Turkey has been an Associate Member of the EEC and its successors since 1963, which gives some indication of how glacial its progress has been towards actual membership.
Re visa travel, if a deal was agreed on visa-free travel then it should be implemented (although of course that cuts both ways - Turkey has obligations under the deal too). I don't really see the debate there.
Well I think that's a naive view of what's going on at the moment with Turkey and the EU. Erdogan knows he has the EU over a barrel and is asking for visa free travel without any chance of them holding up their side of the bargain, and he knows the EU will give in because they can't handle the 2m migrants that would be let loose into Greece.
I'd say it was much more likely that the agreement fails entirely than that one side implements it unilaterally. More likely still though is that it gets renegotiated and kicked down the line.
Ultimately though, Erdogan cannot carry on as he is doing at present. He's pissing off the Russians, the Europeans and in playing a religious game, is putting the American relationship at risk. Who'd be prepared to back him now were the chips down? His bluster is that of weakness rather than strength.
5 countries in the queue, 80m at the gate. Turkey acting as the back door for the middle east.
Turkey for Christmas, Albania for Easter.
Remain can't win when discussing migration. Even the dimmest bulb in the box knows that.
Turkey has been in the queue for generations and is moving away from meeting accession criteria - and that's before you introduce the Cyprus problem. Turkish membership is probably impossible before 2030 and unlikely before 2050 unless there's a new Ataturk who can fundamentally change the nature of the country.
So what? Cameron and Merkel are both on record within the past few weeks saying they want Turkey to join the EU/want to accelerate the process. They can hardly then complain than when a large sector of the electorate take them at their word, whether it is likely to happen in reality or not.
Maybe we could be an associate member of the EU, like Turkey.
This wouild mean free trade and visa free travel but not having to go along with the rest of the rules.
And no right to work or settle?
There are plenty of Turkish workers in Germany.
"If visa requirements are lifted completely, each of these persons could buy a cheap plane ticket to any German airport, utter the word 'asylum,' and trigger a years-long judicial process with a good chance of ending in a residency permit." — German analyst Andrew Hammel.
Aside from the nods on the ECHR and free movement, and clear insinuation she'd have got a better deal had she been in charge, most of that speech reads as a conventionally europhile argument.
It really isn't a 'europhile' argument, it's a balanced assessment explaining why she has come down on the Remain side.
It's also interesting as a manifesto to how she would approach the EU if she were to become leader, and a very encouraging one IMO.
It makes the conventional arguments on completing the single market, that our special relationship hinges on us being the US's strategic partner inside the EU, that Britain holds the balance of power in the EU between the protectionist and free trade blocs inside the EU, and all will be well if Britain leads from the front in Europe, including on reform of CFP and CAP.
Fine, if you agree, but be under no illusions she's a eurosceptic.
This actually looks more desperate than Boris now in the Con leadership manouverong.
Eh? Doesn't leaving the ECHR mean we also leave the EU?
Correct. The upside for May of keeping this on the table if Brexit is rejected is that is that the unlucky minister theoretically lumbered with the job of implementing this totally incoherent manifesto commitment is Michael Gove. If he tries to appeal to the membership on the grounds that he's closer to the way they think on the EU, May can say, "Why hasn't he got Human Rights Act repeal done yet, then?". He can't really respond that the policy is obviously bullshit...
Maybe we could be an associate member of the EU, like Turkey.
This wouild mean free trade and visa free travel but not having to go along with the rest of the rules.
And no right to work or settle?
There are plenty of Turkish workers in Germany.
"If visa requirements are lifted completely, each of these persons could buy a cheap plane ticket to any German airport, utter the word 'asylum,' and trigger a years-long judicial process with a good chance of ending in a residency permit." — German analyst Andrew Hammel.
They can pay €60 today for a Schengen visa, or an equivalent UK tourist one
This actually looks more desperate than Boris now in the Con leadership manouverong.
Eh? Doesn't leaving the ECHR mean we also leave the EU?
Correct. The upside for May of keeping this on the table if Brexit is rejected is that is that the unlucky minister theoretically lumbered with the job of implementing this totally incoherent manifesto commitment is Michael Gove. If he tries to appeal to the membership on the grounds that he's closer to the way they think on the EU, May can say, "Why hasn't he got Human Rights Act repeal done yet, then?". He can't really respond that the policy is obviously bullshit...
Except we are told the Gove will be getting a nice fat promotion after a BrRemain, so some other poor bugger will get saddled with it.
Aside from the nods on the ECHR and free movement, and clear insinuation she'd have got a better deal had she been in charge, most of that speech reads as a conventionally europhile argument.
It really isn't a 'europhile' argument, it's a balanced assessment explaining why she has come down on the Remain side.
It's also interesting as a manifesto to how she would approach the EU if she were to become leader, and a very encouraging one IMO.
It makes the conventional arguments on completing the single market, that our special relationship hinges on us being the US's strategic partner inside the EU, that Britain holds the balance of power in the EU between the protectionist and free trade blocs inside the EU, and all will be well if Britain leads from the front in Europe, including on reform of CFP and CAP.
Fine, if you agree, but be under no illusions she's a eurosceptic.
If by 'eurosceptic' you mean someone who is irrevocably committed to the UK leaving the EU, then, no she isn't. Nor is William Hague, or Phil Hammond, or for that matter David Cameron.
But that is just semantics. 'Eurosceptic' originally meant exactly what it said: someone sceptical about the EU project. By that definition, the vast majority of Conservative politicians are Eurosceptics, with a few exceptions such as Ken Clarke and Dominic Grieve.
Turkey has been in the queue for generations and is moving away from meeting accession criteria - and that's before you introduce the Cyprus problem. Turkish membership is probably impossible before 2030 and unlikely before 2050 unless there's a new Ataturk who can fundamentally change the nature of the country.
Or it will be some sort of associate member, most of the membership perks without actually being a member, it's already on the way there, and Merkel is proving adept at folding to their demands.
Turkey had to meet 30 conditions to get visa free access and... didn't come close, so it's threatening to open the borders again.
Turkey has threatened to renege on a landmark deal to curb illegal migration to the European Union if the bloc fails to grant visa-free travel to Europe for Turkey's 78 million citizens by the end of June.
If Ankara follows through on its threat, it would reopen the floodgates and allow potentially millions of migrants from Africa, Asia and the Middle East to flow from Turkey into the European Union.
I said this at the time too, it's so bleeding obvious.
Turkey has been an Associate Member of the EEC and its successors since 1963, which gives some indication of how glacial its progress has been towards actual membership.
Re visa travel, if a deal was agreed on visa-free travel then it should be implemented (although of course that cuts both ways - Turkey has obligations under the deal too). I don't really see the debate there.
Well I think that's a naive view of what's going on at the moment with Turkey and the EU. Erdogan knows he has the EU over a barrel and is asking for visa free travel without any chance of them holding up their side of the bargain, and he knows the EU will give in because they can't handle the 2m migrants that would be let loose into Greece.
You're becoming hysterical and vastly overestimating Erdogan's bargaining position.
The evidence says otherwise, it is far more likely that Europhiles are burying their heads in the sand over the EU's relationship with this disgusting individual.
Aside from the nods on the ECHR and free movement, and clear insinuation she'd have got a better deal had she been in charge, most of that speech reads as a conventionally europhile argument.
It really isn't a 'europhile' argument, it's a balanced assessment explaining why she has come down on the Remain side.
It's also interesting as a manifesto to how she would approach the EU if she were to become leader, and a very encouraging one IMO.
It makes the conventional arguments on completing the single market, that our special relationship hinges on us being the US's strategic partner inside the EU, that Britain holds the balance of power in the EU between the protectionist and free trade blocs inside the EU, and all will be well if Britain leads from the front in Europe, including on reform of CFP and CAP.
Fine, if you agree, but be under no illusions she's a eurosceptic.
If by 'eurosceptic' you mean someone who is irrevocably committed to the UK leaving the EU, then, no she isn't. Nor is William Hague, or Phil Hammond, or for that matter David Cameron.
But that is just semantics. 'Eurosceptic' originally meant exactly what it said: someone sceptical about the EU project. By that definition, the vast majority of Conservative politicians are Eurosceptics, with a few exceptions such as Ken Clarke and Dominic Grieve.
Her core arguments are the same as Cameron and Osborne's except she thinks she'd do a better job and get a better deal.
In areas such as digital economy, services and energy she's arguing for further integration, not less.
Maybe we could be an associate member of the EU, like Turkey.
This wouild mean free trade and visa free travel but not having to go along with the rest of the rules.
And no right to work or settle?
Koreans, Canadians, Americans and about 50 other countries have visa free access to chessmen l Schengen, just as we have visa free access to a similar number of countries. That is not the same as the right to live somewhere or to work there.
Aside from the nods on the ECHR and free movement, and clear insinuation she'd have got a better deal had she been in charge, most of that speech reads as a conventionally europhile argument.
It really isn't a 'europhile' argument, it's a balanced assessment explaining why she has come down on the Remain side.
It's also interesting as a manifesto to how she would approach the EU if she were to become leader, and a very encouraging one IMO.
It makes the conventional arguments on completing the single market, that our special relationship hinges on us being the US's strategic partner inside the EU, that Britain holds the balance of power in the EU between the protectionist and free trade blocs inside the EU, and all will be well if Britain leads from the front in Europe, including on reform of CFP and CAP.
Fine, if you agree, but be under no illusions she's a eurosceptic.
If by 'eurosceptic' you mean someone who is irrevocably committed to the UK leaving the EU, then, no she isn't. Nor is William Hague, or Phil Hammond, or for that matter David Cameron.
But that is just semantics. 'Eurosceptic' originally meant exactly what it said: someone sceptical about the EU project. By that definition, the vast majority of Conservative politicians are Eurosceptics, with a few exceptions such as Ken Clarke and Dominic Grieve.
I'm not quite sure when Eurosceptic had its meaning changed. The classifications used to be: Better Off Out (BOO), Eurosceptic (we don't want any more integration but broadly the current situation is acceptable), and Europhile (full speed ahead to the Euro and federalisation.
If you thought Kids Company story couldn't get any worse with stories of vulnerable adults having all expenses paid lives on the charities dime, staff having their kids sent to private schools, kids being given drugs from one of the councillors and of course the free cash hand outs....You what the...f##king what...
the Prince of Wales was also instrumental in introducing Batmanghelidjh to the possibilities of brain ‘research’ experiments – to which some vulnerable Kids’ Company children were later subjected.
In areas such as digital economy, services and energy she's arguing for further integration, not less.
Yes, and quite right too. For that matter, that's what the Leave side have been arguing for, isn't it? I thought removal of trade barriers was a key plank of the Leave case, although I'm slightly unclear now whether they want trade deals or not.
Nobody accused The Guardian of dog-whistling. Yet the Remainers threw their toys out of the pram over Boris mentioning Obama’s Kenyan heritage in his piece for the Sun last Friday, despite the fact this reasoning was widely echoed elsewhere at the time the Churchill bust in question was originally removed. Boris was just repeating what others have said without remark – could it all just have been a referendum-related kerfuffle to bash the Brexiteer-in-Chief?
Turkey has been an Associate Member of the EEC and its successors since 1963, which gives some indication of how glacial its progress has been towards actual membership.
Re visa travel, if a deal was agreed on visa-free travel then it should be implemented (although of course that cuts both ways - Turkey has obligations under the deal too). I don't really see the debate there.
Well I think that's a naive view of what's going on at the moment with Turkey and the EU. Erdogan knows he has the EU over a barrel and is asking for visa free travel without any chance of them holding up their side of the bargain, and he knows the EU will give in because they can't handle the 2m migrants that would be let loose into Greece.
I'd say it was much more likely that the agreement fails entirely than that one side implements it unilaterally. More likely still though is that it gets renegotiated and kicked down the line.
Ultimately though, Erdogan cannot carry on as he is doing at present. He's pissing off the Russians, the Europeans and in playing a religious game, is putting the American relationship at risk. Who'd be prepared to back him now were the chips down? His bluster is that of weakness rather than strength.
You say Erdogan can't carry on as normal, but why not? He's already pissed everyone off and is still winning, he's getting everything he wants from the EU, has successfully shut down criticism of himself in Germany and the Netherlands with tacit government support, he is getting everything he has asked for with no sign of dissent or even a hint of negotiation from the EU, they give in on every turn.
Does it matter if he has no backing other than that of the Turkish people, they have voted him in with a huge majority just last year and 49.5% of the vote. He is politically untouchable which is why the EU has bent over on every occasion he has asked them to do so.
His threat of flooding the EU with migrants isn't going to go away until we can resolve the situation in Syria, something that is not going to happen for a long time.
In areas such as digital economy, services and energy she's arguing for further integration, not less.
Yes, and quite right too. For that matter, that's what the Leave side have been arguing for, isn't it? I thought removal of trade barriers was a key plank of the Leave case, although I'm slightly unclear now whether they want trade deals or not.
I think we all know your views on the European Union.
5 countries in the queue, 80m at the gate. Turkey acting as the back door for the middle east.
Turkey for Christmas, Albania for Easter.
Remain can't win when discussing migration. Even the dimmest bulb in the box knows that.
Turkey has been in the queue for generations and is moving away from meeting accession criteria - and that's before you introduce the Cyprus problem. Turkish membership is probably impossible before 2030 and unlikely before 2050 unless there's a new Ataturk who can fundamentally change the nature of the country.
So what? Cameron and Merkel are both on record within the past few weeks saying they want Turkey to join the EU/want to accelerate the process. They can hardly then complain than when a large sector of the electorate take them at their word, whether it is likely to happen in reality or not.
I think that was a silly thing to say but it doesn't change the fact that it's not going to happen. Robert rightly mentioned the French referendum requirement downthread: that too is a huge bar.
Nobody accused The Guardian of dog-whistling. Yet the Remainers threw their toys out of the pram over Boris mentioning Obama’s Kenyan heritage in his piece for the Sun last Friday, despite the fact this reasoning was widely echoed elsewhere at the time the Churchill bust in question was originally removed. Boris was just repeating what others have said without remark – could it all just have been a referendum-related kerfuffle to bash the Brexiteer-in-Chief?
In areas such as digital economy, services and energy she's arguing for further integration, not less.
Yes, and quite right too. For that matter, that's what the Leave side have been arguing for, isn't it? I thought removal of trade barriers was a key plank of the Leave case, although I'm slightly unclear now whether they want trade deals or not.
I think we all know your views on the European Union.
I should hope so, I've made it clear many times that I don't like many aspects of it, wouldn't have signed Lisbon, and would like us to gently disengage from the core.
Turkey has been an Associate Member of the EEC and its successors since 1963, which gives some indication of how glacial its progress has been towards actual membership.
Re visa travel, if a deal was agreed on visa-free travel then it should be implemented (although of course that cuts both ways - Turkey has obligations under the deal too). I don't really see the debate there.
Well I think that's a naive view of what's going on at the moment with Turkey and the EU. Erdogan knows he has the EU over a barrel and is asking for visa free travel without any chance of them holding up their side of the bargain, and he knows the EU will give in because they can't handle the 2m migrants that would be let loose into Greece.
I'd say it was much more likely that the agreement fails entirely than that one side implements it unilaterally. More likely still though is that it gets renegotiated and kicked down the line.
Ultimately though, Erdogan cannot carry on as he is doing at present. He's pissing off the Russians, the Europeans and in playing a religious game, is putting the American relationship at risk. Who'd be prepared to back him now were the chips down? His bluster is that of weakness rather than strength.
You say Erdogan can't carry on as normal, but why not? He's already pissed everyone off and is still winning, he's getting everything he wants from the EU, has successfully shut down criticism of himself in Germany and the Netherlands with tacit government support, he is getting everything he has asked for with no sign of dissent or even a hint of negotiation from the EU, they give in on every turn.
Does it matter if he has no backing other than that of the Turkish people, they have voted him in with a huge majority just last year and 49.5% of the vote. He is politically untouchable which is why the EU has bent over on every occasion he has asked them to do so.
His threat of flooding the EU with migrants isn't going to go away until we can resolve the situation in Syria, something that is not going to happen for a long time.
The EU states won't let him carry on like that because of the strain it's putting on the domestic politics of the members (see the Austrian presidential election), which is putting pressure on the cohesion of the EU itself.
Nobody accused The Guardian of dog-whistling. Yet the Remainers threw their toys out of the pram over Boris mentioning Obama’s Kenyan heritage in his piece for the Sun last Friday, despite the fact this reasoning was widely echoed elsewhere at the time the Churchill bust in question was originally removed. Boris was just repeating what others have said without remark – could it all just have been a referendum-related kerfuffle to bash the Brexiteer-in-Chief?
It was raised over the bust. But I think it was a risible explanation for Obama's position on Brexit and a crass playing of the man not the ball. As I've said earlier it was a matter of shoot the messenger because you don't like the message - which would surprise, surprise have been the same from any previous US President, who didn't so far as I know have relatives tortured by the British.
Turkey has been an Associate Member of the EEC and its successors since 1963, which gives some indication of how glacial its progress has been towards actual membership.
Re visa travel, if a deal was agreed on visa-free travel then it should be implemented (although of course that cuts both ways - Turkey has obligations under the deal too). I don't really see the debate there.
Well I think that's a naive view of what's going on at the moment with Turkey and the EU. Erdogan knows he has the EU over a barrel and is asking for visa free travel without any chance of them holding up their side of the bargain, and he knows the EU will give in because they can't handle the 2m migrants that would be let loose into Greece.
I'd say it was much more likely that the agreement fails entirely than that one side implements it unilaterally. More likely still though is that it gets renegotiated and kicked down the line.
Ultimately though, Erdogan cannot carry on as he is doing at present. He's pissing off the Russians, the Europeans and in playing a religious game, is putting the American relationship at risk. Who'd be prepared to back him now were the chips down? His bluster is that of weakness rather than strength.
You say Erdogan can't carry on as normal, but why not? He's already pissed everyone off and is still winning, he's getting everything he wants from the EU, has successfully shut down criticism of himself in Germany and the Netherlands with tacit government support, he is getting everything he has asked for with no sign of dissent or even a hint of negotiation from the EU, they give in on every turn.
Does it matter if he has no backing other than that of the Turkish people, they have voted him in with a huge majority just last year and 49.5% of the vote. He is politically untouchable which is why the EU has bent over on every occasion he has asked them to do so.
His threat of flooding the EU with migrants isn't going to go away until we can resolve the situation in Syria, something that is not going to happen for a long time.
The EU states won't let him carry on like that because of the strain it's putting on the domestic politics of the members (see the Austrian presidential election), which is putting pressure on the cohesion of the EU itself.
And the day they refuse his demands is the day the migrant taps are turned on again. The next time the cost of turning them off will be even higher.
Honestly, this is wishful thinking from an EU federalist.
Totally disagree, he's got the whip hand and knows it. The craven behaviour of Merkel says it all.
He's holding back some million or so migrants - and already extracted several billion dangeld plus other concessions. He's not going anywhere in the #1 strong arm game.
Turkey has been an Associate Member of the EEC and its successors since 1963, which gives some indication of how glacial its progress has been towards actual membership.
Re visa travel, if a deal was agreed on visa-free travel then it should be implemented (although of course that cuts both ways - Turkey has obligations under the deal too). I don't really see the debate there.
Well I think that's a naive view of what's going on at the moment with Turkey and the EU. Erdogan knows he has the EU over a barrel and is asking for visa free travel without any chance of them holding up their side of the bargain, and he knows the EU will give in because they can't handle the 2m migrants that would be let loose into Greece.
I'd say it was much more likely that the agreement fails entirely than that one side implements it unilaterally. More likely still though is that it gets renegotiated and kicked down the line.
Ultimately though, Erdogan cannot carry on as he is doing at present. He's pissing off the Russians, the Europeans and in playing a religious game, is putting the American relationship at risk. Who'd be prepared to back him now were the chips down? His bluster is that of weakness rather than strength.
You say Erdogan can't carry on as normal, but why not? He's already pissed everyone off and is still winning, he's getting everything he wants from the EU, has successfully shut down criticism of himself in Germany and the Netherlands with tacit government support, he is getting everything he has asked for with no sign of dissent or even a hint of negotiation from the EU, they give in on every turn.
Does it matter if he has no backing other than that of the Turkish people, they have voted him in with a huge majority just last year and 49.5% of the vote. He is politically untouchable which is why the EU has bent over on every occasion he has asked them to do so.
His threat of flooding the EU with migrants isn't going to go away until we can resolve the situation in Syria, something that is not going to happen for a long time.
The EU states won't let him carry on like that because of the strain it's putting on the domestic politics of the members (see the Austrian presidential election), which is putting pressure on the cohesion of the EU itself.
His threat of flooding the EU with migrants isn't going to go away until we can resolve the situation in Syria, something that is not going to happen for a long time.
There is a feeling in Germany that Turkey is trying to export it's "Kurdish problem" to Germany.
Bavarian Finance Minister Markus Söder, for example, worries that due to Erdogan's persecution of Kurds in Turkey, millions may take advantage of the visa waver to flee to Germany. "We are importing an internal Turkish conflict," he warned, adding: "In the end, fewer migrants may arrive by boat, but more will arrive by airplane."
His threat of flooding the EU with migrants isn't going to go away until we can resolve the situation in Syria, something that is not going to happen for a long time.
There is a feeling in Germany that Turkey is trying to export it's "Kurdish problem" to Germany.
Bavarian Finance Minister Markus Söder, for example, worries that due to Erdogan's persecution of Kurds in Turkey, millions may take advantage of the visa waver to flee to Germany. "We are importing an internal Turkish conflict," he warned, adding: "In the end, fewer migrants may arrive by boat, but more will arrive by airplane."
Well this is what Romania did with their Gypsy problem, they exported it to France and to here. The situation is not without precedent.
"Trump is likely to secure over 50% in the polls (since 15% are undecideds) and therefore get all of the remaining 13, too. Otherwise he will win six."
It now seems increasingly likely he will secure all 28 delegates, as I suspected.
Rhode Island (19 delegates)
"This is a two stage proportional state. Each of the three candidates is likely to score over 10% and under 67% in each of the state's two CDs, therefore each candidate will scoop two. A lack of polling hinders a precise figure; 50 to 60% is likely for Trump, approximately seven further delegates - a total of nine."
The latest poll has him at the top end of expectations, maybe ten rather than nine. He needs a further swing to take more than that.
Well I think that's a naive view of what's going on at the moment with Turkey and the EU. Erdogan knows he has the EU over a barrel and is asking for visa free travel without any chance of them holding up their side of the bargain, and he knows the EU will give in because they can't handle the 2m migrants that would be let loose into Greece.
I'd say it was much more likely that the agreement fails entirely than that one side implements it unilaterally. More likely still though is that it gets renegotiated and kicked down the line.
Ultimately though, Erdogan cannot carry on as he is doing at present. He's pissing off the Russians, the Europeans and in playing a religious game, is putting the American relationship at risk. Who'd be prepared to back him now were the chips down? His bluster is that of weakness rather than strength.
You say Erdogan can't carry on as normal, but why not? He's already pissed everyone off and is still winning, he's getting everything he wants from the EU, has successfully shut down criticism of himself in Germany and the Netherlands with tacit government support, he is getting everything he has asked for with no sign of dissent or even a hint of negotiation from the EU, they give in on every turn.
Does it matter if he has no backing other than that of the Turkish people, they have voted him in with a huge majority just last year and 49.5% of the vote. He is politically untouchable which is why the EU has bent over on every occasion he has asked them to do so.
His threat of flooding the EU with migrants isn't going to go away until we can resolve the situation in Syria, something that is not going to happen for a long time.
The EU states won't let him carry on like that because of the strain it's putting on the domestic politics of the members (see the Austrian presidential election), which is putting pressure on the cohesion of the EU itself.
And the day they refuse his demands is the day the migrant taps are turned on again. The next time the cost of turning them off will be even higher.
Honestly, this is wishful thinking from an EU federalist.
If he's not prepared to be nice then having tried that and having seen it fail, you have to then play nasty. End the accession talks, end the aid grants, end flights and other transport links to Europe, impose full visa restrictions and either seek to return all migrants or if that's not practical, relocate them - forcibly if necessary - to a willing third party state. The money to fund the latter could come from the savings of cutting the Turkish aid.
If he's not prepared to be nice then having tried that and having seen it fail, you have to then play nasty. End the accession talks, end the aid grants, end flights and other transport links to Europe, impose full visa restrictions and either seek to return all migrants or if that's not practical, relocate them - forcibly if necessary - to a willing third party state. The money to fund the latter could come from the savings of cutting the Turkish aid.
That's a massive exercise of wishful thinking, David. In what world is the EU going to forcibly relocate migrants to a third party nation from which they didn't originate? In what world is Germany going to agree to cut travel to Turkey off? We don't live in a parallel universe where the EU is run by the same hard headed types that run our migration policy or Australian migration policy, it is run by fools like Merkel who laid down the welcome mat when faced with record migrant flows.
Terrible night for the Austrian pollsters. They forecast the Austrian People's Party candidate would get 24% and he actually received about 37%.
AfD outperformed their poll ratings as well recently. People don't want to tell pollsters that they are voting right wing because they fear being judged, it's why I think Zac still has a chance of winning despite the polling.
"Trump is likely to secure over 50% in the polls (since 15% are undecideds) and therefore get all of the remaining 13, too. Otherwise he will win six."
It now seems increasingly likely he will secure all 28 delegates, as I suspected.
Rhode Island (19 delegates)
"This is a two stage proportional state. Each of the three candidates is likely to score over 10% and under 67% in each of the state's two CDs, therefore each candidate will scoop two. A lack of polling hinders a precise figure; 50 to 60% is likely for Trump, approximately seven further delegates - a total of nine."
The latest poll has him at the top end of expectations, maybe ten rather than nine. He needs a further swing to take more than that.
Pennsylvania is the interesting one. Delegates are directly elected there, distinct from the presidential preferences. There is therefore a significant premium for candidates with the organisation to push the names of their favoured delegates. Note that three-quarters of the delegates are not formally bound even on the first ballot.
If he's not prepared to be nice then having tried that and having seen it fail, you have to then play nasty. End the accession talks, end the aid grants, end flights and other transport links to Europe, impose full visa restrictions and either seek to return all migrants or if that's not practical, relocate them - forcibly if necessary - to a willing third party state. The money to fund the latter could come from the savings of cutting the Turkish aid.
That's a massive exercise of wishful thinking, David. In what world is the EU going to forcibly relocate migrants to a third party nation from which they didn't originate? In what world is Germany going to agree to cut travel to Turkey off? We don't live in a parallel universe where the EU is run by the same hard headed types that run our migration policy or Australian migration policy, it is run by fools like Merkel who laid down the welcome mat when faced with record migrant flows.
Depends on what domestic political pressure brings about. The spectre of the VVD, FPO, FN, AfD, Golden Dawn, as well as of Brexit, should have an effect.
In any case, the EU states wouldn't have to do all that at once, or even at all. Simply tabling the policies might well have some mollifying effect on Erdogan.
Turkey has been an Associate Member of the EEC and its successors since 1963, which gives some indication of how glacial its progress has been towards actual membership.
Re visa travel, if a deal was agreed on visa-free travel then it should be implemented (although of course that cuts both ways - Turkey has obligations under the deal too). I don't really see the debate there.
Well I think that's a naive view of what's going on at the moment with Turkey and the EU. Erdogan knows he has the EU over a barrel and is asking for visa free travel without any chance of them holding up their side of the bargain, and he knows the EU will give in because they can't handle the 2m migrants that would be let loose into Greece.
I'd say it was much more likely that the agreement fails entirely than that one side implements it unilaterally. More likely still though is that it gets renegotiated and kicked down the line.
Ultimately though, Erdogan cannot carry on as he is doing at present. He's pissing off the Russians, the Europeans and in playing a religious game, is putting the American relationship at risk. Who'd be prepared to back him now were the chips down? His bluster is that of weakness rather than strength.
You say Erdogan can't carry on as normal, but why not? He's already pissed everyone off and is still winning, he's getting everything he wants from the EU, has successfully shut down criticism of himself in Germany and the Netherlands with tacit government support, he is getting everything he has asked for with no sign of dissent or even a hint of negotiation from the EU, they give in on every turn.
Does it matter if he has no backing other than that of the Turkish people, they have voted him in with a huge majority just last year and 49.5% of the vote. He is politically untouchable which is why the EU has bent over on every occasion he has asked them to do so.
His threat of flooding the EU with migrants isn't going to go away until we can resolve the situation in Syria, something that is not going to happen for a long time.
The EU states won't let him carry on like that because of the strain it's putting on the domestic politics of the members (see the Austrian presidential election), which is putting pressure on the cohesion of the EU itself.
Then he will simply open the immigrant tap again. In fact, if Turkey does not get visa waiver for its citizens by end June the whole deal is off.
Terrible night for the Austrian pollsters. They forecast the Austrian People's Party candidate would get 24% and he actually received about 37%.
AfD outperformed their poll ratings as well recently. People don't want to tell pollsters that they are voting right wing because they fear being judged, it's why I think Zac still has a chance of winning despite the polling.
On that topic I wonder if the UKIP advance in Wales will be bigger than forecast.
Terrible night for the Austrian pollsters. They forecast the Austrian People's Party candidate would get 24% and he actually received about 37%.
AfD outperformed their poll ratings as well recently. People don't want to tell pollsters that they are voting right wing because they fear being judged, it's why I think Zac still has a chance of winning despite the polling.
On that topic I wonder if the UKIP advance in Wales will be bigger than forecast.
No because Farage is a busted flush. If they had a different leader, maybe Paul Nutall or Diane James I think they would be on course for a big result in Wales. As it stands Farage is hindering UKIP progress and Brexit progress.
"Trump is likely to secure over 50% in the polls (since 15% are undecideds) and therefore get all of the remaining 13, too. Otherwise he will win six."
It now seems increasingly likely he will secure all 28 delegates, as I suspected.
Rhode Island (19 delegates)
"This is a two stage proportional state. Each of the three candidates is likely to score over 10% and under 67% in each of the state's two CDs, therefore each candidate will scoop two. A lack of polling hinders a precise figure; 50 to 60% is likely for Trump, approximately seven further delegates - a total of nine."
The latest poll has him at the top end of expectations, maybe ten rather than nine. He needs a further swing to take more than that.
Pennsylvania is the interesting one. Delegates are directly elected there, distinct from the presidential preferences. There is therefore a significant premium for candidates with the organisation to push the names of their favoured delegates. Note that three-quarters of the delegates are not formally bound even on the first ballot.
Yes. 54 of 71 will be officially unbound, but will still of course express a preference on the first ballot.
Somebody posted a glorious spreadsheet of how every delegate standing had indicated they would vote. Something like a quarter lean Trump per se; half claim they will reflect the vote in the state and/or CD, which will all vote Trump.
Trump has been able to twist the screw in vote terms, which should help to counteract the Cruz effect. He can expect 20 to 30 further delegates, plus the 17 bound ones.
Tom McTague In the Foreign Office for Obama's address to a grateful nation. Overheard: "Has the feel of a Roman emperor visiting a rebellious province."
anecdote: my wife who for some reason unfathomable to a nutter like me is not a big believer in the importance of constitutional issues has wobbled from remain (on the grounds that she aspires to live somewhere warmer) to her default option of spoiling her ballot. apparently she has been put off by the incessant negativity of remain which reminds her of the no campaign in scotland (she voted yes).
Terrible night for the Austrian pollsters. They forecast the Austrian People's Party candidate would get 24% and he actually received about 37%.
AfD outperformed their poll ratings as well recently. People don't want to tell pollsters that they are voting right wing because they fear being judged, it's why I think Zac still has a chance of winning despite the polling.
There's right-wing and right-wing. Zac is centrist Tory. AfD are UKIP-aligned. FPO are BNP-aligned. Then again, London is not Austria.
If he's not prepared to be nice then having tried that and having seen it fail, you have to then play nasty. End the accession talks, end the aid grants, end flights and other transport links to Europe, impose full visa restrictions and either seek to return all migrants or if that's not practical, relocate them - forcibly if necessary - to a willing third party state. The money to fund the latter could come from the savings of cutting the Turkish aid.
That's a massive exercise of wishful thinking, David. In what world is the EU going to forcibly relocate migrants to a third party nation from which they didn't originate? In what world is Germany going to agree to cut travel to Turkey off? We don't live in a parallel universe where the EU is run by the same hard headed types that run our migration policy or Australian migration policy, it is run by fools like Merkel who laid down the welcome mat when faced with record migrant flows.
Depends on what domestic political pressure brings about. The spectre of the VVD, FPO, FN, AfD, Golden Dawn, as well as of Brexit, should have an effect.
In any case, the EU states wouldn't have to do all that at once, or even at all. Simply tabling the policies might well have some mollifying effect on Erdogan.
You would be correct in normal times, but the neither the EU nor the national governments in question seem to be awake to the danger of the far right and are ploughing ahead with unpopular policies. I don't expect this to change unless VVD end up with 55-60 seats in the Dutch Parliament and form a coalition with the CDA. Even then the EU will just hope to ride out PM Wilders for a few years and hope he fucks up so the Dutch "come to their senses" or something like that.
Maybe we could be an associate member of the EU, like Turkey.
This wouild mean free trade and visa free travel but not having to go along with the rest of the rules.
And no right to work or settle?
There are plenty of Turkish workers in Germany.
"If visa requirements are lifted completely, each of these persons could buy a cheap plane ticket to any German airport, utter the word 'asylum,' and trigger a years-long judicial process with a good chance of ending in a residency permit." — German analyst Andrew Hammel.
How stupid is that quote ? Turkey's economy is in the top 15 in the world. The Turkish per capita income is far higher than many EU countries.
Terrible night for the Austrian pollsters. They forecast the Austrian People's Party candidate would get 24% and he actually received about 37%.
AfD outperformed their poll ratings as well recently. People don't want to tell pollsters that they are voting right wing because they fear being judged, it's why I think Zac still has a chance of winning despite the polling.
There's right-wing and right-wing. Zac is centrist Tory. AfD are UKIP-aligned. FPO are BNP-aligned. Then again, London is not Austria.
Well as TSE pointed out in his earlier thread, CCHQ wouldn't be using Dave to push the extremist line if they didn't think they had a chance of winning.
Maybe we could be an associate member of the EU, like Turkey.
This wouild mean free trade and visa free travel but not having to go along with the rest of the rules.
And no right to work or settle?
There are plenty of Turkish workers in Germany.
"If visa requirements are lifted completely, each of these persons could buy a cheap plane ticket to any German airport, utter the word 'asylum,' and trigger a years-long judicial process with a good chance of ending in a residency permit." — German analyst Andrew Hammel.
How stupid is that quote ? Turkey's economy is in the top 15 in the world. The Turkish per capita income is far higher than many EU countries.
And how stupid is that reply. Maybe it's not about money. Maybe its about several million Kurds not being welcome in Turkey and having somewhere else to go ?
Terrible night for the Austrian pollsters. They forecast the Austrian People's Party candidate would get 24% and he actually received about 37%.
AfD outperformed their poll ratings as well recently. People don't want to tell pollsters that they are voting right wing because they fear being judged, it's why I think Zac still has a chance of winning despite the polling.
On that topic I wonder if the UKIP advance in Wales will be bigger than forecast.
Ipsos Mori Net ratings, (changes since last month)
Cameron minus 19 (+6)
Corbyn minus 5 (+6)
Farage minus 6 (-4)
Farron minus 8 (+4)
Farage and Corbyn more popular than Cameron?
Corbyn at risk of going net positive, a rarity these days in our cynical environment. Tory friends have warmed to him up to a point as well: "I can't quite see him as Prime Minister but he seems honest and decent" is a typical quote. Labour fans remain solidly supportive.
If he's not prepared to be nice then having tried that and having seen it fail, you have to then play nasty. End the accession talks, end the aid grants, end flights and other transport links to Europe, impose full visa restrictions and either seek to return all migrants or if that's not practical, relocate them - forcibly if necessary - to a willing third party state. The money to fund the latter could come from the savings of cutting the Turkish aid.
That's a massive exercise of wishful thinking, David. In what world is the EU going to forcibly relocate migrants to a third party nation from which they didn't originate? In what world is Germany going to agree to cut travel to Turkey off? We don't live in a parallel universe where the EU is run by the same hard headed types that run our migration policy or Australian migration policy, it is run by fools like Merkel who laid down the welcome mat when faced with record migrant flows.
Depends on what domestic political pressure brings about. The spectre of the VVD, FPO, FN, AfD, Golden Dawn, as well as of Brexit, should have an effect.
In any case, the EU states wouldn't have to do all that at once, or even at all. Simply tabling the policies might well have some mollifying effect on Erdogan.
You would be correct in normal times, but the neither the EU nor the national governments in question seem to be awake to the danger of the far right and are ploughing ahead with unpopular policies. I don't expect this to change unless VVD end up with 55-60 seats in the Dutch Parliament and form a coalition with the CDA. Even then the EU will just hope to ride out PM Wilders for a few years and hope he fucks up so the Dutch "come to their senses" or something like that.
I would concede that there is a real risk of sleepwalking / lobster-boiling into catastrophe. What really worries me is what would happen if another recession hit in the near future.
All the same, you would think that someone would get a grip. They usually do. Usually, but not always.
Maybe we could be an associate member of the EU, like Turkey.
This wouild mean free trade and visa free travel but not having to go along with the rest of the rules.
And no right to work or settle?
Koreans, Canadians, Americans and about 50 other countries have visa free access to chessmen l Schengen, just as we have visa free access to a similar number of countries. That is not the same as the right to live somewhere or to work there.
I thought IDS sounded quite chipper in R4 this morning as well. Poss demob happy since resigning from the DWP job, and who wouldn't be? But maybe private polling on Brexit has it closer than widely thought. *need more polls*
If he's not prepared to be nice then having tried that and having seen it fail, you have to then play nasty. End the accession talks, end the aid grants, end flights and other transport links to Europe, impose full visa restrictions and either seek to return all migrants or if that's not practical, relocate them - forcibly if necessary - to a willing third party state. The money to fund the latter could come from the savings of cutting the Turkish aid.
That's a massive exercise of wishful thinking, David. In what world is the EU going to forcibly relocate migrants to a third party nation from which they didn't originate? In what world is Germany going to agree to cut travel to Turkey off? We don't live in a parallel universe where the EU is run by the same hard headed types that run our migration policy or Australian migration policy, it is run by fools like Merkel who laid down the welcome mat when faced with record migrant flows.
Depends on what domestic political pressure brings about. The spectre of the VVD, FPO, FN, AfD, Golden Dawn, as well as of Brexit, should have an effect.
In any case, the EU states wouldn't have to do all that at once, or even at all. Simply tabling the policies might well have some mollifying effect on Erdogan.
You would be correct in normal times, but the neither the EU nor the national governments in question seem to be awake to the danger of the far right and are ploughing ahead with unpopular policies. I don't expect this to change unless VVD end up with 55-60 seats in the Dutch Parliament and form a coalition with the CDA. Even then the EU will just hope to ride out PM Wilders for a few years and hope he fucks up so the Dutch "come to their senses" or something like that.
I would concede that there is a real risk of sleepwalking / lobster-boiling into catastrophe. What really worries me is what would happen if another recession hit in the near future.
All the same, you would think that someone would get a grip. They usually do. Usually, but not always.
I would characterise usually as a big strong, sometimes is closer to the mark and most of the time too late.
If a recession hits, which is a 50/50 chance at the moment IMO, then all bets are off, I could see AfD, Corbyn, FN, FPO, VVD and Sweden Democrats all profiting from it and with German federal elections just around the corner is may be quite something if AfD get close to 20% with the current grand coalition scoring under 50%.
Ipsos Mori Net ratings, (changes since last month)
Cameron minus 19 (+6)
Corbyn minus 5 (+6)
Farage minus 6 (-4)
Farron minus 8 (+4)
Farage and Corbyn more popular than Cameron?
Corbyn at risk of going net positive, a rarity these days in our cynical environment. Tory friends have warmed to him up to a point as well: "I can't quite see him as Prime Minister but he seems honest and decent" is a typical quote. Labour fans remain solidly supportive.
Yes, I think he's being seen as Tony Benn in the evening of Benn's career at the moment. There is a risk that his ratings would plummet if people thought he might become PM. But then if that happened, he wouldn't become PM.
Ipsos Mori Net ratings, (changes since last month)
Cameron minus 19 (+6)
Corbyn minus 5 (+6)
Farage minus 6 (-4)
Farron minus 8 (+4)
Farage and Corbyn more popular than Cameron?
Corbyn at risk of going net positive, a rarity these days in our cynical environment. Tory friends have warmed to him up to a point as well: "I can't quite see him as Prime Minister but he seems honest and decent" is a typical quote. Labour fans remain solidly supportive.
There's your strategy: keep Labour almost completely out of the news for 4 weeks, and Corbyn's ratings rise.
How incompetent are these people? You can't talk about losing. You can't define the terms of your losing victory. Only your opponents can do that.
Darling famously said that 60/40 would be a close result that wouldn't settle the issue for IndyRef, Salmond would have looked like a moron if he had tried to stake out such a claim.
This is getting embarrassing, read any of the books on SindyRef you morons, make a fist of it at least.
I may start upgrading to 65/35 Remain leave for my prediction. I had thought the Leave price on Betfair was starting to look tempting but not anymore.
If a recession hits, which is a 50/50 chance at the moment IMO, then all bets are off, I could see AfD, Corbyn, FN, FPO, VVD and Sweden Democrats all profiting from it and with German federal elections just around the corner is may be quite something if AfD get close to 20% with the current grand coalition scoring under 50%.
If another recession hits, Osborne is in deep shit. People already don't like him, they dislike his arrogance and sneering nature, and suspect he isn't actually too-clever-by-half (as he behaves) but actually half-as-clever-as-he-thinks. Cameron has given Osborne a lot of rope and his full trust, if the economy tanks, and all the talk of cutting so we can caulk the hulls and repair the rigging turn out to be bullshit because he has spent all the saving on political bribes of one sort of another, they are going to be... what's that word again... oh yes, f*cked.
Goldsmith is definitely considered hard right in London, because he disagrees with Khan's position of believing we should "respect religious rights" when attending events where women have to come through the back entrance.
How incompetent are these people? You can't talk about losing. You can't define the terms of your losing victory. Only your opponents can do that.
Darling famously said that 60/40 would be a close result that wouldn't settle the issue for IndyRef, Salmond would have looked like a moron if he had tried to stake out such a claim.
This is getting embarrassing, read any of the books on SindyRef you morons, make a fist of it at least.
I may start upgrading to 65/35 Remain leave for my prediction. I had thought the Leave price on Betfair was starting to look tempting but not anymore.
Perhaps Leave are following Rome's approach in The Second Punic War.
Appear all rubbish and incompetent at the start and lull your opponents into a false sense of security, but when it finally matters, get your act together and shellack your opponents, thus winning you the war.
Turkey has been an Associate Member of the EEC and its successors since 1963, which gives some indication of how glacial its progress has been towards actual membership.
Re visa travel, if a deal was agreed on visa-free travel then it should be implemented (although of course that cuts both ways - Turkey has obligations under the deal too). I don't really see the debate there.
Well I think that's a naive view of what's going on at the moment with Turkey and the EU. Erdogan knows he has the EU over a barrel and is asking for visa free travel without any chance of them holding up their side of the bargain, and he knows the EU will give in because they can't handle the 2m migrants that would be let loose into Greece.
I'd say it was much more likely that the agreement fails entirely than that one side implements it unilaterally. More likely still though is that it gets renegotiated and kicked down the line.
Ultimately though, Erdogan cannot carry on as he is doing at present. He's pissing off the Russians, the Europeans and in playing a religious game, is putting the American relationship at risk. Who'd be prepared to back him now were the chips down? His bluster is that of weakness rather than strength.
You say Erdogan can't carry on as normal, but why not? He's already pissed everyone off and is still winning
You could have said the same about Arthur Scargill in the early 80s. Remember that Thatcher folded the first time the NUM started making threats.
If he's not prepared to be nice then having tried that and having seen it fail, you have to then play nasty. End the accession talks, end the aid grants, end flights and other transport links to Europe, impose full visa restrictions and either seek to return all migrants or if that's not practical, relocate them - forcibly if necessary - to a willing third party state. The money to fund the latter could come from the savings of cutting the Turkish aid.
That's a massive exercise of wishful thinking, David. In what world is the EU going to forcibly relocate migrants to a third party nation from which they didn't originate? In what world is Germany going to agree to cut travel to Turkey off? We don't live in a parallel universe where the EU is run by the same hard headed types that run our migration policy or Australian migration policy, it is run by fools like Merkel who laid down the welcome mat when faced with record migrant flows.
Depends on what domestic political pressure brings about. The spectre of the VVD, FPO, FN, AfD, Golden Dawn, as well as of Brexit, should have an effect.
In any case, the EU states wouldn't have to do all that at once, or even at all. Simply tabling the policies might well have some mollifying effect on Erdogan.
You would be correct in normal times, but the neither the EU nor the national governments in question seem to be awake to the danger of the far right and are ploughing ahead with unpopular policies. I don't expect this to change unless VVD end up with 55-60 seats in the Dutch Parliament and form a coalition with the CDA. Even then the EU will just hope to ride out PM Wilders for a few years and hope he fucks up so the Dutch "come to their senses" or something like that.
I would concede that there is a real risk of sleepwalking / lobster-boiling into catastrophe. What really worries me is what would happen if another recession hit in the near future.
If? Of course there will be a recession in the near future. We get one just about every decade. 2008 is 8 years ago now. We should be deep into the 'running a surplus phase' of a Keynesian cycle. Some very big countries are in a horrible state. Chance of getting through this parliament with no recession is close to zero IMHO. That's when we'll find out just how sorted the EU really is or isn't. And ourselves. We never got into the 'fixing the roof' phase and will be made to suffer for it.
How incompetent are these people? You can't talk about losing. You can't define the terms of your losing victory. Only your opponents can do that.
Darling famously said that 60/40 would be a close result that wouldn't settle the issue for IndyRef, Salmond would have looked like a moron if he had tried to stake out such a claim.
This is getting embarrassing, read any of the books on SindyRef you morons, make a fist of it at least.
I may start upgrading to 65/35 Remain leave for my prediction. I had thought the Leave price on Betfair was starting to look tempting but not anymore.
Perhaps Leave are following Rome's approach in The Second Punic War.
Appear all rubbish and incompetent at the start and lull your opponents into a false sense of security, but when it finally matters, get your act together and shellack your opponents, thus winning you the war.
Some say this was Salmond's strategy in the two debates. If it was then it was a terrible strategy, there is a viable drop in Yes support after the first debate which dented the momentum Yes was building.
Remain have been crap and tediously predictable, now is the time to prise them apart if you are Leave. Leave should have had talking points draw up weeks in advance for whatever figure the treasury produced or Obama said as they should have known yet were going to happen.
I wanted a good debate on Europe with a positive EU vision presented. Currently I am being cheated out of it.
Terrible night for the Austrian pollsters. They forecast the Austrian People's Party candidate would get 24% and he actually received about 37%.
AfD outperformed their poll ratings as well recently. People don't want to tell pollsters that they are voting right wing because they fear being judged, it's why I think Zac still has a chance of winning despite the polling.
On that topic I wonder if the UKIP advance in Wales will be bigger than forecast.
No because Farage is a busted flush. If they had a different leader, maybe Paul Nutall or Diane James I think they would be on course for a big result in Wales. As it stands Farage is hindering UKIP progress and Brexit progress.
I'm not sure its as simplistic as that, that by ditching Nigel Ukip soar. There's no doubt that plenty can't stick him but no evidence they would vote for Nuttall or James at a GE.
Turkey has been an Associate Member of the EEC and its successors since 1963, which gives some indication of how glacial its progress has been towards actual membership.
Re visa travel, if a deal was agreed on visa-free travel then it should be implemented (although of course that cuts both ways - Turkey has obligations under the deal too). I don't really see the debate there.
Well I think that's a naive view of what's going on at the moment with Turkey and the EU. Erdogan knows he has the EU over a barrel and is asking for visa free travel without any chance of them holding up their side of the bargain, and he knows the EU will give in because they can't handle the 2m migrants that would be let loose into Greece.
I'd say it was much more likely that the agreement fails entirely than that one side implements it unilaterally. More likely still though is that it gets renegotiated and kicked down the line.
Ultimately though, Erdogan cannot carry on as he is doing at present. He's pissing off the Russians, the Europeans and in playing a religious game, is putting the American relationship at risk. Who'd be prepared to back him now were the chips down? His bluster is that of weakness rather than strength.
You say Erdogan can't carry on as normal, but why not? He's already pissed everyone off and is still winning
You could have said the same about Arthur Scargill in the early 80s. Remember that Thatcher folded the first time the NUM started making threats.
That's not the same in any way. If Scargill was the gatekeeper to 2m+ migrants banging on the door of the nation then it might have been valid. Fortunately he wasn't.
Aside from the nods on the ECHR and free movement, and clear insinuation she'd have got a better deal had she been in charge, most of that speech reads as a conventionally europhile argument.
It really isn't a 'europhile' argument, it's a balanced assessment explaining why she has come down on the Remain side.
It's also interesting as a manifesto to how she would approach the EU if she were to become leader, and a very encouraging one IMO.
It makes the conventional arguments on completing the single market, that our special relationship hinges on us being the US's strategic partner inside the EU, that Britain holds the balance of power in the EU between the protectionist and free trade blocs inside the EU, and all will be well if Britain leads from the front in Europe, including on reform of CFP and CAP.
Fine, if you agree, but be under no illusions she's a eurosceptic.
If by 'eurosceptic' you mean someone who is irrevocably committed to the UK leaving the EU, then, no she isn't. Nor is William Hague, or Phil Hammond, or for that matter David Cameron.
But that is just semantics. 'Eurosceptic' originally meant exactly what it said: someone sceptical about the EU project. By that definition, the vast majority of Conservative politicians are Eurosceptics, with a few exceptions such as Ken Clarke and Dominic Grieve.
I'm not quite sure when Eurosceptic had its meaning changed. The classifications used to be: Better Off Out (BOO), Eurosceptic (we don't want any more integration but broadly the current situation is acceptable), and Europhile (full speed ahead to the Euro and federalisation.
It us a failure by the lukewarmers to recognise that things have changed that results in this attempt to cling to the old definitions.
Those who believed the EU project was in need of reform but basically worth clinging to should by now have had their illusions shattered. There can be no reform - at least not of the nature the Remain crowd talk of. The choice is stark. Either Leave the EU or Remain in the emerging superstate. There is no third way or middle ground. Not because of some evil EU machinations but because of basic necessity. The EU must unite or collapse.
When looked at in those terms Euroscepticism can only now mean withdrawal. Any other option that you might think once existed (it didn't of course on reality) is now long gone.
Turkey has been an Associate Member of the EEC and its successors since 1963, which gives some indication of how glacial its progress has been towards actual membership.
Re visa travel, if a deal was agreed on visa-free travel then it should be implemented (although of course that cuts both ways - Turkey has obligations under the deal too). I don't really see the debate there.
Well I think that's a naive view of what's going on at the moment with Turkey and the EU. Erdogan knows he has the EU over a barrel and is asking for visa free travel without any chance of them holding up their side of the bargain, and he knows the EU will give in because they can't handle the 2m migrants that would be let loose into Greece.
I'd say it was much more likely that the agreement fails entirely than that one side implements it unilaterally. More likely still though is that it gets renegotiated and kicked down the line.
Ultimately though, Erdogan cannot carry on as he is doing at present. He's pissing off the Russians, the Europeans and in playing a religious game, is putting the American relationship at risk. Who'd be prepared to back him now were the chips down? His bluster is that of weakness rather than strength.
You say Erdogan can't carry on as normal, but why not? He's already pissed everyone off and is still winning
You could have said the same about Arthur Scargill in the early 80s. Remember that Thatcher folded the first time the NUM started making threats.
That's not the same in any way. If Scargill was the gatekeeper to 2m+ migrants banging on the door of the nation then it might have been valid. Fortunately he wasn't.
The analogy was intended to be between Merkel and Thatcher. Sometimes in the process of accreting a winning hand against a troublemaker you need to make tactical concessions. You can't conclude from observing this that the overall strategy is faulty.
How incompetent are these people? You can't talk about losing. You can't define the terms of your losing victory. Only your opponents can do that.
Darling famously said that 60/40 would be a close result that wouldn't settle the issue for IndyRef, Salmond would have looked like a moron if he had tried to stake out such a claim.
This is getting embarrassing, read any of the books on SindyRef you morons, make a fist of it at least.
I may start upgrading to 65/35 Remain leave for my prediction. I had thought the Leave price on Betfair was starting to look tempting but not anymore.
Perhaps Leave are following Rome's approach in The Second Punic War.
Appear all rubbish and incompetent at the start and lull your opponents into a false sense of security, but when it finally matters, get your act together and shellack your opponents, thus winning you the war.
They had more than three months didn't they?
I'm also fairly sure that it wasn't a deliberate strategy.
Interesting anecdote - one of my colleagues who didn't vote at GE2015 will be voting for Brexit.
Those sort of people tend not to make it to the polling station on the day.
I think she will. "All the parties are the same, but this is important"...
Indeed - again anecdotal, but I have a relative who at 60 has never voted at any level (too drunk to be voting in 75), and usually proudly defiant about it, but this time are insistent they will be voting in the referendum. Might not end up being the case, or reflective of wider moves, but some people are being motivated by Brexit.
Comments
Ultimately though, Erdogan cannot carry on as he is doing at present. He's pissing off the Russians, the Europeans and in playing a religious game, is putting the American relationship at risk. Who'd be prepared to back him now were the chips down? His bluster is that of weakness rather than strength.
Fine, if you agree, but be under no illusions she's a eurosceptic.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J0jmpESXhvk
Iron Bru Lady 2016
https://twitter.com/PeterMurrell/status/724504041691176961
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1j-dgQ-LGnowFE3swKvJjmmPVSgWUxwj_MYIL0gemB9U/edit?usp=sharing
But that is just semantics. 'Eurosceptic' originally meant exactly what it said: someone sceptical about the EU project. By that definition, the vast majority of Conservative politicians are Eurosceptics, with a few exceptions such as Ken Clarke and Dominic Grieve.
Almost all these, for tourists and short stay visitors, can be got online for people from most countries, and cost well under £100.
The article is incorrect: it is Schengen, not EU.
In areas such as digital economy, services and energy she's arguing for further integration, not less.
Chirpy IDS reading out DC's Bloomberg speech with all the reforms the PM demanded for UK to stay in. https://t.co/dXZPQ0eQss
Does it matter if he has no backing other than that of the Turkish people, they have voted him in with a huge majority just last year and 49.5% of the vote. He is politically untouchable which is why the EU has bent over on every occasion he has asked them to do so.
His threat of flooding the EU with migrants isn't going to go away until we can resolve the situation in Syria, something that is not going to happen for a long time.
It was raised over the bust. But I think it was a risible explanation for Obama's position on Brexit and a crass playing of the man not the ball. As I've said earlier it was a matter of shoot the messenger because you don't like the message - which would surprise, surprise have been the same from any previous US President, who didn't so far as I know have relatives tortured by the British.
Honestly, this is wishful thinking from an EU federalist.
He's holding back some million or so migrants - and already extracted several billion dangeld plus other concessions. He's not going anywhere in the #1 strong arm game.
Connecticut Republican Presidential Primary PPP (D)* Trump 59, Kasich 25, Cruz 13 Trump +34
Rhode Island Republican Presidential Primary PPP (D)* Trump 61, Kasich 23, Cruz 13 Trump +38
Connecticut (28 delegates)
"Trump is likely to secure over 50% in the polls (since 15% are undecideds) and therefore get all of the remaining 13, too. Otherwise he will win six."
It now seems increasingly likely he will secure all 28 delegates, as I suspected.
Rhode Island (19 delegates)
"This is a two stage proportional state. Each of the three candidates is likely to score over 10% and under 67% in each of the state's two CDs, therefore each candidate will scoop two. A lack of polling hinders a precise figure; 50 to 60% is likely for Trump, approximately seven further delegates - a total of nine."
The latest poll has him at the top end of expectations, maybe ten rather than nine. He needs a further swing to take more than that.
Applying for a Schengen Visa is not remotely automatic, there are significant requirements.
http://www.schengenvisainfo.com/schengen-visa-application-requirements/
http://www.bz-berlin.de/berlin/friedrichshain-kreuzberg/ausschreitungen-in-kreuzberg-zwischen-kurden-und-tuerken
In any case, the EU states wouldn't have to do all that at once, or even at all. Simply tabling the policies might well have some mollifying effect on Erdogan.
IDS: "By PMs own words gov should now be campaigning for leave as patently did not get the reforms they were talking about."
Somebody posted a glorious spreadsheet of how every delegate standing had indicated they would vote. Something like a quarter lean Trump per se; half claim they will reflect the vote in the state and/or CD, which will all vote Trump.
Trump has been able to twist the screw in vote terms, which should help to counteract the Cruz effect. He can expect 20 to 30 further delegates, plus the 17 bound ones.
In the Foreign Office for Obama's address to a grateful nation. Overheard: "Has the feel of a Roman emperor visiting a rebellious province."
Their campaign to win the hearts and minds on NO voters will be led my the most divisive and incompetent man they could find...
https://twitter.com/maxie_uk/status/724523762998218752
All the same, you would think that someone would get a grip. They usually do. Usually, but not always.
"Juan Mata: 'I earn an obscene amount of money, and footballers live in a bubble'"
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/football/2016/04/25/juan-mata-footballers-earn-an-obscene-amount-and-live-in-bubble/
http://www.politico.com/blogs/twelve-thirty-seven
If a recession hits, which is a 50/50 chance at the moment IMO, then all bets are off, I could see AfD, Corbyn, FN, FPO, VVD and Sweden Democrats all profiting from it and with German federal elections just around the corner is may be quite something if AfD get close to 20% with the current grand coalition scoring under 50%.
Perhaps we should call it a Palmer Paradox.
Darling famously said that 60/40 would be a close result that wouldn't settle the issue for IndyRef, Salmond would have looked like a moron if he had tried to stake out such a claim.
This is getting embarrassing, read any of the books on SindyRef you morons, make a fist of it at least.
I may start upgrading to 65/35 Remain leave for my prediction. I had thought the Leave price on Betfair was starting to look tempting but not anymore.
https://twitter.com/twlldun/status/724361875148922880
Aren't they approximately on the same side?
Appear all rubbish and incompetent at the start and lull your opponents into a false sense of security, but when it finally matters, get your act together and shellack your opponents, thus winning you the war.
http://order-order.com/2016/04/25/happy-meal-watsons-mcdonalds-summit-with-key-anti-corbyn-plotter/
That's at least one vote George will have for the mayoral. Or at most.
Remain have been crap and tediously predictable, now is the time to prise them apart if you are Leave. Leave should have had talking points draw up weeks in advance for whatever figure the treasury produced or Obama said as they should have known yet were going to happen.
I wanted a good debate on Europe with a positive EU vision presented. Currently I am being cheated out of it.
New Thread
That way ---->https://twitter.com/LeaveEUOfficial/status/724581905820188673
Those who believed the EU project was in need of reform but basically worth clinging to should by now have had their illusions shattered. There can be no reform - at least not of the nature the Remain crowd talk of. The choice is stark. Either Leave the EU or Remain in the emerging superstate. There is no third way or middle ground. Not because of some evil EU machinations but because of basic necessity. The EU must unite or collapse.
When looked at in those terms Euroscepticism can only now mean withdrawal. Any other option that you might think once existed (it didn't of course on reality) is now long gone.
I'm also fairly sure that it wasn't a deliberate strategy.