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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The next recession
Trying to predict the next recession has the danger making you sound like The Ancient Mariner but William Hill have a market up if the UK is going to have recession by the end of 2017 if you want to bet on the timing of it. I’m not an economist, so this piece should be viewed in that spirit.
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Yes the government worked better as a coalition and are clearly feeling the loss of the quad - you might have had the wit to realize the need to replace it with "critical friends" within government- there's nothing wrong with a good row behind closed doors.
No but they're not steamrollering things through- the awkward squad on the back benches are (for once) providing a useful correction.
Worth remembering though that a recession has a very technical definition, and it may feel like we are in a recession without being in one, and vice versa.
Also worth checking the terms of the bet, in 2012 we had a brief two quarter recession on the initial figures, but they were revised up later by the ONS to be only flat growth rather than negative - much to the annoyance of a certain Mr Balls.
Also consider that in the event of a Brexit vote the price will probably come in, even though we won't be leaving the EU before the end of 2017.
Believe me, I know.
REMAIN 58% - Leave 42%. No change.
TA
There should be an option there to revert to the previous operating system.
http://windows.microsoft.com/en-us/windows-10/going-back-to-windows-7-or-windows-81
PM me if you get stuck, I do this for a living (and it's rather busy now, thanks Microsoft!)
If this is the result (and it is what I expect), after 950 years of independent history, the takeover by the Continent will be final. There will be ever closer union, a common currency enforced on all EU members and a pan-European army which may eventually force a showdown with Russia - the skirmishes in the Donbass are a mere foretaste.
For the average ethnic Briton, what was the point in refusing the peace offer from the leader of the 3rd Reich in 1940 from an economic perspective? What Churchill's belligerence did do was preserve Britain's independence from domination by a European autocrat, and that is the real question facing the country on 23/6/16.
Even if wasn't clear in 1975, the EU is not a mere economic community/free trade area. but an attempt to create a single European state, with its components as mere subservient regions/provinces.
Voting to revert to some degree independence will cause world war Three? You’re never heard of NATO? Really? Sweden will invade Denmark? Oh? You didn’t actually say? I suspect you did. An economic apocalypse is guaranteed even if we survive a thermonuclear holocaust? You definitely said that Remain are the biggest culprits but only because they are being more professional about their stupidity.
When it comes to the next GE, what can they say about a Jezza government? Economic ruin? Whatever? Taken over by left wing fanatics? You would say that, wouldn’t you? In fact, you’ve already said worse about us merely leaving a bureaucratic, jumped up, trading bloc.
They’re managing to bring politics into disrepute, a feat I thought impossible.
24 hours to save the pound? 24 hours to save the NHS? That was daft enough, but now you’ve excelled. Now you’ve jumped the shark good and proper Why would anyone believe a word from you anymore?
Jezza will ruin us all? Pull the other one, Mr Osborne? Bureaucratic state control? Is that all? No Zombie apocalypse? That’s alright then.
Jezza may be a loon, but who’s really the unhinged one here?
Thanks for your legacy Dave ... PM Jeremy.
However Chez W is changing over to Chrome completely. Her indoors has used the brilliant ASUS Flip for several months and I'm looking to change to Chrome Pixel shortly.
Joe Root was at the edge but joining in. He made a point of talking to Vince but Vince had not yet got the wag game with his girl staying with him. All the other wags had their own table. This was very definitely a male bonding session.
It's not often I agree with Portillo but he's bang to right, in this instance.
At this week’s press conference, Ed Balls came out with a remarkable statement. ‘Say what you like about George Osborne, at least he’s putting the country’s interests before his own on this issue, in contrast to some of his rivals.’ Given the personal history between the two men – Balls once came within a hair’s breadth of marching around the Dispatch Box and punching Osborne during a furious clash over the Libor rate-rigging scandal – it was a staggeringly generous intervention.
But it also perfectly encapsulates Team Osborne’s strategy. To paint George Osborne as the man who sees tough choices, confronts them head on and puts the country first, while painting Boris Johnson as the man who sees tough choices, tells a humorous anecdote about them in Latin, then puts Boris Johnson first
You ....
Jezza couldn't become PM if he was facing Stewart Jackson as Conservative leader and the nation was facing a depression of biblical proportions.
It's more likely that TSE will get into the Ascot Royal Enclosure than Jezza will be kissing hands with Her Maj down at Buck House.
Now dear chap, go and have a nice lie down in a darkened room and in a few hours time let's hope you'll recovered your wits and a sense of proportion.
If anyone gets the desire to download a small program called Grammerly, or a dirivitive; don't! It will slow your machine to an almost standstill.
Look at the legislative programme. Hardly worthy of a village council at best. Cameron is going, and happy to concentrate only on his pet project - the EU.
Give it ten years and we won't need a parliament anyway. It will be based in Brussels.
The next recession, if we leave, will be blamed by some on our leaving (indeed, the BBC's business/economics editor Kamal Ahmed was leading enough to ask Carney if the latter could rule out a recession if we left [nobody ever claimed leaving the EU would mean the end of the business cycle]).
If we stay, then some will be grumpy (where's this prosperity we're meant to have) but it won't have much impact beyond further damaging the Conservatives.
They're fortunate they're facing Corbyn. A competent leader with a united Labour Party would be tearing chunks out of the blues.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/may/21/poor-outlook-toxic-labour-jon-cruddas-report-welfare-immigration
I wasn't sure about chrome but the little Flip has been a revelation for a product costing about £220. Mrs JackW is hugely impressed by it. She hasn't had any problems with it and the independent reviews have been very positive.
I note rcs1000 gave the pixel the thumbs up and OGH uses Chrome too.
If Remain win, then Leave supporters will say " told you so", every time the EU does something we don't like. UKIP will keep chipping away at Conservative support. Some Conservatives who reluctantly voted Remain will feel like Labour supporters who reluctantly backed Tony Blair over Iraq.
Have you just returned from a rave in Luton last night Sean ?!? ....
Not quite sure what I'll do when 7 reaches the end of its lifespan.
Edited extra bit: Mr. F, quite agree. Although Farage is not helpful to UKIP in terms of broadening support, the general picture could still be very good for the purples.
Conservatives in a civil war, Labour led by a Marxist terrorist-sympathiser, Lib Dems reduced to almost nothing, and the EU on the agenda for years.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/austria-shooting-nenzing-gunman-kills-two-at-concert-before-turning-gun-on-himself-police-say-a7041896.html
Sounds "biker"-related, non-terrorist.
May shift a view votes rightwards I suppose, although the FPO candidate already seemed odds-on to win...
A sense of proportion? It's Cameron who is running his "Apres moi, le deluge" strategy.
Jezza has some support for his economic 'bash the bankers and the fat cats' view. It's only his terminally lunatic foreign polices that make him unelectable. He and McDonnell will soft-pedal these, possibly even deny them.
What can the Tories or even the Jacobites do? When you cry not only wolf, but a vampire, psychotic lupine beast, how do you expect to be believed in future?
A more viable Labour party might have presented a problem but Jezza and co effectively give the Tories a free pass in 2020 with the new Con leader able to clear the boards and continue in government to 2025. Essentially we'll have Conservative hegemony in UK government and the SNP holding sway in Scotland.
There seems to be a rather nasty bout of schizophrenia in Derry Street. While the Daily Mail is as expected pro brexit, the Mail on Sunday has morphed into fanatical remain shills.
It's like a rerun of 1992 but with Michael Foot with knobs on as LotO and the SNP as an ace in the hole for the Tories. The result will not be in doubt. The Conservative Mummy Returns.
22,000 surveyed
Brexit 43 to 40.5 ahead
Leave ahead on a knife edge by 45 to 44.5 with voters who say they are very likely to vote.
The new data, which comes from a long-term internet panel study led by some of Britain’s leading polling experts, are the first findings from a major study to be published later this month, which has been previewed by Channel 4 News.
Polling so far has fluctuated significantly, with neither side securing a convincing lead.
While white voters are split evenly, all ethnic minority groups are far more likely to back Remain. However, the data also suggests that turnout could be 20 to 25 per cent lower among ethnic minority voters. Voter registration is also lower
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/eu-referendum-outcome-on-a-knife-edge-according-to-new-data-from-british-election-survey-a7034751.html
The Hepi survey of 1,000 students found 76% would ban speakers who had views that offended them http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/survey-shows-up-snowflake-students-tkfjmzd73
It now seems more likely that Jezza will prevail through to 2020 and that prospect is like the Tories getting six numbers up on the Political Lotto.
I've been giving some consideration to when Cameron will go. I think there's a prospect that he might give his successor 12 months as PM through to May 2020 and thus allow the party to regroup and unify for the coming general election, where MP's in marginal seats and the party in general will be looking to the future rather than events of the past.
Godspeed Donald Trump...
With FPTP second place is like Crystal Palace not winning the FA Cup. In six months few will remember, less will care and I've already forgotten who lost yesterday ....
Assuming Remain win, what will UKIP offer? The referendum will settle the issue for at least a generation, possibly forever.
I think there's a massive gap in attitudes between young people who are students, and those who are not.
Which scare story is used today is it the plague of boils or the plague of frogs or the slaughter of first born children, or light armoured vehicles on Salisbury Plain with EU flags?
It just goes on and on and on. What next no fire bells? No smoke alarms? Car horns?
It's incredibly - and frighteningly puritanical. They're making the Loony Left 80s seem tolerant.
Also when you've got W7 or 8 back working, download a program called "GWX Control Panel" which stops the auto W10 updates from happening.
http://blog.ultimateoutsider.com/2015/08/using-gwx-stopper-to-permanently-remove.html
This last point goes for anyone who's fed up of W10 notifications and wants to stick with the operating system they have already.
A Tory Leaver becoming leader and PM but bound by a Remain vote is going to be an interesting bit of party management.
Miss Plato, didn't Stuart Rose say wages would rise if we left the EU? Now, magically, they'll fall.
Said it before, but I do wonder if this is the influence of the internet. Moderation, flagging 'inappropriate' posts, echo chambers and banning may have led some fools to think reality should mimic the online world.
Edited extra bit: that said, the generation between mine and the Boomers has the same problem...
How wrong I was.
The volume is up to 11 and I've gone deaf. IMO, the only thing that going to change hearts and minds now is something black-swannish. With c 30% undecided - no clear idea how many will be DNV, or are shy or sticking with nurse...
Polls schmolls. Digging into the various methodology changes/comparing results is interesting in a Cluedo way - I'm not relying on any of them.
http://www.lefigaro.fr/conjoncture/2016/05/21/20002-20160521ARTFIG00134-decouvrez-la-carte-des-penuries-de-carburants-dans-toute-la-france.php
Personally, I will not vote for the Conservatives again unless either the leader or the local candidate is a eurosceptic. We tried putting in a supposed reluctant pro-EUer last time, and he turned out to be a raving europhile that would tell any lie to support Brussels. No other Remainer is willing to call out those lies, showing that they are snakes in the grass as an entire class.
Anyone who believes it or the BES can hoover up free money. Leave are now up to 4.6 on Betfair.
A Leave vote gives the UK Government a mandate to negotiate a new trading arrangement with the European Union on the principles outlined during the campaign.
Apart from anything else, there's bound to be a scare or two for Remain in the final weeks which will offer some trading potential.
DYOR however.
In 2001, Labour got 50.7% of the vote and the Liberal Democrats 10.3%. A 61% vote for the left/centre-left. Tory+UKIP were on 38.2%.
In 2015, Labour got just 23.8%, Greens 3.2% and TUSC 0.5%. The LDs 6.2%. By contrast, the Conservatives got 47% and UKIP 19.1% - over 66% for the right/centre-right.
That's quite a serious swing to the Right over 14 years.
https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/734302367743680513
A good example in the ST today. Apparently London is going to lose all its euro trading if we Brexit. This being the same London that buys and sells more dollars every day than New York.