The "the EU isn't important, no one cites it as a top issue" is a complete misreading of the data.
Sure few people put "the EU' as one of their issues. But when you think through what they actually care about - immigration is the obvious one - then when you consider solutions out relationship with the EU *has* to be part of the answer (whichever side of the argument you are on).
Once people focus on a vote, and if they come to the conclusion that the EU is indelibly linked to an important issue then it becomes an important topic for them. That is, I think, what has happened here.
Frankly, I don't think people are focusing upon the vote, most are sick and tired of hearing about it. When you here Boris ranting like a loony, and Dave talking nonsense, then for "good" measure you get the bar room bore Farage ranting, most sensible people switch off. Its got to the state that the truth has become lost, and in reality NOONE knows what would happen if we left.. Guesses can be made, but no one knows for sure.
That's probably true. But people who say "no one puts the EU as top of their list of issues therefore no one cares" are simply wrong.
It's like saying "no one cares about membership of the MPC, therefore no one cares about interest rate policy"
I heard on radio yesterday an economist who said that economists are 10 to 1 in favour of staying in because they know the economic damage that will be caused if we leave. An equally articulate Brexiteer said that economic forcasts are not an exact science.
The economist replied that that was true. He said no economist can tell you that the stock market will fall next Wednesday but what we can say with absolute certainty is that in the event of leaving it will collapse.
The "the EU isn't important, no one cites it as a top issue" is a complete misreading of the data.
Sure few people put "the EU' as one of their issues. But when you think through what they actually care about - immigration is the obvious one - then when you consider solutions out relationship with the EU *has* to be part of the answer (whichever side of the argument you are on).
Once people focus on a vote, and if they come to the conclusion that the EU is indelibly linked to an important issue then it becomes an important topic for them. That is, I think, what has happened here.
Frankly, I don't think people are focusing upon the vote, most are sick and tired of hearing about it. When you here Boris ranting like a loony, and Dave talking nonsense, then for "good" measure you get the bar room bore Farage ranting, most sensible people switch off. Its got to the state that the truth has become lost, and in reality NOONE knows what would happen if we left.. Guesses can be made, but no one knows for sure.
That's probably true. But people who say "no one puts the EU as top of their list of issues therefore no one cares" are simply wrong.
It's like saying "no one cares about membership of the MPC, therefore no one cares about interest rate policy"
I heard on radio yesterday an economist who said that economists are 10 to 1 in favour of staying in because they know the economic damage that will be caused if we leave. An equally articulate Brexiteer said that economic forcasts are not an exact science.
The economist replied that that was true. He said no economist can tell you that the stock market will fall next Wednesday but what we can say with absolute certainty is that in the event of leaving it will collapse.
No - you can't say that the stock exchange will collapse with absolute certainty.
Any regulated individual who said that would (probably) be in breach of the terms of their registration.
It is likely that it will fall (my guess is 5-6%) and then will recover over a 6 month period as there is increased clarity.
The counterargument is that Brexit dislocation will result in interest rates remaining lower for longer, thereby providing underpinning for equity prices due to a lack of alternative investment opportunities.
(I don't care, though, as my portfolio is structured on an absolute return basis: RPI+5% is good enough for me; I'm not greedy)
The rather strange Jacob Rees Mogg spent the weekend suggesting that the Tories would stay together post referendum because they would remain "courteous". Fast forward a couple of days and he has accused his leader of lying and demanded his resignation. It really is increasingly hard to see a post referendum forgive and forget amongst the Conservatives... Couldn't happen to a nicer bunch *popcorn*
I am surprised more hasn't been made of Piri Patel saying that George Osborne colluded with the IMF to bully us. Clearly, she can't work in the same government as GO post-referendum.
So you reckon Osborne will be on his way out then?
If Leave win, as I expect them to, then unquestionably. Our government will move even further to the right.
I do wish you'd stop saying that.
Your predictions are always wrong.
You could always call for SO to be banned. Just like you do for others whose message you don't like or disagree with.
Think of OGH's bandwidth heh?
Eh?
Withdrawn. My apologies Casino this was not directed at you.
FPT @Jonathan: "I imagine that Corbyn, of whom I am no fan, may very well argue that this dialogue contributed to the peace process."
Let's knock this nonsense on the head right now. Corbyn contributed nothing to the peace process. He opposed key steps in the peace process, such as the Anglo-Irish Agreement. He did not have any dialogue designed to bring parties together. He supported one terrorist group which sought to bomb its way to a United Ireland contrary to the democratically expressed wishes of the population of Northern Ireland. He never engaged in dialogue with Unionists.
There were plenty of people who engaged in dialogue, who laid the groundwork for what has been achieved over a long period of time. Corbyn was not one of them. Nor was McDonnell. For either of them to try and pretend or claim that they were one of the foot soldiers who helped bring peace is not just untrue, it is insulting to those who did take such steps. It is dishonest and as morally repulsive as their support for men of violence who brought such misery to so many people for such a long time.
Australia has a population of 23 million, so equivalent to about half a million migrants re-based to a UK population. Australia with its points system has twice the percapita immigration that we do. I recall the figures for Canada are pretty similar.
I believe the reason behind a points-based system is to sift based on quality, not quantity.
Is there a qualitatitve difference between the Australian and UK net migration?
I think only about a quarter of Australian migrants come through on the point based system. Most, like with immigration from the Indian subcontinent to the UK, comes via family connections and the like.
What makes my blood boil is that if one of these illegals manages to make it to the UK, then is granted asylum, suddenly there's a myriad of family members who have to be allowed in because of the 'right to a family life'
And of course they can then avail themselves of all the services free of charge and free of ever paying any taxes previously. There are always some genuine cases of course and we should certainly not turn our backs in those circumstances. As soon as the " right to family life" card is played you know it's as good as a scam. Remember the 3000 children we have just saved from the appalling, inhumane conditions of the life threatening war zone in northern France. No doubt families will follow under the right to a family life.
Presumably, as we only took on orphans, if the families turn up then the kids right to remain will be automatically rescinded as they must have lied on their application.
On topic, Alastair wins the internet today with this line
With Leave’s condemnations of the EU having moved from forthright to Fourth Reich over the weekend
With prominent Brexiteers calling for people to be sacked, and threatening civil unrest, it does not feel like a campaign imbued with winning confidence...
I wonder if we'll see a Kristallnacht against Remainers?
What was the level of immigration twenty to thirty years ago during the 1980s and 1990s booms? Why does it need to be five/ten times higher now to stop the economy tanking?
Because we have an ageing and more unproductive population. Before the boom of the late 80s there was mass unemployment. We don't have that now.
We've had an ageing population for about 250 years.
Is that true, even while the population was rocketing during the 19th century?
Very much so. There were occasional periods (I think the 1840's was one) where life expectancy fell, but it's been pretty much one way since the Industrial Revolution started.
Average life expectancy in 1800 was about 30. That average figure was depressed by high infant death rates, but very few working class people could expect to to live or work beyond 50.
Looking at the players on the England cricket tour to North America in 1859 - the average age was 31 and on average they died at 56. Six died before they were 50 with only one living beyond the age of 70.
Perhaps against the grain, I don't agree with much of Antifrank's latest offering. It's a bit rambling and condescending and, as usual, more than a few unsubtle digs and jibes at the LEAVE campaign which, if you don't think the public are that interested, won't matter as they won't have been noticed.
I think David Cameron, rather than Boris, is the key figure and apart from the picture, he's not mentioned at all. Everyone, even the disinterested, will know Cameron as Prime Minister and have a view on him a such so, whether he likes it or not, the EU Referendum provides a safe opportunity to give the Prime Minister and the Government a good kicking (like a by-election in all honesty).
We are told constantly REMAIN needs non-Conservative (and obviously non-UKIP) votes to win but will that nuance be picked up by the disinterested ? If Cameron's on one side and I don't like Cameron, I'll vote for the other side - simple (and of course vice versa).
Once again, the "lucky general" has other soldiers to fight for him in the battle even as many of his own side sit out the fight or are actively fighting for the other side.
No. The big increase in the elderly is mostly in the over 75's of whom 50% or so self describe as poor health.
That may well be so, but if we look back to the late 1980s for example, the retirement age was respectively 60 for females and 65 for males.
The definition of elderly/pensioner has moved, and economically productive lives have been extended.
That must have translated into millions of additional people available for the labour pool without turning to imported labour.
The proportion of working women has also increased.
What you find, which is a curious observation, in areas of the UK which have had very low levels of immigration, those jobs that we desperately needed immigrants to do... Guess what, they still got done, but are done in larger numbers by working women.
It is a curious phenomena. Bus drivers, taxi drivers, factory processing etc, done by women in larger numbers.
Since the EU enlargement though, previously largely untouched, the larger eastern european population means that the many jobs often done by youngsters, and the agricultural work has now become what seems exclusively by those.
Economic migration of low skilled workers affects those on the margin of employment severely - the young, the low skilled, the disabled, the long term unemployed, those with criminal records for example.
Its quite disgusting how willingly some privileged people are to hurt such groups in their desire for cheaper, more servile immigrant labour.
The "the EU isn't important, no one cites it as a top issue" is a complete misreading of the data.
Sure few people put "the EU' as one of their issues. But when you think through what they actually care about - immigration is the obvious one - then when you consider solutions out relationship with the EU *has* to be part of the answer (whichever side of the argument you are on).
Once people focus on a vote, and if they come to the conclusion that the EU is indelibly linked to an important issue then it becomes an important topic for them. That is, I think, what has happened here.
Frankly, I don't think people are focusing upon the vote, most are sick and tired of hearing about it. When you here Boris ranting like a loony, and Dave talking nonsense, then for "good" measure you get the bar room bore Farage ranting, most sensible people switch off. Its got to the state that the truth has become lost, and in reality NOONE knows what would happen if we left.. Guesses can be made, but no one knows for sure.
That's probably true. But people who say "no one puts the EU as top of their list of issues therefore no one cares" are simply wrong.
It's like saying "no one cares about membership of the MPC, therefore no one cares about interest rate policy"
I heard on radio yesterday an economist who said that economists are 10 to 1 in favour of staying in because they know the economic damage that will be caused if we leave. An equally articulate Brexiteer said that economic forcasts are not an exact science.
The economist replied that that was true. He said no economist can tell you that the stock market will fall next Wednesday but what we can say with absolute certainty is that in the event of leaving it will collapse.
No - you can't say that the stock exchange will collapse with absolute certainty.
Any regulated individual who said that would (probably) be in breach of the terms of their registration.
It is likely that it will fall (my guess is 5-6%) and then will recover over a 6 month period as there is increased clarity.
The counterargument is that Brexit dislocation will result in interest rates remaining lower for longer, thereby providing underpinning for equity prices due to a lack of alternative investment opportunities.
(I don't care, though, as my portfolio is structured on an absolute return basis: RPI+5% is good enough for me; I'm not greedy)
It's encouraging to know that at least one banker has built his ark in time for the flood.
On topic, Alastair wins the internet today with this line
With Leave’s condemnations of the EU having moved from forthright to Fourth Reich over the weekend
With prominent Brexiteers calling for people to be sacked, and threatening civil unrest, it does not feel like a campaign imbued with winning confidence...
.....and that's before you get to WW3 and thermo-nuclear Armageddon of course.....
On topic, Alastair wins the internet today with this line
With Leave’s condemnations of the EU having moved from forthright to Fourth Reich over the weekend
With prominent Brexiteers calling for people to be sacked, and threatening civil unrest, it does not feel like a campaign imbued with winning confidence...
It seems like, according to The Times article downthread, that it's the Government that's thinking of doing that at the moment.
What was the level of immigration twenty to thirty years ago during the 1980s and 1990s booms? Why does it need to be five/ten times higher now to stop the economy tanking?
Because we have an ageing and more unproductive population. Before the boom of the late 80s there was mass unemployment. We don't have that now.
We've had an ageing population for about 250 years.
Is that true, even while the population was rocketing during the 19th century?
The rocketing population would have partly been a function of great advances in medicine and public health works on sanitation, which would have extended lifespans across all age groups.
IIRC, if you look at stats the significant increase in average lifespan was a function of the collapse in infant mortality.
If you survived beyond 5 in the 19th century, then you actually had a pretty good life-expectancy
Anecdata - my father's parents were born in 1898/1899 - they were from families of 14/15. Only one other sibling lasted to 60+. They lived into their mid-70s.
Unimaginable what it must have been like to live a life back then.
The "the EU isn't important, no one cites it as a top issue" is a complete misreading of the data.
Sure few people put "the EU' as one of their issues. But when you think through what they actually care about - immigration is the obvious one - then when you consider solutions out relationship with the EU *has* to be part of the answer (whichever side of the argument you are on).
Once people focus on a vote, and if they come to the conclusion that the EU is indelibly linked to an important issue then it becomes an important topic for them. That is, I think, what has happened here.
Frankly, I don't think people are focusing upon the vote, most are sick and tired of hearing about it. When you here Boris ranting like a loony, and Dave talking nonsense, then for "good" measure you get the bar room bore Farage ranting, most sensible people switch off. Its got to the state that the truth has become lost, and in reality NOONE knows what would happen if we left.. Guesses can be made, but no one knows for sure.
That's probably true. But people who say "no one puts the EU as top of their list of issues therefore no one cares" are simply wrong.
It's like saying "no one cares about membership of the MPC, therefore no one cares about interest rate policy"
I heard on radio yesterday an economist who said that economists are 10 to 1 in favour of staying in because they know the economic damage that will be caused if we leave. An equally articulate Brexiteer said that economic forcasts are not an exact science.
The economist replied that that was true. He said no economist can tell you that the stock market will fall next Wednesday but what we can say with absolute certainty is that in the event of leaving it will collapse.
Which economist was that ?
It would be interesting to know what he was predicting in 2007.
I also remember being told that the stock market would collapse if Britain left the ERM in 1992.
Along with being told that three million people would lose their jobs, the car factories would shut down, the City would relocate to Frankfurt, there would be hyperinflation and sterling would become as worthless as the Ukrainian Coupon.
We have made a slight change in our methodology since our previous poll. While our polls at the Scottish, Welsh and London elections were generally very accurate, one consistent flaw was that we had UKIP too high. Investigating this error appears to be related to the switch from weighting by party ID to weighting by past vote. Comparing our sample to the British Election Study people in our polls who voted for "establishment" parties like the Conservatives and Labour in 2015 were not likely enough to also identify with the party, people who voted for "challenger" parties like UKIP and the Greens in 2015 were too likely to identify strongly with them.
To address this we have added an extra weight by whether respondents generally identify with one of the main established parties, whether they identify with one of the smaller, newer parties, or whether they don't have any strong party identification. The impact of this is to slightly reduce the level of UKIP support in our voting intention figures and slightly increase support for Britain remaining in the European Union. In today's poll the change has increased Remain's lead by one point, from 3 points on our old weights to 4 points on our new weights.
As ever, we are keeping our methodology under constant review, and are actively looking at other areas such as how we deal with don't knows, how best to model likelihood to vote and keeping track of false recall in past vote.
Normally yes .... but Mike's bandwidth is going on a diet and all LEAVE contributions now require strict vetting for hidden messages and clearly your "Good morning, everyone" is a cleverly coded call to the wiffle stick fifth columnists on PB to implement "Operation Adolf" and implement a thousand years of mindless public dancing in favour on BREXIT.
No - you can't say that the stock exchange will collapse with absolute certainty.
Any regulated individual who said that would (probably) be in breach of the terms of their registration.
It is likely that it will fall (my guess is 5-6%) and then will recover over a 6 month period as there is increased clarity.
The counterargument is that Brexit dislocation will result in interest rates remaining lower for longer, thereby providing underpinning for equity prices due to a lack of alternative investment opportunities.
(I don't care, though, as my portfolio is structured on an absolute return basis: RPI+5% is good enough for me; I'm not greedy)
--------------------------
Well you would think that if this was a risk, we would already see it in the price, no?
Let's assume the market agrees with Betfair that Brexit is a 30% chance - if so you would expect this 30% chance of a 'collapse' (which is what? -10%? -20%?) to be already priced in.
And yet since the referendum announcement on Feb 20, the FTSE allshare is up 4%, a better performance than the Eurozone stock indices...
We have made a slight change in our methodology since our previous poll. While our polls at the Scottish, Welsh and London elections were generally very accurate, one consistent flaw was that we had UKIP too high. Investigating this error appears to be related to the switch from weighting by party ID to weighting by past vote. Comparing our sample to the British Election Study people in our polls who voted for "establishment" parties like the Conservatives and Labour in 2015 were not likely enough to also identify with the party, people who voted for "challenger" parties like UKIP and the Greens in 2015 were too likely to identify strongly with them.
To address this we have added an extra weight by whether respondents generally identify with one of the main established parties, whether they identify with one of the smaller, newer parties, or whether they don't have any strong party identification. The impact of this is to slightly reduce the level of UKIP support in our voting intention figures and slightly increase support for Britain remaining in the European Union. In today's poll the change has increased Remain's lead by one point, from 3 points on our old weights to 4 points on our new weights.
As ever, we are keeping our methodology under constant review, and are actively looking at other areas such as how we deal with don't knows, how best to model likelihood to vote and keeping track of false recall in past vote.
We have made a slight change in our methodology since our previous poll. While our polls at the Scottish, Welsh and London elections were generally very accurate, one consistent flaw was that we had UKIP too high. Investigating this error appears to be related to the switch from weighting by party ID to weighting by past vote. Comparing our sample to the British Election Study people in our polls who voted for "establishment" parties like the Conservatives and Labour in 2015 were not likely enough to also identify with the party, people who voted for "challenger" parties like UKIP and the Greens in 2015 were too likely to identify strongly with them.
To address this we have added an extra weight by whether respondents generally identify with one of the main established parties, whether they identify with one of the smaller, newer parties, or whether they don't have any strong party identification. The impact of this is to slightly reduce the level of UKIP support in our voting intention figures and slightly increase support for Britain remaining in the European Union. In today's poll the change has increased Remain's lead by one point, from 3 points on our old weights to 4 points on our new weights.
As ever, we are keeping our methodology under constant review, and are actively looking at other areas such as how we deal with don't knows, how best to model likelihood to vote and keeping track of false recall in past vote.
On topic, Alastair wins the internet today with this line
With Leave’s condemnations of the EU having moved from forthright to Fourth Reich over the weekend
With prominent Brexiteers calling for people to be sacked, and threatening civil unrest, it does not feel like a campaign imbued with winning confidence...
I wonder if we'll see a Kristallnacht against Remainers?
Frightening times.
That works both ways.
One feature of every time a good poll comes out for Remain is the gloating which includes silencing and shutting up the eurosceptics, a good dollop of insults, and claims that this will settle this for a generation.
If Remainers do behave with that level of arrogance post a Brexit win, in a party where they are the minority opinion amongst their voters and activists and with a pretty evenly split parliamentary party, it is not going to be pretty.
On topic, Alastair wins the internet today with this line
With Leave’s condemnations of the EU having moved from forthright to Fourth Reich over the weekend
With prominent Brexiteers calling for people to be sacked, and threatening civil unrest, it does not feel like a campaign imbued with winning confidence...
I wonder if we'll see a Kristallnacht against Remainers?
Frightening times.
That works both ways.
One feature of every time a good poll comes out for Remain is the gloating which includes silencing and shutting up the eurosceptics, a good dollop of insults, and claims that this will settle this for a generation.
If Remainers do behave with that level of arrogance post a Brexit win, in a party where they are the minority opinion amongst their voters and activists and with a pretty evenly split parliamentary party, it is not going to be pretty.
What arrogance is is Leavers are talking of violence on the street, second referendums and wanting a military coup. Now that's arrogance.
I'm going to respect the will of the people, whatever the result is. I hope you do too.
A pattern is recognisable here - Boris has vaguely read something about the EU and banana bunches, and gets it precisely wrong because he doesn't bother to check. He could actually make a legitimate point that it's silly for the EU to have a rule on the size of banana bunches at all - I'd agree with that. But he says the rule that they have to be small when in fact it's that they have to be big.
That chimes with what I remember of him in Parliament. He's lazy and has got used to the idea that he doesn't need to bother with details because he can wing it with generalised statements, bluster and jovial apologies when necessary. Many of us are exactly like that on issues we don't care about, but it's a seriously bad trait in a potential PM.
The one thing I thought was noteworthy yesterday was Farage saying that if it's a Remain vote then never mind because there'll be another vote one day - which prompted hysterical 'this is it forever, no more EU referendums ever' stuff from Dave and Heseltine and the like.
I think Remain are likely to win, just. The EU will gradually become more and more like a superstate or a failed state. And the benefits of our continued membership will look ever thinner. In 15 years' time a Leave vote looks more likely to win. If that is the clear view of a majority and the government of the day decides to legislate for a referendum accordingly then there will be one. Dave is being a tool.
We have made a slight change in our methodology since our previous poll. While our polls at the Scottish, Welsh and London elections were generally very accurate, one consistent flaw was that we had UKIP too high. Investigating this error appears to be related to the switch from weighting by party ID to weighting by past vote. Comparing our sample to the British Election Study people in our polls who voted for "establishment" parties like the Conservatives and Labour in 2015 were not likely enough to also identify with the party, people who voted for "challenger" parties like UKIP and the Greens in 2015 were too likely to identify strongly with them.
To address this we have added an extra weight by whether respondents generally identify with one of the main established parties, whether they identify with one of the smaller, newer parties, or whether they don't have any strong party identification. The impact of this is to slightly reduce the level of UKIP support in our voting intention figures and slightly increase support for Britain remaining in the European Union. In today's poll the change has increased Remain's lead by one point, from 3 points on our old weights to 4 points on our new weights.
As ever, we are keeping our methodology under constant review, and are actively looking at other areas such as how we deal with don't knows, how best to model likelihood to vote and keeping track of false recall in past vote.
I was YouGov'd yesterday and asked to confirm who I voted for recently. And if I was a Party Member. Depending on how the result goes on 23 - I may switch to DK for future elections or jump to UKIP. I've almost had enough of being actively lied to.
The "the EU isn't important, no one cites it as a top issue" is a complete misreading of the data.
Sure few people put "the EU' as one of their issues. But when you think through what they actually care about - immigration is the obvious one - then when you consider solutions out relationship with the EU *has* to be part of the answer (whichever side of the argument you are on).
Once people focus on a vote, and if they come to the conclusion that the EU is indelibly linked to an important issue then it becomes an important topic for them. That is, I think, what has happened here.
Frankly, I don't think people are focusing upon the vote, most are sick and tired of hearing about it. When you here Boris ranting like a loony, and Dave talking nonsense, then for "good" measure you get the bar room bore Farage ranting, most sensible people switch off. Its got to the state that the truth has become lost, and in reality NOONE knows what would happen if we left.. Guesses can be made, but no one knows for sure.
That's probably true. But people who say "no one puts the EU as top of their list of issues therefore no one cares" are simply wrong.
It's like saying "no one cares about membership of the MPC, therefore no one cares about interest rate policy"
I heard on radio yesterday an economist who said that economists are 10 to 1 in favour of staying in because they know the economic damage that will be caused if we leave. An equally articulate Brexiteer said that economic forcasts are not an exact science.
The economist replied that that was true. He said no economist can tell you that the stock market will fall next Wednesday but what we can say with absolute certainty is that in the event of leaving it will collapse.
Really? In that case he was lying. Who was it?
Runnymede. That's just taken me forever! The discussion was between Anthony Hopkins and Professor John Fender. The bit I mentioned starts about 1.57. He was talking about conditional and unconditional forcasts and his exact words were 'We can say categorically it will fall a long way"
We have made a slight change in our methodology since our previous poll. While our polls at the Scottish, Welsh and London elections were generally very accurate, one consistent flaw was that we had UKIP too high. Investigating this error appears to be related to the switch from weighting by party ID to weighting by past vote. Comparing our sample to the British Election Study people in our polls who voted for "establishment" parties like the Conservatives and Labour in 2015 were not likely enough to also identify with the party, people who voted for "challenger" parties like UKIP and the Greens in 2015 were too likely to identify strongly with them.
To address this we have added an extra weight by whether respondents generally identify with one of the main established parties, whether they identify with one of the smaller, newer parties, or whether they don't have any strong party identification. The impact of this is to slightly reduce the level of UKIP support in our voting intention figures and slightly increase support for Britain remaining in the European Union. In today's poll the change has increased Remain's lead by one point, from 3 points on our old weights to 4 points on our new weights.
As ever, we are keeping our methodology under constant review, and are actively looking at other areas such as how we deal with don't knows, how best to model likelihood to vote and keeping track of false recall in past vote.
I was YouGov'd yesterday and asked to confirm who I voted for recently. And if I was a Party Member. Depending on how the result goes on 23 - I may switch to DK for future elections or jump to UKIP. I've almost had enough of being actively lied to.
Betrayed by Tony, deceived by Dave.. you are easily misled.. you should vote LD. Tim Farron needs you!
The one thing I thought was noteworthy yesterday was Farage saying that if it's a Remain vote then never mind because there'll be another vote one day - which prompted hysterical 'this is it forever, no more EU referendums ever' stuff from Dave and Heseltine and the like.
I think Remain are likely to win, just. The EU will gradually become more and more like a superstate or a failed state. And the benefits of our continued membership will look ever thinner. In 15 years' time a Leave vote looks more likely to win. If that is the clear view of a majority and the government of the day decides to legislate for a referendum accordingly then there will be one. Dave is being a tool.
I took Farage's point as nailing Cameron down - again. We've had two questions in the House doing the same. If Leave wins - it has to be a win, not some staging post for being asked again like Ireland et al.
PB may be waiting for detailed figures before responding to this huge poll. I'm not!
At 3.8-3.85 Leave's price is as big as it's been for quite a while - at the same time that they are ahead in this huge poll after the "very likely to vote" filter is applied. The current Leave price looks great value to me.
The "the EU isn't important, no one cites it as a top issue" is a complete misreading of the data.
Sure few people put "the EU' as one of their issues. But when you think through what they actually care about - immigration is the obvious one - then when you consider solutions out relationship with the EU *has* to be part of the answer (whichever side of the argument you are on).
Once people focus on a vote, and if they come to the conclusion that the EU is indelibly linked to an important issue then it becomes an important topic for them. That is, I think, what has happened here.
Frankly, I don't think people are focusing upon the vote, most are sick and tired of hearing about it. When you here Boris ranting like a loony, and Dave talking nonsense, then for "good" measure you get the bar room bore Farage ranting, most sensible people switch off. Its got to the state that the truth has become lost, and in reality NOONE knows what would happen if we left.. Guesses can be made, but no one knows for sure.
That's probably true. But people who say "no one puts the EU as top of their list of issues therefore no one cares" are simply wrong.
It's like saying "no one cares about membership of the MPC, therefore no one cares about interest rate policy"
I heard on radio yesterday an economist who said that economists are 10 to 1 in favour of staying in because they know the economic damage that will be caused if we leave. An equally articulate Brexiteer said that economic forcasts are not an exact science.
The economist replied that that was true. He said no economist can tell you that the stock market will fall next Wednesday but what we can say with absolute certainty is that in the event of leaving it will collapse.
Which economist was that ?
It would be interesting to know what he was predicting in 2007.
I also remember being told that the stock market would collapse if Britain left the ERM in 1992.
Along with being told that three million people would lose their jobs, the car factories would shut down, the City would relocate to Frankfurt, there would be hyperinflation and sterling would become as worthless as the Ukrainian Coupon.
Professor John Fender but look at my reply to Runnymede for more complete details
We have made a slight change in our methodology since our previous poll. While our polls at the Scottish, Welsh and London elections were generally very accurate, one consistent flaw was that we had UKIP too high. Investigating this error appears to be related to the switch from weighting by party ID to weighting by past vote. Comparing our sample to the British Election Study people in our polls who voted for "establishment" parties like the Conservatives and Labour in 2015 were not likely enough to also identify with the party, people who voted for "challenger" parties like UKIP and the Greens in 2015 were too likely to identify strongly with them.
To address this we have added an extra weight by whether respondents generally identify with one of the main established parties, whether they identify with one of the smaller, newer parties, or whether they don't have any strong party identification. The impact of this is to slightly reduce the level of UKIP support in our voting intention figures and slightly increase support for Britain remaining in the European Union. In today's poll the change has increased Remain's lead by one point, from 3 points on our old weights to 4 points on our new weights.
As ever, we are keeping our methodology under constant review, and are actively looking at other areas such as how we deal with don't knows, how best to model likelihood to vote and keeping track of false recall in past vote.
We have made a slight change in our methodology since our previous poll. While our polls at the Scottish, Welsh and London elections were generally very accurate, one consistent flaw was that we had UKIP too high. Investigating this error appears to be related to the switch from weighting by party ID to weighting by past vote. Comparing our sample to the British Election Study people in our polls who voted for "establishment" parties like the Conservatives and Labour in 2015 were not likely enough to also identify with the party, people who voted for "challenger" parties like UKIP and the Greens in 2015 were too likely to identify strongly with them.
To address this we have added an extra weight by whether respondents generally identify with one of the main established parties, whether they identify with one of the smaller, newer parties, or whether they don't have any strong party identification. The impact of this is to slightly reduce the level of UKIP support in our voting intention figures and slightly increase support for Britain remaining in the European Union. In today's poll the change has increased Remain's lead by one point, from 3 points on our old weights to 4 points on our new weights.
As ever, we are keeping our methodology under constant review, and are actively looking at other areas such as how we deal with don't knows, how best to model likelihood to vote and keeping track of false recall in past vote.
The "the EU isn't important, no one cites it as a top issue" is a complete misreading of the data.
Sure few people put "the EU' as one of their issues. But when you think through what they actually care about - immigration is the obvious one - then when you consider solutions out relationship with the EU *has* to be part of the answer (whichever side of the argument you are on).
Once people focus on a vote, and if they come to the conclusion that the EU is indelibly linked to an important issue then it becomes an important topic for them. That is, I think, what has happened here.
Frankly, I don't think people are focusing upon the vote, most are sick and tired of hearing about it. When you here Boris ranting like a loony, and Dave talking nonsense, then for "good" measure you get the bar room bore Farage ranting, most sensible people switch off. Its got to the state that the truth has become lost, and in reality NOONE knows what would happen if we left.. Guesses can be made, but no one knows for sure.
That's probably true. But people who say "no one puts the EU as top of their list of issues therefore no one cares" are simply wrong.
It's like saying "no one cares about membership of the MPC, therefore no one cares about interest rate policy"
I heard on radio yesterday an economist who said that economists are 10 to 1 in favour of staying in because they know the economic damage that will be caused if we leave. An equally articulate Brexiteer said that economic forcasts are not an exact science.
The economist replied that that was true. He said no economist can tell you that the stock market will fall next Wednesday but what we can say with absolute certainty is that in the event of leaving it will collapse.
Which economist was that ?
It would be interesting to know what he was predicting in 2007.
I also remember being told that the stock market would collapse if Britain left the ERM in 1992.
Along with being told that three million people would lose their jobs, the car factories would shut down, the City would relocate to Frankfurt, there would be hyperinflation and sterling would become as worthless as the Ukrainian Coupon.
Professor John Fender but look at my reply to Runnymede for more complete details
They do say the purpose of Astrology is to give Economics a good name......
On topic, Alastair wins the internet today with this line
With Leave’s condemnations of the EU having moved from forthright to Fourth Reich over the weekend
With prominent Brexiteers calling for people to be sacked, and threatening civil unrest, it does not feel like a campaign imbued with winning confidence...
I wonder if we'll see a Kristallnacht against Remainers?
Frightening times.
Possibly one of worst attempts to take the moral high ground I've yet seen.
Try googling 'ukip shops smashed' and see what you get.
Mr. StJohn, a problem might be, if the polls are herding as some suggest, they'll likely herd around a Remain result, reducing the chances of the Leave price shortening.
Perhaps against the grain, I don't agree with much of Antifrank's latest offering. It's a bit rambling and condescending and, as usual, more than a few unsubtle digs and jibes at the LEAVE campaign which, if you don't think the public are that interested, won't matter as they won't have been noticed.
I think David Cameron, rather than Boris, is the key figure and apart from the picture, he's not mentioned at all. Everyone, even the disinterested, will know Cameron as Prime Minister and have a view on him a such so, whether he likes it or not, the EU Referendum provides a safe opportunity to give the Prime Minister and the Government a good kicking (like a by-election in all honesty).
We are told constantly REMAIN needs non-Conservative (and obviously non-UKIP) votes to win but will that nuance be picked up by the disinterested ? If Cameron's on one side and I don't like Cameron, I'll vote for the other side - simple (and of course vice versa).
Once again, the "lucky general" has other soldiers to fight for him in the battle even as many of his own side sit out the fight or are actively fighting for the other side.
I agree David Cameron is the key figure. It must rankle with some Labour voters . However if seeing him everyday gets to much for some, they might just sit it out. Or take the day off. He will have enough loyalists on his own side to make up their loss. Which will see him over the line for remain. Then the next day he will repair the Conservative Party job done.
Does that graph correlate with people getting excited with 'phone polls?
The simple truth is that nothing has changed since the start of the campaign. Whether the migration numbers, the Obama intervention, the IMF, the £8m/week loss to every family scare, or the absurd 77m Turks about overwhelm the NHS story, the polls remain absolutely and resolutely static: and they point to something around 54-46.
Remain will likely win this time. And Leave will likely win in a decade when we vote again.
Mr. 1000, I think too much is being assumed about a Leave vote in a second referendum in 10-15 years. If we Remain then that'll be a decade and a half of grasping tentacles and mass migration. Could easily have 3 million more people here, recent migrants who alter the electorate enough to tip the scales. If people are worried of the pain of leaving now, they may well be more fearful in the future.
The "the EU isn't important, no one cites it as a top issue" is a complete misreading of the data.
Once people focus on a vote, and if they come to the conclusion that the EU is indelibly linked to an important issue then it becomes an important topic for them. That is, I think, what has happened here.
Frankly, I don't think people are focusing upon the vote, most are sick and tired of hearing about it. When you here Boris ranting like a loony, and Dave talking nonsense, then for "good" measure you get the bar room bore Farage ranting, most sensible people switch off. Its got to the state that the truth has become lost, and in reality NOONE knows what would happen if we left.. Guesses can be made, but no one knows for sure.
That's probably true. But people who say "no one puts the EU as top of their list of issues therefore no one cares" are simply wrong.
It's like saying "no one cares about membership of the MPC, therefore no one cares about interest rate policy"
Which economist was that ?
It would be interesting to know what he was predicting in 2007.
I also remember being told that the stock market would collapse if Britain left the ERM in 1992.
Along with being told that three million people would lose their jobs, the car factories would shut down, the City would relocate to Frankfurt, there would be hyperinflation and sterling would become as worthless as the Ukrainian Coupon.
Professor John Fender but look at my reply to Runnymede for more complete details
They do say the purpose of Astrology is to give Economics a good name......
Carlotta. I saw your link to posters yesterday (which was very interesting) and came across this. It looks like Ken's Hitler obsession started as a young man
On topic, Alastair wins the internet today with this line
With Leave’s condemnations of the EU having moved from forthright to Fourth Reich over the weekend
With prominent Brexiteers calling for people to be sacked, and threatening civil unrest, it does not feel like a campaign imbued with winning confidence...
I wonder if we'll see a Kristallnacht against Remainers?
Frightening times.
That works both ways.
One feature of every time a good poll comes out for Remain is the gloating which includes silencing and shutting up the eurosceptics, a good dollop of insults, and claims that this will settle this for a generation.
If Remainers do behave with that level of arrogance post a Brexit win, in a party where they are the minority opinion amongst their voters and activists and with a pretty evenly split parliamentary party, it is not going to be pretty.
What arrogance is is Leavers are talking of violence on the street, second referendums and wanting a military coup. Now that's arrogance.
I'm going to respect the will of the people, whatever the result is. I hope you do too.
Like I said, it works both ways. I haven't called for violence or a military coup, nor have all but a small minority of Leavers.
I will thank my view on the verdict when it arrives, thank you.
John Whittingdale, the culture secretary, heads a list of Brexit ministers earmarked for the sack by David Cameron as he draws up plans for a post- referendum reshuffle.
Priti Patel, the employment minister, and Penny Mordaunt, the armed forces minister, are also judged to have abused their freedom to campaign to leave the EU. However, Chris Grayling, leader of the Commons, is set to keep his cabinet role after sticking to the rules that were supposed to limit criticism of government policy.
Mr. StJohn, a problem might be, if the polls are herding as some suggest, they'll likely herd around a Remain result, reducing the chances of the Leave price shortening.
Yes. Many risks to trading bets. But at 3.8 = 26% I'm more than happy to hold the bet if needs be as I rate it as value. My own sense of the % chances for the two sides is 60-70% REMAIN 30-40% LEAVE.
The one thing I thought was noteworthy yesterday was Farage saying that if it's a Remain vote then never mind because there'll be another vote one day - which prompted hysterical 'this is it forever, no more EU referendums ever' stuff from Dave and Heseltine and the like.
I think Remain are likely to win, just. The EU will gradually become more and more like a superstate or a failed state. And the benefits of our continued membership will look ever thinner. In 15 years' time a Leave vote looks more likely to win. If that is the clear view of a majority and the government of the day decides to legislate for a referendum accordingly then there will be one. Dave is being a tool.
I took Farage's point as nailing Cameron down - again. We've had two questions in the House doing the same. If Leave wins - it has to be a win, not some staging post for being asked again like Ireland et al.
Yes if leave by some miracle did win,against all the odds, and all the established parties except UKIP backing remain. I would bet there would be another meaningful re-negotiation , then another referendum, within 2 years.
Does that graph correlate with people getting excited with 'phone polls?
The simple truth is that nothing has changed since the start of the campaign. Whether the migration numbers, the Obama intervention, the IMF, the £8m/week loss to every family scare, or the absurd 77m Turks about overwhelm the NHS story, the polls remain absolutely and resolutely static: and they point to something around 54-46.
Remain will likely win this time. And Leave will likely win in a decade when we vote again.
PB may be waiting for detailed figures before responding to this huge poll. I'm not!
At 3.8-3.85 Leave's price is as big as it's been for quite a while - at the same time that they are ahead in this huge poll after the "very likely to vote" filter is applied. The current Leave price looks great value to me.
I'm on!
If the "very likely to vote" data is based only on voters' answers it is likely to be unreliable. People always overstate their likelihood to vote, and those most likely to overstate are in groups C2DE, which are also, of course, those groups more likely to back leave. Turnout is always higher amongst ABC1 - this has been true in every election and referendum for decades, and was a key factor in the No victory in the Indyref.
Mr. 1000, I think too much is being assumed about a Leave vote in a second referendum in 10-15 years. If we Remain then that'll be a decade and a half of grasping tentacles and mass migration. Could easily have 3 million more people here, recent migrants who alter the electorate enough to tip the scales. If people are worried of the pain of leaving now, they may well be more fearful in the future.
Two points:
1. Very few migrants - except those that married Brits - have become British. But even assuming they do go down that route, why would we assume that new Brits would be any less Eurosceptic than anyone else?
2. Do you believe the EU is going to become more or less popular in the next 15 years?
Really, the only reason why you would think the result would be worse for Leave in a decade's time is if you think the EU is going to become more popular over that time. Frankly, if you think it's going to become more popular, then you're on the wrong side of this debate.
Mr Hosie was, after all, mooted to be leading a summer initiative targeting No voters in a drive to push the case for independence. Such a move is seen as vital to retaining the support of the many Yes voters who joined the SNP after the referendum. Whether the initiative – or Mr Hosie's leadership of it – survives remains to be seen.
Surely Hosie is the perfect candidate to lead a campaign advocating divorce...
Our Zoomer friends have been remarkably quiet about this story.
Is that because with 2 MPs shagging the same woman, it falls under the SNP policy of "not criticising group decisions"?
Only slavering cretins like you would care a jot. I personally do not care what they are doing as long as it is not criminal and they are doing their jobs properly. It has however totally f**ked them and it will be the long grass for both no doubt. Especially Hosie given his wife is Sturgeon's best pal.
Does that graph correlate with people getting excited with 'phone polls?
The simple truth is that nothing has changed since the start of the campaign. Whether the migration numbers, the Obama intervention, the IMF, the £8m/week loss to every family scare, or the absurd 77m Turks about overwhelm the NHS story, the polls remain absolutely and resolutely static: and they point to something around 54-46.
Remain will likely win this time. And Leave will likely win in a decade when we vote again.
God, I hope so. This is killing me.
It's a bit nihilistic, but I probably won't live long enough to experience that - so it's less personal for me. I'm looking at this as protection of our country. Like owning land, we're merely custodians of it. Handing it over so obsequiously - and lying about it in a rigged campaign makes me so irked.
PB may be waiting for detailed figures before responding to this huge poll. I'm not!
At 3.8-3.85 Leave's price is as big as it's been for quite a while - at the same time that they are ahead in this huge poll after the "very likely to vote" filter is applied. The current Leave price looks great value to me.
I'm on!
I agree. I've been topping up at 3.75 and 3.8. Hoping to be matched at 3.85 and above.
It strikes me that the TV debates could bring about a sharp swing to Leave if there is an OMG Turks! moment.
With employment rates at a new all-time high, unemployment rates at a ten year low and vacancy rates touching all-time highs, it is clear that British workers are being crowded out of the market place.
Perhaps some of those more attuned to the niceties of Holyrood can advise:
Yesterday Nicola Sturgeon, the Scottish First Minister ignored the glares of a crammed Scottish Parliament by hugging her close friend Shona Robison, Mr Hosie’s wife.
But Miss Sturgeon refused to offer a single supportive word for Ms Robison’s husband after his admission that their marriage was over.
Mr. 1000, ahem, that's a good point on citizenship (my mistake).
On EU popularity, I disagree. It's not a question of whether people like it, but whether they fear the consequences of leaving more in 10-15 years than they do now, which I think they will after another decade or so of increasing entanglement.
Mr Hosie was, after all, mooted to be leading a summer initiative targeting No voters in a drive to push the case for independence. Such a move is seen as vital to retaining the support of the many Yes voters who joined the SNP after the referendum. Whether the initiative – or Mr Hosie's leadership of it – survives remains to be seen.
Surely Hosie is the perfect candidate to lead a campaign advocating divorce...
Our Zoomer friends have been remarkably quiet about this story.
Is that because with 2 MPs shagging the same woman, it falls under the SNP policy of "not criticising group decisions"?
Only slavering cretins like you would care a jot. I personally do not care what they are doing as long as it is not criminal and they are doing their jobs properly. It has however totally f**ked them and it will be the long grass for both no doubt. Especially Hosie given his wife is Sturgeon's best pal.
Still the Hosie Y-fronts story took the heat off the Kenny Mac/Megrahi/Blair love triangle..
@jimwaterson: It's a big day for Fitzalan Pursuivant Extraordinary, the Bluemantle Pusuivant and the Garter King of Arms. All great lads with top #banter.
@Ned_Donovan: @jimwaterson There is currently no Bluemantle Pursuivant of Arms in Ordinary, the office is vacant
"My Lords and members of the House of Commons, REMAIN standing, this won't take long .... My government will introduce measures to fix the vote for REMAIN to win the referendum.
With employment rates at a new all-time high, unemployment rates at a ten year low and vacancy rates touching all-time highs, it is clear that British workers are being crowded out of the market place.
Honestly, sometimes Leavers are beyond parody.
And yet over half of all jobs created in this country went to EU migrants and employment of EU migrants hit another all time high. You can't spin the facts.
Australia has a population of 23 million, so equivalent to about half a million migrants re-based to a UK population. Australia with its points system has twice the percapita immigration that we do. I recall the figures for Canada are pretty similar.
I believe the reason behind a points-based system is to sift based on quality, not quantity.
Is there a qualitatitve difference between the Australian and UK net migration?
I think only about a quarter of Australian migrants come through on the point based system. Most, like with immigration from the Indian subcontinent to the UK, comes via family connections and the like.
What makes my blood boil is that if one of these illegals manages to make it to the UK, then is granted asylum, suddenly there's a myriad of family members who have to be allowed in because of the 'right to a family life'
And of course they can then avail themselves of all the services free of charge and free of ever paying any taxes previously. There are always some genuine cases of course and we should certainly not turn our backs in those circumstances. As soon as the " right to family life" card is played you know it's as good as a scam. Remember the 3000 children we have just saved from the appalling, inhumane conditions of the life threatening war zone in northern France. No doubt families will follow under the right to a family life.
I have read that savvy migrants stay for just less than a year, *go home*, reclaim their tax and return. Is there evidence for this?
Never thought of that.
So, you get a huge tax free allowance (thanks LibDems), but only live and work here for part of the year, get X5 the rate in Poland, get treated for free on NHS for any ailments you might have and only have to pay British living costs for part of the year for only yourself because your family is back in Poland living cheaply.
That's a pretty good explanation of why the passenger survey immigration numbers don't tally with the NINo issuance.
No wonder our own low-skilled Labour can't compete with that.
With employment rates at a new all-time high, unemployment rates at a ten year low and vacancy rates touching all-time highs, it is clear that British workers are being crowded out of the market place.
Honestly, sometimes Leavers are beyond parody.
Oh don't be bashful young Meeks, when it comes to beyond paody you're in a league of your own
There will, with 100% certainty in my view, be another serious recession in the next 10-15 years. (Actually I think in the next 1 or 2 years and with a market event sooner than that, like ASAP). This recession will be a denouement for the Euro, the Euro banking system and most importantly of all for Italy. Italy is trapped. It's debt/GDP is structurally unable to recover and they're steadily de-industrialising. Draghi is out of firepower and the ECB cannot be a lender of last resort to an Italian sized failure. They've played pretend and extend for a LONG time now without fundamentally fixing the Eurozone. My own waters tell me that we're approaching the endgame. The end result might be a fully and formally joined Eurozone superstate (I suspect imposed by the elites over the non-concurrence of the people). But I doubt it. Fracture and a return to the status-quo-ante on currency for some countries is more likely. Especially Italy.
And where will all that leave a new referendum in 10-15 years?
@MaxPB And the rest of the jobs created? Who did the rest of the jobs go to?
The idea that British workers are being crowded out of the workplace is lacking hard evidence. But I'm sure truthiness will trump statistics every time.
Between Jan-Mar 2015 & Jan-Mar 2016 employment increased by 409k & unemployment fell by 139k
EU employment rose by 224k, over half of all jobs created went to an EU immigrant. Employment for EU immigrants rose to 2.15m an all time high.
Please look at the data before jumping to conclusions.
Boom tish.
Why? It doesn't challenge Alastair's point. Unemployment is falling for British nationals. There's no evidence that EU migrants are pushing British born workers out of the market.
Mr Hosie was, after all, mooted to be leading a summer initiative targeting No voters in a drive to push the case for independence. Such a move is seen as vital to retaining the support of the many Yes voters who joined the SNP after the referendum. Whether the initiative – or Mr Hosie's leadership of it – survives remains to be seen.
Surely Hosie is the perfect candidate to lead a campaign advocating divorce...
Our Zoomer friends have been remarkably quiet about this story.
Is that because with 2 MPs shagging the same woman, it falls under the SNP policy of "not criticising group decisions"?
Only slavering cretins like you would care a jot. I personally do not care what they are doing as long as it is not criminal and they are doing their jobs properly. It has however totally f**ked them and it will be the long grass for both no doubt. Especially Hosie given his wife is Sturgeon's best pal.
Still the Hosie Y-fronts story took the heat off the Kenny Mac/Megrahi/Blair love triangle..
Took Ayr United getting to the Championship off as well. If Killie go down the Championship will be excellent next year.
With employment rates at a new all-time high, unemployment rates at a ten year low and vacancy rates touching all-time highs, it is clear that British workers are being crowded out of the market place.
Honestly, sometimes Leavers are beyond parody.
Don't forget wages up 2% versus inflation of 0.5% shows the downward pressure on wages produced by all the nasty foreigners moving here.
Mr Hosie was, after all, mooted to be leading a summer initiative targeting No voters in a drive to push the case for independence. Such a move is seen as vital to retaining the support of the many Yes voters who joined the SNP after the referendum. Whether the initiative – or Mr Hosie's leadership of it – survives remains to be seen.
Surely Hosie is the perfect candidate to lead a campaign advocating divorce...
Our Zoomer friends have been remarkably quiet about this story.
Is that because with 2 MPs shagging the same woman, it falls under the SNP policy of "not criticising group decisions"?
Only slavering cretins like you would care a jot. I personally do not care what they are doing as long as it is not criminal and they are doing their jobs properly. It has however totally f**ked them and it will be the long grass for both no doubt. Especially Hosie given his wife is Sturgeon's best pal.
Still the Hosie Y-fronts story took the heat off the Kenny Mac/Megrahi/Blair love triangle..
Took Ayr United getting to the Championship off as well. If Killie go down the Championship will be excellent next year.
Perhaps some of those more attuned to the niceties of Holyrood can advise:
Yesterday Nicola Sturgeon, the Scottish First Minister ignored the glares of a crammed Scottish Parliament by hugging her close friend Shona Robison, Mr Hosie’s wife.
But Miss Sturgeon refused to offer a single supportive word for Ms Robison’s husband after his admission that their marriage was over.
Mr Hosie was, after all, mooted to be leading a summer initiative targeting No voters in a drive to push the case for independence. Such a move is seen as vital to retaining the support of the many Yes voters who joined the SNP after the referendum. Whether the initiative – or Mr Hosie's leadership of it – survives remains to be seen.
Surely Hosie is the perfect candidate to lead a campaign advocating divorce...
Our Zoomer friends have been remarkably quiet about this story.
Is that because with 2 MPs shagging the same woman, it falls under the SNP policy of "not criticising group decisions"?
Only slavering cretins like you would care a jot. I personally do not care what they are doing as long as it is not criminal and they are doing their jobs properly. It has however totally f**ked them and it will be the long grass for both no doubt. Especially Hosie given his wife is Sturgeon's best pal.
Still the Hosie Y-fronts story took the heat off the Kenny Mac/Megrahi/Blair love triangle..
Took Ayr United getting to the Championship off as well. If Killie go down the Championship will be excellent next year.
Who cares - the big show is back in the big time.
Not yet. Liverpool haven't won the Europa League yet.
With employment rates at a new all-time high, unemployment rates at a ten year low and vacancy rates touching all-time highs, it is clear that British workers are being crowded out of the market place.
Honestly, sometimes Leavers are beyond parody.
Many Eastern Europeans working at your law firm as lawyers, Alastair?
If the answer is zero, please desist from lecturing those in jobs that see the effect of immigration at rather closer distance.
There are also 1.7m underemployed people who are either temporarily employed or doing part time work that want full time permanent positions, this is down from 1.85m a year ago.
Still, no denying that this is a great set of figures again, so much for "brexit hits employment" like last month. I wonder how the chancellor will try to use these figures against the leave campaign. Alastair's response gives some insight, but when over half of all jobs created are going to EU migrants I'm not sure how well it would go down.
With employment rates at a new all-time high, unemployment rates at a ten year low and vacancy rates touching all-time highs, it is clear that British workers are being crowded out of the market place.
Honestly, sometimes Leavers are beyond parody.
It's rare to get applications from British workers if you advertise a clerical accounts job in London (which I do quite often) in my experience. Either they have all got jobs already or they are too lazy to get off their a*s* and apply. In which case you wouldn't want to employ them anyway.
Between Jan-Mar 2015 & Jan-Mar 2016 employment increased by 409k & unemployment fell by 139k
EU employment rose by 224k, over half of all jobs created went to an EU immigrant. Employment for EU immigrants rose to 2.15m an all time high.
Please look at the data before jumping to conclusions.
Boom tish.
Why? It doesn't challenge Alastair's point. Unemployment is falling for British nationals. There's no evidence that EU migrants are pushing British born workers out of the market.
Unemployment fell by 2000
It didnt fall by 200,000
And as for the issue of jobs as has been pointed out many time if better qualified foeigners are competing for jobs thed Brit aint going to get the job so he gets one with a lower salary
Comments
How many economists predicted the credit crunch?
Groupthink.
Any regulated individual who said that would (probably) be in breach of the terms of their registration.
It is likely that it will fall (my guess is 5-6%) and then will recover over a 6 month period as there is increased clarity.
The counterargument is that Brexit dislocation will result in interest rates remaining lower for longer, thereby providing underpinning for equity prices due to a lack of alternative investment opportunities.
(I don't care, though, as my portfolio is structured on an absolute return basis: RPI+5% is good enough for me; I'm not greedy)
My apologies Casino this was not directed at you.
Let's knock this nonsense on the head right now. Corbyn contributed nothing to the peace process. He opposed key steps in the peace process, such as the Anglo-Irish Agreement. He did not have any dialogue designed to bring parties together. He supported one terrorist group which sought to bomb its way to a United Ireland contrary to the democratically expressed wishes of the population of Northern Ireland. He never engaged in dialogue with Unionists.
There were plenty of people who engaged in dialogue, who laid the groundwork for what has been achieved over a long period of time. Corbyn was not one of them. Nor was McDonnell. For either of them to try and pretend or claim that they were one of the foot soldiers who helped bring peace is not just untrue, it is insulting to those who did take such steps. It is dishonest and as morally repulsive as their support for men of violence who brought such misery to so many people for such a long time.
Frightening times.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/English_cricket_team_in_North_America_in_1859
Perhaps against the grain, I don't agree with much of Antifrank's latest offering. It's a bit rambling and condescending and, as usual, more than a few unsubtle digs and jibes at the LEAVE campaign which, if you don't think the public are that interested, won't matter as they won't have been noticed.
I think David Cameron, rather than Boris, is the key figure and apart from the picture, he's not mentioned at all. Everyone, even the disinterested, will know Cameron as Prime Minister and have a view on him a such so, whether he likes it or not, the EU Referendum provides a safe opportunity to give the Prime Minister and the Government a good kicking (like a by-election in all honesty).
We are told constantly REMAIN needs non-Conservative (and obviously non-UKIP) votes to win but will that nuance be picked up by the disinterested ? If Cameron's on one side and I don't like Cameron, I'll vote for the other side - simple (and of course vice versa).
Once again, the "lucky general" has other soldiers to fight for him in the battle even as many of his own side sit out the fight or are actively fighting for the other side.
Oh wait !
The fashion police, on the other hand...
Nasty, brutal and short.
It would be interesting to know what he was predicting in 2007.
I also remember being told that the stock market would collapse if Britain left the ERM in 1992.
Along with being told that three million people would lose their jobs, the car factories would shut down, the City would relocate to Frankfurt, there would be hyperinflation and sterling would become as worthless as the Ukrainian Coupon.
After all our family motto is "in difficulty"
We have made a slight change in our methodology since our previous poll. While our polls at the Scottish, Welsh and London elections were generally very accurate, one consistent flaw was that we had UKIP too high. Investigating this error appears to be related to the switch from weighting by party ID to weighting by past vote. Comparing our sample to the British Election Study people in our polls who voted for "establishment" parties like the Conservatives and Labour in 2015 were not likely enough to also identify with the party, people who voted for "challenger" parties like UKIP and the Greens in 2015 were too likely to identify strongly with them.
To address this we have added an extra weight by whether respondents generally identify with one of the main established parties, whether they identify with one of the smaller, newer parties, or whether they don't have any strong party identification. The impact of this is to slightly reduce the level of UKIP support in our voting intention figures and slightly increase support for Britain remaining in the European Union. In today's poll the change has increased Remain's lead by one point, from 3 points on our old weights to 4 points on our new weights.
As ever, we are keeping our methodology under constant review, and are actively looking at other areas such as how we deal with don't knows, how best to model likelihood to vote and keeping track of false recall in past vote.
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/05/18/eu-referendum-remain-lead-four/
No - you can't say that the stock exchange will collapse with absolute certainty.
Any regulated individual who said that would (probably) be in breach of the terms of their registration.
It is likely that it will fall (my guess is 5-6%) and then will recover over a 6 month period as there is increased clarity.
The counterargument is that Brexit dislocation will result in interest rates remaining lower for longer, thereby providing underpinning for equity prices due to a lack of alternative investment opportunities.
(I don't care, though, as my portfolio is structured on an absolute return basis: RPI+5% is good enough for me; I'm not greedy)
--------------------------
Well you would think that if this was a risk, we would already see it in the price, no?
Let's assume the market agrees with Betfair that Brexit is a 30% chance - if so you would expect this 30% chance of a 'collapse' (which is what? -10%? -20%?) to be already priced in.
And yet since the referendum announcement on Feb 20, the FTSE allshare is up 4%, a better performance than the Eurozone stock indices...
Verstappen winning in Spain, for example.
One feature of every time a good poll comes out for Remain is the gloating which includes silencing and shutting up the eurosceptics, a good dollop of insults, and claims that this will settle this for a generation.
If Remainers do behave with that level of arrogance post a Brexit win, in a party where they are the minority opinion amongst their voters and activists and with a pretty evenly split parliamentary party, it is not going to be pretty.
I'm going to respect the will of the people, whatever the result is. I hope you do too.
http://www.itv.com/news/2016-05-17/boris-johnson-slips-up-over-absurd-eu-rules-on-bananas/
A pattern is recognisable here - Boris has vaguely read something about the EU and banana bunches, and gets it precisely wrong because he doesn't bother to check. He could actually make a legitimate point that it's silly for the EU to have a rule on the size of banana bunches at all - I'd agree with that. But he says the rule that they have to be small when in fact it's that they have to be big.
That chimes with what I remember of him in Parliament. He's lazy and has got used to the idea that he doesn't need to bother with details because he can wing it with generalised statements, bluster and jovial apologies when necessary. Many of us are exactly like that on issues we don't care about, but it's a seriously bad trait in a potential PM.
I think Remain are likely to win, just. The EU will gradually become more and more like a superstate or a failed state. And the benefits of our continued membership will look ever thinner. In 15 years' time a Leave vote looks more likely to win. If that is the clear view of a majority and the government of the day decides to legislate for a referendum accordingly then there will be one. Dave is being a tool.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b07bbvzb
PB may be waiting for detailed figures before responding to this huge poll. I'm not!
At 3.8-3.85 Leave's price is as big as it's been for quite a while - at the same time that they are ahead in this huge poll after the "very likely to vote" filter is applied. The current Leave price looks great value to me.
I'm on!
London Mayor FPTP: Con (-3.1) Lab (-1.2) Grn (+1.2) LD (+1.4) UKIP (+3.4) Oth (-1.6)
ScotCon: SNP(+1.5) Lab (-0.6), Con (-3) LD (-0.8) Oth (+2.9)
ScotReg: SNP (-0.7) Lab (-0.1) Con (-2.9) LD (+0.8) Grn (+2.4) UKIP (+2)
WalesCon: PC (+0.5) Lab (-1.7) Con (-2.1) LD (+0.3) UKIP (+3.5)
WalesList: PC (+0.8) Lab (-0.5) Con (+0.2) LD (+0.5) UKIP (+3.5) Oth (-6)
GE2015: Con (-3.8) Lab (+2.8) LD (+1.9) UKIP (-0.9) Grn (+1.2) Oth (-0.3)
EE2014: Con (-1.9) Lab (+0.6) LD (+2.1) UKIP (-0.5) Oth (-0.3)
They are always chasing the trend rather than ahead of it.
YouGov #EURef poll finds 60% of ABC1s back IN compared with 41% C2DEs. So most affluent want REMAIN.
As we saw with SINDYRef - those who are doing best out of the status quo keenest to preserve it......
Try googling 'ukip shops smashed' and see what you get.
Here's a free sample:
http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/ukip-under-siege-3-attacks-week-nigel-farage-supporters-property-election-looms-1496760
It must rankle with some Labour voters .
However if seeing him everyday gets to much for some, they might just sit it out.
Or take the day off.
He will have enough loyalists on his own side to make up their loss.
Which will see him over the line for remain.
Then the next day he will repair the Conservative Party job done.
Remain will likely win this time. And Leave will likely win in a decade when we vote again.
http://www.theguardian.com/artanddesign/2015/apr/03/the-10-best-british-political-posters#img-4
I will thank my view on the verdict when it arrives, thank you.
@ONS · 18s19 seconds ago
Between Jan-Mar 2015 & Jan-Mar 2016 employment increased by 409k & unemployment fell by 139k
For Jan-Mar 2016 wages up 2.0% on a year earlier including bonuses, & 2.1% excluding bonuses http://ow.ly/GmmX300jHb8
I presume he wants to get the vote of confidence out of the way sooner rather than later.
I would bet there would be another meaningful re-negotiation , then another referendum, within 2 years.
If we negotiate a crappy exit deal, we can't "vote for a different one"
If we leave, that's it.
Please look at the data before jumping to conclusions.
1. Very few migrants - except those that married Brits - have become British. But even assuming they do go down that route, why would we assume that new Brits would be any less Eurosceptic than anyone else?
2. Do you believe the EU is going to become more or less popular in the next 15 years?
Really, the only reason why you would think the result would be worse for Leave in a decade's time is if you think the EU is going to become more popular over that time. Frankly, if you think it's going to become more popular, then you're on the wrong side of this debate.
It strikes me that the TV debates could bring about a sharp swing to Leave if there is an OMG Turks! moment.
Honestly, sometimes Leavers are beyond parody.
On EU popularity, I disagree. It's not a question of whether people like it, but whether they fear the consequences of leaving more in 10-15 years than they do now, which I think they will after another decade or so of increasing entanglement.
@Ned_Donovan: @jimwaterson There is currently no Bluemantle Pursuivant of Arms in Ordinary, the office is vacant
@Ned_Donovan: @jimwaterson do you not read the College of Arms newsletter, Jim?
"My Lords and members of the House of Commons, REMAIN standing, this won't take long ....
My government will introduce measures to fix the vote for REMAIN to win the referendum.
Other measures will not be brought before you."
You might be correct.
But from past experience when referendums have been lost, they go back again to change the result.
So, you get a huge tax free allowance (thanks LibDems), but only live and work here for part of the year, get X5 the rate in Poland, get treated for free on NHS for any ailments you might have and only have to pay British living costs for part of the year for only yourself because your family is back in Poland living cheaply.
That's a pretty good explanation of why the passenger survey immigration numbers don't tally with the NINo issuance.
No wonder our own low-skilled Labour can't compete with that.
It's the narcissism does it.
And where will all that leave a new referendum in 10-15 years?
The idea that British workers are being crowded out of the workplace is lacking hard evidence. But I'm sure truthiness will trump statistics every time.
...Come away in. You'll have had yer tea then?
If the answer is zero, please desist from lecturing those in jobs that see the effect of immigration at rather closer distance.
Still, no denying that this is a great set of figures again, so much for "brexit hits employment" like last month. I wonder how the chancellor will try to use these figures against the leave campaign. Alastair's response gives some insight, but when over half of all jobs created are going to EU migrants I'm not sure how well it would go down.
It didnt fall by 200,000
And as for the issue of jobs as has been pointed out many time if better qualified foeigners are competing for jobs thed Brit aint going to get the job so he gets one with a lower salary
Our latest#euref poll out later in @standardnews - an interesting one!
'Interesting' poll klazon!!!
I appreciate that you have a very truthy vision of the world, but try letting it collide with reality once in a while.