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    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,997
    rcs1000 said:

    I'm losing track, are Leavers claiming that Britain doesn't have a veto because, despite the plain words, Britain would never exercise a veto (though it has and recently)? Or is their claim that it doesn't have a veto because no one who would ever get to hold the office of Prime Minister would ever in practice oppose Turkey's membership because David Cameron has previously supported it as a long term goal?

    Leaver logic gets steadily more elusive.

    So presumably the logic of each and every remainer must be the same as that of John McDonnell and Michael Heseltine at the same time because there must be only one remain groupthink? Or perhaps you only prescribe such a ludicrous standard for leavers.
    I ask simply for an acknowledgement from Leavers that Penny Mordaunt lied. The absurd contortions offered to suggest that she spoke to some form of deeper truth merely indicate the extreme silliness of so many Leavers.
    Suddenly to REMAIN a junior minister's words matter more than the head of the UK govt.....

    Q: Will the British people have a veto on Turkey joining?
    A: Highly unlikely so that is a No (the french people will have).

    Q: Is it Cameron's policy and the Govt's stated policy, that Turkey should join at earliest possible time and that by implication the Govt would not exercise a veto?
    A: Yes.

    Q: Did Cameron sign up to a statement 9 weeks ago that the accession arrangements for Turkey becoming an EU member should be accelerated?
    A: Yes.

    Q: Should we believe what Cameron and the Government tells us?
    A: REMAIN seem to say yes if it suits them and no if it does not suit them.....
    I'm a Leaver (as is Richard Tyndall), and we will both say that there is no realistic possibility than Turkey will join the EU given: (a) the French requirement to have a referendum, (b) Greece and Cyprus, and (c) that Turkey will not meet any of the accession criteria.
    And this is why leave will lose. The honesty of your answer and also it's accuracy blows Penny Mordaunt out of the water and again shows how leave are in chaos, but that was to be expected when there are so many competing visions within leave, thereby diluting the credibility of the proposition to leave the EU
  • Options
    VapidBilgeVapidBilge Posts: 412

    Listening to today's controversy re Turkey's succession to the EU and up to 12 million Turks arriving in the UK, leave have again made the mistake of not understanding their brief and Penny Mordaunt's denial of the UK's veto is beyond belief, particularly as is was on Marr, and is now the theme of the day, with everyone from the PM down affirming that not only does the UK have a veto but so does everyone else including Greece. Also video out today of Boris extolling the virtue of Turkey joining the EU, even though leave are making such a big issue of it. I believe the campaign has already been won by remain due to leave's utter incompetence and inability to have a believable alternative outside the EU. Less than 14 days to the postal votes going in and I cannot see anything on the horizon that is a game changer for leave.

    It hardly surprising that a descendant of a Turkish Minister has a more positive view of Turkey than the rest of the Leave campaign, is it?
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,997

    Listening to today's controversy re Turkey's succession to the EU and up to 12 million Turks arriving in the UK, leave have again made the mistake of not understanding their brief and Penny Mordaunt's denial of the UK's veto is beyond belief, particularly as is was on Marr, and is now the theme of the day, with everyone from the PM down affirming that not only does the UK have a veto but so does everyone else including Greece. Also video out today of Boris extolling the virtue of Turkey joining the EU, even though leave are making such a big issue of it. I believe the campaign has already been won by remain due to leave's utter incompetence and inability to have a believable alternative outside the EU. Less than 14 days to the postal votes going in and I cannot see anything on the horizon that is a game changer for leave.

    I do hope Remain's HQ isn't as complacent as this.
    As Chesterton wrote:

    "For we are the people of England, that never have spoken yet."
    It is not England that is speaking it is the United Kingdom
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    And this is why leave will lose. The honesty of your answer and also it's accuracy blows Penny Mordaunt out of the water and again shows how leave are in chaos, but that was to be expected when there are so many competing visions within leave, thereby diluting the credibility of the proposition to leave the EU

    The comparison with Indyref is interesting.

    The SNP case was at least as bogus as the Brexiteers, but their relentless message discipline meant that at least their spokespeople mouthed the same bollocks at all times in every interview.
  • Options
    rcs1000 said:

    I'm losing track, are Leavers claiming that Britain doesn't have a veto because, despite the plain words, Britain would never exercise a veto (though it has and recently)? Or is their claim that it doesn't have a veto because no one who would ever get to hold the office of Prime Minister would ever in practice oppose Turkey's membership because David Cameron has previously supported it as a long term goal?

    Leaver logic gets steadily more elusive.

    So presumably the logic of each and every remainer must be the same as that of John McDonnell and Michael Heseltine at the same time because there must be only one remain groupthink? Or perhaps you only prescribe such a ludicrous standard for leavers.
    I ask simply for an acknowledgement from Leavers that Penny Mordaunt lied. The absurd contortions offered to suggest that she spoke to some form of deeper truth merely indicate the extreme silliness of so many Leavers.
    Suddenly to REMAIN a junior minister's words matter more than the head of the UK govt.....

    Q: Will the British people have a veto on Turkey joining?
    A: Highly unlikely so that is a No (the french people will have).

    Q: Is it Cameron's policy and the Govt's stated policy, that Turkey should join at earliest possible time and that by implication the Govt would not exercise a veto?
    A: Yes.

    Q: Did Cameron sign up to a statement 9 weeks ago that the accession arrangements for Turkey becoming an EU member should be accelerated?
    A: Yes.

    Q: Should we believe what Cameron and the Government tells us?
    A: REMAIN seem to say yes if it suits them and no if it does not suit them.....
    I'm a Leaver (as is Richard Tyndall), and we will both say that there is no realistic possibility than Turkey will join the EU given: (a) the French requirement to have a referendum, (b) Greece and Cyprus, and (c) that Turkey will not meet any of the accession criteria.
    That seems a reasonable view, but it is not what the official position of the Govt is. Maybe the EU is so stupid that it does accede to Turkey and somehow persuades the French that a bit Turkish migration is better than "the hordes". It is all wrapped up in an emergency deal over migrants. After all Merkel suddenly opened the German doors to 1 million young men...
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,997

    Listening to today's controversy re Turkey's succession to the EU and up to 12 million Turks arriving in the UK, leave have again made the mistake of not understanding their brief and Penny Mordaunt's denial of the UK's veto is beyond belief, particularly as is was on Marr, and is now the theme of the day, with everyone from the PM down affirming that not only does the UK have a veto but so does everyone else including Greece. Also video out today of Boris extolling the virtue of Turkey joining the EU, even though leave are making such a big issue of it. I believe the campaign has already been won by remain due to leave's utter incompetence and inability to have a believable alternative outside the EU. Less than 14 days to the postal votes going in and I cannot see anything on the horizon that is a game changer for leave.

    It hardly surprising that a descendant of a Turkish Minister has a more positive view of Turkey than the rest of the Leave campaign, is it?
    Well quite, but he is the leading light for leave who have decided today to make a complete hash of the Turkey accession argument
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    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,691
    edited May 2016
    Scott_P said:

    Well, judging by your re-tweets, you don't seem use judgement at all.

    Look up re-tweet. Please. Just ONE of my fans using the correct terminology would be remarkable.
    Ht to whoever coined re-twat; it has a nail-on-the head quality to it.
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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 24,316
    rcs1000 said:

    daodao said:

    The increased tension in the territories of the former USSR such as the Ukraine is due to the aggressive approach of the EU in its Drang nach Osten.

    It's not only that. Those Eastern European countries that "turned West" and joined the EU have become (relatively) wealthy. (I would point to the Baltic states and most of Eastern Europe.) Those that turned East, sticking inside Russia's orbit in return for cheap natural gas, have not fared so well.

    If you were a well educated Ukrainian, would you rather your country was more like Estonia or more like Russia?
    Is it that simple ?

    If I were a western Ukrainian and therefore a Ukrainian by culture obviuosly the West. If an Easterner and therefore more likely an ethnic russian the choice might not be so clear cut.

    I think the bind the West is in is supporting badly drawn borders rather than telling Ukraine to clear the decks first with a plebiscite and then have 100% support from us.

    The Crimea was given to the Ukraine as a gift over the heads of its people by Stalin. It's not worth a body bag to hand it back.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,129
    Dr. Foxinsox, that's a separate issue, as diversity is a concept rather than a group of people.

    There was a good TED lecture, someone here posted it, I think, about the left generally liking diversity and the right generally preferring what they know.

    Diversity can add new perspectives, but it can also fray common values and social cohesion. It's neither good nor bad in and of itself.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    Ht

    And up pops Divot, who deserves a twat.

    How is your favourite blogger doing these days? You haven't boasted about his Alexa scores recently...

    https://twitter.com/johnboy6125/status/734019233286356992

    Oh.
  • Options

    Listening to today's controversy re Turkey's succession to the EU and up to 12 million Turks arriving in the UK, leave have again made the mistake of not understanding their brief and Penny Mordaunt's denial of the UK's veto is beyond belief, particularly as is was on Marr, and is now the theme of the day, with everyone from the PM down affirming that not only does the UK have a veto but so does everyone else including Greece. Also video out today of Boris extolling the virtue of Turkey joining the EU, even though leave are making such a big issue of it. I believe the campaign has already been won by remain due to leave's utter incompetence and inability to have a believable alternative outside the EU. Less than 14 days to the postal votes going in and I cannot see anything on the horizon that is a game changer for leave.

    If the PM says he wants Turkey to join quickly, he has effectively given up his veto. It is arguable that "my word is my bond" applies!

    It is the same as if a PM said he could not envisage campaigning to leave some group and then started negotiations to get better terms for staying in. In such circumstances the others would give very little ground to the PM as his negotiating position had been fatally undermined. Ring a bell?
  • Options
    VapidBilgeVapidBilge Posts: 412
    Scott_P said:

    Well, judging by your re-tweets, you don't seem use judgement at all.

    Look up re-tweet. Please. Just ONE of my fans using the correct terminology would be remarkable.

    you seem to think that questioning that authority at all is wrong.

    If you read my post, you would see that I discussed Brexiteers wailing about appeals to authority. I made no such claim.
    Oh yes you did.
    Scott_P said:

    Don't the 5 Presidents speak with authority on the EU?

    Ask a Brexiteer.

    They are the ones who pass judgement on authority
    Thus expressly stating that YOU DON'T.

    And your point about re-tweeting? Would you prefer 'posting a tweet'? Does anyone else care? And how different is posting a tweet on a public forum from re-tweeting?
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    BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,087

    Mr. Money, when I was at university there were some interesting theories about racism, one of which revolved around a computer-style approach. It suggested people have a limited processing capacity, and that while we have detailed 'folders' for individuals to whom we're close, acquaintances get a few bulletpoints, and whole groups just get categorised as stereotypes that are all the same.

    I do wonder if a similar thing happens in politics. Not only with this referendum (and the Scottish one) but when people look at the left and see people who are brainless, or the right and see people who are heartless.

    The odd language by some (Alan Johnson's 'extremists' and Cameron suggesting the leader of ISIS would smile if Leave won) does seem indicative of considering the other side to be fearful oiks who are either vile bigots or who don't understand how the world works.

    I agree with the theory that we have limited processing capacity and fall back on "prejudices". I think we do it all the time. Whenever I step into any lift I have a justified prejudice that it is well designed and well maintained and will not plummet to the ground. I don't examine the evidence for that particular lift, even though my life is at stake.

    There is nothing wrong with prejudices. They are essential. The issue is whether a particular prejudice is justified by past experience. I have political prejudices which have strengthened over the years thanks to PB!
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 93,359

    Mr. Money, when I was at university there were some interesting theories about racism, one of which revolved around a computer-style approach. It suggested people have a limited processing capacity, and that while we have detailed 'folders' for individuals to whom we're close, acquaintances get a few bulletpoints, and whole groups just get categorised as stereotypes that are all the same.

    I'd heard a similar idea which was labelled as the monkeysphere (admittedly I saw it on a comedy website) - that we are not set up to be able to think about and care about all of humanity in detail, as individuals, that's why we form tribes and nations, enabling us to extend the sphere of our care, to include more than just those we can actually know. And once you go beyond tribe or small nation, the connections become ever smaller, the emotional connection less intense, not because people are bad, but because it's not possible to treat everyone the same.

    I suppose its the same as the old newspaper headline idea of 1 dead briton being worth more than 10 dead frenchmen or 100 dead people elsewhere.
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    Blue_rogBlue_rog Posts: 2,019

    rcs1000 said:

    I'm losing track, are Leavers claiming that Britain doesn't have a veto because, despite the plain words, Britain would never exercise a veto (though it has and recently)? Or is their claim that it doesn't have a veto because no one who would ever get to hold the office of Prime Minister would ever in practice oppose Turkey's membership because David Cameron has previously supported it as a long term goal?

    Leaver logic gets steadily more elusive.

    So presumably the logic of each and every remainer must be the same as that of John McDonnell and Michael Heseltine at the same time because there must be only one remain groupthink? Or perhaps you only prescribe such a ludicrous standard for leavers.
    I ask simply for an acknowledgement from Leavers that Penny Mordaunt lied. The absurd contortions offered to suggest that she spoke to some form of deeper truth merely indicate the extreme silliness of so many Leavers.
    Suddenly to REMAIN a junior minister's words matter more than the head of the UK govt.....

    Q: Will the British people have a veto on Turkey joining?
    A: Highly unlikely so that is a No (the french people will have).

    Q: Is it Cameron's policy and the Govt's stated policy, that Turkey should join at earliest possible time and that by implication the Govt would not exercise a veto?
    A: Yes.

    Q: Did Cameron sign up to a statement 9 weeks ago that the accession arrangements for Turkey becoming an EU member should be accelerated?
    A: Yes.

    Q: Should we believe what Cameron and the Government tells us?
    A: REMAIN seem to say yes if it suits them and no if it does not suit them.....
    I'm a Leaver (as is Richard Tyndall), and we will both say that there is no realistic possibility than Turkey will join the EU given: (a) the French requirement to have a referendum, (b) Greece and Cyprus, and (c) that Turkey will not meet any of the accession criteria.
    And this is why leave will lose. The honesty of your answer and also it's accuracy blows Penny Mordaunt out of the water and again shows how leave are in chaos, but that was to be expected when there are so many competing visions within leave, thereby diluting the credibility of the proposition to leave the EU
    That's why Merrkel is doing under the table deals to give de facto membership
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    And how different is posting a tweet on a public forum from re-tweeting?

    If you don't understand the difference that explains quite a lot
  • Options
    weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820

    rcs1000 said:

    Austria: projected results expected shortly after polls close (3pm our time, I think):
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-36351359

    Postal votes only counted tomorrow, though.

    Far Right lol
    When is the BBC going to start labeling Labour " Far Left "?
    The Austrians have been given two bloody awful choices: one a right wing nutjob, and the other a left wing nutjob.

    Could happen in France!
    Already happened in America. (Except there are TWO left-wing nutjobs)
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,997

    Listening to today's controversy re Turkey's succession to the EU and up to 12 million Turks arriving in the UK, leave have again made the mistake of not understanding their brief and Penny Mordaunt's denial of the UK's veto is beyond belief, particularly as is was on Marr, and is now the theme of the day, with everyone from the PM down affirming that not only does the UK have a veto but so does everyone else including Greece. Also video out today of Boris extolling the virtue of Turkey joining the EU, even though leave are making such a big issue of it. I believe the campaign has already been won by remain due to leave's utter incompetence and inability to have a believable alternative outside the EU. Less than 14 days to the postal votes going in and I cannot see anything on the horizon that is a game changer for leave.

    If the PM says he wants Turkey to join quickly, he has effectively given up his veto. It is arguable that "my word is my bond" applies!

    It is the same as if a PM said he could not envisage campaigning to leave some group and then started negotiations to get better terms for staying in. In such circumstances the others would give very little ground to the PM as his negotiating position had been fatally undermined. Ring a bell?
    It is not going to happen in years and even then there is a 7 year transition period. Furthermore David Cameron will have retired long before it is even an issue. Leave have today lost the Turkey argument
  • Options
    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 21,203
    I think Hattie will need a stiff drink after that performance.
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,682


    That seems a reasonable view, but it is not what the official position of the Govt is. Maybe the EU is so stupid that it does accede to Turkey and somehow persuades the French that a bit Turkish migration is better than "the hordes". It is all wrapped up in an emergency deal over migrants. After all Merkel suddenly opened the German doors to 1 million young men...

    Yes; but the Turkish Accession Treaty, between the 28 members of the EU, the EU itself, and Turkey (which would be required for Turkey to join the EU) does not happen until all the accession criteria have been met. That - even in the "world's most accelerated process" - would not happen until 2026.

    At which point the government of the day, in the UK, must decide whether there are more voted to be had by signing the treaty, or more votes to be had by not signing it.

    David Cameron's speeches of 2016 may have an influence on the UK government in 2026. But I'm doubtful.
  • Options

    CBI Head Caroline, was distinctly unimpressive on Sunday Politics show.

    Talking of unimpressive. Labourite Pienaar had Eddie Izzard and Andy Pandy on this morning, both were utter crap-ola. Eddie should stick to the funnies, but we are going to have the pleasure of him in politics full time in 4 years time (apparently) and Flippty Floppty was repeating his nonsense about Northern kids bullying people who have aspiration and totally unconvincing about his reasons for wanting to become Mayor of Manchester.
    But we had 35 minutes for two Labour REMAINERs. Followed later with 3 mins for Kwarsi the Conservative LEAVEr. BBC idea of balance?
  • Options
    chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341

    Listening to today's controversy re Turkey's succession to the EU and up to 12 million Turks arriving in the UK, leave have again made the mistake of not understanding their brief and Penny Mordaunt's denial of the UK's veto is beyond belief, particularly as is was on Marr, and is now the theme of the day, with everyone from the PM down affirming that not only does the UK have a veto but so does everyone else including Greece. Also video out today of Boris extolling the virtue of Turkey joining the EU, even though leave are making such a big issue of it. I believe the campaign has already been won by remain due to leave's utter incompetence and inability to have a believable alternative outside the EU. Less than 14 days to the postal votes going in and I cannot see anything on the horizon that is a game changer for leave.

    If the PM says he wants Turkey to join quickly, he has effectively given up his veto. It is arguable that "my word is my bond" applies!

    It is the same as if a PM said he could not envisage campaigning to leave some group and then started negotiations to get better terms for staying in. In such circumstances the others would give very little ground to the PM as his negotiating position had been fatally undermined. Ring a bell?
    It is not going to happen in years and even then there is a 7 year transition period. Furthermore David Cameron will have retired long before it is even an issue. Leave have today lost the Turkey argument
    Taking wishful thinking to a new level.

    Which version of Remain are you offering up? Cameron's? Corbyn's? Juncker's?

  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,997
    Blue_rog said:

    rcs1000 said:

    I'm losing track, are Leavers claiming that Britain doesn't have a veto because, despite the plain words, Britain would never exercise a veto (though it has and recently)? Or is their claim that it doesn't have a veto because no one who would ever get to hold the office of Prime Minister would ever in practice oppose Turkey's membership because David Cameron has previously supported it as a long term goal?

    Leaver logic gets steadily more elusive.

    So presumably the logic of each and every remainer must be the same as that of John McDonnell and Michael Heseltine at the same time because there must be only one remain groupthink? Or perhaps you only prescribe such a ludicrous standard for leavers.
    I ask simply for an acknowledgement from Leavers that Penny Mordaunt lied. The absurd contortions offered to suggest that she spoke to some form of deeper truth merely indicate the extreme silliness of so many Leavers.
    Suddenly to REMAIN a junior minister's words matter more than the head of the UK govt.....

    Q: Will the British people have a veto on Turkey joining?
    A: Highly unlikely so that is a No (the french people will have).

    Q: Is it Cameron's policy and the Govt's stated policy, that Turkey should join at earliest possible time and that by implication the Govt would not exercise a veto?
    A: Yes.

    Q: Did Cameron sign up to a statement 9 weeks ago that the accession arrangements for Turkey becoming an EU member should be accelerated?
    A: Yes.

    Q: Should we believe what Cameron and the Government tells us?
    A: REMAIN seem to say yes if it suits them and no if it does not suit them.....
    I'm a Leaver (as is Richard Tyndall), and we will both say that there is no realistic possibility than Turkey will join the EU given: (a) the French requirement to have a referendum, (b) Greece and Cyprus, and (c) that Turkey will not meet any of the accession criteria.
    And this is why leave will lose. The honesty of your answer and also it's accuracy blows Penny Mordaunt out of the water and again shows how leave are in chaos, but that was to be expected when there are so many competing visions within leave, thereby diluting the credibility of the proposition to leave the EU
    That's why Merrkel is doing under the table deals to give de facto membership
    Whatever Merkel is trying to do and what Turkey may or may not agree to is not membership of the EU - Turkey's membership is years away if ever.Today's project fear by leave has singularly failed and been shown to have no creditability
  • Options
    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,375
    chestnut said:

    Listening to today's controversy re Turkey's succession to the EU and up to 12 million Turks arriving in the UK, leave have again made the mistake of not understanding their brief and Penny Mordaunt's denial of the UK's veto is beyond belief, particularly as is was on Marr, and is now the theme of the day, with everyone from the PM down affirming that not only does the UK have a veto but so does everyone else including Greece. Also video out today of Boris extolling the virtue of Turkey joining the EU, even though leave are making such a big issue of it. I believe the campaign has already been won by remain due to leave's utter incompetence and inability to have a believable alternative outside the EU. Less than 14 days to the postal votes going in and I cannot see anything on the horizon that is a game changer for leave.

    If the PM says he wants Turkey to join quickly, he has effectively given up his veto. It is arguable that "my word is my bond" applies!

    It is the same as if a PM said he could not envisage campaigning to leave some group and then started negotiations to get better terms for staying in. In such circumstances the others would give very little ground to the PM as his negotiating position had been fatally undermined. Ring a bell?
    It is not going to happen in years and even then there is a 7 year transition period. Furthermore David Cameron will have retired long before it is even an issue. Leave have today lost the Turkey argument
    Taking wishful thinking to a new level.

    Which version of Remain are you offering up? Cameron's? Corbyn's? Juncker's?

    I don’t believe a word Cameron says.
  • Options
    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,691
    edited May 2016
    Scott_P said:

    Ht

    And up pops Divot, who deserves a twat.

    How is your favourite blogger doing these days? You haven't boasted about his Alexa scores recently...

    https://twitter.com/johnboy6125/status/734019233286356992

    Oh.
    Good re-twat.

    Unlike Wings' Yoon fanboys I don't monitor his ratings on a regular basis, however...

    Failing Nat blog

    Global rank 85,212
    Rank in United Kingdom 3,545

    'Britain's most read political blog'

    Global rank 239,298
    Rank in United Kingdom 9,315


    Oh.
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,491
    JackW said:

    malcolmg said:

    UK is scared of shadows, bogey men everywhere. Putin must have a great laugh at the state of the UK.

    You won't be laughing when Putin orders giant turnips to invade Ayrshire. The Soviet Union root vegetable spetsnaz is coming to get you.

    We are stocked up on vegetable peelers, we will meet them on the beaches
  • Options
    VapidBilgeVapidBilge Posts: 412
    rcs1000 said:


    That seems a reasonable view, but it is not what the official position of the Govt is. Maybe the EU is so stupid that it does accede to Turkey and somehow persuades the French that a bit Turkish migration is better than "the hordes". It is all wrapped up in an emergency deal over migrants. After all Merkel suddenly opened the German doors to 1 million young men...

    Yes; but the Turkish Accession Treaty, between the 28 members of the EU, the EU itself, and Turkey (which would be required for Turkey to join the EU) does not happen until all the accession criteria have been met. That - even in the "world's most accelerated process" - would not happen until 2026.

    At which point the government of the day, in the UK, must decide whether there are more voted to be had by signing the treaty, or more votes to be had by not signing it.

    David Cameron's speeches of 2016 may have an influence on the UK government in 2026. But I'm doubtful.
    But, presumably, his speeches will have some influence over the referendum and it's aftermath, which would render irrelevant any discussion about Turkey joining an organisation we were no longer a member of.
  • Options
    TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    edited May 2016
    Sean_F said:

    Mr. F, accepting the lack of choice, Cameron's still mishandled it.

    It seems likely we'll have a recession at some point between now and 2020. If Leave win, this will be blamed on Leave. Indeed, any difficulty that arises will be blamed on Leave.
    If Remain win, then Leave supporters will say " told you so", every time the EU does something we don't like. UKIP will keep chipping away at Conservative support. Some Conservatives who reluctantly voted Remain will feel like Labour supporters who reluctantly backed Tony Blair over Iraq.
    Agreed. One way REMAIN could lower the problems inside the Conservative party is if LEAVErs take over many of the key roles starting with the PM. But since Cameron and Osborne no longer care for the party I cannot see sense prevailing.
  • Options
    VapidBilgeVapidBilge Posts: 412
    edited May 2016



    Whatever Merkel is trying to do and what Turkey may or may not agree to is not membership of the EU - Turkey's membership is years away if ever.Today's project fear by leave has singularly failed and been shown to have no creditability

    Huh? All those refugees from Turkey coming into the EU and you're prattling over the technical form of free movement? Money hasn't even been mentioned in relation to Turkey.

    You have noticed that the emphasis of Leave has moved to immigration, haven't you?
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 77,804
    edited May 2016

    CBI Head Caroline, was distinctly unimpressive on Sunday Politics show.

    Talking of unimpressive. Labourite Pienaar had Eddie Izzard and Andy Pandy on this morning, both were utter crap-ola. Eddie should stick to the funnies, but we are going to have the pleasure of him in politics full time in 4 years time (apparently) and Flippty Floppty was repeating his nonsense about Northern kids bullying people who have aspiration and totally unconvincing about his reasons for wanting to become Mayor of Manchester.
    But we had 35 minutes for two Labour REMAINERs. Followed later with 3 mins for Kwarsi the Conservative LEAVEr. BBC idea of balance?
    I am sure they will say they think they got it about right ;-)

    It was pathetic though. Pienaar even said at one point ok enough of the Labour PPB...Pienaar softballing Izzard and Burnham and they were still useless.
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,491

    Scott_P said:

    Ht

    And up pops Divot, who deserves a twat.

    How is your favourite blogger doing these days? You haven't boasted about his Alexa scores recently...

    https://twitter.com/johnboy6125/status/734019233286356992

    Oh.
    Good re-twat.

    Unlike Wings' Yoon fanboys I don't monitor his ratings on a regular basis, however...

    Failing Nat blog

    Global rank 85,212
    Rank in United Kingdom 3,545

    'Britain's most read political blog'

    Global rank 239,298
    Rank in United Kingdom 9,315


    Oh.
    A twat to rival our site specialist's selective input:

    Wings Over Scotland ‏@WingsScotland 3h3 hours ago

    @GAPonsonby @NewsnetScotland Our "decreasing readership" is 50,000 up on last year and May so far is already higher than all of April..

  • Options
    MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    chestnut said:

    Listening to today's controversy re Turkey's succession to the EU and up to 12 million Turks arriving in the UK, leave have again made the mistake of not understanding their brief and Penny Mordaunt's denial of the UK's veto is beyond belief, particularly as is was on Marr, and is now the theme of the day, with everyone from the PM down affirming that not only does the UK have a veto but so does everyone else including Greece. Also video out today of Boris extolling the virtue of Turkey joining the EU, even though leave are making such a big issue of it. I believe the campaign has already been won by remain due to leave's utter incompetence and inability to have a believable alternative outside the EU. Less than 14 days to the postal votes going in and I cannot see anything on the horizon that is a game changer for leave.

    If the PM says he wants Turkey to join quickly, he has effectively given up his veto. It is arguable that "my word is my bond" applies!

    It is the same as if a PM said he could not envisage campaigning to leave some group and then started negotiations to get better terms for staying in. In such circumstances the others would give very little ground to the PM as his negotiating position had been fatally undermined. Ring a bell?
    It is not going to happen in years and even then there is a 7 year transition period. Furthermore David Cameron will have retired long before it is even an issue. Leave have today lost the Turkey argument
    Taking wishful thinking to a new level.

    Which version of Remain are you offering up? Cameron's? Corbyn's? Juncker's?

    PB Europhiles will have us believe the status quo is possible. I don't know if they are being deliberately deceitful or just incredibly naive.
  • Options
    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,472

    I think Hattie will need a stiff drink after that performance.

    It was an absolute car crash. It confirms to me that there are many on the Remain side (mostly Labour) who haven't thought through what this EU thing is all about. She appeared to not understand what trade tariffs are and didn't have a clue who the key men of the EU are. Remain need to lock her up and not let her out until June 24.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 118,062
    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Great piece for Remainers to consider - what do they really want? Believe they can vote for a status quo that isn't on the ballot paper - or that they want More EU? Only the latter is on offer.

    http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/focus/stop-traipsing-down-the-up-escalator-leaving-would-let-britain-grow-7zxg9tvl2

    There are 3 potential outcomes from the referendum.

    1. Leave win and we leave the EU.

    2. Remain win narrowly with 50 to 55%, UKIP rise in the polls and push for another vote and the electorate have clearly backed the status quo only and with Cameron's supposed reforms

    3. Remain win by close to 60%+ and the EU may start pressing for further UK integration, maybe even the Euro if polls start to shift there too and will see the British electorate as having given a wholehearted endorsement of the EU project
    I don't see either (a) how the EU could even attempt to get us to join the Eurozone, or (b) why they would want to.

    Even if it were in their power to force us (which it is not), given the problems they have holding it together currenrtly, then the last thing they would want is a country in the Eurozone who didn't want to be there.
    Yes but if the UK votes strongly to Remain in the EU ie 60%+ many in the EU may see that as suggesting the UK does want to be 'at the heart of Europe' and may push the Euro issue again
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,997
    chestnut said:

    Listening to today's controversy re Turkey's succession to the EU and up to 12 million Turks arriving in the UK, leave have again made the mistake of not understanding their brief and Penny Mordaunt's denial of the UK's veto is beyond belief, particularly as is was on Marr, and is now the theme of the day, with everyone from the PM down affirming that not only does the UK have a veto but so does everyone else including Greece. Also video out today of Boris extolling the virtue of Turkey joining the EU, even though leave are making such a big issue of it. I believe the campaign has already been won by remain due to leave's utter incompetence and inability to have a believable alternative outside the EU. Less than 14 days to the postal votes going in and I cannot see anything on the horizon that is a game changer for leave.

    If the PM says he wants Turkey to join quickly, he has effectively given up his veto. It is arguable that "my word is my bond" applies!

    It is the same as if a PM said he could not envisage campaigning to leave some group and then started negotiations to get better terms for staying in. In such circumstances the others would give very little ground to the PM as his negotiating position had been fatally undermined. Ring a bell?
    It is not going to happen in years and even then there is a 7 year transition period. Furthermore David Cameron will have retired long before it is even an issue. Leave have today lost the Turkey argument
    Taking wishful thinking to a new level.

    Which version of Remain are you offering up? Cameron's? Corbyn's? Juncker's?

    I believe the UK is better at the table in an EU that is facing enormous change and that quite simply leave have failed to make any case to justify the economic and security risks that a leap in the dark would involve.
  • Options

    Blue_rog said:

    rcs1000 said:

    I'm losing track, are Leavers claiming that Britain doesn't have a veto because...

    So presumably the logic of each and every remainer must be the same as that of John McDonnell and Michael Heseltine at the same time because there must be only one remain groupthink? Or perhaps you only prescribe such a ludicrous standard for leavers.
    I ask simply for an acknowledgement from Leavers that Penny Mordaunt lied. The absurd contortions offered to suggest that she spoke to some form of deeper truth merely indicate the extreme silliness of so many Leavers.
    Suddenly to REMAIN a junior minister's words matter more than the head of the UK govt.....
    Q: Will the British people have a veto on Turkey joining?
    A: Highly unlikely so that is a No (the french people will have).
    Q: Is it Cameron's policy and the Govt's stated policy, that Turkey should join at earliest possible time and that by implication the Govt would not exercise a veto?
    A: Yes.
    Q: Did Cameron sign up to a statement 9 weeks ago that the accession arrangements for Turkey becoming an EU member should be accelerated?
    A: Yes.
    Q: Should we believe what Cameron and the Government tells us?
    A: REMAIN seem to say yes if it suits them and no if it does not suit them.....
    I'm a Leaver (as is Richard Tyndall), and we will both say that there is no realistic possibility than Turkey will join the EU given: (a) the French requirement to have a referendum, (b) Greece and Cyprus, and (c) that Turkey will not meet any of the accession criteria.
    And this is why leave will lose. The honesty of your answer and also it's accuracy blows Penny Mordaunt out of the water and again shows how leave are in chaos, but that was to be expected when there are so many competing visions within leave, thereby diluting the credibility of the proposition to leave the EU
    That's why Merrkel is doing under the table deals to give de facto membership
    Whatever Merkel is trying to do and what Turkey may or may not agree to is not membership of the EU - Turkey's membership is years away if ever.Today's project fear by leave has singularly failed and been shown to have no creditability
    Credibility? Is that the same as the official UK government forecast of 20,000 more people from Poland etc countries that turned into >1 million? You seem to trust the UK Government on an issue that they have spectacularly failed.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 118,062

    Sean_F said:

    Mr. F, accepting the lack of choice, Cameron's still mishandled it.

    It seems likely we'll have a recession at some point between now and 2020. If Leave win, this will be blamed on Leave. Indeed, any difficulty that arises will be blamed on Leave.
    If Remain win, then Leave supporters will say " told you so", every time the EU does something we don't like. UKIP will keep chipping away at Conservative support. Some Conservatives who reluctantly voted Remain will feel like Labour supporters who reluctantly backed Tony Blair over Iraq.
    Agreed. One way REMAIN could lower the problems inside the Conservative party is if LEAVErs take over many of the key roles starting with the PM. But since Cameron and Osborne no longer care for the party I cannot see sense prevailing.
    If Remain win then we will have a Remain PM it is as simple as that. If Leave want a Leave backing PM they need to win the referendum
  • Options
    HYUFD said:

    Sean_F said:

    Mr. F, accepting the lack of choice, Cameron's still mishandled it.

    It seems likely we'll have a recession at some point between now and 2020. If Leave win, this will be blamed on Leave. Indeed, any difficulty that arises will be blamed on Leave.
    If Remain win, then Leave supporters will say " told you so", every time the EU does something we don't like. UKIP will keep chipping away at Conservative support. Some Conservatives who reluctantly voted Remain will feel like Labour supporters who reluctantly backed Tony Blair over Iraq.
    Agreed. One way REMAIN could lower the problems inside the Conservative party is if LEAVErs take over many of the key roles starting with the PM. But since Cameron and Osborne no longer care for the party I cannot see sense prevailing.
    If Remain win then we will have a Remain PM it is as simple as that. If Leave want a Leave backing PM they need to win the referendum
    Not how it may work out inside the party. 2/3 of members are for LEAVE and they will decide.
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,997



    Whatever Merkel is trying to do and what Turkey may or may not agree to is not membership of the EU - Turkey's membership is years away if ever.Today's project fear by leave has singularly failed and been shown to have no creditability

    Huh? All those refugees from Turkey coming into the EU and you're prattling over the technical form of free movement? Money hasn't even been mentioned in relation to Turkey.

    You have noticed that the emphasis of Leave has moved to immigration, haven't you?
    Game set and match to remain
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 118,062
    edited May 2016
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Austria: projected results expected shortly after polls close (3pm our time, I think):
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-36351359

    Postal votes only counted tomorrow, though.

    Far Right lol
    When is the BBC going to start labeling Labour " Far Left "?
    The Austrians have been given two bloody awful choices: one a right wing nutjob, and the other a left wing nutjob.

    Could happen in France!
    Theoretically possible, but all the polls from France have the PS a long way behind Les Republicans in third place. If Juppe is the candidate for LR, then it's highly likely he'll be leading by a fair margin even in the first round.
    If Sarkozy is the candidate all the polls suggest Marine Le Pen will come first, Sarkozy could even come third, especially if Valls or Macron ends up the PS candidate
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    tlg86 said:

    I think Hattie will need a stiff drink after that performance.

    It was an absolute car crash. It confirms to me that there are many on the Remain side (mostly Labour) who haven't thought through what this EU thing is all about. She appeared to not understand what trade tariffs are and didn't have a clue who the key men of the EU are. Remain need to lock her up and not let her out until June 24.
    She was her usual self. Surprised that the "wonderful EU" that she supported was headed up by men.... Quite funny.
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    MP_SE said:

    chestnut said:

    Listening to today's controversy re Turkey's succession to the EU and up to 12 million Turks arriving in the UK, leave have again made the mistake of not understanding their brief and Penny Mordaunt's denial of the UK's veto is beyond belief, particularly as is was on Marr, and is now the theme of the day, with everyone from the PM down affirming that not only does the UK have a veto but so does everyone else including Greece. Also video out today of Boris extolling the virtue of Turkey joining the EU, even though leave are making such a big issue of it. I believe the campaign has already been won by remain due to leave's utter incompetence and inability to have a believable alternative outside the EU. Less than 14 days to the postal votes going in and I cannot see anything on the horizon that is a game changer for leave.

    If the PM says he wants Turkey to join quickly, he has effectively given up his veto. It is arguable that "my word is my bond" applies!

    It is the same as if a PM said he could not envisage campaigning to leave some group and then started negotiations to get better terms for staying in. In such circumstances the others would give very little ground to the PM as his negotiating position had been fatally undermined. Ring a bell?
    It is not going to happen in years and even then there is a 7 year transition period. Furthermore David Cameron will have retired long before it is even an issue. Leave have today lost the Turkey argument
    Taking wishful thinking to a new level.

    Which version of Remain are you offering up? Cameron's? Corbyn's? Juncker's?

    PB Europhiles will have us believe the status quo is possible. I don't know if they are being deliberately deceitful or just incredibly naive.
    A mixture of both.
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,997

    HYUFD said:

    Sean_F said:

    Mr. F, accepting the lack of choice, Cameron's still mishandled it.

    It seems likely we'll have a recession at some point between now and 2020. If Leave win, this will be blamed on Leave. Indeed, any difficulty that arises will be blamed on Leave.
    If Remain win, then Leave supporters will say " told you so", every time the EU does something we don't like. UKIP will keep chipping away at Conservative support. Some Conservatives who reluctantly voted Remain will feel like Labour supporters who reluctantly backed Tony Blair over Iraq.
    Agreed. One way REMAIN could lower the problems inside the Conservative party is if LEAVErs take over many of the key roles starting with the PM. But since Cameron and Osborne no longer care for the party I cannot see sense prevailing.
    If Remain win then we will have a Remain PM it is as simple as that. If Leave want a Leave backing PM they need to win the referendum
    Not how it may work out inside the party. 2/3 of members are for LEAVE and they will decide.
    Evidence for that statement please.
  • Options

    chestnut said:

    Listening to today's controversy re Turkey's succession to the EU and up to 12 million Turks arriving in the UK, leave have again made the mistake of not understanding their brief and Penny Mordaunt's denial of the UK's veto is beyond belief, particularly as is was on Marr, and is now the theme of the day, with everyone from the PM down affirming that not only does the UK have a veto but so does everyone else including Greece. Also video out today of Boris extolling the virtue of Turkey joining the EU, even though leave are making such a big issue of it. I believe the campaign has already been won by remain due to leave's utter incompetence and inability to have a believable alternative outside the EU. Less than 14 days to the postal votes going in and I cannot see anything on the horizon that is a game changer for leave.

    If the PM says he wants Turkey to join quickly, he has effectively given up his veto. It is arguable that "my word is my bond" applies!

    It is the same as if a PM said he could not envisage campaigning to leave some group and then started negotiations to get better terms for staying in. In such circumstances the others would give very little ground to the PM as his negotiating position had been fatally undermined. Ring a bell?
    It is not going to happen in years and even then there is a 7 year transition period. Furthermore David Cameron will have retired long before it is even an issue. Leave have today lost the Turkey argument
    Taking wishful thinking to a new level.

    Which version of Remain are you offering up? Cameron's? Corbyn's? Juncker's?

    I believe the UK is better at the table in an EU that is facing enormous change and that quite simply leave have failed to make any case to justify the economic and security risks that a leap in the dark would involve.
    Which version of Remain are you offering up? Cameron's? Corbyn's? Juncker's?
  • Options

    CBI Head Caroline, was distinctly unimpressive on Sunday Politics show.

    Talking of unimpressive. Labourite Pienaar had Eddie Izzard and Andy Pandy on this morning, both were utter crap-ola. Eddie should stick to the funnies, but we are going to have the pleasure of him in politics full time in 4 years time (apparently) and Flippty Floppty was repeating his nonsense about Northern kids bullying people who have aspiration and totally unconvincing about his reasons for wanting to become Mayor of Manchester.
    But we had 35 minutes for two Labour REMAINERs. Followed later with 3 mins for Kwarsi the Conservative LEAVEr. BBC idea of balance?
    I am sure they will say they think they got it about right ;-)

    It was pathetic though. Pienaar even said at one point ok enough of the Labour PPB...Pienaar softballing Izzard and Burnham and they were still useless.
    I wonder why Labour thought that Pienaar would be on their side, so they tried to hire him to work for Ed Miliband?
  • Options
    MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    edited May 2016

    chestnut said:

    Listening to today's controversy re Turkey's succession to the EU and up to 12 million Turks arriving in the UK, leave have again made the mistake of not understanding their brief and Penny Mordaunt's denial of the UK's veto is beyond belief, particularly as is was on Marr, and is now the theme of the day, with everyone from the PM down affirming that not only does the UK have a veto but so does everyone else including Greece. Also video out today of Boris extolling the virtue of Turkey joining the EU, even though leave are making such a big issue of it. I believe the campaign has already been won by remain due to leave's utter incompetence and inability to have a believable alternative outside the EU. Less than 14 days to the postal votes going in and I cannot see anything on the horizon that is a game changer for leave.

    If the PM says he wants Turkey to join quickly, he has effectively given up his veto. It is arguable that "my word is my bond" applies!

    It is the same as if a PM said he could not envisage campaigning to leave some group and then started negotiations to get better terms for staying in. In such circumstances the others would give very little ground to the PM as his negotiating position had been fatally undermined. Ring a bell?
    It is not going to happen in years and even then there is a 7 year transition period. Furthermore David Cameron will have retired long before it is even an issue. Leave have today lost the Turkey argument
    Taking wishful thinking to a new level.

    Which version of Remain are you offering up? Cameron's? Corbyn's? Juncker's?

    I believe the UK is better at the table in an EU that is facing enormous change and that quite simply leave have failed to make any case to justify the economic and security risks that a leap in the dark would involve.
    The EU is facing enormous problems, mainly brought about as a result of the eurozone. You mention having a seat at the top table. The UK is excluded from Eurogroup meetings as they have not adopted the Euro...
  • Options
    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    tlg86 said:

    I think Hattie will need a stiff drink after that performance.

    It was an absolute car crash. It confirms to me that there are many on the Remain side (mostly Labour) who haven't thought through what this EU thing is all about. She appeared to not understand what trade tariffs are and didn't have a clue who the key men of the EU are. Remain need to lock her up and not let her out until June 24.
    Is it entertaining enough to watch?
  • Options
    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,472
    edited May 2016

    tlg86 said:

    I think Hattie will need a stiff drink after that performance.

    It was an absolute car crash. It confirms to me that there are many on the Remain side (mostly Labour) who haven't thought through what this EU thing is all about. She appeared to not understand what trade tariffs are and didn't have a clue who the key men of the EU are. Remain need to lock her up and not let her out until June 24.
    She was her usual self. Surprised that the "wonderful EU" that she supported was headed up by men.... Quite funny.
    One of the best moments of the campaign so far. "You mean, as a feminist I'm on the wrong side of the argument?" It was a shame that none of the panellists pointed out that May is playing the game of keeping her head down to assist with her ambitions of becoming the next PM.

    Is it entertaining enough to watch?

    Definitely!
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,997
    MP_SE said:

    chestnut said:

    Listening to today's controversy re Turkey's succession to the EU and up to 12 million Turks arriving in the UK, leave have again made the mistake of not understanding their brief and Penny Mordaunt's denial of the UK's veto is beyond belief, particularly as is was on Marr, and is now the theme of the day, with everyone from the PM down affirming that not only does the UK have a veto but so does everyone else including Greece. Also video out today of Boris extolling the virtue of Turkey joining the EU, even though leave are making such a big issue of it. I believe the campaign has already been won by remain due to leave's utter incompetence and inability to have a believable alternative outside the EU. Less than 14 days to the postal votes going in and I cannot see anything on the horizon that is a game changer for leave.

    If the PM says he wants Turkey to join quickly, he has effectively given up his veto. It is arguable that "my word is my bond" applies!

    It is the same as if a PM said he could not envisage campaigning to leave some group and then started negotiations to get better terms for staying in. In such circumstances the others would give very little ground to the PM as his negotiating position had been fatally undermined. Ring a bell?
    It is not going to happen in years and even then there is a 7 year transition period. Furthermore David Cameron will have retired long before it is even an issue. Leave have today lost the Turkey argument
    Taking wishful thinking to a new level.

    Which version of Remain are you offering up? Cameron's? Corbyn's? Juncker's?

    I believe the UK is better at the table in an EU that is facing enormous change and that quite simply leave have failed to make any case to justify the economic and security risks that a leap in the dark would involve.
    The EU is facing enormous problems, mainly brought about as a result of the eurozone. You mention having a seat at the top table. The UK is excluded from Eurogroup meetings as they have not adopted the Euro...
    Last time I looked the EU comprised 28 Countries and that we are one of the 28, therefore that is a seat at the top table as far as I am concerned
  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    rcs1000 said:

    I'm losing track, are Leavers claiming that Britain doesn't have a veto because, despite the plain words, Britain would never exercise a veto (though it has and recently)? Or is their claim that it doesn't have a veto because no one who would ever get to hold the office of Prime Minister would ever in practice oppose Turkey's membership because David Cameron has previously supported it as a long term goal?

    Leaver logic gets steadily more elusive.

    So presumably the logic of each and every remainer must be the same as that of John McDonnell and Michael Heseltine at the same time because there must be only one remain groupthink? Or perhaps you only prescribe such a ludicrous standard for leavers.
    I ask simply for an acknowledgement from Leavers that Penny Mordaunt lied. The absurd contortions offered to suggest that she spoke to some form of deeper truth merely indicate the extreme silliness of so many Leavers.
    Suddenly to REMAIN a junior minister's words matter more than the head of the UK govt.....

    Q: Will the British people have a veto on Turkey joining?
    A: Highly unlikely so that is a No (the french people will have).

    Q: Is it Cameron's policy and the Govt's stated policy, that Turkey should join at earliest possible time and that by implication the Govt would not exercise a veto?
    A: Yes.

    Q: Did Cameron sign up to a statement 9 weeks ago that the accession arrangements for Turkey becoming an EU member should be accelerated?
    A: Yes.

    Q: Should we believe what Cameron and the Government tells us?
    A: REMAIN seem to say yes if it suits them and no if it does not suit them.....
    I'm a Leaver (as is Richard Tyndall), and we will both say that there is no realistic possibility than Turkey will join the EU given: (a) the French requirement to have a referendum, (b) Greece and Cyprus, and (c) that Turkey will not meet any of the accession criteria.
    And this is why leave will lose. The honesty of your answer and also it's accuracy blows Penny Mordaunt out of the water and again shows how leave are in chaos, but that was to be expected when there are so many competing visions within leave, thereby diluting the credibility of the proposition to leave the EU
    Depends how you define the question.

    Do we (the British electorate who are voting next month) have a veto? No we do not.
    Does the British government with a stated policy of accepting Turkey as soon as possible have a veto? Yes.

    Is this the last chance we (as the British electorate) have to stop Turkish membership? Almost certainly yes.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 118,062

    HYUFD said:

    Sean_F said:

    Mr. F, accepting the lack of choice, Cameron's still mishandled it.

    It seems likely we'll have a recession at some point between now and 2020. If Leave win, this will be blamed on Leave. Indeed, any difficulty that arises will be blamed on Leave.
    If Remain win, then Leave supporters will say " told you so", every time the EU does something we don't like. UKIP will keep chipping away at Conservative support. Some Conservatives who reluctantly voted Remain will feel like Labour supporters who reluctantly backed Tony Blair over Iraq.
    Agreed. One way REMAIN could lower the problems inside the Conservative party is if LEAVErs take over many of the key roles starting with the PM. But since Cameron and Osborne no longer care for the party I cannot see sense prevailing.
    If Remain win then we will have a Remain PM it is as simple as that. If Leave want a Leave backing PM they need to win the referendum
    Not how it may work out inside the party. 2/3 of members are for LEAVE and they will decide.
    It is the MPs who will actually decide who the final 2 are, if Remain win a Leave candidate may not be put to the members. It could be Osborne v a sceptical Remainer like Hammond or May
  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    MP_SE said:

    chestnut said:

    Listening to today's controversy re Turkey's succession to the EU and up to 12 million Turks arriving in the UK, leave have again made the mistake of not understanding their brief and Penny Mordaunt's denial of the UK's veto is beyond belief, particularly as is was on Marr, and is now the theme of the day, with everyone from the PM down affirming that not only does the UK have a veto but so does everyone else including Greece. Also video out today of Boris extolling the virtue of Turkey joining the EU, even though leave are making such a big issue of it. I believe the campaign has already been won by remain due to leave's utter incompetence and inability to have a believable alternative outside the EU. Less than 14 days to the postal votes going in and I cannot see anything on the horizon that is a game changer for leave.

    If the PM says he wants Turkey to join quickly, he has effectively given up his veto. It is arguable that "my word is my bond" applies!

    It is the same as if a PM said he could not envisage campaigning to leave some group and then started negotiations to get better terms for staying in. In such circumstances the others would give very little ground to the PM as his negotiating position had been fatally undermined. Ring a bell?
    It is not going to happen in years and even then there is a 7 year transition period. Furthermore David Cameron will have retired long before it is even an issue. Leave have today lost the Turkey argument
    Taking wishful thinking to a new level.

    Which version of Remain are you offering up? Cameron's? Corbyn's? Juncker's?

    I believe the UK is better at the table in an EU that is facing enormous change and that quite simply leave have failed to make any case to justify the economic and security risks that a leap in the dark would involve.
    The EU is facing enormous problems, mainly brought about as a result of the eurozone. You mention having a seat at the top table. The UK is excluded from Eurogroup meetings as they have not adopted the Euro...
    Last time I looked the EU comprised 28 Countries and that we are one of the 28, therefore that is a seat at the top table as far as I am concerned
    Do we have a seat at the ECB? No.
    Do we have a seat at the WTO? No.

    We are caught in no-mans land without any seat.
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    HYUFD said:

    if Remain win a Leave candidate may not be put to the members. It could be Osborne v a sceptical Remainer like Hammond or May

    Boris is doing his utmost to keep himself off the ballot
  • Options
    VapidBilgeVapidBilge Posts: 412
    Scott_P said:

    And how different is posting a tweet on a public forum from re-tweeting?

    If you don't understand the difference that explains quite a lot
    So, let's see if I understand it, as you can't be bothered to explain. (I take it you accept my other point, as you seem to want to discuss this arcane point.)

    Re-tweeting: tweeting a post to your followers, but unless settings are changed, they can also be read on the WWW.

    Scott_and_Pasting: posting a tweet on PB for its readers which is read on the WWW.

    So, re-tweeting is more push media?

    Which brings me to what I've been wondering. How many people do you follow on Twitter? I mean, judging by your varied re-posts, you must be inundated with crap, some of which you actually post on here.
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,997


    I'm a Leaver (as is Richard Tyndall), and we will both say that there is no realistic possibility than Turkey will join the EU given: (a) the French requirement to have a referendum, (b) Greece and Cyprus, and (c) that Turkey will not meet any of the accession criteria.

    And this is why leave will lose. The honesty of your answer and also it's accuracy blows Penny Mordaunt out of the water and again shows how leave are in chaos, but that was to be expected when there are so many competing visions within leave, thereby diluting the credibility of the proposition to leave the EU

    Depends how you define the question.

    Do we (the British electorate who are voting next month) have a veto? No we do not.
    Does the British government with a stated policy of accepting Turkey as soon as possible have a veto? Yes.

    Is this the last chance we (as the British electorate) have to stop Turkish membership? Almost certainly yes.

    With respect that is just nonsense. If and when Turkey are in a position to meet membership rules not only David Cameron, but most of today's politicians will have left office, and the government of the day will have the right to veto or otherwise Turkey's membersghip
  • Options
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sean_F said:

    Mr. F, accepting the lack of choice, Cameron's still mishandled it.

    It seems likely we'll have a recession at some point between now and 2020. If Leave win, this will be blamed on Leave. Indeed, any difficulty that arises will be blamed on Leave.
    If Remain win, then Leave supporters will say " told you so", every time the EU does something we don't like. UKIP will keep chipping away at Conservative support. Some Conservatives who reluctantly voted Remain will feel like Labour supporters who reluctantly backed Tony Blair over Iraq.
    Agreed. One way REMAIN could lower the problems inside the Conservative party is if LEAVErs take over many of the key roles starting with the PM. But since Cameron and Osborne no longer care for the party I cannot see sense prevailing.
    If Remain win then we will have a Remain PM it is as simple as that. If Leave want a Leave backing PM they need to win the referendum
    Not how it may work out inside the party. 2/3 of members are for LEAVE and they will decide.
    It is the MPs who will actually decide who the final 2 are, if Remain win a Leave candidate may not be put to the members. It could be Osborne v a sceptical Remainer like Hammond or May
    There are 140+ MPs openly out for LEAVE. More than enough to get one of the two slots for members. There are another group of REMAINers who are against Osborne and want him out, some through ambition and others because they want to retain their seat at the GE and know Osborne is toxic.
  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    HYUFD said:

    Sean_F said:

    Mr. F, accepting the lack of choice, Cameron's still mishandled it.

    It seems likely we'll have a recession at some point between now and 2020. If Leave win, this will be blamed on Leave. Indeed, any difficulty that arises will be blamed on Leave.
    If Remain win, then Leave supporters will say " told you so", every time the EU does something we don't like. UKIP will keep chipping away at Conservative support. Some Conservatives who reluctantly voted Remain will feel like Labour supporters who reluctantly backed Tony Blair over Iraq.
    Agreed. One way REMAIN could lower the problems inside the Conservative party is if LEAVErs take over many of the key roles starting with the PM. But since Cameron and Osborne no longer care for the party I cannot see sense prevailing.
    If Remain win then we will have a Remain PM it is as simple as that. If Leave want a Leave backing PM they need to win the referendum
    Not how it may work out inside the party. 2/3 of members are for LEAVE and they will decide.
    Any evidence for that? Scientific BPC member surveys show a majority of Tory voters (not members) for Remain as shown in a thread yesterday.

    Besides as a member I will be voting Leave I expect but in a leadership election I will be voting for the best candidate who can win a general election and look after taxes and spending appropriately ... not based on Leave/Remain which will be dead and buried by then. You mistakenly assume that for all Tory members Leave/Remain is the critical, perhaps only issue which is not just false but absurd.
  • Options

    HYUFD said:

    Sean_F said:

    Mr. F, accepting the lack of choice, Cameron's still mishandled it.

    It seems likely we'll have a recession at some point between now and 2020. If Leave win, this will be blamed on Leave. Indeed, any difficulty that arises will be blamed on Leave.
    If Remain win, then Leave supporters will say " told you so", every time the EU does something we don't like. UKIP will keep chipping away at Conservative support. Some Conservatives who reluctantly voted Remain will feel like Labour supporters who reluctantly backed Tony Blair over Iraq.
    Agreed. One way REMAIN could lower the problems inside the Conservative party is if LEAVErs take over many of the key roles starting with the PM. But since Cameron and Osborne no longer care for the party I cannot see sense prevailing.
    If Remain win then we will have a Remain PM it is as simple as that. If Leave want a Leave backing PM they need to win the referendum
    Not how it may work out inside the party. 2/3 of members are for LEAVE and they will decide.
    Evidence for that statement please.
    Many ConHome surveys. Have you missed them?
  • Options
    VapidBilgeVapidBilge Posts: 412

    Blue_rog said:

    rcs1000 said:

    I'm losing track, are Leavers claiming that Britain doesn't have a veto because...

    So presumably the logic of each and every remainer must be the same as that of John McDonnell and Michael Heseltine at the same time because there must be only one remain groupthink? Or perhaps you only prescribe such a ludicrous standard for leavers.
    I ask simply for an acknowledgement from Leavers that Penny Mordaunt lied. The absurd contortions offered to suggest that she spoke to some form of deeper truth merely indicate the extreme silliness of so many Leavers.
    Suddenly to REMAIN a junior minister's words matter more than the head of the UK govt.....
    Q: Will the British people have a veto on Turkey joining?
    A: Highly unlikely so that is a No (the french people will have).
    Q: Is it Cameron's policy and the Govt's stated policy, that Turkey should join at earliest possible time and that by implication the Govt would not exercise a veto?
    A: Yes.
    Q: Did Cameron sign up to a statement 9 weeks ago that the accession arrangements for Turkey becoming an EU member should be accelerated?
    A: Yes.
    Q: Should we believe what Cameron and the Government tells us?
    A: REMAIN seem to say yes if it suits them and no if it does not suit them.....
    I'm a Leaver (as is Richard Tyndall), and we will both say that there is no realistic possibility than Turkey will join the EU given: (a) the French requirement to have a referendum, (b) Greece and Cyprus, and (c) that Turkey will not meet any of the accession criteria.
    And this is why leave will lose. The honesty of your answer and also it's accuracy blows Penny Mordaunt out of the water and again shows how leave are in chaos, but that was to be expected when there are so many competing visions within leave, thereby diluting the credibility of the proposition to leave the EU
    That's why Merrkel is doing under the table deals to give de facto membership
    Whatever Merkel is trying to do and what Turkey may or may not agree to is not membership of the EU - Turkey's membership is years away if ever.Today's project fear by leave has singularly failed and been shown to have no creditability
    Credibility? Is that the same as the official UK government forecast of 20,000 more people from Poland etc countries that turned into >1 million? You seem to trust the UK Government on an issue that they have spectacularly failed.
    Ah, yes, but that's Remain truthiness for you.
  • Options
    Blue_rogBlue_rog Posts: 2,019

    MP_SE said:

    chestnut said:

    Listening to today's controversy re Turkey's succession to the EU and up to 12 million Turks arriving in the UK, leave have again made the mistake of not understanding their brief and Penny Mordaunt's denial of the UK's veto is beyond belief, particularly as is was on Marr, and is now the theme of the day, with everyone from the PM down affirming that not only does the UK have a veto but so does everyone else including Greece. Also video out today of Boris extolling the virtue of Turkey joining the EU, even though leave are making such a big issue of it. I believe the campaign has already been won by remain due to leave's utter incompetence and inability to have a believable alternative outside the EU. Less than 14 days to the postal votes going in and I cannot see anything on the horizon that is a game changer for leave.

    If the PM says he wants Turkey to join quickly, he has effectively given up his veto. It is arguable that "my word is my bond" applies!

    It is the same as if a PM said he could not envisage campaigning to leave some group and then started negotiations to get better terms for staying in. In such circumstances the others would give very little ground to the PM as his negotiating position had been fatally undermined. Ring a bell?
    It is not going to happen in years and even then there is a 7 year transition period. Furthermore David Cameron will have retired long before it is even an issue. Leave have today lost the Turkey argument
    Taking wishful thinking to a new level.

    Which version of Remain are you offering up? Cameron's? Corbyn's? Juncker's?

    I believe the UK is better at the table in an EU that is facing enormous change and that quite simply leave have failed to make any case to justify the economic and security risks that a leap in the dark would involve.
    The EU is facing enormous problems, mainly brought about as a result of the eurozone. You mention having a seat at the top table. The UK is excluded from Eurogroup meetings as they have not adopted the Euro...
    Last time I looked the EU comprised 28 Countries and that we are one of the 28, therefore that is a seat at the top table as far as I am concerned
    Do we have a seat at the ECB? No.
    Do we have a seat at the WTO? No.

    We are caught in no-mans land without any seat.
    That suggests we should join the Euro
  • Options
    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,397
    Half a dozen of us canvassing Corbyn heartland (St George's Ward Islington) for Remain this morning. About 75% Remain, 20% Leave, 5% unsure. Main points of interest were that interest is very high - at General Election levels, people anxiously checking the register, where they'll be on the day, etc., and there are almost no "don't knows". Lots of Remain posters but the Leave people were very definite too.
  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sean_F said:

    Mr. F, accepting the lack of choice, Cameron's still mishandled it.

    It seems likely we'll have a recession at some point between now and 2020. If Leave win, this will be blamed on Leave. Indeed, any difficulty that arises will be blamed on Leave.
    If Remain win, then Leave supporters will say " told you so", every time the EU does something we don't like. UKIP will keep chipping away at Conservative support. Some Conservatives who reluctantly voted Remain will feel like Labour supporters who reluctantly backed Tony Blair over Iraq.
    Agreed. One way REMAIN could lower the problems inside the Conservative party is if LEAVErs take over many of the key roles starting with the PM. But since Cameron and Osborne no longer care for the party I cannot see sense prevailing.
    If Remain win then we will have a Remain PM it is as simple as that. If Leave want a Leave backing PM they need to win the referendum
    Not how it may work out inside the party. 2/3 of members are for LEAVE and they will decide.
    It is the MPs who will actually decide who the final 2 are, if Remain win a Leave candidate may not be put to the members. It could be Osborne v a sceptical Remainer like Hammond or May
    There are 140+ MPs openly out for LEAVE. More than enough to get one of the two slots for members. There are another group of REMAINers who are against Osborne and want him out, some through ambition and others because they want to retain their seat at the GE and know Osborne is toxic.
    So what? You think those only care about Leaving? An MP like Gove is more likely to back a serious cabinet contender like May or Osborne than he is a flake like Boris.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 118,062

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sean_F said:

    Mr. F, accepting the lack of choice, Cameron's still mishandled it.

    It seems likely we'll have a recession at some point between now and 2020. If Leave win, this will be blamed on Leave. Indeed, any difficulty that arises will be blamed on Leave.
    If Remain win, then Leave supporters will say " told you so", every time the EU does something we don't like. UKIP will keep chipping away at Conservative support. Some Conservatives who reluctantly voted Remain will feel like Labour supporters who reluctantly backed Tony Blair over Iraq.
    Agreed. One way REMAIN could lower the problems inside the Conservative party is if LEAVErs take over many of the key roles starting with the PM. But since Cameron and Osborne no longer care for the party I cannot see sense prevailing.
    If Remain win then we will have a Remain PM it is as simple as that. If Leave want a Leave backing PM they need to win the referendum
    Not how it may work out inside the party. 2/3 of members are for LEAVE and they will decide.
    It is the MPs who will actually decide who the final 2 are, if Remain win a Leave candidate may not be put to the members. It could be Osborne v a sceptical Remainer like Hammond or May
    There are 140+ MPs openly out for LEAVE. More than enough to get one of the two slots for members. There are another group of REMAINers who are against Osborne and want him out, some through ambition and others because they want to retain their seat at the GE and know Osborne is toxic.
    It is quite possible many of those Leave MPs will back Hammond or May, a few like Gove may even back Osborne. Boris may end up in third place like Portillo and knocked out
  • Options
    HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098


    I don’t believe a word Cameron says.

    Nor do I, Mr. C., and why should we since what he says now is a direct contradiction of what he said a year or two back. Then he said the UK could thrive outside the EU now he says leaving would mean armageddon. How can anyone trust such a man?
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 118,062
    Scott_P said:

    HYUFD said:

    if Remain win a Leave candidate may not be put to the members. It could be Osborne v a sceptical Remainer like Hammond or May

    Boris is doing his utmost to keep himself off the ballot
    Or at least not to win the ballot
  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Blue_rog said:

    Last time I looked the EU comprised 28 Countries and that we are one of the 28, therefore that is a seat at the top table as far as I am concerned

    Do we have a seat at the ECB? No.
    Do we have a seat at the WTO? No.

    We are caught in no-mans land without any seat.
    That suggests we should join the Euro
    Or Leave.

    Is being a member of the Euro workable with a seat at the top table? No and yes.
    Is being a member of the EU outside the Eurozone workable with a seat at the top table? Yes and No.
    Is being an independent nation workable with a seat at the top table? Yes and yes.
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @murdo_fraser: Support for #indyref2 falls - and more Scots support Trident than oppose: https://t.co/sakiD6FBNC The wheels are coming off the SNP wagon

    ...but, but, but Wings says his numbers are up !
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    as you can't be bothered

    Your most accurate post to date.
  • Options
    ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133

    HYUFD said:

    Sean_F said:

    Mr. F, accepting the lack of choice, Cameron's still mishandled it.

    It seems likely we'll have a recession at some point between now and 2020. If Leave win, this will be blamed on Leave. Indeed, any difficulty that arises will be blamed on Leave.
    If Remain win, then Leave supporters will say " told you so", every time the EU does something we don't like. UKIP will keep chipping away at Conservative support. Some Conservatives who reluctantly voted Remain will feel like Labour supporters who reluctantly backed Tony Blair over Iraq.
    Agreed. One way REMAIN could lower the problems inside the Conservative party is if LEAVErs take over many of the key roles starting with the PM. But since Cameron and Osborne no longer care for the party I cannot see sense prevailing.
    If Remain win then we will have a Remain PM it is as simple as that. If Leave want a Leave backing PM they need to win the referendum
    Not how it may work out inside the party. 2/3 of members are for LEAVE and they will decide.
    Any evidence for that? Scientific BPC member surveys show a majority of Tory voters (not members) for Remain as shown in a thread yesterday.
    Yes, but that's people currently giving a Tory VI, which by definition excludes those who Cameron has pissed off with his behaviour on this issue.
  • Options
    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822

    Half a dozen of us canvassing Corbyn heartland (St George's Ward Islington) for Remain this morning. About 75% Remain, 20% Leave, 5% unsure. Main points of interest were that interest is very high - at General Election levels, people anxiously checking the register, where they'll be on the day, etc., and there are almost no "don't knows". Lots of Remain posters but the Leave people were very definite too.

    20% Leave in Islington? Golly.
  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    HYUFD said:

    Sean_F said:

    Mr. F, accepting the lack of choice, Cameron's still mishandled it.

    It seems likely we'll have a recession at some point between now and 2020. If Leave win, this will be blamed on Leave. Indeed, any difficulty that arises will be blamed on Leave.
    If Remain win, then Leave supporters will say " told you so", every time the EU does something we don't like. UKIP will keep chipping away at Conservative support. Some Conservatives who reluctantly voted Remain will feel like Labour supporters who reluctantly backed Tony Blair over Iraq.
    Agreed. One way REMAIN could lower the problems inside the Conservative party is if LEAVErs take over many of the key roles starting with the PM. But since Cameron and Osborne no longer care for the party I cannot see sense prevailing.
    If Remain win then we will have a Remain PM it is as simple as that. If Leave want a Leave backing PM they need to win the referendum
    Not how it may work out inside the party. 2/3 of members are for LEAVE and they will decide.
    Evidence for that statement please.
    Many ConHome surveys. Have you missed them?
    So no evidence. ConHome surveys are surveys of ContinuityIDS members, not party members.
  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    HYUFD said:

    Sean_F said:

    Mr. F, accepting the lack of choice, Cameron's still mishandled it.

    It seems likely we'll have a recession at some point between now and 2020. If Leave win, this will be blamed on Leave. Indeed, any difficulty that arises will be blamed on Leave.
    If Remain win, then Leave supporters will say " told you so", every time the EU does something we don't like. UKIP will keep chipping away at Conservative support. Some Conservatives who reluctantly voted Remain will feel like Labour supporters who reluctantly backed Tony Blair over Iraq.
    Agreed. One way REMAIN could lower the problems inside the Conservative party is if LEAVErs take over many of the key roles starting with the PM. But since Cameron and Osborne no longer care for the party I cannot see sense prevailing.
    If Remain win then we will have a Remain PM it is as simple as that. If Leave want a Leave backing PM they need to win the referendum
    Not how it may work out inside the party. 2/3 of members are for LEAVE and they will decide.
    Any evidence for that? Scientific BPC member surveys show a majority of Tory voters (not members) for Remain as shown in a thread yesterday.
    Yes, but that's people currently giving a Tory VI, which by definition excludes those who Cameron has pissed off with his behaviour on this issue.
    No it doesn't. There will be many Cameron has pissed off that will still intend to vote Tory anyway.
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,491
    edited May 2016
    Scott_P said:

    @murdo_fraser: Support for #indyref2 falls - and more Scots support Trident than oppose: https://t.co/sakiD6FBNC The wheels are coming off the SNP wagon

    ...but, but, but Wings says his numbers are up !

    Quoting more losers, Murdo upset at football result so comes up with a few lies = SNPBAD............Ha Ha Ha

    Wheels really shaky when more of electorate vote for you than the 3 next opposition parties combined. Methinks you and Murdo are two cheeks of the same arse.
  • Options
    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822


    I don’t believe a word Cameron says.

    Nor do I, Mr. C., and why should we since what he says now is a direct contradiction of what he said a year or two back. Then he said the UK could thrive outside the EU now he says leaving would mean armageddon. How can anyone trust such a man?
    Me neither. I didn't vote for Tony Mk II. Yet, I've got it.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 118,062

    HYUFD said:

    Sean_F said:

    Mr. F, accepting the lack of choice, Cameron's still mishandled it.

    It seems likely we'll have a recession at some point between now and 2020. If Leave win, this will be blamed on Leave. Indeed, any difficulty that arises will be blamed on Leave.
    If Remain win, then Leave supporters will say " told you so", every time the EU does something we don't like. UKIP will keep chipping away at Conservative support. Some Conservatives who reluctantly voted Remain will feel like Labour supporters who reluctantly backed Tony Blair over Iraq.
    Agreed. One way REMAIN could lower the problems inside the Conservative party is if LEAVErs take over many of the key roles starting with the PM. But since Cameron and Osborne no longer care for the party I cannot see sense prevailing.
    If Remain win then we will have a Remain PM it is as simple as that. If Leave want a Leave backing PM they need to win the referendum
    Not how it may work out inside the party. 2/3 of members are for LEAVE and they will decide.
    Evidence for that statement please.
    Many ConHome surveys. Have you missed them?
    So no evidence. ConHome surveys are surveys of ContinuityIDS members, not party members.
    Conhome did correctly predict the 2005 leadership election almost exactly, it is normally pretty accurate but as you say Tory members are more rightwing than Tory voters, especially since some of the latter in 2015 have moved to UKIP
  • Options
    ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    Blue_rog said:

    MP_SE said:

    chestnut said:


    If the PM says he wants Turkey to join quickly, he has effectively given up his veto. It is arguable that "my word is my bond" applies!

    It is the same as if a PM said he could not envisage campaigning to leave some group and then started negotiations to get better terms for staying in. In such circumstances the others would give very little ground to the PM as his negotiating position had been fatally undermined. Ring a bell?

    It is not going to happen in years and even then there is a 7 year transition period. Furthermore David Cameron will have retired long before it is even an issue. Leave have today lost the Turkey argument
    Taking wishful thinking to a new level.

    Which version of Remain are you offering up? Cameron's? Corbyn's? Juncker's?

    I believe the UK is better at the table in an EU that is facing enormous change and that quite simply leave have failed to make any case to justify the economic and security risks that a leap in the dark would involve.
    The EU is facing enormous problems, mainly brought about as a result of the eurozone. You mention having a seat at the top table. The UK is excluded from Eurogroup meetings as they have not adopted the Euro...
    Last time I looked the EU comprised 28 Countries and that we are one of the 28, therefore that is a seat at the top table as far as I am concerned
    Do we have a seat at the ECB? No.
    Do we have a seat at the WTO? No.

    We are caught in no-mans land without any seat.
    That suggests we should join the Euro
    If we stay in, we should. Sniping from the sidelines about the EU project that has just been endorsed in a referendum will not go down well in Brussels and EU national capitals.
  • Options
    VapidBilgeVapidBilge Posts: 412
    Scott_P said:

    as you can't be bothered

    Your most accurate post to date.
    You seem to think that it's just you and me on this forum. There are others reading this thread and it would be nice if you replied with something other than petty retorts.

    But then, judging by your re-posts, when did you ever care about wasting other people's time?
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    VapidBilgeVapidBilge Posts: 412

    Half a dozen of us canvassing Corbyn heartland (St George's Ward Islington) for Remain this morning. About 75% Remain, 20% Leave, 5% unsure. Main points of interest were that interest is very high - at General Election levels, people anxiously checking the register, where they'll be on the day, etc., and there are almost no "don't knows". Lots of Remain posters but the Leave people were very definite too.

    20% Leave in Islington? Golly.
    Do you think high or low?
  • Options
    MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792

    Half a dozen of us canvassing Corbyn heartland (St George's Ward Islington) for Remain this morning. About 75% Remain, 20% Leave, 5% unsure. Main points of interest were that interest is very high - at General Election levels, people anxiously checking the register, where they'll be on the day, etc., and there are almost no "don't knows". Lots of Remain posters but the Leave people were very definite too.

    Sweetly reminiscent of your wonderful Broxtowe GE canvassing reports.
  • Options
    ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133

    HYUFD said:

    Sean_F said:

    Mr. F, accepting the lack of choice, Cameron's still mishandled it.

    It seems likely we'll have a recession at some point between now and 2020. If Leave win, this will be blamed on Leave. Indeed, any difficulty that arises will be blamed on Leave.
    If Remain win, then Leave supporters will say " told you so", every time the EU does something we don't like. UKIP will keep chipping away at Conservative support. Some Conservatives who reluctantly voted Remain will feel like Labour supporters who reluctantly backed Tony Blair over Iraq.
    Agreed. One way REMAIN could lower the problems inside the Conservative party is if LEAVErs take over many of the key roles starting with the PM. But since Cameron and Osborne no longer care for the party I cannot see sense prevailing.
    If Remain win then we will have a Remain PM it is as simple as that. If Leave want a Leave backing PM they need to win the referendum
    Not how it may work out inside the party. 2/3 of members are for LEAVE and they will decide.
    Any evidence for that? Scientific BPC member surveys show a majority of Tory voters (not members) for Remain as shown in a thread yesterday.
    Yes, but that's people currently giving a Tory VI, which by definition excludes those who Cameron has pissed off with his behaviour on this issue.
    No it doesn't. There will be many Cameron has pissed off that will still intend to vote Tory anyway.
    Many will be signalling their displeasure by reporting a different VI.
  • Options
    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822

    Half a dozen of us canvassing Corbyn heartland (St George's Ward Islington) for Remain this morning. About 75% Remain, 20% Leave, 5% unsure. Main points of interest were that interest is very high - at General Election levels, people anxiously checking the register, where they'll be on the day, etc., and there are almost no "don't knows". Lots of Remain posters but the Leave people were very definite too.

    20% Leave in Islington? Golly.
    Do you think high or low?
    Higher than I expected, @anothernick said he'd canvassed a similar area and 100 doorknocks were all Remain...
  • Options
    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,397

    Half a dozen of us canvassing Corbyn heartland (St George's Ward Islington) for Remain this morning. About 75% Remain, 20% Leave, 5% unsure. Main points of interest were that interest is very high - at General Election levels, people anxiously checking the register, where they'll be on the day, etc., and there are almost no "don't knows". Lots of Remain posters but the Leave people were very definite too.

    20% Leave in Islington? Golly.
    About what I'd have expected, really - there's a 16% Tory vote in the ward, of which say half might be for Leave, some left-wing anti-TTIP people and a few random variations. I'd guess that there's a 20% Remain vote in deepest Surrey...
  • Options
    midwintermidwinter Posts: 1,112

    HYUFD said:

    Sean_F said:

    Mr. F, accepting the lack of choice, Cameron's still mishandled it.

    It seems likely we'll have a recession at some point between now and 2020. If Leave win, this will be blamed on Leave. Indeed, any difficulty that arises will be blamed on Leave.
    If Remain win, then Leave supporters will say " told you so", every time the EU does something we don't like. UKIP will keep chipping away at Conservative support. Some Conservatives who reluctantly voted Remain will feel like Labour supporters who reluctantly backed Tony Blair over Iraq.
    Agreed. One way REMAIN could lower the problems inside the Conservative party is if LEAVErs take over many of the key roles starting with the PM. But since Cameron and Osborne no longer care for the party I cannot see sense prevailing.
    If Remain win then we will have a Remain PM it is as simple as that. If Leave want a Leave backing PM they need to win the referendum
    Not how it may work out inside the party. 2/3 of members are for LEAVE and they will decide.
    Any evidence for that? Scientific BPC member surveys show a majority of Tory voters (not members) for Remain as shown in a thread yesterday.
    Yes, but that's people currently giving a Tory VI, which by definition excludes those who Cameron has pissed off with his behaviour on this issue.
    No it doesn't. There will be many Cameron has pissed off that will still intend to vote Tory anyway.
    Many will be signalling their displeasure by reporting a different VI.
    Not that many judging by recent polls.
  • Options
    TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    Thanks to @Scott_P this morning for pointing out how split the tory party is,thanks scotty,your doing a great job.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 118,062
    ABC news poll has Trump taking a narrow lead over Clinton with Registered voters as her battle with Sanders continues, though Sanders has a net positive rating the other 2 a net negative

    Registered voters
    Trump 46 Clinton 44

    All voters
    Clinton 48 Trump 42

    Net favourability Clinton -16, Trump -17, Sanders +8

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/poll-election-2016-shapes-up-as-a-contest-of-negatives/2016/05/21/8d4ccfd6-1ed3-11e6-b6e0-c53b7ef63b45_story.html?wpisrc=al_alert-COMBO-national+politics+localpolitics
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 59,292

    Half a dozen of us canvassing Corbyn heartland (St George's Ward Islington) for Remain this morning. About 75% Remain, 20% Leave, 5% unsure. Main points of interest were that interest is very high - at General Election levels, people anxiously checking the register, where they'll be on the day, etc., and there are almost no "don't knows". Lots of Remain posters but the Leave people were very definite too.

    Sweetly reminiscent of your wonderful Broxtowe GE canvassing reports.
    I have increased my bets on Leave following this latest front line report :smiley:
  • Options
    nunununu Posts: 6,024

    Half a dozen of us canvassing Corbyn heartland (St George's Ward Islington) for Remain this morning. About 75% Remain, 20% Leave, 5% unsure. Main points of interest were that interest is very high - at General Election levels, people anxiously checking the register, where they'll be on the day, etc., and there are almost no "don't knows". Lots of Remain posters but the Leave people were very definite too.

    20% Leave in Islington? Golly.
    About what I'd have expected, really - there's a 16% Tory vote in the ward, of which say half might be for Leave, some left-wing anti-TTIP people and a few random variations. I'd guess that there's a 20% Remain vote in deepest Surrey...
    Probably much higher than 20% remain in Surrey- the E.U favours the wealthy.
    If Nick is saying Leave is getting 20% in Islington it's probably more like 40% for leave.

    Share this link as far and wide as you can! On facebook etc.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k5zKbV1HXdU
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    VapidBilgeVapidBilge Posts: 412

    Half a dozen of us canvassing Corbyn heartland (St George's Ward Islington) for Remain this morning. About 75% Remain, 20% Leave, 5% unsure. Main points of interest were that interest is very high - at General Election levels, people anxiously checking the register, where they'll be on the day, etc., and there are almost no "don't knows". Lots of Remain posters but the Leave people were very definite too.

    20% Leave in Islington? Golly.
    Do you think high or low?
    Higher than I expected, @anothernick said he'd canvassed a similar area and 100 doorknocks were all Remain...
    I don't know what to expect. Those left behind in an area of high immigration resent their community has changed, but keep quiet about it. Those who have moved out are quite vocal about it. Safer to admit it farther out.

    Joker in the pack: a lot of EU citizens are registered to vote in EU and local elections, but are not eligible to vote in the referendum.
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    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822

    HYUFD said:

    Sean_F said:

    Mr. F, accepting the lack of choice, Cameron's still mishandled it.

    It seems likely we'll have a recession at some point between now and 2020. If Leave win, this will be blamed on Leave. Indeed, any difficulty that arises will be blamed on Leave.
    If Remain win, then Leave supporters will say " told you so", every time the EU does something we don't like. UKIP will keep chipping away at Conservative support. Some Conservatives who reluctantly voted Remain will feel like Labour supporters who reluctantly backed Tony Blair over Iraq.
    Agreed. One way REMAIN could lower the problems inside the Conservative party is if LEAVErs take over many of the key roles starting with the PM. But since Cameron and Osborne no longer care for the party I cannot see sense prevailing.
    If Remain win then we will have a Remain PM it is as simple as that. If Leave want a Leave backing PM they need to win the referendum
    Not how it may work out inside the party. 2/3 of members are for LEAVE and they will decide.
    Any evidence for that? Scientific BPC member surveys show a majority of Tory voters (not members) for Remain as shown in a thread yesterday.
    Yes, but that's people currently giving a Tory VI, which by definition excludes those who Cameron has pissed off with his behaviour on this issue.
    No it doesn't. There will be many Cameron has pissed off that will still intend to vote Tory anyway.
    Many will be signalling their displeasure by reporting a different VI.
    I'm very pissed off and not changing my VI - yet.
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    VapidBilgeVapidBilge Posts: 412
    nunu said:

    Half a dozen of us canvassing Corbyn heartland (St George's Ward Islington) for Remain this morning. About 75% Remain, 20% Leave, 5% unsure. Main points of interest were that interest is very high - at General Election levels, people anxiously checking the register, where they'll be on the day, etc., and there are almost no "don't knows". Lots of Remain posters but the Leave people were very definite too.

    20% Leave in Islington? Golly.
    About what I'd have expected, really - there's a 16% Tory vote in the ward, of which say half might be for Leave, some left-wing anti-TTIP people and a few random variations. I'd guess that there's a 20% Remain vote in deepest Surrey...
    Probably much higher than 20% remain in Surrey- the E.U favours the wealthy.
    If Nick is saying Leave is getting 20% in Islington it's probably more like 40% for leave.

    Share this link as far and wide as you can! On facebook etc.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k5zKbV1HXdU
    That ruck in the Turkish parliament is quite something, isn't it? Was it the Kurdish MPs complaining about their rights being taken away?

    Coming soon!
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    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822

    Half a dozen of us canvassing Corbyn heartland (St George's Ward Islington) for Remain this morning. About 75% Remain, 20% Leave, 5% unsure. Main points of interest were that interest is very high - at General Election levels, people anxiously checking the register, where they'll be on the day, etc., and there are almost no "don't knows". Lots of Remain posters but the Leave people were very definite too.

    20% Leave in Islington? Golly.
    Do you think high or low?
    Higher than I expected, @anothernick said he'd canvassed a similar area and 100 doorknocks were all Remain...
    I don't know what to expect. Those left behind in an area of high immigration resent their community has changed, but keep quiet about it. Those who have moved out are quite vocal about it. Safer to admit it farther out.

    Joker in the pack: a lot of EU citizens are registered to vote in EU and local elections, but are not eligible to vote in the referendum.
    It's a real buggers muddle - I've no idea what's going on.
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    HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098


    I don’t believe a word Cameron says.

    Nor do I, Mr. C., and why should we since what he says now is a direct contradiction of what he said a year or two back. Then he said the UK could thrive outside the EU now he says leaving would mean armageddon. How can anyone trust such a man?
    Me neither. I didn't vote for Tony Mk II. Yet, I've got it.


    I don’t believe a word Cameron says.

    Nor do I, Mr. C., and why should we since what he says now is a direct contradiction of what he said a year or two back. Then he said the UK could thrive outside the EU now he says leaving would mean armageddon. How can anyone trust such a man?
    Me neither. I didn't vote for Tony Mk II. Yet, I've got it.
    Alas, you did. Miss P. , but maybe you were not paying attention: Cameron said he was the "True heir to Blair". No fault on your behalf I am sure because Cameron says so many things that are mutually contradictory that working out what he actually thinks let alone will do, given the chance, cannot be more than a guessing game.
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,138
    Penny Mordaunt wasn't lying about a UK veto on Turkish EU membership. It's worse than that. She didn't know. What a shockingly poor government this is.
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,138


    I don’t believe a word Cameron says.

    Nor do I, Mr. C., and why should we since what he says now is a direct contradiction of what he said a year or two back. Then he said the UK could thrive outside the EU now he says leaving would mean armageddon. How can anyone trust such a man?
    Me neither. I didn't vote for Tony Mk II. Yet, I've got it.

    Aren't you a very wet Tory, though?

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    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    Half a dozen of us canvassing Corbyn heartland (St George's Ward Islington) for Remain this morning. About 75% Remain, 20% Leave, 5% unsure. Main points of interest were that interest is very high - at General Election levels, people anxiously checking the register, where they'll be on the day, etc., and there are almost no "don't knows". Lots of Remain posters but the Leave people were very definite too.

    20% Leave in Islington? Golly.
    About what I'd have expected, really - there's a 16% Tory vote in the ward, of which say half might be for Leave, some left-wing anti-TTIP people and a few random variations. I'd guess that there's a 20% Remain vote in deepest Surrey...
    There is much more than 20% Remain in deepest Surrey. More like 45%. Lots of AB voters.
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,472

    Penny Mordaunt wasn't lying about a UK veto on Turkish EU membership. It's worse than that. She didn't know. What a shockingly poor government this is.

    I'll see your Penny Mordaunt and raise you Hattie Hateperson!
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,138

    Half a dozen of us canvassing Corbyn heartland (St George's Ward Islington) for Remain this morning. About 75% Remain, 20% Leave, 5% unsure. Main points of interest were that interest is very high - at General Election levels, people anxiously checking the register, where they'll be on the day, etc., and there are almost no "don't knows". Lots of Remain posters but the Leave people were very definite too.

    Is St George's ward Tufnell Park down to Holloway Road? Very mixed, if so.

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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    nunu said:

    Half a dozen of us canvassing Corbyn heartland (St George's Ward Islington) for Remain this morning. About 75% Remain, 20% Leave, 5% unsure. Main points of interest were that interest is very high - at General Election levels, people anxiously checking the register, where they'll be on the day, etc., and there are almost no "don't knows". Lots of Remain posters but the Leave people were very definite too.

    20% Leave in Islington? Golly.
    About what I'd have expected, really - there's a 16% Tory vote in the ward, of which say half might be for Leave, some left-wing anti-TTIP people and a few random variations. I'd guess that there's a 20% Remain vote in deepest Surrey...
    Probably much higher than 20% remain in Surrey- the E.U favours the wealthy.
    If Nick is saying Leave is getting 20% in Islington it's probably more like 40% for leave.

    Share this link as far and wide as you can! On facebook etc.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k5zKbV1HXdU
    That ruck in the Turkish parliament is quite something, isn't it? Was it the Kurdish MPs complaining about their rights being taken away?

    Coming soon!
    The fact that Kurdish MPs rights are infringed is itself a bar to Turkish membership of the EU.

    So: Not coming here soon!
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    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822


    I don’t believe a word Cameron says.

    Nor do I, Mr. C., and why should we since what he says now is a direct contradiction of what he said a year or two back. Then he said the UK could thrive outside the EU now he says leaving would mean armageddon. How can anyone trust such a man?
    Me neither. I didn't vote for Tony Mk II. Yet, I've got it.

    Aren't you a very wet Tory, though?

    Yes, and I rejected Blair and what he represented - I've just got him again wearing a blue tie instead. My principles haven't changed.
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    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    edited May 2016



    I'm a Leaver (as is Richard Tyndall), and we will both say that there is no realistic possibility than Turkey will join the EU given: (a) the French requirement to have a referendum, (b) Greece and Cyprus, and (c) that Turkey will not meet any of the accession criteria.

    And this is why leave will lose. The honesty of your answer and also it's accuracy blows Penny Mordaunt out of the water and again shows how leave are in chaos, but that was to be expected when there are so many competing visions within leave, thereby diluting the credibility of the proposition to leave the EU

    Depends how you define the question.

    Do we (the British electorate who are voting next month) have a veto? No we do not.
    Does the British government with a stated policy of accepting Turkey as soon as possible have a veto? Yes.

    Is this the last chance we (as the British electorate) have to stop Turkish membership? Almost certainly yes.

    With respect that is just nonsense. If and when Turkey are in a position to meet membership rules not only David Cameron, but most of today's politicians will have left office, and the government of the day will have the right to veto or otherwise Turkey's membersghip

    --------------------------------

    Good post !
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