BTW I assume you mean Northern Ireland i.e. the 6 counties rather than Ulster which consists of 9, 3 of which are in the Republic........
The nine county 'province' was an Elizabethan creation. Ulster is an older entity than that and its borders have varied considerably over the centuries.
Yup
old Ulster didn't include Cavan, but had Louth instead.
David Cameron has suffered a blow this morning after Martin Schulz, president the European Parliament, told him that the deal could not be legally binding before the EU referendum.
But the date of the Referendum has not been announced yet. This means that the date of the Referendum must be irrelevant, and as had been suggested by other commentators, the European Parliament is going to put the agreement in a drawer and not look at it until after the referendum, when ever Dave decides to call it. So we couldn't wait for them to agree it and then hold the referendum. This has the smell of foul play, it will wait for a REMAIN vote and then eviscerate the agreement in the EU Parliament as senior politicians spread their hands apologetically and tell us it was outside their control, but never mind eh, because we voted to REMAIN.
If that's anything close to what happens, we will be leaving very shortly afterwards as the PM is forced out and replaced by someone who agrees to Referendum II as their first Bill through Parliament!
The technical position as I understand it is:
1. The Parliament votes on the detailed legislation put forward by the Commission. 2. The Commission will put forward detailed legislation once the package has been approved by the Council. In the case of the UK, approval at Council level is withheld until we've had a referendum on whether to agree.
It's therefore not possible for the Parliament to vote on it before the referendum. There is no legislation to vote on. They could, of course, have a motion expressing approval of the package, and that seems to me a reasonable thing to ask them to do before the referendum. But it can't be put into law until we've approved it ourselves.
I think it's a straw man - in practice if the UK votes for the package, the Parliament would be insane to try to reopen the issue, and they really aren't going to. If they did, we would be entitled to hold a new referendum.
Is Kasich going to prove the dark horse of the campaign? On one level, 7% is piss poor. On another, if he knocks out Bush then he's well-placed to pick up most of his support, particularly if Rubio is dropping back too.
Or is this missing the wood for the trees; the wood being that Trump is strolling towards the nomination?
That 50-40 for Clinton is too narrow for her comfort - must be quite a few states where Sanders is close or ahead. I still think she'll make it, but she's about two major mistakes away from disaster (i.e. she can probably afford one, but not two).
And that's with the polls as they are now. What's remarkable is that the momentum remains with Sanders. Where is his ceiling? I'd have expected him to have hit it well before now and yet he keeps rising in the polls. Unless Hillary can arrest that rise then she'll only be about 6% ahead come Super Tuesday. Sure, that'll give her a decent win on the day but Sanders would be likely to take four states, I'd have thought.
One thing though that I don't see being written about: how the Dem dynamic may change with respect to GOP results. If it becomes increasingly clear that Trump is the candidate, surely Dems will start to think, wait a minute, we may not like Hillary much, but by God we don't want to offer any chance that Trump has his hand on the nuclear buttons. I can see Dems swinging back from their little left adventure when faced with this prospect.
On present polling Sanders leads Trump by more than Hillary does so if anything the electability argument favours Bernie at the moment
Jimmy Carter led Ronald Reagan by 60 to 31 at this point in 1980 due to Reagan's perceived 'extremism'. Reagan eventually won a huge 51 to 41 victory. Polls at this stage have a value, probably more so for HRC v Trump as they are known and expected, but I wouldn't focus on them too much.
That was before the Iran hostage crisis really turned bad and the economy went down. Even Democrats liked Reagan on a personal level, not even many in his own party say the same of Trump
Is there anything to which Ulster's answer is not "No"?
BTW I assume you mean Northern Ireland i.e. the 6 counties rather than Ulster which consists of 9, 3 of which are in the Republic........
Across the nine counties, according to the aggregate UK 2011 Census for Northern Ireland, and the ROI 2011 Census for counties Cavan, Donegal and Monaghan, there is a Roman Catholic majority over Protestant of 50.8% to 42.7%.[22]
BTW I assume you mean Northern Ireland i.e. the 6 counties rather than Ulster which consists of 9, 3 of which are in the Republic........
The nine county 'province' was an Elizabethan creation. Ulster is an older entity than that and its borders have varied considerably over the centuries.
Yup
old Ulster didn't include Cavan, but had Louth instead.
Yeah, my great-grandfather was born in Louth in 1850...
Robert Fisk has a bit of a reputation for emphasising flavour and local colour at the expense of balance, but this is quite an interesting piece about shifting allegiances:
David Cameron has suffered a blow this morning after Martin Schulz, president the European Parliament, told him that the deal could not be legally binding before the EU referendum.
But the date of the Referendum has not been announced yet. This means that the date of the Referendum must be irrelevant, and as had been suggested by other commentators, the European Parliament is going to put the agreement in a drawer and not look at it until after the referendum, when ever Dave decides to call it. So we couldn't wait for them to agree it and then hold the referendum. This has the smell of foul play, it will wait for a REMAIN vote and then eviscerate the agreement in the EU Parliament as senior politicians spread their hands apologetically and tell us it was outside their control, but never mind eh, because we voted to REMAIN.
If that's anything close to what happens, we will be leaving very shortly afterwards as the PM is forced out and replaced by someone who agrees to Referendum II as their first Bill through Parliament!
The technical position as I understand it is:
1. The Parliament votes on the detailed legislation put forward by the Commission. 2. The Commission will put forward detailed legislation once the package has been approved by the Council. In the case of the UK, approval at Council level is withheld until we've had a referendum on whether to agree.
It's therefore not possible for the Parliament to vote on it before the referendum. There is no legislation to vote on. They could, of course, have a motion expressing approval of the package, and that seems to me a reasonable thing to ask them to do before the referendum. But it can't be put into law until we've approved it ourselves.
I think it's a straw man - in practice if the UK votes for the package, the Parliament would be insane to try to reopen the issue, and they really aren't going to. If they did, we would be entitled to hold a new referendum. Thanks Nick, useful process detail.
I can't help get the feeling that some of those around the table from the EU would rather we left, judging from the rhetoric emanating from the discussions.
My best guess is that Leave will win about 45% of the vote.
I think most voters over 50, and most working class voters will vote Leave. I think that Conservative voters will vote about 50-55% for Leave, and UKIP voters will vote about 90% for Leave. About 25-30% of the rest will vote Leave.
I think Remain will carry Scotland by a big margin, Greater London, Surrey, Berkshire, Hertfordshire, all the big cities and Metropolitan boroughs, Merseyside, Welsh-speaking Wales, Northern Ireland, and Leave will carry everywhere else.
Are you going to be (are you already?) playing an active part in the campaign?
I always found your UKIP (and earlier, Tory) reports from the battlegrounds to be very insightful.
It's certainly my intention to help whichever organisation is designated as the official Leave campaign group. I expect I'll be delivering a ton of leaflets in Luton, a town where Leave may do quite well, given that Kelvin Hopkins will be campaigning for Leave.
Thanks.
I'm surprised you haven't started yet, in a way. Do you think you might have already if the organisation hadn't been so poor?
Yes. At this stage, I don't know who to assist.
If they can't get you, of all people, out hard at work in the name of the cause, then they're doing something badly, badly wrong.
They're wasting what should be their best asset - people willing to campaign on the ground.
My best guess is that Leave will win about 45% of the vote.
I think most voters over 50, and most working class voters will vote Leave. I think that Conservative voters will vote about 50-55% for Leave, and UKIP voters will vote about 90% for Leave. About 25-30% of the rest will vote Leave.
I think Remain will carry Scotland by a big margin, Greater London, Surrey, Berkshire, Hertfordshire, all the big cities and Metropolitan boroughs, Merseyside, Welsh-speaking Wales, Northern Ireland, and Leave will carry everywhere else.
Are you going to be (are you already?) playing an active part in the campaign?
I always found your UKIP (and earlier, Tory) reports from the battlegrounds to be very insightful.
It's certainly my intention to help whichever organisation is designated as the official Leave campaign group. I expect I'll be delivering a ton of leaflets in Luton, a town where Leave may do quite well, given that Kelvin Hopkins will be campaigning for Leave.
Thanks.
I'm surprised you haven't started yet, in a way. Do you think you might have already if the organisation hadn't been so poor?
Yes. At this stage, I don't know who to assist.
If they can't get you, of all people, out hard at work in the name of the cause, then they're doing something badly, badly wrong.
They're wasting what should be their best asset - people willing to campaign on the ground.
I fear they might have caught the Progressive Disease - thinking people, a sweeping majority of people, will vote for a real and transformative change based solely on an air war.
Slight off topic but still very much relevant, can any of our banker friends here suggest what might be happening at Deutsche Bank, shares down nearly 50% so far this year
Earlier this week, its Yorkshire-born co-chief executive John Cryan took the unusual step of telling everyone the bank was ‘rock-solid’, while the German finance minister Wolfgang Schauble made a point of telling everyone he was not worried about Deutsche, which is bit like Roman Abramovich saying he totally backs whoever happens to be managing Chelsea this week.
David Cameron has suffered a blow this morning after Martin Schulz, president the European Parliament, told him that the deal could not be legally binding before the EU referendum.
But the date of the Referendum has not been announced yet. This means that the date of the Referendum must be irrelevant, and as had been suggested by other commentators, the European Parliament is going to put the agreement in a drawer and not look at it until after the referendum, when ever Dave decides to call it. So we couldn't wait for them to agree it and then hold the referendum. This has the smell of foul play, it will wait for a REMAIN vote and then eviscerate the agreement in the EU Parliament as senior politicians spread their hands apologetically and tell us it was outside their control, but never mind eh, because we voted to REMAIN.
If that's anything close to what happens, we will be leaving very shortly afterwards as the PM is forced out and replaced by someone who agrees to Referendum II as their first Bill through Parliament!
The technical position as I understand it is:
1. The Parliament votes on the detailed legislation put forward by the Commission. 2. The Commission will put forward detailed legislation once the package has been approved by the Council. In the case of the UK, approval at Council level is withheld until we've had a referendum on whether to agree.
It's therefore not possible for the Parliament to vote on it before the referendum. There is no legislation to vote on. They could, of course, have a motion expressing approval of the package, and that seems to me a reasonable thing to ask them to do before the referendum. But it can't be put into law until we've approved it ourselves.
I think it's a straw man - in practice if the UK votes for the package, the Parliament would be insane to try to reopen the issue, and they really aren't going to. If they did, we would be entitled to hold a new referendum.
Thanks Nick, useful process detail.
I can't help get the feeling that some of those around the table from the EU would rather we left, judging from the rhetoric emanating from the discussions.
@Reuters: BREAKING: Former French President Sarkozy being investigated in campaign funding probe: Paris prosecutor
Good news for Marine Le Pen
Not really: it makes it much more likely Juppe is Les Republicans candidate, and he hammers her.
Marine needs Sarkozy to be Les Republicans candidate, because that means that Hollande may beat out out Sarkozy in the first round, and in a Le Pen vs Hollande match-up she stands a chance.
rcs1000 "Can we have a Euro referendum free thread at some point. I want to talk about the unelectability of Corbyn, the invisibility of Farron, and the hairlessness of Cameron. Anything, really, rather than EU Ref Thread Part 821"
Cyclefree The London Mayoral election? The uselessness of the Metropolitan police over the years? What has happened to the inquiry into historic child sex abuse - which is now becoming pretty historic itself? When the Chilcott report will be published? What has happened in Eastern Ukraine? When the missing Malaysian aeroplane will be found? Which newspaper will go all digital next? Who the next US Supreme Court Justice will be?
I would add Welsh elections Scottish elections English council elections (by region)
The last five Piel polls all have the PdvA on 9 seats. (The other pollsters are a bit more optimistic on the PdvA - but none have them higher than 15 seats.)
Trump calling Cruz "Liar, Liar" on live TV had an effect, once again Trump has to only open his mouth to devastate someone. The polling numbers in S.C make me guess his next target will be Rubio.
Slight off topic but still very much relevant, can any of our banker friends here suggest what might be happening at Deutsche Bank, shares down nearly 50% so far this year
Earlier this week, its Yorkshire-born co-chief executive John Cryan took the unusual step of telling everyone the bank was ‘rock-solid’, while the German finance minister Wolfgang Schauble made a point of telling everyone he was not worried about Deutsche, which is bit like Roman Abramovich saying he totally backs whoever happens to be managing Chelsea this week.
It is an enormous bank, described by one regulator as virtually unregulatable. Its home state regulator is viewed as one of the weakest in Europe. It has a number of pretty serious investigative and litigation problems and it is trying to set out a new strategy, reduce its balance sheet and get rid of under-performing assets, at a time when competition and margins in the banking sector (let alone new regulation and market volatility) are the toughest they have been for a while. Its staff are demoralised and facing redundancy and change.
Cryan (personal interest declaration: I know and have worked with him) is a good man - an old-fashioned banker in the best sense - but he has taken on one hell of a hospital pass.
What he is trying to do is very very tough. I wish him luck. He'll need it.
When banks have avoided facing up to their problems or looking for them, once they do they come "not as single spies but in battalions".
Slight off topic but still very much relevant, can any of our banker friends here suggest what might be happening at Deutsche Bank, shares down nearly 50% so far this year
Earlier this week, its Yorkshire-born co-chief executive John Cryan took the unusual step of telling everyone the bank was ‘rock-solid’, while the German finance minister Wolfgang Schauble made a point of telling everyone he was not worried about Deutsche, which is bit like Roman Abramovich saying he totally backs whoever happens to be managing Chelsea this week.
Well, there is specific thing with Deutsche, and one general thing with a number (including a few of our own) banks.
The specific thing with Deutsche is that the market has grown increasingly sceptical of DB's investment banking ambitions. Frankly, European commercial banks don't do a good job of going head-to-head with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley. The market would like DB to cut the investment banking business much more rapidly.
The general thing affecting a lot of banks (including some of our own, as well as Bank of America, Citibank and a few other US banks) is that they all need to refinance their CoCo bonds. (Aka contingent convertible - or A1 - bonds.) Deutsche Bank may not be able to pay the coupon on their CoCos (because of rules referring to the accumulated capital of the parent under German GAAP), and this has worried investors across the whole space. What this means is that some banks may need to issue new shares equivalent to perhaps 10-15% of their shares in issue. Hedge funds, knowing there is a new issue coming, short the whole space on the basis they'll be able to buy new shares back from the banks when the rights issue comes.
A Rubio second place would be nice. He's not going to get the nom so I want to lay him but I think he'll fall from where he is given the illogical odds that were available on him earlier.
@Reuters: BREAKING: Former French President Sarkozy being investigated in campaign funding probe: Paris prosecutor
Good news for Marine Le Pen
Not really: it makes it much more likely Juppe is Les Republicans candidate, and he hammers her.
Marine needs Sarkozy to be Les Republicans candidate, because that means that Hollande may beat out out Sarkozy in the first round, and in a Le Pen vs Hollande match-up she stands a chance.
Although in contrast to Sarkozy, Juppé actually has a criminal conviction for abuse of public funds. I'm not convinced his good polling would hold up in a real campaign.
Trump calling Cruz "Liar, Liar" on live TV had an effect, once again Trump has to only open his mouth to devastate someone. The polling numbers in S.C make me guess his next target will be Rubio.
I love the way Trump is just tearing up all the normal "rules" of debates.
Noone else would dare miss one, or adopt some of the positions he did in the last one.
Man not the argument - a sure sign of defending the indefensible.
Poppycock.
What SeanT wrote was "Either Cameron is lying, or the EU Parliament is lying".
How about these possibilities:
1) SeanT has misunderstood one or other 2) Cameron is mistaken 3) The 'EU Parliament' (by which presumably SeanT means Martin Schulz) is mistaken 4) Martin Schulz is saying the EU parliament might not support the deal, to which Cameron would reply: So what? It's a deal amongst the nations whose treaties set up the EU.
Since the Legal Counsel of the European Council has given a formal opinion that the deal will be legally binding, options 1, 3 and 4 seem the most likely.
As I pointed out when you raised this issue a few days ago, the Legal Counsel of the European Council is only one of two separate Legal counsels. The Legal Counsel of the European Commission is entirely separate and regularly rules in opposition to the Legal Counsel of the European Council.
The arbiter of these disagreements is the European Court of Justice. As such the opinion of the Legal Counsel of the European Council, formal or otherwise, should certainly not be considered any guarantee of a particular outcome, especially when that outcome involves treading on the toes of the European Commission and potentially limiting the authority of the European Court of Justice.
Good idea for a thread - maybe after referendum if it is in June.
@georgeeaton McDonnell says Treasury should be broken up into economic ministry and finance ministry (as Blair considered). #LSEMcDonnell
We could have the Department of Economic Affairs, as under Wilson, Led by George Brown!
Presumably the finance ministry would raise all the money and the economic ministry would waste it all on so-called "investments". Perhaps we could resuscitate British Leyland, while we're about it.
@Reuters: BREAKING: Former French President Sarkozy being investigated in campaign funding probe: Paris prosecutor
Good news for Marine Le Pen
Not really: it makes it much more likely Juppe is Les Republicans candidate, and he hammers her.
Marine needs Sarkozy to be Les Republicans candidate, because that means that Hollande may beat out out Sarkozy in the first round, and in a Le Pen vs Hollande match-up she stands a chance.
Sarkozy will run against Juppe whether he wins the official centre right nomination or not, he has that big an ego, so that still helps Le Pen and also makes a Hollande v Le Pen run-off more likely
Trump calling Cruz "Liar, Liar" on live TV had an effect, once again Trump has to only open his mouth to devastate someone. The polling numbers in S.C make me guess his next target will be Rubio.
I love the way Trump is just tearing up all the normal "rules" of debates.
Noone else would dare miss one, or adopt some of the positions he did in the last one.
It is starting to look like the biggest possible FU to the American Establishment has a real chance of being President this time next year.
Donald is just being himself, saying what he wants to say and saying what a lot of Americans are thinking but no-one else dares to say. People are so fed up of politics and politicians they clamour for anyone who dares to be different. See Bernie Sanders on the other side, see Corbyn in the UK and a reasonable chance that the EU get told where to hang their hat - or should that be their CAP?
@Reuters: BREAKING: Former French President Sarkozy being investigated in campaign funding probe: Paris prosecutor
Good news for Marine Le Pen
Not really: it makes it much more likely Juppe is Les Republicans candidate, and he hammers her.
Marine needs Sarkozy to be Les Republicans candidate, because that means that Hollande may beat out out Sarkozy in the first round, and in a Le Pen vs Hollande match-up she stands a chance.
Sarkozy will run against Juppe whether he wins the official centre right nomination or not, he has that big an ego, so that still helps Le Pen and also makes a Hollande v Le Pen run-off more likely
No he won't. The Les Republicans donors will not fund Sarkozy.
Guido is crowdsourcing the views of PMs on the referendum, including making a note where their position has changed. Write to your MP if they disagree with you!
@Reuters: BREAKING: Former French President Sarkozy being investigated in campaign funding probe: Paris prosecutor
Good news for Marine Le Pen
Not really: it makes it much more likely Juppe is Les Republicans candidate, and he hammers her.
Marine needs Sarkozy to be Les Republicans candidate, because that means that Hollande may beat out out Sarkozy in the first round, and in a Le Pen vs Hollande match-up she stands a chance.
Although in contrast to Sarkozy, Juppé actually has a criminal conviction for abuse of public funds. I'm not convinced his good polling would hold up in a real campaign.
He's not exactly an unknown: he was prime minister 20 odd years ago, and has run Bordeaux successfully.
Trump calling Cruz "Liar, Liar" on live TV had an effect, once again Trump has to only open his mouth to devastate someone. The polling numbers in S.C make me guess his next target will be Rubio.
I love the way Trump is just tearing up all the normal "rules" of debates.
Noone else would dare miss one, or adopt some of the positions he did in the last one.
It is starting to look like the biggest possible FU to the American Establishment has a real chance of being President this time next year.
Perhaps we should be looking for value bets for the French presidential election among outsiders with no record of running for office. The same type of candidacy would be very possible given their system. Unfortunately most of the French businesspeople or public intellectuals who you might consider are too establishment to pull it off in the same way.
Guido is crowdsourcing the views of PMs on the referendum, including making a note where their position has changed. Write to your MP if they disagree with you!
@Reuters: BREAKING: Former French President Sarkozy being investigated in campaign funding probe: Paris prosecutor
Good news for Marine Le Pen
Not really: it makes it much more likely Juppe is Les Republicans candidate, and he hammers her.
Marine needs Sarkozy to be Les Republicans candidate, because that means that Hollande may beat out out Sarkozy in the first round, and in a Le Pen vs Hollande match-up she stands a chance.
Sarkozy will run against Juppe whether he wins the official centre right nomination or not, he has that big an ego, so that still helps Le Pen and also makes a Hollande v Le Pen run-off more likely
No he won't. The Les Republicans donors will not fund Sarkozy.
Sarkozy has quite enough wealthy friends to fund himself and his brother works on Wall Street and is worth $100 million
@Reuters: BREAKING: Former French President Sarkozy being investigated in campaign funding probe: Paris prosecutor
Good news for Marine Le Pen
Not really: it makes it much more likely Juppe is Les Republicans candidate, and he hammers her.
Marine needs Sarkozy to be Les Republicans candidate, because that means that Hollande may beat out out Sarkozy in the first round, and in a Le Pen vs Hollande match-up she stands a chance.
Although in contrast to Sarkozy, Juppé actually has a criminal conviction for abuse of public funds. I'm not convinced his good polling would hold up in a real campaign.
He's not exactly an unknown: he was prime minister 20 odd years ago, and has run Bordeaux successfully.
He's been at the top of French politics forever without facing a national election (unless you count his party losing the legislatives while he was PM). Longevity does seem to be an asset in France but he's not a sure bet to win.
Trump calling Cruz "Liar, Liar" on live TV had an effect, once again Trump has to only open his mouth to devastate someone. The polling numbers in S.C make me guess his next target will be Rubio.
I love the way Trump is just tearing up all the normal "rules" of debates.
Noone else would dare miss one, or adopt some of the positions he did in the last one.
@Reuters: BREAKING: Former French President Sarkozy being investigated in campaign funding probe: Paris prosecutor
Good news for Marine Le Pen
Not really: it makes it much more likely Juppe is Les Republicans candidate, and he hammers her.
Marine needs Sarkozy to be Les Republicans candidate, because that means that Hollande may beat out out Sarkozy in the first round, and in a Le Pen vs Hollande match-up she stands a chance.
Sarkozy will run against Juppe whether he wins the official centre right nomination or not, he has that big an ego, so that still helps Le Pen and also makes a Hollande v Le Pen run-off more likely
No he won't. The Les Republicans donors will not fund Sarkozy.
Sarkozy has quite enough wealthy friends to fund himself and his brother works on Wall Street and is worth $100 million
He wouldn't do it. The rebranding of the right as the Republicans is his pet project so it would come at too great a cost to his legacy to stand against his own party.
@Reuters: BREAKING: Former French President Sarkozy being investigated in campaign funding probe: Paris prosecutor
Good news for Marine Le Pen
Not really: it makes it much more likely Juppe is Les Republicans candidate, and he hammers her.
Marine needs Sarkozy to be Les Republicans candidate, because that means that Hollande may beat out out Sarkozy in the first round, and in a Le Pen vs Hollande match-up she stands a chance.
Sarkozy will run against Juppe whether he wins the official centre right nomination or not, he has that big an ego, so that still helps Le Pen and also makes a Hollande v Le Pen run-off more likely
No he won't. The Les Republicans donors will not fund Sarkozy.
Sarkozy has quite enough wealthy friends to fund himself and his brother works on Wall Street and is worth $100 million
I'll offer you 3-1, up to £1,000 stake on two Les Republicans candidates if you're so sure
Trump calling Cruz "Liar, Liar" on live TV had an effect, once again Trump has to only open his mouth to devastate someone. The polling numbers in S.C make me guess his next target will be Rubio.
I love the way Trump is just tearing up all the normal "rules" of debates.
Noone else would dare miss one, or adopt some of the positions he did in the last one.
But it might well have cost him Iowa.
Not such a big deal, the narrative has moved on - it positions Cruz nicely (Without Cruz being competitive, Rubio would be v close to Trump I think) so only really worth 1 delegate loss.
@Reuters: BREAKING: Former French President Sarkozy being investigated in campaign funding probe: Paris prosecutor
Good news for Marine Le Pen
Not really: it makes it much more likely Juppe is Les Republicans candidate, and he hammers her.
Marine needs Sarkozy to be Les Republicans candidate, because that means that Hollande may beat out out Sarkozy in the first round, and in a Le Pen vs Hollande match-up she stands a chance.
Although in contrast to Sarkozy, Juppé actually has a criminal conviction for abuse of public funds. I'm not convinced his good polling would hold up in a real campaign.
He's not exactly an unknown: he was prime minister 20 odd years ago, and has run Bordeaux successfully.
He's been at the top of French politics forever without facing a national election (unless you count his party losing the legislatives while he was PM). Longevity does seem to be an asset in France but he's not a sure bet to win.
There are only two French politicians with positive ratings: Juppe and Macron. Le Pen, Sarkozy and Hollande are all -25 or worse
As that article implies it really is too big to fail, could drag the whole Eurozone down with it.
It's really not that big compared to RBS.
loans outstanding at RBS were about £1.1 trillion, vs €360bn at Deutsche, that's about a 4x difference
Also, tier one capital at RBS going into the crisis were c. 4%, vs 12% or so at DB now
Interesting to quantify the situation. It would still be a bloody big problem for the ECB though, who can't print money and don't have the same ease of decision-making process that the UK had in 2009.
Once again there is no need for a faux socialist party.
It's the 21st century. There's no need for a socialist party.
That will be why the Corbynite Green Left are up 12 seats in the same poll (and the animal welfare party doubled to 4, yay!)? There's also the Socialist Party, steady on 12 seats, which is hard to classify but certainly on the left. Dutch politics is full of exotic creatures.
@iainmartin1: Here is what happens: 1) Eastern Europeans diss deal 2) Cam "stands firm" 3) Dinner 4) Hacks pictured asleep 5) Breakfast: historic deal.
I have always suspected that there are beds in the chamber. Behind closed doors, they go off to sleep. Wake up in the early hours and pretend they just did a deal. Others just guzzle.
As that article implies it really is too big to fail, could drag the whole Eurozone down with it.
It's really not that big compared to RBS.
loans outstanding at RBS were about £1.1 trillion, vs €360bn at Deutsche, that's about a 4x difference
Also, tier one capital at RBS going into the crisis were c. 4%, vs 12% or so at DB now
Interesting to quantify the situation. It would still be a bloody big problem for the ECB though, who can't print money and don't have the same ease of decision-making process that the UK had in 2009.
It is worth remembering that the Germans have stepped in and nationalised failing lenders before. During the financial crisis, they nationalised Hypo Real Estate, which involved EUR10bn of equity investment and a further EUR140bn of loan guarantees. Bailing out Deutsche would be more expensive, but would hardly precipitate a crisis in Germany. Even if you assume a losses of - say - EUR50bn (heck, lets say EUR100bn), it would only mean adding about 3% to German government debt-to-GDP. That's nothing compared to the bail-out costs of RBS in the UK, or any of the Irish banks.
What it probably would mean, though, is that Germany would have to stop being so preachy about financial rectitude
@Reuters: BREAKING: Former French President Sarkozy being investigated in campaign funding probe: Paris prosecutor
Good news for Marine Le Pen
Not really: it makes it much more likely Juppe is Les Republicans candidate, and he hammers her.
Marine needs Sarkozy to be Les Republicans candidate, because that means that Hollande may beat out out Sarkozy in the first round, and in a Le Pen vs Hollande match-up she stands a chance.
Sarkozy will run against Juppe whether he wins the official centre right nomination or not, he has that big an ego, so that still helps Le Pen and also makes a Hollande v Le Pen run-off more likely
No he won't. The Les Republicans donors will not fund Sarkozy.
Sarkozy has quite enough wealthy friends to fund himself and his brother works on Wall Street and is worth $100 million
He wouldn't do it. The rebranding of the right as the Republicans is his pet project so it would come at too great a cost to his legacy to stand against his own party.
Of course he will do it, Sarkozy has a bigger ego than Napoleon. He is a former president not Juppe and he sees it as his historic destiny to save France. He only founded the party as his personal vehicle anyway
@Reuters: BREAKING: Former French President Sarkozy being investigated in campaign funding probe: Paris prosecutor
Good news for Marine Le Pen
Not really: it makes it much more likely Juppe is Les Republicans candidate, and he hammers her.
Marine needs Sarkozy to be Les Republicans candidate, because that means that Hollande may beat out out Sarkozy in the first round, and in a Le Pen vs Hollande match-up she stands a chance.
Sarkozy will run against Juppe whether he wins the official centre right nomination or not, he has that big an ego, so that still helps Le Pen and also makes a Hollande v Le Pen run-off more likely
No he won't. The Les Republicans donors will not fund Sarkozy.
Sarkozy has quite enough wealthy friends to fund himself and his brother works on Wall Street and is worth $100 million
He wouldn't do it. The rebranding of the right as the Republicans is his pet project so it would come at too great a cost to his legacy to stand against his own party.
Of course he will do it, Sarkozy has a bigger ego than Napoleon. He is a former presidentnot Juppe and he sees it as his historic destiny to save France. He only founded the party as his personal vehicle anyway
If the Les Republicans primary process chooses Juppe, which it will, then he will have no choice.
He's not going to start Les Republicans Part Deux with a third of his former party.
@Reuters: BREAKING: Former French President Sarkozy being investigated in campaign funding probe: Paris prosecutor
Good news for Marine Le Pen
Not really: it makes it much more likely Juppe is Les Republicans candidate, and he hammers her.
Marine needs Sarkozy to be Les Republicans candidate, because that means that Hollande may beat out out Sarkozy in the first round, and in a Le Pen vs Hollande match-up she stands a chance.
Sarkozy will run against Juppe whether he wins the official centre right nomination or not, he has that big an ego, so that still helps Le Pen and also makes a Hollande v Le Pen run-off more likely
No he won't. The Les Republicans donors will not fund Sarkozy.
Sarkozy has quite enough wealthy friends to fund himself and his brother works on Wall Street and is worth $100 million
I'll offer you 3-1, up to £1,000 stake on two Les Republicans candidates if you're so sure
There will only be one Led Republicans candidate but he will run regardless as Chirac and Balladur ran against each other in round 1 in 1995. I will bet £100 but no more than that
Good idea for a thread - maybe after referendum if it is in June.
@georgeeaton McDonnell says Treasury should be broken up into economic ministry and finance ministry (as Blair considered). #LSEMcDonnell
We could have the Department of Economic Affairs, as under Wilson, Led by George Brown!
Presumably the finance ministry would raise all the money and the economic ministry would waste it all on so-called "investments". Perhaps we could resuscitate British Leyland, while we're about it.
Once again there is no need for a faux socialist party.
It's the 21st century. There's no need for a socialist party.
That will be why the Corbynite Green Left are up 12 seats in the same poll (and the animal welfare party doubled to 4, yay!)? There's also the Socialist Party, steady on 12 seats, which is hard to classify but certainly on the left. Dutch politics is full of exotic creatures.
If one country needs an animal welfare party, its the Netherlands.
Once again there is no need for a faux socialist party.
It's the 21st century. There's no need for a socialist party.
That will be why the Corbynite Green Left are up 12 seats in the same poll (and the animal welfare party doubled to 4, yay!)? There's also the Socialist Party, steady on 12 seats, which is hard to classify but certainly on the left. Dutch politics is full of exotic creatures.
If one country needs an animal welfare party, its the Netherlands.
How is the Dutch Paedophile Party doing these days?
@Reuters: BREAKING: Former French President Sarkozy being investigated in campaign funding probe: Paris prosecutor
Good news for Marine Le Pen
Not really: it makes it much more likely Juppe is Les Republicans candidate, and he hammers her.
Marine needs Sarkozy to be Les Republicans candidate, because that means that Hollande may beat out out Sarkozy in the first round, and in a Le Pen vs Hollande match-up she stands a chance.
Sarkozy will run against Juppe whether he wins the official centre right nomination or not, he has that big an ego, so that still helps Le Pen and also makes a Hollande v Le Pen run-off more likely
No he won't. The Les Republicans donors will not fund Sarkozy.
Sarkozy has quite enough wealthy friends to fund himself and his brother works on Wall Street and is worth $100 million
I'll offer you 3-1, up to £1,000 stake on two Les Republicans candidates if you're so sure
There will only be one Led Republicans candidate but he will run regardless as Chirac and Balladur ran against each other in round 1 in 1995. I will bet £100 but no more than that
So, the bet is "should Alain Juppe be the Les Republicans candidate, Sarkozy will run"
Void if anyone else other than Juppe is Les Republicans candidate.
Once again there is no need for a faux socialist party.
It's the 21st century. There's no need for a socialist party.
That will be why the Corbynite Green Left are up 12 seats in the same poll (and the animal welfare party doubled to 4, yay!)? There's also the Socialist Party, steady on 12 seats, which is hard to classify but certainly on the left. Dutch politics is full of exotic creatures.
If one country needs an animal welfare party, its the Netherlands.
How is the Dutch Paedophile Party doing these days?
David Cameron has suffered a blow this morning after Martin Schulz, president the European Parliament, told him that the deal could not be legally binding before the EU referendum.
But the date of the Referendum has not been announced yet. This means that the date of the Referendum must be irrelevant, and as had been suggested by other commentators, the European Parliament is going to put the agreement in a drawer and not look at it until after the referendum, when ever Dave decides to call it. So we couldn't wait for them to agree it and then hold the referendum. This has the smell of foul play, it will wait for a REMAIN vote and then eviscerate the agreement in the EU Parliament as senior politicians spread their hands apologetically and tell us it was outside their control, but never mind eh, because we voted to REMAIN.
If that's anything close to what happens, we will be leaving very shortly afterwards as the PM is forced out and replaced by someone who agrees to Referendum II as their first Bill through Parliament!
The technical position as I understand it is:
1. The Parliament votes on the detailed legislation put forward by the Commission. 2. The Commission will put forward detailed legislation once the package has been approved by the Council. In the case of the UK, approval at Council level is withheld until we've had a referendum on whether to agree.
It's therefore not possible for the Parliament to vote on it before the referendum. There is no legislation to vote on. They could, of course, have a motion expressing approval of the package, and that seems to me a reasonable thing to ask them to do before the referendum. But it can't be put into law until we've approved it ourselves.
I think it's a straw man - in practice if the UK votes for the package, the Parliament would be insane to try to reopen the issue, and they really aren't going to. If they did, we would be entitled to hold a new referendum.
You make a fair point. I'm growing tired of all the verbal flatulance posing as insightful comment on here.
Once again there is no need for a faux socialist party.
It's the 21st century. There's no need for a socialist party.
That will be why the Corbynite Green Left are up 12 seats in the same poll (and the animal welfare party doubled to 4, yay!)? There's also the Socialist Party, steady on 12 seats, which is hard to classify but certainly on the left. Dutch politics is full of exotic creatures.
If one country needs an animal welfare party, its the Netherlands.
How is the Dutch Paedophile Party doing these days?
Growing pains, I believe
Apparently that PIEman who got Harperson into trouble has joined Corbyn's Labour. Apols if that's been covered.
Good idea for a thread - maybe after referendum if it is in June.
@georgeeaton McDonnell says Treasury should be broken up into economic ministry and finance ministry (as Blair considered). #LSEMcDonnell
We could have the Department of Economic Affairs, as under Wilson, Led by George Brown!
Presumably the finance ministry would raise all the money and the economic ministry would waste it all on so-called "investments". Perhaps we could resuscitate British Leyland, while we're about it.
Back to the future, indeed.
Just shows what a joke McDonnell is.
Done correctly I could see merit in this, in that in targeting UK debts the current government have focussed very largely on getting the government deficit down, the finance aspect. The other 5/6 or so of the UK's debt - personal, private sector and banking, the economic aspect, has been substantially ignored. How much is pure party political - painting a crash where public sector looms large - and how much is practical, waiting until the economy is on the up before trying to deleverage the private sector in some kind of soft landing, I don't exactly know. But there is still a hell of a lot of work to be done to recover from the crash, and an economic ministry with the right mindset could be exactly what is needed for the job.
Whether that is what McDonnell is actually proposing is another matter.
Good idea for a thread - maybe after referendum if it is in June.
@georgeeaton McDonnell says Treasury should be broken up into economic ministry and finance ministry (as Blair considered). #LSEMcDonnell
We could have the Department of Economic Affairs, as under Wilson, Led by George Brown!
Presumably the finance ministry would raise all the money and the economic ministry would waste it all on so-called "investments". Perhaps we could resuscitate British Leyland, while we're about it.
Back to the future, indeed.
Just shows what a joke McDonnell is.
Done correctly I could see merit in this, in that in targeting UK debts the current government have focussed very largely on getting the government deficit down, the finance aspect. The other 5/6 or so of the UK's debt - personal, private sector and banking, the economic aspect, has been substantially ignored. How much is pure party political - painting a crash where public sector looms large - and how much is practical, waiting until the economy is on the up before trying to deleverage the private sector in some kind of soft landing, I don't exactly know. But there is still a hell of a lot of work to be done to recover from the crash, and an economic ministry with the right mindset could be exactly what is needed for the job.
Whether that is what McDonnell is actually proposing is another matter.
I read it that McDonnell wants to be in charge of the ministry of spending money, and wants some other mug to be in charge of raising it!
Good idea for a thread - maybe after referendum if it is in June.
@georgeeaton McDonnell says Treasury should be broken up into economic ministry and finance ministry (as Blair considered). #LSEMcDonnell
We could have the Department of Economic Affairs, as under Wilson, Led by George Brown!
Presumably the finance ministry would raise all the money and the economic ministry would waste it all on so-called "investments". Perhaps we could resuscitate British Leyland, while we're about it.
Back to the future, indeed.
Just shows what a joke McDonnell is.
Done correctly I could see merit in this, in that in targeting UK debts the current government have focussed very largely on getting the government deficit down, the finance aspect. The other 5/6 or so of the UK's debt - personal, private sector and banking, the economic aspect, has been substantially ignored. How much is pure party political - painting a crash where public sector looms large - and how much is practical, waiting until the economy is on the up before trying to deleverage the private sector in some kind of soft landing, I don't exactly know. But there is still a hell of a lot of work to be done to recover from the crash, and an economic ministry with the right mindset could be exactly what is needed for the job.
Whether that is what McDonnell is actually proposing is another matter.
Even if it was it would be wrong headed. Who blames who for getting in the way of the other? Who causes the next crash who stops it? Who resigns when there is friction between the two? The last DEA was just a cupboard to shut George Brown away in.
Yeah he should manage to take second, oh wait I see that was before his faux pas in the debate, so maybe not.
Interesting PPP favourables, Carson looks nailed on. More seriously Trump will be delighted to see Ted take a hit, SC is the place to take him out and set himself up to sweep the south. Stong poll for Trump as PPP seems to give him his lowest numbers, for whatever reason.
Comments
old Ulster didn't include Cavan, but had Louth instead.
The technical position as I understand it is:
1. The Parliament votes on the detailed legislation put forward by the Commission.
2. The Commission will put forward detailed legislation once the package has been approved by the Council. In the case of the UK, approval at Council level is withheld until we've had a referendum on whether to agree.
It's therefore not possible for the Parliament to vote on it before the referendum. There is no legislation to vote on. They could, of course, have a motion expressing approval of the package, and that seems to me a reasonable thing to ask them to do before the referendum. But it can't be put into law until we've approved it ourselves.
I think it's a straw man - in practice if the UK votes for the package, the Parliament would be insane to try to reopen the issue, and they really aren't going to. If they did, we would be entitled to hold a new referendum.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ulster
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/02/which-tory-mps-back-brexit-who-doesnt-and-who-is-still-on-the-fence/
I note that the Government currently trails amongst its backbenches.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/syria-conflict-damascus-remains-a-war-zone-but-some-families-are-returning-a6877736.html
Are you watching, Corbynistas?
Someone's got the Scunthorpe problem.
1. The Parliament votes on the detailed legislation put forward by the Commission.
2. The Commission will put forward detailed legislation once the package has been approved by the Council. In the case of the UK, approval at Council level is withheld until we've had a referendum on whether to agree.
It's therefore not possible for the Parliament to vote on it before the referendum. There is no legislation to vote on. They could, of course, have a motion expressing approval of the package, and that seems to me a reasonable thing to ask them to do before the referendum. But it can't be put into law until we've approved it ourselves.
I think it's a straw man - in practice if the UK votes for the package, the Parliament would be insane to try to reopen the issue, and they really aren't going to. If they did, we would be entitled to hold a new referendum.
Thanks Nick, useful process detail.
I can't help get the feeling that some of those around the table from the EU would rather we left, judging from the rhetoric emanating from the discussions.
I want to talk about the unelectability of Corbyn, the invisibility of Farron, and the hairlessness of Cameron.
Anything, really, rather than EU Ref Thread Part 821
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/02/if-deutsche-bank-collapses-its-taking-the-euro-with-it/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_Dutch_general_election#Opinion_polls
The uselessness of the Metropolitan police over the years?
What has happened to the inquiry into historic child sex abuse - which is now becoming pretty historic itself?
When the Chilcott report will be published?
What has happened in Eastern Ukraine?
When the missing Malaysian aeroplane will be found?
Which newspaper will go all digital next?
Who the next US Supreme Court Justice will be?
I can't help get the feeling that some of those around the table from the EU would rather we left, judging from the rhetoric emanating from the discussions.
Fed up with British (Cameron's) whinging?
Marine needs Sarkozy to be Les Republicans candidate, because that means that Hollande may beat out out Sarkozy in the first round, and in a Le Pen vs Hollande match-up she stands a chance.
Anything, really, rather than EU Ref Thread Part 821"
Cyclefree
The London Mayoral election? The uselessness of the Metropolitan police over the years?
What has happened to the inquiry into historic child sex abuse - which is now becoming pretty historic itself? When the Chilcott report will be published?
What has happened in Eastern Ukraine? When the missing Malaysian aeroplane will be found?
Which newspaper will go all digital next? Who the next US Supreme Court Justice will be?
I would add
Welsh elections
Scottish elections
English council elections (by region)
Except TSE only offers tease and denial on this :-(
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3449390/Emma-Thompson-leads-luvvies-telling-Britain-stay-Europe-not-retreat-cake-filled-misery-laden-grey-old-island.html
PPP S.C Net Favourables (changes):
Carson +45 (-7)
Rubio +26 (-12)
Kasich +23 (+40)
Trump +7 (-13)
Bush -2 (+8)
Cruz -6 (-41)
Trump calling Cruz "Liar, Liar" on live TV had an effect, once again Trump has to only open his mouth to devastate someone.
The polling numbers in S.C make me guess his next target will be Rubio.
It is an enormous bank, described by one regulator as virtually unregulatable. Its home state regulator is viewed as one of the weakest in Europe. It has a number of pretty serious investigative and litigation problems and it is trying to set out a new strategy, reduce its balance sheet and get rid of under-performing assets, at a time when competition and margins in the banking sector (let alone new regulation and market volatility) are the toughest they have been for a while. Its staff are demoralised and facing redundancy and change.
Cryan (personal interest declaration: I know and have worked with him) is a good man - an old-fashioned banker in the best sense - but he has taken on one hell of a hospital pass.
What he is trying to do is very very tough. I wish him luck. He'll need it.
When banks have avoided facing up to their problems or looking for them, once they do they come "not as single spies but in battalions".
Well, there is specific thing with Deutsche, and one general thing with a number (including a few of our own) banks.
The specific thing with Deutsche is that the market has grown increasingly sceptical of DB's investment banking ambitions. Frankly, European commercial banks don't do a good job of going head-to-head with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley. The market would like DB to cut the investment banking business much more rapidly.
The general thing affecting a lot of banks (including some of our own, as well as Bank of America, Citibank and a few other US banks) is that they all need to refinance their CoCo bonds. (Aka contingent convertible - or A1 - bonds.) Deutsche Bank may not be able to pay the coupon on their CoCos (because of rules referring to the accumulated capital of the parent under German GAAP), and this has worried investors across the whole space. What this means is that some banks may need to issue new shares equivalent to perhaps 10-15% of their shares in issue. Hedge funds, knowing there is a new issue coming, short the whole space on the basis they'll be able to buy new shares back from the banks when the rights issue comes.
@georgeeaton
McDonnell says Treasury should be broken up into economic ministry and finance ministry (as Blair considered). #LSEMcDonnell
Noone else would dare miss one, or adopt some of the positions he did in the last one.
The arbiter of these disagreements is the European Court of Justice. As such the opinion of the Legal Counsel of the European Council, formal or otherwise, should certainly not be considered any guarantee of a particular outcome, especially when that outcome involves treading on the toes of the European Commission and potentially limiting the authority of the European Court of Justice.
Presumably the finance ministry would raise all the money and the economic ministry would waste it all on so-called "investments". Perhaps we could resuscitate British Leyland, while we're about it.
Back to the future, indeed.
Donald is just being himself, saying what he wants to say and saying what a lot of Americans are thinking but no-one else dares to say. People are so fed up of politics and politicians they clamour for anyone who dares to be different. See Bernie Sanders on the other side, see Corbyn in the UK and a reasonable chance that the EU get told where to hang their hat - or should that be their CAP?
As that article implies it really is too big to fail, could drag the whole Eurozone down with it.
http://order-order.com/2016/02/16/introducing-guidos-mp-referendum-list/
Florida (Jan 30th-Feb 6th) Trump 27, Rubio 20, Cruz 12, Carson 6, Bush 4
http://big.assets.huffingtonpost.com/FSCFloridaPrimaryPreferencePoll02820162.pdf
Texas (Jan 25th-Jan 26th) Cruz 30, Trump 25, Rubio 12, Bush 8
http://dfw.cbslocal.com/2016/01/28/cruz-now-leads-trump-among-gop-candidates-in-latest-ktvt-cbs-11-dixie-strategies-texas-poll/
loans outstanding at RBS were about £1.1 trillion, vs €360bn at Deutsche, that's about a 4x difference
Also, tier one capital at RBS going into the crisis were c. 4%, vs 12% or so at DB now
60 - 40.
What it probably would mean, though, is that Germany would have to stop being so preachy about financial rectitude
He's not going to start Les Republicans Part Deux with a third of his former party.
wouldn't it be funny if Trump won the presidency. Closely followed by Dave stepping down, a leadership contest held and Boris becomes leader and PM.
Can you just imagine the summit between those two?
Void if anyone else other than Juppe is Les Republicans candidate.
Done
1. The Parliament votes on the detailed legislation put forward by the Commission.
2. The Commission will put forward detailed legislation once the package has been approved by the Council. In the case of the UK, approval at Council level is withheld until we've had a referendum on whether to agree.
It's therefore not possible for the Parliament to vote on it before the referendum. There is no legislation to vote on. They could, of course, have a motion expressing approval of the package, and that seems to me a reasonable thing to ask them to do before the referendum. But it can't be put into law until we've approved it ourselves.
I think it's a straw man - in practice if the UK votes for the package, the Parliament would be insane to try to reopen the issue, and they really aren't going to. If they did, we would be entitled to hold a new referendum.
You make a fair point. I'm growing tired of all the verbal flatulance posing as insightful comment on here.
Hast Du etwas Zeit für mich
Dann singe ich ein Lied für Dich
Von 99 Delegates
Auf ihrem Weg zum Florida
Whether that is what McDonnell is actually proposing is another matter.
ABBA - The Winner Takes It All
Who blames who for getting in the way of the other? Who causes the next crash who stops it? Who resigns when there is friction between the two?
The last DEA was just a cupboard to shut George Brown away in.
Yeah he should manage to take second, oh wait I see that was before his faux pas in the debate, so maybe not.
Interesting PPP favourables, Carson looks nailed on. More seriously Trump will be delighted to see Ted take a hit, SC is the place to take him out and set himself up to sweep the south. Stong poll for Trump as PPP seems to give him his lowest numbers, for whatever reason.
http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2016/02/15/roger-stone-thinks-trump-poised-to-sweep-the-south/