I agree. The degree of smug arrogance that could have resulted in Cameron trying to sell his current renegotiation is frankly stupefying. I still find it incredible that such a clever man and successful politician could have made such a misjudgement. I really don't know how he redeems it now. Even if he did produce a rabbit out of the hat it would have an air of desperation, not triumph.
As Iain Martin observes, the trick will be producing a rabbit that survives the Sunday papers, the chances of it being more than window dressing are low considering how insubstantial the current text is. If anything it is likely to be something terribly impressive, but hedge around with some many other countries needing to agree before we can do it as to be practically worthless.
Chelsea for the Champions League @ 25/1 e-w (1/2 1-2)
Tough draw against PSG, but they are now playing much more like the side they were supposed to be.
You mean they beat Newcastle 5-1...
Unbeaten since Hiddink took over (lots of draws, mind). Won 1-0 away at the champions-elect.
Beating Arsenal is what Chelsea do - I wouldn't read too much into it. That said, they might beat PSG and if the draw fell kindly they might make the final.
Well it is 25/1 :-) And Chelsea have been pretty good at beating superior sides in Europe.
The expectation is that the government, the Labour party, the Lib Dems, the nationalists and even the Greens are going to stand up and back Remain. The expectation is that a majority of the City and business will do likewise. On the media while some of the shoutier papers will be for Out the BBC will undoubtedly be very much for In.
Very unusually, indeed uniquely, this came up at lunch today. Apart from me every other person at the table found the idea that we might vote for Leave simply bewildering. Incomprehensible even. Having spent time on here where Leave tends to dominate it was a strange but not unique experience. I had the same experience recently at dinner with a generally left of centre group of friends. Once again there was a reluctance to accept this was even a possibility.
With his truly lousy, indeed embarrassing, renegotiation Cameron has made the job of Remain harder and damaged his own credibility to boot. Notwithstanding that I fear the odds are rational and Remain remains the most likely winner.
I tend to agree. I think there are two interesting questions: (1) how big will the Leave vote be and where will it be found. That could affect both EU and UK politics in ways we might not yet anticipate. (2) Could there be an upset, similar to what happened in France over the EU Constitution (or was it Nice?) where the "Non" side surprised everyone?
There is a mood to give the establishment a kicking: Trump, Sanders, Corbyn etc. In some ways, the best thing for the EU and the political establishment here - including all those you mention - would be an almighty kick up the backside from a UK "No" Vote. They really all need their arses slapped and hard, they really do.
I agree. The degree of smug arrogance that could have resulted in Cameron trying to sell his current renegotiation is frankly stupefying. I still find it incredible that such a clever man and successful politician could have made such a misjudgement. I really don't know how he redeems it now. Even if he did produce a rabbit out of the hat it would have an air of desperation, not triumph.
It is tragic that Leave is such an incoherent, leaderless mob with no clear alternative in mind. They should have been a contender.
It's only a misjudgement if he either loses or exacerbates an irreconcilable divide in the Party.
If he wins then steps like this will be as memorable as pastygate was at 10pm on 7 May.
May I volunteer to be the first to spank her silly bottom? Something her mother should have done years ago.
Jesus: if only UKIP would STFU. Emma T is entitled to her view. And to express it. Why does he have to play the stereotype of the sort of man who thinks women who express a view a man disagrees with are silly children who should be punished?
Note to @CasinoRoyale (re your question on last night's thread): If you want to know why women may find Leave unattractive here is one answer.
Fortunately, I don't think he's in UKIP anymore.
Indeed - the former MEP Godfrey Bloom, quit UKIP because it was too "politically correct".
May I volunteer to be the first to spank her silly bottom? Something her mother should have done years ago.
Jesus: if only UKIP would STFU. Emma T is entitled to her view. And to express it. Why does he have to play the stereotype of the sort of man who thinks women who express a view a man disagrees with are silly children who should be punished?
Note to @CasinoRoyale (re your question on last night's thread): If you want to know why women may find Leave unattractive here is one answer.
I actually have my head in my hands right now.
Why on Earth are both sides STILL doing their level best to alienate floating voters?
Today we have a UKIP mysoginist on one side and Gordon Brown on the other. The PM also needs to get everyone involved in the EU and foreign politicians to STFU once the referendum is announced, there is absolutely nothing that Junker or Shulz can say that will draw people to the Remain camp in the closing weeks.
Bloom was kicked out of UKIP in 2014. He's still an idiot. Thomson is entitled to her view, and more than entitled to express it.
Time to get rid of the monarchy if they want to interfere in politics.
The Duke was presenting awards to members of the Foreign Office's Diplomatic Academy and gave a speech commending the foreign office and Britain’s historic role in foreign affairs. - Gordon Rayner for the Telegraph claims this “signals support for Britain staying in the EU”.
I’ve read the prince’s speech, Rayner is talking bollox.
If the expectation is that somewhere around 2/3 of Conservatives are going to vote OUT, it follows that 2/3 of Conservatives are going to be extremely pissed off with Dave and George if their farting around eventually conjurers up a REMAIN. Difficult to stay at the top of a party where two thirds of your voters, and probably more of your activists are pissed off with you... especially when you have been going around telling your MPs to ignore their activists and associations...
It's an even stranger way to "secure your legacy", especially if the EU manages to tear itself to pieces in the next few years and everyone wonders that all the contortions were about, and why he went to so much effort to "dock" us to a doomed entity. Worse still if the EU federalises rapidly as many have suggested it is going to and the position of non-Euro countries becomes untenable.
If the expectation is that somewhere around 2/3 of Conservatives are going to vote OUT, it follows that 2/3 of Conservatives are going to be extremely pissed off with Dave and George if their farting around eventually conjurers up a REMAIN. Difficult to stay at the top of a party where two thirds of your voters, and probably more of your activists are pissed off with you... especially when you have been going around telling your MPs to ignore their activists and associations...
It's an even stranger way to "secure your legacy", especially if the EU manages to tear itself to pieces in the next few years and everyone wonders that all the contortions were about, and why he went to so much effort to "dock" us to a doomed entity. Worse still if the EU federalises rapidly as many have suggested it is going to and the position of non-Euro countries becomes untenable.
Given that an opinion poll in a thread header recently gave Tory voters at a 45% remain/48% leave split which is margin of error from 50:50 and before Cameron starts campaigning properly for Remain why would we expect 2/3rds for Leave?
If the expectation is that somewhere around 2/3 of Conservatives are going to vote OUT, it follows that 2/3 of Conservatives are going to be extremely pissed off with Dave and George if their farting around eventually conjurers up a REMAIN. Difficult to stay at the top of a party where two thirds of your voters, and probably more of your activists are pissed off with you... especially when you have been going around telling your MPs to ignore their activists and associations...
It's an even stranger way to "secure your legacy", especially if the EU manages to tear itself to pieces in the next few years and everyone wonders that all the contortions were about, and why he went to so much effort to "dock" us to a doomed entity. Worse still if the EU federalises rapidly as many have suggested it is going to and the position of non-Euro countries becomes untenable.
Given that an opinion poll in a thread header recently gave Tory voters at a 45% remain/48% leave split which is margin of error from 50:50 and before Cameron starts campaigning properly for Remain why would we expect 2/3rds for Leave?
For the same reason that polls told us we would have a Labour government and we don't.
If you anticipate peace and tranquillity in the Tory party after a narrow vote IN or OUT, I admire your confidence
If the expectation is that somewhere around 2/3 of Conservatives are going to vote OUT, it follows that 2/3 of Conservatives are going to be extremely pissed off with Dave and George if their farting around eventually conjurers up a REMAIN. Difficult to stay at the top of a party where two thirds of your voters, and probably more of your activists are pissed off with you... especially when you have been going around telling your MPs to ignore their activists and associations...
It's an even stranger way to "secure your legacy", especially if the EU manages to tear itself to pieces in the next few years and everyone wonders that all the contortions were about, and why he went to so much effort to "dock" us to a doomed entity. Worse still if the EU federalises rapidly as many have suggested it is going to and the position of non-Euro countries becomes untenable.
If two thirds of Conservatives vote Out, then Leave will have won by a comfortable margin.
If the expectation is that somewhere around 2/3 of Conservatives are going to vote OUT, it follows that 2/3 of Conservatives are going to be extremely pissed off with Dave and George if their farting around eventually conjurers up a REMAIN. Difficult to stay at the top of a party where two thirds of your voters, and probably more of your activists are pissed off with you... especially when you have been going around telling your MPs to ignore their activists and associations...
It's an even stranger way to "secure your legacy", especially if the EU manages to tear itself to pieces in the next few years and everyone wonders that all the contortions were about, and why he went to so much effort to "dock" us to a doomed entity. Worse still if the EU federalises rapidly as many have suggested it is going to and the position of non-Euro countries becomes untenable.
Given that an opinion poll in a thread header recently gave Tory voters at a 45% remain/48% leave split which is margin of error from 50:50 and before Cameron starts campaigning properly for Remain why would we expect 2/3rds for Leave?
For the same reason that polls told us we would have a Labour government and we don't
Because they underestimated Cameron's strengths? If anything that would make us expect 2/3rds for REMAIN surely.
If the expectation is that somewhere around 2/3 of Conservatives are going to vote OUT, it follows that 2/3 of Conservatives are going to be extremely pissed off with Dave and George if their farting around eventually conjurers up a REMAIN. Difficult to stay at the top of a party where two thirds of your voters, and probably more of your activists are pissed off with you... especially when you have been going around telling your MPs to ignore their activists and associations...
It's an even stranger way to "secure your legacy", especially if the EU manages to tear itself to pieces in the next few years and everyone wonders that all the contortions were about, and why he went to so much effort to "dock" us to a doomed entity. Worse still if the EU federalises rapidly as many have suggested it is going to and the position of non-Euro countries becomes untenable.
If two thirds of Conservatives vote Out, then Leave will have won by a comfortable margin.
Police arrested a 35-year-old Longmont resident early Monday on suspicion of DUI despite the man's claim that he is the King of Scotland and therefore has diplomatic immunity that should bar his arrest.
Nicholas Baron James, who, according to a Longmont police report, is also known as "Heir to the Throne of Scotland" and "King Solomon," also faces drug-possession, traffic and violation of protective order charges.
If the expectation is that somewhere around 2/3 of Conservatives are going to vote OUT, it follows that 2/3 of Conservatives are going to be extremely pissed off with Dave and George if their farting around eventually conjurers up a REMAIN. Difficult to stay at the top of a party where two thirds of your voters, and probably more of your activists are pissed off with you... especially when you have been going around telling your MPs to ignore their activists and associations...
It's an even stranger way to "secure your legacy", especially if the EU manages to tear itself to pieces in the next few years and everyone wonders that all the contortions were about, and why he went to so much effort to "dock" us to a doomed entity. Worse still if the EU federalises rapidly as many have suggested it is going to and the position of non-Euro countries becomes untenable.
If two thirds of Conservatives vote Out, then Leave will have won by a comfortable margin.
Agreed. I'd probably be one of them to vote Out too in that scenario as would many other Cameroon Tories here.
Iain Martin on what went wrong with Cameron's team. "But the diplomatic bubble can be a dangerously seductive environment, especially when the inhabitants of Downing Street – the Tory leadership ......are used to people around them agreeing that they are brilliant and their deal all makes sense. This makes it difficult for those involved to stand back and say: hold on, how did this end up hinging on child benefit indexation for new immigrants ..... that do nothing to restore sovereignty or border control? Think about it. Number 10 has become hypnotised by its own drawn out process and cannot see how ridiculous its deal looks outside the gates of Downing Street..... ." http://capx.co/why-david-cameron-got-it-so-wrong-on-renegotiation/
The perils of surrounding yourself with nodding dogs as someone in these parts said the other week.
If the expectation is that somewhere around 2/3 of Conservatives are going to vote OUT, it follows that 2/3 of Conservatives are going to be extremely pissed off with Dave and George if their farting around eventually conjurers up a REMAIN. Difficult to stay at the top of a party where two thirds of your voters, and probably more of your activists are pissed off with you... especially when you have been going around telling your MPs to ignore their activists and associations...
It's an even stranger way to "secure your legacy", especially if the EU manages to tear itself to pieces in the next few years and everyone wonders that all the contortions were about, and why he went to so much effort to "dock" us to a doomed entity. Worse still if the EU federalises rapidly as many have suggested it is going to and the position of non-Euro countries becomes untenable.
If two thirds of Conservatives vote Out, then Leave will have won by a comfortable margin.
I thought right about now its 50/50
Broadly speaking, although edging towards a lead Leave, I think. In fact, Conservative voters' opinions are very similar to those of the country as a whole,.
If the expectation is that somewhere around 2/3 of Conservatives are going to vote OUT, it follows that 2/3 of Conservatives are going to be extremely pissed off with Dave and George if their farting around eventually conjurers up a REMAIN. Difficult to stay at the top of a party where two thirds of your voters, and probably more of your activists are pissed off with you... especially when you have been going around telling your MPs to ignore their activists and associations...
It's an even stranger way to "secure your legacy", especially if the EU manages to tear itself to pieces in the next few years and everyone wonders that all the contortions were about, and why he went to so much effort to "dock" us to a doomed entity. Worse still if the EU federalises rapidly as many have suggested it is going to and the position of non-Euro countries becomes untenable.
Given that an opinion poll in a thread header recently gave Tory voters at a 45% remain/48% leave split which is margin of error from 50:50 and before Cameron starts campaigning properly for Remain why would we expect 2/3rds for Leave?
For the same reason that polls told us we would have a Labour government and we don't.
If you anticipate peace and tranquillity in the Tory party after a narrow vote IN or OUT, I admire your confidence
Just saw your edited in line. I don't anticipate a narrow vote, I expect Remain to achieve between 60% to 66%.
My absolute worst-case scenario is a 51% Remain vote. I'd rather a 51% Leave vote than that. I think a narrow Out vote will have relative peace as the matter will be over then.
If the expectation is that somewhere around 2/3 of Conservatives are going to vote OUT, it follows that 2/3 of Conservatives are going to be extremely pissed off with Dave and George if their farting around eventually conjurers up a REMAIN. Difficult to stay at the top of a party where two thirds of your voters, and probably more of your activists are pissed off with you... especially when you have been going around telling your MPs to ignore their activists and associations...
It's an even stranger way to "secure your legacy", especially if the EU manages to tear itself to pieces in the next few years and everyone wonders that all the contortions were about, and why he went to so much effort to "dock" us to a doomed entity. Worse still if the EU federalises rapidly as many have suggested it is going to and the position of non-Euro countries becomes untenable.
If two thirds of Conservatives vote Out, then Leave will have won by a comfortable margin.
I thought right about now its 50/50
Actually, I don't care. I am just bored with the six month run of complacent smugness we have had to endure from certain sections of this board. I agree with CycleFree a crushing defeat on almost anything is long overdue, to dislodge some heads from backsides, both in the government and elsewhere.. and I say this as a Conservative voter and former member.
The expectation is that the government, the Labour party, the Lib Dems, the nationalists and even the Greens are going to stand up and back Remain. The expectation is that a majority of the City and business will do likewise. On the media while some of the shoutier papers will be for Out the BBC will undoubtedly be very much for In.
Very unusually, indeed uniquely, this came up at lunch today. Apart from me every other person at the table found the idea that we might vote for Leave simply bewildering. Incomprehensible even. Having spent time on here where Leave tends to dominate it was a strange but not unique experience. I had the same experience recently at dinner with a generally left of centre group of friends. Once again there was a reluctance to accept this was even a possibility.
With his truly lousy, indeed embarrassing, renegotiation Cameron has made the job of Remain harder and damaged his own credibility to boot. Notwithstanding that I fear the odds are rational and Remain remains the most likely winner.
I tend to agree. I think there are two interesting questions: (1) how big will the Leave vote be and where will it be found. That could affect both EU and UK politics in ways we might not yet anticipate. (2) Could there be an upset, similar to what happened in France over the EU Constitution (or was it Nice?) where the "Non" side surprised everyone?
There is a mood to give the establishment a kicking: Trump, Sanders, Corbyn etc. In some ways, the best thing for the EU and the political establishment here - including all those you mention - would be an almighty kick up the backside from a UK "No" Vote. They really all need their arses slapped and hard, they really do.
My best guess is that Leave will win about 45% of the vote.
I think most voters over 50, and most working class voters will vote Leave. I think that Conservative voters will vote about 50-55% for Leave, and UKIP voters will vote about 90% for Leave. About 25-30% of the rest will vote Leave.
I think Remain will carry Scotland by a big margin, Greater London, Surrey, Berkshire, Hertfordshire, all the big cities and Metropolitan boroughs, Merseyside, Welsh-speaking Wales, Northern Ireland, and Leave will carry everywhere else.
Are you going to be (are you already?) playing an active part in the campaign?
I always found your UKIP (and earlier, Tory) reports from the battlegrounds to be very insightful.
Police arrested a 35-year-old Longmont resident early Monday on suspicion of DUI despite the man's claim that he is the King of Scotland and therefore has diplomatic immunity that should bar his arrest.
Nicholas Baron James, who, according to a Longmont police report, is also known as "Heir to the Throne of Scotland" and "King Solomon," also faces drug-possession, traffic and violation of protective order charges.
If the expectation is that somewhere around 2/3 of Conservatives are going to vote OUT, it follows that 2/3 of Conservatives are going to be extremely pissed off with Dave and George if their farting around eventually conjurers up a REMAIN. Difficult to stay at the top of a party where two thirds of your voters, and probably more of your activists are pissed off with you... especially when you have been going around telling your MPs to ignore their activists and associations...
It's an even stranger way to "secure your legacy", especially if the EU manages to tear itself to pieces in the next few years and everyone wonders that all the contortions were about, and why he went to so much effort to "dock" us to a doomed entity. Worse still if the EU federalises rapidly as many have suggested it is going to and the position of non-Euro countries becomes untenable.
If two thirds of Conservatives vote Out, then Leave will have won by a comfortable margin.
I thought right about now its 50/50
I think 60/40. Key I believe are Labour voters. They are less concerned about the economic arguments and more concerned with immigration, they just have to do what Scots did and abandon the Labour party.
The expectation is that the government, the Labour party, the Lib Dems, the nationalists and even the Greens are going to stand up and back Remain. The expectation is that a majority of the City and business will do likewise. On the media while some of the shoutier papers will be for Out the BBC will undoubtedly be very much for In.
Very unusually, indeed uniquely, this came up at lunch today. Apart from me every other person at the table found the idea that we might vote for Leave simply bewildering. Incomprehensible even. Having spent time on here where Leave tends to dominate it was a strange but not unique experience. I had the same experience recently at dinner with a generally left of centre group of friends. Once again there was a reluctance to accept this was even a possibility.
With his truly lousy, indeed embarrassing, renegotiation Cameron has made the job of Remain harder and damaged his own credibility to boot. Notwithstanding that I fear the odds are rational and Remain remains the most likely winner.
I tend to agree. I think there are two interesting questions: (1) how big will the Leave vote be and where will it be found. That could affect both EU and UK politics in ways we might not yet anticipate. (2) Could there be an upset, similar to what happened in France over the EU Constitution (or was it Nice?) where the "Non" side surprised everyone?
There is a mood to give the establishment a kicking: Trump, Sanders, Corbyn etc. In some ways, the best thing for the EU and the political establishment here - including all those you mention - would be an almighty kick up the backside from a UK "No" Vote. They really all need their arses slapped and hard, they really do.
My best guess is that Leave will win about 45% of the vote.
I think most voters over 50, and most working class voters will vote Leave. I think that Conservative voters will vote about 50-55% for Leave, and UKIP voters will vote about 90% for Leave. About 25-30% of the rest will vote Leave.
I think Remain will carry Scotland by a big margin, Greater London, Surrey, Berkshire, Hertfordshire, all the big cities and Metropolitan boroughs, Merseyside, Welsh-speaking Wales, Northern Ireland, and Leave will carry everywhere else.
Are you going to be (are you already?) playing an active part in the campaign?
I always found your UKIP (and earlier, Tory) reports from the battlegrounds to be very insightful.
It's certainly my intention to help whichever organisation is designated as the official Leave campaign group. I expect I'll be delivering a ton of leaflets in Luton, a town where Leave may do quite well, given that Kelvin Hopkins will be campaigning for Leave.
Time to get rid of the monarchy if they want to interfere in politics.
The Duke was presenting awards to members of the Foreign Office's Diplomatic Academy and gave a speech commending the foreign office and Britain’s historic role in foreign affairs. - Gordon Rayner for the Telegraph claims this “signals support for Britain staying in the EU”.
I’ve read the prince’s speech, Rayner is talking bollox.
If the expectation is that somewhere around 2/3 of Conservatives are going to vote OUT, it follows that 2/3 of Conservatives are going to be extremely pissed off with Dave and George if their farting around eventually conjurers up a REMAIN. Difficult to stay at the top of a party where two thirds of your voters, and probably more of your activists are pissed off with you... especially when you have been going around telling your MPs to ignore their activists and associations...
It's an even stranger way to "secure your legacy", especially if the EU manages to tear itself to pieces in the next few years and everyone wonders that all the contortions were about, and why he went to so much effort to "dock" us to a doomed entity. Worse still if the EU federalises rapidly as many have suggested it is going to and the position of non-Euro countries becomes untenable.
If two thirds of Conservatives vote Out, then Leave will have won by a comfortable margin.
I thought right about now its 50/50
I think 60/40. Key I believe are Labour voters. They are less concerned about the economic arguments and more concerned with immigration, they just have to do what Scots did and abandon the Labour party.
Time to get rid of the monarchy if they want to interfere in politics.
The Duke was presenting awards to members of the Foreign Office's Diplomatic Academy and gave a speech commending the foreign office and Britain’s historic role in foreign affairs. - Gordon Rayner for the Telegraph claims this “signals support for Britain staying in the EU”.
I’ve read the prince’s speech, Rayner is talking bollox.
Peston was tweeting along the same lines. He seems to have completely lost the plot recently.
"I think Remain will carry Scotland by a big margin, Greater London, Surrey, Berkshire, Hertfordshire, all the big cities and Metropolitan boroughs, Merseyside, Welsh-speaking Wales, Northern Ireland, and Leave will carry everywhere else."
Leave surely has a good chance of carrying some of the metropolitan boroughs that surround the big cities like Walsall, Dudley, Rotherham, Bolton, Wigan, Gateshead, South Tyneside, Barnsley, Doncaster, etc.
Iain Martin on what went wrong with Cameron's team. "But the diplomatic bubble can be a dangerously seductive environment, especially when the inhabitants of Downing Street – the Tory leadership ......are used to people around them agreeing that they are brilliant and their deal all makes sense. This makes it difficult for those involved to stand back and say: hold on, how did this end up hinging on child benefit indexation for new immigrants ..... that do nothing to restore sovereignty or border control? Think about it. Number 10 has become hypnotised by its own drawn out process and cannot see how ridiculous its deal looks outside the gates of Downing Street..... ." http://capx.co/why-david-cameron-got-it-so-wrong-on-renegotiation/
The perils of surrounding yourself with nodding dogs as someone in these parts said the other week.
One thing punters certainly should pay no heed to is the anti Cameron bile poured out on here day after day. its certainly not representative.
Only in your dreams.
I was on the phone to Mrs Indigo (Senior) earlier today, a traditional blue-rinse party member if ever there was one, who felt that the recent shenanigans after returning from the renegotiation were a bit of an embarrassment. She is firmly of the view that he would have been much better forgetting the renegotiations and pitching the EU on its merits, which would have had the air of respectability, rather than coming home and channelling Neil Kinnock at Sheffield, what frankly made him look a bit of a fool.
Time to get rid of the monarchy if they want to interfere in politics.
The Duke was presenting awards to members of the Foreign Office's Diplomatic Academy and gave a speech commending the foreign office and Britain’s historic role in foreign affairs. - Gordon Rayner for the Telegraph claims this “signals support for Britain staying in the EU”.
I’ve read the prince’s speech, Rayner is talking bollox.
May be this is just Foreign Office spin to the hacks as to how they should interpret the words they gave to the Prince to read out. The Palace have swiftly denied the interpretation.
The expectation is that the government, the Labour party, the Lib Dems, the nationalists and even the Greens are going to stand up and back Remain. The expectation is that a majority of the City and business will do likewise. On the media while some of the shoutier papers will be for Out the BBC will undoubtedly be very much for In.
Very unusually, indeed uniquely, this came up at lunch today. Apart from me every other person at the table found the idea that we might vote for Leave simply bewildering. Incomprehensible even. Having spent time on here where Leave tends to dominate it was a strange but not unique experience. I had the same experience recently at dinner with a generally left of centre group of friends. Once again there was a reluctance to accept this was even a possibility.
With his truly lousy, indeed embarrassing, renegotiation Cameron has made the job of Remain harder and damaged his own credibility to boot. Notwithstanding that I fear the odds are rational and Remain remains the most likely winner.
I tend to agree. I think there are two interesting questions: (1) how big will the Leave vote be and where will it be found. That could affect both EU and UK politics in ways we might not yet anticipate. (2) Could there be an upset, similar to what happened in France over the EU Constitution (or was it Nice?) where the "Non" side surprised everyone?
There is a mood to give the establishment a kicking: Trump, Sanders, Corbyn etc. In some ways, the best thing for the EU and the political establishment here - including all those you mention - would be an almighty kick up the backside from a UK "No" Vote. They really all need their arses slapped and hard, they really do.
My best guess is that Leave will win about 45% of the vote.
I think most voters over 50, and most working class voters will vote Leave. I think that Conservative voters will vote about 50-55% for Leave, and UKIP voters will vote about 90% for Leave. About 25-30% of the rest will vote Leave.
I think Remain will carry Scotland by a big margin, Greater London, Surrey, Berkshire, Hertfordshire, all the big cities and Metropolitan boroughs, Merseyside, Welsh-speaking Wales, Northern Ireland, and Leave will carry everywhere else.
I think geographically this is broadly right with the exception of Welsh-speaking Wales. North and West Wales are some of the most insular parts of the mainland; I can't see them voting for continued membership.
Just saw your edited in line. I don't anticipate a narrow vote, I expect Remain to achieve between 60% to 66%.
My absolute worst-case scenario is a 51% Remain vote. I'd rather a 51% Leave vote than that. I think a narrow Out vote will have relative peace as the matter will be over then.
With Immigration being the top concern with the public, and 76% of people wanting less immigration, and 52% wanting "much" less, and Dave not giving them even a token reduction, its going to be an interesting circle to square. They are certainly not going to buy any bullshit about "emergency brakes".
If the expectation is that somewhere around 2/3 of Conservatives are going to vote OUT, it follows that 2/3 of Conservatives are going to be extremely pissed off with Dave and George if their farting around eventually conjurers up a REMAIN. Difficult to stay at the top of a party where two thirds of your voters, and probably more of your activists are pissed off with you... especially when you have been going around telling your MPs to ignore their activists and associations...
It's an even stranger way to "secure your legacy", especially if the EU manages to tear itself to pieces in the next few years and everyone wonders that all the contortions were about, and why he went to so much effort to "dock" us to a doomed entity. Worse still if the EU federalises rapidly as many have suggested it is going to and the position of non-Euro countries becomes untenable.
If 2/3 of Con vote Out then Leave probably wins. Based on current opinion polls
e.g.
Con 39 x 2/3 = 26 Lab 29 x 1/3 = 9.3 UKIP 16 x 9/10 = 14.2 LD 7 x 1/4 = 1.8 SNP 5 x 1/4 = 1.2 Grn 3 x 1/3 = 1 Oth 1 x 1/2 = 0.5
Total 54.
UKIP might not get quite that high a proportion but then Labour might be higher. But even if it's only 80% of UKIP voters going Leave then if 2/3 of Tories do, that's still nearly 40% in the bag for Leave with nearly 45% of the electorate to go at.
If the expectation is that somewhere around 2/3 of Conservatives are going to vote OUT, it follows that 2/3 of Conservatives are going to be extremely pissed off with Dave and George if their farting around eventually conjurers up a REMAIN. Difficult to stay at the top of a party where two thirds of your voters, and probably more of your activists are pissed off with you... especially when you have been going around telling your MPs to ignore their activists and associations...
It's an even stranger way to "secure your legacy", especially if the EU manages to tear itself to pieces in the next few years and everyone wonders that all the contortions were about, and why he went to so much effort to "dock" us to a doomed entity. Worse still if the EU federalises rapidly as many have suggested it is going to and the position of non-Euro countries becomes untenable.
If 2/3 of Con vote Out then Leave probably wins. Based on current opinion polls
e.g.
Con 39 x 2/3 = 26 Lab 29 x 1/3 = 9.3 UKIP 16 x 9/10 = 14.2 LD 7 x 1/4 = 1.8 SNP 5 x 1/4 = 1.2 Grn 3 x 1/3 = 1 Oth 1 x 1/2 = 0.5
Total 54.
UKIP might not get quite that high a proportion but then Labour might be higher. But even if it's only 80% of UKIP voters going Leave then if 2/3 of Tories do, that's still nearly 40% in the bag for Leave with nearly 45% of the electorate to go at.
I would use Euro election results as well to see how it fits... when I did that it came to about 51% LEAVE I think... prob why I did it haha!
Austria reports rise in crime after Germany begins rejecting one in ten migrants at the border... turning some areas into 'no-go' zones for women
It comes after Berlin approved a series of measures aimed at making Germany less attractive, particularly to economic migrants.
The move includes classifying Morocco, Tunisia and Algeria as 'safe' origin countries – a category which means their citizens would not usually gain asylum.
Instead they are being sent back to the places where they crossed. Those being turned back at the border also include those who have tried to get into Germany with stolen or fake passports.
"Emma Thompson has been called an "overpaid, leftie luvvie" after warning it would be "madness" for the UK to vote to leave the European Union.
The Love Actually actress was speaking at the Berlin Film Festival when she said a vote for an exit was a "crazy idea". She described living in "a tiny little cloud-bolted, rainy corner of sort-of Europe ... a cake-filled misery-laden grey old island"."
Is Kasich going to prove the dark horse of the campaign? On one level, 7% is piss poor. On another, if he knocks out Bush then he's well-placed to pick up most of his support, particularly if Rubio is dropping back too.
Or is this missing the wood for the trees; the wood being that Trump is strolling towards the nomination?
"I think Remain will carry Scotland by a big margin, Greater London, Surrey, Berkshire, Hertfordshire, all the big cities and Metropolitan boroughs, Merseyside, Welsh-speaking Wales, Northern Ireland, and Leave will carry everywhere else."
Leave surely has a good chance of carrying some of the metropolitan boroughs that surround the big cities like Walsall, Dudley, Rotherham, Bolton, Wigan, Gateshead, South Tyneside, Barnsley, Doncaster, etc.
LEAVE will do brilliantly in any town where there's been large scale immigration from Slovakia, Bulgaria, Poland, etc. Especially Roma immigration. Sad but true.
That's quite a lot of towns. Mostly Labour voting.
I forecast Leave will do badly in Primrose Hill, Hampstead, St Johns Wood, and Camden.
"I think Remain will carry Scotland by a big margin, Greater London, Surrey, Berkshire, Hertfordshire, all the big cities and Metropolitan boroughs, Merseyside, Welsh-speaking Wales, Northern Ireland, and Leave will carry everywhere else."
Leave surely has a good chance of carrying some of the metropolitan boroughs that surround the big cities like Walsall, Dudley, Rotherham, Bolton, Wigan, Gateshead, South Tyneside, Barnsley, Doncaster, etc.
LEAVE will do brilliantly in any town where there's been large scale immigration from Slovakia, Bulgaria, Poland, etc. Especially Roma immigration. Sad but true.
That's quite a lot of towns. Mostly Labour voting.
There was a interesting documentary on the other day called Keeping up with the Khans about Eastern European (mainly Roma) immigration into an Asian area of Sheffield. It highlighted to me there are probably quite a few ethnic minority voters who wouldn't dream of voting UKIP but might well vote to leave.
Is Kasich going to prove the dark horse of the campaign? On one level, 7% is piss poor. On another, if he knocks out Bush then he's well-placed to pick up most of his support, particularly if Rubio is dropping back too.
Or is this missing the wood for the trees; the wood being that Trump is strolling towards the nomination?
What kind of REMAIN win will "settle it for a generation"? I think REMAIN has to win at least 60/40, and win squarely in England, most of all.
Anything else (let alone a LEAVE victory) and the arguments will return quite quickly.
Indeed the arguments will return anyway, once the EZ Federalises. But a close vote will accelerate things.
If it's 60-40 overall then that will be a square win in England. Even if Scotland and Wales go 80-20 then assuming equal turnouts, it'd mean about 57-43 in England, and a 16% lead is a fairly comfortable gap.
If the expectation is that somewhere around 2/3 of Conservatives are going to vote OUT, it follows that 2/3 of Conservatives are going to be extremely pissed off with Dave and George if their farting around eventually conjurers up a REMAIN. Difficult to stay at the top of a party where two thirds of your voters, and probably more of your activists are pissed off with you... especially when you have been going around telling your MPs to ignore their activists and associations...
It's an even stranger way to "secure your legacy", especially if the EU manages to tear itself to pieces in the next few years and everyone wonders that all the contortions were about, and why he went to so much effort to "dock" us to a doomed entity. Worse still if the EU federalises rapidly as many have suggested it is going to and the position of non-Euro countries becomes untenable.
If 2/3 of Con vote Out then Leave probably wins. Based on current opinion polls
e.g.
Con 39 x 2/3 = 26 Lab 29 x 1/3 = 9.3 UKIP 16 x 9/10 = 14.2 LD 7 x 1/4 = 1.8 SNP 5 x 1/4 = 1.2 Grn 3 x 1/3 = 1 Oth 1 x 1/2 = 0.5
Total 54.
UKIP might not get quite that high a proportion but then Labour might be higher. But even if it's only 80% of UKIP voters going Leave then if 2/3 of Tories do, that's still nearly 40% in the bag for Leave with nearly 45% of the electorate to go at.
If 2/3rds of Tories vote Leave, I'd expect way more than 1/3rd of Labour to do so too. Labour voters (as opposed to their leadership) are just as likely to be bothered by immigration etc and are more likely to be undercut by it than Tories are I suspect.
What kind of REMAIN win will "settle it for a generation"? I think REMAIN has to win at least 60/40, and win squarely in England, most of all.
Anything else (let alone a LEAVE victory) and the arguments will return quite quickly.
Indeed the arguments will return anyway, once the EZ Federalises. But a close vote will accelerate things.
If it's 60-40 overall then that will be a square win in England. Even if Scotland and Wales go 80-20 then assuming equal turnouts, it'd mean about 57-43 in England, and a 16% lead is a fairly comfortable gap.
Wales looks like behaving more like provincial England than either Scotland or London according to recent polls.
What kind of REMAIN win will "settle it for a generation"? I think REMAIN has to win at least 60/40, and win squarely in England, most of all.
Anything else (let alone a LEAVE victory) and the arguments will return quite quickly.
Indeed the arguments will return anyway, once the EZ Federalises. But a close vote will accelerate things.
If it's 60-40 overall then that will be a square win in England. Even if Scotland and Wales go 80-20 then assuming equal turnouts, it'd mean about 57-43 in England, and a 16% lead is a fairly comfortable gap.
Wales looks like behaving more like provincial England than either Scotland or London according to recent polls.
Yes, I'd agree with that. I was just making the point that if the overall result produces as big a margin as 60-40 then England *has* to have gone that way too, by some distance. In fact, as you say, the probability is that the England result will be even closer to the UK one because of Wales.
"I think Remain will carry Scotland by a big margin, Greater London, Surrey, Berkshire, Hertfordshire, all the big cities and Metropolitan boroughs, Merseyside, Welsh-speaking Wales, Northern Ireland, and Leave will carry everywhere else."
Leave surely has a good chance of carrying some of the metropolitan boroughs that surround the big cities like Walsall, Dudley, Rotherham, Bolton, Wigan, Gateshead, South Tyneside, Barnsley, Doncaster, etc.
LEAVE will do brilliantly in any town where there's been large scale immigration from Slovakia, Bulgaria, Poland, etc. Especially Roma immigration. Sad but true.
That's quite a lot of towns. Mostly Labour voting.
I forecast Leave will do badly in Primrose Hill, Hampstead, St Johns Wood, and Camden.
If it's 60-40 overall then that will be a square win in England. Even if Scotland and Wales go 80-20 then assuming equal turnouts, it'd mean about 57-43 in England, and a 16% lead is a fairly comfortable gap.
Then in six months time the Eurozone introduces some banking changes to deal with the Greek (and possibly Italian) situation, the UK waves it's renegotiation promises, the French complain and take it to the ECJ, and the ECJ laughs and says that political promises even "legally binding" ones cannot overrule the treaties, and its will all have been for nothing, all that political capital, all that time and Dave will be a laughing stock, if he is lucky.
Incidentally the ECJ has ruled against UN Security Council resolutions that had already been adopted by the Council of Europe (Kadi & Al Barakaat v. Council of the EU & EC Commission) because they conflict with the treaties, so legally binding political promises have no chance.
My best guess is that Leave will win about 45% of the vote.
I think most voters over 50, and most working class voters will vote Leave. I think that Conservative voters will vote about 50-55% for Leave, and UKIP voters will vote about 90% for Leave. About 25-30% of the rest will vote Leave.
I think Remain will carry Scotland by a big margin, Greater London, Surrey, Berkshire, Hertfordshire, all the big cities and Metropolitan boroughs, Merseyside, Welsh-speaking Wales, Northern Ireland, and Leave will carry everywhere else.
Are you going to be (are you already?) playing an active part in the campaign?
I always found your UKIP (and earlier, Tory) reports from the battlegrounds to be very insightful.
It's certainly my intention to help whichever organisation is designated as the official Leave campaign group. I expect I'll be delivering a ton of leaflets in Luton, a town where Leave may do quite well, given that Kelvin Hopkins will be campaigning for Leave.
Thanks.
I'm surprised you haven't started yet, in a way. Do you think you might have already if the organisation hadn't been so poor?
"I think Remain will carry Scotland by a big margin, Greater London, Surrey, Berkshire, Hertfordshire, all the big cities and Metropolitan boroughs, Merseyside, Welsh-speaking Wales, Northern Ireland, and Leave will carry everywhere else."
Leave surely has a good chance of carrying some of the metropolitan boroughs that surround the big cities like Walsall, Dudley, Rotherham, Bolton, Wigan, Gateshead, South Tyneside, Barnsley, Doncaster, etc.
LEAVE will do brilliantly in any town where there's been large scale immigration from Slovakia, Bulgaria, Poland, etc. Especially Roma immigration. Sad but true.
That's quite a lot of towns. Mostly Labour voting.
"I think Remain will carry Scotland by a big margin, Greater London, Surrey, Berkshire, Hertfordshire, all the big cities and Metropolitan boroughs, Merseyside, Welsh-speaking Wales, Northern Ireland, and Leave will carry everywhere else."
Leave surely has a good chance of carrying some of the metropolitan boroughs that surround the big cities like Walsall, Dudley, Rotherham, Bolton, Wigan, Gateshead, South Tyneside, Barnsley, Doncaster, etc.
LEAVE will do brilliantly in any town where there's been large scale immigration from Slovakia, Bulgaria, Poland, etc. Especially Roma immigration. Sad but true.
That's quite a lot of towns. Mostly Labour voting.
I can't see Crewe voting remain.
I think the large number of Poles in Crewe might want to...
I'm feeling generous. I'll lay 5/1 if you're interested?
It's got to be closer to 500/1. In fact in the last five general elections since 1997 there's only been one result close to a tie, so in reality it's more like 3000/1. No I'm not offering to lay at that price
"I think Remain will carry Scotland by a big margin, Greater London, Surrey, Berkshire, Hertfordshire, all the big cities and Metropolitan boroughs, Merseyside, Welsh-speaking Wales, Northern Ireland, and Leave will carry everywhere else."
Leave surely has a good chance of carrying some of the metropolitan boroughs that surround the big cities like Walsall, Dudley, Rotherham, Bolton, Wigan, Gateshead, South Tyneside, Barnsley, Doncaster, etc.
"I think Remain will carry Scotland by a big margin, Greater London, Surrey, Berkshire, Hertfordshire, all the big cities and Metropolitan boroughs, Merseyside, Welsh-speaking Wales, Northern Ireland, and Leave will carry everywhere else."
Leave surely has a good chance of carrying some of the metropolitan boroughs that surround the big cities like Walsall, Dudley, Rotherham, Bolton, Wigan, Gateshead, South Tyneside, Barnsley, Doncaster, etc.
LEAVE will do brilliantly in any town where there's been large scale immigration from Slovakia, Bulgaria, Poland, etc. Especially Roma immigration. Sad but true.
That's quite a lot of towns. Mostly Labour voting.
I can't see Crewe voting remain.
I think the large number of Poles in Crewe might want to...
I'm feeling generous. I'll lay 5/1 if you're interested?
It's got to be closer to 500/1. In fact in the last five general elections since 1997 there's only been one result close to a tie, so in reality it's more like 3000/1. No I'm not offering to lay at that price
My best guess is that Leave will win about 45% of the vote.
I think most voters over 50, and most working class voters will vote Leave. I think that Conservative voters will vote about 50-55% for Leave, and UKIP voters will vote about 90% for Leave. About 25-30% of the rest will vote Leave.
I think Remain will carry Scotland by a big margin, Greater London, Surrey, Berkshire, Hertfordshire, all the big cities and Metropolitan boroughs, Merseyside, Welsh-speaking Wales, Northern Ireland, and Leave will carry everywhere else.
Are you going to be (are you already?) playing an active part in the campaign?
I always found your UKIP (and earlier, Tory) reports from the battlegrounds to be very insightful.
It's certainly my intention to help whichever organisation is designated as the official Leave campaign group. I expect I'll be delivering a ton of leaflets in Luton, a town where Leave may do quite well, given that Kelvin Hopkins will be campaigning for Leave.
Thanks.
I'm surprised you haven't started yet, in a way. Do you think you might have already if the organisation hadn't been so poor?
I'm feeling generous. I'll lay 5/1 if you're interested?
It's got to be closer to 500/1. In fact in the last five general elections since 1997 there's only been one result close to a tie, so in reality it's more like 3000/1. No I'm not offering to lay at that price
I'm feeling generous. I'll lay 5/1 if you're interested?
It's got to be closer to 500/1. In fact in the last five general elections since 1997 there's only been one result close to a tie, so in reality it's more like 3000/1. No I'm not offering to lay at that price
You should be. It's more like 1,000,000/1
I think Sandpit would be closer. I can't see it being beyond 100k/1
I'm feeling generous. I'll lay 5/1 if you're interested?
It's got to be closer to 500/1. In fact in the last five general elections since 1997 there's only been one result close to a tie, so in reality it's more like 3000/1. No I'm not offering to lay at that price
I'm feeling generous. I'll lay 5/1 if you're interested?
It's got to be closer to 500/1. In fact in the last five general elections since 1997 there's only been one result close to a tie, so in reality it's more like 3000/1. No I'm not offering to lay at that price
You should be. It's more like 1,000,000/1
Is there a technical definition of a tie? Unless there is some rounding then it has to be millions to one.
"I think Remain will carry Scotland by a big margin, Greater London, Surrey, Berkshire, Hertfordshire, all the big cities and Metropolitan boroughs, Merseyside, Welsh-speaking Wales, Northern Ireland, and Leave will carry everywhere else."
Leave surely has a good chance of carrying some of the metropolitan boroughs that surround the big cities like Walsall, Dudley, Rotherham, Bolton, Wigan, Gateshead, South Tyneside, Barnsley, Doncaster, etc.
On reflection, yes, there's a good chance.
At the same time Remain may carry some middle-class commuter districts near big cities like Harrogate, Solihull, Oadby & Wigston, etc.
I'm feeling generous. I'll lay 5/1 if you're interested?
It's got to be closer to 500/1. In fact in the last five general elections since 1997 there's only been one result close to a tie, so in reality it's more like 3000/1. No I'm not offering to lay at that price
You should be. It's more like 1,000,000/1
If we had kept our mouths shut I reckon Pong would've been on at 1/9 or bigger the other side
My best guess is that Leave will win about 45% of the vote.
I think most voters over 50, and most working class voters will vote Leave. I think that Conservative voters will vote about 50-55% for Leave, and UKIP voters will vote about 90% for Leave. About 25-30% of the rest will vote Leave.
I think Remain will carry Scotland by a big margin, Greater London, Surrey, Berkshire, Hertfordshire, all the big cities and Metropolitan boroughs, Merseyside, Welsh-speaking Wales, Northern Ireland, and Leave will carry everywhere else.
Are you going to be (are you already?) playing an active part in the campaign?
I always found your UKIP (and earlier, Tory) reports from the battlegrounds to be very insightful.
It's certainly my intention to help whichever organisation is designated as the official Leave campaign group. I expect I'll be delivering a ton of leaflets in Luton, a town where Leave may do quite well, given that Kelvin Hopkins will be campaigning for Leave.
Thanks.
I'm surprised you haven't started yet, in a way. Do you think you might have already if the organisation hadn't been so poor?
Yes. At this stage, I don't know who to assist.
You should come up with a plan to lock up the likes of Farage and John Redwood in a shed until after the referendum is over.
One thing punters certainly should pay no heed to is the anti Cameron bile poured out on here day after day. its certainly not representative.
Cameron gets more support here than among the public generally.
Really? General public he has over 30% support from memory. He doesn't seem to have that much here. General public Tories he has about 80% from memory, on here I'd estimate more than 1/5th of Tories don't like him.
Consensus in room 7 is that there is no provision for a recount in event of a close result in EU referendum & a tie means UK stays in.
The tie rule is, in a sense, fair enough: the principle of 'change needs a majority' is well-established. However, to have no provision for a re-count is bloody ridiculous.
Comments
Report on Scottish House prices
https://www.ros.gov.uk/__data/assets/pdf_file/0003/34194/RoS-statistical-report-Oct-Dec-2015.pdf
The biggest looser was Shetland, Aberdeen did see a annual price fall but only 1.8 percent compared to Shetland's 13.3% drop.
The large Aberdeenshire area had no change.
Aberdeen City had a massive drop in the volume of sales.
If he wins then steps like this will be as memorable as pastygate was at 10pm on 7 May.
I’ve read the prince’s speech, Rayner is talking bollox.
It's an even stranger way to "secure your legacy", especially if the EU manages to tear itself to pieces in the next few years and everyone wonders that all the contortions were about, and why he went to so much effort to "dock" us to a doomed entity. Worse still if the EU federalises rapidly as many have suggested it is going to and the position of non-Euro countries becomes untenable.
If you anticipate peace and tranquillity in the Tory party after a narrow vote IN or OUT, I admire your confidence
Indeed, luvvie airheads should be encouraged to express their views on this topic. It only illustrates how vacuous the Remain campaign is.
Police arrested a 35-year-old Longmont resident early Monday on suspicion of DUI despite the man's claim that he is the King of Scotland and therefore has diplomatic immunity that should bar his arrest.
Nicholas Baron James, who, according to a Longmont police report, is also known as "Heir to the Throne of Scotland" and "King Solomon," also faces drug-possession, traffic and violation of protective order charges.
http://www.timescall.com/news/ci_29509065/dui-suspect-tells-longmont-police-hes-king-of-scotland-demands-diplomatic-immunity-
Trump Tells Michael Savage: "They Found A Pillow On His Face, Which Is A Pretty Unusual Place"
http://mediamatters.org/blog/2016/02/16/trump-joins-radio-ally-to-fuel-scalia-murder-co/208604
My absolute worst-case scenario is a 51% Remain vote. I'd rather a 51% Leave vote than that. I think a narrow Out vote will have relative peace as the matter will be over then.
Captain Blackadder: So your father's German, you're half German, and you married a German!
https://health.spectator.co.uk/the-great-alcohol-cover-up-how-public-health-bodies-hid-the-truth-about-drinking/?utm_content=buffer96262&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer
Ever feel you are being cheated? (J. Rotten 1977)
I always found your UKIP (and earlier, Tory) reports from the battlegrounds to be very insightful.
Trump 38 (+3)
Cruz 18 (-2)
Rubio 14 (-3)
Carson 8 (+1)
Kasich 7 (+4)
Bush 4 (+1)
Clinton 50 (-1)
Sanders 40 (+1)
http://floridapolitics.com/archives/201870-donald-trump-hillary-clinton-maintain-sizable-leads-in-national-nbc-news-tracking-poll
You mean like the above?
Leave surely has a good chance of carrying some of the metropolitan boroughs that surround the big cities like Walsall, Dudley, Rotherham, Bolton, Wigan, Gateshead, South Tyneside, Barnsley, Doncaster, etc.
@campbellclaret: @ChrisMasonBBC anyone seen Salmond lately?
I was on the phone to Mrs Indigo (Senior) earlier today, a traditional blue-rinse party member if ever there was one, who felt that the recent shenanigans after returning from the renegotiation were a bit of an embarrassment. She is firmly of the view that he would have been much better forgetting the renegotiations and pitching the EU on its merits, which would have had the air of respectability, rather than coming home and channelling Neil Kinnock at Sheffield, what frankly made him look a bit of a fool.
e.g.
Con 39 x 2/3 = 26
Lab 29 x 1/3 = 9.3
UKIP 16 x 9/10 = 14.2
LD 7 x 1/4 = 1.8
SNP 5 x 1/4 = 1.2
Grn 3 x 1/3 = 1
Oth 1 x 1/2 = 0.5
Total 54.
UKIP might not get quite that high a proportion but then Labour might be higher. But even if it's only 80% of UKIP voters going Leave then if 2/3 of Tories do, that's still nearly 40% in the bag for Leave with nearly 45% of the electorate to go at.
The Love Actually actress was speaking at the Berlin Film Festival when she said a vote for an exit was a "crazy idea". She described living in "a tiny little cloud-bolted, rainy corner of sort-of Europe ... a cake-filled misery-laden grey old island"."
http://news.sky.com/story/1642973/thompson-branded-leftie-luvvie-over-eu-remark
If you're a very wealthy person living in Swankyville, migration's cool. It means the chap who does work on your house charges less.
If you're a tradesman, migration can mean you're undercut, or fear being undercut.
Who would have possibly forseen this?
Or is this missing the wood for the trees; the wood being that Trump is strolling towards the nomination?
Spectator tally of Tory MPs. In 86, Out 68, Not declared 176 https://t.co/pdbqd9ZIMm HT @realhansard
Consensus in room 7 is that there is no provision for a recount in event of a close result in EU referendum & a tie means UK stays in.
Exact vote tie?
I'm feeling generous. I'll lay 5/1 if you're interested?
Incidentally the ECJ has ruled against UN Security Council resolutions that had already been adopted by the Council of Europe (Kadi & Al Barakaat v. Council of the EU & EC Commission) because they conflict with the treaties, so legally binding political promises have no chance.
https://twitter.com/LettersDesk/status/698189915318779904
I'm surprised you haven't started yet, in a way. Do you think you might have already if the organisation hadn't been so poor?