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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The first litmus test Nuneaton is a Tory Hold with a 3% swi

SystemSystem Posts: 12,217
edited May 2015 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The first litmus test Nuneaton is a Tory Hold with a 3% swing to Con from Lab

Declaration nuneaton now.. Conservatives INCrease majority over labour from 2000 to 5000…. Extraordinary.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664
    edited May 2015
    YAY!!!!!

    Just do not believe this.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,655
    How long before the first LibDem hold? (if ever)
  • kjohnwkjohnw Posts: 1,456
    con maj nailed on !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
  • PurseybearPurseybear Posts: 766
    That is astonishing! 3% swing to Cons in Nuneaton.

    Tory majority? 1992?!
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,044
    YES!
  • EICIPMEICIPM Posts: 55
    Over and out.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,950
    Remarkably good result.

    Heh...
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    Cameron is so bad at politics, isn't he?
  • PurseybearPurseybear Posts: 766
    I wonder if Sky or BBC will call a result soon? And if so who's first to go for a majority? Could it happen? Yes.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Overall majority now looks in reach for the Conservatives. It might be in double figures.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,044
    Paging IOS.
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    Labour will struggle to reach 220 if they continue in this way
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,533
    What does Cameron do about a problem called Scotland?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,031
    Nuneaton - another swing TO the Tories, another LD deposit in the bin.
    There's a pattern emerging here...
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415
    Tuck me will Labour reach 200 :E
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Tory majority nailed on....sigh.

    Night all.
  • Eh_ehm_a_ehEh_ehm_a_eh Posts: 552
    Margaret Curran stiff upper liping as she arrives at count. Or she's had a few.
  • kjohnwkjohnw Posts: 1,456
    landslide on the way!!!!!
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    PARTY TIME!!!!!

    And under CON I lose my pension tax relief one year later than LAB!!!

    £8,000 up!!!! (BE nice if George forgets about the policy entirely!)
  • CopperSulphateCopperSulphate Posts: 1,119
    I honestly can't believe some of these results. Labour being given a well deserved boot up the arse.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited May 2015
    UKIP up 14% , CON up 4% in Nuneaton.

    Labour to UKIP swing looks to be forming, a pattern emerges now.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,031
    antifrank said:

    Overall majority now looks in reach for the Conservatives. It might be in double figures.

    This could be a majority - 1992 redux?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,044
    Awaiting with glee the update to the BBC forecast.
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    Conservatives confident in Hastings
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,672
    How do the Tories not get an overall majority from here?
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,500
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Cameron is so bad at politics, isn't he?

    A lucky general, says all the jealous losers. :-)
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    This is a disaster. What we really, really, really want is Lucy Powell on TV right now!

    Denied...
  • kjohnwkjohnw Posts: 1,456
    Nuneaton 0.7% swing from labour to con!!!!!
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,688
    I will ask again. Are UKIP actually helping the Tories in some of these seats by taking votes from Labour?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,655
    Yeovil... Laws in trouble
  • TW1R64TW1R64 Posts: 56
    At least the Kinnock Prince has been elected. Maybe Labour might make the connection as to why they're doing so badly elsewhere!
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    edited May 2015
    Pollsters .....WHY? WHY????
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,142
    rcs1000 said:

    How long before the first LibDem hold? (if ever)

    Bermondsey, I reckon. Hughes is properly bedded in there.

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,950
    Squirrel down....squirrel down......
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,533
    edited May 2015
    Blunkett looks like he is going to break down. Good on him for telling it like it is, and not giving it the party guff.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,975
    https://twitter.com/robfordmancs/status/596477957784338432
  • FlightpathlFlightpathl Posts: 1,243
    Curse of new thread.
    You have ruined my line.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Yeovil glum Lib Dem faces!!
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,927
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    What does Cameron do about a problem called Scotland?

    Federal UK incoming.
  • GravitationGravitation Posts: 287
    Lib Dems in Yeovil 'looking glum'. Would be extraordinary if it fell.
  • MyBurningEarsMyBurningEars Posts: 3,651
    I am tired and I need sleep and I have a carpet being fitted early tomorrow morning that I absolutely have to be up for but

    I WANT BALLS TONIGHT

    and I think I'm just going to be too tempted to stay up for it.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Cameron is so bad at politics, isn't he?

    Almost as bad as George Osborne.......pity tim hasn't shown up....
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,655
    Mortimer said:

    rcs1000 said:

    How long before the first LibDem hold? (if ever)

    Bermondsey, I reckon. Hughes is properly bedded in there.

    Doubt it...
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,975
    Richard_Tyndall said:

    I will ask again. Are UKIP actually helping the Tories in some of these seats by taking votes from Labour?

    it looks like it
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    Spreadex con 321.5 .......... touching distance now.
  • CopperSulphateCopperSulphate Posts: 1,119
    What was that house of cards crud about on the BBC?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,711
    Wow. If... 5 Labour losses, 7 Tory gains from Labour and 21 LD gains = very very close to overall majority.
  • Bob__SykesBob__Sykes Posts: 1,179
    Blunkett concedes exit poll is right
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Con Maj is, astonishingly, value @ 2.94
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,975
    https://twitter.com/stepholiverSky/status/596478488586125313
  • ProdicusProdicus Posts: 658
    edited May 2015
    Meanwhile, speaking from Plant Tharg, a Green chap said on Sky that Greens would replace Labour as the main opposition. The reporter didn't spend too long with him.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,044
    Flightpathl said:

    Curse of new thread.
    You have ruined my line.

    On a day like this, we won't hold it against you!
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,313
    Blunkett blaming the electorate for making the wrong decision and voting for economic stability
  • saddenedsaddened Posts: 2,245
    There's a few notable absentees tonight. Can't think why.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,031
    And Clewyd - swing TO Con
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    LD worst result since 1970 (they got 6 then)
  • FensterFenster Posts: 2,115
    Q: Did you overspend?

    A: No.

    I knew that was a killer moment.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @ShippersUnbound: The half dozen people who called me earlier to say Lynton Crosby will never work again in Britain have turned their phones off
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,780
    I'm loving, loving this!!!!
  • PurseybearPurseybear Posts: 766
    I have 10 bets on and if we get a Tory majority I could be set to win 9 of 10 bets. The toss up is either LibDems 11-20 or 0-10 as I'm on both :-)
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,655
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/stepholiverSky/status/596478488586125313

    I'm not a Hemming fan, but I thought he'd hold Yardley
  • CopperSulphateCopperSulphate Posts: 1,119
    Labour list:

    "Reports are things aren’t looking good for Labour in Vale of Clwyd – a Labour-held seat, where they were 2,500 ahead in 2010"
  • FattyBolgerFattyBolger Posts: 299
    Danny565 said:

    Tory majority nailed on....sigh.

    Night all.

    fair play to you Danny565. Its only politics mate, the sun will still rise.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    Richard_Tyndall said:

    I will ask again. Are UKIP actually helping the Tories in some of these seats by taking votes from Labour?

    Hard to tell. There's clearly quite a churn - look at the LibDem figures
  • Bob__SykesBob__Sykes Posts: 1,179
    This is just getting better and better!
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,655
    Ave_it said:

    LD worst result since 1970 (they got 6 then)

    May be worse than that...
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited May 2015
    Looks like the Tories might hit 40% thanks to a complete LD collapse in their favour with UKIP hitting Labour massively.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,780
    saddened said:

    There's a few notable absentees tonight. Can't think why.

    To be fair, some activists might be at counts...
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    Tissue_Price said:

    Con Maj is, astonishingly, value @ 2.94

    Would have thought 1.2 more likely (1/5) DYOR
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,723
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Cameron is so bad at politics, isn't he?

    What will all the critics say about him after this?

    His career sure will have been defined!!!
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited May 2015
    A Tory majority is now the most likely outcome IMO.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,975
    rcs1000 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/stepholiverSky/status/596478488586125313

    I'm not a Hemming fan, but I thought he'd hold Yardley
    So did I, so did Lord Ashcroft
  • FlightpathlFlightpathl Posts: 1,243
    Purseybear said:

    That is astonishing! 3% swing to Cons in Nuneaton.

    Tory majority? 1992?!

    I am beginning to think possible but where from? With a Labour wipe out in Scotland there would have to be a labour wipe out in England.
    Zero LDs?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    What does Cameron do about a problem called Scotland?

    More devolution......

    I think our Nat posters are deluding themselves - the Scots want MPs who will stick up for Scotland, but not independence. The trouble is, they can't tell the difference between 'the SNP' and 'Scotland'.....
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,950
    Laws in trouble in Yeovil - I reported a couple of weeks back that Theresa May was a top Tory who visited the seat - and also said that the BattleBus crew was saying Laws was suffering from his expenses.
  • No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 4,596
    Richard_Tyndall said:

    I will ask again. Are UKIP actually helping the Tories in some of these seats by taking votes from Labour?

    I offer the counter theory of LD to UKIP and direct switchers from Lab to Con.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,533
    Wonder what Ed is going to do with that stone now?
  • kingbongokingbongo Posts: 393
    Bob__Sykes said:

    This is just getting better and better!

    Dave not such a disaster then?
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    rcs1000 said:

    Yeovil... Laws in trouble

    LordA is crap at his polls.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,780
    Catriona Renton ‏@BBCCatrionaR 31 mins31 minutes ago

    Labour's Michael McCann just said to me "I don't need to talk to you, I'm not a politician anymore." #GE2015 #GE15 South Lanarkshire

    looooooool
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    The Tories are putting on net votes at present.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @hugorifkind: THAT'S THE ONE. https://t.co/EZ5nm663QQ
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Anyway, now we now that polls are useless, what are we going to talk about for the next five years?
  • GravitationGravitation Posts: 287
    Prof Curtice moving more towards Con majority. Says Nuneaton should have been Con to Lab swing on exit poll.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Wonder what Ed is going to do with that stone now?

    edstone for Labour's political grave.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Tory majority.
    My first reaction to the Exit Poll was right.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,657
    John Curtiss calling possible conservative majority - Peter Kellner struggling on polls
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Free money available on Tory maj:

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/#/politics/market/1.101416490
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,044
    1992 redux? Last time the forecast got better and better for the Tories as the night progressed.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,655
    Flightpathl said:

    Purseybear said:

    That is astonishing! 3% swing to Cons in Nuneaton.

    Tory majority? 1992?!

    I am beginning to think possible but where from? With a Labour wipe out in Scotland there would have to be a labour wipe out in England.
    Zero LDs?
    That seems unlikely. But it's possible I guess. Exit poll has Clegg ahead in Hallam.

    If he's the only MP, I guess he gets to stay leader :-)0
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,688
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Richard_Tyndall said:

    I will ask again. Are UKIP actually helping the Tories in some of these seats by taking votes from Labour?

    Hard to tell. There's clearly quite a churn - look at the LibDem figures
    Agreed. I just can't get my head around the idea that voters are jumping straight from the Lib Dems to UKIP.
  • FensterFenster Posts: 2,115
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Wonder what Ed is going to do with that stone now?

    People were on here talking about threesomes earlier, perhaps he the stone and the Eagle brothers can have a naughty night in with it. The Eagles would know where to put it.

  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,500
    CarlottaVance said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Cameron is so bad at politics, isn't he?

    Almost as bad as George Osborne.......pity tim hasn't shown up....
    Anybody got a link to his twitter? ;-)
  • PurseybearPurseybear Posts: 766
    Flightpathl said:

    Purseybear said:

    That is astonishing! 3% swing to Cons in Nuneaton.

    Tory majority? 1992?!

    I am beginning to think possible but where from? With a Labour wipe out in Scotland there would have to be a labour wipe out in England.
    Zero LDs?
    Because, and I did point this out to Mike, the number of Cons gains from LDs may, just may, outweigh any net losses to Labour.
  • currystarcurrystar Posts: 1,171
    Tick tock . Nick p . Haha
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    LD could get less than 10. This feels like 1987.

    Tories, perfectly understandably euphoric, must be hoping for 325. Being dependent on DUP will be no fun.

    Scotland is lost. Half of NI will be lost now. It was a silent province. May not be anymore.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,142
    Is there a chance that LD could cease to exist as a party?
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    Scott_P said:

    @ShippersUnbound: The half dozen people who called me earlier to say Lynton Crosby will never work again in Britain have turned their phones off

    A little early yet to celebrate, but I feel alot of humble pie will be eaten later this morning.
  • Bob__SykesBob__Sykes Posts: 1,179
    The GE2015 book is going to make fascinating reading when it comes out!
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,711
    This does feel like a dream.
This discussion has been closed.