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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The extraordinary public battle between two of the men behind the creation and success of YouGov

Once upon a time @PeterKellner1 & @StephanShaxper were the leading lights in YouGov. This morning a Twitter scrap… pic.twitter.com/NBUaGDVjC5

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Sandpit

First?

Pollster Wars!!

TheScreamingEagles

https://twitter.com/shadsy/status/733625163544186881

SimonStClare

Kellner v Shaxper - We need a poll to see which is right…!

rottenborough

2nd. Like Remain (but only online)

TheScreamingEagles

In the run up to the indyref, the bitch fight between YouGov and Survation was hysterical.

YouGov were wrong then.

TCPoliticalBetting

The roots? At the time Kellner was on TV denying that Yougov had got it wrong. Shakespeare was more honest.

Stephan Shakespeare @StephanShaxper
A terrible night for us pollsters. I apologise for a poor performance. We need to find out why.
11:17 p.m. - 7 May 2015

MarkHopkins

TheScreamingEagles said:

In the run up to the indyref, the bitch fight between YouGov and Survation was hysterical.

YouGov were wrong then.

Wrong then. Right now.

Maybe.

Stark_Dawning

FPT

Stark_Dawning said:

Scott_P said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Today's Cameron would have lost against Blair in 2001 and 2005

IDS would have lost against Gordo, and Ed.

Let's face it, IDS makes Corbyn look like the model of intellectualism and restraint. Quite why Leave were in raptures when he decided to appoint himself as their front man is a mystery. He's basically doing the same to the Brexit cause as he did to John Major and the Middle East. Everything he gets involved with he destroys.

TCPoliticalBetting

Today - was this the sequence?
1. Kellner wrote his article saying that phone polls were more reliable than online for the referendum.
2. Then Yougov posted their article analysing phone vs online for polls the ycpomiisioned for that purpose.
3. Shakespeare was prompted for a reaponse to Kellner's tweet and miaoooo.

GIN1138

FTP

SouthamObserver said:

Reading Leaver comments on here today I am struggling to see where John Major was wrong in his analysis. Putting personalities aside, where do UKIPers and Tory leavers disagree?
* They want to leave the EU.
* They are climate change sceptics.
* They want to substantially reduce immigration.
* They want to fundamentally change the NHS.
* They want to significantly cut public spending and taxes.
* They want to restructure the BBC.

What am I missing here?

1. Yes.

2. I'm "agnostic" on climate change (i.e climate is clearly changing and I'm open all explanations for why that should be)

3. I've always been extremely relaxed about immigration actually. I see Brexit as a sovereignty issue primarily.

4. Not at all. Have always been a big supporter of the NHS and it concerns me greatly to see the Posh Boys bankrupting it.

5. I want sound public finances.

6. I've changed my mind on BBC reform actually. I think they should probably leave it alone.

JackW

Somewhat like JackW against Sunil at the general election ....

Someone just didn't know their ARSE from their ELBOW ....

Richard_Tyndall

Stark_Dawning said:

FPT

Stark_Dawning said:

Scott_P said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Today's Cameron would have lost against Blair in 2001 and 2005

IDS would have lost against Gordo, and Ed.

Let's face it, IDS makes Corbyn look like the model of intellectualism and restraint. Quite why Leave were in raptures when he decided to appoint himself as their front man is a mystery. He's basically doing the same to the Brexit cause as he did to John Major and the Middle East. Everything he gets involved with he destroys.

Major destroyed himself. He has no one to blame but himself.

MaxPB

TCPoliticalBetting said:

The roots? At the time Kellner was on TV denying that Yougov had got it wrong. Shakespeare was more honest.

Stephan Shakespeare @StephanShaxper
A terrible night for us pollsters. I apologise for a poor performance. We need to find out why.
11:17 p.m. - 7 May 2015

I remember Kellner defending YouGov's "exit poll" after the real exit poll blew them out of the water.

TCPoliticalBetting

Is this what will break the EU and Turkey deal?

BBC Breaking News ‏@BBCBreaking 5m5 minutes ago
Turkish parliament approves controversial immunity bill, clearing way for possible prosecution of pro-Kurdish MPs

TCPoliticalBetting

MaxPB said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

The roots? At the time Kellner was on TV denying that Yougov had got it wrong. Shakespeare was more honest.

Stephan Shakespeare @StephanShaxper
A terrible night for us pollsters. I apologise for a poor performance. We need to find out why.
11:17 p.m. - 7 May 2015

I remember Kellner defending YouGov's "exit poll" after the real exit poll blew them out of the water.

He almost had a coronary doing it.

HYUFD

Richard_Tyndall said:

Stark_Dawning said:

FPT

Stark_Dawning said:

Scott_P said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Today's Cameron would have lost against Blair in 2001 and 2005

IDS would have lost against Gordo, and Ed.

Let's face it, IDS makes Corbyn look like the model of intellectualism and restraint. Quite why Leave were in raptures when he decided to appoint himself as their front man is a mystery. He's basically doing the same to the Brexit cause as he did to John Major and the Middle East. Everything he gets involved with he destroys.

Major destroyed himself. He has no one to blame but himself.

He won in 1992 though against the odds

TheScreamingEagles

I agree with Mike on Martin Boon.

TCPoliticalBetting

SouthamObserver said: (RESPONSE IN CAPS)
Reading Leaver comments on here today I am struggling to see where John Major was wrong in his analysis. Where do UKIPers and Tory leavers disagree?
* They want to leave the EU. AGREED
* They are climate change sceptics. SOME DO AND SOME DO NOT
* They want to substantially reduce immigration. SOME CONS 4LEAVE DO AND SOME DO NOT.
* They want to fundamentally change the NHS. A MINORITY WANT CHANGE IN UKIP AND CON LEAVE.
* They want to significantly cut public spending and taxes. SOME IN UKIP DO NOT.
* They want to restructure the BBC. SOME DO, SOME DO NOT.

FF43

Stephan Shakespeare is clearly the more skilled navigator of YouGov office politics. But is he right this time in saying only YouGov are calling EUReferendum correctly, thanks to educational level weightings?

Richard_Tyndall

HYUFD said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Stark_Dawning said:

FPT

Stark_Dawning said:

Scott_P said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Today's Cameron would have lost against Blair in 2001 and 2005

IDS would have lost against Gordo, and Ed.

Let's face it, IDS makes Corbyn look like the model of intellectualism and restraint. Quite why Leave were in raptures when he decided to appoint himself as their front man is a mystery. He's basically doing the same to the Brexit cause as he did to John Major and the Middle East. Everything he gets involved with he destroys.

Major destroyed himself. He has no one to blame but himself.

He won in 1992 though against the odds

But by then he had already sowed the seeds of his own destruction with the idiotic ERM entry and was planning on yet more imbecilic decisions with the Maastricht treaty which he then found himself moaning about when it turned out the EU had pulled a fast one on him.

He really was one of the dumbest PMs we have suffered under.

GIN1138

So with the NHS standing on the brink of bankruptcy can we say "Tim" was right on Lansley's Madness?

Pulpstar

MaxPB said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

The roots? At the time Kellner was on TV denying that Yougov had got it wrong. Shakespeare was more honest.

Stephan Shakespeare @StephanShaxper
A terrible night for us pollsters. I apologise for a poor performance. We need to find out why.
11:17 p.m. - 7 May 2015

I remember Kellner defending YouGov's "exit poll" after the real exit poll blew them out of the water.

Remember remember the GE2015 polling.

Labour overstated
Tories understated

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2015_United_Kingdom_general_election

Now which is more pro leave.

The truth contained in a Surveymonkey !! poll and a "hidden" survation poll...

^_~

I'm very happy with the 15-4 £20 I put on leave earlier. It is only a few % wrong if Stephen Fisher & Matt Singh's models are correct - they're both in essence relying on the polls though...

MaxPB

TCPoliticalBetting said:

Is this what will break the EU and Turkey deal?

BBC Breaking News ‏@BBCBreaking 5m5 minutes ago
Turkish parliament approves controversial immunity bill, clearing way for possible prosecution of pro-Kurdish MPs

Absolutely disgusting. If the EU don't cancel the deal and the €6bn bung then I'll lose what little remaining respect I have for these Eurocrats.

surbiton

GIN1138 said:

So with the NHS standing on the brink of bankruptcy can we say "Tim" was right on Lansley's Madness?

Yes. All is forgiven.

HYUFD

Richard_Tyndall said:

HYUFD said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Stark_Dawning said:

FPT

Stark_Dawning said:

Scott_P said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Today's Cameron would have lost against Blair in 2001 and 2005

IDS would have lost against Gordo, and Ed.

Let's face it, IDS makes Corbyn look like the model of intellectualism and restraint. Quite why Leave were in raptures when he decided to appoint himself as their front man is a mystery. He's basically doing the same to the Brexit cause as he did to John Major and the Middle East. Everything he gets involved with he destroys.

Major destroyed himself. He has no one to blame but himself.

He won in 1992 though against the odds

But by then he had already sowed the seeds of his own destruction with the idiotic ERM entry and was planning on yet more imbecilic decisions with the Maastricht treaty which he then found himself moaning about when it turned out the EU had pulled a fast one on him.

He really was one of the dumbest PMs we have suffered under.

He got us an opt out from the Euro and the Social Chapter and left a growing economy, we have had worse PMs

HYUFD

Pulpstar said:

MaxPB said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

The roots? At the time Kellner was on TV denying that Yougov had got it wrong. Shakespeare was more honest.

Stephan Shakespeare @StephanShaxper
A terrible night for us pollsters. I apologise for a poor performance. We need to find out why.
11:17 p.m. - 7 May 2015

I remember Kellner defending YouGov's "exit poll" after the real exit poll blew them out of the water.

Remember remember the GE2015 polling.

Labour overstated
Tories understated

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2015_United_Kingdom_general_election

Now which is more pro leave.

The truth contained in a Surveymonkey !! poll and a "hidden" survation poll...

^_~

I'm very happy with the 15-4 £20 I put on leave earlier. It is only a few % wrong if Stephen Fisher & Matt Singh's models are correct - they're both in essence relying on the polls though...

Online polls overestimated UKIP too though

Alistair

TheScreamingEagles said:

In the run up to the indyref, the bitch fight between YouGov and Survation was hysterical.

YouGov were wrong then.

15–17 Sep YouGov/The Times/The Sun 3,237 45% 49% 6%

Seems pretty good to me.

MaxPB

GIN1138 said:

So with the NHS standing on the brink of bankruptcy can we say "Tim" was right on Lansley's Madness?

Well the Lansley plan boiled down to paying redundancy to a bunch of PCT managers and then having GPC bodies rehire them on consultancy rates at a cost of a one off £3bn and an on going additional £1.5-2bn in consultancy costs. Mad indeed.

Alistair

Alistair said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

In the run up to the indyref, the bitch fight between YouGov and Survation was hysterical.

YouGov were wrong then.

15–17 Sep YouGov/The Times/The Sun 3,237 45% 49% 6%

Seems pretty good to me.

Definitely better than

16–17 Sep Survation/Daily Record 1,160 43% 48% 9%

Pulpstar

GIN1138 said:

So with the NHS standing on the brink of bankruptcy can we say "Tim" was right on Lansley's Madness?

The NHS can't really go bankrupt though - it'd be a political choice to create that scenario. Same as the state pension or any other Gov't spending.

Mortimer

Hahahaha!

The stupid DC Tessa Jowell photo on Abbey Road about 'creative industries' has already been used as a leave poster, with the tag line 'if only we'd been in the Eu in the sixties, the Beatles might have made it'

Sandpit

MaxPB said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

Is this what will break the EU and Turkey deal?

BBC Breaking News ‏@BBCBreaking 5m5 minutes ago
Turkish parliament approves controversial immunity bill, clearing way for possible prosecution of pro-Kurdish MPs

Absolutely disgusting. If the EU don't cancel the deal and the €6bn bung then I'll lose what little remaining respect I have for these Eurocrats.

It'll be conveniently not mentioned, in Merkel's haste to stop a few million more "refugees" turning up in Germany and Northern Europe over the summer.

TheScreamingEagles

Alistair said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

In the run up to the indyref, the bitch fight between YouGov and Survation was hysterical.

YouGov were wrong then.

15–17 Sep YouGov/The Times/The Sun 3,237 45% 49% 6%

Seems pretty good to me.

It was this I was thinking from July 2014 when YouGov were predicting a massive victory for No, whilst Survation had it a bit closer.

http://survation.com/response-to-yesterdays-times-yougov-articles-and-yougovs-published-research-about-survations-scottish-independence-methodology/

Theuniondivvie

TheScreamingEagles said:

In the run up to the indyref, the bitch fight between YouGov and Survation was hysterical.

YouGov were wrong then.

In what sense? The average winning margin for No in their polls in the last 6 weeks before the referendum was virtually identical, Yougov in fact slightly closer to the actual result.

MaxPB

Alistair said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

In the run up to the indyref, the bitch fight between YouGov and Survation was hysterical.

YouGov were wrong then.

15–17 Sep YouGov/The Times/The Sun 3,237 45% 49% 6%

Seems pretty good to me.

This is the poll that worries me most about the current campaign, we can see that all of the DKs fell into the "status quo" camp in the end, if the same happens this time it will be a Remain blow out.

HYUFD

MaxPB said:

Alistair said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

In the run up to the indyref, the bitch fight between YouGov and Survation was hysterical.

YouGov were wrong then.

15–17 Sep YouGov/The Times/The Sun 3,237 45% 49% 6%

Seems pretty good to me.

This is the poll that worries me most about the current campaign, we can see that all of the DKs fell into the "status quo" camp in the end, if the same happens this time it will be a Remain blow out.

That was the day before polling though, so DK's much smaller than now

TheScreamingEagles

Theuniondivvie said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

In the run up to the indyref, the bitch fight between YouGov and Survation was hysterical.

YouGov were wrong then.

In what sense? The average winning margin for No in their polls in the last 6 weeks before the referendum was virtually identical, Yougov in fact slightly closer to the actual result.

See my post by at 1.40pm

and this by YouGov/Kellner in July 2014

The test for us all will come in September. Meanwhile, what can we conclude about the state of the referendum campaign? This blog has necessarily been longer and more technical than normal. However, my conclusion is simple. A number of recent polls have produced widely-reported stories that the contest is close. They are wrong. It isn’t. The No campaign is well ahead. Its lead has held up for some months. Unless things change markedly in the next eleven weeks, Scotland will vote to remain in the United Kingdom, and by a decisive enough margin to settle the matter for many years to come.

https://yougov.co.uk/news/2014/07/01/why-do-polls-scotland-vary-so-much/

Sean_F

TCPoliticalBetting said:

SouthamObserver said: (RESPONSE IN CAPS)
Reading Leaver comments on here today I am struggling to see where John Major was wrong in his analysis. Where do UKIPers and Tory leavers disagree?
* They want to leave the EU. AGREED
* They are climate change sceptics. SOME DO AND SOME DO NOT
* They want to substantially reduce immigration. SOME CONS 4LEAVE DO AND SOME DO NOT.
* They want to fundamentally change the NHS. A MINORITY WANT CHANGE IN UKIP AND CON LEAVE.
* They want to significantly cut public spending and taxes. SOME IN UKIP DO NOT.
* They want to restructure the BBC. SOME DO, SOME DO NOT.

There are social differences between right wing Conservatives and supporters of UKIP, and right wing Conservatives are generally more right wing on economics than UKIP supporters.

HurstLlama

Pulpstar said:

GIN1138 said:

So with the NHS standing on the brink of bankruptcy can we say "Tim" was right on Lansley's Madness?

The NHS can't really go bankrupt though - it'd be a political choice to create that scenario. Same as the state pension or any other Gov't spending.

True, but what the NHS can do and, in my experience frequently does is run out of cash. It is amazing the number of operations/treatments scheduled towards the end of the financial year that get put back until April and beyond. All in all its best not get diagnosed with something in January/February when the money is running out.

Theuniondivvie

TheScreamingEagles said:

Alistair said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

In the run up to the indyref, the bitch fight between YouGov and Survation was hysterical.

YouGov were wrong then.

15–17 Sep YouGov/The Times/The Sun 3,237 45% 49% 6%

Seems pretty good to me.

It was this I was thinking from July 2014 when YouGov were predicting a massive victory for No, whilst Survation had it a bit closer.

http://survation.com/response-to-yesterdays-times-yougov-articles-and-yougovs-published-research-about-survations-scottish-independence-methodology/

Kelner's reverse ferret from 'it's all over' to 'too close to call' was certainly entertaining.

HYUFD

Sean_F said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

SouthamObserver said: (RESPONSE IN CAPS)
Reading Leaver comments on here today I am struggling to see where John Major was wrong in his analysis. Where do UKIPers and Tory leavers disagree?
* They want to leave the EU. AGREED
* They are climate change sceptics. SOME DO AND SOME DO NOT
* They want to substantially reduce immigration. SOME CONS 4LEAVE DO AND SOME DO NOT.
* They want to fundamentally change the NHS. A MINORITY WANT CHANGE IN UKIP AND CON LEAVE.
* They want to significantly cut public spending and taxes. SOME IN UKIP DO NOT.
* They want to restructure the BBC. SOME DO, SOME DO NOT.

There are social differences between right wing Conservatives and supporters of UKIP, and right wing Conservatives are generally more right wing on economics than UKIP supporters.

Indeed and Kippers are more socially conservative as a whole as you suggest

tlg86

HurstLlama said:

Pulpstar said:

GIN1138 said:

So with the NHS standing on the brink of bankruptcy can we say "Tim" was right on Lansley's Madness?

The NHS can't really go bankrupt though - it'd be a political choice to create that scenario. Same as the state pension or any other Gov't spending.

True, but what the NHS can do and, in my experience frequently does is run out of cash. It is amazing the number of operations/treatments scheduled towards the end of the financial year that get put back until April and beyond. All in all its best not get diagnosed with something in January/February when the money is running out.

Are you suggesting the Tories should be trying to create a 12 month NHS?

Theuniondivvie

Ashcroft latest.

http://tinyurl.com/holsmlu

'“Scaremongering”, Hitler, Boris (again), and the view from Scotland: referendum focus groups with 34 days to go

..The 2014 vote really had led to new levels of civic engagement (“People on Facebook who used to put up videos of themselves lighting their farts are now talking about politics”)'

Not sure why the two should be mutually exclusive.

Plato_Says

Mortimer said:

Hahahaha!

The stupid DC Tessa Jowell photo on Abbey Road about 'creative industries' has already been used as a leave poster, with the tag line 'if only we'd been in the Eu in the sixties, the Beatles might have made it'

HurstLlama

Sean_F said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

SouthamObserver said: (RESPONSE IN CAPS)
Reading Leaver comments on here today I am struggling to see where John Major was wrong in his analysis. Where do UKIPers and Tory leavers disagree?
* They want to leave the EU. AGREED
* They are climate change sceptics. SOME DO AND SOME DO NOT
* They want to substantially reduce immigration. SOME CONS 4LEAVE DO AND SOME DO NOT.
* They want to fundamentally change the NHS. A MINORITY WANT CHANGE IN UKIP AND CON LEAVE.
* They want to significantly cut public spending and taxes. SOME IN UKIP DO NOT.
* They want to restructure the BBC. SOME DO, SOME DO NOT.

There are social differences between right wing Conservatives and supporters of UKIP, and right wing Conservatives are generally more right wing on economics than UKIP supporters.

You are pigeon holeing people there, Mr. F and that is just identity politics under a different label. Not good.

Richard_Nabavi

Surely the main difference between Kippers and Eurosceptic/right-wing Tories is that the latter actually want to get into government so they can implement some of their policies?

Richard_Tyndall

HYUFD said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

HYUFD said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Stark_Dawning said:

FPT

Stark_Dawning said:

Scott_P said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Today's Cameron would have lost against Blair in 2001 and 2005

IDS would have lost against Gordo, and Ed.

Let's face it, IDS makes Corbyn look like the model of intellectualism and restraint. Quite why Leave were in raptures when he decided to appoint himself as their front man is a mystery. He's basically doing the same to the Brexit cause as he did to John Major and the Middle East. Everything he gets involved with he destroys.

Major destroyed himself. He has no one to blame but himself.

He won in 1992 though against the odds

But by then he had already sowed the seeds of his own destruction with the idiotic ERM entry and was planning on yet more imbecilic decisions with the Maastricht treaty which he then found himself moaning about when it turned out the EU had pulled a fast one on him.

He really was one of the dumbest PMs we have suffered under.

He got us an opt out from the Euro and the Social Chapter and left a growing economy, we have had worse PMs

An opt out on the social chapter that turned out to be nothing like he thought after the ECJ had done their dance. Kind of makes my point.

I can only assume it is senility that leads him to forget that little matter.

Scott_P

Richard_Nabavi said:

Surely the main difference between Kippers and Eurosceptic or right-wing Tories is that the latter actually want to get into government so they can implement some of their policies?

Apparently not. The Eurosceptic or right-wing Tories are implacably opposed to Cameron. For winning. Twice.

Slackbladder

Toby Young ‏@toadmeister 3 mins3 minutes ago

Rumour circulating that Guardian is about to announce closure of print operation. Henceforth digital only. Fits with @arusbridger’s exit.


ho ho ho .......

TheScreamingEagles

‏@StephanShaxper:.@MSmithsonPB I still love Peter, it's just he's obviously wrong, as the new evidence clearly shows. 2-day phone polls skew to the educated

@MSmithsonPB: . @StephanShaxper Your methodology change trimming back UKIP support in samples seems right as does your current 4% IN lead

Bob__Sykes

Richard_Nabavi said:

Surely the main difference between Kippers and Eurosceptic/right-wing Tories is that the latter actually want to get into government so they can implement some of their policies?

And presumably why the likes of Bill Cash have stayed loyal to the Tory cause, even if he could easily have been a founding Kipper.

One of the reasons I like and respect Bill Cash, even if he has occasional fruitcakey excursions....

Alanbrooke

Richard_Nabavi said:

Surely the main difference between Kippers and Eurosceptic/right-wing Tories is that the latter actually want to get into government so they can implement some of their policies?

After a joyous boat cruise on Loch Ness I come back to find you still griping that you can't convince people to the right of you.

MaxPB

Slackbladder said:

Toby Young ‏@toadmeister 3 mins3 minutes ago

Rumour circulating that Guardian is about to announce closure of print operation. Henceforth digital only. Fits with @arusbridger’s exit.


ho ho ho .......

That seems like a mental decision.

FrancisUrquhart

Slackbladder said:

Toby Young ‏@toadmeister 3 mins3 minutes ago

Rumour circulating that Guardian is about to announce closure of print operation. Henceforth digital only. Fits with @arusbridger’s exit.


ho ho ho .......

Given the OTT reaction to the Indy closing, if this happens there will be a week of mourning on the Beeb.

However, I will believe it when I see it, as the Guardian still has reserves to eat into if they want, and their online operation doesn't make money either, so not like they are closing loss making part of the biz to concentrate on the money making one.

Richard_Nabavi

Alanbrooke said:

After a joyous boat cruise on Loch Ness I come back to find you still griping that you can't convince people to the right of you.

I wasn't griping. I was praising.

Any update on how the monster is planning to vote?

Slackbladder

FrancisUrquhart said:

Slackbladder said:

Toby Young ‏@toadmeister 3 mins3 minutes ago

Rumour circulating that Guardian is about to announce closure of print operation. Henceforth digital only. Fits with @arusbridger’s exit.


ho ho ho .......

Given the OTT reaction to the Indy closing, if this happens there will be a week of mourning on the Beeb.

However, I will believe it when I see it, as the Guardian still has reserves to eat into if they want.

The Beeb will have to re-jig their paper reviews to include online stuff for....ah..'reasons'.

Plato_Says

https://twitter.com/PlatoSays/status/733626069740326912

richardDodd

What on earth will the BBC newsstaff read all morning

FrancisUrquhart

richardDodd said:

What on earth will the BBC newsstaff read all morning

The web version...will save them a few quid not having to buy in all those print copies.

Scott_P

Slackbladder said:

Toby Young ‏@toadmeister
Rumour circulating that Guardian is about to announce closure of print operation. Henceforth digital only. Fits with @arusbridger’s exit.

ho ho ho .......

@annemcelvoy: Analysis of print sales rarely deals w doggedly unfash titles. The "Oor Wullie" effect Guard169,424. Sun Post158,156 https://t.co/CNmV5XRTzf

Alanbrooke

Richard_Nabavi said:

Alanbrooke said:

After a joyous boat cruise on Loch Ness I come back to find you still griping that you can't convince people to the right of you.

I wasn't griping. I was praising.

Any update on how the monster is planning to vote?

Only Monster I saw was called Hosie whosie in a 3/4/5 some with some journalists and his expenses. It's a SNP scandal and they've all got their Nicolas in a twist.

HurstLlama

Scott_P said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Surely the main difference between Kippers and Eurosceptic or right-wing Tories is that the latter actually want to get into government so they can implement some of their policies?

Apparently not. The Eurosceptic or right-wing Tories are implacably opposed to Cameron. For winning. Twice.

But winning to what point or purpose, Mr. P? That is a question I hear from Conservatives who are not particularly right-wing or even Eurosceptic. What is the point of working to get a Conservative government elected when what you get is a continuation of what the last Labour government was doing?

NickPalmer

Entertaining Ashcroft focus groups:

http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2016/05/scaremongering-hitler-boris-again-and-the-view-from-scotland-referendum-focus-groups-with-34-days-to-go/

tlg86

At a GSS conference this week we had a talk from a statto who had been on secondment to the Guardian to get the media perspective on stats that government departments produced. She said that they have 19 people dedicated to producing charts and only they were allowed to make them.

HYUFD

FrancisUrquhart said:

Slackbladder said:

Toby Young ‏@toadmeister 3 mins3 minutes ago

Rumour circulating that Guardian is about to announce closure of print operation. Henceforth digital only. Fits with @arusbridger’s exit.


ho ho ho .......

Given the OTT reaction to the Indy closing, if this happens there will be a week of mourning on the Beeb.

However, I will believe it when I see it, as the Guardian still has reserves to eat into if they want, and their online operation doesn't make money either, so not like they are closing loss making part of the biz to concentrate on the money making one.

I imagine eventually at least part of the online paper will be subscription only, especially now Rusbridger is gone

TCPoliticalBetting

FrancisUrquhart said:

Slackbladder said:

Toby Young ‏@toadmeister 3 mins3 minutes ago

Rumour circulating that Guardian is about to announce closure of print operation. Henceforth digital only. Fits with @arusbridger’s exit.


ho ho ho .......

Given the OTT reaction to the Indy closing, if this happens there will be a week of mourning on the Beeb.

However, I will believe it when I see it, as the Guardian still has reserves to eat into if they want, and their online operation doesn't make money either, so not like they are closing loss making part of the biz to concentrate on the money making one.

Was it @arusbridger that backed that great idea to go for a special Berliner layout which prevented them re-selling the massive print facilities to others....
http://www.theguardian.com/gpc/berliner-format

Alanbrooke

HurstLlama said:

Scott_P said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Surely the main difference between Kippers and Eurosceptic or right-wing Tories is that the latter actually want to get into government so they can implement some of their policies?

Apparently not. The Eurosceptic or right-wing Tories are implacably opposed to Cameron. For winning. Twice.

But winning to what point or purpose, Mr. P? That is a question I hear from Conservatives who are not particularly right-wing or even Eurosceptic. What is the point of working to get a Conservative government elected is actually what you get is a continuation of what the last Labour government was doing?

And literally the last Government. A PM who wants power but doesn't know what to do with it and a continuity Brown as CoE.

Scott_P

HurstLlama said:

What is the point of working to get a Conservative government elected is actually what you get is a continuation of what the last Labour government was doing?

It's not.

If it were, Ed Miliband would be PM

richardDodd

According to some on PB..the taxpayer should just continue to pour endless amounts of money into the NHS..absolute nonsense..at the current rate of spend every penny raised in tax will go to the NHS and bugger the rest of the services...education,roads etc we would all be healthy but marooned and thick.

Alanbrooke

Scott_P said:

HurstLlama said:

What is the point of working to get a Conservative government elected is actually what you get is a continuation of what the last Labour government was doing?

It's not.

If it were, Ed Miliband would be PM

would we notice the difference ?

Scott_P

Alanbrooke said:

would we notice the difference ?

We wouldn't be having a referendum...

FrancisUrquhart

I know Toby is well connected, but seems strange that if he has the "scoop". The likes of Staines seems to always been ahead of the curve when it comes to inside track on Guardian hiring and firing etc.

Richard_Tyndall

Scott_P said:

HurstLlama said:

What is the point of working to get a Conservative government elected is actually what you get is a continuation of what the last Labour government was doing?

It's not.

If it were, Ed Miliband would be PM

Cameron is the heir to Blair and Osborne is Continuity Brown.

FrancisUrquhart

Bairstow showing the rest of the England lineup how you bat at Headingley.

logical_song

HurstLlama said:

Scott_P said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Surely the main difference between Kippers and Eurosceptic or right-wing Tories is that the latter actually want to get into government so they can implement some of their policies?

Apparently not. The Eurosceptic or right-wing Tories are implacably opposed to Cameron. For winning. Twice.

But winning to what point or purpose, Mr. P? That is a question I hear from Conservatives who are not particularly right-wing or even Eurosceptic. What is the point of working to get a Conservative government elected when what you get is a continuation of what the last Labour government was doing?

The mirror image of Labour and Tony Blair.
All parties should accept that PR using STV is the way forward. Stand for what you believe in rather than shoehorning yourself into one of the coalitions that are the Tory and Labour parties.

Alanbrooke

Scott_P said:

Alanbrooke said:

would we notice the difference ?

We wouldn't be having a referendum...

That's not much to go on really is it ?

same spend and borrow, little reform, unbalanced economy all with lashing of spin, bluff and infantile politics.

There's more to life than the referendum as Dave appears to have forgotten.

richardDodd

Guardian closing ..chaos in the Fish and Chip industry..what the hell will they use for wrapping paper

MaxPB

Richard_Tyndall said:

Scott_P said:

HurstLlama said:

What is the point of working to get a Conservative government elected is actually what you get is a continuation of what the last Labour government was doing?

It's not.

If it were, Ed Miliband would be PM

Cameron is the heir to Blair and Osborne is Continuity Brown.

If someone had showed me the economic stats for the last 6 years and not told me it was a Tory chancellor I would have believed Labour won in 2010 and Brown/Darling were still in charge.

Richard_Tyndall

richardDodd said:

According to some on PB..the taxpayer should just continue to pour endless amounts of money into the NHS..absolute nonsense..at the current rate of spend every penny raised in tax will go to the NHS and bugger the rest of the services...education,roads etc we would all be healthy but marooned and thick.

Sounds like a classic Cameron supporter.

Scott_P

Alanbrooke said:

There's more to life than the referendum

Not for Kippers

Richard_Nabavi

logical_song said:

HurstLlama said:

Scott_P said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Surely the main difference between Kippers and Eurosceptic or right-wing Tories is that the latter actually want to get into government so they can implement some of their policies?

Apparently not. The Eurosceptic or right-wing Tories are implacably opposed to Cameron. For winning. Twice.

But winning to what point or purpose, Mr. P? That is a question I hear from Conservatives who are not particularly right-wing or even Eurosceptic. What is the point of working to get a Conservative government elected when what you get is a continuation of what the last Labour government was doing?

The mirror image of Labour and Tony Blair.
All parties should accept that PR using STV is the way forward. Stand for what you believe in rather than shoehorning yourself into one of the coalitions that are the Tory and Labour parties.

And shoehorn yourself - if you are lucky - into some kind of incoherent coalition after the election with a rag-bag of directly contradictory aims chosen more or less at random, and for which precisely no-one voted.

Alanbrooke

Scott_P said:

Alanbrooke said:

There's more to life than the referendum

Not for Kippers

Havent you already told them to F off and don't come back ?

I suspect you'll find kippers have quite a large range of issues they find important too.

HurstLlama

Scott_P said:

HurstLlama said:

What is the point of working to get a Conservative government elected is actually what you get is a continuation of what the last Labour government was doing?

It's not.

If it were, Ed Miliband would be PM

Well, I am damned if I can see much more than a fag paper between the policies carried forward by Cameron and Co and those of the Blair/Brown era. The presentation is different, I grant you but the actual effects, maybe not so much. In fact in some areas I think the Cameron clique has rowed back from reforms being pushed by Blair/Brown.

Oh, and we do still have a structural deficit of how much? About £70bn a year isn't it?

MaxPB

What also worries me about the current Remain campaign is that if a Tory Leaver ever became PM, there may be enough, err, people in the Parliamentary party to cross the floor and lead a "unity government" or "grand coalition" that would ensure we stayed in the EU. Some MPs have shows that their loyalty doesn't lie with this country, but instead with Brussels. Obviously the PM doesn't fit that category, but there are some Tories who I'm beginning to wonder about.

Alanbrooke

Richard_Nabavi said:

logical_song said:

HurstLlama said:

Scott_P said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Surely the main difference between Kippers and Eurosceptic or right-wing Tories is that the latter actually want to get into government so they can implement some of their policies?

Apparently not. The Eurosceptic or right-wing Tories are implacably opposed to Cameron. For winning. Twice.

But winning to what point or purpose, Mr. P? That is a question I hear from Conservatives who are not particularly right-wing or even Eurosceptic. What is the point of working to get a Conservative government elected when what you get is a continuation of what the last Labour government was doing?

The mirror image of Labour and Tony Blair.
All parties should accept that PR using STV is the way forward. Stand for what you believe in rather than shoehorning yourself into one of the coalitions that are the Tory and Labour parties.

And shoehorn yourself - if you are lucky - into some kind of incoherent coalition after the election with a rag-bag of directly contradictory aims chosen more or less at random, and for which precisely no-one voted.

Well I can see how you wouldn't like the FPTP stranglehold broken, but at some point there will be another Labour Govt and then you'll do a volte face.

MaxPB

Alanbrooke said:

Scott_P said:

Alanbrooke said:

There's more to life than the referendum

Not for Kippers

Havent you already told them to F off and don't come back ?

I suspect you'll find kippers have quite a large range of issues they find important too.

He's not retwatting, which means he's having to engage his one brain cell, it doesn't normally work out very well for him.

JohnO

MaxPB said:

What also worries me about the current Remain campaign is that if a Tory Leaver ever became PM, there may be enough, err, people in the Parliamentary party to cross the floor and lead a "unity government" or "grand coalition" that would ensure we stayed in the EU. Some MPs have shows that their loyalty doesn't lie with this country, but instead with Brussels. Obviously the PM doesn't fit that category, but there are some Tories who I'm beginning to wonder about.

OK, doubtless Ken Clarke tops your list, but after him....?

Scott_P

@MrHarryCole: Farage blasts Vote Leave: "Stuck up people who rarely leave SW1. I'm not sure they want me to exist but who cares." https://t.co/HPfMXGIZ0S

Plato_Says

FrancisUrquhart said:

Slackbladder said:

Toby Young ‏@toadmeister 3 mins3 minutes ago

Rumour circulating that Guardian is about to announce closure of print operation. Henceforth digital only. Fits with @arusbridger’s exit.


ho ho ho .......

Given the OTT reaction to the Indy closing, if this happens there will be a week of mourning on the Beeb.

However, I will believe it when I see it, as the Guardian still has reserves to eat into if they want, and their online operation doesn't make money either, so not like they are closing loss making part of the biz to concentrate on the money making one.

All BBC programmes will be broadcast with a black border.

Scott_P

MaxPB said:

What also worries me about the current Remain campaign is that if a Tory Leaver ever became PM, there may be enough, err, people in the Parliamentary party to cross the floor and lead a "unity government" or "grand coalition" that would ensure we stayed in the EU.

Are you drunk?

MaxPB

JohnO said:

MaxPB said:

What also worries me about the current Remain campaign is that if a Tory Leaver ever became PM, there may be enough, err, people in the Parliamentary party to cross the floor and lead a "unity government" or "grand coalition" that would ensure we stayed in the EU. Some MPs have shows that their loyalty doesn't lie with this country, but instead with Brussels. Obviously the PM doesn't fit that category, but there are some Tories who I'm beginning to wonder about.

OK, doubtless Ken Clarke tops your list, but after him....?

Osborne.

Plato_Says

HurstLlama said:

Scott_P said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Surely the main difference between Kippers and Eurosceptic or right-wing Tories is that the latter actually want to get into government so they can implement some of their policies?

Apparently not. The Eurosceptic or right-wing Tories are implacably opposed to Cameron. For winning. Twice.

But winning to what point or purpose, Mr. P? That is a question I hear from Conservatives who are not particularly right-wing or even Eurosceptic. What is the point of working to get a Conservative government elected when what you get is a continuation of what the last Labour government was doing?

Quite.

Richard_Nabavi

Alanbrooke said:

Well I can see how you wouldn't like the FPTP stranglehold broken, but at some point there will be another Labour Govt and then you'll do a volte face.

No I won't. If and when (Allah forbid) we get another Labour government, under FPTP it can only be one which has built an internal coalition broad enough to include a wide range of voters in a wide range of constituencies. That will limit the damage.

JohnO

MaxPB said:

JohnO said:

MaxPB said:

What also worries me about the current Remain campaign is that if a Tory Leaver ever became PM, there may be enough, err, people in the Parliamentary party to cross the floor and lead a "unity government" or "grand coalition" that would ensure we stayed in the EU. Some MPs have shows that their loyalty doesn't lie with this country, but instead with Brussels. Obviously the PM doesn't fit that category, but there are some Tories who I'm beginning to wonder about.

OK, doubtless Ken Clarke tops your list, but after him....?

Osborne.

I guessed it would be. Sorry, mate, you are becoming seriously unhinged and I didn't think I would ever say that to you.

And to assuage your doomladen scenario. Not a chance. If Remain win comfortably, then it's quite possible, perhaps probable, that a Leave supporter will become party leader (e.g. if Gove were a candidate, I'd seriously think of giving him my vote). But the condition would have to be that he accepted the result of the referendum - the people's expressed will - and not seek to overturn it for a generation (as they say these days).

Such a PM would have the inestimable advantage of being up to stand robustly for the UK's interests within the EU.

Scott_P

@GdnPolitics: Tories to lose third of members to Ukip if UK stays in EU, says Farage https://t.co/TKrew2I3w0

Alanbrooke

Richard_Nabavi said:

Alanbrooke said:

Well I can see how you wouldn't like the FPTP stranglehold broken, but at some point there will be another Labour Govt and then you'll do a volte face.

No I won't. If and when (Allah forbid) we get another Labour government, under FPTP it can only be one which has built an internal coalition broad enough to include a wide range of voters in a wide range of constituencies. That will limit the damage.

chortle

I seem to remember Blair had quite a broad coalition.

He interpreted it as meaning he could do what he damned well liked.

Misplaced optimism Mr N.

FrancisUrquhart

Overhead in the BBC canteen...

"Have you seen that tweet from that tw@t Toby Young about the Guardian closing".

"Well that is clearly bollocks, everybody I know reads it".

FrancisUrquhart

Plato_Says said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Slackbladder said:

Toby Young ‏@toadmeister 3 mins3 minutes ago

Rumour circulating that Guardian is about to announce closure of print operation. Henceforth digital only. Fits with @arusbridger’s exit.


ho ho ho .......

Given the OTT reaction to the Indy closing, if this happens there will be a week of mourning on the Beeb.

However, I will believe it when I see it, as the Guardian still has reserves to eat into if they want, and their online operation doesn't make money either, so not like they are closing loss making part of the biz to concentrate on the money making one.

All BBC programmes will be broadcast with a black border.

A day of Guardian related special programming...

Norm

HurstLlama said:

Scott_P said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Surely the main difference between Kippers and Eurosceptic or right-wing Tories is that the latter actually want to get into government so they can implement some of their policies?

Apparently not. The Eurosceptic or right-wing Tories are implacably opposed to Cameron. For winning. Twice.

But winning to what point or purpose, Mr. P? That is a question I hear from Conservatives who are not particularly right-wing or even Eurosceptic. What is the point of working to get a Conservative government elected when what you get is a continuation of what the last Labour government was doing?

This is right. The unfortunate fact is both main parties are made up of a coalition beween careerists/opportunists/pragmatists and those with actually believe in some kind of conservatism or socialism. Unfortunately much of the hard grunt at least away from the metropolis is done by the latter group. Once you've pissed them off the party has problems. Labour have already experienced this hence Corbyn.

Pulpstar

Richard_Nabavi said:

Alanbrooke said:

Well I can see how you wouldn't like the FPTP stranglehold broken, but at some point there will be another Labour Govt and then you'll do a volte face.

No I won't. If and when (Allah forbid) we get another Labour government, under FPTP it can only be one which has built an internal coalition broad enough to include a wide range of voters in a wide range of constituencies. That will limit the damage.

No need to worry Richard, McDonnell will have the moderating influence of the SNP as he secures largest party status against George Osborne in 2025.