He is strangely missing on the web. Nothing much comes up for his name. I am suspicious.
Something is very iffy about the account. He has gone by the names Dominic and Darren Grintz and had his twitter previously banned and given out home addresses of people he has had spats with, including a 15 year old kid.
We got turnout down to sub 20 at a similar point last time around.
A week or so ago on here I suggested turnout would be at the 20% mark. I don't want it to go much below though - I want Lucy Powell to keep the post-war record at 18-odd%
What's special about Lucy's by-election is that the low turnout couldn't really be blamed on 'lack of people to vote for / they're all the same' - 12 candidates and none of them could persuade people to vote for them! :-)
300 votes for the pirates
Knew that comment was a hostage to fortune... still beat 5 other parties and came top of the 'minors'.
@dugarbandier I'm not saying Blair didn't taint his own legacy (far from it) but the Left were always looking for the cracks in New Labour to justify a return the 1980s.
Alastair Campbell @campbellclaret 6m6 minutes ago At least the Cybernats tend to abuse their opponents. The new Corbynistas seem to save all their venom for people in same party (sic)
He is strangely missing on the web. Nothing much comes up for his name. I am suspicious.
Something is iffy about him. He has gone by the names Dominic and Darren Grintz and had his twitter previously banned and given out home addresses of people he has had spats with, including a 15 year old kid.
It seems there is a large number of people who are blissfully unaware of the outcome of said election.
It is remarkable watching the first 10 minutes how the only caveats for the exit poll given were on the down side for the Tories, no upside potential even considered!
'Ed Milliband take a bow. The man who changed the rules, and broke the Labour Party.'
Not entirely fair – not even Ed could have predicted the stupidity of Ma Beckett & Co.
Oh I think it's fair, given the history of entryism into the Labour party, and the history of having a loon on the ballot "for balance". Did Ed also come up with the £3 wheeze, or does he have to share the Darwin Award for Politics with someone else?
Since regular members voted for Corbyn anyway, it hardly matters.
Had it not been for the momentum the £3 members gave he almost certainly would not have.
Besides entryists had months before the deadline to sign up to vote. Sane parties require the members to have signed up BEFORE the election not during it.
It seems there is a large number of people who are blissfully unaware of the outcome of said election.
It is remarkable watching the first 10 minutes how the only caveats for the exit poll given were on the down side for the Tories, no upside potential even considered!
Some of us were very glad that state of mind persisted for so long. It gave us time to frantically reorganise our betting positions.
"It is remarkable watching the first 10 minutes how the only caveats for the exit poll given were on the down side for the Tories, no upside potential even considered!"
TBF to the academic running the exit poll, he was hinting that a majority was on from the first time he was on screen.
He is strangely missing on the web. Nothing much comes up for his name. I am suspicious.
Something is iffy about him. He has gone by the names Dominic and Darren Grintz and had his twitter previously banned and given out home addresses of people he has had spats with, including a 15 year old kid.
I bit of a google would suggest the media would be very wise not to take anything about this guy at face value....Long history of trolling people like Tommy Robinson in lots of different guises.
One wonders how anyone survives outside the EU facing such hardships as they do.
For those countries like us who are right next to the EU and who rely heavily on trade with it, mostly by negotiating a trade deal which includes free movement of labour.
We got turnout down to sub 20 at a similar point last time around.
A week or so ago on here I suggested turnout would be at the 20% mark. I don't want it to go much below though - I want Lucy Powell to keep the post-war record at 18-odd%
... the 500 from 2700 is in the ballpark I'm expecting.
"It is remarkable watching the first 10 minutes how the only caveats for the exit poll given were on the down side for the Tories, no upside potential even considered!"
TBF to the academic running the exit poll, he was hinting that a majority was on from the first time he was on screen.
Didn't get that far. I was thinking more of what Nick and Vine twittered on about. And yes, on the night I was struck by how the pollster kept on saying that it could be a Con maj.
One wonders how anyone survives outside the EU facing such hardships as they do.
For those countries like us who are right next to the EU and who rely heavily on trade with it, mostly by negotiating a trade deal which includes free movement of labour.
'Ed Milliband take a bow. The man who changed the rules, and broke the Labour Party.'
Not entirely fair – not even Ed could have predicted the stupidity of Ma Beckett & Co.
Oh I think it's fair, given the history of entryism into the Labour party, and the history of having a loon on the ballot "for balance". Did Ed also come up with the £3 wheeze, or does he have to share the Darwin Award for Politics with someone else?
Since regular members voted for Corbyn anyway, it hardly matters.
Had it not been for the momentum the £3 members gave he almost certainly would not have.
Besides entryists had months before the deadline to sign up to vote. Sane parties require the members to have signed up BEFORE the election not during it.
Which Labour do with parliamentary selections, but stupidly not leadership.
I blame Ray Collins more than Miliband. what old school trade unionist wouldn't have noticed that the next leadership election could take place at the same time as two of the three big unions had General Secretary elections, thus guaranteeing maximum beserkering from them. Wouldn't have happened on Ken Jackson's watch.
We got turnout down to sub 20 at a similar point last time around.
A week or so ago on here I suggested turnout would be at the 20% mark. I don't want it to go much below though - I want Lucy Powell to keep the post-war record at 18-odd%
... the 500 from 2700 is in the ballpark I'm expecting.
Shame there's 4 hours of after-work voting left then
Although I'm not sure employment in Oldham is particularly high.
That's wrong, actually, but in any case irrelevant. Everyone agrees that there's not a snowflake's chance in hell of either side wanting a relationship which wouldn't include us being part of the Single Market for manufactured goods (and of course subject to EU rules on products and VAT as a result). That isn't what we'd be negotiating over, since both sides would agree to it straight away.
If it is proven to be terrorism, I wonder if this might push Trump over the line.
It would be the biggest terror attack on the US homeland since 9/11
It's a very odd target for a terrorist attack, though.
Perhaps they were planning on staging an attack somewhere else, but the red mist of anger descended and the office party became a new target?
Possibly, yes. Or maybe they were freelancers acting on their own initiative rather than directly controlled by some organisation. That is one of the most difficult scenarios for the security services.
That's wrong, actually, but in any case irrelevant. Everyone agrees that there's not a snowflake's chance in hell of either side wanting a relationship which wouldn't include us being part of the Single Market for manufactured goods (and of course subject to EU rules on products and VAT as a result). That isn't what we'd be negotiating over, since both sides would agree to it straight away.
Mr Nabavi said "That's wrong, actually, but in any case irrelevant. Everyone agrees that there's not a snowflake's chance in hell of either side wanting a relationship which wouldn't include us being part of the Single Market for manufactured goods (and of course subject to EU rules on products and VAT as a result). That isn't what we'd be negotiating over, since both sides would agree to it straight away."
crucial part of that is "subject to EU rules". In other words, all those kippers thinking they could junk everything and go back to imperial measurements or whatever it is they want are completely deluded. We would be subject to the same rules but have no ability to change them as we wouldn't be a member. Which is why Norway advises us not to do what they did http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/oct/27/norway-eu-reality-uk-voters-seduced-by-norwegian-model
If it is proven to be terrorism, I wonder if this might push Trump over the line.
It would be the biggest terror attack on the US homeland since 9/11
It's a very odd target for a terrorist attack, though.
Perhaps they were planning on staging an attack somewhere else, but the red mist of anger descended and the office party became a new target?
Possibly, yes. Or maybe they were freelancers acting on their own initiative rather than directly controlled by some organisation. That is one of the most difficult scenarios for the security services.
Last night ISIS or whatever we are meant to call them said they were not responsible but welcomed the attack
I didn't post it as it was late and I didn't want to argue / isn't in my interests to cause trouble with the people saying it was white supremacists
These kind of attacks are the ones I fear now we are bombing Syria or at least the anger it stokes up within parts of the muslim population. Obviously ISIS we're going to try and bomb us anyway
That's wrong, actually, but in any case irrelevant. Everyone agrees that there's not a snowflake's chance in hell of either side wanting a relationship which wouldn't include us being part of the Single Market for manufactured goods (and of course subject to EU rules on products and VAT as a result). That isn't what we'd be negotiating over, since both sides would agree to it straight away.
I'm not wrong, more to the point why mention it anyway if your second point is correct?
Last night ISIS or whatever we are meant to call them said they were not responsible but welcomed the attack
I didn't post it as it was late and I didn't want to argue / isn't in my interests to cause trouble with the people saying it was white supremacists
These kind of attacks are the ones I fear now we are bombing Syria or at least the anger it stokes up within parts of the muslim population. Obviously ISIS we're going to try and bomb us anyway
If we weren't dealing with ISIS in Syria, they'd find some other pretext.
LOL If you think the Cameron Tories are hard right, come spend some time in the States. They are all socialists, didn't you know?
The Democrats are so far to the right that the GOP is being forced into taking loony positions for oppositions sake, all the while being fuelled by a rabid (and highly profitable) toxic right-wing media circus which has taken hold in lieu of any real party leadership. The current GOP situation has been decades in the making, going all the way back to the Southern strategy, with their base long being a delicate coalition of people with very disparate interests which is slowly exploding on them.
Couple that with the US having an utterly dysfunctional political system (the fun combination of mass gerrymandering, the electoral college and filibustering), and the Democrats being legislatively uninspiring, dysfunctional and overly-willing-to-compromise "moderates".
All that said, I can still see the GOP winning the presidential election, assuming they end up selecting someone like Rubio. I think Democrats are taking victory for granted and, contrary to popular belief, I don't think Hillary Clinton is a strong candidate, with too much baggage associated with her.
A new Quinnipiac national poll this week has not only Hillary but also Bernie Sanders beating the entire GOP top tier and his politics are not a million miles from Corbyn's
If the attack in the USA turns out to be a terrorist attack - and I think it probably is - then it will be interesting to see the reaction. Thankfully gun attacks are rare in the UK - though they do happen - so a terrorist attack would be out of the norm. But given the number of mass killings in the US it will be interesting to see how they react.
Mr Nabavi said "That's wrong, actually, but in any case irrelevant. Everyone agrees that there's not a snowflake's chance in hell of either side wanting a relationship which wouldn't include us being part of the Single Market for manufactured goods (and of course subject to EU rules on products and VAT as a result). That isn't what we'd be negotiating over, since both sides would agree to it straight away."
crucial part of that is "subject to EU rules". In other words, all those kippers thinking they could junk everything and go back to imperial measurements or whatever it is they want are completely deluded. We would be subject to the same rules but have no ability to change them as we wouldn't be a member. Which is why Norway advises us not to do what they did http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/oct/27/norway-eu-reality-uk-voters-seduced-by-norwegian-model
Mr Nabavi said "That's wrong, actually, but in any case irrelevant. Everyone agrees that there's not a snowflake's chance in hell of either side wanting a relationship which wouldn't include us being part of the Single Market for manufactured goods (and of course subject to EU rules on products and VAT as a result). That isn't what we'd be negotiating over, since both sides would agree to it straight away."
crucial part of that is "subject to EU rules". In other words, all those kippers thinking they could junk everything and go back to imperial measurements or whatever it is they want are completely deluded. We would be subject to the same rules but have no ability to change them as we wouldn't be a member. Which is why Norway advises us not to do what they did http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/oct/27/norway-eu-reality-uk-voters-seduced-by-norwegian-model
You do understand where many EU rules start life at? The little European Unioner mindstet may have been acceptable 50 years ago but the world has moved on whilst the EU has remained stuck in the past.
Raging Europhile Norwegian politicians are perhaps not the best example. The latest opinion poll has the Norwegian people rejecting EU membership by a huge margin.
As for the immigration argument, isn't the truth that Cameron doesn't really care that much about the numbers? It's not an outrageous viewpoint, many people don't, and fair enough. But as leader of the opposition Conservative party, he had to say he would get numbers down to firm up votes.
Again fair enough. The fact that immigration is at its highest ever and Cameron has been PM over five years renders discussion as to why meaningless. He'll be an ex pm in three years or so and will never have made good on the pledge. He wins!
The answer is obvious. If he really wanted to cut it down, if there was some weird phenomenon that meant if he didn't we'd all die, he'd get them down. It's not impossible, it's just unimportant
Turmout at a OW&R polling station said to be 500 out of 2,700 at 4:30pm.
Are you able to say which part of the constituency that's in? (East vs west?)
Yes, a polling station in Medlock Vale ward in the SW of the constituency where about 90% of voters were Asian (mainly Pakistani). I was there in person getting the information. About to head back to Manchester. Just light rain in Oldham at the moment rather than the heavy that was forecast.
18:18 - Nigel Farage isn't too confident about the postal votes, Laura Hughes reports.
Speaking in UKIP's Royton headquarters, Nigel Farage told journalists: "If this was taking place today in one of dozens of other constituencies in the north of England we would have won it comfortably.
"The reason it's close and the reason I can't be confident about the postal votes is because in this constituency there is a particular block vote that is a very difficult demographic for UKIP."
Asked on where he he was referring to Asians voters as this "block vote", he said: "I'm going to say nothing because otherwise you'll all scream at me."
18:18 - Nigel Farage isn't too confident about the postal votes, Laura Hughes reports.
Speaking in UKIP's Royton headquarters, Nigel Farage told journalists: "If this was taking place today in one of dozens of other constituencies in the north of England we would have won it comfortably.
"The reason it's close and the reason I can't be confident about the postal votes is because in this constituency there is a particular block vote that is a very difficult demographic for UKIP."
Asked on where he he was referring to Asians voters as this "block vote", he said: "I'm going to say nothing because otherwise you'll all scream at me."
Turmout at a OW&R polling station said to be 500 out of 2,700 at 4:30pm.
Are you able to say which part of the constituency that's in? (East vs west?)
Yes, a polling station in Medlock Vale ward in the SW of the constituency where about 90% of voters were Asian (mainly Pakistani). I was there in person getting the information. About to head back to Manchester. Just light rain in Oldham at the moment rather than the heavy that was forecast.
18:18 - Nigel Farage isn't too confident about the postal votes, Laura Hughes reports.
Speaking in UKIP's Royton headquarters, Nigel Farage told journalists: "If this was taking place today in one of dozens of other constituencies in the north of England we would have won it comfortably.
"The reason it's close and the reason I can't be confident about the postal votes is because in this constituency there is a particular block vote that is a very difficult demographic for UKIP."
Asked on where he he was referring to Asians voters as this "block vote", he said: "I'm going to say nothing because otherwise you'll all scream at me."
18:18 - Nigel Farage isn't too confident about the postal votes, Laura Hughes reports.
Speaking in UKIP's Royton headquarters, Nigel Farage told journalists: "If this was taking place today in one of dozens of other constituencies in the north of England we would have won it comfortably.
"The reason it's close and the reason I can't be confident about the postal votes is because in this constituency there is a particular block vote that is a very difficult demographic for UKIP."
Asked on where he he was referring to Asians voters as this "block vote", he said: "I'm going to say nothing because otherwise you'll all scream at me."
18:18 - Nigel Farage isn't too confident about the postal votes, Laura Hughes reports.
Speaking in UKIP's Royton headquarters, Nigel Farage told journalists: "If this was taking place today in one of dozens of other constituencies in the north of England we would have won it comfortably.
"The reason it's close and the reason I can't be confident about the postal votes is because in this constituency there is a particular block vote that is a very difficult demographic for UKIP."
Asked on where he he was referring to Asians voters as this "block vote", he said: "I'm going to say nothing because otherwise you'll all scream at me."
If the Asian community have indeed got the block postal vote out then it's all over bar the weighing counting of the votes for Labour.
It's hardly a revelation, some of us predicted it as soon as the vote was announced. Credit to labour, they know who votes for them and they know how to get them to vote.
Mandelson et al will be raising a glass to the search parties they sent out.
@PolhomeEditor: BREAKING: Alex Salmond refuses to apologise for saying Tony Benn would be "birling in his grave" at his son Hilary's Syria speech.
Why should he apologise.
He's spot on the money. Tony Benn would be devastated to see his son vote to send British troops into harms way without any benefit from that action and the likely killing of plenty more civilians.
Hilary is a disgrace to his family name. He should be the first name on the Labour cull. They can't continue with a party filled with Red Tories. They know where that will take them, after all, Scotland will be fresh in their minds.
Does it pledge to admit 600000 to the UK with a net figure of 300000?
It doesn't pledge or advocate anything, but explores the figures and the choices. If you VanillaMail me your email address, I'll happily send you a copy.
I am sure your paper is jolly erudite and worth reading. Politically though the issue is quite simple and doesn't require too much study. Cameron said his government will reduce net immigration to below 100,000 pa. it is currently running at above 300,000 and the last set of figures showed an increase not a decrease.
There is performance and there are excuses. Cameron has failed and is failing to perform to the criteria he himself set.
I think this Government has taken all the measures it is willing to take on immigration. There are further steps that could be taken, but Osborne doesn't want it.
His latest thinking is to remove students from the figures on the basis they are temporary and all 'go home'.
That'd flatter the numbers but change nothing. So called "students" aren't like tourists.
If the attack in the USA turns out to be a terrorist attack - and I think it probably is - then it will be interesting to see the reaction. Thankfully gun attacks are rare in the UK - though they do happen - so a terrorist attack would be out of the norm. But given the number of mass killings in the US it will be interesting to see how they react.
A central plank of our airstrikes tactic is that it will inhibit people going to training camps in Iraq/Syria.
ofc no one in the US would need to go to a Middle-East training camp to learn weapons handling...
It seems there is a large number of people who are blissfully unaware of the outcome of said election.
It is remarkable watching the first 10 minutes how the only caveats for the exit poll given were on the down side for the Tories, no upside potential even considered!
I remember virtually shouting that at my TV. Who was it - Andrew Neil? - who said at one point "You may be wishing that poll was right before long"?
Ken livingstone has morphed from an engaging cheeky chappie to something quite sinister. He's almost unrecognizable from the popular ex mayor of London
It seems there is a large number of people who are blissfully unaware of the outcome of said election.
It is remarkable watching the first 10 minutes how the only caveats for the exit poll given were on the down side for the Tories, no upside potential even considered!
Some of us were very glad that state of mind persisted for so long. It gave us time to frantically reorganise our betting positions.
I imagine your Scottish betting position didn't need much frantic reorganisation!
FBI agents have discovered nearly 5,000 rounds of ammunition, a dozen pipe bombs and hundreds of tools for making improvised explosive devices at a home in California linked to San Bernardino gunman Syed Farook and his wife, law enforcement officials revealed this morning.
@PolhomeEditor: BREAKING: Alex Salmond refuses to apologise for saying Tony Benn would be "birling in his grave" at his son Hilary's Syria speech.
Why should he apologise.
He's spot on the money. Tony Benn would be devastated to see his son vote to send British troops into harms way without any benefit from that action and the likely killing of plenty more civilians.
Hilary is a disgrace to his family name. He should be the first name on the Labour cull. They can't continue with a party filled with Red Tories. They know where that will take them, after all, Scotland will be fresh in their minds.
@PolhomeEditor: BREAKING: Alex Salmond refuses to apologise for saying Tony Benn would be "birling in his grave" at his son Hilary's Syria speech.
Why should he apologise.
He's spot on the money. Tony Benn would be devastated to see his son vote to send British troops into harms way without any benefit from that action and the likely killing of plenty more civilians.
Hilary is a disgrace to his family name. He should be the first name on the Labour cull. They can't continue with a party filled with Red Tories. They know where that will take them, after all, Scotland will be fresh in their minds.
Your posts are very amusing at times, Dair.
To be fair we know that Eck has contact with the supernatural world.
FBI agents have discovered nearly 5,000 rounds of ammunition, a dozen pipe bombs and hundreds of tools for making improvised explosive devices at a home in California linked to San Bernardino gunman Syed Farook and his wife, law enforcement officials revealed this morning.
Telegraph claiming his new wife, the second shooter, had not long been brought into the US from Saudi Arabia.
The Simon Reeve program was a real eye opener about the state of Venezuela. I think he said something like he had never been to a country that was in such chaos.
And whose favourite go to talking head said this?
“Hugo Chavez was a democrat, not a dictator, and showed a progressive alternative to neo-liberalism is both possible and popular.”
FBI agents have discovered nearly 5,000 rounds of ammunition, a dozen pipe bombs and hundreds of tools for making improvised explosive devices at a home in California linked to San Bernardino gunman Syed Farook and his wife, law enforcement officials revealed this morning.
Telegraph claiming his new wife, the second shooter, had not long been brought into the US from Saudi Arabia.
Don't know if this site is biased (It has offices in tel aviv!) but its where I read last night that ISIS had welcomed the attacks, though said they weren't responsible
which rather begs the question why make the pledge if it is in effect impossible to honour?
It was a blunder, no doubt about it.
In mitigation, though, I don't think anyone expected the disparity between the Eurozone and the UK job markets to be so dramatic, and that has undoubtedly been a large part of the problem.
I also think it's a good long-term aim to get net migration down below 100,000 a year, so I don't favour abandoning the target. But we have to be realistic about the timescale.
Ken livingstone has morphed from an engaging cheeky chappie to something quite sinister. He's almost unrecognizable from the popular ex mayor of London
Some of us were immune to his cheeky chappie act.... Nasty piece of work.
We got turnout down to sub 20 at a similar point last time around.
A week or so ago on here I suggested turnout would be at the 20% mark. I don't want it to go much below though - I want Lucy Powell to keep the post-war record at 18-odd%
... the 500 from 2700 is in the ballpark I'm expecting.
Bur postal votes from that area would -presumably - be in addition!
@PolhomeEditor: BREAKING: Alex Salmond refuses to apologise for saying Tony Benn would be "birling in his grave" at his son Hilary's Syria speech.
Why should he apologise.
He's spot on the money. Tony Benn would be devastated to see his son vote to send British troops into harms way without any benefit from that action and the likely killing of plenty more civilians.
Hilary is a disgrace to his family name. He should be the first name on the Labour cull. They can't continue with a party filled with Red Tories. They know where that will take them, after all, Scotland will be fresh in their minds.
You now have that fine upstanding Englishman Stan Collymore as a member, you must be so proud.
@PolhomeEditor: BREAKING: Alex Salmond refuses to apologise for saying Tony Benn would be "birling in his grave" at his son Hilary's Syria speech.
Why should he apologise.
He's spot on the money. Tony Benn would be devastated to see his son vote to send British troops into harms way without any benefit from that action and the likely killing of plenty more civilians.
Hilary is a disgrace to his family name. He should be the first name on the Labour cull. They can't continue with a party filled with Red Tories. They know where that will take them, after all, Scotland will be fresh in their minds.
On the other hand, here's the impartial judgement of someone writing more than a year ago:
"One of the attractive aspects of Tony Benn’s intriguing, complex character was that he never demanded of his own family that they should be what used to be called Bennites. His son Hilary has consistently defended the Iraq war that Dad so furiously opposed. The old man was thrilled when his 18 year old granddaughter, Emily, was adopted as a Labour candidate, notwithstanding that she was arguably more Blairite than her Uncle Hilary."
Who to believe, Alex Salmond or someone who knew him personally for many years?
If the attack in the USA turns out to be a terrorist attack - and I think it probably is - then it will be interesting to see the reaction. Thankfully gun attacks are rare in the UK - though they do happen - so a terrorist attack would be out of the norm. But given the number of mass killings in the US it will be interesting to see how they react.
A central plank of our airstrikes tactic is that it will inhibit people going to training camps in Iraq/Syria.
ofc no one in the US would need to go to a Middle-East training camp to learn weapons handling...
Perhaps this is what's needed to get some action on weapons in the USA.
Ken livingstone has morphed from an engaging cheeky chappie to something quite sinister. He's almost unrecognizable from the popular ex mayor of London
He might also be responsible for gaffe of the day. Commenting on the Syria vote he said; 'Having a mandate doesn't mean to say you are going to be right.' Does he apply the same logic to his leader? Of course not!
The headteacher of a school linked to an alleged plot by Islamist hardliners to influence state schools ordered staff to remove children’s books containing pictures of pigs, an employment tribunal in Birmingham has heard.
Does it pledge to admit 600000 to the UK with a net figure of 300000?
It doesn't pledge or advocate anything, but explores the figures and the choices. If you VanillaMail me your email address, I'll happily send you a copy.
I am sure your paper is jolly erudite and worth reading. Politically though the issue is quite simple and doesn't require too much study. Cameron said his government will reduce net immigration to below 100,000 pa. it is currently running at above 300,000 and the last set of figures showed an increase not a decrease.
There is performance and there are excuses. Cameron has failed and is failing to perform to the criteria he himself set.
I think this Government has taken all the measures it is willing to take on immigration. There are further steps that could be taken, but Osborne doesn't want it.
His latest thinking is to remove students from the figures on the basis they are temporary and all 'go home'.
That'd flatter the numbers but change nothing. So called "students" aren't like tourists.
I think you are correct on all counts, Mr. Royale. Now where does that leave Cameron's promise and reputation?
Well, the promise is just another one discarded and in terms of his reputation it probably will not make that much difference. At least not on its own, but it could be added to the weight of evidence in a narrative if any party wanted to build such a narrative.
In the electoral paper, scissors and stone battle: organised community block vote by post in advance beats pissed-off, resentful and marginalised WWC men turning out on a cold rainy night when they could be down the pub. Particularly for low turnout and a half-decent candidate.
I'm on low turnout though and pleased that's looking good.
18:18 - Nigel Farage isn't too confident about the postal votes, Laura Hughes reports.
Speaking in UKIP's Royton headquarters, Nigel Farage told journalists: "If this was taking place today in one of dozens of other constituencies in the north of England we would have won it comfortably.
"The reason it's close and the reason I can't be confident about the postal votes is because in this constituency there is a particular block vote that is a very difficult demographic for UKIP."
Asked on where he he was referring to Asians voters as this "block vote", he said: "I'm going to say nothing because otherwise you'll all scream at me."
Ken livingstone has morphed from an engaging cheeky chappie to something quite sinister. He's almost unrecognizable from the popular ex mayor of London
He's bitter 'his' London rejected him twice after dominating its politics for over 30 years.
@PolhomeEditor: BREAKING: Alex Salmond refuses to apologise for saying Tony Benn would be "birling in his grave" at his son Hilary's Syria speech.
Why should he apologise.
He's spot on the money. Tony Benn would be devastated to see his son vote to send British troops into harms way without any benefit from that action and the likely killing of plenty more civilians.
Hilary is a disgrace to his family name. He should be the first name on the Labour cull. They can't continue with a party filled with Red Tories. They know where that will take them, after all, Scotland will be fresh in their minds.
On the other hand, here's the impartial judgement of someone writing more than a year ago:
"One of the attractive aspects of Tony Benn’s intriguing, complex character was that he never demanded of his own family that they should be what used to be called Bennites. His son Hilary has consistently defended the Iraq war that Dad so furiously opposed. The old man was thrilled when his 18 year old granddaughter, Emily, was adopted as a Labour candidate, notwithstanding that she was arguably more Blairite than her Uncle Hilary."
Who to believe, Alex Salmond or someone who knew him personally for many years?
It is perfectly consistent for someone to offer their offspring completely free reign in their life choices but still be disappointed at some of the choices they might make. There is a considerable difference between telling and hoping.
Either Benn's entire political life was one of hypocrisy and ideas he did not believe in or he would be disappointed that. while trying to persuade the public in general, he failed to even persuade his own son.
We got turnout down to sub 20 at a similar point last time around.
A week or so ago on here I suggested turnout would be at the 20% mark. I don't want it to go much below though - I want Lucy Powell to keep the post-war record at 18-odd%
... the 500 from 2700 is in the ballpark I'm expecting.
Bur postal votes from that area would -presumably - be in addition!
Ken livingstone has morphed from an engaging cheeky chappie to something quite sinister. He's almost unrecognizable from the popular ex mayor of London
Seems to me it's because his wing of the party has won control. He can allow true colours to come through.
He's not alone in having 'morphed', though. It was a surprise to me to find that our own Nick Palmer was still so very left-wing, after all these years as an MP in Mr Blair's & Mr Brown's governing party.
One wonders how many others have morphed similarly.
The news from America about the San Bernardino shootings seem to point to a home grown muslim terrorist incident, it will only exacerbate religious tensions between muslims and christians in America.
A few more of those and it might lead to a pogrom against muslims over there, but even this one will politically fuel Trump who has called for strict monitoring and regulations on muslims.
Domestically, turnout in Oldham looks about on the low range of my expectations which is 20%, the LD might be happy with that since a low turnout increases their chances of keeping their deposit.
Has our Roger changed sides? twitter.com/rog_ukip/status/672481633967218688
From his posts over the last few weeks, it's pretty much impossible to tell where Roger is now. It's like he's having a mental breakdown in real time on the forum.
@PolhomeEditor: BREAKING: Alex Salmond refuses to apologise for saying Tony Benn would be "birling in his grave" at his son Hilary's Syria speech.
Why should he apologise.
He's spot on the money. Tony Benn would be devastated to see his son vote to send British troops into harms way without any benefit from that action and the likely killing of plenty more civilians.
Hilary is a disgrace to his family name. He should be the first name on the Labour cull. They can't continue with a party filled with Red Tories. They know where that will take them, after all, Scotland will be fresh in their minds.
On the other hand, here's the impartial judgement of someone writing more than a year ago:
"One of the attractive aspects of Tony Benn’s intriguing, complex character was that he never demanded of his own family that they should be what used to be called Bennites. His son Hilary has consistently defended the Iraq war that Dad so furiously opposed. The old man was thrilled when his 18 year old granddaughter, Emily, was adopted as a Labour candidate, notwithstanding that she was arguably more Blairite than her Uncle Hilary."
Who to believe, Alex Salmond or someone who knew him personally for many years?
It is perfectly consistent for someone to offer their offspring completely free reign in their life choices but still be disappointed at some of the choices they might make. There is a considerable difference between telling and hoping.
Either Benn's entire political life was one of hypocrisy and ideas he did not believe in or he would be disappointed that. while trying to persuade the public in general, he failed to even persuade his own son.
Or, alternatively, Alex Salmond and you are odious cretins who presume to look into the souls of dead men to make cheap political points, failing to understand that there are human beings out there who accept and respect that decent people can come to different conclusions on the same facts.
In the electoral paper, scissors and stone battle: organised community block vote by post in advance beats pissed-off, resentful and marginalised WWC men turning out on a cold rainy night when they could be down the pub. Particularly for low turnout and a half-decent candidate.
I'm on low turnout though and pleased that's looking good.
It was a few days ago that I wrote here on PB on the competition thread:
@PolhomeEditor: BREAKING: Alex Salmond refuses to apologise for saying Tony Benn would be "birling in his grave" at his son Hilary's Syria speech.
Why should he apologise.
He's spot on the money. Tony Benn would be devastated to see his son vote to send British troops into harms way without any benefit from that action and the likely killing of plenty more civilians.
Hilary is a disgrace to his family name. He should be the first name on the Labour cull. They can't continue with a party filled with Red Tories. They know where that will take them, after all, Scotland will be fresh in their minds.
On the other hand, here's the impartial judgement of someone writing more than a year ago:
"One of the attractive aspects of Tony Benn’s intriguing, complex character was that he never demanded of his own family that they should be what used to be called Bennites. His son Hilary has consistently defended the Iraq war that Dad so furiously opposed. The old man was thrilled when his 18 year old granddaughter, Emily, was adopted as a Labour candidate, notwithstanding that she was arguably more Blairite than her Uncle Hilary."
Who to believe, Alex Salmond or someone who knew him personally for many years?
It is perfectly consistent for someone to offer their offspring completely free reign in their life choices but still be disappointed at some of the choices they might make. There is a considerable difference between telling and hoping.
Either Benn's entire political life was one of hypocrisy and ideas he did not believe in or he would be disappointed that. while trying to persuade the public in general, he failed to even persuade his own son.
Long walk from '[Tony Benn] would be disappointed' to 'Hilary is a disgrace to his family name', but entirely expected.
@PolhomeEditor: BREAKING: Alex Salmond refuses to apologise for saying Tony Benn would be "birling in his grave" at his son Hilary's Syria speech.
Why should he apologise.
He's spot on the money. Tony Benn would be devastated to see his son vote to send British troops into harms way without any benefit from that action and the likely killing of plenty more civilians.
Hilary is a disgrace to his family name. He should be the first name on the Labour cull. They can't continue with a party filled with Red Tories. They know where that will take them, after all, Scotland will be fresh in their minds.
On the other hand, here's the impartial judgement of someone writing more than a year ago:
"One of the attractive aspects of Tony Benn’s intriguing, complex character was that he never demanded of his own family that they should be what used to be called Bennites. His son Hilary has consistently defended the Iraq war that Dad so furiously opposed. The old man was thrilled when his 18 year old granddaughter, Emily, was adopted as a Labour candidate, notwithstanding that she was arguably more Blairite than her Uncle Hilary."
Who to believe, Alex Salmond or someone who knew him personally for many years?
It is perfectly consistent for someone to offer their offspring completely free reign in their life choices but still be disappointed at some of the choices they might make. There is a considerable difference between telling and hoping.
Either Benn's entire political life was one of hypocrisy and ideas he did not believe in or he would be disappointed that. while trying to persuade the public in general, he failed to even persuade his own son.
Or, alternatively, Alex Salmond and you are odious cretins who presume to look into the souls of dead men to make cheap political points, failing to understand that there are human beings out there who accept and respect that decent people can come to different conclusions on the same facts.
18:18 - Nigel Farage isn't too confident about the postal votes, Laura Hughes reports.
Speaking in UKIP's Royton headquarters, Nigel Farage told journalists: "If this was taking place today in one of dozens of other constituencies in the north of England we would have won it comfortably.
"The reason it's close and the reason I can't be confident about the postal votes is because in this constituency there is a particular block vote that is a very difficult demographic for UKIP."
Asked on where he he was referring to Asians voters as this "block vote", he said: "I'm going to say nothing because otherwise you'll all scream at me."
18:18 - Nigel Farage isn't too confident about the postal votes, Laura Hughes reports.
Speaking in UKIP's Royton headquarters, Nigel Farage told journalists: "If this was taking place today in one of dozens of other constituencies in the north of England we would have won it comfortably.
"The reason it's close and the reason I can't be confident about the postal votes is because in this constituency there is a particular block vote that is a very difficult demographic for UKIP."
Asked on where he he was referring to Asians voters as this "block vote", he said: "I'm going to say nothing because otherwise you'll all scream at me."
18:18 - Nigel Farage isn't too confident about the postal votes, Laura Hughes reports.
Speaking in UKIP's Royton headquarters, Nigel Farage told journalists: "If this was taking place today in one of dozens of other constituencies in the north of England we would have won it comfortably.
"The reason it's close and the reason I can't be confident about the postal votes is because in this constituency there is a particular block vote that is a very difficult demographic for UKIP."
Asked on where he he was referring to Asians voters as this "block vote", he said: "I'm going to say nothing because otherwise you'll all scream at me."
What is he wrong about? (other than assuming they'd have won comfortably in any other northern constituency)
Maybe just maybe if he was a tad less xenophobic that demographic wouldn't be so difficult for him.
Perhaps so. That doesn't make comments about a block vote inaccurate, even if one feels he and UKIP may add to one of the reasons that block vote exists.
Someone gave me a tape or CD of Tony Benn. He's much funnier than than I'd ever thought Infact there aren't many comedians on the circuit who can tell a better tale than him
18:18 - Nigel Farage isn't too confident about the postal votes, Laura Hughes reports.
Speaking in UKIP's Royton headquarters, Nigel Farage told journalists: "If this was taking place today in one of dozens of other constituencies in the north of England we would have won it comfortably.
"The reason it's close and the reason I can't be confident about the postal votes is because in this constituency there is a particular block vote that is a very difficult demographic for UKIP."
Asked on where he he was referring to Asians voters as this "block vote", he said: "I'm going to say nothing because otherwise you'll all scream at me."
Comments
@dugarbandier I'm not saying Blair didn't taint his own legacy (far from it) but the Left were always looking for the cracks in New Labour to justify a return the 1980s.
Alastair Campbell @campbellclaret 6m6 minutes ago
At least the Cybernats tend to abuse their opponents. The new Corbynistas seem to save all their venom for people in same party (sic)
Brexit Biscuit @HermanVRompuy Nov 8
@pinkperlz @Aidlin37 @Nigel_Farage This fool know as Grintz has many suspended accounts, eg @DGrintz @DominicGrintz_ @DominicGrintz
Besides entryists had months before the deadline to sign up to vote. Sane parties require the members to have signed up BEFORE the election not during it.
TBF to the academic running the exit poll, he was hinting that a majority was on from the first time he was on screen.
I blame Ray Collins more than Miliband. what old school trade unionist wouldn't have noticed that the next leadership election could take place at the same time as two of the three big unions had General Secretary elections, thus guaranteeing maximum beserkering from them. Wouldn't have happened on Ken Jackson's watch.
Although I'm not sure employment in Oldham is particularly high.
crucial part of that is "subject to EU rules". In other words, all those kippers thinking they could junk everything and go back to imperial measurements or whatever it is they want are completely deluded. We would be subject to the same rules but have no ability to change them as we wouldn't be a member. Which is why Norway advises us not to do what they did http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/oct/27/norway-eu-reality-uk-voters-seduced-by-norwegian-model
I didn't post it as it was late and I didn't want to argue / isn't in my interests to cause trouble with the people saying it was white supremacists
These kind of attacks are the ones I fear now we are bombing Syria or at least the anger it stokes up within parts of the muslim population. Obviously ISIS we're going to try and bomb us anyway
Infidel celebrating the birth of christ?
Breitbart has a nice snippet. Some of the people they attacked had earlier in the year planned a shower for their new baby.
Raging Europhile Norwegian politicians are perhaps not the best example. The latest opinion poll has the Norwegian people rejecting EU membership by a huge margin.
Again fair enough. The fact that immigration is at its highest ever and Cameron has been PM over five years renders discussion as to why meaningless. He'll be an ex pm in three years or so and will never have made good on the pledge. He wins!
The answer is obvious. If he really wanted to cut it down, if there was some weird phenomenon that meant if he didn't we'd all die, he'd get them down. It's not impossible, it's just unimportant
As always, Enoch puts it better than I could
http://youtu.be/A0t3BTAF0ns
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/SNP/12030871/Ex-footballer-Stan-Collymore-quits-Labour-and-joins-SNP-over-Syrian-air-strikes-vote.html?utm_campaign=Echobox&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Facebook
Speaking in UKIP's Royton headquarters, Nigel Farage told journalists: "If this was taking place today in one of dozens of other constituencies in the north of England we would have won it comfortably.
"The reason it's close and the reason I can't be confident about the postal votes is because in this constituency there is a particular block vote that is a very difficult demographic for UKIP."
Asked on where he he was referring to Asians voters as this "block vote", he said: "I'm going to say nothing because otherwise you'll all scream at me."
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2015/parliamentary-constituencies/oldham-west-and-royton/12031040/oldham-west-royton-by-election-results.html#update-20151203-1511
Mandelson et al will be raising a glass to the search parties they sent out.
He's spot on the money. Tony Benn would be devastated to see his son vote to send British troops into harms way without any benefit from that action and the likely killing of plenty more civilians.
Hilary is a disgrace to his family name. He should be the first name on the Labour cull. They can't continue with a party filled with Red Tories. They know where that will take them, after all, Scotland will be fresh in their minds.
His latest thinking is to remove students from the figures on the basis they are temporary and all 'go home'.
That'd flatter the numbers but change nothing. So called "students" aren't like tourists.
ofc no one in the US would need to go to a Middle-East training camp to learn weapons handling...
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-34983075
And whose favourite go to talking head said this?
“Hugo Chavez was a democrat, not a dictator, and showed a progressive alternative to neo-liberalism is both possible and popular.”
http://www.vocativ.com/news/256909/isis-san-bernardino-mass-shooting-america-burning/
http://blogs.independent.co.uk/2014/03/14/tony-benn-someones-friend-and-mentor/
"One of the attractive aspects of Tony Benn’s intriguing, complex character was that he never demanded of his own family that they should be what used to be called Bennites. His son Hilary has consistently defended the Iraq war that Dad so furiously opposed. The old man was thrilled when his 18 year old granddaughter, Emily, was adopted as a Labour candidate, notwithstanding that she was arguably more Blairite than her Uncle Hilary."
Who to believe, Alex Salmond or someone who knew him personally for many years?
http://www.theguardian.com/education/2015/dec/03/birmingham-school-headteacher-banned-pictures-of-pigs-court-hears
Well, the promise is just another one discarded and in terms of his reputation it probably will not make that much difference. At least not on its own, but it could be added to the weight of evidence in a narrative if any party wanted to build such a narrative.
In the electoral paper, scissors and stone battle: organised community block vote by post in advance beats pissed-off, resentful and marginalised WWC men turning out on a cold rainy night when they could be down the pub. Particularly for low turnout and a half-decent candidate.
I'm on low turnout though and pleased that's looking good.
@UKLabour doing very well with groups who do not vote explains @IpsosMORI Ben Page #ipsosmorilive
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CVUlbw4WsAAbhMW.jpg
"Hilary is a disgrace to his family name"
What a childish thing to say. Sort of comment I'd expect from a Tory..
I don't think he's ever gotten over that.
Either Benn's entire political life was one of hypocrisy and ideas he did not believe in or he would be disappointed that. while trying to persuade the public in general, he failed to even persuade his own son.
It'll be lowwwwwww
He's not alone in having 'morphed', though. It was a surprise to me to find that our own Nick Palmer was still so very left-wing, after all these years as an MP in Mr Blair's & Mr Brown's governing party.
One wonders how many others have morphed similarly.
https://twitter.com/MetroUK/status/672436651805814784
One idea to help with our housing problem.
A few more of those and it might lead to a pogrom against muslims over there, but even this one will politically fuel Trump who has called for strict monitoring and regulations on muslims.
Domestically, turnout in Oldham looks about on the low range of my expectations which is 20%, the LD might be happy with that since a low turnout increases their chances of keeping their deposit.
https://twitter.com/rog_ukip/status/672481633967218688
LAB 50
UKIP 30
Majority 2000 on a 20% Turnout.
https://twitter.com/PJMedia_com/status/672492498057478144