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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Back at Westminster the wait continues

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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    SeanT said:

    I'm officially changing my prediction to

    REMAIN: 58

    LEAVE: 42

    Rubbish. The winner will take less than 55%.
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    tlg86 said:

    Hang on. I'm confused about the four years and seven years. So it's a four year restriction on claiming benefits, but eventually that rule will end after seven years? Thanks Dave, but no deal.

    The restriction will end in 2028 by which time the UK will no doubt have amended the benefit system to a pay in get out basis
  • Options

    I've been on a flight and missed all the excitement. What emotions have I missed?

    Astonishment, mainly.
    And a slightly queasy feeling by a lot of LEAVE supporters who have once again been reminded just how stupid politicians are.
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    Pulpstar said:

    isam said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    George Galloway? The Leave side want to woo Tory waverers with George Galloway???

    Well he could win Leave some of the Socialist Worker vote!
    Well, if you want to gain left wing votes for Leave, you have to be willing to work with left wing people, horrible as it may seem. Leave can't be an exclusively right wing campaign.
    Leave's problem is that there is virtually noone from the soft left onboard. Kate Hoey has always seen to be at odds with the Labour leadership anyway and is too low profile. I was wondering if my MP, Natascha Engel might come out for "Leave" (Some of her voting patterns have been euroscpetic before she became Ways and means) but it seems she is remain. The void from moderate Labour is enourmous, and Leave's biggest problem.
    And they thought someone who is practically a fascist would help, did they? FFS!

    It shows a complete lack of political awareness about the "left" from GO to my mind.

    Bone: "We need someone from the left"

    Farage: "Oh I know, lets invite Galloway"

    Bone: "Great idea ! Lefties love Galloway !"
    You'd be thought Hoey would have known a bit about it?
    Hmm I reckon Farage is calling the shots, Bone 2nd in command there.
    Mrs Bone would be a better choice.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,146
    Masterful nonsense from Cameron on the second referendum question. "People who want to leave should have the confidence to vote for that and not for something else!" Yes, but the question is whether people who want to stay should vote Leave in the hope of a more significant renegotiation.
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,920
    I quite like The Gorgeous One. He does pull off wearing a hat (something not everyone can do) you've got to give him that?
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,002

    I've been on a flight and missed all the excitement. What emotions have I missed?

    Amazement.

    Your leave bet is underwater now too. Probably permanently.
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    WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838

    I've been on a flight and missed all the excitement. What emotions have I missed?

    A zen-like calm has prevailed all evening.
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    edited February 2016

    It was certainly pretty damned stupid to have bigged up his "surprise speaker" status at the top of the bill. How many of those who walked thought it was going to be Boris?

    To be fair, the surprise was bigger than it would have been if it had been Boris.

    Just not in a way helpful to the Leave cause.
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,205

    tlg86 said:

    Hang on. I'm confused about the four years and seven years. So it's a four year restriction on claiming benefits, but eventually that rule will end after seven years? Thanks Dave, but no deal.

    The restriction will end in 2028 by which time the UK will no doubt have amended the benefit system to a pay in get out basis
    Not if Labour are back in power before then! I'd have more respect for the Tories if they went down the road of cutting benefits for everyone and not relying on the EU being nice to us.
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    MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    Scott_P said:
    Trying to have a conversation with felix reminds me of negotiating with this guy back in 1992-95 when he was Iraqi Foreign Minister (before becoming our beloved comical Minister of Information on the roof of the Palestine Hotel). :)
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    TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,002

    I've been on a flight and missed all the excitement. What emotions have I missed?

    Astonishment, mainly.
    Lets ignore Galloway and that earlier SC poll - and cheer ourselves up with this:
    Latest Emerson tracking poll in SC GOP: Trump 36% Rubio 20% Cruz 19% Bush 10% Kasich 10% Carson 6%

    Shared 2 min ago
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,990
    edited February 2016
    Wanderer said:

    I've been on a flight and missed all the excitement. What emotions have I missed?

    A zen-like calm has prevailed all evening.
    What on earth are you talking about? There was the sensational revelation that we may actually be getting an AV-related thread this weekend :o:D
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    What does George Galloway bring to Leave that Frank Field and Kate Hoey don't?

    You do remember Galloway campaigned for NO during IndyRef in 2014?
    I do, but that wasn't my fight. That was a matter for Scots.
    Really? I remember you being rather vocal about it on here at the time.
    I wanted Scotland to remain a part of the Union, in the same way I want Leicester to win the Premier League
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    Pulpstar said:

    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    George Galloway? The Leave side want to woo Tory waverers with George Galloway???

    Well he could win Leave some of the Socialist Worker vote!
    Well, if you want to gain left wing votes for Leave, you have to be willing to work with left wing people, horrible as it may seem. Leave can't be an exclusively right wing campaign.
    Leave's problem is that there is virtually noone from the soft left onboard. Kate Hoey has always seen to be at odds with the Labour leadership anyway and is too low profile. I was wondering if my MP, Natascha Engel might come out for "Leave" (Some of her voting patterns have been euroscpetic before she became Ways and means) but it seems she is remain. The void from moderate Labour is enourmous, and Leave's biggest problem.
    I don't actually know much about internal Labour divisions and who is left/right etc within the party except for the very obvious ones. But Labour LEAVE supporters include

    Gisella Stuart
    Kelvin Hopkins
    Jon Cryer
    Kate Hoey
    Graham Stringer
    Roger Godsiff
    Khalid Mahmood
    That's most of my favourite Labour MPs.

    What about Ian Lavery ?

  • Options
    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    Hang on. I'm confused about the four years and seven years. So it's a four year restriction on claiming benefits, but eventually that rule will end after seven years? Thanks Dave, but no deal.

    The restriction will end in 2028 by which time the UK will no doubt have amended the benefit system to a pay in get out basis
    Not if Labour are back in power before then! I'd have more respect for the Tories if they went down the road of cutting benefits for everyone and not relying on the EU being nice to us.
    Labour will be lucky to be back in power before 2030
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    Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Pulpstar said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    George Galloway? The Leave side want to woo Tory waverers with George Galloway???

    Well he could win Leave some of the Socialist Worker vote!
    Well, if you want to gain left wing votes for Leave, you have to be willing to work with left wing people, horrible as it may seem. Leave can't be an exclusively right wing campaign.
    Leave's problem is that there is virtually noone from the soft left onboard. Kate Hoey has always seen to be at odds with the Labour leadership anyway and is too low profile. I was wondering if my MP, Natascha Engel might come out for "Leave" (Some of her voting patterns have been euroscpetic before she became Ways and means) but it seems she is remain. The void from moderate Labour is enourmous, and Leave's biggest problem.
    And they thought someone who is practically a fascist would help, did they? FFS!

    It shows a complete lack of political awareness about the "left" from GO to my mind.

    Bone: "We need someone from the left"

    Farage: "Oh I know, lets invite Galloway"

    Bone: "Great idea ! Lefties love Galloway !"
    IMO, Leave should be wooing Owen Jones to get the youth/Guardianista vote, and someone like Prescott or Blunkett to win over the traditional Labour vote.
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    Pulpstar said:

    I've been on a flight and missed all the excitement. What emotions have I missed?

    Astonishment, mainly.
    Lets ignore Galloway and that earlier SC poll - and cheer ourselves up with this:
    Latest Emerson tracking poll in SC GOP: Trump 36% Rubio 20% Cruz 19% Bush 10% Kasich 10% Carson 6%

    Shared 2 min ago
    Hmm, I'd like to see Rubio lower than that.
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    chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    edited February 2016
    The comfortable middle class love the EU - it's a way of suppressing the less well-off and living cheaply off their backs.

    One of the people on my timeline most enjoying Galloway as a negative happens to be an affluent BBC employee.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,584
    edited February 2016

    I've been on a flight and missed all the excitement. What emotions have I missed?

    It's like been the last days of the Roman empire, but without the booze, sex, orgies, and violence.
  • Options
    RobD said:

    Wanderer said:

    I've been on a flight and missed all the excitement. What emotions have I missed?

    A zen-like calm has prevailed all evening.
    What on earth are you talking about? There was the sensational revelation that we may actually be getting an AV-related thread this weekend :o:D
    Sunil J. Prasannan is calling for a total and complete shut-down of AV threads entering PB.com, until our forum's representatives can work out what the hell is going on!

    :lol:
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    RogerRoger Posts: 18,900
    It's like a done deal Dave....62/38.

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    Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    isam said:
    Are those images telling us this week's guests, or is it telling us what their reactions were when they heard the "Deal"?
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,002
    Danny565 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    George Galloway? The Leave side want to woo Tory waverers with George Galloway???

    Well he could win Leave some of the Socialist Worker vote!
    Well, if you want to gain left wing votes for Leave, you have to be willing to work with left wing people, horrible as it may seem. Leave can't be an exclusively right wing campaign.
    Leave's problem is that there is virtually noone from the soft left onboard. Kate Hoey has always seen to be at odds with the Labour leadership anyway and is too low profile. I was wondering if my MP, Natascha Engel might come out for "Leave" (Some of her voting patterns have been euroscpetic before she became Ways and means) but it seems she is remain. The void from moderate Labour is enourmous, and Leave's biggest problem.
    And they thought someone who is practically a fascist would help, did they? FFS!

    It shows a complete lack of political awareness about the "left" from GO to my mind.

    Bone: "We need someone from the left"

    Farage: "Oh I know, lets invite Galloway"

    Bone: "Great idea ! Lefties love Galloway !"
    IMO, Leave should be wooing Owen Jones to get the youth/Guardianista vote, and someone like Prescott or Blunkett to win over the traditional Labour vote.
    Is Owen Jones an outer ? - I know he gets alot of flak on here, but he can appeal to a certain constituency.
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    Feck me, typing Bacchanalian on an iPhone is a flipping nightmare. Curse you auto-correct.
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    Pulpstar said:

    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    George Galloway? The Leave side want to woo Tory waverers with George Galloway???

    Well he could win Leave some of the Socialist Worker vote!
    Well, if you want to gain left wing votes for Leave, you have to be willing to work with left wing people, horrible as it may seem. Leave can't be an exclusively right wing campaign.
    Leave's problem is that there is virtually noone from the soft left onboard. Kate Hoey has always seen to be at odds with the Labour leadership anyway and is too low profile. I was wondering if my MP, Natascha Engel might come out for "Leave" (Some of her voting patterns have been euroscpetic before she became Ways and means) but it seems she is remain. The void from moderate Labour is enourmous, and Leave's biggest problem.
    I don't actually know much about internal Labour divisions and who is left/right etc within the party except for the very obvious ones. But Labour LEAVE supporters include

    Gisella Stuart
    Kelvin Hopkins
    Jon Cryer
    Kate Hoey
    Graham Stringer
    Roger Godsiff
    Khalid Mahmood
    That's most of my favourite Labour MPs.

    What about Ian Lavery ?

    I think there are others certainly. But these are the ones who are active in either the Labour Europe Safeguards group or Labour Leave.

    Along with Mr Skinner of course who seems to follow Marx's rule when it comes to clubs. And this is a rare case where I probably have to confirm I am talking Groucho not Karl. :-)
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    If - and it is of course a big if - that snapshot that the FT and Telegraph are showing is all there is for safeguarding the city against the Eurozone then I do wonder what Boris will make of it?
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    One for Casino

    PM will unveil proposals for British sovereignty act in next coming days
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    I've been on a flight and missed all the excitement. What emotions have I missed?

    It's like been the last days of the Roman empire, but without the booze, sex, orgies, and violence.
    I'm just off an Easyjet flight so I've already had my full quota of those.
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    Newsnight edited Galloway pretty favourably for Leave there.
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Faisal Islam ‏@faisalislam 9m9 minutes ago
    PM: emergency brake could start in 2017 - that's taking into account European Parliament legislative process - but well after referendum

    Faisal Islam ‏@faisalislam 3m3 minutes ago
    PM: we accept free movement, we've been clear, but this helps us change important aspects of how welfare and migration interact

    Faisal Islam ‏@faisalislam 28m28 minutes ago
    I do not love Brussels I love Britain - PM

    That doesn't ring with confidence.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,002

    Pulpstar said:

    I've been on a flight and missed all the excitement. What emotions have I missed?

    Astonishment, mainly.
    Lets ignore Galloway and that earlier SC poll - and cheer ourselves up with this:
    Latest Emerson tracking poll in SC GOP: Trump 36% Rubio 20% Cruz 19% Bush 10% Kasich 10% Carson 6%

    Shared 2 min ago
    Hmm, I'd like to see Rubio lower than that.
    Wouldn't we all !

    Clinton/Field -6
    Rubio +5
    Biden +2
    Trump +19
    Cruz +9
    Bush -7
    Kasich +7

    Rubio +0
    Trump +5
    Cruz +7
    Bush -10
    Kasich +8
    Carson +3
    Ryan +0
    Romney +1

    Rubio's job tommorow is to beat Jeb Bush and no more than that.
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    Pulpstar said:

    Danny565 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    George Galloway? The Leave side want to woo Tory waverers with George Galloway???

    Well he could win Leave some of the Socialist Worker vote!
    Well, if you want to gain left wing votes for Leave, you have to be willing to work with left wing people, horrible as it may seem. Leave can't be an exclusively right wing campaign.
    Leave's problem is that there is virtually noone from the soft left onboard. Kate Hoey has always seen to be at odds with the Labour leadership anyway and is too low profile. I was wondering if my MP, Natascha Engel might come out for "Leave" (Some of her voting patterns have been euroscpetic before she became Ways and means) but it seems she is remain. The void from moderate Labour is enourmous, and Leave's biggest problem.
    And they thought someone who is practically a fascist would help, did they? FFS!

    It shows a complete lack of political awareness about the "left" from GO to my mind.

    Bone: "We need someone from the left"

    Farage: "Oh I know, lets invite Galloway"

    Bone: "Great idea ! Lefties love Galloway !"
    IMO, Leave should be wooing Owen Jones to get the youth/Guardianista vote, and someone like Prescott or Blunkett to win over the traditional Labour vote.
    Is Owen Jones an outer ? - I know he gets alot of flak on here, but he can appeal to a certain constituency.
    Yes I believe he is.
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    Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited February 2016
    Pulpstar said:

    Danny565 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    George Galloway? The Leave side want to woo Tory waverers with George Galloway???

    Well he could win Leave some of the Socialist Worker vote!
    Well, if you want to gain left wing votes for Leave, you have to be willing to work with left wing people, horrible as it may seem. Leave can't be an exclusively right wing campaign.
    Leave's problem is that there is virtually noone from the soft left onboard. Kate Hoey has always seen to be at odds with the Labour leadership anyway and is too low profile. I was wondering if my MP, Natascha Engel might come out for "Leave" (Some of her voting patterns have been euroscpetic before she became Ways and means) but it seems she is remain. The void from moderate Labour is enourmous, and Leave's biggest problem.
    And they thought someone who is practically a fascist would help, did they? FFS!

    It shows a complete lack of political awareness about the "left" from GO to my mind.

    Bone: "We need someone from the left"

    Farage: "Oh I know, lets invite Galloway"

    Bone: "Great idea ! Lefties love Galloway !"
    IMO, Leave should be wooing Owen Jones to get the youth/Guardianista vote, and someone like Prescott or Blunkett to win over the traditional Labour vote.
    Is Owen Jones an outer ? - I know he gets alot of flak on here, but he can appeal to a certain constituency.
    I think "O-Jo" has publicly flirted with an Out vote in the past. Though he can often come across annoyingly sanctimonious sometimes, he does IMO cut through to the Yoof more than most politicians, and CERTAINLY a hell of a lot more than Farage and co.
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    SeanT said:

    MikeL said:

    Remain 1.41
    Leave 3.35

    Major movement.

    Rightly so. I do believe this is a calamity for LEAVE.

    I'm feeling sad. I wanted a proper, close debate and then to make a proper, tightly contested decision. But it now looks foregone.

    Pffff.
    I've been burying my head in my hands, angrily, over the past hour.

    I don't know who was in on this "surprise" but it'll go down as one of the stupidest decisions in political history.

    It's clear: Farage doesn't want to win.

    Prick.
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,205
    Speedy said:

    Faisal Islam ‏@faisalislam 9m9 minutes ago
    PM: emergency brake could start in 2017 - that's taking into account European Parliament legislative process - but well after referendum.

    So what happens when we vote to stay in the EU and then this doesn't happen?
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    What does George Galloway bring to Leave that Frank Field and Kate Hoey don't?

    You do remember Galloway campaigned for NO during IndyRef in 2014?
    I do, but that wasn't my fight. That was a matter for Scots.
    Really? I remember you being rather vocal about it on here at the time.
    I wanted Scotland to remain a part of the Union, in the same way I want Leicester to win the Premier League
    The form of the current Leicester team is good for Football. In the same way Scotland is good for the Union and the Union is good for Scotland.
    I have no desire to play hamfisted sick jokes with the future of my country... unlike Grassroots Out!
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    I can't get too excited about tonight's rally. We already knew Leave leaders lacked judgement. That should have been priced in.
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    RogerRoger Posts: 18,900
    edited February 2016
    GIN1138 said:

    I think we can, with great confidence, conclude that the divisions between Leave.EU/GO and Vote.Leave are not going to heal any time soon.

    Half of these people campaigning to LEAVE really want to stay (the likes of Farage for example, who is firmly on the EU gravy train, while hating every minute of it ;) )

    We need a huge, popular personality who really wants to leave and isn't concerned about anything else, to come on the scene and take the LEAVE campaign by the scruff of the neck.

    Unfortunately I don't think there's anybody who can do it. So, REMAIN probably wins narrowly, and Cameron and Osborne (and whoever comes after them) will see it as the green light to go "further and faster" into the Superstate.

    UK in the Euro by 2030?
    As soon as a "Huge Popular Personality" comes out for Leave they stop being a huge popular personality and look like a fruitcake
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    EPGEPG Posts: 6,033

    I can't get too excited about tonight's rally. We already knew Leave leaders lacked judgement. That should have been priced in.

    This is what a Eurosceptic looks like
    Spokesmen? Well there's Gove, a lady from Northern Ireland who is somehow Labour's main Eurosceptic, and the loopers...
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    hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591

    I've been on a flight and missed all the excitement. What emotions have I missed?

    It's like been the last days of the Roman empire, but without the booze, sex, orgies, and violence.
    Fantastic analogy Screaming Eagles! As I've said before, Schengen has collapsed and the rest is a domino effect waiting to go down like the Titanic....and this so called agreement is like rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic.

    Meanwhile amidst all the smoke and mirrors on this so called agreement, Christine Lagarde has been won a second term unopposed at the IMF, part of the unelected troika that largely governs European affairs these days.

    Let the people arise. Vote LEAVE.
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    tlg86 said:

    Speedy said:

    Faisal Islam ‏@faisalislam 9m9 minutes ago
    PM: emergency brake could start in 2017 - that's taking into account European Parliament legislative process - but well after referendum.

    So what happens when we vote to stay in the EU and then this doesn't happen?
    They will say "oopps, too late", or a more civilized version of this:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jsW9MlYu31g
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    SeanT said:

    MikeL said:

    Remain 1.41
    Leave 3.35

    Major movement.

    Rightly so. I do believe this is a calamity for LEAVE.

    I'm feeling sad. I wanted a proper, close debate and then to make a proper, tightly contested decision. But it now looks foregone.

    Pffff.
    I've been burying my head in my hands, angrily, over the past hour.

    I don't know who was in on this "surprise" but it'll go down as one of the stupidest decisions in political history.

    It's clear: Farage doesn't want to win.

    Prick.
    Everyone else on tonight presumably also knew who the surprise guest was. You can't just blame Nigel Farage. David Davis , eg, is culpable also.
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,920

    GIN1138 said:

    I think we can, with great confidence, conclude that the divisions between Leave.EU/GO and Vote.Leave are not going to heal any time soon.

    Half of these people campaigning to LEAVE really want to stay (the likes of Farage for example, who is firmly on the EU gravy train, while hating every minute of it ;) )

    We need a huge, popular personality who really wants to leave and isn't concerned about anything else, to come on the scene and take the LEAVE campaign by the scruff of the neck.

    Unfortunately I don't think there's anybody who can do it. So, REMAIN probably wins narrowly, and Cameron and Osborne (and whoever comes after them) will see it as the green light to go "further and faster" into the Superstate.

    UK in the Euro by 2030?
    You are self evidently deranged.
    Wait and see what the establishment does when we vote to remain... Will be seen as the green light to go further and faster.

    Cameron's will probably be had enough of trying to sell the EU to the British people after the referendum to be fair, but you can bet your life Osborne will he hankering to "integrate" further if he becomes PM.

    And lets think what happens when Labour gets back in to power with someone like Ummuna.

    I really think it's possible the establishment will have us in the Euro within most of our lifetimes after we vote to remain. That's the End Game surely?
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,584
    edited February 2016

    SeanT said:

    MikeL said:

    Remain 1.41
    Leave 3.35

    Major movement.

    Rightly so. I do believe this is a calamity for LEAVE.

    I'm feeling sad. I wanted a proper, close debate and then to make a proper, tightly contested decision. But it now looks foregone.

    Pffff.
    I've been burying my head in my hands, angrily, over the past hour.

    I don't know who was in on this "surprise" but it'll go down as one of the stupidest decisions in political history.

    It's clear: Farage doesn't want to win.

    Prick.
    I do have some sympathy for Farage.

    I've been told there was a focus group conducted on behalf of a media organisation, on who should be the front man for Leave.

    The focus group said, if leave wanted to win, the person should have the following characteristics

    1) Competent
    2) Likeable
    3) Good economic reputation.

    You know who the focus group suggested as their top two choices?

    David Cameron and Ken Clarke!
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    Cyclefree said:

    Leave are SO FUCKING stupid.

    A few months back in the first round of the French local elections Le Pen did well. And what happened? In the second round everyone else rallied round to ensure that her party did not win control of regions.

    If you pollute a reasonable argument with revolting people, you lose. It's the emotional vs the rational brain, as MTimT explained earlier.

    And people generally decide on emotion rather than reason.

    Spot on. I am VERY angry about this. Very fucking angry.

    Wankers.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,146
    Tusk quoting Churchill's Zurich speech.
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    tlg86 said:

    Hang on. I'm confused about the four years and seven years. So it's a four year restriction on claiming benefits, but eventually that rule will end after seven years? Thanks Dave, but no deal.

    The restriction will end in 2028 by which time the UK will no doubt have amended the benefit system to a pay in get out basis
    The present government is busy doing its best to make significant cuts to benefits. I suppose people could always vote Labour.
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    Montie isn't happy about the Galloway thing, and asked is it too late for him to join StrongerIN
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,920
    edited February 2016
    Speedy said:



    Faisal Islam ‏@faisalislam 28m28 minutes ago
    I do not love Brussels I love Britain - PM


    Liar. Liar. :smiley:

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    MP_SE said:
    So there are three ferrets in a sack already.
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
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    Speedy said:

    tlg86 said:

    Speedy said:

    Faisal Islam ‏@faisalislam 9m9 minutes ago
    PM: emergency brake could start in 2017 - that's taking into account European Parliament legislative process - but well after referendum.

    So what happens when we vote to stay in the EU and then this doesn't happen?
    They will say "oopps, too late", or a more civilized version of this:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jsW9MlYu31g
    "This deal is getting worse all the time!" - Lando
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    TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    EPG said:

    I can't get too excited about tonight's rally. We already knew Leave leaders lacked judgement. That should have been priced in.

    This is what a Eurosceptic looks like
    Spokesmen? Well there's Gove, a lady from Northern Ireland who is somehow Labour's main Eurosceptic, and the loopers...
    And proberly thousands of labour voters,not to forget them.
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    MP_SE said:
    If that does turn out to be the case it will certainly drag things back for LEAVE.

    The really infuriating thing about today is that if you ignore the Galloway fiasco (a big ask I know but bear with me) then it has been a fantastic day for LEAVE. Gove coming off the fence in our favour and Cameron's deal turning out to be even worse than advertised. This should have been a day to celebrate.

    It can be saved over the weekend if Boris and Priti join Michael, hopefully along with at least a couple more cabinet members. We will have to see.
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,205
    Does anyone know about the opening up of the market to services. I've read before that the EU doesn't do free trade with things like financial services. Cameron says that he's made progress on this - do we have any details and has he got anything worthwhile?
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    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    George Galloway? The Leave side want to woo Tory waverers with George Galloway???

    Well he could win Leave some of the Socialist Worker vote!
    Well, if you want to gain left wing votes for Leave, you have to be willing to work with left wing people, horrible as it may seem. Leave can't be an exclusively right wing campaign.
    Yes but to be fair there are other Eurosceptics they could have chosen. Skinner is supporting LEAVE. Galloway could have supported LEAVE in the streets and townhalls without having to be splashed all over the main stage.
    It was certainly pretty damned stupid to have bigged up his "surprise speaker" status at the top of the bill. How many of those who walked thought it was going to be Boris?
    A lot.

    The problem is that it was heavily trailed to be a Tory bigwig, the thinking was either a (new) cabinet minister or Boris.

    Even if that was never the case, you never ever ever ever make your SPECIAL guest George FUCKING Galloway.

    Total dickwads.
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,920

    Montie isn't happy about the Galloway thing, and asked is it too late for him to join StrongerIN

    Is Montie ever happy about anything? (I know he was for about five minutes in 2001 when IDS become Tory leader but other than that... ? )
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    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    I think we can, with great confidence, conclude that the divisions between Leave.EU/GO and Vote.Leave are not going to heal any time soon.

    Half of these people campaigning to LEAVE really want to stay (the likes of Farage for example, who is firmly on the EU gravy train, while hating every minute of it ;) )

    We need a huge, popular personality who really wants to leave and isn't concerned about anything else, to come on the scene and take the LEAVE campaign by the scruff of the neck.

    Unfortunately I don't think there's anybody who can do it. So, REMAIN probably wins narrowly, and Cameron and Osborne (and whoever comes after them) will see it as the green light to go "further and faster" into the Superstate.

    UK in the Euro by 2030?
    You are self evidently deranged.
    Wait and see what the establishment does when we vote to remain... Will be seen as the green light to go further and faster.

    Cameron's will probably be had enough of trying to sell the EU to the British people after the referendum to be fair, but you can bet your life Osborne will he hankering to "integrate" further if he becomes PM.

    And lets think what happens when Labour gets back in to power with someone like Ummuna.

    I really think it's possible the establishment will have us in the Euro within most of our lifetimes after we vote to remain. That's the End Game surely?
    I will draw a veil over your rant. Not that you deserve it.
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100

    Speedy said:

    tlg86 said:

    Speedy said:

    Faisal Islam ‏@faisalislam 9m9 minutes ago
    PM: emergency brake could start in 2017 - that's taking into account European Parliament legislative process - but well after referendum.

    So what happens when we vote to stay in the EU and then this doesn't happen?
    They will say "oopps, too late", or a more civilized version of this:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jsW9MlYu31g
    "This deal is getting worse all the time!" - Lando
    Cameron could say the same about his deal, but I doubt he will say it in public.
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    Speedy said:
    How reliable is that source?

    Never heard of him.
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,449
    edited February 2016

    Tusk quoting Churchill's Zurich speech.

    The same speech where Churchill said "Britain has its own Commonwealth of Nations"?
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    MP_SE said:
    So there are three ferrets in a sack already.
    Cameron, Corbyn, Farron.
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    pbr2013pbr2013 Posts: 649
    Been offline for a few hours. Dinner. Is there a deal yet?
  • Options
    Frank Field has joined the LEAVE side.
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    Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    I presume the MEPs still have to vote on this to approve the agreement...... After the referendum of course.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,002

    SeanT said:

    MikeL said:

    Remain 1.41
    Leave 3.35

    Major movement.

    Rightly so. I do believe this is a calamity for LEAVE.

    I'm feeling sad. I wanted a proper, close debate and then to make a proper, tightly contested decision. But it now looks foregone.

    Pffff.
    I've been burying my head in my hands, angrily, over the past hour.

    I don't know who was in on this "surprise" but it'll go down as one of the stupidest decisions in political history.

    It's clear: Farage doesn't want to win.

    Prick.
    In other news, Rubio has gone sub Trump in the POTUS market !

    But lets ignore that too.
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    weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    pbr2013 said:

    Been offline for a few hours. Dinner. Is there a deal yet?

    Yes - Dave has rolled over and given up more of what he wanted for a few platitudes.
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    SeanT said:

    MikeL said:

    Remain 1.41
    Leave 3.35

    Major movement.

    Rightly so. I do believe this is a calamity for LEAVE.

    I'm feeling sad. I wanted a proper, close debate and then to make a proper, tightly contested decision. But it now looks foregone.

    Pffff.
    I've been burying my head in my hands, angrily, over the past hour.

    I don't know who was in on this "surprise" but it'll go down as one of the stupidest decisions in political history.

    It's clear: Farage doesn't want to win.

    Prick.
    I do have some sympathy for Farage.

    I've been told there was a focus group conducted on behalf of a media organisation, on who should be the front man for Leave.

    The focus group said, if leave wanted to win, the person should have the following characteristics

    1) Competent
    2) Likeable
    3) Good economic reputation.

    You know who the focus group suggested as their top two choices?

    David Cameron and Ken Clarke!
    Stop winding me up!
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    PeterCPeterC Posts: 1,274

    Cyclefree said:

    Leave are SO FUCKING stupid.

    A few months back in the first round of the French local elections Le Pen did well. And what happened? In the second round everyone else rallied round to ensure that her party did not win control of regions.

    If you pollute a reasonable argument with revolting people, you lose. It's the emotional vs the rational brain, as MTimT explained earlier.

    And people generally decide on emotion rather than reason.

    Spot on. I am VERY angry about this. Very fucking angry.

    Wankers.
    Don't rush to judgment, The Galloway thing was given no worse than neutral coverage on the News and Newsnight.

    This whole campaign could take on a life of its own and lead to some very unpredictable places. Think of the Corbyn election. Who would have thought it? LEAVE could turn into a great vote against the Establishment and all its works.
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    SeanT said:

    MikeL said:

    Remain 1.41
    Leave 3.35

    Major movement.

    Rightly so. I do believe this is a calamity for LEAVE.

    I'm feeling sad. I wanted a proper, close debate and then to make a proper, tightly contested decision. But it now looks foregone.

    Pffff.
    I've been burying my head in my hands, angrily, over the past hour.

    I don't know who was in on this "surprise" but it'll go down as one of the stupidest decisions in political history.

    It's clear: Farage doesn't want to win.

    Prick.
    Everyone else on tonight presumably also knew who the surprise guest was. You can't just blame Nigel Farage. David Davis , eg, is culpable also.
    I'm not sure they did all know.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,167
    GIN1138 said:

    I think we can, with great confidence, conclude that the divisions between Leave.EU/GO and Vote.Leave are not going to heal any time soon.

    Half of these people campaigning to LEAVE really want to stay (the likes of Farage for example, who is firmly on the EU gravy train, while hating every minute of it ;) )

    We need a huge, popular personality who really wants to leave and isn't concerned about anything else, to come on the scene and take the LEAVE campaign by the scruff of the neck.

    Unfortunately I don't think there's anybody who can do it. So, REMAIN probably wins narrowly, and Cameron and Osborne (and whoever comes after them) will see it as the green light to go "further and faster" into the Superstate.

    UK in the Euro by 2030?
    80% of the country does not want the Euro, 95% of the Tory Party, not going to happen however EU ref goes!!
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    Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091

    MP_SE said:
    If that does turn out to be the case it will certainly drag things back for LEAVE.

    The really infuriating thing about today is that if you ignore the Galloway fiasco (a big ask I know but bear with me) then it has been a fantastic day for LEAVE. Gove coming off the fence in our favour and Cameron's deal turning out to be even worse than advertised. This should have been a day to celebrate.

    It can be saved over the weekend if Boris and Priti join Michael, hopefully along with at least a couple more cabinet members. We will have to see.
    And still, the Leavers go on with this Tory-centric view of the world, blissfully unaware that Labour voters are essential for a win. Your funeral I suppose.
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    MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642

    MP_SE said:
    If that does turn out to be the case it will certainly drag things back for LEAVE.

    The really infuriating thing about today is that if you ignore the Galloway fiasco (a big ask I know but bear with me) then it has been a fantastic day for LEAVE. Gove coming off the fence in our favour and Cameron's deal turning out to be even worse than advertised. This should have been a day to celebrate.

    It can be saved over the weekend if Boris and Priti join Michael, hopefully along with at least a couple more cabinet members. We will have to see.
    Ignoring Galloway today was shaping up to be really good for Leave. Galloway is not doubt damaging but he isn't on the front pages tomorrow. Far more people will wake up to see Gove's name across every front page.
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,920
    edited February 2016

    Frank Field has joined the LEAVE side.

    Wasn't he always for OUT?
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    flightpath01flightpath01 Posts: 4,903
    edited February 2016

    SeanT said:

    MikeL said:

    Remain 1.41
    Leave 3.35

    Major movement.

    Rightly so. I do believe this is a calamity for LEAVE.

    I'm feeling sad. I wanted a proper, close debate and then to make a proper, tightly contested decision. But it now looks foregone.

    Pffff.
    I've been burying my head in my hands, angrily, over the past hour.

    I don't know who was in on this "surprise" but it'll go down as one of the stupidest decisions in political history.

    It's clear: Farage doesn't want to win.

    Prick.
    Everyone else on tonight presumably also knew who the surprise guest was. You can't just blame Nigel Farage. David Davis , eg, is culpable also.
    David Davis the worst prime minister we never had. He also works out as the best advert for Vergin Trains.
    PS Mr Meeks.... To me its not that they thought he would be a good ally. That's bad enough for their nouse and attention span. They, whoever they were, actually thought he would be a good surprise guest and top of the bill headline act speaker. 'Dur... Huh?'
    These people are imbicilles and we are expected to treat them as people of knowledge?
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    pbr2013 said:

    Been offline for a few hours. Dinner. Is there a deal yet?

    It can be summarized as this:

    Faisal Islam ‏@faisalislam 28m28 minutes ago
    I do not love Brussels I love Britain - PM

    When no one asked him.
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    Moses_ said:

    I presume the MEPs still have to vote on this to approve the agreement...... After the referendum of course.

    Yes. This is by no means water tight at all. It is also possible that legislatures in a number of other EU countries could vote it down even if their PM/President has agreed it
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    TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362

    Fenster said:

    Fenster said:

    Is there any reason why Dan Hannan isn't leading the Leave campaign.

    I know no politician ticks everyone's box but Hannan is articulate, considered, unfailingly polite and - most importantly of all - very bloody persuasive.

    I'd say he's the best informed anti-EU'r I'm the world.

    His past comments on the NHS are a hindrance
    Hannan almost single handedly cost the Tories the 2010 election and indeed you could argue that his absurd comments did undermine the Tories at a vital pre election time.
    I take the point on his domestic policies but he is undeniably robust on the EU.

    I'm a Remainer but if I were trying to convince voters to dislike the EU, he'd be the bloke I'd be sticking on telly.
    Whatever happened to Douglas Carswell?
    Farage can share a platform with Galloway but not with Carswell.
    I think we can be sure that if Leave win then the fighting will only have just begun.
    Flightpath also posted -

    MP_SE said:
    So there are three ferrets in a sack already.
    Is that the tory ferrets in a sack - lol

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    One for Casino

    PM will unveil proposals for British sovereignty act in next coming days

    Thanks. Suspected as much.
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    GIN1138 said:

    Frank Field has joined the LEAVE side.

    Was he always for OUT?
    I thought so but he was in none of the Eurosceptic Labour groupings and Guido the other day had him listed as REMAIN.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,167
    Pulpstar said:

    I've been on a flight and missed all the excitement. What emotions have I missed?

    Astonishment, mainly.
    Lets ignore Galloway and that earlier SC poll - and cheer ourselves up with this:
    Latest Emerson tracking poll in SC GOP: Trump 36% Rubio 20% Cruz 19% Bush 10% Kasich 10% Carson 6%

    Shared 2 min ago
    SC Clemson GOP
    Trump 28, Cruz 19, Rubio 15, Bush 10, Kasich 9, Carson 6
    http://newsstand.clemson.edu/mediarelations/palmetto-poll-frequent-voters-in-south-carolina-favor-trump/
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,920
    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    I think we can, with great confidence, conclude that the divisions between Leave.EU/GO and Vote.Leave are not going to heal any time soon.

    Half of these people campaigning to LEAVE really want to stay (the likes of Farage for example, who is firmly on the EU gravy train, while hating every minute of it ;) )

    We need a huge, popular personality who really wants to leave and isn't concerned about anything else, to come on the scene and take the LEAVE campaign by the scruff of the neck.

    Unfortunately I don't think there's anybody who can do it. So, REMAIN probably wins narrowly, and Cameron and Osborne (and whoever comes after them) will see it as the green light to go "further and faster" into the Superstate.

    UK in the Euro by 2030?
    80% of the country does not want the Euro, 95% of the Tory Party, not going to happen however EU ref goes!!
    We'll see...
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    chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    All leave need now is a decent front-man/woman.

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    Pulpstar said:

    SeanT said:

    MikeL said:

    Remain 1.41
    Leave 3.35

    Major movement.

    Rightly so. I do believe this is a calamity for LEAVE.

    I'm feeling sad. I wanted a proper, close debate and then to make a proper, tightly contested decision. But it now looks foregone.

    Pffff.
    I've been burying my head in my hands, angrily, over the past hour.

    I don't know who was in on this "surprise" but it'll go down as one of the stupidest decisions in political history.

    It's clear: Farage doesn't want to win.

    Prick.
    In other news, Rubio has gone sub Trump in the POTUS market !

    But lets ignore that too.
    This has also not helped me enjoy this evening.
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,205
    I missed the whole Galloway thing this evening. It sounded farcical but I'm not sure it's as big a deal as some on here are making it out to be. I don't like the guy and don't have much time for his views, but if he thinks that we should leave the EU then that's fine. Not sure the Leave campaign should make him out to be some sort of star, but I don't think it makes much difference.
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    Moses_ said:

    I presume the MEPs still have to vote on this to approve the agreement...... After the referendum of course.

    Yes. This is by no means water tight at all. It is also possible that legislatures in a number of other EU countries could vote it down even if their PM/President has agreed it
    I'm sure said PM/President would explain that it was 'unfortunate' but that 'democracy has to be respected'.
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    hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    Speedy said:
    I hope that's the case. As I said earlier Boris has a keen sense of history. Work with the grain Boris. Work with the grain.
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    GideonWiseGideonWise Posts: 1,123
    A bit of PR orchestrated by Cameron (which everyone knew was going to happen) and an issue which no-one in the public will care about (Galloway) and the leavers on here are in panic mode. Get a grip, leave is in a better position today than yesterday. It's looking like there is a credible and broad spectrum of leave candidates coming forward whilst Cameron has brought back absolutely nothing.

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    Danny565 said:

    MP_SE said:
    If that does turn out to be the case it will certainly drag things back for LEAVE.

    The really infuriating thing about today is that if you ignore the Galloway fiasco (a big ask I know but bear with me) then it has been a fantastic day for LEAVE. Gove coming off the fence in our favour and Cameron's deal turning out to be even worse than advertised. This should have been a day to celebrate.

    It can be saved over the weekend if Boris and Priti join Michael, hopefully along with at least a couple more cabinet members. We will have to see.
    And still, the Leavers go on with this Tory-centric view of the world, blissfully unaware that Labour voters are essential for a win. Your funeral I suppose.
    Sorry Danny you misunderstand me. I think that we are far better off having Frank Field, Jon Cryer and Dennis Skinner than Priti Patel or even Gove.

    But Galloway is a special case where he is probably hated as much by most of the Left wing as he is by the right. He is no asset to a campaign except in very specifically targeted areas.
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,920
    chestnut said:

    All leave need now is a decent front-man/woman.

    And preferably one that isn't on the EU gravy train and wants to sabotage the LEAVE campaign before it's even started. ;)
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    MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    GIN1138 said:

    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    I think we can, with great confidence, conclude that the divisions between Leave.EU/GO and Vote.Leave are not going to heal any time soon.

    Half of these people campaigning to LEAVE really want to stay (the likes of Farage for example, who is firmly on the EU gravy train, while hating every minute of it ;) )

    We need a huge, popular personality who really wants to leave and isn't concerned about anything else, to come on the scene and take the LEAVE campaign by the scruff of the neck.

    Unfortunately I don't think there's anybody who can do it. So, REMAIN probably wins narrowly, and Cameron and Osborne (and whoever comes after them) will see it as the green light to go "further and faster" into the Superstate.

    UK in the Euro by 2030?
    80% of the country does not want the Euro, 95% of the Tory Party, not going to happen however EU ref goes!!
    We'll see...
    Are you a fan of Charlie Wilson's War?
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,144
    I still think Leave has a trump card. And that is Cameron cannot give a straight forward answer to the question: "Did you secure that Britain chooses who comes into its borders, Prime Minister?" And that issue can still be what decides this referendum.
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    GIN1138 said:

    chestnut said:

    All leave need now is a decent front-man/woman.

    And preferably one that isn't on the EU gravy train and wants to sabotage the LEAVE campaign before it's even started. ;)
    I love my trains, except for EU gravy trains :lol:
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    John_NJohn_N Posts: 389
    edited February 2016
    What dimwits some of the Grassroots Outers are, booing and walking out in response to George Galloway. Don't they understand it's a single-issue campaign?

    BTW was he the first choice as the "surprise speaker"?
This discussion has been closed.