The referendum is exposing the lack of talent there is in the Conservative party. Given that we are stuck with them for a fair few years, that's a bit of a worry. You certainly would not want any of their Leavers anywhere near the table in any international negotiation; while no-one on the Remain side is setting the world on fire either.
Priti Patel, Michael Gove and Dominic Raab have all been excellent.
The referendum is exposing the lack of talent there is in the Conservative party. Given that we are stuck with them for a fair few years, that's a bit of a worry. You certainly would not want any of their Leavers anywhere near the table in any international negotiation; while no-one on the Remain side is setting the world on fire either.
the Lib Dems aren't even in the game.
All 8 of them?
The number of MPs at Westminster is a function of the FPTP voting system. Lib Dems would have about 50 MPs under a PR system.
UKIP, Lib Dem and Greens are all under represented in parliament compared with the number of people voting for them.
FPTP was endorsed by the people in a referendum a few years ago.
Would you like me to do a thread on it to remind you?
The referendum is exposing the lack of talent there is in the Conservative party. Given that we are stuck with them for a fair few years, that's a bit of a worry. You certainly would not want any of their Leavers anywhere near the table in any international negotiation; while no-one on the Remain side is setting the world on fire either.
I think that is true of all our political class. Dave is the only big beast we have, we live in an age of political pygmies and yes men.
I think it's more that really able people have no great interest in being in politics.
Probably true. I actually think that is partly a phenomenon related to the EU, power has become so far removed from the people that many feel discouraged from even bothering. On this website I can think of people who would be better suited to lead the political campaign for Leave but none would get involved.
There is a lack of talent everywhere. It's the SpAd generation of golden boys and girls parachuted in without having learned any political tradecraft
This is a massive difference to previous generation of politicians, the number of long format political interviews is tiny (basically Brillo), and most of the big beasts avoid them like the plague. Compare with a few decades ago with Waldren, Robin Day, David Frost and the big name politicians queuing up to talk to them and explain their views to the public. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YZQgFRfz7Og
As someone who as been following politics for a long time (!), I can assure you that the current crop of politicians on the Conservative side is the most talented for half a century, apart from the special case of the first two Thatcher administrations.
I was quite surprised by the Sky paper reviewers and Eamonn today. Not taken in at all by back of the queue stuff, pointing out we were by far the largest EU US trader [Italy, France and somewhere added together] and bridling at the threats/wouldn't do their bidding.
It's certainly not the coup Remain think it is given the polling and anecdotally what I'm seeing in BTL comments elsewhere.
Now, is the soon-to-be ex-POTUS really telling the truth? Is he really being credible? Or is he doing Cameron's bidding?
Neither.
He is acting in US interests, that's his job. It happens to coincide with Cameron's interest, although not necessarily with the interests of the British public. The US wants the UK in the EU to moderate the French and the Germans, and to speak for them, in return for which we get the privilege of dying in their war, seems fair.
Listening to R4 a commentator claimed there was only ONE serious US trade deal currently in the pipeline ( EU ). Which means there would be a queue of 2.
Would be interesting to find out if that actually is the case. If Obama can't get the EU deal past the French and Germans then there is no actual queue.
I don't think anyone will be influenced by the back of the queue stuff. Only the most extreme nerds know anything about who we do or don't have trade deals with.
The significance of Obama's intervention is credibility. That a popular foreign leader endorsed Remain is a small plus for them and the hysterical reaction from two of the senior Leavers is likely to make undecideds question their judgement
I agree. But it also makes it harder for Leave to advance the economic argument that Brexit would not have a major effect on trade - Obama appeared to be contradicting this (even though, as you say, few people understand or care about the detail).
As a result Leave will be forced to rely more heavily on the anti-immigration argument, as Farage urged them to do yesterday. They will need to be careful to avoid creating the impression that Leave = UKIP.
The referendum is exposing the lack of talent there is in the Conservative party. Given that we are stuck with them for a fair few years, that's a bit of a worry. You certainly would not want any of their Leavers anywhere near the table in any international negotiation; while no-one on the Remain side is setting the world on fire either.
Priti Patel, Michael Gove and Dominic Raab have all been excellent.
Only to the converted - Dominic telling us we will need visas for travel in europe was unepected and will alarm many who go on holiday and travel to europe for business. Obama calling for a united europe in big speech in Hanover this morning
Sky reporting that they haven't seen the full May speech - and neither has Number 10 or Remain
I wonder what she's going to say?
FWIW I think she'll make a strong Remain case, acknowledge the EU's shortcomings/limitations, particularly on immigration, suggest it was she who tightened up Cameron's "deal" on migration, and dogwhistle that she too isn't fully happy with the EU either and might be open to further reform (including a better deal if she were PM) in future.
Mrs May doing what's in the interests of Mrs May. Never...
I don't trust her, but if she can strike the right tone and demonstrate she's more electorally popular than Gove she might become a choice for soft Leavers and mainstream Remainers to unite around in the upcoming leadership contest. It's noteworthy that No.10 haven't a clue what she's going to say and she's politically strong enough to be independent of them.
I will be reading her speech very carefully.
I want to see Osborne become leader and then watch him destroyed ala Brown.
No thanks. Osborne will destroy the country and party simultaneously, he is that much of a disaster.
May's just called for the UK to leave the European Convention on Human Rights
Are you sure ?
That's completely incompatible with "Remain" in the EU (I think). Leaving the EU is a neccessary, but not sufficient condition of leaving the ECHR.
Article 6(3) TEU: Fundamental rights, as guaranteed by the European Convention for the Protection of Human Rights and Fundamental Freedoms and as they result from the constitutional traditions common to the Member States, shall constitute general principles of the Union's law.
"Even a temporary task force would require treaty change or a new treaty. I'm a eurosceptic and I think the EU wants this, but it isn't going to be on the agenda until they push the superstate."
103 . The creation of a permanent military operational headquarters that would closely cooperate with the existing Civilian Planning and Conduct Capability (CPCC) would enhance the coherence of common defence actions.
104 . Moreover, the institutionalisation of the various European military structures (different ‘Battle Groups', Euroforces, France - United Kingdom defence cooperation, Benelux air defence cooperation, etc.) into the EU framework,and the increase of the usability of the EU battlegroups (by, inter alia, extending common financing and considering by default their deployment as an initial entry force in future crisis management scenarios ) , could further enhance ‘the EU’s defence capabilities.
105. EU - North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) cooperation at all levels in areas , such as capability development and contingency planning for hybrid threats , should be promoted and the efforts at removing the remaining political obstacles intensified
The referendum is exposing the lack of talent there is in the Conservative party. Given that we are stuck with them for a fair few years, that's a bit of a worry. You certainly would not want any of their Leavers anywhere near the table in any international negotiation; while no-one on the Remain side is setting the world on fire either.
Priti Patel, Michael Gove and Dominic Raab have all been excellent.
Only to the converted - Dominic telling us we will need visas for travel in europe was unepected and will alarm many who go on holiday and travel to europe for business. Obama calling for a united europe in big speech in Hanover this morning
I am sure there will be a milquetoast Camaroon candidate for you to vote for at the leadership elections
May's just called for the UK to leave the European Convention on Human Rights
Are you sure ?
That's completely incompatible with "Remain" in the EU (I think). Leaving the EU is a neccessary, but not sufficient condition of leaving the ECHR.
Article 6(3) TEU: Fundamental rights, as guaranteed by the European Convention for the Protection of Human Rights and Fundamental Freedoms and as they result from the constitutional traditions common to the Member States, shall constitute general principles of the Union's law.
WTF....there is no way you can be in the EU and exit that (even though they are two separate things), there is no way the EU will let you be a member of their club and at the same time leaving the ECHR.
May's just called for the UK to leave the European Convention on Human Rights
Are you sure ?
That's completely incompatible with "Remain" in the EU (I think). Leaving the EU is a neccessary, but not sufficient condition of leaving the ECHR.
Article 6(3) TEU: Fundamental rights, as guaranteed by the European Convention for the Protection of Human Rights and Fundamental Freedoms and as they result from the constitutional traditions common to the Member States, shall constitute general principles of the Union's law.
Are you quoting that in evidence of something?
Yes, it means Theresa proposal is meaningless. If the ECHR is a general principle of community law then leaving the ECHR itself is meaningless while we are still in the EU. Leaving aside that fact that the EU Charter of Fundamental Rights, is in many cases more explicit and restrictive than the ECHR and is enforced by the ECJ. To be fair Gove's British Bill of Rights would have been meaningless for the same reasons, but he knew that.
Sky reporting that they haven't seen the full May speech - and neither has Number 10 or Remain
I wonder what she's going to say?
FWIW I think she'll make a strong Remain case, acknowledge the EU's shortcomings/limitations, particularly on immigration, suggest it was she who tightened up Cameron's "deal" on migration, and dogwhistle that she too isn't fully happy with the EU either and might be open to further reform (including a better deal if she were PM) in future.
Mrs May doing what's in the interests of Mrs May. Never...
I don't trust her, but if she can strike the right tone and demonstrate she's more electorally popular than Gove she might become a choice for soft Leavers and mainstream Remainers to unite around in the upcoming leadership contest. It's noteworthy that No.10 haven't a clue what she's going to say and she's politically strong enough to be independent of them.
I will be reading her speech very carefully.
I want to see Osborne become leader and then watch him destroyed ala Brown.
No thanks. Osborne will destroy the country and party simultaneously, he is that much of a disaster.
Osborne is the only prominent Conservative who would be capable of leading the Party to defeat against Corbyn.
The referendum is exposing the lack of talent there is in the Conservative party. Given that we are stuck with them for a fair few years, that's a bit of a worry. You certainly would not want any of their Leavers anywhere near the table in any international negotiation; while no-one on the Remain side is setting the world on fire either.
There is a lack of talent everywhere. It's the SpAd generation of golden boys and girls parachuted in without having learned any political tradecraft -- speaking, persuading, campaigning. Cameron's reluctance to reshuffle probably does not help Tory recruitment either: £70k a year to be permanent lobby fodder because you didn't choose the right parents.
I'd agree with the first point. Working as a SpAd is probably very good training for a future minister but does little to prepare an MP for their job in the constituency or in the House. It's also a route which is barely open, if at all, to other than a very small minority.
However I'm not sure about your second point. One of the better aspects of this government has been the minimal reshuffles, allowing ministers to get their feet under the desks. Nor is it the case that those joining the government are simply Dave's mates. Besides, £70k is fair enough for an MP. Being a backbench MP is an important job in its own right. Members not in government have a job to do in committee, in holding the government (and others) to account, and representing their constituency.
Can a country be outside the EConvHR and inside the EU !?!
I'm asking because two of my undecided friends this is a large positive of staying within the EU. If it isn't the case then they should know. I've always assumed it is.
Agreed. The puzzle is why the polling companies do not seem to have completely implemented the lessons. What this website should do is take apart each companies numbers to help inform those that bet on the validity of these polling predictions. Yougov are the more transparent on this.
I'm finding myself looking at 10/10 numbers on the raw data from each poll and ignoring the headlines because each pollster applies it's own assumptions which may or may not have credibility....
Yes 10/10 is a start but the number of idealistic young voters saying that they are a 10/10 certainty to vote.... is just daft.
May's just called for the UK to leave the European Convention on Human Rights
Clever Theresa.
Also wrong foots Michael Gove, who keeps on talking about a British Bill of Rights to replace the ECHR, but never has.
It's certainly a ballsy move, Gove is Justice Minister and has spent most of the last year looking at this sort of stuff, if she isn't fully briefed it could come apart very fast.
The referendum is exposing the lack of talent there is in the Conservative party. Given that we are stuck with them for a fair few years, that's a bit of a worry. You certainly would not want any of their Leavers anywhere near the table in any international negotiation; while no-one on the Remain side is setting the world on fire either.
I think that is true of all our political class. Dave is the only big beast we have, we live in an age of political pygmies and yes men.
I think it's more that really able people have no great interest in being in politics.
Probably true. I actually think that is partly a phenomenon related to the EU, power has become so far removed from the people that many feel discouraged from even bothering. On this website I can think of people who would be better suited to lead the political campaign for Leave but none would get involved.
I very much doubt that's the case. The EU is an ideal forum for people with real talent to make a difference. A capable PM, foreign- or finance minister, or commissioner can exercise real power. Those with the talent to go to the top could make a lot of those opportunities.
I suspect it's more that public service is not held in the esteem it once was and that the rewards of office are not seen as being worth the hassle and effort.
May's just called for the UK to leave the European Convention on Human Rights
Clever Theresa.
And possibly clever Cameron and Osborne, of course.
Well not really since leaving the EU is probably a pre-requisite to leaving the ECHR, replacing the HRA is not the same as out and out leaving the ECHR. I don't see how this helps Remain given that in order to achieve this goal we would have to leave.
May's just called for the UK to leave the European Convention on Human Rights
Are you sure ?
That's completely incompatible with "Remain" in the EU (I think). Leaving the EU is a neccessary, but not sufficient condition of leaving the ECHR.
Article 6(3) TEU: Fundamental rights, as guaranteed by the European Convention for the Protection of Human Rights and Fundamental Freedoms and as they result from the constitutional traditions common to the Member States, shall constitute general principles of the Union's law.
Are you quoting that in evidence of something?
Yes, it means Theresa proposal is meaningless. If the ECHR is a general principle of community law then leaving the ECHR itself is meaningless while we are still in the EU. Leaving aside that fact that the EU Charter of Fundamental Rights, is in many cases more explicit and restrictive than the ECHR and is enforced by the ECJ. To be fair Gove's British Bill of Rights would have been meaningless for the same reasons, but he knew that.
May's just called for the UK to leave the European Convention on Human Rights
Clever Theresa.
And possibly clever Cameron and Osborne, of course.
I don't think they've been involved in this.
Everything I've heard and read suggests to me Theresa is her own woman.
D'Ancona was making threatening noises against her barely two weeks before she came out for Remain on behalf of the Cameroons, and James Forsyth was saying no-one had a clue what she's do in The Spectator.
I may be wrong but I think this is her own initiative.
Moving to an EU Army would require taking defence competencies away from national governments and giving it to Brussels, the chances of that happening are remote and the chances of it succeeding without a single nation wielding their veto is even more remote. They can't incrementally do this, it would have to be a big bang, defence was one of the few things that actually changed from the EU Constitution to the Lisbon Treaty in order to quell French, Dutch and British opposition. If it happens in my lifetime and the Tory party doesn't oppose it I would be very, very surprised.
I think first of all we would be asked to contribute to a temporary EU taskforce, then lead one, then the task force would get a bit bigger and its timescales would be extended, it might gain a headquarters somewhere in the EU, eventually it would be largish and permanent-ish, but by then the idea would have been around for some long it would be uncontroversial.
From the point of view of politics you may be correct, from the point of view of having an EU army it will never happen.
An army exists to fight. That requires young men in sufficient numbers prepared to join and, when push comes to a shove, put their lives on the line. The factors involved in motivating youngsters to do both are complex and across Europe the numbers prepared to do both has been in serious decline. The UK is in a better situation than most, but even we, with our regimental system, are now struggling to recruit.
What chance therefore of youngsters joining up to fight and, if necessary, to die or be maimed for the EU?
The referendum is exposing the lack of talent there is in the Conservative party. Given that we are stuck with them for a fair few years, that's a bit of a worry. You certainly would not want any of their Leavers anywhere near the table in any international negotiation; while no-one on the Remain side is setting the world on fire either.
the Lib Dems aren't even in the game.
All 8 of them?
The number of MPs at Westminster is a function of the FPTP voting system. Lib Dems would have about 50 MPs under a PR system.
UKIP, Lib Dem and Greens are all under represented in parliament compared with the number of people voting for them.
Under the Lib Dems' preferred system of STV, they'd be doing well to have more than about 25. Assuming constituencies of 5-6 (which is what STV works best in), they'd have recorded zeroes in a lot of constituencies.
As I understand it, withdrawing from ECHR involves massive changes, as lots of laws has incorporated that into and affects all sorts of legalization which are signed up to and all the way through to devolved matters. I don't see how you can do that realistically (vs technically) and still keep in line with EU directives etc.
Edit: By realistically, I also mean you might be out of ECHR, but actually continue to make laws that incorporate those principles and so effectively still abide by it.
I assume Teresa May's speech is positioning for Conservative Party leadership after the referendum and after Cameron steps down.
Do people think she is serious in getting the UK out of ECHR without leaving the EU? By the time it happens we have either voted to stay in or out, in which case it is all moot.
The referendum is exposing the lack of talent there is in the Conservative party. Given that we are stuck with them for a fair few years, that's a bit of a worry. You certainly would not want any of their Leavers anywhere near the table in any international negotiation; while no-one on the Remain side is setting the world on fire either.
the Lib Dems aren't even in the game.
All 8 of them?
The number of MPs at Westminster is a function of the FPTP voting system. Lib Dems would have about 50 MPs under a PR system.
UKIP, Lib Dem and Greens are all under represented in parliament compared with the number of people voting for them.
FPTP was endorsed by the people in a referendum a few years ago.
Would you like me to do a thread on it to remind you?
I was not objecting to the FPTP system.
Just pointing out that the number of MPs in parliament is only a measure of the voting system used not the popularity or any political party or their right to be listened to.
Agreed. The puzzle is why the polling companies do not seem to have completely implemented the lessons. What this website should do is take apart each companies numbers to help inform those that bet on the validity of these polling predictions. Yougov are the more transparent on this.
I'm finding myself looking at 10/10 numbers on the raw data from each poll and ignoring the headlines because each pollster applies it's own assumptions which may or may not have credibility....
Yes 10/10 is a start but the number of idealistic young voters saying that they are a 10/10 certainty to vote.... is just daft.
Young voters who sign up to Yougov questionnaires and answer that they have a 10/10 chance of voting, I think... will have almost 100% probability of heading to the polls.
A normal 18-25 year old who frankly has never even heard of the Daily Yougov - well their chance of heading to the polls will surely be alot lower. I'd also say the chance of 18-25 year olds who are prepared to listen to a phone interviewer and go through a detailed set of questions are probably slightly more likely to go the polling booth than those who do not.
Although a problem with all types of polling I think it is particularly acute with internet pollsters - their entire panel will be disproportionately interested in the political process.
@faisalislam: Theresa May argues for withdrawal from European Court of Human Rights and the Convention (in Strasbourg) & staying IN EU's ECJ (Luxembourg)
Leaving the ECHR is pointless after the European Courts signed us up to the Charter of Fundamental Rights despite our opt out. It just goes to prove the EU will override any treaties that stand in the way of European integration faster than you can say "but isn't there a no bailout law?"
116 . Last but not least, the Union should accede to the Convention for the Protection of Human Rights and Fundamental Freedoms (ECHR),in line with Article 6(2) TEU, and negotiations to this effect with the Council of Europe should be relaunched without delay
Again a great deal about how the Leave campaign is in dissaray (true), but where's the polling? I don't understand why no-one seems to have commissioned any polls in the wake of Obama's intervention. Why are we doing a post-mortem of how dire this week has been for Leave, when we have no polling evidence to suggest it has been?
The referendum is exposing the lack of talent there is in the Conservative party. Given that we are stuck with them for a fair few years, that's a bit of a worry. You certainly would not want any of their Leavers anywhere near the table in any international negotiation; while no-one on the Remain side is setting the world on fire either.
the Lib Dems aren't even in the game.
All 8 of them?
The number of MPs at Westminster is a function of the FPTP voting system. Lib Dems would have about 50 MPs under a PR system.
UKIP, Lib Dem and Greens are all under represented in parliament compared with the number of people voting for them.
FPTP was endorsed by the people in a referendum a few years ago.
Would you like me to do a thread on it to remind you?
I was not objecting to the FPTP system.
Just pointing out that the number of MPs in parliament is only a measure of the voting system used not the popularity or any political party or their right to be listened to.
I did a thread on a while back, some PR systems would not have helped the Lib Dems that much
As I understand it, withdrawing from ECHR involves massive changes, as lots of laws has incorporated that into and affects all sorts of legalization which are signed up to and all the way through to devolved matters. I don't see how you can do that realistically (vs technically) and still keep in line with EU directives etc.
It would at least create a crisis similar to the one Swizterland is in with its bilaterals after voting to restrict some freedom of movement.
Meanwhile, on the TTIP the FT article below illustrates again how the EU makes life difficult for the UK (specialised in services exports) in terms of commercial policy.
'One aim of the new transatlantic pact is to liberalise services trade — services ranging from banking to transport to digital music streaming are an increasingly large component of global trade
But, faced with demands from its member states, the EU has asked for more than 200 classes of services to be excluded from TTIP. Meanwhile, the US, which has claimed just four exceptions...'
They also note that if there is no deal before Obama leaves office US officials fear there won't be one until 2021...
The referendum is exposing the lack of talent there is in the Conservative party. Given that we are stuck with them for a fair few years, that's a bit of a worry. You certainly would not want any of their Leavers anywhere near the table in any international negotiation; while no-one on the Remain side is setting the world on fire either.
the Lib Dems aren't even in the game.
All 8 of them?
The number of MPs at Westminster is a function of the FPTP voting system. Lib Dems would have about 50 MPs under a PR system.
UKIP, Lib Dem and Greens are all under represented in parliament compared with the number of people voting for them.
FPTP was endorsed by the people in a referendum a few years ago.
Would you like me to do a thread on it to remind you?
I was not objecting to the FPTP system.
Just pointing out that the number of MPs in parliament is only a measure of the voting system used not the popularity or any political party or their right to be listened to.
It wasn't endorsed, it was endorsed as preferable to AV.
Free speech as long as we aren't intimidated or dislike the views of the individual. There is a world of difference between BNP or Islamic Extremists and the likes of Germaine Greer or Peter Tatchell.
F##king idiots.
Good luck to these cosseted little darlings when they hit the real world!
Again a great deal about how the Leave campaign is in dissaray (true), but where's the polling? I don't understand why no-one seems to have commissioned any polls in the wake of Obama's intervention. Why are we doing a post-mortem of how dire this week has been for Leave, when we have no polling evidence to suggest it has been?
Polls take a few day to conduct.
I took part in an Opinium poll last night.
I suspect we'll get a few polls this week.
They may also see some impact from Osborne's £4,300 figure.
I suspect it's more that public service is not held in the esteem it once was and that the rewards of office are not seen as being worth the hassle and effort.
And materially it isnt worth the hassle, when the PM makes less than a lot of middle managers of big corporations once you take into account their bonuses and options, less that many senior lawyers, senior accountants, senior bankers, senior doctors, way less than the package of directors of multinationals, but much more hassle and intrusion in one's personal life.
@faisalislam: Theresa May argues for withdrawal from European Court of Human Rights and the Convention (in Strasbourg) & staying IN EU's ECJ (Luxembourg)
Free speech as long as we aren't intimidated or dislike the views of the individual. There is a world of difference between BNP or Islamic Extremists and the likes of Germaine Greer or Peter Tatchell.
F##king idiots.
Good luck to these cosseted little darlings when they hit the real world!
They will end up like the Weird Al parody song "I'll Sue Ya".
As I understand it, withdrawing from ECHR involves massive changes, as lots of laws has incorporated that into and affects all sorts of legalization which are signed up to and all the way through to devolved matters. I don't see how you can do that realistically (vs technically) and still keep in line with EU directives etc.
Edit: By realistically, I also mean you might be out of ECHR, but actually continue to make laws that incorporate those principles and so effectively still abide by it.
No-one is suggesting that we would not abide by the principles of the ECHR. It's not the principles, it's the sometimes barmy interpretation which is the problem; the ruling on prisoners' votes was a crystal-clear example.
I suspect it's more that public service is not held in the esteem it once was and that the rewards of office are not seen as being worth the hassle and effort.
And materially it isnt worth the hassle, when the PM makes less than a lot of middle managers of big corporations once you take into account their bonuses and options, less that many senior lawyers, senior accountants, senior bankers, senior doctors, way less than the package of directors of multinationals, but much more hassle and intrusion in one's personal life.
Well Blair seems to have done all right out of it.
@faisalislam: Theresa May argues for withdrawal from European Court of Human Rights and the Convention (in Strasbourg) & staying IN EU's ECJ (Luxembourg)
Which just doesn't make any sense.
It's another dishonest performance aimed at personal advancement.
@faisalislam: Theresa May argues for withdrawal from European Court of Human Rights and the Convention (in Strasbourg) & staying IN EU's ECJ (Luxembourg)
This is about showing a bit of leg. It what Theresa thinks, it's not government policy, it's not even Remain policy, she is just spinning us a view of the world as Theresa would like it to be. Much of it will be forgotten later as impractical or just "not the right time".
@ChukaUmunna: In desperation,having promised to not run a campaign anchored by immigration,that is what Vote Leave are now doing > https://t.co/JWxrSCwIuL
@faisalislam: Theresa May argues for withdrawal from European Court of Human Rights and the Convention (in Strasbourg) & staying IN EU's ECJ (Luxembourg)
Which just doesn't make any sense.
It's an aspiration, rather than a policy, you wouldn't think there's a Tory leadership election coming up within the next few years, if not earlier.
May's just called for the UK to leave the European Convention on Human Rights
Clever Theresa.
And possibly clever Cameron and Osborne, of course.
I don't think they've been involved in this.
Everything I've heard and read suggests to me Theresa is her own woman.
D'Ancona was making threatening noises against her barely two weeks before she came out for Remain on behalf of the Cameroons, and James Forsyth was saying no-one had a clue what she's do in The Spectator.
I may be wrong but I think this is her own initiative.
I think you are right. Theresa May is in no one's camp. Rather like Hammond. One suspects they both declared for Remain out of loyalty to the PM, but could probably both have declared for Leave without too much in the way of blowback from the leadership. Hammond must be regretting not throwing his lot in with Leave given how shambolic the organisation is and how prominent he would have been, being regarded as the de facto leader ahead of Boris and Gove. He would be being talked about as the prime mover for the leadership at the moment.
Again a great deal about how the Leave campaign is in dissaray (true), but where's the polling? I don't understand why no-one seems to have commissioned any polls in the wake of Obama's intervention. Why are we doing a post-mortem of how dire this week has been for Leave, when we have no polling evidence to suggest it has been?
When I talk about who has paid for polls I get rebuked on here but it is vital to know who is paying the polling company, they need repeat business. After the GE it was unanimously agreed they were fatally discredited, I wouldn't pay too much attention.
I'm very optimistic, what else can Remain throw at Leave? Perhaps Merkel will fly over to have her say, now that would be funny.
My point is with 8 weeks to go Leave are right in there and fighting, Cameron and Osborne are becoming increasingly derided by Conservatives, it could be that they have badly misjudged this and will appear increasingly desperate.
Cool heads Leavers, Remain didn't plan on it being this close, still everything to play for.
"May's just called for the UK to leave the European Convention on Human Rights"
As I'm not on twitter and I'm not Scott, I can't find a tweet saying 'Split, split, split." so MAY I say it myself. This will split remain like a 10 on the Richter scale.
Or it's because Labour Remainers are wedded to the ECHR (well, the posh ones are), so perhaps it's a cunning plan to emphasise this. Worthy of Blackadder or even Mrs Miggins?
May's just called for the UK to leave the European Convention on Human Rights
Clever Theresa.
And possibly clever Cameron and Osborne, of course.
I don't think they've been involved in this.
Everything I've heard and read suggests to me Theresa is her own woman.
D'Ancona was making threatening noises against her barely two weeks before she came out for Remain on behalf of the Cameroons, and James Forsyth was saying no-one had a clue what she's do in The Spectator.
I may be wrong but I think this is her own initiative.
I think you are right. Theresa May is in no one's camp. Rather like Hammond. One suspects they both declared for Remain out of loyalty to the PM, but could probably both have declared for Leave without too much in the way of blowback from the leadership. Hammond must be regretting not throwing his lot in with Leave given how shambolic the organisation is and how prominent he would have been, being regarded as the de facto leader ahead of Boris and Gove. He would be being talked about as the prime mover for the leadership at the moment.
As a former Defence Secretary and current Foreign Secretary, Hammond would have brought gravitas to Leave, as well as ruining Remain's strength to be the safe, secure option
@faisalislam: Theresa May argues for withdrawal from European Court of Human Rights and the Convention (in Strasbourg) & staying IN EU's ECJ (Luxembourg)
Which just doesn't make any sense.
It's an aspiration, rather than a policy, you wouldn't think there's a Tory leadership election coming up within the next few years, if not earlier.
There are plenty of Cameron "aspirations" that we have been waiting 6 years for...and no sign we will get them by 2020...Not sure anybody believes politicians and their aspirations anymore.
@faisalislam: Theresa May argues for withdrawal from European Court of Human Rights and the Convention (in Strasbourg) & staying IN EU's ECJ (Luxembourg)
Which just doesn't make any sense.
It's an aspiration, rather than a policy, you wouldn't think there's a Tory leadership election coming up within the next few years, if not earlier.
There are plenty of Cameron "aspirations" that we have been waiting 6 years for...and no sign we will get them by 2020...Not sure anybody believes politicians and their aspirations anymore.
There were quite a few aspirations in the GE2015 manifesto which didn't make it to Christmas 2015.... whatever happened to that 3 days a year off to volunteer in the community ?
An interesting move by May. Without any time to digest this, I would suggest May is offering the vague prospect of some sort of carrot, to contrast with Osborne's stick. Leaving the ECHR (and I don't pretend to understand the ramifications fully) is one of the few things we can do unilaterally, because it's outside the EU, and I suppose it has vague resonance with the public in terms of being able to send one-eyed preachers of hate back home more easily.
It seems that this: -positions May as the annointed uniter and successor (whether the party buys her vaguely eurosceptic grunting is another matter) -Leaves the door open for some sort of cobbled together 'Vow' should things get worse polling-wise (and let's face it, despite the crowing on here, they really are pretty dire vs. expectations)
This is almost certainly my emotions talking, but it does slightly make me wonder if this slightly more 'constructive' and 'concern addressing' approach is due to private polling suggesting things not looking as they should for Remain. But I suspect it's more about an attempt to put the Tories back together after a Remain win.
May's just called for the UK to leave the European Convention on Human Rights
Clever Theresa.
And possibly clever Cameron and Osborne, of course.
I don't think they've been involved in this.
Everything I've heard and read suggests to me Theresa is her own woman.
D'Ancona was making threatening noises against her barely two weeks before she came out for Remain on behalf of the Cameroons, and James Forsyth was saying no-one had a clue what she's do in The Spectator.
I may be wrong but I think this is her own initiative.
I think you are right. Theresa May is in no one's camp. Rather like Hammond. One suspects they both declared for Remain out of loyalty to the PM, but could probably both have declared for Leave without too much in the way of blowback from the leadership. Hammond must be regretting not throwing his lot in with Leave given how shambolic the organisation is and how prominent he would have been, being regarded as the de facto leader ahead of Boris and Gove. He would be being talked about as the prime mover for the leadership at the moment.
As a former Defence Secretary and current Foreign Secretary, Hammond would have brought gravitas to Leave, as well as ruining Remain's strength to be the safe, secure option
Which is why he must be thinking of what might have been. We all know he is a BOOer and with the way the campaign to Leave is going he could easily have dragged it into the realms of credibility that Boris and Nige don't provide. Gosh would you look at that, I've just put Boris in the same bracket as Farage, just look at how far he has fallen.
another velvet zinger at Osborne, this time on his overtures to China-reality of trade with them 'dumping and industrial scale espionage' 3:31 a.m. - 25 Apr 2016
Comments
May's just called for the UK to leave the European Convention on Human Rights
so what does the Br stand for ?
Would you like me to do a thread on it to remind you?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YZQgFRfz7Og
Labour, not so much!
As a result Leave will be forced to rely more heavily on the anti-immigration argument, as Farage urged them to do yesterday. They will need to be careful to avoid creating the impression that Leave = UKIP.
Epic.
That's completely incompatible with "Remain" in the EU (I think).
Leaving the EU is a neccessary, but not sufficient condition of leaving the ECHR.
Try looking up https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Passerelle_clause - the EU treaties are self-modifying - they can do ANYTHING without a new treaty - by QMV.
103
. The creation of a permanent military operational headquarters that would closely
cooperate with the existing Civilian Planning and Conduct Capability (CPCC) would enhance
the coherence of common defence actions.
104
. Moreover, the institutionalisation of the various European military structures (different
‘Battle Groups', Euroforces, France - United Kingdom defence cooperation, Benelux air
defence cooperation, etc.) into the EU framework,and the increase of the usability of the EU
battlegroups (by, inter alia, extending common financing and considering by default their
deployment as an initial entry force in future crisis management scenarios ) , could further
enhance ‘the EU’s defence capabilities.
105.
EU - North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) cooperation at all levels in areas , such
as capability development and contingency planning for hybrid threats , should be promoted
and the efforts at removing the remaining political obstacles intensified
Turkey for Christmas, Albania for Easter.
Remain can't win when discussing migration. Even the dimmest bulb in the box knows that.
However I'm not sure about your second point. One of the better aspects of this government has been the minimal reshuffles, allowing ministers to get their feet under the desks. Nor is it the case that those joining the government are simply Dave's mates. Besides, £70k is fair enough for an MP. Being a backbench MP is an important job in its own right. Members not in government have a job to do in committee, in holding the government (and others) to account, and representing their constituency.
Sadly he has blown both his chance, and severely wounded his fellow travellers in the process.
And oh how they cheered his coming...
I'm asking because two of my undecided friends this is a large positive of staying within the EU.
If it isn't the case then they should know. I've always assumed it is.
http://researchbriefings.parliament.uk/ResearchBriefing/Summary/SN06577#fullreport
Executive summary: Maybe.
May calls it "nonsense" that Britain is too small to cope outside EU. But says q is not whether cd survive but whether better off in or out
I suspect it's more that public service is not held in the esteem it once was and that the rewards of office are not seen as being worth the hassle and effort.
Everything I've heard and read suggests to me Theresa is her own woman.
D'Ancona was making threatening noises against her barely two weeks before she came out for Remain on behalf of the Cameroons, and James Forsyth was saying no-one had a clue what she's do in The Spectator.
I may be wrong but I think this is her own initiative.
An army exists to fight. That requires young men in sufficient numbers prepared to join and, when push comes to a shove, put their lives on the line. The factors involved in motivating youngsters to do both are complex and across Europe the numbers prepared to do both has been in serious decline. The UK is in a better situation than most, but even we, with our regimental system, are now struggling to recruit.
What chance therefore of youngsters joining up to fight and, if necessary, to die or be maimed for the EU?
Edit: By realistically, I also mean you might be out of ECHR, but actually continue to make laws that incorporate those principles and so effectively still abide by it.
Do people think she is serious in getting the UK out of ECHR without leaving the EU? By the time it happens we have either voted to stay in or out, in which case it is all moot.
Just pointing out that the number of MPs in parliament is only a measure of the voting system used not the popularity or any political party or their right to be listened to.
A normal 18-25 year old who frankly has never even heard of the Daily Yougov - well their chance of heading to the polls will surely be alot lower.
I'd also say the chance of 18-25 year olds who are prepared to listen to a phone interviewer and go through a detailed set of questions are probably slightly more likely to go the polling booth than those who do not.
Although a problem with all types of polling I think it is particularly acute with internet pollsters - their entire panel will be disproportionately interested in the political process.
.
Last but not least, the Union should accede to the Convention for the Protection of
Human Rights and Fundamental Freedoms (ECHR),in line with Article 6(2) TEU, and
negotiations to this effect with the Council of Europe should be relaunched without delay
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/01/24/electoral-reform-might-not-be-the-panacea-the-left-think-it-is/
'One aim of the new transatlantic pact is to liberalise services trade — services ranging from banking to transport to digital music streaming are an increasingly large component of global trade
But, faced with demands from its member states, the EU has asked for more than 200 classes of services to be excluded from TTIP. Meanwhile, the US, which has claimed just four exceptions...'
They also note that if there is no deal before Obama leaves office US officials fear there won't be one until 2021...
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/c49b7e78-0aa2-11e6-9cd4-2be898308be3.html#axzz46pe8BeMh
If Labour had a decent leader , 2020 is there for the taking.
I took part in an Opinium poll last night.
I suspect we'll get a few polls this week.
They may also see some impact from Osborne's £4,300 figure.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=upvZdVK913I
The jury of six women and three men have been deliberating since 6 April after hearing evidence for two years.
They must agree with a majority of seven whether supporters were unlawfully killed in 1989 as part of a 14-section questionnaire.
The jury has reached unanimous conclusions for 13 of the questions.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-merseyside-36127689
Sounds like one person is disagreeing with the rest on the big question.
[George Osborne and Scott_P excluded]
I'm very optimistic, what else can Remain throw at Leave? Perhaps Merkel will fly over to have her say, now that would be funny.
My point is with 8 weeks to go Leave are right in there and fighting, Cameron and Osborne are becoming increasingly derided by Conservatives, it could be that they have badly misjudged this and will appear increasingly desperate.
Cool heads Leavers, Remain didn't plan on it being this close, still everything to play for.
Theresa May is in the Theresa May camp.
"May's just called for the UK to leave the European Convention on Human Rights"
As I'm not on twitter and I'm not Scott, I can't find a tweet saying 'Split, split, split." so MAY I say it myself. This will split remain like a 10 on the Richter scale.
Or it's because Labour Remainers are wedded to the ECHR (well, the posh ones are), so perhaps it's a cunning plan to emphasise this. Worthy of Blackadder or even Mrs Miggins?
It seems that this:
-positions May as the annointed uniter and successor (whether the party buys her vaguely eurosceptic grunting is another matter)
-Leaves the door open for some sort of cobbled together 'Vow' should things get worse polling-wise (and let's face it, despite the crowing on here, they really are pretty dire vs. expectations)
This is almost certainly my emotions talking, but it does slightly make me wonder if this slightly more 'constructive' and 'concern addressing' approach is due to private polling suggesting things not looking as they should for Remain. But I suspect it's more about an attempt to put the Tories back together after a Remain win.
Alistair Meeks, If Labour really were to poll 29% in Wales, that would be dire.
another velvet zinger at Osborne, this time on his overtures to China-reality of trade with them 'dumping and industrial scale espionage'
3:31 a.m. - 25 Apr 2016