The reason we're ignoring it is because it doesn't fit the narrative.
No it's because it is so out of date.
The significance of it is not when it was done but its validating Yougovs methodology in their online polls by s phone poll usung the same methodology getting the same result.
Ie we should treat online polps as gold standard and phone polls as iffy remain shillfests.
I keep being told the WWC outside of London are enthusiastic Remainers. Perhaps Mrs Duffy bucks the trend.
You said there were "very few" WWC Remain voters outside of London. That is simply not true No-one has claimed that the WWC outside of London are all enthusiastic Remainers.
Meek's post concerning the 1-4 being value was put up before this Yougov revelation, it has changed my mind about where the fair price is slightly ^^; (1-4 -> 2-5 ^_~)
Yes, Alastair was underestimating the uncertainty IMO (even without YouGov's interesting intervention).
It's quite possible that 'Leave to win' and 'Remain to get 60% to 65%' are both good value, given that the information we do have is so contradictory. Or, in other words, that the market is over-confident that it will end up at around what (most of) the phone polls are currently telling us.
The reason we're ignoring it is because it doesn't fit the narrative.
No it's because it is so out of date.
The significance of it is not when it was done but its validating Yougovs methodology in their online polls by s phone poll usung the same methodology getting the same result.
Ie we should treat online polps as gold standard and phone polls as iffy remain shillfests.
and Yougov's latest online poll gave Remain a 4% lead so moving in the same direction as the phone polls.
Yougov's own leading lights can't agree on the subject so it's a bit of a stretch to now claim online polls are now gold standard.
Nobody knows for sure whether the phone or online polls are more accurate but I guess people will believe what they want to believe.
Its all out war for the pollsters. One or more of them might be finished, reputationally, after this.
Well, YouGov are saying Leave is winning at the moment, but then says: "we still believe Remain will prevail in the end."
Nonetheless it calls for a bit more than a disinterested shrug. This is a phone poll with LEAVE ahead. It's also a polling company putting their cullions on the line and saying Leavers are under sampled.
At the very least it has big betting implications.
Pollsters point to specific sampling factors for why they are right and everyone else is wrong, including age, social class and educational attainment.
The first thing to say is that those things are correlated: older people tend to have had less formal education, while social classes A and B have had more education than classes C, D, E. So if Stephan Shakespeare from YouGov criticises Matt SIngh and Peter Kellner for not being aware of the education determinant when the latter accuse others of not being aware of the social class determinant, who in turn stress the age determinant, they are all talking about factors that are correlated. So it probably isn't as straightforward as each of these camps make it out to be.
Secondly pollsters know all about the sampling and weighting on their own polls because they have grappled with them long and hard. They don't really know how other pollsters have gone about their sampling and weighting beyond the basic information in the tables. By focusing on one factor in the others' polls they are almost certainly missing the real differences.
On this, @SeanT and @Paul_Bedfordshire are right - the significance of the YouGov article is their claim that they have discovered the source of the online/phone discrepancy and that it is the online polls which are more right. If that is correct, it is dynamite, and much more significant than the headline figures of one particular poll.
The difficulty is that it's very hard to know how much weight to give to YouGov's claim.
On this, @SeanT and @Paul_Bedfordshire are right - the significance of the YouGov article is their claim that they have discovered the source of the online/phone discrepancy and that it is the online polls which are more right. If that is correct, it is dynamite, and much more significant than the headline figures of one particular poll.
The difficulty is that it's very hard to know how much weight to give to YouGov's claim.
Company A claims it's product is best shocker.
They may be right. They may be wrong. We'll find out in about 33 days time.
On this, @SeanT and @Paul_Bedfordshire are right - the significance of the YouGov article is their claim that they have discovered the source of the online/phone discrepancy and that it is the online polls which are more right. If that is correct, it is dynamite, and much more significant than the headline figures of one particular poll.
The difficulty is that it's very hard to know how much weight to give to YouGov's claim.
Company A claims it's product is best shocker.
They may be right. They may be wrong. We'll find out in about 33 days time.
Yes, although to be fair they do give some specific reasons why they think their product is better, and those reasons are not obviously self-seeking garbage.
But, yes, you are right. Who the hell knows? Perhaps the one thing we can say is that it is rather brave to bet at short odds on this.
On this, @SeanT and @Paul_Bedfordshire are right - the significance of the YouGov article is their claim that they have discovered the source of the online/phone discrepancy and that it is the online polls which are more right. If that is correct, it is dynamite, and much more significant than the headline figures of one particular poll.
The difficulty is that it's very hard to know how much weight to give to YouGov's claim.
Company A claims it's product is best shocker.
They may be right. They may be wrong. We'll find out in about 33 days time.
Yes, although to be fair they do give some specific reasons why they think their product is better, and those reasons are not obviously self-seeking garbage.
But, yes, you are right. Who the hell knows? Perhaps the one thing we can say is that it is rather brave to bet at short odds on this.
A remain win of 1 or 2% will validate the online methodology more than the phone polls. Something to bear in mind
(So long as the polls stay on broadly the same trajectories till polling day...)
The stupid DC Tessa Jowell photo on Abbey Road about 'creative industries' has already been used as a leave poster, with the tag line 'if only we'd been in the Eu in the sixties, the Beatles might have made it'
On this, @SeanT and @Paul_Bedfordshire are right - the significance of the YouGov article is their claim that they have discovered the source of the online/phone discrepancy and that it is the online polls which are more right. If that is correct, it is dynamite, and much more significant than the headline figures of one particular poll.
The difficulty is that it's very hard to know how much weight to give to YouGov's claim.
Company A claims it's product is best shocker.
They may be right. They may be wrong. We'll find out in about 33 days time.
They are making two claims as far as I can tell. Firstly, the sampling by the Populus phone polls includes too many voters educated to at least degree level.
Secondly, they point out that they took time to do their own phone poll and were persistent in contacting everyone randomly selected to be called. I'm guessing regular phone pollsters don't publish their success rates - i.e. how many people did they give up on? If they did, that could be very telling.
On this, @SeanT and @Paul_Bedfordshire are right - the significance of the YouGov article is their claim that they have discovered the source of the online/phone discrepancy and that it is the online polls which are more right. If that is correct, it is dynamite, and much more significant than the headline figures of one particular poll.
The difficulty is that it's very hard to know how much weight to give to YouGov's claim.
Well indeed.
If nothing else, you have to admire YouGov's ballsiness here. They're risking their entire reputation.
It sure is. But for me it just feels right. I don't see how strong, persistent, widespread concerns about immigration work with a lengthening Remain lead.
On this, @SeanT and @Paul_Bedfordshire are right - the significance of the YouGov article is their claim that they have discovered the source of the online/phone discrepancy and that it is the online polls which are more right. If that is correct, it is dynamite, and much more significant than the headline figures of one particular poll.
The difficulty is that it's very hard to know how much weight to give to YouGov's claim.
Company A claims it's product is best shocker.
They may be right. They may be wrong. We'll find out in about 33 days time.
They are making two claims as far as I can tell. Firstly, the sampling by the Populus phone polls includes too many voters educated to at least degree level.
Secondly, they point out that they took time to do their own phone poll and were persistent in contacting everyone randomly selected to be called. I'm guessing regular phone pollsters don't publish their success rates - i.e. how many people did they give up on? If they did, that could be very telling.
My hunch, no more than that, is that YouGov's phone list looks different from Populus' Comres' and IPSOS Mori's lists.
You can resample and weight to your heart's content, but the quality of the raw data does matter.
Meek's post concerning the 1-4 being value was put up before this Yougov revelation, it has changed my mind about where the fair price is slightly ^^; (1-4 -> 2-5 ^_~)
Yes, Alastair was underestimating the uncertainty IMO (even without YouGov's interesting intervention).
It's quite possible that 'Leave to win' and 'Remain to get 60% to 65%' are both good value, given that the information we do have is so contradictory. Or, in other words, that the market is over-confident that it will end up at around what (most of) the phone polls are currently telling us.
A bit like GE2015, perhaps?
Yes, I am backing both ends against the middle. Polling in refereda is intrinsically more subject to error and bias. This worked for me in the GE, where i won substantially by betting on Labour 250 or less, with a certain amount of cover at the other end.
I backed Jacks ARSE plus added an underestimating factor. The equivalent here would be the 60% Remain band.
On this, @SeanT and @Paul_Bedfordshire are right - the significance of the YouGov article is their claim that they have discovered the source of the online/phone discrepancy and that it is the online polls which are more right. If that is correct, it is dynamite, and much more significant than the headline figures of one particular poll.
The difficulty is that it's very hard to know how much weight to give to YouGov's claim.
Well indeed.
If nothing else, you have to admire YouGov's ballsiness here. They're risking their entire reputation.
It sure is. But for me it just feels right. I don't see how strong, persistent, widespread concerns about immigration work with a lengthening Remain lead.
Because stronger, persistent, widespread and growing concerns about the economy trump immigration concerns where nothing much is changing so it is already factored in.
Leave need to either win the economic argument or get something new and significant to stick on immigration. I haven't seen the latter happen.
On this, @SeanT and @Paul_Bedfordshire are right - the significance of the YouGov article is their claim that they have discovered the source of the online/phone discrepancy and that it is the online polls which are more right. If that is correct, it is dynamite, and much more significant than the headline figures of one particular poll.
The difficulty is that it's very hard to know how much weight to give to YouGov's claim.
Well indeed.
If nothing else, you have to admire YouGov's ballsiness here. They're risking their entire reputation.
It sure is. But for me it just feels right. I don't see how strong, persistent, widespread concerns about immigration work with a lengthening Remain lead.
I suppose the mechanism is that the more extreme anti-immigration rhetoric repels the undecided and pushes them into Remain, and adds to the certainty of Remainers to vote, while doing little to add to the Leave core vote.
A second possibility is that it pushes those who favoured an EFTA arrangement with FOM into the Remain camp.
On this, @SeanT and @Paul_Bedfordshire are right - the significance of the YouGov article is their claim that they have discovered the source of the online/phone discrepancy and that it is the online polls which are more right. If that is correct, it is dynamite, and much more significant than the headline figures of one particular poll.
The difficulty is that it's very hard to know how much weight to give to YouGov's claim.
Well indeed.
If nothing else, you have to admire YouGov's ballsiness here. They're risking their entire reputation.
It sure is. But for me it just feels right. I don't see how strong, persistent, widespread concerns about immigration work with a lengthening Remain lead.
Yep. And the polls - hah! - show that people are MORE concerned about immigration, with regards to the EU, than they are about the economy.
It's quite frustrating. The polls are all we have to go on. But the polls MUST be flawed. It's like trying to masturbate a frog in the dark, as I am sure we all agree.
Voters would rather admit to pollsters they had masturbated a frog than to voting Leave.
Sri Lanka, the Jeremy Corbyn of cricket. Start promisingly against weak opposition (England's batsmen/Andrew Burnham) but collapse in an undignified heap when they actually come up against people who know what they're doing (England's pace attack/any passably sane politician).
On this, @SeanT and @Paul_Bedfordshire are right - the significance of the YouGov article is their claim that they have discovered the source of the online/phone discrepancy and that it is the online polls which are more right. If that is correct, it is dynamite, and much more significant than the headline figures of one particular poll.
The difficulty is that it's very hard to know how much weight to give to YouGov's claim.
Well indeed.
If nothing else, you have to admire YouGov's ballsiness here. They're risking their entire reputation.
It sure is. But for me it just feels right. I don't see how strong, persistent, widespread concerns about immigration work with a lengthening Remain lead.
Yep. And the polls - hah! - show that people are MORE concerned about immigration, with regards to the EU, than they are about the economy.
It's quite frustrating. The polls are all we have to go on. But the polls MUST be flawed. It's like trying to masturbate a frog in the dark, as I am sure we all agree.
Voters would rather admit to pollsters they had masturbated a frog than to voting Leave.
I have encountered very few Leavers shy about voicing their opinions, indeed they are more typically tiresomely voiciferous on the issue...
Probably somewhat understating his influence. Still, another reason to vote leave, since if they are going to take this attitude if we do leave, one has to wonders what it will be if we stay.
On this, @SeanT and @Paul_Bedfordshire are right - the significance of the YouGov article is their claim that they have discovered the source of the online/phone discrepancy and that it is the online polls which are more right. If that is correct, it is dynamite, and much more significant than the headline figures of one particular poll.
The difficulty is that it's very hard to know how much weight to give to YouGov's claim.
Well indeed.
If nothing else, you have to admire YouGov's ballsiness here. They're risking their entire reputation.
It sure is. But for me it just feels right. I don't see how strong, persistent, widespread concerns about immigration work with a lengthening Remain lead.
Yep. And the polls - hah! - show that people are MORE concerned about immigration, with regards to the EU, than they are about the economy.
It's quite frustrating. The polls are all we have to go on. But the polls MUST be flawed. It's like trying to masturbate a frog in the dark, as I am sure we all agree.
Voters would rather admit to pollsters they had masturbated a frog than to voting Leave.
I have encountered very few Leavers shy about voicing their opinions, indeed they are more typically tiresomely voiciferous on the issue...
Really? Then Leave are going to storm it, because most of the Leavers I know are just keeping their head down and mouths shut - letting the Remainers hector away at them from up there on the moral high ground.
On this, @SeanT and @Paul_Bedfordshire are right - the significance of the YouGov article is their claim that they have discovered the source of the online/phone discrepancy and that it is the online polls which are more right. If that is correct, it is dynamite, and much more significant than the headline figures of one particular poll.
The difficulty is that it's very hard to know how much weight to give to YouGov's claim.
Well indeed.
If nothing else, you have to admire YouGov's ballsiness here. They're risking their entire reputation.
It sure is. But for me it just feels right. I don't see how strong, persistent, widespread concerns about immigration work with a lengthening Remain lead.
Yep. And the polls - hah! - show that people are MORE concerned about immigration, with regards to the EU, than they are about the economy.
It's quite frustrating. The polls are all we have to go on. But the polls MUST be flawed. It's like trying to masturbate a frog in the dark, as I am sure we all agree.
Voters would rather admit to pollsters they had masturbated a frog than to voting Leave.
I have encountered very few Leavers shy about voicing their opinions, indeed they are more typically tiresomely voiciferous on the issue...
"If the British leave Europe, people will have to face the consequences -- we will have to, just as they will. It's not a threat but our relations will no longer be what they are today."
Not so much a threat as a statement of the bleeding obvious. If Brexit made no difference to our relationship with the EU then surely there would be little point to it?
Perhaps the significance of this is that there will be no 'all over bar the shouting' feeling between now and the vote, even if one side looks to be well ahead, because all polls will be open to challenge.
"If the British leave Europe, people will have to face the consequences -- we will have to, just as they will. It's not a threat but our relations will no longer be what they are today."
Not so much a threat as a statement of the bleeding obvious. If Brexit made no difference to our relationship with the EU then surely there would be little point to it?
If Remain wins, we will wreak a terrible revenge on Luxembourg.
Make it THE destination for Hen and Stag parties...
"If the British leave Europe, people will have to face the consequences -- we will have to, just as they will. It's not a threat but our relations will no longer be what they are today."
Not so much a threat as a statement of the bleeding obvious. If Brexit made no difference to our relationship with the EU then surely there would be little point to it?
If Remain wins, we will wreak a terrible revenge on Luxembourg.
Make it THE destination for Hen and Stag parties...
I think its time the Scottish football took a leaf out of the NFLs book and staged matches abroad.
On this, @SeanT and @Paul_Bedfordshire are right - the significance of the YouGov article is their claim that they have discovered the source of the online/phone discrepancy and that it is the online polls which are more right. If that is correct, it is dynamite, and much more significant than the headline figures of one particular poll.
The difficulty is that it's very hard to know how much weight to give to YouGov's claim.
Well indeed.
If nothing else, you have to admire YouGov's ballsiness here. They're risking their entire reputation.
It sure is. But for me it just feels right. I don't see how strong, persistent, widespread concerns about immigration work with a lengthening Remain lead.
Yep. And the polls - hah! - show that people are MORE concerned about immigration, with regards to the EU, than they are about the economy.
It's quite frustrating. The polls are all we have to go on. But the polls MUST be flawed. It's like trying to masturbate a frog in the dark, as I am sure we all agree.
Voters would rather admit to pollsters they had masturbated a frog than to voting Leave.
I have encountered very few Leavers shy about voicing their opinions, indeed they are more typically tiresomely voiciferous on the issue...
Really? Then Leave are going to storm it, because most of the Leavers I know are just keeping their head down and mouths shut - letting the Remainers hector away at them from up there on the moral high ground.
How's the view by the way?
I am glad you agree that Remain hold the moral high ground, there may be hope for you yet. Heaven has a place for the sinner that repents!
Mr. Mark, as I think of it, yes, but I'm very relaxed about that sort of thing. If people want to pronounce Ostenwald 'Ostenvald' or 'Ostenwold' I'm easy either way.
On this, @SeanT and @Paul_Bedfordshire are right - the significance of the YouGov article is their claim that they have discovered the source of the online/phone discrepancy and that it is the online polls which are more right. If that is correct, it is dynamite, and much more significant than the headline figures of one particular poll.
The difficulty is that it's very hard to know how much weight to give to YouGov's claim.
Well indeed.
If nothing else, you have to admire YouGov's ballsiness here. They're risking their entire reputation.
It sure is. But for me it just feels right. I don't see how strong, persistent, widespread concerns about immigration work with a lengthening Remain lead.
Yep. And the polls - hah! - show that people are MORE concerned about immigration, with regards to the EU, than they are about the economy.
It's quite frustrating. The polls are all we have to go on. But the polls MUST be flawed. It's like trying to masturbate a frog in the dark, as I am sure we all agree.
Voters would rather admit to pollsters they had masturbated a frog than to voting Leave.
I have encountered very few Leavers shy about voicing their opinions, indeed they are more typically tiresomely voiciferous on the issue...
Really? Then Leave are going to storm it, because most of the Leavers I know are just keeping their head down and mouths shut - letting the Remainers hector away at them from up there on the moral high ground.
How's the view by the way?
I am glad you agree that Remain hold the moral high ground, there may be hope for you yet. Heaven has a place for the sinner that repents!
How could you not be on the moral high ground? All around you, all below are racists and losers and life's detritus. This we know because you keep telling us it is so.
On this, @SeanT and @Paul_Bedfordshire are right - the significance of the YouGov article is their claim that they have discovered the source of the online/phone discrepancy and that it is the online polls which are more right. If that is correct, it is dynamite, and much more significant than the headline figures of one particular poll.
The difficulty is that it's very hard to know how much weight to give to YouGov's claim.
Company A claims it's product is best shocker.
They may be right. They may be wrong. We'll find out in about 33 days time.
They are making two claims as far as I can tell. Firstly, the sampling by the Populus phone polls includes too many voters educated to at least degree level.
Secondly, they point out that they took time to do their own phone poll and were persistent in contacting everyone randomly selected to be called. I'm guessing regular phone pollsters don't publish their success rates - i.e. how many people did they give up on? If they did, that could be very telling.
Interestingly, the BES takes that approach. When they fail to talk to someone on a number, they keep trying until they get a response. Their phone poll shows only a very narrow Remain lead.
There is a black lining to this silver cloud, however. When the BES survey asked "I know you Don't Know, but if we said you have to make a choice, what would it be?", then the DKs broke very heavily for Remain.
On this, @SeanT and @Paul_Bedfordshire are right - the significance of the YouGov article is their claim that they have discovered the source of the online/phone discrepancy and that it is the online polls which are more right. If that is correct, it is dynamite, and much more significant than the headline figures of one particular poll.
The difficulty is that it's very hard to know how much weight to give to YouGov's claim.
Well indeed.
If nothing else, you have to admire YouGov's ballsiness here. They're risking their entire reputation.
It sure is. But for me it just feels right. I don't see how strong, persistent, widespread concerns about immigration work with a lengthening Remain lead.
Yep. And the polls - hah! - show that people are MORE concerned about immigration, with regards to the EU, than they are about the economy.
It's quite frustrating. The polls are all we have to go on. But the polls MUST be flawed. It's like trying to masturbate a frog in the dark, as I am sure we all agree.
Voters would rather admit to pollsters they had masturbated a frog than to voting Leave.
I have encountered very few Leavers shy about voicing their opinions, indeed they are more typically tiresomely voiciferous on the issue...
Really? Then Leave are going to storm it, because most of the Leavers I know are just keeping their head down and mouths shut - letting the Remainers hector away at them from up there on the moral high ground.
How's the view by the way?
I am glad you agree that Remain hold the moral high ground, there may be hope for you yet. Heaven has a place for the sinner that repents!
How could you not be on the moral high ground? All around you, all below are racists and losers and life's detritus. This we know because you keep telling us it is so.
You will struggle to find a post where I have referred to anyone here as a racist or a one of life's detrius. Misguided, Pooteresque, Blimpish or xenophobic maybe, but not racist. Indeed some Leavers on here have accused me of being racist for believing in a common European culture.
On this, @SeanT and @Paul_Bedfordshire are right - the significance of the YouGov article is their claim that they have discovered the source of the online/phone discrepancy and that it is the online polls which are more right. If that is correct, it is dynamite, and much more significant than the headline figures of one particular poll.
The difficulty is that it's very hard to know how much weight to give to YouGov's claim.
Well indeed.
If nothing else, you have to admire YouGov's ballsiness here. They're risking their entire reputation.
It sure is. But for me it just feels right. I don't see how strong, persistent, widespread concerns about immigration work with a lengthening Remain lead.
Yep. And the polls - hah! - show that people are MORE concerned about immigration, with regards to the EU, than they are about the economy.
It's quite frustrating. The polls are all we have to go on. But the polls MUST be flawed. It's like trying to masturbate a frog in the dark, as I am sure we all agree.
Voters would rather admit to pollsters they had masturbated a frog than to voting Leave.
I have encountered very few Leavers shy about voicing their opinions, indeed they are more typically tiresomely voiciferous on the issue...
Really? Then Leave are going to storm it, because most of the Leavers I know are just keeping their head down and mouths shut - letting the Remainers hector away at them from up there on the moral high ground.
How's the view by the way?
I am glad you agree that Remain hold the moral high ground, there may be hope for you yet. Heaven has a place for the sinner that repents!
How could you not be on the moral high ground? All around you, all below are racists and losers and life's detritus. This we know because you keep telling us it is so.
You will struggle to find a post where I have referred to anyone here as a racist or a one of life's detrius. Misguided, Pooteresque, Blimpish or xenophobic maybe, but not racist. Indeed some Leavers on here have accused me of being racist for believing in a common European culture.
On this, @SeanT and @Paul_Bedfordshire are right - the significance of the YouGov article is their claim that they have discovered the source of the online/phone discrepancy and that it is the online polls which are more right. If that is correct, it is dynamite, and much more significant than the headline figures of one particular poll.
The difficulty is that it's very hard to know how much weight to give to YouGov's claim.
Company A claims it's product is best shocker.
They may be right. They may be wrong. We'll find out in about 33 days time.
They are making two claims as far as I can tell. Firstly, the sampling by the Populus phone polls includes too many voters educated to at least degree level.
Secondly, they point out that they took time to do their own phone poll and were persistent in contacting everyone randomly selected to be called. I'm guessing regular phone pollsters don't publish their success rates - i.e. how many people did they give up on? If they did, that could be very telling.
Interestingly, the BES takes that approach. When they fail to talk to someone on a number, they keep trying until they get a response. Their phone poll shows only a very narrow Remain lead.
There is a black lining to this silver cloud, however. When the BES survey asked "I know you Don't Know, but if we said you have to make a choice, what would it be?", then the DKs broke very heavily for Remain.
Dr. Foxinsox, a common European culture? Are you trying to encourage people to mention Hitler?
Or Napoleon? Lots of similarities between the two. Both far below average height. Both oversexed. Both army corporals. Neither were born in the country they led. Both were astonishingly greedy and corrupt. Both conquered Europe and imposed various family and friends to run it for their personal gain. Both died in their fifties. Both were officially Catholics but didn't attend mass. And both invaded Russia with disastrous consequences.
On the other hand, Napoleon didn't try to kill all the Jews, Slavs, gypsies, homosexuals and Jehovah's Witnesses.
Dr. Foxinsox, a common European culture? Are you trying to encourage people to mention Hitler?
Or Napoleon? Lots of similarities between the two. Both far below average height. Both oversexed. Both army corporals. Neither were born in the country they led. Both were astonishingly greedy and corrupt. Both conquered Europe and imposed various family and friends to run it for their personal gain. Both died in their fifties. Both were officially Catholics but didn't attend mass. And both invaded Russia with disastrous consequences.
On the other hand, Napoleon didn't try to kill all the Jews, Slavs, gypsies, homosexuals and Jehovah's Witnesses.
I think you do Napoleon a great injustice.
Hitler was far from oversexed as far as I know.
I'm not entirely sure 'corrupt' describes either of them.
"If the British leave Europe, people will have to face the consequences -- we will have to, just as they will. It's not a threat but our relations will no longer be what they are today."
Not so much a threat as a statement of the bleeding obvious. If Brexit made no difference to our relationship with the EU then surely there would be little point to it?
Mr. Doethur, the dinkiness of Napoleon is a false perception, a triumph of British cartoonists over accurate measurement.
He was actually much the same height as Hitler (or for that matter Stalin). The confusion arises because there was a series of poor harvests on the French mainland in the years around his birth which diminished adolescent growth. So the average Frenchman was shorter than Napoleon (from which point of view my post could have been better phrased) but since they were far smaller than the European average, he was seen as short.
I think the Spanish were even shorter, but I don't know much about Spain and I could easily be wrong.
Dr. Foxinsox, a common European culture? Are you trying to encourage people to mention Hitler?
Or Napoleon? Lots of similarities between the two. Both far below average height. Both oversexed. Both army corporals. Neither were born in the country they led. Both were astonishingly greedy and corrupt. Both conquered Europe and imposed various family and friends to run it for their personal gain. Both died in their fifties. Both were officially Catholics but didn't attend mass. And both invaded Russia with disastrous consequences.
On the other hand, Napoleon didn't try to kill all the Jews, Slavs, gypsies, homosexuals and Jehovah's Witnesses.
Fwiw Hitler was taller than Boney, Stalin, Lenin, Franco, Musso & Churchill.
Dr. Foxinsox, a common European culture? Are you trying to encourage people to mention Hitler?
Or Napoleon? Lots of similarities between the two. Both far below average height. Both oversexed. Both army corporals. Neither were born in the country they led. Both were astonishingly greedy and corrupt. Both conquered Europe and imposed various family and friends to run it for their personal gain. Both died in their fifties. Both were officially Catholics but didn't attend mass. And both invaded Russia with disastrous consequences.
On the other hand, Napoleon didn't try to kill all the Jews, Slavs, gypsies, homosexuals and Jehovah's Witnesses.
I think you do Napoleon a great injustice.
Hitler was far from oversexed as far as I know.
I'm not entirely sure 'corrupt' describes either of them.
Google his niece, Gelli.
What would you describe as corruption if these two don't meet the definition?
Dr. Foxinsox, a common European culture? Are you trying to encourage people to mention Hitler?
Or Napoleon? Lots of similarities between the two. Both far below average height. Both oversexed. Both army corporals. Neither were born in the country they led. Both were astonishingly greedy and corrupt. Both conquered Europe and imposed various family and friends to run it for their personal gain. Both died in their fifties. Both were officially Catholics but didn't attend mass. And both invaded Russia with disastrous consequences.
On the other hand, Napoleon didn't try to kill all the Jews, Slavs, gypsies, homosexuals and Jehovah's Witnesses.
Fwiw Hitler was taller than Boney, Stalin, Lenin, Franco, Musso & Churchill.
The FTSE indices had a very strong day today, particularly the housebuilders. The markets, at least, after a recent shaky period, appear to be coming around to the view that REMAIN will prevail.
Mr. Brooke, well, if the Morris Dancer Party had been elected, our moderate foreign policy of invading France would've started (and also finished) by now.
Dr. Foxinsox, a common European culture? Are you trying to encourage people to mention Hitler?
Or Napoleon? Lots of similarities between the two. Both far below average height. Both oversexed. Both army corporals. Neither were born in the country they led. Both were astonishingly greedy and corrupt. Both conquered Europe and imposed various family and friends to run it for their personal gain. Both died in their fifties. Both were officially Catholics but didn't attend mass. And both invaded Russia with disastrous consequences.
On the other hand, Napoleon didn't try to kill all the Jews, Slavs, gypsies, homosexuals and Jehovah's Witnesses.
Fwiw Hitler was taller than Boney, Stalin, Lenin, Franco, Musso & Churchill.
Dr. Foxinsox, a common European culture? Are you trying to encourage people to mention Hitler?
Or Napoleon? Lots of similarities between the two. Both far below average height. Both oversexed. Both army corporals. Neither were born in the country they led. Both were astonishingly greedy and corrupt. Both conquered Europe and imposed various family and friends to run it for their personal gain. Both died in their fifties. Both were officially Catholics but didn't attend mass. And both invaded Russia with disastrous consequences.
On the other hand, Napoleon didn't try to kill all the Jews, Slavs, gypsies, homosexuals and Jehovah's Witnesses.
I think you do Napoleon a great injustice.
Hitler was far from oversexed as far as I know.
I'm not entirely sure 'corrupt' describes either of them.
Google his niece, Gelli.
What would you describe as corruption if these two don't meet the definition?
A possible relationship. Even so it hardly amounts to over-sexed.
Dr. Foxinsox, a common European culture? Are you trying to encourage people to mention Hitler?
Or Napoleon? Lots of similarities between the two. Both far below average height. Both oversexed. Both army corporals. Neither were born in the country they led. Both were astonishingly greedy and corrupt. Both conquered Europe and imposed various family and friends to run it for their personal gain. Both died in their fifties. Both were officially Catholics but didn't attend mass. And both invaded Russia with disastrous consequences.
On the other hand, Napoleon didn't try to kill all the Jews, Slavs, gypsies, homosexuals and Jehovah's Witnesses.
Fwiw Hitler was taller than Boney, Stalin, Lenin, Franco, Musso & Churchill.
And Mao, or Kim Jong Il, or Goebbels...
Dunno, but late 19thC nutrition being what it was, I'd guess AH was probably around or above average height for his cohort.
First time today that leave has really played the immigration card with Gove's speech and the 5 million figure . Do Leave have the appetite though for over a month banging home the impact of these levels of immigration on our social fabric and public services which is what they need to do to win?
Dr. Foxinsox, a common European culture? Are you trying to encourage people to mention Hitler?
Or Napoleon? Lots of similarities between the two. Both far below average height. Both oversexed. Both army corporals. Neither were born in the country they led. Both were astonishingly greedy and corrupt. Both conquered Europe and imposed various family and friends to run it for their personal gain. Both died in their fifties. Both were officially Catholics but didn't attend mass. And both invaded Russia with disastrous consequences.
On the other hand, Napoleon didn't try to kill all the Jews, Slavs, gypsies, homosexuals and Jehovah's Witnesses.
I think you do Napoleon a great injustice.
Hitler was far from oversexed as far as I know.
I'm not entirely sure 'corrupt' describes either of them.
Google his niece, Gelli.
What would you describe as corruption if these two don't meet the definition?
A possible relationship. Even so it hardly amounts to over-sexed.
Goring.
Okaaay...
As for the suggestion that he had a relationship with Goering, I can only assume I have misunderstood you. He was very much against that sort of thing. Ernst Roehm was killed partly because of his paedarastic tendencies.
And on that bombshell, I'm off out. Have a good evening all.
"If the British leave Europe, people will have to face the consequences -- we will have to, just as they will. It's not a threat but our relations will no longer be what they are today."
Not so much a threat as a statement of the bleeding obvious. If Brexit made no difference to our relationship with the EU then surely there would be little point to it?
Nah just nuke the bastards
It will be WAR!! anyway
John Major's bastards? That's taking Tory civil war a bit too far.
Not entirely confident I am going to see a whole day's play tomorrow. It was always a risk to have day 3 at Headingley in May. Especially with this batting line up and Broad and Anderson.
Dr. Foxinsox, a common European culture? Are you trying to encourage people to mention Hitler?
I will leave that to Leave!
Though when it comes to military conquest, land seizures and imperial colonisation we do demonstrate many similarities to our continental cousins.
We just learnt much earlier than the others that there was no future in conquering our fellow Europeans. If only we'd stuck to that principle with Ireland we'd might still be in the empire business today.
On this, @SeanT and @Paul_Bedfordshire are right - the significance of the YouGov article is their claim that they have discovered the source of the online/phone discrepancy and that it is the online polls which are more right. If that is correct, it is dynamite, and much more significant than the headline figures of one particular poll.
The difficulty is that it's very hard to know how much weight to give to YouGov's claim.
Company A claims it's product is best shocker.
They may be right. They may be wrong. We'll find out in about 33 days time.
They are making two claims as far as I can tell. Firstly, the sampling by the Populus phone polls includes too many voters educated to at least degree level.
Secondly, they point out that they took time to do their own phone poll and were persistent in contacting everyone randomly selected to be called. I'm guessing regular phone pollsters don't publish their success rates - i.e. how many people did they give up on? If they did, that could be very telling.
Interestingly, the BES takes that approach. When they fail to talk to someone on a number, they keep trying until they get a response. Their phone poll shows only a very narrow Remain lead.
There is a black lining to this silver cloud, however. When the BES survey asked "I know you Don't Know, but if we said you have to make a choice, what would it be?", then the DKs broke very heavily for Remain.
DK's will likely win it for Remain but depends on how many turnout, either way what is clear is Remain are not likely to get the 60%+ they need to settle the issue and Leave and UKIP will call for EUref2 almost as soon as the result is known if it is close
Gove and his five million immigrants provoked the predictable response that he was plucking figures out of thin air. Hmm ... now where have we heard that before? Oh yes, Remain started it.
I'd like to bring up Canada's intervention this morning. I think people (not unusually here) are being very naive about American strategic aims and the scope of American influence.
I always refer people back to American foreign policy luminary Zbigniew Brzezinski and his whitepaper 'A geostrategy for Eurasia', which I believe, if not the sole origin, is at least a very good brief summary of the basis of American geostrategic activity over the last 20 years.
'Europe is America's essential geopolitical bridgehead in Eurasia. America's stake in democratic Europe is enormous. Unlike America's links with Japan, NATO entrenches American political influence and military power on the Eurasian mainland. With the allied European nations still highly dependent on U.S. protection, any expansion of Europe's political scope is automatically an expansion of U.S. influence. Conversely, the United States' ability to project influence and power in Eurasia relies on close transatlantic ties.'
Incidentally, also on the seemingly unstoppable march of Turkey toward EU accession despite it being a tinpot dictatorship: 'America should use its influence in Europe to encourage Turkey's eventual admission to the EU' http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/1254548/posts
All these PB Remainers saying 'Ha - Canada' - just silliness. Canada is America's back garden. What America wants America gets, the same as all the other organisations and countries lining up for their tuppence worth. It's not disappointing because it's not surprising.
"If the British leave Europe, people will have to face the consequences -- we will have to, just as they will. It's not a threat but our relations will no longer be what they are today."
Not so much a threat as a statement of the bleeding obvious. If Brexit made no difference to our relationship with the EU then surely there would be little point to it?
Nah just nuke the bastards
It will be WAR!! anyway
John Major's bastards?
Goodness, I didn't know his relationship with Edwina went that far!
With the trade deficit also having grown during q1 it looks like another record year for the UK's current account deficit.
Problem is London dwarfs the rest and accounts for half the visitors to the UK, London is the most visited city in the world on some measures, while the UK is only the 8th most visited nation. Britons have few other cities worldwide to compete with London, NY maybe and that is about it. France is the most visited nation by contrast, followed by the US and then Spain. Britons have many more nations they can visit for better weather and often equal cultural attractions, few foreigners come to Briton for the sunshine!
Dr. Foxinsox, a common European culture? Are you trying to encourage people to mention Hitler?
I will leave that to Leave!
Though when it comes to military conquest, land seizures and imperial colonisation we do demonstrate many similarities to our continental cousins.
We just learnt much earlier than the others that there was no future in conquering our fellow Europeans. If only we'd stuck to that principle with Ireland we'd might still be in the empire business today.
Profound misunderstanding of why countries invade each other there I feel.
On this, @SeanT and @Paul_Bedfordshire are right - the significance of the YouGov article is their claim that they have discovered the source of the online/phone discrepancy and that it is the online polls which are more right. If that is correct, it is dynamite, and much more significant than the headline figures of one particular poll.
The difficulty is that it's very hard to know how much weight to give to YouGov's claim.
Company A claims it's product is best shocker.
They may be right. They may be wrong. We'll find out in about 33 days time.
They are making two claims as far as I can tell. Firstly, the sampling by the Populus phone polls includes too many voters educated to at least degree level.
Secondly, they point out that they took time to do their own phone poll and were persistent in contacting everyone randomly selected to be called. I'm guessing regular phone pollsters don't publish their success rates - i.e. how many people did they give up on? If they did, that could be very telling.
Interestingly, the BES takes that approach. When they fail to talk to someone on a number, they keep trying until they get a response. Their phone poll shows only a very narrow Remain lead.
There is a black lining to this silver cloud, however. When the BES survey asked "I know you Don't Know, but if we said you have to make a choice, what would it be?", then the DKs broke very heavily for Remain.
DK's will likely win it for Remain but depends on how many turnout, either way what is clear is Remain are not likely to get the 60%+ they need to settle the issue and Leave and UKIP will call for EUref2 almost as soon as the result is known if it is close
Part of UKIP may call for EUREF2 but not most of LEAVE. What the referendum will do is set in stone the positions of all folk who have publicly stated their view on why we should REMAIN. 1. Adding more countries to the EU will become virtually impossible whilst UK is in the EU. 2. Any encroachment of power becomes subject to legal action to require another referendum so the UK Govt will be forced to oppose any and disuade the EU from trying it. Having a UK inside the EU hamstrung by the positions REMAIN have taken might be worse for the EU than if we had left. Ironic?
A Conservative party in office with a small majority is just going to have to avoid these things for the rest of its time in power.
With the trade deficit also having grown during q1 it looks like another record year for the UK's current account deficit.
Problem is London dwarfs the rest and accounts for half the visitors to the UK, London is the most visited city in the world on some measures, while the UK is only the 8th most visited nation. Britons have few other cities worldwide to compete with London, NY maybe and that is about it. France is the most visited nation by contrast, followed by the US and then Spain. Britons have many more nations they can visit for better weather and often equal cultural attractions, few foreigners come to Briton for the sunshine!
Britain's tourism deficit isn't caused by a lack of tourists from overseas its because we spend endless billions more on overseas tourism than we earn.
That's what happens when government pumps a trillion pounds of borrowed money into the economy in under a decade - it steadily flows out on overseas tourism and imported consumer tat.
Dr. Foxinsox, a common European culture? Are you trying to encourage people to mention Hitler?
I will leave that to Leave!
Though when it comes to military conquest, land seizures and imperial colonisation we do demonstrate many similarities to our continental cousins.
Britain's conquests were mostly to enlarge our trade. We did not seek to have political control of our European neighbours unlike Napoleon, Hitler, et al. With Europe we have sought to maintain a balance of power and still do.
Comments
Ie we should treat online polps as gold standard and phone polls as iffy remain shillfests.
It's quite possible that 'Leave to win' and 'Remain to get 60% to 65%' are both good value, given that the information we do have is so contradictory. Or, in other words, that the market is over-confident that it will end up at around what (most of) the phone polls are currently telling us.
A bit like GE2015, perhaps?
Yougov's own leading lights can't agree on the subject so it's a bit of a stretch to now claim online polls are now gold standard.
Nobody knows for sure whether the phone or online polls are more accurate but I guess people will believe what they want to believe.
The first thing to say is that those things are correlated: older people tend to have had less formal education, while social classes A and B have had more education than classes C, D, E. So if Stephan Shakespeare from YouGov criticises Matt SIngh and Peter Kellner for not being aware of the education determinant when the latter accuse others of not being aware of the social class determinant, who in turn stress the age determinant, they are all talking about factors that are correlated. So it probably isn't as straightforward as each of these camps make it out to be.
Secondly pollsters know all about the sampling and weighting on their own polls because they have grappled with them long and hard. They don't really know how other pollsters have gone about their sampling and weighting beyond the basic information in the tables. By focusing on one factor in the others' polls they are almost certainly missing the real differences.
The difficulty is that it's very hard to know how much weight to give to YouGov's claim.
They may be right. They may be wrong. We'll find out in about 33 days time.
But, yes, you are right. Who the hell knows? Perhaps the one thing we can say is that it is rather brave to bet at short odds on this.
(So long as the polls stay on broadly the same trajectories till polling day...)
Secondly, they point out that they took time to do their own phone poll and were persistent in contacting everyone randomly selected to be called. I'm guessing regular phone pollsters don't publish their success rates - i.e. how many people did they give up on? If they did, that could be very telling.
You can resample and weight to your heart's content, but the quality of the raw data does matter.
8 runs more to avoid the follow on!!
I backed Jacks ARSE plus added an underestimating factor. The equivalent here would be the 60% Remain band.
Leave need to either win the economic argument or get something new and significant to stick on immigration. I haven't seen the latter happen.
Don't go down there, Leavers...... It's a threesome with the Krankies!
Anderson the man taking the ball home.
A second possibility is that it pushes those who favoured an EFTA arrangement with FOM into the Remain camp.
You are the @Roger of cricket and I claim 10 more Sri Lanka wickets ....
Oh FFS now we're being threatened by Luxemburg
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/05/20/british-deserters-will-face-the-consequences-warns-eus-juncker/
Feels a bit similar looking at polling.
How's the view by the way?
Edited extra bit: not as bad as when (by coincidence) I was going to have the Felarian dynasty be called Valois. Did have to change that, alas.
"If the British leave Europe, people will have to face the consequences -- we will have to, just as they will. It's not a threat but our relations will no longer be what they are today."
Not so much a threat as a statement of the bleeding obvious. If Brexit made no difference to our relationship with the EU then surely there would be little point to it?
Make it THE destination for Hen and Stag parties...
Celtic v Rangers in Luxembourg?
Hope you all laid the draw?
There is a black lining to this silver cloud, however. When the BES survey asked "I know you Don't Know, but if we said you have to make a choice, what would it be?", then the DKs broke very heavily for Remain.
EU referendum will hinge on whether the WWC can be arsed to vote.
USA will hinge on whether WWC women decide it is more important that they are white and working class or women and working class
Lots of similarities between the two. Both far below average height. Both oversexed. Both army corporals. Neither were born in the country they led. Both were astonishingly greedy and corrupt. Both conquered Europe and imposed various family and friends to run it for their personal gain. Both died in their fifties. Both were officially Catholics but didn't attend mass. And both invaded Russia with disastrous consequences.
On the other hand, Napoleon didn't try to kill all the Jews, Slavs, gypsies, homosexuals and Jehovah's Witnesses.
Hitler was far from oversexed as far as I know.
I'm not entirely sure 'corrupt' describes either of them.
It will be WAR!! anyway
I think the Spanish were even shorter, but I don't know much about Spain and I could easily be wrong.
What would you describe as corruption if these two don't meet the definition?
It is tiny.
Goring.
and the 5 million figure . Do Leave have the appetite though for over a month banging home the impact of these levels of immigration on our social fabric and public services which is what they need to do to win?
As for the suggestion that he had a relationship with Goering, I can only assume I have misunderstood you. He was very much against that sort of thing. Ernst Roehm was killed partly because of his paedarastic tendencies.
And on that bombshell, I'm off out. Have a good evening all.
Though when it comes to military conquest, land seizures and imperial colonisation we do demonstrate many similarities to our continental cousins.
Hey ho.
https://twitter.com/DICS131294/status/733718380604207106
"Basil Fawlty: Me? You started it.
German Guest: We did not!
Basil Fawlty: Yes, you did. You invaded Poland."
Do I get the prize for bringing in the Nazis?
Osborne should have built about 1 million new homes by now, instead we have a couple of conservatories and some empty flats in London
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36340487
It continues to worsen with expenditure up 9% and income down 4% so far during 2016.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/leisureandtourism/bulletins/overseastravelandtourism/provisionalresultsformarch2016
With the trade deficit also having grown during q1 it looks like another record year for the UK's current account deficit.
I always refer people back to American foreign policy luminary Zbigniew Brzezinski and his whitepaper 'A geostrategy for Eurasia', which I believe, if not the sole origin, is at least a very good brief summary of the basis of American geostrategic activity over the last 20 years.
'Europe is America's essential geopolitical bridgehead in Eurasia. America's stake in democratic Europe is enormous. Unlike America's links with Japan, NATO entrenches American political influence and military power on the Eurasian mainland. With the allied European nations still highly dependent on U.S. protection, any expansion of Europe's political scope is automatically an expansion of U.S. influence. Conversely, the United States' ability to project influence and power in Eurasia relies on close transatlantic ties.'
Incidentally, also on the seemingly unstoppable march of Turkey toward EU accession despite it being a tinpot dictatorship:
'America should use its influence in Europe to encourage Turkey's eventual admission to the EU'
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/1254548/posts
All these PB Remainers saying 'Ha - Canada' - just silliness. Canada is America's back garden. What America wants America gets, the same as all the other organisations and countries lining up for their tuppence worth. It's not disappointing because it's not surprising.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tourism
1. Adding more countries to the EU will become virtually impossible whilst UK is in the EU.
2. Any encroachment of power becomes subject to legal action to require another referendum so the UK Govt will be forced to oppose any and disuade the EU from trying it.
Having a UK inside the EU hamstrung by the positions REMAIN have taken might be worse for the EU than if we had left. Ironic?
A Conservative party in office with a small majority is just going to have to avoid these things for the rest of its time in power.
The 1% will end up with 99% of the wealth and 1% of the debt.
Landlines = leave
Mobiles = Remain
So, we don't have phones v online - we have mobiles v everything else
That's what happens when government pumps a trillion pounds of borrowed money into the economy in under a decade - it steadily flows out on overseas tourism and imported consumer tat.
I think it's fair to say, a lot more of the "1%" are teetering on the brink of bankruptcy (a la Robert Maxwell) than people realise.