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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The first litmus test Nuneaton is a Tory Hold with a 3% swi

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  • Options
    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,416
    Kellner: Con may only win popular vote by 5% or 6%.

    I thought we were told on here they needed a 10% or 11% lead for a majority????????

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    AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    Betfair conmaj not far off crossover .......
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 115,948
    antifrank said:

    Anyway, now we now that polls are useless, what are we going to talk about for the next five years?

    We could have 3 leadership elections in the next 24 hours, and 2 referendums in the next 3/4 years
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,784

    I will ask again. Are UKIP actually helping the Tories in some of these seats by taking votes from Labour?

    Hard to tell. There's clearly quite a churn - look at the LibDem figures
    Agreed. I just can't get my head around the idea that voters are jumping straight from the Lib Dems to UKIP.
    A substantial portion of LD vote was A New Kind of Politics / None of the Above, and UKIP is the repository for those votes now.
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    Squirrel down....squirrel down......

    That squirrel needs retirement. All that pollwatching was pointless.
    Speedy said:

    UKIP up 14% , CON up 4% in Nuneaton.

    Labour to UKIP swing looks to be forming, a pattern emerges now.

    It looks as if the Con vote is losing much less than Lab and LD to the kippers

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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 78,069
    antifrank said:

    Anyway, now we now that polls are useless, what are we going to talk about for the next five years?

    I presume the Daily YouGov wont be getting recommissioned ?
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    ProdicusProdicus Posts: 658
    CON MAJ 11/10 Ladbrokes
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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    This polling disaster is worse than that in the Scottish referendum (that no one noticed). Pollsters have a crisis of credibility tonight.
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    No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 4,079

    What does Cameron do about a problem called Scotland?

    More devolution......

    I think our Nat posters are deluding themselves - the Scots want MPs who will stick up for Scotland, but not independence. The trouble is, they can't tell the difference between 'the SNP' and 'Scotland'.....
    Boris talking about the "ajockalypse" sort of encouraged that.
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    The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    I think the Tories are getting an overall majority. It's a question as to how big that majority is. I'm hoping it'll be small, but how this election night has gone - could it be a landslide?
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @iainmartin1: Kellner with the quote of the night: "We're not as far out as we were in 1992…"
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,101
    Curtice saying the exit poll predicted in Nuneaton a swing from Con to Lab.....not the other way round.....so couldn't discount Con Maj.....
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    isamisam Posts: 41,118
    rcs1000 said:

    I'm not a Hemming fan, but I thought he'd hold Yardley
    I made Labour a bet there.. didnt back it though!
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    watford30watford30 Posts: 3,474
    edited May 2015

    Labour will struggle to reach 220 if they continue in this way

    Miliband won't be lingering long on that number. He'll be off to spend more time with his kitchens.
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    ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,181
    Majority now 2.5 times larger in Nuneaton...
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited May 2015
    rcs1000 said:

    That is astonishing! 3% swing to Cons in Nuneaton.

    Tory majority? 1992?!

    I am beginning to think possible but where from? With a Labour wipe out in Scotland there would have to be a labour wipe out in England.
    Zero LDs?
    That seems unlikely. But it's possible I guess. Exit poll has Clegg ahead in Hallam.

    If he's the only MP, I guess he gets to stay leader :-)0
    If he is the only MP left, it wouldn't make much difference to the future of the LD or to their value.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,306

    I think the Tories are getting an overall majority. It's a question as to how big that majority is. I'm hoping it'll be small, but how this election night has gone - could it be a landslide?

    Don't tease me :o
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    Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664

    rcs1000 said:

    I'm not a Hemming fan, but I thought he'd hold Yardley
    So did I, so did Lord Ashcroft
    You say that like Lord Ashcroft wasn't a laughing stock.
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    KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,851

    I will ask again. Are UKIP actually helping the Tories in some of these seats by taking votes from Labour?

    UKIP is the new party for the WWC. Symbolic that Farage will be lopped off: they are heading in a different direction.
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    alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    AndyJS said:

    A Tory majority is now the most likely outcome IMO.

    Well yes - when are the media going to start moving to this?

    Swings to Conservatives from Labour and they don't even need to gain any Labour seats to gain a majority with the LibDem collapse. Could be looking at 350 seats!
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    MontyMonty Posts: 346
    Feels like 1992. I wonder if like 1992 it may prove to be a good election to lose.
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,189
    antifrank said:

    Anyway, now we now that polls are useless, what are we going to talk about for the next five years?

    The break-up of the UK.

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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,805
    02.00 R5L news headlines biased towards the Conservatives. ;-)
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    SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,713

    antifrank said:

    Anyway, now we now that polls are useless, what are we going to talk about for the next five years?

    We could have 3 leadership elections in the next 24 hours, and 2 referendums in the next 3/4 years
    Happy days....
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,523

    I will ask again. Are UKIP actually helping the Tories in some of these seats by taking votes from Labour?

    Hard to tell. There's clearly quite a churn - look at the LibDem figures
    Agreed. I just can't get my head around the idea that voters are jumping straight from the Lib Dems to UKIP.
    It's difficult to put yourself in the shoes of the sort of person who would do that. We're too close to politics to understand it. That doesn't prove it's happening though.
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,784
    Mortimer said:

    Is there a chance that LD could cease to exist as a party?

    Yes, of course.

    But if the Conservative Party swings right (to grab UKIP) and Labour swings left (to grab back the SNP seats), then a gap in the centre will appear.
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    Eh_ehm_a_ehEh_ehm_a_eh Posts: 552
    antifrank said:

    Anyway, now we now that polls are useless, what are we going to talk about for the next five years?

    Scottish polls.

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    ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,181
    MikeL said:

    Kellner: Con may only win popular vote by 5% or 6%.

    I thought we were told on here they needed a 10% or 11% lead for a majority????????

    Lots more Labour wasted votes. Also, there is no net swing atm = 7% Con lead.
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    DairDair Posts: 6,108
    Scott_P said:

    This is a disaster. What we really, really, really want is Lucy Powell on TV right now!

    Denied...

    Just think of the Policy Cenotaph
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 59,417
    My bank manager will not be sleeping tonight if Nuneaton is a fair reflection.
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    Chris_AChris_A Posts: 1,237
    Con majority now almost Evens, I got on at 4/1
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    RobinWiggsRobinWiggs Posts: 621
    Kellner "If anyone says they knew this all along, they didn't say this 48 hours ago".

    Umm - JackW's ARSE did.
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    FensterFenster Posts: 2,115
    Kellner arguing on the BBC that nobody saw this coming, defending the pollsters.

    Jack W would beg to differ.
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    AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    I hope we won't get a daily yougov for another 5 years, right?
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,189

    I will ask again. Are UKIP actually helping the Tories in some of these seats by taking votes from Labour?

    Hard to tell. There's clearly quite a churn - look at the LibDem figures
    Agreed. I just can't get my head around the idea that voters are jumping straight from the Lib Dems to UKIP.

    It's protest, none of the above, etc.

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    DairDair Posts: 6,108
    Labour in Scotland are BLAMING the SNP because they're being destroyed in England. Lol.
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    John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    antifrank said:

    Anyway, now we now that polls are useless, what are we going to talk about for the next five years?

    Endless discussions about why they were wrong and what about electoral reform etc.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 115,948
    Ishmael_X said:

    rcs1000 said:

    I'm not a Hemming fan, but I thought he'd hold Yardley
    So did I, so did Lord Ashcroft
    You say that like Lord Ashcroft wasn't a laughing stock.
    Lord Ashcroft spent more than £5 million quid polling this parliament, I for one, am thankful to him.
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    welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,464
    Monty said:

    Feels like 1992. I wonder if like 1992 it may prove to be a good election to lose.

    Yeah. I wrote along those lines yesterday.

    Still let's be thankful we're not pollsters
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    ProdicusProdicus Posts: 658
    Blunkett had a point about scary polls driving people to vote. Daily YouGov - good idea?

    And surely one cannot say, now, that only nerds and bubblistas care about the polls.
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,523
    Monty said:

    Feels like 1992. I wonder if like 1992 it may prove to be a good election to lose.

    No, it's more like 1983.
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    FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    Dimbleby semi-jokes that no-one will listen to pollsters again
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    GravitationGravitation Posts: 281
    Atmosphere on here reaching fever pitch and not a single seat has changed hands yet!
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    LucyJonesLucyJones Posts: 651
    image

    Poor Ed.
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    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,416
    To be fair to Kellner he DID say all along that there would be late swing to Con / Con would outperform polls.
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    ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,181
    John_M said:

    antifrank said:

    Anyway, now we now that polls are useless, what are we going to talk about for the next five years?

    Endless discussions about why they were wrong and what about electoral reform etc.
    Electoral reform is looking a lot less likely now there is a likely OM.
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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    antifrank said:

    Anyway, now we now that polls are useless, what are we going to talk about for the next five years?

    Scottish polls.

    Good point. Ironically, everyone* doubted the Scottish polls for this election, despite their consistency. But they were right.

    *not everyone.
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    Eh_ehm_a_ehEh_ehm_a_eh Posts: 552
    SLAB MEP SNP partly to blame for Labour meltdown.
    They really are mentalists.
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 57,303
    If we get a small Tory majority, can the Tory right (who I know and love) please confound the sceptics and play nicely, please?
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Monty said:

    Feels like 1992. I wonder if like 1992 it may prove to be a good election to lose.

    Well there is another financial crash on the horizon again, Cameron will have a smaller majority than Major and the Tories will split on Europe again.
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    isamisam Posts: 41,118

    I will ask again. Are UKIP actually helping the Tories in some of these seats by taking votes from Labour?

    Hard to tell. There's clearly quite a churn - look at the LibDem figures
    Agreed. I just can't get my head around the idea that voters are jumping straight from the Lib Dems to UKIP.
    For non politicos, The Lib Dems were NOTA.. there never were 23% of voters that agreed with them, they just didn't like the other two

    Then they got into bed w the Tories, reneged on their main pledge... the rest est histoire!
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    The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    RobD said:

    I think the Tories are getting an overall majority. It's a question as to how big that majority is. I'm hoping it'll be small, but how this election night has gone - could it be a landslide?

    Don't tease me :o
    :(

    I feel pretty depressed now. I'm just preparing (IMHO) for the worst.
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    ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,181
    edited May 2015
    UUP GAIN from DUP - South Antrim.
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    FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    Clare Gerada of Royal College of GPs tweets "We need a revolution"

    Go to bed doctor
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    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 61,058
    watford30 said:

    Labour will struggle to reach 220 if they continue in this way

    Miliband won't be lingering long on that number. He'll be off to spend more time with his kitchens.
    Should resign later today if these results are confirmed
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    saddenedsaddened Posts: 2,245

    saddened said:

    There's a few notable absentees tonight. Can't think why.

    To be fair, some activists might be at counts...
    Yes I'm sure they'll be along later to hold their hands up and say yesterday's hubris was all just a mistake.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,306

    Atmosphere on here reaching fever pitch and not a single seat has changed hands yet!

    LOL. Can you blame us? After being utterly demoralised by the inability for the polls to move....
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    SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,713
    That Cameron ducking out of the debates looks like a masterstroke now....
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Antrim South, UUP gain from DUP, no figures yet:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/constituencies/N06000014
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 50,081
    edited May 2015
    UUP gain South ANtrim from DUP - 1st UUP Westminster victory since 2005
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,805
    Change in seat: South Antrim to UUP.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 115,948

    antifrank said:

    Anyway, now we now that polls are useless, what are we going to talk about for the next five years?

    We could have 3 leadership elections in the next 24 hours, and 2 referendums in the next 3/4 years
    Happy days....
    Add in the fact, Mike's going on holiday in a few weeks time.....
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,306
    BBC: Early results in line with exit polls.... sure :D
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,523
    Speedy said:

    Monty said:

    Feels like 1992. I wonder if like 1992 it may prove to be a good election to lose.

    Well there is another financial crash on the horizon again, Cameron will have a smaller majority than Major and the Tories will split on Europe again.
    But Labour's in a mess and there's no Tony Blair to ride to their rescue.
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 59,417
    EICISNPM
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    AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    The 3 spread companies on con seats: 321.5 322 322
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    FattyBolgerFattyBolger Posts: 299

    02.00 R5L news headlines biased towards the Conservatives. ;-)

    : }
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    ArtistArtist Posts: 1,887

    Change in seat: South Antrim to UUP.

    One seat off the Con/DUP dream team?
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    kjohnwkjohnw Posts: 1,456

    Squirrel down....squirrel down......

    That squirrel needs retirement. All that pollwatching was pointless.
    Speedy said:

    UKIP up 14% , CON up 4% in Nuneaton.

    Labour to UKIP swing looks to be forming, a pattern emerges now.

    It looks as if the Con vote is losing much less than Lab and LD to the kippers

    have we heard from compouter tonight??? or Gabble, or Tim, or BJO
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    ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,181
    Chameleon said:

    UUP GAIN from DUP - South Antrim.

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    GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071

    What does Cameron do about a problem called Scotland?

    Throw 'em out. Get rid of them. Monday morning, first thing.
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    DairDair Posts: 6,108
    UUP won South Antrim - quite interesting.
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,805

    That Cameron ducking out of the debates looks like a masterstroke now....

    Surely not? He was a coward and EVIL, whereas Ed was a strategic genius.

    Or so some thought.
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    Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664

    Ishmael_X said:

    rcs1000 said:

    I'm not a Hemming fan, but I thought he'd hold Yardley
    So did I, so did Lord Ashcroft
    You say that like Lord Ashcroft wasn't a laughing stock.
    Lord Ashcroft spent more than £5 million quid polling this parliament, I for one, am thankful to him.
    Now I know you are a Labour mole. try assessing outcomes rather than inputs.

    PS "invested" £5 million is the correct Labspeak.
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,784
    Jo Swinson neck and neck
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 59,417
    How many LibDems can you actually get in a mini? 10 possible?
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    Y0kelY0kel Posts: 2,307
    UUP gain South Antrim from DUP.
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    oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,833
    Late to the party - but where is the second Green seat being predicted?
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,974
    Okay, so if the exit poll was right, where does that leave all the other polls of the last 24 hours?
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    currystarcurrystar Posts: 1,171

    Ishmael_X said:

    rcs1000 said:

    I'm not a Hemming fan, but I thought he'd hold Yardley
    So did I, so did Lord Ashcroft
    You say that like Lord Ashcroft wasn't a laughing stock.
    Lord Ashcroft spent more than £5 million quid polling this parliament, I for one, am thankful to him.
    Why ? Polls are pointless
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 115,948
    edited May 2015
    A Lib Dem friend at the Hallam count has texted to say

    "We really could have done with your vote you [then a load of expletives]"
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,306
    kjohnw said:

    Squirrel down....squirrel down......

    That squirrel needs retirement. All that pollwatching was pointless.
    Speedy said:

    UKIP up 14% , CON up 4% in Nuneaton.

    Labour to UKIP swing looks to be forming, a pattern emerges now.

    It looks as if the Con vote is losing much less than Lab and LD to the kippers

    have we heard from compouter tonight??? or Gabble, or Tim, or BJO
    compouter teased everyone with "EICIPM" five minutes before the exit poll was announced, which was quite worrying (we won't forget that!), and BJO has been around. Still waiting on IOS to comment on LABs ground game....titter
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    SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,713
    Does this mean EV4EL on the table? You can bet backbenchers will be pushing for it, and more.
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    RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Chameleon said:

    Chameleon said:

    UUP GAIN from DUP - South Antrim.

    The Singing Nun out? - again?
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,523
    GeoffM said:

    What does Cameron do about a problem called Scotland?

    Throw 'em out. Get rid of them. Monday morning, first thing.
    That's what I said! Bet it doesn't happen, though.
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,805
    It feels odd to see the DUP third on the list of biggest parties, by quite a margin:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2015/results

    A sign that it is still early days, people.
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    Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    LOL sturgeon - your 50 MPS can sit on their bottoms next to your LAB friends and be ignored!
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    FlightpathlFlightpathl Posts: 1,243
    edited May 2015
    Kellner trying to explain.

    But he cannot.
    The polls were not wrong. They were done wrong. Not deliberately, but they really did not know what they were doing.
    Kellner say we should not listen to polls!!! His company is the one doing them 4 times a week for 5 years!!!!!

    BTW
    Are the LD inclined actually voting tory to counter UKIP votes? There cannot be a straight LD to UKIP switch.

    Sturgeon ''I want to work with Labour to lock the Tories out''
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,162
    Mr. Simon, possibly Bristol West or a Norwich seat (from memory).
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Sturgeon looks very sad.
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    ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,181
    Sandpit said:

    Okay, so if the exit poll was right, where does that leave all the other polls of the last 24 hours?

    The exit poll isn't right, it's just wrong by a smaller margin.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 115,948
    Ishmael_X said:

    Ishmael_X said:

    rcs1000 said:

    I'm not a Hemming fan, but I thought he'd hold Yardley
    So did I, so did Lord Ashcroft
    You say that like Lord Ashcroft wasn't a laughing stock.
    Lord Ashcroft spent more than £5 million quid polling this parliament, I for one, am thankful to him.
    Now I know you are a Labour mole. try assessing outcomes rather than inputs.

    PS "invested" £5 million is the correct Labspeak.
    Please, everyone knows I'm an extreme far right Monday Club Tory
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    PurseybearPurseybear Posts: 766
    RobD said:

    kjohnw said:

    Squirrel down....squirrel down......

    That squirrel needs retirement. All that pollwatching was pointless.
    Speedy said:

    UKIP up 14% , CON up 4% in Nuneaton.

    Labour to UKIP swing looks to be forming, a pattern emerges now.

    It looks as if the Con vote is losing much less than Lab and LD to the kippers

    have we heard from compouter tonight??? or Gabble, or Tim, or BJO
    compouter teased everyone with "EICIPM" five minutes before the exit poll was announced, which was quite worrying (we won't forget that!), and BJO has been around. Still waiting on IOS to comment on LABs ground game....titter
    I wonder if he was stoking his bet fair position?
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    ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,181

    Late to the party - but where is the second Green seat being predicted?

    Norwich South I assume.
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    SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,713
    Cameron doesn't have to give the SNP anything at all....
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Chortle

    @LabourEoin: Still see no reason, whatsoever, to change my view that David Cameron's career is over.
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    alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    Artist said:

    Change in seat: South Antrim to UUP.

    One seat off the Con/DUP dream team?
    Are Con/UUP not aligned, or did that arrangement end?
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    oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,833
    Lab - hold Oxford East - not a surprise there.
This discussion has been closed.