DAVID WASSERMAN 11:12 PM Mathematically, Trump Is On Pace To Erase His Ohio Loss Guess what? Trump could make up for all 66 delegates he lost in Ohio with huge delegate margins in Illinois and Missouri. In Missouri, Trump is clinging to a lead of just 2,400 votes, but IF things continue as they are, Trump will capture 47 of Missouri’s delegates to just five for Cruz. And in Illinois, where Trump is winning about 40 percent of the vote, he could win all but a handful of congressional districts, giving him perhaps 60 of the state’s 69 delegates. Wow.
That is very good news for Trump. If he wins Missouri.
He will win it. 2,500 ahead and already leading in most of the counties still with outstanding votes.
It looks like Trump will put 160 delegates onto his lead over 2nd placed Cruz, the other two guys in the race have already had their home state bounce.
Fat lady is signing and a 40% return on backing trump at this stage looks more than fair
Turbaned fellow on bbc news just now talking about the budget has claimed that Osborne is planning to cut 50p in every £ of government spending by the end of the decade.
Either Cameron is being disingenuous, poncing around looking like he supports Turkey safe in the knowledge that Cyprus (amongst others) will veto it, or he knows there is some under the table deal in the offing that will circumvent this problem, such as giving them most of the rights of a member without membership, in which case he is being a bloody fool.. tough to know which is worse.
Turbaned fellow on bbc news just now talking about the budget has claimed that Osborne is planning to cut 50p in every £ of government spending by the end of the decade.
The quote from Osborne was 50p in every £100. I fear the chap on the BBC might be getting over excited.
The announcement of the cuts, equivalent to 50p in every £100 the Government spends, will be a marked contrast to the Autumn Statement four months ago, during which Mr Osborne said he had an extra £27billion to spend because of better-than-expected forecasts.
Turbaned fellow on bbc news just now talking about the budget has claimed that Osborne is planning to cut 50p in every £ of government spending by the end of the decade.
The quote from Osborne was 50p in every £100. I fear the chap on the BBC might be getting over excited.
The announcement of the cuts, equivalent to 50p in every £100 the Government spends, will be a marked contrast to the Autumn Statement four months ago, during which Mr Osborne said he had an extra £27billion to spend because of better-than-expected forecasts.
Turbaned fellow on bbc news just now talking about the budget has claimed that Osborne is planning to cut 50p in every £ of government spending by the end of the decade.
The quote from Osborne was 50p in every £100. I fear the chap on the BBC might be getting over excited.
I was aware of what Osborne had said, it was why I thought it worth pointing out the muppetry I'd just seen! What's particularly troubling is that the bbc news business lady, Sally Bundock, either didn't know enough to see that he was spewing manure, or didn't care that he was making future cuts sound 10,000% worse than what's planned,;she left it unchallenged.
Either Cameron is being disingenuous, poncing around looking like he supports Turkey safe in the knowledge that Cyprus (amongst others) will veto it, or he knows there is some under the table deal in the offing that will circumvent this problem, such as giving them most of the rights of a member without membership, in which case he is being a bloody fool.. tough to know which is worse.
The two are reconcilable, at least from the snippets above:
We should veto Turkey if they were invited to join at the moment; We should encourage Turkey towards meeting the Acquis commutairre, and if they meet all those criteria then they should be welcomed.
A Turkey which has met all the requirements of membership would be a very different place politically to the Turkey of today. It's also very, very unlikely that Turkey will meet those requirements within a couple of decades at least, given current (lack of) progress and direction.
Even if they did meet the requirements, then there is the final hurdle of getting all the other EU countries to accept them ...
If we Remain in the EU then we have a veto on Turkish membership. If we Leave then we have no say. Vote Remain to have a say on how the EU is run.
Fallacy there somewhere - if we aren't in the EU why should we care how it's run. The leaders are presumably sensible and intelligent so I am sure they'll decide. (Turkey is never getting in anyway - there is no way Greece will not veto an application - it only takes 1)
Turbaned fellow on bbc news just now talking about the budget has claimed that Osborne is planning to cut 50p in every £ of government spending by the end of the decade.
The quote from Osborne was 50p in every £100. I fear the chap on the BBC might be getting over excited.
The announcement of the cuts, equivalent to 50p in every £100 the Government spends, will be a marked contrast to the Autumn Statement four months ago, during which Mr Osborne said he had an extra £27billion to spend because of better-than-expected forecasts.
If we Remain in the EU then we have a veto on Turkish membership. If we Leave then we have no say. Vote Remain to have a say on how the EU is run.
Fallacy there somewhere - if we aren't in the EU why should we care how it's run. The leaders are presumably sensible and intelligent so I am sure they'll decide. (Turkey is never getting in anyway - there is no way Greece will not veto an application - it only takes 1)
"if we aren't in the EU why should we care how it's run"
We will still have a relationship with the EU, whether that is through the EEA or some more vague mechanisms and agreements. A failed EU will hurt us, even if we are outside.
I'd like to think only the most hardcore leaver would wish the EU ill after we left. If/when we leave, a successful EU might help us. It isn't necessarily a zero-sun game.
If we Remain in the EU then we have a veto on Turkish membership. If we Leave then we have no say. Vote Remain to have a say on how the EU is run.
Fallacy there somewhere - if we aren't in the EU why should we care how it's run. The leaders are presumably sensible and intelligent so I am sure they'll decide. (Turkey is never getting in anyway - there is no way Greece will not veto an application - it only takes 1)
"if we aren't in the EU why should we care how it's run"
We will still have a relationship with the EU, whether that is through the EEA or some more vague mechanisms and agreements. A failed EU will hurt us, even if we are outside.
I'd like to think only the most hardcore leaver would wish the EU ill after we left. If/when we leave, a successful EU might help us. It isn't necessarily a zero-sun game.
The same applies to say the USA or ASEAN, we have relationships with them, some worth in trade terms more than the EU, perhaps we should have a say on who they have as their members, obviously any of those would hurt us if they fail, that doesn't mean we should be interfering in their internal affairs.
Even in the EU we will not get a say on the bits that matter, like who is in the Eurozone.
They might have Trump, who makes Goldwater look appealing;
Or they have a party stitch up which worked so well for the Democrats in 1968 when they ditched McCarthy for Humphrey as huge protests went in outside.
In 2008 Paul Linford said that if HRC was the nominee, the race was the Republicans' to lose. At a time when she is older, more disliked and under criminal investigation, that is even more true now. It is incredible how huge a mess the GOP have made of things.
If we Remain in the EU then we have a veto on Turkish membership. If we Leave then we have no say. Vote Remain to have a say on how the EU is run.
Fallacy there somewhere - if we aren't in the EU why should we care how it's run. The leaders are presumably sensible and intelligent so I am sure they'll decide. (Turkey is never getting in anyway - there is no way Greece will not veto an application - it only takes 1)
"if we aren't in the EU why should we care how it's run"
We will still have a relationship with the EU, whether that is through the EEA or some more vague mechanisms and agreements. A failed EU will hurt us, even if we are outside.
I'd like to think only the most hardcore leaver would wish the EU ill after we left. If/when we leave, a successful EU might help us. It isn't necessarily a zero-sun game.
The same applies to say the USA or ASEAN, we have relationships with them, some worth in trade terms more than the EU, perhaps we should have a say on who they have as their members, obviously any of those would hurt us if they fail, that doesn't mean we should be interfering in their internal affairs.
Even in the EU we will not get a say on the bits that matter, like who is in the Eurozone.
If we Remain then we can veto new membership applications, if we leave then we have to rely on others. It is a practical example of influence that we have on how the remainder of our continent is run.
If we Remain in the EU then we have a veto on Turkish membership. If we Leave then we have no say. Vote Remain to have a say on how the EU is run.
Fallacy there somewhere - if we aren't in the EU why should we care how it's run. The leaders are presumably sensible and intelligent so I am sure they'll decide. (Turkey is never getting in anyway - there is no way Greece will not veto an application - it only takes 1)
"if we aren't in the EU why should we care how it's run"
We will still have a relationship with the EU, whether that is through the EEA or some more vague mechanisms and agreements. A failed EU will hurt us, even if we are outside.
I'd like to think only the most hardcore leaver would wish the EU ill after we left. If/when we leave, a successful EU might help us. It isn't necessarily a zero-sun game.
The same applies to say the USA or ASEAN, we have relationships with them, some worth in trade terms more than the EU, perhaps we should have a say on who they have as their members, obviously any of those would hurt us if they fail, that doesn't mean we should be interfering in their internal affairs.
Even in the EU we will not get a say on the bits that matter, like who is in the Eurozone.
Indeed. But my post was responding directly to the "if we aren't in the EU why should we care how it's run" line.
Basically: even if we are outside the EU we should care how it is run.
If we Remain in the EU then we have a veto on Turkish membership. If we Leave then we have no say. Vote Remain to have a say on how the EU is run.
Although if we vote to Leave we would have a lesser interest in whether Turkey is a member of the EU or not.
(It's not going to happen, by the way. The US and the EU have been fighting over Turkey for the last 20 years and the Turks have been playing both sides against each other very effectively)
If we Remain in the EU then we have a veto on Turkish membership. If we Leave then we have no say. Vote Remain to have a say on how the EU is run.
Although if we vote to Leave we would have a lesser interest in whether Turkey is a member of the EU or not.
(It's not going to happen, by the way. The US and the EU have been fighting over Turkey for the last 20 years and the Turks have been playing both sides against each other very effectively)
That depends on what deal we get. If it is an EEA/EFTA deal, then as citizens of the EU Turks would have the right to settle and work in the UK without an restrictions.
If we Remain in the EU then we have a veto on Turkish membership. If we Leave then we have no say. Vote Remain to have a say on how the EU is run.
Although if we vote to Leave we would have a lesser interest in whether Turkey is a member of the EU or not.
(It's not going to happen, by the way. The US and the EU have been fighting over Turkey for the last 20 years and the Turks have been playing both sides against each other very effectively)
If we vote Leave but retain the 4 freedoms as part of a Brexit arrangement then losing the right of veto on new EU members may matter a great deal.
If we Remain in the EU then we have a veto on Turkish membership. If we Leave then we have no say. Vote Remain to have a say on how the EU is run.
Fallacy there somewhere - if we aren't in the EU why should we care how it's run. The leaders are presumably sensible and intelligent so I am sure they'll decide. (Turkey is never getting in anyway - there is no way Greece will not veto an application - it only takes 1)
"if we aren't in the EU why should we care how it's run"
We will still have a relationship with the EU, whether that is through the EEA or some more vague mechanisms and agreements. A failed EU will hurt us, even if we are outside.
I'd like to think only the most hardcore leaver would wish the EU ill after we left. If/when we leave, a successful EU might help us. It isn't necessarily a zero-sun game.
The same applies to say the USA or ASEAN, we have relationships with them, some worth in trade terms more than the EU, perhaps we should have a say on who they have as their members, obviously any of those would hurt us if they fail, that doesn't mean we should be interfering in their internal affairs.
Even in the EU we will not get a say on the bits that matter, like who is in the Eurozone.
Is there really another part of the world that is a more valuable trading partner than the EU?
It looks as if Boris does not want to replicate the Canada deal with the EU on Brexit after all. Looks like someone may have had a word with him about the details. Farage was advocating a Norway-style deal last night, apparently. There's a hell of a difference between the two.
If we Remain in the EU then we have a veto on Turkish membership. If we Leave then we have no say. Vote Remain to have a say on how the EU is run.
Fallacy there somewhere - if we aren't in the EU why should we care how it's run. The leaders are presumably sensible and intelligent so I am sure they'll decide. (Turkey is never getting in anyway - there is no way Greece will not veto an application - it only takes 1)
"if we aren't in the EU why should we care how it's run"
We will still have a relationship with the EU, whether that is through the EEA or some more vague mechanisms and agreements. A failed EU will hurt us, even if we are outside.
I'd like to think only the most hardcore leaver would wish the EU ill after we left. If/when we leave, a successful EU might help us. It isn't necessarily a zero-sun game.
The same applies to say the USA or ASEAN, we have relationships with them, some worth in trade terms more than the EU, perhaps we should have a say on who they have as their members, obviously any of those would hurt us if they fail, that doesn't mean we should be interfering in their internal affairs.
Even in the EU we will not get a say on the bits that matter, like who is in the Eurozone.
Indeed. But my post was responding directly to the "if we aren't in the EU why should we care how it's run" line.
Basically: even if we are outside the EU we should care how it is run.
Absolutely - we will still be 20 miles from the EU whether we are in or out and we will still be the home to millions of EU citizens, while millions of British citizens will continue to live in the EU. Decisions the EU takes will have a significant impact on all our lives whether we are in or out.
If we Remain in the EU then we have a veto on Turkish membership. If we Leave then we have no say. Vote Remain to have a say on how the EU is run.
Although if we vote to Leave we would have a lesser interest in whether Turkey is a member of the EU or not.
(It's not going to happen, by the way. The US and the EU have been fighting over Turkey for the last 20 years and the Turks have been playing both sides against each other very effectively)
If we vote Leave but retain the 4 freedoms as part of a Brexit arrangement then losing the right of veto on new EU members may matter a great deal.
Not with Turkey, there are plenty of other member implacably opposed. That is what given Cameron the freedom to showboat on the subject.
In anycase the deal isn't settled forever, in 10-15 years time we might decide we don't like the 4 freedoms any more, that is the beauty of OUT, if we are in the EEA the British Voters get to decide if we have the four freedoms or not, at the moment in the EU they don't get a choice.
Great panel debate on CBS last night about Rule 40b, trying to fix the nomination, the likely reaction of Trumpers - let's just say the verdict was MAD. And it'll be a bloodbath. The turnout figures Trump's getting is substantial - in Florida, he clocked up 1.2m votes. Romney won with 750k.
The establishment GOP clearly more worried about Trump winning then winning - than winning then losing.
They might have Trump, who makes Goldwater look appealing;
Or they have a party stitch up which worked so well for the Democrats in 1968 when they ditched McCarthy for Humphrey as huge protests went in outside.
In 2008 Paul Linford said that if HRC was the nominee, the race was the Republicans' to lose. At a time when she is older, more disliked and under criminal investigation, that is even more true now. It is incredible how huge a mess the GOP have made of things.
If we Remain in the EU then we have a veto on Turkish membership. If we Leave then we have no say. Vote Remain to have a say on how the EU is run.
Although if we vote to Leave we would have a lesser interest in whether Turkey is a member of the EU or not.
(It's not going to happen, by the way. The US and the EU have been fighting over Turkey for the last 20 years and the Turks have been playing both sides against each other very effectively)
If we vote Leave but retain the 4 freedoms as part of a Brexit arrangement then losing the right of veto on new EU members may matter a great deal.
Not with Turkey, there are plenty of other member implacably opposed. That is what given Cameron the freedom to showboat on the subject.
So why is Leave running scare stories of Turks overwhelming our NHS?
It looks as if Boris does not want to replicate the Canada deal with the EU on Brexit after all. Looks like someone may have had a word with him about the details. Farage was advocating a Norway-style deal last night, apparently. There's a hell of a difference between the two.
Norway-style? With continued contributions and continued free movement? Really?
If we Remain in the EU then we have a veto on Turkish membership. If we Leave then we have no say. Vote Remain to have a say on how the EU is run.
Although if we vote to Leave we would have a lesser interest in whether Turkey is a member of the EU or not.
(It's not going to happen, by the way. The US and the EU have been fighting over Turkey for the last 20 years and the Turks have been playing both sides against each other very effectively)
If we vote Leave but retain the 4 freedoms as part of a Brexit arrangement then losing the right of veto on new EU members may matter a great deal.
Not with Turkey, there are plenty of other member implacably opposed. That is what given Cameron the freedom to showboat on the subject.
So why is Leave running scare stories of Turks overwhelming our NHS?
Because they are telling whoppers to win, just like Remain, surprised you are surprised.
If your opponent is lying through his teeth with Project Fear, it might be righteous to sit there and only tell the gospel truth, but there are no prizes in politics for being selfrighteous and losing - ask the Liberal Democrats
So how feasible is it for Trump to get over the line now?
Can he do it? WILL he do it?
I give you another opportunity to withdraw the slur you made last night.
No. It was not a slur; it was a fair comment.
And I will comment as I see fit on the EU referendum Alastair, and my perceptions of the motives of those who vote either way, based upon what they say, just as you do.
If we Remain in the EU then we have a veto on Turkish membership. If we Leave then we have no say. Vote Remain to have a say on how the EU is run.
Fallacy there somewhere - if we aren't in the EU why should we care how it's run. The leaders are presumably sensible and intelligent so I am sure they'll decide. (Turkey is never getting in anyway - there is no way Greece will not veto an application - it only takes 1)
"if we aren't in the EU why should we care how it's run"
We will still have a relationship with the EU, whether that is through the EEA or some more vague mechanisms and agreements. A failed EU will hurt us, even if we are outside.
I'd like to think only the most hardcore leaver would wish the EU ill after we left. If/when we leave, a successful EU might help us. It isn't necessarily a zero-sun game.
The same applies to say the USA or ASEAN, we have relationships with them, some worth in trade terms more than the EU, perhaps we should have a say on who they have as their members, obviously any of those would hurt us if they fail, that doesn't mean we should be interfering in their internal affairs.
Even in the EU we will not get a say on the bits that matter, like who is in the Eurozone.
Indeed. But my post was responding directly to the "if we aren't in the EU why should we care how it's run" line.
Basically: even if we are outside the EU we should care how it is run.
Absolutely - we will still be 20 miles from the EU whether we are in or out and we will still be the home to millions of EU citizens, while millions of British citizens will continue to live in the EU. Decisions the EU takes will have a significant impact on all our lives whether we are in or out.
Less than that SO, surely? Or are Ireland planning on withdrawal too removing our land border with the EU?
I would get out more, but it's more fun being a pedant!
If we Remain in the EU then we have a veto on Turkish membership. If we Leave then we have no say. Vote Remain to have a say on how the EU is run.
Although if we vote to Leave we would have a lesser interest in whether Turkey is a member of the EU or not.
(It's not going to happen, by the way. The US and the EU have been fighting over Turkey for the last 20 years and the Turks have been playing both sides against each other very effectively)
That depends on what deal we get. If it is an EEA/EFTA deal, then as citizens of the EU Turks would have the right to settle and work in the UK without an restrictions.
Sure. That's why I said "lesser" rather than "no". I wasn't specifically thinking about EEA - even if we are completely disentangled from the EU in all forms, we always have an interest in the doings of our neighbours
It looks as if Boris does not want to replicate the Canada deal with the EU on Brexit after all. Looks like someone may have had a word with him about the details. Farage was advocating a Norway-style deal last night, apparently. There's a hell of a difference between the two.
The advantage of being independent, of course, is that our government can decide which route they want to pursue.
If we Remain in the EU then we have a veto on Turkish membership. If we Leave then we have no say. Vote Remain to have a say on how the EU is run.
Although if we vote to Leave we would have a lesser interest in whether Turkey is a member of the EU or not.
(It's not going to happen, by the way. The US and the EU have been fighting over Turkey for the last 20 years and the Turks have been playing both sides against each other very effectively)
That depends on what deal we get. If it is an EEA/EFTA deal, then as citizens of the EU Turks would have the right to settle and work in the UK without an restrictions.
Are you seriously suggesting that if the other 27 members of the EU were willing to have Turkey join, including even Greece and Cyprus, that the UK ever either would or should veto Turkey instead?
Turbaned fellow on bbc news just now talking about the budget has claimed that Osborne is planning to cut 50p in every £ of government spending by the end of the decade.
The quote from Osborne was 50p in every £100. I fear the chap on the BBC might be getting over excited.
The announcement of the cuts, equivalent to 50p in every £100 the Government spends, will be a marked contrast to the Autumn Statement four months ago, during which Mr Osborne said he had an extra £27billion to spend because of better-than-expected forecasts.
Turbaned fellow on bbc news just now talking about the budget has claimed that Osborne is planning to cut 50p in every £ of government spending by the end of the decade.
The quote from Osborne was 50p in every £100. I fear the chap on the BBC might be getting over excited.
The announcement of the cuts, equivalent to 50p in every £100 the Government spends, will be a marked contrast to the Autumn Statement four months ago, during which Mr Osborne said he had an extra £27billion to spend because of better-than-expected forecasts.
Comments
Sanders' lead down to 4,779.
Trump's lead down to 2,111.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/
Fat lady is signing and a 40% return on backing trump at this stage looks more than fair
There are only about 19K votes left.
Cruz may close the gap by around 100-500 votes.
I think I'm ready to call Missouri for Trump.
And with that goodnight or goodmorning.
Still, there could be a recount!
On sunday Marr show, Osborne appeared to say we would veto Turkey joining. Yet Cameron has said we would welcome it.
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/03/camerons-support-for-turkeys-eu-membership-should-worry-us-all/
But he was still going to have to cut, despite the £27bn bonus.
Remain is absolutely united and offering a single, coherent vision for the future
TM @AlastairMeeks
We should veto Turkey if they were invited to join at the moment;
We should encourage Turkey towards meeting the Acquis commutairre, and if they meet all those criteria then they should be welcomed.
A Turkey which has met all the requirements of membership would be a very different place politically to the Turkey of today. It's also very, very unlikely that Turkey will meet those requirements within a couple of decades at least, given current (lack of) progress and direction.
Even if they did meet the requirements, then there is the final hurdle of getting all the other EU countries to accept them ...
There £27bn was a one off, it reduces the debt, but not the deficit which is still making things worse every year.
Can he do it? WILL he do it?
We will still have a relationship with the EU, whether that is through the EEA or some more vague mechanisms and agreements. A failed EU will hurt us, even if we are outside.
I'd like to think only the most hardcore leaver would wish the EU ill after we left. If/when we leave, a successful EU might help us. It isn't necessarily a zero-sun game.
Even in the EU we will not get a say on the bits that matter, like who is in the Eurozone.
They might have Trump, who makes Goldwater look appealing;
Or they have a party stitch up which worked so well for the Democrats in 1968 when they ditched McCarthy for Humphrey as huge protests went in outside.
In 2008 Paul Linford said that if HRC was the nominee, the race was the Republicans' to lose. At a time when she is older, more disliked and under criminal investigation, that is even more true now. It is incredible how huge a mess the GOP have made of things.
Basically: even if we are outside the EU we should care how it is run.
(It's not going to happen, by the way. The US and the EU have been fighting over Turkey for the last 20 years and the Turks have been playing both sides against each other very effectively)
In anycase the deal isn't settled forever, in 10-15 years time we might decide we don't like the 4 freedoms any more, that is the beauty of OUT, if we are in the EEA the British Voters get to decide if we have the four freedoms or not, at the moment in the EU they don't get a choice.
The establishment GOP clearly more worried about Trump winning then winning - than winning then losing.
If your opponent is lying through his teeth with Project Fear, it might be righteous to sit there and only tell the gospel truth, but there are no prizes in politics for being selfrighteous and losing - ask the Liberal Democrats
And I will comment as I see fit on the EU referendum Alastair, and my perceptions of the motives of those who vote either way, based upon what they say, just as you do.
I would get out more, but it's more fun being a pedant!
What I'm not 100% sure of is whether he will actually cross the line.
Some desperate talking up of Kasich last night, he only won his home state by a handful of points.
No imaginary bonuses this time, reality starts to beckon
he must know how Nicola feels then