1) Have the polls introduced a change post-2015 to compensate for the pre-2015 oversampled people? Are you compensating for something that has already been compensated for?
There real problem is, you can't compensate for a crap sample, because you can't correct on the basis of "who they are going to vote for in the next election" which is the only correction that matters, all the other corrections (age, social group, prior voting etc) are speculatory based on your expectations of how the sample should behaved based on those criteria, which is almost certainly wrong!
You are preaching to the choir here. Panel polling just aint proper sampling.
Way back in the day I was involved in "proper" social science surveys with face-to-face interviews of stratified random sampling over several thousand people, but that might be a touch slow for today's 24/7 media, who would rather a wrong cheap poll now, rather than a right expensive poll next week, maybe a few more prediction car crashes will make them see the error of their ways
(GODDAMN IT I HAVE TO WORK... )
Yes, you're right. If the gap between online and phone polls keeps going, then one of them will be spectacularly wrong, so there will be another car crash.
Somebody, somewhere, should be doing a proper survey with proper sampling like Mum did. I can see why YouGov doesn't do it - it's not their business model and they don't have the capacity nor money to do it - but why doesn't, say, Sky or BBC do it? Why are we fucking around with "polls of polls" when we could be doing it properly?
As long as polls are produced for entertainment, they will value cheap-and-often over slow-and-right....
...sorry, this is a bugbear of mine. Or even a hobbyhorse. I shall go away now and do productive things..
1) Have the polls introduced a change post-2015 to compensate for the pre-2015 oversampled people? Are you compensating for something that has already been compensated for?
There real problem is, you can't compensate for a crap sample, because you can't correct on the basis of "who they are going to vote for in the next election" which is the only correction that matters, all the other corrections (age, social group, prior voting etc) are speculatory based on your expectations of how the sample should behaved based on those criteria, which is almost certainly wrong!
You are preaching to the choir here. Panel polling just aint proper sampling.
Way back in the day I was involved in "proper" social science surveys with face-to-face interviews of stratified random sampling over several thousand people, but that might be a touch slow for today's 24/7 media, who would rather a wrong cheap poll now, rather than a right expensive poll next week, maybe a few more prediction car crashes will make them see the error of their ways
I know of one research company that specialises in this type of work which has been building an on-line database (respondent consent given) from people that have been personally interviewed for full blown social research beforehand with all the appropriate sampling techniques applied.
The real problem with online panels for long term political pollsters is self-sign-up.
The likelihood of someone being selected in a 2k sample should be around 25,000 to 1 - yet there are people who seem to be completing the latest Opinium, Yougov etc every week. That shows how corrupted their samples are.
Do you mean "casual" in the sense of not-like-Hitler-after-1932? You see, I must explain Mr Roger, that unlike quite a few-tweeting-Labour-councillors I don't regard Hitler as a hero or the holocaust as a good thing.
Casual racism is largely generational. It is mainly found in older people with, in most cases, limited or no education. Sound like any parties core voting block?
That sounds like a nice crude generalisation. Since that parties voting block is you say full of racists, its strange that its all the Labour MPs and members that seem to be saying unpleasant things on Twitter, and that a lot of those are young.
Are you suggesting that elderly white people are less racist than younger people? If so that's ludicrous.You don't have to like it but it's true and the reasons for.it are easy to understand. Wrt Labour. There's nothing casual about the anti semitic views many of their supporters hold. They are vile.
It's an interesting speculation. Most elderly white people just want a quite life, they want to live in the same village, talk to the same friends, go out to lunch at the same places and general see out their remaining days without a lot of hassle and change. New folk coming into their area from cities in their country or any other are going to get a fairly testy response irrespective of the colour of their skin.
Mrs Indigo (Snr) a blue rinse Tory if ever there was one is quite at ease with her brown skinned daughter-in-law (Mrs Indigo) and her brown skinned grand children, she has a good laugh with her Polish gardener and chats with the nice Indian couple that run the local shop. Where her sense of humor noticeably fades is the rather uncouth white chavvy couple from London that live a couple of doors along and have a scruffy house with an unkept garden and play music loud and late.
If anyone is prone to reflex racism its probably the working-age white working class, who are seeing daily their wages depressed an their jobs being taken by lower bidders mostly from Eastern Europe, and don't like it.
I've commented a couple of times on Scotland drifting towards English norms in this vote
Really? The Scottish only EU polls seem pretty consistent within the parameter of large to very large leads for In. The first poll of April had the In/Out gap at 18pts, one of the lowest. The last three had successive In leads of 27, 37 and 24 pts.
I haven't seen the full Scotland ones - I'm just noticing in the subsamples that it seems to be getting closer. It may be my imagination.
ICM 58-42 Opinium 60-40
Scottish subsamples, that way madness lies..
Full polls are here, quite bouncy but only in the size of In leads.
You are very probably right, though I do recall people on here telling me the same in September 2014 when the sub-samples started to show a shift from Labour to SNP.
I really believe that the electoral impact of Livingstone's ramblings will be small - perhaps minimal. He is very much a figure of the past and few people - beyond political anoraks - will make the direct connection with the current leadership that many assume. It will pass by most people - as the YouGov poll tended to suggest. Probably not much different in terms of electoral salience to Norman Tebbit saying something outrageous - everyone knows he belongs to a bygone age .
Corbyn appointed Livingstone to co-convene Labour's defence review alongside Maria Eagle.
You and I know that - most voters neither know nor care! Moreover he has been disciplined by the leadership and has always been a maverick - having already been expelled once.
LABOUR can suspend or expel a person, but Labour can not change the thought amongst (how many) scores of its councillors and thousands of its members and voters that "Hitler wasn't a bad chap at first/ever" etc. etc.
I will be surprised if much evidence of that emerges. Probably much easier to come up with evidence of pro Nazi sympathies in the pre-war Tory party!
Yeah, but that was BEFORE in May 1945 we had FOOTAGE of Belsen-Belsen - which I reckon was beyond the previous worst imaginings of 99.99% of British people..
Even if Kasich weren't in the race, Trump leads this Indiana poll by double digits https://t.co/3CFPdfzND0
It's all over bar the shouting - it would be interesting to have a thread on whom his running mate might be. Today's Times suggests that Chris Christie is a distinct possibility.
I really believe that the electoral impact of Livingstone's ramblings will be small - perhaps minimal. He is very much a figure of the past and few people - beyond political anoraks - will make the direct connection with the current leadership that many assume. It will pass by most people - as the YouGov poll tended to suggest. Probably not much different in terms of electoral salience to Norman Tebbit saying something outrageous - everyone knows he belongs to a bygone age .
Corbyn appointed Livingstone to co-convene Labour's defence review alongside Maria Eagle.
You and I know that - most voters neither know nor care! Moreover he has been disciplined by the leadership and has always been a maverick - having already been expelled once.
LABOUR can suspend or expel a person, but Labour can not change the thought amongst (how many) scores of its councillors and thousands of its members and voters that "Hitler wasn't a bad chap at first/ever" etc. etc.
Not that difficult to find Tories who have been at Hitler themed parties etc.
Yeah, but that was BEFORE in May 1945 we had FOOTAGE of Belsen-Belsen - which I reckon was beyond the previous worst imaginings of 99.99% of British people. Now there's no excuse for attending Hitler-themed parties or tweeting Hitler-is-my-hero ...
Do you mean "casual" in the sense of not-like-Hitler-after-1932? You see, I must explain Mr Roger, that unlike quite a few-tweeting-Labour-councillors I don't regard Hitler as a hero or the holocaust as a good thing.
Casual racism is largely generational. It is mainly found in older people with, in most cases, limited or no education. Sound like any parties core voting block?
That sounds like a nice crude generalisation. Since that parties voting block is you say full of racists, its strange that its all the Labour MPs and members that seem to be saying unpleasant things on Twitter, and that a lot of those are young.
Are you suggesting that elderly white people are less racist than younger people? If so that's ludicrous.You don't have to like it but it's true and the reasons for.it are easy to understand. Wrt Labour. There's nothing casual about the anti semitic views many of their supporters hold. They are vile.
It's an interesting speculation. Most elderly white people just want a quite life, they want to live in the same village, talk to the same friends, go out to lunch at the same places and general see out their remaining days without a lot of hassle and change. New folk coming into their area from cities in their country or any other are going to get a fairly testy response irrespective of the colour of their skin.
Mrs Indigo (Snr) a blue rinse Tory if ever there was one is quite at ease with her brown skinned daughter-in-law (Mrs Indigo) and her brown skinned grand children, she has a good laugh with her Polish gardener and chats with the nice Indian couple that run the local shop. Where her sense of humor noticeably fades is the rather uncouth white chavvy couple from London that live a couple of doors along and have a scruffy house with an unkept garden and play music loud and late.
If anyone is prone to reflex racism its probably the working-age white working class, who are seeing daily their wages depressed an their jobs being taken by lower bidders mostly from Eastern Europe, and don't like it.
I'm sure you're right about working class white people being upset about immigration from eastern Europe. That's not racism though is it? I'm imagine your wife is a little brighter than some of the people Im referring too. With every generation that passes tolerance becomes greater which is brilliant. Let's hope it continues. What's indisputable is there is still a lot of racism amongst less educated older people which ukip get a lot of support from. Still, your right about Labour. That's why I wouldnt vote for them. Or Ukip!!
Do you mean "casual" in the sense of not-like-Hitler-after-1932? You see, I must explain Mr Roger, that unlike quite a few-tweeting-Labour-councillors I don't regard Hitler as a hero or the holocaust as a good thing.
Casual racism is largely generational. It is mainly found in older people with, in most cases, limited or no education. Sound like any parties core voting block?
Well, I've got a Ph.D, and I support UKIP and Brexit. But then, several of the wisest people I know have no tertiary qualifications and, indeed, the universities contain some of our biggest idiots. I believe Orwell once said that some ideas are so stupid that only an intellectual could believe them ....
Even if Kasich weren't in the race, Trump leads this Indiana poll by double digits https://t.co/3CFPdfzND0
It's all over bar the shouting - it would be interesting to have a thread on whom his running mate might be. Today's Times suggests that Chris Christie is a distinct possibility.
I really don't think so.
If the national race was even, Cruz would be marginally ahead in Indiana based on demographics. I think Trump 49% in Indiana polling indicates 50+% in California. He'll end up at about 1300 delegates, plenty of headroom.
Even if Kasich weren't in the race, Trump leads this Indiana poll by double digits https://t.co/3CFPdfzND0
It's all over bar the shouting - it would be interesting to have a thread on whom his running mate might be. Today's Times suggests that Chris Christie is a distinct possibility.
I really don't think so.
If the national race was even, Cruz would be marginally ahead in Indiana based on demographics. I think Trump 49% in Indiana polling indicates 50+% in California. He'll end up at about 1300 delegates, plenty of headroom.
Sorry, should have been clearer.
Trump is now IMO 70% likely to secure 1,237 on bound delegates, 90% on the first ballot.
It was the Chris Christie point I don't agree with. Another political move left in him, perhaps to the Attorney General's Office, but not the Vice-Presidency.
Hallie Jackson Cruz says he "absolutely" can still win the nomination even if he loses IN - says he's in the race as long as he has "viable path" to nom.
Do you mean "casual" in the sense of not-like-Hitler-after-1932? You see, I must explain Mr Roger, that unlike quite a few-tweeting-Labour-councillors I don't regard Hitler as a hero or the holocaust as a good thing.
Casual racism is largely generational. It is mainly found in older people with, in most cases, limited or no education. Sound like any parties core voting block?
Well, I've got a Ph.D, and I support UKIP and Brexit. But then, several of the wisest people I know have no tertiary qualifications and, indeed, the universities contain some of our biggest idiots. I believe Orwell once said that some ideas are so stupid that only an intellectual could believe them ....
1) Have the polls introduced a change post-2015 to compensate for the pre-2015 oversampled people? Are you compensating for something that has already been compensated for?
There real problem is, you can't compensate for a crap sample, because you can't correct on the basis of "who they are going to vote for in the next election" which is the only correction that matters, all the other corrections (age, social group, prior voting etc) are speculatory based on your expectations of how the sample should behaved based on those criteria, which is almost certainly wrong!
You are preaching to the choir here. Panel polling just aint proper sampling.
Way back in the day I was involved in "proper" social science surveys with face-to-face interviews of stratified random sampling over several thousand people, but that might be a touch slow for today's 24/7 media, who would rather a wrong cheap poll now, rather than a right expensive poll next week, maybe a few more prediction car crashes will make them see the error of their ways
I hope that's where we end up - fewer but much better polls. Of course, it becomes a question of who will pay.
I really believe that the electoral impact of Livingstone's ramblings will be small - perhaps minimal. He is very much a figure of the past and few people - beyond political anoraks - will make the direct connection with the current leadership that many assume. It will pass by most people - as the YouGov poll tended to suggest. Probably not much different in terms of electoral salience to Norman Tebbit saying something outrageous - everyone knows he belongs to a bygone age .
Corbyn appointed Livingstone to co-convene Labour's defence review alongside Maria Eagle.
You and I know that - most voters neither know nor care! Moreover he has been disciplined by the leadership and has always been a maverick - having already been expelled once.
LABOUR can suspend or expel a person, but Labour can not change the thought amongst (how many) scores of its councillors and thousands of its members and voters that "Hitler wasn't a bad chap at first/ever" etc. etc.
Not that difficult to find Tories who have been at Hitler themed parties etc.
Do you mean "casual" in the sense of not-like-Hitler-after-1932? You see, I must explain Mr Roger, that unlike quite a few-tweeting-Labour-councillors I don't regard Hitler as a hero or the holocaust as a good thing.
Casual racism is largely generational. It is mainly found in older people with, in most cases, limited or no education. Sound like any parties core voting block?
That sounds like a nice crude generalisation. Since that parties voting block is you say full of racists, its strange that its all the Labour MPs and members that seem to be saying unpleasant things on Twitter, and that a lot of those are young.
Are you many of their supporters hold. They are vile.
It's an interesting speculation. Most elderly white people just want a quite life, they want to live in the same village, talk to the same friends, go out to lunch at the same places and general see out their remaining days without a lot of hassle and change. New folk coming into their area from cities in their country or any other are going to get a fairly testy response irrespective of the colour of their skin.
Mrs Indigo (Snr) a blue rinse Tory if ever there was one is quite at ease with her brown skinned daughter-in-law (Mrs Indigo) and her brown skinned grand children, she has a good laugh with her Polish gardener and chats with the nice Indian couple that run the local shop. Where her sense of humor noticeably fades is the rather uncouth white chavvy couple from London that live a couple of doors along and have a scruffy house with an unkept garden and play music loud and late.
If anyone is prone to reflex racism its probably the working-age white working class, who are seeing daily their wages depressed an their jobs being taken by lower bidders mostly from Eastern Europe, and don't like it.
I'm sure you're right about working class white people being upset about immigration from eastern Europe. That's not racism though is it? I'm imagine your wife is a little brighter than some of the people Im referring too. With every generation that passes tolerance becomes greater which is brilliant. Let's hope it continues. What's indisputable is there is still a lot of racism amongst less educated older people which ukip get a lot of support from. Still, your right about Labour. That's why I wouldnt vote for them. Or Ukip!!
I think you can find a great deal of bigotry, racism, and general unpleasantness on university campuses, among young, well-educated people. So, I would dispute your generalisation.
BPR Report into GE2016 "Our conclusion is that the primary cause of the polling miss was unrepresentative samples. The methods the pollsters used to collect samples of voters systematically over-represented Labour supporters and under-represented Conservative supporters. The statistical adjustment procedures applied to the raw data did not mitigate this basic problem to any notable degree."
The question is whether the polling companies have correctly adjusted for these errors? The party that was over represented was Labour voters. Labour voters are estimated to be voting for REMAIN making up typically half REMAIN's predicted voters. Labour voters are estimated in at least one poll to be voting for REMAIN in ratios of up to 4:1 and have turnout levels that are IMHO unrealistically high.
Yougov's Fieldwork: 25th - 26th April 2016 has 66% of Labour voters stating that they are a 10/10 absolutely certain to vote in the referendum.....A real WTF.
By comparison Conservative voters were under represented and are forecast to be slightly in favour of LEAVE.
Too many labour voters, particularly the young = suspect polls.
Opinium has 43% of Tory voters voting Remain, 45% Leave, 59% of Labour voters voting Remain, 28% Leave, 68% of LD voters voting Remain, 20% Leave, 3% of UKIP voters voting Remain, 92% Leave. Overall 42% back Remain, 41% Leave. On certainty to vote it has 65% 10/10 certain to vote in the EU referendum, 8% 9/10. 18-34s are 49% 10/10 certain to vote, 55+ 78% 10/10 certain to vote. Those figures seem highly plausible to me. Scottish voters are 70% 10/10 certain to vote, English and Welsh voters 65%, Scotland also had a higher turnout at the general election too http://ourinsight.opinium.co.uk/sites/ourinsight.opinium.co.uk/files/vi_tables_26_04_2016_final.pdf
A 67% 10/10 certainty to vote for Labour voters in the coming referendum is just too high. At best it should be not much more than 50% Labour at a 10/10 certainty to vote.
Re: Nazi regalia. There was a period from about 1976 to 1979 when a certain group of youth used Nazi regalia in their punk clothes. It was all about shock value.
Hi Sunil, advise please. I know i'm going to finish my degree in biochem and want (hopefully a career in research) but is it worth it? I mean doing a degree, then possibly a masters then a Phd for a stripend of what £20k if you're lucky? I dunno why we seem not to value science for all our "we value science" bs seems like we really value finance and debt.
I know you don't go into science careers for the money but c'mon !
besides we don't even seem to be creating that many research jobs compared to places like Singapore.
Do you mean "casual" in the sense of not-like-Hitler-after-1932? You see, I must explain Mr Roger, that unlike quite a few-tweeting-Labour-councillors I don't regard Hitler as a hero or the holocaust as a good thing.
Casual racism is largely generational. It is mainly found in older people with, in most cases, limited or no education. Sound like any parties core voting block?
Well, I've got a Ph.D, and I support UKIP and Brexit. But then, several of the wisest people I know have no tertiary qualifications and, indeed, the universities contain some of our biggest idiots. I believe Orwell once said that some ideas are so stupid that only an intellectual could believe them ....
I have a PhD too
Ah. I only have a BSc so maybe I am dumb enough to support Brexit. :-)
I really believe that the electoral impact of Livingstone's ramblings will be small - perhaps minimal. He is very much a figure of the past and few people - beyond political anoraks - will make the direct connection with the current leadership that many assume. It will pass by most people - as the YouGov poll tended to suggest. Probably not much different in terms of electoral salience to Norman Tebbit saying something outrageous - everyone knows he belongs to a bygone age .
Corbyn appointed Livingstone to co-convene Labour's defence review alongside Maria Eagle.
You and I know that - most voters neither know nor care! Moreover he has been disciplined by the leadership and has always been a maverick - having already been expelled once.
LABOUR can suspend or expel a person, but Labour can not change the thought amongst (how many) scores of its councillors and thousands of its members and voters that "Hitler wasn't a bad chap at first/ever" etc. etc.
Not that difficult to find Tories who have been at Hitler themed parties etc.
Ed Balls is a tory?
Correlation does not imply causation, but he was a member of the university Conservative Association at the time.
Do you mean "casual" in the sense of not-like-Hitler-after-1932? You see, I must explain Mr Roger, that unlike quite a few-tweeting-Labour-councillors I don't regard Hitler as a hero or the holocaust as a good thing.
Casual racism is largely generational. It is mainly found in older people with, in most cases, limited or no education. Sound like any parties core voting block?
Well, I've got a Ph.D, and I support UKIP and Brexit. But then, several of the wisest people I know have no tertiary qualifications and, indeed, the universities contain some of our biggest idiots. I believe Orwell once said that some ideas are so stupid that only an intellectual could believe them ....
I think the THES found that something like 80% of university workers voted Labour, SNP, or Green at the last election, but I don't view that as being evidence of superior wisdom on their part.
As I've often pointed out, lots of older professional people qualified while training, rather than going to university first.
Do you mean "casual" in the sense of not-like-Hitler-after-1932? You see, I must explain Mr Roger, that unlike quite a few-tweeting-Labour-councillors I don't regard Hitler as a hero or the holocaust as a good thing.
Casual racism is largely generational. It is mainly found in older people with, in most cases, limited or no education. Sound like any parties core voting block?
Well, I've got a Ph.D, and I support UKIP and Brexit. But then, several of the wisest people I know have no tertiary qualifications and, indeed, the universities contain some of our biggest idiots. I believe Orwell once said that some ideas are so stupid that only an intellectual could believe them ....
I have a PhD too
Ah. I only have a BSc so maybe I am dumb enough to support Brexit. :-)
Well, I am not an FRS yet, so maybe I'm still dumb enough as well
Who said that there is wisdom in crowds? My recollection is that the wider surveys across all voters did not have a large majority of voters expecting a majority Conservative Govt, two months before GE.
As a comparison in March 2015 only 20% of Conservative members expected a majority Conservative government. In April 2016 only 25% of them expect us to LEAVE the EU.
Hi Sunil, advise please. I know i'm going to finish my degree in biochem and want (hopefully a career in research) but is it worth it? I mean doing a degree, then possibly a masters then a Phd for a stripend of what £20k if you're lucky? I dunno why we seem not to value science for all our "we value science" bs seems like we really value finance and debt.
I know you don't go into science careers for the money but c'mon !
besides we don't even seem to be creating that many research jobs compared to places like Singapore.
I'll send you a private message via this website within the next few hours. Watch this space
Do you mean "casual" in the sense of not-like-Hitler-after-1932? You see, I must explain Mr Roger, that unlike quite a few-tweeting-Labour-councillors I don't regard Hitler as a hero or the holocaust as a good thing.
Casual racism is largely generational. It is mainly found in older people with, in most cases, limited or no education. Sound like any parties core voting block?
Well, I've got a Ph.D, and I support UKIP and Brexit. But then, several of the wisest people I know have no tertiary qualifications and, indeed, the universities contain some of our biggest idiots. I believe Orwell once said that some ideas are so stupid that only an intellectual could believe them ....
I have a PhD too
Ah. I only have a BSc so maybe I am dumb enough to support Brexit. :-)
Well, I am not an FRS yet, so maybe I'm still dumb enough as well
Since one of my family back in the Victorian period was FRS I kept hoping it would rub off on me but it appears dedication, hard work and genius are not, after all, hereditary. I have settled for being a well paid Geek instead.
Who said that there is wisdom in crowds? My recollection is that the wider surveys across all voters did not have a large majority of voters expecting a majority Conservative Govt, two months before GE.
As a comparison in March 2015 only 20% of Conservative members expected a majority Conservative government. In April 2016 only 25% of them expect us to LEAVE the EU.
ICM’s final “wisdom of crowds index” – respondents’ averaged best guess of how each party will score – continues to put the Tories ahead on 35%, compared to 32% Labour. Voters also envisage the Lib Dems on 14%, ahead of Ukip on 10%, all figures that are unchanged from the provisional data.
While not a majority, that's a nearer than most polls, certainly within any error bars.
Re: Nazi regalia. There was a period from about 1976 to 1979 when a certain group of youth used Nazi regalia in their punk clothes. It was all about shock value.
Indeed the Sex Pistols did a song called "Belsen was a Gas" ,
Who said that there is wisdom in crowds? My recollection is that the wider surveys across all voters did not have a large majority of voters expecting a majority Conservative Govt, two months before GE.
As a comparison in March 2015 only 20% of Conservative members expected a majority Conservative government. In April 2016 only 25% of them expect us to LEAVE the EU.
Crowds, like any other decision-making system, work on the principle of garbage-in garbage-out. People knew that the polls pointed to a hung parliament.
ICM’s final “wisdom of crowds index” – respondents’ averaged best guess of how each party will score – continues to put the Tories ahead on 35%, compared to 32% Labour. Voters also envisage the Lib Dems on 14%, ahead of Ukip on 10%, all figures that are unchanged from the provisional data.
A combined right wing of 45% (much like the phone polls kept suggesting). It was nearly 51%.
Do you mean "casual" in the sense of not-like-Hitler-after-1932? You see, I must explain Mr Roger, that unlike quite a few-tweeting-Labour-councillors I don't regard Hitler as a hero or the holocaust as a good thing.
Casual racism is largely generational. It is mainly found in older people with, in most cases, limited or no education. Sound like any parties core voting block?
Well, I've got a Ph.D, and I support UKIP and Brexit. But then, several of the wisest people I know have no tertiary qualifications and, indeed, the universities contain some of our biggest idiots. I believe Orwell once said that some ideas are so stupid that only an intellectual could believe them ....
I think the THES found that something like 80% of university workers voted Labour, SNP, or Green at the last election, but I don't view that as being evidence of superior wisdom on their part.
As I've often pointed out, lots of older professional people qualified while training, rather than going to university first.
They exist in the bubble that is extremely detached from reality *. It is like asking London journos about what life if like "up naff" in somewhere like Hull.
Re: Nazi regalia. There was a period from about 1976 to 1979 when a certain group of youth used Nazi regalia in their punk clothes. It was all about shock value.
Indeed the Sex Pistols did a song called "Belsen was a Gas" ,
ICM’s final “wisdom of crowds index” – respondents’ averaged best guess of how each party will score – continues to put the Tories ahead on 35%, compared to 32% Labour. Voters also envisage the Lib Dems on 14%, ahead of Ukip on 10%, all figures that are unchanged from the provisional data.
A combined right wing of 45% (much like the phone polls kept suggesting). It was nearly 51%.
ICM’s final “wisdom of crowds index” – respondents’ averaged best guess of how each party will score – continues to put the Tories ahead on 35%, compared to 32% Labour. Voters also envisage the Lib Dems on 14%, ahead of Ukip on 10%, all figures that are unchanged from the provisional data.
A combined right wing of 45% (much like the phone polls kept suggesting). It was nearly 51%.
Still better than most of the polls, as you'd no doubt agree.
Labour over estimated, Conservatives slightly under estimated and LD and UKIP badly out.
ICM said: "ICM’s final “wisdom of crowds index” – respondents’ averaged best guess of how each party will score – continues to put the Tories ahead on 35%, compared to 32% Labour. Voters also envisage the Lib Dems on 14%, ahead of Ukip on 10%, all figures that are unchanged from the provisional data."
BREAKING: Third Labour Councillor Suspended Over "Hitler" Tweet
Burnley Labour councillor Shah Hussain has been suspended for tweeting to the Israeli footballer Yossi Benayoun that “you and your country doing the same thing that hitler did to ur race in ww2”.
Do you mean "casual" in the sense of not-like-Hitler-after-1932? You see, I must explain Mr Roger, that unlike quite a few-tweeting-Labour-councillors I don't regard Hitler as a hero or the holocaust as a good thing.
Casual racism is largely generational. It is mainly found in older people with, in most cases, limited or no education. Sound like any parties core voting block?
Well, I've got a Ph.D, and I support UKIP and Brexit. But then, several of the wisest people I know have no tertiary qualifications and, indeed, the universities contain some of our biggest idiots. I believe Orwell once said that some ideas are so stupid that only an intellectual could believe them ....
I have a PhD too
Me too. Engineering
But then became a management consultant - does that cancel it out?
Labour over estimated, Conservatives slightly under estimated and LD and UKIP badly out.
ICM said: "ICM’s final “wisdom of crowds index” – respondents’ averaged best guess of how each party will score – continues to put the Tories ahead on 35%, compared to 32% Labour. Voters also envisage the Lib Dems on 14%, ahead of Ukip on 10%, all figures that are unchanged from the provisional data."
The main two within any reasonable statistical uncertainty and better than any pollster, no?
Do you mean "casual" in the sense of not-like-Hitler-after-1932? You see, I must explain Mr Roger, that unlike quite a few-tweeting-Labour-councillors I don't regard Hitler as a hero or the holocaust as a good thing.
Casual racism is largely generational. It is mainly found in older people with, in most cases, limited or no education. Sound like any parties core voting block?
Well, I've got a Ph.D, and I support UKIP and Brexit. But then, several of the wisest people I know have no tertiary qualifications and, indeed, the universities contain some of our biggest idiots. I believe Orwell once said that some ideas are so stupid that only an intellectual could believe them ....
I have a PhD too
Ah. I only have a BSc so maybe I am dumb enough to support Brexit. :-)
I have lower second in philosophy... So you should all listen to me
Cllr Hussain tells Guido that he has not been “formally informed” of his suspension but confirms Labour have been in touch and that he believes he will be suspended pending the outcome of an investigation. That’s three Labour councillors booted out in five hours…
ICM’s final “wisdom of crowds index” – respondents’ averaged best guess of how each party will score – continues to put the Tories ahead on 35%, compared to 32% Labour. Voters also envisage the Lib Dems on 14%, ahead of Ukip on 10%, all figures that are unchanged from the provisional data.
A combined right wing of 45% (much like the phone polls kept suggesting). It was nearly 51%.
Still better than most of the polls, as you'd no doubt agree.
The Tory/Labour part? Yes indeed.
I am just unconvinced by the general line that the 'phones are right, the net is wrong in the context of this referendum, the reason being that a third of the voting electorate are neither Tory or Labour.
ICM’s final “wisdom of crowds index” – respondents’ averaged best guess of how each party will score – continues to put the Tories ahead on 35%, compared to 32% Labour. Voters also envisage the Lib Dems on 14%, ahead of Ukip on 10%, all figures that are unchanged from the provisional data.
A combined right wing of 45% (much like the phone polls kept suggesting). It was nearly 51%.
Still better than most of the polls, as you'd no doubt agree.
The Tory/Labour part? Yes indeed.
I am just unconvinced by the the general line that phones are right, the net is wrong in the context of this referendum, the reason being that a third of the voting electorate are neither Tory nor Labour.
BPR Report into GE2016 "Our conclusion is that the primary cause of the polling miss was unrepresentative samples. The methods the pollsters used to collect samples of voters systematically over-represented Labour supporters and under-represented Conservative supporters. The statistical adjustment procedures applied to the raw data did not mitigate this basic problem to any notable degree."
The question is whether the polling companies have correctly adjusted for these errors? The party that was over represented was Labour voters. Labour voters are estimated to be voting for REMAIN making up typically half REMAIN's predicted voters. Labour voters are estimated in at least one poll to be voting for REMAIN in ratios of up to 4:1 and have turnout levels that are IMHO unrealistically high.
Yougov's Fieldwork: 25th - 26th April 2016 has 66% of Labour voters stating that they are a 10/10 absolutely certain to vote in the referendum.....A real WTF.
By comparison Conservative voters were under represented and are forecast to be slightly in favour of LEAVE.
Too many labour voters, particularly the young = suspect polls.
Opinium has 43% of Tory voters voting Remain, 45% Leave, 59% of Labour voters voting Remain, 28% Leave, 68% of LD voters voting Remain, 20% Leave, 3% of UKIP voters voting Remain, 92% Leave. Overall 42% back Remain, 41% Leave. On certainty to vote it has 65% 10/10 certain to vote in the EU referendum, 8% 9/10. 18-34s are 49% 10/10 certain to vote, 55+ 78% 10/10 certain to vote. Those figures seem highly plausible to me. Scottish voters are 70% 10/10 certain to vote, English and Welsh voters 65%, Scotland also had a higher turnout at the general election too http://ourinsight.opinium.co.uk/sites/ourinsight.opinium.co.uk/files/vi_tables_26_04_2016_final.pdf
A 67% 10/10 certainty to vote for Labour voters in the coming referendum is just too high. At best it should be not much more than 50% Labour at a 10/10 certainty to vote.
Why? If Labour voters voted in 2015 why should they not vote in the referendum? Opinium already factors in Labour voters as turning out less than Tory voters, at 73%, LD voters at 71% and UKIP voters at 85% anyway
I thought a huge number of athlete have got similar tattoo as a symbol they have competed at the Olympics. It is hardly having your body plastered with "Just Do It" complete with Nike swoosh.
BTW .... Outbursts of naughty posting may be overlooked by OGH in the coming hours should Burnley FC win their current match that would see them promoted to the Premiership ....
Do you mean "casual" in the sense of not-like-Hitler-after-1932? You see, I must explain Mr Roger, that unlike quite a few-tweeting-Labour-councillors I don't regard Hitler as a hero or the holocaust as a good thing.
Casual racism is largely generational. It is mainly found in older people with, in most cases, limited or no education. Sound like any parties core voting block?
Casual racism would seem to be endemic on the young far left snd amongst young muslims of some traditions. The Greens and the BDS campaign are riddled with it but in denial.
Reading some of the posts downthread it's clear this is becoming a witch hunt. Since when has it been unacceptable to disagree with Zionism? Could those posters down thread who treat us to non stop Guido explain? Many eminent Rabbis fundamentally disagree with Zionism.
Could those who think they're uncovering another anti Semite please take note. They sound like morons. It's time Corbyn and his junta stopped joining the hunt and started to engage their brains and remind everyone that the Labour Party still believes in free speech.How many weeks ago was it since we were all CHARLIE?
I don't see how that tweet is Anti - Semitic. Whoever sent it is clearly Anti-Nazi and is condemning Israel for behaving in the same way. That is a perfectly legitimate view to hold and is in no way Anti- Semitic. Basic freedom of speech surely demands that to be so.
Reading some of the posts downthread it's clear this is becoming a witch hunt. Since when has it been unacceptable to disagree with Zionism? Could those posters down thread who treat us to non stop Guido explain? Many eminent Rabbis fundamentally disagree with Zionism.
Could those who think they're uncovering another anti Semite please take note. They sound like morons. It's time Corbyn and his junta stopped joining the hunt and started to engage their brains and remind everyone that the Labour Party still believes in free speech.How many weeks ago was it since we were all CHARLIE?
Unfortunately @Roger those suspended are frankly a foreskin short of a full todger and the sooner Labour clears out the total cocks in the party the better.
Labour over estimated, Conservatives slightly under estimated and LD and UKIP badly out.
ICM said: "ICM’s final “wisdom of crowds index” – respondents’ averaged best guess of how each party will score – continues to put the Tories ahead on 35%, compared to 32% Labour. Voters also envisage the Lib Dems on 14%, ahead of Ukip on 10%, all figures that are unchanged from the provisional data."
It's time Corbyn and his junta stopped joining the hunt and started to engage their brains and remind everyone that the Labour Party still believes in free speech.
Tulip Siddiq, Labour MP for Hampstead and Kilburn, joined the calls for him (The Don) to be banned, saying people had felt “we need to stop a poisonous, corrosive man from entering the country”. She said Trump was a danger to public safety and her constituents were worried, as hate crimes had risen in line with the rise of such rhetoric.
“Hate crime is being inflamed and stoked by the words that Donald Trump is using,” she said. “I draw the line of freedom of speech when it actually invites violent ideology which is what I feel is happening ...
“If legislation has been practised before and other people stopped from coming into the country, the same rules need to apply to Donald Trump, which is why I feel he should not have been given a visa to visit the multicultural country that we are so proud of.”
There is nothing anti Semitic in comparing the Israelis with the Nazis. It is an over exaggeration but so are most Hitler comparisons yet we hear them every day.
If all these comfy seat Muslims and their equally comfy seat well off middle class white Labour mates have such a problem why don't they seek to join an invasion against Israel in order to wipe it out.
And fail, again.
It sticks in their craw that Israel is a relatively successful nation state and the wider Jewish population a successful group in global terms.
Could those who think they're uncovering another anti Semite please take note. They sound like morons. It's time Corbyn and his junta stopped joining the hunt and started to engage their brains and remind everyone that the Labour Party still believes in free speech.How many weeks ago was it since we were all CHARLIE?
Bzzzzt! Sorry you can't play that card, this is the same Labour Party that brought in the egregious Racial and Religious Hatred Act 2006. What is sauce for the Islamic goose is sauce for the Jewish gander.
I know lots of Jews in the UK..USA and Israel..and most of them hate the policies of their present Government..so to claim all Jews are fervent Zionists, as some Labourites are doing, is totally ludicrous
Labour over estimated, Conservatives slightly under estimated and LD and UKIP badly out.
ICM said: "ICM’s final “wisdom of crowds index” – respondents’ averaged best guess of how each party will score – continues to put the Tories ahead on 35%, compared to 32% Labour. Voters also envisage the Lib Dems on 14%, ahead of Ukip on 10%, all figures that are unchanged from the provisional data."
There is nothing anti Semitic in comparing the Israelis with the Nazis. It is an over exaggeration but so are most Hitler comparisons yet we hear them every day.
Nothing anti semitic maybe. Extremely stupid - certainly.
Reading some of the posts downthread it's clear this is becoming a witch hunt. Since when has it been unacceptable to disagree with Zionism? Could those posters down thread who treat us to non stop Guido explain? Many eminent Rabbis fundamentally disagree with Zionism.
Could those who think they're uncovering another anti Semite please take note. They sound like morons. It's time Corbyn and his junta stopped joining the hunt and started to engage their brains and remind everyone that the Labour Party still believes in free speech.How many weeks ago was it since we were all CHARLIE?
Unfortunately @Roger those suspended are frankly a foreskin short of a full todger and the sooner Labour clears out the total cocks in the party the better.
No pain no gain.
It reminds me of the story of the bloke who went into a shop in Brooklyn and asked for two pounds of potatoes.
"I'm sorry but I don't sell potatoes. I'm a mohel"
"Well why the Hell have you got potatoes in your window?"
Could we see a backlash against Labour in west yorkshire and lancashire come the local elections due to the anti-semitism "row". If so how big also long term could these seats (Bradford and Leeds suburbs such as keighly, shipley, morley and outwood turn permeantly against labour if they are seen as the "Muslim party"?
Reading some of the posts downthread it's clear this is becoming a witch hunt. Since when has it been unacceptable to disagree with Zionism? Could those posters down thread who treat us to non stop Guido explain? Many eminent Rabbis fundamentally disagree with Zionism.
Could those who think they're uncovering another anti Semite please take note. They sound like morons. It's time Corbyn and his junta stopped joining the hunt and started to engage their brains and remind everyone that the Labour Party still believes in free speech.How many weeks ago was it since we were all CHARLIE?
Unfortunately @Roger those suspended are frankly a foreskin short of a full todger and the sooner Labour clears out the total cocks in the party the better.
No pain no gain.
It reminds me of the story of the bloke who went into a shop in Brooklyn and asked for two pounds of potatoes.
"I'm sorry but I don't sell potatoes. I'm a mohel"
"Well why the Hell have you got potatoes in your window?"
There is nothing anti Semitic in comparing the Israelis with the Nazis. It is an over exaggeration but so are most Hitler comparisons yet we hear them every day.
I don't know why I am bothering but.....
There is a huge pile of evidence about what has been going on in Labour circles for years.
Reading some of the posts downthread it's clear this is becoming a witch hunt. Since when has it been unacceptable to disagree with Zionism? Could those posters down thread who treat us to non stop Guido explain? Many eminent Rabbis fundamentally disagree with Zionism.
Could those who think they're uncovering another anti Semite please take note. They sound like morons. It's time Corbyn and his junta stopped joining the hunt and started to engage their brains and remind everyone that the Labour Party still believes in free speech.How many weeks ago was it since we were all CHARLIE?
Unfortunately @Roger those suspended are frankly a foreskin short of a full todger and the sooner Labour clears out the total cocks in the party the better.
No pain no gain.
It reminds me of the story of the bloke who went into a shop in Brooklyn and asked for two pounds of potatoes.
"I'm sorry but I don't sell potatoes. I'm a mohel"
"Well why the Hell have you got potatoes in your window?"
"Well what do you want me to have in my window?"
Very good ...
But presently Jezza is sitting in the Labour store window shouting "squirrel" whilst many of the shopping electorate are gazing at the firestorm on the shop floor in bemusement and disdain in equal measure.
I know lots of Jews in the UK..USA and Israel..and most of them hate the policies of their present Government..so to claim all Jews are fervent Zionists, as some Labourites are doing, is totally ludicrous
For once you've hit the nail on the head. This Likud governent is the most racist Israeli government in living memory. An embarrassment to Jews everywhere. It's only the great unwashed -well represented on here-that are adopting such a simplistic stance because their knowledge is so limited
Comments
Yes, you're right. If the gap between online and phone polls keeps going, then one of them will be spectacularly wrong, so there will be another car crash.
Somebody, somewhere, should be doing a proper survey with proper sampling like Mum did. I can see why YouGov doesn't do it - it's not their business model and they don't have the capacity nor money to do it - but why doesn't, say, Sky or BBC do it? Why are we fucking around with "polls of polls" when we could be doing it properly?
As long as polls are produced for entertainment, they will value cheap-and-often over slow-and-right....
...sorry, this is a bugbear of mine. Or even a hobbyhorse. I shall go away now and do productive things..
The real problem with online panels for long term political pollsters is self-sign-up.
The likelihood of someone being selected in a 2k sample should be around 25,000 to 1 - yet there are people who seem to be completing the latest Opinium, Yougov etc every week. That shows how corrupted their samples are.
Mrs Indigo (Snr) a blue rinse Tory if ever there was one is quite at ease with her brown skinned daughter-in-law (Mrs Indigo) and her brown skinned grand children, she has a good laugh with her Polish gardener and chats with the nice Indian couple that run the local shop. Where her sense of humor noticeably fades is the rather uncouth white chavvy couple from London that live a couple of doors along and have a scruffy house with an unkept garden and play music loud and late.
If anyone is prone to reflex racism its probably the working-age white working class, who are seeing daily their wages depressed an their jobs being taken by lower bidders mostly from Eastern Europe, and don't like it.
I'm imagine your wife is a little brighter than some of the people Im referring too. With every generation that passes tolerance becomes greater which is brilliant. Let's hope it continues.
What's indisputable is there is still a lot of racism amongst less educated older people which ukip get a lot of support from.
Still, your right about Labour. That's why I wouldnt vote for them. Or Ukip!!
Trump is now IMO 70% likely to secure 1,237 on bound delegates, 90% on the first ballot.
It was the Chris Christie point I don't agree with. Another political move left in him, perhaps to the Attorney General's Office, but not the Vice-Presidency.
Cruz says he "absolutely" can still win the nomination even if he loses IN - says he's in the race as long as he has "viable path" to nom.
Hi Sunil, advise please. I know i'm going to finish my degree in biochem and want (hopefully a career in research) but is it worth it? I mean doing a degree, then possibly a masters then a Phd for a stripend of what £20k if you're lucky? I dunno why we seem not to value science for all our "we value science" bs seems like we really value finance and debt.
I know you don't go into science careers for the money but c'mon !
besides we don't even seem to be creating that many research jobs compared to places like Singapore.
As I've often pointed out, lots of older professional people qualified while training, rather than going to university first.
My recollection is that the wider surveys across all voters did not have a large majority of voters expecting a majority Conservative Govt, two months before GE.
As a comparison in March 2015 only 20% of Conservative members expected a majority Conservative government. In April 2016 only 25% of them expect us to LEAVE the EU.
Hi Sunil, advise please. I know i'm going to finish my degree in biochem and want (hopefully a career in research) but is it worth it? I mean doing a degree, then possibly a masters then a Phd for a stripend of what £20k if you're lucky? I dunno why we seem not to value science for all our "we value science" bs seems like we really value finance and debt.
I know you don't go into science careers for the money but c'mon !
besides we don't even seem to be creating that many research jobs compared to places like Singapore.
I'll send you a private message via this website within the next few hours. Watch this space
Clinton 49 .. Trump 36
Clinton 48 .. Cruz 39
http://www.capitalnewyork.com/article/florida/2016/05/8598048/florida-poll-republican-brand-damage-bolsters-clinton
* I personally spent 20 years in the bubble....
ICM said:
"ICM’s final “wisdom of crowds index” – respondents’ averaged best guess of how each party will score – continues to put the Tories ahead on 35%, compared to 32% Labour. Voters also envisage the Lib Dems on 14%, ahead of Ukip on 10%, all figures that are unchanged from the provisional data."
Stand by...
1 retweet 4 likes
Burnley Labour councillor Shah Hussain has been suspended for tweeting to the Israeli footballer Yossi Benayoun that “you and your country doing the same thing that hitler did to ur race in ww2”.
http://order-order.com/2016/05/02/third-labour-councillor-suspended-over-hitler-tweet/
Drip, drip, drip.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/05/02/turkey-expected-to-get-eu-travel-even-if-key-conditions-not-met/
But then became a management consultant - does that cancel it out?
http://order-order.com/2016/05/02/third-labour-councillor-suspended-over-hitler-tweet/
Roger, you were saying?
Cllr Hussain tells Guido that he has not been “formally informed” of his suspension but confirms Labour have been in touch and that he believes he will be suspended pending the outcome of an investigation. That’s three Labour councillors booted out in five hours…
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-nottinghamshire-36185694
Only the first two councillors mentioned, - but then it is a bank holiday
"Labour suspends Israel row councillors"
I am just unconvinced by the general line that the 'phones are right, the net is wrong in the context of this referendum, the reason being that a third of the voting electorate are neither Tory or Labour.
Trump 44 .. Cruz 27 .. Kasich 9
http://gravismarketing.com/polling-and-market-research/current-indiana-polling/
suspendedsmeared Labourites.The 19-year-old from Jarrow has a motif of the Olympic rings on the left side of his chest, which breaches advertising regulations.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/disability-sport/36187114
I thought a huge number of athlete have got similar tattoo as a symbol they have competed at the Olympics. It is hardly having your body plastered with "Just Do It" complete with Nike swoosh.
Calling the Bedford Bonkers Baldy .....
Genuine question.
Guido Guido Guido Guido Guido...
Clinton 45 Trump 42
Clinton 44 Cruz 35
Clinton 41 Kasich 43
Sanders 45 Trump 41
Sanders 44 Cruz 35
Sanders 37 Kasich 47
http://ourinsight.opinium.co.uk/sites/ourinsight.opinium.co.uk/files/vi_tables_26_04_2016_final.pdf
As It Stands Table
1 Burnley P 45.. GD 33 .. Pts 88
2 Middlesbrough P45 .. GD 32 .. Pts 88
3 Brighton P 45 .. GD 30 .. Pts 88
As tight as TSE on a cheap night out ....
Could those who think they're uncovering another anti Semite please take note. They sound like morons. It's time Corbyn and his junta stopped joining the hunt and started to engage their brains and remind everyone that the Labour Party still believes in free speech.How many weeks ago was it since we were all CHARLIE?
Ouch the Florida polls down thread @ 4.27pm
No pain no gain.
“Hate crime is being inflamed and stoked by the words that Donald Trump is using,” she said. “I draw the line of freedom of speech when it actually invites violent ideology which is what I feel is happening ...
“If legislation has been practised before and other people stopped from coming into the country, the same rules need to apply to Donald Trump, which is why I feel he should not have been given a visa to visit the multicultural country that we are so proud of.”
And fail, again.
It sticks in their craw that Israel is a relatively successful nation state and the wider Jewish population a successful group in global terms.
It's envy straight from the victimhood playbook.
"I'm sorry but I don't sell potatoes. I'm a mohel"
"Well why the Hell have you got potatoes in your window?"
"Well what do you want me to have in my window?"
There is a huge pile of evidence about what has been going on in Labour circles for years.
This web site
http://hurryupharry.org/
Is a web site generally for left of centre issues but who look at Islamist issues and those that relate to hatred of Jews.
That web site has case after case documented over many years.
What seems blindingly obvious Roger I am afraid is that you just don't care about what has being going on and the direction of travel.
But presently Jezza is sitting in the Labour store window shouting "squirrel" whilst many of the shopping electorate are gazing at the firestorm on the shop floor in bemusement and disdain in equal measure.
Brussels will this week propose visa-free travel to Europe for 80m Turks.
Even better : "Decisions on visa rights for Ukraine, Georgia and Kosovo are set to be taken at the same time."
And who could cavil at "Some technical benchmarks, such as biometric passports, will be unmet... the EU moves ahead with a decision in June. "
June, eh.
It's a dream come true..
http://tinyurl.com/j48aglf
if paywalled, clear your cache
Prof Tomkins: “Had Scotland voted Yes… Alex Salmond would surely be facing calls now that he be impeached"