I trust Opinium, it had the Tories consistently ahead prior to the election and now has Remain ahead. However Remain lead by a very narrow margin with the pollster, which is what I expect the result to be, so Inners cannot be too complacent!
When Guido asked Cllr Mulla to explain the posts, he said:
“It was probably just forwarded to me. I don’t agree with Zionism at all. I have very, very many Jewish friends.”
O'Reilly
As the Jewish population in Blackburn appears to be (from some quick googling) about fifty, I suspect that Cllr's Mulla's claim is somewhat exaggerated.
Mike's graphic makes a very compelling case. But it is worth remembering that, for any given set of facts, any number of compelling stories can be fit.
For me, the question is how sui generis are referenda, and hence how applicable are lessons learned/track records from general election polling to referendum polling. The trouble is, I doubt anyone really knows the answer to that.
'A candidate for Merseyside's police and crime commissioner was sacked by the former Serious and Organised Crime Agency (Soca), it has emerged. Tory councillor David Burgess-Joyce was "dismissed for misconduct", Soca's successor organisation the National Crime Agency (NCA) said in a statement.'
Milne ought to beg Livingstone to say something outrageous about Hitler again. He could filibuster the whole scandal by keeping the front pages to himself until the election.
If Guido keeps this up then there wont be any Labour Councillors to vote for come Thursday..
Question is, how typical are the attitudes of the suspended Labour councillors within the muslim communities they come from? You would think that had they been isolated cases posted among people who disapproved of the content, the matter would already have been dealt with.
If there is a systemic problem - and if Guido and others have the evidence - we could be looking at scores more cases.
'A candidate for Merseyside's police and crime commissioner was sacked by the former Serious and Organised Crime Agency (Soca), it has emerged. Tory councillor David Burgess-Joyce was "dismissed for misconduct", Soca's successor organisation the National Crime Agency (NCA) said in a statement.'
If Guido keeps going like this Labour are going to lose more council seats as a result of suspensions due to institutionalised racism than at the ballot box.
Roger said: » show previous quotes You only have to read PB to know the accuracy of what I've just said. Dixie yesterday talked about inviting 'communities' to the House "never the The English". Try using Cyclefree's test down thread adding 'Jewish' to 'communities'
Or 'Tory' Lewis Duckworth who is worth quoting in full "Well, most (Jews) have been here longer than other minorities, and, in contrast to muslims, they all speak English, don't have their womenfolk kitted out in bin-liners, don't send recruits to Syria, and don't require 24/7 surveillance by our security services.
This casual racism is endemic on here for no other reason than it's populated by Tories and Ukipers. Labour supporters have been standing up for minorities against the 'Dixies' and the 'Lewis Duckworths' for years.
-------------------------------
Do you mean "casual" in the sense of not-like-Hitler-after-1932? You see, I must explain Mr Roger, that unlike quite a few-tweeting-Labour-councillors I don't regard Hitler as a hero or the holocaust as a good thing.
BPR Report into GE2016 "Our conclusion is that the primary cause of the polling miss was unrepresentative samples. The methods the pollsters used to collect samples of voters systematically over-represented Labour supporters and under-represented Conservative supporters. The statistical adjustment procedures applied to the raw data did not mitigate this basic problem to any notable degree."
The question is whether the polling companies have correctly adjusted for these errors? The party that was over represented was Labour voters. Labour voters are estimated to be voting for REMAIN making up typically half REMAIN's predicted voters. Labour voters are estimated in at least one poll to be voting for REMAIN in ratios of up to 4:1 and have turnout levels that are IMHO unrealistically high.
Yougov's Fieldwork: 25th - 26th April 2016 has 66% of Labour voters stating that they are a 10/10 absolutely certain to vote in the referendum.....A real WTF.
By comparison Conservative voters were under represented and are forecast to be slightly in favour of LEAVE.
Too many labour voters, particularly the young = suspect polls.
If Guido keeps this up then there wont be any Labour Councillors to vote for come Thursday..
Question is, how typical are the attitudes of the suspended Labour councillors within the muslim communities they come from? You would think that had they been isolated cases posted among people who disapproved of the content, the matter would already have been dealt with.
If there is a systemic problem - and if Guido and others have the evidence - we could be looking at scores more cases.
There was an Independent which suggested that anti-Semitism was common currency in Bradford politics.
Has anyone asked Corbyn whether this constitutes a crisis yet? And if not, how many suspensions would do?
A crisis is when the door he's trying to get into doesn't open after the fifth push of the doorbell.
Have to say, Ken has helped Guido no end. Before he spent hours giving interviews - it was Naz and Rupa making idiots of themselves. Even with a climbing body count of Labour councillors, it would never have gained this much traction.
I really believe that the electoral impact of Livingstone's ramblings will be small - perhaps minimal. He is very much a figure of the past and few people - beyond political anoraks - will make the direct connection with the current leadership that many assume. It will pass by most people - as the YouGov poll tended to suggest. Probably not much different in terms of electoral salience to Norman Tebbit saying something outrageous - everyone knows he belongs to a bygone age .
I really believe that the electoral impact of Livingstone's ramblings will be small - perhaps minimal. He is very much a figure of the past and few people - beyond political anoraks - will make the direct connection with the current leadership that many assume. It will pass by most people - as the YouGov poll tended to suggest. Probably not much different in terms of electoral salience to Norman Tebbit saying something outrageous - everyone knows he belongs to a bygone age .
Corbyn appointed Livingstone to co-convene Labour's defence review alongside Maria Eagle.
I really believe that the electoral impact of Livingstone's ramblings will be small - perhaps minimal. He is very much a figure of the past and few people - beyond political anoraks - will make the direct connection with the current leadership that many assume. It will pass by most people - as the YouGov poll tended to suggest. Probably not much different in terms of electoral salience to Norman Tebbit saying something outrageous - everyone knows he belongs to a bygone age .
Corbyn appointed Livingstone to co-convene Labour's defence review alongside Maria Eagle.
I really believe that the electoral impact of Livingstone's ramblings will be small - perhaps minimal. He is very much a figure of the past and few people - beyond political anoraks - will make the direct connection with the current leadership that many assume. It will pass by most people - as the YouGov poll tended to suggest. Probably not much different in terms of electoral salience to Norman Tebbit saying something outrageous - everyone knows he belongs to a bygone age .
Corbyn appointed Livingstone to co-convene Labour's defence review alongside Maria Eagle.
You and I know that - most voters neither know nor care! Moreover he has been disciplined by the leadership and has always been a maverick - having already been expelled once.
I really believe that the electoral impact of Livingstone's ramblings will be small - perhaps minimal. He is very much a figure of the past and few people - beyond political anoraks - will make the direct connection with the current leadership that many assume. It will pass by most people - as the YouGov poll tended to suggest. Probably not much different in terms of electoral salience to Norman Tebbit saying something outrageous - everyone knows he belongs to a bygone age .
Corbyn appointed Livingstone to co-convene Labour's defence review alongside Maria Eagle.
You and I know that - most voters neither know nor care! Moreover he has been disciplined by the leadership and has always been a maverick - having already been expelled once.
LABOUR can suspend or expel a person, but Labour can not change the thought amongst (how many) scores of its councillors and thousands of its members and voters that "Hitler wasn't a bad chap at first/ever" etc. etc.
I really believe that the electoral impact of Livingstone's ramblings will be small - perhaps minimal. He is very much a figure of the past and few people - beyond political anoraks - will make the direct connection with the current leadership that many assume. It will pass by most people - as the YouGov poll tended to suggest. Probably not much different in terms of electoral salience to Norman Tebbit saying something outrageous - everyone knows he belongs to a bygone age .
Corbyn appointed Livingstone to co-convene Labour's defence review alongside Maria Eagle.
You and I know that - most voters neither know nor care! Moreover he has been disciplined by the leadership and has always been a maverick - having already been expelled once.
LABOUR can suspend or expel a person, but Labour can not change the thought amongst (how many) scores of its councillors and thousands of its members and voters that "Hitler wasn't a bad chap at first/ever" etc. etc.
I will be surprised if much evidence of that emerges. Probably much easier to come up with evidence of pro Nazi sympathies in the pre-war Tory party!
It is aimed at his base, Hillary will attempt to look presidential and say she is the only serious candidate for the job
She'll aim to do that but will she be able to resist an open goal like this? Then Trump's surrogates can pile in on all the historic 'bimbo eruptions' that she suppressed.
Interestingly Hillary seemed to be testing a line that would attempt to turn attacks on Bill back against Trump by posing as the tough woman who's used to rising above the behaviour of borish men.
I really believe that the electoral impact of Livingstone's ramblings will be small - perhaps minimal. He is very much a figure of the past and few people - beyond political anoraks - will make the direct connection with the current leadership that many assume. It will pass by most people - as the YouGov poll tended to suggest. Probably not much different in terms of electoral salience to Norman Tebbit saying something outrageous - everyone knows he belongs to a bygone age .
Your comment may apply to the rest of Britain but Livingstone was the Labour candidate at the last Mayoral election only four years ago and he's still a leading political figure in the capital. London also has by far the largest Jewish population in the UK.
I really believe that the electoral impact of Livingstone's ramblings will be small - perhaps minimal. He is very much a figure of the past and few people - beyond political anoraks - will make the direct connection with the current leadership that many assume. It will pass by most people - as the YouGov poll tended to suggest. Probably not much different in terms of electoral salience to Norman Tebbit saying something outrageous - everyone knows he belongs to a bygone age .
Corbyn appointed Livingstone to co-convene Labour's defence review alongside Maria Eagle.
We can keep nuclear weapons as long as they are aimed at Israel?
I really believe that the electoral impact of Livingstone's ramblings will be small - perhaps minimal. He is very much a figure of the past and few people - beyond political anoraks - will make the direct connection with the current leadership that many assume. It will pass by most people - as the YouGov poll tended to suggest. Probably not much different in terms of electoral salience to Norman Tebbit saying something outrageous - everyone knows he belongs to a bygone age .
Corbyn appointed Livingstone to co-convene Labour's defence review alongside Maria Eagle.
You and I know that - most voters neither know nor care! Moreover he has been disciplined by the leadership and has always been a maverick - having already been expelled once.
LABOUR can suspend or expel a person, but Labour can not change the thought amongst (how many) scores of its councillors and thousands of its members and voters that "Hitler wasn't a bad chap at first/ever" etc. etc.
I will be surprised if much evidence of that emerges. Probably much easier to come up with evidence of pro Nazi sympathies in the pre-war Tory party!
You've already gone back to the 70s with this line. Do you hope to have much success with the 1930s? 1870s? 1070s?
No, I don't trust the polls one iota. My guess is that there are legions of shy Remainers out there. Leave have done one thing successfully: embed the notion that they, and they alone, are imbued with patriotism, selflessness, dignity and just a touch of naughtiness. It can be intimidating. At times even I have been reluctant to express doubts about their certainties, fearful of the virulence it will draw from their determined hearts. The question is: is my fear being shared by the population at large? In this climate of fear, many Remainers will only feel comfortable about expressing their views in the sanctuary of the polling booth. The polls must be disregarded.
I really believe that the electoral impact of Livingstone's ramblings will be small - perhaps minimal. He is very much a figure of the past and few people - beyond political anoraks - will make the direct connection with the current leadership that many assume. It will pass by most people - as the YouGov poll tended to suggest. Probably not much different in terms of electoral salience to Norman Tebbit saying something outrageous - everyone knows he belongs to a bygone age .
Corbyn appointed Livingstone to co-convene Labour's defence review alongside Maria Eagle.
You and I know that - most voters neither know nor care! Moreover he has been disciplined by the leadership and has always been a maverick - having already been expelled once.
LABOUR can suspend or expel a person, but Labour can not change the thought amongst (how many) scores of its councillors and thousands of its members and voters that "Hitler wasn't a bad chap at first/ever" etc. etc.
Not that difficult to find Tories who have been at Hitler themed parties etc.
It is aimed at his base, Hillary will attempt to look presidential and say she is the only serious candidate for the job
She'll aim to do that but will she be able to resist an open goal like this? Then Trump's surrogates can pile in on all the historic 'bimbo eruptions' that she suppressed.
Interestingly Hillary seemed to be testing a line that would attempt to turn attacks on Bill back against Trump by posing as the tough woman who's used to rising above the behaviour of borish men.
There is no doubt this election will be divided on gender lines, Trump will comfortably win men, Hillary will overwhelmingly win women
BPR Report into GE2016 "Our conclusion is that the primary cause of the polling miss was unrepresentative samples. The methods the pollsters used to collect samples of voters systematically over-represented Labour supporters and under-represented Conservative supporters. The statistical adjustment procedures applied to the raw data did not mitigate this basic problem to any notable degree."
The question is whether the polling companies have correctly adjusted for these errors? The party that was over represented was Labour voters. Labour voters are estimated to be voting for REMAIN making up typically half REMAIN's predicted voters. Labour voters are estimated in at least one poll to be voting for REMAIN in ratios of up to 4:1 and have turnout levels that are IMHO unrealistically high.
Yougov's Fieldwork: 25th - 26th April 2016 has 66% of Labour voters stating that they are a 10/10 absolutely certain to vote in the referendum.....A real WTF.
By comparison Conservative voters were under represented and are forecast to be slightly in favour of LEAVE.
Too many labour voters, particularly the young = suspect polls.
This Opinium poll is 52 Leave/ 48 Remain but weighted to reduce older female voters and bump up younger males.
The age weighted balance they have applied to 18-34 and 55 plus is at odds with Ipsos' post GE 2015 turnout findings.
I've commented a couple of times on Scotland drifting towards English norms in this vote, but it's also worth noting the lower likelihood of women (more likely than men to be Remainers) to vote.
Even if Kasich weren't in the race, Trump leads this Indiana poll by double digits https://t.co/3CFPdfzND0
It's all over bar the shouting - it would be interesting to have a thread on whom his running mate might be. Today's Times suggests that Chris Christie is a distinct possibility.
It is based on the implied conjecture that the reason the online polls overestimated Labour would be the same reason that the current online polls would be overestimating Leave, I would be interested in any plausible theories as to why that might be the case. The received wisdom is that younger voters are more leftie and more active on line, which would explain a labour boost on online polls, but we are lead to believe that young voters, particularly educated tech savvy ones are likely to be remainers.
BPR Report into GE2016 "Our conclusion is that the primary cause of the polling miss was unrepresentative samples. The methods the pollsters used to collect samples of voters systematically over-represented Labour supporters and under-represented Conservative supporters. The statistical adjustment procedures applied to the raw data did not mitigate this basic problem to any notable degree."
The question is whether the polling companies have correctly adjusted for these errors? The party that was over represented was Labour voters. Labour voters are estimated to be voting for REMAIN making up typically half REMAIN's predicted voters. Labour voters are estimated in at least one poll to be voting for REMAIN in ratios of up to 4:1 and have turnout levels that are IMHO unrealistically high.
Yougov's Fieldwork: 25th - 26th April 2016 has 66% of Labour voters stating that they are a 10/10 absolutely certain to vote in the referendum.....A real WTF.
By comparison Conservative voters were under represented and are forecast to be slightly in favour of LEAVE.
Too many labour voters, particularly the young = suspect polls.
I'm busy elsewhere today so cannot comment overmuch, but some thoughts:
1) Have the polls introduced a change post-2015 to compensate for the pre-2015 oversampled people? Are you compensating for something that has already been compensated for? 2) If you're going to mention the percentage of Lab being 10/10, you also have to mention the percentage of Con being 10/10, (and others, but let's not push it). LAB-too-high is not a problem per-se, the problem arises when you get LAB-too-high AND CON-not-too-high simultaneously 3) Is there a confounding factor at work? Would younger-vs-older give a bigger spike than LAB-vs-CON?
Do you mean "casual" in the sense of not-like-Hitler-after-1932? You see, I must explain Mr Roger, that unlike quite a few-tweeting-Labour-councillors I don't regard Hitler as a hero or the holocaust as a good thing.
Casual racism is largely generational. It is mainly found in older people with, in most cases, limited or no education. Sound like any parties core voting block?
I really believe that the electoral impact of Livingstone's ramblings will be small - perhaps minimal. He is very much a figure of the past and few people - beyond political anoraks - will make the direct connection with the current leadership that many assume. It will pass by most people - as the YouGov poll tended to suggest. Probably not much different in terms of electoral salience to Norman Tebbit saying something outrageous - everyone knows he belongs to a bygone age .
Your comment may apply to the rest of Britain but Livingstone was the Labour candidate at the last Mayoral election only four years ago and he's still a leading political figure in the capital. London also has by far the largest Jewish population in the UK.
Yes but in London I suspect people will view him as a retired maverick politician who periodically comes out with eccentric comments.Highly unlikely that they will see him as typical of the Labour party - particularly with a new candidate.
The last Euro Vote was held in 2014 and there are polls from there.
It's difficult to draw solid conclusions about the right wing position due to the Con/UKIP mix plus the pockets of smaller Independence candidates, but we do know that the popular left wing position was greatly overstated at this point.
LibLab were polling 40% as a pair, and ended up on 32%.
Remain seems most akin to the left wing position here.
If Remain can only summon a re-weighted single point lead on Opinium then it is far too close for comfort.
1) Have the polls introduced a change post-2015 to compensate for the pre-2015 oversampled people? Are you compensating for something that has already been compensated for?
There real problem is, you can't compensate for a crap sample, because you can't correct on the basis of "who they are going to vote for in the next election" which is the only correction that matters, all the other corrections (age, social group, prior voting etc) are speculatory based on your expectations of how the sample should behaved based on those criteria, which is almost certainly wrong!
I really believe that the electoral impact of Livingstone's ramblings will be small - perhaps minimal. He is very much a figure of the past and few people - beyond political anoraks - will make the direct connection with the current leadership that many assume. It will pass by most people - as the YouGov poll tended to suggest. Probably not much different in terms of electoral salience to Norman Tebbit saying something outrageous - everyone knows he belongs to a bygone age .
Do you mean "casual" in the sense of not-like-Hitler-after-1932? You see, I must explain Mr Roger, that unlike quite a few-tweeting-Labour-councillors I don't regard Hitler as a hero or the holocaust as a good thing.
Casual racism is largely generational. It is mainly found in older people with, in most cases, limited or no education. Sound like any parties core voting block?
That sounds like a nice crude generalisation. Since that parties voting block is you say full of racists, its strange that its all the Labour MPs and members that seem to be saying unpleasant things on Twitter, and that a lot of those are young.
BPR Report into GE2016 "Our conclusion is that the primary cause of the polling miss was unrepresentative samples. The methods the pollsters used to collect samples of voters systematically over-represented Labour supporters and under-represented Conservative supporters. The statistical adjustment procedures applied to the raw data did not mitigate this basic problem to any notable degree."
The question is whether the polling companies have correctly adjusted for these errors? The party that was over represented was Labour voters. Labour voters are estimated to be voting for REMAIN making up typically half REMAIN's predicted voters. Labour voters are estimated in at least one poll to be voting for REMAIN in ratios of up to 4:1 and have turnout levels that are IMHO unrealistically high.
Yougov's Fieldwork: 25th - 26th April 2016 has 66% of Labour voters stating that they are a 10/10 absolutely certain to vote in the referendum.....A real WTF.
By comparison Conservative voters were under represented and are forecast to be slightly in favour of LEAVE.
Too many labour voters, particularly the young = suspect polls.
Opinium has 43% of Tory voters voting Remain, 45% Leave, 59% of Labour voters voting Remain, 28% Leave, 68% of LD voters voting Remain, 20% Leave, 3% of UKIP voters voting Remain, 92% Leave. Overall 42% back Remain, 41% Leave. On certainty to vote it has 65% 10/10 certain to vote in the EU referendum, 8% 9/10. 18-34s are 49% 10/10 certain to vote, 55+ 78% 10/10 certain to vote. Those figures seem highly plausible to me. Scottish voters are 70% 10/10 certain to vote, English and Welsh voters 65%, Scotland also had a higher turnout at the general election too http://ourinsight.opinium.co.uk/sites/ourinsight.opinium.co.uk/files/vi_tables_26_04_2016_final.pdf
I've commented a couple of times on Scotland drifting towards English norms in this vote
Really? The Scottish only EU polls seem pretty consistent within the parameter of large to very large leads for In. The first poll of April had the In/Out gap at 18pts, one of the lowest. The last three had successive In leads of 27, 37 and 24 pts.
1) Have the polls introduced a change post-2015 to compensate for the pre-2015 oversampled people? Are you compensating for something that has already been compensated for?
There real problem is, you can't compensate for a crap sample, because you can't correct on the basis of "who they are going to vote for in the next election" which is the only correction that matters, all the other corrections (age, social group, prior voting etc) are speculatory based on your expectations of how the sample should behaved based on those criteria, which is almost certainly wrong!
You are preaching to the choir here. Panel polling just aint proper sampling.
I've commented a couple of times on Scotland drifting towards English norms in this vote
Really? The Scottish only EU polls seem pretty consistent within the parameter of large to very large leads for In. The first poll of April had the In/Out gap at 18pts, one of the lowest. The last three had successive In leads of 27, 37 and 24 pts.
I haven't seen the full Scotland ones - I'm just noticing in the subsamples that it seems to be getting closer. It may be my imagination.
1) Have the polls introduced a change post-2015 to compensate for the pre-2015 oversampled people? Are you compensating for something that has already been compensated for?
There real problem is, you can't compensate for a crap sample, because you can't correct on the basis of "who they are going to vote for in the next election" which is the only correction that matters, all the other corrections (age, social group, prior voting etc) are speculatory based on your expectations of how the sample should behaved based on those criteria, which is almost certainly wrong!
You are preaching to the choir here. Panel polling just aint proper sampling.
Way back in the day I was involved in "proper" social science surveys with face-to-face interviews of stratified random sampling over several thousand people, but that might be a touch slow for today's 24/7 media, who would rather a wrong cheap poll now, rather than a right expensive poll next week, maybe a few more prediction car crashes will make them see the error of their ways
Do you mean "casual" in the sense of not-like-Hitler-after-1932? You see, I must explain Mr Roger, that unlike quite a few-tweeting-Labour-councillors I don't regard Hitler as a hero or the holocaust as a good thing.
Casual racism is largely generational. It is mainly found in older people with, in most cases, limited or no education. Sound like any parties core voting block?
That sounds like a nice crude generalisation. Since that parties voting block is you say full of racists, its strange that its all the Labour MPs and members that seem to be saying unpleasant things on Twitter, and that a lot of those are young.
Are you suggesting that elderly white people are less racist than younger people? If so that's ludicrous.You don't have to like it but it's true and the reasons for.it are easy to understand. Wrt Labour. There's nothing casual about the anti semitic views many of their supporters hold. They are vile.
I've commented a couple of times on Scotland drifting towards English norms in this vote
Really? The Scottish only EU polls seem pretty consistent within the parameter of large to very large leads for In. The first poll of April had the In/Out gap at 18pts, one of the lowest. The last three had successive In leads of 27, 37 and 24 pts.
I haven't seen the full Scotland ones - I'm just noticing in the subsamples that it seems to be getting closer. It may be my imagination.
ICM 58-42 Opinium 60-40
Scottish subsamples, that way madness lies..
Full polls are here, quite bouncy but only in the size of In leads.
Undefined discussion subject.
Comments
http://www.nottinghampost.com/Nottingham-councillor-suspended-Labour/story-29211867-detail/story.html
Eh? So, he doesn't agree with Zionism - is that what he's trying to say?
That's me. What have I done now?
For Ben Smith though it was just one in an incredible sequence of 401 marathons in 401 days.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/get-inspired/36149576
Better get him down for the knee and hip replacements now...
... and the week yet to come.
Sky covering the Blackburn councillor. Guess the phone is now off the hook.
This week's elections should give us some sense of what is going on.
For me, the question is how sui generis are referenda, and hence how applicable are lessons learned/track records from general election polling to referendum polling. The trouble is, I doubt anyone really knows the answer to that.
'A candidate for Merseyside's police and crime commissioner was sacked by the former Serious and Organised Crime Agency (Soca), it has emerged.
Tory councillor David Burgess-Joyce was "dismissed for misconduct", Soca's successor organisation the National Crime Agency (NCA) said in a statement.'
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-merseyside-36186146
If there is a systemic problem - and if Guido and others have the evidence - we could be looking at scores more cases.
Suspensions left, far left, and hard left.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-merseyside-36186146
Roger said:
» show previous quotes
You only have to read PB to know the accuracy of what I've just said. Dixie yesterday talked about inviting 'communities' to the House "never the The English". Try using Cyclefree's test down thread adding 'Jewish' to 'communities'
Or 'Tory' Lewis Duckworth who is worth quoting in full "Well, most (Jews) have been here longer than other minorities, and, in contrast to muslims, they all speak English, don't have their womenfolk kitted out in bin-liners, don't send recruits to Syria, and don't require 24/7 surveillance by our security services.
This casual racism is endemic on here for no other reason than it's populated by Tories and Ukipers. Labour supporters have been standing up for minorities against the 'Dixies' and the 'Lewis Duckworths' for years.
-------------------------------
Do you mean "casual" in the sense of not-like-Hitler-after-1932? You see, I must explain Mr Roger, that unlike quite a few-tweeting-Labour-councillors I don't regard Hitler as a hero or the holocaust as a good thing.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-us-2016-36185012
"Labour HQ waiting for the shoe shop to drop?"
LOL
The question is whether the polling companies have correctly adjusted for these errors?
The party that was over represented was Labour voters. Labour voters are estimated to be voting for REMAIN making up typically half REMAIN's predicted voters. Labour voters are estimated in at least one poll to be voting for REMAIN in ratios of up to 4:1 and have turnout levels that are IMHO unrealistically high.
Yougov's Fieldwork: 25th - 26th April 2016 has 66% of Labour voters stating that they are a 10/10 absolutely certain to vote in the referendum.....A real WTF.
By comparison Conservative voters were under represented and are forecast to be slightly in favour of LEAVE.
Too many labour voters, particularly the young = suspect polls.
Was that your experience?
Interestingly Hillary seemed to be testing a line that would attempt to turn attacks on Bill back against Trump by posing as the tough woman who's used to rising above the behaviour of borish men.
In 2006, Salim Mulla gave a character reference in court for a paedophile.
https://t.co/k6AyJvoILV https://t.co/Ow8JwUu5to
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/100-leading-city-names-sign-letter-backing-brexit-a3236841.html
London also has by far the largest Jewish population in the UK.
Ben
Salim Mulla sent the email which compared Holocaust to Israeli occupation of Palestine to 63 colleagues. https://t.co/0MzllGJq8r
Hardly surprising, but quite possibly incorrect ...... this is not a General Election, it's a referendum and different response attitudes might apply.
The age weighted balance they have applied to 18-34 and 55 plus is at odds with Ipsos' post GE 2015 turnout findings.
I've commented a couple of times on Scotland drifting towards English norms in this vote, but it's also worth noting the lower likelihood of women (more likely than men to be Remainers) to vote.
It is based on the implied conjecture that the reason the online polls overestimated Labour would be the same reason that the current online polls would be overestimating Leave, I would be interested in any plausible theories as to why that might be the case. The received wisdom is that younger voters are more leftie and more active on line, which would explain a labour boost on online polls, but we are lead to believe that young voters, particularly educated tech savvy ones are likely to be remainers.
1) Have the polls introduced a change post-2015 to compensate for the pre-2015 oversampled people? Are you compensating for something that has already been compensated for?
2) If you're going to mention the percentage of Lab being 10/10, you also have to mention the percentage of Con being 10/10, (and others, but let's not push it). LAB-too-high is not a problem per-se, the problem arises when you get LAB-too-high AND CON-not-too-high simultaneously
3) Is there a confounding factor at work? Would younger-vs-older give a bigger spike than LAB-vs-CON?
It's difficult to draw solid conclusions about the right wing position due to the Con/UKIP mix plus the pockets of smaller Independence candidates, but we do know that the popular left wing position was greatly overstated at this point.
LibLab were polling 40% as a pair, and ended up on 32%.
Remain seems most akin to the left wing position here.
If Remain can only summon a re-weighted single point lead on Opinium then it is far too close for comfort.
http://ourinsight.opinium.co.uk/sites/ourinsight.opinium.co.uk/files/vi_tables_26_04_2016_final.pdf
Just in case anyone wondered what happens to suspended anti-semites
ICM 58-42
Opinium 60-40
ORB 56-44
So yes, effect this week? Small.
Potential effect in the weeks yet to come?
Wrt Labour. There's nothing casual about the anti semitic views many of their supporters hold. They are vile.
Full polls are here, quite bouncy but only in the size of In leads.
http://tinyurl.com/hk7rlna