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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The referendum will be decided by voters who don’t feel strongly about it either way
Leave campaigners have been vehemently arguing that we urgently need to leave the EU for many years as a top priority. Such is their vehemence and their prominence, it is easy to forget that this is a minority view. Ipsos-MORI have been tracking what the public considers to be the important issues of the day for decades. Most of the time, the EU languishes at about 10% naming it in the top th…
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And paging kle4... a thread for the neutrals!
Meanwhile looks like 'SNP go Wild in Westminster' has some mileage left in it yet:
http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/671300/SNP-MP-Angus-MacNeil-taxpayers-money-secret-mistress-Serena-Cowdy-Stewart-Hosie
On topic, I would have thought the ramification of a low interest topic would be reflected in a low turnout. It depends if either side convince the great British public that there is a connection between EU and issues further up the concern ladder.
It’s hard to believe Ms Sturgeon’s relationship with her party's deputy leader won’t be damaged by all this. But the party’s political strategy, too, could be impacted. Mr Hosie was, after all, mooted to be leading a summer initiative targeting No voters in a drive to push the case for independence. Such a move is seen as vital to retaining the support of the many Yes voters who joined the SNP after the referendum. Whether the initiative – or Mr Hosie's leadership of it – survives remains to be seen.
http://www.heraldscotland.com/opinion/14499014.Herald_View__Fallout_from_SNP_sex_scandal_could_be_damaging/
I'm sure AM is right. What may be of more interest is trying to determine how many % the Remainders have to win by before the Leavers stop crying "foul". Quite a lot, I'd imagine.
Oh dear - a little bit economic with the truth. Obsession never a good thing.
By the way this is rather good. have you seen it?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j0pwXLtvt2w&feature=youtu.be
Sure few people put "the EU' as one of their issues. But when you think through what they actually care about - immigration is the obvious one - then when you consider solutions out relationship with the EU *has* to be part of the answer (whichever side of the argument you are on).
Once people focus on a vote, and if they come to the conclusion that the EU is indelibly linked to an important issue then it becomes an important topic for them. That is, I think, what has happened here.
Tories 50-50 Remain/Leave
77 % Labour Remain
64% Lib Dems Remain
3% Ukip supporters
60% ABC1 Remain
41% C2DE
I do think that the mocking of project Fear by Leave is having an effect, but not the one they intend. The meme is now established that Leave involves risk to both economy and peace.
I am off to a LD StrongerIn meeting tonight, so shall see how things are going elsewhere in the Midlands.
Thanks, I get it. Oh and well done for mentioning "xenophobic battiness".
Vapid bilge.
It's like saying "no one cares about membership of the MPC, therefore no one cares about interest rate policy"
shiney2 posts this (at least once) every day - as it is consuming OGH bandwith, might I suggest it be treated as SPAM and removed, and further such posting stopped?
https://www.ipsos-mori.com/Assets/Images/Polls/Issues_Facing_Britain_April2016.JPG
There is another graphic which shows what London thinks. It thinks it's the economy. Perhaps that's a problem?
If you're obsessed with banks and financial institutions and instruments, do you forget society and the world most people inhabit and experience?
Who's out of touch?
Our Zoomer friends have been remarkably quiet about this story.
Is that because with 2 MPs shagging the same woman, it falls under the SNP policy of "not criticising group decisions"?
well stop reposting it then..
btw, still waiting for your 'exposure' and 'contradiction'.
I think it's the same with the EU. I want us to leave the EU. I'm even a member of Ukip. But if I was polled by Ipsos-Mori, our membership of the EU would not be my number 1 concern - apart from now. Whatever the outcome of the referendum, my number 1 concern will still be the public finances and that numpty in Number 11.
It is quite possible to do, but may involve some hardship.
SO
The economy is kind of important. If we want to reduce immigration by any significant number we have to fundamentally rework ours.
This is true.
But I doubt it will take long.
Most (almost all?) employers obey employment law. A points based immigration system applying to *all* employment visitors will sort it in short order.
cf Australia.
http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/3412.0/
Australia has a population of 23 million, so equivalent to about half a million migrants re-based to a UK population. Australia with its points system has twice the percapita immigration that we do. I recall the figures for Canada are pretty similar.
That the London based media talk endlessly about it as if it represented the entire UK is very conspicuous. There's nothing more instructive than watching regional news outside your area - there's a whole country out there that most of us simply never see.
They have a problem and they identify that problem. They don't identify the "cause" of the problem.
For instance, if someone is worried about crime they will typically say they are worried about crime. They won't say that they are concerned about the co-location of areas with materially divergent socio-economic characteristics even though this is one of the primary drives of (property) crime.
In relation to the other 50% of those who will vote the key must be to persuade them that this vote is really about a topic they do care about. The problem is that both sides are seriously overselling their main strength. Who really believes that the average man or women in the street will even notice if we are in or out of the EU in 5 years? They will still go to Spain or Portugal for their holidays, they will still be driving an imported car, if they work for a business that trades with the EU they will still be doing so, there will still be very large numbers of immigrants coming into this country and life will go on pretty much as normal.
In this context message discipline, particularly of the post apocalyptic kind, is perhaps not as important as it would be for a general election. Boris has the attraction of being likeable, funny and entertaining. It got Labour London to vote for him twice. It might happen again.
Oz and Canada have legislated and organized to arrive at an optimum level of immigration for themselves.
We will no doubt arrive at a different figure that meets *our* people's needs (if the then UK gov wishes to be reelected).
Not the Australia model blown out of the water,
It was only a matter of time before someone actually looked at the facts I suppose.
Newspaper made to print verdict of Independent Press Standards Organisation that followed complaint from Buckingham Palace
http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2016/may/18/queen-backs-brexit-headline-in-the-sun-was-inaccurate-press-watchdog-rules
Who thought Shiney a bit of a rotter,
For the sake of Bandwidth,
She said Censor Forthwith,
The sites infested with Faragist Plotters.
http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/Latestproducts/3412.0Media Release12014-15?opendocument&tabname=Summary&prodno=3412.0&issue=2014-15&num=&view=
"The number of Australian residents born in India has almost tripled over the last 10 years and residents born in China have more than doubled in this time."
The change in our migrant mix can best be observed in the differences in median age of certain groups.
"Migrants born in Italy, for example, had a median age of 64.7 years in 2005. This increased to 69.3 years in 2015 - indicating a drop in recent migration and the aging of existing migrants," said Ms Cho.
"On the other hand, migrants from our Asian neighbours, such as India, have seen a reduction in median age from 37 years in 2005 to 33.4 years in 2015."
More seriously, her net lead on favourability over Trump has been seriously eroded to the point where he's now within range. At the beginning of April, she held a 17% net lead over him, -14 to -31; that gap is now down to just 5.5%, -13.5 to -19. With five and a half months to go, that's far too close for confidence. Yes, she's still in the better position but Trump now has a viable path to the White House
The UK, and in particular England are not in that position. Hundreds of thousands of people coming to a country who find it impossible to build enough houses for its current population is a problem. We find it difficult to build the houses because to do so we have to give up more of our space and accept population densities that our traffic infrastructure cannot really cope with.
But as I said earlier, the idea this is all going to magically change because we are not in the EU is, well, oversold.
Is there a qualitatitve difference between the Australian and UK net migration?
It is not my responsibility to provide you with understanding.....
We might have the same soon except it would be an internal catfight among SNP MPs
Any system generates its own vested interests. The EU money redistribution system is no different except perhaps that it has concentrated on 'owning' opinion formers eg mandelson, clegg, kinnock and rest
The kind that can wind down into it's retirement doing the kind of work that is often being done by new arrivals? A move to partial retirement rather than constantly shifting the retirement age is something worthy of consideration.
The important thing with Australia is that they have control over both the quality and quantity of new arrivals, which they can adjust up and down according to their national need and situation.
Introduce that and combine it with Cameron's intelligent approach to refugee settlement and we could have a more content society, and certainly one where it is much easier to plan public spending, infrastructure development and so on.
* With the exception of resource exporters who benefited from the China led boom in oil, coal, etc prices.
https://theconversation.com/australia-has-outsourced-migration-policy-to-the-private-sector-30347
European migrants in unskilled jobs often are in starter jobs, but actually are better qualified than the average. Not surprisingly many are now moving up the employment tree.
BJ merely pointed out from a historical perspective that the EU is the continuation by other means of the desire of powerful French/German rulers to dominate the European continent from the time of the Holy Roman Empire. The German Drang nach Osten, which is so evident in the current attitude of the EU to territories in Eastern Europe, is many centuries old. The 3rd Reich was merely the most recent previous manifestation of this desire, and many of the leading economists and industrialists of this failed enterprise were among the founders of the EEC.
It seems that the Remain campaigners wish to focus on economics, and obscure the fact that the fundamental question on 23/6/16 is whether the UK wishes to remain part of the project towards ever closer union, or detach itself from this megalithic scheme. The "status quo" option is not on the table.
HOffice wants to give Food Standards Agency, Gambling Commission, HSE and other public sector bodies the right to request internet data under the Investigatory Powers Bill.
The move to flexible and later retirement is probably a good thing, but would have to involve much more working and much later retirement without migration.
Automation and productivity increases can help with some tasks, but hard to see these helping much in the social care of the frail elderly. That is a job for human beings, and requires manual work and time, not easily robotised.
Remainers do not like it up em and are alarmed and rattled at Boris ability and command of Language to get the message across to the public in a way that I dont think any other current po,itician can.
Manchester United manager Louis van Gaal is just like Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn... his rivals all want him to stay
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/football/article-3595451/Manchester-United-manager-Louis-van-Gaal-just-like-Labour-leader-Jeremy-Corbyn-rivals-want-stay.html
It's just a personal view but I doubt that is a healthy basis for our future relationship with the EU.
This is just another example:
"DAVID Cameron has abandoned his promise to enforce a new law to make Britain’s parliament supreme over Brussels - junking it from today’s Queen’s Speech.
The Sun can reveal that a Sovereignty Bill - loudly trumpeted by the PM just three months ago - has now been quietly buried by No10. Mr Cameron pledged to bring in the law as a vital constitutional safeguard to curb the mushrooming powers of the European Court of Justice.
On February 21, just two days after finishing his EU renegotiation, Mr Cameron told the Andrew Marr programme: “We are going to set out in the coming days proposals to make clear the British parliament is sovereign”. http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/politics/7157359/David-Cameron-ditches-law-to-enshrine-UK-parliaments-sovereignty-over-Brussels-from-Queens-Speech.html