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  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited May 2016
    JackW said:

    AndyJS said:

    JackW said:
    Looks like it's all over for Cruz.
    Indeed.

    Ouch the Florida polls down thread @ 4.27pm
    If Trump is to win the election in November he's going to have to take states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, Ohio. I don't think he can win in Florida.
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    MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    JackW said:

    JackW said:

    Burnley 0 : 0 QPR .... HT

    As It Stands Table

    1 Burnley P 45.. GD 33 .. Pts 88
    2 Middlesbrough P45 .. GD 32 .. Pts 88
    3 Brighton P 45 .. GD 30 .. Pts 88

    Will OGH be chucking a hair dyrer at PB at full time .... but where would he find one? .... :smile:

    Very tense Jack

  • Options
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    BPR Report into GE2016 "Our conclusion is that the primary cause of the polling miss was unrepresentative samples. The methods the pollsters used to collect samples of voters systematically over-represented Labour supporters and under-represented Conservative supporters. The statistical adjustment procedures applied to the raw data did not mitigate this basic problem to any notable degree."

    The question is whether the polling companies have correctly adjusted for these errors?
    The party that was over represented was Labour voters. Labour voters are estimated to be voting for REMAIN making up typically half REMAIN's predicted voters. Labour voters are estimated in at least one poll to be voting for REMAIN in ratios of up to 4:1 and have turnout levels that are IMHO unrealistically high.

    Yougov's Fieldwork: 25th - 26th April 2016 has 66% of Labour voters stating that they are a 10/10 absolutely certain to vote in the referendum.....A real WTF.

    By comparison Conservative voters were under represented and are forecast to be slightly in favour of LEAVE.

    Too many labour voters, particularly the young = suspect polls.

    Opinium has 43% of Tory voters voting Remain, 45% Leave, 59% of Labour voters voting Remain, 28% Leave, .....
    http://ourinsight.opinium.co.uk/sites/ourinsight.opinium.co.uk/files/vi_tables_26_04_2016_final.pdf
    A 67% 10/10 certainty to vote for Labour voters in the coming referendum is just too high. At best it should be not much more than 50% Labour at a 10/10 certainty to vote.
    Why? If Labour voters voted in 2015 why should they not vote in the referendum? Opinium already factors in Labour voters as turning out less than Tory voters, at 73%, LD voters at 71% and UKIP voters at 85% anyway
    1. Labour voters turnout even lower in local elections etc than GEs.
    2. Labour voters have more younger voters than the Conservatives and younger voters turn out is also far far lower than the Conservatives at non-GE elections.
    3.Then there is the June 23rd date and the problem of non-registration of many university students at wherever they are living on that date....
    4. Also the relative lack of interest that Labour voters have in the referendum compared to the Conservatives.
    5. Those that wish to boycott this rather than vote for Cameron and Osborne...
  • Options
    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,703

    JackW said:

    JackW said:

    Burnley 0 : 0 QPR .... HT

    As It Stands Table

    1 Burnley P 45.. GD 33 .. Pts 88
    2 Middlesbrough P45 .. GD 32 .. Pts 88
    3 Brighton P 45 .. GD 30 .. Pts 88

    Will OGH be chucking a hair dyrer at PB at full time .... but where would he find one? .... :smile:

    Very tense Jack

    If you stop the Smoggies from going up I'll be happy!
  • Options
    Y0kelY0kel Posts: 2,307
    Roger said:

    I know lots of Jews in the UK..USA and Israel..and most of them hate the policies of their present Government..so to claim all Jews are fervent Zionists, as some Labourites are doing, is totally ludicrous

    For once you've hit the nail on the head. This Likud governent is the most racist Israeli government in living memory. An embarrassment to Jews everywhere. It's only the great unwashed -well represented on here-that are adopting such a simplistic stance because their knowledge is so limited
    Unwashed....we all got a vote the same as you. Live with it.
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    MattWMattW Posts: 18,710
    justin124 said:

    Floater said:
    I don't see how that tweet is Anti - Semitic. Whoever sent it is clearly Anti-Nazi and is condemning Israel for behaving in the same way. That is a perfectly legitimate view to hold and is in no way Anti- Semitic. Basic freedom of speech surely demands that to be so.
    And your evidence of extremination camps run by Israel is where, exactly?

    It is like the comparison Jenny Jones made between the Met and the Syrian Secref police - utterly bonkers because someone has believed their own fairy stories.

    The making of the dishonest comparison IS the antisemitism. And if they cannot see it it is the casual antisemitism.
  • Options
    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Alex Wickham
    Press Association quote Cllr Shah Hussain: "If Jewish people find it offensive they need to think about what the rest of the world thinks"
  • Options
    Impression from Sky News about Labour councillors as being full of racists.
  • Options
    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    AndyJS said:

    JackW said:

    AndyJS said:

    JackW said:
    Looks like it's all over for Cruz.
    Indeed.

    Ouch the Florida polls down thread @ 4.27pm
    If Trump is to win the election in November he's going to have to take states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, Ohio. I don't think he can win in Florida.
    Pennylvania is fools gold for the GOP and has been in several recent POTUS elections. Michigan off the table IMO. Ohio might appear a little closer but are there enough WWC in the Appalachians and other more Trump friendly areas to outweigh his colossal negatives.

    Those horrible Trump hispanic numbers in Florida are are killer and if replicated elsewhere will doom the Donald from the get-go.
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    richardDoddrichardDodd Posts: 5,472
    Roger..if you want racism..go to any Muslim country..or India..and one of the worst Wales..This odious comparison with Hitler, the Nazi Regime and its atrocities is unacceptable..When do we see the deliberate slaughter of people in extermination camps..the butchery that went on in Belsen ,Aushwitz and dozens of other killing camps. The only people who are doing an of this right now are those that .Corbyn calls his friends
  • Options
    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    JackW said:

    JackW said:

    Burnley 0 : 0 QPR .... HT

    As It Stands Table

    1 Burnley P 45.. GD 33 .. Pts 88
    2 Middlesbrough P45 .. GD 32 .. Pts 88
    3 Brighton P 45 .. GD 30 .. Pts 88

    Will OGH be chucking a hair dyrer at PB at full time .... but where would he find one? .... :smile:

    Very tense Jack

    Only a hairs breath from glory .... :sunglasses:
  • Options
    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,260
    edited May 2016
    malcolmg said:

    This is the level of Tories in Scotland, how can this donkey get a job as a professor , is it any wonder our students are useless.

    Prof Tomkins: “Had Scotland voted Yes… Alex Salmond would surely be facing calls now that he be impeached"

    Glasgow Tories going full on for the SNPouters, Nazi saluters, Regimental Blues and disillusioned Kippers.
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    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,226
    Roger said:

    I know lots of Jews in the UK..USA and Israel..and most of them hate the policies of their present Government..so to claim all Jews are fervent Zionists, as some Labourites are doing, is totally ludicrous

    For once you've hit the nail on the head. This Likud governent is the most racist Israeli government in living memory. An embarrassment to Jews everywhere. It's only the great unwashed -well represented on here-that are adopting such a simplistic stance because their knowledge is so limited
    On what basis do you say that it is an embarrassment to Jews everywhere? How do you know? Presumably it is not an embarrassment to those who voted it into power,

    You may not approve of it. I may not. But that tells us nothing about the moral decency or lack of it of British politicians.

    Those of us concerned about the views of politicians in this country are concerned about what is happening in this country. What is happening to our Jewish friends and neighbours. What is happening to the synagogues - guarded as they have never been before in my lifetime - within walking distance of my home. Not in somewhere thousands of miles away. It is those who refuse to see what is happening here who seem to be somewhat energetic in pointing at some other country and its policies either to justify what is happening here or to distract from it.


  • Options
    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    And Bedford explodes .... :smiley:
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,990
    malcolmg said:

    This is the level of Tories in Scotland, how can this donkey get a job as a professor , is it any wonder our students are useless.

    Prof Tomkins: “Had Scotland voted Yes… Alex Salmond would surely be facing calls now that he be impeached"

    Tell me about it, I mean can Presidents for Life even be impeached? :p
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    MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,067

    malcolmg said:

    This is the level of Tories in Scotland, how can this donkey get a job as a professor , is it any wonder our students are useless.

    Prof Tomkins: “Had Scotland voted Yes… Alex Salmond would surely be facing calls now that he be impeached"

    Glasgow Tories going full on for the SNPouters, Nazi saluters, Regimental Blues and disillusioned Kippers.
    It is embarassing to watch , almost as bad as watching Willie Rennie begging for votes. They really are a scurrilous lot of right bad yins.
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    Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865

    justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    I really believe that the electoral impact of Livingstone's ramblings will be small - perhaps minimal. He is very much a figure of the past and few people - beyond political anoraks - will make the direct connection with the current leadership that many assume. It will pass by most people - as the YouGov poll tended to suggest. Probably not much different in terms of electoral salience to Norman Tebbit saying something outrageous - everyone knows he belongs to a bygone age .

    Corbyn appointed Livingstone to co-convene Labour's defence review alongside Maria Eagle.
    You and I know that - most voters neither know nor care! Moreover he has been disciplined by the leadership and has always been a maverick - having already been expelled once.
    LABOUR can suspend or expel a person, but Labour can not change the thought amongst (how many) scores of its councillors and thousands of its members and voters that "Hitler wasn't a bad chap at first/ever" etc. etc.
    Not that difficult to find Tories who have been at Hitler themed parties etc.
    Heres one... Oh wait!

    https://orderorder.files.wordpress.com/2011/11/ballsnazi.jpg?w=270&h=223
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    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    North Carolina - Civitas

    Clinton 49 .. Trump 37
    Clinton 46 .. Cruz 40

    Sanders 53 .. Trump 35
    Sanders 52 .. Cruz 36

    https://www.nccivitas.org/2016/17887/
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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,067
    MikeK said:
    The Tories have that as Lord Snooty is their champion
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    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,226
    edited May 2016
    Roger said:

    Floater said:
    There is nothing anti Semitic in comparing the Israelis with the Nazis. It is an over exaggeration but so are most Hitler comparisons yet we hear them every day.
    No we don't hear Hitler comparisons every day. We really don't. We do hear of references to Hitler from people who think the only thing wrong with the Holocaust is that it did not go far enough and that it ought to be finished off. And when such people use the Holocaust or Nazis as insults against Jews they are certainly intending to be as offensive as possible, as well as ahistorical idiots and, to my mind, anti-Semitic. We have certainly seen marches on the streets of European capitals in recent years where we have heard shouts of "Death to the Jews" and "Jews to the camps". It takes a special sort of reasoning to think that such shouts and such references are not anti-Semitic.

    Labour seems to be full of such people at present. They have lost their moral compass and no amount of explanations or pointing figures at others will wash away for the rest of us the odious spectacle of a once great party having to explain why it appears to have recruited its footsoldiers from those who seem to think Der Sturmer is something to be copied rather than a warning against demonising and inciting hate against a minority group.



  • Options
    ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,017

    JackW said:

    JackW said:

    Burnley 0 : 0 QPR .... HT

    As It Stands Table

    1 Burnley P 45.. GD 33 .. Pts 88
    2 Middlesbrough P45 .. GD 32 .. Pts 88
    3 Brighton P 45 .. GD 30 .. Pts 88

    Will OGH be chucking a hair dyrer at PB at full time .... but where would he find one? .... :smile:

    Very tense Jack

    If you stop the Smoggies from going up I'll be happy!
    Only need a point now against Brighton to replace the Geordies and Mackems.
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    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    MaxPB said:
    Hilarious crosstabs from Rasmussen .... but we shouldn't be too surprised .... :smiley:
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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,067
    RobD said:

    malcolmg said:

    This is the level of Tories in Scotland, how can this donkey get a job as a professor , is it any wonder our students are useless.

    Prof Tomkins: “Had Scotland voted Yes… Alex Salmond would surely be facing calls now that he be impeached"

    Tell me about it, I mean can Presidents for Life even be impeached? :p
    He is a real turnip , Clown is taking over £60K a year under false pretences. Says he will not be able to live on MSP wage so will keep his Professorship if elected.
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    MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Y0kel said:

    Roger said:

    I know lots of Jews in the UK..USA and Israel..and most of them hate the policies of their present Government..so to claim all Jews are fervent Zionists, as some Labourites are doing, is totally ludicrous

    For once you've hit the nail on the head. This Likud governent is the most racist Israeli government in living memory. An embarrassment to Jews everywhere. It's only the great unwashed -well represented on here-that are adopting such a simplistic stance because their knowledge is so limited
    Unwashed....we all got a vote the same as you. Live with it.
    We all know now that Roger is a Self Hating Jew. If he hates his origins and himself so much, perhaps he ought to change his religion to Islam, where we see his heart is.
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    nunununu Posts: 6,024
    shiney2 said:

    Great news for one of Dave's major foreign policy objectives!

    Brussels will this week propose visa-free travel to Europe for 80m Turks.

    Even better : "Decisions on visa rights for Ukraine, Georgia and Kosovo are set to be taken at the same time."

    And who could cavil at "Some technical benchmarks, such as biometric passports, will be unmet... the EU moves ahead with a decision in June. "

    June, eh.

    It's a dream come true..


    http://tinyurl.com/j48aglf

    if paywalled, clear your cache

    Don't worry they know the ref is on 23rd of June they won't pass anything 'till 24th June.
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    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,226
    Referenced again with the faint hope that @Roger may read it - http://www.thetower.org/article/the-holocaust-the-left-and-the-return-of-hate/
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    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,260
    edited May 2016
    MikeK said:

    Y0kel said:

    Roger said:

    I know lots of Jews in the UK..USA and Israel..and most of them hate the policies of their present Government..so to claim all Jews are fervent Zionists, as some Labourites are doing, is totally ludicrous

    For once you've hit the nail on the head. This Likud governent is the most racist Israeli government in living memory. An embarrassment to Jews everywhere. It's only the great unwashed -well represented on here-that are adopting such a simplistic stance because their knowledge is so limited
    Unwashed....we all got a vote the same as you. Live with it.
    a Self Hating Jew.
    And we have a winner of the Julie Burchill/Melanie Phillips award for telling Jews what kind of Jews they have to be.
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    TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,388
    Betting post

    William Hill
    Single
    03 May 2016 - Will Donald Trump clinch Republican presidential nomination before Cleveland convention? - Yes/No
    Yes @ 1.57

    Twice the price it should be.
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    murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,042
    I'm warming to Scott_P. I know I called him a Tory bot in the run-up to the general election but he comes across as a decent bloke...
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    john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
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    justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    MattW said:

    justin124 said:

    Floater said:
    I don't see how that tweet is Anti - Semitic. Whoever sent it is clearly Anti-Nazi and is condemning Israel for behaving in the same way. That is a perfectly legitimate view to hold and is in no way Anti- Semitic. Basic freedom of speech surely demands that to be so.
    And your evidence of extremination camps run by Israel is where, exactly?

    It is like the comparison Jenny Jones made between the Met and the Syrian Secref police - utterly bonkers because someone has believed their own fairy stories.

    The making of the dishonest comparison IS the antisemitism. And if they cannot see it it is the casual antisemitism.
    But comparisons with Nazi Germany do not have to be limited to the Holocaust - which is rather what you are implying. Some might reasonably argue that Netanyahu's treatment of Palestinians is at least as bad as Nazi treatment of the Jews pre-1939.
  • Options
    TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,388
    justin124 said:

    MattW said:

    justin124 said:

    Floater said:
    I don't see how that tweet is Anti - Semitic. Whoever sent it is clearly Anti-Nazi and is condemning Israel for behaving in the same way. That is a perfectly legitimate view to hold and is in no way Anti- Semitic. Basic freedom of speech surely demands that to be so.
    And your evidence of extremination camps run by Israel is where, exactly?

    It is like the comparison Jenny Jones made between the Met and the Syrian Secref police - utterly bonkers because someone has believed their own fairy stories.

    The making of the dishonest comparison IS the antisemitism. And if they cannot see it it is the casual antisemitism.
    But comparisons with Nazi Germany do not have to be limited to the Holocaust - which is rather what you are implying. Some might reasonably argue that Netanyahu's treatment of Palestinians is at least as bad as Nazi treatment of the Jews pre-1939.
    > Some might reasonably argue that Netanyahu's treatment of Palestinians is at least as bad as Nazi treatment of the Jews pre-1939.

    Oh, right, because of course that's what these people are arguing. Definitely. Obviously.
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    taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    ''No we don't hear Hitler comparisons every day. We really don't.''

    Apart from Islamic state, I can;t think of a single country I hear being compared to the Nazis, and there are some pretty bad ones out there.
  • Options
    PongPong Posts: 4,693

    Betting post

    William Hill
    Single
    03 May 2016 - Will Donald Trump clinch Republican presidential nomination before Cleveland convention? - Yes/No
    Yes @ 1.57

    Twice the price it should be.

    Agreed.

    That's a great bet.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,333
    nunu said:

    shiney2 said:

    Great news for one of Dave's major foreign policy objectives!

    Brussels will this week propose visa-free travel to Europe for 80m Turks.

    Even better : "Decisions on visa rights for Ukraine, Georgia and Kosovo are set to be taken at the same time."

    And who could cavil at "Some technical benchmarks, such as biometric passports, will be unmet... the EU moves ahead with a decision in June. "

    June, eh.

    It's a dream come true..


    http://tinyurl.com/j48aglf

    if paywalled, clear your cache

    Don't worry they know the ref is on 23rd of June they won't pass anything 'till 24th June.
    The policy does not grant any extra travel rights to the UK, which lies outside of the Schengen zone.
  • Options
    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Last few minutes .... Will Burnley hang on for the win .... will OGH survive until the final whistle .... is RCS on hand with the defibrillator and/or champers ???? ....
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,131
    O/T - There was a Spiegel editorial at the weekend calling for Merkel to stand down at the next election to prevent the rise of AfD.
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,333
    Pong said:

    Betting post

    William Hill
    Single
    03 May 2016 - Will Donald Trump clinch Republican presidential nomination before Cleveland convention? - Yes/No
    Yes @ 1.57

    Twice the price it should be.

    Agreed.

    That's a great bet.
    Not sure I understand this one. Surely no one has clinched the nomination until the formalities that take place at convention?
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,990

    O/T - There was a Spiegel editorial at the weekend calling for Merkel to stand down at the next election to prevent the rise of AfD.

    A bit like asking Cameron to resign to prevent the rise of UKIP.
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    MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    justin124 said:

    MattW said:

    justin124 said:

    Floater said:
    I don't see how that tweet is Anti - Semitic. Whoever sent it is clearly Anti-Nazi and is condemning Israel for behaving in the same way. That is a perfectly legitimate view to hold and is in no way Anti- Semitic. Basic freedom of speech surely demands that to be so.
    And your evidence of extremination camps run by Israel is where, exactly?

    It is like the comparison Jenny Jones made between the Met and the Syrian Secref police - utterly bonkers because someone has believed their own fairy stories.

    The making of the dishonest comparison IS the antisemitism. And if they cannot see it it is the casual antisemitism.
    But comparisons with Nazi Germany do not have to be limited to the Holocaust - which is rather what you are implying. Some might reasonably argue that Netanyahu's treatment of Palestinians is at least as bad as Nazi treatment of the Jews pre-1939.
    I can imagine the fate of the Jewish population if ever an Arab army ever conquered Israel. There would be very few survivors. All Palestinian groups, including the PLO run by Abbas, have sworn to wipe Israel from the face of the earth.
  • Options
    taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    justin124 said:

    MattW said:

    justin124 said:

    Floater said:
    I don't see how that tweet is Anti - Semitic. Whoever sent it is clearly Anti-Nazi and is condemning Israel for behaving in the same way. That is a perfectly legitimate view to hold and is in no way Anti- Semitic. Basic freedom of speech surely demands that to be so.
    And your evidence of extremination camps run by Israel is where, exactly?

    It is like the comparison Jenny Jones made between the Met and the Syrian Secref police - utterly bonkers because someone has believed their own fairy stories.

    The making of the dishonest comparison IS the antisemitism. And if they cannot see it it is the casual antisemitism.
    But comparisons with Nazi Germany do not have to be limited to the Holocaust - which is rather what you are implying. Some might reasonably argue that Netanyahu's treatment of Palestinians is at least as bad as Nazi treatment of the Jews pre-1939.
    Such a comparison is ludicrous in the extreme. It's not 'reasonable' at all.
  • Options
    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,422
    Roger said:

    Floater said:
    There is nothing anti Semitic in comparing the Israelis with the Nazis. It is an over exaggeration but so are most Hitler comparisons yet we hear them every day.
    Yes, there is something anti-Semitic if Israel - the only Jewish state in the world - is the only state so condemned and when there are no reasonable grounds for doing so.

    And that's beside the enormous and presumably deliberate offence given in the first place.
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    TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,388

    Pong said:

    Betting post

    William Hill
    Single
    03 May 2016 - Will Donald Trump clinch Republican presidential nomination before Cleveland convention? - Yes/No
    Yes @ 1.57

    Twice the price it should be.

    Agreed.

    That's a great bet.
    Not sure I understand this one. Surely no one has clinched the nomination until the formalities that take place at convention?
    I assume it's >1,237 delegates. It may however be if Cruz/Kasich throw in the towel, which they probably will, but I hope not.
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    dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,290
    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    This is the level of Tories in Scotland, how can this donkey get a job as a professor , is it any wonder our students are useless.

    Prof Tomkins: “Had Scotland voted Yes… Alex Salmond would surely be facing calls now that he be impeached"

    Glasgow Tories going full on for the SNPouters, Nazi saluters, Regimental Blues and disillusioned Kippers.
    It is embarassing to watch , almost as bad as watching Willie Rennie begging for votes. They really are a scurrilous lot of right bad yins.
    Rennie was upstaged by a fucking pig.
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    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    OGH .... Oh my !! .... :smile:
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    richardDoddrichardDodd Posts: 5,472
    Oh no..football scores every minute of every weekend all next season..
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    DixieDixie Posts: 1,221
    London anecdote alert. Back from the stump. A few hours with Zac. I tell you what, perhaps for the first time, I saw passion in his eyes, anger in his words. The crowds loved it. Can he win?

    And to update the rumours, Boris/Ken delivered 38% turnout so this election was always going to be lower. Labour feared sub 35%, as low turnout apparently affects them more, but Labour are now sure it will be below that. Views are 29 to 33%. Blimey. Mad bad Diane Abbott said 28% in Labour areas on Marr. I don't know if that is specific to a borough or a constituency, but maybe true.

    Except for this neither Labour or Tory giving out any more info. Both tight lipped. Could that mean that it is close? Khan is only hitting Inner London and Zac mainly Outer. No surprise. Naming Ken on the doorstep is stiffening the Tory vote but some are voting for the b*stard Khan. Let's see.
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    MikeK said:

    justin124 said:

    MattW said:

    justin124 said:

    Floater said:
    I don't see how that tweet is Anti - Semitic. Whoever sent it is clearly Anti-Nazi and is condemning Israel for behaving in the same way. That is a perfectly legitimate view to hold and is in no way Anti- Semitic. Basic freedom of speech surely demands that to be so.
    And your evidence of extremination camps run by Israel is where, exactly?

    It is like the comparison Jenny Jones made between the Met and the Syrian Secref police - utterly bonkers because someone has believed their own fairy stories.

    The making of the dishonest comparison IS the antisemitism. And if they cannot see it it is the casual antisemitism.
    But comparisons with Nazi Germany do not have to be limited to the Holocaust - which is rather what you are implying. Some might reasonably argue that Netanyahu's treatment of Palestinians is at least as bad as Nazi treatment of the Jews pre-1939.
    I can imagine the fate of the Jewish population if ever an Arab army ever conquered Israel. There would be very few survivors. All Palestinian groups, including the PLO run by Abbas, have sworn to wipe Israel from the face of the earth.
    Even if some hadn't sworn that.
    They would rapidly recant for fear of facing the same massacre.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,146
    edited May 2016

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    BPR Report into GE2016 "Our conclusion is that the primary cause of the polling miss was unrepresentative samples. The methods the pollsters used to collect samples of voters systematically over-represented Labour supporters and under-represented Conservative supporters. The statistical adjustment procedures applied to the raw data did not mitigate this basic problem to any notable degree."

    The question is whether the polling companies have correctly adjusted for these errors?
    The party that was over represented was Labour voters. Labour voters are estimated to be voting for REMAIN making up typically half REMAIN's predicted voters. Labour voters are estimated in at least one poll to be voting for REMAIN in ratios of up to 4:1 and have turnout levels that are IMHO unrealistically high.


    Opinium has 43% of Tory voters voting Remain, 45% Leave, 59% of Labour voters voting Remain, 28% Leave, .....
    http://ourinsight.opinium.co.uk/sites/ourinsight.opinium.co.uk/files/vi_tables_26_04_2016_final.pdf
    A 67% 10/10 certainty to vote for Labour voters in the coming referendum is just too high. At best it should be not much more than 50% Labour at a 10/10 certainty to vote.
    Why? If Labour voters voted in 2015 why anyway
    1. Labour voters turnout even lower in local elections etc than GEs.
    2. Labour voters have more younger voters than the Conservatives and younger voters turn out is also far far lower than the Conservatives at non-GE elections.
    3.Then there is the June 23rd date and the problem of non-registration of many university students at wherever they are living on that date....
    4. Also the relative lack of interest that Labour voters have in the referendum compared to the Conservatives.
    5. Those that wish to boycott this rather than vote for Cameron and Osborne...

    1. This is a referendum not a local election
    2. Opinium already factors in younger voters having a lower turnout at 49%
    3. Many students will be registered to vote at their parents address if term has ended but as stated Opinium already factors in lower youth turnout
    4. Again factored in with Opinium giving Labour voters a lower turnout than Tories but with the referendum on an issue of such magnitude that does not mean they have no interest
    5. As Ashcroft's focus group of Labour voters pointed out they do not want to boost Gove and IDS just to spite Cameron and Osborne

    So as I stated the Opinium poll is highly plausible
  • Options
    taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    Dixie said:

    London anecdote alert. Back from the stump. A few hours with Zac. I tell you what, perhaps for the first time, I saw passion in his eyes, anger in his words. The crowds loved it. Can he win?

    And to update the rumours, Boris/Ken delivered 38% turnout so this election was always going to be lower. Labour feared sub 35%, as low turnout apparently affects them more, but Labour are now sure it will be below that. Views are 29 to 33%. Blimey. Mad bad Diane Abbott said 28% in Labour areas on Marr. I don't know if that is specific to a borough or a constituency, but maybe true.

    Except for this neither Labour or Tory giving out any more info. Both tight lipped. Could that mean that it is close? Khan is only hitting Inner London and Zac mainly Outer. No surprise. Naming Ken on the doorstep is stiffening the Tory vote but some are voting for the b*stard Khan. Let's see.

    Great post. Showing passion too late?
  • Options
    MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053

    justin124 said:

    MattW said:

    justin124 said:

    Floater said:
    I don't see how that tweet is Anti - Semitic. Whoever sent it is clearly Anti-Nazi and is condemning Israel for behaving in the same way. That is a perfectly legitimate view to hold and is in no way Anti- Semitic. Basic freedom of speech surely demands that to be so.
    And your evidence of extremination camps run by Israel is where, exactly?

    It is like the comparison Jenny Jones made between the Met and the Syrian Secref police - utterly bonkers because someone has believed their own fairy stories.

    The making of the dishonest comparison IS the antisemitism. And if they cannot see it it is the casual antisemitism.
    But comparisons with Nazi Germany do not have to be limited to the Holocaust - which is rather what you are implying. Some might reasonably argue that Netanyahu's treatment of Palestinians is at least as bad as Nazi treatment of the Jews pre-1939.
    > Some might reasonably argue that Netanyahu's treatment of Palestinians is at least as bad as Nazi treatment of the Jews pre-1939.

    Oh, right, because of course that's what these people are arguing. Definitely. Obviously.
    Where are all the Palestinians forced to wear Crescent badges, all the time, like Jews were forced to wear the Star of David in Nazi Germany? Your arguments are a nonsense @White_Rabbit.
  • Options
    felixfelix Posts: 15,125
    justin124 said:

    MattW said:

    justin124 said:

    Floater said:
    I don't see how that tweet is Anti - Semitic. Whoever sent it is clearly Anti-Nazi and is condemning Israel for behaving in the same way. That is a perfectly legitimate view to hold and is in no way Anti- Semitic. Basic freedom of speech surely demands that to be so.
    And your evidence of extremination camps run by Israel is where, exactly?

    It is like the comparison Jenny Jones made between the Met and the Syrian Secref police - utterly bonkers because someone has believed their own fairy stories.

    The making of the dishonest comparison IS the antisemitism. And if they cannot see it it is the casual antisemitism.
    But comparisons with Nazi Germany do not have to be limited to the Holocaust - which is rather what you are implying. Some might reasonably argue that Netanyahu's treatment of Palestinians is at least as bad as Nazi treatment of the Jews pre-1939.
    Yes -anti-Semites could well argue that.
  • Options
    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,226
    justin124 said:

    MattW said:

    justin124 said:

    Floater said:
    I don't see how that tweet is Anti - Semitic. Whoever sent it is clearly Anti-Nazi and is condemning Israel for behaving in the same way. That is a perfectly legitimate view to hold and is in no way Anti- Semitic. Basic freedom of speech surely demands that to be so.
    And your evidence of extremination camps run by Israel is where, exactly?

    It is like the comparison Jenny Jones made between the Met and the Syrian Secref police - utterly bonkers because someone has believed their own fairy stories.

    The making of the dishonest comparison IS the antisemitism. And if they cannot see it it is the casual antisemitism.
    But comparisons with Nazi Germany do not have to be limited to the Holocaust - which is rather what you are implying. Some might reasonably argue that Netanyahu's treatment of Palestinians is at least as bad as Nazi treatment of the Jews pre-1939.
    Really? Are Palestinians forbidden from studying? Or being in parks and swimming pools? Is there an official boycott of Palestinian shops? Have they been smashed up by the authorities? Are Palestinians forced to wear some special marking on their clothes? Are Israeli doctors forbidden from treating Palestinians? Is marriage or sex between Palestinians and Israelis forbidden by law?

    There are perfectly valid reasons for criticising some of the policies of the Israeli government. Two points: one should - when making such criticism - at least try to understand what they are reacting to. Those policies did not come about in a vacuum. Second, it is not necessary to reference Hitler's Germany at all in making such criticisms. Doing so suggests that the person is at least (if not more) interested in being offensive and somehow delegitimising the Israeli government or indeed the very idea of an Israeli state as in making any sort of criticism.

    It is perfectly possible to make trenchant criticism of the alleged human rights abuses of foreign countries without referring to any past war or indeed to suggest that that foreign country should not exist at all or that all of its citizens round the world or anyone sharing the religion of its majority population should somehow hang their heads in shame and be held responsible. No-one does this to Burma or to Saudi Arabia or to the Congo or to Rwanda or to Chile under Pinochet or to Argentina under the colonels or to Sri Lanka or to Iran or to any of the many many countries condemned for appalling human rights abuses. The excessive focus on and animus directed at Israel might suggest that something else is going on. If only there were a word for it......

  • Options
    TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,388
    MikeK said:

    justin124 said:

    MattW said:

    justin124 said:

    Floater said:
    I don't see how that tweet is Anti - Semitic. Whoever sent it is clearly Anti-Nazi and is condemning Israel for behaving in the same way. That is a perfectly legitimate view to hold and is in no way Anti- Semitic. Basic freedom of speech surely demands that to be so.
    And your evidence of extremination camps run by Israel is where, exactly?

    It is like the comparison Jenny Jones made between the Met and the Syrian Secref police - utterly bonkers because someone has believed their own fairy stories.

    The making of the dishonest comparison IS the antisemitism. And if they cannot see it it is the casual antisemitism.
    But comparisons with Nazi Germany do not have to be limited to the Holocaust - which is rather what you are implying. Some might reasonably argue that Netanyahu's treatment of Palestinians is at least as bad as Nazi treatment of the Jews pre-1939.
    > Some might reasonably argue that Netanyahu's treatment of Palestinians is at least as bad as Nazi treatment of the Jews pre-1939.

    Oh, right, because of course that's what these people are arguing. Definitely. Obviously.
    Where are all the Palestinians forced to wear Crescent badges, all the time, like Jews were forced to wear the Star of David in Nazi Germany? Your arguments are a nonsense @White_Rabbit.
    Sorry the ">" was me quoting justin124.

    I wasn't advancing any view, just making the obvious point that people who compare Israel to Nazi Germany definitely do not mean to draw a line between 'pre' and 'post' Holocaust Nazi Germany in the way justin124 suggests.
  • Options
    taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    edited May 2016
    MikeK said:

    justin124 said:

    MattW said:

    justin124 said:

    Floater said:
    I don't see how that tweet is Anti - Semitic. Whoever sent it is clearly Anti-Nazi and is condemning Israel for behaving in the same way. That is a perfectly legitimate view to hold and is in no way Anti- Semitic. Basic freedom of speech surely demands that to be so.
    And your evidence of extremination camps run by Israel is where, exactly?

    It is like the comparison Jenny Jones made between the Met and the Syrian Secref police - utterly bonkers because someone has believed their own fairy stories.

    The making of the dishonest comparison IS the antisemitism. And if they cannot see it it is the casual antisemitism.
    But comparisons with Nazi Germany do not have to be limited to the Holocaust - which is rather what you are implying. Some might reasonably argue that Netanyahu's treatment of Palestinians is at least as bad as Nazi treatment of the Jews pre-1939.
    > Some might reasonably argue that Netanyahu's treatment of Palestinians is at least as bad as Nazi treatment of the Jews pre-1939.

    Oh, right, because of course that's what these people are arguing. Definitely. Obviously.
    Where are all the Palestinians forced to wear Crescent badges, all the time, like Jews were forced to wear the Star of David in Nazi Germany? Your arguments are a nonsense @White_Rabbit.
    Muslim businesses smashed to pieces by gangs of thugs? Muslim property confiscated outside the rule of law? Propaganda films demonising muslims as rats?
  • Options
    TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,388
    taffys said:

    MikeK said:

    justin124 said:

    MattW said:

    justin124 said:

    Floater said:
    I don't see how that tweet is Anti - Semitic. Whoever sent it is clearly Anti-Nazi and is condemning Israel for behaving in the same way. That is a perfectly legitimate view to hold and is in no way Anti- Semitic. Basic freedom of speech surely demands that to be so.
    And your evidence of extremination camps run by Israel is where, exactly?

    It is like the comparison Jenny Jones made between the Met and the Syrian Secref police - utterly bonkers because someone has believed their own fairy stories.

    The making of the dishonest comparison IS the antisemitism. And if they cannot see it it is the casual antisemitism.
    But comparisons with Nazi Germany do not have to be limited to the Holocaust - which is rather what you are implying. Some might reasonably argue that Netanyahu's treatment of Palestinians is at least as bad as Nazi treatment of the Jews pre-1939.
    > Some might reasonably argue that Netanyahu's treatment of Palestinians is at least as bad as Nazi treatment of the Jews pre-1939.

    Oh, right, because of course that's what these people are arguing. Definitely. Obviously.
    Where are all the Palestinians forced to wear Crescent badges, all the time, like Jews were forced to wear the Star of David in Nazi Germany? Your arguments are a nonsense @White_Rabbit.
    Muslim businesses smashed to pieces by gangs of thugs? Muslim property confiscated outside the rule of law? Propaganda films demonising muslims as rats?
    See my post below - sorry.
  • Options
    weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    JackW said:

    Burnley 0 : 0 QPR .... 37 mins

    As It Stands Table

    1 Burnley P 45.. GD 33 .. Pts 88
    2 Middlesbrough P45 .. GD 32 .. Pts 88
    3 Brighton P 45 .. GD 30 .. Pts 88

    As tight as TSE on a cheap night out .... :smile:

    Remember Middlesbrough play Brighton last match of the season - winner takes all.
  • Options
    taffystaffys Posts: 9,753

    taffys said:

    MikeK said:

    justin124 said:

    MattW said:

    justin124 said:

    Floater said:
    I don't see how that tweet is Anti - Semitic. Whoever sent it is clearly Anti-Nazi and is condemning Israel for behaving in the same way. That is a perfectly legitimate view to hold and is in no way Anti- Semitic. Basic freedom of speech surely demands that to be so.
    And your evidence of extremination camps run by Israel is where, exactly?

    It is like the comparison Jenny Jones made between the Met and the Syrian Secref police - utterly bonkers because someone has believed their own fairy stories.

    The making of the dishonest comparison IS the antisemitism. And if they cannot see it it is the casual antisemitism.
    But comparisons with Nazi Germany do not have to be limited to the Holocaust - which is rather what you are implying. Some might reasonably argue that Netanyahu's treatment of Palestinians is at least as bad as Nazi treatment of the Jews pre-1939.
    > Some might reasonably argue that Netanyahu's treatment of Palestinians is at least as bad as Nazi treatment of the Jews pre-1939.

    Oh, right, because of course that's what these people are arguing. Definitely. Obviously.
    Where are all the Palestinians forced to wear Crescent badges, all the time, like Jews were forced to wear the Star of David in Nazi Germany? Your arguments are a nonsense @White_Rabbit.
    Muslim businesses smashed to pieces by gangs of thugs? Muslim property confiscated outside the rule of law? Propaganda films demonising muslims as rats?
    See my post below - sorry.
    No worries. It is astonishing that we still have make these arguments in the modern world. But there it is
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,333
    Cyclefree said:

    justin124 said:

    MattW said:

    justin124 said:

    Floater said:
    I don't see how that tweet is Anti - Semitic. Whoever sent it is clearly Anti-Nazi and is condemning Israel for behaving in the same way. That is a perfectly legitimate view to hold and is in no way Anti- Semitic. Basic freedom of speech surely demands that to be so.
    And your evidence of extremination camps run by Israel is where, exactly?

    It is like the comparison Jenny Jones made between the Met and the Syrian Secref police - utterly bonkers because someone has believed their own fairy stories.

    The making of the dishonest comparison IS the antisemitism. And if they cannot see it it is the casual antisemitism.
    But comparisons with Nazi Germany do not have to be limited to the Holocaust - which is rather what you are implying. Some might reasonably argue that Netanyahu's treatment of Palestinians is at least as bad as Nazi treatment of the Jews pre-1939.
    Really? Are Palestinians forbidden from studying? Or being in parks and swimming pools? Is there an official boycott of Palestinian shops? Have they been smashed up by the authorities? Are Palestinians forced to wear some special marking on their clothes? Are Israeli doctors forbidden from treating Palestinians? Is marriage or sex between Palestinians and Israelis forbidden by law?

    There are perfectly valid reasons for criticising some of the policies of the Israeli government. Two points: one should - when making such criticism - at least try to understand what they are reacting to. Those policies did not come about in a vacuum. Second, it is not necessary to reference Hitler's Germany at all in making such criticisms. Doing so suggests that the person is at least (if not more) interested in being offensive and somehow delegitimising the Israeli government or indeed the very idea of an Israeli state as in making any sort of criticism.

    snip

    @cyclefree "it is not necessary to reference Hitler's Germany at all in making such criticisms. Doing so suggests that the person is at least (if not more) interested in being offensive and somehow delegitimising the Israeli government or indeed the very idea of an Israeli state as in making any sort of criticism."

    Precisely. Brilliant.
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    blackburn63blackburn63 Posts: 4,492
    Being white and raised in an overwhelmingly white part of the world I have had little exposure to racism beyond the odd joke about black men's willies. About ten years ago I found myself in the Chelsea section at Wembley when Spurs were playing them in the League Cup final and witnessed first hand open and blatant anti semitism. It was extremely uncomfortable and made me wonder what it must be like to be on the receiving end of such wicked abuse.

    My sentiments lie with the millions of decent labour supporters who must be bewildered by this nonsense and I'd give a penny for Ed Miliband's thoughts right now. Although I disagree with his politics he must be shaking his head in disbelief.

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    RogerRoger Posts: 18,895
    edited May 2016
    Cyclefree said:

    Roger said:

    I know lots of Jews in the UK..USA and Israel..and most of them hate the policies of their present Government..so to claim all Jews are fervent Zionists, as some Labourites are doing, is totally ludicrous


    On what basis do you say that it is an embarrassment to Jews everywhere? How do you know? Presumably it is not an embarrassment to those who voted it into power,





    Jews throughout the world have a right of return. It's the Zionist promise and dream. All prayers say 'this year we're here next year we'll be in Israel' so to consider the diaspora doesn't have an interest in the Israeli government is just wrong. Most have family there and most come and go like other people come and go to France.

    This right wing Israeli government is piled high with racists. Even at Thatcher's most aggressive she would never have suggested a genocide in Gaza as the deputy head of the Knesset has done. So for British Jews to find them an affront to decency isn't surprising. To hear non Jews deciding when Jews should or should not feel offended is just bizarre.

    So where do Labour supporters from an ethnic minority fit in? I think you'll agree that it's been open season on second generation Pakistanis for a while now. The conclusions we've drawn about them and their homeland from the behaviour of a few rapists in Rochdale and elsewhere is racial stereotyping that would make anyone angry. That's why I give them the benefit of the doubt.

    Labour has always been at the vanguard of the fight against racism. The anti Semitism you talk of in this country is extremely limited. I've been to two boarding schools and have never seen any except the most gentle ribbing. Nothing more than suffered by the Scots or the Irish

    My Mother Synagogue was one that was apparently attacked. It was hit with a snowball one Febuary. She said it was nonsense. All synagogues have had an usher who stands outside on Saturdays and since the Munich athlete outrage in '72.
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    John_N4John_N4 Posts: 553
    Average in the five big polls with data gathered in the week before Obama's visit:
    REMAIN 49%, LEAVE 41%.

    Average in the six big polls polls with data gathered after Obama's visit:
    REMAIN 44%, LEAVE 44%

    So since Obama's intervention, what was an eight-point lead for REMAIN has been wiped out.

    Source: Wikipedia.

    What a balls-up!

    (Obama intervened on 22 April. I have disregarded the ORB poll for which data was gathered between 20 and 24 April.)
  • Options
    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,527
    What does all this mean for the EUref?

    Surely it simply makes Labour incapable of playing an effective role in the campaign?
  • Options
    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,226
    Roger said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Roger said:

    I know lots of Jews in the UK..USA and Israel..and most of them hate the policies of their present Government..so to claim all Jews are fervent Zionists, as some Labourites are doing, is totally ludicrous


    On what basis do you say that it is an embarrassment to Jews everywhere? How do you know? Presumably it is not an embarrassment to those who voted it into power,





    Jews throughout the world have a right of return. It's the Zionist promise and dream. All prayers say 'this year we're here next year we'll be in Israel' so to consider the diaspora doesn't have an interest in the Israeli government is just wrong. Most have family there and most come and go like other people come and go to France.

    This right wing Israeli government is piled high with racists. Even at Thatcher's most aggressive she would never have suggested a genocide in Gaza as the deputy head of the Knesset has done. So for British Jews to find them an affront to decency isn't surprising. To hear non Jews deciding when Jews should or should not feel offended is just bizarre.

    So where do Labour supporters from an ethnic minority fit in? I think you'll agree that it's been open season on second generation Pakistanis for a while now. The conclusions we've drawn about them and their homeland from the behaviour of a few rapists in Rochdale and elsewhere is racial stereotyping that would make anyone angry. That's why I give them the benefit of the doubt.

    Labour has always been at the vanguard of the fight against racism. The anti Semitism you talk of in this country is extremely limited. I've been to two boarding schools and have never seen any except the most gentle ribbing. Nothing more than suffered by the Scots or the Irish

    My Mother Synagogue was one that was apparently attacked. It was hit with a snowball one Febuary. She said it was nonsense. All synagogues have had an usher who stands outside on Saturdays and since the Munich athlete outrage in '72.
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,947
    Roger said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Roger said:

    I know lots of Jews in the UK..USA and Israel..and most of them hate the policies of their present Government..so to claim all Jews are fervent Zionists, as some Labourites are doing, is totally ludicrous


    On what basis do you say that it is an embarrassment to Jews everywhere? How do you know? Presumably it is not an embarrassment to those who voted it into power,





    Jews throughout the world have a right of return. It's the Zionist promise and dream. All prayers say 'this year we're here next year we'll be in Israel' so to consider the diaspora doesn't have an interest in the Israeli government is just wrong. Most have family there and most come and go like other people come and go to France.

    This right wing Israeli government is piled high with racists. Even at Thatcher's most aggressive she would never have suggested a genocide in Gaza as the deputy head of the Knesset has done. So for British Jews to find them an affront to decency isn't surprising. To hear non Jews deciding when Jews should or should not feel offended is just bizarre.

    So where do Labour supporters from an ethnic minority fit in? I think you'll agree that it's been open season on second generation Pakistanis for a while now. The conclusions we've drawn about them and their homeland from the behaviour of a few rapists in Rochdale and elsewhere is racial stereotyping that would make anyone angry. That's why I give them the benefit of the doubt.

    Labour has always been at the vanguard of the fight against racism. The anti Semitism you talk of in this country is extremely limited. I've been to two boarding schools and have never seen any except the most gentle ribbing. Nothing more than suffered by the Scots or the Irish

    My Mother Synagogue was one that was apparently attacked. It was hit with a snowball one Febuary. She said it was nonsense. All synagogues have had an usher who stands outside on Saturdays and since the Munich athlete outrage in '72.
    Your determination to excuse bad behaviour has become grotesque.
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    mattmatt Posts: 3,789
    edited May 2016
    Regardless of opinions, it's clear that some academic writing would be helpful. I strongly recommend Avi Shlaim's The Iron Wall. It gives an excellent overview of where we have come from any why. Solutions, no, but they require an open mind and those are hard to come by in the Levant.
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    midwinter said:

    FPT:


    -------------------------------

    Do you mean "casual" in the sense of not-like-Hitler-after-1932? You see, I must explain Mr Roger, that unlike quite a few-tweeting-Labour-councillors I don't regard Hitler as a hero or the holocaust as a good thing.

    Casual racism is largely generational. It is mainly found in older people with, in most cases, limited or no education. Sound like any parties core voting block?
    Well, I've got a Ph.D, and I support UKIP and Brexit. But then, several of the wisest people I know have no tertiary qualifications and, indeed, the universities contain some of our biggest idiots. I believe Orwell once said that some ideas are so stupid that only an intellectual could believe them ....
    I have a PhD too :)
    Yes, I know it's boring, but I was merely responding to a lefty's point that UKIP had no "educated" supporters.
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    ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,017
    weejonnie said:

    JackW said:

    Burnley 0 : 0 QPR .... 37 mins

    As It Stands Table

    1 Burnley P 45.. GD 33 .. Pts 88
    2 Middlesbrough P45 .. GD 32 .. Pts 88
    3 Brighton P 45 .. GD 30 .. Pts 88

    As tight as TSE on a cheap night out .... :smile:

    Remember Middlesbrough play Brighton last match of the season - winner takes all.
    After today, it's definitely advantage Boro: at home, will go up with a draw - and the psychological advantage is enhanced by the fact that earlier in the season ended Brighton's unbeaten start to the season by whacking them 3-0.
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    John_N4John_N4 Posts: 553
    edited May 2016
    I'm fed up with hearing about the phone-online difference. Or at least I will be, until someone analyses the percentages of people in the two types of sample who won't say which way they will vote, or who say that they haven't decided or won't vote. Do these figures vary significantly between phone and online? And do they vary significantly between the 2015 general election and the 2016 EU referendum? (Surely they do.)

    Any analysis of phone and online which doesn't answer those two question is of little interest.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,571
    John_N4 said:

    Average in the five big polls with data gathered in the week before Obama's visit:
    REMAIN 49%, LEAVE 41%.

    Average in the six big polls polls with data gathered after Obama's visit:
    REMAIN 44%, LEAVE 44%

    So since Obama's intervention, what was an eight-point lead for REMAIN has been wiped out.

    Source: Wikipedia.

    What a balls-up!

    (Obama intervened on 22 April. I have disregarded the ORB poll for which data was gathered between 20 and 24 April.)

    You're not really comparing like with like though are you?

    The six polls before Obama's intervention, four were phone polls, which have the largest leads for Remain, whilst the six polls afterwards, five of them were online polls, which generally have it neck and neck.
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    I see it's not just the Labour Party which has trouble with the casual anti-semitism of the Israel-is-just-like-Nazi-Germany school of thought, PB.com has trouble as well ...
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    John_N4John_N4 Posts: 553

    What does all this mean for the EUref?

    Surely it simply makes Labour incapable of playing an effective role in the campaign?

    Well the Tories don't seem to be playing an effective role either, do they? Most of the leadership wants one result, and most of the members and voters want another.

    This isn't Tory versus Labour.
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    chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    edited May 2016

    What does all this mean for the EUref?

    Surely it simply makes Labour incapable of playing an effective role in the campaign?

    Labour have spent the campaign trying to hide so that they don't have to give a view. Trying to explain to the working class how great the EU is remains a tough gig.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,146
    John_N4 said:

    What does all this mean for the EUref?

    Surely it simply makes Labour incapable of playing an effective role in the campaign?

    Well the Tories don't seem to be playing an effective role either, do they? Most of the leadership wants one result, and most of the members and voters want another.

    This isn't Tory versus Labour.
    Tory members clearly want Leave, Tory voters are split down the middle, a plurality favour Leave but not by much
  • Options
    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,226
    edited May 2016
    @Roger:-


    You appear to be quoting me below. But I have not said what you have put me down as saying. You have, I think?

    When I was growing up in the 1970s there were no guards outside synagogues. There are now. This has been a recent phenomenon. And an unwelcome one.

    Re Rochdale and elsewhere: I do not give rapists and child abusers the benefit of the doubt. There was ample evidence in case after case and official report after another that the cultural background of the defendants played a part in their atrocious crimes. It is relevant for us to know this. It is, of course, not OK to assume that all people with that background behave in that way but pretending as, for too long, we did that it it had nothing to do with it led to great pain and suffering being inflicted on the most vulnerable. And I cannot forgive those who, in the name of some idiotic multicultural creed, sought to shut down argument about and investigation into grotesque crimes against children because it might point a finger of blame against the cultural and religious attitudes of a particular group from whom one political party in particular derived votes.

    You can express your view about the Israeli government. But you do not speak for all Jews which is what you were claiming to do.

    I don't think Labour has been in the vanguard of the fight against racism for some time now. It seems to me that it uses racism as a sword to prevent scrutiny of an odious moral and cultural relativity which has led it to fail to make any distinction between the liberal and the illiberal, between the democratic and the authoritarian, between the egalitarian and the misogynist, between the socially liberal and the homophobe, between the tolerant and the intolerant.

    Labour has been living on the moral credit of its past fights against intolerance. Recent events have shown how empty that bank of moral credit now really is.
  • Options
    chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    I don't think Labour has been in the vanguard of the fight against racism for some time now. It seems to me that it uses racism as a sword to prevent scrutiny of an odious moral and cultural relativity which has led it to fail to make any distinction between the liberal and the illiberal, between the democratic and the authoritarian, between the egalitarian and the misogynist, between the socially liberal and the homophobe, between the tolerant and the intolerant.

    Labour has been living on the moral credit of its past fights against intolerance. Recent events have shown how empty that bank of moral credit now really is.
    Bravo, Ms Cyclefree.
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    On a big football day, Guido is claiming a hat-trick:

    9:30am: Guido reveals Labour councillor Ilyas Aziz’s anti-Semitic Facebook posts.

    11:01am: Aziz suspended by Labour.

    12:54pm: Guido reveals Labour councillor Salim Mulla writing “Zionist Jews are a disgrace to humanity”.

    1:26pm: Mulla suspended by Labour.

    4:23pm: Guido finds Labour councillor Shah Hussain comparing an Israeli footballer to Hitler.

    4:40pm: Hussain suspended by Labour.


    http://order-order.com/2016/05/02/hat-trick-of-hate-labours-bank-holiday-timeline/
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    edited May 2016
    MaxPB said:
    Overstated Romney by 4 points on average. Even worse in 'toss up' states.

    Demographics available only to platinum members.
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    blackburn63blackburn63 Posts: 4,492
    I'm not sure if it is @cyclefree or @roger saying there are guards outside synagogues but is this accurate? If so what on earth is going on and what are they guarding against?
  • Options
    blackburn63blackburn63 Posts: 4,492
    Anyway if there is a god (which incidentally there isn't) Spurs will thrash Chelsea tonight

    COYS
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
  • Options

    I'm not sure if it is @cyclefree or @roger saying there are guards outside synagogues but is this accurate? If so what on earth is going on and what are they guarding against?

    Anti Semitic attacks
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,146
    Alistair said:

    MaxPB said:
    Overstated Romney by 4 points on average. Even worse in 'toss up' states.

    Demographics available only to platinum members.
    If Rasmussen's final 2012 poll was correct Romney would have become POTUS
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    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,527

    Anyway if there is a god (which incidentally there isn't) Spurs will thrash Chelsea tonight

    COYS

    There is and it's capital 'G' to you.
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    RogerRoger Posts: 18,895
    Cyclefree said:

    @Roger:-


    You appear to be quoting me below. But I have not said what you have put me down as saying. You have, I think?

    When I was growing up in the 1970s there were no guards outside synagogues. There are now. This has been a recent phenomenon. And an unwelcome one.

    Re Rochdale and elsewhere: I do not give rapists and child abusers the benefit of the doubt. There was ample evidence in case after case and official report after another that the cultural background of the defendants played a part in their atrocious crimes. It is relevant for us to know this. It is, of course, not OK to assume that all people with that background behave in that way but pretending as, for too long, we did that it it had nothing to do with it led to great pain and suffering being inflicted on the most vulnerable. And I cannot forgive those who, in the name of some idiotic multicultural creed, sought to shut down argument about and investigation into grotesque crimes against children because it might point a finger of blame against the cultural and religious attitudes of a particular group from whom one political party in particular derived votes.

    You can express your view about the Israeli government. But you do not speak for all Jews which is what you were claiming to do.

    I don't think Labour has been in the vanguard of the fight against racism for some time now. It seems to me that it uses racism as a sword to prevent scrutiny of an odious moral and cultural relativity which has led it to fail to make any distinction between the liberal and the illiberal, between the democratic and the authoritarian, between the egalitarian and the misogynist, between the socially liberal and the homophobe, between the tolerant and the intolerant.

    Labour has been living on the moral credit of its past fights against intolerance. Recent events have shown how empty that bank of moral credit now really is.

    Sorry I pressed the quote button and it was too long so I deleted a few paragraphs and it then credited you with my scribble. A pity really because it was written hurriedly as I had to go out. I'll read your reply now.
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    blackburn63blackburn63 Posts: 4,492

    I'm not sure if it is @cyclefree or @roger saying there are guards outside synagogues but is this accurate? If so what on earth is going on and what are they guarding against?

    Anti Semitic attacks
    By who?
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    DixieDixie Posts: 1,221
    chestnut said:

    I don't think Labour has been in the vanguard of the fight against racism for some time now. It seems to me that it uses racism as a sword to prevent scrutiny of an odious moral and cultural relativity which has led it to fail to make any distinction between the liberal and the illiberal, between the democratic and the authoritarian, between the egalitarian and the misogynist, between the socially liberal and the homophobe, between the tolerant and the intolerant.

    Labour has been living on the moral credit of its past fights against intolerance. Recent events have shown how empty that bank of moral credit now really is.
    Bravo, Ms Cyclefree.

    absolutely spot on
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    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,226

    I'm not sure if it is @cyclefree or @roger saying there are guards outside synagogues but is this accurate? If so what on earth is going on and what are they guarding against?

    It is me and I have seen it outside two synagogues near where I live and the Jewish cultural centre in North London. I have also taken my children to barmitzvahs where there were guards and we needed our bags searched, something I have never encountered at any other religious service anywhere in the world.

    What are they guarding against? Well look at the increases in recent years on Jews and Jewish places of worship, entertainment, graves etc. Here is a minority population which has reasons to be fearful of attacks from those who wish it ill. I - for one - find that shameful, utterly shameful, and unacceptable in 21st century Britain.

    My father, a Squadron Leader in the RAF during WW2, and a doctor was in Belsen working at the end of the war to try and save who he could. He told me it was the worst sight he had ever seen and he hoped that never again would such things happen. And yet barely streets from where we grew up in peaceful quiet North London Jewish people, many of them descended from Holocaust survivors or those who managed to get out of Germany in time (as my best friend's parents did) are having to go to places of worship and entertainment past guards.

    Britain in 2016. It is shaming.

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    DixieDixie Posts: 1,221
    taffys said:

    Dixie said:

    London anecdote alert. Back from the stump. A few hours with Zac. I tell you what, perhaps for the first time, I saw passion in his eyes, anger in his words. The crowds loved it. Can he win?

    And to update the rumours, Boris/Ken delivered 38% turnout so this election was always going to be lower. Labour feared sub 35%, as low turnout apparently affects them more, but Labour are now sure it will be below that. Views are 29 to 33%. Blimey. Mad bad Diane Abbott said 28% in Labour areas on Marr. I don't know if that is specific to a borough or a constituency, but maybe true.

    Except for this neither Labour or Tory giving out any more info. Both tight lipped. Could that mean that it is close? Khan is only hitting Inner London and Zac mainly Outer. No surprise. Naming Ken on the doorstep is stiffening the Tory vote but some are voting for the b*stard Khan. Let's see.

    Great post. Showing passion too late?
    Old Etonians need to skirt with danger before delivering. Cameron was the same in the GE.
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    HYUFD said:

    Alistair said:

    MaxPB said:
    Overstated Romney by 4 points on average. Even worse in 'toss up' states.

    Demographics available only to platinum members.
    If Rasmussen's final 2012 poll was correct Romney would have become POTUS
    If you remove Rasmussen polls from the Polling history of 2012 I becomes completely impossible, not just very hard, to construct a narrative about a neck and neck race.
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    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,703

    Anyway if there is a god (which incidentally there isn't) Spurs will thrash Chelsea tonight

    COYS

    There is and it's capital 'G' to you.
    Whereas the tooth fairy is fine with either lower or upper case.
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    chestnut said:

    What does all this mean for the EUref?

    Surely it simply makes Labour incapable of playing an effective role in the campaign?

    Labour have spent the campaign trying to hide so that they don't have to give a view. Trying to explain to the working class how great the EU is remains a tough gig.
    Labour trying to explain to the working class how suppressing wages through mass immigration is the right thing to do. Now please vote REMAIN they say.
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    CD13CD13 Posts: 6,351
    Ms Cyclefree,

    Well said.

    But when the new left are so convinced of their own superiority, facts won't ever matter.
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    blackburn63blackburn63 Posts: 4,492

    Anyway if there is a god (which incidentally there isn't) Spurs will thrash Chelsea tonight

    COYS

    There is and it's capital 'G' to you.
    My bad.
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    John_N4John_N4 Posts: 553
    edited May 2016
    Cyclefree said:


    Really? Are Palestinians forbidden from studying? Or being in parks and swimming pools? Is there an official boycott of Palestinian shops?

    Jews aren't allowed to sell land to Arabs.

    Jews and Arabs travel on different roads and buses on the West Bank, yes.

    Many Jews, when polled, said that they would support segregated housing and swimming pools, and that they wouldn't allow an Arab in their house.

    You can easily verify this for yourself.
    Cyclefree said:

    Have they been smashed up by the authorities?

    Heard of "price-tag" smash-ups?

    One of the characteristics of fascism, whether German or Jewish, is that the violence against the target group isn't only done by "official" agencies - it's also done by paramilitaries or other groups of violent thugs.

    Heard of exclusive-Jewish-town dwellers ("settlers" as the western media call them) and Arab olive trees? Look it up.
    Cyclefree said:

    Are Palestinians forced to wear some special marking on their clothes?

    If they have Israeli identity documents, these must specify "Arab-Christian" or "Arab-Muslim" or "Jew".
    Cyclefree said:

    Is marriage or sex between Palestinians and Israelis forbidden by law?

    There is no civil marriage in Israel, for precisely that reason.

    As for sex between Jews and Arabs, I thought it was banned in Israel, actually. Whether the law is enforced is another matter. The Jewish religion treats a Jewish man who has sex with a goy woman as if he has committed bestiality.

    Many Jewish schools in Israel use an upside-down capital T instead of "+" for addition, for reasons of Christophobia.

    Have you actually heard of the Jew-only towns in the West Bank? Western media generally refer to them as "settlements", to make them sound pioneering and heroic. Arabs aren't allowed to stay in them overnight. Compare with how parts of Russian and the Ukraine woild have looked if Germany had won WW2.
    Cyclefree said:

    Two points: one should - when making such criticism - at least try to understand what they are reacting to. Those policies did not come about in a vacuum.

    I guess you probably aren't alluding to Jewish religious racism, the portrayal (in the religion) of goyim as livestock and the portrayal (in political propaganda) of Palestine as a "land without people" before Zionist settlement took off.

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    I'm not sure if it is @cyclefree or @roger saying there are guards outside synagogues but is this accurate? If so what on earth is going on and what are they guarding against?

    Anti Semitic attacks
    By who?
    Cyclefree as always can answer far more eloquently then me.
This discussion has been closed.