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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Walrun Phil says the Syria vote could decide the LAB succes
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Walrun Phil says the Syria vote could decide the LAB succession
As the odds on Hilary Benn succeeding Jeremy Corbyn shorten, the political betting market is clear in its prediction – that the successor to Corbyn is very likely to be one of those who supported air strikes in yesterday’s vote. Almost all of those with the shortest odds come from that camp – Benn at 4/1, Jarvis 9/2 and Watson 9/1.
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What's the line again? Rushed in?
"Chat shit, get banged"
Betfair lays:
Dan Jarvis 5.75 £14.25 £67.73
David Miliband 14.74 £9.72 £133.58
Hilary Benn 4.92 £29.61 £116.21
Interesting article, Mr. Phil. Starmer was right behind Alan Johnson when the latter attacked Corbyn, and Starmer had a very serious/humourless expression on his face. Not convinced Starmer would be a sensible option (less bonkers than Corbyn, but still very leftish, perhaps).
As regards Keir Starmer specifically, the logic is good.
I also can't see Labour being comfortable with a Knight as leader. Doesn't really resonate well with some of their core supporters.
It may well be Benn is not interested in becoming leader.
Like this guy...
@AdamBienkov: Alex Salmond says Hilary Benn's dad "would have been birling in his grave" if he heard his son's speech last night #lbc
When the by election was announced, no one on here, including Antifrank, Richard Nabavi, Tissue Price, Pong, Pulpstar, ie the well regarded betting thinkers, as well as myself, thought it would be anything other than an easy Labour win
As it stands the opinion poll (Westminster VI) ratings for Labour and UKIP are around the same level as they were when Labour won by 33% in May. There should be no real reason to ecpect anything other than a comfy Labour win
The problem is, in a fragile betting market the outsider has been backed and the favourite was unsteady, and people will use the fact that UKIP went 8/1>3/1 as an excuse to brand it a big failure if they don't almost win
The hard left go to line
Hmmm Yes. But its his supporters who are going round trying to nail opponents to a cross
Well done to him.
Did you see Newsnight yesterday? The piece on High Wycombe was quite astonishing
In a by-election voters tend 'make a statement' and here they have a chance to vote against Corbyn at no cost. In order to do so they'll need to vote UKIP. So the result will tell us how much Corbyn is disliked rather than how much UKIP is liked.
On topic, at least this time when Starmer is mentioned it might be a bit more credible than when he was touted days after being elected!
https://twitter.com/farhia_x/status/672205483613229056
I hope that John McDonnell can show the police the details of that threat made to him as well.
I did the little competition using vote transfer charts for each section of the electorate. As long as Labour vote holds up reasonably well and turnout doesn't reduce by more than about 25-30% within Asian and the smallish urban liberal voter subsets, then UKIP still need to outpoll Labour by somewhere around 2.5:1 amongst the WWC (whose turnout may reduce a little more) to get close. I had them getting to somewhere slightly over 2:1 (from 3:4 at GE15) in my transfers and that still resulted in a Labour majority approaching 10% or 3000+.
I'm not saying I'm right, but doing that work brought home again the scale of the UKIP task here (scale of Labour disaster needed). I was never really on the page of considering the 5/2 (?) as a UKIP value bet.
The young Asian guy on Newsnight interviewed friends of the two men that had gone to fight for IS. In general the muslims there were against airstrikes and also against the ideology of IS to be fair. I was just shocked about the Bin Laden mural really
As it stands, the "middle" seems to be more like 0-10 and I lose unless UKIP win or Lab win by 16+ #shrewd
Watching the Daily Politics and talk of crowds of planes overhead really brings it home
But I think he will nominate his successor to his member supporters who will thererfore have a big advantage. That person I think will be Lisa Nandy who voted against the government last night, is centre left, bright and a good media performer, no baggage. And I think her competition will be Hilary Benn.
I don't believe that the Corbyn party members supporters are all swayed by Corbyn's particular policies. I think there was a reaction against the milk and water centrist positioning of Corbyn's three opponents and the refreshing contrast that Corbyn provided. Benn could provide that too with his moral clarity and oratory and so appeal to some of his Corbyn's supporters as the gloss comes off Corbyn. So Benn could beat Nandy in spite of Corbyn's support for Nandy.
I'm on both. Having backed Benn at 31s and laid some at 4s I'm healthily green across the board.
PS
Where is the stress for Corbyn? He has massive support within the left dominated membership. What does he care for the parliamentary party?
It is the lesson of history. Those who are disloyal to their party leader may bring them down but they don't succeed them due to their disloyalty.
#Talent
Immigration; immigration; immigration !
Of the candidates likely to throw their hat into the ring to succeed Corbyn - Watson, Benn, Starmer, Jarvis, maybe Umunna* - Starmer looks to have a good shot at balancing out the competing factions.
*Where are the women?
@daily_politics: Socialist Party will urge Labour Party members to demand mandatory re-selection, says @NancyTaaffe #bbcdp
@daily_politics: "We don’t want them in the Labour Party" says @JohnMannMP to @NancyTaaffe #bbcdp
@politicshome: Socialist party candidate: Stella Creasy threats "a warning to people like John Mann who are sitting comfortable on their nice MP salaries".
It is an extraordinary medium for people who wish to make an amaurotic cyclops look to be a binocular visionary. They will only look one way and countenance no other conceptual or factual position.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WFHHY34Mxno
Oh and on the 'Wedgie' Benn front --- he became plain Tony Benn when he changed his Who's Who entry and his name in his desire to ditch his patrician side and become more proletarian if not plebian.
Hence no more Anthony and Wedgewood ('Wedgie')
General Election 2015: Walthamstow [7][8]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Labour Co-op Stella Creasy 28,779 68.9 +17.0
TUSC Nancy Taaffe_______ 394 0.9 +0.3
http://www.lawgazette.co.uk/law/breaking-gove-scraps-criminal-courts-charge/5052566.article
1) The Labour electorate are decidedly against bombing in Syria and for a fair chunk of members this is a vote-changing matter in any leadership election.
2) The Labour electorate's hearts are on the left.
3) They are not all or even mainly Militant entryists. They are open to supporting any candidate with a clear and positive prospectus. They have not been offered one by any Labour politician other than Jeremy Corbyn since the election. Hilary Benn did so yesterday, so it is possible.
4) Most of the short-priced candidates are ridiculously short. That in turn means that there is value in longer priced candidates.
Keir Starmer has a good name for this electorate and a decent back story. Whether that's enough, time will tell. He's probably fair value at 16/1.
For myself, I still feel that the next leader will come from the decidedly left wing of the party. Jeremy Corbyn won't test the idea of a leftwing leader to destruction.
http://www.progressonline.org.uk/2015/11/27/an-open-letter-to-ken-livingstone/
Yeah, Stella Creasy throws gays off buildings. Rapes kids to death. Burns and crucifies and beheads. Of course she does....
Either this is a bizarre sense of humour at work that just passes me by. Or these people at the heart of Corbyn's Labour are deranged by hatred.
Legal challenge?? imagine a long run, snarling, bare knuckled battle through the courts between labour and UKIP.
Imagine evidence of dodgy election practices, mutual backscratching, shady deals emerging...
OOOhhh....
Even worse!!
Mind you Im not a fan of Creasy.. went on a date with a girl in the summer and didn't follow it up because she reminded me of her
Has there ever been a political opposition, ever, where the shadow chancellor likens the shadow Foreign secretary unto a war criminal.
Labour aren;t just not fit to govern. They are not fit to oppose.
Could Momentum be what undoes Corbyn? Can the PLP force him to publicly denounce them?
Turnout will be approx 40% so clearly if half of Labour GE voters won't vote Labour then that doesn't mean a loss.
Turnout down a third, voters down a third. Labour got 23,000 at GE.
Expect that to be halved - 12,000 at most.
GE turnout was approx 42,000. Expect 28,000 turnout.
Therefore likely Labour to poll 42%.
Everything I am hearing says UKIp can't get to 42%. That said, a third of people make their mind up on the day so who knows.
From a Tory prospective, we are looking for a 3.5% swing minimum. That would continue the average since GE across all election. And if continued, that would ensure a Tory London Mayor, More London Assembly Members, parity with Labour in Scotland and Labour to lose majority in Wales Assembly. If Labour share of vote is more than 27% higher than Tory then reds have done well. if lower, Tories happy.
''Nissan alliance with Renault under threat
The future of Britain’s largest car plant, Nissan in Sunderland, is under threat in an increasingly toxic row between the Japanese company and the French government.
More than 7,000 jobs are at risk, as well as hundreds more at Nissan’s design facilities in Paddington, central London, and its engineering centre in Cranfield, Bedfordshire, should Paris go ahead with plans to take control of more than 30 per cent of Renault.''
Seema Malhotra may be worth a few pennies at 66-1 Lads but as yet she only has a Timeform "P".May well end up in the Shadow Chancellor role should John McDonnell go the same way as Jeremy Corbyn,their futures are very much entwined.
My preferred bet in such ante-post markets is a dutch to reduce risk to capital.It is not compulsory to back only one horse in a race.
Or maybe there just haven't been any tweets about it worth reproducing here?
http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/syria-action-backed-under-independence-salmond-1-3071423#ixzz3tGLA2r28
To clarify - 'today' was 2/9/13......
https://t.co/GxBZUNcvHp
Yet the SNP say we don't.