By the way - someone here recommended 'The Gatekeepers' documentary the other day. I watched it last night - it's really very good. I'm afraid I've forgotten who did so, but my thanks to them should they read this.
I don't think there will be a second vote unless it's impossible to pass it through the Commons.
I think that's why there will have to be a vote, there are enough Tory BOOers who wouldn't vote in favour of a FTA that keeps the four freedoms in the commons and Labour would want to keep the party looking split, even though it will be more like 250 in favour of the FTA vs 80 against compared to the current 160 Leave/170 Remain.
I don't think the votes are there to push a deal through without consulting the people and putting forward two plans, one of which limiting immigration.
If you spend all your time cut and pasting It's your very own life that your wasting for who gives two hoots what a penpusher moots when it's real life you should be out tasting
I got somewhat shouted atr for saying that this morning, although later someone agreed with me. My 20 something grandson and his girlfriend would unquestionably welcome a fall in house prices; even as teachers it’s not easy. Whether someone in the position I was 35 years ago, when prices went into a downward spiral, with a business in trouble and little remaining equity in my house would be as keen I doubt.
Yes, it wouldn't benefit everybody but if prices dropped so would rents.
More people would be better off.
Both work on supply and demand, of course. Prices would drop if people couldn’t afford to buy, which suggests that people wouldn’t be better off.
I am surprised that the Remain campaign have not spelt out to the Over 65 dynamic that a vote to Leave will likely mean a cut to their pension. Indeed this could in theory be replicated for anyone who derives income from the state as a contracting economy in shock from an EU exit would likely mean public spending cuts. The Over 65’s have been insulated from much of the austerity of recent years but a Brexit would induce more painful cuts.
Another good day for Remain with an increased dose of Project Fear on the economy and Sir John Major to speak up for free movement at last.Leave is increasingly looking like a marginalised sect of weird old white folk who deny anthropegenic climate change and want to turn the NHS into Tescos.
I don't think there will be a second vote unless it's impossible to pass it through the Commons.
I think that's why there will have to be a vote, there are enough Tory BOOers who wouldn't vote in favour of a FTA that keeps the four freedoms in the commons and Labour would want to keep the party looking split, even though it will be more like 250 in favour of the FTA vs 80 against compared to the current 160 Leave/170 Remain.
I don't think the votes are there to push a deal through without consulting the people and putting forward two plans, one of which limiting immigration.
That's what I expect. The Tories will not be able to pass a bill themselves and Labour won't help them out, or will attach impossible (from the Tory point of view) conditions to doing so. One has to keep in mind that there is a huge prize for Labour if the Tories really do split. As in split split.
And asking the public would be the obvious manoeuvre for a Tory leader trying to prevent that.
The Leave.EU campaign seems to be completely clueless.
It is quite extraordinary.
The Remain campaign predicts economic chaos.
The Leave campaign replies "You're right, but..."
It's an Ed Miliband moment.
At one stage a few years ago I might have voted for Brexit. I have changed my mind as the potential economic dislocation and complete absence of a viable alternative economic strategy in relation to trade has firmly made me inclined to vote for Remain. The Leave campaign do not seem to understand that the EU is a developed market and the demand for the services of the city of London for instance are unlikely to be replicated by new markets in underdeveloped economies. The services of the city of London are dependent on economies having reached the stage of complexity, where they need derivative trading, future markets and the like. I don’t think the Leave campaign is in the remote sense credible.
I also wonder if we voted to exit the EU if other countries population would look for substitute products and services from anywhere but UK. My thinking on this is derived from the Scottish vote in 2014 as had the referendum gone the other way I would be disinclined to buy products from Scotland, something that I know other English people would have embraced.
Immigration is another point, I was opposed to much of the Immigration that occurred post 1997. This is now irreversible and the establishment IMO have embraced a strategy of whoever is in power of increasing migration to enhance the size of the economy to ensure that the UK remains a significant global player. If the UK exits the EU does anyone really think the eastern Europeans will all return to their country of origin and what happens to the businesses that are reliant on the immigrants for their Labour? This would be part of the unacceptable shock to the economy through uncertainty as the Immigrants would save money rather than spending it if they thought they were going to be removed from the UK. So I think on balance Remain has to be the only game in town as the loss of sovereignty has already occurred and we are all surviving despite this.
I agree with this, and because I am Scot, with the extra perspective and complication of Scotland having equivalent issues. I am very sympathetic to the idea of being master of our ship, whether the ship is Britain or Scotland. But the world we live in is a globalised one. What problem are we actually solving, or indeed realistically can solve, through isolation? You go through a huge amount of hassle and end up with something less than what you have already or it looks very similar to what you have already.
Hypothetical scenario:- Leave wins but it very quickly becomes evident that the economic warnings from IMF, G20, BoE etc were actually correct, trade negotiations become a nightmare etc etc - which individuals stand to benefit most? Where is money to be made?
I don't think there will be a second vote unless it's impossible to pass it through the Commons.
I think that's why there will have to be a vote, there are enough Tory BOOers who wouldn't vote in favour of a FTA that keeps the four freedoms in the commons and Labour would want to keep the party looking split, even though it will be more like 250 in favour of the FTA vs 80 against compared to the current 160 Leave/170 Remain.
I don't think the votes are there to push a deal through without consulting the people and putting forward two plans, one of which limiting immigration.
I think that without something on immigration it doesn't even get to the House.
Good fun Mr. Meeks. People ask how this conflicts with work. I would answer that an active brain can't be quelled. Forty hour week, Pfffft.
By the way, here is the first couple of sentences from the Wiki entry for automaton:
"An automaton (pronunciated /ɔːˈtɒmətən/)(plural: automata or automatons) is a self-operating machine, or a machine or control mechanism designed to follow automatically a predetermined sequence of operations, or respond to predetermined instructions.[1] Some automata, such as bellstrikers in mechanical clocks, are designed to give the illusion to the casual observer that they are operating under their own power."
If you spend all your time cut and pasting It's your very own life that your wasting for who gives two hoots what a penpusher moots when it's real life you should be out tasting
If you spend all your time cut and pasting It's your very own life that your wasting for who gives two hoots what a penpusher moots when it's real life you should be out tasting
I got somewhat shouted atr for saying that this morning, although later someone agreed with me. My 20 something grandson and his girlfriend would unquestionably welcome a fall in house prices; even as teachers it’s not easy. Whether someone in the position I was 35 years ago, when prices went into a downward spiral, with a business in trouble and little remaining equity in my house would be as keen I doubt.
Yes, it wouldn't benefit everybody but if prices dropped so would rents.
More people would be better off.
Both work on supply and demand, of course. Prices would drop if people couldn’t afford to buy, which suggests that people wouldn’t be better off.
As a free marketeer I take your point about supply and demand, but a free marketeer called Thatcher distorted the market by selling govt stock at massively discounted prices. She wasn't the only one but Labour, supposedly the party of the ordinary person, continued to deceive their voters.
As a strong Remainer, I do think the Remain campaign has been splurging out too much and too quickly on the negative arguments, the IMF and Mark Carney both so close together and used up early seems like a waste to me. There will be more and more diminishing returns. A well placed Pensions or House Price warning a week before the vote would have reached the most people and wavered more undecideds. Maybe time to change track and start putting a more positive vision of our membership forward for a while?
Hypothetical scenario:- Leave wins but it very quickly becomes evident that the economic warnings from IMF, G20, BoE etc were actually correct, trade negotiations become a nightmare etc etc - which individuals stand to benefit most? Where is money to be made?
I don't think there will be a second vote unless it's impossible to pass it through the Commons.
I think that's why there will have to be a vote, there are enough Tory BOOers who wouldn't vote in favour of a FTA that keeps the four freedoms in the commons and Labour would want to keep the party looking split, even though it will be more like 250 in favour of the FTA vs 80 against compared to the current 160 Leave/170 Remain.
I don't think the votes are there to push a deal through without consulting the people and putting forward two plans, one of which limiting immigration.
I think that without something on immigration it doesn't even get to the House.
Hypothetical scenario:- Leave wins but it very quickly becomes evident that the economic warnings from IMF, G20, BoE etc were actually correct, trade negotiations become a nightmare etc etc - which individuals stand to benefit most? Where is money to be made?
Backing NOM or laying Conservative Majority perhaps? Those are decent bets anyway imo (but probably long range).
Backing Corbyn for PM at this stage won't be a winner as there'd be a Tory successor to Cameron first.
Logged in for the first time today... and no, actually I really can't be bothered with yet another panicked attempt by Meeks to sledge Leave, its all getting a bit desperate sounding.
Possibly he saw that nice poll that showed how sensitive the Remain vote was to immigration numbers, which by happy chance arrived practically the same time as the report that the official figures were bilge, and about 2.5m light of the real figure.
Frankly the above sort of hand waving is going to cut no ice whatsoever with the voting public when compared to the realities of having been lied to about immigration figures for years and years. Its not even the immigration figures that are going to kill it, its the lies, the systematic, politically motivated LIES.
I am surprised that the Remain campaign have not spelt out to the Over 65 dynamic that a vote to Leave will likely mean a cut to their pension. Indeed this could in theory be replicated for anyone who derives income from the state as a contracting economy in shock from an EU exit would likely mean public spending cuts. The Over 65’s have been insulated from much of the austerity of recent years but a Brexit would induce more painful cuts.
I like this economy v sovereignty thing, its hypothetical but no matter. If somebody offers you money but the price is you would no longer be able to make your own decisions, would you accept the money?
I like this economy v sovereignty thing, its hypothetical but no matter. If somebody offers you money but the price is you would no longer be able to make your own decisions, would you accept the money?
I like this economy v sovereignty thing, its hypothetical but no matter. If somebody offers you money but the price is you would no longer be able to make your own decisions, would you accept the money?
"Those who would give up essential Liberty, to purchase a little temporary Safety, deserve neither Liberty nor Safety." - Benjamin Franklin, 1755.
If you spend all your time cut and pasting It's your very own life that your wasting for who gives two hoots what a penpusher moots when it's real life you should be out tasting
I am surprised that the Remain campaign have not spelt out to the Over 65 dynamic that a vote to Leave will likely mean a cut to their pension. Indeed this could in theory be replicated for anyone who derives income from the state as a contracting economy in shock from an EU exit would likely mean public spending cuts. The Over 65’s have been insulated from much of the austerity of recent years but a Brexit would induce more painful cuts.
Brexit would have no impact at all on pensions.
I’m sure that Brexit would have no effect on the OAPension, at least in the short term but what about public service pensions? Weren’t they cut in Ireland and Greece after the crash? IIRC they were reduced here between the wars as well. Would depend of course on whether the threatened plagues of locusts, frogs etc actually materialised,
Hypothetical scenario:- Leave wins but it very quickly becomes evident that the economic warnings from IMF, G20, BoE etc were actually correct, trade negotiations become a nightmare etc etc - which individuals stand to benefit most? Where is money to be made?
Simplest money to be made would be by shorting sterling or by buying US dollars or (perhaps even better) Swiss Francs - money will flee the Euro as well as Sterling in the event of Brexit.
Longer term, any company which exports mainly to the US or to other non-Eurozone markets is likely to be a winner from the fall in sterling. And of course anyone holding US stocks will benefit in a similar way. Or you could short UK domestic stocks and go long on US-focused stocks to benefit from the damage to the UK economy.
I can't see any upside other than the exchange rate effect, in the foreseeable future.
Of course if there's a Remain result these will be a money-losing strategies as Sterling bounces back - it's not a one-way bet! For that reason, my preferred strategy in my pension is simply the rather boring one of maintaining a well-diversified portfolio with a higher-than-conventional proportion of non-UK assets.
I shall shamelessly not post anything to do with the threader, but to let you know the signed copy of your book arrived today. As that copy of the book is earmarked for my son's birthday present, I am frustrated that I can't get read it and give it a review
However, I shall order another copy for myself and hopefully it will arrive soon (then when I come up to Leeds in June you can sign it as the price for your dinner at the Brazilian Place).
For those on here wondering WTF I am talking about, I am of of course referring to "Thaddeus White's beautifully written and immensely funny fantasy comedy" currently consisting of two parts but now available in one volume - The adventures of Sir Edric.
Thaddeus White is better known to most of us on here as Morris Dancer, an idiot (sorry, incredibly handsome and talented chap) who sells his work far, far too cheaply.
If you spend all your time cut and pasting It's your very own life that your wasting for who gives two hoots what a penpusher moots when it's real life you should be out tasting
I am surprised that the Remain campaign have not spelt out to the Over 65 dynamic that a vote to Leave will likely mean a cut to their pension. Indeed this could in theory be replicated for anyone who derives income from the state as a contracting economy in shock from an EU exit would likely mean public spending cuts. The Over 65’s have been insulated from much of the austerity of recent years but a Brexit would induce more painful cuts.
Brexit would have no impact at all on pensions.
I’m sure that Brexit would have no effect on the OAPension, at least in the short term but what about public service pensions? Weren’t they cut in Ireland and Greece after the crash? IIRC they were reduced here between the wars as well. Would depend of course on whether the threatened plagues of locusts, frogs etc actually materialised,
Five years on, people would be wondering what all the fuss had been about.
There was a young Leaver from Rye Who dismissed Remain's warnings as pie in the sky He got one hell of a shock When his work closed the lock Because Brexit had caused it to die
I like this economy v sovereignty thing, its hypothetical but no matter. If somebody offers you money but the price is you would no longer be able to make your own decisions, would you accept the money?
That's what having a job is.
That's why I like the argument, the implication is we're working for the EU
So when he finally starts talking smart, he'll sound really, really smart...
Guy's a genius!
I don't know about that. Maybe so. But it's been obvious all along that Trump has been talking the talk of the blue collar dispossessed, who are very very angry, especially with Obama. But unless he can broaden out now he won't have enough support to win.
I am surprised that the Remain campaign have not spelt out to the Over 65 dynamic that a vote to Leave will likely mean a cut to their pension. Indeed this could in theory be replicated for anyone who derives income from the state as a contracting economy in shock from an EU exit would likely mean public spending cuts. The Over 65’s have been insulated from much of the austerity of recent years but a Brexit would induce more painful cuts.
Brexit would have no impact at all on pensions.
If the Government receives less in tax revenue due to economic shock, where will they get the funds to sustain above inflation increases in Pensions? These are the only group insulted from austerity so far. If they are more likely to vote for Brexit, why should they be insulated from what they vote for? Much of the austerity of low hanging fruit has already been done so tough decisions will need to be taken. Working age benefits including those with disabilities have been frozen for 4 years, even for those with severe conditions so why should pensioners be exempt?
I like this economy v sovereignty thing, its hypothetical but no matter. If somebody offers you money but the price is you would no longer be able to make your own decisions, would you accept the money?
If you spend all your time cut and pasting It's your very own life that your wasting for who gives two hoots what a penpusher moots when it's real life you should be out tasting
You are wasting your talents running an engineering firm, you really are.
I like this economy v sovereignty thing, its hypothetical but no matter. If somebody offers you money but the price is you would no longer be able to make your own decisions, would you accept the money?
"Those who would give up essential Liberty, to purchase a little temporary Safety, deserve neither Liberty nor Safety." - Benjamin Franklin, 1755.
A fragrant French lady called Christine Says the case for Remaining is pristine She's allegedly criminal So success has been minimal We've concluded she's taking the pisstine
There was a young Leaver from Rye Who dismissed Remain's warnings as pie in the sky He got one hell of a shock When his work closed the lock Because Brexit had caused it to die
I am surprised that the Remain campaign have not spelt out to the Over 65 dynamic that a vote to Leave will likely mean a cut to their pension. Indeed this could in theory be replicated for anyone who derives income from the state as a contracting economy in shock from an EU exit would likely mean public spending cuts. The Over 65’s have been insulated from much of the austerity of recent years but a Brexit would induce more painful cuts.
Brexit would have no impact at all on pensions.
I’m sure that Brexit would have no effect on the OAPension, at least in the short term but what about public service pensions? Weren’t they cut in Ireland and Greece after the crash? IIRC they were reduced here between the wars as well. Would depend of course on whether the threatened plagues of locusts, frogs etc actually materialised,
Five years on, people would be wondering what all the fuss had been about.
If we do Leave, I hope you are right; I suspect much of the world will look very different though.
I like this economy v sovereignty thing, its hypothetical but no matter. If somebody offers you money but the price is you would no longer be able to make your own decisions, would you accept the money?
How much are you offering?
Isn’t that a bit like marriage? Although there you hand over the money as well as not making the decisions.
A fragrant French lady called Christine Says the case for Remaining is pristine She's allegedly criminal So success has been minimal We've concluded she's taking the pisstine
Surely the principal response of Leave to the above claims, in evidence on this very thread, is to exaggerate the claims themselves and thereby make them absurd. Eg, "the IMF says the sky will fall in." This then tees up a comment like, "We've survived world wars, Brexit will be no problem."
This might be quite effective. I'm not sure. If you are already genuinely concerned by the potential negative effects of Brexit (as I am, fwiw) then it's irritating to have someone laugh at the idea. Not sure that describes a majority of people though. So this tactic may be working quite well.
I recall that even before the campaign had really started Dan Hannan was tweeting pictures of dinosaurs in the Thames captioned "this is what will happen..."
By the way, there must be a name for the rhetorical device of making your opponent's argument seem ridiculous by exaggerating it isn't there? But what is it? (I don't think it's hyperbole as that (iirc) is properly speaking exaggeration for emphasis whereas this is exaggeration for ridicule.)
LEAVE doesn't really need to make these arguments look ridiculous by exaggerating them, because they are already so exaggerated. Can you really caricature a caricature?
The PM's 'WAR' speech being the most obvious example...
That's an example of what I mean. Cameron said that there would be risks to security and stability. This is relayed as "Cameron says Brexit means World War III (lol)."
Yes. It is absurd and childish; it's the "appeal to ridicule" or "reductio ad ridiculum" fallacy ("reductio ad absurdum" is something else).
Most of the Leave criticism that I've seen so far is either pure ad hominem stuff or unsubstantiated claims of corruption or incompetence together with the aforementioned reductio ad ridiculum tactic. If Leave disagree with a claim, then let's see them rebut it with facts or point out any inconsistencies or spurious assumptions. That's the way it's done in science, but I guess politics is different.
There was a young Leaver from Rye Who dismissed Remain's warnings as pie in the sky He got one hell of a shock When his work closed the lock Because Brexit had caused it to die
I like this economy v sovereignty thing, its hypothetical but no matter. If somebody offers you money but the price is you would no longer be able to make your own decisions, would you accept the money?
How much are you offering?
You don't know the price but you're considering it.
I like this economy v sovereignty thing, its hypothetical but no matter. If somebody offers you money but the price is you would no longer be able to make your own decisions, would you accept the money?
Unfortunately for the Brexiteers the question is backwards.
We currently have freedom of movement and economic prosperity.
So the question is "How much of your income are you willing to sacrifice to make the decision to prevent you or your neighbours from being able to hire a competent Polish plumber, and get a local YOP scheme trainee instead?"
Isn’t that a bit like marriage? Although there you hand over the money as well as not making the decisions.
LOL!
I got into a bit of trouble the other day when I poured a particularly fine claret for my wife and myself, with the comment that, although I had promised to share my worldly goods, I hadn't necessarily promised to share them in equal proportions.
Surely the principal response of Leave to the above claims, in evidence on this very thread, is to exaggerate the claims themselves and thereby make them absurd. Eg, "the IMF says the sky will fall in." This then tees up a comment like, "We've survived world wars, Brexit will be no problem."
This might be quite effective. I'm not sure. If you are already genuinely concerned by the potential negative effects of Brexit (as I am, fwiw) then it's irritating to have someone laugh at the idea. Not sure that describes a majority of people though. So this tactic may be working quite well.
I recall that even before the campaign had really started Dan Hannan was tweeting pictures of dinosaurs in the Thames captioned "this is what will happen..."
By the way, there must be a name for the rhetorical device of making your opponent's argument seem ridiculous by exaggerating it isn't there? But what is it? (I don't think it's hyperbole as that (iirc) is properly speaking exaggeration for emphasis whereas this is exaggeration for ridicule.)
LEAVE doesn't really need to make these arguments look ridiculous by exaggerating them, because they are already so exaggerated. Can you really caricature a caricature?
The PM's 'WAR' speech being the most obvious example...
That's an example of what I mean. Cameron said that there would be risks to security and stability. This is relayed as "Cameron says Brexit means World War III (lol)."
Yes. It is absurd and childish; it's the "appeal to ridicule" or "reductio ad ridiculum" fallacy ("reductio ad absurdum" is something else).
Most of the Leave criticism that I've seen so far is either pure ad hominem stuff or unsubstantiated claims of corruption or incompetence together with the aforementioned reductio ad ridiculum tactic. If Leave disagree with a claim, then let's see them rebut it with facts or point out any inconsistencies or spurious assumptions. That's the way it's done in science, but I guess politics is different.
I like this economy v sovereignty thing, its hypothetical but no matter. If somebody offers you money but the price is you would no longer be able to make your own decisions, would you accept the money?
Unfortunately for the Brexiteers the question is backwards.
We currently have freedom of movement and economic prosperity.
So the question is "How much of your income are you willing to sacrifice to make the decision to prevent you or your neighbours from being able to hire a competent Polish plumber, and get a local YOP scheme trainee instead?"
A fragrant French lady called Christine Says the case for Remaining is pristine She's allegedly criminal So success has been minimal We've concluded she's taking the pisstine
While I obviously disagree with the IMF's assessment, everyone I know- irrespective of their political persuasion- who has worked with Mme Legarde has spoken highly of her.
I don't think there will be a second vote unless it's impossible to pass it through the Commons.
I think that's why there will have to be a vote, there are enough Tory BOOers who wouldn't vote in favour of a FTA that keeps the four freedoms in the commons and Labour would want to keep the party looking split, even though it will be more like 250 in favour of the FTA vs 80 against compared to the current 160 Leave/170 Remain.
I don't think the votes are there to push a deal through without consulting the people and putting forward two plans, one of which limiting immigration.
That's what I expect. The Tories will not be able to pass a bill themselves and Labour won't help them out, or will attach impossible (from the Tory point of view) conditions to doing so. One has to keep in mind that there is a huge prize for Labour if the Tories really do split. As in split split.
And asking the public would be the obvious manoeuvre for a Tory leader trying to prevent that.
There is a very big political problem if Leave do win because while the country will obviously be more than 50% in favour of leaving, but they are only a faction within one party at Westminster with most MPs favouring remaining in the EU and in no particular mood to help the other lot out. The Leave faction doesn't have a coherent set of objectives for the post-EU settlement. So what's going to happen? A period of stasis while the Leavers sort themselves out and elect a new Conservative government and decide what they are going to do next? New elections which Corbyn unusually might win?
I like this economy v sovereignty thing, its hypothetical but no matter. If somebody offers you money but the price is you would no longer be able to make your own decisions, would you accept the money?
Unfortunately for the Brexiteers the question is backwards.
We currently have freedom of movement and economic prosperity.
So the question is "How much of your income are you willing to sacrifice to make the decision to prevent you or your neighbours from being able to hire a competent Polish plumber, and get a local YOP scheme trainee instead?"
You look far less silly when you c&p tweets.
Why do you suggest we would be unable to hire a Polish plumber?
I like this economy v sovereignty thing, its hypothetical but no matter. If somebody offers you money but the price is you would no longer be able to make your own decisions, would you accept the money?
I don't think that's the choice at all, but I think a lot of people would take the money and then regret it later.
They'd then rationalise their original decision by saying they were duped at the time.
I like this economy v sovereignty thing, its hypothetical but no matter. If somebody offers you money but the price is you would no longer be able to make your own decisions, would you accept the money?
How much are you offering?
Isn’t that a bit like marriage? Although there you hand over the money as well as not making the decisions.
What do you think we've been doing in the EU for all these years?
The Remainers are sounding like the bloke who says to a woman:
Would have sex with me for £1m? I'll think about it OK in the meantime will you sex with me for £5? What type of woman do you think I am? We've already established that, now we're negotiating the price.
I like this economy v sovereignty thing, its hypothetical but no matter. If somebody offers you money but the price is you would no longer be able to make your own decisions, would you accept the money?
How much are you offering?
Isn’t that a bit like marriage? Although there you hand over the money as well as not making the decisions.
What do you think we've been doing in the EU for all these years?
Organisations, whatever the name, Give their reasons for voting Remain However it's funny They all take EU Money And they're hoping for more of the same.
The Remainers are sounding like the bloke who says to a woman:
Would have sex with me for £1m? I'll think about it OK in the meantime will you sex with me for £5? What type of woman do you think I am? We've already established that, now we're negotiating the price.
I like this economy v sovereignty thing, its hypothetical but no matter. If somebody offers you money but the price is you would no longer be able to make your own decisions, would you accept the money?
Unfortunately for the Brexiteers the question is backwards.
We currently have freedom of movement and economic prosperity.
So the question is "How much of your income are you willing to sacrifice to make the decision to prevent you or your neighbours from being able to hire a competent Polish plumber, and get a local YOP scheme trainee instead?"
You look far less silly when you c&p tweets.
Why do you suggest we would be unable to hire a Polish plumber?
I don't think there will be a second vote unless it's impossible to pass it through the Commons.
I think that's why there will have to be a vote, there are enough Tory BOOers who wouldn't vote in favour of a FTA that keeps the four freedoms in the commons and Labour would want to keep the party looking split, even though it will be more like 250 in favour of the FTA vs 80 against compared to the current 160 Leave/170 Remain.
I don't think the votes are there to push a deal through without consulting the people and putting forward two plans, one of which limiting immigration.
That's what I expect. The Tories will not be able to pass a bill themselves and Labour won't help them out, or will attach impossible (from the Tory point of view) conditions to doing so. One has to keep in mind that there is a huge prize for Labour if the Tories really do split. As in split split.
And asking the public would be the obvious manoeuvre for a Tory leader trying to prevent that.
There is a very big political problem if Leave do win because while the country will obviously be more than 50% in favour of leaving,
It's very unlikely that the country will be more than 50% in favour of leaving. If 51% vote to leave on a turnout of 60% then 30.6% of the country will have voted to Leave. Bearing in mind that about 70% of MPs, almost all business and professional organisations and the City are opposed to leaving I don't think it is at all certain that we would really leave under such circumstances.
The Remainers are sounding like the bloke who says to a woman:
Would have sex with me for £1m? I'll think about it OK in the meantime will you sex with me for £5? What type of woman do you think I am? We've already established that, now we're negotiating the price.
There was a young Leaver from Rye Who dismissed Remain's warnings as pie in the sky He got one hell of a shock When his work closed the lock Because Brexit had caused it to die
Naught but REMAIN scaremongering/bullshitting
There was a young man of vote.Leave Who claimed "you have to believe!" His hat of tinfoil Made his blood boil So on PB he began to seeth.
The Remainers are sounding like the bloke who says to a woman:
Would have sex with me for £1m? I'll think about it OK in the meantime will you sex with me for £5? What type of woman do you think I am? We've already established that, now we're negotiating the price.
Roses are red Violets are blue Unless we vote Leave In which case we shall be CONSUMED BY A BLACK HOLE, following which the concept of colour will be meaningless.
Comments
There hasn't been one mention of the Second Punic War*.
*Until now.
I don't think the votes are there to push a deal through without consulting the people and putting forward two plans, one of which limiting immigration.
It's your very own life that your wasting
for who gives two hoots
what a penpusher moots
when it's real life you should be out tasting
High inflation in house prices gets welcomed or ignored.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/boxing/2016/05/13/tyson-fury-launches-into-foul-mouthed-anti-semitic-video-rant-an/
And asking the public would be the obvious manoeuvre for a Tory leader trying to prevent that.
It will be a huge part of Leave's mandate.
By the way, here is the first couple of sentences from the Wiki entry for automaton:
"An automaton (pronunciated /ɔːˈtɒmətən/)(plural: automata or automatons) is a self-operating machine, or a machine or control mechanism designed to follow automatically a predetermined sequence of operations, or respond to predetermined instructions.[1] Some automata, such as bellstrikers in mechanical clocks, are designed to give the illusion to the casual observer that they are operating under their own power."
We have had "Res ipsa loquitur" though.
**But amazing limerick
The text is addressed to Osborne and Laggard, although Osborne is a voter but not Laggard.
Or voters as they are known
Backing Corbyn for PM at this stage won't be a winner as there'd be a Tory successor to Cameron first.
Possibly he saw that nice poll that showed how sensitive the Remain vote was to immigration numbers, which by happy chance arrived practically the same time as the report that the official figures were bilge, and about 2.5m light of the real figure.
Frankly the above sort of hand waving is going to cut no ice whatsoever with the voting public when compared to the realities of having been lied to about immigration figures for years and years. Its not even the immigration figures that are going to kill it, its the lies, the systematic, politically motivated LIES.
Oh dear.
Guy's a genius!
"your' as in 'belonging to you'
rather than
"you are"
Would depend of course on whether the threatened plagues of locusts, frogs etc actually materialised,
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/05/01/its-the-economy-stupid/
Longer term, any company which exports mainly to the US or to other non-Eurozone markets is likely to be a winner from the fall in sterling. And of course anyone holding US stocks will benefit in a similar way. Or you could short UK domestic stocks and go long on US-focused stocks to benefit from the damage to the UK economy.
I can't see any upside other than the exchange rate effect, in the foreseeable future.
Of course if there's a Remain result these will be a money-losing strategies as Sterling bounces back - it's not a one-way bet! For that reason, my preferred strategy in my pension is simply the rather boring one of maintaining a well-diversified portfolio with a higher-than-conventional proportion of non-UK assets.
I shall shamelessly not post anything to do with the threader, but to let you know the signed copy of your book arrived today. As that copy of the book is earmarked for my son's birthday present, I am frustrated that I can't get read it and give it a review
However, I shall order another copy for myself and hopefully it will arrive soon (then when I come up to Leeds in June you can sign it as the price for your dinner at the Brazilian Place).
For those on here wondering WTF I am talking about, I am of of course referring to "Thaddeus White's beautifully written and immensely funny fantasy comedy" currently consisting of two parts but now available in one volume - The adventures of Sir Edric.
Thaddeus White is better known to most of us on here as Morris Dancer, an idiot (sorry, incredibly handsome and talented chap) who sells his work far, far too cheaply.
Unless the idea is they look at the poster but don't read the text. Could work...
https://www.washingtonpost.com/video/politics/in-1991-interview-trump-spokesman-sounds-a-lot-like-trump/2016/05/12/965c82e2-188e-11e6-971a-dadf9ab18869_video.html
Who dismissed Remain's warnings as pie in the sky
He got one hell of a shock
When his work closed the lock
Because Brexit had caused it to die
Says the case for Remaining is pristine
She's allegedly criminal
So success has been minimal
We've concluded she's taking the pisstine
Most of the Leave criticism that I've seen so far is either pure ad hominem stuff or unsubstantiated claims of corruption or incompetence together with the aforementioned reductio ad ridiculum tactic. If Leave disagree with a claim, then let's see them rebut it with facts or point out any inconsistencies or spurious assumptions. That's the way it's done in science, but I guess politics is different.
My answer is, no thanks.
We currently have freedom of movement and economic prosperity.
So the question is "How much of your income are you willing to sacrifice to make the decision to prevent you or your neighbours from being able to hire a competent Polish plumber, and get a local YOP scheme trainee instead?"
I got into a bit of trouble the other day when I poured a particularly fine claret for my wife and myself, with the comment that, although I had promised to share my worldly goods, I hadn't necessarily promised to share them in equal proportions.
Why do you suggest we would be unable to hire a Polish plumber?
They'd then rationalise their original decision by saying they were duped at the time.
https://twitter.com/ChrisGiles_/status/731159685622009857
how's the new lifestyle ?
It's not the economy, stupid. It's about Sovereignty, which is code for EU migrants. You know, people from Poland, who plumb.
Would have sex with me for £1m?
I'll think about it
OK in the meantime will you sex with me for £5?
What type of woman do you think I am?
We've already established that, now we're negotiating the price.
(Cf. India, £279 million in 2015)
Violets are blue
Unless we vote Leave
In which case EVERYTHING DIES
Give their reasons for voting Remain
However it's funny
They all take EU Money
And they're hoping for more of the same.
Ant. my forklift truck driver thinks they're all wankers.
I suppose that's a score draw as they both have one vote each.
That when the voting is near.
The UK cash cow
Will say F* Off now.
And the EU will then be too dear.
Who claimed "you have to believe!"
His hat of tinfoil
Made his blood boil
So on PB he began to seeth.
Roses are red
Violets are blue
Unless we vote Leave
In which case we shall be CONSUMED BY A BLACK HOLE, following which the concept of colour will be meaningless.