Just bloody wait to hold the referendum then. The date hasn't been announced yet even. Is Cameron really so keen on rushing to hold it before we can think so much that we have to do it before deal is final???
Can anyone explain why Cameron seems to want to hold the referendum so soon? I presume it is because he thinks he will have a better chance of winning it, but why?
The thinking is he wants June before the migrant crisis gets worse again over the summer. The Euro crisis is threatening to kick off again as well.
There continues to be evidence that the race for the Republican nomination will get a lot tighter down the line as more candidates drop out. Trump leads Rubio only 46/45 in a head to head match up, with supporters of Bush (73/10), Cruz (67/26), Carson (54/34), and Kasich (50/29) all strongly preferring Rubio to Trump if those were their choices. If Rubio can make the race in South Carolina more into a choice between him and Trump he has the potential to end up with a strong second place finish. Trump has wider leads in head to heads with Bush (50/40) and Cruz (48/38).
It makes sense to have the referendum only after every European institution who can have a say has done so so we know exactly what we are voting on and that it cannot be changed after our vote..
I agree. That's the point I've repeatedly made, and have been accused of lying, dishonesty etc etc for my trouble.
Unfortunately it's not possible to have even the faintest idea, let alone know exactly, what we would be voting for if we vote Leave.
That's life. Voters will just have to live with the uncertainty, which of course is hugely, hugely greater on the Leave side.
In any case, it's a very odd argument to say (as you do) that (a) the renegotiation is nothing, and (b) that's it vital to know exactly what its status is. Why do you care?
I can't see a way of squaring that circle unless the UK Government (totally neutrally): (1) negotiated a deal to Remain and got everyone signed up and (b) simultaneously negotiated an alternative for Leave, which might include a slightly lower level of single market access but restrictions on free movement, and also got it all signed up
And then presented them to the electorate saying: You Choose.
It's a view, but only one that holds water in an ideal unbiased world, and, of course, could easily be gamed.
It makes sense to have the referendum only after every European institution who can have a say has done so so we know exactly what we are voting on and that it cannot be changed after our vote..
I agree. That's the point I've repeatedly made, and have been accused of lying, dishonesty etc etc for my trouble.
Unfortunately it's not possible to have even the faintest idea, let alone know exactly, what we would be voting for if we vote Leave.
That's life. Voters will just have to live with the uncertainty, which of course is hugely, hugely greater on the Leave side.
Jeez. You make this false point ad nauseam. Nobody can predict the future. There are huge uncertainties staying in too. In 1975 nobody predicted we would be where we are now, we were assured it was just a free trade area.
For one thing, staying in yokes us to the EUs economic future and it looks awful.
Can someone explain to me how Cameron even BEGINS to sell this deal, when the EU Parliament is openly saying that they might scupper it, anyway.
Either Cameron is lying, or the EU Parliament is lying. Either way, it's not a good look for europhiles.
"The EU Parliament" hasn't said anything. The President, Martin Schulz, is doing his job by saying they're not just patsies who will vote for any old deal, but neither he nor anyone else can say they'll definitely vote for or against some yet-to-be-defined agreement. In practice I doubt if they'll vote it down.
No, Nick, you haven't understood. It is an article of religious faith amongst the Leavers that anything Cameron, or any EU bureaucrat, or any European politician says on the subject is by definition a lie.
Indeed - would that we could be spared yet another day of SeanT hyperbole - 'Italy are gonna win this'......
@Casino_Royale: Of course, you are right. There is no way of squaring the circle (although it would have been nice, and from my point of view might possibly have inclined me to Leave, if some effort had been made to explore the possibilities).
So, as I said, voters will just have to incorporate the uncertainties in their decision. It's a nice try from the Leave side to try to pretend that this is primarily a problem for Remain. I take my hat off to them for chutzpah, but I don't think it will wash.
It makes sense to have the referendum only after every European institution who can have a say has done so so we know exactly what we are voting on and that it cannot be changed after our vote..
I agree. That's the point I've repeatedly made, and have been accused of lying, dishonesty etc etc for my trouble.
Unfortunately it's not possible to have even the faintest idea, let alone know exactly, what we would be voting for if we vote Leave.
That's life. Voters will just have to live with the uncertainty, which of course is hugely, hugely greater on the Leave side.
In any case, it's a very odd argument to say (as you do) that (a) the renegotiation is nothing, and (b) that it's vital to know exactly what its status is. Why do you care what its status is if it's trivial?
I have not accused you of lying or dishonesty, for the record.
We need to know the details of the deal in its final approved state before we vote. Based on what I have learnt so far, it does not achieve much. But whether it's trivial or far-reaching or something in between it needs to be the final deal not an interim draft.
And of course I care if the final deal is trivial since that will be a factor - though not the only one - in my vote. Why would you think otherwise? I put down late yesterday evening some thoughts on what things in a deal might shift me more to Remain.
Just bloody wait to hold the referendum then. The date hasn't been announced yet even. Is Cameron really so keen on rushing to hold it before we can think so much that we have to do it before deal is final???
Can anyone explain why Cameron seems to want to hold the referendum so soon? I presume it is because he thinks he will have a better chance of winning it, but why?
The thinking is he wants June before the migrant crisis gets worse again over the summer. The Euro crisis is threatening to kick off again as well.
Definitely these two, but also I think there is a feeling that 'Out' really haven't got their act together and with more time they might.
There continues to be evidence that the race for the Republican nomination will get a lot tighter down the line as more candidates drop out. Trump leads Rubio only 46/45 in a head to head match up, with supporters of Bush (73/10), Cruz (67/26), Carson (54/34), and Kasich (50/29) all strongly preferring Rubio to Trump if those were their choices. If Rubio can make the race in South Carolina more into a choice between him and Trump he has the potential to end up with a strong second place finish. Trump has wider leads in head to heads with Bush (50/40) and Cruz (48/38).
There continues to be evidence that the race for the Republican nomination will get a lot tighter down the line as more candidates drop out. Trump leads Rubio only 46/45 in a head to head match up, with supporters of Bush (73/10), Cruz (67/26), Carson (54/34), and Kasich (50/29) all strongly preferring Rubio to Trump if those were their choices. If Rubio can make the race in South Carolina more into a choice between him and Trump he has the potential to end up with a strong second place finish. Trump has wider leads in head to heads with Bush (50/40) and Cruz (48/38).
Can someone explain to me how Cameron even BEGINS to sell this deal, when the EU Parliament is openly saying that they might scupper it, anyway.
Either Cameron is lying, or the EU Parliament is lying. Either way, it's not a good look for europhiles.
"The EU Parliament" hasn't said anything. The President, Martin Schulz, is doing his job by saying they're not just patsies who will vote for any old deal, but neither he nor anyone else can say they'll definitely vote for or against some yet-to-be-defined agreement. In practice I doubt if they'll vote it down.
Well that's fine then. Cameron says the deal is watertight and legally binding, but then an old europhile comes along and says, well, no, it's not entirely binding, who knows, they probably won't vote it down but we can't be sure, hey ho. And this is presumably you doing your best to sell it.
And the REMAIN camp wonders why they aren't doing better in the polls?
No one would buy a house, or a car, or a bottle of wine, under these terms, let along base a fundamental decision of future national sovereignty on the presumed goodwill of an organisation which is openly threatening to reverse whatever we decide.
Cameron is in deep shit.
I don't care for Schultz, but that's not what he's saying. As an odious Leaver, I do think we have to keep the moral high ground here .
What's he's saying, quite rightly, is that a democratic institution cannot promise to vote one way or another until they've seen the deal as agreed, debated it and voted on it. Which is fair enough. The only issue is it makes Cameron and Hammond look like complete twats with their legally binding bollocks.
Presumably the "deal" could clear all hurdles, including EU Parliament approval, before 23rd June, or whatever later date the referendum takes place?
You're just spoiling SeanT's Tuesday tantrums with such arrant nonsense
There continues to be evidence that the race for the Republican nomination will get a lot tighter down the line as more candidates drop out. Trump leads Rubio only 46/45 in a head to head match up, with supporters of Bush (73/10), Cruz (67/26), Carson (54/34), and Kasich (50/29) all strongly preferring Rubio to Trump if those were their choices. If Rubio can make the race in South Carolina more into a choice between him and Trump he has the potential to end up with a strong second place finish. Trump has wider leads in head to heads with Bush (50/40) and Cruz (48/38).
There continues to be evidence that the race for the Republican nomination will get a lot tighter down the line as more candidates drop out. Trump leads Rubio only 46/45 in a head to head match up, with supporters of Bush (73/10), Cruz (67/26), Carson (54/34), and Kasich (50/29) all strongly preferring Rubio to Trump if those were their choices. If Rubio can make the race in South Carolina more into a choice between him and Trump he has the potential to end up with a strong second place finish. Trump has wider leads in head to heads with Bush (50/40) and Cruz (48/38).
''So, as I said, voters will just have to incorporate the uncertainties in their decision. It's a nice try from the Leave side to try to pretend that this is primarily a problem for Remain. I take my hat off to them for chutzpah, but I don't think it will wash. ''
Its 100% a false notion to think that staying IN is some kind of solid state stability alternative. The EU is in a state of total flux. It is driving at ever close union, with most members very supportive of that process. It also has terrible, and possibly insoluble economic problems, largeely due to built-in socialism. There is an enormous democratidc deficit and huge immigrant problem.
There continues to be evidence that the race for the Republican nomination will get a lot tighter down the line as more candidates drop out. Trump leads Rubio only 46/45 in a head to head match up, with supporters of Bush (73/10), Cruz (67/26), Carson (54/34), and Kasich (50/29) all strongly preferring Rubio to Trump if those were their choices. If Rubio can make the race in South Carolina more into a choice between him and Trump he has the potential to end up with a strong second place finish. Trump has wider leads in head to heads with Bush (50/40) and Cruz (48/38).
There continues to be evidence that the race for the Republican nomination will get a lot tighter down the line as more candidates drop out. Trump leads Rubio only 46/45 in a head to head match up, with supporters of Bush (73/10), Cruz (67/26), Carson (54/34), and Kasich (50/29) all strongly preferring Rubio to Trump if those were their choices. If Rubio can make the race in South Carolina more into a choice between him and Trump he has the potential to end up with a strong second place finish. Trump has wider leads in head to heads with Bush (50/40) and Cruz (48/38).
The mood is much more 'we don't want establishment' rather than 'stop Trump' and I can't see any evidence Republicans will rally round Rubio late doors to stop him. He is an empty vessel.
It makes sense to have the referendum only after every European institution who can have a say has done so so we know exactly what we are voting on and that it cannot be changed after our vote. You don't sign a contract while the contract is still being drafted, after all. Or rather, only a fool would do so. .... Better get this right rather than do a poor rushed job. That is not an unreasonable request.
You are applying real commercial logic to it Cyclefree. I believe that you have experience in the city as a lawyer. Would those who disagree with Cyclefree's statements on this please also step forward and inform us about their expertise. Mr Nabavi?
There continues to be evidence that the race for the Republican nomination will get a lot tighter down the line as more candidates drop out. Trump leads Rubio only 46/45 in a head to head match up, with supporters of Bush (73/10), Cruz (67/26), Carson (54/34), and Kasich (50/29) all strongly preferring Rubio to Trump if those were their choices. If Rubio can make the race in South Carolina more into a choice between him and Trump he has the potential to end up with a strong second place finish. Trump has wider leads in head to heads with Bush (50/40) and Cruz (48/38).
@Casino_Royale: Of course, you are right. There is no way of squaring the circle (although it would have been nice, and from my point of view might possibly have inclined me to Leave, if some effort had been made to explore the possibilities).
So, as I said, voters will just have to incorporate the uncertainties in their decision. It's a nice try from the Leave side to try to pretend that this is primarily a problem for Remain. I take my hat off to them for chutzpah, but I don't think it will wash.
Thanks. There are uncertainties either way IMHO, but if it comes down to a vote of confidence in the EU based upon what we know and have experienced so far, I know where to put my cross.
There continues to be evidence that the race for the Republican nomination will get a lot tighter down the line as more candidates drop out. Trump leads Rubio only 46/45 in a head to head match up, with supporters of Bush (73/10), Cruz (67/26), Carson (54/34), and Kasich (50/29) all strongly preferring Rubio to Trump if those were their choices. If Rubio can make the race in South Carolina more into a choice between him and Trump he has the potential to end up with a strong second place finish. Trump has wider leads in head to heads with Bush (50/40) and Cruz (48/38).
The mood is much more 'we don't want establishment' rather than 'stop Trump' and I can't see any evidence Republicans will rally round Rubio late doors to stop him. He is an empty vessel.
The main reason it probably doesn't pan out this way is that Ted Cruz stays in the race long enough that it is a 3 horse race way past Super Tuesday.
There continues to be evidence that the race for the Republican nomination will get a lot tighter down the line as more candidates drop out. Trump leads Rubio only 46/45 in a head to head match up, with supporters of Bush (73/10), Cruz (67/26), Carson (54/34), and Kasich (50/29) all strongly preferring Rubio to Trump if those were their choices. If Rubio can make the race in South Carolina more into a choice between him and Trump he has the potential to end up with a strong second place finish. Trump has wider leads in head to heads with Bush (50/40) and Cruz (48/38).
The mood is much more 'we don't want establishment' rather than 'stop Trump' and I can't see any evidence Republicans will rally round Rubio late doors to stop him. He is an empty vessel.
The polling is the evidence! I'm no longer particularly overweight Rubio, but he's a long way from out of this.
There continues to be evidence that the race for the Republican nomination will get a lot tighter down the line as more candidates drop out. Trump leads Rubio only 46/45 in a head to head match up, with supporters of Bush (73/10), Cruz (67/26), Carson (54/34), and Kasich (50/29) all strongly preferring Rubio to Trump if those were their choices. If Rubio can make the race in South Carolina more into a choice between him and Trump he has the potential to end up with a strong second place finish. Trump has wider leads in head to heads with Bush (50/40) and Cruz (48/38).
The EU is "negotiating" from a position of weakness. Why didn't Cameron pitch higher?
Greece is back in recession. Italy is barely growing. Portugal expanded but only at half the expected rate. The message could hardly be clearer: the next phase of the eurozone crisis is about to begin.
On the face of it, the performance of the eurozone economy in the final three months of 2015 looks solid if unspectacular, with growth as measured by GDP up by 0.3%.
But scratch beneath the surface and the picture looks far less rosy. ....
.... But by far the most worrying country is Greece, where a crumbling economy and the attempts to impose even more draconian austerity is leading, unsurprisingly, to violent protests on the streets.
A contraction in growth makes it even harder for Greece to achieve the already ridiculously ambitious deficit and debt reduction targets set for it by its creditors, and on past form that will lead sooner or later (sooner in this case) to a fresh financial crisis and the imposition of further austerity measures. After six months out of the headlines, Greece is coming back to the boil.
There continues to be evidence that the race for the Republican nomination will get a lot tighter down the line as more candidates drop out. Trump leads Rubio only 46/45 in a head to head match up, with supporters of Bush (73/10), Cruz (67/26), Carson (54/34), and Kasich (50/29) all strongly preferring Rubio to Trump if those were their choices. If Rubio can make the race in South Carolina more into a choice between him and Trump he has the potential to end up with a strong second place finish. Trump has wider leads in head to heads with Bush (50/40) and Cruz (48/38).
The mood is much more 'we don't want establishment' rather than 'stop Trump' and I can't see any evidence Republicans will rally round Rubio late doors to stop him. He is an empty vessel.
The polling is the evidence! I'm no longer particularly overweight Rubio, but he's a long way from out of this.
Sorry, I mean I don't think the hypothetical head to heads will translate into votes. Republicans really want an outsider this year.
I've also seen other polls with Trump/Bush/Rubio etc (posted on here yesterday) and how terrible/great/average they'd be, which i'm desperately trying to find, which I think gives a different picture.
There continues to be evidence that the race for the Republican nomination will get a lot tighter down the line as more candidates drop out. Trump leads Rubio only 46/45 in a head to head match up, with supporters of Bush (73/10), Cruz (67/26), Carson (54/34), and Kasich (50/29) all strongly preferring Rubio to Trump if those were their choices. If Rubio can make the race in South Carolina more into a choice between him and Trump he has the potential to end up with a strong second place finish. Trump has wider leads in head to heads with Bush (50/40) and Cruz (48/38).
The mood is much more 'we don't want establishment' rather than 'stop Trump' and I can't see any evidence Republicans will rally round Rubio late doors to stop him. He is an empty vessel.
The main reason it probably doesn't pan out this way is that Ted Cruz stays in the race long enough that it is a 3 horse race way past Super Tuesday.
That too. All the while The Donald amasses a large delegate lead.
At some point Trump really is going to have to try tacking back a bit to the centre. God knows how.
There continues to be evidence that the race for the Republican nomination will get a lot tighter down the line as more candidates drop out. Trump leads Rubio only 46/45 in a head to head match up, with supporters of Bush (73/10), Cruz (67/26), Carson (54/34), and Kasich (50/29) all strongly preferring Rubio to Trump if those were their choices. If Rubio can make the race in South Carolina more into a choice between him and Trump he has the potential to end up with a strong second place finish. Trump has wider leads in head to heads with Bush (50/40) and Cruz (48/38).
The mood is much more 'we don't want establishment' rather than 'stop Trump' and I can't see any evidence Republicans will rally round Rubio late doors to stop him. He is an empty vessel.
The main reason it probably doesn't pan out this way is that Ted Cruz stays in the race long enough that it is a 3 horse race way past Super Tuesday.
That too. All the while The Donald amasses a large delegate lead.
At some point Trump really is going to have to try tacking back a bit to the centre. God knows how.
He trashed dubya in South Carolina, and even offered up a (limited) defence of Planned Parenthood !
Those weren't GOP base moves. His healthcare and foreign policy sound plenty centrist enough - his "home office" policy is the populist right wing bit.
There continues to be evidence that the race for the Republican nomination will get a lot tighter down the line as more candidates drop out. Trump leads Rubio only 46/45 in a head to head match up, with supporters of Bush (73/10), Cruz (67/26), Carson (54/34), and Kasich (50/29) all strongly preferring Rubio to Trump if those were their choices. If Rubio can make the race in South Carolina more into a choice between him and Trump he has the potential to end up with a strong second place finish. Trump has wider leads in head to heads with Bush (50/40) and Cruz (48/38).
The mood is much more 'we don't want establishment' rather than 'stop Trump' and I can't see any evidence Republicans will rally round Rubio late doors to stop him. He is an empty vessel.
The main reason it probably doesn't pan out this way is that Ted Cruz stays in the race long enough that it is a 3 horse race way past Super Tuesday.
That too. All the while The Donald amasses a large delegate lead.
At some point Trump really is going to have to try tacking back a bit to the centre. God knows how.
He trashed dubya in South Carolina, and even offered up a (limited) defence of planned parenthood !
Can someone explain to me how Cameron even BEGINS to sell this deal, when the EU Parliament is openly saying that they might scupper it, anyway.
Either Cameron is lying, or the EU Parliament is lying. Either way, it's not a good look for europhiles.
"The EU Parliament" hasn't said anything. The President, Martin Schulz, is doing his job by saying they're not just patsies who will vote for any old deal, but neither he nor anyone else can say they'll definitely vote for or against some yet-to-be-defined agreement. In practice I doubt if they'll vote it down.
Well that's fine then. Cameron says the deal is watertight and legally binding, but then an old europhile comes along and says, well, no, it's not entirely binding, who knows, they probably won't vote it down but we can't be sure, hey ho. And this is presumably you doing your best to sell it.
And the REMAIN camp wonders why they aren't doing better in the polls?
No one would buy a house, or a car, or a bottle of wine, under these terms, let along base a fundamental decision of future national sovereignty on the presumed goodwill of an organisation which is openly threatening to reverse whatever we decide.
Cameron is in deep shit.
I don't care for Schultz, but that's not what he's saying. As an odious Leaver, I do think we have to keep the moral high ground here .
What's he's saying, quite rightly, is that a democratic institution cannot promise to vote one way or another until they've seen the deal as agreed, debated it and voted on it. Which is fair enough. The only issue is it makes Cameron and Hammond look like complete twats with their legally binding bollocks.
Presumably the "deal" could clear all hurdles, including EU Parliament approval, before 23rd June, or whatever later date the referendum takes place?
You're just spoiling SeanT's Tuesday tantrums with such arrant nonsense
Actually, having read Mr. Shultz's comments, I think Mr. Sykes is asking for the impossible. The European Parliament will only get a say after a remain vote, but a say they will get and they could if, they so wish, not pass the necessary legislation. So although the 28 countries might agree to a deal, the parliament could reject it but only after the UK electorate has agreed to to it.
If that were to happen I think the Conservative Party might well implode, Cameron would almost certainly be ousted in very short order. However, as from start to finish, he has completely misplayed every hand in the EU rubber, being sacked in ignominy is no more than he deserves.
I'd think that would be obvious and would most likely apply even were we to Leave. It is a bog standard grandfathering clause for law changes.
That would be like saying because child benefit was open to everyone when I started claiming, it should still open to me now that I earn over the threshold. Those eligible for benefits change all the time, for various reasons and are not grandfathered.
The expectation is that the government, the Labour party, the Lib Dems, the nationalists and even the Greens are going to stand up and back Remain. The expectation is that a majority of the City and business will do likewise. On the media while some of the shoutier papers will be for Out the BBC will undoubtedly be very much for In.
Very unusually, indeed uniquely, this came up at lunch today. Apart from me every other person at the table found the idea that we might vote for Leave simply bewildering. Incomprehensible even. Having spent time on here where Leave tends to dominate it was a strange but not unique experience. I had the same experience recently at dinner with a generally left of centre group of friends. Once again there was a reluctance to accept this was even a possibility.
With his truly lousy, indeed embarrassing, renegotiation Cameron has made the job of Remain harder and damaged his own credibility to boot. Notwithstanding that I fear the odds are rational and Remain remains the most likely winner.
Why on earth are we giving child allowances to Bulgarian children living in Bulgaria..
Because we are in the EU.
Genuine question. Does any other EU country allow benefits to be paid for things outside the home country like we do with CB?
To be honest, I think that the main problem here is our non-contributory welfare system as much as EU law. EU law forbids discrimination between EU citizens. So if we pay child benefit to the children of British citizens, no matter where the children live, then we have to do the same for Bulgarian and Italian children if their parents are living in the UK.
If child benefit was dependant on levels of contributions, then this would be less of an issue because those who had just turned up would not have made the levels of contributions necessary to get the payments. And once they had there would be little reason to object to the payments.
We could make the changes to our system here but that would involve telling British citizens who had not contributed that they could not get welfare until they did, which might not prove popular.
Of course, if you want the ability to discriminate in favour of your citizens (a fairly key characteristic of the nation state - at least until recently) then being in the EU is not for you. That's where the clash with the EU's founding principle lies.
The EU is intended to move on from nation states whereas we in Britain fundamentally don't see the need to. The British nation state has been pretty successful in history. The German nation state rather less so. Its only period of prolonged success without war has been as part of the EU and its predecessor organisations.
Two very different approaches and perspectives. It is not an insult to the other to say that it is hard to see how these can easily be reconciled in one supra-national organisation.
Since the Legal Counsel of the European Council has given a formal opinion that the deal will be legally binding, options 1, 3 and 4 seem the most likely.
Bit of a shame that the former UK Judge on the ECJ came out today and said this was nonsense.
also
Promises made to Denmark in 1992 were broken. EU leaders pledged that EU citizenship would “not in any way take the place of national citizenship”. Less than a decade later, the ECJ declared that EU citizenship would “be the fundamental status of nationals of the Member States”. That claim has now been repeated by EU courts on 80 occasions, most recently in a case concerning the government’s faltering attempts to deport Abu Hamza’s daughter-in-law.
I'd think that would be obvious and would most likely apply even were we to Leave. It is a bog standard grandfathering clause for law changes.
Grandfathering does happen in Directives and elsewhere. But surely the point of the negotiation was to change this: to say that this was not acceptable. Just because it has happened until now is no reason why it should continue. Setting aside EU law, what is the commercial, political, moral or other reason why should taxpayers in Britain should pay child benefit to children living in another EU member country away from their parents? Why?
The expectation is that the government, the Labour party, the Lib Dems, the nationalists and even the Greens are going to stand up and back Remain. The expectation is that a majority of the City and business will do likewise. On the media while some of the shoutier papers will be for Out the BBC will undoubtedly be very much for In.
Surely you aren't suggesting our impartial and always neutral state broadcaster might take sides on the issue of the EU referendum.
The expectation is that the government, the Labour party, the Lib Dems, the nationalists and even the Greens are going to stand up and back Remain. The expectation is that a majority of the City and business will do likewise. On the media while some of the shoutier papers will be for Out the BBC will undoubtedly be very much for In.
Very unusually, indeed uniquely, this came up at lunch today. Apart from me every other person at the table found the idea that we might vote for Leave simply bewildering. Incomprehensible even. Having spent time on here where Leave tends to dominate it was a strange but not unique experience. I had the same experience recently at dinner with a generally left of centre group of friends. Once again there was a reluctance to accept this was even a possibility.
With his truly lousy, indeed embarrassing, renegotiation Cameron has made the job of Remain harder and damaged his own credibility to boot. Notwithstanding that I fear the odds are rational and Remain remains the most likely winner.
Most people are not 'at lunch'.....nor neither are they 'at dinner'.
'Since the Legal Counsel of the European Council has given a formal opinion that the deal will be legally binding, options 1, 3 and 4 seem the most likely.'
"For centuries, Britain has been an outward looking nation. Hemmed in by sea, we have always sought to explore what is beyond the horizon. That sense of mission and curiosity is something that I know continues to drive our economy, our cultural and educational exports and our Armed Forces and Diplomatic Service. And wherever we go, we have a long and proud tradition of seeking out allies and partners."
I think he's advocating that we reestablish the Empire!
That's clearly been choreographed by the Government. Trying to tickle the tummies of Shire Tory loyalists who go all gooey for HM.
Very unwise to bring the Royal Family into an issue that splits the country right down the middle.
It brings out my inner Republican (which I usually never have unless I hear Charles speak)
Does the Duke even have the vote? If he doesn't he really shouldn't be opining on political matters? Also, you do not have to be in an organisation to co-operate with it or its members.
I co-operate with a lot of people, some of them quite closely. I don't also feel the need to sleep with them.
Mr. Royale, not impressed by that sort of thing with the royals either.
The royals really shouldn't be making political comments one way or the other, especially on something so contentious. They are supposed to be above politics.
There continues to be evidence that the race for the Republican nomination will get a lot tighter down the line as more candidates drop out. Trump leads Rubio only 46/45 in a head to head match up, with supporters of Bush (73/10), Cruz (67/26), Carson (54/34), and Kasich (50/29) all strongly preferring Rubio to Trump if those were their choices. If Rubio can make the race in South Carolina more into a choice between him and Trump he has the potential to end up with a strong second place finish. Trump has wider leads in head to heads with Bush (50/40) and Cruz (48/38).
The mood is much more 'we don't want establishment' rather than 'stop Trump' and I can't see any evidence Republicans will rally round Rubio late doors to stop him. He is an empty vessel.
The main reason it probably doesn't pan out this way is that Ted Cruz stays in the race long enough that it is a 3 horse race way past Super Tuesday.
That too. All the while The Donald amasses a large delegate lead.
At some point Trump really is going to have to try tacking back a bit to the centre. God knows how.
Immigration apart, Trump is the most left-wing candidate on the Republican side.
Very unusually, indeed uniquely, this came up at lunch today. Apart from me every other person at the table found the idea that we might vote for Leave simply bewildering. Incomprehensible even. Having spent time on here where Leave tends to dominate it was a strange but not unique experience.
Indeed. And, once again, I got a ridiculous amount of flak a few nights ago for pointing out that the anti-Cameron, anti-EU groupthink here is highly misleading.
The expectation is that the government, the Labour party, the Lib Dems, the nationalists and even the Greens are going to stand up and back Remain. The expectation is that a majority of the City and business will do likewise. On the media while some of the shoutier papers will be for Out the BBC will undoubtedly be very much for In.
Very unusually, indeed uniquely, this came up at lunch today. Apart from me every other person at the table found the idea that we might vote for Leave simply bewildering. Incomprehensible even. Having spent time on here where Leave tends to dominate it was a strange but not unique experience. I had the same experience recently at dinner with a generally left of centre group of friends. Once again there was a reluctance to accept this was even a possibility.
With his truly lousy, indeed embarrassing, renegotiation Cameron has made the job of Remain harder and damaged his own credibility to boot. Notwithstanding that I fear the odds are rational and Remain remains the most likely winner.
Most people are not 'at lunch'.....nor neither are they 'at dinner'.
Well, not at this time of day, no. Unless you are with Alan Yentob of course.
Because he and his friends don't want any real change, just a form of words they can use to try to win the referendum.
Cameron trusted a number of people to advise him what would get accepted. They put that in the manifesto. Unfortunately it turns out that these brilliant Cameron advisors and FO folk either did not have the right influence or had little clue as to how to get things done. Since people such as Liddington have been euro lovers toiling on this for years you may have a judgement as to the level of their competence.
The expectation is that the government, the Labour party, the Lib Dems, the nationalists and even the Greens are going to stand up and back Remain. The expectation is that a majority of the City and business will do likewise. On the media while some of the shoutier papers will be for Out the BBC will undoubtedly be very much for In.
Very unusually, indeed uniquely, this came up at lunch today. Apart from me every other person at the table found the idea that we might vote for Leave simply bewildering. Incomprehensible even. Having spent time on here where Leave tends to dominate it was a strange but not unique experience. I had the same experience recently at dinner with a generally left of centre group of friends. Once again there was a reluctance to accept this was even a possibility.
With his truly lousy, indeed embarrassing, renegotiation Cameron has made the job of Remain harder and damaged his own credibility to boot. Notwithstanding that I fear the odds are rational and Remain remains the most likely winner.
I tend to agree. I think there are two interesting questions: (1) how big will the Leave vote be and where will it be found. That could affect both EU and UK politics in ways we might not yet anticipate. (2) Could there be an upset, similar to what happened in France over the EU Constitution (or was it Nice?) where the "Non" side surprised everyone?
There is a mood to give the establishment a kicking: Trump, Sanders, Corbyn etc. In some ways, the best thing for the EU and the political establishment here - including all those you mention - would be an almighty kick up the backside from a UK "No" Vote. They really all need their arses slapped and hard, they really do.
Very unusually, indeed uniquely, this came up at lunch today. Apart from me every other person at the table found the idea that we might vote for Leave simply bewildering. Incomprehensible even. Having spent time on here where Leave tends to dominate it was a strange but not unique experience.
Indeed. And, once again, I got a ridiculous amount of flak a few nights ago for pointing out that the anti-Cameron, anti-EU groupthink here is highly misleading.
I am not sure friends of upper middle class lawyers and businessmen of a certain age are completely representative of the British public. I believe some even drive white vans.
Can someone explain to me how Cameron even BEGINS to sell this deal, when the EU Parliament is openly saying that they might scupper it, anyway. Either Cameron is lying, or the EU Parliament is lying. Either way, it's not a good look for europhiles.
The President, Martin Schulz, is doing his job by saying they're not just patsies who will vote for any old deal, but neither he nor anyone else can say they'll definitely vote for or against some yet-to-be-defined agreement. In practice I doubt if they'll vote it down.
Well that's fine then. Cameron says the deal is watertight and legally binding, but then an old europhile comes along and says, well, no, it's not entirely binding, who knows... And the REMAIN camp wonders why they aren't doing better in the polls? No one would buy a house, or a car, or a bottle of wine, under these terms, let along base a fundamental decision of future national sovereignty on the presumed goodwill of an organisation which is openly threatening to reverse whatever we decide. Cameron is in deep shit.
don't care for Schultz, but that's not what he's saying. As an odious Leaver, I do think we have to keep the moral high ground here .
What's he's saying, quite rightly, is that a democratic institution cannot promise to vote one way or another until they've seen the deal as agreed, debated it and voted on it. Which is fair enough. The only issue is it makes Cameron and Hammond look like complete twats with their legally binding bollocks.
Presumably the "deal" could clear all hurdles, including EU Parliament approval, before 23rd June, or whatever later date the referendum takes place?
You're just spoiling SeanT's Tuesday tantrums with such arrant nonsense
Actually, having read Mr. Shultz's comments, I think Mr. Sykes is asking for the impossible. The European Parliament will only get a say after a remain vote, but a say they will get and they could if, they so wish, not pass the necessary legislation. So although the 28 countries might agree to a deal, the parliament could reject it but only after the UK electorate has agreed to to it. If that were to happen I think the Conservative Party might well implode, Cameron would almost certainly be ousted in very short order. However, as from start to finish, he has completely misplayed every hand in the EU rubber, being sacked in ignominy is no more than he deserves.
Cameron and his people also completely misread the process of appointing Juncker.
Because he and his friends don't want any real change, just a form of words they can use to try to win the referendum.
Cameron trusted a number of people to advise him what would get accepted. They put that in the manifesto. Unfortunately it turns out that these brilliant Cameron advisors and FO folk either did not have the right influence or had little clue as to how to get things done. Since people such as Liddington have been euro lovers toiling on this for years you may have a judgement as to the level of their competence.
I mean you only have to read the smallest number of EU directives to understand instantly that the EU is a supertanker that is both comfortable with its direction, and not going to change because a stowaway pops up and asks if it could possibly stop off at Margate rather than cross the Atlantic because that's what happens every Summer holidays.
Because he and his friends don't want any real change, just a form of words they can use to try to win the referendum.
Cameron trusted a number of people to advise him what would get accepted. They put that in the manifesto. Unfortunately it turns out that these brilliant Cameron advisors and FO folk either did not have the right influence or had little clue as to how to get things done. Since people such as Liddington have been euro lovers toiling on this for years you may have a judgement as to the level of their competence.
I mean you only have to read the smallest number of EU directives to understand instantly that the EU is a supertanker that is both comfortable with its direction, and not going to change because a stowaway pops up and asks if it could possibly stop off at Margate rather than cross the Atlantic because that's what happens every Summer holidays.
They did not learn anything from the Juncker failure.
Very unusually, indeed uniquely, this came up at lunch today. Apart from me every other person at the table found the idea that we might vote for Leave simply bewildering. Incomprehensible even. Having spent time on here where Leave tends to dominate it was a strange but not unique experience.
Indeed. And, once again, I got a ridiculous amount of flak a few nights ago for pointing out that the anti-Cameron, anti-EU groupthink here is highly misleading.
Equally misleading though, is the groupthink of the people that David L had lunch and dinner with.
Saying that one thinks Leave is wrong is fine. Saying that one finds the idea of a Leave vote incomprehensible suggests that one is living in a bubble.
The expectation is that the government, the Labour party, the Lib Dems, the nationalists and even the Greens are going to stand up and back Remain. The expectation is that a majority of the City and business will do likewise. On the media while some of the shoutier papers will be for Out the BBC will undoubtedly be very much for In.
Surely you aren't suggesting our impartial and always neutral state broadcaster might take sides on the issue of the EU referendum.
The next six months are going to be very busy for broadcast regulators. Both sides will be making hundreds of complaints - with and without merit, valid and spurious. Every program will be under scrutiny for the perception of bias, down to soap operas and comedy shows.
Very unusually, indeed uniquely, this came up at lunch today. Apart from me every other person at the table found the idea that we might vote for Leave simply bewildering. Incomprehensible even. Having spent time on here where Leave tends to dominate it was a strange but not unique experience.
Indeed. And, once again, I got a ridiculous amount of flak a few nights ago for pointing out that the anti-Cameron, anti-EU groupthink here is highly misleading.
Since even most of those on here who are toying with Leave think Remain will win, they seem to recognise perfectly well that their own wishes are not in tune with the majority.
I am not sure friends of upper middle class lawyers and businessmen of a certain age are completely representative of the British public. I believe some even drive white vans.
Yes, and they've got different concerns again. Probably the question of whether financial regulation of the City will be dominated by the Eurozone isn't high amongst their immediate worries (although I'd argue it should be).
WASHINGTON—Moving quickly to begin the process of filling the unexpected vacancy on the Supreme Court bench, President Obama spent much of the weekend compiling a shortlist of gay, transsexual abortion doctors to replace the late Antonin Scalia, White House sources confirmed Monday.
May I volunteer to be the first to spank her silly bottom? Something her mother should have done years ago.
Jesus: if only UKIP would STFU. Emma T is entitled to her view. And to express it. Why does he have to play the stereotype of the sort of man who thinks women who express a view a man disagrees with are silly children who should be punished?
Note to @CasinoRoyale (re your question on last night's thread): If you want to know why women may find Leave unattractive here is one answer.
The expectation is that the government, the Labour party, the Lib Dems, the nationalists and even the Greens are going to stand up and back Remain. The expectation is that a majority of the City and business will do likewise. On the media while some of the shoutier papers will be for Out the BBC will undoubtedly be very much for In.
Very unusually, indeed uniquely, this came up at lunch today. Apart from me every other person at the table found the idea that we might vote for Leave simply bewildering. Incomprehensible even. Having spent time on here where Leave tends to dominate it was a strange but not unique experience. I had the same experience recently at dinner with a generally left of centre group of friends. Once again there was a reluctance to accept this was even a possibility.
With his truly lousy, indeed embarrassing, renegotiation Cameron has made the job of Remain harder and damaged his own credibility to boot. Notwithstanding that I fear the odds are rational and Remain remains the most likely winner.
I tend to agree. I think there are two interesting questions: (1) how big will the Leave vote be and where will it be found. That could affect both EU and UK politics in ways we might not yet anticipate. (2) Could there be an upset, similar to what happened in France over the EU Constitution (or was it Nice?) where the "Non" side surprised everyone?
There is a mood to give the establishment a kicking: Trump, Sanders, Corbyn etc. In some ways, the best thing for the EU and the political establishment here - including all those you mention - would be an almighty kick up the backside from a UK "No" Vote. They really all need their arses slapped and hard, they really do.
My best guess is that Leave will win about 45% of the vote.
I think most voters over 50, and most working class voters will vote Leave. I think that Conservative voters will vote about 50-55% for Leave, and UKIP voters will vote about 90% for Leave. About 25-30% of the rest will vote Leave.
I think Remain will carry Scotland by a big margin, Greater London, Surrey, Berkshire, Hertfordshire, all the big cities and Metropolitan boroughs, Merseyside, Welsh-speaking Wales, Northern Ireland, and Leave will carry everywhere else.
Iain Martin on what went wrong with Cameron's team. "But the diplomatic bubble can be a dangerously seductive environment, especially when the inhabitants of Downing Street – the Tory leadership ......are used to people around them agreeing that they are brilliant and their deal all makes sense. This makes it difficult for those involved to stand back and say: hold on, how did this end up hinging on child benefit indexation for new immigrants ..... that do nothing to restore sovereignty or border control? Think about it. Number 10 has become hypnotised by its own drawn out process and cannot see how ridiculous its deal looks outside the gates of Downing Street..... ." http://capx.co/why-david-cameron-got-it-so-wrong-on-renegotiation/
Chelsea for the Champions League @ 25/1 e-w (1/2 1-2)
Tough draw against PSG, but they are now playing much more like the side they were supposed to be and can concentrate more-or-less solely on the cups - this one being their only route back in the CL again next year.
It's value as per betfair since they're trading 24-26 there (so the win part is flat) and they must logically be shorter than 25/2 to reach the final, since they'll be fairly substantial underdogs the vast majority of the time when they get there.
May I volunteer to be the first to spank her silly bottom? Something her mother should have done years ago.
Jesus: if only UKIP would STFU. Emma T is entitled to her view. And to express it. Why does he have to play the stereotype of the sort of man who thinks women who express a view a man disagrees with are silly children who should be punished?
Note to @CasinoRoyale (re your question on last night's thread): If you want to know why women may find Leave unattractive here is one answer.
May I volunteer to be the first to spank her silly bottom? Something her mother should have done years ago.
Jesus: if only UKIP would STFU. Emma T is entitled to her view. And to express it. Why does he have to play the stereotype of the sort of man who thinks women who express a view a man disagrees with are silly children who should be punished?
Note to @CasinoRoyale (re your question on last night's thread): If you want to know why women may find Leave unattractive here is one answer.
Very unusually, indeed uniquely, this came up at lunch today. Apart from me every other person at the table found the idea that we might vote for Leave simply bewildering. Incomprehensible even. Having spent time on here where Leave tends to dominate it was a strange but not unique experience.
Indeed. And, once again, I got a ridiculous amount of flak a few nights ago for pointing out that the anti-Cameron, anti-EU groupthink here is highly misleading.
Equally misleading though, is the groupthink of the people that David L had lunch and dinner with.
Saying that one thinks Leave is wrong is fine. Saying that one finds the idea of a Leave vote incomprehensible suggests that one is living in a bubble.
Well, quite. For one thing, all the polls now show that it is very close. Some say that LEAVE is winning. To believe that LEAVING is an exotic impossibility just reveals the ignorance of the believer.
The same mindset prevailed before indyref, of course. Matthew Parris was prattling on about the absurd impossibility of a YES vote, even after the polls had decisively narrowed. Indeed even after the polls had narrowed he maintained they were showing a very easy NO win. He simply hadn't looked at the data.
Looking at the opinion polls is hardly rocket science.
The expectation is that the government, the Labour party, the Lib Dems, the nationalists and even the Greens are going to stand up and back Remain. The expectation is that a majority of the City and business will do likewise. On the media while some of the shoutier papers will be for Out the BBC will undoubtedly be very much for In.
Very unusually, indeed uniquely, this came up at lunch today. Apart from me every other person at the table found the idea that we might vote for Leave simply bewildering. Incomprehensible even. Having spent time on here where Leave tends to dominate it was a strange but not unique experience. I had the same experience recently at dinner with a generally left of centre group of friends. Once again there was a reluctance to accept this was even a possibility.
With his truly lousy, indeed embarrassing, renegotiation Cameron has made the job of Remain harder and damaged his own credibility to boot. Notwithstanding that I fear the odds are rational and Remain remains the most likely winner.
I tend to agree. I think there are two interesting questions: (1) how big will the Leave vote be and where will it be found. That could affect both EU and UK politics in ways we might not yet anticipate. (2) Could there be an upset, similar to what happened in France over the EU Constitution (or was it Nice?) where the "Non" side surprised everyone?
There is a mood to give the establishment a kicking: Trump, Sanders, Corbyn etc. In some ways, the best thing for the EU and the political establishment here - including all those you mention - would be an almighty kick up the backside from a UK "No" Vote. They really all need their arses slapped and hard, they really do.
I agree. The degree of smug arrogance that could have resulted in Cameron trying to sell his current renegotiation is frankly stupefying. I still find it incredible that such a clever man and successful politician could have made such a misjudgement. I really don't know how he redeems it now. Even if he did produce a rabbit out of the hat it would have an air of desperation, not triumph.
It is tragic that Leave is such an incoherent, leaderless mob with no clear alternative in mind. They should have been a contender.
Chelsea for the Champions League @ 25/1 e-w (1/2 1-2)
Tough draw against PSG, but they are now playing much more like the side they were supposed to be.
You mean they beat Newcastle 5-1...
Unbeaten since Hiddink took over (lots of draws, mind). Won 1-0 away at the champions-elect.
Beating Arsenal is what Chelsea do - I wouldn't read too much into it. That said, they might beat PSG and if the draw fell kindly they might make the final.
May I volunteer to be the first to spank her silly bottom? Something her mother should have done years ago.
Jesus: if only UKIP would STFU. Emma T is entitled to her view. And to express it. Why does he have to play the stereotype of the sort of man who thinks women who express a view a man disagrees with are silly children who should be punished?
Note to @CasinoRoyale (re your question on last night's thread): If you want to know why women may find Leave unattractive here is one answer.
I actually have my head in my hands right now.
Why on Earth are both sides STILL doing their level best to alienate floating voters?
Today we have a UKIP mysoginist on one side and Gordon Brown on the other. The PM also needs to get everyone involved in the EU and foreign politicians to STFU once the referendum is announced, there is absolutely nothing that Junker or Shulz can say that will draw people to the Remain camp in the closing weeks.
May I volunteer to be the first to spank her silly bottom? Something her mother should have done years ago.
Jesus: if only UKIP would STFU. Emma T is entitled to her view. And to express it. Why does he have to play the stereotype of the sort of man who thinks women who express a view a man disagrees with are silly children who should be punished?
Note to @CasinoRoyale (re your question on last night's thread): If you want to know why women may find Leave unattractive here is one answer.
Fortunately, I don't think he's in UKIP anymore.
Indeed - the former MEP Godfrey Bloom, quit UKIP because it was too "politically correct".
On topic, is the lack of movement because every serious political punter is balls deep in the US Presidential/Primary markets.
That's my reasoning for cashing out of the EUREF market. I'm not sure it's possible to say the US race has distorted the odds though. The basic problem is;
Even if you judge the EUREF odds are out of line - at best, it's still only backing what you think is a 6/4 shot at 2/1 and will settle in 4 months' time.
Most serious punters would rather invest their bankroll in the football games between now and June if they think they've got even a 1% edge over the market. It still makes more sense when compounded.
I dunno what my edge is on the POTUS markets, but I'm very very green (if I can be arsed, I'll calculate it on settlement) - and the market distorts and corrects regularly.
Comments
There continues to be evidence that the race for the Republican nomination will get a lot tighter down the line as more candidates drop out. Trump leads Rubio only 46/45 in a head to head match up, with supporters of Bush (73/10), Cruz (67/26), Carson (54/34), and Kasich (50/29) all strongly preferring Rubio to Trump if those were their choices. If Rubio can make the race in South Carolina more into a choice between him and Trump he has the potential to end up with a strong second place finish. Trump has wider leads in head to heads with Bush (50/40) and Cruz (48/38).
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2016/02/trump-clinton-still-have-big-sc-leads.html
And then presented them to the electorate saying: You Choose.
It's a view, but only one that holds water in an ideal unbiased world, and, of course, could easily be gamed.
For one thing, staying in yokes us to the EUs economic future and it looks awful.
So, as I said, voters will just have to incorporate the uncertainties in their decision. It's a nice try from the Leave side to try to pretend that this is primarily a problem for Remain. I take my hat off to them for chutzpah, but I don't think it will wash.
Because we are in the EU.
We need to know the details of the deal in its final approved state before we vote. Based on what I have learnt so far, it does not achieve much. But whether it's trivial or far-reaching or something in between it needs to be the final deal not an interim draft.
And of course I care if the final deal is trivial since that will be a factor - though not the only one - in my vote. Why would you think otherwise? I put down late yesterday evening some thoughts on what things in a deal might shift me more to Remain.
Clinton -518.56
Rubio +634.31
Do you think I could collapse that down to near enough zero if Rubio was chosen ?
If Sanders does get chosen I suspect the market may well have him as odds against for POTUS mind...
Its 100% a false notion to think that staying IN is some kind of solid state stability alternative. The EU is in a state of total flux. It is driving at ever close union, with most members very supportive of that process. It also has terrible, and possibly insoluble economic problems, largeely due to built-in socialism. There is an enormous democratidc deficit and huge immigrant problem.
£237 waiting to back him at 27 in the Dem market.
The mood is much more 'we don't want establishment' rather than 'stop Trump' and I can't see any evidence Republicans will rally round Rubio late doors to stop him. He is an empty vessel.
Sorry you missed the 800.0.
Does any other EU country allow benefits to be paid for things outside the home country like we do with CB?
Greece is back in recession. Italy is barely growing. Portugal expanded but only at half the expected rate. The message could hardly be clearer: the next phase of the eurozone crisis is about to begin.
On the face of it, the performance of the eurozone economy in the final three months of 2015 looks solid if unspectacular, with growth as measured by GDP up by 0.3%.
But scratch beneath the surface and the picture looks far less rosy. ....
....
But by far the most worrying country is Greece, where a crumbling economy and the attempts to impose even more draconian austerity is leading, unsurprisingly, to violent protests on the streets.
A contraction in growth makes it even harder for Greece to achieve the already ridiculously ambitious deficit and debt reduction targets set for it by its creditors, and on past form that will lead sooner or later (sooner in this case) to a fresh financial crisis and the imposition of further austerity measures. After six months out of the headlines, Greece is coming back to the boil.
http://www.hl.co.uk/news/2016/2/12/the-eurozone-crisis-is-back-on-the-boil
I've also seen other polls with Trump/Bush/Rubio etc (posted on here yesterday) and how terrible/great/average they'd be, which i'm desperately trying to find, which I think gives a different picture.
What were the markets saying about the Scottish vote, and the General Election?
At some point Trump really is going to have to try tacking back a bit to the centre. God knows how.
Because he and his friends don't want any real change, just a form of words they can use to try to win the referendum.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/eureferendum/12159067/David-Cameron-in-last-ditch-EU-referendum-talks-to-secure-deal-before-Friday-live.html
Especially as it's for remain
Those weren't GOP base moves. His healthcare and foreign policy sound plenty centrist enough - his "home office" policy is the populist right wing bit.
If that were to happen I think the Conservative Party might well implode, Cameron would almost certainly be ousted in very short order. However, as from start to finish, he has completely misplayed every hand in the EU rubber, being sacked in ignominy is no more than he deserves.
Very unusually, indeed uniquely, this came up at lunch today. Apart from me every other person at the table found the idea that we might vote for Leave simply bewildering. Incomprehensible even. Having spent time on here where Leave tends to dominate it was a strange but not unique experience. I had the same experience recently at dinner with a generally left of centre group of friends. Once again there was a reluctance to accept this was even a possibility.
With his truly lousy, indeed embarrassing, renegotiation Cameron has made the job of Remain harder and damaged his own credibility to boot. Notwithstanding that I fear the odds are rational and Remain remains the most likely winner.
If child benefit was dependant on levels of contributions, then this would be less of an issue because those who had just turned up would not have made the levels of contributions necessary to get the payments. And once they had there would be little reason to object to the payments.
We could make the changes to our system here but that would involve telling British citizens who had not contributed that they could not get welfare until they did, which might not prove popular.
Of course, if you want the ability to discriminate in favour of your citizens (a fairly key characteristic of the nation state - at least until recently) then being in the EU is not for you. That's where the clash with the EU's founding principle lies.
The EU is intended to move on from nation states whereas we in Britain fundamentally don't see the need to. The British nation state has been pretty successful in history. The German nation state rather less so. Its only period of prolonged success without war has been as part of the EU and its predecessor organisations.
Two very different approaches and perspectives. It is not an insult to the other to say that it is hard to see how these can easily be reconciled in one supra-national organisation.
also Legally binding my ass.
Very unwise to bring the Royal Family into an issue that splits the country right down the middle.
It brings out my inner Republican (which I usually never have unless I hear Charles speak)
So naive, just embarrassing.
"For centuries, Britain has been an outward looking nation. Hemmed in by sea, we have always sought to explore what is beyond the horizon. That sense of mission and curiosity is something that I know continues to drive our economy, our cultural and educational exports and our Armed Forces and Diplomatic Service. And wherever we go, we have a long and proud tradition of seeking out allies and partners."
I think he's advocating that we reestablish the Empire!
I co-operate with a lot of people, some of them quite closely. I don't also feel the need to sleep with them.
I await with trepidation similar speeches by Trudeau, Obama, and Merkel.
She is ghastly, no doubt, but her level of pay is market-dependent.
There is a mood to give the establishment a kicking: Trump, Sanders, Corbyn etc. In some ways, the best thing for the EU and the political establishment here - including all those you mention - would be an almighty kick up the backside from a UK "No" Vote. They really all need their arses slapped and hard, they really do.
Saying that one thinks Leave is wrong is fine. Saying that one finds the idea of a Leave vote incomprehensible suggests that one is living in a bubble.
Both sides will be making hundreds of complaints - with and without merit, valid and spurious. Every program will be under scrutiny for the perception of bias, down to soap operas and comedy shows.
May I volunteer to be the first to spank her silly bottom?
Something her mother should have done years ago.
http://www.theonion.com/article/obama-compiles-shortlist-gay-transsexual-abortion--52361
Note to @CasinoRoyale (re your question on last night's thread): If you want to know why women may find Leave unattractive here is one answer.
I think most voters over 50, and most working class voters will vote Leave. I think that Conservative voters will vote about 50-55% for Leave, and UKIP voters will vote about 90% for Leave. About 25-30% of the rest will vote Leave.
I think Remain will carry Scotland by a big margin, Greater London, Surrey, Berkshire, Hertfordshire, all the big cities and Metropolitan boroughs, Merseyside, Welsh-speaking Wales, Northern Ireland, and Leave will carry everywhere else.
"But the diplomatic bubble can be a dangerously seductive environment, especially when the inhabitants of Downing Street – the Tory leadership ......are used to people around them agreeing that they are brilliant and their deal all makes sense. This makes it difficult for those involved to stand back and say: hold on, how did this end up hinging on child benefit indexation for new immigrants ..... that do nothing to restore sovereignty or border control? Think about it. Number 10 has become hypnotised by its own drawn out process and cannot see how ridiculous its deal looks outside the gates of Downing Street..... ."
http://capx.co/why-david-cameron-got-it-so-wrong-on-renegotiation/
Chelsea for the Champions League @ 25/1 e-w (1/2 1-2)
Tough draw against PSG, but they are now playing much more like the side they were supposed to be and can concentrate more-or-less solely on the cups - this one being their only route back in the CL again next year.
It's value as per betfair since they're trading 24-26 there (so the win part is flat) and they must logically be shorter than 25/2 to reach the final, since they'll be fairly substantial underdogs the vast majority of the time when they get there.
It is tragic that Leave is such an incoherent, leaderless mob with no clear alternative in mind. They should have been a contender.
Today we have a UKIP mysoginist on one side and Gordon Brown on the other. The PM also needs to get everyone involved in the EU and foreign politicians to STFU once the referendum is announced, there is absolutely nothing that Junker or Shulz can say that will draw people to the Remain camp in the closing weeks.
Former UN Secretary-General Boutros Boutros-Ghali dies
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/12159902/Former-UN-Secretary-General-Boutros-Boutros-Ghali-dies.html?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter
Even if you judge the EUREF odds are out of line - at best, it's still only backing what you think is a 6/4 shot at 2/1 and will settle in 4 months' time.
Most serious punters would rather invest their bankroll in the football games between now and June if they think they've got even a 1% edge over the market. It still makes more sense when compounded.
I dunno what my edge is on the POTUS markets, but I'm very very green (if I can be arsed, I'll calculate it on settlement) - and the market distorts and corrects regularly.
Which is very helpful.
Oh, and there's decent liquidity.