politicalbetting
Home› General

Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

Sign In Register

Categories

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The extraordinary public battle between two of the men behi

SystemSystem Posts: 12,267
edited May 2016 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The extraordinary public battle between two of the men behind the creation and success of YouGov

Once upon a time @PeterKellner1 & @StephanShaxper were the leading lights in YouGov. This morning a Twitter scrap… pic.twitter.com/NBUaGDVjC5

Read the full story here


«1345

Comments

  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,622
    edited May 2016
    First?

    Pollster Wars!!
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,429
    https://twitter.com/shadsy/status/733625163544186881
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    Kellner v Shaxper - We need a poll to see which is right…!
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,563
    2nd. Like Remain (but only online)
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,429
    In the run up to the indyref, the bitch fight between YouGov and Survation was hysterical.

    YouGov were wrong then.
  • TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    The roots? At the time Kellner was on TV denying that Yougov had got it wrong. Shakespeare was more honest.

    Stephan Shakespeare @StephanShaxper
    A terrible night for us pollsters. I apologise for a poor performance. We need to find out why.
    11:17 p.m. - 7 May 2015
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    In the run up to the indyref, the bitch fight between YouGov and Survation was hysterical.

    YouGov were wrong then.


    Wrong then. Right now.

    Maybe.

  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,765
    FPT
    Stark_Dawning said:

    Scott_P said:

    Richard_Tyndall said:

    Today's Cameron would have lost against Blair in 2001 and 2005

    IDS would have lost against Gordo, and Ed.
    Let's face it, IDS makes Corbyn look like the model of intellectualism and restraint. Quite why Leave were in raptures when he decided to appoint himself as their front man is a mystery. He's basically doing the same to the Brexit cause as he did to John Major and the Middle East. Everything he gets involved with he destroys.
  • TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    Today - was this the sequence?
    1. Kellner wrote his article saying that phone polls were more reliable than online for the referendum.
    2. Then Yougov posted their article analysing phone vs online for polls the ycpomiisioned for that purpose.
    3. Shakespeare was prompted for a reaponse to Kellner's tweet and miaoooo.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,451
    FTP
    SouthamObserver said:

    Reading Leaver comments on here today I am struggling to see where John Major was wrong in his analysis. Putting personalities aside, where do UKIPers and Tory leavers disagree?
    * They want to leave the EU.
    * They are climate change sceptics.
    * They want to substantially reduce immigration.
    * They want to fundamentally change the NHS.
    * They want to significantly cut public spending and taxes.
    * They want to restructure the BBC.

    What am I missing here?

    1. Yes.

    2. I'm "agnostic" on climate change (i.e climate is clearly changing and I'm open all explanations for why that should be)

    3. I've always been extremely relaxed about immigration actually. I see Brexit as a sovereignty issue primarily.

    4. Not at all. Have always been a big supporter of the NHS and it concerns me greatly to see the Posh Boys bankrupting it.

    5. I want sound public finances.

    6. I've changed my mind on BBC reform actually. I think they should probably leave it alone.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Somewhat like JackW against Sunil at the general election ....

    Someone just didn't know their ARSE from their ELBOW .... :smile:
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,726
    Stark_Dawning said:

    FPT

    Stark_Dawning said:

    Scott_P said:

    Richard_Tyndall said:

    Today's Cameron would have lost against Blair in 2001 and 2005

    IDS would have lost against Gordo, and Ed.
    Let's face it, IDS makes Corbyn look like the model of intellectualism and restraint. Quite why Leave were in raptures when he decided to appoint himself as their front man is a mystery. He's basically doing the same to the Brexit cause as he did to John Major and the Middle East. Everything he gets involved with he destroys.
    Major destroyed himself. He has no one to blame but himself.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,343
    TCPoliticalBetting said:

    The roots? At the time Kellner was on TV denying that Yougov had got it wrong. Shakespeare was more honest.

    Stephan Shakespeare @StephanShaxper
    A terrible night for us pollsters. I apologise for a poor performance. We need to find out why.
    11:17 p.m. - 7 May 2015

    I remember Kellner defending YouGov's "exit poll" after the real exit poll blew them out of the water.
  • TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    Is this what will break the EU and Turkey deal?

    BBC Breaking News ‏@BBCBreaking 5m5 minutes ago
    Turkish parliament approves controversial immunity bill, clearing way for possible prosecution of pro-Kurdish MPs
  • TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    MaxPB said:

    TCPoliticalBetting said:

    The roots? At the time Kellner was on TV denying that Yougov had got it wrong. Shakespeare was more honest.

    Stephan Shakespeare @StephanShaxper
    A terrible night for us pollsters. I apologise for a poor performance. We need to find out why.
    11:17 p.m. - 7 May 2015

    I remember Kellner defending YouGov's "exit poll" after the real exit poll blew them out of the water.
    He almost had a coronary doing it.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,734
    Richard_Tyndall said:

    Stark_Dawning said:

    FPT

    Stark_Dawning said:

    Scott_P said:

    Richard_Tyndall said:

    Today's Cameron would have lost against Blair in 2001 and 2005

    IDS would have lost against Gordo, and Ed.
    Let's face it, IDS makes Corbyn look like the model of intellectualism and restraint. Quite why Leave were in raptures when he decided to appoint himself as their front man is a mystery. He's basically doing the same to the Brexit cause as he did to John Major and the Middle East. Everything he gets involved with he destroys.
    Major destroyed himself. He has no one to blame but himself.
    He won in 1992 though against the odds
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,429
    I agree with Mike on Martin Boon.
  • TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    SouthamObserver said: (RESPONSE IN CAPS)
    Reading Leaver comments on here today I am struggling to see where John Major was wrong in his analysis. Where do UKIPers and Tory leavers disagree?
    * They want to leave the EU. AGREED
    * They are climate change sceptics. SOME DO AND SOME DO NOT
    * They want to substantially reduce immigration. SOME CONS 4LEAVE DO AND SOME DO NOT.
    * They want to fundamentally change the NHS. A MINORITY WANT CHANGE IN UKIP AND CON LEAVE.
    * They want to significantly cut public spending and taxes. SOME IN UKIP DO NOT.
    * They want to restructure the BBC. SOME DO, SOME DO NOT.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,428
    Stephan Shakespeare is clearly the more skilled navigator of YouGov office politics. But is he right this time in saying only YouGov are calling EUReferendum correctly, thanks to educational level weightings?
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,726
    HYUFD said:

    Richard_Tyndall said:

    Stark_Dawning said:

    FPT

    Stark_Dawning said:

    Scott_P said:

    Richard_Tyndall said:

    Today's Cameron would have lost against Blair in 2001 and 2005

    IDS would have lost against Gordo, and Ed.
    Let's face it, IDS makes Corbyn look like the model of intellectualism and restraint. Quite why Leave were in raptures when he decided to appoint himself as their front man is a mystery. He's basically doing the same to the Brexit cause as he did to John Major and the Middle East. Everything he gets involved with he destroys.
    Major destroyed himself. He has no one to blame but himself.
    He won in 1992 though against the odds
    But by then he had already sowed the seeds of his own destruction with the idiotic ERM entry and was planning on yet more imbecilic decisions with the Maastricht treaty which he then found himself moaning about when it turned out the EU had pulled a fast one on him.

    He really was one of the dumbest PMs we have suffered under.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,451
    So with the NHS standing on the brink of bankruptcy can we say "Tim" was right on Lansley's Madness? ;)
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,663
    MaxPB said:

    TCPoliticalBetting said:

    The roots? At the time Kellner was on TV denying that Yougov had got it wrong. Shakespeare was more honest.

    Stephan Shakespeare @StephanShaxper
    A terrible night for us pollsters. I apologise for a poor performance. We need to find out why.
    11:17 p.m. - 7 May 2015

    I remember Kellner defending YouGov's "exit poll" after the real exit poll blew them out of the water.
    Remember remember the GE2015 polling.

    Labour overstated
    Tories understated

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2015_United_Kingdom_general_election

    Now which is more pro leave.

    The truth contained in a Surveymonkey !! poll and a "hidden" survation poll...

    ^_~

    I'm very happy with the 15-4 £20 I put on leave earlier. It is only a few % wrong if Stephen Fisher & Matt Singh's models are correct - they're both in essence relying on the polls though...
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,343
    TCPoliticalBetting said:

    Is this what will break the EU and Turkey deal?

    BBC Breaking News ‏@BBCBreaking 5m5 minutes ago
    Turkish parliament approves controversial immunity bill, clearing way for possible prosecution of pro-Kurdish MPs

    Absolutely disgusting. If the EU don't cancel the deal and the €6bn bung then I'll lose what little remaining respect I have for these Eurocrats.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    GIN1138 said:

    So with the NHS standing on the brink of bankruptcy can we say "Tim" was right on Lansley's Madness? ;)

    Yes. All is forgiven.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,734
    Richard_Tyndall said:

    HYUFD said:

    Richard_Tyndall said:

    Stark_Dawning said:

    FPT

    Stark_Dawning said:

    Scott_P said:

    Richard_Tyndall said:

    Today's Cameron would have lost against Blair in 2001 and 2005

    IDS would have lost against Gordo, and Ed.
    Let's face it, IDS makes Corbyn look like the model of intellectualism and restraint. Quite why Leave were in raptures when he decided to appoint himself as their front man is a mystery. He's basically doing the same to the Brexit cause as he did to John Major and the Middle East. Everything he gets involved with he destroys.
    Major destroyed himself. He has no one to blame but himself.
    He won in 1992 though against the odds
    But by then he had already sowed the seeds of his own destruction with the idiotic ERM entry and was planning on yet more imbecilic decisions with the Maastricht treaty which he then found himself moaning about when it turned out the EU had pulled a fast one on him.

    He really was one of the dumbest PMs we have suffered under.
    He got us an opt out from the Euro and the Social Chapter and left a growing economy, we have had worse PMs
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,734
    Pulpstar said:

    MaxPB said:

    TCPoliticalBetting said:

    The roots? At the time Kellner was on TV denying that Yougov had got it wrong. Shakespeare was more honest.

    Stephan Shakespeare @StephanShaxper
    A terrible night for us pollsters. I apologise for a poor performance. We need to find out why.
    11:17 p.m. - 7 May 2015

    I remember Kellner defending YouGov's "exit poll" after the real exit poll blew them out of the water.
    Remember remember the GE2015 polling.

    Labour overstated
    Tories understated

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2015_United_Kingdom_general_election

    Now which is more pro leave.

    The truth contained in a Surveymonkey !! poll and a "hidden" survation poll...

    ^_~

    I'm very happy with the 15-4 £20 I put on leave earlier. It is only a few % wrong if Stephen Fisher & Matt Singh's models are correct - they're both in essence relying on the polls though...
    Online polls overestimated UKIP too though
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    In the run up to the indyref, the bitch fight between YouGov and Survation was hysterical.

    YouGov were wrong then.

    15–17 Sep YouGov/The Times/The Sun 3,237 45% 49% 6%

    Seems pretty good to me.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,343
    GIN1138 said:

    So with the NHS standing on the brink of bankruptcy can we say "Tim" was right on Lansley's Madness? ;)

    Well the Lansley plan boiled down to paying redundancy to a bunch of PCT managers and then having GPC bodies rehire them on consultancy rates at a cost of a one off £3bn and an on going additional £1.5-2bn in consultancy costs. Mad indeed.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Alistair said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    In the run up to the indyref, the bitch fight between YouGov and Survation was hysterical.

    YouGov were wrong then.

    15–17 Sep YouGov/The Times/The Sun 3,237 45% 49% 6%

    Seems pretty good to me.
    Definitely better than

    16–17 Sep Survation/Daily Record 1,160 43% 48% 9%
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,663
    GIN1138 said:

    So with the NHS standing on the brink of bankruptcy can we say "Tim" was right on Lansley's Madness? ;)

    The NHS can't really go bankrupt though - it'd be a political choice to create that scenario. Same as the state pension or any other Gov't spending.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,158
    Hahahaha!

    The stupid DC Tessa Jowell photo on Abbey Road about 'creative industries' has already been used as a leave poster, with the tag line 'if only we'd been in the Eu in the sixties, the Beatles might have made it'
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,622
    edited May 2016
    MaxPB said:

    TCPoliticalBetting said:

    Is this what will break the EU and Turkey deal?

    BBC Breaking News ‏@BBCBreaking 5m5 minutes ago
    Turkish parliament approves controversial immunity bill, clearing way for possible prosecution of pro-Kurdish MPs

    Absolutely disgusting. If the EU don't cancel the deal and the €6bn bung then I'll lose what little remaining respect I have for these Eurocrats.
    It'll be conveniently not mentioned, in Merkel's haste to stop a few million more "refugees" turning up in Germany and Northern Europe over the summer.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,429
    Alistair said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    In the run up to the indyref, the bitch fight between YouGov and Survation was hysterical.

    YouGov were wrong then.

    15–17 Sep YouGov/The Times/The Sun 3,237 45% 49% 6%

    Seems pretty good to me.
    It was this I was thinking from July 2014 when YouGov were predicting a massive victory for No, whilst Survation had it a bit closer.

    http://survation.com/response-to-yesterdays-times-yougov-articles-and-yougovs-published-research-about-survations-scottish-independence-methodology/
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,389
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    In the run up to the indyref, the bitch fight between YouGov and Survation was hysterical.

    YouGov were wrong then.

    In what sense? The average winning margin for No in their polls in the last 6 weeks before the referendum was virtually identical, Yougov in fact slightly closer to the actual result.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,343
    Alistair said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    In the run up to the indyref, the bitch fight between YouGov and Survation was hysterical.

    YouGov were wrong then.

    15–17 Sep YouGov/The Times/The Sun 3,237 45% 49% 6%

    Seems pretty good to me.
    This is the poll that worries me most about the current campaign, we can see that all of the DKs fell into the "status quo" camp in the end, if the same happens this time it will be a Remain blow out.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,734
    MaxPB said:

    Alistair said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    In the run up to the indyref, the bitch fight between YouGov and Survation was hysterical.

    YouGov were wrong then.

    15–17 Sep YouGov/The Times/The Sun 3,237 45% 49% 6%

    Seems pretty good to me.
    This is the poll that worries me most about the current campaign, we can see that all of the DKs fell into the "status quo" camp in the end, if the same happens this time it will be a Remain blow out.
    That was the day before polling though, so DK's much smaller than now
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,429
    edited May 2016
    Theuniondivvie said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    In the run up to the indyref, the bitch fight between YouGov and Survation was hysterical.

    YouGov were wrong then.

    In what sense? The average winning margin for No in their polls in the last 6 weeks before the referendum was virtually identical, Yougov in fact slightly closer to the actual result.
    See my post by at 1.40pm

    and this by YouGov/Kellner in July 2014

    The test for us all will come in September. Meanwhile, what can we conclude about the state of the referendum campaign? This blog has necessarily been longer and more technical than normal. However, my conclusion is simple. A number of recent polls have produced widely-reported stories that the contest is close. They are wrong. It isn’t. The No campaign is well ahead. Its lead has held up for some months. Unless things change markedly in the next eleven weeks, Scotland will vote to remain in the United Kingdom, and by a decisive enough margin to settle the matter for many years to come.

    https://yougov.co.uk/news/2014/07/01/why-do-polls-scotland-vary-so-much/
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,756
    TCPoliticalBetting said:

    SouthamObserver said: (RESPONSE IN CAPS)
    Reading Leaver comments on here today I am struggling to see where John Major was wrong in his analysis. Where do UKIPers and Tory leavers disagree?
    * They want to leave the EU. AGREED
    * They are climate change sceptics. SOME DO AND SOME DO NOT
    * They want to substantially reduce immigration. SOME CONS 4LEAVE DO AND SOME DO NOT.
    * They want to fundamentally change the NHS. A MINORITY WANT CHANGE IN UKIP AND CON LEAVE.
    * They want to significantly cut public spending and taxes. SOME IN UKIP DO NOT.
    * They want to restructure the BBC. SOME DO, SOME DO NOT.

    There are social differences between right wing Conservatives and supporters of UKIP, and right wing Conservatives are generally more right wing on economics than UKIP supporters.
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    Pulpstar said:

    GIN1138 said:

    So with the NHS standing on the brink of bankruptcy can we say "Tim" was right on Lansley's Madness? ;)

    The NHS can't really go bankrupt though - it'd be a political choice to create that scenario. Same as the state pension or any other Gov't spending.
    True, but what the NHS can do and, in my experience frequently does is run out of cash. It is amazing the number of operations/treatments scheduled towards the end of the financial year that get put back until April and beyond. All in all its best not get diagnosed with something in January/February when the money is running out.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,389
    edited May 2016
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Alistair said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    In the run up to the indyref, the bitch fight between YouGov and Survation was hysterical.

    YouGov were wrong then.

    15–17 Sep YouGov/The Times/The Sun 3,237 45% 49% 6%

    Seems pretty good to me.
    It was this I was thinking from July 2014 when YouGov were predicting a massive victory for No, whilst Survation had it a bit closer.

    http://survation.com/response-to-yesterdays-times-yougov-articles-and-yougovs-published-research-about-survations-scottish-independence-methodology/
    Kelner's reverse ferret from 'it's all over' to 'too close to call' was certainly entertaining.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,734
    Sean_F said:

    TCPoliticalBetting said:

    SouthamObserver said: (RESPONSE IN CAPS)
    Reading Leaver comments on here today I am struggling to see where John Major was wrong in his analysis. Where do UKIPers and Tory leavers disagree?
    * They want to leave the EU. AGREED
    * They are climate change sceptics. SOME DO AND SOME DO NOT
    * They want to substantially reduce immigration. SOME CONS 4LEAVE DO AND SOME DO NOT.
    * They want to fundamentally change the NHS. A MINORITY WANT CHANGE IN UKIP AND CON LEAVE.
    * They want to significantly cut public spending and taxes. SOME IN UKIP DO NOT.
    * They want to restructure the BBC. SOME DO, SOME DO NOT.

    There are social differences between right wing Conservatives and supporters of UKIP, and right wing Conservatives are generally more right wing on economics than UKIP supporters.
    Indeed and Kippers are more socially conservative as a whole as you suggest
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,312
    HurstLlama said:

    Pulpstar said:

    GIN1138 said:

    So with the NHS standing on the brink of bankruptcy can we say "Tim" was right on Lansley's Madness? ;)

    The NHS can't really go bankrupt though - it'd be a political choice to create that scenario. Same as the state pension or any other Gov't spending.
    True, but what the NHS can do and, in my experience frequently does is run out of cash. It is amazing the number of operations/treatments scheduled towards the end of the financial year that get put back until April and beyond. All in all its best not get diagnosed with something in January/February when the money is running out.
    Are you suggesting the Tories should be trying to create a 12 month NHS? :D
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,389
    Ashcroft latest.

    http://tinyurl.com/holsmlu

    '“Scaremongering”, Hitler, Boris (again), and the view from Scotland: referendum focus groups with 34 days to go

    ..The 2014 vote really had led to new levels of civic engagement (“People on Facebook who used to put up videos of themselves lighting their farts are now talking about politics”)'

    Not sure why the two should be mutually exclusive.
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Mortimer said:

    Hahahaha!

    The stupid DC Tessa Jowell photo on Abbey Road about 'creative industries' has already been used as a leave poster, with the tag line 'if only we'd been in the Eu in the sixties, the Beatles might have made it'

    :lol:
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    Sean_F said:

    TCPoliticalBetting said:

    SouthamObserver said: (RESPONSE IN CAPS)
    Reading Leaver comments on here today I am struggling to see where John Major was wrong in his analysis. Where do UKIPers and Tory leavers disagree?
    * They want to leave the EU. AGREED
    * They are climate change sceptics. SOME DO AND SOME DO NOT
    * They want to substantially reduce immigration. SOME CONS 4LEAVE DO AND SOME DO NOT.
    * They want to fundamentally change the NHS. A MINORITY WANT CHANGE IN UKIP AND CON LEAVE.
    * They want to significantly cut public spending and taxes. SOME IN UKIP DO NOT.
    * They want to restructure the BBC. SOME DO, SOME DO NOT.

    There are social differences between right wing Conservatives and supporters of UKIP, and right wing Conservatives are generally more right wing on economics than UKIP supporters.
    You are pigeon holeing people there, Mr. F and that is just identity politics under a different label. Not good.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    edited May 2016
    Surely the main difference between Kippers and Eurosceptic/right-wing Tories is that the latter actually want to get into government so they can implement some of their policies?
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,726
    HYUFD said:

    Richard_Tyndall said:

    HYUFD said:

    Richard_Tyndall said:

    Stark_Dawning said:

    FPT

    Stark_Dawning said:

    Scott_P said:

    Richard_Tyndall said:

    Today's Cameron would have lost against Blair in 2001 and 2005

    IDS would have lost against Gordo, and Ed.
    Let's face it, IDS makes Corbyn look like the model of intellectualism and restraint. Quite why Leave were in raptures when he decided to appoint himself as their front man is a mystery. He's basically doing the same to the Brexit cause as he did to John Major and the Middle East. Everything he gets involved with he destroys.
    Major destroyed himself. He has no one to blame but himself.
    He won in 1992 though against the odds
    But by then he had already sowed the seeds of his own destruction with the idiotic ERM entry and was planning on yet more imbecilic decisions with the Maastricht treaty which he then found himself moaning about when it turned out the EU had pulled a fast one on him.

    He really was one of the dumbest PMs we have suffered under.
    He got us an opt out from the Euro and the Social Chapter and left a growing economy, we have had worse PMs
    An opt out on the social chapter that turned out to be nothing like he thought after the ECJ had done their dance. Kind of makes my point.

    I can only assume it is senility that leads him to forget that little matter.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Surely the main difference between Kippers and Eurosceptic or right-wing Tories is that the latter actually want to get into government so they can implement some of their policies?

    Apparently not. The Eurosceptic or right-wing Tories are implacably opposed to Cameron. For winning. Twice.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,786
    Toby Young ‏@toadmeister 3 mins3 minutes ago

    Rumour circulating that Guardian is about to announce closure of print operation. Henceforth digital only. Fits with @arusbridger’s exit.


    ho ho ho .......
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,429
    ‏@StephanShaxper:.@MSmithsonPB I still love Peter, it's just he's obviously wrong, as the new evidence clearly shows. 2-day phone polls skew to the educated

    @MSmithsonPB: . @StephanShaxper Your methodology change trimming back UKIP support in samples seems right as does your current 4% IN lead
  • Bob__SykesBob__Sykes Posts: 1,179
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Surely the main difference between Kippers and Eurosceptic/right-wing Tories is that the latter actually want to get into government so they can implement some of their policies?

    And presumably why the likes of Bill Cash have stayed loyal to the Tory cause, even if he could easily have been a founding Kipper.

    One of the reasons I like and respect Bill Cash, even if he has occasional fruitcakey excursions....

  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,714
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Surely the main difference between Kippers and Eurosceptic/right-wing Tories is that the latter actually want to get into government so they can implement some of their policies?


    After a joyous boat cruise on Loch Ness I come back to find you still griping that you can't convince people to the right of you.

  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,343
    Slackbladder said:

    Toby Young ‏@toadmeister 3 mins3 minutes ago

    Rumour circulating that Guardian is about to announce closure of print operation. Henceforth digital only. Fits with @arusbridger’s exit.


    ho ho ho .......

    That seems like a mental decision.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,554
    edited May 2016
    Slackbladder said:

    Toby Young ‏@toadmeister 3 mins3 minutes ago

    Rumour circulating that Guardian is about to announce closure of print operation. Henceforth digital only. Fits with @arusbridger’s exit.


    ho ho ho .......

    Given the OTT reaction to the Indy closing, if this happens there will be a week of mourning on the Beeb.

    However, I will believe it when I see it, as the Guardian still has reserves to eat into if they want, and their online operation doesn't make money either, so not like they are closing loss making part of the biz to concentrate on the money making one.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    Alanbrooke said:

    After a joyous boat cruise on Loch Ness I come back to find you still griping that you can't convince people to the right of you.

    I wasn't griping. I was praising.

    Any update on how the monster is planning to vote?
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,786
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Slackbladder said:

    Toby Young ‏@toadmeister 3 mins3 minutes ago

    Rumour circulating that Guardian is about to announce closure of print operation. Henceforth digital only. Fits with @arusbridger’s exit.


    ho ho ho .......

    Given the OTT reaction to the Indy closing, if this happens there will be a week of mourning on the Beeb.

    However, I will believe it when I see it, as the Guardian still has reserves to eat into if they want.
    The Beeb will have to re-jig their paper reviews to include online stuff for....ah..'reasons'.
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    https://twitter.com/PlatoSays/status/733626069740326912
  • richardDoddrichardDodd Posts: 5,472
    What on earth will the BBC newsstaff read all morning
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,554
    edited May 2016
    richardDodd said:

    What on earth will the BBC newsstaff read all morning

    The web version...will save them a few quid not having to buy in all those print copies.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Slackbladder said:

    Toby Young ‏@toadmeister
    Rumour circulating that Guardian is about to announce closure of print operation. Henceforth digital only. Fits with @arusbridger’s exit.

    ho ho ho .......

    @annemcelvoy: Analysis of print sales rarely deals w doggedly unfash titles. The "Oor Wullie" effect Guard169,424. Sun Post158,156 https://t.co/CNmV5XRTzf
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,714
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    After a joyous boat cruise on Loch Ness I come back to find you still griping that you can't convince people to the right of you.

    I wasn't griping. I was praising.

    Any update on how the monster is planning to vote?
    Only Monster I saw was called Hosie whosie in a 3/4/5 some with some journalists and his expenses. It's a SNP scandal and they've all got their Nicolas in a twist.
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    edited May 2016
    Scott_P said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Surely the main difference between Kippers and Eurosceptic or right-wing Tories is that the latter actually want to get into government so they can implement some of their policies?

    Apparently not. The Eurosceptic or right-wing Tories are implacably opposed to Cameron. For winning. Twice.
    But winning to what point or purpose, Mr. P? That is a question I hear from Conservatives who are not particularly right-wing or even Eurosceptic. What is the point of working to get a Conservative government elected when what you get is a continuation of what the last Labour government was doing?
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,587
    Entertaining Ashcroft focus groups:

    http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2016/05/scaremongering-hitler-boris-again-and-the-view-from-scotland-referendum-focus-groups-with-34-days-to-go/
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,312
    At a GSS conference this week we had a talk from a statto who had been on secondment to the Guardian to get the media perspective on stats that government departments produced. She said that they have 19 people dedicated to producing charts and only they were allowed to make them.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,734
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Slackbladder said:

    Toby Young ‏@toadmeister 3 mins3 minutes ago

    Rumour circulating that Guardian is about to announce closure of print operation. Henceforth digital only. Fits with @arusbridger’s exit.


    ho ho ho .......

    Given the OTT reaction to the Indy closing, if this happens there will be a week of mourning on the Beeb.

    However, I will believe it when I see it, as the Guardian still has reserves to eat into if they want, and their online operation doesn't make money either, so not like they are closing loss making part of the biz to concentrate on the money making one.
    I imagine eventually at least part of the online paper will be subscription only, especially now Rusbridger is gone
  • TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Slackbladder said:

    Toby Young ‏@toadmeister 3 mins3 minutes ago

    Rumour circulating that Guardian is about to announce closure of print operation. Henceforth digital only. Fits with @arusbridger’s exit.


    ho ho ho .......

    Given the OTT reaction to the Indy closing, if this happens there will be a week of mourning on the Beeb.

    However, I will believe it when I see it, as the Guardian still has reserves to eat into if they want, and their online operation doesn't make money either, so not like they are closing loss making part of the biz to concentrate on the money making one.
    Was it @arusbridger that backed that great idea to go for a special Berliner layout which prevented them re-selling the massive print facilities to others....
    http://www.theguardian.com/gpc/berliner-format
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,714
    HurstLlama said:

    Scott_P said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Surely the main difference between Kippers and Eurosceptic or right-wing Tories is that the latter actually want to get into government so they can implement some of their policies?

    Apparently not. The Eurosceptic or right-wing Tories are implacably opposed to Cameron. For winning. Twice.
    But winning to what point or purpose, Mr. P? That is a question I hear from Conservatives who are not particularly right-wing or even Eurosceptic. What is the point of working to get a Conservative government elected is actually what you get is a continuation of what the last Labour government was doing?
    And literally the last Government. A PM who wants power but doesn't know what to do with it and a continuity Brown as CoE.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    HurstLlama said:

    What is the point of working to get a Conservative government elected is actually what you get is a continuation of what the last Labour government was doing?

    It's not.

    If it were, Ed Miliband would be PM
  • richardDoddrichardDodd Posts: 5,472
    edited May 2016
    According to some on PB..the taxpayer should just continue to pour endless amounts of money into the NHS..absolute nonsense..at the current rate of spend every penny raised in tax will go to the NHS and bugger the rest of the services...education,roads etc we would all be healthy but marooned and thick.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,714
    Scott_P said:

    HurstLlama said:

    What is the point of working to get a Conservative government elected is actually what you get is a continuation of what the last Labour government was doing?

    It's not.

    If it were, Ed Miliband would be PM
    would we notice the difference ?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Alanbrooke said:

    would we notice the difference ?

    We wouldn't be having a referendum...
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,554
    I know Toby is well connected, but seems strange that if he has the "scoop". The likes of Staines seems to always been ahead of the curve when it comes to inside track on Guardian hiring and firing etc.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,726
    Scott_P said:

    HurstLlama said:

    What is the point of working to get a Conservative government elected is actually what you get is a continuation of what the last Labour government was doing?

    It's not.

    If it were, Ed Miliband would be PM
    Cameron is the heir to Blair and Osborne is Continuity Brown.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,554
    Bairstow showing the rest of the England lineup how you bat at Headingley.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,944
    HurstLlama said:

    Scott_P said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Surely the main difference between Kippers and Eurosceptic or right-wing Tories is that the latter actually want to get into government so they can implement some of their policies?

    Apparently not. The Eurosceptic or right-wing Tories are implacably opposed to Cameron. For winning. Twice.
    But winning to what point or purpose, Mr. P? That is a question I hear from Conservatives who are not particularly right-wing or even Eurosceptic. What is the point of working to get a Conservative government elected when what you get is a continuation of what the last Labour government was doing?
    The mirror image of Labour and Tony Blair.
    All parties should accept that PR using STV is the way forward. Stand for what you believe in rather than shoehorning yourself into one of the coalitions that are the Tory and Labour parties.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,714
    edited May 2016
    Scott_P said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    would we notice the difference ?

    We wouldn't be having a referendum...
    That's not much to go on really is it ?

    same spend and borrow, little reform, unbalanced economy all with lashing of spin, bluff and infantile politics.

    There's more to life than the referendum as Dave appears to have forgotten.
  • richardDoddrichardDodd Posts: 5,472
    Guardian closing ..chaos in the Fish and Chip industry..what the hell will they use for wrapping paper
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,343
    Richard_Tyndall said:

    Scott_P said:

    HurstLlama said:

    What is the point of working to get a Conservative government elected is actually what you get is a continuation of what the last Labour government was doing?

    It's not.

    If it were, Ed Miliband would be PM
    Cameron is the heir to Blair and Osborne is Continuity Brown.
    If someone had showed me the economic stats for the last 6 years and not told me it was a Tory chancellor I would have believed Labour won in 2010 and Brown/Darling were still in charge.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,726
    richardDodd said:

    According to some on PB..the taxpayer should just continue to pour endless amounts of money into the NHS..absolute nonsense..at the current rate of spend every penny raised in tax will go to the NHS and bugger the rest of the services...education,roads etc we would all be healthy but marooned and thick.

    Sounds like a classic Cameron supporter.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Alanbrooke said:

    There's more to life than the referendum

    Not for Kippers
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    logical_song said:

    HurstLlama said:

    Scott_P said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Surely the main difference between Kippers and Eurosceptic or right-wing Tories is that the latter actually want to get into government so they can implement some of their policies?

    Apparently not. The Eurosceptic or right-wing Tories are implacably opposed to Cameron. For winning. Twice.
    But winning to what point or purpose, Mr. P? That is a question I hear from Conservatives who are not particularly right-wing or even Eurosceptic. What is the point of working to get a Conservative government elected when what you get is a continuation of what the last Labour government was doing?
    The mirror image of Labour and Tony Blair.
    All parties should accept that PR using STV is the way forward. Stand for what you believe in rather than shoehorning yourself into one of the coalitions that are the Tory and Labour parties.
    And shoehorn yourself - if you are lucky - into some kind of incoherent coalition after the election with a rag-bag of directly contradictory aims chosen more or less at random, and for which precisely no-one voted.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,714
    Scott_P said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    There's more to life than the referendum

    Not for Kippers
    Havent you already told them to F off and don't come back ?

    I suspect you'll find kippers have quite a large range of issues they find important too.
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    Scott_P said:

    HurstLlama said:

    What is the point of working to get a Conservative government elected is actually what you get is a continuation of what the last Labour government was doing?

    It's not.

    If it were, Ed Miliband would be PM
    Well, I am damned if I can see much more than a fag paper between the policies carried forward by Cameron and Co and those of the Blair/Brown era. The presentation is different, I grant you but the actual effects, maybe not so much. In fact in some areas I think the Cameron clique has rowed back from reforms being pushed by Blair/Brown.

    Oh, and we do still have a structural deficit of how much? About £70bn a year isn't it?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,343
    What also worries me about the current Remain campaign is that if a Tory Leaver ever became PM, there may be enough, err, people in the Parliamentary party to cross the floor and lead a "unity government" or "grand coalition" that would ensure we stayed in the EU. Some MPs have shows that their loyalty doesn't lie with this country, but instead with Brussels. Obviously the PM doesn't fit that category, but there are some Tories who I'm beginning to wonder about.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,714
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    logical_song said:

    HurstLlama said:

    Scott_P said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Surely the main difference between Kippers and Eurosceptic or right-wing Tories is that the latter actually want to get into government so they can implement some of their policies?

    Apparently not. The Eurosceptic or right-wing Tories are implacably opposed to Cameron. For winning. Twice.
    But winning to what point or purpose, Mr. P? That is a question I hear from Conservatives who are not particularly right-wing or even Eurosceptic. What is the point of working to get a Conservative government elected when what you get is a continuation of what the last Labour government was doing?
    The mirror image of Labour and Tony Blair.
    All parties should accept that PR using STV is the way forward. Stand for what you believe in rather than shoehorning yourself into one of the coalitions that are the Tory and Labour parties.
    And shoehorn yourself - if you are lucky - into some kind of incoherent coalition after the election with a rag-bag of directly contradictory aims chosen more or less at random, and for which precisely no-one voted.
    Well I can see how you wouldn't like the FPTP stranglehold broken, but at some point there will be another Labour Govt and then you'll do a volte face.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,343
    Alanbrooke said:

    Scott_P said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    There's more to life than the referendum

    Not for Kippers
    Havent you already told them to F off and don't come back ?

    I suspect you'll find kippers have quite a large range of issues they find important too.
    He's not retwatting, which means he's having to engage his one brain cell, it doesn't normally work out very well for him.
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,295
    MaxPB said:

    What also worries me about the current Remain campaign is that if a Tory Leaver ever became PM, there may be enough, err, people in the Parliamentary party to cross the floor and lead a "unity government" or "grand coalition" that would ensure we stayed in the EU. Some MPs have shows that their loyalty doesn't lie with this country, but instead with Brussels. Obviously the PM doesn't fit that category, but there are some Tories who I'm beginning to wonder about.

    OK, doubtless Ken Clarke tops your list, but after him....?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @MrHarryCole: Farage blasts Vote Leave: "Stuck up people who rarely leave SW1. I'm not sure they want me to exist but who cares." https://t.co/HPfMXGIZ0S
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Slackbladder said:

    Toby Young ‏@toadmeister 3 mins3 minutes ago

    Rumour circulating that Guardian is about to announce closure of print operation. Henceforth digital only. Fits with @arusbridger’s exit.


    ho ho ho .......

    Given the OTT reaction to the Indy closing, if this happens there will be a week of mourning on the Beeb.

    However, I will believe it when I see it, as the Guardian still has reserves to eat into if they want, and their online operation doesn't make money either, so not like they are closing loss making part of the biz to concentrate on the money making one.
    All BBC programmes will be broadcast with a black border.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    MaxPB said:

    What also worries me about the current Remain campaign is that if a Tory Leaver ever became PM, there may be enough, err, people in the Parliamentary party to cross the floor and lead a "unity government" or "grand coalition" that would ensure we stayed in the EU.

    Are you drunk?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,343
    JohnO said:

    MaxPB said:

    What also worries me about the current Remain campaign is that if a Tory Leaver ever became PM, there may be enough, err, people in the Parliamentary party to cross the floor and lead a "unity government" or "grand coalition" that would ensure we stayed in the EU. Some MPs have shows that their loyalty doesn't lie with this country, but instead with Brussels. Obviously the PM doesn't fit that category, but there are some Tories who I'm beginning to wonder about.

    OK, doubtless Ken Clarke tops your list, but after him....?
    Osborne.
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    HurstLlama said:

    Scott_P said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Surely the main difference between Kippers and Eurosceptic or right-wing Tories is that the latter actually want to get into government so they can implement some of their policies?

    Apparently not. The Eurosceptic or right-wing Tories are implacably opposed to Cameron. For winning. Twice.
    But winning to what point or purpose, Mr. P? That is a question I hear from Conservatives who are not particularly right-wing or even Eurosceptic. What is the point of working to get a Conservative government elected when what you get is a continuation of what the last Labour government was doing?
    Quite.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    Alanbrooke said:

    Well I can see how you wouldn't like the FPTP stranglehold broken, but at some point there will be another Labour Govt and then you'll do a volte face.

    No I won't. If and when (Allah forbid) we get another Labour government, under FPTP it can only be one which has built an internal coalition broad enough to include a wide range of voters in a wide range of constituencies. That will limit the damage.
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,295
    edited May 2016
    MaxPB said:

    JohnO said:

    MaxPB said:

    What also worries me about the current Remain campaign is that if a Tory Leaver ever became PM, there may be enough, err, people in the Parliamentary party to cross the floor and lead a "unity government" or "grand coalition" that would ensure we stayed in the EU. Some MPs have shows that their loyalty doesn't lie with this country, but instead with Brussels. Obviously the PM doesn't fit that category, but there are some Tories who I'm beginning to wonder about.

    OK, doubtless Ken Clarke tops your list, but after him....?
    Osborne.
    I guessed it would be. Sorry, mate, you are becoming seriously unhinged and I didn't think I would ever say that to you.

    And to assuage your doomladen scenario. Not a chance. If Remain win comfortably, then it's quite possible, perhaps probable, that a Leave supporter will become party leader (e.g. if Gove were a candidate, I'd seriously think of giving him my vote). But the condition would have to be that he accepted the result of the referendum - the people's expressed will - and not seek to overturn it for a generation (as they say these days).

    Such a PM would have the inestimable advantage of being up to stand robustly for the UK's interests within the EU.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @GdnPolitics: Tories to lose third of members to Ukip if UK stays in EU, says Farage https://t.co/TKrew2I3w0
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,714
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    Well I can see how you wouldn't like the FPTP stranglehold broken, but at some point there will be another Labour Govt and then you'll do a volte face.

    No I won't. If and when (Allah forbid) we get another Labour government, under FPTP it can only be one which has built an internal coalition broad enough to include a wide range of voters in a wide range of constituencies. That will limit the damage.
    chortle

    I seem to remember Blair had quite a broad coalition.

    He interpreted it as meaning he could do what he damned well liked.

    Misplaced optimism Mr N.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,554
    Overhead in the BBC canteen...

    "Have you seen that tweet from that tw@t Toby Young about the Guardian closing".

    "Well that is clearly bollocks, everybody I know reads it".
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,554
    Plato_Says said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Slackbladder said:

    Toby Young ‏@toadmeister 3 mins3 minutes ago

    Rumour circulating that Guardian is about to announce closure of print operation. Henceforth digital only. Fits with @arusbridger’s exit.


    ho ho ho .......

    Given the OTT reaction to the Indy closing, if this happens there will be a week of mourning on the Beeb.

    However, I will believe it when I see it, as the Guardian still has reserves to eat into if they want, and their online operation doesn't make money either, so not like they are closing loss making part of the biz to concentrate on the money making one.
    All BBC programmes will be broadcast with a black border.
    A day of Guardian related special programming...
  • NormNorm Posts: 1,251
    HurstLlama said:

    Scott_P said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Surely the main difference between Kippers and Eurosceptic or right-wing Tories is that the latter actually want to get into government so they can implement some of their policies?

    Apparently not. The Eurosceptic or right-wing Tories are implacably opposed to Cameron. For winning. Twice.
    But winning to what point or purpose, Mr. P? That is a question I hear from Conservatives who are not particularly right-wing or even Eurosceptic. What is the point of working to get a Conservative government elected when what you get is a continuation of what the last Labour government was doing?
    This is right. The unfortunate fact is both main parties are made up of a coalition beween careerists/opportunists/pragmatists and those with actually believe in some kind of conservatism or socialism. Unfortunately much of the hard grunt at least away from the metropolis is done by the latter group. Once you've pissed them off the party has problems. Labour have already experienced this hence Corbyn.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,663
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    Well I can see how you wouldn't like the FPTP stranglehold broken, but at some point there will be another Labour Govt and then you'll do a volte face.

    No I won't. If and when (Allah forbid) we get another Labour government, under FPTP it can only be one which has built an internal coalition broad enough to include a wide range of voters in a wide range of constituencies. That will limit the damage.
    No need to worry Richard, McDonnell will have the moderating influence of the SNP as he secures largest party status against George Osborne in 2025.
This discussion has been closed.