On this week’s podcast Keiran discusses the initial BPC Polling Inquiry findings with Mike Smithson. Keiran explains some of the findings and why voting intention polls are not the same as public opinion polls. Mike argues that the polls being wrong shaped the General Election result and we discuss where polling goes from here and whether polling could face another crisis over the E.U.
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http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3410787/German-government-admits-account-600-000-1-1million-asylum-seekers-using-multiple-identities-travel-Europe.html
There was a particular car-crash interview with Kendall at some point during the leadership campaign where she was being quizzed about the economy, and floundered horribly when she was asked follow-up questions. She gave the distinct Sarah Palin-esque impression of just having memorised a few buzz phrases without actually understanding what she was saying.
EDIT: Found the interview; the cringeworthiness starts from 3:30:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ogeOqw4dTAA
What is bonkers, is two Iranians, same situation, not granted claim to asylum, this guy has. Doesn't seem like there is any consistency.
When the BBC overdubbed Gerry Adams with a 'middle class' Irish accent to get round the daft ban on 'hearing terrorists' he came across as reasonable. My opinion of him did not improve when finally we heard his real voice (which of course says more about me than him!)
At this stage it really would need a relatively "new face" to emerge from the pack to give Trump a run for his money.
The only conceivable candidate fitting this bill appears to be John Kasich, the Governor of Ohio, who is putting all his efforts into achieving a decent showing in New Hampshire, where some polls are showing him as being in second place.
Over recent days, his odds against winning the nomination have approximately halved from an average of around 75/1 to a present average of around 38.75/1 (SkyBet and Betfair go 40/1, Laddies 50/1 and Hills 25/1).
As ever, timing is all important here - were he indeed to finish second in NH, he'd then be likely to benefit from very considerable financial backing and his odds would probably reduce close to single figures. Finish 3rd or worse there and he's almost certainly out of the race altogether.
He's certainly a long shot, but then again he's still available at a long price.
It's probably worth waiting a while before investing any serious money on him, but a couple of quid at 50/1 might provide a bit of fun but DYOR.
An interesting podcast – hadn’t quite appreciated the wider ramification of the flawed polling which ultimately proved to be useless, it set the entire narrative in the lead up to the election for both media and academia pundits alike and made utter fools of them all. – Unless there are some spectacularly accurate polling before 2020, I don’t think pollster will ever be taken as seriously again.
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-35350417
Hilarious article from Mark Mardell...apparently JJ interview with Marr wasn't bad at all, just one tiny slip up resulting in headline "mocking his naivety".
On the subject of Mr. Litvinenko, the Russian-born Mrs Sandpit says that of course Putin did it - the guy was a traitor to Russia for working with MI6, and the mother country wanted to dispatch him in a way that would attract headlines and ensure that the next traitor thought twice about it!!
I'm not bothering with Cruz.
Mind you, credible Labour figures on the economy are rare.
You get the impression that Leave are standing fairly idly by until some unidentified cabinet member is gracious enough to come along to lead them. The problem is that the longer this state of affairs persist the worse a career choice that looks. If Grayling or IDS is the best they end up doing winning the referendum will be almost impossible.
It's a really disappointing state of affairs.
What is urgently needed is a winnowing of this large, unwieldy and fairly talentless field so the more rational part of the party can focus on a single candidate. As long as they jump from one to another with ever decreasing intervals Trump will continue to dominate and may well become unassailable.
The Republican leadership should focus on getting as many as possible of the no hopers out of the way as fast as possible.
To launch a missile, the submarine need to be at shallow depth, stable and at very slow speed (essentially none) - this is described as "hovering". To do that requires that engine room crew control the reactor at very low power settings (hard), the crew on the planes keep the boat exactly level, the diving officer (and crew) hold the submarine at the right depth with the hovering system ( special adjunct to the ballast tanks).
Then you need to power up the missiles. You don't just turn them on like a light. There is a specific warm up process. Another set of crew members do that. Then loading the guidance program, setting up the launch computers on the sub.. After that you have setting up the compressed air system to blow the missiles out of their tubes - lining up all the valves in that system is not trivial. etc etc.
Coming up later on PB: Henry G Manson with his next LAB leader tips
A point about ukip, some of the candidates are of dreadfully low quality hence the poor re-election rate, I'm not sure if the party has the resources or wherewithal to improve the standard.
The situation in Thanet is beyond ridiculous, some of the people around Nigel during the campaign were a total embarrassment.
No one has denied what Litvinenko did for a living, the issue is the use of a radiological weapon by a foreign power on British soil.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/12114028/Davos-World-leaders-need-to-stop-talking-about-reform-and-start-doing-it-says-George-Osborne.html
"Scotland is considering whether to add folic acid to flour as concern mounts that there could be an increase in birth defects while the Westminster government delays a decision."
At least one Government has two brain cells to rub together. It really is unbelievable that we've sat on our hands for so long. I came across a few minutes on the BBC Parliament programme when it was still being discussed. I thought they'd done it years ago when all the other grown-up Governments had gone ahead.
It's not a nasty chemical - it's an essential part of any diet and the link with NTDs has been known for decades.
Because, in shock news to some here on PB (good morning @Charles, @Plato_Says), police interviewing a family because of a seeming spelling mistake in isolation, whatever it was,
...WOULD BE RIDICULOUS.
It must be a Kipper thing, since Putin is the world leader Farage most admires. Presumably that makes him an 'untouchable'.
The Chancellor will tell business leaders at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, that the worst financial carnage to hit markets in more than four decades should be a catalyst for action to cushion countries from further shocks.
“2016 has been the worst start to a year for the financial markets in my lifetime,” he will say. “And I’m not so young anymore.”
Either our esteemed Chancellor has amnesia or the Telegraph missed his qualification about the start of the year.
Self serving bureaucrats can see the end to the gravy train if we vote to Leave. Apparently it will mean the end of European civilisation.
I thought it was Leave that were full of hyperbole and misinformation.
Let's be frank, Putin is no angel, but he has Russia's best interests at heart, we pussyfoot foot around so many issues.
Not likely to feature on the front bench for a while though. She was good last night on the TW couch.
Russia considered one of their spies to be a traitor, they killed him, I've no idea why this is even news.
'senior lawyers form pro-EU group'
This should really help the EU cause
I notice the Vatican weighed in on this topic recently as well...
The Institute of Food Research says no adverse effects have been reported with consumption of high amounts of food folates but there are concerns regarding the safety of prolonged high intakes (> 5 mg per day) of folic acid.
It says evidence emerging from the US and Canada, where folic acid fortification has been carried out for the last 10 years, suggests too much folic acid can lead to changes in the immune system, blockage of coronary stents, and an increased rate of cognitive decline in the elderly, particularly in those who have low B12 levels.
Other potential problems include an increased risk of reproductive and developmental abnormalities, promotion of DNA replication which may increase the risk of existing cancers progressing, and reduced intestinal zinc absorption. However, it acknowledges that many of these risks are theoretical or have yet to be demonstrated conclusively.
The Department of Health says it will reach a decision on whether or not to add folic acid to white flour/bread in the light of new data from the ongoing National Diet and Nutrition Survey
http://www.webmd.boots.com/pregnancy/news/20140217/should-folic-acid-be-added-to-bread?page=2
When was the trial?
Who is this 'Mike Smithson' fellow?
I'm ambivalent towards Putin as I am most world leaders, however I absolutely respect countries that deal with traitors.
I'm sure you'll be able to explain that Litivinenko was a decent, caring family man just doing his job and that Putin ordered his execution after a bad day killing bears.
Chakrabarti is standing down from Liberty, get your CV in and make a placard to wave in Red Square.
And I presumably if a senior ISIS person defected to the UK, we wouldn't defend the right of ISIS to have him poisoned on Brick Lane.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/davos/12113163/Davos-leaders-fear-Brexit-may-be-deathknell-for-EU.html
Does anyone else think this is just ramping up the pressure prior to a vote? If we vote to remain, it'll be business as usual with the UK stuck on the sidelines, bending over to be shafted again and again, with no hope for a change. Anyone see the similarity with 1984? 'A boot stamping on a face for all eternity'!
Here's what you wrote:
"I don't understand the outrage here. The child wrote something worrying and it needed to be checked out."
The point being that if it had just been that isolated incident, that was reported straight to the police, it would indeed have been outrageous.
Of course you're not really, it's this ridiculous faux outrage that has seeped into society. Go and do something worthwhile with your time instead of pretending to give a toss about a Russian double agent. Perhaps you could attend a training course on virtue signalling.
So its not just on radiological poisoning (and spreading a trail across London & Hamburg) that you and Mr Putin are as one.
Do you enjoy kissing little boy's tummies too?
This Putin and Russia for heavens sake, you're acting as if a Boy Scout was caught pinching a Wagon Wheel.
I'm genuinely chuckling at some of the handwringing tosh I'm reading on here this morning. Look, Putin is a nut job but he's not our nut job, surely you have more self satisfying topics to wring your hands about?
Get yourself down to the local soup kitchen and do some good instead of pretending to give a toss that a spy was killed. Alternatively imagine that James Bond is a real person.
"However, it acknowledges that many of these risks are theoretical or have yet to be demonstrated conclusively."
Paracelus nailed it centuries ago - the dose makes the poison. Everything is toxic, including water and oxygen in too high a concentration. The plan is to fortify bread in a very low dose.
Some child has died from scurvy in Wales. If seen by a GP, the cure is rapid, even if ascorbic acid,(like everything else), is toxic in very high doses.
But a child whose mother had low folate levels is already dead, or in a wheelchair, and can't be supplemented with folic acid. It's too late then. And there are such children.
Re folic acid, I always thought it was added to bread years ago, and breakfast cereals too. Have things changed or was I mistaken?
I'm really not sure what the story is here. Teachers had a duty of care. They acted on it. Sensible.
https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/690449938061344769
So where were you when poor Litivinenko was bumped off? Probably complaining about police cuts because all the Met had been diverted to protect Russian spies.
This place is like Fantasy Island.
It is more nuanced. For example, Doctors will be more trusted about an individual's health than on alcohol limits, or politics...
The only thing that wil have annoyed Russia about the whole thing was that the British worked out the source so quickly as their guys were more than a little careless.
They would have quite liked the idea of the radioactive BA plane flying around for a while though, tying up a lot of effort in finding several hundred people a day that might have come into contact with it.
Free speech in University now seems to be, you can say what you like, as long as we agree. https://t.co/AOgsJANxb3 https://t.co/zh0nqrtqCi
This @timesredbox survey shows the in-built doctors advantage doctors have when it comes to rows with politicians. https://t.co/e0kt6PfOjE
In a minute the same people will be complaining that Albanian gangs operating in London aren't always nice to each other.
Apologies for the grumpiness.
I spent many years in drug development (toxicology). We used massive doses not to show a drug was safe but to identify where the toxicity was likely to be. Everything is toxic, and the more 'natural' ones are the most toxic.
We will eventually follow most of the more sensible nations in supplementing but we need a few more casualties first. Sad but true.
Things other countries do affect our country. Doubly so in this case as it happened in our country. By all means don't care that it happened or even that it is ok that it happened, but if someone is concerned that is perfectly legitimate. That you dismiss people taking an interest ina purported murder by a foreign power in our streets on the grounds Putin is not our problem as tosh speaks volumes.
I give you 5 minutes or 2 posts before you demonstrate you are interested In something that could just as easily be described AC not our problem.
People witter on about things I don't care about all the time, and obviously I do too. Do you think you alone are unique and only mention items of import to all?
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2015/11/16/why-jeremy-hunt-might-be-onto-a-loser-in-his-fight-with-the-doctors/
Do you believe what conservative politicians say?
The answer would be a resounding 100%
It just goes to show you can't trust pollsters (winky emoticon)
Was he threatening to behead Russians or bomb Russia?