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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The first litmus test Nuneaton is a Tory Hold with a 3% swi

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  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,234
    Just to make you all smile - just after Ed was elected leader I posted 'The only question is whether Ed wants to serve more than two terms' - woops!
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    Clucking bell. Con up 2%, Lab down 0.1% nationwide right now.
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    Kilmarnock - Worst ever GE result for LAB against an established party in terms of swing!

    That might change soon :lol:

  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,142
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    LDs not zero!

    10 more seats required if I am to take my family on holiday this summer...
    I'm rooting for you (though you'll forgive me, I hope, in wishing they are all LD holds vs Labour) - do the family know the holiday is at stake?! I tend to keep my bets to myself; unless I win, of course....

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,987
    UUP gain S Antrim from DUP
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    Paul Waugh retweeted
    Chris Mason ‏@ChrisMasonBBC 38s38 seconds ago
    Dudley North Tory candidate Les Jones tells the BBC he thinks he may unseat Labour's Ian Austin. #ge2015
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    We've long been expecting it in Scotland of course, but some of these swings are still insane to see in practice. SNP +30%, astounding.
  • Bob__SykesBob__Sykes Posts: 1,179
    Will Labour install Chukka as leader next then?

    Can't wait to see him rescue Labour in England and Scotland... (LOL)
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,150
    Lady Hermon holds North Down
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,987
    Ceredigion LD hold, Lady Hermon holds N Down
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,036
    This guy is having fun tonight!
    https://twitter.com/LibDemDeposits
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,032
    Will the UUP not take the tory whip? 1 closer rather than more difficult as the BBC claim.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,045
    Chameleon said:

    Clucking bell. Con up 2%, Lab down 0.1% nationwide right now.

    Is it now safe to say that we're "alright"? :D
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    LucyJones said:

    So, do the Tories amongst us still think this is a good election to lose?

    I did say that this was a good election to lose - I was almost immediately corrected :). However, the next government has some huge challenges to meet, and I'm still not convinced that any of our political class has the appetite to address them.
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Saltire said:

    Well there is 1 of the 10 for the Libdems.
    Followed by 1 of 58/59 for the SNP

    The exit poll had Ceredigion as a Plaid gain
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    currystar said:

    BenM said:

    Congratulations to the Conservatives. A majority is looking a good possibility now.

    An utter unmitigated disaster for Labour who'll be wracked by existential crisis and another leadership election. A left programme has been soundly repudiated. Labour needs another Blairite.

    This is a mandate for the Conservative programme which I wish well for the sake of the country.

    Still a great privilege to watch democracy in action. The people have spoken.

    A top post, I have liked your honesty and lack of complacency during the past weeks
    N1 Ben
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,504
    Has Danny Alexander taken refuge in Fort George?

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fort_George,_Scotland
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,844

    Will Labour install Chukka as leader next then?

    Can't wait to see him rescue Labour in England and Scotland... (LOL)

    Chukka's closet full of skeletons will make that impossible.
  • LucyJonesLucyJones Posts: 651
    currystar said:

    BenM said:

    Congratulations to the Conservatives. A majority is looking a good possibility now.

    An utter unmitigated disaster for Labour who'll be wracked by existential crisis and another leadership election. A left programme has been soundly repudiated. Labour needs another Blairite.

    This is a mandate for the Conservative programme which I wish well for the sake of the country.

    Still a great privilege to watch democracy in action. The people have spoken.

    A top post, I have liked your honesty and lack of complacency during the past weeks
    BenM has to be one of the most honest and decent posters on the site.

  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    1.7 Lab to Con swing atm.
  • Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    Western isles
    SNP 8k
    SNP hold
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669

    BenM said:

    Congratulations to the Conservatives. A majority is looking a good possibility now.

    An utter unmitigated disaster for Labour who'll be wracked by existential crisis and another leadership election. A left programme has been soundly repudiated. Labour needs another Blairite.

    This is a mandate for the Conservative programme which I wish well for the sake of the country.

    Still a great privilege to watch democracy in action. The people have spoken.

    A post that does you credit, sir.
    Hear Hear. That was very difficult and courageous for him to say.
  • ProdicusProdicus Posts: 658
    'Worst result for LAB since 1931' acc to some on Twitter. Well done, Ed.
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    Western Isle
    Tory 1215
    Christian 1045
    Lib Dem 456 OUCH
    SNP 8662
    Labour 4560
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    currystar said:

    BenM said:

    Congratulations to the Conservatives. A majority is looking a good possibility now.

    An utter unmitigated disaster for Labour who'll be wracked by existential crisis and another leadership election. A left programme has been soundly repudiated. Labour needs another Blairite.

    This is a mandate for the Conservative programme which I wish well for the sake of the country.

    Still a great privilege to watch democracy in action. The people have spoken.

    A top post, I have liked your honesty and lack of complacency during the past weeks
    Hear hear
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,780
    This could be the end of the union though.
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    Andy Burnham best option for Labour leader of, frankly, a bad bunch.
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,313
    Burnham appears close to tears
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,987
    SNP hold Western Isles
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @journodave: The Proclaimers should remix Letter from America. Murphy No More, Curran No More, Alexander No More, Bain No More, Jamieson No More...
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,656

    Saltire said:

    Well there is 1 of the 10 for the Libdems.
    Followed by 1 of 58/59 for the SNP

    The exit poll had Ceredigion as a Plaid gain
    It goes to show there's going to be a fair amount of variability in results.

    Full credit to you in predicting Ceridgion as a LibDem hold.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,142
    LucyJones said:

    currystar said:

    BenM said:

    Congratulations to the Conservatives. A majority is looking a good possibility now.

    An utter unmitigated disaster for Labour who'll be wracked by existential crisis and another leadership election. A left programme has been soundly repudiated. Labour needs another Blairite.

    This is a mandate for the Conservative programme which I wish well for the sake of the country.

    Still a great privilege to watch democracy in action. The people have spoken.

    A top post, I have liked your honesty and lack of complacency during the past weeks
    BenM has to be one of the most honest and decent posters on the site.

    Agreed. Well said BenM.

  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    LucyJones said:

    currystar said:

    BenM said:

    Congratulations to the Conservatives. A majority is looking a good possibility now.

    An utter unmitigated disaster for Labour who'll be wracked by existential crisis and another leadership election. A left programme has been soundly repudiated. Labour needs another Blairite.

    This is a mandate for the Conservative programme which I wish well for the sake of the country.

    Still a great privilege to watch democracy in action. The people have spoken.

    A top post, I have liked your honesty and lack of complacency during the past weeks
    BenM has to be one of the most honest and decent posters on the site.

    LucyJones Posts: 41

    Been lurking long?
  • ProdicusProdicus Posts: 658

    BenM said:

    Congratulations to the Conservatives. A majority is looking a good possibility now.

    An utter unmitigated disaster for Labour who'll be wracked by existential crisis and another leadership election. A left programme has been soundly repudiated. Labour needs another Blairite.

    This is a mandate for the Conservative programme which I wish well for the sake of the country.

    Still a great privilege to watch democracy in action. The people have spoken.

    A post that does you credit, sir.
    Seconded.
    Hear, hear.

  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    DavidL said:

    Will the UUP not take the tory whip? 1 closer rather than more difficult as the BBC claim.

    UUP will, DUP wont necessarily.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,978
    That Labour uncut article looks like being on the money.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,780

    Burnham appears close to tears

    Is his masarca running?
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,449
    Cameron faces being the PM who lost the union if he doesn't make a big offer to Scotland ASAP.
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    BenM said:

    Congratulations to the Conservatives. A majority is looking a good possibility now.

    An utter unmitigated disaster for Labour who'll be wracked by existential crisis and another leadership election. A left programme has been soundly repudiated. Labour needs another Blairite.

    This is a mandate for the Conservative programme which I wish well for the sake of the country.

    Still a great privilege to watch democracy in action. The people have spoken.

    You think Labour needs to go back to Blairism? It's not 1997 anymore. Neither what Miliband's been offering, nor Blairism will save Labour. Blairism certainly won't get Scotland back, or hold off a potential UKIP challenge in the North.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    edited May 2015
    Dair said:

    DavidL said:

    Will the UUP not take the tory whip? 1 closer rather than more difficult as the BBC claim.

    UUP will, DUP wont necessarily.
    DUP are mercenaries. The UUP are as good at Tories.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,712

    Does this mean EV4EL on the table? You can bet backbenchers will be pushing for it, and more.

    That's effectively what there'll be anyway.

    This result gives the Tories the scope to be a lot more imaginative about a new constitutional settlement if they care to be.

    I'm getting premature, but if the Tories want to hold and build on this result 'doing nothing' on sensible, balanced constitutional reform simply isn't an option.

    I hope they see sense.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,672
    I echo BenM. Congratulations to the Tories. A clear and convincing win. I just hope they have the vision and the statesmanship to keep our country together.

    As for Labour, it's clear the march to the left has failed utterly. The problem is that the unions will prevent a proper realisation of that. It's a long way back from here.
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    Llanelli

    Lab -1.1
    Plaid -7
    UKIP +13.5

    lab hold
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,780
    Burnham 'The only job i want is health sec in Ed's government'

    Good luck with that
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,844
    Farron is a knob.
  • GravitationGravitation Posts: 287
    Con surge in the Western Isles
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    Angus McNeil saying his speach in Gaelic.

    26% swing in Kilmarnock is a "record" according to BBC.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,723
    This is only possible because of David Cameron.

    It only happened because he won the centre ground - Gay Marriage (and similar policies) WON votes.
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    edited May 2015

    Burnham appears close to tears

    Probably due to the huge spot he appears to have on the end of his nose. - just saying..!
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,952
    Andrew Neil getting use of "decimate" wrong!

    The LibDems could only DREAM of being decimated tonight.....
  • GravitationGravitation Posts: 287
    Why do people say that Farron will be next LD leader? Maybe because there's nobody else left!
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Dair said:

    Angus McNeil saying his speach in Gaelic.

    26% swing in Kilmarnock is a "record" according to BBC.

    I expect it will be broken tonight again.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    Saltire said:

    Well there is 1 of the 10 for the Libdems.
    Followed by 1 of 58/59 for the SNP

    The exit poll had Ceredigion as a Plaid gain
    I had this one as a hold. We need more LD seats to see if things are better in the heartlands.
  • kingbongokingbongo Posts: 393
    DavidL said:

    Will the UUP not take the tory whip? 1 closer rather than more difficult as the BBC claim.

    no-one on the BBC seems to be aware of the link between UUP and tories
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,533
    If Labour pick Burnham for leader they are stupid.....not leadership material.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,712
    MikeL said:

    This is only possible because of David Cameron.

    It only happened because he won the centre ground - Gay Marriage (and similar policies) WON votes.

    The first bit of that is correct.
  • SaltireSaltire Posts: 525
    Much smaller swing to the SNP in Na h-Eileanan an lar of 6.5%
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071

    Yay a LD hold!!!!!



    Dr Éoin Clarke @LabourEoin
    16m 16 minutes ago
    Still see no reason, whatsoever, to change my view that David Cameron's career is over.

    He really is a total moron. Why he has so many followers I have no idea, when he is consistently caught out lying and / or just plain wrong.
    Probably for the same reason that I used to follow him - it was like slowing down when passing a motorway pileup.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Tim Farron is digging a hole for himself on the BBC now.
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    Islington North

    Lab +5.8
    Con +3
    Green +7.2
    LD -18.6
  • saddosaddo Posts: 534
    Labour need a new leader who has had a real life outside politics or the unions and talks with a regional accent.

    That rules out pretty much every one of the current leadership.

    They need to be real and grounded. They haven't got anybody.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    The exit poll needs to be revised soon. It's at least 10 under for Cons IMO.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,656

    Andrew Neil getting use of "decimate" wrong!

    The LibDems could only DREAM of being decimated tonight.....

    He means "getting only 10 seats... if they're lucky..."
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    edited May 2015
    George Eaton ‏@georgeeaton · 2m2 minutes ago
    Labour HQ source: "Ed has to resign tomorrow. Everyone here accepts that."

    Just install Yvette and I think I might burst or retire.
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486

    If Labour pick Burnham for leader they are stupid.....not leadership material.

    Who then?
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    Farron will be next LD leader. Clegg's leadership has pretty much been a failure. I think it'll take a generation for both the LDs and Labour to come back from this.
  • ProdicusProdicus Posts: 658
    Burnham writing Ed's epitaph live on air.
  • marke09marke09 Posts: 926
    Britain Elects ‏@britainelects 2m2 minutes ago

    Ceredigion result:
    LDEM - 35.9% (-14.2)
    PC - 27.7% (-0.6)
    CON - 11.0% (-0.5)
    UKIP - 10.2% (+7.7)
    LAB - 9.7% (+3.9)
    GRN - 5.6% (+3.8)
  • Eh_ehm_a_ehEh_ehm_a_eh Posts: 552
    Kilmarnock. nice Western Isles ho hum.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,978
    As you know, I've been canvassing in West Yorkshire, even I couldn't predict this.

    So, I'm not surprised the pollsters and Labour bods like Andy Burnham are struggling to reconcile with that happened on the ground.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Freggles said:

    If Labour pick Burnham for leader they are stupid.....not leadership material.

    Who then?
    Liz Kendall
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,533
    edited May 2015

    George Eaton ‏@georgeeaton · 2m2 minutes ago
    Labour HQ source: "Ed has to resign tomorrow. Everyone here accepts that."

    And take that bloody stone with you on the way out....
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    kingbongo said:

    DavidL said:

    Will the UUP not take the tory whip? 1 closer rather than more difficult as the BBC claim.

    no-one on the BBC seems to be aware of the link between UUP and tories
    The link was severed after the last election.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,504

    George Eaton ‏@georgeeaton · 2m2 minutes ago
    Labour HQ source: "Ed has to resign tomorrow. Everyone here accepts that."

    Doncaster North the first by-election of the new parliament?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,045
    Will the Tories get more votes than Major? :D:D:D
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    saddo said:

    Labour need a new leader who has had a real life outside politics or the unions and talks with a regional accent.

    That rules out pretty much every one of the current leadership.

    They need to be real and grounded. They haven't got anybody.

    Dan Jarvis?
  • Bob__SykesBob__Sykes Posts: 1,179
    edited May 2015

    That Labour uncut article looks like being on the money.

    Was just thinking the same!

    Farron is a knob.

    I'd love him to lose W&L. It would nearly be as good as Balls going.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669

    Cameron faces being the PM who lost the union if he doesn't make a big offer to Scotland ASAP.

    What if England and Wales look at Scotland and say they want what Scotland's getting?
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    antifrank said:

    Dair said:

    Angus McNeil saying his speach in Gaelic.

    26% swing in Kilmarnock is a "record" according to BBC.

    I expect it will be broken tonight again.
    Let's hope many times

    Second Referendum - 55%.

    Freedom.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,927
    Aren't we normally getting a few more results in by now?

    Come on!!
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,656

    Saltire said:

    Well there is 1 of the 10 for the Libdems.
    Followed by 1 of 58/59 for the SNP

    The exit poll had Ceredigion as a Plaid gain
    I had this one as a hold. We need more LD seats to see if things are better in the heartlands.
    There are a lot of seats that are going to be on an absolute knife edge: Yeovil, Hallam, Cambridge, Carshalton, etc.
  • LucyJonesLucyJones Posts: 651
    GeoffM said:

    LucyJones said:

    currystar said:

    BenM said:

    Congratulations to the Conservatives. A majority is looking a good possibility now.

    An utter unmitigated disaster for Labour who'll be wracked by existential crisis and another leadership election. A left programme has been soundly repudiated. Labour needs another Blairite.

    This is a mandate for the Conservative programme which I wish well for the sake of the country.

    Still a great privilege to watch democracy in action. The people have spoken.

    A top post, I have liked your honesty and lack of complacency during the past weeks
    BenM has to be one of the most honest and decent posters on the site.

    LucyJones Posts: 41

    Been lurking long?
    I've been posting here since before the last election. Posted quite a lot when we had disqus, but hardly ever in the past couple of years.

  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Freggles said:

    If Labour pick Burnham for leader they are stupid.....not leadership material.

    Who then?
    Ed Balls would be best. Yvette Cooper would be fine.
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,844

    Farron will be next LD leader. Clegg's leadership has pretty much been a failure. I think it'll take a generation for both the LDs and Labour to come back from this.

    Not if Ashdown has any say in it - there is no love lost there at all.
  • MyBurningEarsMyBurningEars Posts: 3,651

    Yay a LD hold!!!!!



    Dr Éoin Clarke @LabourEoin
    16m 16 minutes ago
    Still see no reason, whatsoever, to change my view that David Cameron's career is over.

    He really is a total moron. Why he has so many followers I have no idea, when he is consistently caught out lying and / or just plain wrong.
    Dr Eoin is one of those irritating overeducated blogcentric media nodes who somehow manages to consistently beam out negative quantities of information. I'm just glad he hasn't turned into a media darling a la Owen Jones.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,780

    George Eaton ‏@georgeeaton · 2m2 minutes ago
    Labour HQ source: "Ed has to resign tomorrow. Everyone here accepts that."

    Ed is toast
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,968
    Mr. Prodicus, not good enough. Surely it ought to be carved in limestone?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @BBCsarahsmith: #ge2015 Senior Lab sources very confident they have held Edin South with increased majority. Maybe only seat Lab hold in Scotland
  • FattyBolgerFattyBolger Posts: 299
    BenM said:

    Congratulations to the Conservatives. A majority is looking a good possibility now.

    An utter unmitigated disaster for Labour who'll be wracked by existential crisis and another leadership election. A left programme has been soundly repudiated. Labour needs another Blairite.

    This is a mandate for the Conservative programme which I wish well for the sake of the country.

    Still a great privilege to watch democracy in action. The people have spoken.

    Very creditable and honourable of you. I would hope to be as magnanimous if the situations were reversed.
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    Plaid hold Arfon easily. Increased majority
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830

    Why do people say that Farron will be next LD leader? Maybe because there's nobody else left!

    His views reflect the LD voter base.

    Clegg's march of the party away from the centre-left has been an unmitigated disaster.
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,844
    Time to say goodbye to Dougie
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Ooer Labour think they've won Thurrock...Betfair think so too
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Were you up for Wee Dougie ?
  • saddenedsaddened Posts: 2,245
    Burnham really is terrible example of a speak your weight politician.
  • SaltireSaltire Posts: 525
    Douglas Alexander about to lose...
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    Devolving taxes to Scotland would be a good way of
    1) saving money for the rUK (bit less off the welfare bill)
    2) giving the Tories in Scotland a raison d'etre (when are the Tories ever likely to prosper in a Parliament whose main responsibility is to spend a fixed amount of pocket money on Public Services
    3) test whether Scotland really has an appetite for (fiscal) independence
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,656
    marke09 said:

    Britain Elects ‏@britainelects 2m2 minutes ago

    Ceredigion result:
    LDEM - 35.9% (-14.2)
    PC - 27.7% (-0.6)
    CON - 11.0% (-0.5)
    UKIP - 10.2% (+7.7)
    LAB - 9.7% (+3.9)
    GRN - 5.6% (+3.8)

    PC actually went backwards...
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071

    Burnham 'The only job i want is health sec in Ed's government'

    Good luck with that

    Haven't his actions killed enough people yet? So many vases, so little time...
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,968
    Mr. Antifrank, neither Cooper nor Balls have dead cert seats.
This discussion has been closed.