IPSOS MORI in the Standard says 55 per cent for staying in and 37 per cent for leaving the EU.
Anecdote alert
I was canvassing with the Labour In campaign in inner London last weekend - our group recorded 200 contacts, 90% remain, 10% don't know AND NO LEAVE. NOT ONE. Street properties (ie not social housing), mostly young professional residents. But NO ONE for leave.
The clue is in the two words "young" and "professional". Both strongly Remain. Go to a street of retired social class CDE workers, particularly outside London, and I think you will find the percentages reversed. The demographic indicators in this referendum are stark - unlike Scotland's independence referendum where the voters were split across almost every demographic.
Leave ... a new future with a few bumps in the road. Even more need to work together.
Remain ... political union, a European army, European decision-making, with one twenty seventh of the input. And hopefully no complaints from the Remainers that this wasn't what they voted for. Oh yes, it was.
I think we should join the Euro post remain. Whats the point of being in Europe if we're going to lose money to the exchange desks every time we head off to Europe ?
I said this at the start, I'd rather be out or in, our halfway house suits no one. If it is Remain, then I'd probably prefer to join the Eurozone and just say "fuck it" and take on the Germans and French at their own game. It would probably all end in tears, but at least no one could accuse us of not trying. The status quo doesn't help us and it doesn't help them. Additionally, we could benefit from a weaker currency like the Euro, and our addition to the EMU would probably weaken it further given our huge current account deficit.
This Government is doing away with 30 years of environmental and archaeological protection introduced by Thatcher to make sure basic checks were done prior to development. Fucking savages. Forget the EU. This bung to their business friends is enough to make sure I never vote for the bastards again.
Leave ... a new future with a few bumps in the road. Even more need to work together.
Remain ... political union, a European army, European decision-making, with one twenty seventh of the input. And hopefully no complaints from the Remainers that this wasn't what they voted for. Oh yes, it was.
I think we should join the Euro post remain. Whats the point of being in Europe if we're going to lose money to the exchange desks every time we head off to Europe ?
I said this at the start, I'd rather be out or in, our halfway house suits no one. If it is Remain, then I'd probably prefer to join the Eurozone and just say "fuck it" and take on the Germans and French at their own game. It would probably all end in tears, but at least no one could accuse us of not trying. The status quo doesn't help us and it doesn't help them. Additionally, we could benefit from a weaker currency like the Euro, and our addition to the EMU would probably weaken it further given our huge current account deficit.
Do you really think this? Look at the state of southern Europe - the euro has squeezed the life out of their economies. Do you want to be on the receiving end of the bill if it all goes seriously pear shaped?
Gideon Skinner, head of political research at Ipsos MORI, said: “Remain has been boosted by a Conservative swing, but they are also more likely to change their mind, so in this volatile election, with voters divided over the short and long-term impacts of their decision, nothing can be taken for granted.”
Hmm. Doesn't sound like Ipsos MORI has a whole lot of faith in its own poll.
- Romanian and Bulgarian nationals working in the UK rose by 55,000 pa, from 173,000 to 228,000
- total up 131,000 from 808,000 to 939,000 and those from Poland, Latvia, Estonia, Lithuania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Hungary and the Czech Republic from 931,000 to 962,000.
Leave ... a new future with a few bumps in the road. Even more need to work together.
Remain ... political union, a European army, European decision-making, with one twenty seventh of the input. And hopefully no complaints from the Remainers that this wasn't what they voted for. Oh yes, it was.
I think we should join the Euro post remain. Whats the point of being in Europe if we're going to lose money to the exchange desks every time we head off to Europe ?
I said this at the start, I'd rather be out or in, our halfway house suits no one. If it is Remain, then I'd probably prefer to join the Eurozone and just say "fuck it" and take on the Germans and French at their own game. It would probably all end in tears, but at least no one could accuse us of not trying. The status quo doesn't help us and it doesn't help them. Additionally, we could benefit from a weaker currency like the Euro, and our addition to the EMU would probably weaken it further given our huge current account deficit.
Do you really think this? Look at the state of southern Europe - the euro has squeezed the life out of their economies. Do you want to be on the receiving end of the bill if it all goes seriously pear shaped?
What the Ipsos MORI subsidiary questions suggest is that Remain should increase their focus on the economy and tone down the security stuff.
Conversely, Leave need to find a better way either of neutralising the economic worries, or if they can't do that, at least find a better way of moving the debate on to more favourable ground for them (immigration, red tape).
I think the evidence is that the last couple of weeks banging on about immigration has harmed Leave.
And I think Red Tape equals Mr Tyndalls environmental and archeological protection.
Leave ... a new future with a few bumps in the road. Even more need to work together.
Remain ... political union, a European army, European decision-making, with one twenty seventh of the input. And hopefully no complaints from the Remainers that this wasn't what they voted for. Oh yes, it was.
I think we should join the Euro post remain. Whats the point of being in Europe if we're going to lose money to the exchange desks every time we head off to Europe ?
I said this at the start, I'd rather be out or in, our halfway house suits no one. If it is Remain, then I'd probably prefer to join the Eurozone and just say "fuck it" and take on the Germans and French at their own game. It would probably all end in tears, but at least no one could accuse us of not trying. The status quo doesn't help us and it doesn't help them. Additionally, we could benefit from a weaker currency like the Euro, and our addition to the EMU would probably weaken it further given our huge current account deficit.
Do you really think this? Look at the state of southern Europe - the euro has squeezed the life out of their economies. Do you want to be on the receiving end of the bill if it all goes seriously pear shaped?
Why do you think we won't be anyway?
The euro is like a black hole - you can't not be affected by it. But you do not have to travel voluntarily inside the event horizon.
Leave ... a new future with a few bumps in the road. Even more need to work together.
Remain ... political union, a European army, European decision-making, with one twenty seventh of the input. And hopefully no complaints from the Remainers that this wasn't what they voted for. Oh yes, it was.
I think we should join the Euro post remain. Whats the point of being in Europe if we're going to lose money to the exchange desks every time we head off to Europe ?
I said this at the start, I'd rather be out or in, our halfway house suits no one. If it is Remain, then I'd probably prefer to join the Eurozone and just say "fuck it" and take on the Germans and French at their own game. It would probably all end in tears, but at least no one could accuse us of not trying. The status quo doesn't help us and it doesn't help them. Additionally, we could benefit from a weaker currency like the Euro, and our addition to the EMU would probably weaken it further given our huge current account deficit.
Do you really think this? Look at the state of southern Europe - the euro has squeezed the life out of their economies. Do you want to be on the receiving end of the bill if it all goes seriously pear shaped?
I think this is the disconnect some on the remain side have, the EU is a political construct rather than an economic one. If we are going to be a major political player in it, we need to make sure we are properly in it, not have one foot out of the door. Economically it is probably a poor idea to join the EMU, but after a remain vote the political reality will be to join to make our voice properly heard. Our position doesn't give us the political clout we need to ensure we are getting our agenda through. I'm in the Leave camp, personally I want to see us out of the whole mess, but if the public vote to remain, then we have to be fully in, no more half-hearted attempts at being both in and out at the same time.
Leave ... a new future with a few bumps in the road. Even more need to work together.
Remain ... political union, a European army, European decision-making, with one twenty seventh of the input. And hopefully no complaints from the Remainers that this wasn't what they voted for. Oh yes, it was.
I think we should join the Euro post remain. Whats the point of being in Europe if we're going to lose money to the exchange desks every time we head off to Europe ?
I said this at the start, I'd rather be out or in, our halfway house suits no one. If it is Remain, then I'd probably prefer to join the Eurozone and just say "fuck it" and take on the Germans and French at their own game. It would probably all end in tears, but at least no one could accuse us of not trying. The status quo doesn't help us and it doesn't help them. Additionally, we could benefit from a weaker currency like the Euro, and our addition to the EMU would probably weaken it further given our huge current account deficit.
We are in an OK place (ECJ striking down the deal nothwithstanding).
If (big if for Leavers, I grant you), the deal has teeth, we have created a 2-speed europe. Which gives us the best of both worlds, IMO.
Immigration apart, which of course for those who care will not be addressed at all.
The polls are what they are, and there isn't much we can do to change them.
If that is the result I will be giving up on politics for good.
Life's too short, and I'm tired of caring and then being let down.
There's nothing in the future of the Conservative Party that excites me.
I'd far rather quietly live out my life with my wife, family and pets in the country.
That's an interesting comment, because it mirrors my attitude to Labour politics which made me move (back) to the left. I just couldn't be bothered any more to campaign for a vacuous policy offering, mainly on the basis that the other lot were worse.
I think we both reflect a real trend out there. There is a partly-conscious belief that the status quo is not ideal but that a convincing alternative is not being offered. So people just switch off, or they embrace radical change, despite awareness that it may not quite work out. That's why Syriza won not just once but twice - Greeks could see it was difficult and perhaps impossible, but they gave them credit for trying.
What the Ipsos MORI subsidiary questions suggest is that Remain should increase their focus on the economy and tone down the security stuff.
Conversely, Leave need to find a better way either of neutralising the economic worries, or if they can't do that, at least find a better way of moving the debate on to more favourable ground for them (immigration, red tape).
I think the evidence is that the last couple of weeks banging on about immigration has harmed Leave.
And I think Red Tape equals Mr Tyndalls environmental and archeological protection.
The one pager from the Leave campaign in the Electoral Commission leaflet sent to all households is completely silent on the economy. Their big claim is £350 million of taxpayers' money being sent each week to the EU. They repeat the claim four times. What they don't say on immigration is more interesting than what they do say. They point to the huge scale of immigration and point out it is controlled by the EU at present. They imply, but don't actually say, that we would control it on exit.
The polls are what they are, and there isn't much we can do to change them.
If that is the result I will be giving up on politics for good.
Life's too short, and I'm tired of caring and then being let down.
There's nothing in the future of the Conservative Party that excites me.
I'd far rather quietly live out my life with my wife, family and pets in the country.
That's an interesting comment, because it mirrors my attitude to Labour politics which made me move (back) to the left. I just couldn't be bothered any more to campaign for a vacuous policy offering, mainly on the basis that the other lot were worse.
I think we both reflect a real trend out there. There is a partly-conscious belief that the status quo is not ideal but that a convincing alternative is not being offered. So people just switch off, or they embrace radical change, despite awareness that it may not quite work out. That's why Syriza won not just once but twice - Greeks could see it was difficult and perhaps impossible, but they gave them credit for trying.
Interesting. What non-vacuous policies are you hoping to campaign on in GE 2020?
This Government is doing away with 30 years of environmental and archaeological protection introduced by Thatcher to make sure basic checks were done prior to development. Fucking savages. Forget the EU. This bung to their business friends is enough to make sure I never vote for the bastards again.
Except on climate change and EU membership, it strikes me that we tend to agree 90% of the time. I'd seriously consider voting for you if you were a candidate (and maybe vice versa?). Time to think about voting Labour?
Leave ... a new future with a few bumps in the road. Even more need to work together.
Remain ... political union, a European army, European decision-making, with one twenty seventh of the input. And hopefully no complaints from the Remainers that this wasn't what they voted for. Oh yes, it was.
I think we should join the Euro post remain. Whats the point of being in Europe if we're going to lose money to the exchange desks every time we head off to Europe ?
I said this at the start, I'd rather be out or in, our halfway house suits no one. If it is Remain, then I'd probably prefer to join the Eurozone and just say "fuck it" and take on the Germans and French at their own game. It would probably all end in tears, but at least no one could accuse us of not trying. The status quo doesn't help us and it doesn't help them. Additionally, we could benefit from a weaker currency like the Euro, and our addition to the EMU would probably weaken it further given our huge current account deficit.
Do you really think this? Look at the state of southern Europe - the euro has squeezed the life out of their economies. Do you want to be on the receiving end of the bill if it all goes seriously pear shaped?
I think this is the disconnect some on the remain side have, the EU is a political construct rather than an economic one. If we are going to be a major political player in it, we need to make sure we are properly in it, not have one foot out of the door. Economically it is probably a poor idea to join the EMU, but after a remain vote the political reality will be to join to make our voice properly heard. Our position doesn't give us the political clout we need to ensure we are getting our agenda through. I'm in the Leave camp, personally I want to see us out of the whole mess, but if the public vote to remain, then we have to be fully in, no more half-hearted attempts at being both in and out at the same time.
I can see your point. Let's wait for the result. A REMAIN 60/40 could give some impetus to what you say; a narrow REMAIN will not settle the matter.
One of the great problems for LEAVE is that there is no clear and immediate reason to quit now. Yes, migration is a problem, ditto the eurozone. But no casus belli which would give rise to a sentiment that we really must be out of this. If we stay I think we should just keep our powder dry. There are some nasty developments brewing in Europe right now - and we need to see how they all play out.
- Romanian and Bulgarian nationals working in the UK rose by 55,000 pa, from 173,000 to 228,000
- total up 131,000 from 808,000 to 939,000 and those from Poland, Latvia, Estonia, Lithuania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Hungary and the Czech Republic from 931,000 to 962,000.
And still unemployment falls - what a great country flourishing in the EU.
Leave ... a new future with a few bumps in the road. Even more need to work together.
Remain ... political union, a European army, European decision-making, with one twenty seventh of the input. And hopefully no complaints from the Remainers that this wasn't what they voted for. Oh yes, it was.
I think we should join the Euro post remain. Whats the point of being in Europe if we're going to lose money to the exchange desks every time we head off to Europe ?
I said this at the start, I'd rather be out or in, our halfway house suits no one. If it is Remain, then I'd probably prefer to join the Eurozone and just say "fuck it" and take on the Germans and French at their own game. It would probably all end in tears, but at least no one could accuse us of not trying. The status quo doesn't help us and it doesn't help them. Additionally, we could benefit from a weaker currency like the Euro, and our addition to the EMU would probably weaken it further given our huge current account deficit.
We are in an OK place (ECJ striking down the deal nothwithstanding).
If (big if for Leavers, I grant you), the deal has teeth, we have created a 2-speed europe. Which gives us the best of both worlds, IMO.
Immigration apart, which of course for those who care will not be addressed at all.
No it doesn't it creates a superstate on our doorstep, one in which we have no say in the governance of but are still going to be a part of in some manner. The status quo, even in the event that Dave's deal is somehow made binding, doesn't suit us politically or, eventually, economically. Do we really want to be Canada to the EU superstate being told by our larger neighbour exactly what to do and to like it? Or is it better to be California or New York within the superstate. Personally I'd rather not be in either position and cast our net globally, but in the event of a remain vote, that isn't going to happen. Remainers need to face up to the political reality that in order to gain 2-4% GDP you're enabling hardcore federalists and hitching the UK to that train. I've been upfront about it, the post-Brexit market turbulence is, on balance, a price worth paying for getting out of the political nightmare of the EU, the Remain side is oddly silent on the looming threat of the EU super state and what role we would have either with our current approach or when it becomes clear that the status quo just means marginalisation within the EU, all the negatives with few to none of the positives.
I think her majesty should open her Queens Speech by referencing this "interesting" poll.
OR by noting it will be the current Prime Minister's last....
Strange isn't it.
As a Tory activist you campaigned for a Conservative government led by PM Cameron. You got one and and now after one year you can't wait to see the back of him.
In contrast as a non Conservative I'd prefer to see Cameron serve at least four years.
It appears from video doing the rounds that Corbyn just completed ignored Cameron and resisted all attempts for a little small talk on the way into Queen's talk. What's wrong with these people?
I think her majesty should open her Queens Speech by referencing this "interesting" poll.
OR by noting it will be the current Prime Minister's last....
Strange isn't it.
As a Tory activist you campaigned for a Conservative government led by PM Cameron. You got one and and now after one year you can't wait to see the back of him.
In contrast as a non Conservative I'd prefer to see Cameron serve at least four years.
Funny business politics.
I didn't realise you were a non-Conservative Jack.
Leave ... a new future with a few bumps in the road. Even more need to work together.
Remain ... political union, a European army, European decision-making, with one twenty seventh of the input. And hopefully no complaints from the Remainers that this wasn't what they voted for. Oh yes, it was.
I think we should join the Euro post remain. Whats the point of being in Europe if we're going to lose money to the exchange desks every time we head off to Europe ?
I said this at the start, I'd rather be out aken it further given our huge current account deficit.
We are in an OK place (ECJ striking down the deal nothwithstanding).
If (big if for Leavers, I grant you), the deal has teeth, we have created a 2-speed europe. Which gives us the best of both worlds, IMO.
Immigration apart, which of course for those who care will not be addressed at all.
No it doesn't it creates a superstate on our doorstep, one in which we have no say in the governance of but are still going to be a part of in some manner. The status quo, even in the event that Dave's deal is somehow made binding, doesn't suit us politically or, eventually, economically. Do we really want to be Canada to the EU superstate being told by our larger neighbour exactly what to do and to like it? Or is it better to be California or New York within the superstate. Personally I'd rather not be in either position and cast our net globally, but in the event of a remain vote, that isn't going to happen. Remainers need to face up to the political reality that in order to gain 2-4% GDP you're enabling hardcore federalists and hitching the UK to that train. I've been upfront about it, the post-Brexit market turbulence is, on balance, a price worth paying for getting out of the political nightmare of the EU, the Remain side is oddly silent on the looming threat of the EU super state and what role we would have either with our current approach or when it becomes clear that the status quo just means marginalisation within the EU, all the negatives with few to none of the positives.
How is us leaving not going to end up with a superstate on our doorstep? Do you think they will abandon all plans if we leave? Will we be less marginalised if we leave than if we stay?
For me it is a logic fail.
I think you are unduly pessimistic about our prospects if we stay in. But you know that as we have had this conversation before several times so perhaps best leave it there.
What the Ipsos MORI subsidiary questions suggest is that Remain should increase their focus on the economy and tone down the security stuff.
Conversely, Leave need to find a better way either of neutralising the economic worries, or if they can't do that, at least find a better way of moving the debate on to more favourable ground for them (immigration, red tape).
I think the evidence is that the last couple of weeks banging on about immigration has harmed Leave.
And I think Red Tape equals Mr Tyndalls environmental and archeological protection.
Again you misunderstand. No one says there should be no red tape or that there should be a free for all. The strongest British Libertarian (as opposed to the US variety) believes the job of government us to set a framework within which business can operate . The infuriating thing about this decision is it won't speed up a single development nor will it allow a single development that would previously have been prevented. It us nothing to do with getting rid of barriers and everything to do with saving a bit of cost for the developers - and I mean a small amount as well.
Go back to before PPG16 was introduced by Thatcher in the 80s and see the amount of archaeological knowledge that was lost during development. The provision of desk top assessments and watching briefs transformed that and did not slow down development at all. It is a fucking stupid decision.
I can see your point. Let's wait for the result. A REMAIN 60/40 could give some impetus to what you say; a narrow REMAIN will not settle the matter.
One of the great problems for LEAVE is that there is no clear and immediate reason to quit now. Yes, migration is a problem, ditto the eurozone. But no casus belli which would give rise to a sentiment that we really must be out of this. If we stay I think we should just keep our powder dry. There are some nasty developments brewing in Europe right now - and we need to see how they all play out.
But there's the disconnect again. In order to keep our powder dry we will be marginalising ourselves even further than we currently are. If we were in the EMU and the Tories sat with the EPP, is there any doubt that Junker would have given the UK the Internal Markets commissioner role? Of course not, we would get it at a canter. The problem is that our position naturally puts us on the sideline. The other nations see the EU as a political project, we see it as an economic one. Look at the current Remain argument, it is an economic one, look at where Leave are failing, on the economics, the people see it as an economic partnership. The reality of the EU is a political partnership and eventually a complete political union. The EU has been completely up front about this goal, fair play to them, it is our politicians who naively think that we can somehow "opt-out" of the major driving force of the EU and yet still hold an influential position within the EU and ensure our interests are protected. It's like a football match where a substitute believes he can score even if the manager doesn't put him on the pitch. That's who we are in the EU right now with our status quo position, the same goes for Sweden and Denmark.
I didn't realise you were a non-Conservative Jack.
As a notoriously bolshy Jacobite I find myself attempting to select the least worst option in elections. I supported the Coalition - critically at times, and would have opted for the same again.
I am happy to give this administration a fair wind.
Leave ... a new future with a few bumps in the road. Even more need to work together.
Remain ... political union, a European army, European decision-making, with one twenty seventh of the input. And hopefully no complaints from the Remainers that this wasn't what they voted for. Oh yes, it was.
I think we should join the Euro post remain. Whats the point of being in Europe if we're going to lose money to the exchange desks every time we head off to Europe ?
I said this at the start, I'd rather be out or in, our halfway house suits no one. If it is Remain, then I'd probably prefer to join the Eurozone and just say "fuck it" and take on the Germans and French at their own game. It would probably all end in tears, but at least no one could accuse us of not trying. The status quo doesn't help us and it doesn't help them. Additionally, we could benefit from a weaker currency like the Euro, and our addition to the EMU would probably weaken it further given our huge current account deficit.
We are in an OK place (ECJ striking down the deal nothwithstanding).
If (big if for Leavers, I grant you), the deal has teeth, we have created a 2-speed europe. Which gives us the best of both worlds, IMO.
Immigration apart, which of course for those who care will not be addressed at all.
Indeed, I don't see why we need to have a 'throw the baby out with the bath water' or 'burn the house down' attitude regarding our membership of the EU. Life is complicated and getting anything you want is a struggle - even more so international relations.
Although I'll vote remain, I would have liked a close result - perhaps 52% v 48% - so that the pressure is kept on the EU to make sure that the deal works and is improved over time.
My problem now is that the Tory hard right seem determined to undermine Cameron and the Tory manifesto commitments and a close result would just give them more ammunition and righteous indignation against him.
"Powers to convert under-performing schools in "unviable" local authorities to academies"
Isn't this a watering down of the watering down?
It's homeopathy policy making.
And HMG will prove the success of its academisation programme by the same means as homeopaths use. Some patients and schools will get better anyway. They prove the treatment worked. Some will stay the same: they need more treatment, and we expect to see improvement within the next six months. Some will get worse and die: the treatment would have worked but the patient or failing school left it too late.
This Government is doing away with 30 years of environmental and archaeological protection introduced by Thatcher to make sure basic checks were done prior to development. Fucking savages. Forget the EU. This bung to their business friends is enough to make sure I never vote for the bastards again.
What exactly are they doing?
The headline is getting rid of the requirement for archaeological or environmental assessments ahead of development.
I can see your point. Let's wait for the result. A REMAIN 60/40 could give some impetus to what you say; a narrow REMAIN will not settle the matter.
One of the great problems for LEAVE is that there is no clear and immediate reason to quit now. Yes, migration is a problem, ditto the eurozone. But no casus belli which would give rise to a sentiment that we really must be out of this. If we stay I think we should just keep our powder dry. There are some nasty developments brewing in Europe right now - and we need to see how they all play out.
But there's the disconnect again. In order to keep our powder dry we will be marginalising ourselves even further than we currently are. If we were in the EMU and the Tories sat with the EPP, is there any doubt that Junker would have given the UK the Internal Markets commissioner role? Of course not, we would get it at a canter. The problem is that our position naturally puts us on the sideline. The other nations see the EU as a political project, we see it as an economic one. Look at the current Remain argument, it is an economic one, look at where Leave are failing, on the economics, the people see it as an economic partnership. The reality of the EU is a political partnership and eventually a complete political union. The EU has been completely up front about this goal, fair play to them, it is our politicians who naively think that we can somehow "opt-out" of the major driving force of the EU and yet still hold an influential position within the EU and ensure our interests are protected. It's like a football match where a substitute believes he can score even if the manager doesn't put him on the pitch. That's who we are in the EU right now with our status quo position, the same goes for Sweden and Denmark.
I didn't realise you were a non-Conservative Jack.
As a notoriously bolshy Jacobite I find myself attempting to select the least worst option in elections. I supported the Coalition - critically at times, and would have opted for the same again.
I am happy to give this administration a fair wind.
I think we need to wait until the referendum is over before judging this administration. Whilst the first year hasn't been great (except of course the continuing progress in the economy, George be praised), that's not too surprising given the overwhelming focus on the EU.
The big question is whether, with the small majority, Cameron and/or his successor can use the last four years to achieve as much as the 2010-2015 government did. We shall see.
This Government is doing away with 30 years of environmental and archaeological protection introduced by Thatcher to make sure basic checks were done prior to development. Fucking savages. Forget the EU. This bung to their business friends is enough to make sure I never vote for the bastards again.
What exactly are they doing?
The headline is getting rid of the requirement for archaeological or environmental assessments ahead of development.
Well, I agree with you. Ridiculous decision. Not even going to be popular either.
How is us leaving not going to end up with a superstate on our doorstep? Do you think they will abandon all plans if we leave? Will we be less marginalised if we leave than if we stay?
For me it is a logic fail.
I think you are unduly pessimistic about our prospects if we stay in. But you know that as we have had this conversation before several times so perhaps best leave it there.
No, we just won't be in it. That's the point of leaving. Yes we can still have some kind of relationship with the EU state but we wouldn't be governed by it. We would be a completely separate nation state with no political ties to the superstate, our companies would be bound to EU state standards when selling to the EU, but beyond that we would just live peaceably with it. Inside we would be party to harmonisation of law, economic policy and the military, but because we're on the sidelines we have very little say in how this all goes down so the ECJ reverts to it's default, "what's the French view".
It's not pessimistic, it is realistic. Name one single time where the government set out a position which said "it's not a political union", "we won't be affected", "Britain has opted-out" that has been proved correct. Maastricht - fail, Nice - Fail, Lisbon - Fail. Every single time our government has assured us that UK interests will be protected and we wouldn't be part of the political union, every time we have been dragged into it kicking and screaming. I'd like for the political union to be abandoned as our government so clearly wants, but history and experience has taught me otherwise, it will continue unabated by our protests, if we're in, we may as well be all-in rather than sort of in.
I didn't realise you were a non-Conservative Jack.
As a notoriously bolshy Jacobite I find myself attempting to select the least worst option in elections. I supported the Coalition - critically at times, and would have opted for the same again.
I am happy to give this administration a fair wind.
Leave ... a new future with a few bumps in the road. Even more need to work together.
Remain ... political union, a European army, European decision-making, with one twenty seventh of the input. And hopefully no complaints from the Remainers that this wasn't what they voted for. Oh yes, it was.
I think we should join the Euro post remain. Whats the point of being in Europe if we're going to lose money to the exchange desks every time we head off to Europe ?
I said this at the start, I'd rather be out or in, our halfway house suits no one. If it is Remain, then I'd probably prefer to join the Eurozone and just say "fuck it" and take on the Germans and French at their own game. It would probably all end in tears, but at least no one could accuse us of not trying. The status quo doesn't help us and it doesn't help them. Additionally, we could benefit from a weaker currency like the Euro, and our addition to the EMU would probably weaken it further given our huge current account deficit.
We are in an OK place (ECJ striking down the deal nothwithstanding).
If (big if for Leavers, I grant you), the deal has teeth, we have created a 2-speed europe. Which gives us the best of both worlds, IMO.
Immigration apart, which of course for those who care will not be addressed at all.
Indeed, I don't see why we need to have a 'throw the baby out with the bath water' or 'burn the house down' attitude regarding our membership of the EU. Life is complicated and getting anything you want is a struggle - even more so international relations.
Although I'll vote remain, I would have liked a close result - perhaps 52% v 48% - so that the pressure is kept on the EU to make sure that the deal works and is improved over time.
My problem now is that the Tory hard right seem determined to undermine Cameron and the Tory manifesto commitments and a close result would just give them more ammunition and righteous indignation against him.
The Tory hard right have always been a bunch of solipsistic tossers. They will just have to settle back down to be a bunch of ineffective solipsistic tossers, on the premise that nothing succeeds like success.
If (IF) Remain do win, then Dave will (continue to) be a winner. And even the STs might realise they want to be with him not agin' him.
I think her majesty should open her Queens Speech by referencing this "interesting" poll.
OR by noting it will be the current Prime Minister's last....
Strange isn't it.
As a Tory activist you campaigned for a Conservative government led by PM Cameron. You got one and and now after one year you can't wait to see the back of him.
In contrast as a non Conservative I'd prefer to see Cameron serve at least four years.
How is us leaving not going to end up with a superstate on our doorstep? Do you think they will abandon all plans if we leave? Will we be less marginalised if we leave than if we stay?
For me it is a logic fail.
I think you are unduly pessimistic about our prospects if we stay in. But you know that as we have had this conversation before several times so perhaps best leave it there.
No, we just won't be in it. That's the point of leaving. Yes we can still have some kind of relationship with the EU state but we wouldn't be governed by it. We would be a completely separate nation state with no political ties to the superstate, our companies would be bound to EU state standards when selling to the EU, but beyond that we would just live peaceably with it. Inside we would be party to harmonisation of law, economic policy and the military, but because we're on the sidelines we have very little say in how this all goes down so the ECJ reverts to it's default, "what's the French view".
It's not pessimistic, it is realistic. Name one single time where the government set out a position which said "it's not a political union", "we won't be affected", "Britain has opted-out" that has been proved correct. Maastricht - fail, Nice - Fail, Lisbon - Fail. Every single time our government has assured us that UK interests will be protected and we wouldn't be part of the political union, every time we have been dragged into it kicking and screaming. I'd like for the political union to be abandoned as our government so clearly wants, but history and experience has taught me otherwise, it will continue unabated by our protests, if we're in, we may as well be all-in rather than sort of in.
On each of those occasions the democratically-elected government of the UK signed up to those treaties. You may not like it, I didn't like much of it, and above all hated having a Labour government for 13 years, but there's democracy (and sovereignty) for you.
How is us leaving not going to end up with a superstate on our doorstep? Do you think they will abandon all plans if we leave? Will we be less marginalised if we leave than if we stay?
For me it is a logic fail.
I think you are unduly pessimistic about our prospects if we stay in. But you know that as we have had this conversation before several times so perhaps best leave it there.
No, we just won't be in it. That's the point of leaving. Yes we can still have some kind of relationship with the EU state but we wouldn't be governed by it. We would be a completely separate nation state with no political ties to the superstate, our companies would be bound to EU state standards when selling to the EU, but beyond that we would just live peaceably with it.
This argument completely ignores geopolitics and is an abnegation of Britain historic role as a key actor on the European continent. For as long as there is an EU, we need to be in it.
Leave ... a new future with a few bumps in the road. Even more need to work together.
Remain ... political union, a European army, European decision-making, with one twenty seventh of the input. And hopefully no complaints from the Remainers that this wasn't what they voted for. Oh yes, it was.
I think we should join the Euro post remain. Whats the point of being in Europe if we're going to lose money to the exchange desks every time we head off to Europe ?
I said this at the start, I'd rather be out or in, our halfway house suits no one. If it is Remain, then I'd probably prefer to join the Eurozone and just say "fuck it" and take on the Germans and French at their own game. It would probably all end in tears, but at least no one could accuse us of not trying. The status quo doesn't help us and it doesn't help them. Additionally, we could benefit from a weaker currency like the Euro, and our addition to the EMU would probably weaken it further given our huge current account deficit.
We are in an OK place (ECJ striking down the deal nothwithstanding).
If (big if for Leavers, I grant you), the deal has teeth, we have created a 2-speed europe. Which gives us the best of both worlds, IMO.
Immigration apart, which of course for those who care will not be addressed at all.
Indeed, I don't see why we need to have a 'throw the baby out with the bath water' or 'burn the house down' attitude regarding our membership of the EU. Life is complicated and getting anything you want is a struggle - even more so international relations.
Although I'll vote remain, I would have liked a close result - perhaps 52% v 48% - so that the pressure is kept on the EU to make sure that the deal works and is improved over time.
My problem now is that the Tory hard right seem determined to undermine Cameron and the Tory manifesto commitments and a close result would just give them more ammunition and righteous indignation against him.
The Tory hard right have always been a bunch of solipsistic tossers. They will just have to settle back down to be a bunch of ineffective solipsistic tossers, on the premise that nothing succeeds like success.
If (IF) Remain do win, then Dave will (continue to) be a winner. And even the STs might realise they want to be with him not agin' him.
We live in hope. And long may IDS moulder in the well deserved obscurity of the back benches.....
It appears the treacherous Posh Boys have won again... Looking forward to all their lies coming back to bite them and if that cretinous Osborne is indeed "back in the game" all the better as it means this unelectable clown will be humiliated and ripped to shreds by the electorate the moment Labour gets their act together...
Hopefully this will be followed by a very long period in the political wilderness for the lying, treacherous Conservative Party - The party that will always be remembered for bringing a foreign leader into this "State" to threaten their own citizens...
This Government is doing away with 30 years of environmental and archaeological protection introduced by Thatcher to make sure basic checks were done prior to development. Fucking savages. Forget the EU. This bung to their business friends is enough to make sure I never vote for the bastards again.
What exactly are they doing?
The headline is getting rid of the requirement for archaeological or environmental assessments ahead of development.
Well, I agree with you. Ridiculous decision. Not even going to be popular either.
How long will it be before this is dropped following another back-bench Tory revolt?
If "Remain" does win 60-40, George Osborne is most likely back in the game ^_~
More likely the country will insist Dave continues past 2020
Well it would take his record to 6-0 in major elections:
2005 Con leadership - win 2010 General Election - win (effectively - he became PM) 2011 AV referendum - win 2014 Independence referendum - win 2015 General Election - win 2016 EU referendum - win (if that is the result)
I am slightly confused as to where the Sovereignty Bill has disappeared to.
That lying, treacherous quisling Cameron abandoned the idea after he lied to the British people to get himself elected.... How did it all go so wrong...
Comments
ORB (online) - Leave by 2
ICM (phone) - Remain by 10
ICM (online) - Leave by 4
Mori (phone) - Remain by 20
TNS (online) - Leave by 4
An entire business model should fall into disrepute here.
Ipsos MORI 60/40 Remain
ORB (all voters) 58/42 Remain
ICM phone 55/45 Remain
ORB (turnout weighted) 53/47 Remain
Yougov 52/48 Remain
BES 50/50
TNS 48/52 Leave
ICM online 48/52 Leave
Should be getting an Opinium poll this weekend too.
- Romanian and Bulgarian nationals working in the UK rose by 55,000 pa, from 173,000 to 228,000
- total up 131,000 from 808,000 to 939,000 and those from Poland, Latvia, Estonia, Lithuania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Hungary and the Czech Republic from 931,000 to 962,000.
Why do you think we won't be anyway?
And I think Red Tape equals Mr Tyndalls environmental and archeological protection.
A poor value winner ;p
Clinton 44 .. Trump 42
Sanders 54 .. Trump 38
http://www.wbur.org/2016/05/18/wbur-poll-clinton-trump-new-hampshire
If (big if for Leavers, I grant you), the deal has teeth, we have created a 2-speed europe. Which gives us the best of both worlds, IMO.
Immigration apart, which of course for those who care will not be addressed at all.
I think we both reflect a real trend out there. There is a partly-conscious belief that the status quo is not ideal but that a convincing alternative is not being offered. So people just switch off, or they embrace radical change, despite awareness that it may not quite work out. That's why Syriza won not just once but twice - Greeks could see it was difficult and perhaps impossible, but they gave them credit for trying.
Chafee: 5%
Clinton: 56%
O'Malley: 3%
Sanders: 12%
Webb: 7%
Someone else/Not sure: 18%
That's an implied 62% for Hillary (If you remap others to the actual "others"). In the end barely got over 46%.
25 June 2015
We're half a year away from November.
I recommend they get IDS on TV as much as possible for the next 4 weeks to try and reverse this trend...
@JosephineCumbo · 33s34 seconds ago
Sir Philip Green to appear before #BHSpensionfund inquiry on June 15, it has been confirmed.
One of the great problems for LEAVE is that there is no clear and immediate reason to quit now. Yes, migration is a problem, ditto the eurozone. But no casus belli which would give rise to a sentiment that we really must be out of this. If we stay I think we should just keep our powder dry. There are some nasty developments brewing in Europe right now - and we need to see how they all play out.
As a Tory activist you campaigned for a Conservative government led by PM Cameron. You got one and and now after one year you can't wait to see the back of him.
In contrast as a non Conservative I'd prefer to see Cameron serve at least four years.
Funny business politics.
Isn't this a watering down of the watering down?
If "Remain" does win 60-40, George Osborne is most likely back in the game ^_~
For all the heat and precious little light the essentials of the election remain the same. Where does Trump expand his reach and the map?
https://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/researcharchive/3734/Half-believe-the-economy-will-get-worse-in-the-short-term-if-Britain-leaves-the-EU-but-more-likely-to-think-it-will-improve-in-the-long-term.aspx
For me it is a logic fail.
I think you are unduly pessimistic about our prospects if we stay in. But you know that as we have had this conversation before several times so perhaps best leave it there.
Go back to before PPG16 was introduced by Thatcher in the 80s and see the amount of archaeological knowledge that was lost during development. The provision of desk top assessments and watching briefs transformed that and did not slow down development at all. It is a fucking stupid decision.
I am happy to give this administration a fair wind.
Although I'll vote remain, I would have liked a close result - perhaps 52% v 48% - so that the pressure is kept on the EU to make sure that the deal works and is improved over time.
My problem now is that the Tory hard right seem determined to undermine Cameron and the Tory manifesto commitments and a close result would just give them more ammunition and righteous indignation against him.
https://www.thecourier.co.uk/fp/news/politics/175100/snp-mp-caught-affair-scandal-says-claims-expenses-totally-wrong/
I thought the old 'letting out a flat you own in London so staying in hotels' racket had been closed down?
That along with lies about a Sovereignty Bill only 3 months ago et al speaks volumes.
Who wants a shameless liar as leader? Not me.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-norfolk-36320123
It seems I've awarded you your 130th birthday erroneously last night (I think I misunderstood an earlier post from OGH)
Unless you've now become like HMQ and decided to have two birthday's?
The big question is whether, with the small majority, Cameron and/or his successor can use the last four years to achieve as much as the 2010-2015 government did. We shall see.
It's not pessimistic, it is realistic. Name one single time where the government set out a position which said "it's not a political union", "we won't be affected", "Britain has opted-out" that has been proved correct. Maastricht - fail, Nice - Fail, Lisbon - Fail. Every single time our government has assured us that UK interests will be protected and we wouldn't be part of the political union, every time we have been dragged into it kicking and screaming. I'd like for the political union to be abandoned as our government so clearly wants, but history and experience has taught me otherwise, it will continue unabated by our protests, if we're in, we may as well be all-in rather than sort of in.
If (IF) Remain do win, then Dave will (continue to) be a winner. And even the STs might realise they want to be with him not agin' him.
There is no vertical scale, but using foreign exchange data I can see the cliff edge corresponds to a whopping increase of … 0.7 per cent.
It appears the treacherous Posh Boys have won again... Looking forward to all their lies coming back to bite them and if that cretinous Osborne is indeed "back in the game" all the better as it means this unelectable clown will be humiliated and ripped to shreds by the electorate the moment Labour gets their act together...
Hopefully this will be followed by a very long period in the political wilderness for the lying, treacherous Conservative Party - The party that will always be remembered for bringing a foreign leader into this "State" to threaten their own citizens...
I'd give it a couple of weeks at the most.
Cameron's a shameless liar. Stick a fork in him.
2005 Con leadership - win
2010 General Election - win (effectively - he became PM)
2011 AV referendum - win
2014 Independence referendum - win
2015 General Election - win
2016 EU referendum - win (if that is the result)