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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » What should the losers do next on 24 June?
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » What should the losers do next on 24 June?
The way forward for Remain if they lose is straightforward, even if it is unpalatable to them. It will be time to give up. There should be no talk of reruns, no attempts to finesse the negotiations to frustrate the public will. Remain has issued untold warnings about the risks of voting to Leave and if the majority still wish to run those risks, their wishes should be respected. That’s dem…
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One thing I wonder... if Leave wins- then there are decisions to be made about what sort of an arrangement to pursue. How great a priority should be placed on immigration vs. economy etc...
Should Remainers in say the Conservative party still have a substantial say in those decisions? Having lost the main argument- it could be taken very badly if for instance, they prevented Leavers securing the deal they want and pushed them into a different deal...
They 're quite simply drunk on power. Like a break-out in a Latin American prison they've killed all the authority they've drunk all the liquor and have no idea what to do next. If only like Fletcher Christian after the mutiny they could find an island to slink off to but there isn't one. These poisonous characters are going to be with us for years.
Who'd have thought that within 18 months of winning a majority this Conservative government would have reduced us to this? A good artice Alastair but I think you underestimate the fall out.
In practice Leave would look for another casus belli. The main lesson to take home would be that in the case of a future referendum, they would need to have the government campaigning for Leave.
One thing is for sure. Whichever side wins, the other will be shouting "told you so" every time something bad happens in future.
Is this thread about topping oneself? TOPPING will be pleased!
The main news stories this morning focus on the heckling and criticism of scaremongering.
Unlike Blair/ Brown and Labours theatrics of course. Even when having promised a vote they then quietly slunk through the stage door to sign up to the same pantomime that was just given a different name.
Boo / hiss....
The idea of rejoining the EU at some later date is conceivable, but it would only happen in my lifetime if the experiment of leaving proved a dismal failure. Quite apart from anything else, the EU would not be in a hurry to repeat the experiment (as, again, I note explicitly in the article). We would not rejoin on favourable terms. I would not be campaigning for it - EU membership is not the Hokey Cokey.
They also need to pursue the government for proper plans for matched intakes of midwives, doctors, teachers etc from eastern and southern europe in line with population increases.
Immigration grievances need to be focused on the non-EU numbers, There appear to be something like 160,000 work related arrivals who are not on high skilled visas, for example.
If Remain lose, they need to stop running the country down and be open to trade deals.
I am having my first wobble on this, and it's all thanks to Corbyn.
A Brexit UK run by a Corbyn does not bear thinking about.
Would we rejoin the EU proper? Not for a generation, but not impossible. Just as no government can bind its successors no referendum can either.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/02/i-know-waffling-when-i-see-it-david-cameron-takes-a-brexit-roast/
"Mr Islam wanted to talk about immigration. Mr Cameron, however, wanted to talk about the economy. Every time he was asked about immigration, he changed the subject as swiftly as possible. He brought up the single market 10 times in the first 10 minutes – even though he hadn’t been asked about it... The studio audience didn’t think much of him, and he knew it.
It was no disaster. But if you wondered why Mr Cameron didn’t fancy a proper debate: now you know."
Another, to me, is that other countries will be determined to damage us, in order to deter anyone else from leaving the EU.
Basically on June 24th the EU says goodbye to its Boxer and Clover.
If LEAVE lose, the party will not come back easily because of the way the campaign from him was run and his role as front man. He forgot the example set by Harold Wilson. Therefore unless Cameron puts in his cabinet a majority of LEAVErs and demotes Osborne the turmoil will continue.
It's almost always impossible to stop these 'revolutions' from rapidly spreading from country to country as well.
Anecdote from the front line. I attended a public EU Ref debate last night here in East Mids. On a straw poll Leave won the audience vote. Sort of reasonable arguments from panel on both sides, although Leave guys still sticking to the ridiculous £350m a week figure.
What took me aback, although it probably shouldn't have, was the level of anger and boorishness from Leavers in the crowd. Even before the first Remain chap had finished a sentence in his opening remarks people were yelling out 'rubbish' and 'lies'. This continued off and on most of the evening. I had a fair few UKIP supporters sat around me and they kept up a steady stream of muttering, chuntering and occasionally shouting out at every debating point. At times I couldn't hear the main debate.
There is a possibility that at least amongst the right-wing Tories immigration has merely been exploited to try and win the Referendum, ends justifying the means etc. If so then will they try to wriggle out of it afterwards? In about a years's time are we going to get something along the lines of "We really tried hard to get a deal with no freedom of movement but in the end we had to put the future prosperity of the UK first?"
In other words will the anti-immigration lobby ultimately get sold out? It is vital that Leavers run the negotiations so that they can't try to shift the blame for the outcome.
What would be the consequences if that happens, a lot of angry anti-immigration voters certainly but also I would feel as though Leave had won on a false prospectus. Although I think it is wrong-headed to go CO I think Leave have killed off any other option by running the style of campaign they have.
The biggest issues would be for Ireland and Scotland.
A smoother operator peddling the same tripe and with the same core beliefs.
For Tories I suppose this makes sense but for non Tories being governed by the EU -even if that is the reality which it isn't-would be infinitely preferable to any Tory governement led by Gove Boris IDS or Patel
25-30% of left wing voters find the prospect sufficiently appealing to support Brexit.
I don't want to be part of any 'club' that doesn't take its members grievances seriously when they are thinking of leaving, threatens them with consequences when they are weighing up their minds, or follows through on some of those threats when they do leave.
I will not be bullied.
Only saw bits of the Cameron appearance on Sky. Did see him getting laughed at over World War Three. He reacted badly, should've derided the idea (I never said that [having removed it overnight...]) but said it would decrease stability.
Serving two year's notice could conceivably wait until as late as early 2018.
There would obviously need to be a period of transition from Cameron to new leadership and the new leadership should be the ones who serve the notice.
As someone said the other day, this referendum is quite an eye-opener in terms of people finding some common ground.
Who would have thought that Corbyn and Cameron would be on the same side, or that Galloway and Boris would?
It does seem strange that following a Leave vote at least some PB Leavers want to prolong the discussions for years. I suppose it allows us Remainers time to enjoy the 4 freedoms a little longer.
The Tory party needs to decide internally what its position is. If Remain win and that is the position chosen by the party then those who want to be elected on its ticket need to commit to that for the foreseeable future. If they feel they cannot do that they need to move on. The same applies if Leave wins. The civil war in the Tory party that has been raging since at least 1992 is being resolved at considerable public expense. It cannot be allowed to go on past the 24th.
Whether either wing, in the event it is successful, can command a majority in the country is another matter but it cannot be ruled out as long as Corbyn is the opposition.
That's factually wrong. It's even more wrong than the highly misleading Turkish poster from Leave (Turkey is in the process of joining, but it's taking a very long time).
Edited extra bit: there's also an obvious follow-up question.
If we can control immigration in the EU, why hasn't Cameron hit his target?
One camp will say 'good riddance', push for punitive measures against the UK, and further integration within the EU, with any country blocking it accused of acting like the UK.
The other camp will call for some soul-searching. 'How could we lose?' They'll conclude that 'the UK had legitimate grievances we neglected', and use this to push for crowd-pleasing reforms they already want to make.
Which way will the various major European politicians jump? Could a Remain defeat be enough for any of them to lose a close election?
I'd think we might have something like a six month period of leadership transition, reflection and foundation setting.
Once the vote is done, there are other interested trade parties aside from the EU.
I also agree that if we Remain Leavers need to turn to constructively trying to reform the EU. They will not be alone in the EU if they do
There is a slim chance that a very narrow win for Remain might act as a wake up call and prompt reform along these lines, but I think it's more likely that Brussels will see it as an endorsement of More Europe, and that's why the issue won't go away.
I think your last point is very likely, people blithely believing the other 27 will take a benign view of a post-Brexit UK and give us a great trade deal without and FOM are going to be in for quite a surprise in my view. Do not expect the response to be rational
What I find most striking is the shrugging off of scare stories. Right at the beginning - they worked a bit, now the public just go Meh. Some risks are considered worth taking, marginal changes to one's circumstances accepted, big claims automatically discounted...
I'm feeling quite impressed by our innate national commonsense.
Remain has overdone the scare stories (surprised it took mocking headlines for Cameron to tone down his "We're all going to die" speech). Now everything it says it viewed through a prism of bullshit brown.
That said, the polls are essentially tied, and we know how the General Election went.
I have a shrewd suspicion that Labour will let the Tories pick a right-wing leader in the belief that anyone will beat Corbyn and then switch to a lefty with more appeal than Corbyn before 2020.
I'm amazed that Leavers don't notice that other countries' governments have their own electorates to consider. Not to mention that it is entirely rational at an EU level to strongly encourage team players and discourage loose cannons.
Yes, they do have their electorates to consider, which is why they will likely have the good sense not to engage in a damaging trade war.
The more intelligent continental EU politicians and apparatchiks will realise they didn't seriously engage with British concerns in the event of a Leave vote.
However, the message of a narrow Remain vote will fall on tin ears, IMHO.
Next one is pro-Remain but always has been. Cameron hasn't swayed him at all. He voted In in the 70s.
If Mr Gove can get through that then Leave will win.
I have been following the EU's ongoing spat with Switzerland with some interest. Their method is to refuse to discuss anything that Switzerland brings to the table, but not to escalate their own grievances. They are very passive and content to let the stalemate continue in the belief, I assume, that the other side will be more anxious to break the stalemate them they are.
If Leave lose, they have two options: either say "the British people have for the second time taken politicians at their word that we are not committed to the centralisation process of ever closer union - we'll be watching, and if they turn out to have lied again as they did in 1975 they will not allow it to happpen a third time" -- or they say "the British people have accepted membership in the European Union that has ever closer union at its core - we should therefore pursue full membership including of the eurozone and Schengen and then put these terms to the public for ratification".