"I think Remain will carry Scotland by a big margin, Greater London, Surrey, Berkshire, Hertfordshire, all the big cities and Metropolitan boroughs, Merseyside, Welsh-speaking Wales, Northern Ireland, and Leave will carry everywhere else."
Leave surely has a good chance of carrying some of the metropolitan boroughs that surround the big cities like Walsall, Dudley, Rotherham, Bolton, Wigan, Gateshead, South Tyneside, Barnsley, Doncaster, etc.
LEAVE will do brilliantly in any town where there's been large scale immigration from Slovakia, Bulgaria, Poland, etc. Especially Roma immigration. Sad but true.
That's quite a lot of towns. Mostly Labour voting.
I can't see Crewe voting remain.
I think the large number of Poles in Crewe might want to...
"I think Remain will carry Scotland by a big margin, Greater London, Surrey, Berkshire, Hertfordshire, all the big cities and Metropolitan boroughs, Merseyside, Welsh-speaking Wales, Northern Ireland, and Leave will carry everywhere else."
Leave surely has a good chance of carrying some of the metropolitan boroughs that surround the big cities like Walsall, Dudley, Rotherham, Bolton, Wigan, Gateshead, South Tyneside, Barnsley, Doncaster, etc.
On reflection, yes, there's a good chance.
At the same time Remain may carry some middle-class commuter districts near big cities like Harrogate, Solihull, Oadby & Wigston, etc.
Can't see Harrogate voting remain. They wouldn't vote to remain in Yorkshire, given the chance.
Consensus in room 7 is that there is no provision for a recount in event of a close result in EU referendum & a tie means UK stays in.
The tie rule is, in a sense, fair enough: the principle of 'change needs a majority' is well-established. However, to have no provision for a re-count is bloody ridiculous.
I think the problem is a recount would have to be nationwide and could not just be in certain areas like it is in a General Election. Still should be done if the result is close enough.
If it is a tie, it means everyone's vote would have counted. Since the Queen won't be voting, and she'd most likely plump for "Remain" it's the correct decision.
"I think Remain will carry Scotland by a big margin, Greater London, Surrey, Berkshire, Hertfordshire, all the big cities and Metropolitan boroughs, Merseyside, Welsh-speaking Wales, Northern Ireland, and Leave will carry everywhere else."
Leave surely has a good chance of carrying some of the metropolitan boroughs that surround the big cities like Walsall, Dudley, Rotherham, Bolton, Wigan, Gateshead, South Tyneside, Barnsley, Doncaster, etc.
LEAVE will do brilliantly in any town where there's been large scale immigration from Slovakia, Bulgaria, Poland, etc. Especially Roma immigration. Sad but true.
That's quite a lot of towns. Mostly Labour voting.
Yes and no. Mass Immigration is certainly about as popular as the plague in a lot of Labour towns, and there's no love for the EU either (plus one of the main shots in Remain's locker, the fearmongering about how big businesses and banks are all going to flee, will carry little weight since they don't employ many people in lots of traditional Labour towns anyway).
HOWEVER, don't underestimate how reflexively anti-Tory these voters remain. Even if voters in the likes of Gateshead or Rotherham agree with all of Leave's arguments on paper, I'm really not sure they're going to listen if they're coming out of the mouth of Nigel Lawson or someone similar. Which is why Leave urgently need to start getting some high-profile Labour voices on board, rather than obsessing about which third-rank Tory nonentities are going to join them.
If it is a tie, it means everyone's vote would have counted. Since the Queen won't be voting, and she'd most likely plump for "Remain" it's the correct decision.
Isn't she allowed a vote? Or is it explicitly forbidden?
I'm feeling generous. I'll lay 5/1 if you're interested?
It's got to be closer to 500/1. In fact in the last five general elections since 1997 there's only been one result close to a tie, so in reality it's more like 3000/1. No I'm not offering to lay at that price
You should be. It's more like 1,000,000/1
I think Sandpit would be closer. I can't see it being beyond 100k/1
Chance of result being within 49.5% - 50.5% = about 5%, as per Ladbrokes/365's bands.
Number of actual votes in that band = 330,000, based on a turnout around 70%. Approximating, each individual result (i.e. Remain votes - Leave votes) within this narrow band is equally likely. Only one of these is a tie.
I'm feeling generous. I'll lay 5/1 if you're interested?
It's got to be closer to 500/1. In fact in the last five general elections since 1997 there's only been one result close to a tie, so in reality it's more like 3000/1. No I'm not offering to lay at that price
Funny to think, despite his perceived unpopularity, Nigel Farage has a 33% chance of being the most successful politician of the century in the next 4 months
If it is a tie, it means everyone's vote would have counted. Since the Queen won't be voting, and she'd most likely plump for "Remain" it's the correct decision.
Isn't she allowed a vote? Or is it explicitly forbidden?
So farewell then, Liz Lochhead, whose term as Scotland’s national poet, or “makar”, has come to an end.
let me make a very modest prediction: whosoever succeeds Ms Lochhead will not be a publicly declared Unionist. Nor will they be the kind of poet who challenges nationalist shibboleths or asks interesting — that is, inconvenient — questions about language or identity. There are, we keep telling ourselves, many Scotlands but the “new” establishment has room for surprisingly few of them. The new “makar” will have to pass a mysterious, and unacknowledged, “Scottishness” test.
And why not? This is a country that loves lying to itself. The manufacturing of comfortable myths is our biggest growth business. One of the most fashionable current myths is that “Scots”, as commonly spoken or understood by the vast majority of Scottish citizens, is a language distinct from standard English.
It is easier to avoid our English-speaking reality and, instead, kid ourselves that we are something we are not. A more confident culture would have no need to fool itself, but this fooling is the new Scottish cringe.
Consensus in room 7 is that there is no provision for a recount in event of a close result in EU referendum & a tie means UK stays in.
The tie rule is, in a sense, fair enough: the principle of 'change needs a majority' is well-established. However, to have no provision for a re-count is bloody ridiculous.
I think the problem is a recount would have to be nationwide and could not just be in certain areas like it is in a General Election. Still should be done if the result is close enough.
Is the detail of the counting timetable published yet, will it be an overnight count as in Scotland or will they lock up the ballot boxes and start in the morning?
If a recount was called immediately then it would only take an hour if all the counting teams were still in place, but if it were called a day later it could take days to set up and count again.
'Incidentally the ECJ has ruled against UN Security Council resolutions that had already been adopted by the Council of Europe (Kadi & Al Barakaat v. Council of the EU & EC Commission) because they conflict with the treaties, so legally binding political promises have no chance.'
The notion that we could rely on the UN to keep the EU in order is really very quaint, isn't it?
One thing punters certainly should pay no heed to is the anti Cameron bile poured out on here day after day. its certainly not representative.
Cameron gets more support here than among the public generally.
Really? General public he has over 30% support from memory. He doesn't seem to have that much here. General public Tories he has about 80% from memory, on here I'd estimate more than 1/5th of Tories don't like him.
I'm pretty sure he has more than 30% support here.
HOWEVER, don't underestimate how reflexively anti-Tory these voters remain. Even if voters in the likes of Gateshead or Rotherham agree with all of Leave's arguments on paper, I'm really not sure they're going to listen if they're coming out of the mouth of Nigel Lawson or someone similar. Which is why Leave urgently need to start getting some high-profile Labour voices on board, rather than obsessing about which third-rank Tory nonentities are going to join them.
You are forgetting the opportunity to at least hugely embarrass the Tory government if not force them to replace their very popular (at least until this week ) leader with maybe some unelectable idiot like Fox.
I'm feeling generous. I'll lay 5/1 if you're interested?
It's got to be closer to 500/1. In fact in the last five general elections since 1997 there's only been one result close to a tie, so in reality it's more like 3000/1. No I'm not offering to lay at that price
I'm feeling generous. I'll lay 5/1 if you're interested?
It's got to be closer to 500/1. In fact in the last five general elections since 1997 there's only been one result close to a tie, so in reality it's more like 3000/1. No I'm not offering to lay at that price
You should be. It's more like 1,000,000/1
If we had kept our mouths shut I reckon Pong would've been on at 1/9 or bigger the other side
What's with your kisses at the start of replies? x
I'm feeling generous. I'll lay 5/1 if you're interested?
It's got to be closer to 500/1. In fact in the last five general elections since 1997 there's only been one result close to a tie, so in reality it's more like 3000/1. No I'm not offering to lay at that price
I'm feeling generous. I'll lay 5/1 if you're interested?
It's got to be closer to 500/1. In fact in the last five general elections since 1997 there's only been one result close to a tie, so in reality it's more like 3000/1. No I'm not offering to lay at that price
You should be. It's more like 1,000,000/1
If we had kept our mouths shut I reckon Pong would've been on at 1/9 or bigger the other side
What's with your kisses at the start of replies? x
I'm feeling generous. I'll lay 5/1 if you're interested?
It's got to be closer to 500/1. In fact in the last five general elections since 1997 there's only been one result close to a tie, so in reality it's more like 3000/1. No I'm not offering to lay at that price
You should be. It's more like 1,000,000/1
I'll have a fiver.
Done.
PB's biggest ever potential liability ?
You're on the right side of the bet though
Wait until I start posting my EU Ref book on here and on the summary page it'll say
I'm feeling generous. I'll lay 5/1 if you're interested?
It's got to be closer to 500/1. In fact in the last five general elections since 1997 there's only been one result close to a tie, so in reality it's more like 3000/1. No I'm not offering to lay at that price
You should be. It's more like 1,000,000/1
Is there a technical definition of a tie? Unless there is some rounding then it has to be millions to one.
I'm working on the definition being both sides ending with the same number of votes.
There's not been a tied parliamentary election since 1886 (I think, from a quick Google), and there have been 32 general elections, so about 20,000 constituency contests, since then.
The odds of there being one in a referendum with an electorate measured in the tens of millions rather than tens of thousands - even one where the polls are currently close to level pegging - ought to run into seven figures.
On topic. Something that is unthinkable needs a long time to be accepted as a possibility or as a fact. That is why Remain has such a large lead in betting markets.
"I think Remain will carry Scotland by a big margin, Greater London, Surrey, Berkshire, Hertfordshire, all the big cities and Metropolitan boroughs, Merseyside, Welsh-speaking Wales, Northern Ireland, and Leave will carry everywhere else."
Leave surely has a good chance of carrying some of the metropolitan boroughs that surround the big cities like Walsall, Dudley, Rotherham, Bolton, Wigan, Gateshead, South Tyneside, Barnsley, Doncaster, etc.
LEAVE will do brilliantly in any town where there's been large scale immigration from Slovakia, Bulgaria, Poland, etc. Especially Roma immigration. Sad but true.
That's quite a lot of towns. Mostly Labour voting.
Yes and no. Mass Immigration is certainly about as popular as the plague in a lot of Labour towns, and there's no love for the EU either (plus one of the main shots in Remain's locker, the fearmongering about how big businesses and banks are all going to flee, will carry little weight since they don't employ many people in lots of traditional Labour towns anyway).
HOWEVER, don't underestimate how reflexively anti-Tory these voters remain. Even if voters in the likes of Gateshead or Rotherham agree with all of Leave's arguments on paper, I'm really not sure they're going to listen if they're coming out of the mouth of Nigel Lawson or someone similar. Which is why Leave urgently need to start getting some high-profile Labour voices on board, rather than obsessing about which third-rank Tory nonentities are going to join them.
That cuts both ways though; the only chance through the ballot box to give Cameron, Osborne and the other Tory posh boys a bloody nose.
I'm feeling generous. I'll lay 5/1 if you're interested?
It's got to be closer to 500/1. In fact in the last five general elections since 1997 there's only been one result close to a tie, so in reality it's more like 3000/1. No I'm not offering to lay at that price
You should be. It's more like 1,000,000/1
I'll have a fiver.
Done.
PB's biggest ever potential liability ?
You're on the right side of the bet though
Wait until I start posting my EU Ref book on here and on the summary page it'll say
'Incidentally the ECJ has ruled against UN Security Council resolutions that had already been adopted by the Council of Europe (Kadi & Al Barakaat v. Council of the EU & EC Commission) because they conflict with the treaties, so legally binding political promises have no chance.'
The notion that we could rely on the UN to keep the EU in order is really very quaint, isn't it?
Even quainter is this being the place that Cameron et al are making a big show of "placing" the signed political agreement, as if the ECJ gives two hoots what the UN thinks, as demonstrated above.
Consensus in room 7 is that there is no provision for a recount in event of a close result in EU referendum & a tie means UK stays in.
The tie rule is, in a sense, fair enough: the principle of 'change needs a majority' is well-established. However, to have no provision for a re-count is bloody ridiculous.
I think the problem is a recount would have to be nationwide and could not just be in certain areas like it is in a General Election. Still should be done if the result is close enough.
Agreed. If it's close then you have to be sure and if that means everyone coming back the next day to count the papers again then so be it.
"I think Remain will carry Scotland by a big margin, Greater London, Surrey, Berkshire, Hertfordshire, all the big cities and Metropolitan boroughs, Merseyside, Welsh-speaking Wales, Northern Ireland, and Leave will carry everywhere else."
Leave surely has a good chance of carrying some of the metropolitan boroughs that surround the big cities like Walsall, Dudley, Rotherham, Bolton, Wigan, Gateshead, South Tyneside, Barnsley, Doncaster, etc.
LEAVE will do brilliantly in any town where there's been large scale immigration from Slovakia, Bulgaria, Poland, etc. Especially Roma immigration. Sad but true.
That's quite a lot of towns. Mostly Labour voting.
I can't see Crewe voting remain.
I think the large number of Poles in Crewe might want to...
They don't get to vote on this.
For some reason I thought they did. Point taken.
I was thinking particularly about the reports last week of the shenanigans in that school in Crewe involving Slovakian (I assume) Roma. Talking of which, that's all gone very quiet.
Is Kasich going to prove the dark horse of the campaign? On one level, 7% is piss poor. On another, if he knocks out Bush then he's well-placed to pick up most of his support, particularly if Rubio is dropping back too.
Or is this missing the wood for the trees; the wood being that Trump is strolling towards the nomination?
That 50-40 for Clinton is too narrow for her comfort - must be quite a few states where Sanders is close or ahead. I still think she'll make it, but she's about two major mistakes away from disaster (i.e. she can probably afford one, but not two).
Is Kasich going to prove the dark horse of the campaign? On one level, 7% is piss poor. On another, if he knocks out Bush then he's well-placed to pick up most of his support, particularly if Rubio is dropping back too.
Or is this missing the wood for the trees; the wood being that Trump is strolling towards the nomination?
That 50-40 for Clinton is too narrow for her comfort - must be quite a few states where Sanders is close or ahead. I still think she'll make it, but she's about two major mistakes away from disaster (i.e. she can probably afford one, but not two).
Sanders has outperformed his polling so far in both Iowa and New Hampshire. Something to bear in mind
Is Kasich going to prove the dark horse of the campaign? On one level, 7% is piss poor. On another, if he knocks out Bush then he's well-placed to pick up most of his support, particularly if Rubio is dropping back too.
Or is this missing the wood for the trees; the wood being that Trump is strolling towards the nomination?
That 50-40 for Clinton is too narrow for her comfort - must be quite a few states where Sanders is close or ahead. I still think she'll make it, but she's about two major mistakes away from disaster (i.e. she can probably afford one, but not two).
Defeat in Nevada would be one major mistake for her. It will be back to back defeats.
If it is a tie, it means everyone's vote would have counted. Since the Queen won't be voting, and she'd most likely plump for "Remain" it's the correct decision.
Isn't she allowed a vote? Or is it explicitly forbidden?
I'd guess that she's probably not on the electoral roll.
IIRC, she's forbidden from voting at a GE because she is a 'House' of parliament in her own right - strictly, it's the 'Crown in Parliament' which is sovereign and she has the reserve power to veto laws (not used in over 300 years).
I don't think that there's an explicit prohibition on her voting at other polls but it would run contrary to the constitutional convention of royal neutrality.
If it is a tie, it means everyone's vote would have counted. Since the Queen won't be voting, and she'd most likely plump for "Remain" it's the correct decision.
Isn't she allowed a vote? Or is it explicitly forbidden?
I'd guess that she's probably not on the electoral roll.
IIRC, she's forbidden from voting at a GE because she is a 'House' of parliament in her own right - strictly, it's the 'Crown in Parliament' which is sovereign and she has the reserve power to veto laws (not used in over 300 years).
I don't think that there's an explicit prohibition on her voting at other polls but it would run contrary to the constitutional convention of royal neutrality.
Looks like it is convention. Only when the Royal Dukes were part of the House of Lords were any Royals barred from voting.
Time to get rid of the monarchy if they want to interfere in politics.
The Duke was presenting awards to members of the Foreign Office's Diplomatic Academy and gave a speech commending the foreign office and Britain’s historic role in foreign affairs. - Gordon Rayner for the Telegraph claims this “signals support for Britain staying in the EU”.
I’ve read the prince’s speech, Rayner is talking bollox.
May be this is just Foreign Office spin to the hacks as to how they should interpret the words they gave to the Prince to read out. The Palace have swiftly denied the interpretation.
Or that Rayner is a total tit, just trying to stir it for a good headline (and anti EU propaganda) like all the press do.
Is Kasich going to prove the dark horse of the campaign? On one level, 7% is piss poor. On another, if he knocks out Bush then he's well-placed to pick up most of his support, particularly if Rubio is dropping back too.
Or is this missing the wood for the trees; the wood being that Trump is strolling towards the nomination?
That 50-40 for Clinton is too narrow for her comfort - must be quite a few states where Sanders is close or ahead. I still think she'll make it, but she's about two major mistakes away from disaster (i.e. she can probably afford one, but not two).
And that's with the polls as they are now. What's remarkable is that the momentum remains with Sanders. Where is his ceiling? I'd have expected him to have hit it well before now and yet he keeps rising in the polls. Unless Hillary can arrest that rise then she'll only be about 6% ahead come Super Tuesday. Sure, that'll give her a decent win on the day but Sanders would be likely to take four states, I'd have thought.
"I think Remain will carry Scotland by a big margin, Greater London, Surrey, Berkshire, Hertfordshire, all the big cities and Metropolitan boroughs, Merseyside, Welsh-speaking Wales, Northern Ireland, and Leave will carry everywhere else."
Leave surely has a good chance of carrying some of the metropolitan boroughs that surround the big cities like Walsall, Dudley, Rotherham, Bolton, Wigan, Gateshead, South Tyneside, Barnsley, Doncaster, etc.
On reflection, yes, there's a good chance.
At the same time Remain may carry some middle-class commuter districts near big cities like Harrogate, Solihull, Oadby & Wigston, etc.
Can't see Harrogate voting remain. They wouldn't vote to remain in Yorkshire, given the chance.
I remember watching some results trickle in on May 2nd 1997 in a pub in rural North Yorkshire, eavesdropping on some fellas at he bar reflecting on Norman Lamont's failure to win the seat for the Conservatives. "What folk will never understand," wheezed one "is that Harrogate folk will not vote for a fella unless he is from Yorkshire."
Anyhoo, my working assumption is that you can rank the constituencies from one through to 648 by the total Lib Dem vote over the past three elections and get a reasonably good proxy for how well Remain will do. In my own neck of the woods (Greater Manchester), Remain will win Withington (by a good 70 percent), Cheadle, Hazel Grove, Central, and I'm not really sure beyond that. maybe Gorton, Blackley and Broughton, Salford, Altrincham and Sale West, Oldham East and Saddleworth, Rochdale? And anywhere the Labour postal vote machine is particularly efficient (Oldham West and Royton?)
One thing punters certainly should pay no heed to is the anti Cameron bile poured out on here day after day. its certainly not representative.
Cameron gets more support here than among the public generally.
Really? General public he has over 30% support from memory. He doesn't seem to have that much here. General public Tories he has about 80% from memory, on here I'd estimate more than 1/5th of Tories don't like him.
I'm pretty sure he has more than 30% support here.
I can't think of many non-Tories who approve of him.
Do you think he has over 80% of the Tory voters here?
"I think Remain will carry Scotland by a big margin, Greater London, Surrey, Berkshire, Hertfordshire, all the big cities and Metropolitan boroughs, Merseyside, Welsh-speaking Wales, Northern Ireland, and Leave will carry everywhere else."
Leave surely has a good chance of carrying some of the metropolitan boroughs that surround the big cities like Walsall, Dudley, Rotherham, Bolton, Wigan, Gateshead, South Tyneside, Barnsley, Doncaster, etc.
LEAVE will do brilliantly in any town where there's been large scale immigration from Slovakia, Bulgaria, Poland, etc. Especially Roma immigration. Sad but true.
That's quite a lot of towns. Mostly Labour voting.
Yes and no. Mass Immigration is certainly about as popular as the plague in a lot of Labour towns, and there's no love for the EU either (plus one of the main shots in Remain's locker, the fearmongering about how big businesses and banks are all going to flee, will carry little weight since they don't employ many people in lots of traditional Labour towns anyway).
HOWEVER, don't underestimate how reflexively anti-Tory these voters remain. Even if voters in the likes of Gateshead or Rotherham agree with all of Leave's arguments on paper, I'm really not sure they're going to listen if they're coming out of the mouth of Nigel Lawson or someone similar. Which is why Leave urgently need to start getting some high-profile Labour voices on board, rather than obsessing about which third-rank Tory nonentities are going to join them.
That cuts both ways though; the only chance through the ballot box to give Cameron, Osborne and the other Tory posh boys a bloody nose.
You are talking g as if the labour party are happy about leaving the EU, when the opposite is the case. Same with the lib dems and the SNP and PC. What is the point of a bloody nose if you shoot yourself in the foot. If leave wins then we start negotiations to join the EEA. Not much changes as long as Nissan do not announce abandonment of all future investment in Sunderland) before the changes (or lack of them) take place.
Is Kasich going to prove the dark horse of the campaign? On one level, 7% is piss poor. On another, if he knocks out Bush then he's well-placed to pick up most of his support, particularly if Rubio is dropping back too.
Or is this missing the wood for the trees; the wood being that Trump is strolling towards the nomination?
That 50-40 for Clinton is too narrow for her comfort - must be quite a few states where Sanders is close or ahead. I still think she'll make it, but she's about two major mistakes away from disaster (i.e. she can probably afford one, but not two).
And that's with the polls as they are now. What's remarkable is that the momentum remains with Sanders. Where is his ceiling? I'd have expected him to have hit it well before now and yet he keeps rising in the polls. Unless Hillary can arrest that rise then she'll only be about 6% ahead come Super Tuesday. Sure, that'll give her a decent win on the day but Sanders would be likely to take four states, I'd have thought.
One thing though that I don't see being written about: how the Dem dynamic may change with respect to GOP results. If it becomes increasingly clear that Trump is the candidate, surely Dems will start to think, wait a minute, we may not like Hillary much, but by God we don't want to offer any chance that Trump has his hand on the nuclear buttons. I can see Dems swinging back from their little left adventure when faced with this prospect.
Time to get rid of the monarchy if they want to interfere in politics.
The Duke was presenting awards to members of the Foreign Office's Diplomatic Academy and gave a speech commending the foreign office and Britain’s historic role in foreign affairs. - Gordon Rayner for the Telegraph claims this “signals support for Britain staying in the EU”.
I’ve read the prince’s speech, Rayner is talking bollox.
May be this is just Foreign Office spin to the hacks as to how they should interpret the words they gave to the Prince to read out. The Palace have swiftly denied the interpretation.
Or that Rayner is a total tit, just trying to stir it for a good headline (and anti EU propaganda) like all the press do.
Other media are also interpreting that way as well. BBC of course but Mail also. It looks more like the usual Govt briefings around the speech. No why would the europhile FO Dept do that?
You are talking g as if the labour party are happy about leaving the EU, when the opposite is the case. Same with the lib dems and the SNP and PC. What is the point of a bloody nose if you shoot yourself in the foot. If leave wins then we start negotiations to join the EEA. Not much changes as long as Nissan do not announce abandonment of all future investment in Sunderland) before the changes (or lack of them) take place.
Oh.. I must have missed that big chunk of WVM leaving Labour to join the kippers. Labour activists, MPs and metropolitan luvvies like the EU, those out in the country that think it is a corporatist racket, and the TTIP is going to privatise the health service, and can see the EU Rail Directive killing their dream of privatising the railways in the UK, no so much.
"I think Remain will carry Scotland by a big margin, Greater London, Surrey, Berkshire, Hertfordshire, all the big cities and Metropolitan boroughs, Merseyside, Welsh-speaking Wales, Northern Ireland, and Leave will carry everywhere else."
Leave surely has a good chance of carrying some of the metropolitan boroughs that surround the big cities like Walsall, Dudley, Rotherham, Bolton, Wigan, Gateshead, South Tyneside, Barnsley, Doncaster, etc.
On reflection, yes, there's a good chance.
At the same time Remain may carry some middle-class commuter districts near big cities like Harrogate, Solihull, Oadby & Wigston, etc.
Can't see Harrogate voting remain. They wouldn't vote to remain in Yorkshire, given the chance.
I remember watching some results trickle in on May 2nd 1997 in a pub in rural North Yorkshire, eavesdropping on some fellas at he bar reflecting on Norman Lamont's failure to win the seat for the Conservatives. "What folk will never understand," wheezed one "is that Harrogate folk will not vote for a fella unless he is from Yorkshire."
Anyhoo, my working assumption is that you can rank the constituencies from one through to 648 by the total Lib Dem vote over the past three elections and get a reasonably good proxy for how well Remain will do. In my own neck of the woods (Greater Manchester), Remain will win Withington (by a good 70 percent), Cheadle, Hazel Grove, Central, and I'm not really sure beyond that. maybe Gorton, Blackley and Broughton, Salford, Altrincham and Sale West, Oldham East and Saddleworth, Rochdale? And anywhere the Labour postal vote machine is particularly efficient (Oldham West and Royton?)
The Labour postal vote machine will turn out remain voters? Wow.
"I think Remain will carry Scotland by a big margin, Greater London, Surrey, Berkshire, Hertfordshire, all the big cities and Metropolitan boroughs, Merseyside, Welsh-speaking Wales, Northern Ireland, and Leave will carry everywhere else."
Leave surely has a good chance of carrying some of the metropolitan boroughs that surround the big cities like Walsall, Dudley, Rotherham, Bolton, Wigan, Gateshead, South Tyneside, Barnsley, Doncaster, etc.
On reflection, yes, there's a good chance.
At the same time Remain may carry some middle-class commuter districts near big cities like Harrogate, Solihull, Oadby & Wigston, etc.
Can't see Harrogate voting remain. They wouldn't vote to remain in Yorkshire, given the chance.
I remember watching some results trickle in on May 2nd 1997 in a pub in rural North Yorkshire, eavesdropping on some fellas at he bar reflecting on Norman Lamont's failure to win the seat for the Conservatives. "What folk will never understand," wheezed one "is that Harrogate folk will not vote for a fella unless he is from Yorkshire."
Anyhoo, my working assumption is that you can rank the constituencies from one through to 648 by the total Lib Dem vote over the past three elections and get a reasonably good proxy for how well Remain will do. In my own neck of the woods (Greater Manchester), Remain will win Withington (by a good 70 percent), Cheadle, Hazel Grove, Central, and I'm not really sure beyond that. maybe Gorton, Blackley and Broughton, Salford, Altrincham and Sale West, Oldham East and Saddleworth, Rochdale? And anywhere the Labour postal vote machine is particularly efficient (Oldham West and Royton?)
"I think Remain will carry Scotland by a big margin, Greater London, Surrey, Berkshire, Hertfordshire, all the big cities and Metropolitan boroughs, Merseyside, Welsh-speaking Wales, Northern Ireland, and Leave will carry everywhere else."
Leave surely has a good chance of carrying some of the metropolitan boroughs that surround the big cities like Walsall, Dudley, Rotherham, Bolton, Wigan, Gateshead, South Tyneside, Barnsley, Doncaster, etc.
On reflection, yes, there's a good chance.
At the same time Remain may carry some middle-class commuter districts near big cities like Harrogate, Solihull, Oadby & Wigston, etc.
Can't see Harrogate voting remain. They wouldn't vote to remain in Yorkshire, given the chance.
I remember watching some results trickle in on May 2nd 1997 in a pub in rural North Yorkshire, eavesdropping on some fellas at he bar reflecting on Norman Lamont's failure to win the seat for the Conservatives. "What folk will never understand," wheezed one "is that Harrogate folk will not vote for a fella unless he is from Yorkshire."
Anyhoo, my working assumption is that you can rank the constituencies from one through to 648 by the total Lib Dem vote over the past three elections and get a reasonably good proxy for how well Remain will do. In my own neck of the woods (Greater Manchester), Remain will win Withington (by a good 70 percent), Cheadle, Hazel Grove, Central, and I'm not really sure beyond that. maybe Gorton, Blackley and Broughton, Salford, Altrincham and Sale West, Oldham East and Saddleworth, Rochdale? And anywhere the Labour postal vote machine is particularly efficient (Oldham West and Royton?)
The Labour postal vote machine will turn out remain voters? Wow.
I was asking rather than predicting. Labour is particularly good at getting its postal vote out - will this be a factor?
Mr. Indigo, I'm surprised the left isn't making more of TTIP.
Because the Leftie metro bubble wants to stay IN. The last thing they want to do is stir up the natives in their Northern constituencies about things that might make them vote OUT. Westminster Labour want an agenda that motivates London Labour and puts the potentially kipper inclined Old Labour to sleep.
Funny isn't it. Labour profess to hate the Tories and Cameron, this referendum is a Class A opportunity to massively embarrass them, and potentially force Cameron to resign and get replaced by someone much less able. But they just cant see though their Europhilia, its Corbyn all over again, Labour have no taste for the jugular.
"I think Remain will carry Scotland by a big margin, Greater London, Surrey, Berkshire, Hertfordshire, all the big cities and Metropolitan boroughs, Merseyside, Welsh-speaking Wales, Northern Ireland, and Leave will carry everywhere else."
Leave surely has a good chance of carrying some of the metropolitan boroughs that surround the big cities like Walsall, Dudley, Rotherham, Bolton, Wigan, Gateshead, South Tyneside, Barnsley, Doncaster, etc.
LEAVE will do brilliantly in any town where there's been large scale immigration from Slovakia, Bulgaria, Poland, etc. Especially Roma immigration. Sad but true.
That's quite a lot of towns. Mostly Labour voting.
Yes and no. Mass Immigration is certainly about as popular as the plague in a lot of Labour towns, and there's no love for the EU either (plus one of the main shots in Remain's locker, the fearmongering about how big businesses and banks are all going to flee, will carry little weight since they don't employ many people in lots of traditional Labour towns anyway).
HOWEVER, don't underestimate how reflexively anti-Tory these voters remain. Even if voters in the likes of Gateshead or Rotherham agree with all of Leave's arguments on paper, I'm really not sure they're going to listen if they're coming out of the mouth of Nigel Lawson or someone similar. Which is why Leave urgently need to start getting some high-profile Labour voices on board, rather than obsessing about which third-rank Tory nonentities are going to join them.
That cuts both ways though; the only chance through the ballot box to give Cameron, Osborne and the other Tory posh boys a bloody nose.
You are talking g as if the labour party are happy about leaving the EU, when the opposite is the case. Same with the lib dems and the SNP and PC. What is the point of a bloody nose if you shoot yourself in the foot. If leave wins then we start negotiations to join the EEA. Not much changes as long as Nissan do not announce abandonment of all future investment in Sunderland) before the changes (or lack of them) take place.
"I think Remain will carry Scotland by a big margin, Greater London, Surrey, Berkshire, Hertfordshire, all the big cities and Metropolitan boroughs, Merseyside, Welsh-speaking Wales, Northern Ireland, and Leave will carry everywhere else."
Leave surely has a good chance of carrying some of the metropolitan boroughs that surround the big cities like Walsall, Dudley, Rotherham, Bolton, Wigan, Gateshead, South Tyneside, Barnsley, Doncaster, etc.
On reflection, yes, there's a good chance.
At the same time Remain may carry some middle-class commuter districts near big cities like Harrogate, Solihull, Oadby & Wigston, etc.
Can't see Harrogate voting remain. They wouldn't vote to remain in Yorkshire, given the chance.
I remember watching some results trickle in on May 2nd 1997 in a pub in rural North Yorkshire, eavesdropping on some fellas at he bar reflecting on Norman Lamont's failure to win the seat for the Conservatives. "What folk will never understand," wheezed one "is that Harrogate folk will not vote for a fella unless he is from Yorkshire."
Anyhoo, my working assumption is that you can rank the constituencies from one through to 648 by the total Lib Dem vote over the past three elections and get a reasonably good proxy for how well Remain will do. In my own neck of the woods (Greater Manchester), Remain will win Withington (by a good 70 percent), Cheadle, Hazel Grove, Central, and I'm not really sure beyond that. maybe Gorton, Blackley and Broughton, Salford, Altrincham and Sale West, Oldham East and Saddleworth, Rochdale? And anywhere the Labour postal vote machine is particularly efficient (Oldham West and Royton?)
The Labour postal vote machine will turn out remain voters? Wow.
What is the position of the "clan elders" on the referendum?
"I think Remain will carry Scotland by a big margin, Greater London, Surrey, Berkshire, Hertfordshire, all the big cities and Metropolitan boroughs, Merseyside, Welsh-speaking Wales, Northern Ireland, and Leave will carry everywhere else."
Leave surely has a good chance of carrying some of the metropolitan boroughs that surround the big cities like Walsall, Dudley, Rotherham, Bolton, Wigan, Gateshead, South Tyneside, Barnsley, Doncaster, etc.
LEAVE will do brilliantly in any town where there's been large scale immigration from Slovakia, Bulgaria, Poland, etc. Especially Roma immigration. Sad but true.
That's quite a lot of towns. Mostly Labour voting.
Yes and no. Mass Immigration is certainly about as popular as the plague in a lot of Labour towns, and there's no love for the EU either (plus one of the main shots in Remain's locker, the fearmongering about how big businesses and banks are all going to flee, will carry little weight since they don't employ many people in lots of traditional Labour towns anyway).
HOWEVER, don't underestimate how reflexively anti-Tory these voters remain. Even if voters in the likes of Gateshead or Rotherham agree with all of Leave's arguments on paper, I'm really not sure they're going to listen if they're coming out of the mouth of Nigel Lawson or someone similar. Which is why Leave urgently need to start getting some high-profile Labour voices on board, rather than obsessing about which third-rank Tory nonentities are going to join them.
That cuts both ways though; the only chance through the ballot box to give Cameron, Osborne and the other Tory posh boys a bloody nose.
You are talking g as if the labour party are happy about leaving the EU, when the opposite is the case. Same with the lib dems and the SNP and PC. What is the point of a bloody nose if you shoot yourself in the foot. If leave wins then we start negotiations to join the EEA. Not much changes as long as Nissan do not announce abandonment of all future investment in Sunderland) before the changes (or lack of them) take place.
The Corbynistas seem quite eurosceptic to me. Boss's club innit? There appear to be several hundred thousand of them; they control the party and are highly motivated. This constituency seems to me to be one that has been neglected in the referendum discussions.
The Corbynistas seem quite eurosceptic to me. Boss's club innit? There appear to be several hundred thousand of them; they control the party and are highly motivated. This constituency seems to me to be one that has been neglected in the referendum discussions.
That's an interesting question, what are the motivated hard-left going to do. They are unlikely to take their lead from Jezz and McMao, they think power flows in the other direction. There may only be a few hundred thousand of them but their likeliness to vote must be very high.
"I think Remain will carry Scotland by a big margin, Greater London, Surrey, Berkshire, Hertfordshire, all the big cities and Metropolitan boroughs, Merseyside, Welsh-speaking Wales, Northern Ireland, and Leave will carry everywhere else."
Leave surely has a good chance of carrying some of the metropolitan boroughs that surround the big cities like Walsall, Dudley, Rotherham, Bolton, Wigan, Gateshead, South Tyneside, Barnsley, Doncaster, etc.
LEAVE will do brilliantly in any town where there's been large scale immigration from Slovakia, Bulgaria, Poland, etc. Especially Roma immigration. Sad but true.
That's quite a lot of towns. Mostly Labour voting.
Yes and no. Mass Immigration is certainly about as popular as the plague in a lot of Labour towns, and there's no love for the EU either (plus one of the main shots in Remain's locker, the fearmongering about how big businesses and banks are all going to flee, will carry little weight since they don't employ many people in lots of traditional Labour towns anyway).
HOWEVER, don't underestimate how
That cuts both ways though; the only chance through the ballot box to give Cameron, Osborne and the other Tory posh boys a bloody nose.
You are talking g as if the labour party are happy about leaving the EU, when the opposite is the case. Same with the lib dems and the SNP and PC. What is the point of a bloody nose if you shoot yourself in the foot. If leave wins then we start negotiations to join the EEA. Not much changes as long as Nissan do not announce abandonment of all future investment in Sunderland) before the changes (or lack of them) take place.
What total crap.
Nissan have alreay said Brexit worn't affect their plans and are startinbg Infiniti production at Sunderland.
My best guess is that Leave will win about 45% of the vote.
I think most voters over 50, and most working class voters will vote Leave. I think that Conservative voters will vote about 50-55% for Leave, and UKIP voters will vote about 90% for Leave. About 25-30% of the rest will vote Leave.
I think Remain will carry Scotland by a big margin, Greater London, Surrey, Berkshire, Hertfordshire, all the big cities and Metropolitan boroughs, Merseyside, Welsh-speaking Wales, Northern Ireland, and Leave will carry everywhere else.
Are you going to be (are you already?) playing an active part in the campaign?
I always found your UKIP (and earlier, Tory) reports from the battlegrounds to be very insightful.
It's certainly my intention to help whichever organisation is designated as the official Leave campaign group. I expect I'll be delivering a ton of leaflets in Luton, a town where Leave may do quite well, given that Kelvin Hopkins will be campaigning for Leave.
Thanks.
I'm surprised you haven't started yet, in a way. Do you think you might have already if the organisation hadn't been so poor?
Yes. At this stage, I don't know who to assist.
If they can't get you, of all people, out hard at work in the name of the cause, then they're doing something badly, badly wrong.
The Corbynistas seem quite eurosceptic to me. Boss's club innit? There appear to be several hundred thousand of them; they control the party and are highly motivated. This constituency seems to me to be one that has been neglected in the referendum discussions.
That's an interesting question, what are the motivated hard-left going to do. They are unlikely to take their lead from Jezz and McMao, they think power flows in the other direction. There may only be a few hundred thousand of them but their likeliness to vote must be very high.
Speaking as a former NO2EU voter myself (and if they or their ilk ran again at a European election, I'd most likely cast the same way) I can't recall the experiment being particularly successful.
153k in 2009 was an interesting figure, probably more relevant than the 32k in 2014 as a "ceiling" for hard-left anti-EU feeling.
In my neck of the woods at least, their campaign in 2014 was driven very hard by the communists (though I imagine socialists/trade unionists were rather more important in other bits of the country).
I think it's clear that most trade unions are going to come down on the "remain" side.
Is Kasich going to prove the dark horse of the campaign? On one level, 7% is piss poor. On another, if he knocks out Bush then he's well-placed to pick up most of his support, particularly if Rubio is dropping back too.
Or is this missing the wood for the trees; the wood being that Trump is strolling towards the nomination?
That 50-40 for Clinton is too narrow for her comfort - must be quite a few states where Sanders is close or ahead. I still think she'll make it, but she's about two major mistakes away from disaster (i.e. she can probably afford one, but not two).
And that's with the polls as they are now. What's remarkable is that the momentum remains with Sanders. Where is his ceiling? I'd have expected him to have hit it well before now and yet he keeps rising in the polls. Unless Hillary can arrest that rise then she'll only be about 6% ahead come Super Tuesday. Sure, that'll give her a decent win on the day but Sanders would be likely to take four states, I'd have thought.
One thing though that I don't see being written about: how the Dem dynamic may change with respect to GOP results. If it becomes increasingly clear that Trump is the candidate, surely Dems will start to think, wait a minute, we may not like Hillary much, but by God we don't want to offer any chance that Trump has his hand on the nuclear buttons. I can see Dems swinging back from their little left adventure when faced with this prospect.
On present polling Sanders leads Trump by more than Hillary does so if anything the electability argument favours Bernie at the moment
The Corbynistas seem quite eurosceptic to me. Boss's club innit? There appear to be several hundred thousand of them; they control the party and are highly motivated. This constituency seems to me to be one that has been neglected in the referendum discussions.
That's an interesting question, what are the motivated hard-left going to do. They are unlikely to take their lead from Jezz and McMao, they think power flows in the other direction. There may only be a few hundred thousand of them but their likeliness to vote must be very high.
Speaking as a former NO2EU voter myself (and if they or their ilk ran again at a European election, I'd most likely cast the same way) I can't recall the experiment being particularly successful.
153k in 2009 was an interesting figure, probably more relevant than the 32k in 2014 as a "ceiling" for hard-left anti-EU feeling.
Does that mean the hard-left is mostly going to be REMAIN, or mostly "Did not vote because we were on a sit-in"
I'm feeling generous. I'll lay 5/1 if you're interested?
It's got to be closer to 500/1. In fact in the last five general elections since 1997 there's only been one result close to a tie, so in reality it's more like 3000/1. No I'm not offering to lay at that price
You should be. It's more like 1,000,000/1
If we had kept our mouths shut I reckon Pong would've been on at 1/9 or bigger the other side
What's with your kisses at the start of replies? x
Just full of love!
Here's a snip for you to copy and paste, assuming the unicode comes out okay...
I'm feeling generous. I'll lay 5/1 if you're interested?
It's got to be closer to 500/1. In fact in the last five general elections since 1997 there's only been one result close to a tie, so in reality it's more like 3000/1. No I'm not offering to lay at that price
You should be. It's more like 1,000,000/1
If we had kept our mouths shut I reckon Pong would've been on at 1/9 or bigger the other side
What's with your kisses at the start of replies? x
Just full of love!
Here's a snip for you to copy and paste, assuming the unicode comes out okay...
David Cameron has suffered a blow this morning after Martin Schulz, president the European Parliament, told him that the deal could not be legally binding before the EU referendum.
But the date of the Referendum has not been announced yet. This means that the date of the Referendum must be irrelevant, and as had been suggested by other commentators, the European Parliament is going to put the agreement in a drawer and not look at it until after the referendum, when ever Dave decides to call it. So we couldn't wait for them to agree it and then hold the referendum. This has the smell of foul play, it will wait for a REMAIN vote and then eviscerate the agreement in the EU Parliament as senior politicians spread their hands apologetically and tell us it was outside their control, but never mind eh, because we voted to REMAIN.
My best guess is that Leave will win about 45% of the vote.
I think most voters over 50, and most working class voters will vote Leave. I think that Conservative voters will vote about 50-55% for Leave, and UKIP voters will vote about 90% for Leave. About 25-30% of the rest will vote Leave.
I think Remain will carry Scotland by a big margin, Greater London, Surrey, Berkshire, Hertfordshire, all the big cities and Metropolitan boroughs, Merseyside, Welsh-speaking Wales, Northern Ireland, and Leave will carry everywhere else.
Are you going to be (are you already?) playing an active part in the campaign?
I always found your UKIP (and earlier, Tory) reports from the battlegrounds to be very insightful.
It's certainly my intention to help whichever organisation is designated as the official Leave campaign group. I expect I'll be delivering a ton of leaflets in Luton, a town where Leave may do quite well, given that Kelvin Hopkins will be campaigning for Leave.
Thanks.
I'm surprised you haven't started yet, in a way. Do you think you might have already if the organisation hadn't been so poor?
Yes. At this stage, I don't know who to assist.
If they can't get you, of all people, out hard at work in the name of the cause, then they're doing something badly, badly wrong.
My thoughts exactly. This is the result of the vanity and obsessions of Cummings, Dr North and the rest of the Eurosceptic pantomime.
David Cameron has suffered a blow this morning after Martin Schulz, president the European Parliament, told him that the deal could not be legally binding before the EU referendum.
But the date of the Referendum has not been announced yet. This means that the date of the Referendum must be irrelevant, and as had been suggested by other commentators, the European Parliament is going to put the agreement in a drawer and not look at it until after the referendum, when ever Dave decides to call it. So we couldn't wait for them to agree it and then hold the referendum. This has the smell of foul play, it will wait for a REMAIN vote and then eviscerate the agreement in the EU Parliament as senior politicians spread their hands apologetically and tell us it was outside their control, but never mind eh, because we voted to REMAIN. If that's anything close to what happens, we will be leaving very shortly afterwards as the PM is forced out and replaced by someone who agrees to Referendum II as their first Bill through Parliament!
Is there anything to which Ulster's answer is not "No"?
BTW I assume you mean Northern Ireland i.e. the 6 counties rather than Ulster which consists of 9, 3 of which are in the Republic........
The DUP don't bother with such niceties. They vowed to save Ulster from sodomy without worrying too much about whether Donegal, Monaghan and Cavan felt the need of such salvation.
Is there anything to which Ulster's answer is not "No"?
BTW I assume you mean Northern Ireland i.e. the 6 counties rather than Ulster which consists of 9, 3 of which are in the Republic........
The DUP don't bother with such niceties. They vowed to save Ulster from sodomy without worrying too much about whether Donegal, Monaghan and Cavan felt the need of such salvation.
Reminds me of the Soviet era story of two factories in Russia - one produced left shoes and the other right shoes. This meant that only the officials of Gosplan could sell a pair - the local factory managers could not.
The biggest looser was Shetland, Aberdeen did see a annual price fall but only 1.8 percent compared to Shetland's 13.3% drop.
The large Aberdeenshire area had no change.
Aberdeen City had a massive drop in the volume of sales.
East Ayrshire boom - Malky's neighbours selling up?
How very droll, I am not in East Ayrshire. Bit surprising as it is poorest part of Ayrshire and not best transport links in parts, but would be low starting prices.
Is there anything to which Ulster's answer is not "No"?
BTW I assume you mean Northern Ireland i.e. the 6 counties rather than Ulster which consists of 9, 3 of which are in the Republic........
The DUP don't bother with such niceties. They vowed to save Ulster from sodomy without worrying too much about whether Donegal, Monaghan and Cavan felt the need of such salvation.
Is there anything to which Ulster's answer is not "No"?
BTW I assume you mean Northern Ireland i.e. the 6 counties rather than Ulster which consists of 9, 3 of which are in the Republic........
The DUP don't bother with such niceties. They vowed to save Ulster from sodomy without worrying too much about whether Donegal, Monaghan and Cavan felt the need of such salvation.
Are you saying the Catholic Church were pro ?
In word or in deed?
My favourite Irish priest scandal concerned the priest who died in a gay sauna, but fortunately two other priests were on hand to administer the last rites.
So farewell then, Liz Lochhead, whose term as Scotland’s national poet, or “makar”, has come to an end.
let me make a very modest prediction: whosoever succeeds Ms Lochhead will not be a publicly declared Unionist. Nor will they be the kind of poet who challenges nationalist shibboleths or asks interesting — that is, inconvenient — questions about language or identity. There are, we keep telling ourselves, many Scotlands but the “new” establishment has room for surprisingly few of them. The new “makar” will have to pass a mysterious, and unacknowledged, “Scottishness” test.
And why not? This is a country that loves lying to itself. The manufacturing of comfortable myths is our biggest growth business. One of the most fashionable current myths is that “Scots”, as commonly spoken or understood by the vast majority of Scottish citizens, is a language distinct from standard English.
It is easier to avoid our English-speaking reality and, instead, kid ourselves that we are something we are not. A more confident culture would have no need to fool itself, but this fooling is the new Scottish cringe.
@iainmartin1: Tory MP to me on his colleagues awaiting a lead to go Leave: "Lots of people are waiting for Boris..." Is a play in that. Waiting for Boris.
People in France are forgoing their cups of coffee in angry protest over a sexist sign in a Starbucks window
The headlines in France seemed to tell a very clear story. "In Saudi Arabia, a Starbucks prohibits women," reported Le Monde. "Saudi Arabia: Starbucks prohibits women from entering," said Marie Claire. In recent weeks, several media outlets have run with the story.
Is Kasich going to prove the dark horse of the campaign? On one level, 7% is piss poor. On another, if he knocks out Bush then he's well-placed to pick up most of his support, particularly if Rubio is dropping back too.
Or is this missing the wood for the trees; the wood being that Trump is strolling towards the nomination?
That 50-40 for Clinton is too narrow for her comfort - must be quite a few states where Sanders is close or ahead. I still think she'll make it, but she's about two major mistakes away from disaster (i.e. she can probably afford one, but not two).
And that's with the polls as they are now. What's remarkable is that the momentum remains with Sanders. Where is his ceiling? I'd have expected him to have hit it well before now and yet he keeps rising in the polls. Unless Hillary can arrest that rise then she'll only be about 6% ahead come Super Tuesday. Sure, that'll give her a decent win on the day but Sanders would be likely to take four states, I'd have thought.
One thing though that I don't see being written about: how the Dem dynamic may change with respect to GOP results. If it becomes increasingly clear that Trump is the candidate, surely Dems will start to think, wait a minute, we may not like Hillary much, but by God we don't want to offer any chance that Trump has his hand on the nuclear buttons. I can see Dems swinging back from their little left adventure when faced with this prospect.
On present polling Sanders leads Trump by more than Hillary does so if anything the electability argument favours Bernie at the moment
Jimmy Carter led Ronald Reagan by 60 to 31 at this point in 1980 due to Reagan's perceived 'extremism'. Reagan eventually won a huge 51 to 41 victory. Polls at this stage have a value, probably more so for HRC v Trump as they are known and expected, but I wouldn't focus on them too much.
BTW I assume you mean Northern Ireland i.e. the 6 counties rather than Ulster which consists of 9, 3 of which are in the Republic........
The nine county 'province' was an Elizabethan creation. Ulster is an older entity than that and its borders have varied considerably over the centuries.
David Cameron has suffered a blow this morning after Martin Schulz, president the European Parliament, told him that the deal could not be legally binding before the EU referendum.
But the date of the Referendum has not been announced yet. This means that the date of the Referendum must be irrelevant, and as had been suggested by other commentators, the European Parliament is going to put the agreement in a drawer and not look at it until after the referendum, when ever Dave decides to call it. So we couldn't wait for them to agree it and then hold the referendum. This has the smell of foul play, it will wait for a REMAIN vote and then eviscerate the agreement in the EU Parliament as senior politicians spread their hands apologetically and tell us it was outside their control, but never mind eh, because we voted to REMAIN.
If that's anything close to what happens, we will be leaving very shortly afterwards as the PM is forced out and replaced by someone who agrees to Referendum II as their first Bill through Parliament!
The technical position is this: the Parliament only gets to vote on the detaI
Comments
HOWEVER, don't underestimate how reflexively anti-Tory these voters remain. Even if voters in the likes of Gateshead or Rotherham agree with all of Leave's arguments on paper, I'm really not sure they're going to listen if they're coming out of the mouth of Nigel Lawson or someone similar. Which is why Leave urgently need to start getting some high-profile Labour voices on board, rather than obsessing about which third-rank Tory nonentities are going to join them.
Number of actual votes in that band = 330,000, based on a turnout around 70%. Approximating, each individual result (i.e. Remain votes - Leave votes) within this narrow band is equally likely. Only one of these is a tie.
1/20 * 1/330,000 = 1 in 6.6m
So I underestimated :-)
If a recount was called immediately then it would only take an hour if all the counting teams were still in place, but if it were called a day later it could take days to set up and count again.
The notion that we could rely on the UN to keep the EU in order is really very quaint, isn't it?
You're on the right side of the bet though
Max Potential Profit £5 million plus.
There's not been a tied parliamentary election since 1886 (I think, from a quick Google), and there have been 32 general elections, so about 20,000 constituency contests, since then.
The odds of there being one in a referendum with an electorate measured in the tens of millions rather than tens of thousands - even one where the polls are currently close to level pegging - ought to run into seven figures.
Something that is unthinkable needs a long time to be accepted as a possibility or as a fact.
That is why Remain has such a large lead in betting markets.
Example:
Steve Kornacki @SteveKornacki 7m7 minutes ago
CW: Trump only leads because the GOP won't unite behind an alternative!
Reality: Trump leads 1-on-1s w/ Cruz & Rubio http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2016/02/trump-clinton-still-have-big-sc-leads.html …
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/02/has-nigel-farage-got-david-cameron-running-scared/
Media Mole @ns_media 2h2 hours ago
Jeb Bush forgot to renew his website, so of course now it redirects you to Donald Trump's http://www.newstatesman.com/world/2016/02/jeb-bush-forgot-renew-his-website-so-now-it-redirects-you-donald-trumps …
And everyone seems to be talking about it in S.Carolina these past few hours:
https://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=/m/0cqt90, /m/07j6ty, /m/0dpr5f, /m/02zzm_, /m/019x9z&geo=US-SC&date=now 4-H&cmpt=q&tz=Etc/GMT
Reminder, Jeb Bush was already battling for last place after Trump reminded people of how terrible G.W.Bush was as president.
It will be back to back defeats.
IIRC, she's forbidden from voting at a GE because she is a 'House' of parliament in her own right - strictly, it's the 'Crown in Parliament' which is sovereign and she has the reserve power to veto laws (not used in over 300 years).
I don't think that there's an explicit prohibition on her voting at other polls but it would run contrary to the constitutional convention of royal neutrality.
http://www.royal.gov.uk/MonarchUK/QueenandGovernment/Queenandvoting.aspx
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/eureferendum/12159067/David-Cameron-in-last-ditch-EU-referendum-talks-to-secure-deal-before-Friday-live.html#update-20160216-1615
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/feb/16/eagles-of-death-metal-frontman?CMP=fb_gu
Anyhoo, my working assumption is that you can rank the constituencies from one through to 648 by the total Lib Dem vote over the past three elections and get a reasonably good proxy for how well Remain will do.
In my own neck of the woods (Greater Manchester), Remain will win Withington (by a good 70 percent), Cheadle, Hazel Grove, Central, and I'm not really sure beyond that. maybe Gorton, Blackley and Broughton, Salford, Altrincham and Sale West, Oldham East and Saddleworth, Rochdale? And anywhere the Labour postal vote machine is particularly efficient (Oldham West and Royton?)
Do you think he has over 80% of the Tory voters here?
If leave wins then we start negotiations to join the EEA. Not much changes as long as Nissan do not announce abandonment of all future investment in Sunderland) before the changes (or lack of them) take place.
One thing though that I don't see being written about: how the Dem dynamic may change with respect to GOP results. If it becomes increasingly clear that Trump is the candidate, surely Dems will start to think, wait a minute, we may not like Hillary much, but by God we don't want to offer any chance that Trump has his hand on the nuclear buttons. I can see Dems swinging back from their little left adventure when faced with this prospect.
Funny isn't it. Labour profess to hate the Tories and Cameron, this referendum is a Class A opportunity to massively embarrass them, and potentially force Cameron to resign and get replaced by someone much less able. But they just cant see though their Europhilia, its Corbyn all over again, Labour have no taste for the jugular.
Git....
153k in 2009 was an interesting figure, probably more relevant than the 32k in 2014 as a "ceiling" for hard-left anti-EU feeling.
In my neck of the woods at least, their campaign in 2014 was driven very hard by the communists (though I imagine socialists/trade unionists were rather more important in other bits of the country).
I think it's clear that most trade unions are going to come down on the "remain" side.
BTW I assume you mean Northern Ireland i.e. the 6 counties rather than Ulster which consists of 9, 3 of which are in the Republic........
✂
I say this as somebody firm for Leave.
If that's anything close to what happens, we will be leaving very shortly afterwards as the PM is forced out and replaced by someone who agrees to Referendum II as their first Bill through Parliament!
Trump: 32
Cruz: 16
Rubio: 13
Bush: 12
Kasich: 9
Carson: 4
http://www.free-times.com/blogs/poll-trump-leads-s.c.-and-his-supporters-arent-going-anywhere?utm_campaign=shareaholic&utm_medium=twitter&utm_source=socialnetwork
My favourite Irish priest scandal concerned the priest who died in a gay sauna, but fortunately two other priests were on hand to administer the last rites.
£12.08 Backing Jeb Bush at Paddy at 10-1 cashed for £16.55
Come on Gollum , you are scraping the barrel now. Even a snivelling crawling apologist Toom Tabard like you can do better than that.
GOP
Trump 28
Rubio 22
Cruz 19
Carson 7
Kasich 7
Bush 4
Dems
Clinton 52
Sanders 40
http://www.vagazette.com/news/dp-virginia-politics-trump-leads-in-new-cnu-poll-20160216-post.html
People in France are forgoing their cups of coffee in angry protest over a sexist sign in a Starbucks window
The headlines in France seemed to tell a very clear story. "In Saudi Arabia, a Starbucks prohibits women," reported Le Monde. "Saudi Arabia: Starbucks prohibits women from entering," said Marie Claire. In recent weeks, several media outlets have run with the story.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/blogs-trending-35588987
And of course it is because it is the law....So all the tw@tter haters better start boycotting a hell of a lot more than a coffee.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BBC_Three_(former)
BTW I assume you mean Northern Ireland i.e. the 6 counties rather than Ulster which consists of 9, 3 of which are in the Republic........
The nine county 'province' was an Elizabethan creation. Ulster is an older entity than that and its borders have varied considerably over the centuries.
The technical position is this: the Parliament only gets to vote on the detaI
Do TRY and keep up