Got to say I disagree with the PB majority. I think some are getting carried away by the polling. Whilst good for Leave, we're over three weeks from the vote, and the leads are very small.
If EU citizens not eligible to vote are getting polling cards, that's many (hundreds of thousands?) voters likely to vote Remain.
Oh. let us have our fun.
The REMAINIACS are now visibly and palpably terrified, after weeks and months of sneering and gloating and endless PB threaders on the "awfulness of the LEAVE campaign" (now leading).
The INNERS are eating crow. Good.
Where exactly are these jelly-bellies of which you speak?
Suppose Brexit wins, Cameron resigns, Boris (or another Brexit supporter) is elected Con leader (and thus becomes PM).
Boris (or whoever) then calls a GE to get a fresh mandate (I realise Lab would have to agree to get round Fixed Term Parliament Act - but Lab surely couldn't reject the chance of winning a GE).
Now my question - what would Lab's policy be re Brexit? Would Lab just say it would negotiate Brexit? Even when 90% of Lab MPs don't support it? And not a single member of Shadow Cabinet supports it?
But if Lab said they wouldn't go ahead with Brexit, they would be completely ridiculed as not following the wishes of the electorate. That would surely lead to electoral wipe-out - and I mean real wipe-out - say under 150 seats.
One fascinating consequence of Brexit would be Anglo Russian relations. Putin being the much under-estimated clever politician that he is can clearly see the Russian interest in Brexit, and the resulting (calculated) weakening of the NATO alliance.
Yes, and if Trump wins, the NATO alliance is going to have some hard questions asked of it even without Brexit so the realities of hard power can't be ignored.
It would be fascinating in some ways to see an EU behemoth sandwiched between an independent UK and Russia.
Didn't Enoch Powell advocate an Anglo-Russian alliance?
Sounded very odd during the Cold War, but they were our allies during the Napoleonic Wars and both World Wars.
"It's like watching a nation write its own AV thread!"
How long do you think it would take the EU to negotiate one compared to the UK?
That of course is completely unknowable, and also of course irrelevant to the original point
It isn't on either score. The EU takes donkeys years. Australia can knock them out in 18 to 24 months.
Bottom line is that we can do deals with who we want, and at speed.
The point being that the EU isn't interested in what we want by way of trade deals. Which is why other countries do include services in their deals but the EU does not.
Regular lurker here - but I rarely post. Anyway, a question has come to mind that I've not yet seen discussed - what (if anything) does the display of posters/signs/banners tell us about the states of the campaign?
I've driven well over 1000 miles for work in the last 10 days covering locations from Carlisle to Milton Keynes, including bits of Derby, Stoke on Trent, Sheffield, etc. I've seen quite a few leave posters in all these places, both official and various standards of home-made, but I've yet to spot a single remain poster. It's totally unlikely a GE, where while often a party dominates an area's signage, you can usually even find the odd lib dem banner if you look hard enough, and the signage ratios change by location (e.g. the estate where I live usually has mainly labour posters, the farmers in the rural surroundings vote tory) - this time round it feels like there isn't a remain campaign to have posters.
I've no idea if this signifies anything more significant that the remain campaign not being so generous dishing out posters, but I do find myself wondering if it's a pointer to something more substantial.
Looking at the front pages, Boris and Gove are going for the Australian points system for our immigration system were Brexit to win.
If we were to leave, I think that would be pretty sensible.
Shows how low we've sunk, we're copying ideas from a nation of convicts.
At least they are our convicts
"You're all gonna die. The only question is how you check out. Do you want it on your feet? Or on your fuckin' knees... begging? I ain't much for begging! Nobody ever gave me nothing! So I say *fuck* that thing! Let's fight it!"
Thanks for responses - I think it looks as if the most likely answer is that there wouldn't be a GE.
ie Lab would refuse or Boris wouldn't take the risk of Lab refusing. Repealing Fixed Term Act is a non-starter as would be far too messy / take too long.
So no GE and Boris would just have to get on with Brexit.
Regular lurker here - but I rarely post. Anyway, a question has come to mind that I've not yet seen discussed - what (if anything) does the display of posters/signs/banners tell us about the states of the campaign?
I've driven well over 1000 miles for work in the last 10 days covering locations from Carlisle to Milton Keynes, including bits of Derby, Stoke on Trent, Sheffield, etc. I've seen quite a few leave posters in all these places, both official and various standards of home-made, but I've yet to spot a single remain poster. It's totally unlikely a GE, where while often a party dominates an area's signage, you can usually even find the odd lib dem banner if you look hard enough, and the signage ratios change by location (e.g. the estate where I live usually has mainly labour posters, the farmers in the rural surroundings vote tory) - this time round it feels like there isn't a remain campaign to have posters.
I've no idea if this signifies anything more significant that the remain campaign not being so generous dishing out posters, but I do find myself wondering if it's a pointer to something more substantial.
I have also seen quite a few "Vote Leave" posters in windows over the past couple of weeks (around Chester & Ellesmere Port), but yet to see a "Remain" poster.
Regular lurker here - but I rarely post. Anyway, a question has come to mind that I've not yet seen discussed - what (if anything) does the display of posters/signs/banners tell us about the states of the campaign?
I've driven well over 1000 miles for work in the last 10 days covering locations from Carlisle to Milton Keynes, including bits of Derby, Stoke on Trent, Sheffield, etc. I've seen quite a few leave posters in all these places, both official and various standards of home-made, but I've yet to spot a single remain poster. It's totally unlikely a GE, where while often a party dominates an area's signage, you can usually even find the odd lib dem banner if you look hard enough, and the signage ratios change by location (e.g. the estate where I live usually has mainly labour posters, the farmers in the rural surroundings vote tory) - this time round it feels like there isn't a remain campaign to have posters.
I've no idea if this signifies anything more significant that the remain campaign not being so generous dishing out posters, but I do find myself wondering if it's a pointer to something more substantial.
If you look at indyref the posters were about 90% Yes 10% No, I don't think it signifies much other than those backing the status quo don't want to be seen as unpatriotic and have their windows smashed in or their fences vandalised!
Regular lurker here - but I rarely post. Anyway, a question has come to mind that I've not yet seen discussed - what (if anything) does the display of posters/signs/banners tell us about the states of the campaign?
I've driven well over 1000 miles for work in the last 10 days covering locations from Carlisle to Milton Keynes, including bits of Derby, Stoke on Trent, Sheffield, etc. I've seen quite a few leave posters in all these places, both official and various standards of home-made, but I've yet to spot a single remain poster. It's totally unlikely a GE, where while often a party dominates an area's signage, you can usually even find the odd lib dem banner if you look hard enough, and the signage ratios change by location (e.g. the estate where I live usually has mainly labour posters, the farmers in the rural surroundings vote tory) - this time round it feels like there isn't a remain campaign to have posters.
I've no idea if this signifies anything more significant that the remain campaign not being so generous dishing out posters, but I do find myself wondering if it's a pointer to something more substantial.
I have also seen quite a few "Vote Leave" posters in windows over the past couple of weeks (around Chester & Ellesmere Port), but yet to see a "Remain" poster.
Interested to hear your feel on this Danny - my feel is that Leave has hardened a lot in the South in recent weeks. You seem to be a bit ahead of the curve on Labour member reactions to future developments...
Thanks for responses - I think it looks as if the most likely answer is that there wouldn't be a GE.
ie Lab would refuse or Boris wouldn't take the risk of Lab refusing. Repealing Fixed Term Act is a non-starter as would be far too messy / take too long.
So no GE and Boris would just have to get on with Brexit.
It would be Labour's greatest opportunity in British history to force the Conservatives into error after error.
Even Jeremy Corbyn could not mess it up as long as John McDonnell is in the room.
O/T - if its a Sunday mens final in the French Open, could Rome repeat itself and favour Mr Murray? Just the small matter of Gasquet...and Wawrinka(?) to overcome before that though!
It isn't on either score. The EU takes donkeys years. Australia can knock them out in 18 to 24 months.
Oh dear.
The Hovercraft woman wants to vote Out "because the EU has no trade deal with Brazil"
If we vote Leave, on the 24th, she still won't be able to sell her Hovercraft any easier than now.
It is possible (but not knowable) that in the process of negotiating trade deals with everyone in the World, including our largest market the EU, Brexit Britain could sign a trade deal to sell Hovercraft to Brazil earlier than the EU concludes such a deal, but that is unknowable, and irrelevant.
That just paid for the 40 years of services and governance you enjoyed (or laboured under depending on your outlook). I see no reason why it should qualify you to continue to take part in the decision making once you have decided to leave.
That's a very post-modern view of the nation state as being not so much a nation, but merely a council. In my view if you're British, you're British, and it's not unreasonable to think that you might care enough about the future of Britain for your vote to be worth something.
A very good article. However it does not address the two main classes of non-economic immigrant: spouses and children of British citizens, and students
MEPs On The Move: 'Madness Of Strasbourg Shift' Once a month the European Parliament moves from Brussels to Strasbourg at a cost of £150m a year as lorries transport paperwork.
O/T - if its a Sunday mens final in the French Open, could Rome repeat itself and favour Mr Murray? Just the small matter of Gasquet...and Wawrinka(?) to overcome before that though!
I saw a stat earlier that Murray is something like 16-1 when playing people in their "home" tournaments, such as Gasquet in France
Regular lurker here - but I rarely post. Anyway, a question has come to mind that I've not yet seen discussed - what (if anything) does the display of posters/signs/banners tell us about the states of the campaign?
I've driven well over 1000 miles for work in the last 10 days covering locations from Carlisle to Milton Keynes, including bits of Derby, Stoke on Trent, Sheffield, etc. I've seen quite a few leave posters in all these places, both official and various standards of home-made, but I've yet to spot a single remain poster. It's totally unlikely a GE, where while often a party dominates an area's signage, you can usually even find the odd lib dem banner if you look hard enough, and the signage ratios change by location (e.g. the estate where I live usually has mainly labour posters, the farmers in the rural surroundings vote tory) - this time round it feels like there isn't a remain campaign to have posters.
I've no idea if this signifies anything more significant that the remain campaign not being so generous dishing out posters, but I do find myself wondering if it's a pointer to something more substantial.
I have also seen quite a few "Vote Leave" posters in windows over the past couple of weeks (around Chester & Ellesmere Port), but yet to see a "Remain" poster.
morally bankrupt, pathologically venal and dangerously unstable
no particular fan of Hilary, but which of these doesn't apply to the Donald, too?
None of them, with my amateur psychology hat on. Anyhow, I've known women like Clinton up close and personal. Bad, bad news...
But DYOR.
I doubt you have ever met Hillary, nor know her at all.
Whereas, you are one of her Flying Monkeys, I suppose...
So you're saying she's a witch, the same way you said Obama was a lying Kenyan.
Confusing me with someone else. His father was a (British) Kenyan, which he concedes himself.
Not what the Founders, Framers and Ratifiers had in mind for father of a POTUS.
Isn't anyone born in the US eligible to be the President? (he says as he hears the sound of an enormous can of worms being opened)
Of course not.
The words "born in the US" are at least as easy to say as - I'm sure you'll concede - the words "natural born citizen." Ergo there was no earthly reason - if that was what the Founders meant - for them not to say it. Moreover, we know that is not what they meant, since they specifically rejected the former words for the latter...
The Supreme Court told us what they meant in 1875.
"The Constitution does not, in words, say who shall be natural-born citizens. Resort must be had elsewhere to ascertain that. At common-law, with the nomenclature of which the framers of the Constitution were familiar, it was never doubted that all children born in a country of parents who were its citizens became themselves, upon their birth, citizens also. These were natives, or natural-born citizens, as distinguished from aliens or foreigners."
MEPs On The Move: 'Madness Of Strasbourg Shift' Once a month the European Parliament moves from Brussels to Strasbourg at a cost of £150m a year as lorries transport paperwork.
Disagree. Remain may lose anyway but by far its best chance is to hammer the economic stuff over and over and over.
If that is truly their best chance, then we're Leaving.
If I were in the Remain campaign right now, I'd be looking to put forward as much UK legislation to distract from the one major law that cannot be changed - freedom of movement. And stop talking down to people.
It isn't on either score. The EU takes donkeys years. Australia can knock them out in 18 to 24 months.
Oh dear.
The Hovercraft woman wants to vote Out "because the EU has no trade deal with Brazil"
If we vote Leave, on the 24th, she still won't be able to sell her Hovercraft any easier than now.
It is possible (but not knowable) that in the process of negotiating trade deals with everyone in the World, including our largest market the EU, Brexit Britain could sign a trade deal to sell Hovercraft to Brazil earlier than the EU concludes such a deal, but that is unknowable, and irrelevant.
You are a troll or an idiot. Why would she care what the deal is on the 24th? Is she only intending to vote for one day and ignore the rest of her LIFE?
It is not irrelevant that we could and likely will sign deals with growing economies faster than the sclerotic and moribund EU. It is irrelevant that it won't have been done within 24 hours of the vote.
Regular lurker here - but I rarely post. Anyway, a question has come to mind that I've not yet seen discussed - what (if anything) does the display of posters/signs/banners tell us about the states of the campaign?
I've driven well over 1000 miles for work in the last 10 days covering locations from Carlisle to Milton Keynes, including bits of Derby, Stoke on Trent, Sheffield, etc. I've seen quite a few leave posters in all these places, both official and various standards of home-made, but I've yet to spot a single remain poster. It's totally unlikely a GE, where while often a party dominates an area's signage, you can usually even find the odd lib dem banner if you look hard enough, and the signage ratios change by location (e.g. the estate where I live usually has mainly labour posters, the farmers in the rural surroundings vote tory) - this time round it feels like there isn't a remain campaign to have posters.
I've no idea if this signifies anything more significant that the remain campaign not being so generous dishing out posters, but I do find myself wondering if it's a pointer to something more substantial.
Interesting. I haven't seen a remain poster anywhere either. I don't think people want to show there colours as much maybe.
MEPs On The Move: 'Madness Of Strasbourg Shift' Once a month the European Parliament moves from Brussels to Strasbourg at a cost of £150m a year as lorries transport paperwork.
The comments are weird. About five days ago, there was a consensus that LEAVE'S DOOMED. Now the consensus is REMAIN'S DOOMED. One thing's for sure: it's hardly an indicator of feeling in the country as a whole.
Looking at the front pages, Boris and Gove are going for the Australian points system for our immigration system were Brexit to win.
Very clever. It says THIS IS IT. This is our system. No ifs, no buts, no bollocks.
And they've waited a while to do it.
I suspect Dave and Remain are going to crank it up 110 on the economy.
It's going to come down to 3 million jobs versus 3 million immigrants.
Its a case of does leave neutralise the economic arguments effectively? Or does remain neutralise the immigration arguments effectively? My gut instinct is that economics trumps immigration, and as I said last night, for those whom immigration is most important, they're already in the leave camp and not in play. Leave have to neutralise the economic question to level pegging, just like Blair neutralised the question of tax with the Tories in the run up to 1997. If leave can do that over the next 23 days then immigration will decide it. If not then it will be a narrow defeat, but Brexit will remain on the political docket just as the SINDY result was sufficiently close not to put the issue to bed like the unionist camp hoped it would.
More than 300,000 new EU immigrants per year is certainly not a winning message.
...who are coming because our economy is booming.
Osborne actually predicted this on the BBC show earlier.
"You can reduce immigration by crashing the economy"
Which is exactly what the Brexiteers are proposing.
It's Genius. Can't possibly fail...
So, to precis, you basically don't care about immigration?
This sounds pretty similar to the remain campaign. And it is not working.
Immigration is an important issue for a large number of British voters, for various fundamental reasons.
And Remain's response is somewhere between 'LALALALALA' and 'but if we leave you'll be poorer'. For those impacted by immigration, who are already poorer and see their children becoming increasingly so, that threat is simply worthless. It baffles me that this PM doesn't get this. It baffles me more that our hopeless party leadership doesn't understand that it needs to fix it to heal the party as well as helping the country.
We need not trouble ourselves with what Corbyn might want to do in the event of a Leave result, but McDonnell is not completely stupid. The strategy is so blindingly obvious that there is no chance of McDonnell getting it wrong: wait for the economic collapse and the concomitant continuation of the Tory civil war (remember, there will be a leadership contest in the midst of the economic chaos), and blame the whole sorry mess on the Tories. This is a winning strategy by any standard, although the fact that Labour have managed to mislay Scotland is a complicating factor.
Disagree. Remain may lose anyway but by far its best chance is to hammer the economic stuff over and over and over.
If that is truly their best chance, then we're Leaving.
If I were in the Remain campaign right now, I'd be looking to put forward as much UK legislation to distract from the one major law that cannot be changed - freedom of movement. And stop talking down to people.
If it becomes a referendum on immigration then Leave will win regardless of any pootling around like that. Remain's best chance is to keep repeating that the electorate can do this but it will cost lots and lots and lots of their money.
It isn't on either score. The EU takes donkeys years. Australia can knock them out in 18 to 24 months.
Oh dear.
The Hovercraft woman wants to vote Out "because the EU has no trade deal with Brazil"
If we vote Leave, on the 24th, she still won't be able to sell her Hovercraft any easier than now.
It is possible (but not knowable) that in the process of negotiating trade deals with everyone in the World, including our largest market the EU, Brexit Britain could sign a trade deal to sell Hovercraft to Brazil earlier than the EU concludes such a deal, but that is unknowable, and irrelevant.
You are a troll or an idiot. Why would she care what the deal is on the 24th? Is she only intending to vote for one day and ignore the rest of her LIFE?
It is not irrelevant that we could and likely will sign deals with growing economies faster than the sclerotic and moribund EU. It is irrelevant that it won't have been done within 24 hours of the vote.
Brazils economy is not looking very dynamic at present, it is being outperformed by Greece!
It isn't on either score. The EU takes donkeys years. Australia can knock them out in 18 to 24 months.
Oh dear.
The Hovercraft woman wants to vote Out "because the EU has no trade deal with Brazil"
If we vote Leave, on the 24th, she still won't be able to sell her Hovercraft any easier than now.
It is possible (but not knowable) that in the process of negotiating trade deals with everyone in the World, including our largest market the EU, Brexit Britain could sign a trade deal to sell Hovercraft to Brazil earlier than the EU concludes such a deal, but that is unknowable, and irrelevant.
You are a troll or an idiot. Why would she care what the deal is on the 24th? Is she only intending to vote for one day and ignore the rest of her LIFE?
It is not irrelevant that we could and likely will sign deals with growing economies faster than the sclerotic and moribund EU. It is irrelevant that it won't have been done within 24 hours of the vote.
Brazils economy is not looking very dynamic at present, it is being outperformed by Greece!
Brazils economy shrank by 3.8% last year.
Yeah, but apparently Europe's dying. LEAVE wants to pursue free trade with... erm, China. And America, but they also hate TTIP.
....and remind me which economic area in the world has the highest overall unemployment rate? and 60% youth unemployment in parts?.
Detroit?
The latest I heard was that Detroit has started coming back.....although how long that will last with the mess that Illinois is in more generally with regard to pensions is open to question.........but this is all an aside, you know what I meant by economic area within a wider global sense!
Pull the other one. Talk about clutching at straws!
The mini-ice age with global cooling into 2030 is just getting started. And rather than just confine our discussion to just Austria and Germany, what about the very cold winter in Mexico over 2015/6? Snow recorded in Okinawa for the first time in recorded history last winter? And snow for the first time 200 miles south of Hanoi for the first time?
And in Obama's backyard in Washington DC an abnormally cold May with remarkably few days above 80F for the month?
Incidences of cold weather are piling up around the globe, and no amount of temperature manipulation by NOAA and their friends can hide what is becoming increasingly obvious that global temperatures are starting to cool, confirmed by raw non-manipulated satellite data.
You'll forgive me if I choose not to accompany you on your little Gish Gallop.
Let's stick to your original contention, shall we? The video you posted claimed that the destruction of vines by a late frost constitutes evidence against global warming. However, the spokewoman for the Austrian wine industry that I quoted explained that it had only been possible to grow the vines in question at these locations in the first place because the climate had warmed over the last few decades. The death of these vines is therefore not an indicator of a cooling climate; rather, the fact that they exist in the first place is evidence of a warming climate. The video completely misrepresents the situation.
We need not trouble ourselves with what Corbyn might want to do in the event of a Leave result, but McDonnell is not completely stupid. The strategy is so blindingly obvious that there is no chance of McDonnell getting it wrong: wait for the economic collapse and the concomitant continuation of the Tory civil war (remember, there will be a leadership contest in the midst of the economic chaos), and blame the whole sorry mess on the Tories. This is a winning strategy by any standard, although the fact that Labour have managed to mislay Scotland is a complicating factor.
Yes, the "price worth paying" stuff would come home to roost with a vengeance.
We need not trouble ourselves with what Corbyn might want to do in the event of a Leave result, but McDonnell is not completely stupid. The strategy is so blindingly obvious that there is no chance of McDonnell getting it wrong: wait for the economic collapse and the concomitant continuation of the Tory civil war (remember, there will be a leadership contest in the midst of the economic chaos), and blame the whole sorry mess on the Tories. This is a winning strategy by any standard, although the fact that Labour have managed to mislay Scotland is a complicating factor.
To be honest, if I were the Tory PM that followed Dave in the wake of Brexit, I would think nothing of pushing a repeat of the FTPA through the commons and creating (or perhaps just threatening to create) sufficient Lords to force it through the Lords.
It would make Labour look so chicken that it would cancel out any howling from any quarters.
Thanks for responses - I think it looks as if the most likely answer is that there wouldn't be a GE.
ie Lab would refuse or Boris wouldn't take the risk of Lab refusing. Repealing Fixed Term Act is a non-starter as would be far too messy / take too long.
So no GE and Boris would just have to get on with Brexit.
It would be Labour's greatest opportunity in British history to force the Conservatives into error after error.
Even Jeremy Corbyn could not mess it up as long as John McDonnell is in the room.
Yes, but even John McDonnell has to go to the loo....
It isn't on either score. The EU takes donkeys years. Australia can knock them out in 18 to 24 months.
Oh dear.
The Hovercraft woman wants to vote Out "because the EU has no trade deal with Brazil"
If we vote Leave, on the 24th, she still won't be able to sell her Hovercraft any easier than now.
It is possible (but not knowable) that in the process of negotiating trade deals with everyone in the World, including our largest market the EU, Brexit Britain could sign a trade deal to sell Hovercraft to Brazil earlier than the EU concludes such a deal, but that is unknowable, and irrelevant.
You are a troll or an idiot. Why would she care what the deal is on the 24th? Is she only intending to vote for one day and ignore the rest of her LIFE?
It is not irrelevant that we could and likely will sign deals with growing economies faster than the sclerotic and moribund EU. It is irrelevant that it won't have been done within 24 hours of the vote.
Brazils economy is not looking very dynamic at present, it is being outperformed by Greece!
Brazils economy shrank by 3.8% last year.
Is Brazil the only nation outside the EU? Nobody is proposing we put all our eggs in one basket, except Remain.
And even though Brazil has entered a recession last year, over the last decade it has grown substantially better than the Eurozone.
MEPs On The Move: 'Madness Of Strasbourg Shift' Once a month the European Parliament moves from Brussels to Strasbourg at a cost of £150m a year as lorries transport paperwork.
It isn't on either score. The EU takes donkeys years. Australia can knock them out in 18 to 24 months.
Oh dear.
The Hovercraft woman wants to vote Out "because the EU has no trade deal with Brazil"
If we vote Leave, on the 24th, she still won't be able to sell her Hovercraft any easier than now.
It is possible (but not knowable) that in the process of negotiating trade deals with everyone in the World, including our largest market the EU, Brexit Britain could sign a trade deal to sell Hovercraft to Brazil earlier than the EU concludes such a deal, but that is unknowable, and irrelevant.
No. The EU can't negotiate trade deals quickly, we can. We don't have the burden of 28 sets of vested interests we only have one.
We need not trouble ourselves with what Corbyn might want to do in the event of a Leave result, but McDonnell is not completely stupid. The strategy is so blindingly obvious that there is no chance of McDonnell getting it wrong: wait for the economic collapse and the concomitant continuation of the Tory civil war (remember, there will be a leadership contest in the midst of the economic chaos), and blame the whole sorry mess on the Tories. This is a winning strategy by any standard, although the fact that Labour have managed to mislay Scotland is a complicating factor.
....and remind me which economic area in the world has the highest overall unemployment rate? and 60% youth unemployment in parts?.
Detroit?
The latest I heard was that Detroit has started coming back.....although how long that will last with the mess that Illinois is in more generally with regard to pensions is open to question.........but this is all an aside, you know what I meant by economic area within a wider global sense!
Detroit is in Michigan. The most notable city in Illinois is Chicago. They are quite a long way apart.
So, to precis, you basically don't care about immigration?
I don't accept the Farage playbook that any problems we have can be solved by "blaming others for coming over here stealing our jobs"
Xenophobia is a problem, not the solution.
Immigration is a measure of how healthy the economy is, not how sick the country is.
If you want to crash the economy to "keep Johnny Foreigner" out, that's your prerogative, but I will not be joining you
Good grief, no wonder Remain are trailing in the latest polls.
If xenophobia is the only response Remain have to one of the major concerns of this nation, especially of those with the littlest hope, I can't wait to Leave.
The latest I heard was that Detroit has started coming back.....although how long that will last with the mess that Illinois is in more generally with regard to pensions is open to question.........but this is all an aside, you know what I meant by economic area within a wider global sense!
Actually I was making a semi-serious point. Greece is absolutely tiny, a lot smaller in GDP terms than Michigan. No-one claims that the US is a basket-case or close to collapsing because of the economic nightmare of Detroit, the murder rate in LA, or the illegal immigration problem in Texas. But the echo chamber of the Leavers gleefully jumps on any real or imaginary bad news anywhere in Europe (even if the bad news has absolutely zilch to do with the EU as such, let alone our membership of it) as somehow showing we should leave the EU.
....and remind me which economic area in the world has the highest overall unemployment rate? and 60% youth unemployment in parts?.
Detroit?
The latest I heard was that Detroit has started coming back.....although how long that will last with the mess that Illinois is in more generally with regard to pensions is open to question.........but this is all an aside, you know what I meant by economic area within a wider global sense!
Detroit is in Michigan. We did an event there last month. It's at the start of a very long journey.
We need not trouble ourselves with what Corbyn might want to do in the event of a Leave result, but McDonnell is not completely stupid. The strategy is so blindingly obvious that there is no chance of McDonnell getting it wrong: wait for the economic collapse and the concomitant continuation of the Tory civil war (remember, there will be a leadership contest in the midst of the economic chaos), and blame the whole sorry mess on the Tories. This is a winning strategy by any standard, although the fact that Labour have managed to mislay Scotland is a complicating factor.
A very good article. However it does not address the two main classes of non-economic immigrant: spouses and children of British citizens, and students
There are a number of things it does not cover, for length reasons, apart from anything else.
On the whole I think under age children and spouses should be together. But two points:-
1. We need to deal with abuses of the "right to family life". If you marry a foreigner you have to accept that you may be required to move with your spouse to their country e.g. If your spouse breaks laws and is no longer persona grata here. The right to family life is not inextricably linked to a life in the UK. It is perfectly possible to have a family life in many many other countries.
2. Partly also in reply to @stodge, just because one person in a family moves does not mean that all other members of that family should also be entitled to move to the same country. Both my parents left their families and home countries to move to the UK. Why should their parents and 11 siblings also have been entitled to move?
It is curious - and, IMO, not frankly tenable - to argue simultaneously for migration on a global scale and for extended families to live together all in the same place in a way which has not really existed here since the industrial Revolution. I mean, really, how many extended families live like that in Britain? Ask people in Cornish villages about the chances of their children getting to live in the same village they grew up in near Mum and Dad. And yet we're expected to be sanguine about a person arriving here from half-way round the world and expecting, demanding even, that their parents and siblings be allowed to move here. I think not. I think a lot of people will find this really quite unfair.
Pull the other one. Talk about clutching at straws!
e data.
You'll forgive me if I choose not to accompany you on your little Gish Gallop.
Let's stick to your original contention, shall we? The video you posted claimed that the destruction of vines by a late frost constitutes evidence against global warming. However, the spokewoman for the Austrian wine industry that I quoted explained that it had only been possible to grow the vines in question at these locations in the first place because the climate had warmed over the last few decades. The death of these vines is therefore not an indicator of a cooling climate; rather, the fact that they exist in the first place is evidence of a warming climate. The video completely misrepresents the situation.
Stop digging a deeper hole for yourself! Nobody is denying that the climate warmed between the mid-1970's (when incidentally some were predicting a new mini-ice age, just like analysts screaming sell at the bottom of a bear market in stocks!) and 1997/98.....thanks to the increasingly robust activity of the sun in solar cycles 21 and 22. Since then its turned down, and global temperatures (non-manipulated) are starting to do so too. And anyway, Austrian wine production was very high in the early 1980's before the chemical addition scandal broke in 1985.....at which point I guess some historical vineyards were done away with following it up until about 20 years ago, when yet again people were caught moving in the wrong direction at a long term change in trend. Wine growing in the eastern part of Austria has an extremely long history. And as I'm sure you're aware, vines were grown in northern England in the medieval warm period (as well as crops grown in eastern Greenland.....witness the clue in the name!)..........so by all means carry on using your warmest ever nonsense......anyone with an ounce of sense will see that its absolute bol*ox, not as though it will stop you for one moment I'm sure!
No. The EU can't negotiate trade deals quickly, we can. We don't have the burden of 28 sets of vested interests we only have one.
It isn't unknowable, it's known.
Err, you seem to have forgotten that (a) we'd have to make a lot of deals to replace existing ones, and (b) whilst we'd have a simpler set of vested interests on our side, we'd also have a lesser incentive on the other side to do a deal. It's cloud cuckoo-land to think this on balance would be hugely easier; rather the reverse, probably, as the US has made clear.
We need not trouble ourselves with what Corbyn might want to do in the event of a Leave result, but McDonnell is not completely stupid. The strategy is so blindingly obvious that there is no chance of McDonnell getting it wrong: wait for the economic collapse and the concomitant continuation of the Tory civil war (remember, there will be a leadership contest in the midst of the economic chaos), and blame the whole sorry mess on the Tories. This is a winning strategy by any standard, although the fact that Labour have managed to mislay Scotland is a complicating factor.
Though what if there is no economic collapse?
Let's hope that is the case. It's worth remembering the "scare stories" that the establishment No side were accused of telling about oil and the Scottish economy during the independence referendum turned out to be true.
Pull the other one. Talk about clutching at straws!
e data.
You'll forgive me if I choose not to accompany you on your little Gish Gallop.
Let's stick to your original contention, shall we? The video you posted claimed that the destruction of vines by a late frost constitutes evidence against global warming. However, the spokewoman for the Austrian wine industry that I quoted explained that it had only been possible to grow the vines in question at these locations in the first place because the climate had warmed over the last few decades. The death of these vines is therefore not an indicator of a cooling climate; rather, the fact that they exist in the first place is evidence of a warming climate. The video completely misrepresents the situation.
Stop digging a deeper hole for yourself! Nobody is denying that the climate warmed between the mid-1970's (when incidentally some were predicting a new mini-ice age, just like analysts screaming sell at the bottom of a bear market in stocks!) and 1997/98.....thanks to the increasingly robust activity of the sun in solar cycles 21 and 22. Since then its turned down, and global temperatures (non-manipulated) are starting to do so too. And anyway, Austrian wine production was very high in the early 1980's before the chemical addition scandal broke in 1985.....at which point I guess some historical vineyards were done away with following it up until about 20 years ago, when yet again people were caught moving in the wrong direction at a long term change in trend. Wine growing in the eastern part of Austria has an extremely long history. And as I'm sure you're aware, vines were grown in northern England in the medieval warm period (as well as crops grown in eastern Greenland.....witness the clue in the name!)..........so by all means carry on using your warmest ever nonsense......anyone with an ounce of sense will see that its absolute bol*ox, not as though it will stop you for one moment I'm sure!
It's June in less than one hour - not very June-like weather today!
....and remind me which economic area in the world has the highest overall unemployment rate? and 60% youth unemployment in parts?.
Detroit?
The latest I heard was that Detroit has started coming back.....although how long that will last with the mess that Illinois is in more generally with regard to pensions is open to question.........but this is all an aside, you know what I meant by economic area within a wider global sense!
Detroit is in Michigan. We did an event there last month. It's at the start of a very long journey.
Apologies, my mistake. There is a little village of Detroit in Illinois though! And the Michigan state pension scheme is in quite a mess too.
No. The EU can't negotiate trade deals quickly, we can. We don't have the burden of 28 sets of vested interests we only have one.
It isn't unknowable, it's known.
Err, you seem to have forgotten that (a) we'd have to make a lot of deals to replace existing ones, and (b) whilst we'd have a simpler set of vested interests on our side, we'd also have a lesser incentive on the other side to do a deal. It's cloud cuckoo-land to think this on balance would be hugely easier; rather the reverse, probably, as the US has made clear.
To be fair Iceland has done a trade deal with China. It was very quick as there was not much negotiation. We could take a similar approach.
We need not trouble ourselves with what Corbyn might want to do in the event of a Leave result, but McDonnell is not completely stupid. The strategy is so blindingly obvious that there is no chance of McDonnell getting it wrong: wait for the economic collapse and the concomitant continuation of the Tory civil war (remember, there will be a leadership contest in the midst of the economic chaos), and blame the whole sorry mess on the Tories. This is a winning strategy by any standard, although the fact that Labour have managed to mislay Scotland is a complicating factor.
Just to be clear, the economic abyss into which we will sink, according to the treasury (not me, or Leave) is 4 quarters of -0.1%. So hardly anything at all. And we are supposed to notice this over the effect of say a EURO area banking collapse in say Italy or Greece?
We need not trouble ourselves with what Corbyn might want to do in the event of a Leave result, but McDonnell is not completely stupid. The strategy is so blindingly obvious that there is no chance of McDonnell getting it wrong: wait for the economic collapse and the concomitant continuation of the Tory civil war (remember, there will be a leadership contest in the midst of the economic chaos), and blame the whole sorry mess on the Tories. This is a winning strategy by any standard, although the fact that Labour have managed to mislay Scotland is a complicating factor.
Though what if there is no economic collapse?
Let's hope that is the case. It's worth remembering the "scare stories" that the establishment No side were accused of telling about oil and the Scottish economy during the independence referendum turned out to be true.
Oil was a case of all the SNPs eggs being in one oil barrel though.
We need not trouble ourselves with what Corbyn might want to do in the event of a Leave result, but McDonnell is not completely stupid. The strategy is so blindingly obvious that there is no chance of McDonnell getting it wrong: wait for the economic collapse and the concomitant continuation of the Tory civil war (remember, there will be a leadership contest in the midst of the economic chaos), and blame the whole sorry mess on the Tories. This is a winning strategy by any standard, although the fact that Labour have managed to mislay Scotland is a complicating factor.
Just to be clear, the economic abyss into which we will sink, according to the treasury (not me, or Leave) is 4 quarters of -0.1%. So hardly anything at all. And we are supposed to notice this over the effect of say a EURO area banking collapse in say Italy or Greece?
We'll feel the affect whether we are in or out of the EU.
We need not trouble ourselves with what Corbyn might want to do in the event of a Leave result, but McDonnell is not completely stupid. The strategy is so blindingly obvious that there is no chance of McDonnell getting it wrong: wait for the economic collapse and the concomitant continuation of the Tory civil war (remember, there will be a leadership contest in the midst of the economic chaos), and blame the whole sorry mess on the Tories. This is a winning strategy by any standard, although the fact that Labour have managed to mislay Scotland is a complicating factor.
Though what if there is no economic collapse?
Let's hope that is the case. It's worth remembering the "scare stories" that the establishment No side were accused of telling about oil and the Scottish economy during the independence referendum turned out to be true.
That Unionist chestnut yet again! As I've said countless times on here on the subject, the appeal of Scottish independence was and is by and large an EMOTIONAL one, and not an ECONOMIC one.
The latest I heard was that Detroit has started coming back.....although how long that will last with the mess that Illinois is in more generally with regard to pensions is open to question.........but this is all an aside, you know what I meant by economic area within a wider global sense!
Actually I was making a semi-serious point. Greece is absolutely tiny, a lot smaller in GDP terms than Michigan. No-one claims that the US is a basket-case or close to collapsing because of the economic nightmare of Detroit, the murder rate in LA, or the illegal immigration problem in Texas. But the echo chamber of the Leavers gleefully jumps on any real or imaginary bad news anywhere in Europe (even if the bad news has absolutely zilch to do with the EU as such, let alone our membership of it) as somehow showing we should leave the EU.
You're comparing a city with a country. Maybe if only Athens was struggling then it'd be apt.
Greece has a population of 11 million people. Detroit has a population of 0.6 million.
Comments
Who does Peter Parker love the most, Gwen Stacy or Mary Jane?
For those persisting with IE11 and who get script errors on PB.. UNINSTALL Google toolbar
Am about to reinstall as it seems to clear the problem.. One could almost think Win10/IE11 was malicious to Google toolbar.. but we will see...
Square Root
Not what the Founders, Framers and Ratifiers had in mind for father of a POTUS.
Bottom line is that we can do deals with who we want, and at speed.
The point being that the EU isn't interested in what we want by way of trade deals. Which is why other countries do include services in their deals but the EU does not.
It's going to come down to 3 million jobs versus 3 million immigrants.
I've driven well over 1000 miles for work in the last 10 days covering locations from Carlisle to Milton Keynes, including bits of Derby, Stoke on Trent, Sheffield, etc.
I've seen quite a few leave posters in all these places, both official and various standards of home-made, but I've yet to spot a single remain poster.
It's totally unlikely a GE, where while often a party dominates an area's signage, you can usually even find the odd lib dem banner if you look hard enough, and the signage ratios change by location (e.g. the estate where I live usually has mainly labour posters, the farmers in the rural surroundings vote tory) - this time round it feels like there isn't a remain campaign to have posters.
I've no idea if this signifies anything more significant that the remain campaign not being so generous dishing out posters, but I do find myself wondering if it's a pointer to something more substantial.
ie Lab would refuse or Boris wouldn't take the risk of Lab refusing. Repealing Fixed Term Act is a non-starter as would be far too messy / take too long.
So no GE and Boris would just have to get on with Brexit.
No script errors on Edge. Firefox or Chrome..
Ironically, my bank cannot cope with Google Chrome Browser WTF????
You really couldn't make it up - more ridiculous economic scare stories that are par for the course as far as the Remain campaign are concerned.
Even Jeremy Corbyn could not mess it up as long as John McDonnell is in the room.
The Hovercraft woman wants to vote Out "because the EU has no trade deal with Brazil"
If we vote Leave, on the 24th, she still won't be able to sell her Hovercraft any easier than now.
It is possible (but not knowable) that in the process of negotiating trade deals with everyone in the World, including our largest market the EU, Brexit Britain could sign a trade deal to sell Hovercraft to Brazil earlier than the EU concludes such a deal, but that is unknowable, and irrelevant.
It is just this, over and over again: http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/05/16/mortimer-with-a-tip-for-the-more-adventurous-gamblers/
Be LEAVE!
MEPs On The Move: 'Madness Of Strasbourg Shift'
Once a month the European Parliament moves from Brussels to Strasbourg at a cost of £150m a year as lorries transport paperwork.
http://news.sky.com/story/1701639/meps-on-the-move-madness-of-strasbourg-shift
Utter lunacy from an elite that could not give a damn
The words "born in the US" are at least as easy to say as - I'm sure you'll concede - the words "natural born citizen." Ergo there was no earthly reason - if that was what the Founders meant - for them not to say it. Moreover, we know that is not what they meant, since they specifically rejected the former words for the latter...
The Supreme Court told us what they meant in 1875.
"The Constitution does not, in words, say who shall be natural-born citizens. Resort must be had elsewhere to ascertain that. At common-law, with the nomenclature of which the framers of the Constitution were familiar, it was never doubted that all children born in a country of parents who were its citizens became themselves, upon their birth, citizens also. These were natives, or natural-born citizens, as distinguished from aliens or foreigners."
Osborne actually predicted this on the BBC show earlier.
"You can reduce immigration by crashing the economy"
Which is exactly what the Brexiteers are proposing.
It's Genius. Can't possibly fail...
If I were in the Remain campaign right now, I'd be looking to put forward as much UK legislation to distract from the one major law that cannot be changed - freedom of movement. And stop talking down to people.
It is not irrelevant that we could and likely will sign deals with growing economies faster than the sclerotic and moribund EU. It is irrelevant that it won't have been done within 24 hours of the vote.
This sounds pretty similar to the remain campaign. And it is not working.
Immigration is an important issue for a large number of British voters, for various fundamental reasons.
And Remain's response is somewhere between 'LALALALALA' and 'but if we leave you'll be poorer'. For those impacted by immigration, who are already poorer and see their children becoming increasingly so, that threat is simply worthless. It baffles me that this PM doesn't get this. It baffles me more that our hopeless party leadership doesn't understand that it needs to fix it to heal the party as well as helping the country.
Brazils economy shrank by 3.8% last year.
Let's stick to your original contention, shall we? The video you posted claimed that the destruction of vines by a late frost constitutes evidence against global warming. However, the spokewoman for the Austrian wine industry that I quoted explained that it had only been possible to grow the vines in question at these locations in the first place because the climate had warmed over the last few decades. The death of these vines is therefore not an indicator of a cooling climate; rather, the fact that they exist in the first place is evidence of a warming climate. The video completely misrepresents the situation.
It would make Labour look so chicken that it would cancel out any howling from any quarters.
Xenophobia is a problem, not the solution.
Immigration is a measure of how healthy the economy is, not how sick the country is.
If you want to crash the economy to "keep Johnny Foreigner" out, that's your prerogative, but I will not be joining you
And even though Brazil has entered a recession last year, over the last decade it has grown substantially better than the Eurozone.
It isn't unknowable, it's known.
If xenophobia is the only response Remain have to one of the major concerns of this nation, especially of those with the littlest hope, I can't wait to Leave.
In the event of Brexit, UK to have signed a trade deal with Brazil before the EU does?
On the whole I think under age children and spouses should be together. But two points:-
1. We need to deal with abuses of the "right to family life". If you marry a foreigner you have to accept that you may be required to move with your spouse to their country e.g. If your spouse breaks laws and is no longer persona grata here. The right to family life is not inextricably linked to a life in the UK. It is perfectly possible to have a family life in many many other countries.
2. Partly also in reply to @stodge, just because one person in a family moves does not mean that all other members of that family should also be entitled to move to the same country. Both my parents left their families and home countries to move to the UK. Why should their parents and 11 siblings also have been entitled to move?
It is curious - and, IMO, not frankly tenable - to argue simultaneously for migration on a global scale and for extended families to live together all in the same place in a way which has not really existed here since the industrial Revolution. I mean, really, how many extended families live like that in Britain? Ask people in Cornish villages about the chances of their children getting to live in the same village they grew up in near Mum and Dad. And yet we're expected to be sanguine about a person arriving here from half-way round the world and expecting, demanding even, that their parents and siblings be allowed to move here. I think not. I think a lot of people will find this really quite unfair.
The same is not true here.
Greece has a population of 11 million people.
Detroit has a population of 0.6 million.