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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » What should the losers do next on 24 June?

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  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 57,303
    OllyT said:

    Sean_F said:

    chestnut said:

    If Leave lose they need to reinvent themselves as EU Reformers. If we are In we must make the thing work better.

    They also need to pursue the government for proper plans for matched intakes of midwives, doctors, teachers etc from eastern and southern europe in line with population increases.

    Immigration grievances need to be focused on the non-EU numbers, There appear to be something like 160,000 work related arrivals who are not on high skilled visas, for example.

    If Remain lose, they need to stop running the country down and be open to trade deals.

    I am having my first wobble on this, and it's all thanks to Corbyn.

    A Brexit UK run by a Corbyn does not bear thinking about.

    Well, that is one potential Brexit risk.

    Another, to me, is that other countries will be determined to damage us, in order to deter anyone else from leaving the EU.

    I think your last point is very likely, people blithely believing the other 27 will take a benign view of a post-Brexit UK and give us a great trade deal without and FOM are going to be in for quite a surprise in my view. Do not expect the response to be rational
    One thing to note, though, is that an exit deal using article 50 only requires QMV rather than unanimity amongst all remaining 27 members.

    In this sense it's easier than securing treaty change inside the EU for the UK, which would require unanimity.
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    chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    edited June 2016
    Why do people continue to talk as though there are only 27 other nations on earth?

    There is a deal with Canada (equivalent GDP to 14 EU nations) sitting around at the moment, waiting to be signed off.

    http://ca.reuters.com/article/businessNews/idCAKCN0YO2CL

    It is only our involvement in the EU that is stopping it.
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    CD13CD13 Posts: 6,355
    There was the potential for a reasonable discussion once over the EU. That's gone now for good.

    Remain have some good points. The economic argument is effective, but only so far. We can't leave because it will cost us money. Golden handcuffs.

    Then the argument turn rancid. The two-pronged attack consists of .... Leavers are all racists and therefore should be ignored, followed by ... "I am a most superior person. My cheeks are pink, my hair is sleek,: I dine at Blenheim once a week." The leave camp are ignorant thickos and can be ignored. Copyright Emily Thornberry. Or "the problem is old, white men."

    A constructive tone such as "We can work with our partners to address these concerns" or "The EU, like all organisations, changes over time to meet new demands. We can and will be part of that." will no longer work unfortunately. When you've poisoned the well of trust by relying on insults, it will take time to heal those wounds.

    Leaving will start World War Three, apart from being nonsense, also suggests that you believe your opponents are terminally stupid.

    Unfortunately, Lord Curzon is alive and well.

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    RogerRoger Posts: 19,300
    edited June 2016
    I'm beginning to think we should Leave. We owe it to our cultured cousins in the EU to spare them having to put up with us any longer than they have to.

    Just reading half a dozen posters on this site tells you what kind of neigbours the poor buggers have been having to live with.
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    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    weejonnie said:

    Leave have one hurdle to clear tonight - but it's a biggie - "You claim that we send £350 million a week to the EU - however half of that actually never leaves the UK thanks to our rebate. Haven't you been highly misleading in your campaign?"

    If Mr Gove can get through that then Leave will win.

    I noticed the Leave team have included the black box of red tape/regulation/business costs to the mix to blur it all up. I expect Gove to get it thrown at him. Hope he's prepared.

    In the overall scheme of things - it's peripheral IMO, it's the impact of immigration on public services and the constant frustration over deportations, law and order, security issues etc that count. There's over 4000 EU prisoners in our gaols now. We've been terrible at getting rid of them.
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,411
    weejonnie said:

    Leave have one hurdle to clear tonight - but it's a biggie - "You claim that we send £350 million a week to the EU - however half of that actually never leaves the UK thanks to our rebate. Haven't you been highly misleading in your campaign?"

    If Mr Gove can get through that then Leave will win.

    The Rebate is worth £60m a week. So, £290m would be the fairest figure to use.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,162
    Mr. Roger, you aren't the descendent of Lady Whiteadder, are you?

    *slap* *slap*

    Wicked child! Leaving the EU is the work of Beelzebub! For the Devil saw the wonder of peace, and created Nigel Farage to end it!
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    One thing I haven't seen is any prediction of the effect of Brexit on EU or Eurozone economic growth. Do such growth rates move from dire to direr? Anyway, if it's Brexit, my guess is that the mood in Brussels will be gloomy. The EU Budget is going to be a major headache. They'll be (privately) asking questions like "Why didn't we make more effort to keep the Brits sweet"
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 52,080
    Roger said:

    I'm beginning to think we should Leave. We owe it to our cultured cousins in the EU to spare them having to put up with us any longer than they have to.

    Just reading half a dozen posters on this site tells you what kind of neigbours the poor buggers have been having to live with.

    I genuinely think that Brexit is in the best interests of the EU. The EZ need to integrate further but in a way that retains some sort of democratic oversight of their fiscal policy as well as regaining democratic oversight of their monetary policy. That is not really possible in an EU where one of the largest members is determined not to join the Euro and is anxious about what that integration will mean. We need to get out of their road.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 118,281
    Wanderer said:

    The thing about any Brexit deal is that it has to get through Parliament. That looks a big ask to me if there is no GE first.

    Indeed. However it may be even harder after a GE. There's no guarantee that an election would produce a bigger Conservative majority or any majority at all.
    UKIP would stay active after a Leave vote until a Brexit deal is done
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,411
    Roger said:

    I'm beginning to think we should Leave. We owe it to our cultured cousins in the EU to spare them having to put up with us any longer than they have to.

    Just reading half a dozen posters on this site tells you what kind of neigbours the poor buggers have been having to live with.

    Our cultured cousins who vote FN, FPO, Jobbik, Syriza etc.?
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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 24,425

    Sean_F said:

    malcolmg said:

    Sean_F said:

    chestnut said:

    If Leave lose they need to reinvent themselves as EU Reformers. If we are In we must make the thing work better.

    They also need to pursue the government for proper plans for matched intakes of midwives, doctors, teachers etc from eastern and southern europe in line with population increases.

    Immigration grievances need to be focused on the non-EU numbers, There appear to be something like 160,000 work related arrivals who are not on high skilled visas, for example.

    If Remain lose, they need to stop running the country down and be open to trade deals.

    I am having my first wobble on this, and it's all thanks to Corbyn.

    A Brexit UK run by a Corbyn does not bear thinking about.

    Well, that is one potential Brexit risk.

    Another, to me, is that other countries will be determined to damage us, in order to deter anyone else from leaving the EU.
    They will be too concerned about all the goods they sell us drying up and beggaring them.
    People don't always act rationally. There may be a good deal of bitterness and spite aimed at us in the event of a Brexit vote.
    I'm amazed that Leavers don't notice that other countries' governments have their own electorates to consider. Not to mention that it is entirely rational at an EU level to strongly encourage team players and discourage loose cannons.
    And that's the problem. It's homogenous, it's conformity, it's forced. Europe has always been at it's best when diverse. Messy of course, but messy leads to innovation, creativity, renewal.
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    JamesMJamesM Posts: 221
    Morning all,

    On the issue of Article 50, I may have misheard last night but I didn't think the Prime Minister was quite as decisive in claiming he would invoke it straight away in the event of an Out vote. I think it was Faisal Islam who mentioned the European Council meeting the following Monday. Maybe someone has a better memory than me, but I did at the time notice a little backtracking from Cameron there.

    On topic both sides must accept the result. I laid out my views on a Remain vote - we Leavers campaign to ensure Cameron's deal is negotiated in full, albeit with a few possible tweaks around the Eurozone/EU relationship. We reinvigorate efforts for reform from within looking out for opportunities in future Council meetings by providing the government with more clear-cut options e.g. reducing formally ECJ influence on us. We develop a clearer vision of what Leaving may look like for the shelf in case it is needed. We work to reduce UK reliance on any one state/group of states economically. But fundamentally we accept the result; the public will have voted for a negotiated EU 'special' relationship and I would imagine only with a manifesto pledge for another referendum and/or a policy to leave the EU from a political party that then wins a General Election would this come up again in the short to medium term.
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    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    CD13 said:

    There was the potential for a reasonable discussion once over the EU. That's gone now for good.

    Remain have some good points. The economic argument is effective, but only so far. We can't leave because it will cost us money. Golden handcuffs.

    Then the argument turn rancid. The two-pronged attack consists of .... Leavers are all racists and therefore should be ignored, followed by ... "I am a most superior person. My cheeks are pink, my hair is sleek,: I dine at Blenheim once a week." The leave camp are ignorant thickos and can be ignored. Copyright Emily Thornberry. Or "the problem is old, white men."

    A constructive tone such as "We can work with our partners to address these concerns" or "The EU, like all organisations, changes over time to meet new demands. We can and will be part of that." will no longer work unfortunately. When you've poisoned the well of trust by relying on insults, it will take time to heal those wounds.

    Leaving will start World War Three, apart from being nonsense, also suggests that you believe your opponents are terminally stupid.

    Unfortunately, Lord Curzon is alive and well.

    That a few Remainers on here use such lines of abuse totally perplexes me. We're all pretty smart and pretty liberal in our views. Yet insults and innuendos of racism, xenophobia, inferiority and stupidity abound.

    It's just weird.
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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 24,425
    Roger said:

    I'm beginning to think we should Leave. We owe it to our cultured cousins in the EU to spare them having to put up with us any longer than they have to.

    Just reading half a dozen posters on this site tells you what kind of neigbours the poor buggers have been having to live with.

    Who are these cultured cousins. Ever spent a few weeks in the Limousin ? It's lock up your daughter's livestock down there.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,162
    Hope Mr. W's recovering. His tip on Thiem for the French Open has reached the semis (plays Djokovic, alas).

    Got to be off for a bit. Boiler's on the blink.
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    currystarcurrystar Posts: 1,171

    Sean_F said:

    DavidL said:

    As I have been saying over the last week or so win or lose we will effectively have minority government in this country. No conceivable Conservative leader, whether it is Cameron staggering on after a win or a Leave replacement if he loses will command a majority in the House of Commons.

    The Tory party needs to decide internally what its position is. If Remain win and that is the position chosen by the party then those who want to be elected on its ticket need to commit to that for the foreseeable future. If they feel they cannot do that they need to move on. The same applies if Leave wins. The civil war in the Tory party that has been raging since at least 1992 is being resolved at considerable public expense. It cannot be allowed to go on past the 24th.

    Whether either wing, in the event it is successful, can command a majority in the country is another matter but it cannot be ruled out as long as Corbyn is the opposition.

    What do British voters want? Not, ideally, to leave the EU, but to have the EU do less, and return powers to member States, with some degree of control of immigration. I expect that this attitude is mirrored in Scandinavia, and perhaps Italy and France.

    There is a slim chance that a very narrow win for Remain might act as a wake up call and prompt reform along these lines, but I think it's more likely that Brussels will see it as an endorsement of More Europe, and that's why the issue won't go away.
    All of this.

    The more intelligent continental EU politicians and apparatchiks will realise they didn't seriously engage with British concerns in the event of a Leave vote.

    However, the message of a narrow Remain vote will fall on tin ears, IMHO.
    The glorious naivity of some posts on here is wornderful, the level of apparent knowledge of how foreign governemnts are going to react to the UK leaving is laughable.
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    LadyBucketLadyBucket Posts: 590
    I shall refrain from watching SKY until 8pm this evening. I'm sure they will be/are already running every single minute of last night. I thought the young woman (who has now had her five minutes of fame) was bloody rude. I still believe good manners are important, as I very firmly told a group of youngsters who virtually pushed me off the train yesterday, which could have resulted in a nasty accident.

    Anyway, as a Leaver, but still supportive of the PM, I am incredibly sad and disappointed that he has now lost his authority. This was quite evident last night, and once lost, will never be regained. He looks completely knackered, which just confirms that he and No 10 were hoping Boris would front the Remain campaign and the PM could stay on the side lines. It says a lot about the lack of authoritative figures in this country, that there was no-one else with a personality big enough to front this campaign.

    I have a feeling Michael Gove is going to do better than some people expect. He has the advantage of going second and won't be "rushed", which is a trap the PM always falls into.

    Anyway I shall sign off for the rest of the day you will be pleased to hear but I can't wait for this referendum to be over (whatever the result!).
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    RogerRoger Posts: 19,300
    chestnut said:

    Why do people continue to talk as though there are only 27 other nations on earth?

    There is a deal with Canada (equivalent GDP to 14 EU nations) sitting around at the moment, waiting to be signed off.

    http://ca.reuters.com/article/businessNews/idCAKCN0YO2CL

    It is only our involvement in the EU that is stopping it.

    Is it a party trick using silly statistics? Why not say a deal with Canada with a GDP significantly less than that of Italy?
  • Options
    currystarcurrystar Posts: 1,171

    I shall refrain from watching SKY until 8pm this evening. I'm sure they will be/are already running every single minute of last night. I thought the young woman (who has now had her five minutes of fame) was bloody rude. I still believe good manners are important, as I very firmly told a group of youngsters who virtually pushed me off the train yesterday, which could have resulted in a nasty accident.

    Anyway, as a Leaver, but still supportive of the PM, I am incredibly sad and disappointed that he has now lost his authority. This was quite evident last night, and once lost, will never be regained. He looks completely knackered, which just confirms that he and No 10 were hoping Boris would front the Remain campaign and the PM could stay on the side lines. It says a lot about the lack of authoritative figures in this country, that there was no-one else with a personality big enough to front this campaign.

    I have a feeling Michael Gove is going to do better than some people expect. He has the advantage of going second and won't be "rushed", which is a trap the PM always falls into.

    Anyway I shall sign off for the rest of the day you will be pleased to hear but I can't wait for this referendum to be over (whatever the result!).

    Rememeber she is an English literature student so knows everything
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    Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    edited June 2016
    Sean_F said:

    chestnut said:

    If Leave lose they need to reinvent themselves as EU Reformers. If we are In we must make the thing work better.

    They also need to pursue the government for proper plans for matched intakes of midwives, doctors, teachers etc from eastern and southern europe in line with population increases.

    Immigration grievances need to be focused on the non-EU numbers, There appear to be something like 160,000 work related arrivals who are not on high skilled visas, for example.

    If Remain lose, they need to stop running the country down and be open to trade deals.

    I am having my first wobble on this, and it's all thanks to Corbyn.

    A Brexit UK run by a Corbyn does not bear thinking about.

    Well, that is one potential Brexit risk.

    Another, to me, is that other countries will be determined to damage us, in order to deter anyone else from leaving the EU.
    That effectively makes the EU a protection racket which off course it now is. ( it wasn't at the start)

    "Give us your money and your good but if you leave we will send the boys round and smash your Windows"
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    CD13CD13 Posts: 6,355
    Roger,

    "We owe it to our cultured cousins in the EU to spare them having to put up with us any longer than they have to."

    Brilliant.

    "My name is Roger, I am a toff.
    To me, the plebs, their caps should doff.
    I live in Europe, on and off.
    And you, the Brits, can all f**k off."
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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 24,425
    currystar said:

    Sean_F said:

    DavidL said:

    As I have been saying over the last week or so win or lose we will effectively have minority government in this country. No conceivable Conservative leader, whether it is Cameron staggering on after a win or a Leave replacement if he loses will command a majority in the House of Commons.

    The Tory party needs to decide internally what its position is. If Remain win and that is the position chosen by the party then those who want to be elected on its ticket need to commit to that for the foreseeable future. If they feel they cannot do that they need to move on. The same applies if Leave wins. The civil war in the Tory party that has been raging since at least 1992 is being resolved at considerable public expense. It cannot be allowed to go on past the 24th.

    Whether either wing, in the event it is successful, can command a majority in the country is another matter but it cannot be ruled out as long as Corbyn is the opposition.

    What do British voters want? Not, ideally, to leave the EU, but to have the EU do less, and return powers to member States, with some degree of control of immigration. I expect that this attitude is mirrored in Scandinavia, and perhaps Italy and France.

    There is a slim chance that a very narrow win for Remain might act as a wake up call and prompt reform along these lines, but I think it's more likely that Brussels will see it as an endorsement of More Europe, and that's why the issue won't go away.
    All of this.

    The more intelligent continental EU politicians and apparatchiks will realise they didn't seriously engage with British concerns in the event of a Leave vote.

    However, the message of a narrow Remain vote will fall on tin ears, IMHO.
    The glorious naivity of some posts on here is wornderful, the level of apparent knowledge of how foreign governemnts are going to react to the UK leaving is laughable.
    They'll be too busy declaring war on us to notice. That or managing their own peasants revolts.
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    dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,294
    This might be interesting re politicians and drink.

    https://twitter.com/BBCBenWright/status/738434942087102464
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    asjohnstoneasjohnstone Posts: 1,276
    edited June 2016
    The day after a leave vote, no matter how narrow, there are no "remainers" only former remainers who will quickly adapt to the new reality. In 1910 there was a strong unionist party in southern ireland, by 1920 it didn't exist.

    They have no cause, there will be no "let's get back in" groupings, for leavers post defeat, it's in there mind, it's just another step on the long march to eventual victory
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,523
    JamesM said:

    Morning all,

    On the issue of Article 50, I may have misheard last night but I didn't think the Prime Minister was quite as decisive in claiming he would invoke it straight away in the event of an Out vote. I think it was Faisal Islam who mentioned the European Council meeting the following Monday. Maybe someone has a better memory than me, but I did at the time notice a little backtracking from Cameron there.

    He said we should invoke Article 50, but he did not say when .
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    PlatoSaid said:

    I noticed the Leave team have included the black box of red tape/regulation/business costs to the mix to blur it all up. I expect Gove to get it thrown at him. Hope he's prepared.

    Boris made a bit of a mess of that one.

    @rowenamason: Boris moans at EU requiring sheep with 2 teeth to be slaughtered in certain way. The laws stop scrapie-infected tissue entering food chain.
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    MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    Roger said:

    I'm beginning to think we should Leave. We owe it to our cultured cousins in the EU to spare them having to put up with us any longer than they have to.

    Just reading half a dozen posters on this site tells you what kind of neigbours the poor buggers have been having to live with.

    You're right. It isn't called the Perfidious Albion without reason. Bad apple UK has to go.
  • Options
    weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820

    I shall refrain from watching SKY until 8pm this evening. I'm sure they will be/are already running every single minute of last night. I thought the young woman (who has now had her five minutes of fame) was bloody rude. I still believe good manners are important, as I very firmly told a group of youngsters who virtually pushed me off the train yesterday, which could have resulted in a nasty accident.

    Anyway, as a Leaver, but still supportive of the PM, I am incredibly sad and disappointed that he has now lost his authority. This was quite evident last night, and once lost, will never be regained. He looks completely knackered, which just confirms that he and No 10 were hoping Boris would front the Remain campaign and the PM could stay on the side lines. It says a lot about the lack of authoritative figures in this country, that there was no-one else with a personality big enough to front this campaign.

    I have a feeling Michael Gove is going to do better than some people expect. He has the advantage of going second and won't be "rushed", which is a trap the PM always falls into.

    Anyway I shall sign off for the rest of the day you will be pleased to hear but I can't wait for this referendum to be over (whatever the result!).

    If it's rude to interrupt (and it is) then all politicians and interviewers are rude (Mind you it is funny how they seem to be extra rude to centre-right politicians). So it is basically a case of the biter-bit.
  • Options
    Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    Red box

    Just half of young people say they will 'definitely vote' on June 23
    By Natasha Clark

    Young people are less well informed and are less likely to vote in the EU referendum, just three weeks before the country takes to the polls.

    New polling from BMG research shows that only 16 per cent of 18 to 24-year-olds feel well informed or very well informed about the referendum, and 47 per cent said they would definitely be voting.

    This compares with 80 per cent of the over-65 bracket who say they would definitely be casting their ballot; 32 per cent of them said they feel informed.

    http://www.thetimes.co.uk/redbox/topic/the-europe-question/only-half-of-young-people-say-they-will-definitely-vote-in-eu-referendum
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    RogerRoger Posts: 19,300
    edited June 2016
    Sean_F said:

    Roger said:

    I'm beginning to think we should Leave. We owe it to our cultured cousins in the EU to spare them having to put up with us any longer than they have to.

    Just reading half a dozen posters on this site tells you what kind of neigbours the poor buggers have been having to live with.

    Our cultured cousins who vote FN, FPO, Jobbik, Syriza etc.?
    There is such a whiff around here that we are inately superior to those other countries in the EU. I work in many of them and for many of them in a profession where the UK actually excels and it couldn't be further from the truth. I would like us to leave if only to force our populaion into a reality check.
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    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    tlg86 said:

    JamesM said:

    Morning all,

    On the issue of Article 50, I may have misheard last night but I didn't think the Prime Minister was quite as decisive in claiming he would invoke it straight away in the event of an Out vote. I think it was Faisal Islam who mentioned the European Council meeting the following Monday. Maybe someone has a better memory than me, but I did at the time notice a little backtracking from Cameron there.

    He said we should invoke Article 50, but he did not say when .
    I was sure I heard him respond to Faisal's question. "28th June" "Yes"
  • Options
    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,412
    Good article, and hard to argue with. A practical question - in Mike's absence, what email address should article submissions be sent to? I have one which I think will be of some interest.
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Where does this delusion come from that Cameron was ever anything but a Europhile?
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 21,191
    edited June 2016

    BBC top story on the website is Cameron claiming we can control immigration in the EU.

    That's factually wrong. It's even more wrong than the highly misleading Turkish poster from Leave (Turkey is in the process of joining, but it's taking a very long time).

    Edited extra bit: there's also an obvious follow-up question.

    If we can control immigration in the EU, why hasn't Cameron hit his target?

    Cameron was on the hook and wriggling over Immigration. It was quite obvious that he had no answer to the questions being put to him and really wanted to say that "immigration in the hundreds of thousands was a price worth paying" but dare not.

    Which is a reasonable position except he campaigned last year on a manifesto the pledged to curb immigration to tens of thousands.

    Same thing with Sadiq Khan. A couple of weeks ago he was claiming Khan was a terrorist sympathizer then he was going out campaigning with him...

    Cameron is a complete and utter busted flush. Who on Earth would believe a word this man says?
  • Options
    weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    currystar said:

    I shall refrain from watching SKY until 8pm this evening. I'm sure they will be/are already running every single minute of last night. I thought the young woman (who has now had her five minutes of fame) was bloody rude. I still believe good manners are important, as I very firmly told a group of youngsters who virtually pushed me off the train yesterday, which could have resulted in a nasty accident.

    Anyway, as a Leaver, but still supportive of the PM, I am incredibly sad and disappointed that he has now lost his authority. This was quite evident last night, and once lost, will never be regained. He looks completely knackered, which just confirms that he and No 10 were hoping Boris would front the Remain campaign and the PM could stay on the side lines. It says a lot about the lack of authoritative figures in this country, that there was no-one else with a personality big enough to front this campaign.

    I have a feeling Michael Gove is going to do better than some people expect. He has the advantage of going second and won't be "rushed", which is a trap the PM always falls into.

    Anyway I shall sign off for the rest of the day you will be pleased to hear but I can't wait for this referendum to be over (whatever the result!).

    Rememeber she is an English literature student so knows everything
    When did she say that - puerile ad hominem attack because she duffed up Remain's dim star.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 115,944

    Good article, and hard to argue with. A practical question - in Mike's absence, what email address should article submissions be sent to? I have one which I think will be of some interest.

    You've still got my email address haven't you? Send it there.
  • Options
    weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    edited June 2016
    Sean_F said:

    weejonnie said:

    Leave have one hurdle to clear tonight - but it's a biggie - "You claim that we send £350 million a week to the EU - however half of that actually never leaves the UK thanks to our rebate. Haven't you been highly misleading in your campaign?"

    If Mr Gove can get through that then Leave will win.

    The Rebate is worth £60m a week. So, £290m would be the fairest figure to use.
    Wikipedia (not that I trust it 75%) suggests £5 billion or £100 million a week. However, you also have to include the other contributions we make - e.g. 75% on all import duties, a percentage of VAT receipts.
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    logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,768
    Roger said:

    chestnut said:

    Why do people continue to talk as though there are only 27 other nations on earth?

    There is a deal with Canada (equivalent GDP to 14 EU nations) sitting around at the moment, waiting to be signed off.

    http://ca.reuters.com/article/businessNews/idCAKCN0YO2CL

    It is only our involvement in the EU that is stopping it.

    Is it a party trick using silly statistics? Why not say a deal with Canada with a GDP significantly less than that of Italy?
    I was wondering which EU nations. I guess they started with Luxembourg.
  • Options
    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,523
    PlatoSaid said:

    tlg86 said:

    JamesM said:

    Morning all,

    On the issue of Article 50, I may have misheard last night but I didn't think the Prime Minister was quite as decisive in claiming he would invoke it straight away in the event of an Out vote. I think it was Faisal Islam who mentioned the European Council meeting the following Monday. Maybe someone has a better memory than me, but I did at the time notice a little backtracking from Cameron there.

    He said we should invoke Article 50, but he did not say when .
    I was sure I heard him respond to Faisal's question. "28th June" "Yes"
    It was hard to tell as they were talking over each other.
    Roger said:

    Sean_F said:

    Roger said:

    I'm beginning to think we should Leave. We owe it to our cultured cousins in the EU to spare them having to put up with us any longer than they have to.

    Just reading half a dozen posters on this site tells you what kind of neigbours the poor buggers have been having to live with.

    Our cultured cousins who vote FN, FPO, Jobbik, Syriza etc.?
    There is such a whiff around here that we are inately superior to those other countries in the EU. I work in many of them and for many of them in a profession where the UK actually excels and it couldn't be further from the truth. I would like us to leave if only to force our populaion into a reality check.
    The irony here is that a decent chunk of the British people you are sneering at vote Labour.
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 21,191
    edited June 2016

    I shall refrain from watching SKY until 8pm this evening. I'm sure they will be/are already running every single minute of last night. I thought the young woman (who has now had her five minutes of fame) was bloody rude.


    I thought that girl was great. No words can describe the contempt a lot of us have for Cameron and his wriggling, waffling and complete cynical shallowness.

    It's about time he was forced to face reality because after six years in Downing St. he's obviously gone mad.
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    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    GIN1138 said:

    BBC top story on the website is Cameron claiming we can control immigration in the EU.

    That's factually wrong. It's even more wrong than the highly misleading Turkish poster from Leave (Turkey is in the process of joining, but it's taking a very long time).

    Edited extra bit: there's also an obvious follow-up question.

    If we can control immigration in the EU, why hasn't Cameron hit his target?

    Cameron was on the hook and wriggling over Immigration. It was quite obvious that he had no answer to the questions being put to him and really wanted to say that "immigration in the hundreds of thousands was a price worth paying" but dare not.

    Which is a reasonable position except he campaigned last year on a manifesto the pledged to curb immigration to tens of thousands.

    Same thing with Sadiq Khan. A couple of weeks ago he was claiming Khan was a terrorist sympathizer then he was going out campaigning with him...

    Cameron is a complete and utter busted flush. Who on Earth would believe a word this man says?
    The glances we did get of the audience reminded me of a bored jury who don't believe a word the defendant is saying. They woke up when things got tasty. The off-mike heckling was another thing I didn't expect.

    Kay said they were in a feisty mood before the show started, then she totally lost control. I gather it carried on afterwards too. The reaction of the various Sky bods was telling. They seemed quite shocked by it all - as if they'd expected some nice civilised Q&A ,and got departure lounge of pissed off passengers instead.
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 21,191
    PlatoSaid said:

    GIN1138 said:

    BBC top story on the website is Cameron claiming we can control immigration in the EU.

    That's factually wrong. It's even more wrong than the highly misleading Turkish poster from Leave (Turkey is in the process of joining, but it's taking a very long time).

    Edited extra bit: there's also an obvious follow-up question.

    If we can control immigration in the EU, why hasn't Cameron hit his target?

    Cameron was on the hook and wriggling over Immigration. It was quite obvious that he had no answer to the questions being put to him and really wanted to say that "immigration in the hundreds of thousands was a price worth paying" but dare not.

    Which is a reasonable position except he campaigned last year on a manifesto the pledged to curb immigration to tens of thousands.

    Same thing with Sadiq Khan. A couple of weeks ago he was claiming Khan was a terrorist sympathizer then he was going out campaigning with him...

    Cameron is a complete and utter busted flush. Who on Earth would believe a word this man says?
    The glances we did get of the audience reminded me of a bored jury who don't believe a word the defendant is saying. They woke up when things got tasty. The off-mike heckling was another thing I didn't expect.

    Kay said they were in a feisty mood before the show started, then she totally lost control. I gather it carried on afterwards too. The reaction of the various Sky bods was telling. They seemed quite shocked by it all - as if they'd expected some nice civilised Q&A ,and got departure lounge of pissed off passengers instead.
    Maybe they'd all had a few glasses of "bubbles" in hospitality before they went live? ;)
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    chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    Roger said:

    chestnut said:

    Why do people continue to talk as though there are only 27 other nations on earth?

    There is a deal with Canada (equivalent GDP to 14 EU nations) sitting around at the moment, waiting to be signed off.

    http://ca.reuters.com/article/businessNews/idCAKCN0YO2CL

    It is only our involvement in the EU that is stopping it.

    Is it a party trick using silly statistics? Why not say a deal with Canada with a GDP significantly less than that of Italy?
    If we add Malta, Cyprus, Estonia, Croatia, Romania, Lithuania, Latvia, Bulgaria, Slovenia, Slovakia, Luxembourg, Hungary, Czech Republic and Greece together - we get an economy the size of Canada.

    We are subject to the influence, and in this case obstruction, of a lot of nations that are quite frankly a trading irrelevance.

    How have we reached the perverse and economically daft situation where we are unable to conclude a deal with Canada because Romania - an economy just one-tenth the size of Canada's - wants visa free travel?

    The opportunity cost of the EU.
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    FF43FF43 Posts: 16,127
    GIN1138 said:

    I shall refrain from watching SKY until 8pm this evening. I'm sure they will be/are already running every single minute of last night. I thought the young woman (who has now had her five minutes of fame) was bloody rude.


    I thought that girl was great. No words can describe the contempt a lot of us have for Cameron and his wriggling, waffling and complete cynical shallowness.

    It's about time he was forced to face reality because after six years in Downing St. he's obviously gone mad.
    You mean mad because he says we are controlling immigration now? The uncomfortable fact for both sides is that the government controls immigration as much as it wants to right now (ie not much) and it won't change a lot after Brexit.
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    currystarcurrystar Posts: 1,171
    The glorious naivity of some posts on here is wornderful, the level of apparent knowledge of how foreign governemnts are going to react to the UK leaving is laughable.

    They'll be too busy declaring war on us to notice. That or managing their own peasants revolts.

    Dont be daft, they will be so desperate to fall over backwards to assist the UK they will not care what their citizens think. The UK is the most important thing to all EU Governments and they will ensure that our exports to them will increase dramatically following our decision to leave. They just wont be able to live without us and they will know they should have allowed Cameron to renegotiate whatever he liked just for the pleasure of keeping the UK in the EU. They will also ensure that they massively overprice all their imports to this county so that UK citizens will only buy British. Following the leave vote there will be no skills gap within our workforce. All those UK citizens whose jobs are currently filled by those pesky foreigners, will replace them and be as skillful and productive leading to all EU citizens being desperate to buy British. The shops in the high street which currently sell nasty foreign food and wares, will be taken over by Tubbs and Edward Tattsyrup clones who will sell products that the local community has been missing out on by those lazy foreigners having a shop.

    The finances of the UK will improve expedentially as all those nasty foreigners who dont pay tax will be sent packing and there will be job for all British Citizens with a minimum wage rate of £15.00 per hour. Tax revenues will double and unemployment benefit will be history The vegetables in Norfolk will be developed so that they pick themselves to ensure that British Citizens only have to work in jobs that they want with short hours and high pay.

    The UK will of course win the Eurovision Song Contest each year
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    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    GoggleBox from Liverpool - young woman who's for Remain anyway.

    "It was a mistake for Cameron to lead the campaign, people don't want to vote cos they hate him"...

    I wonder how widespread this is? We've mentioned on here before - strategic mistake by Cameron.
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 21,191
    FF43 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    I shall refrain from watching SKY until 8pm this evening. I'm sure they will be/are already running every single minute of last night. I thought the young woman (who has now had her five minutes of fame) was bloody rude.


    I thought that girl was great. No words can describe the contempt a lot of us have for Cameron and his wriggling, waffling and complete cynical shallowness.

    It's about time he was forced to face reality because after six years in Downing St. he's obviously gone mad.
    You mean mad because he says we are controlling immigration now? The uncomfortable fact for both sides is that the government controls immigration as much as it wants to right now (ie not much) and it won't change a lot after Brexit.
    No, because he is disingenuous about everything.

    I think the fiasco with Sadiq Khan has been especially damaging - To accuse someone of, in affect, being a terrorist sympathizer and then, within a couple of weeks to be sharing a platform with that same person just looks terrible to most voters.

    As someone in the debate said, his claims have become so outrageous and disingenuous that he's trashed his reputation and authority.
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    GIN1138 said:

    I shall refrain from watching SKY until 8pm this evening. I'm sure they will be/are already running every single minute of last night. I thought the young woman (who has now had her five minutes of fame) was bloody rude.


    I thought that girl was great. No words can describe the contempt a lot of us have for Cameron and his wriggling, waffling and complete cynical shallowness.

    It's about time he was forced to face reality because after six years in Downing St. he's obviously gone mad.
    My partner and I thought it was a bit rich of her to accuse the PM of waffling after asking a long rambling question. Some of the other questioners were better.
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 57,303
    PlatoSaid said:

    GIN1138 said:

    BBC top story on the website is Cameron claiming we can control immigration in the EU.

    That's factually wrong. It's even more wrong than the highly misleading Turkish poster from Leave (Turkey is in the process of joining, but it's taking a very long time).

    Edited extra bit: there's also an obvious follow-up question.

    If we can control immigration in the EU, why hasn't Cameron hit his target?

    Cameron was on the hook and wriggling over Immigration. It was quite obvious that he had no answer to the questions being put to him and really wanted to say that "immigration in the hundreds of thousands was a price worth paying" but dare not.

    Which is a reasonable position except he campaigned last year on a manifesto the pledged to curb immigration to tens of thousands.

    Same thing with Sadiq Khan. A couple of weeks ago he was claiming Khan was a terrorist sympathizer then he was going out campaigning with him...

    Cameron is a complete and utter busted flush. Who on Earth would believe a word this man says?
    The glances we did get of the audience reminded me of a bored jury who don't believe a word the defendant is saying. They woke up when things got tasty. The off-mike heckling was another thing I didn't expect.

    Kay said they were in a feisty mood before the show started, then she totally lost control. I gather it carried on afterwards too. The reaction of the various Sky bods was telling. They seemed quite shocked by it all - as if they'd expected some nice civilised Q&A ,and got departure lounge of pissed off passengers instead.
    Departure lounge of pissed off passengers is a very good analogy.
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    currystarcurrystar Posts: 1,171
    PlatoSaid said:

    GoggleBox from Liverpool - young woman who's for Remain anyway.

    "It was a mistake for Cameron to lead the campaign, people don't want to vote cos they hate him"...

    I wonder how widespread this is? We've mentioned on here before - strategic mistake by Cameron.

    I can see why they hate a man whose Government has created record employment in this Country.

    Whoever becomes the next PM in this Country. no matter from which Party will be hated by vast swathes of the elctorate. Why peple "hate" someone they don't know amazes me. Its a bit like the "love" people felt for Princess Di. They didn't know her but they loved her.

    All you Cameron haters should remeber that a year ago he became the first sitting PM to actually increase the vote of his party, an amazing achievement. Maybe you abusers should take a look at yourselves and see what you have achieved in your lives before being so vitriolic in your abuse to Cameron. Could you do any better?
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    John_N4John_N4 Posts: 553
    edited June 2016
    Donald Trump has reorganised his plans so that he will be in Britain on the day the referendum result comes in, 24 June.

    Trump supports Brexit.
    Clinton supports Remain.
    It must be a fun time at the US embassy in London and at the US liaison and US-watching departments of the FCO and SIS.

    (Never mind the pieces that expose Trump's unfamiliarity with the word "Brexit". That doesn't actually make him stupid. He's not stupid. He has unambiguously said that he thinks Britain should leave the EU.)

    How will the referendum result impact on the US presidential election?

    Trump will use a Leave result to push the idea that things are going his way. He will, I suspect, make a big speech about it. He will say the establishment said Brexit was impossible, but the people showed otherwise. He will say hail the people. As in sieg.

    Is he funding Leave? It wouldn't surprise me.

    Marine Le Pen will also do well out of a Leave result. She has promised to be "Madame Frexit". Polls have shown that a majority of people in France want a referendum on EU membership.

    With France and Britain outside, the EU is dead. All it will be is a German trading bloc. The face of Europe will change, big-time.

    The international political ramifications of Brexit will probably be greater than its effects on the markets, which will be of a triggering kind only: there's obviously got to be another bank crash quite soon, and a global depression, for reasons I won't go into here. But as for whether Marine Le Pen will get to the Elysée, well that's not a foregone.

    If the result is to Remain, Clinton will pat the British people on the back for choosing safety above rhetoric and she will say the US people should do the same. That's her act. It will help her, but only a bit. I wonder where she will be on the 24th.
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    My my, the europhiles here really are getting restless.

    Some of their comments are a joy to behold.

    The people who vote for Remain,
    On seeing it go down the drain,
    Got frightfully rude,
    At the Brexiter dudes,
    But Faragists won the day all the same.
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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 24,425
    currystar said:

    The glorious naivity of some posts on here is wornderful, the level of apparent knowledge of how foreign governemnts are going to react to the UK leaving is laughable.

    They'll be too busy declaring war on us to notice. That or managing their own peasants revolts.

    Dont be daft, they will be so desperate to fall over backwards to assist the UK they will not care what their citizens think. The UK is the most important thing to all EU Governments and they will ensure that our exports to them will increase dramatically following our decision to leave. They just wont be able to live without us and they will know they should have allowed Cameron to renegotiate whatever he liked just for the pleasure of keeping the UK in the EU. They will also ensure that they massively overprice all their imports to this county so that UK citizens will only buy British. Following the leave vote there will be no skills gap within our workforce. All those UK citizens whose jobs are currently filled by those pesky foreigners, will replace them and be as skillful and productive leading to all EU citizens being desperate to buy British. The shops in the high street which currently sell nasty foreign food and wares, will be taken over by Tubbs and Edward Tattsyrup clones who will sell products that the local community has been missing out on by those lazy foreigners having a shop.

    The finances of the UK will improve expedentially as all those nasty foreigners who dont pay tax will be sent packing and there will be job for all British Citizens with a minimum wage rate of £15.00 per hour. Tax revenues will double and unemployment benefit will be history The vegetables in Norfolk will be developed so that they pick themselves to ensure that British Citizens only have to work in jobs that they want with short hours and high pay.

    The UK will of course win the Eurovision Song Contest each year

    Well quite clearly the bulk of your text is self evidently true, but the Eurovision song contest that's just pie in the sky frankly.
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,189
    currystar said:

    The glorious naivity of some posts on here is wornderful, the level of apparent knowledge of how foreign governemnts are going to react to the UK leaving is laughable.

    They'll be too busy declaring war on us to notice. That or managing their own peasants revolts.

    Dont be daft, they will be so desperate to fall over backwards to assist the UK they will not care what their citizens think. The UK is the most important thing to all EU Governments and they will ensure that our exports to them will increase dramatically following our decision to leave. They just wont be able to live without us and they will know they should have allowed Cameron to renegotiate whatever he liked just for the pleasure of keeping the UK in the EU. They will also ensure that they massively overprice all their imports to this county so that UK citizens will only buy British. Following the leave vote there will be no skills gap within our workforce. All those UK citizens whose jobs are currently filled by those pesky foreigners, will replace them and be as skillful and productive leading to all EU citizens being desperate to buy British. The shops in the high street which currently sell nasty foreign food and wares, will be taken over by Tubbs and Edward Tattsyrup clones who will sell products that the local community has been missing out on by those lazy foreigners having a shop.

    The finances of the UK will improve expedentially as all those nasty foreigners who dont pay tax will be sent packing and there will be job for all British Citizens with a minimum wage rate of £15.00 per hour. Tax revenues will double and unemployment benefit will be history The vegetables in Norfolk will be developed so that they pick themselves to ensure that British Citizens only have to work in jobs that they want with short hours and high pay.

    The UK will of course win the Eurovision Song Contest each year



    As I noted the other day, the parallels with the Scottish referendum are extraordinary. When it came time to negotiate the break-up of the UK, the SNP told the Scots, Westminster would do everything that Scotland wanted because Scotland held all the cards.

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    HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    edited June 2016
    I detect a very strange mood on here this morning, almost as if those posters who would prefer to remain in the EU are conceding that they have lost the argument. It is most odd, entirely premature and I wonder what has brought it about. Surely it can't just be Cameron's appearance on television last night, which, from what I gather, told us nothing new about the man or his reasons for wanting to remain.
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 57,303
    currystar said:

    Sean_F said:

    DavidL said:

    As I have been saying over the last week or so win or lose we will effectively have minority government in this country. No conceivable Conservative leader, whether it is Cameron staggering on after a win or a Leave replacement if he loses will command a majority in the House of Commons.

    The Tory party needs to decide internally what its position is. If Remain win and that is the position chosen by the party then those who want to be elected on its ticket need to commit to that for the foreseeable future. If they feel they cannot do that they need to move on. The same applies if Leave wins. The civil war in the Tory party that has been raging since at least 1992 is being resolved at considerable public expense. It cannot be allowed to go on past the 24th.

    Whether either wing, in the event it is successful, can command a majority in the country is another matter but it cannot be ruled out as long as Corbyn is the opposition.

    What do British voters want? Not, ideally, to leave the EU, but to have the EU do less, and return powers to member States, with some degree of control of immigration. I expect that this attitude is mirrored in Scandinavia, and perhaps Italy and France.

    All of this.

    The more intelligent continental EU politicians and apparatchiks will realise they didn't seriously engage with British concerns in the event of a Leave vote.

    However, the message of a narrow Remain vote will fall on tin ears, IMHO.
    The glorious naivity of some posts on here is wornderful, the level of apparent knowledge of how foreign governemnts are going to react to the UK leaving is laughable.
    I don't know if that's directed at me, currystar, but I have no idea exactly how foreign governments will react if we Leave. All I can do is lay out my assessment.

    I think it'll be initially very emotional, that a deal in goods should be fairly straightforward but one in services and financial services far less so.

    I think the UK will need to be generous, offer something in good faith (perhaps on continuing to contribute to the EU budget and security) and show how its exit may aid the eurozone in pursuing the closer union it wishes to pursue to survive.

    Germany and the UK will continue to share close economic interests. The Netherlands will still want Rotterdam et al to remain major trading ports for the UK. France will want to maintain foreign and defence cooperation with the UK.

    So I am confident that eventually everyone will act like grown ups. The question is how long it takes to reach that point. I think fairly soon, inside a year or two, others may disagree.

    It's my best guess.
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    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    currystar said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    GoggleBox from Liverpool - young woman who's for Remain anyway.

    "It was a mistake for Cameron to lead the campaign, people don't want to vote cos they hate him"...

    I wonder how widespread this is? We've mentioned on here before - strategic mistake by Cameron.

    I can see why they hate a man whose Government has created record employment in this Country.

    Whoever becomes the next PM in this Country. no matter from which Party will be hated by vast swathes of the elctorate. Why peple "hate" someone they don't know amazes me. Its a bit like the "love" people felt for Princess Di. They didn't know her but they loved her.

    All you Cameron haters should remeber that a year ago he became the first sitting PM to actually increase the vote of his party, an amazing achievement. Maybe you abusers should take a look at yourselves and see what you have achieved in your lives before being so vitriolic in your abuse to Cameron. Could you do any better?
    Golly, three Weetabix this morning?

    You probably don't remember, but I was one of the few Tories on here who was still giving Cameron the benefit of the doubt over his EU negotiations. I waited until we saw in the less than impressive results.

    I think he's lost the plot. As do very many others who now feel they campaigned for him on a false prospectus.
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    John_N4John_N4 Posts: 553
    edited June 2016
    currystar said:

    The glorious naivity of some posts on here is wornderful, the level of apparent knowledge of how foreign governemnts are going to react to the UK leaving is laughable.

    They'll be too busy declaring war on us to notice. That or managing their own peasants revolts.

    Dont be daft, they will be so desperate to fall over backwards to assist the UK they will not care what their citizens think. The UK is the most important thing to all EU Governments and they will ensure that our exports to them will increase dramatically following our decision to leave. They just wont be able to live without us and they will know they should have allowed Cameron to renegotiate whatever he liked just for the pleasure of keeping the UK in the EU. They will also ensure that they massively overprice all their imports to this county so that UK citizens will only buy British. Following the leave vote there will be no skills gap within our workforce. All those UK citizens whose jobs are currently filled by those pesky foreigners, will replace them and be as skillful and productive leading to all EU citizens being desperate to buy British. The shops in the high street which currently sell nasty foreign food and wares, will be taken over by Tubbs and Edward Tattsyrup clones who will sell products that the local community has been missing out on by those lazy foreigners having a shop.

    The finances of the UK will improve expedentially as all those nasty foreigners who dont pay tax will be sent packing and there will be job for all British Citizens with a minimum wage rate of £15.00 per hour. Tax revenues will double and unemployment benefit will be history The vegetables in Norfolk will be developed so that they pick themselves to ensure that British Citizens only have to work in jobs that they want with short hours and high pay.

    The UK will of course win the Eurovision Song Contest each year

    You've put a lot of effort into the sarcasm, but what do you think the effects of Brexit will be in other countries?
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 57,303

    currystar said:

    The glorious naivity of some posts on here is wornderful, the level of apparent knowledge of how foreign governemnts are going to react to the UK leaving is laughable.

    They'll be too busy declaring war on us to notice. That or managing their own peasants revolts.
    Dont be daft, they will be so desperate to fall over backwards to assist the UK they will not care what their citizens think. The UK is the most important thing to all EU Governments and they will ensure that our exports to them will increase dramatically following our decision to leave. They just wont be able to live without us and they will know they should have allowed Cameron to renegotiate whatever he liked just for the pleasure of keeping the UK in the EU. They will also ensure that they massively overprice all their imports to this county so that UK citizens will only buy British. Following the leave vote there will be no skills gap within our workforce. All those UK citizens whose jobs are currently filled by those pesky foreigners, will replace them and be as skillful and productive leading to all EU citizens being desperate to buy British. The shops in the high street which currently sell nasty foreign food and wares, will be taken over by Tubbs and Edward Tattsyrup clones who will sell products that the local community has been missing out on by those lazy foreigners having a shop.

    The finances of the UK will improve expedentially as all those nasty foreigners who dont pay tax will be sent packing and there will be job for all British Citizens with a minimum wage rate of £15.00 per hour. Tax revenues will double and unemployment benefit will be history The vegetables in Norfolk will be developed so that they pick themselves to ensure that British Citizens only have to work in jobs that they want with short hours and high pay.

    The UK will of course win the Eurovision Song Contest each year



    As I noted the other day, the parallels with the Scottish referendum are extraordinary. When it came time to negotiate the break-up of the UK, the SNP told the Scots, Westminster would do everything that Scotland wanted because Scotland held all the cards.



    Break-ups are never easy.

    That doesn't mean it's not the right thing to do when it isn't working for either party anymore.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 115,944

    I detect a very strange mood on here this morning, almost as if those posters who would prefer to remain in the EU are conceding that they have lost the argument. It is most odd, entirely premature and I wonder what has brought it about. Surely it can't just be Cameron's appearance on television last night, which, from what I gather, told us nothing new about the man or his reasons for wanting to remain.

    Nah, Some Leavers have already declared "Leave are going to win."

    We just don't want to ruin the mood.
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    RogerRoger Posts: 19,300
    edited June 2016
    I wrote a piece comparing the opening two campaign broadcasts last week. The Leave one was an apocalyptic vision of the NHS brought brought about by immigration and the £350 million a week we were spending on the EU. I suggested it was aimed at elderly Labour voters and would probably resonate.

    This morning there was a vox pop from a welsh mining village and the first lady interviewed said she was voting 'Leave' because of immigration. "But there are no immigrants here". "I know" she said "but the money they're spending on them is comng out of the health service"

    I know negative advertising works but I doubt even the person who wrote it expected such a bulls eye

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    I detect a very strange mood on here this morning, almost as if those posters who would prefer to remain in the EU are conceding that they have lost the argument. It is most odd, entirely premature and I wonder what has brought it about. Surely it can't just be Cameron's appearance on television last night, which, from what I gather, told us nothing new about the man or his reasons for wanting to remain.

    Once you are being laughed at and openly mocked to your face you hwve lost. End of.
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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,557
    Sean_F said:

    malcolmg said:

    Sean_F said:

    chestnut said:

    If Leave lose they need to reinvent themselves as EU Reformers. If we are In we must make the thing work better.

    They also need to pursue the government for proper plans for matched intakes of midwives, doctors, teachers etc from eastern and southern europe in line with population increases.

    Immigration grievances need to be focused on the non-EU numbers, There appear to be something like 160,000 work related arrivals who are not on high skilled visas, for example.

    If Remain lose, they need to stop running the country down and be open to trade deals.

    I am having my first wobble on this, and it's all thanks to Corbyn.

    A Brexit UK run by a Corbyn does not bear thinking about.

    Well, that is one potential Brexit risk.

    Another, to me, is that other countries will be determined to damage us, in order to deter anyone else from leaving the EU.
    They will be too concerned about all the goods they sell us drying up and beggaring them.
    People don't always act rationally. There may be a good deal of bitterness and spite aimed at us in the event of a Brexit vote.
    They will act with their pockets, its all money nowadays, no principles.
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 57,303

    I detect a very strange mood on here this morning, almost as if those posters who would prefer to remain in the EU are conceding that they have lost the argument. It is most odd, entirely premature and I wonder what has brought it about. Surely it can't just be Cameron's appearance on television last night, which, from what I gather, told us nothing new about the man or his reasons for wanting to remain.

    Nah, Some Leavers have already declared "Leave are going to win."

    We just don't want to ruin the mood.
    For clarity, I said I think Leave now have a realistic shot at winning for the first time. Not that they *will* win.

    I still expect Remain to pip it by a few percent.

    Subtle difference.
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    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383

    I detect a very strange mood on here this morning, almost as if those posters who would prefer to remain in the EU are conceding that they have lost the argument. It is most odd, entirely premature and I wonder what has brought it about. Surely it can't just be Cameron's appearance on television last night, which, from what I gather, told us nothing new about the man or his reasons for wanting to remain.

    Once you are being laughed at and openly mocked to your face you hwve lost. End of.
    The whole campaign is strange. The contempt heaped on Leave for weeks, replaced by sledging, then replaced by hot tempers. And we're still looking at 50/50ish right now with almost three weeks to go.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 115,944

    I detect a very strange mood on here this morning, almost as if those posters who would prefer to remain in the EU are conceding that they have lost the argument. It is most odd, entirely premature and I wonder what has brought it about. Surely it can't just be Cameron's appearance on television last night, which, from what I gather, told us nothing new about the man or his reasons for wanting to remain.

    Nah, Some Leavers have already declared "Leave are going to win."

    We just don't want to ruin the mood.
    For clarity, I said I think Leave now have a realistic shot at winning for the first time. Not that they *will* win.

    I still expect Remain to pip it by a few percent.

    Subtle difference.
    It wasn't you I was referencing.
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 21,191
    malcolmg said:

    Sean_F said:

    malcolmg said:

    Sean_F said:

    chestnut said:

    If Leave lose they need to reinvent themselves as EU Reformers. If we are In we must make the thing work better.

    They also need to pursue the government for proper plans for matched intakes of midwives, doctors, teachers etc from eastern and southern europe in line with population increases.

    Immigration grievances need to be focused on the non-EU numbers, There appear to be something like 160,000 work related arrivals who are not on high skilled visas, for example.

    If Remain lose, they need to stop running the country down and be open to trade deals.

    I am having my first wobble on this, and it's all thanks to Corbyn.

    A Brexit UK run by a Corbyn does not bear thinking about.

    Well, that is one potential Brexit risk.

    Another, to me, is that other countries will be determined to damage us, in order to deter anyone else from leaving the EU.
    They will be too concerned about all the goods they sell us drying up and beggaring them.
    People don't always act rationally. There may be a good deal of bitterness and spite aimed at us in the event of a Brexit vote.
    They will act with their pockets, its all money nowadays, no principles.
    Morning Malc. :smiley:

    Remainers seem a bit crestfallen at the moment...
  • Options
    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Who are the Leavers on here who've declared a win?

    I'm struggling to think of any. I've a small hope we could do it - nothing more.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 57,303

    I detect a very strange mood on here this morning, almost as if those posters who would prefer to remain in the EU are conceding that they have lost the argument. It is most odd, entirely premature and I wonder what has brought it about. Surely it can't just be Cameron's appearance on television last night, which, from what I gather, told us nothing new about the man or his reasons for wanting to remain.

    Nah, Some Leavers have already declared "Leave are going to win."

    We just don't want to ruin the mood.
    For clarity, I said I think Leave now have a realistic shot at winning for the first time. Not that they *will* win.

    I still expect Remain to pip it by a few percent.

    Subtle difference.
    It wasn't you I was referencing.
    Fair enough.
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    RogerRoger Posts: 19,300
    edited June 2016
    tlg86 said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    tlg86 said:

    JamesM said:

    Morning all,

    On the issue of Article 50, I may have misheard last night but I didn't think the Prime Minister was quite as decisive in claiming he would invoke it straight away in the event of an Out vote. I think it was Faisal Islam who mentioned the European Council meeting the following Monday. Maybe someone has a better memory than me, but I did at the time notice a little backtracking from Cameron there.

    He said we should invoke Article 50, but he did not say when .
    I was sure I heard him respond to Faisal's question. "28th June" "Yes"
    It was hard to tell as they were talking over each other.
    Roger said:

    Sean_F said:

    Roger said:

    I'm beginning to think we should Leave. We owe it to our cultured cousins in the EU to spare them having to put up with us any longer than they have to.

    Just reading half a dozen posters on this site tells you what kind of neigbours the poor buggers have been having to live with.

    Our cultured cousins who vote FN, FPO, Jobbik, Syriza etc.?
    There is such a whiff around here that we are inately superior to those other countries in the EU. I work in many of them and for many of them in a profession where the UK actually excels and it couldn't be further from the truth. I would like us to leave if only to force our populaion into a reality check.
    The irony here is that a decent chunk of the British people you are sneering at vote Labour.
    That's not ironic and I don't vote Labour anymore
  • Options
    perdixperdix Posts: 1,806
    currystar said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    GoggleBox from Liverpool - young woman who's for Remain anyway.

    "It was a mistake for Cameron to lead the campaign, people don't want to vote cos they hate him"...

    I wonder how widespread this is? We've mentioned on here before - strategic mistake by Cameron.

    I can see why they hate a man whose Government has created record employment in this Country.

    Whoever becomes the next PM in this Country. no matter from which Party will be hated by vast swathes of the elctorate. Why peple "hate" someone they don't know amazes me. Its a bit like the "love" people felt for Princess Di. They didn't know her but they loved her.

    All you Cameron haters should remeber that a year ago he became the first sitting PM to actually increase the vote of his party, an amazing achievement. Maybe you abusers should take a look at yourselves and see what you have achieved in your lives before being so vitriolic in your abuse to Cameron. Could you do any better?
    Well said @currystar. Some welcome balance away from the bile and hatred.

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    VapidBilgeVapidBilge Posts: 412
    Scott_P said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    I noticed the Leave team have included the black box of red tape/regulation/business costs to the mix to blur it all up. I expect Gove to get it thrown at him. Hope he's prepared.

    Boris made a bit of a mess of that one.

    @rowenamason: Boris moans at EU requiring sheep with 2 teeth to be slaughtered in certain way. The laws stop scrapie-infected tissue entering food chain.
    Shame that Cameron was prattling on last night about how unjust it was that the USA was refusing to import British beef because of BSE.
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    GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    John_N4 said:

    You've put a lot of effort into the sarcasm, but what do you think the effects of Brexit will be in other countries?

    It will be a disaster for them. They will struggle to cope with the deadly plague being carried overseas by UK citizens who are seeking asylum from our new racist recession-hit radiation-scarred Brexit utopia.

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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 57,303
    PlatoSaid said:

    I detect a very strange mood on here this morning, almost as if those posters who would prefer to remain in the EU are conceding that they have lost the argument. It is most odd, entirely premature and I wonder what has brought it about. Surely it can't just be Cameron's appearance on television last night, which, from what I gather, told us nothing new about the man or his reasons for wanting to remain.

    Once you are being laughed at and openly mocked to your face you hwve lost. End of.
    The whole campaign is strange. The contempt heaped on Leave for weeks, replaced by sledging, then replaced by hot tempers. And we're still looking at 50/50ish right now with almost three weeks to go.
    Remain have just over two weeks to learn that if they want people's votes they need to stop insulting their intelligence, or just stop insulting them, ceasing the endless threats and warnings, and make a positive case for the EU to vote for it.

    Will they learn in time?

    I doubt it.

    Will it be enough to win anyway?

    Probably, but not certainly.
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    OllyTOllyT Posts: 4,978

    My my, the europhiles here really are getting restless.

    Some of their comments are a joy to behold.

    The people who vote for Remain,
    On seeing it go down the drain,
    Got frightfully rude,
    At the Brexiter dudes,
    But Faragists won the day all the same.

    Personally I would be inclined to refrain from your "You're not singing anymore" hubris until (a) Leave have actually won
    (b) The warnings of the IMF, BoE etc have been proven to be incorrect.

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    RogerRoger Posts: 19,300
    edited June 2016

    Roger said:

    I'm beginning to think we should Leave. We owe it to our cultured cousins in the EU to spare them having to put up with us any longer than they have to.

    Just reading half a dozen posters on this site tells you what kind of neigbours the poor buggers have been having to live with.

    Who are these cultured cousins. Ever spent a few weeks in the Limousin ? It's lock up your daughter's livestock down there.
    Why? Have they had a Welsh coach party?
  • Options
    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 24,425
    PlatoSaid said:

    I detect a very strange mood on here this morning, almost as if those posters who would prefer to remain in the EU are conceding that they have lost the argument. It is most odd, entirely premature and I wonder what has brought it about. Surely it can't just be Cameron's appearance on television last night, which, from what I gather, told us nothing new about the man or his reasons for wanting to remain.

    Once you are being laughed at and openly mocked to your face you hwve lost. End of.
    The whole campaign is strange. The contempt heaped on Leave for weeks, replaced by sledging, then replaced by hot tempers. And we're still looking at 50/50ish right now with almost three weeks to go.
    It is amusing though

    The politicos dont quite know how to react.

    The front men both motivate and repel at the same time. Is there a net benefit ?

    Dave reassures the rich centrist vote but pisses off half the righties and most of Labour
    Osborne - just pisses everyone off
    Corbyn motivates the extreme lefties but makes the centrists hold their noses and scares the righties
    Farage motivates kippers but repels just about everyone else.
    Boris motivates the pissed off Tories who don't like Cameron, but everyone else is a bit more sceptical of him
    Gove moitvates the "pincipled" righties but no-one on the left
    Nick Clegg is sensibly hiding

  • Options
    VapidBilgeVapidBilge Posts: 412
    malcolmg said:

    Sean_F said:

    malcolmg said:

    Sean_F said:

    chestnut said:

    If Leave lose they need to reinvent themselves as EU Reformers. If we are In we must make the thing work better.

    They also need to pursue the government for proper plans for matched intakes of midwives, doctors, teachers etc from eastern and southern europe in line with population increases.

    Immigration grievances need to be focused on the non-EU numbers, There appear to be something like 160,000 work related arrivals who are not on high skilled visas, for example.

    If Remain lose, they need to stop running the country down and be open to trade deals.

    I am having my first wobble on this, and it's all thanks to Corbyn.

    A Brexit UK run by a Corbyn does not bear thinking about.

    Well, that is one potential Brexit risk.

    Another, to me, is that other countries will be determined to damage us, in order to deter anyone else from leaving the EU.
    They will be too concerned about all the goods they sell us drying up and beggaring them.
    People don't always act rationally. There may be a good deal of bitterness and spite aimed at us in the event of a Brexit vote.
    They will act with their pockets, its all money nowadays, no principles.
    That seems to be the credo of the Remain campaign.
  • Options
    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    edited June 2016

    Scott_P said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    I noticed the Leave team have included the black box of red tape/regulation/business costs to the mix to blur it all up. I expect Gove to get it thrown at him. Hope he's prepared.

    Boris made a bit of a mess of that one.

    @rowenamason: Boris moans at EU requiring sheep with 2 teeth to be slaughtered in certain way. The laws stop scrapie-infected tissue entering food chain.
    Shame that Cameron was prattling on last night about how unjust it was that the USA was refusing to import British beef because of BSE.
    As @Tim_B pointed out last night - the USA doesn't need our beef and mostly doesn't eat lamb. It's a paper tiger of an argument.

    I'd be more concerned that the French banned our beef for SIX years, as they hid their problem in landfills. That's the sort of mentality we're up against. They had to be dragged to court over it.

    http://www.theguardian.com/uk/2002/oct/03/bse.france

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    Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,018
    edited June 2016
    Been looking at the possible progression of Euro 2016 and the likely state of the tournament at the point of the referendum.

    According to strict (coefficient determined) form, England will be preparing for a last 16 clash against Czech Republic on the Saturday. Very many of the most likely opponents for a group topping England are Eastern European / accession: Poland, Romania, Turkey, Ukraine: and likely to bring free-movement back into focus in the immediate run up. On this form, Wales and NI do not progress, but should be noted that NI are also a possible England last 16 opponent from the Poland/Ukraine group. (Note that it is not possible for ROI to encounter any home nation in the last 16).

    A second place England finish moves the date of the last 16 out to Monday, form says the opponents would be Austria The other group F nations pick out different aspects of Europe (Iceland - banking / EFTA; Portugal - Euro / bailout; Hungary - immigration / right-wing politics), but are generally less incendiary to the debate than if England win their group.

    England scraping through on a play-off are likely to face a Sunday game against Germany or a Saturday game against Spain. Despite the extra day, the former is likely to frame the referendum more with a stick it to the Krauts attitude.

    Wales, being in the same group, also face similar scenarios to England, so Germany or Spain are a big possibility for them, but Wales's progress here doesn't play in quite the same way as England's.

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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 115,944
    edited June 2016
    The brass neck of some Kippers is amazing

    The event unfolding in front of me should have been enough to send steam shooting out of the ears of any self-respecting UK Independence Party supporter.

    A British judge was being stopped from awarding what were expected to be substantial damages against someone for a serious libel because of an 11th-hour claim that the rules of the European Parliament did not allow him to do so.

    Except in this case, being heard on 17 May, the EU trump card was being played by Jane Collins who is a UKIP MEP for Yorkshire and the Humber.

    She is claiming that as an elected Member of the European Parliament she enjoys a blanket immunity from any legal action taken against her.

    It must have been the one of the most unlikely defences ever put to London's Royal Courts of Justice in the 124 years since the building was opened by Queen Victoria.

    Here was an outspoken opponent of Britain's membership of the European Union trying to escape potentially ruinous damages by appealing for help from one of the Brussels institutions she absolutely detests.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-36392015
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    The day after a leave vote, no matter how narrow, there are no "remainers" only former remainers who will quickly adapt to the new reality. In 1910 there was a strong unionist party in southern ireland, by 1920 it didn't exist.

    They have no cause, there will be no "let's get back in" groupings, for leavers post defeat, it's in there mind, it's just another step on the long march to eventual victory

    You need to be careful about that parallel.

    Our family were unionists in Southern Ireland. We were extremely well thought of in the region by both the Ascendancy and the locals.

    750 years of good faith and goodwill bought us 48 hours notice of when they were planning to burn our house down. Most people didn't get any.

    And you are surprised that there was no unionist party in southern ireland by 1920?
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    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383

    PlatoSaid said:

    I detect a very strange mood on here this morning, almost as if those posters who would prefer to remain in the EU are conceding that they have lost the argument. It is most odd, entirely premature and I wonder what has brought it about. Surely it can't just be Cameron's appearance on television last night, which, from what I gather, told us nothing new about the man or his reasons for wanting to remain.

    Once you are being laughed at and openly mocked to your face you hwve lost. End of.
    The whole campaign is strange. The contempt heaped on Leave for weeks, replaced by sledging, then replaced by hot tempers. And we're still looking at 50/50ish right now with almost three weeks to go.
    It is amusing though

    The politicos dont quite know how to react.

    The front men both motivate and repel at the same time. Is there a net benefit ?

    Dave reassures the rich centrist vote but pisses off half the righties and most of Labour
    Osborne - just pisses everyone off
    Corbyn motivates the extreme lefties but makes the centrists hold their noses and scares the righties
    Farage motivates kippers but repels just about everyone else.
    Boris motivates the pissed off Tories who don't like Cameron, but everyone else is a bit more sceptical of him
    Gove moitvates the "pincipled" righties but no-one on the left
    Nick Clegg is sensibly hiding

    Brookes' cartoon in Times today is brilliant.

    http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/comment/peter-brookes-cartoon-xlqp0j7bz
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,189
    There is contempt and heat on both sides of this argument. You only have to see the threads on here to appreciate that. I am afraid the Remain really doesn't have the monopoly on wickedness.
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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 24,425
    edited June 2016
    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    I'm beginning to think we should Leave. We owe it to our cultured cousins in the EU to spare them having to put up with us any longer than they have to.

    Just reading half a dozen posters on this site tells you what kind of neigbours the poor buggers have been having to live with.

    Who are these cultured cousins. Ever spent a few weeks in the Limousin ? It's lock up your daughter's livestock down there.
    Why? Have they had a Welsh coach party?
    The Limousin is the arsehole of France, If you want to be a French metropolitan elitist you ridicule them.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/france/9319828/French-town-up-in-arms-at-description-as-yokels-old-farts-and-too-many-cows.html
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    currystarcurrystar Posts: 1,171


    You've put a lot of effort into the sarcasm, but what do you think the effects of Brexit will be in other countries?

    I really have no idea, but the predictions on here are laughable. EU Governments may all negotiate great trade deals with the UK and our economy may not be affected by leaving the EU. In reality is that likely? I don't understand why people think that EU Governments are going to react in a way that is sensible and beneficial to the UK. Does the history of Europe indicate that this will happen? Following our sticking two fingers up at the rest of Europe (remeber that these Governement are watching what the Leave side are currently saying) I would imagine that they will make life as difficult as possible for the UK and do everything they can to show that the UK was wrong to leave, to ensure that no other Country wants to leave in the future.

    I think the first area that will suffer will be the aircraft industry. Within 5 years of a leave vote I dont think Airbus will make its wings in the UK anymore.

    Its the arrogance that gets me within the leave side that all these EU Governement wouldn't dare do anything to upset the UK.

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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,305
    edited June 2016
    currystar said:



    You've put a lot of effort into the sarcasm, but what do you think the effects of Brexit will be in other countries?

    I really have no idea, but the predictions on here are laughable. EU Governments may all negotiate great trade deals with the UK and our economy may not be affected by leaving the EU. In reality is that likely? I don't understand why people think that EU Governments are going to react in a way that is sensible and beneficial to the UK. Does the history of Europe indicate that this will happen? Following our sticking two fingers up at the rest of Europe (remeber that these Governement are watching what the Leave side are currently saying) I would imagine that they will make life as difficult as possible for the UK and do everything they can to show that the UK was wrong to leave, to ensure that no other Country wants to leave in the future.

    I think the first area that will suffer will be the aircraft industry. Within 5 years of a leave vote I dont think Airbus will make its wings in the UK anymore.

    Its the arrogance that gets me within the leave side that all these EU Governement wouldn't dare do anything to upset the UK.

    @currystar You've messed up the blockquote system - your statement makes no sense at the moment.
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    weejonnie said:

    Leave have one hurdle to clear tonight - but it's a biggie - "You claim that we send £350 million a week to the EU - however half of that actually never leaves the UK thanks to our rebate. Haven't you been highly misleading in your campaign?"

    If Mr Gove can get through that then Leave will win.

    Good point.
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    RogerRoger Posts: 19,300
    edited June 2016

    PlatoSaid said:

    I detect a very strange mood on here this morning, almost as if those posters who would prefer to remain in the EU are conceding that they have lost the argument. It is most odd, entirely premature and I wonder what has brought it about. Surely it can't just be Cameron's appearance on television last night, which, from what I gather, told us nothing new about the man or his reasons for wanting to remain.

    Once you are being laughed at and openly mocked to your face you hwve lost. End of.
    The whole campaign is strange. The contempt heaped on Leave for weeks, replaced by sledging, then replaced by hot tempers. And we're still looking at 50/50ish right now with almost three weeks to go.
    It is amusing though

    The politicos dont quite know how to react.

    The front men both motivate and repel at the same time. Is there a net benefit ?

    Dave reassures the rich centrist vote but pisses off half the righties and most of Labour
    Osborne - just pisses everyone off
    Corbyn motivates the extreme lefties but makes the centrists hold their noses and scares the righties
    Farage motivates kippers but repels just about everyone else.
    Boris motivates the pissed off Tories who don't like Cameron, but everyone else is a bit more sceptical of him
    Gove moitvates the "pincipled" righties but no-one on the left
    Nick Clegg is sensibly hiding

    The strange thing is that no one's reputation has been enhanced. In Scotland at least Nicola became a star. There isn't a single one out of this sorry list which is a reason for voting Remain. Better the crap you know.......
  • Options
    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    edited June 2016
    currystar said:



    You've put a lot of effort into the sarcasm, but what do you think the effects of Brexit will be in other countries?



    I really have no idea, but the predictions on here are laughable. EU Governments may all negotiate great trade deals with the UK and our economy may not be affected by leaving the EU. In reality is that likely? I don't understand why people think that EU Governments are going to react in a way that is sensible and beneficial to the UK. Does the history of Europe indicate that this will happen? Following our sticking two fingers up at the rest of Europe (remeber that these Governement are watching what the Leave side are currently saying) I would imagine that they will make life as difficult as possible for the UK and do everything they can to show that the UK was wrong to leave, to ensure that no other Country wants to leave in the future.

    I think the first area that will suffer will be the aircraft industry. Within 5 years of a leave vote I dont think Airbus will make its wings in the UK anymore.

    Its the arrogance that gets me within the leave side that all these EU Governement wouldn't dare do anything to upset the UK.

    Do you think in retrospect that it was wise for Cameron to lead Remain?

    Judging from last night's debate and voxpops elsewhere, he's made this personal and turned into a vote on himself and his HMG - not on the merits or otherwise of Remain.
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,672

    If Remain lose, they're stuffed. We Leave, and they're unlikely to get readmission terms that they could sell to the British public even if they wanted to.

    If Leave lose, they have two options: either say "the British people have for the second time taken politicians at their word that we are not committed to the centralisation process of ever closer union - we'll be watching, and if they turn out to have lied again as they did in 1975 they will not allow it to happpen a third time" -- or they say "the British people have accepted membership in the European Union that has ever closer union at its core - we should therefore pursue full membership including of the eurozone and Schengen and then put these terms to the public for ratification".

    Readmission terms would surely have to include joining the Euro?

    If we vote for out, we are gone UNLESS the Eurocrats immediately come back with an offer of Associate Membership, reduced membership fees etc etc....
  • Options
    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,189
    Roger said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    I detect a very strange mood on here this morning, almost as if those posters who would prefer to remain in the EU are conceding that they have lost the argument. It is most odd, entirely premature and I wonder what has brought it about. Surely it can't just be Cameron's appearance on television last night, which, from what I gather, told us nothing new about the man or his reasons for wanting to remain.

    Once you are being laughed at and openly mocked to your face you hwve lost. End of.
    The whole campaign is strange. The contempt heaped on Leave for weeks, replaced by sledging, then replaced by hot tempers. And we're still looking at 50/50ish right now with almost three weeks to go.
    It is amusing though

    The politicos dont quite know how to react.

    The front men both motivate and repel at the same time. Is there a net benefit ?

    Dave reassures the rich centrist vote but pisses off half the righties and most of Labour
    Osborne - just pisses everyone off
    Corbyn motivates the extreme lefties but makes the centrists hold their noses and scares the righties
    Farage motivates kippers but repels just about everyone else.
    Boris motivates the pissed off Tories who don't like Cameron, but everyone else is a bit more sceptical of him
    Gove moitvates the "pincipled" righties but no-one on the left
    Nick Clegg is sensibly hiding

    The strange thing is that no one's reputation has been enhanced. In Scotland at least Nicola became a star. There isn't a single one out of this sorry list which is a reason for voting Remain. Better the crap you know.......

    It has been a thoroughly miserable and unedifying few weeks in the life of our country. And on 24th June we could all be left hoping that Boris Johnson and Nigel Farage have called things correctly! If Leave wins and they turn out to be wrong, it will not be the well-off who pay the price.

  • Options
    RogerRoger Posts: 19,300
    edited June 2016

    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    I'm beginning to think we should Leave. We owe it to our cultured cousins in the EU to spare them having to put up with us any longer than they have to.

    Just reading half a dozen posters on this site tells you what kind of neigbours the poor buggers have been having to live with.

    Who are these cultured cousins. Ever spent a few weeks in the Limousin ? It's lock up your daughter's livestock down there.
    Why? Have they had a Welsh coach party?
    The Limousin is the arsehole of France, If you want to be a French metropolitan elitist you ridicule them.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/france/9319828/French-town-up-in-arms-at-description-as-yokels-old-farts-and-too-many-cows.html
    I thought they made fine china or something? I'll remember to cross the street next time I have a confirmed sighting.
  • Options
    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383

    If Remain lose, they're stuffed. We Leave, and they're unlikely to get readmission terms that they could sell to the British public even if they wanted to.

    If Leave lose, they have two options: either say "the British people have for the second time taken politicians at their word that we are not committed to the centralisation process of ever closer union - we'll be watching, and if they turn out to have lied again as they did in 1975 they will not allow it to happpen a third time" -- or they say "the British people have accepted membership in the European Union that has ever closer union at its core - we should therefore pursue full membership including of the eurozone and Schengen and then put these terms to the public for ratification".

    Readmission terms would surely have to include joining the Euro?

    If we vote for out, we are gone UNLESS the Eurocrats immediately come back with an offer of Associate Membership, reduced membership fees etc etc....
    And if they blink and give us what we want - they've then got a bunch of others demanding concessions. It's a no-win for the EU IMO.

    We go, they've a domino effect to handle - if they offer us a bribe to stay, they've still got a problem.

    All caused by their own intransigence.
  • Options
    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 24,425
    Roger said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    I detect a very strange mood on here this morning, almost as if those posters who would prefer to remain in the EU are conceding that they have lost the argument. It is most odd, entirely premature and I wonder what has brought it about. Surely it can't just be Cameron's appearance on television last night, which, from what I gather, told us nothing new about the man or his reasons for wanting to remain.

    Once you are being laughed at and openly mocked to your face you hwve lost. End of.
    The whole campaign is strange. The contempt heaped on Leave for weeks, replaced by sledging, then replaced by hot tempers. And we're still looking at 50/50ish right now with almost three weeks to go.
    It is amusing though

    The politicos dont quite know how to react.

    The front men both motivate and repel at the same time. Is there a net benefit ?

    Dave reassures the rich centrist vote but pisses off half the righties and most of Labour
    Osborne - just pisses everyone off
    Corbyn motivates the extreme lefties but makes the centrists hold their noses and scares the righties
    Farage motivates kippers but repels just about everyone else.
    Boris motivates the pissed off Tories who don't like Cameron, but everyone else is a bit more sceptical of him
    Gove moitvates the "pincipled" righties but no-one on the left
    Nick Clegg is sensibly hiding

    The strange thing is that no one's reputation has been enhanced. In Scotland at least Nicola became a star. There isn't a single one out of this sorry list which is a reason for voting Remain. Better the crap you know.......
    It's certainly turning in to a destroyer of reputations.

    I give full credit to Jezza who either through accident or design is keeping this at arms length and just letting the Tories get on with a pitbull fight.
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    The brass neck of some Kippers is amazing

    The event unfolding in front of me should have been enough to send steam shooting out of the ears of any self-respecting UK Independence Party supporter...........

    Actually I am more concerned, as would most people be, about the scandal of 1,400 cases of grooming and rape of young girls in the town where the 3 Labour MPs are. You seem more upset with one careless UKIP MEP's legal defence.
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    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383

    Roger said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    I detect a very strange mood on here this morning, almost as if those posters who would prefer to remain in the EU are conceding that they have lost the argument. It is most odd, entirely premature and I wonder what has brought it about. Surely it can't just be Cameron's appearance on television last night, which, from what I gather, told us nothing new about the man or his reasons for wanting to remain.

    Once you are being laughed at and openly mocked to your face you hwve lost. End of.
    The whole campaign is strange. The contempt heaped on Leave for weeks, replaced by sledging, then replaced by hot tempers. And we're still looking at 50/50ish right now with almost three weeks to go.
    It is amusing though

    The politicos dont quite know how to react.

    The front men both motivate and repel at the same time. Is there a net benefit ?

    Dave reassures the rich centrist vote but pisses off half the righties and most of Labour
    Osborne - just pisses everyone off
    Corbyn motivates the extreme lefties but makes the centrists hold their noses and scares the righties
    Farage motivates kippers but repels just about everyone else.
    Boris motivates the pissed off Tories who don't like Cameron, but everyone else is a bit more sceptical of him
    Gove moitvates the "pincipled" righties but no-one on the left
    Nick Clegg is sensibly hiding

    The strange thing is that no one's reputation has been enhanced. In Scotland at least Nicola became a star. There isn't a single one out of this sorry list which is a reason for voting Remain. Better the crap you know.......
    It's certainly turning in to a destroyer of reputations.

    I give full credit to Jezza who either through accident or design is keeping this at arms length and just letting the Tories get on with a pitbull fight.
    Jezza's Remain speech was epic - it shouted OUT! Anyone paying the slightest attention saw through it. Lip service would be overstating it.
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    RogerRoger Posts: 19,300
    edited June 2016
    PlatoSaid said:

    If Remain lose, they're stuffed. We Leave, and they're unlikely to get readmission terms that they could sell to the British public even if they wanted to.

    If Leave lose, they have two options: either say "the British people have for the second time taken politicians at their word that we are not committed to the centralisation process of ever closer union - we'll be watching, and if they turn out to have lied again as they did in 1975 they will not allow it to happpen a third time" -- or they say "the British people have accepted membership in the European Union that has ever closer union at its core - we should therefore pursue full membership including of the eurozone and Schengen and then put these terms to the public for ratification".

    Readmission terms would surely have to include joining the Euro?

    If we vote for out, we are gone UNLESS the Eurocrats immediately come back with an offer of Associate Membership, reduced membership fees etc etc....
    And if they blink and give us what we want - they've then got a bunch of others demanding concessions. It's a no-win for the EU IMO.

    We go, they've a domino effect to handle - if they offer us a bribe to stay, they've still got a problem.

    All caused by their own intransigence.
    That'll teach the bastards!
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