated over and over by Remain
Or by Leave, to a soundtrack of Hotel California. "You can checkout any time you like, but you can never leave..."
The main reason for delaying triggering the Article 50 process would be to decide what Britain's negotiating position is. Leave have no real idea of their priorities (though restricting freedom would clearly be top priority) and they would require some months, perhaps even a year or so, to get their position straight.
Obviously, they can't admit that at present.
I take it you meant restricting freedom of movement.
No, I think it would be delayed as we negotiated new agreements with countries outside the EU. Then we could use the 2 years Article 50 gives us to sort out a deal with EU.
@Casino_Royale Do you think it would reasonable and generous to impose a points system for migration and then be outraged when countries affected suggest that they might do the same in return?
Candidly, I believe that Leavers are being utterly delusional about how the renegotiation would be carried out. They seem to believe that they can get everything they want pain-free without making any concessions on points of concern on the other side and that it will all be tickety boo in a week or two once it's blown over because that would be "better". To me that sounds barking mad.
They have a delusional idea of the esteem the UK is held in by the rest of Europe. It is respected as are many of the countries in the EU but not more than.
I'm starting to get the very uneasy feeling that this referendum is being decided by the old the very old and the Colonel Blimps and few of them will be around to face the lasting consequences.
I suppose most Leavers don't expect the calamities of Brexit to penetrate their nursing homes. I'm all right Jack seems to be the attitude. However, a lot of carers in these places are from Spain or Portugal. They'd better hope such people get past the point-system firewall. Otherwise the fees are going to sky rocket.
Punishing is an emotional, subjective word. The member states will make decisions on what is in their best interests. That may involve insisting on terms that are not to the UK's advantage. If you and other Leavers are right that we hold more cards than The member states, everything will turn out OK. If you are wrong, it won't and a lot of people in the UK will pay the price. That's why I really hope you're right, despite the strong doubts I have that you are. We shall see.
Clearly it's not in the interest of the EU to provide other members incentives to leave. If we leave, we should prepare to be out in the cold.
If the EU can only hold itself together by threatening democratic votes against it and punishing "deserters" then, in the long run, it is doomed.
You are right that it will fail ultimately but the damage caused to the UK and Europe will be immense. The whole thing is a mess and there will be serious economic downsides for everyone, the UK and Europe if we leave and the hatred for the UK within Europe will be deep and prolonged, as both sides shoot themselves in the foot
Sorry, Big G, but I fundamentally disagree with that.
We will have decided the EU isn't for us. That is all.
There will be a few flounces, and then we'll start working out how we can work together like grown ups in future.
If Airbus close the Bristol factory, can Nige explain to the workers how they can cash their Sovereignty cheques?
Airbus is likely to move more manufacturing from the UK come what may. Leaving the EU would make some difference, but those jobs are only marginally safer if we remain.
Erm...the really complicated bits of a passenger jet are the engines, the wings and the cockpit/avionics/software. The engines and wings are made in Derby and Bristol respectively. (Engines by Rolls Royce as sub-contractor). Where would airbus suddenly move wing production to? A Leave decision would make zero difference to Airbus production from a business / technical point of view. The EU would be insane to add tariff cost to Airbus when a completed wing is flown to Toulouse from Bristol. It's a bullshit argument of the variety that Nick Clegg used to peddle. UK Airbus jobs are secure in or out of the EU.
Rolls Royce have plants in Berlin and Slovakia. Derby may well wither on the vine for investment.
It never has been sensible to build wings in one country then ship them elsewhere to assemble, better to build near the final production line.
The wings are either flown from Broughton (North Wales) or shipped via Mostyn Docks (North Wales) to Toulouse. There can be no certainty that Airbus will not shift manufacture of the wings to France, Germany or Spain if we exit the EU
I lived a few hundred yards into Wales, overlooking Broughton. "The Beluga" that ferries the wings is one weird looking aircraft!
Miliband Snr is out and about today putting the Remain case.
From where does he source his bananas?
If they are from the Canaries (Spain), the Algarve(Portugal), Martinique (France) or Cyprus then they are subsidised by the EU (that's by you and me, the UK taxpayer).
If Airbus close the Bristol factory, can Nige explain to the workers how they can cash their Sovereignty cheques?
Airbus is likely to move more manufacturing from the UK come what may. Leaving the EU would make some difference, but those jobs are only marginally safer if we remain.
Erm...the really complicated bits of a passenger jet are the engines, the wings and the cockpit/avionics/software. The engines and wings are made in Derby and Bristol respectively. (Engines by Rolls Royce as sub-contractor). Where would airbus suddenly move wing production to? A Leave decision would make zero difference to Airbus production from a business / technical point of view. The EU would be insane to add tariff cost to Airbus when a completed wing is flown to Toulouse from Bristol. It's a bullshit argument of the variety that Nick Clegg used to peddle. UK Airbus jobs are secure in or out of the EU.
Rolls Royce have plants in Berlin and Slovakia. Derby may well wither on the vine for investment.
It never has been sensible to build wings in one country then ship them elsewhere to assemble, better to build near the final production line.
The wings are either flown from Broughton (North Wales) or shipped via Mostyn Docks (North Wales) to Toulouse. There can be no certainty that Airbus will not shift manufacture of the wings to France, Germany or Spain if we exit the EU
There can be no certainty that they won't move production if we stay in, Big G. After all Ford closed a production plant here and moved it out of the EU to a country where production costs were lower but still had tariff free access to the EU. Being in the EU did not help those workers who lost their jobs in Southampton.
"Nigel Farage, the leader of Ukip, told LBC this morning that he will lead a flotilla of boats up the Thames to Westminster later this month to call for a Brexit."
"He said: 'On June 15 I will be boarding a small trawler in Southend-on-Sea at 5am, so not much point going to bed really, and we will catch the flood tide, and there will be 60 boats in a flotilla coming up the Thames and we will arrive outside the Palace of Westminster at midday.'"
"'It will be big, visual and dramatic, and the demand will be clear - we want our waters back.'"
Anyone who hopes things go pear-shaped after a Brexit vote is a cock, quite frankly. Millions of livelihoods are at stake here. If Boris, Nigel and co have called this wrong it won't be the wealthy and the retired (in the UK) who pay the price, it will be average punters and their families.
Good post, it is always the ordinary people who pay the price of politicians folly
I think that a fair few politicians will pay the price of ordinary people's folly!
trigger the exit process the week after a Leave vote, even before exit negotiations started. Why? Please tell us, Prime Minister."
Because that's the order it happens in. You ask for exit, then negotiate the exit...
The starting point for negotiations is a key decision point and that advantage is in the Govt's hands. Since there is a two year maximum for the period after it is triggered, Vote LEAVE say that the best tactic is not to trigger it until we are ready to negotiate. Now may be you know more about international negotiations than them? Perhaps you could enlighten us with what your experience is?
How much international negotiating have Boris and Nigel done? Gove is so useless at it he says the EU stops him from doing anything.
Nick Clegg has experience of negotiating with the WTO when he worked for the EU. Finally a role for the ex Deputy PM.
Clearly it's not in the interest of the EU to provide other members incentives to leave. If we leave, we should prepare to be out in the cold.
If the EU can only hold itself together by threatening democratic votes against it and punishing "deserters" then, in the long run, it is doomed.
You are right that it will fail ultimately but the damage caused to the UK and Europe will be immense. The whole thing is a mess and there will be serious economic downsides for everyone, the UK and Europe if we leave and the hatred for the UK within Europe will be deep and prolonged, as both sides shoot themselves in the foot
Sorry, Big G, but I fundamentally disagree with that.
We will have decided the EU isn't for us. That is all.
There will be a few flounces, and then we'll start working out how we can work together like grown ups in future.
Punishing is an emotional, subjective word. The member states will make decisions on what is in their best interests. That may involve insisting on terms that are not to the UK's advantage. If you and other Leavers are right that we hold more cards than The member states, everything will turn out OK. If you are wrong, it won't and a lot of people in the UK will pay the price. That's why I really hope you're right, despite the strong doubts I have that you are. We shall see.
Clearly it's not in the interest of the EU to provide other members incentives to leave. If we leave, we should prepare to be out in the cold.
If the EU can only hold itself together by threatening democratic votes against it and punishing "deserters" then, in the long run, it is doomed.
You are right that it will fail ultimately but the damage caused to the UK and Europe will be immense. The whole thing is a mess and there will be serious economic downsides for everyone, the UK and Europe if we leave and the hatred for the UK within Europe will be deep and prolonged, as both sides shoot themselves in the foot
Sorry, Big G, but I fundamentally disagree with that.
We will have decided the EU isn't for us. That is all.
There will be a few flounces, and then we'll start working out how we can work together like grown ups in future.
I - for one - intend to play a part in that.
You might be playing on your own as Europe turns away. It is amazing how leave paint a picture that everyone will be friends and trade deals will happen because Europe needs us. Listening to the leaders of Germany, Holland and Spain there is going to be a price to be paid, and we haven't even started on the French.
Anyone who hopes things go pear-shaped after a Brexit vote is a cock, quite frankly. Millions of livelihoods are at stake here. If Boris, Nigel and co have called this wrong it won't be the wealthy and the retired (in the UK) who pay the price, it will be average punters and their families.
Good post, it is always the ordinary people who pay the price of politicians folly
As they did when we tied sterling to the european currencies and then entered the ERM and sacirficed businesses and homes to frantically stay in the ERM as supported by all those who say we should stay in the EU... They were wrong then and wrong now.
Anyone who hopes things go pear-shaped after a Brexit vote is a cock, quite frankly. Millions of livelihoods are at stake here. If Boris, Nigel and co have called this wrong it won't be the wealthy and the retired (in the UK) who pay the price, it will be average punters and their families.
"Islam was hugely effective, quizzing the Prime Minister as he has rarely been quizzed before. And you could tell that he was struggling to answer when he found himself threatening (promising?) to trigger the exit process the week after a Leave vote, even before exit negotiations started. Why? Please tell us, Prime Minister."
This threat from Cameron is why he may be gone the next day if LEAVE win.
I keep seeing other commentators saying how tough Faisal was. I'm no fan and generally stopped paying attention to him ages ago as *impartial*.
I thought he was averagely assertive on Sky - clearly the PM was expecting a soft soaping - hence the obvious irritation and overtly aggressive response to someone he thought was on his side.
I still can't get over how rude/aggressive Cameron was to him. It's been remarked on all over the press, so I know it's not just me who thought he was belligerent. I don't think Faisal expected it either given his audible gasps.
He didn't expect someone from an ethnic minority to go so hard on him on immigration.
I detect a very strange mood on here this morning, almost as if those posters who would prefer to remain in the EU are conceding that they have lost the argument. It is most odd, entirely premature and I wonder what has brought it about. Surely it can't just be Cameron's appearance on television last night, which, from what I gather, told us nothing new about the man or his reasons for wanting to remain.
No, not lost the argument, but the cause is lost. In a month's time Britain will no longer be a member of the European Union. I said from the outset that Leave had the easier sell, and so it has proved. Nevertheless, there will be fun to be had. I can't wait to see Boris, IDS and Farage - skull-and-crossbones hats, cutlasses between their teeth - sailing off to forge this swashbuckling New Britain. Meanwhile, every redundancy, every bankruptcy, every diminishment of Britain's standing will be wholly and incontrovertibly Leave's fault. I'm looking forward to it.
You certainly will lose the argument if you carry on like that.
Old Golden Dawning ain't a happy bunny.
No, I'm in a good place. Britain's membership of the European Union is about to be rescinded. There's nothing I can do about it, so why worry? I also think that's Britain is finished too. Sturgeon and SNP will pounce post-Brexit, claiming that the SindyRef was run on a false prospectus. They'll get another one and they'll probably win it. All this just so the hard-right Tories can give Cameron and Osborne a poke in the eye. Was it really worth it?
I think that your hopes that bad things will happen to this country in the event of Brexit will be unfounded.
Mr. Observer, quite. Leave or Remain, we should hope for the best outcome for the country.
Mr. Dawning, you appear to be suggesting Cameron will act vindictively to make it harder for the UK to actually get a good deal.
Mr Dancer, I'm not saying Dave will be deliberately vindictive, but I can't see him busting a gut to make things all sweetness and light for his tormentors. That is human nature after all. Unless we're saying Dave is some sort of saint, which really isn't the impression I get from reading the posters on here.
If Airbus close the Bristol factory, can Nige explain to the workers how they can cash their Sovereignty cheques?
Airbus is likely to move more manufacturing from the UK come what may. Leaving the EU would make some difference, but those jobs are only marginally safer if we remain.
Erm...the really complicated bits of a passenger jet are the engines, the wings and the cockpit/avionics/software. The engines and wings are made in Derby and Bristol respectively. (Engines by Rolls Royce as sub-contractor). Where would airbus suddenly move wing production to? A Leave decision would make zero difference to Airbus production from a business / technical point of view. The EU would be insane to add tariff cost to Airbus when a completed wing is flown to Toulouse from Bristol. It's a bullshit argument of the variety that Nick Clegg used to peddle. UK Airbus jobs are secure in or out of the EU.
Rolls Royce have plants in Berlin and Slovakia. Derby may well wither on the vine for investment.
It never has been sensible to build wings in one country then ship them elsewhere to assemble, better to build near the final production line.
The wings are either flown from Broughton (North Wales) or shipped via Mostyn Docks (North Wales) to Toulouse. There can be no certainty that Airbus will not shift manufacture of the wings to France, Germany or Spain if we exit the EU
There can be no certainty that they won't move production if we stay in, Big G. After all Ford closed a production plant here and moved it out of the EU to a country where production costs were lower but still had tariff free access to the EU. Being in the EU did not help those workers who lost their jobs in Southampton.
and the EU provided the capital to build that factory in Turkey....
It is amazing how leave paint a picture that everyone will be friends and trade deals will happen because Europe needs us. Listening to the leaders of Germany, Holland and Spain there is going to be a price to be paid, and we haven't even started on the French.
You reckon France would stay in, then, after Brexit? Already a majority in France want a referendum. That figure will whizz up if Britain votes to leave. The lady of the moment is Marine, who has promised a referendum if she gets the presidency.
Punishing is an emotional, subjective word. The member states will make decisions on what is in their best interests. That may involve insisting on terms that are not to the UK's advantage. If you and other Leavers are right that we hold more cards than The member states, everything will turn out OK. If you are wrong, it won't and a lot of people in the UK will pay the price. That's why I really hope you're right, despite the strong doubts I have that you are. We shall see.
Clearly it's not in the interest of the EU to provide other members incentives to leave. If we leave, we should prepare to be out in the cold.
If the EU can only hold itself together by threatening democratic votes against it and punishing "deserters" then, in the long run, it is doomed.
You are right that it will fail ultimately but the damage caused to the UK and Europe will be immense. The whole thing is a mess and there will be serious economic downsides for everyone, the UK and Europe if we leave and the hatred for the UK within Europe will be deep and prolonged, as both sides shoot themselves in the foot
Sorry, Big G, but I fundamentally disagree with that.
We will have decided the EU isn't for us. That is all.
There will be a few flounces, and then we'll start working out how we can work together like grown ups in future.
I - for one - intend to play a part in that.
Are there any consequences of Brexit that would deter you even if you were persuaded they were likely? Isn't it a matter of absolute principle for you, such that any sacrifice would be worth it?
Mr. NorthWales, that would also shaft Ireland. The Republic does more trade with us than the whole of the rest of the EU.
Not to mention the likes of the Visegrad Group, who are unlikely to be impressed by the French and Germans trying to bully the disobedient (the QMV to relocate Merkel's migrants has not been a stunning success either in practical or diplomatic terms).
Clearly it's not in the interest of the EU to provide other members incentives to leave. If we leave, we should prepare to be out in the cold.
If the EU can only hold itself together by threatening democratic votes against it and punishing "deserters" then, in the long run, it is doomed.
You are right that it will fail ultimately but the damage caused to the UK and Europe will be immense. The whole thing is a mess and there will be serious economic downsides for everyone, the UK and Europe if we leave and the hatred for the UK within Europe will be deep and prolonged, as both sides shoot themselves in the foot
Sorry, Big G, but I fundamentally disagree with that.
We will have decided the EU isn't for us. That is all.
There will be a few flounces, and then we'll start working out how we can work together like grown ups in future.
Punishing is an emotional, subjective word. The member states will make decisions on what is in their best interests. That may involve insisting on terms that are not to the UK's advantage. If you and other Leavers are right that we hold more cards than The member states, everything will turn out OK. If you are wrong, it won't and a lot of people in the UK will pay the price. That's why I really hope you're right, despite the strong doubts I have that you are. We shall see.
Clearly it's not in the interest of the EU to provide other members incentives to leave. If we leave, we should prepare to be out in the cold.
If the EU can only hold itself together by threatening democratic votes against it and punishing "deserters" then, in the long run, it is doomed.
Sorry, Big G, but I fundamentally disagree with that.
We will have decided the EU isn't for us. That is all.
There will be a few flounces, and then we'll start working out how we can work together like grown ups in future.
I - for one - intend to play a part in that.
You might be playing on your own as Europe turns away. It is amazing how leave paint a picture that everyone will be friends and trade deals will happen because Europe needs us. Listening to the leaders of Germany, Holland and Spain there is going to be a price to be paid, and we haven't even started on the French.
Ultimately, I don't want to go along with "Be a part of my gang - or else."
Punishing is an emotional, subjective word. The member states will make decisions on what is in their best interests. That may involve insisting on terms that are not to the UK's advantage. If you and other Leavers are right that we hold more cards than The member states, everything will turn out OK. If you are wrong, it won't and a lot of people in the UK will pay the price. That's why I really hope you're right, despite the strong doubts I have that you are. We shall see.
Clearly it's not in the interest of the EU to provide other members incentives to leave. If we leave, we should prepare to be out in the cold.
If the EU can only hold itself together by threatening democratic votes against it and punishing "deserters" then, in the long run, it is doomed.
You are right that it will fail ultimately but the damage caused to the UK and Europe will be immense. The whole thing is a mess and there will be serious economic downsides for everyone, the UK and Europe if we leave and the hatred for the UK within Europe will be deep and prolonged, as both sides shoot themselves in the foot
Sorry, Big G, but I fundamentally disagree with that.
We will have decided the EU isn't for us. That is all.
There will be a few flounces, and then we'll start working out how we can work together like grown ups in future.
I - for one - intend to play a part in that.
Are there any consequences of Brexit that would deter you even if you were persuaded they were likely? Isn't it a matter of absolute principle for you, such that any sacrifice would be worth it?
I'd be deterred if I thought there was a genuine risk of war.
"They [E Reform] found 47 per cent of 18-24 year olds say they will definitely vote, compared to 80 per cent of those aged 65 or older - up only slightly from the end of April when the figures were 41 per cent and 76 per cent.
"I will say this, Hillary Clinton has got to go to jail," Trump told supporters here as he slammed Clinton's foreign policy speech earlier in the day in which Clinton called Trump dangerous and "temperamentally unfit" to be president.
"Folks, honestly, she's guilty as hell," Trump said of the Clinton's use of a private email server during her time as secretary of state.
Trump has previously accused Clinton of breaking federal law, but his comments on Thursday are his most direct call yet for Clinton to face jail time over her use of private email to conduct official State Department affairs.
Mr. NorthWales, that would also shaft Ireland. The Republic does more trade with us than the whole of the rest of the EU.
Not to mention the likes of the Visegrad Group, who are unlikely to be impressed by the French and Germans trying to bully the disobedient (the QMV to relocate Merkel's migrants has not been a stunning success either in practical or diplomatic terms).
Maybe but why can't leavers accept that there is a risk to our economy. To keep on repeating everything will be alright and there is nothing that will go wrong is just fantasy
' Do you think it would reasonable and generous to impose a points system for migration and then be outraged when countries affected suggest that they might do the same in return? '
Absolutely reasonable for both sides to have points systems.
That's the basis of controlled immigration versus the current free for all.
Punishing is an emotional, subjective word. The member states will make decisions on what is in their best interests. That may involve insisting on terms that are not to the UK's advantage. If you and other Leavers are right that we hold more cards than The member states, everything will turn out OK. If you are wrong, it won't and a lot of people in the UK will pay the price. That's why I really hope you're right, despite the strong doubts I have that you are. We shall see.
Clearly it's not in the interest of the EU to provide other members incentives to leave. If we leave, we should prepare to be out in the cold.
If the EU can only hold itself together by threatening democratic votes against it and punishing "deserters" then, in the long run, it is doomed.
You are right that it will fail ultimately but the damage caused to the UK and Europe will be immense. The whole thing is a mess and there will be serious economic downsides for everyone, the UK and Europe if we leave and the hatred for the UK within Europe will be deep and prolonged, as both sides shoot themselves in the foot
Sorry, Big G, but I fundamentally disagree with that.
We will have decided the EU isn't for us. That is all.
There will be a few flounces, and then we'll start working out how we can work together like grown ups in future.
@Jonathan Quite. Negotiating a settlement with the EU on Brexit would be Britain's top priority. But it might well not be in the EU's top three: Eurozone stability, the migrant crisis and TTIP might all rank higher.
The TTIP is dead if we leave. Part of the reason Obama was over here desperate to keep us in is because there is already too much opposition to it and if we leave the major national in favour of it won't be able to lobby for it.
I think a trade deal with a nation that the EU has a €150bn surplus is probably going to rank pretty high on the list of priorities. Our import patterns aren't fixed, for every BMW we currently import, we could well switch to importing a Lexus or going domestic with Jaguar.
Punishing is an emotional, subjective word. The member states will make decisions on what is in their best interests. That may involve insisting on terms that are not to the UK's advantage. If you and other Leavers are right that we hold more cards than The member states, everything will turn out OK. If you are wrong, it won't and a lot of people in the UK will pay the price. That's why I really hope you're right, despite the strong doubts I have that you are. We shall see.
Clearly it's not in the interest of the EU to provide other members incentives to leave. If we leave, we should prepare to be out in the cold.
If the EU can only hold itself together by threatening democratic votes against it and punishing "deserters" then, in the long run, it is doomed.
You are right that it will fail ultimately but the damage caused to the UK and Europe will be immense. The whole thing is a mess and there will be serious economic downsides for everyone, the UK and Europe if we leave and the hatred for the UK within Europe will be deep and prolonged, as both sides shoot themselves in the foot
Sorry, Big G, but I fundamentally disagree with that.
We will have decided the EU isn't for us. That is all.
There will be a few flounces, and then we'll start working out how we can work together like grown ups in future.
I - for one - intend to play a part in that.
Sure, but the idea that the UK will get anything like as good a deal outside as in is fanciful; why would we? The EU has every incentive to prioritise terms for its own members, as does any club.
Anyone who hopes things go pear-shaped after a Brexit vote is a cock, quite frankly. Millions of livelihoods are at stake here. If Boris, Nigel and co have called this wrong it won't be the wealthy and the retired (in the UK) who pay the price, it will be average punters and their families.
Do you think the reason that part of the elite is pro-Remain is because they care so much about ordinary people?
Punishing is an emotional, subjective word. The member states will make decisions on what is in their best interests. That may involve insisting on terms that are not to the UK's advantage. If you and other Leavers are right that we hold more cards than The member states, everything will turn out OK. If you are wrong, it won't and a lot of people in the UK will pay the price. That's why I really hope you're right, despite the strong doubts I have that you are. We shall see.
Clearly it's not in the interest of the EU to provide other members incentives to leave. If we leave, we should prepare to be out in the cold.
If the EU can only hold itself together by threatening democratic votes against it and punishing "deserters" then, in the long run, it is doomed.
You are right that it will fail ultimately but the damage caused to the UK and Europe will be immense. The whole thing is a mess and there will be serious economic downsides for everyone, the UK and Europe if we leave and the hatred for the UK within Europe will be deep and prolonged, as both sides shoot themselves in the foot
Sorry, Big G, but I fundamentally disagree with that.
We will have decided the EU isn't for us. That is all.
There will be a few flounces, and then we'll start working out how we can work together like grown ups in future.
I - for one - intend to play a part in that.
Are there any consequences of Brexit that would deter you even if you were persuaded they were likely? Isn't it a matter of absolute principle for you, such that any sacrifice would be worth it?
I'd be deterred if I thought there was a genuine risk of war.
Over what timescale? If 50 years from now there were a major war in Europe that could be traced back to events triggered by Brexit, would that be reason not to do it?
The attitude of our EU friends towards us if we decide to leave will be identical to the attitude that the UK government would have had towards Scotland if they had decided to leave the UK: "Sorry to see you go, good luck, we need to discuss arrangements for an orderly departure, don't expect any special favours, and by the way we'll be trying to divert as much financial-services business away from you and towards us".
I still think Remain will win, but if Leave wins it will change things in the EU. Other countries will get restive, small niggles will become giant obstacles, and we may see more referenda.
"Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold ... The best lack all conviction, while the worst are full of passionate intensity" (Yeats).
Mr. NorthWales, I agree that, in the short term at least, there would be negative economic consequences due to uncertainty and as treaties and deals are replaced or amended.
In the longer term, we would have the ability to negotiate our own trade deals to particularly suit the British economy, which would be advantageous, and our exposure to eurocratic red tape would be limited to business done with the EU (in the same way exporters to the US must conform to US standards, and so forth).
I do agree there's a black-and-white tendency to have woe, doom and death versus the land flowing with milk and honey, but I think the balance is that leaving would be positive.
And that's before we get to matters of accountability, democracy and so forth.
Miliband Snr is out and about today putting the Remain case.
From where does he source his bananas?
If they are from the Canaries (Spain), the Algarve(Portugal), Martinique (France) or Cyprus then they are subsidised by the EU (that's by you and me, the UK taxpayer).
"They [E Reform] found 47 per cent of 18-24 year olds say they will definitely vote, compared to 80 per cent of those aged 65 or older - up only slightly from the end of April when the figures were 41 per cent and 76 per cent.
It is amazing how leave paint a picture that everyone will be friends and trade deals will happen because Europe needs us. Listening to the leaders of Germany, Holland and Spain there is going to be a price to be paid, and we haven't even started on the French.
You reckon France would stay in, then, after Brexit? Already a majority in France want a referendum. That figure will whizz up if Britain votes to leave. The lady of the moment is Marine, who has promised a referendum if she gets the presidency.
I think you said down-thread that the EU would then be dead as it would be 'just a German trading block'. You're underestimating how many countries would quite like being part of such a block, especially if the alternative is being a client state of Russia.
Punishing is an emotional, subjective word. The member states will make decisions on what is in their best interests. That may involve insisting on terms that are not to the UK's advantage. If you and other Leavers are right that we hold more cards than The member states, everything will turn out OK. If you are wrong, it won't and a lot of people in the UK will pay the price. That's why I really hope you're right, despite the strong doubts I have that you are. We shall see.
Clearly it's not in the interest of the EU to provide other members incentives to leave. If we leave, we should prepare to be out in the cold.
If the EU can only hold itself together by threatening democratic votes against it and punishing "deserters" then, in the long run, it is doomed.
You are right that it will fail ultimately but the damage caused to the UK and Europe will be immense. The whole thing is a mess and there will be serious economic downsides for everyone, the UK and Europe if we leave and the hatred for the UK within Europe will be deep and prolonged, as both sides shoot themselves in the foot
Sorry, Big G, but I fundamentally disagree with that.
We will have decided the EU isn't for us. That is all.
There will be a few flounces, and then we'll start working out how we can work together like grown ups in future.
I - for one - intend to play a part in that.
Are there any consequences of Brexit that would deter you even if you were persuaded they were likely? Isn't it a matter of absolute principle for you, such that any sacrifice would be worth it?
I'd be deterred if I thought there was a genuine risk of war.
Over what timescale? If 50 years from now there were a major war in Europe that could be traced back to events triggered by Brexit, would that be reason not to do it?
I think that over the course of 50 years, there would be so many variables that it would be very hard to trace the cause of war to Brexit.
Miliband Snr is out and about today putting the Remain case.
From where does he source his bananas?
If they are from the Canaries (Spain), the Algarve(Portugal), Martinique (France) or Cyprus then they are subsidised by the EU (that's by you and me, the UK taxpayer).
Miliband Snr is out and about today putting the Remain case.
From where does he source his bananas?
If they are from the Canaries (Spain), the Algarve(Portugal), Martinique (France) or Cyprus then they are subsidised by the EU (that's by you and me, the UK taxpayer).
The Canaries are outside the EU, aren't they?
The Canaries are a special territory but are counted as part of the EU for everything except VAT.
The attitude of our EU friends towards us if we decide to leave will be identical to the attitude that the UK government would have had towards Scotland if they had decided to leave the UK: "Sorry to see you go, good luck, we need to discuss arrangements for an orderly departure, don't expect any special favours, and by the way we'll be trying to divert as much financial-services business away from you and towards us".
I don't see how that is any different to now, the only thing that really changes is EUR denominates trades would be synthetically cleared the same as dollar denominated trades are.
Miliband Snr is out and about today putting the Remain case.
From where does he source his bananas?
If they are from the Canaries (Spain), the Algarve(Portugal), Martinique (France) or Cyprus then they are subsidised by the EU (that's by you and me, the UK taxpayer).
The Canaries are outside the EU, aren't they?
The outermost regions (OMR) are geographic areas which are part of a European Union Member State, are situated outside of Europe and are fully part of the EU.
I daresay we won't, but I'd be interested to find out about the constitutional machinations currently underway at the FCO and Cabinet Office over what to do on June 24 if Leave wins. Strikes me that Cameron could well be prime minister more or less in the same way that Gordon Brown was for the 5 days after the 2010 general election.
I appreciate that's not explicit in the case where we still have a nominally-legitimate government in place. But any civil servant given an order by Dave that Friday while Gove is on the phone to Pickfords booking a removals van is surely going to think quite hard about what to do with it?
On the flip-side, nothing that Leave says in the run-up can be construed as a blueprint for what happens thereafter, because (apart from being as clear as mud) their victory doesn't make them the government.
Do you reckon there's off-the-record stuff going on between civil servants and potential Brexiteer PMs? Maybe even Corbyn's lot if they see a GE on the horizon?
Punishing is an emotional, subjective word. The member states will make decisions on what is in their best interests. That may involve insisting on terms that are not to the UK's advantage. If you and other Leavers are right that we hold more cards than The member states, everything will turn out OK. If you are wrong, it won't and a lot of people in the UK will pay the price. That's why I really hope you're right, despite the strong doubts I have that you are. We shall see.
Clearly it's not in the interest of the EU to provide other members incentives to leave. If we leave, we should prepare to be out in the cold.
If the EU can only hold itself together by threatening democratic votes against it and punishing "deserters" then, in the long run, it is doomed.
You are right that it will fail ultimately but the damage caused to the UK and Europe will be immense. The whole thing is a mess and there will be serious economic downsides for everyone, the UK and Europe if we leave and the hatred for the UK within Europe will be deep and prolonged, as both sides shoot themselves in the foot
Sorry, Big G, but I fundamentally disagree with that.
We will have decided the EU isn't for us. That is all.
There will be a few flounces, and then we'll start working out how we can work together like grown ups in future.
I - for one - intend to play a part in that.
Are there any consequences of Brexit that would deter you even if you were persuaded they were likely? Isn't it a matter of absolute principle for you, such that any sacrifice would be worth it?
I'd be deterred if I thought there was a genuine risk of war.
Over what timescale? If 50 years from now there were a major war in Europe that could be traced back to events triggered by Brexit, would that be reason not to do it?
I think that over the course of 50 years, there would be so many variables that it would be very hard to trace the cause of war to Brexit.
If the primary variable were the absence of the EU, it wouldn't be that much of a stretch to lay the blame at the door of Brexit.
Miliband Snr is out and about today putting the Remain case.
From where does he source his bananas?
If they are from the Canaries (Spain), the Algarve(Portugal), Martinique (France) or Cyprus then they are subsidised by the EU (that's by you and me, the UK taxpayer).
The Canaries are outside the EU, aren't they?
The outermost regions (OMR) are geographic areas which are part of a European Union Member State, are situated outside of Europe and are fully part of the EU. This includes the Canary Islands.
Punishing is an emotional, subjective word. The member states will make decisions on what is in their best interests. That may involve insisting on terms that are not to the UK's advantage. If you and other Leavers are right that we hold more cards than The member states, everything will turn out OK. If you are wrong, it won't and a lot of people in the UK will pay the price. That's why I really hope you're right, despite the strong doubts I have that you are. We shall see.
Clearly it's not in the interest of the EU to provide other members incentives to leave. If we leave, we should prepare to be out in the cold.
If the EU can only hold itself together by threatening democratic votes against it and punishing "deserters" then, in the long run, it is doomed.
You are right that it will fail ultimately but the damage caused to the UK and Europe will be immense. The whole thing is a mess and there will be serious economic downsides for everyone, the UK and Europe if we leave and the hatred for the UK within Europe will be deep and prolonged, as both sides shoot themselves in the foot
Sorry, Big G, but I fundamentally disagree with that.
We will have decided the EU isn't for us. That is all.
There will be a few flounces, and then we'll start working out how we can work together like grown ups in future.
I - for one - intend to play a part in that.
Sure, but the idea that the UK will get anything like as good a deal outside as in is fanciful; why would we? The EU has every incentive to prioritise terms for its own members, as does any club.
I don't think the deal we currently have is acceptable, David.
I agree that post Brexit the level of free access we will get to the single market will probably be less in services and financial passporting, but I think the effects of this can be exaggerated in impact, will be overset by economic freedoms in other areas and globally, and we will still be able to successfully do business in the EU.
Turning it around, adopting the euro would have made it even 'easier' to trade within the single market due to no exchange rate risk and transaction costs but we calculated (rightly) that the marginal economic benefits in the eurozone were not worth the political cost.
Are there any consequences of Brexit that would deter you even if you were persuaded they were likely? Isn't it a matter of absolute principle for you, such that any sacrifice would be worth it?
I'd be deterred if I thought there was a genuine risk of war.
NATO-Russia is coming anyway. NATO's recently retired Deputy Supreme Allied Commander Europe (DSACEUR), Richard Shirreff, predicts it for next year. I've just started to read his badly-written book. I doubt that the referendum result will have much impact either way. If anything, Brexit will at least have fired up the population in one European country to slap the government's face, perhaps making it more likely that they'll do it again before British cities start getting nuked. Shirreff predicts casualties on our continent on a similar scale to WW2.
The attitude of our EU friends towards us if we decide to leave will be identical to the attitude that the UK government would have had towards Scotland if they had decided to leave the UK: "Sorry to see you go, good luck, we need to discuss arrangements for an orderly departure, don't expect any special favours, and by the way we'll be trying to divert as much financial-services business away from you and towards us".
I don't see how that is any different to now, the only thing that really changes is EUR denominates trades would be synthetically cleared the same as dollar denominated trades are.
Well, to take one obvious example, Goldman Sachs currently has 6,500 staff in the EU. 6,000 of them are in the UK. Without EU passporting, they'll have to beef up their operations somewhere else within the EU. Over time, that will inevitably be at the expense of London.
As for staying, the only way I would vote to stay is if the EU agreed to amend the Treaty of Rome and remove the ever closer union rubbish, dropped any idea of becoming a functioning nation state and essentially stopped being a customs union and became a free trading bloc instead.
Anyone who hopes things go pear-shaped after a Brexit vote is a cock, quite frankly. Millions of livelihoods are at stake here. If Boris, Nigel and co have called this wrong it won't be the wealthy and the retired (in the UK) who pay the price, it will be average punters and their families.
Do you think the reason that part of the elite is pro-Remain is because they care so much about ordinary people?
I think they believe that it is in the UK's best interests and that this includes the interests of ordinary people. Obviously, the Leave elite thinks the opposite. As Leave look like winning, we have to hope that they are right about how things will pan out. .
Punishing is an emotional, subjective word. The member states will make decisions on what is in their best interests. That may involve insisting on terms that are not to the UK's advantage. If you and other Leavers are right that we hold more cards than The member states, everything will turn out OK. If you are wrong, it won't and a lot of people in the UK will pay the price. That's why I really hope you're right, despite the strong doubts I have that you are. We shall see.
Clearly it's not in the interest of the EU to provide other members incentives to leave. If we leave, we should prepare to be out in the cold.
If the EU can only hold itself together by threatening democratic votes against it and punishing "deserters" then, in the long run, it is doomed.
You are right that it will fail ultimately but the damage caused to the UK and Europe will be immense. The whole thing is a mess and there will be serious economic downsides for everyone, the UK and Europe if we leave and the hatred for the UK within Europe will be deep and prolonged, as both sides shoot themselves in the foot
Sorry, Big G, but I fundamentally disagree with that.
We will have decided the EU isn't for us. That is all.
There will be a few flounces, and then we'll start working out how we can work together like grown ups in future.
I - for one - intend to play a part in that.
Are there any consequences of Brexit that would deter you even if you were persuaded they were likely? Isn't it a matter of absolute principle for you, such that any sacrifice would be worth it?
I'd be deterred if I thought there was a genuine risk of war.
Over what timescale? If 50 years from now there were a major war in Europe that could be traced back to events triggered by Brexit, would that be reason not to do it?
I think that over the course of 50 years, there would be so many variables that it would be very hard to trace the cause of war to Brexit.
If the primary variable were the absence of the EU, it wouldn't be that much of a stretch to lay the blame at the door of Brexit.
No doubt that's how Eurocrats and europhiles will see it.
I think a better question to ask is why one of its biggest members of over 40 years felt it had no option but to vote Leave.
The attitude of our EU friends towards us if we decide to leave will be identical to the attitude that the UK government would have had towards Scotland if they had decided to leave the UK: "Sorry to see you go, good luck, we need to discuss arrangements for an orderly departure, don't expect any special favours, and by the way we'll be trying to divert as much financial-services business away from you and towards us".
I don't see how that is any different to now, the only thing that really changes is EUR denominates trades would be synthetically cleared the same as dollar denominated trades are.
Well, to take one obvious example, Goldman Sachs currently has 6,500 staff in the EU. 6,000 of them are in the UK. Without EU passporting, they'll have to beef up their operations somewhere else within the EU. Over time, that will inevitably be at the expense of London.
Goldman Sachs will stay exactly where Goldman Sachs wants to stay...
The attitude of our EU friends towards us if we decide to leave will be identical to the attitude that the UK government would have had towards Scotland if they had decided to leave the UK: "Sorry to see you go, good luck, we need to discuss arrangements for an orderly departure, don't expect any special favours, and by the way we'll be trying to divert as much financial-services business away from you and towards us".
I don't see how that is any different to now, the only thing that really changes is EUR denominates trades would be synthetically cleared the same as dollar denominated trades are.
Well, to take one obvious example, Goldman Sachs currently has 6,500 staff in the EU. 6,000 of them are in the UK. Without EU passporting, they'll have to beef up their operations somewhere else within the EU. Over time, that will inevitably be at the expense of London.
Well if running the economy as an entrepôt state works for Singapore...
Blaming a theoretical war in half a century on the potential result of this referendum is like a man blaming his ex-wife for his incarceration decades after their divorce.
Mr. NorthWales, I agree that, in the short term at least, there would be negative economic consequences due to uncertainty and as treaties and deals are replaced or amended.
In the longer term, we would have the ability to negotiate our own trade deals to particularly suit the British economy, which would be advantageous, and our exposure to eurocratic red tape would be limited to business done with the EU (in the same way exporters to the US must conform to US standards, and so forth).
I do agree there's a black-and-white tendency to have woe, doom and death versus the land flowing with milk and honey, but I think the balance is that leaving would be positive.
And that's before we get to matters of accountability, democracy and so forth.
Thank you for an honest reply and that on balance you are for leave. I am for remain as you know but it does not mean I am a Europhile. I just believe this is not the time to cut and run but neither side can be certain of the future and I believe that whichever side we are on we must accept the will of the people, whatever that is, and move on post 23rd June
The main reason for delaying triggering the Article 50 process would be to decide what Britain's negotiating position is. Leave have no real idea of their priorities (though restricting freedom would clearly be top priority) and they would require some months, perhaps even a year or so, to get their position straight.
Obviously, they can't admit that at present.
I disagree on that. The one useful thing which has emerged from the campaign over the past few weeks is that we do now know, with a reasonable degree of precision, what a Leave vote would mean in terms of our realistic negotiating objectives:
- Tariff-free access to the Single Market for manufactured goods (shouldn't be a problem to agree that) - No customs union - As much retention of the dismantling of non-tariff barriers for goods as we can manage - But not part of the Single Market, so a looser arrangement than Norway or Switzerland have - No freedom of movement - In return, we'd give up on full access to the Single Market for services, and in particular no longer have 'EU passporting' for financial services. We'd obviously try for as much as we could get on those points, but realistically we're not going to be able to retain our current advantages on those points from a loose deal with the EU.
The point on freedom of movement is the key one there; the rest follow inevitably from it. But then that point flows inevitably from a Leave vote off the back of immigration as the central issue.
I don't think a great deal needs to be known about Leave's agenda, or the government's contingency plans, or future Tory leadership candidates' policies. There is little scope for manouevre.
The attitude of our EU friends towards us if we decide to leave will be identical to the attitude that the UK government would have had towards Scotland if they had decided to leave the UK: "Sorry to see you go, good luck, we need to discuss arrangements for an orderly departure, don't expect any special favours, and by the way we'll be trying to divert as much financial-services business away from you and towards us".
I don't see how that is any different to now, the only thing that really changes is EUR denominates trades would be synthetically cleared the same as dollar denominated trades are.
Well, to take one obvious example, Goldman Sachs currently has 6,500 staff in the EU. 6,000 of them are in the UK. Without EU passporting, they'll have to beef up their operations somewhere else within the EU. Over time, that will inevitably be at the expense of London.
Or they move clearing to Dublin where they already have a presence along with most of the other US banks. I think the risk is to the EU rather than to us, if they dont give is the financial services passport and the city does move to synthetic clearing then the EU will have a huge unregulated market on their doorstep, one which they have zero oversight over.
Mr. Glenn, on the other hand, the presence of the EU played a role in the annexation of Crimea.
I don't agree with this. It was the prospect of Ukraine being offered NATO membership that forced Putin's hand. You could criticise the EU for not understanding the stakes but this was not the direct cause of what happened.
Mr. NorthWales, I'd like to actually have your position, but I simply don't believe the EU either will try to reform or is even capable of it. It's set on train tracks towards more integration, forever, the only variation being the pace.
If Remain win, I think it'd be the equivalent of Heraclea (the first of Pyrrhus' victories over Rome). If Leave win, some Remainers may try and delay, quibble or plain bugger things up but it's likelier to be settled because Leaving is the boiled egg option.
"I will say this, Hillary Clinton has got to go to jail," Trump told supporters here as he slammed Clinton's foreign policy speech earlier in the day in which Clinton called Trump dangerous and "temperamentally unfit" to be president.
"Folks, honestly, she's guilty as hell," Trump said of the Clinton's use of a private email server during her time as secretary of state.
Trump has previously accused Clinton of breaking federal law, but his comments on Thursday are his most direct call yet for Clinton to face jail time over her use of private email to conduct official State Department affairs.
I don't know. Some Leavers on here have said that Tory Remainers should be hunted 'like rats' by mobs with pitchforks. At least Trump gives a nod to due process.
The attitude of our EU friends towards us if we decide to leave will be identical to the attitude that the UK government would have had towards Scotland if they had decided to leave the UK: "Sorry to see you go, good luck, we need to discuss arrangements for an orderly departure, don't expect any special favours, and by the way we'll be trying to divert as much financial-services business away from you and towards us".
I don't see how that is any different to now, the only thing that really changes is EUR denominates trades would be synthetically cleared the same as dollar denominated trades are.
Well, to take one obvious example, Goldman Sachs currently has 6,500 staff in the EU. 6,000 of them are in the UK. Without EU passporting, they'll have to beef up their operations somewhere else within the EU. Over time, that will inevitably be at the expense of London.
Or they move clearing to Dublin where they already have a presence along with most of the other US banks. I think the risk is to the EU rather than to us, if they dont give is the financial services passport and the city does move to synthetic clearing then the EU will have a huge unregulated market on their doorstep, one which they have zero oversight over.
Does 'on their doorstep' have any meaning when it comes to financial services conducted on digital platforms? If we're out of their jurisdiction we might as well be in south-east Asia as far as they are concerned.
Anyone who hopes things go pear-shaped after a Brexit vote is a cock, quite frankly. Millions of livelihoods are at stake here. If Boris, Nigel and co have called this wrong it won't be the wealthy and the retired (in the UK) who pay the price, it will be average punters and their families.
Who do you think will be doing the negotiating? It won't be this fictional Leave party that some on here seem to think actually exists, it will be HMG with all that entails. The details of the deals will as always be worked out by civil servants and other functionaries. Whoever is PM (which will not be Gove, as he has repeatedly said he doesn't want the job and is not cut out for it, is unlikely to be Boris, as I don't think he will command enough MPS to get on the ballot paper) can set the direction and have a final say (which, as always, will be yes to what the Civil Servants have worked out.
I expect the negotiations to be long, very complicated (far too complex for any politician to handle), with give and take on both sides, mostly conducted in private and ultimately result in a compromise that everyone can live with. There will probably be some public posturing along the way, and probably some dramatic summit meeting at the eleventh hour.
I do not expect that they UK will get everything it wants but nor do I expect economic and financial armageddon. The process will take years, not weeks or months, and I doubt that the full effects will be felt for a decade. By which time so many other things will have happened that unravelling what caused them will be a matter for Historians rather than the interest of politicians.
There are lots of countries in the world, quite prosperous countries too, that trade quite happily with the EU without being a member of it or its single market or having to accept any of its citizens that happen to turn up. I see no reason why the UK should not re-join their ranks. Personally I think the fear thing is overblown.
However, the referendum has not even taken place, so all of this is idle speculation. Mr. Dawning's claim that the Remain cause is doomed may yet prove to be a false alarm. Remember also that Roger, gent of this parish, seems to be saying Leave will win.
Punishing is an emotional, subjective word. The member states will make decisions on what is in their best interests. That may involve insisting on terms that are not to the UK's advantage. If you and other Leavers are right that we hold more cards than The member states, everything will turn out OK. If you are wrong, it won't and a lot of people in the UK will pay the price. That's why I really hope you're right, despite the strong doubts I have that you are. We shall see.
Clearly it's not in the interest of the EU to provide other members incentives to leave. If we leave, we should prepare to be out in the cold.
If the EU can only hold itself together by threatening democratic votes against it and punishing "deserters" then, in the long run, it is doomed.
You are right that it will fail ultimately but the damage caused to the UK and Europe will be immense. The whole thing is a mess and there will be serious economic downsides for everyone, the UK and Europe if we leave and the hatred for the UK within Europe will be deep and prolonged, as both sides shoot themselves in the foot
Sorry, Big G, but I fundamentally disagree with that.
We will have decided the EU isn't for us. That is all.
There will be a few flounces, and then we'll start working out how we can work together like grown ups in future.
I - for one - intend to play a part in that.
Are there any consequences of Brexit that would deter you even if you were persuaded they were likely? Isn't it a matter of absolute principle for you, such that any sacrifice would be worth it?
I'd be deterred if I thought there was a genuine risk of war.
Over what timescale? If 50 years from now there were a major war in Europe that could be traced back to events triggered by Brexit, would that be reason not to do it?
I think that over the course of 50 years, there would be so many variables that it would be very hard to trace the cause of war to Brexit.
Or they move clearing to Dublin where they already have a presence along with most of the other US banks. I think the risk is to the EU rather than to us, if they dont give is the financial services passport and the city does move to synthetic clearing then the EU will have a huge unregulated market on their doorstep, one which they have zero oversight over.
I wonder whether Dublin might grow into more of a rival to the City than Frankfurt, Paris or Milan?
The attitude of our EU friends towards us if we decide to leave will be identical to the attitude that the UK government would have had towards Scotland if they had decided to leave the UK: "Sorry to see you go, good luck, we need to discuss arrangements for an orderly departure, don't expect any special favours, and by the way we'll be trying to divert as much financial-services business away from you and towards us".
I don't see how that is any different to now, the only thing that really changes is EUR denominates trades would be synthetically cleared the same as dollar denominated trades are.
Well, to take one obvious example, Goldman Sachs currently has 6,500 staff in the EU. 6,000 of them are in the UK. Without EU passporting, they'll have to beef up their operations somewhere else within the EU. Over time, that will inevitably be at the expense of London.
Or they move clearing to Dublin where they already have a presence along with most of the other US banks. I think the risk is to the EU rather than to us, if they dont give is the financial services passport and the city does move to synthetic clearing then the EU will have a huge unregulated market on their doorstep, one which they have zero oversight over.
Can you expand on this? I'm pretty unconcerned about the City post-Brexit. It's full of sharp cookies who'll make their own hay as ever.
It is amazing how leave paint a picture that everyone will be friends and trade deals will happen because Europe needs us. Listening to the leaders of Germany, Holland and Spain there is going to be a price to be paid, and we haven't even started on the French.
You reckon France would stay in, then, after Brexit? Already a majority in France want a referendum. That figure will whizz up if Britain votes to leave. The lady of the moment is Marine, who has promised a referendum if she gets the presidency.
Punishing is an emotional, subjective word. The member states will make decisions on what is in their best interests. That may involve insisting on terms that are not to the UK's advantage. If you and other Leavers are right that we hold more cards than The member states, everything will turn out OK. If you are wrong, it won't and a lot of people in the UK will pay the price. That's why I really hope you're right, despite the strong doubts I have that you are. We shall see.
Clearly it's not in the interest of the EU to provide other members incentives to leave. If we leave, we should prepare to be out in the cold.
If the EU can only hold itself together by threatening democratic votes against it and punishing "deserters" then, in the long run, it is doomed.
You are right that it will fail ultimately but the damage caused to the UK and Europe will be immense. The whole thing is a mess and there will be serious economic downsides for everyone, the UK and Europe if we leave and the hatred for the UK within Europe will be deep and prolonged, as both sides shoot themselves in the foot
Sorry, Big G, but I fundamentally disagree with that.
We will have decided the EU isn't for us. That is all.
There will be a few flounces, and then we'll start working out how we can work together like grown ups in future.
I - for one - intend to play a part in that.
Are there any consequences of Brexit that would deter you even if you were persuaded they were likely? Isn't it a matter of absolute principle for you, such that any sacrifice would be worth it?
I'd be deterred if I thought there was a genuine risk of war.
Over what timescale? If 50 years from now there were a major war in Europe that could be traced back to events triggered by Brexit, would that be reason not to do it?
I think that over the course of 50 years, there would be so many variables that it would be very hard to trace the cause of war to Brexit.
If the primary variable were the absence of the EU, it wouldn't be that much of a stretch to lay the blame at the door of Brexit.
But what if, say, France withdrew in 2019 following the election of Marine le Pen? How do you disentangle the effect of a Brexit vote this month with that of the French presidential next year? And those would be two events within one year, never mind fifty.
The attitude of our EU friends towards us if we decide to leave will be identical to the attitude that the UK government would have had towards Scotland if they had decided to leave the UK: "Sorry to see you go, good luck, we need to discuss arrangements for an orderly departure, don't expect any special favours, and by the way we'll be trying to divert as much financial-services business away from you and towards us".
I don't see how that is any different to now, the only thing that really changes is EUR denominates trades would be synthetically cleared the same as dollar denominated trades are.
Well, to take one obvious example, Goldman Sachs currently has 6,500 staff in the EU. 6,000 of them are in the UK. Without EU passporting, they'll have to beef up their operations somewhere else within the EU. Over time, that will inevitably be at the expense of London.
Or they move clearing to Dublin where they already have a presence along with most of the other US banks. I think the risk is to the EU rather than to us, if they dont give is the financial services passport and the city does move to synthetic clearing then the EU will have a huge unregulated market on their doorstep, one which they have zero oversight over.
They will have zero oversight anyway and would have no ability to stop a move to any new kind of financial transaction in the City. What you are suggesting is that the EU retains oversight in return for passporting. Not sure that will play well.
As a Tory voter and supporter of the PM I'm concerned about the aftermath of a Leave vote in electoral terms. Anyone who can keep Labour out of office for 10 years is doing fine as far as I can see. The parallels with the Major years are alarming from a Conservative point of view.
Whether the right of the party like it or not the Cameron brand of the Tory party has appealed to voters in lots of seats they lost last time IDS, Cash et al did their thing. I would be alarmed if I was an incumbent MP in, for example, Richmond, Twickenham, Hazel Grove, Bath etc etc that the spectre of tactical voting could once more rear its ugly head.
I do hope that if Remain wins, however close the vote is, that Tory Leavers will either work with the Government to try and achieve some of what they want from within the EU or leave and join UKIP.
You've put a lot of effort into the sarcasm, but what do you think the effects of Brexit will be in other countries?
I don't understand why people think that EU Governments are going to react in a way that is sensible and beneficial to the UK. Does the history of Europe indicate that this will happen? Following our sticking two fingers up at the rest of Europe (remeber that these Governement are watching what the Leave side are currently saying) I would imagine that they will make life as difficult as possible for the UK and do everything they can to show that the UK was wrong to leave, to ensure that no other Country wants to leave in the future.
To me, that'd show that the UK was right to Leave.
I appreciate others may have a different view.
It is quite clear from a number of Leave posters that they are revelling in the fact that Brexit might cause huge economic problems in the EU and in some cases clearly hoping it destroys it altogether. In those circumstances it should hardly come as a surprise if the other 27 fight back with every means at their disposal.
Or they move clearing to Dublin where they already have a presence along with most of the other US banks. I think the risk is to the EU rather than to us, if they dont give is the financial services passport and the city does move to synthetic clearing then the EU will have a huge unregulated market on their doorstep, one which they have zero oversight over.
I wonder whether Dublin might grow into more of a rival to the City than Frankfurt, Paris or Milan?
Our firm's Brexit analysis identified Dublin as a threat to the financial services sector, especially in light of Brexit plus those rates of corporation tax are very useful for Ireland. Their rate for R&D is something special.
It's an option where we might open an office in the event of Brexit.
Punishing is an emotional, subjective word. The member states will make decisions on what is in their best interests. That may involve insisting on terms that are not to the UK's advantage. If you and other Leavers are right that we hold more cards than The member states, everything will turn out OK. If you are wrong, it won't and a lot of people in the UK will pay the price. That's why I really hope you're right, despite the strong doubts I have that you are. We shall see.
Clearly it's not in the interest of the EU to provide other members incentives to leave. If we leave, we should prepare to be out in the cold.
If the EU can only hold itself together by threatening democratic votes against it and punishing "deserters" then, in the long run, it is doomed.
You are right that it will fail ultimately but the damage caused to the UK and Europe will be immense. The whole thing is a mess and there will be serious economic downsides for everyone, the UK and Europe if we leave and the hatred for the UK within Europe will be deep and prolonged, as both sides shoot themselves in the foot
Sorry, Big G, but I fundamentally disagree with that.
We will have decided the EU isn't for us. That is all.
There will be a few flounces, and then we'll start working out how we can work together like grown ups in future.
I - for one - intend to play a part in that.
Top man.
Thanks.
I've been toying with (dreaming of?) an idea of setting up a new think tank, in recent days, on visions for a new European institutional architecture based on cooperation and collaboration between self-governing liberal democracies, and promoting the same. Prob on a pan-European basis. I'd love to imagine doing it with the most intelligent Leavers on here.
Thing is, I have no money, no time, no idea what's involved, no idea if anyone else is already doing it and no experience.
Be interesting to see, stay or go, just what the Conservatives do to Cameron. It's been a little while since they last defenestrated a leader.
(Long-time lurker and even member; very irregular poster!)
Indeed so. My hunch is we'll get a John Major "off to watch the cricket" moment by Friday lunchtime if Leave wins (especially given his already-stated intention to go this term), but he would presumably still mind the shop until a new leader was elected.
Even if it's a Thatcher "we fight on.. we fight to win" moment instead, he can't possibly give authoritative orders pending a reshuffle and/or acceptance of a new policy by the party, or everyone will wonder if a dozen Tory MPs will bring him down within weeks.
Either way, I don't see it as practically being within his gift to start a negotiating process/trigger Article 50 this month.
If he wins, it'll be interesting to see where the balance of opinion lies in the Tory party. In most circumstances you'd imagine the Leavers would shake his hand and retreat to lick their wounds. But as others have said, there are virtually two parties now, one of whom will never forgive him for Project Fear and using the Civil Service and chums to win.
Miliband Snr is out and about today putting the Remain case.
From where does he source his bananas?
If they are from the Canaries (Spain), the Algarve(Portugal), Martinique (France) or Cyprus then they are subsidised by the EU (that's by you and me, the UK taxpayer).
The Canaries are outside the EU, aren't they?
The outermost regions (OMR) are geographic areas which are part of a European Union Member State, are situated outside of Europe and are fully part of the EU.
They are outside the EU VAT remit though.
Cheers for the reply (and to the others that did) - I knew there was some such special position but, as proven by my ignorance, couldn't remember what it was.
It is quite clear from a number of Leave posters that they are revelling in the fact that Brexit might cause huge economic problems in the EU and in some cases clearly hoping it destroys it altogether. In those circumstances it should hardly come as a surprise if the other 27 fight back with every means at their disposal.
If the EU's as good as you say it is, it should be able to survive a Brexit easily, surely.
Mr. Eagles, I'd hoped the tongue-in-cheek element of that was clear.
And it could be worse. I could be claiming we can control migration within the EU.
It's not Dave's fault George Osborne is so awesome at his job and the economy is booming.
Plus, he did get, an "emergency brake" on migrants' in-work benefits for four years when there are "exceptional" levels of migration. The UK will be able to operate the brake for seven years
Comments
Will there be compromises? Certainly. And no doubt the negotiations will be tough and hard fought. I am comfortable with the parameters of those too.
Others will need to make their own minds up.
- Tariff-free access to the Single Market for manufactured goods (shouldn't be a problem to agree that)
- No customs union
- As much retention of the dismantling of non-tariff barriers for goods as we can manage
- But not part of the Single Market, so a looser arrangement than Norway or Switzerland have
- No freedom of movement
- In return, we'd give up on full access to the Single Market for services, and in particular no longer have 'EU passporting' for financial services. We'd obviously try for as much as we could get on those points, but realistically we're not going to be able to retain our current advantages on those points from a loose deal with the EU.
No, I think it would be delayed as we negotiated new agreements with countries outside the EU. Then we could use the 2 years Article 50 gives us to sort out a deal with EU.
We will have decided the EU isn't for us. That is all.
There will be a few flounces, and then we'll start working out how we can work together like grown ups in future.
I - for one - intend to play a part in that.
If leave loses, they should get rid of Cameron.
Something that could be accepted by both sides as part of the healing process.
Mr. Dawning, you appear to be suggesting Cameron will act vindictively to make it harder for the UK to actually get a good deal.
"Nigel Farage, the leader of Ukip, told LBC this morning that he will lead a flotilla of boats up the Thames to Westminster later this month to call for a Brexit."
"He said: 'On June 15 I will be boarding a small trawler in Southend-on-Sea at 5am, so not much point going to bed really, and we will catch the flood tide, and there will be 60 boats in a flotilla coming up the Thames and we will arrive outside the Palace of Westminster at midday.'"
"'It will be big, visual and dramatic, and the demand will be clear - we want our waters back.'"
Well if it worked for the Sex Pistols - and they only had one boat!
Unfortunately, though, Farage can't hire John Lydon, formerly known as Johhny Rotten, who is strongly pro Remain.
Farage needn't bother with safety pins, but it would be an ace move for him to get himself arrested by the river police. Has he got it in him?
Still that's democracy.
Darren McCaffrey
Should be noted that @JPMorgan has donated £500,000 to the @StrongerIn campaign.
Clearly it's not in the interest of the EU to provide other members incentives to leave. If we leave, we should prepare to be out in the cold.
If the EU can only hold itself together by threatening democratic votes against it and punishing "deserters" then, in the long run, it is doomed.
You are right that it will fail ultimately but the damage caused to the UK and Europe will be immense. The whole thing is a mess and there will be serious economic downsides for everyone, the UK and Europe if we leave and the hatred for the UK within Europe will be deep and prolonged, as both sides shoot themselves in the foot
Sorry, Big G, but I fundamentally disagree with that.
We will have decided the EU isn't for us. That is all.
There will be a few flounces, and then we'll start working out how we can work together like grown ups in future.
I - for one - intend to play a part in that. You might be playing on your own as Europe turns away. It is amazing how leave paint a picture that everyone will be friends and trade deals will happen because Europe needs us. Listening to the leaders of Germany, Holland and Spain there is going to be a price to be paid, and we haven't even started on the French.
Not to mention the likes of the Visegrad Group, who are unlikely to be impressed by the French and Germans trying to bully the disobedient (the QMV to relocate Merkel's migrants has not been a stunning success either in practical or diplomatic terms).
You are right that it will fail ultimately but the damage caused to the UK and Europe will be immense. The whole thing is a mess and there will be serious economic downsides for everyone, the UK and Europe if we leave and the hatred for the UK within Europe will be deep and prolonged, as both sides shoot themselves in the foot
Sorry, Big G, but I fundamentally disagree with that.
We will have decided the EU isn't for us. That is all.
There will be a few flounces, and then we'll start working out how we can work together like grown ups in future.
I - for one - intend to play a part in that. You might be playing on your own as Europe turns away. It is amazing how leave paint a picture that everyone will be friends and trade deals will happen because Europe needs us. Listening to the leaders of Germany, Holland and Spain there is going to be a price to be paid, and we haven't even started on the French.
Ultimately, I don't want to go along with "Be a part of my gang - or else."
"They [E Reform] found 47 per cent of 18-24 year olds say they will definitely vote, compared to 80 per cent of those aged 65 or older - up only slightly from the end of April when the figures were 41 per cent and 76 per cent.
The Society claims this chimes with a general disconnect among young people with the referendum debate, with only 16 per cent of 18-24 year olds saying they felt ‘well informed’ or ‘very well informed’ – compared to 32 per cent of those aged 65 or older." http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/03/eu-referendum-cameron-savaged-in-sky-news-debate-as-voters-revol/#update-20160603-1012
http://edition.cnn.com/2016/06/02/politics/donald-trump-hillary-clinton-imprisoned/
"I will say this, Hillary Clinton has got to go to jail," Trump told supporters here as he slammed Clinton's foreign policy speech earlier in the day in which Clinton called Trump dangerous and "temperamentally unfit" to be president.
"Folks, honestly, she's guilty as hell," Trump said of the Clinton's use of a private email server during her time as secretary of state.
Trump has previously accused Clinton of breaking federal law, but his comments on Thursday are his most direct call yet for Clinton to face jail time over her use of private email to conduct official State Department affairs.
' Do you think it would reasonable and generous to impose a points system for migration and then be outraged when countries affected suggest that they might do the same in return? '
Absolutely reasonable for both sides to have points systems.
That's the basis of controlled immigration versus the current free for all.
I think a trade deal with a nation that the EU has a €150bn surplus is probably going to rank pretty high on the list of priorities. Our import patterns aren't fixed, for every BMW we currently import, we could well switch to importing a Lexus or going domestic with Jaguar.
"Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold ... The best lack all conviction, while the worst are full of passionate intensity" (Yeats).
In the longer term, we would have the ability to negotiate our own trade deals to particularly suit the British economy, which would be advantageous, and our exposure to eurocratic red tape would be limited to business done with the EU (in the same way exporters to the US must conform to US standards, and so forth).
I do agree there's a black-and-white tendency to have woe, doom and death versus the land flowing with milk and honey, but I think the balance is that leaving would be positive.
And that's before we get to matters of accountability, democracy and so forth.
No change there, then.
They are outside the EU VAT remit though.
I appreciate that's not explicit in the case where we still have a nominally-legitimate government in place. But any civil servant given an order by Dave that Friday while Gove is on the phone to Pickfords booking a removals van is surely going to think quite hard about what to do with it?
On the flip-side, nothing that Leave says in the run-up can be construed as a blueprint for what happens thereafter, because (apart from being as clear as mud) their victory doesn't make them the government.
Do you reckon there's off-the-record stuff going on between civil servants and potential Brexiteer PMs? Maybe even Corbyn's lot if they see a GE on the horizon?
I agree that post Brexit the level of free access we will get to the single market will probably be less in services and financial passporting, but I think the effects of this can be exaggerated in impact, will be overset by economic freedoms in other areas and globally, and we will still be able to successfully do business in the EU.
Turning it around, adopting the euro would have made it even 'easier' to trade within the single market due to no exchange rate risk and transaction costs but we calculated (rightly) that the marginal economic benefits in the eurozone were not worth the political cost.
'Cameron's EU negotiations were a theatrical sideshow aiming to appease Tory party when it should've been about best deal for British people'
Mr. Tweed, welcome to the site.
Be interesting to see, stay or go, just what the Conservatives do to Cameron. It's been a little while since they last defenestrated a leader.
I think a better question to ask is why one of its biggest members of over 40 years felt it had no option but to vote Leave.
I don't think a great deal needs to be known about Leave's agenda, or the government's contingency plans, or future Tory leadership candidates' policies. There is little scope for manouevre.
From former keen EUphile Mark Littlewood
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/once-i-bought-into-the-eu-dream-now-im-voting-out-kd6wz5wcq
If Remain win, I think it'd be the equivalent of Heraclea (the first of Pyrrhus' victories over Rome). If Leave win, some Remainers may try and delay, quibble or plain bugger things up but it's likelier to be settled because Leaving is the boiled egg option.
Get lost, boys.
I expect the negotiations to be long, very complicated (far too complex for any politician to handle), with give and take on both sides, mostly conducted in private and ultimately result in a compromise that everyone can live with. There will probably be some public posturing along the way, and probably some dramatic summit meeting at the eleventh hour.
I do not expect that they UK will get everything it wants but nor do I expect economic and financial armageddon. The process will take years, not weeks or months, and I doubt that the full effects will be felt for a decade. By which time so many other things will have happened that unravelling what caused them will be a matter for Historians rather than the interest of politicians.
There are lots of countries in the world, quite prosperous countries too, that trade quite happily with the EU without being a member of it or its single market or having to accept any of its citizens that happen to turn up. I see no reason why the UK should not re-join their ranks. Personally I think the fear thing is overblown.
However, the referendum has not even taken place, so all of this is idle speculation. Mr. Dawning's claim that the Remain cause is doomed may yet prove to be a false alarm. Remember also that Roger, gent of this parish, seems to be saying Leave will win.
We saw all this fretting over the Euro.
And it could be worse. I could be claiming we can control migration within the EU.
A friend has just bought some Dublin property.
Very shrewd move.
Whether the right of the party like it or not the Cameron brand of the Tory party has appealed to voters in lots of seats they lost last time IDS, Cash et al did their thing. I would be alarmed if I was an incumbent MP in, for example, Richmond, Twickenham, Hazel Grove, Bath etc etc that the spectre of tactical voting could once more rear its ugly head.
I do hope that if Remain wins, however close the vote is, that Tory Leavers will either work with the Government to try and achieve some of what they want from within the EU or leave and join UKIP.
To me, that'd show that the UK was right to Leave.
I appreciate others may have a different view.
It is quite clear from a number of Leave posters that they are revelling in the fact that Brexit might cause huge economic problems in the EU and in some cases clearly hoping it destroys it altogether. In those circumstances it should hardly come as a surprise if the other 27 fight back with every means at their disposal.
It's an option where we might open an office in the event of Brexit.
I've been toying with (dreaming of?) an idea of setting up a new think tank, in recent days, on visions for a new European institutional architecture based on cooperation and collaboration between self-governing liberal democracies, and promoting the same. Prob on a pan-European basis. I'd love to imagine doing it with the most intelligent Leavers on here.
Thing is, I have no money, no time, no idea what's involved, no idea if anyone else is already doing it and no experience.
But I've been thinking of it all the same.
Indeed so. My hunch is we'll get a John Major "off to watch the cricket" moment by Friday lunchtime if Leave wins (especially given his already-stated intention to go this term), but he would presumably still mind the shop until a new leader was elected.
Even if it's a Thatcher "we fight on.. we fight to win" moment instead, he can't possibly give authoritative orders pending a reshuffle and/or acceptance of a new policy by the party, or everyone will wonder if a dozen Tory MPs will bring him down within weeks.
Either way, I don't see it as practically being within his gift to start a negotiating process/trigger Article 50 this month.
If he wins, it'll be interesting to see where the balance of opinion lies in the Tory party. In most circumstances you'd imagine the Leavers would shake his hand and retreat to lick their wounds. But as others have said, there are virtually two parties now, one of whom will never forgive him for Project Fear and using the Civil Service and chums to win.
If the EU's as good as you say it is, it should be able to survive a Brexit easily, surely.
Plus, he did get, an "emergency brake" on migrants' in-work benefits for four years when there are "exceptional" levels of migration. The UK will be able to operate the brake for seven years
If Aurelian returned he'd run out of Europe to conquer by Thursday.