With employment rates at a new all-time high, unemployment rates at a ten year low and vacancy rates touching all-time highs, it is clear that British workers are being crowded out of the market place.
Honestly, sometimes Leavers are beyond parody.
Don't forget wages up 2% versus inflation of 0.5% shows the downward pressure on wages produced by all the nasty foreigners moving here.
Which takes absolutely no account of the rates of self-employed plumbers, electricians, etc.
Between Jan-Mar 2015 & Jan-Mar 2016 employment increased by 409k & unemployment fell by 139k
EU employment rose by 224k, over half of all jobs created went to an EU immigrant. Employment for EU immigrants rose to 2.15m an all time high.
Please look at the data before jumping to conclusions.
Boom tish.
Why? It doesn't challenge Alastair's point. Unemployment is falling for British nationals. There's no evidence that EU migrants are pushing British born workers out of the market.
Unemployment fell by 2000
It didnt fall by 200,000
And as for the issue of jobs as has been pointed out many time if better qualified foeigners are competing for jobs thed Brit aint going to get the job so he gets one with a lower salary
You're mixing and matching comparisons on a three monthly basis and those on a yearly basis.
BTW .... had an e-mail that among various Jacobite Super PAC fundraising activities noted that the Tuesday print editions of the Daily Express failed to carry any coverage of the Leicester FC celebrations from the previous day. Most odd.
Any confirmation from PB readers of that august organ?
PB may be waiting for detailed figures before responding to this huge poll. I'm not!
At 3.8-3.85 Leave's price is as big as it's been for quite a while - at the same time that they are ahead in this huge poll after the "very likely to vote" filter is applied. The current Leave price looks great value to me.
I'm on!
If the "very likely to vote" data is based only on voters' answers it is likely to be unreliable. People always overstate their likelihood to vote, and those most likely to overstate are in groups C2DE, which are also, of course, those groups more likely to back leave. Turnout is always higher amongst ABC1 - this has been true in every election and referendum for decades, and was a key factor in the No victory in the Indyref.
May be the BES is large enough that someone can do a cross tab analysis of the AB/Elderly split. I recall this was discussed previously [i.e. where does the AB vote come from and will that be affected by an old/young split]?
I think it could be a good angle for a thread, but beyond my expertise to write.
There are also 1.7m underemployed people who are either temporarily employed or doing part time work that want full time permanent positions, this is down from 1.85m a year ago.
Still, no denying that this is a great set of figures again, so much for "brexit hits employment" like last month. I wonder how the chancellor will try to use these figures against the leave campaign. Alastair's response gives some insight, but when over half of all jobs created are going to EU migrants I'm not sure how well it would go down.
There's also the quality of jobs. If you're employing someone with better quals/more ambition from Eastern EU, they're more likely to get on, become better paid and displace the local population. It just sidelines so many here.
There are also 1.7m underemployed people who are either temporarily employed or doing part time work that want full time permanent positions, this is down from 1.85m a year ago.
Still, no denying that this is a great set of figures again, so much for "brexit hits employment" like last month. I wonder how the chancellor will try to use these figures against the leave campaign. Alastair's response gives some insight, but when over half of all jobs created are going to EU migrants I'm not sure how well it would go down.
Yes, no doubt had unemployment been up, this would have been a pro-EU story as well. Just a different one.
In fact, whatever the numbers were, Osborne and the amateur spinners on here would have called it a pro-EU story.
Our latest#euref poll out later in @standardnews - an interesting one!
'Interesting' poll klazon!!!
You would think an "interesting" phone poll has a move to Leave? But more likely just poll hype and it's as-you-were (and an interesting supplemental about the EU and cat food).
Alastair's excellent article is being misunderstood (what a surprise). The point is that floating voters - the voters whom either campaign might have a chance of persuading to vote for them - are interested in different aspects of the question of EU membership than committed Leavers and Remainers.
Many of those passionate about what they see as the absolute need to leave the EU seem to find this rather simple point extremely difficult to understand. That's why they bang on about an 'EU Superstate', sovereignty, a possible Bill of Rights, the ECJ, and so on. These are of course crucially important issues to many of those who are already certain to vote Leave, but they are (almost be definition) of little salience to those who might yet be won over.
Trump will almost certainly beat Dubya's 12,034,676 votes in 2000 now (CA should do it on it's own with ~ 1 million Trump votes) currently on 11,230,677
@Alanbrooke But wages are rising well ahead of inflation too.
I appreciate that you have a very truthy vision of the world, but try letting it collide with reality once in a while.
well ahead ? Over the last 10 years wages haven't risen that much, we are experiencing a period of catch back and the analysis has yet to be seen, but if there is a lump of annualised wages having to reflect the living wage, then it isn't true wage growth but legal fiat driving wages.
I've already had my first price increases from suppliers based on the living wage.
And as I keep pointing out your reality in London is very different from mine in the Midlands. Try broadening your horizons occasionally.
@MaxPB And the rest of the jobs created? Who did the rest of the jobs go to?
The idea that British workers are being crowded out of the workplace is lacking hard evidence. But I'm sure truthiness will trump statistics every time.
So half of all new jobs going to 5% of the population is proportionally balanced?
Between Jan-Mar 2015 & Jan-Mar 2016 employment increased by 409k & unemployment fell by 139k
EU employment rose by 224k, over half of all jobs created went to an EU immigrant. Employment for EU immigrants rose to 2.15m an all time high.
Please look at the data before jumping to conclusions.
Boom tish.
Why? It doesn't challenge Alastair's point. Unemployment is falling for British nationals. There's no evidence that EU migrants are pushing British born workers out of the market.
Unemployment fell by 2000
It didnt fall by 200,000
And as for the issue of jobs as has been pointed out many time if better qualified foeigners are competing for jobs thed Brit aint going to get the job so he gets one with a lower salary
You're mixing and matching comparisons on a three monthly basis and those on a yearly basis.
no I'm merely pointing out a 2000 fall is nothing to crow about.
With employment rates at a new all-time high, unemployment rates at a ten year low and vacancy rates touching all-time highs, it is clear that British workers are being crowded out of the market place.
Honestly, sometimes Leavers are beyond parody.
Don't forget wages up 2% versus inflation of 0.5% shows the downward pressure on wages produced by all the nasty foreigners moving here.
Actually 2% wage growth is quite poor, historically UK wage growth has been around 3-4.5% YoY, it started to dip around 2005 and never recovered to those levels. I wonder why.
I see that Guido has an expose on Lab's Cat Smith over her election returns. This could easily turn into expenses part 2 with all parties having problems.
I must admit I do have a little sympathy for the politicos as the spending limit seems very low
With employment rates at a new all-time high, unemployment rates at a ten year low and vacancy rates touching all-time highs, it is clear that British workers are being crowded out of the market place.
Honestly, sometimes Leavers are beyond parody.
Don't forget wages up 2% versus inflation of 0.5% shows the downward pressure on wages produced by all the nasty foreigners moving here.
Didn't the National Living Wage come into force recently?
So a statutory increase has replaced a market rate fall, maybe?
Does that graph correlate with people getting excited with 'phone polls?
The simple truth is that nothing has changed since the start of the campaign. Whether the migration numbers, the Obama intervention, the IMF, the £8m/week loss to every family scare, or the absurd 77m Turks about overwhelm the NHS story, the polls remain absolutely and resolutely static: and they point to something around 54-46.
Remain will likely win this time. And Leave will likely win in a decade when we vote again.
God, I hope so. This is killing me.
It's a bit nihilistic, but I probably won't live long enough to experience that - so it's less personal for me. I'm looking at this as protection of our country. Like owning land, we're merely custodians of it. Handing it over so obsequiously - and lying about it in a rigged campaign makes me so irked.
@MaxPB And the rest of the jobs created? Who did the rest of the jobs go to?
The idea that British workers are being crowded out of the workplace is lacking hard evidence. But I'm sure truthiness will trump statistics every time.
So half of all new jobs going to 5% of the population is proportionally balanced?
I see that Guido has an expose on Lab's Cat Smith over her election returns. This could easily turn into expenses part 2 with all parties having problems.
I must admit I do have a little sympathy for the politicos as the spending limit seems very low
I think there will have less of public outcry, because they aren't spending our money (well they are a bit, but not as directly as expenses). It is mostly private donations and union money.
Well the Ipsos Mori poll isn't a below the margin of error change.
What time is it out ?
I think that the first printed editions hit the streets around 11am so presumably at or around then? Unless they hold back for a later edition (does the standard still print later editions?)
@Alanbrooke But wages are rising well ahead of inflation too.
I appreciate that you have a very truthy vision of the world, but try letting it collide with reality once in a while.
well ahead ? Over the last 10 years wages haven't risen that much, we are experiencing a period of catch back and the analysis has yet to be seen, but if there is a lump of annualised wages having to reflect the living wage, then it isn't true wage growth but legal fiat driving wages.
I've already had my first price increases from suppliers based on the living wage.
And as I keep pointing out your reality in London is very different from mine in the Midlands. Try broadening your horizons occasionally.
If only everyone earned £500k, owned two overseas homes and had a heated swimming pool.
The only thing I can think of is a phone poll with Leave within the MoE of Remain, so 2-3 points behind. That or Remain pulling out a huge lead of 20 points.
With employment rates at a new all-time high, unemployment rates at a ten year low and vacancy rates touching all-time highs, it is clear that British workers are being crowded out of the market place.
Honestly, sometimes Leavers are beyond parody.
Don't forget wages up 2% versus inflation of 0.5% shows the downward pressure on wages produced by all the nasty foreigners moving here.
Actually 2% wage growth is quite poor, historically UK wage growth has been around 3-4.5% YoY, it started to dip around 2005 and never recovered to those levels. I wonder why.
Its all nominal though. As long as inflation stays low, a 2% nominal increase and inflation of 0.5% feels similar to 3.5% pay with inflation at 2%.
We've also had the introduction of statutory work place pensions since 2005 which I guess has diverted some money that would have gone to pay rises into pensions. Not good for the AWE figures but good for the long term.
The only thing I can think of is a phone poll with Leave within the MoE of Remain, so 2-3 points behind. That or Remain pulling out a huge lead of 20 points.
I don't know if anyone else has got this but the EU referendum voting guide dropped on my doormat yesterday from the Electoral Commission.
It including a double page spread from both campaigns.
The Remain one was professional, glossy with safer, stronger and better off in backed by all the big numbers from the CBI/Treasury etc. and some pictures of a smiling family. They have also now started to link the NHS to it.
The Leave one had far more text and detail (and no picture) but did major on one chance to take control, and emphasised the cost, migration, inability to do trade deals and "power" penalties of remaining in the EU.
I don't know how much effect it will have but it should mean that most people are now starting to become aware of the arguments.
I see that Guido has an expose on Lab's Cat Smith over her election returns. This could easily turn into expenses part 2 with all parties having problems.
I must admit I do have a little sympathy for the politicos as the spending limit seems very low
I think there will have less of public outcry, because they aren't spending our money (well they are a bit, but not as directly as expenses). It is mostly private donations and union money.
Equally, if 'all parties' are at it - there is much less incentive for them to throw sh*t at each other. Galling for minor parties such as mine that are miles below the limit but take real care to include everything carefully to make sure that we're doing the right thing.
The only thing I can think of is a phone poll with Leave within the MoE of Remain, so 2-3 points behind. That or Remain pulling out a huge lead of 20 points.
One of those or something else.
Maybe!
Though I would guess a 2-3 point Remain lead. Remain down 4, Leave up 3.
We have made a slight change in our methodology since our previous poll. While our polls at the Scottish, Welsh and London elections were generally very accurate, one consistent flaw was that we had UKIP too high. Investigating this error appears to be related to the switch from weighting by party ID to weighting by past vote. Comparing our sample to the British Election Study people in our polls who voted for "establishment" parties like the Conservatives and Labour in 2015 were not likely enough to also identify with the party, people who voted for "challenger" parties like UKIP and the Greens in 2015 were too likely to identify strongly with them.
To address this we have added an extra weight by whether respondents generally identify with one of the main established parties, whether they identify with one of the smaller, newer parties, or whether they don't have any strong party identification. The impact of this is to slightly reduce the level of UKIP support in our voting intention figures and slightly increase support for Britain remaining in the European Union. In today's poll the change has increased Remain's lead by one point, from 3 points on our old weights to 4 points on our new weights.
As ever, we are keeping our methodology under constant review, and are actively looking at other areas such as how we deal with don't knows, how best to model likelihood to vote and keeping track of false recall in past vote.
The only thing I can think of is a phone poll with Leave within the MoE of Remain, so 2-3 points behind. That or Remain pulling out a huge lead of 20 points.
One of those or something else.
Maybe!
Though I would guess a 2-3 point Remain lead. Remain down 4, Leave up 3.
@MaxPB And the rest of the jobs created? Who did the rest of the jobs go to?
The idea that British workers are being crowded out of the workplace is lacking hard evidence. But I'm sure truthiness will trump statistics every time.
So half of all new jobs going to 5% of the population is proportionally balanced?
LOL
its Meekonomics
Along with letting our farming industry die as we can import it all, and telling everyone in rural areas to pay more or move to cities. It's an extremely metropolitan 'Let them eat quinoa' view.
With employment rates at a new all-time high, unemployment rates at a ten year low and vacancy rates touching all-time highs, it is clear that British workers are being crowded out of the market place.
Honestly, sometimes Leavers are beyond parody.
Don't forget wages up 2% versus inflation of 0.5% shows the downward pressure on wages produced by all the nasty foreigners moving here.
Didn't the National Living Wage come into force recently?
So a statutory increase has replaced a market rate fall, maybe?
I think todays figures are only up to March 2016 and NLW was introduced April 2016. You are right however that next months figures will be interesting. Sadly until we get the ASHE household earnings in November the level of detail on pay we have is relatively limited.
With employment rates at a new all-time high, unemployment rates at a ten year low and vacancy rates touching all-time highs, it is clear that British workers are being crowded out of the market place.
Honestly, sometimes Leavers are beyond parody.
Don't forget wages up 2% versus inflation of 0.5% shows the downward pressure on wages produced by all the nasty foreigners moving here.
Actually 2% wage growth is quite poor, historically UK wage growth has been around 3-4.5% YoY, it started to dip around 2005 and never recovered to those levels. I wonder why.
Good to see some good lines still in the cupboard for the 54th Antifrank referendum piece:
"With Leave’s condemnations of the EU having moved from forthright to Fourth Reich"
"Some of these arguments look tangential to the question of EU membership. Hell, some of these arguments are tangential to the question of EU membership." - Yes, I don't sense a richness of practical, relevant and important bellwether examples of how the EU / ECJ binds us (or indeed much on how it helps us) that would have been an eye opener for me and actually given me some sense of the enormity they are on about.
Much of the EU debate sits very comfortably alongside Elf & Safety, bin emptying in Tunbridge Wells (or Tameside even, if you must), road cones and hotlines, plastic bag tax, the multiple daily claims of political correctness gone mad, the raging at every quango / NGO / charity, or the voicing of fears of everything going to the dogs expanded to the nth degree. I think if we look at the Brexiteers, it would probably be fair and uncontroversial to say that we find the type of people, often grumpy old men, who are highly sensitive to those little bits of grit in daily life, and would have pretty strong opinions on many of these other matters.
Sometimes the balance of wider public opinion has some empathy with grumpy old annoyance, and other times just thinks 'shut up and get over it'. And it is a 'Leave = empathy, Remain = shut up and get over it' gut feeling amongst the uncommitted that will drive quite a number of votes. For that reason, I don't think a silly, shouty, bad tempered debate, even when a fair proportion of that silliness comes from Remain, necessarily helps Leave, because it drives a 'Shut up and get over it' mentality.
@MaxPB And the rest of the jobs created? Who did the rest of the jobs go to?
The idea that British workers are being crowded out of the workplace is lacking hard evidence. But I'm sure truthiness will trump statistics every time.
So half of all new jobs going to 5% of the population is proportionally balanced?
LOL
its Meekonomics
The new PB Laureate. I saw the thread late but some fine limericks. The first one was a definite keeper
I don't know if anyone else has got this but the EU referendum voting guide dropped on my doormat yesterday from the Electoral Commission.
It including a double page spread from both campaigns.
The Remain one was professional, glossy with safer, stronger and better off in backed by all the big numbers from the CBI/Treasury etc. and some pictures of a smiling family. They have also now started to link the NHS to it.
The Leave one had far more text and detail (and no picture) but did major on one chance to take control, and emphasised the cost, migration, inability to do trade deals and "power" penalties of remaining in the EU.
I don't know how much effect it will have but it should mean that most people are now starting to become aware of the arguments.
Yes, it was interesting. The Remain page definitely won in terms of appearance and punchiness - it uses colour photos, and two text colours (red and blue, with blue prominent), whereas the Leave page is dense text and (rather oddly) only uses one colour - red.
On the other hand, the Leave text was on-message in repeating the 'take control' line repeatedly.
@ScottyNational: Reshuffle: Sturgeon to announce new post of 'Scandals Minister' to consolidate daily SNP scandals into one area - 'Our busiest portfolio'
With employment rates at a new all-time high, unemployment rates at a ten year low and vacancy rates touching all-time highs, it is clear that British workers are being crowded out of the market place.
Honestly, sometimes Leavers are beyond parody.
Don't forget wages up 2% versus inflation of 0.5% shows the downward pressure on wages produced by all the nasty foreigners moving here.
Actually 2% wage growth is quite poor, historically UK wage growth has been around 3-4.5% YoY, it started to dip around 2005 and never recovered to those levels. I wonder why.
Yes, but inflation was 2% in the days when UK wage growth was 3-4.5%.
I actually hate these stats; I want to see like-for-likes, and at different parts of the income spectrum.
For people earning £10-15,000 a year, the average increase was xx% etc.
@Alanbrooke But wages are rising well ahead of inflation too.
I appreciate that you have a very truthy vision of the world, but try letting it collide with reality once in a while.
well ahead ? Over the last 10 years wages haven't risen that much, we are experiencing a period of catch back and the analysis has yet to be seen, but if there is a lump of annualised wages having to reflect the living wage, then it isn't true wage growth but legal fiat driving wages.
I've already had my first price increases from suppliers based on the living wage.
And as I keep pointing out your reality in London is very different from mine in the Midlands. Try broadening your horizons occasionally.
If only everyone earned £500k, owned two overseas homes and had a heated swimming pool.
Our latest#euref poll out later in @standardnews - an interesting one!
'Interesting' poll klazon!!!
They are usually good polls for remain so I'm guessing a goodish poll for Leave.
If it turns out to be a sub MOE change I'm going to publicly waterboard him.
And we know what they say about an "interesting" poll result...
Twyman's law. If it is interesting it is usually wrong.
Unless it's an exit poll ?
The exit poll was wrong. Failed to predict a Tory majority.
I'm not sure that's true. It had a margin of error of 20 seats (I don't think any of the TV companies explicitly mentioned that but 5 Live did) and it didn't explicitly say "hung parliament".
I think her majesty should open her Queens Speech by referencing this "interesting" poll.
"My government is thoroughly pissed off to reveal these bogus poll numbers that indicate voters have totally lost their senses and are inviting armageddon on us all."
Our latest#euref poll out later in @standardnews - an interesting one!
'Interesting' poll klazon!!!
They are usually good polls for remain so I'm guessing a goodish poll for Leave.
If it turns out to be a sub MOE change I'm going to publicly waterboard him.
And we know what they say about an "interesting" poll result...
Twyman's law. If it is interesting it is usually wrong.
Unless it's an exit poll ?
The exit poll was wrong. Failed to predict a Tory majority.
I'm not sure that's true. It had a margin of error of 20 seats (I don't think any of the TV companies explicitly mentioned that but 5 Live did) and it didn't explicitly say "hung parliament".
It predicted 316 Tory seats. That's a hung parliament by definition.
Mr Hosie was, after all, mooted to be leading a summer initiative targeting No voters in a drive to push the case for independence. Such a move is seen as vital to retaining the support of the many Yes voters who joined the SNP after the referendum. Whether the initiative – or Mr Hosie's leadership of it – survives remains to be seen.
Surely Hosie is the perfect candidate to lead a campaign advocating divorce...
Our Zoomer friends have been remarkably quiet about this story.
Is that because with 2 MPs shagging the same woman, it falls under the SNP policy of "not criticising group decisions"?
Only slavering cretins like you would care a jot. I personally do not care what they are doing as long as it is not criminal and they are doing their jobs properly. It has however totally f**ked them and it will be the long grass for both no doubt. Especially Hosie given his wife is Sturgeon's best pal.
I'm still dizzy from the suggestion that I might be Scotch Pee's friend.
Difficult to ascertain precisely why the tabloids considered there to have been no public interest in Spanky Whittingdale's antics but oodles of the stuff in the SNP shaggers. I'm sure it's complicated.
We have made a slight change in our methodology since our previous poll. While our polls at the Scottish, Welsh and London elections were generally very accurate, one consistent flaw was that we had UKIP too high. Investigating this error appears to be related to the switch from weighting by party ID to weighting by past vote. Comparing our sample to the British Election Study people in our polls who voted for "establishment" parties like the Conservatives and Labour in 2015 were not likely enough to also identify with the party, people who voted for "challenger" parties like UKIP and the Greens in 2015 were too likely to identify strongly with them.
To address this we have added an extra weight by whether respondents generally identify with one of the main established parties, whether they identify with one of the smaller, newer parties, or whether they don't have any strong party identification. The impact of this is to slightly reduce the level of UKIP support in our voting intention figures and slightly increase support for Britain remaining in the European Union. In today's poll the change has increased Remain's lead by one point, from 3 points on our old weights to 4 points on our new weights.
As ever, we are keeping our methodology under constant review, and are actively looking at other areas such as how we deal with don't knows, how best to model likelihood to vote and keeping track of false recall in past vote.
Yougov London Mayor FPTP: Con (-3.1) Lab (-1.2) Grn (+1.2) LD (+1.4) UKIP (+3.4) Oth (-1.6) ScotCon: SNP(+1.5) Lab (-0.6), Con (-3) LD (-0.8) Oth (+2.9) ScotReg: SNP (-0.7) Lab (-0.1) Con (-2.9) LD (+0.8) Grn (+2.4) UKIP (+2) WalesCon: PC (+0.5) Lab (-1.7) Con (-2.1) LD (+0.3) UKIP (+3.5) WalesList: PC (+0.8) Lab (-0.5) Con (+0.2) LD (+0.5) UKIP (+3.5) Oth (-6) GE2015: Con (-3.8) Lab (+2.8) LD (+1.9) UKIP (-0.9) Grn (+1.2) Oth (-0.3) EE2014: Con (-1.9) Lab (+0.6) LD (+2.1) UKIP (-0.5) Oth (-0.3)
They are always chasing the trend rather than ahead of it.
I can't see a trend?
There are a couple - understatement of the Tories six out of seven, LD overstated similarly - but mainly that YG keep adjusting for the past and don't seem to catch up.
Pre-2015, understating UKIP, post 2015 overstating UKIP. Labour get the reverse treatment.
Who's to say their latest adjustment will be any more successful?
A binary referendum doesn't strike me as the same kind of election as local government and I'd expect people to think and behave a little differently.
I think her majesty should open her Queens Speech by referencing this "interesting" poll.
"My government is thoroughly pissed off to reveal these bogus poll numbers that indicate voters have totally lost their senses and are inviting armageddon on us all."
Does the Queen bet on politics? What would be the constitutional position on this?
It seems that EU Passerelle Clauses, Brake Clauses and Accelerator Clauses are all there to get round the need for unanimous voting and /or to speed up unionisation.
Plenty of scope in this legislation for EU bureau(c)rats to fudge and manipulate laws to achieve their objectives.
@OliverCooper: If Sadiq Khan has so many concerns about HS2 devastating Euston, did he air them when Labour proposed HS2 while he was Transport Minister?
Our latest#euref poll out later in @standardnews - an interesting one!
'Interesting' poll klazon!!!
They are usually good polls for remain so I'm guessing a goodish poll for Leave.
If it turns out to be a sub MOE change I'm going to publicly waterboard him.
And we know what they say about an "interesting" poll result...
Twyman's law. If it is interesting it is usually wrong.
Unless it's an exit poll ?
The exit poll was wrong. Failed to predict a Tory majority.
I'm not sure that's true. It had a margin of error of 20 seats (I don't think any of the TV companies explicitly mentioned that but 5 Live did) and it didn't explicitly say "hung parliament".
It predicted 316 Tory seats. That's a hung parliament by definition.
It predicted 316 ± 20 - but neither the BBC nor Sky (nor AFAIK ITV) bothered to report it properly.
Well the Ipsos Mori poll isn't a below the margin of error change.
Oo-er
It's remarkable what the Chief Executive of Ipsos Mori will tell me when I threaten to waterboard him
TSE
Ignoring for now what the BES study actually said yesterday, I was interested in why you set such store by it. I remember you saying a few days ago that it was the one poll you trusted. Is that simply because if the large size of the poll or is there something in their methodology you particularly like?
With employment rates at a new all-time high, unemployment rates at a ten year low and vacancy rates touching all-time highs, it is clear that British workers are being crowded out of the market place.
Honestly, sometimes Leavers are beyond parody.
Don't forget wages up 2% versus inflation of 0.5% shows the downward pressure on wages produced by all the nasty foreigners moving here.
Actually 2% wage growth is quite poor, historically UK wage growth has been around 3-4.5% YoY, it started to dip around 2005 and never recovered to those levels. I wonder why.
Yes, but inflation was 2% in the days when UK wage growth was 3-4.5%.
I actually hate these stats; I want to see like-for-likes, and at different parts of the income spectrum.
For people earning £10-15,000 a year, the average increase was xx% etc.
I don't know if I am reading it properly but average (median) earnings in mid 2008 were £444 per week. The same source tells me that they are £499 now.
@OliverCooper: If Sadiq Khan has so many concerns about HS2 devastating Euston, did he air them when Labour proposed HS2 while he was Transport Minister?
While the Tories were busy linking Khan to all the dodgy folk he has associated himself in the past, the thing they missed, he was a crap minister in Brown government and equally crap as a shadow minister..
@OliverCooper: If Sadiq Khan has so many concerns about HS2 devastating Euston, did he air them when Labour proposed HS2 while he was Transport Minister?
Devastating ?
It would add to it, surely - As Eurostar has to St Pancras ?!
With employment rates at a new all-time high, unemployment rates at a ten year low and vacancy rates touching all-time highs, it is clear that British workers are being crowded out of the market place.
Honestly, sometimes Leavers are beyond parody.
Don't forget wages up 2% versus inflation of 0.5% shows the downward pressure on wages produced by all the nasty foreigners moving here.
Actually 2% wage growth is quite poor, historically UK wage growth has been around 3-4.5% YoY, it started to dip around 2005 and never recovered to those levels. I wonder why.
Yes, but inflation was 2% in the days when UK wage growth was 3-4.5%.
I actually hate these stats; I want to see like-for-likes, and at different parts of the income spectrum.
For people earning £10-15,000 a year, the average increase was xx% etc.
Yes, I think that's a fair point, but then again, I'm not sure the ONS have the ability to give us that level of detail and I'm not sure the government will want to point out their own policy failings for us.
Well the Ipsos Mori poll isn't a below the margin of error change.
Oo-er
It's remarkable what the Chief Executive of Ipsos Mori will tell me when I threaten to waterboard him
TSE
Ignoring for now what the BES study actually said yesterday, I was interested in why you set such store by it. I remember you saying a few days ago that it was the one poll you trusted. Is that simply because if the large size of the poll or is there something in their methodology you particularly like?
In the past their (larger) samples a lot of the time ask the same people that they have previously polled, so you can see if there are genuine pattern shifts in the VI/supplementaries.
Our latest#euref poll out later in @standardnews - an interesting one!
'Interesting' poll klazon!!!
They are usually good polls for remain so I'm guessing a goodish poll for Leave.
If it turns out to be a sub MOE change I'm going to publicly waterboard him.
And we know what they say about an "interesting" poll result...
Twyman's law. If it is interesting it is usually wrong.
Unless it's an exit poll ?
The exit poll was wrong. Failed to predict a Tory majority.
I'm not sure that's true. It had a margin of error of 20 seats (I don't think any of the TV companies explicitly mentioned that but 5 Live did) and it didn't explicitly say "hung parliament".
It predicted 316 Tory seats. That's a hung parliament by definition.
It predicted 316 ± 20 - but neither the BBC nor Sky (nor AFAIK ITV) bothered to report it properly.
You can't just slap a margin of error on and say you're not wrong. You're still wrong, what you're making clear is how big an error it is.
Norman Foster produced concepts for linking everything a while back. But that would be silly...
Well I know the HS-Link required Camden Lock to be bulldozed which is why the government dropped it.
The other, easy concept is to just have an underground tunnel linking the two station concourses. People can walk for 6 minutes, they do it in airports all the time when transferring between terminals or from security to a distant departure gate.
I find these statistics very misleading because they do not compare like-with-like. Let me give you an example. Imagine a country where there are 5 workers:
Said country also has two unemployed people. Now imagine that everyone gets a 10% pay-rise, and the two unemployed people get low-paying jobs. The table then becomes:
Despite everyone getting payrises, and unemployment disappearing, the median income has dropped by almost 20%!
If labour market participation rates increase, it tends to drag down 'productivity' and 'median income' statistics, even though every single person might have seen a pay rise.
This is why I think there should be a survey based system, and where we look at like-for-likes, rather than aggregated data.
With employment rates at a new all-time high, unemployment rates at a ten year low and vacancy rates touching all-time highs, it is clear that British workers are being crowded out of the market place.
Honestly, sometimes Leavers are beyond parody.
Don't forget wages up 2% versus inflation of 0.5% shows the downward pressure on wages produced by all the nasty foreigners moving here.
Actually 2% wage growth is quite poor, historically UK wage growth has been around 3-4.5% YoY, it started to dip around 2005 and never recovered to those levels. I wonder why.
Yes, but inflation was 2% in the days when UK wage growth was 3-4.5%.
I actually hate these stats; I want to see like-for-likes, and at different parts of the income spectrum.
For people earning £10-15,000 a year, the average increase was xx% etc.
Yes, I think that's a fair point, but then again, I'm not sure the ONS have the ability to give us that level of detail and I'm not sure the government will want to point out their own policy failings for us.
All this data is survey based. There's no reason why we - or Markit - couldn't derive this data ourselves. (Should we have the time and money to do so, of course.)
With which, I'm bowing out as I have a lot of work to do
I find these statistics very misleading because they do not compare like-with-like. Let me give you an example. Imagine a country where there are 5 workers:
Said country also has two unemployed people. Now imagine that everyone gets a 10% pay-rise, and the two unemployed people get low-paying jobs. The table then becomes:
Despite everyone getting payrises, and unemployment disappearing, the median income has dropped by almost 20%!
If labour market participation rates increase, it tends to drag down 'productivity' and 'median income' statistics, even though every single person might have seen a pay rise.
This is why I think there should be a survey based system, and where we look at like-for-likes, rather than aggregated data.
@OliverCooper: If Sadiq Khan has so many concerns about HS2 devastating Euston, did he air them when Labour proposed HS2 while he was Transport Minister?
Devastating ?
It would add to it, surely - As Eurostar has to St Pancras ?!
Euston is another one of those things that's going to fall into the too difficult bracket. OOC might not be too bad if it's done well as it has Crossrail, but it's not ideal.
With employment rates at a new all-time high, unemployment rates at a ten year low and vacancy rates touching all-time highs, it is clear that British workers are being crowded out of the market place.
Honestly, sometimes Leavers are beyond parody.
Don't forget wages up 2% versus inflation of 0.5% shows the downward pressure on wages produced by all the nasty foreigners moving here.
Actually 2% wage growth is quite poor, historically UK wage growth has been around 3-4.5% YoY, it started to dip around 2005 and never recovered to those levels. I wonder why.
Yes, but inflation was 2% in the days when UK wage growth was 3-4.5%.
I actually hate these stats; I want to see like-for-likes, and at different parts of the income spectrum.
For people earning £10-15,000 a year, the average increase was xx% etc.
Yes, I think that's a fair point, but then again, I'm not sure the ONS have the ability to give us that level of detail and I'm not sure the government will want to point out their own policy failings for us.
All this data is survey based. There's no reason why we - or Markit - couldn't derive this data ourselves. (Should we have the time and money to do so, of course.)
With which, I'm bowing out as I have a lot of work to do
Who has the time and wherewithal to do it though, I don't know how much utility there would be in the end.
Comments
What's your job, incidentally?
If it turns out to be a sub MOE change I'm going to publicly waterboard him.
Any confirmation from PB readers of that august organ?
I think it could be a good angle for a thread, but beyond my expertise to write.
In fact, whatever the numbers were, Osborne and the amateur spinners on here would have called it a pro-EU story.
Every party is going to end up covered in shit at this rate...
http://www.amazon.co.uk/Thaddeus-White/e/B008C6RU98/
Many of those passionate about what they see as the absolute need to leave the EU seem to find this rather simple point extremely difficult to understand. That's why they bang on about an 'EU Superstate', sovereignty, a possible Bill of Rights, the ECJ, and so on. These are of course crucially important issues to many of those who are already certain to vote Leave, but they are (almost be definition) of little salience to those who might yet be won over.
I doubt very much that wages are keeping up with housing costs in your neck of the woods.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3595946/No-electricity-no-antibiotics-no-beds-no-soap-devastating-look-inside-Venezuela-s-crisis-struck-hospitals-7-babies-die-day-bleeding-patients-lie-strewn-floor-doctors-try-operate-without-tools.html
I've already had my first price increases from suppliers based on the living wage.
And as I keep pointing out your reality in London is very different from mine in the Midlands. Try broadening your horizons occasionally.
I must admit I do have a little sympathy for the politicos as the spending limit seems very low
So a statutory increase has replaced a market rate fall, maybe?
;-(
its Meekonomics
We've also had the introduction of statutory work place pensions since 2005 which I guess has diverted some money that would have gone to pay rises into pensions. Not good for the AWE figures but good for the long term.
https://www.rt.com/news/343282-eurovision-votes-revision-petition/
It including a double page spread from both campaigns.
The Remain one was professional, glossy with safer, stronger and better off in backed by all the big numbers from the CBI/Treasury etc. and some pictures of a smiling family. They have also now started to link the NHS to it.
The Leave one had far more text and detail (and no picture) but did major on one chance to take control, and emphasised the cost, migration, inability to do trade deals and "power" penalties of remaining in the EU.
I don't know how much effect it will have but it should mean that most people are now starting to become aware of the arguments.
So my hunch is on the Remain lead down to 2%
Though I would guess a 2-3 point Remain lead. Remain down 4, Leave up 3.
"With Leave’s condemnations of the EU having moved from forthright to Fourth Reich"
"Some of these arguments look tangential to the question of EU membership. Hell, some of these arguments are tangential to the question of EU membership." -
Yes, I don't sense a richness of practical, relevant and important bellwether examples of how the EU / ECJ binds us (or indeed much on how it helps us) that would have been an eye opener for me and actually given me some sense of the enormity they are on about.
Much of the EU debate sits very comfortably alongside Elf & Safety, bin emptying in Tunbridge Wells (or Tameside even, if you must), road cones and hotlines, plastic bag tax, the multiple daily claims of political correctness gone mad, the raging at every quango / NGO / charity, or the voicing of fears of everything going to the dogs expanded to the nth degree. I think if we look at the Brexiteers, it would probably be fair and uncontroversial to say that we find the type of people, often grumpy old men, who are highly sensitive to those little bits of grit in daily life, and would have pretty strong opinions on many of these other matters.
Sometimes the balance of wider public opinion has some empathy with grumpy old annoyance, and other times just thinks 'shut up and get over it'. And it is a 'Leave = empathy, Remain = shut up and get over it' gut feeling amongst the uncommitted that will drive quite a number of votes. For that reason, I don't think a silly, shouty, bad tempered debate, even when a fair proportion of that silliness comes from Remain, necessarily helps Leave, because it drives a 'Shut up and get over it' mentality.
Honestly, there's a special place in hell for pollsters that make us suffer like this.
On the other hand, the Leave text was on-message in repeating the 'take control' line repeatedly.
You can see the two pages here:
http://img.thesun.co.uk/aidemitlum/archive/02868/guid-m__2868356a.jpg
I actually hate these stats; I want to see like-for-likes, and at different parts of the income spectrum.
For people earning £10-15,000 a year, the average increase was xx%
etc.
After the failure of last year and the ICM internet/phone spread finding, I have only one reaction to any opinion poll.
¯\_(ツ)_/¯
"My government is thoroughly pissed off to reveal these bogus poll numbers that indicate voters have totally lost their senses and are inviting armageddon on us all."
Difficult to ascertain precisely why the tabloids considered there to have been no public interest in Spanky Whittingdale's antics but oodles of the stuff in the SNP shaggers. I'm sure it's complicated.
Pre-2015, understating UKIP, post 2015 overstating UKIP. Labour get the reverse treatment.
Who's to say their latest adjustment will be any more successful?
A binary referendum doesn't strike me as the same kind of election as local government and I'd expect people to think and behave a little differently.
Plenty of scope in this legislation for EU bureau(c)rats to fudge and manipulate laws to achieve their objectives.
"Can I present Commander Lucy D'Orsi, Gold Commander when the Chinese state visit..."
"Oh bad luck"
Legend...
https://twitter.com/theousherwood/status/732861133720322048?ref_src=twsrc^tfw
Ignoring for now what the BES study actually said yesterday, I was interested in why you set such store by it. I remember you saying a few days ago that it was the one poll you trusted. Is that simply because if the large size of the poll or is there something in their methodology you particularly like?
http://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/earningsandworkinghours/timeseries/kab9
If those earnings had matched inflation they should have been £556.
http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/bills/article-1633409/Historic-inflation-calculator-value-money-changed-1900.html
So, the average worker isn't benefiting from the EU and all the new arrivals.
The unemployment data shows UK citizens annual employment rising roughly in line with births/deaths differentials.
Vacancies are high at 2007 levels but there are nearly four million extra people competing for them now.
It would add to it, surely - As Eurostar has to St Pancras ?!
The other, easy concept is to just have an underground tunnel linking the two station concourses. People can walk for 6 minutes, they do it in airports all the time when transferring between terminals or from security to a distant departure gate.
I find these statistics very misleading because they do not compare like-with-like. Let me give you an example. Imagine a country where there are 5 workers: Said country also has two unemployed people. Now imagine that everyone gets a 10% pay-rise, and the two unemployed people get low-paying jobs. The table then becomes: Despite everyone getting payrises, and unemployment disappearing, the median income has dropped by almost 20%!
If labour market participation rates increase, it tends to drag down 'productivity' and 'median income' statistics, even though every single person might have seen a pay rise.
This is why I think there should be a survey based system, and where we look at like-for-likes, rather than aggregated data.
With which, I'm bowing out as I have a lot of work to do
Gulp.