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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » After tonight the Republican race could be down to just Trump versus Cruz
Tonight’s a massive one in the fight for the Republican nomination. There are five big primarieswith a total of 358 delgates at stake. To put that into context Trump currently leads Cruz by 460 to 370 and 1237 are required for victory.
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https://twitter.com/wintrthur/status/709839816607850498
http://i.imgur.com/sllN7bJ.jpg
The official explanation is that if you are not a registered republican then you can vote for any other republican but Trump.
https://next.ft.com/content/f311157e-ead6-11e5-888e-2eadd5fbc4a4#ixzz430RzZJBm …
The person complaining probably didn't realize.
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/03/top-conservatives-gather-to-plot-third-party-run-against-trump-220786
https://twitter.com/DavidShuster/status/709844940713553920
The consensus among the anti-Trumps is that they break off and nominate Rick Perry as an independent conservative, if they fail to stop Trump winning the GOP nomination.
It gives an idea of desperation and stupidity that is prevalent among the GOP establishment.
The idea that China or the US is suddenly going to give us trade deals unavailable to anyone else in the world is fantasy.
You won't last long in the EU debate :-)
* TM T Blair
Germany taking the piss out of Britain? Never!
Could the CSU be tempted ?
The CSU are arguing hard with Merkel on the migration crisis. One statistic lurking among the analysis from the German regionals was 65-75% of AfD voters said they would consider voting CSU if they were standing in their Land.
I wonder if Seehofer might consider standing in all 18 Lander and not just Bavaria,
http://www.faz.net/aktuell/politik/fluechtlingskrise/gabriel-seehofer-faellt-merkel-bei-tuerkei-verhandlung-in-den-ruecken-14126961.html
The Swiss deal is not a great deal. Under its terms, Chinese companies are allowed to own banking licenses in Switzerland, and sell financial services products there. They can also buy Swiss banks, insurance companies and other financial service providers. In return, the Swiss can buy up to 49.9% of Chinese banks. The Swiss government is removing the tariffs on about 85% of Chinese imports to Switzerland. In return, tariffs on Swiss drugs are eliminated, and the tariff on Swiss watches going into China is cut from 12.5% to 7.5%. Over 10 years.
In fact, both the TPP and the China deal are classic examples of big countries bullying little ones in trade negotiations.
By contrast, the EFTA deals are largely excellent. It has established deals with all the same places as the EU, plus Canada, and the GCC.
Betrayed by party leadership.
N.C 56%
OHIO 57%
Outsider
N.C 54
OHIO 50
Seems good for Trump.
Looks like a 33% floor for him in Ohio, slightly higher for Trump in N.C.
Did he allow for the sound finances that Brown inherited as opposed to the dreadful ones bequeathed?
Did he allow for the terrible state inherited after the winter of discontent and the IMF?
And so on and so forth.
Of course, that equally applies to a conservative anti-Trump candidate or Trump himself if the GOP stitch him up at their convention.
Prepare to hang out your broom from the turret.
Someone has sent white flour to Rubio's HQ.
People running in panic.
Our chairman was an old software hand, and he said: "if you sign a deal at $20,000 with x, you will never get more than $20,000 for our software. by selling it at that price, everyone will know you think it's only worth that."
That's what happens if you sign one lopsided trade deal: they all end up lopsided. It's why negotiations go on and on and on and on.
As it happens, I don't think we'd be any worse off by leaving the EU as far as trade. I think we'd piggy back on to the TIPP and could benefit from the deals EFTA has signed with Canada and others.
But you contention that people would be falling over themselves to open up their strategic (particularly financial services) markets to us is deluded.
That means that Kasich has a floor of 35% in Ohio, Trump will win only if he gets more than 80% of the Outsider vote.
https://twitter.com/ABCPolitics/status/709854084916838400
https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/709852427013464064
It doesn't allow much room for his opponents.
1. No more supremacy of EU law and no ECJ.
2. No need - even in the EEA - to pay benefits to migrants.
3. A massive tax saving.
But the 'the rest of the world is desperate to open up their markets to us' is sadly and simply not true. Neither the Chinese not the Indians are going to let British banks into protected domestic markets. Nor are they going to relax foreign ownership rules. (And, by the way, that is mostly what trade negotiations are about these days. The Chinese know that our modest tariffs do little to stop demand for their consumer electronics, so realistically, our leverage is limited.)
"Across GOP contests to date, 35 percent of voters have said they’re looking chiefly for a candidate who “shares my values,” more than have picked any other attribute. They’ve been a strong group for Cruz – he’s won 42 percent in this group – and a dreadful one for Trump, with just 11 percent. (Trump’s come back, overwhelmingly, among voters looking for someone who “can bring needed change” or who “tells it like it is,” who’ve accounted for half of voters so far, while Rubio’s done his best among those most focused on who can win in November.) In preliminary results, nearly four in 10 voters in today’s states are stressing shared values, consistent across all five states."
Now that is unexpected.
That's bad for Trump.
Inside the EU we don't even have a free trade agreement with Australia FFS!
Bad night for Trump it seems.
The Committee concludes the financial performance of NHS trusts and NHS foundation trusts has deteriorated sharply and this trend is not sustainable.
The Committee highlights the "long-term damage" to trusts' finances caused by unrealistic government efficiency targets, and describes the data used to estimate trusts' potential cost savings targets as "seriously flawed".
It concludes the current system for paying providers "is not fit-for-purpose as it does not incentivise the right behaviours needed for joined-up healthcare services
Report summary
The financial health of NHS trusts and NHS foundation trusts has significantly worsened in the last three financial years. Trusts had a net deficit of £843 million in 2014–15, which is a severe decline from trusts' £91 million deficit in 2013–14, and £592 million surplus in 2012–13.
Trusts' finances look set to deteriorate further—halfway through 2015–16 three quarters of trusts had a deficit, and their total overspend could rise to around £2.5 billion.
The Department, NHS England and NHS Improvement have not taken action soon enough to keep trusts in financial balance. The target for trusts to make 4% efficiency savings across the board is unrealistic and better data is needed for more informed savings and efficiency targets.
Current system "not fit-for-purpose"
Failings in the system for paying providers need to be addressed as a matter of urgency, with NHS Improvement and NHS England acknowledging that the current system is not fit-for-purpose as it does not incentivise the right behaviours needed for joined-up healthcare services.
Spending on agency staff has contributed to trusts' financial distress, and action to tackle this problem is welcome, albeit late. The NHS will not solve the problem of reliance on agency staff until it solves its wider workforce planning issues.
We recognise the immense challenge of achieving financial and service sustainability when demand is rising and budgets are tight, and acknowledge the ongoing efforts of NHS England and NHS Improvement to find solutions. But there is much to do to produce the convincing plan necessary for the NHS to get itself back into financial balance.
Let me guess: with Trump finished for good, and his candidature definitely dead?
Trump comes out so much under target that it will be extremely unlikely for him to reach 1237 even if he outperforms in N.Y and California.
https://twitter.com/ThisWeekABC/status/709860379590041606
I didn't, wondering if it is worth it. I presume it was a lovely soft soap jobbie.
Ohio GOP late deciders 33%
Florida late deciders 28%
Missouri late deciders 38%.
Remember the higher it is the worse for Trump.
http://www.vox.com/2016/3/15/11225216/bernie-sanders-super-tuesday-two
But they don't.
Shock Illinois exit poll: Hispanics voting 65-35 @BernieSanders over @hillaryclinton. If that holds, Clinton will lose IL. #DemPrimary
Ohio Angry 39
N.C. Angry 40
According to CNN, anger has dropped by 2 points from the average.
Kasich 54
Trump 28
Kasich won Ohio.
The case against free trade isn't that it is bad in itself and is not the end goal of world economic development, but that until the behemoths of the developing world have caught up, the disruption caused by wage arbitrage has too great a human cost in the already industrialised societies. It may yet prove to have a geostrategic cost at some point as well.
"How angry are the people?
"They're very angry chris"
"HOW ANGRY?"
"Two more than average, chris"