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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The first litmus test Nuneaton is a Tory Hold with a 3% swi

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    Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664
    Sandpit said:

    Okay, so if the exit poll was right, where does that leave all the other polls of the last 24 hours?

    Wrong.
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    dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,294
    Kirsty Wark lost for words - thank God for small mercies.
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    Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411

    Ishmael_X said:

    Ishmael_X said:

    rcs1000 said:

    I'm not a Hemming fan, but I thought he'd hold Yardley
    So did I, so did Lord Ashcroft
    You say that like Lord Ashcroft wasn't a laughing stock.
    Lord Ashcroft spent more than £5 million quid polling this parliament, I for one, am thankful to him.
    Now I know you are a Labour mole. try assessing outcomes rather than inputs.

    PS "invested" £5 million is the correct Labspeak.
    Please, everyone knows I'm an extreme far right Monday Club Tory
    How's Reckless doing? Are you concerned about him?? :lol:
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    FlightpathlFlightpathl Posts: 1,243
    I am just listening to the most sense I have ever heard Kirsty Wark ever say on TV.
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    marktheowlmarktheowl Posts: 169
    It's gone. It's over Tory majority I think. As a post mortem. Don't blame Ed, he had a decent campaign, it is strategic weaknesses which have caused this. Scotland, the proverbial rotten tooth. Not getting England properly, particularly middle England is our fault. One may think it's been a harsh and disingenuous campaign, but those are our weaknesses being exploited. Blaming Ed is the easy way out. Look at ourselves.
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    PurseybearPurseybear Posts: 766

    A Lib Dem friend at the Hallam count has texted to say

    "We really could have done with your vote you [then a load of expletives]"

    Oh

    My

    God

    Seriously? Clegg in trouble?
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    RobinWiggsRobinWiggs Posts: 621
    Do reverse swings in seats like Nuneaton and Battersea mean Ed Balls may be back in play.

    I think I might mess myself if he loses.
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    MontyMonty Posts: 346
    Speedy said:

    Monty said:

    Feels like 1992. I wonder if like 1992 it may prove to be a good election to lose.

    Well there is another financial crash on the horizon again, Cameron will have a smaller majority than Major and the Tories will split on Europe again.
    Yes, exactly. Once the euphoria has subsided this will be an 'interesting' parliament.
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,784

    Late to the party - but where is the second Green seat being predicted?

    Norwich South
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    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,416
    Newcastle North - No Swing
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    Y0kelY0kel Posts: 2,307
    I don't think Peter Robinson will be too upset by the loss of McCrea.

    He will be more upset if East & South Belfast don't come in.
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    Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    SNP 'not the Viet Cong' :lol:
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 50,081
    alex. said:

    Artist said:

    Change in seat: South Antrim to UUP.

    One seat off the Con/DUP dream team?
    Are Con/UUP not aligned, or did that arrangement end?
    Just for the 2009 Euros, 2010 GE
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    ConcanvasserConcanvasser Posts: 165
    Labour targeting went haywire today in my bit of the country. Their ground campaign advantage doesnt seem to have added up to much.
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Ave_it said:

    LOL sturgeon - your 50 MPS can sit on their bottoms next to your LAB friends and be ignored!

    it looks very much as if the SNP MPs will be as impotent as a Eunuch who has lost his viagra.
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,805
    Monty said:

    Speedy said:

    Monty said:

    Feels like 1992. I wonder if like 1992 it may prove to be a good election to lose.

    Well there is another financial crash on the horizon again, Cameron will have a smaller majority than Major and the Tories will split on Europe again.
    Yes, exactly. Once the euphoria has subsided this will be an 'interesting' parliament.
    With the way things currently stand, I agree.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Time for a drink I think
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,018

    It's gone. It's over Tory majority I think. As a post mortem. Don't blame Ed, he had a decent campaign, it is strategic weaknesses which have caused this. Scotland, the proverbial rotten tooth. Not getting England properly, particularly middle England is our fault. One may think it's been a harsh and disingenuous campaign, but those are our weaknesses being exploited. Blaming Ed is the easy way out. Look at ourselves.

    Partly right - Labour need to blame Ed and their lack of policies, and taking part of the UK for granted.

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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100

    A Lib Dem friend at the Hallam count has texted to say

    "We really could have done with your vote you [then a load of expletives]"

    Clegg doesn't deserve to win.
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    ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,181
    alex. said:

    Artist said:

    Change in seat: South Antrim to UUP.

    One seat off the Con/DUP dream team?
    Are Con/UUP not aligned, or did that arrangement end?
    It ended, but they'll vote together an awful lot. Think of it as 0.75 of a Con seat.
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,523
    So, how much is OGH set to lose on his Lab-Tory difference spread bet? Or did he close down that position?
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,306
    MikeL said:

    Newcastle North - No Swing

    After 21 seats, CON +2.1%, LAB+0.5%... titter
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    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    Cameron doesn't have to give the SNP anything at all....

    Ave_it said:

    LOL sturgeon - your 50 MPS can sit on their bottoms next to your LAB friends and be ignored!

    58.
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    GarethoftheVale2GarethoftheVale2 Posts: 2,111
    Monty said:

    Feels like 1992. I wonder if like 1992 it may prove to be a good election to lose.

    One key difference is that Con are likely to be in a position to push through the rest of individual registration removing voters who can't be matched against NI numbers. This would then lead to a highly favourable boundary review.
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    Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669

    I am just listening to the most sense I have ever heard Kirsty Wark ever say on TV.

    Her mic was off?
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    MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    edited May 2015

    I will ask again. Are UKIP actually helping the Tories in some of these seats by taking votes from Labour?

    UKIP is the new party for the WWC. Symbolic that Farage will be lopped off: they are heading in a different direction.
    It had to happen and it is a shame it has happened this way. He has campaigned tirelessly for a long while and it is quite sad that after all he has achieved he will end his career having been defeated.

    What UKIP can achieve with someone like Steven Woolfe or to a lesser extent Paul Nuttall is quite exciting. Come 2020 Labour could be in serious trouble.
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,189

    Does this mean EV4EL on the table? You can bet backbenchers will be pushing for it, and more.

    That's effectively what there'll be anyway.

    This result gives the Tories the scope to be a lot more imaginative about a new constitutional settlement if they care to be.

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    YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172

    It's gone. It's over Tory majority I think. As a post mortem. Don't blame Ed, he had a decent campaign, it is strategic weaknesses which have caused this. Scotland, the proverbial rotten tooth. Not getting England properly, particularly middle England is our fault. One may think it's been a harsh and disingenuous campaign, but those are our weaknesses being exploited. Blaming Ed is the easy way out. Look at ourselves.

    Ed was a poor choice. Many said it right at the start and they were ignored.

    Politics is a ruthless business. Poor leaders have to be despatched swiftly.

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    PurseybearPurseybear Posts: 766
    Monty said:

    Speedy said:

    Monty said:

    Feels like 1992. I wonder if like 1992 it may prove to be a good election to lose.

    Well there is another financial crash on the horizon again, Cameron will have a smaller majority than Major and the Tories will split on Europe again.
    Yes, exactly. Once the euphoria has subsided this will be an 'interesting' parliament.
    But. If he wins he will be the first public school educated tory to win since 1959. I think he will be revered for a very long time.

    Anyway, back to tonight.
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    ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,181
    Net 0.8 Swing to Con right now.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 115,948
    Ave_it said:

    Ishmael_X said:

    Ishmael_X said:

    rcs1000 said:

    I'm not a Hemming fan, but I thought he'd hold Yardley
    So did I, so did Lord Ashcroft
    You say that like Lord Ashcroft wasn't a laughing stock.
    Lord Ashcroft spent more than £5 million quid polling this parliament, I for one, am thankful to him.
    Now I know you are a Labour mole. try assessing outcomes rather than inputs.

    PS "invested" £5 million is the correct Labspeak.
    Please, everyone knows I'm an extreme far right Monday Club Tory
    How's Reckless doing? Are you concerned about him?? :lol:
    Yes, I'm worried he might hold on.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,974

    Do reverse swings in seats like Nuneaton and Battersea mean Ed Balls may be back in play.

    I think I might mess myself if he loses.

    A lot of us are thinking that, yes.
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    alex.alex. Posts: 4,658



    Sturgeon ''I want to work with Labour to lock the Tories out''

    Is she really still saying that? Even without a Tory majority, voting down a minority govt on those numbers can only mean an election. Why would the SNP want an election?

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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,784
    Ceridgion...
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    john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    @Scott_P

    '@ShippersUnbound: The half dozen people who called me earlier to say Lynton Crosby will never work again in Britain have turned their phones off'

    Does that include compouter2 ?
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 52,080
    SeanT said:

    *stifles laughter with nine foot Limestone Policy Obelisk*

    Ohmyword.

    It was only 8ft 6 inches. 9 ft would have been ridiculous.
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    ProdicusProdicus Posts: 658
    Shippers: The half dozen people who called me earlier to say Lynton Crosby will never work again in Britain have turned their phones off

    — Tim Shipman (@ShippersUnbound) May 8, 2015
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    MP_SE said:

    I will ask again. Are UKIP actually helping the Tories in some of these seats by taking votes from Labour?

    UKIP is the new party for the WWC. Symbolic that Farage will be lopped off: they are heading in a different direction.
    It had to happen and it is a shame it has happened this way. He has campaigned tirelessly for a long while and it is quite sad that after all he has achieved he will end his career having been defeated.

    What UKIP can achieve with someone like Steven Woolfe or to a lesser extent Paul Nuttall is quite exciting. Come 2020 Labour could be in serious trouble.
    It reminds me of the SNP's rise, at the beginning they were right wing, then they turned left.
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    dmc82dmc82 Posts: 27
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5TPpuIslzG4&t=1m30s

    "I'm enjoying this I'm enjoying this!" :-)
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    LucyJonesLucyJones Posts: 651
    So, do the Tories amongst us still think this is a good election to lose?
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 78,069
    edited May 2015
    Imagine how the Tories would have done if they had a decent coherent GE campaign with some sensible policies and Cameron had done "pumped up" for more than 3-4 days?
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    murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,060
    I'm here - not shirking.

    This is worse than 1992. Period.

    Hope you Tories are enjoying this. Victory tastes so sweet especially when it's rather expected.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @politicshome: Labour's Andy Burnham: "It’s early days still... People shouldn’t jump the gun." #GE2015 http://t.co/VeC0Vzin6H
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    AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    Lady Sylvia hold Down North
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    BenMBenM Posts: 1,795
    Congratulations to the Conservatives. A majority is looking a good possibility now.

    An utter unmitigated disaster for Labour who'll be wracked by existential crisis and another leadership election. A left programme has been soundly repudiated. Labour needs another Blairite.

    This is a mandate for the Conservative programme which I wish well for the sake of the country.

    Still a great privilege to watch democracy in action. The people have spoken.

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    oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,833

    It's gone. It's over Tory majority I think. As a post mortem. Don't blame Ed, he had a decent campaign, it is strategic weaknesses which have caused this. Scotland, the proverbial rotten tooth. Not getting England properly, particularly middle England is our fault. One may think it's been a harsh and disingenuous campaign, but those are our weaknesses being exploited. Blaming Ed is the easy way out. Look at ourselves.

    Ed was a poor choice. Many said it right at the start and they were ignored.

    Politics is a ruthless business. Poor leaders have to be despatched swiftly.

    He has already put a plan in place to stay on. I can't see it happening. Unite will switch the money to someone else!
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    SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,713
    BOOOM SNP
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    GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    tlg86 said:

    GeoffM said:

    What does Cameron do about a problem called Scotland?

    Throw 'em out. Get rid of them. Monday morning, first thing.
    That's what I said! Bet it doesn't happen, though.
    Apologies if we duplicated - great minds, and all that!
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,784
    PC 10,347
    LD 13,414

    LD Hold Ceridgion
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    ArtistArtist Posts: 1,887
    Lib Dems are off and running.
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    DairDair Posts: 6,108

    Ishmael_X said:

    Ishmael_X said:

    rcs1000 said:

    I'm not a Hemming fan, but I thought he'd hold Yardley
    So did I, so did Lord Ashcroft
    You say that like Lord Ashcroft wasn't a laughing stock.
    Lord Ashcroft spent more than £5 million quid polling this parliament, I for one, am thankful to him.
    Now I know you are a Labour mole. try assessing outcomes rather than inputs.

    PS "invested" £5 million is the correct Labspeak.
    Please, everyone knows I'm an extreme far right Monday Club Tory
    Damn thought you were a Green.
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    dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    LDs on the board
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    Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    Kilmarnock 30k for SNP
    Labour out
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    Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    LDs back on it!!!!!

    I thought they would lose there!
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    alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    OMG Kilmarnok
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,189
    Blimey, LibDem hold!!
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    BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    MP_SE said:

    I will ask again. Are UKIP actually helping the Tories in some of these seats by taking votes from Labour?

    UKIP is the new party for the WWC. Symbolic that Farage will be lopped off: they are heading in a different direction.
    It had to happen and it is a shame it has happened this way. He has campaigned tirelessly for a long while and it is quite sad that after all he has achieved he will end his career having been defeated.

    What UKIP can achieve with someone like Steven Woolfe or to a lesser extent Paul Nuttall is quite exciting. Come 2020 Labour could be in serious trouble.
    Agreed, a mad 24 hours for UKIP, with woolfe in charge and a weak labour leader it could be a bloodbath in 2020. Feel sad for Nigel but he should feel proud of what he's achieved to get them to this stage
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    Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664

    Kellner trying to explain.

    But he cannot.
    The polls were not wrong. They were done wrong. Not deliberately, but they really did not know what they were doing.
    Kellner say we should not listen to polls!!! His company is the one doing them 4 times a week for 5 years!!!!!

    BTW
    Are the LD inclined actually voting tory to counter UKIP votes? There cannot be a straight LD to UKIP switch.

    Sturgeon ''I want to work with Labour to lock the Tories out''

    He also said that nobody, NOBODY, predicted the likely actual result anywhere. At all. Clearly an ARSE denier, unless we are meant to believe he never ever ever reads PB.com.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,311
    Lib. Hold cardigon
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    The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    Ave_it said:

    LOL sturgeon - your 50 MPS can sit on their bottoms next to your LAB friends and be ignored!

    I hope losing Scotland will be worth it for Conservatives.
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    FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    Oh look, there's going to be a Liberal Democrat in the new parliament.
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    Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,063
    Yay a LD hold!!!!!



    Dr Éoin Clarke @LabourEoin
    16m 16 minutes ago
    Still see no reason, whatsoever, to change my view that David Cameron's career is over.

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    AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    Cathy Jamieson demolished
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,306
    dmc82 said:

    www.youtube.com/watch?v=5TPpuIslzG4&t=1m30s

    "I'm enjoying this I'm enjoying this!" :-)

    If only our current lot could command the house like that.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,974
    Kilmarnock - here we go with the SNP surge.
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,784
    LDs not zero!
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,679
    The LibDems have a driver for the taxi at least!
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    ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,181
    edited May 2015
    LD hold. I wonder how many more there are...
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    KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,851
    edited May 2015
    Alan Brown gets the small matter of 30,000 votes for the SNP in Kilmarnock....

    TWENTY SIX PERCENT SWING
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 78,069
    F##king hell...30,000...
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @paulhutcheon: Cathy Jamieson: what a hammering #GE2015
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    SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    edited May 2015
    Kilmarnock & Loudon - SNP 30,000 - gain from Labour, LD lose deposit. 26% swing from Labour to SNP.
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    FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    SNP going North Korean.
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100

    Blimey, LibDem hold!!

    So we found one of the 10 LD MP's
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,306
    Hold the presses! The LDs have a seat!!!!
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 50,081
    LDs hold Ceredigion!
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,784
    rcs1000 said:

    LDs not zero!

    10 more seats required if I am to take my family on holiday this summer...
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    dmc82dmc82 Posts: 27
    SNP gain Kilmarnock lib dems lose another deposit
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    DairDair Posts: 6,108
    Kilmarnock
    SLID 789
    SNP 30000
    SLAB 16362
    SCON 6752

    WOW
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    SNP get exactly 30,000 votes in Kilmarnock.
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    Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    Kilmarnock!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    That's a creaming!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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    SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,713
    26% swing to SNP
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    SaltireSaltire Posts: 525
    Well there is 1 of the 10 for the Libdems.
    Followed by 1 of 58/59 for the SNP
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    welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,464
    BenM said:

    Congratulations to the Conservatives. A majority is looking a good possibility now.

    An utter unmitigated disaster for Labour who'll be wracked by existential crisis and another leadership election. A left programme has been soundly repudiated. Labour needs another Blairite.

    This is a mandate for the Conservative programme which I wish well for the sake of the country.

    Still a great privilege to watch democracy in action. The people have spoken.

    Fine post. Well said.
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,784
    Speedy said:

    Blimey, LibDem hold!!

    So we found one of the 10 LD MP's
    Please, make it 11...
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    Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    Moses_ said:

    Kilmarnock 30k for SNP
    Labour out

    26% swing Labour to SNP
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,805
    BenM said:

    Congratulations to the Conservatives. A majority is looking a good possibility now.

    An utter unmitigated disaster for Labour who'll be wracked by existential crisis and another leadership election. A left programme has been soundly repudiated. Labour needs another Blairite.

    This is a mandate for the Conservative programme which I wish well for the sake of the country.

    Still a great privilege to watch democracy in action. The people have spoken.

    A post that does you credit, sir.
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 52,080
    Kilmarnock must be worst than SLAB's worst nightmares.
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    alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    Ishmael_X said:

    Kellner trying to explain.

    But he cannot.
    The polls were not wrong. They were done wrong. Not deliberately, but they really did not know what they were doing.
    Kellner say we should not listen to polls!!! His company is the one doing them 4 times a week for 5 years!!!!!

    BTW
    Are the LD inclined actually voting tory to counter UKIP votes? There cannot be a straight LD to UKIP switch.

    Sturgeon ''I want to work with Labour to lock the Tories out''

    He also said that nobody, NOBODY, predicted the likely actual result anywhere. At all. Clearly an ARSE denier, unless we are meant to believe he never ever ever reads PB.com.
    Well, also the only reason many people didn't predict it was because of the polls. No polls, plenty of people would have predicted it. It made sense.
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 50,081
    Kilmarnock = SNP gain! Swing 26% Lab to SNP
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 118,281
    SNP gain Kilmarnock swing 26%
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    RobinWiggsRobinWiggs Posts: 621
    Kilmarnock - 26% swing

    Wow
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,306
    30k on the nose. Amazing result for the SNP.
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    dmc82dmc82 Posts: 27
    26% swing LAB to SNP in Kilmarnock
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    PurseybearPurseybear Posts: 766
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    LDs not zero!

    10 more seats required if I am to take my family on holiday this summer...
    Although I do better on 0-10 than 11-20 I won't begrudge you it :-)
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    SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976

    BenM said:

    Congratulations to the Conservatives. A majority is looking a good possibility now.

    An utter unmitigated disaster for Labour who'll be wracked by existential crisis and another leadership election. A left programme has been soundly repudiated. Labour needs another Blairite.

    This is a mandate for the Conservative programme which I wish well for the sake of the country.

    Still a great privilege to watch democracy in action. The people have spoken.

    A post that does you credit, sir.
    Seconded.
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    currystarcurrystar Posts: 1,171
    BenM said:

    Congratulations to the Conservatives. A majority is looking a good possibility now.

    An utter unmitigated disaster for Labour who'll be wracked by existential crisis and another leadership election. A left programme has been soundly repudiated. Labour needs another Blairite.

    This is a mandate for the Conservative programme which I wish well for the sake of the country.

    Still a great privilege to watch democracy in action. The people have spoken.

    A top post, I have liked your honesty and lack of complacency during the past weeks
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    FlightpathlFlightpathl Posts: 1,243

    Does this mean EV4EL on the table? You can bet backbenchers will be pushing for it, and more.

    The BBC are saying that Cameron must do something about Scotland.
    But Scotland has devolution.
    How can the English do anything about Scotland?
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    oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,833
    welshowl said:

    BenM said:

    Congratulations to the Conservatives. A majority is looking a good possibility now.

    An utter unmitigated disaster for Labour who'll be wracked by existential crisis and another leadership election. A left programme has been soundly repudiated. Labour needs another Blairite.

    This is a mandate for the Conservative programme which I wish well for the sake of the country.

    Still a great privilege to watch democracy in action. The people have spoken.

    Fine post. Well said.
    Absolutely.

    After all the bile and nasty spite I have seen on my Facebook wall all day, that is a refreshingly considered response to a very surprising night.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 78,069

    Yay a LD hold!!!!!



    Dr Éoin Clarke @LabourEoin
    16m 16 minutes ago
    Still see no reason, whatsoever, to change my view that David Cameron's career is over.

    He really is a total moron. Why he has so many followers I have no idea, when he is consistently caught out lying and / or just plain wrong.
This discussion has been closed.