Actually the claim that Northern Ireland will suffer particularly badly from Brexit is uncontentious, surely.
Yep, if we are going to be controlling immigration from the EU post-Brexit, full checks at the UK/Irish border will have to come into force. That should go down well.
So let's be held to ransom by Gerry Adams and the IRA then, shall we?
@SeanT That comment reminds me of the Corbynites all smug last September because the Conservatives had exhausted all their ammunition on their guy to little effect.
We're going to get authority figure after authority figure speaking out all the way until 23 June.
Actually the claim that Northern Ireland will suffer particularly badly from Brexit is uncontentious, surely.
Yep, if we are going to be controlling immigration from the EU post-Brexit, full checks at the UK/Irish border will have to come into force. That should go down well.
I'm not sure what the agenda is here (if there is one). I'll be honest - I don't really care what the IMF, President Obama, David Cameron, Antifrank, Scott P or anyone else says. Indeed, I don't even much care if there is a temporary economic reversal from us leaving the European Union.
I understand there are those who do and those who are terrified they might lose out on £4,300 by 2030 if we don't vote to REMAIN and those who fear we will collapse into darkness if we don't stay with the EU.
The analogy of the jailer telling the prisoner how lucky he is to be behind bars comes readily to mind.
I'm reminded when I read Richard N's posts of the prisoner chained to the wall in the Life of Brian.
Mr. Herdson, I feel some sympathy for those who do want to take a more serious approach to the campaign. The problem is that any serious positive case will immediately come under a microscope and be torn to pieces. And if that's going to happen, they may as well lie massively and hope some of the fear sticks.
I've said it before, but the media's as much to blame, perhaps more so, than the politicians for the way things are done generally, as well as specifically for this referendum.
The next batch of polls - over the coming week - will be absolutely crucial.
I cannot imagine REMAIN have much ammunition left. If MEEKS's ludicrous graphic has one use, it is to show exactly how many authority figures have now spoken - basically all of the ones that count, apart from the Queen, and God, and they are both eurosceptic.
So that's it, for REMAIN. They've used their biggest guns, the powder is burnt. They must surely expect some major poll movement in the next ten days, in their favour.
If it doesn't happen, they are in the deepest shit.
It may be me but it seems the commentariat has stopped hanging on to every word 'authority' figures say and have started asking some more searching questions - and occasionally saying b*ll*cks in the way we do on here.
Actually the claim that Northern Ireland will suffer particularly badly from Brexit is uncontentious, surely.
Yep, if we are going to be controlling immigration from the EU post-Brexit, full checks at the UK/Irish border will have to come into force. That should go down well.
Why would membership of the EU affect the CTA, which has the Isle of Man and Bailiwick of Guernsey and Jersey in it as non EU members already contained ?
Actually the claim that Northern Ireland will suffer particularly badly from Brexit is uncontentious, surely.
Yep, if we are going to be controlling immigration from the EU post-Brexit, full checks at the UK/Irish border will have to come into force. That should go down well.
Ireland isn't in Schengen
But it does have free movement for EU citizens, as does NI currently. That will not be the case post-Brexit.
Actually the claim that Northern Ireland will suffer particularly badly from Brexit is uncontentious, surely.
Yep, if we are going to be controlling immigration from the EU post-Brexit, full checks at the UK/Irish border will have to come into force. That should go down well.
So let's be held to ransom by Gerry Adams and the IRA then, shall we?
@SeanT That comment reminds me of the Corbynites all smug last September because the Conservatives had exhausted all their ammunition on their guy to little effect.
We're going to get authority figure after authority figure speaking out all the way until 23 June.
If you want a vision of the future imagine an authority figure stamping on a human face - forever
@SeanT That comment reminds me of the Corbynites all smug last September because the Conservatives had exhausted all their ammunition on their guy to little effect.
We're going to get authority figure after authority figure speaking out all the way until 23 June.
Well they're betting the farm they've got the right plan, if it screws up there are going to be an awful lot of authority figures with severley diminshed authority.
The next batch of polls - over the coming week - will be absolutely crucial.
I cannot imagine REMAIN have much ammunition left. If MEEKS's ludicrous graphic has one use, it is to show exactly how many authority figures have now spoken - basically all of the ones that count, apart from the Queen, and God, and they are both eurosceptic.
So that's it, for REMAIN. They've used their biggest guns, the powder is burnt. They must surely expect some major poll movement in the next ten days, in their favour.
If it doesn't happen, they are in the deepest shit.
Possibly a small swing to Remain next week I think.
People trust Carney, for some reason, plus the HMG leaflets have gone to Scotland, NI and Wales and everyone is now focussed on it because of the campaign. On the debit side, WWIII might have caused a reaction, plus the migration figures (albeit successfully news managed by Osborne) and Boris might be mobilising a few Leavers around the South.
@SeanT That comment reminds me of the Corbynites all smug last September because the Conservatives had exhausted all their ammunition on their guy to little effect.
We're going to get authority figure after authority figure speaking out all the way until 23 June.
Well they're betting the farm they've got the right plan, if it screws up there are going to be an awful lot of authority figures with severley diminshed authority.
Actually the claim that Northern Ireland will suffer particularly badly from Brexit is uncontentious, surely.
Yep, if we are going to be controlling immigration from the EU post-Brexit, full checks at the UK/Irish border will have to come into force. That should go down well.
Ireland isn't in Schengen
But it does have free movement for EU citizens, as does NI currently. That will not be the case post-Brexit.
That actually doesn't matter, there would still be need for physical border checks in Ireland unless they decided to join Schengen.
The next batch of polls - over the coming week - will be absolutely crucial.
I cannot imagine REMAIN have much ammunition left. If MEEKS's ludicrous graphic has one use, it is to show exactly how many authority figures have now spoken - basically all of the ones that count, apart from the Queen, and God, and they are both eurosceptic.
So that's it, for REMAIN. They've used their biggest guns, the powder is burnt. They must surely expect some major poll movement in the next ten days, in their favour.
If it doesn't happen, they are in the deepest shit.
Possibly a small swing to Remain next week I think.
People trust Carney, for some reason, plus the HMG leaflets have gone to Scotland, NI and Wales and everyone is now focussed on it because of the campaign. On the debit side, WWIII might have caused a reaction, plus the migration figures (albeit successfully news managed by Osborne) and Boris might be mobilising a few Leavers around the South.
Or number of don't knows might go up; don't know.
Actually, that's it: i just don't know.
I think Leave may have to challenge Carney a bit more.
The next batch of polls - over the coming week - will be absolutely crucial.
I cannot imagine REMAIN have much ammunition left. If MEEKS's ludicrous graphic has one use, it is to show exactly how many authority figures have now spoken - basically all of the ones that count, apart from the Queen, and God, and they are both eurosceptic.
So that's it, for REMAIN. They've used their biggest guns, the powder is burnt. They must surely expect some major poll movement in the next ten days, in their favour.
If it doesn't happen, they are in the deepest shit.
Possibly a small swing to Remain next week I think.
People trust Carney, for some reason, plus the HMG leaflets have gone to Scotland, NI and Wales and everyone is now focussed on it because of the campaign. On the debit side, WWIII might have caused a reaction, plus the migration figures (albeit successfully news managed by Osborne) and Boris might be mobilising a few Leavers around the South.
Or number of don't knows might go up; don't know.
Actually, that's it: i just don't know.
I think you'd be very surprised at just how low a number of people know who he is and ever notice he has said anything.
The next batch of polls - over the coming week - will be absolutely crucial.
I cannot imagine REMAIN have much ammunition left. If MEEKS's ludicrous graphic has one use, it is to show exactly how many authority figures have now spoken - basically all of the ones that count, apart from the Queen, and God, and they are both eurosceptic.
So that's it, for REMAIN. They've used their biggest guns, the powder is burnt. They must surely expect some major poll movement in the next ten days, in their favour.
If it doesn't happen, they are in the deepest shit.
We haven't had "your pensions will be f*cked" canard yet.
I'd expect that either next week, or the week after.
All the attack lines will need to be in place prior to the debates kicking off in the first week of June.
Actually the claim that Northern Ireland will suffer particularly badly from Brexit is uncontentious, surely.
Yep, if we are going to be controlling immigration from the EU post-Brexit, full checks at the UK/Irish border will have to come into force. That should go down well.
Ireland isn't in Schengen
But it does have free movement for EU citizens, as does NI currently. That will not be the case post-Brexit.
actually it has complications on free movement on the island only Irish citizens would have the right of free movement across the border and vice versa.
Actually the claim that Northern Ireland will suffer particularly badly from Brexit is uncontentious, surely.
Yep, if we are going to be controlling immigration from the EU post-Brexit, full checks at the UK/Irish border will have to come into force. That should go down well.
Ireland isn't in Schengen
But it does have free movement for EU citizens, as does NI currently. That will not be the case post-Brexit.
That actually doesn't matter, there would still be need for physical border checks in Ireland unless they decided to join Schengen.
Different checks, though. We will be seeking to prevent people coming into the UK to look for work. Anyone from the EU can enter Ireland to look for work. Currently, if they then head up to NI it doesn't matter. Post-Brexit it will.
The next batch of polls - over the coming week - will be absolutely crucial.
I cannot imagine REMAIN have much ammunition left. If MEEKS's ludicrous graphic has one use, it is to show exactly how many authority figures have now spoken - basically all of the ones that count, apart from the Queen, and God, and they are both eurosceptic.
So that's it, for REMAIN. They've used their biggest guns, the powder is burnt. They must surely expect some major poll movement in the next ten days, in their favour.
If it doesn't happen, they are in the deepest shit.
We haven't had "your pensions will be f*cked" canard yet.
I'd expect that either next week, or the week after.
All the attack lines will need to be in place prior to the debates kicking off in the first week of June.
We haven't had "your pensions will be f*cked" canard yet.
LOL can you think oif two people who have fucked your pension more than Brown and Osborne ? Who no doubt will be wheeled out to issue the warning.
So what's Remain's rabbit to be pulled if the polling goes the wrong way? We had one 'rogue' Scottish poll remember and the collective establishment had a cow - leading to Gordon F Brown making a Vow and all sorts of bullshit to keep the cosy establishment status quo unruffled by the plebs landing a blow.
Go Plebs! I think Dave is trying to come over all tough, but as and when his political dreams get squished by some uppity peasants he'll go crying back to his mummy. He's a modern Coriolanus.
Actually the claim that Northern Ireland will suffer particularly badly from Brexit is uncontentious, surely.
Yep, if we are going to be controlling immigration from the EU post-Brexit, full checks at the UK/Irish border will have to come into force. That should go down well.
Ireland isn't in Schengen
But it does have free movement for EU citizens, as does NI currently. That will not be the case post-Brexit.
actually it has complications on free movement on the island only Irish citizens would have the right of free movement across the border and vice versa.
Just an aside from ridiculing the ever more ridiculous Meeks, does anybody think that we shouldn't be able to manage and control who enters the country?
You see there's a danger that we're losing sight of what being a country and a sovereign state means. I want us to decide who comes here, anybody disagree?
Actually the claim that Northern Ireland will suffer particularly badly from Brexit is uncontentious, surely.
Yep, if we are going to be controlling immigration from the EU post-Brexit, full checks at the UK/Irish border will have to come into force. That should go down well.
Ireland isn't in Schengen
But it does have free movement for EU citizens, as does NI currently. That will not be the case post-Brexit.
That actually doesn't matter, there would still be need for physical border checks in Ireland unless they decided to join Schengen.
Different checks, though. We will be seeking to prevent people coming into the UK to look for work. Anyone from the EU can enter Ireland to look for work. Currently, if they then head up to NI it doesn't matter. Post-Brexit it will.
Even if so, the economic impact of such things is minimal.
Mr. Royale, it is quite amusing, having read a little of European history, to observe the shrieking and portents of doom from some if we leave the EU.
It's not the collapse of the Western Roman Empire. There won't be centuries of dark ages across Western Europe.
We're discussing exiting a trading and political bloc, not the destruction of civilisation as know it...
I know.
Sometimes I wonder if Vote Leave should just come really clean and say, OK folks: by 2030 we think we'll be better off as we'll have negotiated X trade deals (14 years being plenty) plus we'd recommend the UK develops science and industry in a, b, and c and have full border control and full law control by 2020.
BUT you have to choose: are you prepared to have the pound 10% lower for a couple of years, slightly flatter growth whilst we sort this out, and perhaps a little bit more inflation?
The alternative, as you know, is more of the same on laws, migration and regulation from the EU plus more integration in capital markets, energy Union and a highly dominant eurozone consistently outvoting us.
We pledge that by 2020 the new arrangements will be clear and stable, and businesses able to plan and invest as normal.
Actually the claim that Northern Ireland will suffer particularly badly from Brexit is uncontentious, surely.
Yep, if we are going to be controlling immigration from the EU post-Brexit, full checks at the UK/Irish border will have to come into force. That should go down well.
Ireland isn't in Schengen
But it does have free movement for EU citizens, as does NI currently. That will not be the case post-Brexit.
actually it has complications on free movement on the island only Irish citizens would have the right of free movement across the border and vice versa.
As someone who can remember the days of Irish border crossings it really wasn't that much of a hassle.
People smuggling could emerge as a very handy new line of work in South Armagh and Dundalk.
yeah could, might, maybe.
you seem to think the Irish government wants to let loads of people on to the island. It doesn't equally it might be just as happy not to have so many Nordies clogging up the place.
Most of us Nordies will simply avail of the two passport option being a UK and Irish citizen simultaneously.
It's total war from Cameron and his associates. It will probably succeed because this is their referendum to lose and every time they raise the stakes it becomes less likely for the undecideds to go for Leave on a punt. But it will make for a very toxic aftermath.
Despite all that, I think Leave would likely have won the referendum, rather it being merely possible at the moment, if it had made better tactical decisions. In particular it should have rejected the "EU bad" line and stuck relentlessly to a "We wish the EU well. We look forward to working with our EU partners to get the best deal for Britain. No-one works better for Britain than the British do" message and basically bore the opposition into submission.
Mr. Royale, it is quite amusing, having read a little of European history, to observe the shrieking and portents of doom from some if we leave the EU.
It's not the collapse of the Western Roman Empire. There won't be centuries of dark ages across Western Europe.
We're discussing exiting a trading and political bloc, not the destruction of civilisation as know it...
I know.
Sometimes I wonder if Vote Leave should just come really clean and say, OK folks: by 2030 we think we'll be better off as we'll have negotiated X trade deals (14 years being plenty) plus we'd recommend the UK develops science and industry in a, b, and c and have full border control and full law control by 2020.
BUT you have to choose: are you prepared to have the pound 10% lower for a couple of years, slightly flatter growth whilst we sort this out, and perhaps a little bit more inflation?
The alternative, as you know, is more of the same on laws, migration and regulation from the EU plus more integration in capital markets, energy Union and a highly dominant eurozone consistently outvoting us.
We pledge that by 2020 the new arrangements will be clear and stable, and businesses able to plan and invest as normal.
Over to you: we will fully respect your choice.
Well I think the problem is that this argument may only appeal to a select few, a lot of us on here might find it attractive, but I don't see how well it does in the wider country.
The next batch of polls - over the coming week - will be absolutely crucial.
I cannot imagine REMAIN have much ammunition left. If MEEKS's ludicrous graphic has one use, it is to show exactly how many authority figures have now spoken - basically all of the ones that count, apart from the Queen, and God, and they are both eurosceptic.
So that's it, for REMAIN. They've used their biggest guns, the powder is burnt. They must surely expect some major poll movement in the next ten days, in their favour.
If it doesn't happen, they are in the deepest shit.
We haven't had "your pensions will be f*cked" canard yet.
I'd expect that either next week, or the week after.
All the attack lines will need to be in place prior to the debates kicking off in the first week of June.
We haven't had "your pensions will be f*cked" canard yet.
LOL can you think oif two people who have fucked your pension more than Brown and Osborne ? Who no doubt will be wheeled out to issue the warning.
Quite! A good rebuttal for Vote Leave.
Plus, Vote Leave should pledge that vote for Leave is a mandate to HMG protect the triple lock throughout the transition, if they have any sense.
Surely the principal response of Leave to the above claims, in evidence on this very thread, is to exaggerate the claims themselves and thereby make them absurd. Eg, "the IMF says the sky will fall in." This then tees up a comment like, "We've survived world wars, Brexit will be no problem."
This might be quite effective. I'm not sure. If you are already genuinely concerned by the potential negative effects of Brexit (as I am, fwiw) then it's irritating to have someone laugh at the idea. Not sure that describes a majority of people though. So this tactic may be working quite well.
I recall that even before the campaign had really started Dan Hannan was tweeting pictures of dinosaurs in the Thames captioned "this is what will happen..."
By the way, there must be a name for the rhetorical device of making your opponent's argument seem ridiculous by exaggerating it isn't there? But what is it? (I don't think it's hyperbole as that (iirc) is properly speaking exaggeration for emphasis whereas this is exaggeration for ridicule.)
Actually the claim that Northern Ireland will suffer particularly badly from Brexit is uncontentious, surely.
Yep, if we are going to be controlling immigration from the EU post-Brexit, full checks at the UK/Irish border will have to come into force. That should go down well.
Ireland isn't in Schengen
But it does have free movement for EU citizens, as does NI currently. That will not be the case post-Brexit.
actually it has complications on free movement on the island only Irish citizens would have the right of free movement across the border and vice versa.
As someone who can remember the days of Irish border crossings it really wasn't that much of a hassle.
People smuggling could emerge as a very handy new line of work in South Armagh and Dundalk.
yeah could, might, maybe.
you seem to think the Irish government wants to let loads of people on to the island. It doesn't equally it might be just as happy not to have so many Nordies clogging up the place.
Most of us Nordies will simply avail of the two passport option being a UK and Irish citizen simultaneously.
The Irish government has no choice, hasn't it? We are told that the UK cannot control its borders currently, so surely the same applies to Ireland.
Surely the principal response of Leave to the above claims, in evidence on this very thread, is to exaggerate the claims themselves and thereby make them absurd. Eg, "the IMF says the sky will fall in." This then tees up a comment like, "We've survived world wars, Brexit will be no problem."
This might be quite effective. I'm not sure. If you are already genuinely concerned by the potential negative effects of Brexit (as I am, fwiw) then it's irritating to have someone laugh at the idea. Not sure that describes a majority of people though. So this tactic may be working quite well.
I recall that even before the campaign had really started Dan Hannan was tweeting pictures of dinosaurs in the Thames captioned "this is what will happen..."
By the way, there must be a name for the rhetorical device of making your opponent's argument seem ridiculous by exaggerating it isn't there? But what is it? (I don't think it's hyperbole as that (iirc) is properly speaking exaggeration for emphasis whereas this is exaggeration for ridicule.)
LEAVE doesn't really need to make these arguments look ridiculous by exaggerating them, because they are already so exaggerated. Can you really caricature a caricature?
The PM's 'WAR' speech being the most obvious example...
O/T - thanks to those who offered advice on the tech problem yesterday. After half a day faffing around, I found a website which has already cracked the problem [I know not how, nor care!], and I am using that for the feed for the latest BF implied chances, which now appear in my USA 2016 sheet...
Mr. Royale, it is quite amusing, having read a little of European history, to observe the shrieking and portents of doom from some if we leave the EU.
It's not the collapse of the Western Roman Empire. There won't be centuries of dark ages across Western Europe.
We're discussing exiting a trading and political bloc, not the destruction of civilisation as know it...
It's not quite the same, is it Mr D. The Western Empire was collapsing and retreated, leaving the Britons to the Scots. In this case the British are retreating from something that isn't collapsing..... going through a rough patch admittedly. It's UK that'll be in the Dark Ages, not Europe.
It does seem to be a problem for the Remain campaign that they are entirely basing their campaign around the sentiment of "important people believe we should stay in, so you should too". I do have worries about what will happen to house prices and the economy if we leave, but I would like to hear the detailed reasons and arguments of how these things would be negatively affected. I am capable of thinking for myself, and I'm now beginning to tune out the relentless campaign of dire warnings, especially when many are so extreme and unbelievable.
Actually the claim that Northern Ireland will suffer particularly badly from Brexit is uncontentious, surely.
Yep, if we are going to be controlling immigration from the EU post-Brexit, full checks at the UK/Irish border will have to come into force. That should go down well.
Ireland isn't in Schengen
But it does have free movement for EU citizens, as does NI currently. That will not be the case post-Brexit.
actually it has complications on free movement on the island only Irish citizens would have the right of free movement across the border and vice versa.
As someone who can remember the days of Irish border crossings it really wasn't that much of a hassle.
People smuggling could emerge as a very handy new line of work in South Armagh and Dundalk.
yeah could, might, maybe.
you seem to think the Irish government wants to let loads of people on to the island. It doesn't equally it might be just as happy not to have so many Nordies clogging up the place.
Most of us Nordies will simply avail of the two passport option being a UK and Irish citizen simultaneously.
The Irish government has no choice, hasn't it? We are told that the UK cannot control its borders currently, so surely the same applies to Ireland.
rules of admission are the same but the benefits system is different. Unless you've got a job nobody's going to pay for you to stay so you'd better be sure of your facts before you arrive.
Mr. Royale, it is quite amusing, having read a little of European history, to observe the shrieking and portents of doom from some if we leave the EU.
It's not the collapse of the Western Roman Empire. There won't be centuries of dark ages across Western Europe.
We're discussing exiting a trading and political bloc, not the destruction of civilisation as know it...
I know.
Sometimes I wonder if Vote Leave should just come really clean and say, OK folks: by 2030 we think we'll be better off as we'll have negotiated X trade deals (14 years being plenty) plus we'd recommend the UK develops science and industry in a, b, and c and have full border control and full law control by 2020.
BUT you have to choose: are you prepared to have the pound 10% lower for a couple of years, slightly flatter growth whilst we sort this out, and perhaps a little bit more inflation?
The alternative, as you know, is more of the same on laws, migration and regulation from the EU plus more integration in capital markets, energy Union and a highly dominant eurozone consistently outvoting us.
We pledge that by 2020 the new arrangements will be clear and stable, and businesses able to plan and invest as normal.
Over to you: we will fully respect your choice.
Well I think the problem is that this argument may only appeal to a select few, a lot of us on here might find it attractive, but I don't see how well it does in the wider country.
Then we lose.
Sometimes, I'm not sure I can be arsed. That's basically the choice. Sure, I feel very strongly about it and think Leave is a great deal but, if people don't like it, and don't want to vote for it, then we'll all have our answer, won't we?
The Leave.EU campaign seems to be completely clueless. I remember when they said the lost amount per household was a "bargain". It is almost like they are trying to lose.
Mr. Royale, it is quite amusing, having read a little of European history, to observe the shrieking and portents of doom from some if we leave the EU.
It's not the collapse of the Western Roman Empire. There won't be centuries of dark ages across Western Europe.
We're discussing exiting a trading and political bloc, not the destruction of civilisation as know it...
I know.
Sometimes I wonder if Vote Leave should just come really clean and say, OK folks: by 2030 we think we'll be better off as we'll have negotiated X trade deals (14 years being plenty) plus we'd recommend the UK develops science and industry in a, b, and c and have full border control and full law control by 2020.
BUT you have to choose: are you prepared to have the pound 10% lower for a couple of years, slightly flatter growth whilst we sort this out, and perhaps a little bit more inflation?
The alternative, as you know, is more of the same on laws, migration and regulation from the EU plus more integration in capital markets, energy Union and a highly dominant eurozone consistently outvoting us.
We pledge that by 2020 the new arrangements will be clear and stable, and businesses able to plan and invest as normal.
Over to you: we will fully respect your choice.
Why do you think us voting to leave would have such a dramatic impact? I agree with Mervyn King that it makes no difference economically whether we leave or stay, it is really a political question about how we wish to move forward as a country and what our relationship should be with the rest of Europe.
The real risks are the failure of the Euro and the migration crisis.
The next batch of polls - over the coming week - will be absolutely crucial.
I cannot imagine REMAIN have much ammunition left. If MEEKS's ludicrous graphic has one use, it is to show exactly how many authority figures have now spoken - basically all of the ones that count, apart from the Queen, and God, and they are both eurosceptic.
So that's it, for REMAIN. They've used their biggest guns, the powder is burnt. They must surely expect some major poll movement in the next ten days, in their favour.
If it doesn't happen, they are in the deepest shit.
We haven't had "your pensions will be f*cked" canard yet.
I'd expect that either next week, or the week after.
All the attack lines will need to be in place prior to the debates kicking off in the first week of June.
We haven't had "your pensions will be f*cked" canard yet.
LOL can you think oif two people who have fucked your pension more than Brown and Osborne ? Who no doubt will be wheeled out to issue the warning.
Google "holistic balance sheet". EU bad for UK pensions.
Mr. Royale, it is quite amusing, having read a little of European history, to observe the shrieking and portents of doom from some if we leave the EU.
It's not the collapse of the Western Roman Empire. There won't be centuries of dark ages across Western Europe.
We're discussing exiting a trading and political bloc, not the destruction of civilisation as know it...
I know.
Sometimes I wonder if Vote Leave should just come really clean and say, OK folks: by 2030 we think we'll be better off as we'll have negotiated X trade deals (14 years being plenty) plus we'd recommend the UK develops science and industry in a, b, and c and have full border control and full law control by 2020.
BUT you have to choose: are you prepared to have the pound 10% lower for a couple of years, slightly flatter growth whilst we sort this out, and perhaps a little bit more inflation?
The alternative, as you know, is more of the same on laws, migration and regulation from the EU plus more integration in capital markets, energy Union and a highly dominant eurozone consistently outvoting us.
We pledge that by 2020 the new arrangements will be clear and stable, and businesses able to plan and invest as normal.
Over to you: we will fully respect your choice.
Well I think the problem is that this argument may only appeal to a select few, a lot of us on here might find it attractive, but I don't see how well it does in the wider country.
Then we lose.
Sometimes, I'm not sure I can be arsed. That's basically the choice. Sure, I feel very strongly about it and think Leave is a great deal but, if people don't like it, and don't want to vote for it, then we'll all have our answer, won't we?
It will be eyes wide-open.
The problem is that it is no good to be a good loser, you've still lost. If Leave fought that fight then we would lose 70-30 and the issue would be settled for the next 15 years until the EU starts banging the army/superstate drum. If Remain are going to fight dirty, which they are doing, then Leave has no choice but to do the same. I don't much like it either, but sometimes getting in the mud is the only choice.
Surely the principal response of Leave to the above claims, in evidence on this very thread, is to exaggerate the claims themselves and thereby make them absurd. Eg, "the IMF says the sky will fall in." This then tees up a comment like, "We've survived world wars, Brexit will be no problem."
This might be quite effective. I'm not sure. If you are already genuinely concerned by the potential negative effects of Brexit (as I am, fwiw) then it's irritating to have someone laugh at the idea. Not sure that describes a majority of people though. So this tactic may be working quite well.
I recall that even before the campaign had really started Dan Hannan was tweeting pictures of dinosaurs in the Thames captioned "this is what will happen..."
By the way, there must be a name for the rhetorical device of making your opponent's argument seem ridiculous by exaggerating it isn't there? But what is it? (I don't think it's hyperbole as that (iirc) is properly speaking exaggeration for emphasis whereas this is exaggeration for ridicule.)
LEAVE doesn't really need to make these arguments look ridiculous by exaggerating them, because they are already so exaggerated. Can you really caricature a caricature?
The PM's 'WAR' speech being the most obvious example...
That's an example of what I mean. Cameron said that there would be risks to security and stability. This is relayed as "Cameron says Brexit means World War III (lol)."
Mr. Nabavi, it's not odd that one side argues against another in a referendum campaign. The alternative is accepting what the other side says or, at least, letting it go unchallenged.
It's hard to know which is the more ludicrous at the moment: the scare stories coming out of Remain, or the conspiracy theories coming out of Leave.
Would that either side engaged with the merits of the case, never mind both.
Mr. Nabavi, it's not odd that one side argues against another in a referendum campaign. The alternative is accepting what the other side says or, at least, letting it go unchallenged.
It's hard to know which is the more ludicrous at the moment: the scare stories coming out of Remain, or the conspiracy theories coming out of Leave.
Would that either side engaged with the merits of the case, never mind both.
Is there anything (ever) of any sort that could ever convince you for Leave, David?
Surely the principal response of Leave to the above claims, in evidence on this very thread, is to exaggerate the claims themselves and thereby make them absurd. Eg, "the IMF says the sky will fall in." This then tees up a comment like, "We've survived world wars, Brexit will be no problem."
This might be quite effective. I'm not sure. If you are already genuinely concerned by the potential negative effects of Brexit (as I am, fwiw) then it's irritating to have someone laugh at the idea. Not sure that describes a majority of people though. So this tactic may be working quite well.
I recall that even before the campaign had really started Dan Hannan was tweeting pictures of dinosaurs in the Thames captioned "this is what will happen..."
By the way, there must be a name for the rhetorical device of making your opponent's argument seem ridiculous by exaggerating it isn't there? But what is it? (I don't think it's hyperbole as that (iirc) is properly speaking exaggeration for emphasis whereas this is exaggeration for ridicule.)
LEAVE doesn't really need to make these arguments look ridiculous by exaggerating them, because they are already so exaggerated. Can you really caricature a caricature?
The PM's 'WAR' speech being the most obvious example...
That's an example of what I mean. Cameron said that there would be risks to security and stability. This is relayed as "Cameron says Brexit means World War III (lol)."
Yep, I refer to this down-thread. It's straight out of the SNP playbook. It's incredibly effective and very hard to counter. If you only need to win once and you are not that concerned about the practical consequences of a victory because you believe the cause in and of itself is so important then it is definitely a strategy to follow.
Mr. Royale, it is quite amusing, having read a little of European history, to observe the shrieking and portents of doom from some if we leave the EU.
It's not the collapse of the Western Roman Empire. There won't be centuries of dark ages across Western Europe.
We're discussing exiting a trading and political bloc, not the destruction of civilisation as know it...
I know.
Sometimes I wonder if Vote Leave should just come really clean and say, OK folks: by 2030 we think we'll be better off as we'll have negotiated X trade deals (14 years being plenty) plus we'd recommend the UK develops science and industry in a, b, and c and have full border control and full law control by 2020.
BUT you have to choose: are you prepared to have the pound 10% lower for a couple of years, slightly flatter growth whilst we sort this out, and perhaps a little bit more inflation?
The alternative, as you know, is more of the same on laws, migration and regulation from the EU plus more integration in capital markets, energy Union and a highly dominant eurozone consistently outvoting us.
We pledge that by 2020 the new arrangements will be clear and stable, and businesses able to plan and invest as normal.
Over to you: we will fully respect your choice.
Well I think the problem is that this argument may only appeal to a select few, a lot of us on here might find it attractive, but I don't see how well it does in the wider country.
Then we lose.
Sometimes, I'm not sure I can be arsed. That's basically the choice. Sure, I feel very strongly about it and think Leave is a great deal but, if people don't like it, and don't want to vote for it, then we'll all have our answer, won't we?
It will be eyes wide-open.
The problem is that it is no good to be a good loser, you've still lost. If Leave fought that fight then we would lose 70-30 and the issue would be settled for the next 15 years until the EU starts banging the army/superstate drum. If Remain are going to fight dirty, which they are doing, then Leave has no choice but to do the same. I don't much like it either, but sometimes getting in the mud is the only choice.
I think Leave can rightly point to contingency plans and reassure the transition (for what it's worth I don't think it'd be that bad, and we'd still grow throughout) but I still think Leave could get 45% on that basis.
Mr. Royale, it is quite amusing, having read a little of European history, to observe the shrieking and portents of doom from some if we leave the EU.
It's not the collapse of the Western Roman Empire. There won't be centuries of dark ages across Western Europe.
We're discussing exiting a trading and political bloc, not the destruction of civilisation as know it...
It's not quite the same, is it Mr D. The Western Empire was collapsing and retreated, leaving the Britons to the Scots. In this case the British are retreating from something that isn't collapsing..... going through a rough patch admittedly. It's UK that'll be in the Dark Ages, not Europe.
Mr. Royale, it is quite amusing, having read a little of European history, to observe the shrieking and portents of doom from some if we leave the EU.
It's not the collapse of the Western Roman Empire. There won't be centuries of dark ages across Western Europe.
We're discussing exiting a trading and political bloc, not the destruction of civilisation as know it...
I know.
Sometimes I wonder if Vote Leave should just come really clean and say, OK folks: by 2030 we think we'll be better off as we'll have negotiated X trade deals (14 years being plenty) plus we'd recommend the UK develops science and industry in a, b, and c and have full border control and full law control by 2020.
BUT you have to choose: are you prepared to have the pound 10% lower for a couple of years, slightly flatter growth whilst we sort this out, and perhaps a little bit more inflation?
The alternative, as you know, is more of the same on laws, migration and regulation from the EU plus more integration in capital markets, energy Union and a highly dominant eurozone consistently outvoting us.
We pledge that by 2020 the new arrangements will be clear and stable, and businesses able to plan and invest as normal.
Over to you: we will fully respect your choice.
Why do you think us voting to leave would have such a dramatic impact? I agree with Mervyn King that it makes no difference economically whether we leave or stay, it is really a political question about how we wish to move forward as a country and what our relationship should be with the rest of Europe.
The real risks are the failure of the Euro and the migration crisis.
I don't. I expect a reassuring UK statement over the weekend. I expect a joint statement of intent with Merkel inside another 2 weeks. A full plan to be published within a month and a roadmap agreed by the EU by the end of the year.
This could either be associate membership aka EEA lite or article 50 into EFTA or our own free trade deal.
A small contraction in Q3 and Q4, flatter growth next year and a bit more growth in 2018.
Everything back to normal by the start of 2019/2020 as the new deal kicks in, then a GE.
Mr. Royale, it is quite amusing, having read a little of European history, to observe the shrieking and portents of doom from some if we leave the EU.
It's not the collapse of the Western Roman Empire. There won't be centuries of dark ages across Western Europe.
We're discussing exiting a trading and political bloc, not the destruction of civilisation as know it...
I know.
Sometimes I wonder if Vote Leave should just come really clean and say, OK folks: by 2030 we think we'll be better off as we'll have negotiated X trade deals (14 years being plenty) plus we'd recommend the UK develops science and industry in a, b, and c and have full border control and full law control by 2020.
BUT you have to choose: are you prepared to have the pound 10% lower for a couple of years, slightly flatter growth whilst we sort this out, and perhaps a little bit more inflation?
The alternative, as you know, is more of the same on laws, migration and regulation from the EU plus more integration in capital markets, energy Union and a highly dominant eurozone consistently outvoting us.
We pledge that by 2020 the new arrangements will be clear and stable, and businesses able to plan and invest as normal.
Over to you: we will fully respect your choice.
Well I think the problem is that this argument may only appeal to a select few, a lot of us on here might find it attractive, but I don't see how well it does in the wider country.
Then we lose.
Sometimes, I'm not sure I can be arsed. That's basically the choice. Sure, I feel very strongly about it and think Leave is a great deal but, if people don't like it, and don't want to vote for it, then we'll all have our answer, won't we?
It will be eyes wide-open.
The problem is that it is no good to be a good loser, you've still lost. If Leave fought that fight then we would lose 70-30 and the issue would be settled for the next 15 years until the EU starts banging the army/superstate drum. If Remain are going to fight dirty, which they are doing, then Leave has no choice but to do the same. I don't much like it either, but sometimes getting in the mud is the only choice.
I think Leave can rightly point to contingency plans and reassure the transition (for what it's worth I don't think it'd be that bad, and we'd still grow throughout) but I still think Leave could get 45% on that basis.
Never 70/30.
I think "fighting a good/fair fight" vs a dirty campaign from Remain would result in a remain landslide.
Mr. Royale, it is quite amusing, having read a little of European history, to observe the shrieking and portents of doom from some if we leave the EU.
It's not the collapse of the Western Roman Empire. There won't be centuries of dark ages across Western Europe.
We're discussing exiting a trading and political bloc, not the destruction of civilisation as know it...
I know.
Sometimes I wonder if Vote Leave should just come really clean and say, OK folks: by 2030 we think we'll be better off as we'll have negotiated X trade deals (14 years being plenty) plus we'd recommend the UK develops science and industry in a, b, and c and have full border control and full law control by 2020.
BUT you have to choose: are you prepared to have the pound 10% lower for a couple of years, slightly flatter growth whilst we sort this out, and perhaps a little bit more inflation?
The alternative, as you know, is more of the same on laws, migration and regulation from the EU plus more integration in capital markets, energy Union and a highly dominant eurozone consistently outvoting us.
We pledge that by 2020 the new arrangements will be clear and stable, and businesses able to plan and invest as normal.
Over to you: we will fully respect your choice.
Well I think the problem is that this argument may only appeal to a select few, a lot of us on here might find it attractive, but I don't see how well it does in the wider country.
Then we lose.
Sometimes, I'm not sure I can be arsed. That's basically the choice. Sure, I feel very strongly about it and think Leave is a great deal but, if people don't like it, and don't want to vote for it, then we'll all have our answer, won't we?
It will be eyes wide-open.
The problem is that it is no good to be a good loser, you've still lost. If Leave fought that fight then we would lose 70-30 and the issue would be settled for the next 15 years until the EU starts banging the army/superstate drum. If Remain are going to fight dirty, which they are doing, then Leave has no choice but to do the same. I don't much like it either, but sometimes getting in the mud is the only choice.
I think Leave can rightly point to contingency plans and reassure the transition (for what it's worth I don't think it'd be that bad, and we'd still grow throughout) but I still think Leave could get 45% on that basis.
Never 70/30.
I think "fighting a good/fair fight" vs a dirty campaign from Remain would result in a remain landslide.
Mr. Royale, it is quite amusing, having read a little of European history, to observe the shrieking and portents of doom from some if we leave the EU.
It's not the collapse of the Western Roman Empire. There won't be centuries of dark ages across Western Europe.
We're discussing exiting a trading and political bloc, not the destruction of civilisation as know it...
I know.
Sometimes I wonder if Vote Leave should just come really clean and say, OK folks: by 2030 we think we'll be better off as we'll have negotiated X trade deals (14 years being plenty) plus we'd recommend the UK develops science and industry in a, b, and c and have full border control and full law control by 2020.
BUT you have to choose: are you prepared to have the pound 10% lower for a couple of years, slightly flatter growth whilst we sort this out, and perhaps a little bit more inflation?
The alternative, as you know, is more of the same on laws, migration and regulation from the EU plus more integration in capital markets, energy Union and a highly dominant eurozone consistently outvoting us.
We pledge that by 2020 the new arrangements will be clear and stable, and businesses able to plan and invest as normal.
Over to you: we will fully respect your choice.
Why do you think us voting to leave would have such a dramatic impact? I agree with Mervyn King that it makes no difference economically whether we leave or stay, it is really a political question about how we wish to move forward as a country and what our relationship should be with the rest of Europe.
The real risks are the failure of the Euro and the migration crisis.
I don't. I expect a reassuring UK statement over the weekend. I expect a joint statement of intent with Merkel inside another 2 weeks. A full plan to be published within a month and a roadmap agreed by the EU by the end of the year.
This could either be associate membership aka EEA lite or article 50 into EFTA or our own free trade deal.
A small contraction in Q3 and Q4, flatter growth next year and a bit more growth in 2018.
Everything back to normal by the start of 2019/2020 as the new deal kicks in, then a GE.
As was in the report, I think it would have to go to a vote, there is no way the government could plough ahead with a FTA that maintained the four freedoms as they are without getting the affirmative from the public. I think they would win as there are enough Tories in the middle ground that aren't too bothered by immigration but want out anyway who would switch. I probably would.
Mr. Royale, it is quite amusing, having read a little of European history, to observe the shrieking and portents of doom from some if we leave the EU.
It's not the collapse of the Western Roman Empire. There won't be centuries of dark ages across Western Europe.
We're discussing exiting a trading and political bloc, not the destruction of civilisation as know it...
I know.
Sometimes I wonder if Vote Leave should just come really clean and say, OK folks: by 2030 we think we'll be better off as we'll have negotiated X trade deals (14 years being plenty) plus we'd recommend the UK develops science and industry in a, b, and c and have full border control and full law control by 2020.
BUT you have to choose: are you prepared to have the pound 10% lower for a couple of years, slightly flatter growth whilst we sort this out, and perhaps a little bit more inflation?
The alternative, as you know, is more of the same on laws, migration and regulation from the EU plus more integration in capital markets, energy Union and a highly dominant eurozone consistently outvoting us.
We pledge that by 2020 the new arrangements will be clear and stable, and businesses able to plan and invest as normal.
Over to you: we will fully respect your choice.
Why do you think us voting to leave would have such a dramatic impact? I agree with Mervyn King that it makes no difference economically whether we leave or stay, it is really a political question about how we wish to move forward as a country and what our relationship should be with the rest of Europe.
The real risks are the failure of the Euro and the migration crisis.
I don't. I expect a reassuring UK statement over the weekend. I expect a joint statement of intent with Merkel inside another 2 weeks. A full plan to be published within a month and a roadmap agreed by the EU by the end of the year.
This could either be associate membership aka EEA lite or article 50 into EFTA or our own free trade deal.
A small contraction in Q3 and Q4, flatter growth next year and a bit more growth in 2018.
Everything back to normal by the start of 2019/2020 as the new deal kicks in, then a GE.
As was in the report, I think it would have to go to a vote, there is no way the government could plough ahead with a FTA that maintained the four freedoms as they are without getting the affirmative from the public. I think they would win as there are enough Tories in the middle ground that aren't too bothered by immigration but want out anyway who would switch. I probably would.
I don't think there will be a second vote unless it's impossible to pass it through the Commons.
I got somewhat shouted atr for saying that this morning, although later someone agreed with me. My 20 something grandson and his girlfriend would unquestionably welcome a fall in house prices; even as teachers it’s not easy. Whether someone in the position I was 35 years ago, when prices went into a downward spiral, with a business in trouble and little remaining equity in my house would be as keen I doubt.
I got somewhat shouted atr for saying that this morning, although later someone agreed with me. My 20 something grandson and his girlfriend would unquestionably welcome a fall in house prices; even as teachers it’s not easy. Whether someone in the position I was 35 years ago, when prices went into a downward spiral, with a business in trouble and little remaining equity in my house would be as keen I doubt.
Yes, it wouldn't benefit everybody but if prices dropped so would rents.
The Leave campaign is pretty awful. Their only good moments come from the nonsense Remain seem to wish to try to have us believe.
I quite like Lagarde, and Carney seems a decent enough chap. However they really should be balancing what they're saying with what Brexit might be good for. First of all the EU is hardly a rosy place - bad stuff in the EU won't happen to us if we're not in it. Secondly, after a period of transition, an independent UK may find itself in a good economic position - near, and with close links to the EU, and the US. We get none of this as far as I can tell. (That may be the press failing to report the balancing arguments)
I'm still undecided as to how I'm going to vote. If these wise men and women were a little more straightforward and honest in presenting the risks and benefits then they'd have a great deal more chance of persuading me that the core of their arguments are right. As it is I think that they're making a political case primarily dressed up in Economists clothing.
The Leave.EU campaign seems to be completely clueless.
It is quite extraordinary.
The Remain campaign predicts economic chaos.
The Leave campaign replies "You're right, but..."
It's an Ed Miliband moment.
At one stage a few years ago I might have voted for Brexit. I have changed my mind as the potential economic dislocation and complete absence of a viable alternative economic strategy in relation to trade has firmly made me inclined to vote for Remain. The Leave campaign do not seem to understand that the EU is a developed market and the demand for the services of the city of London for instance are unlikely to be replicated by new markets in underdeveloped economies. The services of the city of London are dependent on economies having reached the stage of complexity, where they need derivative trading, future markets and the like. I don’t think the Leave campaign is in the remote sense credible.
I also wonder if we voted to exit the EU if other countries population would look for substitute products and services from anywhere but UK. My thinking on this is derived from the Scottish vote in 2014 as had the referendum gone the other way I would be disinclined to buy products from Scotland, something that I know other English people would have embraced.
Immigration is another point, I was opposed to much of the Immigration that occurred post 1997. This is now irreversible and the establishment IMO have embraced a strategy of whoever is in power of increasing migration to enhance the size of the economy to ensure that the UK remains a significant global player. If the UK exits the EU does anyone really think the eastern Europeans will all return to their country of origin and what happens to the businesses that are reliant on the immigrants for their Labour? This would be part of the unacceptable shock to the economy through uncertainty as the Immigrants would save money rather than spending it if they thought they were going to be removed from the UK. So I think on balance Remain has to be the only game in town as the loss of sovereignty has already occurred and we are all surviving despite this.
@Casino_Royale - you mentioned this the other day. Found it elsewhere but no linky
Between 2004 and 2015, the Today program included 4,275 speakers on EU related issues. Just 132 of these represented views sympathetic to Britain's withdrawal from the EU. Furthermore, of these 132 in favour of Brexit, 72% of the speakers were representatives of UKIP, 32% of all Brexit contributions being from a single speaker, namely Nigel Farage. In a recent Newsnight program devoted to the EU topic, 18 speakers were in favour of remaining; 1 speaker was opposed.
Comments
We're going to get authority figure after authority figure speaking out all the way until 23 June.
I've said it before, but the media's as much to blame, perhaps more so, than the politicians for the way things are done generally, as well as specifically for this referendum.
It's not the collapse of the Western Roman Empire. There won't be centuries of dark ages across Western Europe.
We're discussing exiting a trading and political bloc, not the destruction of civilisation as know it...
People trust Carney, for some reason, plus the HMG leaflets have gone to Scotland, NI and Wales and everyone is now focussed on it because of the campaign. On the debit side, WWIII might have caused a reaction, plus the migration figures (albeit successfully news managed by Osborne) and Boris might be mobilising a few Leavers around the South.
Or number of don't knows might go up; don't know.
Actually, that's it: i just don't know.
Actually if you did a 'Treasury Style' economic analysis, you would probably 'find' big economic benefits for the Republic from doing so.
How convincing do we think politicians south of the border would find that?
Would they rapidly be recommending a joyous reunion with the UK, do you think?
I'd expect that either next week, or the week after.
All the attack lines will need to be in place prior to the debates kicking off in the first week of June.
http://www.independent.ie/irish-news/courts/chinese-student-to-be-deported-because-of-shopping-trip-to-belfast-29481115.html
As someone who can remember the days of Irish border crossings it really wasn't that much of a hassle.
Sanders will head out to 70+ when he loses Kentucky and Oregon... his price is defying gravity right now.
This is a Trump/HRC movement !
LOL can you think oif two people who have fucked your pension more than Brown and Osborne ? Who no doubt will be wheeled out to issue the warning.
Go Plebs! I think Dave is trying to come over all tough, but as and when his political dreams get squished by some uppity peasants he'll go crying back to his mummy. He's a modern Coriolanus.
You see there's a danger that we're losing sight of what being a country and a sovereign state means. I want us to decide who comes here, anybody disagree?
Andrea Urban Fox
UK, 2016:
Punch and Judy banned for "trivialising domestic violence"
https://t.co/x2ovhl6Dgg …
Sometimes I wonder if Vote Leave should just come really clean and say, OK folks: by 2030 we think we'll be better off as we'll have negotiated X trade deals (14 years being plenty) plus we'd recommend the UK develops science and industry in a, b, and c and have full border control and full law control by 2020.
BUT you have to choose: are you prepared to have the pound 10% lower for a couple of years, slightly flatter growth whilst we sort this out, and perhaps a little bit more inflation?
The alternative, as you know, is more of the same on laws, migration and regulation from the EU plus more integration in capital markets, energy Union and a highly dominant eurozone consistently outvoting us.
We pledge that by 2020 the new arrangements will be clear and stable, and businesses able to plan and invest as normal.
Over to you: we will fully respect your choice.
Only one in five people think they will feel a negative personal impact from leaving the EU.
you seem to think the Irish government wants to let loads of people on to the island. It doesn't equally it might be just as happy not to have so many Nordies clogging up the place.
Most of us Nordies will simply avail of the two passport option being a UK and Irish citizen simultaneously.
Despite all that, I think Leave would likely have won the referendum, rather it being merely possible at the moment, if it had made better tactical decisions. In particular it should have rejected the "EU bad" line and stuck relentlessly to a "We wish the EU well. We look forward to working with our EU partners to get the best deal for Britain. No-one works better for Britain than the British do" message and basically bore the opposition into submission.
Plus, Vote Leave should pledge that vote for Leave is a mandate to HMG protect the triple lock throughout the transition, if they have any sense.
This might be quite effective. I'm not sure. If you are already genuinely concerned by the potential negative effects of Brexit (as I am, fwiw) then it's irritating to have someone laugh at the idea. Not sure that describes a majority of people though. So this tactic may be working quite well.
I recall that even before the campaign had really started Dan Hannan was tweeting pictures of dinosaurs in the Thames captioned "this is what will happen..."
By the way, there must be a name for the rhetorical device of making your opponent's argument seem ridiculous by exaggerating it isn't there? But what is it? (I don't think it's hyperbole as that (iirc) is properly speaking exaggeration for emphasis whereas this is exaggeration for ridicule.)
There was a young man of Kent,
who's tool was most horribly bent.
To save him the trouble
he put it in double,
instead of coming, he went.
Of course it doesn't work when your opponent's argument is beyond the scale of ridiculous to start with
The PM's 'WAR' speech being the most obvious example...
Sometimes, I'm not sure I can be arsed. That's basically the choice. Sure, I feel very strongly about it and think Leave is a great deal but, if people don't like it, and don't want to vote for it, then we'll all have our answer, won't we?
It will be eyes wide-open.
but the argument is crap.
The real risks are the failure of the Euro and the migration crisis.
Makes 80's UK hooliganism look a bit tame. The show a 40 min mega fight before the game could even start.
The Remain campaign predicts economic chaos.
The Leave campaign replies "You're right, but..."
It's an Ed Miliband moment.
Genuinely interested.
https://twitter.com/leaveeuofficial/status/731133748712984578
Never 70/30.
This could either be associate membership aka EEA lite or article 50 into EFTA or our own free trade deal.
A small contraction in Q3 and Q4, flatter growth next year and a bit more growth in 2018.
Everything back to normal by the start of 2019/2020 as the new deal kicks in, then a GE.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3588336/Shooting-northern-Iraqi-town-kills-12-police-hospital-sources.html
Also, Picts.
Also also, surely you meant Angles, Jutes and Saxons?
My 20 something grandson and his girlfriend would unquestionably welcome a fall in house prices; even as teachers it’s not easy. Whether someone in the position I was 35 years ago, when prices went into a downward spiral, with a business in trouble and little remaining equity in my house would be as keen I doubt.
Almost.
More people would be better off.
I quite like Lagarde, and Carney seems a decent enough chap. However they really should be balancing what they're saying with what Brexit might be good for. First of all the EU is hardly a rosy place - bad stuff in the EU won't happen to us if we're not in it. Secondly, after a period of transition, an independent UK may find itself in a good economic position - near, and with close links to the EU, and the US. We get none of this as far as I can tell. (That may be the press failing to report the balancing arguments)
I'm still undecided as to how I'm going to vote. If these wise men and women were a little more straightforward and honest in presenting the risks and benefits then they'd have a great deal more chance of persuading me that the core of their arguments are right. As it is I think that they're making a political case primarily dressed up in Economists clothing.
Stupid.
I also wonder if we voted to exit the EU if other countries population would look for substitute products and services from anywhere but UK. My thinking on this is derived from the Scottish vote in 2014 as had the referendum gone the other way I would be disinclined to buy products from Scotland, something that I know other English people would have embraced.
Immigration is another point, I was opposed to much of the Immigration that occurred post 1997. This is now irreversible and the establishment IMO have embraced a strategy of whoever is in power of increasing migration to enhance the size of the economy to ensure that the UK remains a significant global player. If the UK exits the EU does anyone really think the eastern Europeans will all return to their country of origin and what happens to the businesses that are reliant on the immigrants for their Labour? This would be part of the unacceptable shock to the economy through uncertainty as the Immigrants would save money rather than spending it if they thought they were going to be removed from the UK.
So I think on balance Remain has to be the only game in town as the loss of sovereignty has already occurred and we are all surviving despite this.
Of chaps who say Europe's a shakedown
Is likely to stall
Change nothing at all
And bears all the hallmarks of a breakdown
Here all week etc.
I hope this wasn't a trainee's task for this morning.....
-----------------------
100% correct.