The passenger manifest for MS804 contained no known names on current terror watch lists, three European security officials have said, according to the Associated Press news agency.
Interesting update. Moves the likely scenario towards a planted bomb rather than some sort of unlawful interference.
I also hope they're scrutinising the manifests from previous flights of the aircraft, it's a short haul aircraft making several flights a day, it visited Brussles, Asmara and Tunis (all out and return from Cairo) in the 24 hours before the accident. https://www.flightradar24.com/data/aircraft/su-gcc
@rowenamason: Senior remain source on Vote Leave Turkey video: "Gove may be mouthing the words, but Farage is writing the tune" https://t.co/OkWKXdnk48
@rafaelbehr: Gove more liberal than most Tory MPs on immigration. He resisted May's hard line in cabinet. He's demeaning himself with this ukippy script.
"Movements such as Why is My Curriculum White? and Rhodes Must Fall show that students are tired of some of the unrepresentative and outdated knowledge and experiences being reproduced in British universities. And when students cannot relate to the subject matter of the courses they become alienated and disinterested."
"Movements such as Why is My Curriculum White? and Rhodes Must Fall show that students are tired of some of the unrepresentative and outdated knowledge and experiences being reproduced in British universities. And when students cannot relate to the subject matter of the courses they become alienated and disinterested."
Birmingham City University (BCU) - that will be the highly rated (by highly I mean ~90th best uni) otherwise known as Brum Poly...
Enroll here for Black Studies at BCU for a future career in a call centre, with free added chip on your shoulder about how racist the world is.
Mr. P, only an anecdote, but Turkey potentially joining was cited by the only one of my mother's friends to be a definite Leaver as the reason why (the friend is a former Lib Dem voter. A sort of sensible lefty, not unlike Mr. Observer).
Turkey isn't a worry just for naturally Kippers or the right side of the Conservatives.
Just had our pink notices for the referendum confirming the postal votes will be with us around 3rd June. So just over two weeks to postal votes going in.
RO's office at my local council say they have been inundated with queries, registrations and PV applications. Looks like there is a high level of interest which suggests turnout will be high.
"Movements such as Why is My Curriculum White? and Rhodes Must Fall show that students are tired of some of the unrepresentative and outdated knowledge and experiences being reproduced in British universities. And when students cannot relate to the subject matter of the courses they become alienated and disinterested."
Students choose wrong course - blame chosen universirty.
@rowenamason: Senior remain source on Vote Leave Turkey video: "Gove may be mouthing the words, but Farage is writing the tune" https://t.co/OkWKXdnk48
@rafaelbehr: Gove more liberal than most Tory MPs on immigration. He resisted May's hard line in cabinet. He's demeaning himself with this ukippy script.
Sad you have taken to parroting Guardian journalists to support your case.
@rowenamason: Senior remain source on Vote Leave Turkey video: "Gove may be mouthing the words, but Farage is writing the tune" https://t.co/OkWKXdnk48
@rafaelbehr: Gove more liberal than most Tory MPs on immigration. He resisted May's hard line in cabinet. He's demeaning himself with this ukippy script.
Sad you have taken to parroting Guardian journalists to support your case.
"Households will be paying £100 more for their annual bills within five years to fund four government policies designed to keep the lights on and support low-carbon electricity, according to a review."
"Households will be paying £100 more for their annual bills within five years to fund four government policies designed to keep the lights on and support low-carbon electricity, according to a review."
Can't blame Ed Davey any more - 100% Tory DECC.
Tories a bit too airy fairy lefty greeny for you on this one @SandyRentool ?
You're right though, this could have come straight from Ed Davey. Or Ed Miliband even
"Households will be paying £100 more for their annual bills within five years to fund four government policies designed to keep the lights on and support low-carbon electricity, according to a review."
Can't blame Ed Davey any more - 100% Tory DECC.
Tories a bit too airy fairy lefty greeny for you on this one @SandyRentool ?
You're right though, this could have come straight from Ed Davey. Or Ed Miliband even
It isn't the 'green crap' I object to - it is the capacity market nonsense that is just giving money to high-emissions generators, rather than encouraging load-shedding.
Its all out war for the pollsters. One or more of them might be finished, reputationally, after this.
Well, YouGov are saying Leave is winning at the moment, but then says: "we still believe Remain will prevail in the end."
Nonetheless it calls for a bit more than a disinterested shrug. This is a phone poll with LEAVE ahead. It's also a polling company putting their cullions on the line and saying Leavers are under sampled.
At the very least it has big betting implications.
Its all out war for the pollsters. One or more of them might be finished, reputationally, after this.
Well, YouGov are saying Leave is winning at the moment, but then says: "we still believe Remain will prevail in the end."
Nonetheless it calls for a bit more than a disinterested shrug. This is a phone poll with LEAVE ahead. It's also a polling company putting their cullions on the line and saying Leavers are under sampled.
At the very least it has big betting implications.
I'd agree on that. In fact put a few more quid on Leave this morning myself.
Its all out war for the pollsters. One or more of them might be finished, reputationally, after this.
Well, YouGov are saying Leave is winning at the moment, but then says: "we still believe Remain will prevail in the end."
Nonetheless it calls for a bit more than a disinterested shrug. This is a phone poll with LEAVE ahead. It's also a polling company putting their cullions on the line and saying Leavers are under sampled.
At the very least it has big betting implications.
I felt it called for a bet on Leave with 888 for £20 personally at 15-4.
I doubt the price will get any bigger than that.
Mind you I am also backing Wales to vote "Remain" at 4-9 for ~ £50...
I cannot think a single thing that would be funnier or more uplifting to see Leave sneak it in a month. There is no God, however, and so Remain remain overwhelmingly likely to have more votes than Leave. Damn it.
Its all out war for the pollsters. One or more of them might be finished, reputationally, after this.
Well, YouGov are saying Leave is winning at the moment, but then says: "we still believe Remain will prevail in the end."
Nonetheless it calls for a bit more than a disinterested shrug. This is a phone poll with LEAVE ahead. It's also a polling company putting their cullions on the line and saying Leavers are under sampled.
At the very least it has big betting implications.
I felt it called for a bet on Leave with 888 for £20 personally at 15-4.
I doubt the price will get any bigger than that.
Mind you I am also backing Wales to vote "Remain" at 4-9 for ~ £50...
I think at one point Remain are going to be 1.01 on Betfair
YouGov reckon that their phone poll is better than the others due to getting the educational balance of the sample right. Perhaps. I suspect that the lack of enthusiasm is down to scepticism at YouGov's as-yet unproven methodology.
A phone poll showing LEAVE ahead. Isn't that explosive? Isn't that... BOOM?
Or am I missing something?
The 7/2 probably isn't bad value if the polls really are all over the place.
Didn't we have an 18 point Remain the other day, so a 20 point polling spread?
I agree. There's so much uncertainty that Leave are excellent value. Leave also have the elderly on their side, who vote, though they also have non-graduates on their side, who don't so much (though the two will be related given the increase in graduates among younger age groups).
Its all out war for the pollsters. One or more of them might be finished, reputationally, after this.
Well, YouGov are saying Leave is winning at the moment, but then says: "we still believe Remain will prevail in the end."
Nonetheless it calls for a bit more than a disinterested shrug. This is a phone poll with LEAVE ahead. It's also a polling company putting their cullions on the line and saying Leavers are under sampled.
At the very least it has big betting implications.
I felt it called for a bet on Leave with 888 for £20 personally at 15-4.
I doubt the price will get any bigger than that.
Mind you I am also backing Wales to vote "Remain" at 4-9 for ~ £50...
I think at one point Remain are going to be 1.01 on Betfair
Might well be a great bet at that point too - we'll have more relevant information by that time I expect though !
If this is going to become a polling disaster I think it will be from differential turnout. Remain seem to be a trifle complacent now.
YouGov should wake them up. Plus, young voters - they are desperately working the campuses to get voter registration I believe, but what a terrible time to run a poll (exams just about ending; Glastonbury weekend; summer hols starting etc etc).
Its all out war for the pollsters. One or more of them might be finished, reputationally, after this.
Calm down dear ....
PBers don't do excited over EU polls after tea and are more concerned about whether Sri Lanka avoid the follow-on.
They're gonna avoid the follow on.
Struggling with the crossword 4 down
Keep playing in the dark please!
Good to see the players engaging with the kids in the crowd during the enforced break, that sort of thing means so much to those who get an autograph or a photo
A phone poll showing LEAVE ahead. Isn't that explosive? Isn't that... BOOM?
Or am I missing something?
The 7/2 probably isn't bad value if the polls really are all over the place.
Didn't we have an 18 point Remain the other day, so a 20 point polling spread?
I agree. There's so much uncertainty that Leave are excellent value. Leave also have the elderly on their side, who vote, though they also have non-graduates on their side, who don't so much (though the two will be related given the increase in graduates among younger age groups).
I agree.
I wonder at what point people think Remain would be value. Alastair set out the case for 1/4 earlier. I personally wouldn't back Remain at shorter than 2/5.
The Yougov telephone poll was carried out by a company called Feedback Market Research a name on everyones tip of the tongue as a renowned experienced political telephone pollster who are also not a member of the BPC
A phone poll showing LEAVE ahead. Isn't that explosive? Isn't that... BOOM?
Or am I missing something?
The 7/2 probably isn't bad value if the polls really are all over the place.
Didn't we have an 18 point Remain the other day, so a 20 point polling spread?
I agree. There's so much uncertainty that Leave are excellent value. Leave also have the elderly on their side, who vote, though they also have non-graduates on their side, who don't so much (though the two will be related given the increase in graduates among younger age groups).
I agree.
I wonder at what point people think Remain would be value. Alastair set out the case for 1/4 earlier. I personally wouldn't back Remain at shorter than 2/5.
I think 2-5 / 5-2 is the fair price given what we know and don't know.
A phone poll showing LEAVE ahead. Isn't that explosive? Isn't that... BOOM?
Or am I missing something?
The 7/2 probably isn't bad value if the polls really are all over the place.
Didn't we have an 18 point Remain the other day, so a 20 point polling spread?
I agree. There's so much uncertainty that Leave are excellent value. Leave also have the elderly on their side, who vote, though they also have non-graduates on their side, who don't so much (though the two will be related given the increase in graduates among younger age groups).
I agree.
I wonder at what point people think Remain would be value. Alastair set out the case for 1/4 earlier. I personally wouldn't back Remain at shorter than 2/5.
I wouldn't go below 4/7. I reckon par is a touch below 1/2.
The Yougov telephone poll was carried out by a company called Feedback Market Research a name on everyones tip of the tongue as a renowned experienced political telephone pollster who are also not a member of the BPC
You're close to libeling a respected pollster. Tsk. OGH will not approve.
A phone poll showing LEAVE ahead. Isn't that explosive? Isn't that... BOOM?
Or am I missing something?
The 7/2 probably isn't bad value if the polls really are all over the place.
Didn't we have an 18 point Remain the other day, so a 20 point polling spread?
I agree. There's so much uncertainty that Leave are excellent value. Leave also have the elderly on their side, who vote, though they also have non-graduates on their side, who don't so much (though the two will be related given the increase in graduates among younger age groups).
I agree.
I wonder at what point people think Remain would be value. Alastair set out the case for 1/4 earlier. I personally wouldn't back Remain at shorter than 2/5.
I wouldn't go below 4/7. I reckon par is a touch below 1/2.
On a totally different subject, I got a call today from out of the blue from a former ABC producer I knew back in the early 90s. He wants me to do a 45 minute (!) session on Sandra Bernhard's Sirius radio comedy show - on bioterrorism! I've said yes, and we'll do the interview into the can next month. But have to say I'm a little filled with trepidation - first time appearing on a comedy show. Perhaps I should start listening to her show to get a feel for it. Don't know yet when (if) it will air.
YouGov reckon that their phone poll is better than the others due to getting the educational balance of the sample right. Perhaps. I suspect that the lack of enthusiasm is down to scepticism at YouGov's as-yet unproven methodology.
Mike Smithson keeping shtum on this until the poll turns the other way.
The Yougov telephone poll was carried out by a company called Feedback Market Research a name on everyones tip of the tongue as a renowned experienced political telephone pollster who are also not a member of the BPC
You're close to libeling a respected pollster. Tsk. OGH will not approve.
Its all out war for the pollsters. One or more of them might be finished, reputationally, after this.
Well, YouGov are saying Leave is winning at the moment, but then says: "we still believe Remain will prevail in the end."
Nonetheless it calls for a bit more than a disinterested shrug. This is a phone poll with LEAVE ahead. It's also a polling company putting their cullions on the line and saying Leavers are under sampled.
At the very least it has big betting implications.
Their repeat call approach to chase down non-responses more closely resembles 'gold standard' social research polling.
John Curtice has put his name to a paper that essentially vindicates this approach as superior.
Supporters of Shia Muslim cleric Moqtada Sadr storm Baghdad Green Zone again, with reports of several people wounded
Whoa ? Baghdad o_O
I thought that was a proper Sunni stronghold !
Is he ISIS related - last thing I heard they were being pushed back...
Moqtada Sadr was the original bad boy Shi'a before al Qaeeda and ISIS, caused the Brits a lot of trouble down south and nearly scuppered several deals to form governments.
Baghdad is a very mixed city with some areas Sunni and others Shi'a. Sadr City is a Shi'a stronghold.
Turkey becoming one party state http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-36344314 The Turkish parliament has approved a controversial bill that will strip MPs of their immunity from prosecution.
Polls schmolls, no idea why people get excited by them, they've become nothing more than a money making exercise for polling companies. They simply produce (within the law) a favourable outcome for whoever is paying.
Both sides have played all their cards, with the possible exception of Leave and immigration, its now all down to events and mistakes.
Leave to win on a low turnout I repeat again, if we're getting bored on here consider those with only a vague interest.
Turkey becoming one party state http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-36344314 The Turkish parliament has approved a controversial bill that will strip MPs of their immunity from prosecution.
Relax it;s primarily aimed at the Kurds as Erdogan drifts further in to authoritaianism.
Nothing to worry about, we;ll send him more money.
The Yougov telephone poll was carried out by a company called Feedback Market Research a name on everyones tip of the tongue as a renowned experienced political telephone pollster who are also not a member of the BPC
You're close to libeling a respected pollster. Tsk. OGH will not approve.
Where is the libel you hysterical halfwit ?
You're close to saying YouGov have knowingly employed dodgy researchers.
Only someone with a twisted mind like yours would think that . Now I know it is a tough question for you but we can compare the results from 5 BPC member telephone pollsters with 1 non BPC telephone pollster with no track record of political polling , which one do you hysterically screech about ?.
And they wonder why he doesn't send them down at 94 mph any more. I highly doubt the likes of Marshall, Lillee, Donald, Lee thought about baby rhinos and their happy place...
Polls schmolls, no idea why people get excited by them, they've become nothing more than a money making exercise for polling companies. They simply produce (within the law) a favourable outcome for whoever is paying.
Both sides have played all their cards, with the possible exception of Leave and immigration, its now all down to events and mistakes.
Leave to win on a low turnout I repeat again, if we're getting bored on here consider those with only a vague interest.
What a ridiculous statement. This is a polIticalbetting website. Of course we look at the polls. And discuss them endlessly. It's all we've got apart from anecdotal evidence.
If people don't wanna talk about polls and politics then they probably shouldn't visit polIticalbetting.com
Nah, you can picture pb.ers punching the air when a favourable poll is released, like I do when Spurs score, followed by a loud YESSSSSSSSSSSSSS, get in.
The pollsters are either guessers or simply keeping their clients happy. They're all over the place, the majority have to be wrong.
And they wonder why he doesn't send them down at 94 mph any more. I highly doubt the likes of Marshall, Lillee, Donald, Lee thought about baby rhinos and their happy place...
Always alot of "Save the Rhino" drives on whenever the Sky boys are covering cricket in Africa, and a good job Beefy does on it too
The Yougov telephone poll was carried out by a company called Feedback Market Research a name on everyones tip of the tongue as a renowned experienced political telephone pollster who are also not a member of the BPC
You're close to libeling a respected pollster. Tsk. OGH will not approve.
Where is the libel you hysterical halfwit ?
You're close to saying YouGov have knowingly employed dodgy researchers.
Only someone with a twisted mind like yours would think that . Now I know it is a tough question for you but we can compare the results from 5 BPC member telephone pollsters with 1 non BPC telephone pollster with no track record of political polling , which one do you hysterically screech about ?.
Has it not occurred to you, you dribbling, toad-faced moron, that YouGov might have strayed outside the normal group of pollsters precisely because they believe there is some groupthink tainting the results, hitherto?
This is the hypothesis which inspired their experiment.
I am quite sure that ICM would have been happy to use their call centre staff to ask Yougov's questions for them and weight the results as they wish as indeed they have done in the past for other polling companies I have a 2nd hand spade for sale which you can have for a modest amount to help dig yourself a deeper hole .
Meek's post concerning the 1-4 being value was put up before this Yougov revelation, it has changed my mind about where the fair price is slightly ^^; (1-4 -> 2-5 ^_~)
A phone poll showing LEAVE ahead. Isn't that explosive? Isn't that... BOOM?
Or am I missing something?
The fieldwork is over 3 weeks old I believe, hence lack of excitement by Leavers.
I wouldn't discount it for that reason as there's some hint of a move to Leave since then.
I wasn't discounting it, it has some interesting methodological points but at the end of the day it's telling us where things might have stood at the end of April.
Really not sure there has been any consistent move to Leave at all in the last week or 2. Phone and online polls are consistently significantly out of line with each other so be interesting to see which is closer on June 23rd. Quite clear that by and large everyone is just talking up the polls that confirm what they want to see happen.
Meek's post concerning the 1-4 being value was put up before this Yougov revelation, it has changed my mind about where the fair price is slightly ^^; (1-4 -> 2-5 ^_~)
If the "fair price" is 2/5 then 4/9 or better is value. Meeks implication was that the "fair price" is 2/9.
I said at the time that Remain are worthy favourites but at this stage 1/4 is nothing like overpriced.
A phone poll showing LEAVE ahead. Isn't that explosive? Isn't that... BOOM?
Or am I missing something?
The fieldwork is over 3 weeks old I believe, hence lack of excitement by Leavers.
I wouldn't discount it for that reason as there's some hint of a move to Leave since then.
I wasn't discounting it, it has some interesting methodological points but at the end of the day it's telling us where things might have stood at the end of April.
Really not sure there has been any consistent move to Leave at all in the last week or 2. Phone and online polls are consistently significantly out of line with each other so be interesting to see which is closer on June 23rd. Quite clear that by and large everyone is just talking up the polls that confirm what they want to see happen.
I keep being told the WWC outside of London are enthusiastic Remainers. Perhaps Mrs Duffy bucks the trend.
You said there were "very few" WWC Remain voters outside of London. That is simply not true No-one has claimed that the WWC outside of London are all enthusiastic Remainers.
Comments
I also hope they're scrutinising the manifests from previous flights of the aircraft, it's a short haul aircraft making several flights a day, it visited Brussles, Asmara and Tunis (all out and return from Cairo) in the 24 hours before the accident.
https://www.flightradar24.com/data/aircraft/su-gcc
@rafaelbehr: Gove more liberal than most Tory MPs on immigration. He resisted May's hard line in cabinet. He's demeaning himself with this ukippy script.
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/may/20/black-studies-university-course-long-overdue
"Movements such as Why is My Curriculum White? and Rhodes Must Fall show that students are tired of some of the unrepresentative and outdated knowledge and experiences being reproduced in British universities. And when students cannot relate to the subject matter of the courses they become alienated and disinterested."
Enroll here for Black Studies at BCU for a future career in a call centre, with free added chip on your shoulder about how racist the world is.
8 Across?
Turkey isn't a worry just for naturally Kippers or the right side of the Conservatives.
Students choose wrong course - blame chosen universirty.
http://www.lefigaro.fr/social/2016/05/20/09010-20160520ARTFIG00183-loi-travail-les-blocages-laissent-encore-planer-la-menace-de-penurie-de-carburant.php
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-australia-36299682
Bloody lazy immigrants not integrating...
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-05-19/china-seen-faking-488-million-internet-posts-to-divert-criticism
Didn't we have an 18 point Remain the other day, so a 20 point polling spread?
Can't blame Ed Davey any more - 100% Tory DECC.
You're right though, this could have come straight from Ed Davey. Or Ed Miliband even
They might yet herd.
I doubt the price will get any bigger than that.
Mind you I am also backing Wales to vote "Remain" at 4-9 for ~ £50...
https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/732840525754142720?lang=en-gb
YouGov reckon that their phone poll is better than the others due to getting the educational balance of the sample right. Perhaps. I suspect that the lack of enthusiasm is down to scepticism at YouGov's as-yet unproven methodology.
PBers don't do excited over EU polls after tea and are more concerned about whether Sri Lanka avoid the follow-on.
But fascinating enough to be worth watching.
Good to see the players engaging with the kids in the crowd during the enforced break, that sort of thing means so much to those who get an autograph or a photo
I wonder at what point people think Remain would be value. Alastair set out the case for 1/4 earlier. I personally wouldn't back Remain at shorter than 2/5.
I thought that was a proper Sunni stronghold !
Is he ISIS related - last thing I heard they were being pushed back...
Lib(el)Dem Not Taking Prisoners Here
John Curtice has put his name to a paper that essentially vindicates this approach as superior.
Baghdad is a very mixed city with some areas Sunni and others Shi'a. Sadr City is a Shi'a stronghold.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-36344314
The Turkish parliament has approved a controversial bill that will strip MPs of their immunity from prosecution.
http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/2016/03/iraq-reinvention-muqtada-al-sadr-160309061939234.html
Both sides have played all their cards, with the possible exception of Leave and immigration, its now all down to events and mistakes.
Leave to win on a low turnout I repeat again, if we're getting bored on here consider those with only a vague interest.
Nothing to worry about, we;ll send him more money.
What will North Londoners put at the bottom of their budgie cages?
Who looked upon phone polls with Glee,
Then one came in from Yougov,
Like a bolt from above,
And throughly.ruined his tea.
By the time all the targets are contacted, time has passed and the results are no longer fresh.
http://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/sport/cricket/watch-andrew-flintoff-hit-huge-11359998
http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p03vflfk
And they wonder why he doesn't send them down at 94 mph any more. I highly doubt the likes of Marshall, Lillee, Donald, Lee thought about baby rhinos and their happy place...
The pollsters are either guessers or simply keeping their clients happy. They're all over the place, the majority have to be wrong.
Apparently lack of resources has meant Crick missed Labour and Lib Dem dodgy spending....pull the other one its got bells on it.
Conservative 37 (-0.8)
Labour 35 (+3.8)
Lib Dem 7 (-1.1)
UKIP 12 (-0.9)
One poll later, they undertook a re-weighting (https://yougov.co.uk/news/2015/04/08/labour-lead-2/) and the accuracy of their polling never recovered.
I have a 2nd hand spade for sale which you can have for a modest amount to help dig yourself a deeper hole .
Everyone did lay the draw, didn't they?
Edit: Matthews should have reviewed it, hit him outside the line.
Really not sure there has been any consistent move to Leave at all in the last week or 2. Phone and online polls are consistently significantly out of line with each other so be interesting to see which is closer on June 23rd. Quite clear that by and large everyone is just talking up the polls that confirm what they want to see happen.
I said at the time that Remain are worthy favourites but at this stage 1/4 is nothing like overpriced.
No it's because it is so out of date.
You said there were "very few" WWC Remain voters outside of London. That is simply not true No-one has claimed that the WWC outside of London are all enthusiastic Remainers.