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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » We haven’t seen any post-Obama but punters are moving to IN

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    EPGEPG Posts: 6,016
    viewcode said:

    EPG said:

    viewcode said:

    OK, first things first. Betting odds are an appallingly lousy predictor of the final result and this movement, although dispiriting for LEAVE, doesn't mean anything at this stage.

    Secondly, we have not had a (non-voodoo) poll in post-POTUS and we have no real idea on the resultant movement in opinion. We should reserve judgement until one does, since until then we are all just sticking a finger up. So to speak.

    The President just launched an Exocet at HMS Anglosphere. The betting odds correctly reflect this brazenness and its efficacy.
    Well, yes, but that may be more poetic than predictive. Until a poll comes in, we dunno.
    Betting odds are appallingly lousy, but polls are knowledge? Nah.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,787
    john_zims said:



    At least we now know the value of our 'special relationship' with the USA,if the UK electorate has the audacity to vote Leave then our 'friends' in the US will make sure we are at the back of the queue

    Where do you normally join queues? At the front?
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    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,950

    EPG said:

    viewcode said:

    OK, first things first. Betting odds are an appallingly lousy predictor of the final result and this movement, although dispiriting for LEAVE, doesn't mean anything at this stage.

    Secondly, we have not had a (non-voodoo) poll in post-POTUS and we have no real idea on the resultant movement in opinion. We should reserve judgement until one does, since until then we are all just sticking a finger up. So to speak.

    The President just launched an Exocet at HMS Anglosphere. The betting odds correctly reflect this brazenness and its efficacy.
    Dan Hannan, great proponent on the Anglosphere has been largely confining his tweets to Shakespeare since Obama's statement.....
    Tony Abbott (Aus PM) says "Stay"
    The Irish say "Stay"
    NZ PM (I think) said "Stay"
    Potus and future Potus says "Stay"
    Canada said "Stay" some years back
    Is SAffrica still counted as Anglosphere? How about India, which has English as an official language?
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    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,950
    EPG said:

    viewcode said:

    EPG said:

    viewcode said:

    OK, first things first. Betting odds are an appallingly lousy predictor of the final result and this movement, although dispiriting for LEAVE, doesn't mean anything at this stage.

    Secondly, we have not had a (non-voodoo) poll in post-POTUS and we have no real idea on the resultant movement in opinion. We should reserve judgement until one does, since until then we are all just sticking a finger up. So to speak.

    The President just launched an Exocet at HMS Anglosphere. The betting odds correctly reflect this brazenness and its efficacy.
    Well, yes, but that may be more poetic than predictive. Until a poll comes in, we dunno.
    Betting odds are appallingly lousy, but polls are knowledge? Nah.
    True, but other than exit polls, polls are the least-worst ruler we have
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    Tim_B said:

    Remember the attention given to Hillary's $230k speeches to Goldman Sachs et al? Bernie's still doing it.

    Its just come out what her speech demands are in addition to the fee -

    she must travel to/from the event in a private jet, preferably a Gulfstream 450
    First class air tickets for her staff
    a personal stenographer to record her remarks verbatim
    Presidential suite (up to 3 rooms)

    The AP has done an analysis of her paid speeches, and it shows lamentable judgment, but nothing illegal.

    It's not just Wall Street banks. Most companies and groups that paid Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton to speak between 2013 and 2015 have lobbied federal agencies in recent years, and more than one-third are government contractors, an Associated Press review has found. Their interests are sprawling and would follow Clinton to the White House should she win election this fall.

    The AP's review of federal records, regulatory filings and correspondence showed that almost all the 82 corporations, trade associations and other groups that paid for or sponsored Clinton's speeches have actively sought to sway the government — lobbying, bidding for contracts, commenting on federal policy and in some cases contacting State Department officials or Clinton herself during her tenure as secretary of state.


    http://bigstory.ap.org/article/ad3c483d59c9463e9a52ef4bc00351e0/firms-paid-clinton-speeches-have-us-govt-interests

    Let's not forget that Bill Clinton went round giving paid speeches all over the world while she was S of S, which coupled with all the contributions to the murky Clinton Foundation is equally troubling.

    Charity Navigator will not rate the Foundation, as it doesn't function like a charity.

    http://www.charitynavigator.org/index.cfm?bay=search.profile&ein=311580204#.Vxv9IzArLIU

    Only today did Hillary say in an interview that she is a normal person just like you -even though she hasn't driven a car since 1996.

    Plenty of people don't drive. I went over 18 months without travelling by car quite recently. Howwever, I suppose it would be more normal if she took the bus.
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    The Sunday Herald continues to pursue this 'second vote to the SNP wasted' line:

    http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/14448343.Battle_is_on_for_the_second_vote_of_Scottish_independence_supporters/

    I shall be wasting my second vote on the pro-independence (in the genuine from the UK and EU sense) Scottish Libertarians. I guess I'll have to waste my first vote on the token independent. I can't bring myself to vote for any of the others.
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    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,151
    viewcode said:

    OK, first things first. Betting odds are an appallingly lousy predictor of the final result and this movement, although dispiriting for LEAVE, doesn't mean anything at this stage.

    Secondly, we have not had a (non-voodoo) poll in post-POTUS and we have no real idea on the resultant movement in opinion. We should reserve judgement until one does, since until then we are all just sticking a finger up. So to speak.

    The betting markets aren't clairvoyent but can you suggest any better predictor of the final result?
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    viewcode said:

    OK, first things first. Betting odds are an appallingly lousy predictor of the final result and this movement, although dispiriting for LEAVE, doesn't mean anything at this stage.

    Secondly, we have not had a (non-voodoo) poll in post-POTUS and we have no real idea on the resultant movement in opinion. We should reserve judgement until one does, since until then we are all just sticking a finger up. So to speak.

    The betting markets aren't clairvoyent but can you suggest any better predictor of the final result?
    Yes ..... JackW !
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    JohnLoonyJohnLoony Posts: 1,790
    I think that it is right that Obama expressed his opinion on the UK/EU membership issue. It is an important issue, and he is right to express his opinion.

    I also disagree with his opinion.

    But how is this supposedly a "game-changer" in the referendum campaign? We are still two months away from polling day. The campaign will hardly even get going until the local elections are out of the way. In 4 or 6 weeks' time, when we are still 4 or 2 weeks away from the referendum, Obama's intervention will be ancient history.

    The "game changer" will be a speech or a gaffe or a comment from someone within the UK some time in the 3 or 4 days before polling day.
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    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,151

    viewcode said:

    OK, first things first. Betting odds are an appallingly lousy predictor of the final result and this movement, although dispiriting for LEAVE, doesn't mean anything at this stage.

    Secondly, we have not had a (non-voodoo) poll in post-POTUS and we have no real idea on the resultant movement in opinion. We should reserve judgement until one does, since until then we are all just sticking a finger up. So to speak.

    The betting markets aren't clairvoyent but can you suggest any better predictor of the final result?
    Yes ..... JackW !
    Fair point.
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    Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669

    Tim_B said:

    Remember the attention given to Hillary's $230k speeches to Goldman Sachs et al? Bernie's still doing it.

    Its just come out what her speech demands are in addition to the fee -

    she must travel to/from the event in a private jet, preferably a Gulfstream 450
    First class air tickets for her staff
    a personal stenographer to record her remarks verbatim
    Presidential suite (up to 3 rooms)

    The AP has done an analysis of her paid speeches, and it shows lamentable judgment, but nothing illegal.

    It's not just Wall Street banks. Most companies and groups that paid Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton to speak between 2013 and 2015 have lobbied federal agencies in recent years, and more than one-third are government contractors, an Associated Press review has found. Their interests are sprawling and would follow Clinton to the White House should she win election this fall.

    The AP's review of federal records, regulatory filings and correspondence showed that almost all the 82 corporations, trade associations and other groups that paid for or sponsored Clinton's speeches have actively sought to sway the government — lobbying, bidding for contracts, commenting on federal policy and in some cases contacting State Department officials or Clinton herself during her tenure as secretary of state.


    http://bigstory.ap.org/article/ad3c483d59c9463e9a52ef4bc00351e0/firms-paid-clinton-speeches-have-us-govt-interests

    Let's not forget that Bill Clinton went round giving paid speeches all over the world while she was S of S, which coupled with all the contributions to the murky Clinton Foundation is equally troubling.

    Charity Navigator will not rate the Foundation, as it doesn't function like a charity.

    http://www.charitynavigator.org/index.cfm?bay=search.profile&ein=311580204#.Vxv9IzArLIU

    Only today did Hillary say in an interview that she is a normal person just like you -even though she hasn't driven a car since 1996.

    Plenty of people don't drive. I went over 18 months without travelling by car quite recently. Howwever, I suppose it would be more normal if she took the bus.
    This is the US - everybody drives. Except Hillary. Buses aren't much of an option outside downtown in big cities, and virtually non-existent elsewhere - except for longhaul like Greyhound, none of which is really relevant to your rather odd comment.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,787
    edited April 2016
    HMS Anglosphere takes another hit from Obama:

    http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSKCN0XL00T

    LONDON (Reuters) - A trade deal between Britain and the United States could take five to 10 years to negotiate if Britain votes to leave the European Union at a June 23 referendum, U.S. President Barack Obama told the BBC in an interview broadcast on Sunday.

    http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36120808I'm
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    PAWPAW Posts: 1,074
    Don't need anything from America... not sure what he is selling... is it just Starbucks?
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,787
    PAW said:

    Don't need anything from America... not sure what he is selling... is it just Starbucks?

    The USA is pretty fundamental to HMS Anglosphere:

    . The idea of the “Anglosphere” – and the policies and strategies pursued by some of the political leaders of its constituent countries – has become a source of increasing, almost magnetic influence on British conservatives. And it may well provide the governing intellectual framework for the Eurosceptic campaign to quit the European Union in a post-election referendum.

    http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2015/02/rise-anglosphere-how-right-dreamed-new-conservative-world-order
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    PAWPAW Posts: 1,074
    I used to have a buying preference - UK, Commonwealth, USA, Europe in that order - but really don't need anything now from the USA and Europe. I just won't buy from them.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,787
    Bagehot:

    Because as defeatist, paranoid and neuralgic as the hard-line Brexiteers are, their resolve seems strong and sincere. They have their excuses at the ready in the event of a Remain win. They will fight on, perhaps as part of a swollen UKIP, perhaps within a newly Eurosceptic Conservative Party, or perhaps as some new political force outside the existing party landscape altogether. Britain’s referendum throws many political realities up in the air. But one thing is for sure: whatever the outcome the Brexiteers will still be with us.

    http://www.economist.com/news/britain/21697259-diehard-eurosceptics-leave-campaign-national-liberation-movement-b-brexit?force=scn/fb/te/pe/ed/bforbrexit
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    felixfelix Posts: 15,125

    midwinter said:

    As a Conservative voter I find it incredible that members and supporters of the party have such short memories. Do they not realise why they were unelectable for thirteen years. Obsession with Europe and outdated social views are voter repellent, particularly to most under 50.

    Do you genuinely think a different leader to Cameron would have won a majority in 2015? Here's a clue...they wouldn't All the polling had him miles ahead of the party.. How insanely stupid are the right of the party to repeat the moronic mistakes of the late 20th century. The furore over gay marriage was embarrassing enough, however the lack of loyalty to Cameron and the insane fixation over Europe from the same people who knifed Major is utterly breathtaking. I genuinely think many of these people would be better served as members of ukip as it seems they define their entire political being through the European Union and the UKs relationship with it.

    Cameron promised a referendum. We have one. Frankly the reaction of certain commentators and mps to his support for remain is similar to the hysterical shrieking of a cheated on wife after years of marriage. Initially I felt a little sympathy, now their resentment, whinging and lack of self awareness has become embarrassing and is best avoided.

    Let's remind ourselves what a great success IDS was as party leader. That's about how popular the right of the party is. Not going to win many elections from there. Even against Corbyn. Time for some of the party to remember why they're in power now. And show some support to their leader whatever their differences over Europe. Without Cameron 2020 could be very tough.


    Well said. 'They have learned nothing and forgotten nothing'.......
    The loons on here aren't listening. I doubt they represent the majority.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,787
    JohnLoony said:

    But how is this supposedly a "game-changer" in the referendum campaign? We are still two months away from polling day. The campaign will hardly even get going until the local elections are out of the way. In 4 or 6 weeks' time, when we are still 4 or 2 weeks away from the referendum, Obama's intervention will be ancient history.

    The "game changer" will be a speech or a gaffe or a comment from someone within the UK some time in the 3 or 4 days before polling day.

    Yes, it's far too early to call it.

    Yet remember Osborne's "Sermon on the Pound" - widely derided by the Nats at the time - they still point to polling in the immediate aftermath showing an increase in support for SINDY. Yet in truth, I suspect SINDY was holed below the waterline from that point on - the SNP struggled to come up with a convincing counter argument and we know economic uncertainty swayed many undecideds into the No camp. If the vote is REMAIN, I suspect people will look back to Obama's concentrated fire on HMS Anglosphere in much the same way.
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    peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,875
    edited April 2016
    PAW said:

    I used to have a buying preference - UK, Commonwealth, USA, Europe in that order - but really don't need anything now from the USA and Europe. I just won't buy from them.

    No Microsoft or Google derived products, or cereals, etc from the U.S.?
    No European fruit, pasta, cheese, oils, beer, wine, etc, etc ?
This discussion has been closed.