Mr. Eagles, isn't that neglecting Osborne asking MPs yet to decide their position on the referendum whether they were for Leave, or whether they wanted a career?
As even one Leaver admitted at the time, it was a joke by Osborne.
But most Leavers are happy to promulgate an inaccurate myth to help them win.
An inaccurate myth?
As opposed to the accurate ones promulgated by Remain?
HELP please ! Windows 10 has managed to infect itself onto my pc without my asking it to do so. Now I get script errors all over the place, unchecked the usual stuff on Internet options but it makes no difference. Do I just have to accept that IE is crap and switch to chrome, or is there a fix>?
TA
It would be easier to download W10, both in the short and long run. Unless,of course, you run a Mac, then you really are f*cked.
I initially recommended to update from W8 but not from W7, now I'm thinking that even W8 is better than 10. It is that dire. Macs have never sold better as people are getting totally fed up with MS pulling tricks like they just did with Mr @SquareRoot.
Not only have I script errors but now crackle on my speakers.. (no solutions offered by a quick google work) I am seriously pissed of with Microsoft, they tell you nothing will change, then they feck your pc up and you have to pay someone loads to sort it out.. its disgraceful.
Did you see my note below about how to undo the W10 'upgrade'? Send me a PM if you want a hand.
Also when you've got W7 or 8 back working, download a program called "GWX Control Panel" which stops the auto W10 updates from happening. http://blog.ultimateoutsider.com/2015/08/using-gwx-stopper-to-permanently-remove.html This last point goes for anyone who's fed up of W10 notifications and wants to stick with the operating system they have already.
Yes, I meant to say thanks but got distracted by script errors.. I'll be ok thanks , my brother is pretty clever at this sort of stuff, I'll put out an SOS to him!
I'm losing track, are Leavers claiming that Britain doesn't have a veto because, despite the plain words, Britain would never exercise a veto (though it has and recently)? Or is their claim that it doesn't have a veto because no one who would ever get to hold the office of Prime Minister would ever in practice oppose Turkey's membership because David Cameron has previously supported it as a long term goal?
Leaver logic gets steadily more elusive.
Spineless lickspittle Cameron would certainly not use it , future PM's merely conjecture but given past spineless tossers also unlikely.
Mr. Eagles, isn't that neglecting Osborne asking MPs yet to decide their position on the referendum whether they were for Leave, or whether they wanted a career?
As even one Leaver admitted at the time, it was a joke by Osborne.
But most Leavers are happy to promulgate an inaccurate myth to help them win.
An inaccurate myth?
As opposed to the accurate ones promulgated by Remain?
29 million Romanians and Bulgarians moving to the UK
''Leavers need to stop speaking from their hearts and reconnect with the real world.''
Or - 'Leavers need to stop thinking for themselves and starting doing as they are told'
No, paying attention to the most basic of facts will do.
There is a Leave case to be made, but not based on hysterical untruths.
"Hysterical untruths"
This from people that in event of Brexit threaten WW3 and nuclear Armageddon will start on Tuesday week but the real bad news is your pint of milk will be a penny dearer on Monday.
Direct quotes required from Remain campaigners for each of those claims. I think you'll struggle to find them.
Happy to accept your personal guarantee that any war in Europe would not escalate and end up nuclear of course. The last two away games ended up as World Wars of course.
Direct quotes mentioning World War 3 and nuclear Armageddon - none.
More Leaver truthiness: they invent a myth then parade it as fact.
Dancing on a pin Alistair as well as not addressing the "threats" made.
You also didn't provide me a guarantee.
The Prime Minister's actual words about the risk of Brexit on this front seem an entirely reasonable (though certainly opposable) view of what might happen. It is no secret that Russia is very hopeful for Brexit so that it can play divide and rule more effectively.
It is not dancing on a pin to ask for direct quotes, especially when your original claims for what was actually said were so quickly exposed as untrue.
UK is scared of shadows, bogey men everywhere. Putin must have a great laugh at the state of the UK.
I'm losing track, are Leavers claiming that Britain doesn't have a veto because, despite the plain words, Britain would never exercise a veto (though it has and recently)? Or is their claim that it doesn't have a veto because no one who would ever get to hold the office of Prime Minister would ever in practice oppose Turkey's membership because David Cameron has previously supported it as a long term goal?
Leaver logic gets steadily more elusive.
The veto is utterly worthless if you hand it to someone who will not use it. It's like Corbyn's unarmed nuclear submarines or police marksmen who aren't allowed to use their guns.
A bizarre comment even from someone who spends their time reinterpreting opinion polls.
I ask again, what would Corbyn (or similar) do with the veto if he was asked to make a decision on the accession of Turkey, Albania, Serbia, Macedonia and/or Montenegro?
''Leavers need to stop speaking from their hearts and reconnect with the real world.''
Or - 'Leavers need to stop thinking for themselves and starting doing as they are told'
No, paying attention to the most basic of facts will do.
There is a Leave case to be made, but not based on hysterical untruths.
"Hysterical untruths"
This from people that in event of Brexit threaten WW3 and nuclear Armageddon will start on Tuesday week but the real bad news is your pint of milk will be a penny dearer on Monday.
Direct quotes required from Remain campaigners for each of those claims. I think you'll struggle to find them.
Happy to accept your personal guarantee that any war in Europe would not escalate and end up nuclear of course. The last two away games ended up as World Wars of course.
Direct quotes mentioning World War 3 and nuclear Armageddon - none.
More Leaver truthiness: they invent a myth then parade it as fact.
Dancing on a pin Alistair as well as not addressing the "threats" made.
You also didn't provide me a guarantee.
As ever it will be legalistic spin.
You make the slur with a could, might, maybe rather than a will, is or shall. It;s deniable but the result is the same as most people don't walk around with a lawyer for legal interpretation.
Is there arguably an increased risk of war in Europe after Brexit? Given we've seen Russian aggression in Georgia and Ukraine in the last ten years, it is a fair question to ask. It isn't as though Russia's geopolitical ambitions in the area have been fully satiated.
If Leavers don't want to bother with this, that's their choice. They are far away countries of which they wish to know little. But others may reasonably feel differently.
Personally I dont think it's any higher than now. The EU didn't stop Yugoslavia, it didn't stop Georgia and it didn't stop the Ukraine and Crimea. It;s a paper tiger.
There's an argument the other way that a UK out of the EU box is another negative factor for Russia to consider and harder to manage than a German led EU dependent on Russian gas.
Stuff like this really doesn't help - Tory whips have told Brexit MPs that they shouldn't campaign, even in their own constituencies, if they want any hope of promotion.
My respect for Priti is growing - she's not taking any crap.
Brexiteers say they are prepared to block Cameron, whose effective Commons majority is just 17, from passing legislation after the referendum unless he promotes key Brexiteers. “People will go on strike,” one said.
In return, Tory whips have told MPs backing Brexit that they would be well advised not to actively campaign, even in their own constituencies, if they have any hope of promotion. “People are still being threatened and bullied,” one MP said.
all one big happy family.
Yup, in the event of a Remain victory, Dave should appoint me as Deputy Chairman of the Tory Party in charge of post referendum unity.
'Like giving Captain Bligh his own fleet'
That's certainly going to be an odd one. Will Dave stop victory celebrations or just let them rip?
If the EU debate bores you stiff, there is always the clip on I player of David Icke stating that the royal family are all shape shifting lizards and its all true if you look at the evidence.. Here is a report
''Leavers need to stop speaking from their hearts and reconnect with the real world.''
Or - 'Leavers need to stop thinking for themselves and starting doing as they are told'
No, paying attention to the most basic of facts will do.
There is a Leave case to be made, but not based on hysterical untruths.
LOL
can you explain why you thinks it's ok for Remain to campaign on hysterical untruths ?
Do point me in the direction of somewhere where I have suggested that.
Though there are few examples of an untruth from Remain as direct as the one being peddled by Penny Mordaunt this morning.
In this instance I'd say being complicit is just the same as being explicit.
I'm disappointed in you Field Marshal, I've given you a thread that is an opportunity to have a go at George Osborne and you've declined to do so.
You should know I take the Nat approach.
I never comment on the thread itself but clog up all the other ones.
In any case there will be a downturn. George has already given us manufacturers two recessions maybe he'll go for the hat trick.
I return to work tomorrow and can't say I'm looking forward to it, all my customers are currently spouting doom and gloom and it's got nothing to do with the EUref since they're all domestically based.
Alan , how did your trip to paradise go , assume you got the good weather most of country was experiencing.
Mr. Eagles, isn't that neglecting Osborne asking MPs yet to decide their position on the referendum whether they were for Leave, or whether they wanted a career?
As even one Leaver admitted at the time, it was a joke by Osborne.
But most Leavers are happy to promulgate an inaccurate myth to help them win.
An inaccurate myth?
As opposed to the accurate ones promulgated by Remain?
29 million Romanians and Bulgarians moving to the UK
Mr. Root, in just a week we've got the Monaco Grand Prix. Unusually for me, I'm rather looking forward to it. Seeing how the new Renault engine fares, whether Red Bull will be ahead of Ferrari, and whether Hamilton can narrow the gap (very easy to crash out there) will be interesting.
Stuff like this really doesn't help - Tory whips have told Brexit MPs that they shouldn't campaign, even in their own constituencies, if they want any hope of promotion.
My respect for Priti is growing - she's not taking any crap.
Brexiteers say they are prepared to block Cameron, whose effective Commons majority is just 17, from passing legislation after the referendum unless he promotes key Brexiteers. “People will go on strike,” one said.
In return, Tory whips have told MPs backing Brexit that they would be well advised not to actively campaign, even in their own constituencies, if they have any hope of promotion. “People are still being threatened and bullied,” one MP said.
all one big happy family.
Yup, in the event of a Remain victory, Dave should appoint me as Deputy Chairman of the Tory Party in charge of post referendum unity.
'Like giving Captain Bligh his own fleet'
That's certainly going to be an odd one. Will Dave stop victory celebrations or just let them rip?
The reconciliation reshuffle will be a good pointer. I suspect Osborne will be moved to the Foreign Office and that'll keep the troops happy.
I think this might be the most interesting Tory conference in years though, probably since 2007
''Leavers need to stop speaking from their hearts and reconnect with the real world.''
Or - 'Leavers need to stop thinking for themselves and starting doing as they are told'
No, paying attention to the most basic of facts will do.
There is a Leave case to be made, but not based on hysterical untruths.
LOL
can you explain why you thinks it's ok for Remain to campaign on hysterical untruths ?
Do point me in the direction of somewhere where I have suggested that.
Though there are few examples of an untruth from Remain as direct as the one being peddled by Penny Mordaunt this morning.
In this instance I'd say being complicit is just the same as being explicit.
I'm disappointed in you Field Marshal, I've given you a thread that is an opportunity to have a go at George Osborne and you've declined to do so.
You should know I take the Nat approach.
I never comment on the thread itself but clog up all the other ones.
In any case there will be a downturn. George has already given us manufacturers two recessions maybe he'll go for the hat trick.
I return to work tomorrow and can't say I'm looking forward to it, all my customers are currently spouting doom and gloom and it's got nothing to do with the EUref since they're all domestically based.
Alan , how did your trip to paradise go , assume you got the good weather most of country was experiencing.
Yes see further down malc.
Had a cracking time on Skye found a place which did really good sea food. Then we just dawdled around the locks on the Caledonian canal and took a few walks round Loch Ness.
Scenery was great, a bit of rain but all avoidable but when the sun came back out it made up for it all.
Mr. Eagles, isn't that neglecting Osborne asking MPs yet to decide their position on the referendum whether they were for Leave, or whether they wanted a career?
As even one Leaver admitted at the time, it was a joke by Osborne.
But most Leavers are happy to promulgate an inaccurate myth to help them win.
An inaccurate myth?
As opposed to the accurate ones promulgated by Remain?
29 million Romanians and Bulgarians moving to the UK
remember they said could not will
maybe that's were Remain learned it from.
62 million could emigrate from the UK. Remember I said "could" not "will".
F1: just checked the odds. Interesting to see both Red Bulls now shorter than Vettel for the victory.
Unsure of pit stops, may check my piece from last year to see if I mentioned it. If it's a one stop, that doesn't help the reds. But if it's two, they could try and eke out a single stop (the Ferrari is kinder on its tyres).
Mr. Eagles, isn't that neglecting Osborne asking MPs yet to decide their position on the referendum whether they were for Leave, or whether they wanted a career?
As even one Leaver admitted at the time, it was a joke by Osborne.
But most Leavers are happy to promulgate an inaccurate myth to help them win.
An inaccurate myth?
As opposed to the accurate ones promulgated by Remain?
29 million Romanians and Bulgarians moving to the UK
remember they said could not will
maybe that's were Remain learned it from.
62 million could emigrate from the UK. Remember I said "could" not "will".
Stuff like this really doesn't help - Tory whips have told Brexit MPs that they shouldn't campaign, even in their own constituencies, if they want any hope of promotion.
My respect for Priti is growing - she's not taking any crap.
Brexiteers say they are prepared to block Cameron, whose effective Commons majority is just 17, from passing legislation after the referendum unless he promotes key Brexiteers. “People will go on strike,” one said.
In return, Tory whips have told MPs backing Brexit that they would be well advised not to actively campaign, even in their own constituencies, if they have any hope of promotion. “People are still being threatened and bullied,” one MP said.
Seeing as Remainers have gone on about how ruthless Cameron and Osborne will be to win the referendum. Is it any surprise that some Leavers will choose to fight fire with fire.
Stuff like this really doesn't help - Tory whips have told Brexit MPs that they shouldn't campaign, even in their own constituencies, if they want any hope of promotion.
My respect for Priti is growing - she's not taking any crap.
Brexiteers say they are prepared to block Cameron, whose effective Commons majority is just 17, from passing legislation after the referendum unless he promotes key Brexiteers. “People will go on strike,” one said.
In return, Tory whips have told MPs backing Brexit that they would be well advised not to actively campaign, even in their own constituencies, if they have any hope of promotion. “People are still being threatened and bullied,” one MP said.
all one big happy family.
Yup, in the event of a Remain victory, Dave should appoint me as Deputy Chairman of the Tory Party in charge of post referendum unity.
'Like giving Captain Bligh his own fleet'
That's certainly going to be an odd one. Will Dave stop victory celebrations or just let them rip?
I am sure pictures of Dave singing 'Ode to Joy' with Peter Mandelson, Paddy Ashdown, Eddie Izzard Harriet Harman and Ken Clarke after a Remain win will go down brilliantly with his backbenchers
Stuff like this really doesn't help - Tory whips have told Brexit MPs that they shouldn't campaign, even in their own constituencies, if they want any hope of promotion.
My respect for Priti is growing - she's not taking any crap.
Brexiteers say they are prepared to block Cameron, whose effective Commons majority is just 17, from passing legislation after the referendum unless he promotes key Brexiteers. “People will go on strike,” one said.
In return, Tory whips have told MPs backing Brexit that they would be well advised not to actively campaign, even in their own constituencies, if they have any hope of promotion. “People are still being threatened and bullied,” one MP said.
all one big happy family.
Yup, in the event of a Remain victory, Dave should appoint me as Deputy Chairman of the Tory Party in charge of post referendum unity.
'Like giving Captain Bligh his own fleet'
That's certainly going to be an odd one. Will Dave stop victory celebrations or just let them rip?
The reconciliation reshuffle will be a good pointer. I suspect Osborne will be moved to the Foreign Office and that'll keep the troops happy.
I think this might be the most interesting Tory conference in years though, probably since 2007
I suppose they'll need to move him on.
He's screwed up most things and the chickens are coming home to roost - being Chancellor when the banks are closing once again wouldn't help his career..
If the EU debate bores you stiff, there is always the clip on I player of David Icke stating that the royal family are all shape shifting lizards and its all true if you look at the evidence.. Here is a report
There are some very funny lizard videos of Icke on YouTube - one intv in particular is so deadly serious that I wondered if I was wasting my time watching it. It starts out all quite sensible, makes a few valid points, then after about 5-10 mins of okaaayy, goes full bonkers with lizards.
I couldn't decide whether to die laughing or gape in horror at it. Son of God on Wogan level WTF.
I'm losing track, are Leavers claiming that Britain doesn't have a veto because, despite the plain words, Britain would never exercise a veto (though it has and recently)? Or is their claim that it doesn't have a veto because no one who would ever get to hold the office of Prime Minister would ever in practice oppose Turkey's membership because David Cameron has previously supported it as a long term goal?
Leaver logic gets steadily more elusive.
The veto is utterly worthless if you hand it to someone who will not use it. It's like Corbyn's unarmed nuclear submarines or police marksmen who aren't allowed to use their guns.
A bizarre comment even from someone who spends their time reinterpreting opinion polls.
I ask again, what would Corbyn (or similar) do with the veto if he was asked to make a decision on the accession of Turkey, Albania, Serbia, Macedonia and/or Montenegro?
Would he use it?
Like every other decision in the EU, it will be about horse-trading. Some of the deals may have nothing to do with the matter being discussed. Like Greece when presented with Cameron's "renegotiation" [ I couldn't find a better word ] wanted to know how much money they were going to get from the EU regarding refugees.
Mr. Eagles, isn't that neglecting Osborne asking MPs yet to decide their position on the referendum whether they were for Leave, or whether they wanted a career?
As even one Leaver admitted at the time, it was a joke by Osborne.
But most Leavers are happy to promulgate an inaccurate myth to help them win.
An inaccurate myth?
As opposed to the accurate ones promulgated by Remain?
29 million Romanians and Bulgarians moving to the UK
Can you deny that they have they right to move to the UK?
Considering the inadequate preparations made for the Poles that have come here (schools, maternity services, etc.), I think making promises that the Government expects the working classes to bear the brunt of is not good politics.
HELP please ! Windows 10 has managed to infect itself onto my pc without my asking it to do so. Now I get script errors all over the place, unchecked the usual stuff on Internet options but it makes no difference. Do I just have to accept that IE is crap and switch to chrome, or is there a fix>?
TA
It would be easier to download W10, both in the short and long run. Unless,of course, you run a Mac, then you really are f*cked.
I initially recommended to update from W8 but not from W7, now I'm thinking that even W8 is better than 10. It is that dire. Macs have never sold better as people are getting totally fed up with MS pulling tricks like they just did with Mr @SquareRoot.
Not only have I script errors but now crackle on my speakers.. (no solutions offered by a quick google work) I am seriously pissed of with Microsoft, they tell you nothing will change, then they feck your pc up and you have to pay someone loads to sort it out.. its disgraceful.
Did you see my note below about how to undo the W10 'upgrade'? Send me a PM if you want a hand.
Also when you've got W7 or 8 back working, download a program called "GWX Control Panel" which stops the auto W10 updates from happening. http://blog.ultimateoutsider.com/2015/08/using-gwx-stopper-to-permanently-remove.html This last point goes for anyone who's fed up of W10 notifications and wants to stick with the operating system they have already.
I used to get regular calls from people, often with Indian accents, offering to sort out Microsoft problems.
Don't EVER speak to or engage with any of these guys. They are scam artists who will use legitimate remote support tools to install a virus on your computer, encrypt all your files and charge you a ransom ($250 range) to get them back. This is a serious problem. NEVER speak to them*
* Unless of course you're an IT guy who likes baiting them and wasting their time, thinks it funny to have them try and talk you through clearing IE files on a Linux box,, a locked down VM or a Mac, rather than bribing their granny for her photos.
My mother in law tries to keep them on the line as long as possible, she feels she is doing a public service as time spent failinh to scam her is time they aren't targeting other people. Her record is over 20 minutes before they got pissed off and stopped the call.
''Leavers need to stop speaking from their hearts and reconnect with the real world.''
Or - 'Leavers need to stop thinking for themselves and starting doing as they are told'
No, paying attention to the most basic of facts will do.
There is a Leave case to be made, but not based on hysterical untruths.
"Hysterical untruths"
This from people that in event of Brexit threaten WW3 and nuclear Armageddon will start on Tuesday week but the real bad news is your pint of milk will be a penny dearer on Monday.
Direct quotes required from Remain campaigners for each of those claims. I think you'll struggle to find them.
Happy to accept your personal guarantee that any war in Europe would not escalate and end up nuclear of course. The last two away games ended up as World Wars of course.
Direct quotes mentioning World War 3 and nuclear Armageddon - none.
More Leaver truthiness: they invent a myth then parade it as fact.
Dancing on a pin Alistair as well as not addressing the "threats" made.
You also didn't provide me a guarantee.
As ever it will be legalistic spin.
You make the slur with a could, might, maybe rather than a will, is or shall. It;s deniable but the result is the same as most people don't walk around with a lawyer for legal interpretation.
Is there arguably an increased risk of war in Europe after Brexit? Given we've seen Russian aggression in Georgia and Ukraine in the last ten years, it is a fair question to ask. It isn't as though Russia's geopolitical ambitions in the area have been fully satiated.
If Leavers don't want to bother with this, that's their choice. They are far away countries of which they wish to know little. But others may reasonably feel differently.
The increased tension in the territories of the former USSR such as the Ukraine is due to the aggressive approach of the EU in its Drang nach Osten.
@Alistair. (Open nesting won't let me post on the posts before)
Alistair all we have had from remain is threats, more threats and then even more threats. Check ScottP's Twitter posts that keep us all fully up to date. Most of these claims are also beyond belief yet when you are challenged you want a word for word rebuttal to something that is inferred by remain? A lawyer you certainly are and dancing on a head of a pin you do.
You even maintain though a war is potentially possible in the very post above. You mention Russia which was my point entirely. No doubt if they get involved they will lob marshmallows and kittens at us and each night we can all then sit around a camp fire singing cum by ya. Which is it? you can't decry the presumption of us lesser mortals will infer from Dave's claims war can come and the added topping of Putin would be happy about the split which nicely rounds that threat off with a cherry topping and chocolate sprinkles. Regrettably It's always the impending doom and threats from the Remain side that are hysterical.
You and remain will of course win as I have always thought from the very start. Project fear would have worked on those that really do not follow events as here. That's the MO of remain, no real logical reasoning just strike terror into them. Meanwhile we, of our own desire will remain shackled to a dead corpse.
The day and the small amount of sun now beckons....
George Osborne has quite a track record of warning of a cocktail of threats. Do you get paid out if there is a recession which subsequently gets revised away like Osborne's infamous double-dip?
Mr. F, accepting the lack of choice, Cameron's still mishandled it.
It seems likely we'll have a recession at some point between now and 2020. If Leave win, this will be blamed on Leave. Indeed, any difficulty that arises will be blamed on Leave.
If Remain win, then Leave supporters will say " told you so", every time the EU does something we don't like. UKIP will keep chipping away at Conservative support. Some Conservatives who reluctantly voted Remain will feel like Labour supporters who reluctantly backed Tony Blair over Iraq.
Indeed and while many of those Labour supporters would not vote for an IDS or Howard led Tory Party some did switch to the LDs over Iraq and some Leave Tories could switch to UKIP. That was why Labour was reelected on just 35% in 2005, the latest Tory poll rating with Opinium? 35%
On topic. The ONS has GDP quarter on quarter figures going back to Q2 of 1955 (http://tinyurl.com/h936van). Since then we have had six technical recessions (two quarters of negative growth). On average there are 40 quarters between recessions with the smallest gap being 21 quarters (between Q3 of 1956 and Q4 of 1961) and the largest gap being 68 quarters (between Q3 of 1991 and Q3 of 2008).
Q1 of 2016 was the 27th consecutive quarter without a technical recession. Q3 of 2017 will be the 33rd. I think 9/4 for a recession by the end of 2017 is probably about right. The question for me is, was the 68 quarters before the last recession an indication that recessions are becoming rarer, or was it overdue and therefore the gap to the next one might be relatively short?
Stuff like this really doesn't help - Tory whips have told Brexit MPs that they shouldn't campaign, even in their own constituencies, if they want any hope of promotion.
My respect for Priti is growing - she's not taking any crap.
No, paying attention to the most basic of facts will do.
There is a Leave case to be made, but not based on hysterical untruths.
"Hysterical untruths"
This from people that in event of Brexit threaten WW3 and nuclear Armageddon will start on Tuesday week but the real bad news is your pint of milk will be a penny dearer on Monday.
Direct quotes required from Remain campaigners for each of those claims. I think you'll struggle to find them.
Happy to accept your personal guarantee that any war in Europe would not escalate and end up nuclear of course. The last two away games ended up as World Wars of course.
Direct quotes mentioning World War 3 and nuclear Armageddon - none.
More Leaver truthiness: they invent a myth then parade it as fact.
Dancing on a pin Alistair as well as not addressing the "threats" made.
You also didn't provide me a guarantee.
As ever it will be legalistic spin.
You make the slur with a could, might, maybe rather than a will, is or shall. It;s deniable but the result is the same as most people don't walk around with a lawyer for legal interpretation.
Is there arguably an increased risk of war in Europe after Brexit? Given we've seen Russian aggression in Georgia and Ukraine in the last ten years, it is a fair question to ask. It isn't as though Russia's geopolitical ambitions in the area have been fully satiated.
If Leavers don't want to bother with this, that's their choice. They are far away countries of which they wish to know little. But others may reasonably feel differently.
Personally I dont think it's any higher than now. The EU didn't stop Yugoslavia, it didn't stop Georgia and it didn't stop the Ukraine and Crimea. It;s a paper tiger.
There's an argument the other way that a UK out of the EU box is another negative factor for Russia to consider and harder to manage than a German led EU dependent on Russian gas.
So we can see that having the UK in the EU is good for the EU. But the decision is for the British people to vote on whether EU membership is good for the UK.
The In team have been highly anxious about the attitude of the Labour leadership to the referendum. They now say that they are very encouraged that the party has started to get its act together since the local elections. Labour figures with experience of organising campaigns, such as the deputy leader Tom Watson, have become fully engaged. One non-Labour strategist working for the In campaign recently spoke to me about the Labour effort in a tone of pleasant surprise: “They know how to organise a ground campaign.”
Luckily for them it is Tory voters who will decide Remain's fate, not Labour voters
Er..no. There will still be more Labour voters in the REMAIN camp than Tories unless REMAIN wins 60% of the votes.
Remain will lose if Tory voters back Leave but Labour voters comfortably back Remain. Remain will win if Tory voters back Remain or are split, so as I said it is Tory voters who will decide Remain's fate not Labour voters
George Osborne has quite a track record of warning of a cocktail of threats. Do you get paid out if there is a recession which subsequently gets revised away like Osborne's infamous double-dip?
My guess is the bet will be settled on the first ONS publication around three weeks after the quarter ends.
Great piece for Remainers to consider - what do they really want? Believe they can vote for a status quo that isn't on the ballot paper - or that they want More EU? Only the latter is on offer.
Miss Plato, a lot of people will vote Remain, then complain at more integration and the likes of the ECJ making Cameron's deal (so impressive he never mentions the mighty things he negotiated for us) worthless. Not to mention the EU army.
HELP please ! Windows 10 has managed to infect itself onto my pc without my asking it to do so. Now I get script errors all over the place, unchecked the usual stuff on Internet options but it makes no difference. Do I just have to accept that IE is crap and switch to chrome, or is there a fix>?
TA
Not only have I script errors but now crackle on my speakers.. (no solutions offered by a quick google work) I am seriously pissed of with Microsoft, they tell you nothing will change, then they feck your pc up and you have to pay someone loads to sort it out.. its disgraceful.
Did you see my note below about how to undo the W10 'upgrade'? Send me a PM if you want a hand.
Also when you've got W7 or 8 back working, download a program called "GWX Control Panel" which stops the auto W10 updates from happening. http://blog.ultimateoutsider.com/2015/08/using-gwx-stopper-to-permanently-remove.html This last point goes for anyone who's fed up of W10 notifications and wants to stick with the operating system they have already.
I used to get regular calls from people, often with Indian accents, offering to sort out Microsoft problems.
Don't EVER speak to or engage with any of these guys. They are scam artists who will use legitimate remote support tools to install a virus on your computer, encrypt all your files and charge you a ransom ($250 range) to get them back. This is a serious problem. NEVER speak to them*
* Unless of course you're an IT guy who likes baiting them and wasting their time, thinks it funny to have them try and talk you through clearing IE files on a Linux box,, a locked down VM or a Mac, rather than bribing their granny for her photos.
My mother in law tries to keep them on the line as long as possible, she feels she is doing a public service as time spent failinh to scam her is time they aren't targeting other people. Her record is over 20 minutes before they got pissed off and stopped the call.
That's a good effort. On Slashdot (tech forum) there's guys who have kept them talking for an hour or more by being as slow as possible. A favourite trick to is to set up a virtual machine with 5% of the processor only. It runs really REALLY slowly but let's the guys on the other end think they're in with a chance of eventually succeeding in 'fixing' the really slow computer. Fun and games for those who know what they're doing!
But seriously, everyone should tell parents, grandparents and others that it's a scam, Microsoft or their representatives will never call you.
I'm losing track, are Leavers claiming that Britain doesn't have a veto because, despite the plain words, Britain would never exercise a veto (though it has and recently)? Or is their claim that it doesn't have a veto because no one who would ever get to hold the office of Prime Minister would ever in practice oppose Turkey's membership because David Cameron has previously supported it as a long term goal?
Leaver logic gets steadily more elusive.
The veto is utterly worthless if you hand it to someone who will not use it. It's like Corbyn's unarmed nuclear submarines or police marksmen who aren't allowed to use their guns.
A bizarre comment even from someone who spends their time reinterpreting opinion polls.
I ask again, what would Corbyn (or similar) do with the veto if he was asked to make a decision on the accession of Turkey, Albania, Serbia, Macedonia and/or Montenegro?
Would he use it?
So this is to save us from a whim of Jeremy Corbyn? If you think it's a danger don't vote for him. That's the way it works in a democracy.
Great piece for Remainers to consider - what do they really want? Believe they can vote for a status quo that isn't on the ballot paper - or that they want More EU? Only the latter is on offer.
There are 3 potential outcomes from the referendum.
1. Leave win and we leave the EU.
2. Remain win narrowly with 50 to 55%, UKIP rise in the polls and push for another vote and the electorate have clearly backed the status quo only and with Cameron's supposed reforms
3. Remain win by close to 60%+ and the EU may start pressing for further UK integration, maybe even the Euro if polls start to shift there too and will see the British electorate as having given a wholehearted endorsement of the EU project
I'm losing track, are Leavers claiming that Britain doesn't have a veto because, despite the plain words, Britain would never exercise a veto (though it has and recently)? Or is their claim that it doesn't have a veto because no one who would ever get to hold the office of Prime Minister would ever in practice oppose Turkey's membership because David Cameron has previously supported it as a long term goal?
Leaver logic gets steadily more elusive.
The veto is utterly worthless if you hand it to someone who will not use it. It's like Corbyn's unarmed nuclear submarines or police marksmen who aren't allowed to use their guns.
A bizarre comment even from someone who spends their time reinterpreting opinion polls.
I ask again, what would Corbyn (or similar) do with the veto if he was asked to make a decision on the accession of Turkey, Albania, Serbia, Macedonia and/or Montenegro?
Would he use it?
So this is to save us from a whim of Jeremy Corbyn? If you think it's a danger don't vote for him. That's the way it works in a democracy.
.
The Sovereignty of the Westminster Parliament extends to use or not of the Veto...
Stuff like this really doesn't help - Tory whips have told Brexit MPs that they shouldn't campaign, even in their own constituencies, if they want any hope of promotion.
My respect for Priti is growing - she's not taking any crap.
Brexiteers say they are prepared to block Cameron, whose effective Commons majority is just 17, from passing legislation after the referendum unless he promotes key Brexiteers. “People will go on strike,” one said.
In return, Tory whips have told MPs backing Brexit that they would be well advised not to actively campaign, even in their own constituencies, if they have any hope of promotion. “People are still being threatened and bullied,” one MP said.
all one big happy family.
Yup, in the event of a Remain victory, Dave should appoint me as Deputy Chairman of the Tory Party in charge of post referendum unity.
'Like giving Captain Bligh his own fleet'
That's certainly going to be an odd one. Will Dave stop victory celebrations or just let them rip?
The reconciliation reshuffle will be a good pointer. I suspect Osborne will be moved to the Foreign Office and that'll keep the troops happy.
I think this might be the most interesting Tory conference in years though, probably since 2007
If Cameron is shrewd he would job swap Osborne and Hammond
Great piece for Remainers to consider - what do they really want? Believe they can vote for a status quo that isn't on the ballot paper - or that they want More EU? Only the latter is on offer.
Quite so.
However the reverse is true. LEAVE haven't managed to offer a coherent vision of what is on the ballot paper either. Is it EFTA, EFTA lite, EFTA plus, Canada, Albania, the old white Commonwealth or the Grand Duchy of Fenwick?
This has been a fundamental weakness of the LEAVE campaign. If they don't know how the hell do they expect the voters to ?
Stuff like this really doesn't help - Tory whips have told Brexit MPs that they shouldn't campaign, even in their own constituencies, if they want any hope of promotion.
My respect for Priti is growing - she's not taking any crap.
Great piece for Remainers to consider - what do they really want? Believe they can vote for a status quo that isn't on the ballot paper - or that they want More EU? Only the latter is on offer.
Cyclefree wrote an article on here asking for REMAIN to set out what would the EU look like. "Let’s invite the EU Commissioners to tell us what they think the EU should be, how it should develop in their areas of competence. "
Instead we just have denials that the 5 Presidents report "does not apply" and we "have a veto" and "the tooth fairy lives"*.
I'm losing track, are Leavers claiming that Britain doesn't have a veto because, despite the plain words, Britain would never exercise a veto (though it has and recently)? Or is their claim that it doesn't have a veto because no one who would ever get to hold the office of Prime Minister would ever in practice oppose Turkey's membership because David Cameron has previously supported it as a long term goal?
Leaver logic gets steadily more elusive.
The veto is utterly worthless if you hand it to someone who will not use it. It's like Corbyn's unarmed nuclear submarines or police marksmen who aren't allowed to use their guns.
A bizarre comment even from someone who spends their time reinterpreting opinion polls.
I ask again, what would Corbyn (or similar) do with the veto if he was asked to make a decision on the accession of Turkey, Albania, Serbia, Macedonia and/or Montenegro?
Would he use it?
So this is to save us from a whim of Jeremy Corbyn? If you think it's a danger don't vote for him. That's the way it works in a democracy.
.
That implies that you think he (or similar) would wave them in, in which case I would agree with you.
Therefore, the veto doesn't amount to a hill of beans if it's in the hands of someone who would not use it.
I don't expect that to change your mind, nor anyone else who is rampantly europhile and sees no issue with the present migration pattern.
It is a bit silly though for anyone to pretend that the veto is some form of permanent protection, when the truth is that it depends on who is entrusted with it.
Of course, a UK administration could open the doors anyway, but we get to change our minds every five years. In the EU, everything appears irreversible.
I'm losing track, are Leavers claiming that Britain doesn't have a veto because, despite the plain words, Britain would never exercise a veto (though it has and recently)? Or is their claim that it doesn't have a veto because no one who would ever get to hold the office of Prime Minister would ever in practice oppose Turkey's membership because David Cameron has previously supported it as a long term goal?
Leaver logic gets steadily more elusive.
So presumably the logic of each and every remainer must be the same as that of John McDonnell and Michael Heseltine at the same time because there must be only one remain groupthink? Or perhaps you only prescribe such a ludicrous standard for leavers.
Great piece for Remainers to consider - what do they really want? Believe they can vote for a status quo that isn't on the ballot paper - or that they want More EU? Only the latter is on offer.
Quite so.
However the reverse is true. LEAVE haven't managed to offer a coherent vision of what is on the ballot paper either. Is it EFTA, EFTA lite, EFTA plus, Canada, Albania, the old white Commonwealth or the Grand Duchy of Fenwick?
This has been a fundamental weakness of the LEAVE campaign. If they don't know how the hell do they expect the voters to ?
In a way it's an unfair criticism of LEAVE - there isn't a Leave Party (sorry Nige), they aren't in opposition, this isn't a GE, and they aren't going to be in a position to implement anything.
But people want to know what they're voting for. So to that extent it's not an unfair criticism, just a built-in disadvantage.
I'm losing track, are Leavers claiming that Britain doesn't have a veto because, despite the plain words, Britain would never exercise a veto (though it has and recently)? Or is their claim that it doesn't have a veto because no one who would ever get to hold the office of Prime Minister would ever in practice oppose Turkey's membership because David Cameron has previously supported it as a long term goal?
Leaver logic gets steadily more elusive.
So presumably the logic of each and every remainer must be the same as that of John McDonnell and Michael Heseltine at the same time because there must be only one remain groupthink? Or perhaps you only prescribe such a ludicrous standard for leavers.
I ask simply for an acknowledgement from Leavers that Penny Mordaunt lied. The absurd contortions offered to suggest that she spoke to some form of deeper truth merely indicate the extreme silliness of so many Leavers.
On topic. The ONS has GDP quarter on quarter figures going back to Q2 of 1955 (http://tinyurl.com/h936van). Since then we have had six technical recessions (two quarters of negative growth). On average there are 40 quarters between recessions with the smallest gap being 21 quarters (between Q3 of 1956 and Q4 of 1961) and the largest gap being 68 quarters (between Q3 of 1991 and Q3 of 2008).
Q1 of 2016 was the 27th consecutive quarter without a technical recession. Q3 of 2017 will be the 33rd. I think 9/4 for a recession by the end of 2017 is probably about right. The question for me is, was the 68 quarters before the last recession an indication that recessions are becoming rarer, or was it overdue and therefore the gap to the next one might be relatively short?
Economic expansions do not die of old age. They die either because inflation appears, and central banks need to raise interest rates, because the economy becomes unbalanced (typically due to excessive debt build-up or other misallocation of capital), or because of some external shock.
The deeper the recession preceding the expansion, the more economic 'spare capacity' there is, and the longer the ability of the economy to grow without hitting capacity constraints. Similarly, deep recessions tend to weed out lots of capital misallocation, and often result in meaningful private sector deleveraging.
For this reason, we can reasonably expect this economic expansion to last some time. (With one proviso: the UK continues to run a very large current account deficit. We are dependent - as Spain and Greece were before the Eurozone crisis - on the importation of large amounts of foreign capital to pay our bills.)
Mr. Money, when I was at university there were some interesting theories about racism, one of which revolved around a computer-style approach. It suggested people have a limited processing capacity, and that while we have detailed 'folders' for individuals to whom we're close, acquaintances get a few bulletpoints, and whole groups just get categorised as stereotypes that are all the same.
I do wonder if a similar thing happens in politics. Not only with this referendum (and the Scottish one) but when people look at the left and see people who are brainless, or the right and see people who are heartless.
The odd language by some (Alan Johnson's 'extremists' and Cameron suggesting the leader of ISIS would smile if Leave won) does seem indicative of considering the other side to be fearful oiks who are either vile bigots or who don't understand how the world works.
I'm losing track, are Leavers claiming that Britain doesn't have a veto because, despite the plain words, Britain would never exercise a veto (though it has and recently)? Or is their claim that it doesn't have a veto because no one who would ever get to hold the office of Prime Minister would ever in practice oppose Turkey's membership because David Cameron has previously supported it as a long term goal?
Leaver logic gets steadily more elusive.
The veto is utterly worthless if you hand it to someone who will not use it. It's like Corbyn's unarmed nuclear submarines or police marksmen who aren't allowed to use their guns.
A bizarre comment even from someone who spends their time reinterpreting opinion polls.
I ask again, what would Corbyn (or similar) do with the veto if he was asked to make a decision on the accession of Turkey, Albania, Serbia, Macedonia and/or Montenegro?
Would he use it?
So this is to save us from a whim of Jeremy Corbyn? If you think it's a danger don't vote for him. That's the way it works in a democracy.
.
The Sovereignty of the Westminster Parliament extends to use or not of the Veto...
Using the word 'veto' is slightly pejorative. It has to be unanimous which sounds better and whichever way the govenment of the day votes there are several other countries that will vote against.
Great piece for Remainers to consider - what do they really want? Believe they can vote for a status quo that isn't on the ballot paper - or that they want More EU? Only the latter is on offer.
Cyclefree wrote an article on here asking for REMAIN to set out what would the EU look like. "Let’s invite the EU Commissioners to tell us what they think the EU should be, how it should develop in their areas of competence. "
Instead we just have denials that the 5 Presidents report "does not apply" and we "have a veto" and "the tooth fairy lives"*.
*At least 1 of the 3 is untrue.
I think we will quickly see how in some cases how the veto is worthless.
I'm losing track, are Leavers claiming that Britain doesn't have a veto because, despite the plain words, Britain would never exercise a veto (though it has and recently)? Or is their claim that it doesn't have a veto because no one who would ever get to hold the office of Prime Minister would ever in practice oppose Turkey's membership because David Cameron has previously supported it as a long term goal?
Leaver logic gets steadily more elusive.
So presumably the logic of each and every remainer must be the same as that of John McDonnell and Michael Heseltine at the same time because there must be only one remain groupthink? Or perhaps you only prescribe such a ludicrous standard for leavers.
I ask simply for an acknowledgement from Leavers that Penny Mordaunt lied. The absurd contortions offered to suggest that she spoke to some form of deeper truth merely indicate the extreme silliness of so many Leavers.
I don't have any problem saying that Mordaunt lied. Rather amusingly the Sunday Politics played a clip of Cameron championing Turkey joining the EU. I think this is an issue for Tories. They may think that the danger is that Labour get back into power and sell out to the EU. But the reality is that Cameron and Co are just as bad.
Great piece for Remainers to consider - what do they really want? Believe they can vote for a status quo that isn't on the ballot paper - or that they want More EU? Only the latter is on offer.
Cyclefree wrote an article on here asking for REMAIN to set out what would the EU look like. "Let’s invite the EU Commissioners to tell us what they think the EU should be, how it should develop in their areas of competence. "
Instead we just have denials that the 5 Presidents report "does not apply" and we "have a veto" and "the tooth fairy lives"*.
*At least 1 of the 3 is untrue.
I think we will quickly see how in some cases how the veto is worthless.
That is not what REMAINers on here seem to believe.
On topic. The ONS has GDP quarter on quarter figures going back to Q2 of 1955 (http://tinyurl.com/h936van). Since then we have had six technical recessions (two quarters of negative growth). On average there are 40 quarters between recessions with the smallest gap being 21 quarters (between Q3 of 1956 and Q4 of 1961) and the largest gap being 68 quarters (between Q3 of 1991 and Q3 of 2008).
Q1 of 2016 was the 27th consecutive quarter without a technical recession. Q3 of 2017 will be the 33rd. I think 9/4 for a recession by the end of 2017 is probably about right. The question for me is, was the 68 quarters before the last recession an indication that recessions are becoming rarer, or was it overdue and therefore the gap to the next one might be relatively short?
Economic expansions do not die of old age. They die either because inflation appears, and central banks need to raise interest rates, because the economy becomes unbalanced (typically due to excessive debt build-up or other misallocation of capital), or because of some external shock.
The deeper the recession preceding the expansion, the more economic 'spare capacity' there is, and the longer the ability of the economy to grow without hitting capacity constraints. Similarly, deep recessions tend to weed out lots of capital misallocation, and often result in meaningful private sector deleveraging.
For this reason, we can reasonably expect this economic expansion to last some time. (With one proviso: the UK continues to run a very large current account deficit. We are dependent - as Spain and Greece were before the Eurozone crisis - on the importation of large amounts of foreign capital to pay our bills.)
Mr. Money, when I was at university there were some interesting theories about racism, one of which revolved around a computer-style approach. It suggested people have a limited processing capacity, and that while we have detailed 'folders' for individuals to whom we're close, acquaintances get a few bulletpoints, and whole groups just get categorised as stereotypes that are all the same.
I do wonder if a similar thing happens in politics. Not only with this referendum (and the Scottish one) but when people look at the left and see people who are brainless, or the right and see people who are heartless.
The odd language by some (Alan Johnson's 'extremists' and Cameron suggesting the leader of ISIS would smile if Leave won) does seem indicative of considering the other side to be fearful oiks who are either vile bigots or who don't understand how the world works.
The increased tension in the territories of the former USSR such as the Ukraine is due to the aggressive approach of the EU in its Drang nach Osten.
It's not only that. Those Eastern European countries that "turned West" and joined the EU have become (relatively) wealthy. (I would point to the Baltic states and most of Eastern Europe.) Those that turned East, sticking inside Russia's orbit in return for cheap natural gas, have not fared so well.
If you were a well educated Ukrainian, would you rather your country was more like Estonia or more like Russia?
On topic. The ONS has GDP quarter on quarter figures going back to Q2 of 1955 (http://tinyurl.com/h936van). Since then we have had six technical recessions (two quarters of negative growth). On average there are 40 quarters between recessions with the smallest gap being 21 quarters (between Q3 of 1956 and Q4 of 1961) and the largest gap being 68 quarters (between Q3 of 1991 and Q3 of 2008).
Q1 of 2016 was the 27th consecutive quarter without a technical recession. Q3 of 2017 will be the 33rd. I think 9/4 for a recession by the end of 2017 is probably about right. The question for me is, was the 68 quarters before the last recession an indication that recessions are becoming rarer, or was it overdue and therefore the gap to the next one might be relatively short?
Economic expansions do not die of old age. They die either because inflation appears, and central banks need to raise interest rates, because the economy becomes unbalanced (typically due to excessive debt build-up or other misallocation of capital), or because of some external shock.
The deeper the recession preceding the expansion, the more economic 'spare capacity' there is, and the longer the ability of the economy to grow without hitting capacity constraints. Similarly, deep recessions tend to weed out lots of capital misallocation, and often result in meaningful private sector deleveraging.
For this reason, we can reasonably expect this economic expansion to last some time. (With one proviso: the UK continues to run a very large current account deficit. We are dependent - as Spain and Greece were before the Eurozone crisis - on the importation of large amounts of foreign capital to pay our bills.)
So the 1/3 on no recession is free money?
We'd have to have two quarters of negative growth by then, so I'd take the bet personally.
Mr. Money, when I was at university there were some interesting theories about racism, one of which revolved around a computer-style approach. It suggested people have a limited processing capacity, and that while we have detailed 'folders' for individuals to whom we're close, acquaintances get a few bulletpoints, and whole groups just get categorised as stereotypes that are all the same.
I do wonder if a similar thing happens in politics. Not only with this referendum (and the Scottish one) but when people look at the left and see people who are brainless, or the right and see people who are heartless.
The odd language by some (Alan Johnson's 'extremists' and Cameron suggesting the leader of ISIS would smile if Leave won) does seem indicative of considering the other side to be fearful oiks who are either vile bigots or who don't understand how the world works.
It also goes some way to explain the hostility of many Leavers to the diversity of our European cousins.
I'm losing track, are Leavers claiming that Britain doesn't have a veto because, despite the plain words, Britain would never exercise a veto (though it has and recently)? Or is their claim that it doesn't have a veto because no one who would ever get to hold the office of Prime Minister would ever in practice oppose Turkey's membership because David Cameron has previously supported it as a long term goal?
Leaver logic gets steadily more elusive.
So presumably the logic of each and every remainer must be the same as that of John McDonnell and Michael Heseltine at the same time because there must be only one remain groupthink? Or perhaps you only prescribe such a ludicrous standard for leavers.
I ask simply for an acknowledgement from Leavers that Penny Mordaunt lied. The absurd contortions offered to suggest that she spoke to some form of deeper truth merely indicate the extreme silliness of so many Leavers.
Suddenly to REMAIN a junior minister's words matter more than the head of the UK govt.....
Q: Will the British people have a veto on Turkey joining? A: Highly unlikely so that is a No (the french people will have).
Q: Is it Cameron's policy and the Govt's stated policy, that Turkey should join at earliest possible time and that by implication the Govt would not exercise a veto? A: Yes.
Q: Did Cameron sign up to a statement 9 weeks ago that the accession arrangements for Turkey becoming an EU member should be accelerated? A: Yes.
Q: Should we believe what Cameron and the Government tells us? A: REMAIN seem to say yes if it suits them and no if it does not suit them.....
Mr Sandpit & Alistair, 20 minutes for an amateur keeping these scammers talking is very creditable.I can’t be bothered any longer so I’ve set my phone to caller display and never answer “International” calls. Overseas relatives know to use Facetime or other secure service.
To my absolute horror one of my cousins spent some time explaining to me how she couldn’t use her computer anymore because “the man from Microsoft must have got it wrong"
On topic. The ONS has GDP quarter on quarter figures going back to Q2 of 1955 (http://tinyurl.com/h936van). Since then we have had six technical recessions (two quarters of negative growth). On average there are 40 quarters between recessions with the smallest gap being 21 quarters (between Q3 of 1956 and Q4 of 1961) and the largest gap being 68 quarters (between Q3 of 1991 and Q3 of 2008).
Q1 of 2016 was the 27th consecutive quarter without a technical recession. Q3 of 2017 will be the 33rd. I think 9/4 for a recession by the end of 2017 is probably about right. The question for me is, was the 68 quarters before the last recession an indication that recessions are becoming rarer, or was it overdue and therefore the gap to the next one might be relatively short?
Economic expansions do not die of old age. They die either because inflation appears, and central banks need to raise interest rates, because the economy becomes unbalanced (typically due to excessive debt build-up or other misallocation of capital), or because of some external shock.
The deeper the recession preceding the expansion, the more economic 'spare capacity' there is, and the longer the ability of the economy to grow without hitting capacity constraints. Similarly, deep recessions tend to weed out lots of capital misallocation, and often result in meaningful private sector deleveraging.
For this reason, we can reasonably expect this economic expansion to last some time. (With one proviso: the UK continues to run a very large current account deficit. We are dependent - as Spain and Greece were before the Eurozone crisis - on the importation of large amounts of foreign capital to pay our bills.)
So the 1/3 on no recession is free money?
We'd have to have two quarters of negative growth by then, so I'd take the bet personally.
I think you're probably right and the technical point matters a lot. What makes me reluctant to bet on a recession occurring is what lengths would the government go to to prevent it from being a technical recession? I wouldn't put it past them to get Carney to print a lot of money and to up capital spending and say "f*** the deficit".
Now the Brexit stalwart Boris Johnson, my fellow historian, claims that it was all in vain. “The European Union,” he says, “is an attempt to do what Hitler wanted by different methods.” Worse still, the EU is a German plot, whose currency, the euro, was “intended by the Germans” to “destroy” Italian manufacturing and generally grind the faces of its unfortunate members. Johnson has also invoked the spirit of Churchill in support of his arguments. He has since doubled down on his remarks and has received support from other members of the Brexit camp, such as Iain Duncan Smith, though not apparently from more informed figures such as Michael Gove. Unfortunately, Johnson’s claims are as historically wrong as it is possible to be, comparable in their crassness only to his predecessor as London mayor Ken Livingstone’s suggestion that Hitler supported Zionism.
I don't know, it was pretty aggressive how the EU offered a voluntary trade and aid deal.
Some Leavers on here seem to believe that Britain alone has the right of self determination. They are content for Ukraine to be bullied by Putin, or Scotland by Westminster...
Great piece for Remainers to consider - what do they really want? Believe they can vote for a status quo that isn't on the ballot paper - or that they want More EU? Only the latter is on offer.
There are 3 potential outcomes from the referendum.
1. Leave win and we leave the EU.
2. Remain win narrowly with 50 to 55%, UKIP rise in the polls and push for another vote and the electorate have clearly backed the status quo only and with Cameron's supposed reforms
3. Remain win by close to 60%+ and the EU may start pressing for further UK integration, maybe even the Euro if polls start to shift there too and will see the British electorate as having given a wholehearted endorsement of the EU project
I don't see either (a) how the EU could even attempt to get us to join the Eurozone, or (b) why they would want to.
Even if it were in their power to force us (which it is not), given the problems they have holding it together currenrtly, then the last thing they would want is a country in the Eurozone who didn't want to be there.
CBI Head Caroline, was distinctly unimpressive on Sunday Politics show.
Talking of unimpressive. Labourite Pienaar had Eddie Izzard and Andy Pandy on this morning, both were utter crap-ola. Eddie should stick to the funnies, but we are going to have the pleasure of him in politics full time in 4 years time (apparently) and Flippty Floppty was repeating his nonsense about Northern kids bullying people who have aspiration and totally unconvincing about his reasons for wanting to become Mayor of Manchester.
Far Right lol When is the BBC going to start labeling Labour " Far Left "?
The Austrians have been given two bloody awful choices: one a right wing nutjob, and the other a left wing nutjob.
Could happen in France!
Theoretically possible, but all the polls from France have the PS a long way behind Les Republicans in third place. If Juppe is the candidate for LR, then it's highly likely he'll be leading by a fair margin even in the first round.
Now the Brexit stalwart Boris Johnson, my fellow historian, claims that it was all in vain. “The European Union,” he says, “is an attempt to do what Hitler wanted by different methods.” Worse still, the EU is a German plot, whose currency, the euro, was “intended by the Germans” to “destroy” Italian manufacturing and generally grind the faces of its unfortunate members. Johnson has also invoked the spirit of Churchill in support of his arguments. He has since doubled down on his remarks and has received support from other members of the Brexit camp, such as Iain Duncan Smith, though not apparently from more informed figures such as Michael Gove. Unfortunately, Johnson’s claims are as historically wrong as it is possible to be, comparable in their crassness only to his predecessor as London mayor Ken Livingstone’s suggestion that Hitler supported Zionism.
Listening to today's controversy re Turkey's succession to the EU and up to 12 million Turks arriving in the UK, leave have again made the mistake of not understanding their brief and Penny Mordaunt's denial of the UK's veto is beyond belief, particularly as is was on Marr, and is now the theme of the day, with everyone from the PM down affirming that not only does the UK have a veto but so does everyone else including Greece. Also video out today of Boris extolling the virtue of Turkey joining the EU, even though leave are making such a big issue of it. I believe the campaign has already been won by remain due to leave's utter incompetence and inability to have a believable alternative outside the EU. Less than 14 days to the postal votes going in and I cannot see anything on the horizon that is a game changer for leave.
Don't the 5 Presidents speak with authority on the EU?
Ask a Brexiteer.
They are the ones who pass judgement on authority
Well, judging by your re-tweets, you don't seem use judgement at all.
If someone is basing their argument on their authority, then it is perfectly valid to examine the source of that authority. But you seem to think that questioning that authority at all is wrong.
Islamic State has moved its chemical weapons operation to densely populated residential areas and is testing homemade chlorine and mustard gas on its prisoners, residents of the Iraqi city of Mosul have claimed.
It has a special unit for chemical weapons research made up of Iraqi scientists who worked on weapons programmes under Saddam Hussein, as well as foreign experts.
The head of the unit, Sleiman Daoud al-Afari, was captured during a raid by US special forces outside Mosul in March and is now sharing intelligence on Isil’s chemical operation.
An investigation by Syrian and Iraqi citizen journalists who report under the name Sound and Picture, reveal he has now been replaced by Abu Shaima, an Iraqi doctor who worked at the University of Baghdad during Saddam’s reign.
I'm losing track, are Leavers claiming that Britain doesn't have a veto because, despite the plain words, Britain would never exercise a veto (though it has and recently)? Or is their claim that it doesn't have a veto because no one who would ever get to hold the office of Prime Minister would ever in practice oppose Turkey's membership because David Cameron has previously supported it as a long term goal?
Leaver logic gets steadily more elusive.
So presumably the logic of each and every remainer must be the same as that of John McDonnell and Michael Heseltine at the same time because there must be only one remain groupthink? Or perhaps you only prescribe such a ludicrous standard for leavers.
I ask simply for an acknowledgement from Leavers that Penny Mordaunt lied. The absurd contortions offered to suggest that she spoke to some form of deeper truth merely indicate the extreme silliness of so many Leavers.
Suddenly to REMAIN a junior minister's words matter more than the head of the UK govt.....
Q: Will the British people have a veto on Turkey joining? A: Highly unlikely so that is a No (the french people will have).
Q: Is it Cameron's policy and the Govt's stated policy, that Turkey should join at earliest possible time and that by implication the Govt would not exercise a veto? A: Yes.
Q: Did Cameron sign up to a statement 9 weeks ago that the accession arrangements for Turkey becoming an EU member should be accelerated? A: Yes.
Q: Should we believe what Cameron and the Government tells us? A: REMAIN seem to say yes if it suits them and no if it does not suit them.....
I'm a Leaver (as is Richard Tyndall), and we will both say that there is no realistic possibility than Turkey will join the EU given: (a) the French requirement to have a referendum, (b) Greece and Cyprus, and (c) that Turkey will not meet any of the accession criteria.
Flippty Floppty was repeating his nonsense about Northern kids bullying people who have aspiration and totally unconvincing about his reasons for wanting to become Mayor of Manchester.
@PolhomeEditor: Andy Burnham said this morning that his heart "has always been" in Liverpool AND Manchester. Beyond parody.
Listening to today's controversy re Turkey's succession to the EU and up to 12 million Turks arriving in the UK, leave have again made the mistake of not understanding their brief and Penny Mordaunt's denial of the UK's veto is beyond belief, particularly as is was on Marr, and is now the theme of the day, with everyone from the PM down affirming that not only does the UK have a veto but so does everyone else including Greece. Also video out today of Boris extolling the virtue of Turkey joining the EU, even though leave are making such a big issue of it. I believe the campaign has already been won by remain due to leave's utter incompetence and inability to have a believable alternative outside the EU. Less than 14 days to the postal votes going in and I cannot see anything on the horizon that is a game changer for leave.
I do hope Remain's HQ isn't as complacent as this. As Chesterton wrote:
"For we are the people of England, that never have spoken yet."
Flippty Floppty was repeating his nonsense about Northern kids bullying people who have aspiration and totally unconvincing about his reasons for wanting to become Mayor of Manchester.
@PolhomeEditor: Andy Burnham said this morning that his heart "has always been" in Liverpool AND Manchester. Beyond parody.
Probably true. To be fair, his face is always pointing at least two ways.
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As opposed to the accurate ones promulgated by Remain?
Mr. K, I do think shyness will be more a factor for Leave than Remain. That said, I still think Remain will win handily.
Would he use it?
There's an argument the other way that a UK out of the EU box is another negative factor for Russia to consider and harder to manage than a German led EU dependent on Russian gas.
Here is a report
https://www.rt.com/uk/343790-david-icke-bbc-conspiracies/
maybe that's were Remain learned it from.
I think this might be the most interesting Tory conference in years though, probably since 2007
Had a cracking time on Skye found a place which did really good sea food. Then we just dawdled around the locks on the Caledonian canal and took a few walks round Loch Ness.
Scenery was great, a bit of rain but all avoidable but when the sun came back out it made up for it all.
Unsure of pit stops, may check my piece from last year to see if I mentioned it. If it's a one stop, that doesn't help the reds. But if it's two, they could try and eke out a single stop (the Ferrari is kinder on its tyres).
Is it any surprise that some Leavers will choose to fight fire with fire.
He's screwed up most things and the chickens are coming home to roost - being Chancellor when the banks are closing once again wouldn't help his career..
I couldn't decide whether to die laughing or gape in horror at it. Son of God on Wogan level WTF.
Considering the inadequate preparations made for the Poles that have come here (schools, maternity services, etc.), I think making promises that the Government expects the working classes to bear the brunt of is not good politics.
Alistair all we have had from remain is threats, more threats and then even more threats. Check ScottP's Twitter posts that keep us all fully up to date. Most of these claims are also beyond belief yet when you are challenged you want a word for word rebuttal to something that is inferred by remain?
A lawyer you certainly are and dancing on a head of a pin you do.
You even maintain though a war is potentially possible in the very post above. You mention Russia which was my point entirely. No doubt if they get involved they will lob marshmallows and kittens at us and each night we can all then sit around a camp fire singing cum by ya. Which is it? you can't decry the presumption of us lesser mortals will infer from Dave's claims war can come and the added topping of Putin would be happy about the split which nicely rounds that threat off with a cherry topping and chocolate sprinkles. Regrettably It's always the impending doom and threats from the Remain side that are hysterical.
You and remain will of course win as I have always thought from the very start. Project fear would have worked on those that really do not follow events as here. That's the MO of remain, no real logical reasoning just strike terror into them. Meanwhile we, of our own desire will remain shackled to a dead corpse.
The day and the small amount of sun now beckons....
Q1 of 2016 was the 27th consecutive quarter without a technical recession. Q3 of 2017 will be the 33rd. I think 9/4 for a recession by the end of 2017 is probably about right. The question for me is, was the 68 quarters before the last recession an indication that recessions are becoming rarer, or was it overdue and therefore the gap to the next one might be relatively short?
Chortle ....
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/focus/stop-traipsing-down-the-up-escalator-leaving-would-let-britain-grow-7zxg9tvl2
But seriously, everyone should tell parents, grandparents and others that it's a scam, Microsoft or their representatives will never call you.
.
1. Leave win and we leave the EU.
2. Remain win narrowly with 50 to 55%, UKIP rise in the polls and push for another vote and the electorate have clearly backed the status quo only and with Cameron's supposed reforms
3. Remain win by close to 60%+ and the EU may start pressing for further UK integration, maybe even the Euro if polls start to shift there too and will see the British electorate as having given a wholehearted endorsement of the EU project
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-36351359
Postal votes only counted tomorrow, though.
However the reverse is true. LEAVE haven't managed to offer a coherent vision of what is on the ballot paper either. Is it EFTA, EFTA lite, EFTA plus, Canada, Albania, the old white Commonwealth or the Grand Duchy of Fenwick?
This has been a fundamental weakness of the LEAVE campaign. If they don't know how the hell do they expect the voters to ?
"Let’s invite the EU Commissioners to tell us what they think the EU should be, how it should develop in their areas of competence. "
Instead we just have denials that the 5 Presidents report "does not apply" and we "have a veto" and "the tooth fairy lives"*.
*At least 1 of the 3 is untrue.
Therefore, the veto doesn't amount to a hill of beans if it's in the hands of someone who would not use it.
I don't expect that to change your mind, nor anyone else who is rampantly europhile and sees no issue with the present migration pattern.
It is a bit silly though for anyone to pretend that the veto is some form of permanent protection, when the truth is that it depends on who is entrusted with it.
Of course, a UK administration could open the doors anyway, but we get to change our minds every five years. In the EU, everything appears irreversible.
But people want to know what they're voting for. So to that extent it's not an unfair criticism, just a built-in disadvantage.
The deeper the recession preceding the expansion, the more economic 'spare capacity' there is, and the longer the ability of the economy to grow without hitting capacity constraints. Similarly, deep recessions tend to weed out lots of capital misallocation, and often result in meaningful private sector deleveraging.
For this reason, we can reasonably expect this economic expansion to last some time. (With one proviso: the UK continues to run a very large current account deficit. We are dependent - as Spain and Greece were before the Eurozone crisis - on the importation of large amounts of foreign capital to pay our bills.)
CBI/Caroline "we are not saying the figure was accurate".
They rant and rave about appeals to authority and criticise any and every interested figure who makes a public statement.
...and then quote the 5 Presidents' report.
Awesome.
I do wonder if a similar thing happens in politics. Not only with this referendum (and the Scottish one) but when people look at the left and see people who are brainless, or the right and see people who are heartless.
The odd language by some (Alan Johnson's 'extremists' and Cameron suggesting the leader of ISIS would smile if Leave won) does seem indicative of considering the other side to be fearful oiks who are either vile bigots or who don't understand how the world works.
When is the BBC going to start labeling Labour " Far Left "?
See also: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Out-group_homogeneity ("they are alike, we are diverse")
If you were a well educated Ukrainian, would you rather your country was more like Estonia or more like Russia?
Don't the 5 Presidents speak with authority on the EU?
Q: Will the British people have a veto on Turkey joining?
A: Highly unlikely so that is a No (the french people will have).
Q: Is it Cameron's policy and the Govt's stated policy, that Turkey should join at earliest possible time and that by implication the Govt would not exercise a veto?
A: Yes.
Q: Did Cameron sign up to a statement 9 weeks ago that the accession arrangements for Turkey becoming an EU member should be accelerated?
A: Yes.
Q: Should we believe what Cameron and the Government tells us?
A: REMAIN seem to say yes if it suits them and no if it does not suit them.....
They are the ones who pass judgement on authority
To my absolute horror one of my cousins spent some time explaining to me how she couldn’t use her computer anymore because “the man from Microsoft must have got it wrong"
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2016/05/great-huckster-boris-johnson-s-reckless-distortions-history
Even if it were in their power to force us (which it is not), given the problems they have holding it together currenrtly, then the last thing they would want is a country in the Eurozone who didn't want to be there.
" Those people who respect and love Austria and have found a new home here are warmly welcome. "
If someone is basing their argument on their authority, then it is perfectly valid to examine the source of that authority. But you seem to think that questioning that authority at all is wrong.
It has a special unit for chemical weapons research made up of Iraqi scientists who worked on weapons programmes under Saddam Hussein, as well as foreign experts.
The head of the unit, Sleiman Daoud al-Afari, was captured during a raid by US special forces outside Mosul in March and is now sharing intelligence on Isil’s chemical operation.
An investigation by Syrian and Iraqi citizen journalists who report under the name Sound and Picture, reveal he has now been replaced by Abu Shaima, an Iraqi doctor who worked at the University of Baghdad during Saddam’s reign.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/05/22/isil-carrying-out-chemical-experiments-on-its-prisoners-as-it-mo/
As Chesterton wrote:
"For we are the people of England, that never have spoken yet."