What about the scenario where Labour join the SNP in voting down a Tory queen speech, but then decline to form a government themselves. That would lead to a second election, right? One in which the SNP's "vote us, you'll still get Labour" argument would be diminished, and the Tories' "vote Labour, you'll get SNP" will be dead.
Problem with that is Labour would be perceived as
i) gutless ii) wreckers, trying to force a re-run of an election they had just lost
I would go so far as to say the the Constitution expects the Leader of the Opposition to step up to the plate in such a scenario, or not bother bringing down the government...
Yeah, if Labour were significantly behind this would likely be the case. If it was closer, I'm not so sure. I think in England Labour would get credit for not doing a deal with the SNP if that was clearly an option.
Ludicrous. It would sanction parties bringing each other down, with repeated returns to the polls until someone secured a majority. UK Plc would meantime go down the U-bend...
I really don't think there's any great public feeling that Labour has a duty not to vote against the Conservatives. If a party doesn't want to be voted down, they need to have a majority who either support them or who they've reached an agreement with not to vote against them. That's the way everyone expects it to be.
Miliband would have caused a Constitutional crisis.
But you wouldn't put it past him to do just that though, that's the problem.
An absolute guess, but as Turner comes after Nolan, have they just been cut in the wrong place? If so, printer error?
Yep - two missing candidates Karl Turner (Labour) Sarah Walpole (Green)
(UKIP to win Hull as their candidate comes first. All Candidates to change their name to mr/mrs/miss Aaron ........Aaaainsworth in 2020.) (dots come before letters in Ascii)
There was also apparently an error in one or more of the Newcastle seats in the Instructions To Postal Voters . The section missed out one word and instructed voters to vote for more than one candidate .
I think this law against tax rises might be the dumbest pledge of the campaign so far. Hopefully some respected former chancellors come out against it, I expect Ken Clarke thinks the idea is barking mad.
Has Cameron been hanging around with Grover Norquist or something? This is the kind of idiot litmus test GOP candidates have to pledge.
It's economically insane, but electorally well timed
Totally bonkers. In fact most of the 'pass a law to prevent/make government doing/do something' ideas are bonkers.
Using legislature to signal policy intent is no way to run a country sensibly and a worrying trend.
With the SNP even more leftie than the Labour Party; on a par with the Communist Party in many respects. Will the next government fortify our border with Scotland? England will need to stop these ravaging Picts from infesting the North.
The Tories are more leftie than labour nowadays, a centre left SNP government will do well with only London right wing parties as competition.
Yes, there is a massive gap in the market for a right wing Scottish party. Either a renamed Tory breakaway (if the Tories are sensible) or a brand new party. Even a well-disguised UKIP offshoot would work if it was done very well and certain people were kept away from it *cough*David Coburn*cough*.
My final (long) blogpost before GE2015. Rehearsing out my thoughts on GE2010, minor party positions for GE2015, potential seat bands, and potential next government compositions:
An excellent piece. Scan reading it I think UKIP coalition can be ruled out. Labour abstaining the QS motion is a possibility though, which perhaps means there can be a Conservative Gov't on 285 seats or so - not necessarily lead by Dave...
Many thanks for your kind words, Pulpstar.
Yes, you could be right. A Conservative seat tally of 285+ is interesting.
If the Lib Dems did, by some miracle, walk away with 30 seats, and the DUP could be squared, a temporary arrangement on Con - 286, LD - 30, DUP - 9 could perhaps be reached to govern for a year or so.
I think the Lib Dems under Clegg might go for that if LD+Lab was < Conservatives, and the alternative was a shaky Lab-SNP deal.
Lab + SNP + LD coalition seems nailed on.
The Conservative poster showing Militwat in Salmond's pocket is spot-on accurate.
You have to hand it the Tories: their characterisation of Labour's leader always is spot-on accurate. Who now would seriously dispute the 'demon eyes' characterisation of Blair, for example?
Miliband in the SNP pocket - same thing. Labouroids are angry about it because they know it's true.
Miss Plato, a few days ago I explained the pre-decimal system of currency we had to an American (he'd read something about Thatcher looking forward to decimalisation), and his gast was utterly flabbered by it.
I rather like the bonkers old systems. There's something soulless about the metric system.
If we do get an EU referendum (which is won by IN) will UKIP get a similar boost in 2020?
Great question, and note that even more than the Scottish promise, the referendum will have been won based on a claim of powers to be returned in future, and "out" voters will be hopping mad at what they'll see as a scam.
As was pointed out on the utterly brilliant 'Ballot Monkeys' last night, even if Brand had come out and told all his supporters - that he had previously told not to vote - to now vote Labour, the chances are they wouldn't be able to because Miliband was so stupid he waited until after the last registration date had passed before he made an approach to Brand.
The ineptitude of Labour 's Stephen Timms on BB 5Live is unparalleled. He repeated the economic lie that a rise in the minimum wage will generate higher tax receipts. It won't, in fact it will probably produce lower tax receipts.
Increasing the pay of low paid employees, (who probably won't be paying tax anyhow), will reduce the taxable profits of their employers by the same amount so the employers tax will go down.
I think this law against tax rises might be the dumbest pledge of the campaign so far. Hopefully some respected former chancellors come out against it, I expect Ken Clarke thinks the idea is barking mad.
Has Cameron been hanging around with Grover Norquist or something? This is the kind of idiot litmus test GOP candidates have to pledge.
It's economically insane, but electorally well timed
Totally bonkers. In fact most of the 'pass a law to prevent/make government doing/do something' ideas are bonkers.
Using legislature to signal policy intent is no way to run a country sensibly and a worrying trend.
I understand why the politicians have done this - pledges have been devalued by broken promises in the past, so they have to ratchet up the words for the electorate to take them seriously.
The problem is that at some point circumstances will force a government to repeal such a silly law and this will then devalue the law in the eyes of the electorate.
It's one of the things that makes our politics so fracking rubbish at the moment.
Murphy must be close to having a breakdown live on National TV now.
Which channel?
Talking generally. His count should be fun to watch.
I know. PB's "The Future Leader of Labour" losing his seat will be a nice dessert after the Clegg main course.
I really dislike leaders who lead their party to sure oblivion. When the ship sinks the captain must go with it.
If it happens, it will hardly be Murphy's fault. The ship was set on course for the reef and the steering disabled ages before he got to the bridge.
I disagree. Most here were sure that Murphy would be the salvation of SLAB, only a very few (including my self) predicted that he would make matters even worse because he is a bad fit for the average scottish voter.
Murphy was such a bad captain he sunk his ship before it even hit the reef.
An absolute guess, but as Turner comes after Nolan, have they just been cut in the wrong place? If so, printer error?
Yep - two missing candidates Karl Turner (Labour) Sarah Walpole (Green)
(UKIP to win Hull as their candidate comes first. All Candidates to change their name to mr/mrs/miss Aaron ........Aaaainsworth in 2020.) (dots come before letters in Ascii)
There was also apparently an error in one or more of the Newcastle seats in the Instructions To Postal Voters . The section missed out one word and instructed voters to vote for more than one candidate .
Really? Do councils not have these things proof read then formally signed off by a number of people??
I was taught by our very keen pre-history teacher about cubits and hands and all things unmetric.
It's so wonderfully colourful. I hate metric bar millimetres which are great for tiny things in DIY or centilitres for chemistry calculations - otherwise, I'm all Imperial and mentally turn everything metric back into Imperial to get a visual feel for it.
Miss Plato, a few days ago I explained the pre-decimal system of currency we had to an American (he'd read something about Thatcher looking forward to decimalisation), and his gast was utterly flabbered by it.
I rather like the bonkers old systems. There's something soulless about the metric system.
As was pointed out on the utterly brilliant 'Ballot Monkeys' last night, even if Brand had come out and told all his supporters - that he had previously told not to vote - to now vote Labour, the chances are they wouldn't be able to because Miliband was so stupid he waited until after the last registration date had passed before he made an approach to Brand.
+1 for 'Ballot Monkeys' - it was obviously written, filmed and edited only a couple of hours before it went out, while remaining impartial enough to lampoon everyone. Great work by the production team at C4.
Murphy must be close to having a breakdown live on National TV now.
Which channel?
Talking generally. His count should be fun to watch.
I know. PB's "The Future Leader of Labour" losing his seat will be a nice dessert after the Clegg main course.
I really dislike leaders who lead their party to sure oblivion. When the ship sinks the captain must go with it.
If it happens, it will hardly be Murphy's fault. The ship was set on course for the reef and the steering disabled ages before he got to the bridge.
Who was the captain of the ship who set the course & struck the reef ?
Miliband took over a party in 2010 in a commanding position in Scotland, and has presided over one disastrous decision after another. It was the win by the SNP in Holyrood in 2011 that led to the Indyref.
Behind the scenes, there must be some Labour apparatchniks absolutely furious with Miliband.
As was pointed out on the utterly brilliant 'Ballot Monkeys' last night, even if Brand had come out and told all his supporters - that he had previously told not to vote - to now vote Labour, the chances are they wouldn't be able to because Miliband was so stupid he waited until after the last registration date had passed before he made an approach to Brand.
+1 for 'Ballot Monkeys' - it was obviously written, filmed and edited only a couple of hours before it went out, while remaining impartial enough to lampoon everyone. Great work by the production team at C4.
Salmond must really be regretting resigning too quickly.
No. His resignation was one of the most politically brilliant tactical moves ever. He has passed the baton to Sturgeon who is reaching the voters that Salmond couldn't.
Murphy must be close to having a breakdown live on National TV now.
Which channel?
Talking generally. His count should be fun to watch.
I know. PB's "The Future Leader of Labour" losing his seat will be a nice dessert after the Clegg main course.
I really dislike leaders who lead their party to sure oblivion. When the ship sinks the captain must go with it.
If it happens, it will hardly be Murphy's fault. The ship was set on course for the reef and the steering disabled ages before he got to the bridge.
I disagree. Most here were sure that Murphy would be the salvation of SLAB, only a very few (including my self) predicted that he would make matters even worse because he is a bad fit for the average scottish voter.
Murphy was such a bad captain he sunk his ship before it even hit the reef.
According to the latest ratings, it's debateable whether Murphy or Miliband is a bigger liability in Scotland. Murphy has better net ratings, but only because he polls well among Tories. Among the crucial 2010 Lab voters group (and presumably among Lab->SNP defectors), Miliband rated better in the last YouGov.
Salmond must really be regretting resigning too quickly.
No. His resignation was one of the most politically brilliant tactical moves ever. He has passed the baton to Sturgeon who is reaching the voters that Salmond couldn't.
Agreed. Astonishing year in Scottish politics. An upheaval not seen since before WW2.
. +1 for 'Ballot Monkeys' - it was obviously written, filmed and edited only a couple of hours before it went out, while remaining impartial enough to lampoon everyone. Great work by the production team at C4.
the stars of the show were on The One Show last night said they get the scripts at 11am
As was pointed out on the utterly brilliant 'Ballot Monkeys' last night, even if Brand had come out and told all his supporters - that he had previously told not to vote - to now vote Labour, the chances are they wouldn't be able to because Miliband was so stupid he waited until after the last registration date had passed before he made an approach to Brand.
So far today Miliband is crap, dangerous, loony, unconstitutional, patronising, stupid, mad.
I will add underestimated as 35% appear willing to vote for him and EICIPM is still favourite according to Betfair and Kelner
What about the scenario where Labour join the SNP in voting down a Tory queen speech, but then decline to form a government themselves. That would lead to a second election, right? One in which the SNP's "vote us, you'll still get Labour" argument would be diminished, and the Tories' "vote Labour, you'll get SNP" will be dead.
Problem with that is Labour would be perceived as
i) gutless ii) wreckers, trying to force a re-run of an election they had just lost
I would go so far as to say the the Constitution expects the Leader of the Opposition to step up to the plate in such a scenario, or not bother bringing down the government...
Yeah, if Labour were significantly behind this would likely be the case. If it was closer, I'm not so sure. I think in England Labour would get credit for not doing a deal with the SNP if that was clearly an option.
Ludicrous. It would sanction parties bringing each other down, with repeated returns to the polls until someone secured a majority. UK Plc would meantime go down the U-bend...
Exactly, that's why this country must never accept your cockamanie idea of changing voting to PR.
Under PR, a majority is almost impossible, so there would be no point trying that gambit.
I've never believed that the SNP is going to do quite as well as the polls suggest. I can well see canny Scots telling pollsters they'll vote SNP even though they have no intentions of so doing.
But on these sort of numbers, clearly swathes of Labour and LD seats will fall.
And of course, that's as much a disaster for Dave as it is Ed, because he needs LD seats to either go Tory or stay LD if he wants to re-boot the Coalition - his only chance of survival realistically. Seeing them go Labour or SNP is a disaster for him.
What the STV reporting might do is stiffen unionist resolve and encourage more tactical voting.
If we do get an EU referendum (which is won by IN) will UKIP get a similar boost in 2020?
Great question. I'd be looking to back UKIP for wins in their strong areas for c.20 seats in 2020 if a 2nd Tory/LD coalition is formed.
Anecdotal - Still not a single Labour poster up in my very strong Labour ward, plenty of England flags still up. No UKIP posters either, mind.
Tbh, I've only seen one poster in my town all campaign. And this is a semi-marginal. Don't recall seeing many in 2010 either though.
I'm in a marginal (Brentford and Isleworth) and despite being in a Tory part of the constituency, I've only seen a couple of Labour and one LibDem poster.
Murphy must be close to having a breakdown live on National TV now.
Which channel?
Talking generally. His count should be fun to watch.
I know. PB's "The Future Leader of Labour" losing his seat will be a nice dessert after the Clegg main course.
I really dislike leaders who lead their party to sure oblivion. When the ship sinks the captain must go with it.
If it happens, it will hardly be Murphy's fault. The ship was set on course for the reef and the steering disabled ages before he got to the bridge.
Who was the captain of the ship who set the course & struck the reef ?
Miliband took over a party in 2010 in a commanding position in Scotland, and has presided over one disastrous decision after another. It was the win by the SNP in Holyrood in 2011 that led to the Indyref.
Behind the scenes, there must be some Labour apparatchniks absolutely furious with Miliband.
Miliband isn't fully to blame either. He was on the previous watch, despite not knowing anything about navigation. He mistook a bank sheet of paper for a maritime chart.
It's probably a longstanding thing: as someone said on here recently, Scottish Labour just thought that saying "We're not the Tories" would work forever. They were utterly complacent and lethargic.
The fact that utter numpties like Jim Devine could become SLab MPs (and in fact he was even party chairman) shows the problem they had. As does the Falkirk controversy.
And there's a thought: I wonder if some of their problems have been accentuated by Falkirk?
I was taught by our very keen pre-history teacher about cubits and hands and all things unmetric.
It's so wonderfully colourful. I hate metric bar millimetres which are great for tiny things in DIY or centilitres for chemistry calculations - otherwise, I'm all Imperial and mentally turn everything metric back into Imperial to get a visual feel for it.
Miss Plato, a few days ago I explained the pre-decimal system of currency we had to an American (he'd read something about Thatcher looking forward to decimalisation), and his gast was utterly flabbered by it.
I rather like the bonkers old systems. There's something soulless about the metric system.
As was pointed out on the utterly brilliant 'Ballot Monkeys' last night, even if Brand had come out and told all his supporters - that he had previously told not to vote - to now vote Labour, the chances are they wouldn't be able to because Miliband was so stupid he waited until after the last registration date had passed before he made an approach to Brand.
+1 for 'Ballot Monkeys' - it was obviously written, filmed and edited only a couple of hours before it went out, while remaining impartial enough to lampoon everyone. Great work by the production team at C4.
Miliband becoming PM but losing his shadow foreign secretary is not unprecedented. I happened to Wilson in 1964 when Patrick Gordon walker was defeated at Smethwick. Patrick Gordon walker was still made foreign secretary, IIRC, but finally had to stand down when he lost a by-election at Leyton. I wonder what the future holds for Dougie. The youth of his opponent might be no barrier as I remember a 21 year old called Charles Kennedy surprising everyone by ousting Hamish Gray in the Highlands in 1983.
If we do get an EU referendum (which is won by IN) will UKIP get a similar boost in 2020?
Great question. I'd be looking to back UKIP for wins in their strong areas for c.20 seats in 2020 if a 2nd Tory/LD coalition is formed.
Anecdotal - Still not a single Labour poster up in my very strong Labour ward, plenty of England flags still up. No UKIP posters either, mind.
Tbh, I've only seen one poster in my town all campaign. And this is a semi-marginal. Don't recall seeing many in 2010 either though.
I'm in a marginal (Brentford and Isleworth) and despite being in a Tory part of the constituency, I've only seen a couple of Labour and one LibDem poster.
I haven't seen many posters, but I have been deluged with mail (mostly from Labour) exhorting be to vote for them.
I'm not sure if Labour are really letting the change in Scotland sink in. At the moment they have not lost yet. All those time servers and heavyweights are still drawing salary. The equaivalent of someone heading to bankruptcy, hoping against hhope that the lottery will come through as the reality of it all is too awful.
The day after on the other hand, with all those P45's and no power of status the bunfight will truly begin and the blame game will begin. At the same time the strategic geniuses in London will be trying to secure Downing street at all costs. I have no belief that will do anything that will be better for the long term. As they believe they are the god guys anything that needs to be done at whatever short term cost to the country, and long term cost to the Union.
As to Scotland I'm sure they believe they can win those seats back, that it's all a short term problem etc. But so far the SNP have barely put a foot wrong they are on course to breaking peoples long term party loyalties, they won't give up these seats without a fight and I'm sure new grievences against the English can be manufactured with a little bit of provocation.
I suspect the Labout party will move through the stages of grief, changing back and forth from denial to anger, blame and then acceptance. At the end of it (assuming this change in Scotland is permanent) then the Labour Party might as well be known as London Labour with all the potential problems that will provide in the Long term for it's Northern heartlands.
UKIP or something like them could provide an alternative to Labout there if they are not careful. People don't like being taking granted for, as soon as they see a viable alternative they can break old allegiances.
This proposed whitewash is almost impossible. Orkney & Shetland is about as safe a seat as the LDs have, and I suspect they'll hold on to a couple more at least.
By "they'll hold onto a couple more" do you mean LDs or non-SNP?
Ha! LDs. Not 'LibLabCon'. In terms of a couple more, I was thinking Thurso plus one of Kennedy, Swinson or Alexander.
Swinson is the only one who remotely has a chance of those three.
The labour vote is going to drop off a cliff in East Dunbartonshire, IMO
Any betting worth doing on Labour lost deposits in Scotland?
Sadly, Nae.
The only reasonable bet I could find was on labour to drop below the tories in ayr carrick & cumnock.
I've never believed that the SNP is going to do quite as well as the polls suggest. I can well see canny Scots telling pollsters they'll vote SNP even though they have no intentions of so doing.
But on these sort of numbers, clearly swathes of Labour and LD seats will fall.
And of course, that's as much a disaster for Dave as it is Ed, because he needs LD seats to either go Tory or stay LD if he wants to re-boot the Coalition - his only chance of survival realistically. Seeing them go Labour or SNP is a disaster for him.
What the STV reporting might do is stiffen unionist resolve and encourage more tactical voting.
With Labour on 20% it is unclear in places like Ayr if the correct tactical choice even is Labour !
They'll be hopeful in Edinburgh West too. The borders all have 2 unionist challengers, except DCT and they'll be expecting to come second now in Murphy's seat. This poll makes Tactical voting less likely than before imo.
As was pointed out on the utterly brilliant 'Ballot Monkeys' last night, even if Brand had come out and told all his supporters - that he had previously told not to vote - to now vote Labour, the chances are they wouldn't be able to because Miliband was so stupid he waited until after the last registration date had passed before he made an approach to Brand.
So far today Miliband is crap, dangerous, loony, unconstitutional, patronising, stupid, mad.
I will add underestimated as 35% appear willing to vote for him and EICIPM is still favourite according to Betfair and Kelner
So you think it was a bright idea to wait until after registration had closed before trying to persuade the main advocate of non-voting to change his mind?
What about the scenario where Labour join the SNP in voting down a Tory queen speech, but then decline to form a government themselves. That would lead to a second election, right? One in which the SNP's "vote us, you'll still get Labour" argument would be diminished, and the Tories' "vote Labour, you'll get SNP" will be dead.
Problem with that is Labour would be perceived as
i) gutless ii) wreckers, trying to force a re-run of an election they had just lost
I would go so far as to say the the Constitution expects the Leader of the Opposition to step up to the plate in such a scenario, or not bother bringing down the government...
Yeah, if Labour were significantly behind this would likely be the case. If it was closer, I'm not so sure. I think in England Labour would get credit for not doing a deal with the SNP if that was clearly an option.
Ludicrous. It would sanction parties bringing each other down, with repeated returns to the polls until someone secured a majority. UK Plc would meantime go down the U-bend...
Exactly, that's why this country must never accept your cockamanie idea of changing voting to PR.
Under PR, a majority is almost impossible, so there would be no point trying that gambit.
Swing in Sotland isn't Universal, Ashcroft polls suggest SNP do better than Universal Swing.
They do better than UNS in every constituency ? Only "Natlogic" could come up with that..
No, they'll do worse than UNS in Edinburgh. But lower swings are needed there. They'll outperform in Glasgow and the west where the 50+% majorities need to be toppled. They also do worse in LD/Con seats - hence Berwickshire and DCT having lower swings.
How will they do in the five straight SNP/Con seats? That's an interesting dynamic
The SNP seats are easy holds. Perth North Perthshire is not a 1-1000 shot though.
Oh yes, I wasn't suggesting they would not take them! More I think the swing may be rather small in Perth, Angus, Moray, Banff etc - their opposition is holding on as opposed to collapsing there.
I'd expect Dundee East and Western Isles to have comfortably the largest majorities in Scotland.
We could have a PB competition, predict SLAB's best performance with a tie breaker on who comes closest to the actual majority %.
I'd have the top contenders down as;
Glasgow NE E. Renfrewshire Ed S Aberdeen S
Any I'm missing?
Dumfries Galloway Dumferline West Fife Rutherglen, Hamilton ?
Which seat is Dougie Alexander and his 17000 majority? Apparently he's standing against a 20 yr old student. Must have a chance surely?
A chance maybe, but a slim one. Mhairi Black is sweeping all before her (and good for her!).
SLAB was already taking on water before Murphy turned up. 2011 Scottish Elections was the first major sign - all the polls said the SNP would be out of office. In fact, they got a majority. Labour's election campaign just collapsed and was unable to keep up with the rising SNP popularity.
History is repeating itself.
As one Labour activist put it to me, SLAB couldn't "organise a piss up in a brewery". There was no structure, no organisation or local leadership to deal with the SNP. All SLAB MP's more or less focus on Westminster, not Scotland.
I was taught by our very keen pre-history teacher about cubits and hands and all things unmetric.
It's so wonderfully colourful. I hate metric bar millimetres which are great for tiny things in DIY or centilitres for chemistry calculations - otherwise, I'm all Imperial and mentally turn everything metric back into Imperial to get a visual feel for it.
Miss Plato, a few days ago I explained the pre-decimal system of currency we had to an American (he'd read something about Thatcher looking forward to decimalisation), and his gast was utterly flabbered by it.
I rather like the bonkers old systems. There's something soulless about the metric system.
While I broadly enjoy the colourful nature of imperial measures (the pint, most of all), I draw the line at currency, fun as crowns, ha'pennies and guineas are.
As was pointed out on the utterly brilliant 'Ballot Monkeys' last night, even if Brand had come out and told all his supporters - that he had previously told not to vote - to now vote Labour, the chances are they wouldn't be able to because Miliband was so stupid he waited until after the last registration date had passed before he made an approach to Brand.
+1 for 'Ballot Monkeys' - it was obviously written, filmed and edited only a couple of hours before it went out, while remaining impartial enough to lampoon everyone. Great work by the production team at C4.
They were excellent a few days ago, on Milifandom -1 when the American one from Episodes consultant said: we must expose Ed more and lo...the next day - Milifandom.
Worth recalling the massive SNP surge and Labour collapse shown in the opinion polls for Holyrood 2011. Then, as now, lots of people couldn't believe it, and thought that on the day Labour would do better than the polls were predicting.
It didn't work out like that. In fact if anything Labour did slightly worse than most polls were showing:
What about the scenario where Labour join the SNP in voting down a Tory queen speech, but then decline to form a government themselves. That would lead to a second election, right? One in which the SNP's "vote us, you'll still get Labour" argument would be diminished, and the Tories' "vote Labour, you'll get SNP" will be dead.
Problem with that is Labour would be perceived as
i) gutless ii) wreckers, trying to force a re-run of an election they had just lost
I would go so far as to say the the Constitution expects the Leader of the Opposition to step up to the plate in such a scenario, or not bother bringing down the government...
Yeah, if Labour were significantly behind this would likely be the case. If it was closer, I'm not so sure. I think in England Labour would get credit for not doing a deal with the SNP if that was clearly an option.
Ludicrous. It would sanction parties bringing each other down, with repeated returns to the polls until someone secured a majority. UK Plc would meantime go down the U-bend...
Exactly, that's why this country must never accept your cockamanie idea of changing voting to PR.
Under PR, a majority is almost impossible, so there would be no point trying that gambit.
Under PR a strong coalition is quite likely and, more to the point people can vote for their first choice rather than tactically. In Scotland the unionist parties would get their ~50% rather than 0%.
This proposed whitewash is almost impossible. Orkney & Shetland is about as safe a seat as the LDs have, and I suspect they'll hold on to a couple more at least.
By "they'll hold onto a couple more" do you mean LDs or non-SNP?
Ha! LDs. Not 'LibLabCon'. In terms of a couple more, I was thinking Thurso plus one of Kennedy, Swinson or Alexander.
Swinson is the only one who remotely has a chance of those three.
The labour vote is going to drop off a cliff in East Dunbartonshire, IMO
Any betting worth doing on Labour lost deposits in Scotland?
Sadly, Nae.
The only reasonable bet I could find was on labour to drop below the tories in ayr carrick & cumnock.
Labour could do with losing some deposits - the sublime efficiency of their previous 41% becomes a terribly inefficient 25% now or w/e.
What about the scenario where Labour join the SNP in voting down a Tory queen speech, but then decline to form a government themselves. That would lead to a second election, right? One in which the SNP's "vote us, you'll still get Labour" argument would be diminished, and the Tories' "vote Labour, you'll get SNP" will be dead.
Problem with that is Labour would be perceived as
i) gutless ii) wreckers, trying to force a re-run of an election they had just lost
I would go so far as to say the the Constitution expects the Leader of the Opposition to step up to the plate in such a scenario, or not bother bringing down the government...
Yeah, if Labour were significantly behind this would likely be the case. If it was closer, I'm not so sure. I think in England Labour would get credit for not doing a deal with the SNP if that was clearly an option.
Ludicrous. It would sanction parties bringing each other down, with repeated returns to the polls until someone secured a majority. UK Plc would meantime go down the U-bend...
Exactly, that's why this country must never accept your cockamanie idea of changing voting to PR.
Under PR, a majority is almost impossible, so there would be no point trying that gambit.
Rod, even PR^2?
A majority would be possible, but about as unlikely as currently under FPTP.
Miliband becoming PM but losing his shadow foreign secretary is not unprecedented. I happened to Wilson in 1964 when Patrick Gordon walker was defeated at Smethwick. Patrick Gordon walker was still made foreign secretary, IIRC, but finally had to stand down when he lost a by-election at Leyton. I wonder what the future holds for Dougie. The youth of his opponent might be no barrier as I remember a 21 year old called Charles Kennedy surprising everyone by ousting Hamish Gray in the Highlands in 1983.
As was pointed out on the utterly brilliant 'Ballot Monkeys' last night, even if Brand had come out and told all his supporters - that he had previously told not to vote - to now vote Labour, the chances are they wouldn't be able to because Miliband was so stupid he waited until after the last registration date had passed before he made an approach to Brand.
So far today Miliband is crap, dangerous, loony, unconstitutional, patronising, stupid, mad.
I will add underestimated as 35% appear willing to vote for him and EICIPM is still favourite according to Betfair and Kelner
So you think it was a bright idea to wait until after registration had closed before trying to persuade the main advocate of non-voting to change his mind?
No wonder you support Miliband.
You only had to register to vote if you weren't already registered at your address didnt you?
Worth recalling the massive SNP surge and Labour collapse shown in the opinion polls for Holyrood 2011. Then, as now, lots of people couldn't believe it, and thought that on the day Labour would do better than the polls were predicting.
It didn't work out like that. In fact if anything Labour did slightly worse than most polls were showing:
+1 for 'Ballot Monkeys' - it was obviously written, filmed and edited only a couple of hours before it went out, while remaining impartial enough to lampoon everyone. Great work by the production team at C4.
did like the little bit about the rebutting the rebuttal and checking the rebutted rebuttal. it was like some of the posts on here.
I was taught by our very keen pre-history teacher about cubits and hands and all things unmetric.
It's so wonderfully colourful. I hate metric bar millimetres which are great for tiny things in DIY or centilitres for chemistry calculations - otherwise, I'm all Imperial and mentally turn everything metric back into Imperial to get a visual feel for it.
Miss Plato, a few days ago I explained the pre-decimal system of currency we had to an American (he'd read something about Thatcher looking forward to decimalisation), and his gast was utterly flabbered by it.
I rather like the bonkers old systems. There's something soulless about the metric system.
Maybe it's my interest in WW1 and WW2 battleships as a teen, but I know without Googling that 12 inches is 305 mm (eg. main guns on HMS Dreadnought), 13.5 inches is 343 mm (eg. HMS Iron Duke), 14 inches is 356 mm (eg. HMS Canada), 15 inches is 381 mm (eg. HMS Hood), 16 inches is 406 mm (eg. HMS Nelson) and 18 inches is 457 mm (eg. Japan's Yamato).
If we do get an EU referendum (which is won by IN) will UKIP get a similar boost in 2020?
Great question. I'd be looking to back UKIP for wins in their strong areas for c.20 seats in 2020 if a 2nd Tory/LD coalition is formed.
Anecdotal - Still not a single Labour poster up in my very strong Labour ward, plenty of England flags still up. No UKIP posters either, mind.
Tbh, I've only seen one poster in my town all campaign. And this is a semi-marginal. Don't recall seeing many in 2010 either though.
I'm in a marginal (Brentford and Isleworth) and despite being in a Tory part of the constituency, I've only seen a couple of Labour and one LibDem poster.
I haven't seen many posters, but I have been deluged with mail (mostly from Labour) exhorting be to vote for them.
Very few mailings still in Bury South. Apart from the Labour leaflets, some time ago now, we had a UKIP leaflet at the weekend. Which caused some amusement - the candidate openly confirms he is an Irish immigrant who came to the UK to study French and German, no less, at Salford University and has stayed ever since, and used to work as an immigration officer.
I think you must have joined the wrong party, Seamus...
I was taught by our very keen pre-history teacher about cubits and hands and all things unmetric.
It's so wonderfully colourful. I hate metric bar millimetres which are great for tiny things in DIY or centilitres for chemistry calculations - otherwise, I'm all Imperial and mentally turn everything metric back into Imperial to get a visual feel for it.
Miss Plato, a few days ago I explained the pre-decimal system of currency we had to an American (he'd read something about Thatcher looking forward to decimalisation), and his gast was utterly flabbered by it.
I rather like the bonkers old systems. There's something soulless about the metric system.
Worth recalling the massive SNP surge and Labour collapse shown in the opinion polls for Holyrood 2011. Then, as now, lots of people couldn't believe it, and thought that on the day Labour would do better than the polls were predicting.
It didn't work out like that. In fact if anything Labour did slightly worse than most polls were showing:
What about the scenario where Labour join the SNP in voting down a Tory queen speech, but then decline to form a government themselves. That would lead to a second election, right? One in which the SNP's "vote us, you'll still get Labour" argument would be diminished, and the Tories' "vote Labour, you'll get SNP" will be dead.
Problem with that is Labour would be perceived as
i) gutless ii) wreckers, trying to force a re-run of an election they had just lost
I would go so far as to say the the Constitution expects the Leader of the Opposition to step up to the plate in such a scenario, or not bother bringing down the government...
Yeah, if Labour were significantly behind this would likely be the case. If it was closer, I'm not so sure. I think in England Labour would get credit for not doing a deal with the SNP if that was clearly an option.
Ludicrous. It would sanction parties bringing each other down, with repeated returns to the polls until someone secured a majority. UK Plc would meantime go down the U-bend...
Exactly, that's why this country must never accept your cockamanie idea of changing voting to PR.
Under PR, a majority is almost impossible, so there would be no point trying that gambit.
Under PR a strong coalition is quite likely and, more to the point people can vote for their first choice rather than tactically. In Scotland the unionist parties would get their ~50% rather than 0%.
Worth recalling the massive SNP surge and Labour collapse shown in the opinion polls for Holyrood 2011. Then, as now, lots of people couldn't believe it, and thought that on the day Labour would do better than the polls were predicting.
It didn't work out like that. In fact if anything Labour did slightly worse than most polls were showing:
I think that's 0.2% annualised, so actually zero growth, in essence.
That puts our 0.3% in context. We are growing much faster than the USA, but the world economy is slowing.
Krugman is as we speak busy penning an article saying how awesome Obama handling of the economy is despite tough conditions and how the UK Coalition has trashed ours.
Jim Murphy’s performance as Labour leader in Scotland has failed to impress voters in its working-class heartland, according to participants in the third of the Financial Times’ pre-election focus groups.
None of them said they were pleased with Mr Murphy, on whom Labour has pinned its hopes of a renaissance in Scotland.
“He is very rightwing for a Labour leader,” said Craig Johnstone, a call-centre manager planning to vote for the Scottish National party in next month’s general election. Mr Johnstone’s comments suggested the SNP’s attempts to highlight Mr Murphy’s background on the Blairite wing of the party are having an impact.
Others said Mr Murphy’s style of delivery might be failing to engender confidence. “He looks like a bag of nerves now,” said Natalie Dines, a former Labour voter now thinking of moving to the Conservatives.
One risk for Mr Murphy appears to be his association with the party in Westminster; he served in a number of front-bench positions in the last Labour government. Tommy Fulton, another Labour voter, said: “His appointment has put me off voting Labour . . . he has just come up from London.”
I was taught by our very keen pre-history teacher about cubits and hands and all things unmetric.
It's so wonderfully colourful. I hate metric bar millimetres which are great for tiny things in DIY or centilitres for chemistry calculations - otherwise, I'm all Imperial and mentally turn everything metric back into Imperial to get a visual feel for it.
Miss Plato, a few days ago I explained the pre-decimal system of currency we had to an American (he'd read something about Thatcher looking forward to decimalisation), and his gast was utterly flabbered by it.
I rather like the bonkers old systems. There's something soulless about the metric system.
I was taught by our very keen pre-history teacher about cubits and hands and all things unmetric.
It's so wonderfully colourful. I hate metric bar millimetres which are great for tiny things in DIY or centilitres for chemistry calculations - otherwise, I'm all Imperial and mentally turn everything metric back into Imperial to get a visual feel for it.
Miss Plato, a few days ago I explained the pre-decimal system of currency we had to an American (he'd read something about Thatcher looking forward to decimalisation), and his gast was utterly flabbered by it.
I rather like the bonkers old systems. There's something soulless about the metric system.
And God it's boring. It will shift not a single vote, for or against. I expect most of his viewers will turn it off after 3 minutes.
Tho if I was a tabloid journo I'd be jumping on the chat about "inequality". Two kitchens Miliband talks in Russell Brand's two million pound house about poor people who don't, like Miliband's wife, earn £200,000 a year.
Short lunch, quick question. Posters may recall my previous questions about sites that offer spread betting on politics, and the consensus seemed to be that there were only two: spreadex and Sporting Index. Neither company's spreads are captured by oddschecker nor archive.org. Are there any online archives of either company's spreads? Free or for pay, doesn't matter.
Jim Murphy’s performance as Labour leader in Scotland has failed to impress voters in its working-class heartland, according to participants in the third of the Financial Times’ pre-election focus groups.
None of them said they were pleased with Mr Murphy, on whom Labour has pinned its hopes of a renaissance in Scotland.
“He is very rightwing for a Labour leader,” said Craig Johnstone, a call-centre manager planning to vote for the Scottish National party in next month’s general election. Mr Johnstone’s comments suggested the SNP’s attempts to highlight Mr Murphy’s background on the Blairite wing of the party are having an impact.
Others said Mr Murphy’s style of delivery might be failing to engender confidence. “He looks like a bag of nerves now,” said Natalie Dines, a former Labour voter now thinking of moving to the Conservatives.
One risk for Mr Murphy appears to be his association with the party in Westminster; he served in a number of front-bench positions in the last Labour government. Tommy Fulton, another Labour voter, said: “His appointment has put me off voting Labour . . . he has just come up from London.”
As was pointed out on the utterly brilliant 'Ballot Monkeys' last night, even if Brand had come out and told all his supporters - that he had previously told not to vote - to now vote Labour, the chances are they wouldn't be able to because Miliband was so stupid he waited until after the last registration date had passed before he made an approach to Brand.
So far today Miliband is crap, dangerous, loony, unconstitutional, patronising, stupid, mad.
I will add underestimated as 35% appear willing to vote for him and EICIPM is still favourite according to Betfair and Kelner
If Labour get 35% I will be very surprised. The problem with targeting a solid lump of 35% left leaning voters is you allow yourself to be chipped at by the other parties. Labour have probably lost 2.5% to the SNP, losing almost all seats but probably gained 2.5% red liberals to gain next to no seats across southern England
I was taught by our very keen pre-history teacher about cubits and hands and all things unmetric.
It's so wonderfully colourful. I hate metric bar millimetres which are great for tiny things in DIY or centilitres for chemistry calculations - otherwise, I'm all Imperial and mentally turn everything metric back into Imperial to get a visual feel for it.
Miss Plato, a few days ago I explained the pre-decimal system of currency we had to an American (he'd read something about Thatcher looking forward to decimalisation), and his gast was utterly flabbered by it.
I rather like the bonkers old systems. There's something soulless about the metric system.
If we do get an EU referendum (which is won by IN) will UKIP get a similar boost in 2020?
Great question. I'd be looking to back UKIP for wins in their strong areas for c.20 seats in 2020 if a 2nd Tory/LD coalition is formed.
Anecdotal - Still not a single Labour poster up in my very strong Labour ward, plenty of England flags still up. No UKIP posters either, mind.
Tbh, I've only seen one poster in my town all campaign. And this is a semi-marginal. Don't recall seeing many in 2010 either though.
I'm in a marginal (Brentford and Isleworth) and despite being in a Tory part of the constituency, I've only seen a couple of Labour and one LibDem poster.
I haven't seen many posters, but I have been deluged with mail (mostly from Labour) exhorting be to vote for them.
Very few mailings still in Bury South. Apart from the Labour leaflets, some time ago now, we had a UKIP leaflet at the weekend. Which caused some amusement - the candidate openly confirms he is an Irish immigrant who came to the UK to study French and German, no less, at Salford University and has stayed ever since, and used to work as an immigration officer.
I think you must have joined the wrong party, Seamus...
I was taught by our very keen pre-history teacher about cubits and hands and all things unmetric.
It's so wonderfully colourful. I hate metric bar millimetres which are great for tiny things in DIY or centilitres for chemistry calculations - otherwise, I'm all Imperial and mentally turn everything metric back into Imperial to get a visual feel for it.
Miss Plato, a few days ago I explained the pre-decimal system of currency we had to an American (he'd read something about Thatcher looking forward to decimalisation), and his gast was utterly flabbered by it.
I rather like the bonkers old systems. There's something soulless about the metric system.
And God it's boring. It will shift not a single vote, for or against. I expect most of his viewers will turn it off after 3 minutes.
Tho if I was a tabloid journo I'd be jumping on the chat about "inequality". Two kitchens Miliband talks in Russell Brand's two million pound house about poor people who don't, like Miliband's wife, earn £200,000 a year.
If only Miliband talked about inequality; no, he talks "inequali'ee", "national 'ealth", says Brand is "to'ally wrong", asks if he accepts his "fundamen'al point" .. I can't watch any more or I might punch my screen
I've been taking a closer peek at the three border seats......
Dumfries and Galloway - three way battle. Labour defending from 45% but at half 2010 support. Tories coming from 31% in a strong area for them they held notionally in 2001 on boundary changes and have 'won' in scot elections, SNP from the teens surging. Should be SNP gain, Lab can hold if they can energise but why there rather than elsewhere? Tories would take it on a perfect storm if adding 6% to go above 2005s share and Labour holding off an SNP charge
DCT - looks like Tory hold IF Mundell retains share and can pick up say 4% from the Lab/Lib collapse, otherwise SNP gain
BRS - weakest constituency in Scotland for SNP and heaviest No presence IMO, however Liberal and Tory are battling each other to a standstill at ca 30%, leaving a relatively low hanging target for minority yessers to take it - perm any one of three.
Conclusion - I'd back 2-1 with the two and the one goung to SNP and Tory - your choice which way round!
Jim Murphy’s performance as Labour leader in Scotland has failed to impress voters in its working-class heartland, according to participants in the third of the Financial Times’ pre-election focus groups.
None of them said they were pleased with Mr Murphy, on whom Labour has pinned its hopes of a renaissance in Scotland.
“He is very rightwing for a Labour leader,” said Craig Johnstone, a call-centre manager planning to vote for the Scottish National party in next month’s general election. Mr Johnstone’s comments suggested the SNP’s attempts to highlight Mr Murphy’s background on the Blairite wing of the party are having an impact.
Others said Mr Murphy’s style of delivery might be failing to engender confidence. “He looks like a bag of nerves now,” said Natalie Dines, a former Labour voter now thinking of moving to the Conservatives.
One risk for Mr Murphy appears to be his association with the party in Westminster; he served in a number of front-bench positions in the last Labour government. Tommy Fulton, another Labour voter, said: “His appointment has put me off voting Labour . . . he has just come up from London.”
So someone accusses of him of being too right-wing, while another intends to switch from Lab to Con....
it would be hilarious if Labour lost all its Scottish seats and the Tories managed to get 1 - 2 seats. Just imagine the Tories outnumbering Labour in Scotland, that would have seemed like a pipe dream 12 months ago
How is that ALL the public funding of political parties goes to Labour? Any wonks out there who can explain?
So called Short Money goes to opposition parties to pay for opposition research. Theoretically I assume to hold the government to account and the government is considered not to need it due to having the Civil Service at their disposal.
Normally the Lib Dems would get a chunk of the Short Money but since they are a part of the government they're ineligible now.
Curious if it means the SNP could get a chunk of it next time.
And God it's boring. It will shift not a single vote, for or against. I expect most of his viewers will turn it off after 3 minutes.
Tho if I was a tabloid journo I'd be jumping on the chat about "inequality". Two kitchens Miliband talks in Russell Brand's two million pound house about poor people who don't, like Miliband's wife, earn £200,000 a year.
If only Miliband talked about inequality; no, he talks "inequali'ee", "national 'ealth", says Brand is "to'ally wrong", asks if he accepts his "fundamen'al point" .. I can't watch any more or I might punch my screen
Comments
Using legislature to signal policy intent is no way to run a country sensibly and a worrying trend.
The Conservative poster showing Militwat in Salmond's pocket is spot-on accurate.
You have to hand it the Tories: their characterisation of Labour's leader always is spot-on accurate. Who now would seriously dispute the 'demon eyes' characterisation of Blair, for example?
Miliband in the SNP pocket - same thing. Labouroids are angry about it because they know it's true.
I rather like the bonkers old systems. There's something soulless about the metric system.
Increasing the pay of low paid employees, (who probably won't be paying tax anyhow), will reduce the taxable profits of their employers by the same amount so the employers tax will go down.
The problem is that at some point circumstances will force a government to repeal such a silly law and this will then devalue the law in the eyes of the electorate.
It's one of the things that makes our politics so fracking rubbish at the moment.
Most here were sure that Murphy would be the salvation of SLAB, only a very few (including my self) predicted that he would make matters even worse because he is a bad fit for the average scottish voter.
Murphy was such a bad captain he sunk his ship before it even hit the reef.
It's so wonderfully colourful. I hate metric bar millimetres which are great for tiny things in DIY or centilitres for chemistry calculations - otherwise, I'm all Imperial and mentally turn everything metric back into Imperial to get a visual feel for it.
Mike Smithson@MSmithsonPB·3 mins3 minutes ago
This from @benatipsosmori seems to suggest that tomorrow's Standard poll has CON in lead
Miliband took over a party in 2010 in a commanding position in Scotland, and has presided over one disastrous decision after another. It was the win by the SNP in Holyrood in 2011 that led to the Indyref.
Behind the scenes, there must be some Labour apparatchniks absolutely furious with Miliband.
Salmond must really be regretting resigning too quickly.
How do you enforce it btw? Injunct HM the Q against signing a Finance Act?
+1 for 'Ballot Monkeys' - it was obviously written, filmed and edited only a couple of hours before it went out, while remaining impartial enough to lampoon everyone. Great work by the production team at C4.
the stars of the show were on The One Show last night said they get the scripts at 11am
I will add underestimated as 35% appear willing to vote for him and EICIPM is still favourite according to Betfair and Kelner
US GDP Data (Q1 A):
GDP - Annualized Q/Q +0.2% v +1.0% expected, previous +2.2%
Personal Consumption +1.9% v +1.7% expected, previous +4.4%
Helpful context for the Tories, perhaps.
But on these sort of numbers, clearly swathes of Labour and LD seats will fall.
And of course, that's as much a disaster for Dave as it is Ed, because he needs LD seats to either go Tory or stay LD if he wants to re-boot the Coalition - his only chance of survival realistically. Seeing them go Labour or SNP is a disaster for him.
What the STV reporting might do is stiffen unionist resolve and encourage more tactical voting.
It's probably a longstanding thing: as someone said on here recently, Scottish Labour just thought that saying "We're not the Tories" would work forever. They were utterly complacent and lethargic.
The fact that utter numpties like Jim Devine could become SLab MPs (and in fact he was even party chairman) shows the problem they had. As does the Falkirk controversy.
And there's a thought: I wonder if some of their problems have been accentuated by Falkirk?
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/c/c8/English_length_units_graph.png
The youth of his opponent might be no barrier as I remember a 21 year old called Charles Kennedy surprising everyone by ousting Hamish Gray in the Highlands in 1983.
I haven't seen many posters, but I have been deluged with mail (mostly from Labour) exhorting be to vote for them.
The day after on the other hand, with all those P45's and no power of status the bunfight will truly begin and the blame game will begin. At the same time the strategic geniuses in London will be trying to secure Downing street at all costs. I have no belief that will do anything that will be better for the long term. As they believe they are the god guys anything that needs to be done at whatever short term cost to the country, and long term cost to the Union.
As to Scotland I'm sure they believe they can win those seats back, that it's all a short term problem etc. But so far the SNP have barely put a foot wrong they are on course to breaking peoples long term party loyalties, they won't give up these seats without a fight and I'm sure new grievences against the English can be manufactured with a little bit of provocation.
I suspect the Labout party will move through the stages of grief, changing back and forth from denial to anger, blame and then acceptance. At the end of it (assuming this change in Scotland is permanent) then the Labour Party might as well be known as London Labour with all the potential problems that will provide in the Long term for it's Northern heartlands.
UKIP or something like them could provide an alternative to Labout there if they are not careful. People don't like being taking granted for, as soon as they see a viable alternative they can break old allegiances.
The only reasonable bet I could find was on labour to drop below the tories in ayr carrick & cumnock.
They'll be hopeful in Edinburgh West too. The borders all have 2 unionist challengers, except DCT and they'll be expecting to come second now in Murphy's seat. This poll makes Tactical voting less likely than before imo.
No wonder you support Miliband.
Figures.
History is repeating itself.
As one Labour activist put it to me, SLAB couldn't "organise a piss up in a brewery". There was no structure, no organisation or local leadership to deal with the SNP. All SLAB MP's more or less focus on Westminster, not Scotland.
And this is killing the party.
It didn't work out like that. In fact if anything Labour did slightly worse than most polls were showing:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_in_the_Scottish_Parliament_election,_2011
In Scotland the unionist parties would get their ~50% rather than 0%.
did like the little bit about the rebutting the rebuttal and checking the rebutted rebuttal. it was like some of the posts on here.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RDZm9_uKtyo&
I think you must have joined the wrong party, Seamus...
http://seamusmartin.com/about-seamus
Pity about the Victor Chandler account, though..
Interesting, Labour Press Team are not acknowledging it. Don't know why. Brand admits it wasn't a perfect interview, but he didn't bury him.
Awaits DH disaster for Ed tweets
Clegg - tuition fees
[Note to MI5: this is a joke, m'kay]
So someone accusses of him of being too right-wing, while another intends to switch from Lab to Con....
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2015/politics-blog/11570792/The-historic-link-between-Labour-and-the-trade-unions-is-about-to-break-thanks-to-the-SNP.html
How is that ALL the public funding of political parties goes to Labour? Any wonks out there who can explain?
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/04/29/us-usa-economy-idUSKBN0NK08520150429
Still awaiting Miliband to collapse Sterling
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ed-miliband/11568071/Russell-Brand-interviews-Ed-Miliband-exclusive-transcript.html
Normally you'd have told us it's lucky we have Osborne and his blistering 0.3%. :-)
Dumfries and Galloway - three way battle. Labour defending from 45% but at half 2010 support. Tories coming from 31% in a strong area for them they held notionally in 2001 on boundary changes and have 'won' in scot elections, SNP from the teens surging. Should be SNP gain, Lab can hold if they can energise but why there rather than elsewhere? Tories would take it on a perfect storm if adding 6% to go above 2005s share and Labour holding off an SNP charge
DCT - looks like Tory hold IF Mundell retains share and can pick up say 4% from the Lab/Lib collapse, otherwise SNP gain
BRS - weakest constituency in Scotland for SNP and heaviest No presence IMO, however Liberal and Tory are battling each other to a standstill at ca 30%, leaving a relatively low hanging target for minority yessers to take it - perm any one of three.
Conclusion - I'd back 2-1 with the two and the one goung to SNP and Tory - your choice which way round!
it would be hilarious if Labour lost all its Scottish seats and the Tories managed to get 1 - 2 seats. Just imagine the Tories outnumbering Labour in Scotland, that would have seemed like a pipe dream 12 months ago
Normally the Lib Dems would get a chunk of the Short Money but since they are a part of the government they're ineligible now.
Curious if it means the SNP could get a chunk of it next time.