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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » We haven’t seen any post-Obama but punters are moving to IN
IN now a 71% chance on Betfair pic.twitter.com/yra2X48d9U
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https://twitter.com/suttonnick/status/723966508859269120
Besides, the best ones are unintentional.
https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/723966827085336576
Can someone remind what the punters thought of the likelihood of a Conservative Majority, prior to the results of the GE last year?
I do wonder if Cameron has made a major blunder here in getting Obama to speak out so bluntly - I think he views the left and centre-left as all sewn up for Remain and all that is needed is to persuade Tory voters to swing to Remain. But, as we are all know, there is a good chunk of the left that views anything backed by the US with suspicion. Add into that mix the view that TTIP is a plot to allow US private providers to take over the NHS and the left-wing vote for Remain may not look so certain.
No British politician advocates the way Americans should vote after all.
Assuming other US political candidates stay clear then good for them, and bad for those that seem unable to do so.
Or not
“Rather than scolding our closest allies for even considering exercising their rights as a sovereign nation, the President of the United States should look for ways to make Brexit, if it happens, an opportunity to enhance and strengthen the special relationship between our two countries.”
http://www.breitbart.com/london/2016/04/22/exclusive-sen-cruz-obama-brexit-comments-prez-make-opportunity-strengthen-special-relationship/
And that's without actually knowing what stance Trump is going to take now he's looking to switch to act "Presidential"
Wow, it's almost like they are both quoting the same US policy.
But that can't be, Dominic Raab assured us he knows better...
Obama said what his host (Cameron) asked him to say.
It doesn't add much to the arguments.
The US will do a deal if it's in their interests to do so. Which it will be. Speeches today notwithstanding.
As I said, the general consensus has been that the left-wing vote is in the bag for Remain - Obama may have upset that equation with what he said.
According to me red sources, apparently, Labour do have as many events as any London campaign but less activists are turning out. Also, they claim their vote is down, but I can't work out if that is versus the last Mayoral, 4 years ago or at the GE in 2015.
Clearly, if the latter, turnout will be about half, so of course their vote is down. If it is down versus 2012, then we Tories will be happy.
Re; Mayoralty, Labour have gone from quiet confidence to arrogance, Sadiq has won, absolute 100% certainty they say. So, they may be a smidgeon of value on the day if Zac drifts to a silly figure like 10 to 1. Zac still has a chance if Tories turn out and the quiet voters turn out too. Remember the GE. There's a chance.
For Assembly Member elections, we are in the dark. One senior Labour man told me that they might lose Brent & Harrow. F*ck me, if true, that is amazing. Therefore there might be a bet there, a fiver or so. Labour also claim they are struggling in Barnet & Camden and Ealing & Hillingdon. But they feel strong in North-east. The trouble with all this chat, is that the data is small in figures and lots of hearsay. On the other hand, the polls were great for Labour, but they didn't change their confidence/arrogance monitor. They (& Tories) are only reading their own data, the polls are too volatile.
Interesting...
I'm positioned against that nonsense anyway, but as I don't really believe GO will be next PM, and that I've no great wish to tie up funds waiting on Corbyn to self-identify with the tit-he-is I'm not piling in.
My money, as I think I've said before, is on Rees-Mogg! (Fun market in the odd fiver)
https://twitter.com/suttonnick/status/723973515251212288
Which makes this response a) an answer to your query, b) an example of the phenomenon, and c) recursive to boot.
And now if you'll forgive me, I have to go do some work
I'm struggling to see the Tories still being in with a chance though. Ed M clearly didn't inspire people to vote for him in droves nationally, but Khan seems to have the Corbynite crowd on site, without any first preference being syphoned off by Galloway, without putting off the rest of Labour voters who might otherwise stay at home as well, so will presumably maximise the Labour support, particularly since the Tories are internally divided at the moment, the LDs nowhere, and Zac being no Boris.
I'll happily admit I know little of London, but from the outside it's looking like Labour arrogance is well founded on this one.
Someone needs to give the Leave campaign a massive kick in the arse. They need to stick to the Goves, Hannans, Hoeys and a couple of kippers, letting the Boris's and Nigels loose to shout their mouths off on the front pages really aren't helping the cause one little bit.
http://viz.co.uk/raffles-the-gentleman-thug/
My revenge will be after the referendum (looks like leave will lose ) his leave backbenchers who must have some bad taste from cameron tactics and the tory leadership where I pray that other cnut osborne loses.
He's a fake, a liar, a fraud. a bully and a complete and utter waste of space!
Looking out of control - not the measured behaviour of a PM.
Starting to look as if he jumped the gun - thinking that declaring for Out and then an Out win would guarantee him becoming PM.
If Out now loses by a wide margin combined with his "performance" during the campaign it could well end his chances.
US presidential hopeful weighs in on forthcoming vote as No 10 welcomes latest backing ahead of 23 June referendum
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/apr/23/hillary-clinton-britain-should-stay-in-eu?CMP=twt_a-politics_b-gdnukpolitics
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/apr/23/hillary-clinton-britain-should-stay-in-eu#comments
I thought Leave were claiming he had no influence whatsoever...
Exclusive @YouGov poll for @CapX: 59% of Americans say UK should "never" be at back of queue http://capx.co/59-of-americans-say-no-obama-britain-should-never-be-at-back-of-line/ …
I only hope the referendum result is so decisive that the losing side has to accept the result with good grace, whatever opinion they have of the way the campaign was fought.
Let Osborne become leader. Osborne proves to be even more toxic and useless than El Gord. Tories defeated heavily in 2020 with Osborne humiliated (hey a guy can dream) Boris comes in and saves the day.
Can we use that as the standard description for Cameron from now on? Happy to credit it where necessary.
Indeed, Remain had all the resources initially in their favour.
Lots to play for yet, though.
And Peter Bone.
What more could they possibly want?
A mainstream Boris, especially after 3 years as Foreign Secretary, would be certain to win with the members, even having supported Remain.
Whereas now he's shot himself in the foot - putting the person who lay low and bided their time into pole position - Theresa May.
It's hers to lose now.
The already soft Remain vote could be being made softer by the PMs use of American politicians to try and help his cause.
As for "accepting the defeat with grace".. Well, the British people's view will have to be respected but there will be plenty of people waiting to rip Cameron and Osborne to pieces in the coming months and years. Myself included.
NOT queueing would make you a traitor. Queueing like a true Brrit is the most patriotic of acts.
Harrow should be safe Tory, but somehow it's not. There has been some awful local government there.
http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/
https://twitter.com/Trev_Forrester/status/723920875301527552
If it's anywhere up near 60% then it's a very bad defeat and makes Boris look bad in two ways:
1) being integral to a very unsuccessful campaign - not being able to make an impact
2) picking the wrong side in the first place - poor judgement
Which as an outsider is completely unfathomable.
Cameron's salted the earth for any posho public schoolboy types with hopes of being in charge of the Tories, so whatever remains of the sub 100K member Conservative party will have to look elsewhere for a saviour. And they'll need to be capable of building bridges with big donors such as the MIC.
And he is earning the abiding hatred of many of the people - the activists on the ground - who the Tory party will rely upon to get re-elected.
He may not be able to be moved until he chooses to go but his legacy is toast. He will forever more be viewed in the same light as Heath. Burnt in effigy every November the 5th.
Some of them remember the 90s and don't want to make the same mistake of the 90s, this includes people that have never been that favourable to Cameron from the start.
Obviously I might be wrong, and you could be right, the local election results will be a good indicator.
I'm spending most of the next fortnight helping a Tory hold a council seat in West Yorkshire, I'll let you know what the other activists say.
Do you really trust losers like Juncker not to send the whole thing tits up in the years ahead? The euro is probably one more recession away from complete impolosion,etc...
Course we might finish up with a new Jerusalem through the EU but my guess is that a complete economic and political meltdown is more likely. If/when that happens maybe they'll send for Boris.
Who knows...