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    tysontyson Posts: 6,050
    OK- may be true. But if someone is on this site saying that they have just seen their mum die on a NHS ward and are happy with their treatment, you might give them a bit of a wide berth and not get into a political spat.

    Watford, and Geoff FM, Mortimer and now yourself, three quidder, whether you are just tactless or horribly cruel, I don't really care.

    Take a leaf from Rod Crosby's book- learn something.....

    And on that note, I am off going to listen to the radio

    A relative of mine died a couple of weeks back. It was probably inevitable, but on the care was highly variable. His GP admitted him too late, deferring admission for too long, but the admitting ward took excellent care of him and pulled him back from the brink. Unfortunately he was then transferred to a rehab ward who squandered all that good work. All on the NHS, and all in the same hospital. Both bad and good in one place, it is very hard to generalise from.

    Indeed.

    Which is why people bringing up individual experiences - good or bad - doesn't move the debate on.
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    TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,388
    edited March 2016
    Rubio now 72,000 votes behind in Florida! The man's a gonner.

    Miami still to come, but per my below post, they never make as much difference as people think.
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    edited March 2016
    Dixie said:

    chestnut said:



    Just maybe the financial state the Acute hospitals of the NHS may have contributed to what sounds like a tragically poor standard of care

    Like:

    a) My wife leaving A and E with a foot ache that was a broken ankle that they had missed in 2005;
    b) My mother in law having routine surgery that ended in a six month coma in 2006;
    c) Like me receiving calls about my mum's 'risk assessments' on the day I buried her in 2010;

    Your religion blinds you.

    I broke my thumb in 8 places and NHS said it was inoperable. I happened to have private health insurance. I went to the private hospital next day and blow me down, it was the same doctor who saw me at NHS teh day before. 'He said, dear boy. that looks nasty. I could operate tonight once you've had 12 hours without food.' A) NHS, not impressed; B) Surgeon, bastard!
    If the NHS was abolished tommorow we would still have the same Doctors, nurses and other staff. Venal self interested people are not going to change overnight.

    The deteriation in training standards for doctors and nurses and the recruitment and retention crises are going to be a major problem however health care is funded. One reason private healthcare is so expensive in anywhere with a decent legal system is the high cost of indemnity insurance. It costs me 20% of my private practice income despite never having been successfully sued.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,119

    Rubio now 72,000 votes behind in Florida! The man's a gonner.

    Turnout must be huge based on the number of votes counted so far and percentage reporting.
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    edited March 2016
    RepNom: If it ain't Trump, then it's Cruz in a 'brokered' convention.

    This really is quite simple, isn't it? The delegate maths and Byzantine rules do allow some ratting after the first ballot, if Trump doesn't make the 1,237 before the convention. But, given that some delegates will still be bound, and given Ted Cruz's good organisation, they don't allow for so much ratting that any other candidate outside the top two can get 1,237 delegates, as far as I can see.
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    isamisam Posts: 40,983
    edited March 2016

    isam said:

    GeoffM said:

    tyson said:

    Fuck off you vile piece of shit

    watford30 said:

    tyson said:

    In the last weeks, I've just gone through seeing my mum dying on a NHS ward in truly horrific circumstances. And you know something, I could not have wished for better, more caring treatment from such caring staff. And this was in Blackpool Victoria. To be honest I doubt BUPA, or any other private hospital in the world could have given my mum better care and dignity in these last days.

    So, to be polite, go fuck yourself.

    Mortimer said:

    chestnut said:

    ...

    snip

    Trusts' finances look set to deteriorate further—halfway through 2015–16 three quarters of trusts had a deficit, and their total overspend could rise to around £2.5 billion.

    The Department, NHS England and NHS Improvement have not taken action soon enough to keep trusts in financial balance. The target for trusts to make 4% efficiency savings across the board is unrealistic and better data is needed for more informed savings and efficiency targets.


    Spending on agency staff has contributed to trusts' financial distress, and action to tackle this problem is welcome, albeit late. The NHS will not solve the problem of reliance on agency staff until it solves its wider workforce planning issues.

    We recognise the immense challenge of achieving financial and service sustainability when demand is rising and budgets are tight, and acknowledge the ongoing efforts of NHS England and NHS Improvement to find solutions. But there is much to do to produce the convincing plan necessary for the NHS to get itself back into financial balance.

    So, in spite of a record budget the "Envy of the World" is still crap , and "one of the worst healthcare systems in the advanced world" ((c) OECD)?
    Never trust the Tories with the NHS
    Never the fault of the large, inefficient bureaucratic organisation that it is a large, inefficient bureaucratic organisation, is it?

    Based on my last hospital experience, our monthly BUPA payment is money well spent.
    You were lucky. Remember Stafford?

    I watched a close relative come near to death thanks to appallingly poor care at hands of the NHS. Has it not been for private intervention they would not be alive today.
    Language, Timothy! *

    * Spotters Badge available for the reference
    Shut up father
    Welcome back - best behaviour!!
    That was what Timothy used to say in response to 'language Timothy!' in 'Sorry' !!! I wasn't telling Geoff to shut up!
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    WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838

    Rubio's 16,000 votes behind in Florida already.

    I'm testing a rule tonight, if you're 5% vote share behind after 10% (?) counted, you go to lose.

    It's based on a few examples where candidates (especially HRC) are supposed to "come back" once X or Y county declares. They haven't so far.

    I strongly suspect that's a good rule of thumb when betting.
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited March 2016
    11% in Florida

    Trump 47
    Rubio 24
    Cruz 16
    Kasich 7

    The exit polls look pretty accurate, so despite a victory for Trump in Florida his defeat in Missouri and Ohio makes this a bad night for him.
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    TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,388

    Rubio now 72,000 votes behind in Florida! The man's a gonner.

    Turnout must be huge based on the number of votes counted so far and percentage reporting.
    If it's DDHq you're working off, they frequently don't match. I think their need for speed means the % reporting doesn't get counted.

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    peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,875
    edited March 2016
    With a couple of notable exceptions, there has been a dearth of quality tipping on PB for the first day of the Cheltenham Festival.
    Conspicuous by his absence today and indeed for an extended period now has been Peter the Punter who graced this site for close on ten years. How he is missed, not only in terms of his excellent racing tips, but also for his expert knowledge of the US political scene, particularly around election time. I must be one of many PBers who very much hopes for and looks forward to his return.
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    MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    edited March 2016
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    TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,388
    Speedy said:

    11% in Florida

    Trump 47
    Rubio 24
    Cruz 16
    Kasich 7

    The exit polls look pretty accurate, so despite a victory for Trump in Florida his defeat in Missouri and Ohio makes this a bad night for him.

    More than 10% in, more than 5% ahead, test #1 for my rule (though an easy one!)
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited March 2016
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    RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Speedy said:

    11% in Florida

    Trump 47
    Rubio 24
    Cruz 16
    Kasich 7

    The exit polls look pretty accurate, so despite a victory for Trump in Florida his defeat in Missouri and Ohio makes this a bad night for him.

    Rubio needs 3% lead elsewhere to win...
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    watford30watford30 Posts: 3,474
    edited March 2016
    tyson said:

    OK- may be true. But if someone is on this site saying that they have just seen their mum die on a NHS ward and are happy with their treatment, you might give them a bit of a wide berth and not get into a political spat.

    Watford, and Geoff FM, Mortimer and now yourself, three quidder, whether you are just tactless or horribly cruel, I don't really care.

    Take a leaf from Rod Crosby's book- learn something.....

    And on that note, I am off going to listen to the radio

    A relative of mine died a couple of weeks back. It was probably inevitable, but on the care was highly variable. His GP admitted him too late, deferring admission for too long, but the admitting ward took excellent care of him and pulled him back from the brink. Unfortunately he was then transferred to a rehab ward who squandered all that good work. All on the NHS, and all in the same hospital. Both bad and good in one place, it is very hard to generalise from.

    Indeed.

    Which is why people bringing up individual experiences - good or bad - doesn't move the debate on.
    You chose to mention the death of your mother to illustrate a post extolling how wonderful the NHS is versus private medicine, in a political discussion on a betting website. And you're questioning the humanity and morality of others? Quite extraordinary.
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    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    :smiley:
    Pong said:

    Speedy said:

    Florida Angry 39
    Ohio Angry 39
    N.C. Angry 40

    According to CNN, anger has dropped by 2 points from the average.

    Sounds very chris morris - are you sure CNN aren't taking the piss? Loooong primaries and the now the anger index....

    "How angry are the people?

    "They're very angry chris"

    "HOW ANGRY?"

    "Two more than average, chris"
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    EPGEPG Posts: 6,013
    Brit punters want US Republicans to be more like their Conservatives so they bet foolishly on candidates like Bush/Rubio/Kasich who embody that wish
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    TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,388
    edited March 2016
    RodCrosby said:

    Speedy said:

    11% in Florida

    Trump 47
    Rubio 24
    Cruz 16
    Kasich 7

    The exit polls look pretty accurate, so despite a victory for Trump in Florida his defeat in Missouri and Ohio makes this a bad night for him.

    Rubio needs 3% lead elsewhere to win...
    He needs a miracle. This is political-life-threateningly poor so far.
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820

    Rubio's 16,000 votes behind in Florida already.

    I'm testing a rule tonight, if you're 5% vote share behind after 10% (?) counted, you go to lose.

    It's based on a few examples where candidates (especially HRC) are supposed to "come back" once X or Y county declares. They haven't so far.

    No, it's a bad rule of thumb. Often you get specific types of county declaring early (eg rural vs urban), and therefore the early results can be very misleading.
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    WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838

    RepNom: If it ain't Trump, then it's Cruz in a 'brokered' convention.

    This really is quite simple, isn't it? The delegate maths and Byzantine rules do allow some ratting after the first ballot, if Trump doesn't make the 1,237 before the convention. But, given that some delegates will still be bound, and given Ted Cruz's good organisation, they don't allow for so much ratting that any other candidate outside the top two can get 1,237 delegates, as far as I can see.

    I think that's right.

    Will stop-teh-Trump now rally around Cruz, however much they dislike him?
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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,359
    kle4 said:

    Wanderer said:

    The Morning Star has turned against the Conservative Party!

    htps://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/709852427013464064

    Genuine question, how wide is the circulation of the morning star? I have this vision it is only available in London, but I assume even discounting online it must have slightly wider reach. Socialism has some fans in places other than the capital, I presume.
    10,000ish, apparently, though they're building up a wider electronic readership:

    http://www.newstatesman.com/2015/07/red-all-over-article

    The Holloway Road tube station has four copies a day on sale (and one Socialist Worker) - I pick one up now and then for variety. The writing quality is uneven but they cover things that nobody else does to the same extent, like disputes in Latin America and protests in Africa, as well as occasional non-political things like art and philosophy. They are more open than the Statesman article suggests - the last copy I saw had a savage attack on North Korea as a disgusting and dangerous dictatorship and criticised the paper for having printed a letter from someone else who had praised it. But obviously it's a vehicle for left-wing anti-EU material.

    Sympathies to Tyson for his recent awful loss, and to the other contributors for their own tragedies. I've experienced medical care in four countries (UK, Denmark, Switzerland, US), and it wasn't bad in any of them once you got it (the US problems in cost and access for the uninsured are too well-known to repeat here).There's no question that every health system has good and bad patches, though given adequate funding I do think the NHS makes sense.
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    Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    Blackpool Victoria is a hospital I know well. As a kid I was there several times. It was right on the No. 2 bus route from Poulton to Talbot Road bus station in Blackpool.

    I have expounded here several years ago on the trials and tribulations my daughter had with the NHS. The dedication and caring of the front line NHS staff has never been an issue. Doctors and nursing staff is not a job - it's a vocation. The whole 'consultant' thing is different and I was most unhappy with it in my daughter's case. We eventually had to go private to get the job done properly - in this case her knee.
    tyson said:

    In the last weeks, I've just gone through seeing my mum dying on a NHS ward in truly horrific circumstances. And you know something, I could not have wished for better, more caring treatment from such caring staff. And this was in Blackpool Victoria. To be honest I doubt BUPA, or any other private hospital in the world could have given my mum better care and dignity in these last days.

    So, to be polite, go fuck yourself.

    Mortimer said:

    chestnut said:

    ...

    .

    So, in spite of a record budget the "Envy of the World" is still crap , and "one of the worst healthcare systems in the advanced world" ((c) OECD)?
    Never trust the Tories with the NHS
    Never the fault of the large, inefficient bureaucratic organisation that it is a large, inefficient bureaucratic organisation, is it?

    Based on my last hospital experience, our monthly BUPA payment is money well spent.
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,334
    @tyson I lost my own mother totally unexpectedly in January. I know how much it sucks. For whatever it's worth, you and your family have my deepest sympathy.
    Mortimer said:

    Perhaps one you might not like, but there is no need to be rude or aggressive.

    Actually, I think watford30 was out of order and Tyson's reaction was perfectly understandable given the circumstances.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,119
    Florida now Trump 48%, Rubio 23.5%. Trump will outperform the exit poll on this trend.
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    TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,388

    Rubio's 16,000 votes behind in Florida already.

    I'm testing a rule tonight, if you're 5% vote share behind after 10% (?) counted, you go to lose.

    It's based on a few examples where candidates (especially HRC) are supposed to "come back" once X or Y county declares. They haven't so far.

    No, it's a bad rule of thumb. Often you get specific types of county declaring early (eg rural vs urban), and therefore the early results can be very misleading.
    It didn't happen in Michigan (Dem or Rep), it didn't happen in Colorado, it didn't happen in Virginia, or Vermont.

    I am not sure of a counterexample, as attractive as your statement sounds hypothetically.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,986
    CNN "Key race alert" is on the same bloody state of Florida that they've got the ticker on in the background.
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    nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800

    chestnut said:

    Never trust the Tories with the NHS

    You have no idea just how repulsive I find your mentality.

    I'm going to a dear relatives funeral next week. The NHS missed the fact she had a fractured spine.

    Well I am sorry about that but if you have not noticed I care passionately about the state of the NHS and the quality of care it provides you have not been looking very hard.

    Just maybe the financial state the Acute hospitals of the NHS may have contributed to what sounds like a tragically poor standard of care

    IMO Lansley is primarily responsible for the sudden deterioration of Acute finances due to his Conflict of interest reforms. The PAC is only saying what I have been posting for 3 years on here.

    Sad but true
    I bet there are few people who in their life history have not had relatives or friends who have not over the last 68 years felt let down by the NHS [ clearly in Stafford, there were 1000s] - others who've had good care and prompt treatment .... And this through all governments and through how many minor and major re-organisations.
    Very true.

    Personally my family have had cause to thank A&E on several occasions, starting with me personally back in 1978.

    Just think it has become the same as all public service bureaucratic monoliths, such as the BBC and the EU, with massive waste and a culture of cover ups, witness the abuse that whistleblowers have received.
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    CNN is ready for a projection at the top of the hour about Ohio.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,291
    Just watching interesting piece on Vice News about immigration to Israel. Apparently from Europe to Israel it is highest levels for a long long time and largest group are French.
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100

    Florida now Trump 48%, Rubio 23.5%. Trump will outperform the exit poll on this trend.

    We will see, there is nothing from Miami which should be a Rubio stronghold.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,986

    Rubio now 72,000 votes behind in Florida! The man's a gonner.

    Miami still to come, but per my below post, they never make as much difference as people think.

    Trump unbackable but you can lay Rubio at 450 if you have the float :)
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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,359

    Kasich's odds to back him on Betfair are currently 9.4, i.e. 8/1 in old money net of commission, yet 2 or 3 days ago he was twice these odds. Does the wider betting fraternity know something we PBers don't?

    The punters are betting on Kasich being the most acceptable non-Trump left standing (which is a reasonable guess) and that the anti-Trumpers find a way to deny the nomination to Donald (much more dubious - they'd need to start by voting out the 5 state minimum). If Trump and his adherents continued to spiral into quasi-fascism it's possible, but I think Trump sees the danger and is starting to tone it down a bit. I'd think 20-1 was about the right price, but if Kasich wins big tonight his price could shorten for a bit. When do we expect results?
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    TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,388
    Almost no regional variation at all in Florida.
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    WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838

    With a couple of notable exceptions, there has been a dearth of quality tipping on PB for the first day of the Cheltenham Festival.
    Conspicuous by his absence today and indeed for an extended period now has been Peter the Punter who graced this site for close on ten years. How he is missed, not only in terms of his excellent racing tips, but also for his expert knowledge of the US political scene, particularly around election time. I must be one of many PBers who very much hopes for and looks forward to his return.

    I appreciated his posts while I was lurking. Would be great if he started posting again.
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    TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,388
    Well it's a decapitation strategy for Trump.

    On exit poll figures, could have kept Florida and swung Ohio; but presumably wants a dooming defeat for Rubio.
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820

    It didn't happen in Michigan (Dem or Rep), it didn't happen in Colorado, it didn't happen in Virginia, or Vermont.

    I am not sure of a counterexample, as attractive as your statement sounds hypothetically.

    There was a very good one in (IIRC) 2008 - Nick P and others were checking the early results county by county against expectations, and we got some good bets placed because the market was misled in the way I described.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,986

    Kasich's odds to back him on Betfair are currently 9.4, i.e. 8/1 in old money net of commission, yet 2 or 3 days ago he was twice these odds. Does the wider betting fraternity know something we PBers don't?

    The punters are betting on Kasich being the most acceptable non-Trump left standing (which is a reasonable guess) and that the anti-Trumpers find a way to deny the nomination to Donald (much more dubious - they'd need to start by voting out the 5 state minimum). If Trump and his adherents continued to spiral into quasi-fascism it's possible, but I think Trump sees the danger and is starting to tone it down a bit. I'd think 20-1 was about the right price, but if Kasich wins big tonight his price could shorten for a bit. When do we expect results?
    Ted Cruz won't be stitching it up for Kasich.
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,334
    @foxinsoxuk @Big_G_NorthWales further condolences.

    Is it just me, or has it been a really bad winter in terms of the mortality rate? Even allowing for my own tragedy heightening awareness, the numbers of deaths among the families of the students at school has been extraordinary. Plus all these celebrity deaths too.
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    TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,388

    Kasich's odds to back him on Betfair are currently 9.4, i.e. 8/1 in old money net of commission, yet 2 or 3 days ago he was twice these odds. Does the wider betting fraternity know something we PBers don't?

    The punters are betting on Kasich being the most acceptable non-Trump left standing (which is a reasonable guess) and that the anti-Trumpers find a way to deny the nomination to Donald (much more dubious - they'd need to start by voting out the 5 state minimum). If Trump and his adherents continued to spiral into quasi-fascism it's possible, but I think Trump sees the danger and is starting to tone it down a bit. I'd think 20-1 was about the right price, but if Kasich wins big tonight his price could shorten for a bit. When do we expect results?
    Kasich has won Ohio, not doubt about that.
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited March 2016
    Trump will probably win all Florida counties but Miami.
    But it will not get him more delegates.

    Rubio winning 63-20 in Miami.
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    TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,388
    edited March 2016
    Speedy said:

    Trump will probably win all Florida counties but Miami.
    But it will not get him more delegates.

    It may get him the head of Marco Rubio.
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    WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838

    Rubio's 16,000 votes behind in Florida already.

    I'm testing a rule tonight, if you're 5% vote share behind after 10% (?) counted, you go to lose.

    It's based on a few examples where candidates (especially HRC) are supposed to "come back" once X or Y county declares. They haven't so far.

    No, it's a bad rule of thumb. Often you get specific types of county declaring early (eg rural vs urban), and therefore the early results can be very misleading.
    It didn't happen in Michigan (Dem or Rep), it didn't happen in Colorado, it didn't happen in Virginia, or Vermont.

    I am not sure of a counterexample, as attractive as your statement sounds hypothetically.
    The reason your theory appeals to me is that I got suckered into the Hillary-comeback thing in Michigan, so it's kind of a sore topic with me ;)
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    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,934
    tyson said:

    In the last weeks, I've just gone through seeing my mum dying on a NHS ward in truly horrific circumstances.

    Sorry to hear about your mum, tyson.
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited March 2016

    Well it's a decapitation strategy for Trump.

    On exit poll figures, could have kept Florida and swung Ohio; but presumably wants a dooming defeat for Rubio.

    Wrong strategy, he should have gone for Missouri and Ohio.
    Winning Florida by 20 instead of 10, won't net more delegates.
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,956
    ydoethur said:

    @tyson I lost my own mother totally unexpectedly in January. I know how much it sucks. For whatever it's worth, you and your family have my deepest sympathy.

    Mortimer said:

    Perhaps one you might not like, but there is no need to be rude or aggressive.

    Actually, I think watford30 was out of order and Tyson's reaction was perfectly understandable given the circumstances.
    My sympathies.

    I'm not going to point out any of the other false accusations against me tonight; they're meaningless - but if you care to read my comment, you'll see it was made to BJO, directly quoting his piggybacking on the natural and understandable reactions of the grieving.
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    RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    edited March 2016
    http://edition.cnn.com/election/primaries/states/fl/

    maybe a bit closer in the panhandle.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,986

    It didn't happen in Michigan (Dem or Rep), it didn't happen in Colorado, it didn't happen in Virginia, or Vermont.

    I am not sure of a counterexample, as attractive as your statement sounds hypothetically.

    There was a very good one in (IIRC) 2008 - Nick P and others were checking the early results county by county against expectations, and we got some good bets placed because the market was misled in the way I described.
    Virginia is a classic for the General, the odds generally go too far in favour of the GOP as the rural counties come in before Richmond and the DC suburbs report where they all vote Democrat for some reason.
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    TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,388
    Speedy said:

    Well it's a decapitation strategy for Trump.

    On exit poll figures, could have kept Florida and swung Ohio; but presumably wants a dooming defeat for Rubio.

    Wrong strategy, he should have gone for Missouri and Ohio.
    Winning Florida by 20 instead of 10, won't net more delegates.
    Getting Rubio out the race wins him far more than 66 delegates.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,986
    Jees whats with Miami-Dade, they're in love with Rubio and Hillary lol
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    TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,388
    edited March 2016
    Pulpstar said:

    Jees whats with Miami-Dade, they're in love with Rubio and Hillary lol

    Hispanic or Latino of any race: 65.0%

    - incidentally I do not think Rubio by 40pts will hold even there.
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,956
    On a much lighter note, I'd forgotten just how far Bond had gone before Casino Royale reinvigorated it....
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited March 2016
    It's a good thing that I found and posted the Exit Poll numbers 45 minutes earlier.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,291
    Given the look on the faces of TYT network hosts, I presume Sanders is getting buried.
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    tysontyson Posts: 6,050
    Thanks to all those who expressed their sympathies, particularly yodethur who seems to be going through such a horrible, loss too.

    I wasn't actually trying to make a political point, I was just having a bit of melt down on a site after Mortimer's post hit a nerve.

    I was venturing onto pbCOM for some light relief.......
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Come on at some point they have to call races in Florida, I don't care if polls haven't closed yet.

    Trump and Hillary have won Florida for about 30 minutes now.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited March 2016
    Found the GOP Ohio page on Betfair. Trump currently 6:

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/#/politics/market/1.123432158
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited March 2016

    Speedy said:

    Well it's a decapitation strategy for Trump.

    On exit poll figures, could have kept Florida and swung Ohio; but presumably wants a dooming defeat for Rubio.

    Wrong strategy, he should have gone for Missouri and Ohio.
    Winning Florida by 20 instead of 10, won't net more delegates.
    Getting Rubio out the race wins him far more than 66 delegates.
    No it doesn't, look at Ohio, Rubio being down at 2 means that Kasich wins by 7.
    Kasich may not have won Ohio is Rubio didn't tell his voters to vote Kasich there.
    Same for Cruz in Missouri.
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    Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    Mortimer said:

    On a much lighter note, I'd forgotten just how far Bond had gone before Casino Royale reinvigorated it....

    The invisible car did it for me - and John Cleese pointing out the cup holders.

    We seem to have gone from a glamorous spy thriller - Goldfinger etc - to a biopic with lots of angst.
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    WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838
    edited March 2016


    The punters are betting on Kasich being the most acceptable non-Trump left standing (which is a reasonable guess) and that the anti-Trumpers find a way to deny the nomination to Donald (much more dubious - they'd need to start by voting out the 5 state minimum). If Trump and his adherents continued to spiral into quasi-fascism it's possible, but I think Trump sees the danger and is starting to tone it down a bit. I'd think 20-1 was about the right price, but if Kasich wins big tonight his price could shorten for a bit. When do we expect results?

    If it comes to it that Trump is seen as a quasi-fascist then surely Cruz is a better anti-Trump than Kasich (as in, much easier to install). I mean, you'd take any non-Trump if you see it in those terms?
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,334
    Mortimer said:

    ydoethur said:

    @tyson I lost my own mother totally unexpectedly in January. I know how much it sucks. For whatever it's worth, you and your family have my deepest sympathy.

    Mortimer said:

    Perhaps one you might not like, but there is no need to be rude or aggressive.

    Actually, I think watford30 was out of order and Tyson's reaction was perfectly understandable given the circumstances.
    My sympathies.

    I'm not going to point out any of the other false accusations against me tonight; they're meaningless - but if you care to read my comment, you'll see it was made to BJO, directly quoting his piggybacking on the natural and understandable reactions of the grieving.
    Mortimer, I wasn't criticising you, merely saying that I thought tyson's behaviour was understandable. If you were actually commenting on somebody else's post and I misread it, please put it down to exhaustion sand accept my apologies.

    I'm off to bed. Goodnight all.
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    RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Speedy said:

    Come on at some point they have to call races in Florida, I don't care if polls haven't closed yet.

    Trump and Hillary have won Florida for about 30 minutes now.

    Any minute now, I'd guess.
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    TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,388
    Speedy said:

    Speedy said:

    Well it's a decapitation strategy for Trump.

    On exit poll figures, could have kept Florida and swung Ohio; but presumably wants a dooming defeat for Rubio.

    Wrong strategy, he should have gone for Missouri and Ohio.
    Winning Florida by 20 instead of 10, won't net more delegates.
    Getting Rubio out the race wins him far more than 66 delegates.
    No it doesn't, look at Ohio, Rubio being down at 2 means that Kasich wins by 7.
    Of course it does.

    It'll get him more, west and east coasts. It doesn't matter if some go to Kasich, Kasich might not even make the threshold in some of those places.
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited March 2016
    1% in N.C.

    Trump 40
    Cruz 32
    Kasich 14
    Rubio 10
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,986
    How many bloody key race alerts do CNN need :p
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    I'm calling N.C for Hillary, shock.
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    ydoethur said:

    @foxinsoxuk @Big_G_NorthWales further condolences.

    Is it just me, or has it been a really bad winter in terms of the mortality rate? Even allowing for my own tragedy heightening awareness, the numbers of deaths among the families of the students at school has been extraordinary. Plus all these celebrity deaths too.

    In the last year I have had a frightening number of relatives, friends and work colleagues die. It certainly is a bad year from my perspective. No-one quite as close as my mother though, so my condolences to tyson.

    Being in the business is both a boon (in terms of understanding what is going on) and a curse too for much the same reason.



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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,986
    Florida is full of old people, was always going to be a shoo in for Hillary :p
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    TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,388
    Speedy said:

    1% in N.C.

    Trump 40
    Cruz 32
    Kasich 14
    Rubio 10

    Approx 10% in : http://www.decisiondeskhq.com/results/2016/primary/gop/president/north-carolina/
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    nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800
    tyson said:

    Thanks to all those who expressed their sympathies, particularly yodethur who seems to be going through such a horrible, loss too.

    I wasn't actually trying to make a political point, I was just having a bit of melt down on a site after Mortimer's post hit a nerve.

    I was venturing onto pbCOM for some light relief.......

    Condolences Tyson, a horrible time that inevitably comes to us all, doesn't make it any easier though.
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    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Tim Stanley
    In 2011, the very first blog I wrote for the Telegraph said that Trump was a serious presidential candidate https://t.co/hyv445oJyl
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited March 2016
    AndyJS said:

    Found the GOP Ohio page on Betfair. Trump currently 6:

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/#/politics/market/1.123432158

    Hope you made money with me finding and posting the Exit Poll numbers 45 minutes before polls closed.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,291
    Pulpstar said:

    Florida is full of old people, was always going to be a shoo in for Hillary :p

    This time of year, all the snowbirds are in Florida too...Its a right pain in the ass.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,291
    edited March 2016
    If you want a laugh, find the Bernire2016tv Live Stream on Youtube, the guy is having a metldown...Its makes some of the worst ranting tw@tters look sane.
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    TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,388
    Rubio at 80s on betfair, worse than Christie/Bush on the days they dropped out.
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    oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,831
    Pulpstar said:

    Florida is full of old people, was always going to be a shoo in for Hillary :p

    If age were the only criteria, Sanders would be getting all the zimmer frame votes... but he isn't!
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    TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,388
    Currently a fourth place finish for Rubio in NC
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    nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800

    ydoethur said:

    @foxinsoxuk @Big_G_NorthWales further condolences.

    Is it just me, or has it been a really bad winter in terms of the mortality rate? Even allowing for my own tragedy heightening awareness, the numbers of deaths among the families of the students at school has been extraordinary. Plus all these celebrity deaths too.

    In the last year I have had a frightening number of relatives, friends and work colleagues die. It certainly is a bad year from my perspective. No-one quite as close as my mother though, so my condolences to tyson.

    Being in the business is both a boon (in terms of understanding what is going on) and a curse too for much the same reason.



    Fox my reply to your post earlier got wiped.

    I totally agree that Exeter are a great insurer, probably my favourite but they only cover individuals not company policies.

    Vitality are very good on the company stuff, WPA also, and Benenden are OK but I prefer Surgery Choices from Westfield.
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    6% in N.C.

    Trump 41
    Cruz 31
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    MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Florida gone and N. Carolina going Trump.
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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,359

    Speedy said:

    Full Exit Poll leaks:

    https://twitter.com/ryangrim/status/709872984014659584

    https://twitter.com/ryangrim/status/709873140491538432

    The GOP side looks like it has entered in a proper 2 front war for Trump.

    Ohio to Kasich

    Florida, Illinois to Trump

    Missouri, North Carolina TCTC
    The Democrat race looks interesting too, with Missouri probably going Sanders. If he can take Illinois and come close in Ohio he'll keep going for a while yet.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,986
    Now that's interesting
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,956
    ydoethur said:

    Mortimer said:

    ydoethur said:

    @tyson I lost my own mother totally unexpectedly in January. I know how much it sucks. For whatever it's worth, you and your family have my deepest sympathy.

    Mortimer said:

    Perhaps one you might not like, but there is no need to be rude or aggressive.

    Actually, I think watford30 was out of order and Tyson's reaction was perfectly understandable given the circumstances.
    My sympathies.

    I'm not going to point out any of the other false accusations against me tonight; they're meaningless - but if you care to read my comment, you'll see it was made to BJO, directly quoting his piggybacking on the natural and understandable reactions of the grieving.
    Mortimer, I wasn't criticising you, merely saying that I thought tyson's behaviour was understandable. If you were actually commenting on somebody else's post and I misread it, please put it down to exhaustion sand accept my apologies.

    I'm off to bed. Goodnight all.
    Of course - no offence taken!

    And I'd agree - the fact that so many of us expressed our sympathies reveals the community that our politics sometimes obscures. Overreaction is a bit of a widespread trait here - as in many areas of political discourse - and we sometimes forget the people behind the posters. Forgive my being a bit tetchy - after posting an otherwise innocuous comment about the bureaucracy of the NHS I felt a bit like I was being attacked from all sides because of circumstances that we were not to know of.

    That said, I do still maintain that the notion of the NHS ceasing to a religion would have profound implications on the UK political landscape, and might be worth exploring at some point.
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    RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737

    Currently a fourth place finish for Rubio in NC

    May well finish 4th everywhere, bar FL.

    Toast.
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    1% in Ohio

    Trump 47
    Kasich 34

    If only that was the final result for Trump.
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    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,884
    Trump lead in Ohio so far 2% in
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,986

    Trump lead in Ohio so far 2% in

    Could be rural counties
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    RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    edited March 2016
    Speedy said:

    6% in N.C.

    Trump 41
    Cruz 31

    Good sample of counties in. Cruz leads in 1, Trump in over 20...
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    Trump lead in Ohio so far 2% in

    I've put small bets on Sanders and Trump in Ohio.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,119
    RodCrosby said:

    Currently a fourth place finish for Rubio in NC

    May well finish 4th everywhere, bar FL.

    Toast.
    Brown bread.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,986
    Whatever the GOP voters want, it is NOT an establishment candidate. Collectively Trump and Cruz have run the table
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited March 2016

    Trump lead in Ohio so far 2% in

    Trump is doing OK so far at the Cleveland suburbs, Kasich doing well in the Columbus suburbs.

    Kasich now in the lead.
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    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,884

    Trump lead in Ohio so far 2% in

    Not now Kasich narrow lead
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    MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Trump leads in Ohio 45.2% to 34.5%
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    DanSmithDanSmith Posts: 1,215
    Trump still looking on course to avoid a contested convention.
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    TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,388
    Trump >5% ahead with >10% counted in NC (test 2)
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    PongPong Posts: 4,693
    What data sources are people using for GOP votes in Missouri/Illinois?
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    DadgeDadge Posts: 2,038
    Grief. The Key Alert "music" on CNN is irritating.
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    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,983
    tyson said:

    OK- may be true. But if someone is on this site saying that they have just seen their mum die on a NHS ward and are happy with their treatment, you might give them a bit of a wide berth and not get into a political spat.

    Watford, and Geoff FM, Mortimer and now yourself, three quidder, whether you are just tactless or horribly cruel, I don't really care.

    Take a leaf from Rod Crosby's book- learn something.....

    And on that note, I am off going to listen to the radio

    A relative of mine died a couple of weeks back. It was probably inevitable, but on the care was highly variable. His GP admitted him too late, deferring admission for too long, but the admitting ward took excellent care of him and pulled him back from the brink. Unfortunately he was then transferred to a rehab ward who squandered all that good work. All on the NHS, and all in the same hospital. Both bad and good in one place, it is very hard to generalise from.

    Indeed.

    Which is why people bringing up individual experiences - good or bad - doesn't move the debate on.
    We all have different experiences of health care. It is neither the worst or the best in the world. For he record as far as I am concerned the NHS doctors killed my father by deciding he was going to die from his heart failure and withdrawing treatment. So I am not exactly enamoured with the system.

    Now my experience is no more or less valid than yours. Personal experience is no judge of the worth of a system like the NHS.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,123
    CNN exits

    Ohio

    GOP
    Kasich 44.5
    Trump 38
    Cruz 19
    Rubio 2

    Dems
    Clinton 52
    Sanders 48


    North Carolina

    GOP
    Trump 40.5
    Cruz 35.5
    Kasich 11
    Rubio 9. 5

    Dems
    Clinton 53
    Sanders 42
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    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,304
    edited March 2016
    This is surely looking very, very good for Trump.

    Why is he still 1.42 for the nomination?
This discussion has been closed.