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  • Options
    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    edited May 2016
    Scott_P said:

    Alistair said:

    (2 )The service provider in relation to a child or young person must provide the child or young person and the parents of the child or young person with information about the arrangements for contacting the named person for the child or young person—

    So no requirement to tell the parents who the named person is.

    Thanks
    19 Named person service

    (1)In this Part, “named person service” means the service of making available, in relation to a child or young person, an identified individual who is to exercise the functions in subsection (5).
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    FPT re Scotland Named Persons

    The Named Person can also obtain confidential information from Doctors Dentists etc without the parents consent.

    "It is a bureaucrat’s dream, with its own brand of patronising jargon, such as its goal of GIRFEC (Getting It Right For Every Child) so that every child is SHANARRI — ‘Safe, Healthy, Achieving, Nurtured, Active, Respected, Responsible, Included’.

    There is even a SHANARRI song to be sung by Scotland’s hapless youth — one that would make Chairman Mao proud. ‘Hello sunshine, hello blue sky / ‘S-H-A-N-A-R-R-I (repeat) / We’re safe and we’re happy and achieving . . .’ And on and on."

    Read more about the McStasi here:

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3617086/The-Stasi-spying-children-s-Orwelllian-new-scheme-State-snooper-child-Scotland-compiling-dossier-family-life-chilling-implications-all.html
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    PeterCPeterC Posts: 1,274
    edited May 2016

    O/T and selfish. I’m delighted to report that my latest blood test has come back negative and therefore I've, or rather the NHS has, beaten my cancer! Five years after the operation finally I’m in the clear!

    What lovely news, Its the sort of thing that can lift everyone's day, as well as yours.
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    Cyclefree, this is a really fine article. Pragmatic, fair, balanced and yet practical in what it proposes. One has to ask why none of our main parties have this at the core of their policies? Politicians sometimes worry about the lack of trust that voters have in them and immigration policy and processes are one of the reasons.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Alistair said:


    19 Named person service

    (1)In this Part, “named person service” means the service of making available, in relation to a child or young person, an identified individual who is to exercise the functions in subsection (5).

    Which yet again doesn't say the parents will be informed who the named person is
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,314
    RodCrosby said:

    Carla Lane, of Liverbirds, has died.

    Almost 88. Never would have guessed that old...
    No, me neither. Which makes me feel old.
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,956
    edited May 2016
    Just watching C4 news on catch up. Increasingly strikes me that immigration and sovereignty are really resonating as the two main issues in this campaign.

    No emotional attachment to the EU - project fear bazooka already fired; can't see any last minute remain swingback saving the day.

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    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,222
    @OldKingCole: I am delighted to hear your news! May you have many happy years ahead of you.
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    hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    GBPUSD 1.4480 having been around the 1.47 handle before the 'poll annnouncement'.

    Sterling's high overnight at 1.4724 failed to take out the 1.4763 corrective high on May 3rd - known as a failed 5th in Elliott Wave terms as part of the larger correction off the 1.3883 lows post Boris announcing he was going to campaign on the leave side.

    This is a decidedly BEARISH setup....irrespective of the outcome on the 23rd June.

    Also note the weakness in the Dow today vis a vis the S&P. The smart money is getting out before quite a stock market correction coming up. Its a false move(including gold that will ideally fall to the $900 area) ......before we get into the sovereign debt crisis proper (I think starting January 2017) when it will be stocks / gold / dollar up, bonds / property / debt down in the move of a lifetime.
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    Scott_P said:

    Alistair said:


    19 Named person service

    (1)In this Part, “named person service” means the service of making available, in relation to a child or young person, an identified individual who is to exercise the functions in subsection (5).

    Which yet again doesn't say the parents will be informed who the named person is
    They will find out soon enough when they turn up at their house for one of tbe five times a year interrogations
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    JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,016
    Alistair said:

    Scott_P said:

    Alistair said:

    (2 )The service provider in relation to a child or young person must provide the child or young person and the parents of the child or young person with information about the arrangements for contacting the named person for the child or young person—

    So no requirement to tell the parents who the named person is.

    Thanks
    19 Named person service

    (1)In this Part, “named person service” means the service of making available, in relation to a child or young person, an identified individual who is to exercise the functions in subsection (5).
    Identified to whom?
  • Options
    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Scott_P said:

    Alistair said:


    19 Named person service

    (1)In this Part, “named person service” means the service of making available, in relation to a child or young person, an identified individual who is to exercise the functions in subsection (5).

    Which yet again doesn't say the parents will be informed who the named person is
    So you think all communication with the identified individual will be done anonymously and when they meet the identified individual will wear a mask and get an actor to say their lines?
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    Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865

    O/T and selfish. I’m delighted to report that my latest blood test has come back negative and therefore I've, or rather the NHS has, beaten my cancer! Five years after the operation finally I’m in the clear!

    That really is quite simply brilliant news!!!!. Very very well done sir and may your King cole's continue to get older.
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    LadyBucketLadyBucket Posts: 590
    Jeremy Corbyn has apparently gone on holiday. Tells you all you need to know!!!
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    Paul_BedfordshirePaul_Bedfordshire Posts: 3,632
    edited May 2016
    hunchman said:

    GBPUSD 1.4480 having been around the 1.47 handle before the 'poll annnouncement'.

    Sterling's high overnight at 1.4724 failed to take out the 1.4763 corrective high on May 3rd - known as a failed 5th in Elliott Wave terms as part of the larger correction off the 1.3883 lows post Boris announcing he was going to campaign on the leave side.

    This is a decidedly BEARISH setup....irrespective of the outcome on the 23rd June.

    Also note the weakness in the Dow today vis a vis the S&P. The smart money is getting out before quite a stock market correction coming up. Its a false move(including gold that will ideally fall to the $900 area) ......before we get into the sovereign debt crisis proper (I think starting January 2017) when it will be stocks / gold / dollar up, bonds / property / debt down in the move of a lifetime.

    I think you are posting in the wrong place. This isnt http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum.

    :)
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    hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    PlatoSaid said:

    Yowser WTF

    The Register
    As poll shows #Brexit lead, Google has been demoting pro-Brexit views in its search results https://t.co/ZG7JpBcLY8 https://t.co/Ltjont4xG8

    ...and f***book too probably?
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,314

    Jeremy Corbyn has apparently gone on holiday. Tells you all you need to know!!!

    Is it a very long one?
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    geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,176
    "Mind the gap"?
    Between perception and reality?
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,941
    Scott_P said:

    Alistair said:


    19 Named person service

    (1)In this Part, “named person service” means the service of making available, in relation to a child or young person, an identified individual who is to exercise the functions in subsection (5).

    Which yet again doesn't say the parents will be informed who the named person is
    Forgive my ignorance, but would it not be rather Orwellian to have a "Named Person" that isn't named?
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    geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,176

    Jeremy Corbyn has apparently gone on holiday. Tells you all you need to know!!!

    Out in the sun in his vest?
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,314
    Mortimer said:

    Just watching C4 news on catch up. Increasingly strikes me that immigration and sovereignty are really resonating as the two main issues in this campaign.

    No emotional attachment to the EU - project fear bazooka already fired; can't see any last minute remain swingback saving the day.

    Not sure about sovereignty, but it seems to me that immigration will swing this one to Leave and I have bet accordingly.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Alistair said:

    SNIP

    Alistair, you have had a couple of swings at this. To save you missing again, let's break it down.

    The legislation you quoted says

    (2)The service provider in relation to a child or young person must provide the child or young person and the parents of the child or young person with information about the arrangements for contacting the named person for the child or young person—


    It explicitly does not say the name of any particular named person will be communicated directly with any child or parent.

    Next we have the Tweet from a journalist

    @KennyFarq: Edinburgh council says it has been operating NP " for a few years".

    Maybe he is lying. Maybe he made up the quote. Maybe he misunderstood a statement from the council. But if we take it at face value, Edinburgh council has been running the scheme for a few years.

    So how does Edinburgh Council comply with the legislation? Let's look at their website.

    The named person, for children

    from birth is the health visitor or, for families registered with the Family Nurse Partnership programme, the family nurse.

    at primary, secondary or special school is the head teacher of the school at which your child is enrolled.

    at independent or grant-aided schools or a secure accommodation service is the head or manager of the establishment.


    So if your child is at school in Edinburgh, their headteacher may already be a Named Person, and they are under no obligation to inform you of that any further as far as the legislation is concerned.

    None of which alters the fact which started this discussion that a child who had a Named Person was killed by their parents
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,314
    geoffw said:

    Jeremy Corbyn has apparently gone on holiday. Tells you all you need to know!!!

    Out in the sun in his vest?
    A look around the Kremlin?
  • Options
    hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591

    hunchman said:

    GBPUSD 1.4480 having been around the 1.47 handle before the 'poll annnouncement'.

    Sterling's high overnight at 1.4724 failed to take out the 1.4763 corrective high on May 3rd - known as a failed 5th in Elliott Wave terms as part of the larger correction off the 1.3883 lows post Boris announcing he was going to campaign on the leave side.

    This is a decidedly BEARISH setup....irrespective of the outcome on the 23rd June.

    Also note the weakness in the Dow today vis a vis the S&P. The smart money is getting out before quite a stock market correction coming up. Its a false move(including gold that will ideally fall to the $900 area) ......before we get into the sovereign debt crisis proper (I think starting January 2017) when it will be stocks / gold / dollar up, bonds / property / debt down in the move of a lifetime.

    I think you are posting in the wrong place. This isnt http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum.

    :)
    Oh god....'that site'. Once upon a time circa 2008 there were some decent posters on there....namely cgnao. Not so now me thinks!
  • Options
    Mortimer said:

    Just watching C4 news on catch up. Increasingly strikes me that immigration and sovereignty are really resonating as the two main issues in this campaign.

    No emotional attachment to the EU - project fear bazooka already fired; can't see any last minute remain swingback saving the day.

    Immigration and sovereignty are like applied and pure maths.

    Pure maths is intellectual theorising. Applied maths is the application of those theories to real life situations.
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    Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    Cyclefree said:

    tyson said:

    Cyclefree- I would like to say that I like your article, and admittedly it does provoke some discussion, but your 1-8 point framework for assessing the benefits of immigration is pretty well loaded in one direction.

    I'm not against immigration but it does seem to me that too much of the discussion around it has either been ad hominem e.g. look at these hard luck cases or, equally, look at these bad people we can't deport or too full of self-delusion e.g. assuming that people are interchangeable.

    I was deliberately trying to set out what factors an immigration policy should take account of and doing so from the perspective of the host country/community. The case for why someone might want to move to another country to make a better life for themselves does not need to be made. The case for why a country should let in people does I think need to be made and in a way which gets the broad consent of the people already in the country. The problem as I see it is that too many of our politicians have not been straight with us about this, people feel that their generosity/hospitality has been abused and that their interests have not been taken into account. These factors have made much of the discussion about this topic unnecessarily toxic.

    Still, feel free to add in your own factors. It's a big topic and not one that can be adequately covered in just one thread (or even a shortened discussion). :(

    I am all for immigration. Just get utterly pissed off when Remain paint me has just a person hating "Johnny Foreigner".

    I am all for CONTROLLED immigration where those that come to work and reside raise families CONTRIBUTE to this country, it's people and its future success. Not the illegals creeping in on rubber rafts and on the back of lorries having crossed several safe countries before doing so and then becoming parasites on our good nature.

    Then having Merkel and co dictating that we should take a quota because they utterly fecked up themselves and the massive flow of people they started they can't now stop.

    Which is why today I voted leave

    PS Cycle really good thread header.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Sandpit said:

    Forgive my ignorance, but would it not be rather Orwellian to have a "Named Person" that isn't named?

    Indeed, but the point Alistair has been missing is not whether the Named Person in fact has a name, but what are the obligations placed on the "service provider" to communicate the name to a parent, and the legislation seems to have precisely none.

    Which is indeed Orwellian, and one of the reasons the scheme has come under such criticism
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    hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591

    Jeremy Corbyn has apparently gone on holiday. Tells you all you need to know!!!

    David Gower timing in the extreme!
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,205
    viewcode said:

    FPT

    surbiton said:

    It is still 75% to 25% chance for Remain. I wonder what does that correspond to in polls. 53% - 47% ? or a higher margin like 55% - 45% ?

    OH MY GOD, If I do ONE thing on this pissant f*****g board it will be to stamp out that misconception. It's a common misconception - even Matthew Shaddick thinks it's true[1] - but it just isn't true.

    To put it simply: a big probability of a win is not a probability of a big win. If the probability of X beating Y is large, you cannot then conclude that X will beat Y by a large margin.

    As a corollary, Matthew's graph[2] is simply wrong.

    [1] See this image on this page
    [2] this image
    This I agree with a lot.
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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,763
    edited May 2016

    Jeremy Corbyn has apparently gone on holiday. Tells you all you need to know!!!

    And why not ?

    The Tories are doing his job for him - EUref and slag the bastard Tories - so what better than a few chillaxed days by the sea.
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    Paul_BedfordshirePaul_Bedfordshire Posts: 3,632
    edited May 2016
    hunchman said:

    hunchman said:

    GBPUSD 1.4480 having been around the 1.47 handle before the 'poll annnouncement'.

    Sterling's high overnight at 1.4724 failed to take out the 1.4763 corrective high on May 3rd - known as a failed 5th in Elliott Wave terms as part of the larger correction off the 1.3883 lows post Boris announcing he was going to campaign on the leave side.

    This is a decidedly BEARISH setup....irrespective of the outcome on the 23rd June.

    Also note the weakness in the Dow today vis a vis the S&P. The smart money is getting out before quite a stock market correction coming up. Its a false move(including gold that will ideally fall to the $900 area) ......before we get into the sovereign debt crisis proper (I think starting January 2017) when it will be stocks / gold / dollar up, bonds / property / debt down in the move of a lifetime.

    I think you are posting in the wrong place. This isnt http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum.

    :)
    Oh god....'that site'. Once upon a time circa 2008 there were some decent posters on there....namely cgnao. Not so now me thinks!
    Ah the mysterious Cgnao.

    Cgnao saved me a fortune when I took note of him and moved my personal pension funds into a essentially a fixed interest rate account just before the ballon went up in 2007/8.

    Its not as good as it was but still useful to lurk on and off topic is hilarious.
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    geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,176
    edited May 2016
    Sandpit said:

    Scott_P said:

    Alistair said:


    19 Named person service

    (1)In this Part, “named person service” means the service of making available, in relation to a child or young person, an identified individual who is to exercise the functions in subsection (5).

    Which yet again doesn't say the parents will be informed who the named person is
    Forgive my ignorance, but would it not be rather Orwellian to have a "Named Person" that isn't named?
    O'Brian
    edit: O'Brien
  • Options
    hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591

    hunchman said:

    hunchman said:

    GBPUSD 1.4480 having been around the 1.47 handle before the 'poll annnouncement'.

    Sterling's high overnight at 1.4724 failed to take out the 1.4763 corrective high on May 3rd - known as a failed 5th in Elliott Wave terms as part of the larger correction off the 1.3883 lows post Boris announcing he was going to campaign on the leave side.

    This is a decidedly BEARISH setup....irrespective of the outcome on the 23rd June.

    Also note the weakness in the Dow today vis a vis the S&P. The smart money is getting out before quite a stock market correction coming up. Its a false move(including gold that will ideally fall to the $900 area) ......before we get into the sovereign debt crisis proper (I think starting January 2017) when it will be stocks / gold / dollar up, bonds / property / debt down in the move of a lifetime.

    I think you are posting in the wrong place. This isnt http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum.

    :)
    Oh god....'that site'. Once upon a time circa 2008 there were some decent posters on there....namely cgnao. Not so now me thinks!
    Ah the mysterious Cgnao.

    Cgnao saved me a fortune when I took note of him and moved my personal pension funds into a essentially a fixed interest rate account just before the ballon went up in 2007/8.

    Its not as good as it was but still useful to lurk on and off topic is hilarious.
    Haven't been on there for ages! I don't think anyone ever got to the bottom of cgnao's identity did they?
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,002
    Got to say I disagree with the PB majority. I think some are getting carried away by the polling. Whilst good for Leave, we're over three weeks from the vote, and the leads are very small.

    If EU citizens not eligible to vote are getting polling cards, that's many (hundreds of thousands?) voters likely to vote Remain.
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    Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    geoffw said:

    Jeremy Corbyn has apparently gone on holiday. Tells you all you need to know!!!

    Out in the sun in his vest?
    He was also invited to the commemoration of the Battle of Jutland as LOTO but buggered off on holiday instead. He and his cohorts really do hate and loathe this country.
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    dnaylordnaylor Posts: 2
    Sort of disagree with a few points. 4 implies people should strive for a British passport. I'm a Brit living in Switzerland. Four years on I am speaking the language fluently, working, paying taxes, found a large circle of friends, setting up a sports group and participate in anything Swiss. But I still don't have the urge to apply for a Swiss passport and I don't contribute any less because of it. People are not just alive to work, people can contribute lots to society in many more ways than just economical. Ok maybe someone is 'just' a cleaner, but maybe this cleaner sets up a youth group or a victim support group a few years down the line. Would this person with unnecessary skills be of no use? Of course people should integrate but how the country helps them integrate is just as important. I find myelf in a position where I can vote in the UK's EU referendum but cannot vote in the town where I live and pay my taxes. We should involve immigrants much more than just making them learn a language and asking them about Coronation Street (on the UK citizen test). What makes Britain what it is, is the diversity of the country, why should we all just melt into one?
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Scott_P said:

    Alistair said:

    SNIP

    Alistair, you have had a couple of swings at this. To save you missing again, let's break it down.

    The legislation you quoted says

    (2)The service provider in relation to a child or young person must provide the child or young person and the parents of the child or young person with information about the arrangements for contacting the named person for the child or young person—


    It explicitly does not say the name of any particular named person will be communicated directly with any child or parent.

    Next we have the Tweet from a journalist

    @KennyFarq: Edinburgh council says it has been operating NP " for a few years".

    Maybe he is lying. Maybe he made up the quote. Maybe he misunderstood a statement from the council. But if we take it at face value, Edinburgh council has been running the scheme for a few years.

    So how does Edinburgh Council comply with the legislation? Let's look at their website.

    The named person, for children

    from birth is the health visitor or, for families registered with the Family Nurse Partnership programme, the family nurse.

    at primary, secondary or special school is the head teacher of the school at which your child is enrolled.

    at independent or grant-aided schools or a secure accommodation service is the head or manager of the establishment.


    So if your child is at school in Edinburgh, their headteacher may already be a Named Person, and they are under no obligation to inform you of that any further as far as the legislation is concerned.

    None of which alters the fact which started this discussion that a child who had a Named Person was killed by their parents
    But they do have an obligation to inform me of how to communicate with them.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Alistair said:

    But they do have an obligation to inform me of how to communicate with them.

    Yes, and they provide a list of school contact details on the website.

    So if your child is at school in Edinburgh, their headteacher may already be a Named Person, and they are under no obligation to inform you of that any further as far as the legislation is concerned.
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    hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591

    Got to say I disagree with the PB majority. I think some are getting carried away by the polling. Whilst good for Leave, we're over three weeks from the vote, and the leads are very small.

    If EU citizens not eligible to vote are getting polling cards, that's many (hundreds of thousands?) voters likely to vote Remain.

    MD how did Monaco go for you? All the good work of Rosberg over the first 5 races of the season undone in one race. If ever you needed a demonstration of the superiority of Lewis then that was it! On a par with the legendary 2008 Monaco and 2008 Silverstone Lewis performances I'd say. Wet weather races tell you a thousand times more information about the skill of a modern day GP driver compared to dry races! F1 has been crying out for a race like Sunday for ages, it has seemed an eternity since the last wet race.
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    welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,460

    Got to say I disagree with the PB majority. I think some are getting carried away by the polling. Whilst good for Leave, we're over three weeks from the vote, and the leads are very small.

    If EU citizens not eligible to vote are getting polling cards, that's many (hundreds of thousands?) voters likely to vote Remain.

    And unless they are Cypriot, Maltese, or Irish surely it will be illegal with all that results in both individually and for the referendum?
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    geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,176

    Got to say I disagree with the PB majority. I think some are getting carried away by the polling. Whilst good for Leave, we're over three weeks from the vote, and the leads are very small.

    If EU citizens not eligible to vote are getting polling cards, that's many (hundreds of thousands?) voters likely to vote Remain.

    At the same time many thousands of Her Britannic Majesty's subjects living in Europe are completely disenfranchised thanks to HMG.
  • Options
    hunchman said:

    hunchman said:

    hunchman said:

    GBPUSD 1.4480 having been around the 1.47 handle before the 'poll annnouncement'.

    Sterling's high overnight at 1.4724 failed to take out the 1.4763 corrective high on May 3rd - known as a failed 5th in Elliott Wave terms as part of the larger correction off the 1.3883 lows post Boris announcing he was going to campaign on the leave side.

    This is a decidedly BEARISH setup....irrespective of the outcome on the 23rd June.

    Also note the weakness in the Dow today vis a vis the S&P. The smart money is getting out before quite a stock market correction coming up. Its a false move(including gold that will ideally fall to the $900 area) ......before we get into the sovereign debt crisis proper (I think starting January 2017) when it will be stocks / gold / dollar up, bonds / property / debt down in the move of a lifetime.

    I think you are posting in the wrong place. This isnt http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum.

    :)
    Oh god....'that site'. Once upon a time circa 2008 there were some decent posters on there....namely cgnao. Not so now me thinks!
    Ah the mysterious Cgnao.

    Cgnao saved me a fortune when I took note of him and moved my personal pension funds into a essentially a fixed interest rate account just before the ballon went up in 2007/8.

    Its not as good as it was but still useful to lurk on and off topic is hilarious.
    Haven't been on there for ages! I don't think anyone ever got to the bottom of cgnao's identity did they?
    I dont think so but I have my suspicions.

    Dont need to read this just look at the pictures lol.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/11805523/Doomsday-clock-for-global-market-crash-strikes-one-minute-to-midnight-as-central-banks-lose-control.html
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    hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    Scott_P said:

    Alistair said:

    But they do have an obligation to inform me of how to communicate with them.

    Yes, and they provide a list of school contact details on the website.

    So if your child is at school in Edinburgh, their headteacher may already be a Named Person, and they are under no obligation to inform you of that any further as far as the legislation is concerned.
    Yes, and its a green light to the paedophile sc*m that infect the educational establishment along with many other professions.........absolute yuck. The very idea that the parents don't have the final say over the welfare of the child is an absolute abomination of which everyone responsible for the legislation should be utterly ashamed.
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    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,252
    edited May 2016
    Scott_P said:

    Sandpit said:

    Forgive my ignorance, but would it not be rather Orwellian to have a "Named Person" that isn't named?

    Indeed, but the point Alistair has been missing is not whether the Named Person in fact has a name, but what are the obligations placed on the "service provider" to communicate the name to a parent, and the legislation seems to have precisely none.

    Which is indeed Orwellian, and one of the reasons the scheme has come under such criticism
    Any word on when the Tory-led South Ayrshire council will be suspending their (according to them successful) version of the NP scheme, and what they'll be replacing it with?

    They will be suspending it, right?
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,002
    Mr. Hunchman, if someone followed my tips with £10 stakes they'd be down 50p on the weekend :p

    I backed Rosberg for the win (but for the brake issues, that may have come off, but there we are).

    Given I lost money at the first four races I'm not too disappointed.
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    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    geoffw said:

    Got to say I disagree with the PB majority. I think some are getting carried away by the polling. Whilst good for Leave, we're over three weeks from the vote, and the leads are very small.

    If EU citizens not eligible to vote are getting polling cards, that's many (hundreds of thousands?) voters likely to vote Remain.

    At the same time many thousands of Her Britannic Majesty's subjects living in Europe are completely disenfranchised thanks to HMG.
    How? Who that is a citizen and would normally hold the franchise in a General Election has been disenfranchised?
  • Options

    Got to say I disagree with the PB majority. I think some are getting carried away by the polling. Whilst good for Leave, we're over three weeks from the vote, and the leads are very small.

    If EU citizens not eligible to vote are getting polling cards, that's many (hundreds of thousands?) voters likely to vote Remain.

    Please do not spoil this brief period of fun for LEAVE.
  • Options
    hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    dnaylor said:

    Sort of disagree with a few points. 4 implies people should strive for a British passport. I'm a Brit living in Switzerland. Four years on I am speaking the language fluently, working, paying taxes, found a large circle of friends, setting up a sports group and participate in anything Swiss. But I still don't have the urge to apply for a Swiss passport and I don't contribute any less because of it. People are not just alive to work, people can contribute lots to society in many more ways than just economical. Ok maybe someone is 'just' a cleaner, but maybe this cleaner sets up a youth group or a victim support group a few years down the line. Would this person with unnecessary skills be of no use? Of course people should integrate but how the country helps them integrate is just as important. I find myelf in a position where I can vote in the UK's EU referendum but cannot vote in the town where I live and pay my taxes. We should involve immigrants much more than just making them learn a language and asking them about Coronation Street (on the UK citizen test). What makes Britain what it is, is the diversity of the country, why should we all just melt into one?

    Welcome to PB!

    And are you in the remain or leave camp?

    Switzerland is the best case study in my opinion as to how you can thrive outside the EU.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,941

    Jeremy Corbyn has apparently gone on holiday. Tells you all you need to know!!!

    Ha ha. Did he book it before the referendum was called, and couldn't let the day job get in the way of his well earned break? If he somehow ends up as PM, will he similarly plan his time months ahead and refuse to change his plans for anyone?
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    geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,176

    geoffw said:

    Got to say I disagree with the PB majority. I think some are getting carried away by the polling. Whilst good for Leave, we're over three weeks from the vote, and the leads are very small.

    If EU citizens not eligible to vote are getting polling cards, that's many (hundreds of thousands?) voters likely to vote Remain.

    At the same time many thousands of Her Britannic Majesty's subjects living in Europe are completely disenfranchised thanks to HMG.
    How? Who that is a citizen and would normally hold the franchise in a General Election has been disenfranchised?
    Residency abroad for over 15 years disqualifies you. At the same time, unless you have a passport issued by the host country you cannot vote there.
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    PeterCPeterC Posts: 1,274
    welshowl said:

    Got to say I disagree with the PB majority. I think some are getting carried away by the polling. Whilst good for Leave, we're over three weeks from the vote, and the leads are very small.

    If EU citizens not eligible to vote are getting polling cards, that's many (hundreds of thousands?) voters likely to vote Remain.

    And unless they are Cypriot, Maltese, or Irish surely it will be illegal with all that results in both individually and for the referendum?
    Does receipt of a polling card imply eligibility to vote? Logically it should do, but perhaps the Authority has sent poll cards out to everyone but will issue ballot papers only to UK residents. I wonder if this is happening in all Authorities or just the few highlighted so far.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,130
    hunchman said:


    Switzerland is the best case study in my opinion as to how you can thrive outside the EU.

    Switzerland did a good job keeping itself out of European balance of power politics long before the EU was thought of. It would be difficult to emulated them from where we are now.
  • Options
    hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591

    Mr. Hunchman, if someone followed my tips with £10 stakes they'd be down 50p on the weekend :p

    I backed Rosberg for the win (but for the brake issues, that may have come off, but there we are).

    Given I lost money at the first four races I'm not too disappointed.

    Still think the oversteer was more the issue.....think the brake issue is a complete red herring for Rosberg to excuse his poor performance - insufficient tyre temperature is an absolute killer in the wet.

    What for me underlined Hamilton's absolute mastery was how he pulled away from Rosberg once allowed to get past - any lesser driver wouldn't have had the temperature in the brakes but Lewis maintained everything in the ideal operating window so once free of the Rosberg constraint he showed to devastating effect what he could do. OK he got lucky with the Ricciardo pit stop but sometimes in life you make your own luck with things like that when you've given yourself an opportunity to profit.
  • Options
    JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,016
    geoffw said:

    geoffw said:

    Got to say I disagree with the PB majority. I think some are getting carried away by the polling. Whilst good for Leave, we're over three weeks from the vote, and the leads are very small.

    If EU citizens not eligible to vote are getting polling cards, that's many (hundreds of thousands?) voters likely to vote Remain.

    At the same time many thousands of Her Britannic Majesty's subjects living in Europe are completely disenfranchised thanks to HMG.
    How? Who that is a citizen and would normally hold the franchise in a General Election has been disenfranchised?
    Residency abroad for over 15 years disqualifies you. At the same time, unless you have a passport issued by the host country you cannot vote there.
    Seems unreasonably generous to me. Surely if you live abroad for that length of time you apply for that country's citizenship.
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    Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    Verdict on new Top Gear -

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/05/30/top-gears-first-episode-branded-boring-and-badly-presented-by-fa/

    Jeremy Clarkson tweets 3 weeks ago -

    GT news. The only place where we will definitely be pitching our tent is Yorkshire. All 3 of us grew up there.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,941

    geoffw said:

    geoffw said:

    Got to say I disagree with the PB majority. I think some are getting carried away by the polling. Whilst good for Leave, we're over three weeks from the vote, and the leads are very small.

    If EU citizens not eligible to vote are getting polling cards, that's many (hundreds of thousands?) voters likely to vote Remain.

    At the same time many thousands of Her Britannic Majesty's subjects living in Europe are completely disenfranchised thanks to HMG.
    How? Who that is a citizen and would normally hold the franchise in a General Election has been disenfranchised?
    Residency abroad for over 15 years disqualifies you. At the same time, unless you have a passport issued by the host country you cannot vote there.
    Seems unreasonably generous to me. Surely if you live abroad for that length of time you apply for that country's citizenship.
    Not necessarily. My nephew was born in the sandpit but he will never be Emirati.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Tim_B said:

    Verdict on new Top Gear -

    @achrisevans: More bad news for the Top Gear haters: consolidated figures for the first episode of the new series have now past 5.6 million and counting.
  • Options
    dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,290
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,989
    Scott_P said:

    Tim_B said:

    Verdict on new Top Gear -

    @achrisevans: More bad news for the Top Gear haters: consolidated figures for the first episode of the new series have now past 5.6 million and counting.
    How can viewers increase after the fact? :o
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    JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,016
    Sandpit said:

    geoffw said:

    geoffw said:

    Got to say I disagree with the PB majority. I think some are getting carried away by the polling. Whilst good for Leave, we're over three weeks from the vote, and the leads are very small.

    If EU citizens not eligible to vote are getting polling cards, that's many (hundreds of thousands?) voters likely to vote Remain.

    At the same time many thousands of Her Britannic Majesty's subjects living in Europe are completely disenfranchised thanks to HMG.
    How? Who that is a citizen and would normally hold the franchise in a General Election has been disenfranchised?
    Residency abroad for over 15 years disqualifies you. At the same time, unless you have a passport issued by the host country you cannot vote there.
    Seems unreasonably generous to me. Surely if you live abroad for that length of time you apply for that country's citizenship.
    Not necessarily. My nephew was born in the sandpit but he will never be Emirati.
    I doubt Emirati citizens get to vote anyway.
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    dr_spyn said:

    Postal voting guide foul up in Kent.

    @JamieRoss7: I hadn't decided how to vote in the EU referendum but then I saw a leaflet featuring a small cartoon pen in the remain box. Swung it for me.
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    RobD said:

    How can viewers increase after the fact? :o

    I think they mean iPlayer
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    welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,460
    edited May 2016
    geoffw said:

    geoffw said:

    Got to say I disagree with the PB majority. I think some are getting carried away by the polling. Whilst good for Leave, we're over three weeks from the vote, and the leads are very small.

    If EU citizens not eligible to vote are getting polling cards, that's many (hundreds of thousands?) voters likely to vote Remain.

    At the same time many thousands of Her Britannic Majesty's subjects living in Europe are completely disenfranchised thanks to HMG.
    How? Who that is a citizen and would normally hold the franchise in a General Election has been disenfranchised?
    Residency abroad for over 15 years disqualifies you. At the same time, unless you have a passport issued by the host country you cannot vote there.
    Well no representation without taxation sort of. Why should you vote having been parked in the Algarve or wherever since 2001 when chances are you are not going to have to pay for it and deal with the consequences as those of us do who live in the UK. True the referendum is an odd one but if someone's not been paying taxes here for three or so electoral cycles why should their view be represented unless they come back?
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,989
    Scott_P said:

    RobD said:

    How can viewers increase after the fact? :o

    I think they mean iPlayer
    Ah, a fair point!
  • Options
    RobD said:

    Scott_P said:

    Tim_B said:

    Verdict on new Top Gear -

    @achrisevans: More bad news for the Top Gear haters: consolidated figures for the first episode of the new series have now past 5.6 million and counting.
    How can viewers increase after the fact? :o
    iPlayer?
  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    geoffw said:

    geoffw said:

    Got to say I disagree with the PB majority. I think some are getting carried away by the polling. Whilst good for Leave, we're over three weeks from the vote, and the leads are very small.

    If EU citizens not eligible to vote are getting polling cards, that's many (hundreds of thousands?) voters likely to vote Remain.

    At the same time many thousands of Her Britannic Majesty's subjects living in Europe are completely disenfranchised thanks to HMG.
    How? Who that is a citizen and would normally hold the franchise in a General Election has been disenfranchised?
    Residency abroad for over 15 years disqualifies you. At the same time, unless you have a passport issued by the host country you cannot vote there.
    That's the case for all elections not simply this vote: http://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/faq/voting-and-registration/can-i-still-vote-if-i-move-overseas
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Get your Remain propaganda Brexit documentary now

    @bbclaurak: For richer, for poorer- us and the EU, now! On BBC 2
    https://t.co/vntGMOgwLe
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,130

    Seems unreasonably generous to me. Surely if you live abroad for that length of time you apply for that country's citizenship.

    I don't see why you should be obliged to. Citizenship should have a deeper meaning than just where you live.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,941
    edited May 2016

    Sandpit said:

    geoffw said:

    geoffw said:

    Got to say I disagree with the PB majority. I think some are getting carried away by the polling. Whilst good for Leave, we're over three weeks from the vote, and the leads are very small.

    If EU citizens not eligible to vote are getting polling cards, that's many (hundreds of thousands?) voters likely to vote Remain.

    At the same time many thousands of Her Britannic Majesty's subjects living in Europe are completely disenfranchised thanks to HMG.
    How? Who that is a citizen and would normally hold the franchise in a General Election has been disenfranchised?
    Residency abroad for over 15 years disqualifies you. At the same time, unless you have a passport issued by the host country you cannot vote there.
    Seems unreasonably generous to me. Surely if you live abroad for that length of time you apply for that country's citizenship.
    Not necessarily. My nephew was born in the sandpit but he will never be Emirati.
    I doubt Emirati citizens get to vote anyway.
    They can in their own country, but not in the UK. They were six months ago.
    http://www.thenational.ae/uae/fnc-elections
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    JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,016
    PeterC said:

    welshowl said:

    Got to say I disagree with the PB majority. I think some are getting carried away by the polling. Whilst good for Leave, we're over three weeks from the vote, and the leads are very small.

    If EU citizens not eligible to vote are getting polling cards, that's many (hundreds of thousands?) voters likely to vote Remain.

    And unless they are Cypriot, Maltese, or Irish surely it will be illegal with all that results in both individually and for the referendum?
    Does receipt of a polling card imply eligibility to vote? Logically it should do, but perhaps the Authority has sent poll cards out to everyone but will issue ballot papers only to UK residents. I wonder if this is happening in all Authorities or just the few highlighted so far.
    The likelihood is that a computer system has wrongly been set to treat the referendum as a national rather than local one.
  • Options
    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,994
    RobD said:

    Scott_P said:

    Tim_B said:

    Verdict on new Top Gear -

    @achrisevans: More bad news for the Top Gear haters: consolidated figures for the first episode of the new series have now past 5.6 million and counting.
    How can viewers increase after the fact? :o
    Consolidated figures include those who watch later on iplayer or some other catchup system.
  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Seems unreasonably generous to me. Surely if you live abroad for that length of time you apply for that country's citizenship.

    I don't see why you should be obliged to. Citizenship should have a deeper meaning than just where you live.
    You're not obliged to. But if you've opted out of the nation for 15 years why should you still get a vote?
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    hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591

    hunchman said:

    hunchman said:

    hunchman said:

    GBPUSD 1.4480 having been around the 1.47 handle before the 'poll annnouncement'.

    Sterling's in the move of a lifetime.

    I think you are posting in the wrong place. This isnt http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum.

    :)
    Oh god....'that site'. Once upon a time circa 2008 there were some decent posters on there....namely cgnao. Not so now me thinks!
    Ah the mysterious Cgnao.

    Cgnao saved me a fortune when I took note of him and moved my personal pension funds into a essentially a fixed interest rate account just before the ballon went up in 2007/8.

    Its not as good as it was but still useful to lurk on and off topic is hilarious.
    Haven't been on there for ages! I don't think anyone ever got to the bottom of cgnao's identity did they?
    I dont think so but I have my suspicions.

    Dont need to read this just look at the pictures lol.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/11805523/Doomsday-clock-for-global-market-crash-strikes-one-minute-to-midnight-as-central-banks-lose-control.html
    Its not him, I'm fairly sure with respect. Cgnao would be clever enough and realise from the lessons of history that the next 3.5 years into early 2020 are not going to be a repeat of 2008. The crisis is going to be caused by a collapse in confidence in the government and by extension the sovereign bond markets. Where is the big institutional money going to go that crudely has a choice between bonds and stocks.?..when placing cash is risky in the banks that are largely holding the bag with sovereign bonds. Look at BKX (bank stocks index) - its a decidedly bearish setup against a bullish one for stocks overall. You've got no alternative but to go into stocks......gold is largely the domain of the private investor. Stocks have never moved on PE ratios and earnings like some of the mor*ns claim - PE ratios were most elevated in the 2008 crash when earnings were negative in 2008Q4.

    When I say bullish on stocks overall - look at the Dow repeatedly challenging the 18500/18600 area - its like the Dow challenging the 1,000 area until the breakout at the umpteemth attempt off the August 1982 lows. One of my favourite Martin Armstrong quotes is....' the gods of Wall Street give you one attempt to sell the high' .......eg the summer of 1929. They don't give you many attempts as is the case with the Dow right now.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,130
    edited May 2016
    http://www.politico.com/story/2016/05/clinton-trump-romney-wealth-223712

    Clinton has the innovative idea of replaying Obama's campaign against Romney with Trump.

    “Donald Trump is a pretty nontraditional candidate, but in a lot of ways we’re about to see a very traditional campaign, because it works,” said one former top Obama campaign official. “We beat the drum on Romney for months on jobs and his record, calling him out of touch with most Americans — for months — through paid media, candidate appearances, using surrogates.”

    “I don’t think it’s a mistake,” he added. “But I don’t think we’ll know if it’s a mistake for months."
  • Options
    ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    As ever, I find it difficult to disagree with anything Ms Cyclefree writes.

    All the talk on both sides about facts (concerning the future) and forecasts (economic and other), and benefits and costs are worthless. Guesswork is king even if one feels that those guessing are supposedly “expert”. Everyone has a dog in this fight and will talk up its chances. Only the gullible can truly expect bias free utterances from anyone. The Greek biker was on Newsnight (I think) a couple of days ago saying “never trust an economist”. I warmed to him. Certain arguments strike chords but should be caveated that, IN or OUT the situation is evolutionary. No one knows the future either way.

    From my perspective, the real issue is who decides what’s good for us? Should it be our UK elected representatives (as shite as they often are) or Europe’s elected representatives (bearing in mind that Europe now stretches to Australia as far as Eurovision is concerned) in a process pretty much controlled by even more faecal, unelected eurocrats.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,131
    A homeless man spent seven hours chalking passages from Why Vote Leave in Trafalgar Square. http://libertarianhome.co.uk/2016/05/kenny-vs-the-man-from-brussels/
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    JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,016

    Seems unreasonably generous to me. Surely if you live abroad for that length of time you apply for that country's citizenship.

    I don't see why you should be obliged to. Citizenship should have a deeper meaning than just where you live.
    Well you're obviously not obliged to, but surely it enables you to take part fully in civic life where you now live. If I retired abroad - a permanent move - I would expect to become a citizen of my new home country after a while. You can't really complain if we tell you you can no longer vote in UK elections because your connection with the UK is too long ago.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,941

    PeterC said:

    welshowl said:

    Got to say I disagree with the PB majority. I think some are getting carried away by the polling. Whilst good for Leave, we're over three weeks from the vote, and the leads are very small.

    If EU citizens not eligible to vote are getting polling cards, that's many (hundreds of thousands?) voters likely to vote Remain.

    And unless they are Cypriot, Maltese, or Irish surely it will be illegal with all that results in both individually and for the referendum?
    Does receipt of a polling card imply eligibility to vote? Logically it should do, but perhaps the Authority has sent poll cards out to everyone but will issue ballot papers only to UK residents. I wonder if this is happening in all Authorities or just the few highlighted so far.
    The likelihood is that a computer system has wrongly been set to treat the referendum as a national rather than local one.
    Cock up or conspiracy though? Most of the errors seen so far have looked to favour Remain, is this because the Leave campaign are better at spotting things wrong and reporting them, or is there a pattern to it? One really hopes that it's the former, a close result either way is probably heading for a court unfortunately.
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    dnaylordnaylor Posts: 2
    hunchman said:

    dnaylor said:

    Sort of

    Welcome to PB!

    And are you in the remain or leave camp?

    Switzerland is the best case study in my opinion as to how you can thrive outside the EU.
    Hi and thanks for the welcome, ive been around a while but never got myself involved in the discussions..
    I am in the Remain camp and Switzerland is one of my reasons. Switzerland is doing well but it relies heavily on Europe. They want a slice of the cake but have no seat at the table. In order to trade with the EU they have to pretty much adopt all European laws
  • Options
    Paul_BedfordshirePaul_Bedfordshire Posts: 3,632
    edited May 2016
    hunchman said:

    hunchman said:

    hunchman said:

    hunchman said:

    GBPUSD 1.4480 having been around the 1.47 handle before the 'poll annnouncement'.

    Sterling's in the move of a lifetime.

    I think you are posting in the wrong place. This isnt http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum.

    :)
    Oh god....'that site'. Once upon a time circa 2008 there were some decent posters on there....namely cgnao. Not so now me thinks!
    Ah the mysterious Cgnao.

    Cgnao saved me a fortune when I took note of him and moved my personal pension funds into a essentially a fixed interest rate account just before the ballon went up in 2007/8.

    Its not as good as it was but still useful to lurk on and off topic is hilarious.
    Haven't been on there for ages! I don't think anyone ever got to the bottom of cgnao's identity did they?
    I dont think so but I have my suspicions.

    Dont need to read this just look at the pictures lol.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/11805523/Doomsday-clock-for-global-market-crash-strikes-one-minute-to-midnight-as-central-banks-lose-control.html
    Its not him, I'm fairly sure with respect. Cgnao would be clever enough and realise from the lessons of history that the next 3.5 years into early 2020 are not going to be a repeat of 2008. The crisis is going to be caused by a collapse in confidence in the government and by extension the sovereign bond markets. Where is the big institutional money going to go that crudely has a choice between bonds and stocks.?..when placing cash is risky in the banks that are largely holding the bag with sovereign bonds. Look at BKX (bank stocks index) - its a decidedly bearish setup against a bullish one for stocks overall. You've got no alternative but to go into stocks......gold is largely the domain of the private investor. Stocks have never moved on PE ratios and earnings like some of the mor*ns claim - PE ratios were most elevated in the 2008 crash when earnings were negative in 2008Q4.

    When I say bullish on stocks overall - look at the Dow repeatedly challenging the 18500/18600 area - its like the Dow challenging the 1,000 area until the breakout at the umpteemth attempt off the August 1982 lows. One of my favourite Martin Armstrong quotes is....' the gods of Wall Street give you one attempt to sell the high' .......eg the summer of 1929. They don't give you many attempts as is the case with the Dow right now.

    Yes I suspect you are right. I bet Ficenic knew who used that mushroom cloud as an avatar though!

    The last evidence of CGNAO was last July in this HPC splinter forum

    http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=20140
  • Options
    JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,016
    Sandpit said:

    PeterC said:

    welshowl said:

    Got to say I disagree with the PB majority. I think some are getting carried away by the polling. Whilst good for Leave, we're over three weeks from the vote, and the leads are very small.

    If EU citizens not eligible to vote are getting polling cards, that's many (hundreds of thousands?) voters likely to vote Remain.

    And unless they are Cypriot, Maltese, or Irish surely it will be illegal with all that results in both individually and for the referendum?
    Does receipt of a polling card imply eligibility to vote? Logically it should do, but perhaps the Authority has sent poll cards out to everyone but will issue ballot papers only to UK residents. I wonder if this is happening in all Authorities or just the few highlighted so far.
    The likelihood is that a computer system has wrongly been set to treat the referendum as a national rather than local one.
    Cock up or conspiracy though? Most of the errors seen so far have looked to favour Remain, is this because the Leave campaign are better at spotting things wrong and reporting them, or is there a pattern to it? One really hopes that it's the former, a close result either way is probably heading for a court unfortunately.
    It shouldn't be a problem the councils in question have three weeks to remove EU citizens from the electoral roll and write to them telling them that the polling card was issued in error.
  • Options
    hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591

    hunchman said:


    Switzerland is the best case study in my opinion as to how you can thrive outside the EU.

    Switzerland did a good job keeping itself out of European balance of power politics long before the EU was thought of. It would be difficult to emulated them from where we are now.
    Agreed.......even if by rather dubious means in the Nazi area. But realistically, I don't see what else Switzerland could have done over the WW2 period to maintain a sort of 'neutrality' at that time.

    I respectfully disagree that it would be difficult to emulate them though. Switzerland has had the ideal balance of a free trade, low tax, high skill economy. The UK is good on the first point (although undermined by the EU), average on the second and lamentably poor on the third.....which gives a fair indication as to why the UK is very much in the middle of the road in terms of income levels amongst developed economy peers.
  • Options
    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,950
    hunchman said:

    hunchman said:

    hunchman said:

    hunchman said:

    GBPUSD 1.4480 having been around the 1.47 handle before the 'poll annnouncement'.

    Sterling's in the move of a lifetime.

    I think you are posting in the wrong place. This isnt http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum.

    :)
    Oh god....'that site'. Once upon a time circa 2008 there were some decent posters on there....namely cgnao. Not so now me thinks!
    Ah the mysterious Cgnao.

    Cgnao saved me a fortune when I took note of him and moved my personal pension funds into a essentially a fixed interest rate account just before the ballon went up in 2007/8.

    Its not as good as it was but still useful to lurk on and off topic is hilarious.
    Haven't been on there for ages! I don't think anyone ever got to the bottom of cgnao's identity did they?
    I dont think so but I have my suspicions.

    Dont need to read this just look at the pictures lol.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/11805523/Doomsday-clock-for-global-market-crash-strikes-one-minute-to-midnight-as-central-banks-lose-control.html
    Its not him, I'm fairly sure with respect. Cgnao would be clever enough and realise from the lessons of history that the next 3.5 years into early 2020 are not going to be a repeat of 2008. The crisis is going to be caused by a collapse in confidence in the government and by extension the sovereign bond markets. Where is the big institutional money going to go that crudely has a choice between bonds and stocks.?..when placing cash is risky in the banks that are largely holding the bag with sovereign bonds. Look at BKX (bank stocks index) - its a decidedly bearish setup against a bullish one for stocks overall. You've got no alternative but to go into stocks......gold is largely the domain of the private investor. Stocks have never moved on PE ratios and earnings like some of the mor*ns claim - PE ratios were most elevated in the 2008 crash when earnings were negative in 2008Q4.

    When I say bullish on stocks overall - look at the Dow repeatedly challenging the 18500/18600 area - its like the Dow challenging the 1,000 area until the breakout at the umpteemth attempt off the August 1982 lows. One of my favourite Martin Armstrong quotes is....' the gods of Wall Street give you one attempt to sell the high' .......eg the summer of 1929. They don't give you many attempts as is the case with the Dow right now.
    Do either of you know what happened to "spline", the handle of a poster on HPC who left about 2009/10? He was bloody good at predicting.
  • Options
    ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    Sandpit said:

    Jeremy Corbyn has apparently gone on holiday. Tells you all you need to know!!!

    Ha ha. Did he book it before the referendum was called, and couldn't let the day job get in the way of his well earned break? If he somehow ends up as PM, will he similarly plan his time months ahead and refuse to change his plans for anyone?
    You must have noticed that he doesn't have to go away to be on holiday.
  • Options
    geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,176
    edited May 2016

    geoffw said:

    geoffw said:

    Got to say I disagree with the PB majority. I think some are getting carried away by the polling. Whilst good for Leave, we're over three weeks from the vote, and the leads are very small.

    If EU citizens not eligible to vote are getting polling cards, that's many (hundreds of thousands?) voters likely to vote Remain.

    At the same time many thousands of Her Britannic Majesty's subjects living in Europe are completely disenfranchised thanks to HMG.
    How? Who that is a citizen and would normally hold the franchise in a General Election has been disenfranchised?
    Residency abroad for over 15 years disqualifies you. At the same time, unless you have a passport issued by the host country you cannot vote there.
    Seems unreasonably generous to me. Surely if you live abroad for that length of time you apply for that country's citizenship.
    Depends on circumstances. You opinion is just that. My spouse is still a Finnish citizen even though she has lived here for over 40 years, and she votes in her national elections. I think the time-limited period of UK citizenship for ex-pats is unique to the UK. It was proposed but not enacted by Labour under Blair/Brown (probably because they thought "all these ex-pats are Tories"), but the legislation was put through by the ConLib coalition.
    Btw a petition to "Extend Eu referendum voting rights to all UK citizens living abroad" was closed on 17th May with 19,033 signatures. In its reply to the petition the Government said, inter alia,

    The Government is committed to scrapping the time limit on voting from overseas at parliamentary elections, and intends to bring forward an Overseas Electors Bill to achieve this. This will need to be debated and approved by Parliament before it can become law, and it is highly unlikely this will be in time for the EU referendum.

    Could have shot themselves in the foot there.

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    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    dnaylor said:

    hunchman said:

    dnaylor said:

    Sort of

    Welcome to PB!

    And are you in the remain or leave camp?

    Switzerland is the best case study in my opinion as to how you can thrive outside the EU.
    Hi and thanks for the welcome, ive been around a while but never got myself involved in the discussions..
    I am in the Remain camp and Switzerland is one of my reasons. Switzerland is doing well but it relies heavily on Europe. They want a slice of the cake but have no seat at the table. In order to trade with the EU they have to pretty much adopt all European laws
    Yet they do not want to join the EU. Why do you think that is?
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    Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    edited May 2016
    Sky news.

    "A former Miss Turkey has been convicted of insulting the country's president, prompting free speech advocates to raise concerns about the erosion of rights.. The court found 27-year-old model Merve Buyuksarac guilty of insulting a public official by sharing a satirical poem on her Instagram account.
    While the poem did not mention President Recep Tayyip Erdogan by name, it alluded to a corruption scandal that allegedly involved his family. Ms Buyuksarac, who was crowned Miss Turkey in 2006, was handed a 14-month suspended sentence on the condition she does not reoffend within five years."

    " guilty of insulting a public official". Wow...

    Wont be long before the EU jumps on that particular band wagon. Then we won't be able to refer to any EU public official as the dickheads they commonly are but only cower in their presence in total adulation while scattering rose petals at their feet and placing garlands of vines around their heads.
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    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,950

    Got to say I disagree with the PB majority. I think some are getting carried away by the polling. Whilst good for Leave, we're over three weeks from the vote, and the leads are very small.

    If EU citizens not eligible to vote are getting polling cards, that's many (hundreds of thousands?) voters likely to vote Remain.

    Please do not spoil this brief period of fun for LEAVE.
    I don't think it's brief.
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    Moses_ said:

    Sky news.

    A former Miss Turkey has been convicted of insulting the country's president, prompting free speech advocates to raise concerns about the erosion of rights.. The court found 27-year-old model Merve Buyuksarac guilty of insulting a public official by sharing a satirical poem on her Instagram account.
    While the poem did not mention President Recep Tayyip Erdogan by name, it alluded to a corruption scandal that allegedly involved his family. Ms Buyuksarac, who was crowned Miss Turkey in 2006, was handed a 14-month suspended sentence on the condition she does not reoffend within five years.

    " guilty of insulting a public official". Wow...

    Wont be long before the EU jumps on that particular band wagon. Then we won't be able to refer to any EU public official as the dickheads they commonly are but only cower in their presence in total adulation while scattering rose petals at their feet and placing garlands of vines around their heads.

    This chap is beginning to get my goat
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,941

    Sandpit said:

    Jeremy Corbyn has apparently gone on holiday. Tells you all you need to know!!!

    Ha ha. Did he book it before the referendum was called, and couldn't let the day job get in the way of his well earned break? If he somehow ends up as PM, will he similarly plan his time months ahead and refuse to change his plans for anyone?
    You must have noticed that he doesn't have to go away to be on holiday.
    Well quite. One can imagine him not bothering to turn up for the emergency vote of confidence in the government, because he had that afternoon in his diary to be tending the allotment.

    I know the other choices weren't exactly stellar, but really what were Labour thinking when they elected JC?
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    MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642

    hunchman said:

    hunchman said:

    GBPUSD 1.4480 having been around the 1.47 handle before the 'poll annnouncement'.

    Sterling's high overnight at 1.4724 failed to take out the 1.4763 corrective high on May 3rd - known as a failed 5th in Elliott Wave terms as part of the larger correction off the 1.3883 lows post Boris announcing he was going to campaign on the leave side.

    This is a decidedly BEARISH setup....irrespective of the outcome on the 23rd June.

    Also note the weakness in the Dow today vis a vis the S&P. The smart money is getting out before quite a stock market correction coming up. Its a false move(including gold that will ideally fall to the $900 area) ......before we get into the sovereign debt crisis proper (I think starting January 2017) when it will be stocks / gold / dollar up, bonds / property / debt down in the move of a lifetime.

    I think you are posting in the wrong place. This isnt http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum.

    :)
    Oh god....'that site'. Once upon a time circa 2008 there were some decent posters on there....namely cgnao. Not so now me thinks!
    Ah the mysterious Cgnao.

    Cgnao saved me a fortune when I took note of him and moved my personal pension funds into a essentially a fixed interest rate account just before the ballon went up in 2007/8.

    Its not as good as it was but still useful to lurk on and off topic is hilarious.
    I always found HPC members trolling Mumsnet amusing.
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    hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591

    http://www.politico.com/story/2016/05/clinton-trump-romney-wealth-223712

    Clinton has the innovative idea of replaying Obama's campaign against Romney with Trump.

    “Donald Trump is a pretty nontraditional candidate, but in a lot of ways we’re about to see a very traditional campaign, because it works,” said one former top Obama campaign official. “We beat the drum on Romney for months on jobs and his record, calling him out of touch with most Americans — for months — through paid media, candidate appearances, using surrogates.”

    “I don’t think it’s a mistake,” he added. “But I don’t think we’ll know if it’s a mistake for months."

    Hilary feeling the need to go to California to campaign and see off the Sanders threat tells you everything you need to know about the current state of her campaign. And as for aping Obama against Romney......haven't things moved on a bit in the past 4 years as to the average American and his / her confidence in government? Whatever one thinks of Trump, he is profiting from precisely the loss of confidence in government over that time. 'Change you can believe in' - that would go down like a lead balloon in the current climate.
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    JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,016
    edited May 2016
    geoffw said:

    geoffw said:

    geoffw said:

    Got to say I disagree with the PB majority. I think some are getting carried away by the polling. Whilst good for Leave, we're over three weeks from the vote, and the leads are very small.

    If EU citizens not eligible to vote are getting polling cards, that's many (hundreds of thousands?) voters likely to vote Remain.

    At the same time many thousands of Her Britannic Majesty's subjects living in Europe are completely disenfranchised thanks to HMG.
    How? Who that is a citizen and would normally hold the franchise in a General Election has been disenfranchised?
    Residency abroad for over 15 years disqualifies you. At the same time, unless you have a passport issued by the host country you cannot vote there.
    Seems unreasonably generous to me. Surely if you live abroad for that length of time you apply for that country's citizenship.
    Depends on circumstances. You opinion is just that. My spouse is still a Finnish citizen even though she has lived here for over 40 years, and she votes in her national elections. I think the time-limited period of UK citizenship for ex-pats is unique to the UK. It was proposed but not enacted by Labour under Blair/Brown (probably because they thought "all these ex-pats are Tories"), but the legislation was put through by the ConLib coalition.
    Btw a petition to "Extend Eu referendum voting rights to all UK citizens living abroad" was closed on 17th May with 19,033 signatures. In its reply to the petition the Government said, inter alia,

    The Government is committed to scrapping the time limit on voting from overseas at parliamentary elections, and intends to bring forward an Overseas Electors Bill to achieve this. This will need to be debated and approved by Parliament before it can become law, and it is highly unlikely this will be in time for the EU referendum.

    Could have shot themselves in the foot there.

    I tend to think you should vote in the jurisdiction where you live and pay taxes.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,130
    hunchman said:

    I respectfully disagree that it would be difficult to emulate them though. Switzerland has had the ideal balance of a free trade, low tax, high skill economy. The UK is good on the first point (although undermined by the EU), average on the second and lamentably poor on the third.....which gives a fair indication as to why the UK is very much in the middle of the road in terms of income levels amongst developed economy peers.

    I think the most significant difference is that because of its size, the UK's weight will always be felt in European affairs in a way that Switzerland can avoid. We change the balance and therefore other actors will inevitably draw us into their intrigues whether we like it or not. This wouldn't fundamentally change if we were outside the EU. Giving us what would be perceived as 'free-loader' status would grate on the remaining members of the EU.
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    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,994
    dnaylor said:

    hunchman said:

    dnaylor said:

    Sort of

    Welcome to PB!

    And are you in the remain or leave camp?

    Switzerland is the best case study in my opinion as to how you can thrive outside the EU.
    Hi and thanks for the welcome, ive been around a while but never got myself involved in the discussions..
    I am in the Remain camp and Switzerland is one of my reasons. Switzerland is doing well but it relies heavily on Europe. They want a slice of the cake but have no seat at the table. In order to trade with the EU they have to pretty much adopt all European laws
    Um. You may live in Switzerland but you seem strangely ill informed about their relationship with the EU. Switzerland only adopts a very limited amount of EU law directly related to the single market and it does that through individual bilateral treaties rather than having it imposed automatically from the EU.

    http://ec.europa.eu/trade/policy/countries-and-regions/countries/switzerland/

    It was estimated by the EFTA secretariat that Switzerland complies with just under 4% of EU legislation.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,989
    edited May 2016
    Re: 15 year overseas disenfranchisement.

    I though the 15 year rule was introduced under Thatcher?
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    viewcode said:

    Got to say I disagree with the PB majority. I think some are getting carried away by the polling. Whilst good for Leave, we're over three weeks from the vote, and the leads are very small.

    If EU citizens not eligible to vote are getting polling cards, that's many (hundreds of thousands?) voters likely to vote Remain.

    Please do not spoil this brief period of fun for LEAVE.
    I don't think it's brief.
    Ah but the hope may kill us.
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    EPGEPG Posts: 6,016
    Britain doesn't have just one culture, and attempts to define British mores devolve into silliness when you compare Fermanagh to Lowestoft or Aberdeen or Liverpool. So it seems ambitious to hope EU migrants will adopt British mores like a drop in a bucket of water, when there is no such homogenous thing.

    Thus let's cut out the PC. A lot of the immigration reductionists want Muslims to be stopped coming into the UK or even want Muslims born in Britain to be encouraged to leave. At the least, they want Muslims to keep quiet and leave the public sphere to atheists, Christians, Jews, and other accepted religions. But for some reason they are supporting an EU referendum to reduce the numbers of Poles and Irish who will move to the UK without doing anything to achieve what they really want.
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    ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Jeremy Corbyn has apparently gone on holiday. Tells you all you need to know!!!

    Ha ha. Did he book it before the referendum was called, and couldn't let the day job get in the way of his well earned break? If he somehow ends up as PM, will he similarly plan his time months ahead and refuse to change his plans for anyone?
    You must have noticed that he doesn't have to go away to be on holiday.
    Well quite. One can imagine him not bothering to turn up for the emergency vote of confidence in the government, because he had that afternoon in his diary to be tending the allotment.

    I know the other choices weren't exactly stellar, but really what were Labour thinking when they elected JC?
    Labour; thinking, that's a bit of a stretch.
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    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,994
    EPG said:

    Britain doesn't have just one culture, and attempts to define British mores devolve into silliness when you compare Fermanagh to Lowestoft or Aberdeen or Liverpool. So it seems ambitious to hope EU migrants will adopt British mores like a drop in a bucket of water, when there is no such homogenous thing.

    Thus let's cut out the PC. A lot of the immigration reductionists want Muslims to be stopped coming into the UK or even want Muslims born in Britain to be encouraged to leave. At the least, they want Muslims to keep quiet and leave the public sphere to atheists, Christians, Jews, and other accepted religions. But for some reason they are supporting an EU referendum to reduce the numbers of Poles and Irish who will move to the UK without doing anything to achieve what they really want.

    I am trying to think of a polite word to describe what you just wrote there.

    Ah lets cut out the PC. What you wrote is bollocks.
This discussion has been closed.