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  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,149
    edited April 2015

    Plato said:

    I was taught by our very keen pre-history teacher about cubits and hands and all things unmetric.

    It's so wonderfully colourful. I hate metric bar millimetres which are great for tiny things in DIY or centilitres for chemistry calculations - otherwise, I'm all Imperial and mentally turn everything metric back into Imperial to get a visual feel for it.

    Miss Plato, a few days ago I explained the pre-decimal system of currency we had to an American (he'd read something about Thatcher looking forward to decimalisation), and his gast was utterly flabbered by it.

    I rather like the bonkers old systems. There's something soulless about the metric system.

    Maybe it's my interest in WW1 and WW2 battleships as a teen, but I know without Googling that 12 inches is 305 mm (eg. main guns on HMS Dreadnought), 13.5 inches is 343 mm (eg. HMS Iron Duke), 14 inches is 356 mm (eg. HMS Canada), 15 inches is 381 mm (eg. HMS Hood), 16 inches is 406 mm (eg. HMS Nelson) and 18 inches is 457 mm (eg. Japan's Yamato).

    :)
    Nitpick. Yamato had 18.1" guns, of 46cm calibre.

    Did you know there were two different 13.5" guns each throwing a shell of different weight?
    Yes I mentioned the 18.1 in a previous post.

    the 13.5 in Mk V (heavy) fired shells of 1,400 lb and Mk V (light) fired shells of 1,250 lb.
  • NormNorm Posts: 1,251
    For every youngster impressed by the Ed and Russ show there'll be an oldster chuntering away about the long haired anarchist layabout. Most will ignore. Net effect neutral.
  • A law stopping the Government raising the rates of VAT, NI and Income tax, so what happens if we get another financial shock in the next 5 years?
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-32498460

    Simple, cut spending.

    Cameron pledges no rises in Income Tax, VAT or National Insurance

    The Conservatives adapt the words to Only fools and horses song.

    “No income tax, no V.A.T ” (rises). "God bless Tory street...."
    (ducks off stage)

  • LennonLennon Posts: 1,782
    Do we have an estimated time for Ashcroft's latest?
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    marke09 said:

    Measuring the change means that the postal votes shouldn't matter. They assume that the change in the postal votes will be about the same as among the ones cast on the day.

    That's an interesting point - it could be a potential source of error in the exit poll for this election, for example if there is a last-minute swing or if the change since 2010 is different for more committed voters (over-represented amongst postal voters) and more swingy voters.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,964
    F1: 2016 season to start in April:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/formula1/32511718

    Bah.

  • Astonishing news - Labour evidence of reaching out beyond core vote.

    George Eaton‏@georgeeaton·4 mins4 minutes ago
    Why it has to be Labour - the New Statesman's election endorsement http://bit.ly/1In5YSu
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    RodCrosby said:

    No I didn't...
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039

    marke09 said:

    We ask our psephos to put their necks on the block. And thankfully they do. The Exit poll is of course just a sample - adjusted as real results declare. But that's the moment the giant touch screen will come to life. This time around we will not only be bringing real results as they happen - but using the Exit poll to try and determine just where we will see seats change hands. Bare with me - it’s a massive leap forward - but it could be quite an exciting on

    Someone on the BBC website wrote 'Bare with me'?
    To be honest that's quite a tempting offer from Emily Maitlis.
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    edited April 2015

    A law stopping the Government raising the rates of VAT, NI and Income tax, so what happens if we get another financial shock in the next 5 years?
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-32498460

    The reason they've proposed it is for headlines such as this, the main one on the BBC website.
    'Tories pledge law to curb tax rises'
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news

    Helps to cement in the minds of the public (who likely won't even bother reading the story) the Tories (rightly or wrongly) as the party of economic stability and low taxes 9 days out from the GE. The chances of there ever being such a law are minimal of course. A bit of silliness that will be one of the first things out the window in any coalition talks.


  • MillsyMillsy Posts: 900

    Astonishing news - Labour evidence of reaching out beyond core vote.

    George Eaton‏@georgeeaton·4 mins4 minutes ago
    Why it has to be Labour - the New Statesman's election endorsement http://bit.ly/1In5YSu

    I am flabbergasted!
  • marke09 said:

    Measuring the change means that the postal votes shouldn't matter. They assume that the change in the postal votes will be about the same as among the ones cast on the day.

    That's an interesting point - it could be a potential source of error in the exit poll for this election, for example if there is a last-minute swing or if the change since 2010 is different for more committed voters (over-represented amongst postal voters) and more swingy voters.
    Yes. Postal voters are in general terms, different.
    1. Older and 2. Voted a week or two earlier.

    But in some areas the postal vote dominates the voting share where the Labour govt made PV the main method of voting.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,149

    RodCrosby said:

    Why I wonder would the non imperial (small 'i') Japanese make guns that were 457mm calibre? Why not 450 or 460. Why would the Germans use an 88mm gun, whilst the US Pershing tank had a 90mm one.

    88mm is 3.4" which was a common calibre for German naval weapons. It was then convenient to standardise on this because when you came to tool things like shell cases and barrel rifling, the piece was not the same, but some other things were.

    Peculiar naval calibres usually arose from a previous shell weight. A twelve-pounder happened to fit a three-inch gun. A British 9.2-inch gun fired a shell that weighed exactly 2.5cwt. A 12-inch shell weighed 850lb. Both obviously appealed to someone's sense of neatness.

    So it was probably a result of that: their existing weapons were imperial, so they built imperial ones so they could use the same shells?

    Plus they were also trying to leapfrog the rival. British battlecruisers had 13.5" guns so the Japanese built theirs with 14". British battleships had 15" guns so the IJN's had 16".

    The Germans did the same. Where a British ship had 15" guns a German one would have 38cm. And so on.

    15 in (381 mm) is 1 mm more than 38 cm (380 mm)!

  • DanielDaniel Posts: 160
    Newstatsman admit Labour hasn't changed enough, but we might as well vote for them. Odd endorsement.
  • john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    @Roger

    'OT. Anecdote. A man came up to me in a cafe this morning and in broken English asked 'if I thought we could do it?' '

    Did you also meet Ed's fantasy pal, Gavin, senior in IT ?
  • VerulamiusVerulamius Posts: 1,550
    I am surprised that Sunil has not mentioned this point on the metric imperial debate.

    Currently railway distances in the UK are in miles and chains. However they are about to go metric.
  • Michael Crick

    @MichaelLCrick
    250,000 ballot papers now gone missing in stolen printers' van, covering Eastbourne and Hastings seats, and local elections.
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    edited April 2015
    Could it have been that British artillery calibres were a continuation of the "bore sizes" used on shotguns today?
    A no.1 bore would fire a lead ball weighing one pound, and a 12 bore fired one a twelfth of that weight. (nominally)
  • MillsyMillsy Posts: 900

    A law stopping the Government raising the rates of VAT, NI and Income tax, so what happens if we get another financial shock in the next 5 years?
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-32498460

    Osborne would do what he did earlier in this parliament and ease off the cuts, borrow more and turn on the printing presses
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    edited April 2015
    Daniel said:

    Newstatsman admit Labour hasn't changed enough, but we might as well vote for them. Odd endorsement.

    Call it the 'Rod Liddle Endorsement'.

    "Call me insane but I'm voting labour"
    "I can’t stand the party’s mindset, leadership and many of its policies..."
    http://www.spectator.co.uk/columnists/rod-liddle/9500072/call-me-insane-but-im-voting-labour/
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    Sean_F said:

    Brom said:

    isam said:

    Pong said:

    Harry Cole ‏@MrHarryCole

    Ukip sources pouring significant amounts of cold water from a great height on this afternoon's Ashcroft polling.

    Kippers 3rd in S.Thanet?
    I just hope we don't see the idiocy of comparing it with the Survation poll
    I noticed on Betfair the UKIP price drifted and Labour price came in massively before his last marginal polling so clearly a few people were in the know.
    For Thanet Tory and Lab price has come in a bit but UKIP hovering around 1.53 on exchanges, maybe suggests a lead of a few points. Either way it's not going to be a lead as big as 9% Survation, but you are correct most people will compare the 2 and point to a shrinking lead.

    Presumably, the Ashcroft poll won't have named candidates.

    Given the recent Ashcroft polls from Castle Point, Thurrock, and Rochester & Strood, I'd be surprised if Farage wasn't in the hunt.
    He'll definitely be in the hunt, and most probably the lead.

    My view is had Labour, Owen Jones et all not campaigned so hard and left this seat alone (they never really had a chance anyway in S. Thanet) then the Tories may have beaten Farage by winning over the anyone but Ukip vote, yet by being competitive with the Blues in the polls there was no obvious protest vote.

    This suggests the Labour party was incredibly naive in their attempts to stop Farage or perhaps it was all a clever ruse to help Nigel get into parliament and cause damage to the Tories.

    Or maybe I'm just over thinking the whole thing!
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,149
    Daniel said:

    Newstatsman admit Labour hasn't changed enough, but we might as well vote for them. Odd endorsement.

    Whenever I see "the New Statesman" mentioned, I can't help but think of Alan B'Stard :)
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,031

    marke09 said:

    Measuring the change means that the postal votes shouldn't matter. They assume that the change in the postal votes will be about the same as among the ones cast on the day.

    That's an interesting point - it could be a potential source of error in the exit poll for this election, for example if there is a last-minute swing or if the change since 2010 is different for more committed voters (over-represented amongst postal voters) and more swingy voters.
    On the other hand, it's possible that the last minute swing is measured by the exit poll but somewhat diluted by the postal votes cast already.

    If one of the leaders was to question the paternity of the Royal baby* tomorrow they still have a pile of votes already in the bag.

    *or substitute your own topical gaffe as appropriate.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621

    I am surprised that Sunil has not mentioned this point on the metric imperial debate.

    Currently railway distances in the UK are in miles and chains. However they are about to go metric.

    He's still in denial.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737

    Michael Crick

    @MichaelLCrick
    250,000 ballot papers now gone missing in stolen printers' van, covering Eastbourne and Hastings seats, and local elections.

    Looks like the logistical screwups are going to be as bad as last time...
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,149
    edited April 2015
    Anorak said:

    I am surprised that Sunil has not mentioned this point on the metric imperial debate.

    Currently railway distances in the UK are in miles and chains. However they are about to go metric.

    He's still in denial.
    Coventry station is exactly 94 miles from London Euston, if the yellow distance marker on platform 4 is to be believed :)
  • Flightpath1Flightpath1 Posts: 207
    Speedy said:

    Speedy said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Speedy said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Murphy must be close to having a breakdown live on National TV now.

    Which channel?
    Talking generally. His count should be fun to watch.
    I know.
    PB's "The Future Leader of Labour" losing his seat will be a nice dessert after the Clegg main course.

    I really dislike leaders who lead their party to sure oblivion.
    When the ship sinks the captain must go with it.
    If it happens, it will hardly be Murphy's fault. The ship was set on course for the reef and the steering disabled ages before he got to the bridge.
    I disagree.
    Most here were sure that Murphy would be the salvation of SLAB, only a very few (including my self) predicted that he would make matters even worse because he is a bad fit for the average scottish voter.

    Murphy was such a bad captain he sunk his ship before it even hit the reef.
    The Ratner moment came when the outgoing leader rubbished her own national party leadership.


  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,932
    Millsy said:

    A law stopping the Government raising the rates of VAT, NI and Income tax, so what happens if we get another financial shock in the next 5 years?
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-32498460

    Osborne would do what he did earlier in this parliament and ease off the cuts, borrow more and turn on the printing presses
    That makes sense, unless we lose our AAA credit rating and then have to pay more to finance our debts.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    Anorak said:

    A law stopping the Government raising the rates of VAT, NI and Income tax, so what happens if we get another financial shock in the next 5 years?
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-32498460

    There'll be a clause allowing a change on (say) 75% of the vote in parliament. Otherwise it would be so far beyond stupid as to be incomprehensible.
    Like any piece of legislation passed by the Commons it could be repealed by a simple majority. It's basically just a "super-pledge", and a gimmick that all parties should agree to resist resorting to.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    edited April 2015
    May2015 Election ‏@May2015NS

    New exclusive May2015/BMG Research poll:

    Conservative: 35%
    Labour: 32%
    Ukip: 14%
    Lib Dems: 11%
    SNP: 4%
    Greens: 3%

    http://may2015.com/featured/election-2015-new-exclusive-poll-puts-tories-three-points-ahead-of-labour/
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820

    Daniel said:

    Newstatsman admit Labour hasn't changed enough, but we might as well vote for them. Odd endorsement.

    Call it the 'Rod Liddle Endorsement'.

    "Call me insane but I'm voting labour"
    "I can’t stand the party’s mindset, leadership and many of its policies..."
    http://www.spectator.co.uk/columnists/rod-liddle/9500072/call-me-insane-but-im-voting-labour/
    Obviously the party of loonies and fruitcakes has changed.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,706

    Anorak said:

    A law stopping the Government raising the rates of VAT, NI and Income tax, so what happens if we get another financial shock in the next 5 years?
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-32498460

    There'll be a clause allowing a change on (say) 75% of the vote in parliament. Otherwise it would be so far beyond stupid as to be incomprehensible.
    Like any piece of legislation passed by the Commons it could be repealed by a simple majority. It's basically just a "super-pledge", and a gimmick that all parties should agree to resist resorting to.

    Anorak said:

    A law stopping the Government raising the rates of VAT, NI and Income tax, so what happens if we get another financial shock in the next 5 years?
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-32498460

    There'll be a clause allowing a change on (say) 75% of the vote in parliament. Otherwise it would be so far beyond stupid as to be incomprehensible.
    Like any piece of legislation passed by the Commons it could be repealed by a simple majority. It's basically just a "super-pledge", and a gimmick that all parties should agree to resist resorting to.

    Millsy said:

    A law stopping the Government raising the rates of VAT, NI and Income tax, so what happens if we get another financial shock in the next 5 years?
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-32498460

    Osborne would do what he did earlier in this parliament and ease off the cuts, borrow more and turn on the printing presses
    That makes sense, unless we lose our AAA credit rating and then have to pay more to finance our debts.

    Millsy said:

    A law stopping the Government raising the rates of VAT, NI and Income tax, so what happens if we get another financial shock in the next 5 years?
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-32498460

    Osborne would do what he did earlier in this parliament and ease off the cuts, borrow more and turn on the printing presses
    That makes sense, unless we lose our AAA credit rating and then have to pay more to finance our debts.
    Osborne lost AAA ratings ages ago.
  • EICIPMEICIPM Posts: 55

    May2015 Election ‏@May2015NS

    New exclusive May2015/BMG Research poll:

    Conservative: 35%
    Labour: 32%
    Ukip: 14%
    Lib Dems: 11%
    SNP: 4%
    Greens: 3%

    http://may2015.com/featured/election-2015-new-exclusive-poll-puts-tories-three-points-ahead-of-labour/

    #boom
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,149

    I am surprised that Sunil has not mentioned this point on the metric imperial debate.

    Currently railway distances in the UK are in miles and chains. However they are about to go metric.

    In 2011, I did all National Rail routes within a 50 mile (yes, MILE, not km!) radius from central London. Also did the West Midlands Day Ranger routes a year ago, and just the other week, did Nuneaton to Leicester.
  • EICIPMEICIPM Posts: 55
    edited April 2015

    May2015 Election ‏@May2015NS

    New exclusive May2015/BMG Research poll:

    Conservative: 35%
    Labour: 32%
    Ukip: 14%
    Lib Dems: 11%
    SNP: 4%
    Greens: 3%

    http://may2015.com/featured/election-2015-new-exclusive-poll-puts-tories-three-points-ahead-of-labour/

  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,655

    May2015 Election ‏@May2015NS

    New exclusive May2015/BMG Research poll:

    Conservative: 35%
    Labour: 32%
    Ukip: 14%
    Lib Dems: 11%
    SNP: 4%
    Greens: 3%

    http://may2015.com/featured/election-2015-new-exclusive-poll-puts-tories-three-points-ahead-of-labour/

    Very good for both UKIP and the LibDems - would see UKIP getting 5-8, and the LDs north of 25.
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787

    Anorak said:

    A law stopping the Government raising the rates of VAT, NI and Income tax, so what happens if we get another financial shock in the next 5 years?
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-32498460

    There'll be a clause allowing a change on (say) 75% of the vote in parliament. Otherwise it would be so far beyond stupid as to be incomprehensible.
    Like any piece of legislation passed by the Commons it could be repealed by a simple majority. It's basically just a "super-pledge", and a gimmick that all parties should agree to resist resorting to.
    A parliament cannot bind its successors, but can a parliament bind itself?
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    marke09 said:

    from the BBC website how the exit poll will work

    BBC

    A week tomorrow, as Big Ben Strikes 10pm, and the nation breathes a collective sigh of relief, you're either thinking a) phew, that’s over. Or b ) if you're me, just beginning.

    The Exit Poll will be shown to a few of us just moments before we go live on a 20 hour election marathon special. Even David Dimbleby and our Editor get just a ten minute warning.

    Politicians will by then have a pretty good idea of whether to expect good news or not. Their agents will have been phoning through snippets from marginal seats all day. But it is a rare party chairman who puts their neck on the block the minute the polls close. The broadcasters do and if it goes wrong (most famously in 1992) we will be hearing about it for the next 30 years.

    So how do we put the Exit Poll together - where is it strong and where should we admit its weaknesses? Well - at the crack of dawn a team of 140 researchers from NOP and Ipsos Mori fan out. They head to 140 (mostly marginal) seats across Great Britain. They will be carrying a stack of ballot papers and their own ballot boxes. Every 10th person coming out of the voting booths is asked to write down how they voted and put their piece of paper in the box. The results are phoned through to one tiny room in a secret location in London.

    Waiting to receive the data is a small team of psephologists lead by three men - the BBC's John Curtice, Sky's Michael Thrasher and ITN's Colin Rallings. They're the holy trinity of the whole exercise. The three broadcasters sink or swim together on this one. Joining forces means we can afford a bigger sample and we are likely to get a better result.

    This exercise won't tell them who has won the most votes. They have no idea If turnout has crashed in some areas and soared in others. But they think they can work out who has won the most seats. And they do this by measuring how many votes have changed since they visited the same polling stations in 2010.

    Measuring the change means that the postal votes shouldn't matter. They assume that the change in the postal votes will be about the same as among the ones cast on the day. And they don't assume some kind of universal swing. They work out if, say, student seats are acting differently and use the census to factor all those tiny differences in.

    15 minutes before David stands in front of his screen they will come up with some numbers. This time they're going go to try and predict seat totals not only for Cameron, Clegg and Miliband. They're going to try and predict some for UKIP, Plaid, Greens and the SNP too. They've never had to do his before - but this is a different kind of election.

    e.






    "And if all goes well, we'll be uncorking the champagne again."
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,149

    May2015 Election ‏@May2015NS

    New exclusive May2015/BMG Research poll:

    Conservative: 35%
    Labour: 32%
    Ukip: 14%
    Lib Dems: 11%
    SNP: 4%
    Greens: 3%

    http://may2015.com/featured/election-2015-new-exclusive-poll-puts-tories-three-points-ahead-of-labour/

    Accrington Stanley BMG Research? Who are they?
  • Flightpath1Flightpath1 Posts: 207
    Millsy said:

    A law stopping the Government raising the rates of VAT, NI and Income tax, so what happens if we get another financial shock in the next 5 years?
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-32498460

    Osborne would do what he did earlier in this parliament and ease off the cuts, borrow more and turn on the printing presses
    I don't think the govt eased off the cuts, they went as planned, but the govt did not add more cuts just to meet a pre set timetable when they found a bigger structural deficit. If the govt turned on the printing presses it was not reflected in the inflation figures.
    If we get another financial shock then the way to meet it would not be to increase taxes. We need to cut back spending because we cannot afford the massive increase in spending we suffered from under Brown. He increased spending in real terms by 50% between 2000 and 2010.
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited April 2015

    May2015 Election ‏@May2015NS

    New exclusive May2015/BMG Research poll:

    Conservative: 35%
    Labour: 32%
    Ukip: 14%
    Lib Dems: 11%
    SNP: 4%
    Greens: 3%

    http://may2015.com/featured/election-2015-new-exclusive-poll-puts-tories-three-points-ahead-of-labour/

    Interesting.

    Does anyone know anything about BMG?

    "BMG’s poll is their first in this election cycle. We will be publishing another early next week... BMG are not yet members of the British Polling Council but are in the process of applying to become members, and abided by BPC rules in carrying out their poll."
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,328
    Ishmael_X said:

    Mr. X, that's possible. What's certain is that, as Mr. Ghedebrav states, legislating in this way is crackers. It's madder than a box of frogs.

    Quite so. I was looking for an explanation, not seeking to excuse it.

    How do you enforce it btw? Injunct HM the Q against signing a Finance Act?
    I'm quite looking forward to a law abolishing Sin and Death and The It will be Sunny and Hot in Summer Law.

  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    Todays BMG (WHO)

    EICIPM

    Tories, Lib Dems, the DUP and Ukip, on 319 seats. An ‘anti-Tory’ bloc of Labour, the SNP and minor MPs – mainly from the SDLP, Plaid, Greens – would have 325 MPs
  • BannedInParisBannedInParis Posts: 2,191
    edited April 2015
    EICIPM said:

    May2015 Election ‏@May2015NS

    New exclusive May2015/BMG Research poll:

    Conservative: 35%
    Labour: 32%
    Ukip: 14%
    Lib Dems: 11%
    SNP: 4%
    Greens: 3%

    http://may2015.com/featured/election-2015-new-exclusive-poll-puts-tories-three-points-ahead-of-labour/

    I can see that being the final result



    Labour have a bit further to fall.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039

    May2015 Election ‏@May2015NS

    New exclusive May2015/BMG Research poll:

    Conservative: 35%
    Labour: 32%
    Ukip: 14%
    Lib Dems: 11%
    SNP: 4%
    Greens: 3%

    http://may2015.com/featured/election-2015-new-exclusive-poll-puts-tories-three-points-ahead-of-labour/

    Accrington Stanley BMG Research? Who are they?
    Exactly. I hope their tables meet with your approval ;)
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,149
    @Tissue_Price

    Online poll alert! :lol:
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,031
    edited April 2015
    Well someone is hoping for a 1992-style last minute swing!
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,893
    BMG have done well to find 11% Lib Dems on their first go.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,393
    https://twitter.com/kwr66/status/593401677757186048

    One for Sunil and JJ ... (and relevant to the theme)
  • Could be an interesting insight. This LD PPC (ex LDHQ) is often partisan, but he is not saying that voters are swinging to the LDs. He is saying that some are swinging away from Labour.
    http://jonathanwallace.blogspot.co.uk/2015/04/how-soft-is-labours-vote.html
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    Stop press:

    IFR are saying that somebody has had a 30 grand bet on a Tory Majority at 7/1

    As 'ave it would say

    'AVE IT!!!
  • BMG

    Certain to vote 36/32
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,291
    From this morning's tweet from Ipsos Mori about the Tories 'edging ahead' I guess a 2% lead from them in tomorrow's poll.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,228

    Anorak said:

    I am surprised that Sunil has not mentioned this point on the metric imperial debate.

    Currently railway distances in the UK are in miles and chains. However they are about to go metric.

    He's still in denial.
    Coventry station is exactly 94 miles from London Euston, if the yellow distance marker on platform 4 is to be believed :)
    Not if your train goes via Northampton...
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    Pong said:

    May2015 Election ‏@May2015NS

    New exclusive May2015/BMG Research poll:

    Conservative: 35%
    Labour: 32%
    Ukip: 14%
    Lib Dems: 11%
    SNP: 4%
    Greens: 3%

    http://may2015.com/featured/election-2015-new-exclusive-poll-puts-tories-three-points-ahead-of-labour/

    Interesting.

    Does anyone know anything about BMG?

    "BMG’s poll is their first in this election cycle. We will be publishing another early next week... BMG are not yet members of the British Polling Council but are in the process of applying to become members, and abided by BPC rules in carrying out their poll."
    it would be somewhat hilarious if BMG were the gold standard, and I'm inclined to think that if you drop UKIP and Libs down a point and Lab and Con up 1 that might be the final result.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,149
    Carnyx said:

    https://twitter.com/kwr66/status/593401677757186048

    One for Sunil and JJ ... (and relevant to the theme)

    Very good! Though loco 4472 is Green rather than blue (though as it's a head-on view, we can forgive them for that!).
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415

    Todays BMG (WHO)

    EICIPM

    Tories, Lib Dems, the DUP and Ukip, on 319 seats. An ‘anti-Tory’ bloc of Labour, the SNP and minor MPs – mainly from the SDLP, Plaid, Greens – would have 325 MPs

    Are you including Simon Danczuk in your Labour figure ?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,546
    Brom said:

    Sean_F said:

    Brom said:

    isam said:

    Pong said:

    Harry Cole ‏@MrHarryCole

    Ukip sources pouring significant amounts of cold water from a great height on this afternoon's Ashcroft polling.

    Kippers 3rd in S.Thanet?
    I just hope we don't see the idiocy of comparing it with the Survation poll
    I noticed on Betfair the UKIP price drifted and Labour price came in massively before his last marginal polling so clearly a few people were in the know.
    For Thanet Tory and Lab price has come in a bit but UKIP hovering around 1.53 on exchanges, maybe suggests a lead of a few points. Either way it's not going to be a lead as big as 9% Survation, but you are correct most people will compare the 2 and point to a shrinking lead.

    Presumably, the Ashcroft poll won't have named candidates.

    Given the recent Ashcroft polls from Castle Point, Thurrock, and Rochester & Strood, I'd be surprised if Farage wasn't in the hunt.
    He'll definitely be in the hunt, and most probably the lead.

    My view is had Labour, Owen Jones et all not campaigned so hard and left this seat alone (they never really had a chance anyway in S. Thanet) then the Tories may have beaten Farage by winning over the anyone but Ukip vote, yet by being competitive with the Blues in the polls there was no obvious protest vote.

    This suggests the Labour party was incredibly naive in their attempts to stop Farage or perhaps it was all a clever ruse to help Nigel get into parliament and cause damage to the Tories.

    Or maybe I'm just over thinking the whole thing!
    Farage being elected would be the second-best result for Labour.
  • Flightpath1Flightpath1 Posts: 207
    Roger said:

    " logical_song said:

    A law stopping the Government raising the rates of VAT, NI and Income tax, so what happens if we get another financial shock in the next 5 years?
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-32498460"

    I think it's just a way of ditching Osborne. It got ad agency account director written all over it. First you take away his responsibilities then his desk then his title and eventually he leaves and you can say with a straight face you've never sacked anybody!

    A dopey analysis. It was Osborne who created the Office of Budget Responsibility.
    The only reasons that taxes would rise would be if the economy was overheating. As it is taxes are already high enough.
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    Mike Smithson ‏@MSmithsonPB ·
    BMG poll which has just put GE15 survey out is not listed as member of British Polling Council http://bit.ly/1QJEb1T

  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,149
    Should I stick it into Wikipedia when the tables come out? (if?)

    Should I stick it into my ELBOW?
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    SPIN up to 286 for the Tories - entering comfort zone.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,983
    Re Ed's chat with Russel. Plenty of clips for a PPB if he could get permission. After Dave's latest tax ruse it's unlikely anyone is taking him seriously anymore so there couldn't be a better time for Ed to show unlike his opponent he's into serious politics
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,393

    Carnyx said:

    https://twitter.com/kwr66/status/593401677757186048

    One for Sunil and JJ ... (and relevant to the theme)

    Very good! Though loco 4472 is Green rather than blue (though as it's a head-on view, we can forgive them for that!).
    I think you are being inadvertently unkind. Indeed in LNER days 4472 was green rather than Garter Blue (that was some of the streamlined A4s IIRC). But in this view you can only see the smokebox and the footplate - which are both black in real life, so the artist is actually technically correct (Superman hair style black = blue equivalence).

    The articles mentioned don't seem to be up yet BTW.

  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,149
    Is Lord Ashcroft a member of BPC? I always thought he isn't.
  • acf2310acf2310 Posts: 141
    Roger said:

    Re Ed's chat with Russel. Plenty of clips for a PPB if he could get permission. After Dave's latest tax ruse it's unlikely anyone is taking him seriously anymore so there couldn't be a better time for Ed to show unlike his opponent he's into serious politics

    Showing clips with a 9/11 denier who doesn't believe in paying taxes or voting is a way to show that EM's 'into serious politics'?

    Are you advising Lucy Powell?
  • TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    edited April 2015
    Is the most sensible move for the next Govt to announce after the GE that tax on petrol will be lowered and the tax on diesel increased in a series of steps? That way motorists can plan to exit the noxious diesel cars. Freight transport also needs to be nudged onto rail and cleaner engines.

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/the-supreme-court-has-ordered-the-government-to-take-immediate-action-to-stop-the-uks-illegal-and-dangerous-air-pollution-levels-10212454.html
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,533
    edited April 2015
    Daniel said:

    Newstatsman admit Labour hasn't changed enough, but we might as well vote for them. Odd endorsement.

    It called the Southam Observer endorsement. They are shit, but they aren't the Tories. Its the 2015 incarnation of the Polly nosepeg.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300

    Carnyx said:

    https://twitter.com/kwr66/status/593401677757186048

    One for Sunil and JJ ... (and relevant to the theme)

    Very good! Though loco 4472 is Green rather than blue (though as it's a head-on view, we can forgive them for that!).
    Over budget, long behind schedule and full of faults left by previous owners.

    I preferred that Boris Johnson joke about 4472 as a memorial for Gordon Brown.
  • What would our resident experts, at assessing the odds, rate the chances of a Conservative majority? 20:1, 10:1 or shorter?
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,366
    The Rod Little article does make some sort of sense to me.

    I come to a different decision but the Scandinavian model has a lot to recommend it. And they have a far more pragmatic view on what real equality is. Where are the happiest countries?
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,983
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @Sunil_Prasannan
    You could stick it in Jack's ARSE?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415

    What would our resident experts, at assessing the odds, rate the chances of a Conservative majority? 20:1, 10:1 or shorter?
    15s maybe ?

    I can see CON getting to 320 perhaps, but to get to 326 requires not losing any seats if at all to Labour.
  • Chris123Chris123 Posts: 174
    Sorry but the gentleman is completely clueless otherwise he could have figured out that he could have gotten a much higher return by punting on Betfair. I'm afraid, he's approached his "bet" in the same haphazard manner - poor old fool. But you know the old story about "a fool and his money..."
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,393
    dr_spyn said:

    Carnyx said:

    https://twitter.com/kwr66/status/593401677757186048

    One for Sunil and JJ ... (and relevant to the theme)

    Very good! Though loco 4472 is Green rather than blue (though as it's a head-on view, we can forgive them for that!).
    Over budget, long behind schedule and full of faults left by previous owners.

    I preferred that Boris Johnson joke about 4472 as a memorial for Gordon Brown.
    What's that joke, please? The only one I can find on a quick check isn't obviously by the Procurator of Londinium.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,680
    edited April 2015

    Should I stick it into Wikipedia when the tables come out? (if?)

    Should I stick it into my ELBOW?
    The tables are in the article - scroll down

    http://may2015.com/featured/election-2015-new-exclusive-poll-puts-tories-three-points-ahead-of-labour/

    They say they are applying to the BPC and abide by their rules.
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    ''I can see CON getting to 320 perhaps, but to get to 326 requires not losing any seats if at all to Labour. ''

    And as we know, Broxtowe is already in the bag for the reds.
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760

    Is Lord Ashcroft a member of BPC? I always thought he isn't.

    I believe he is not, and I believe BMG should go in the elbow! (but maybe after you've checked the data tables for anything ridiculous).
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415
    Chris123 said:

    Sorry but the gentleman is completely clueless otherwise he could have figured out that he could have gotten a much higher return by punting on Betfair. I'm afraid, he's approached his "bet" in the same haphazard manner - poor old fool. But you know the old story about "a fool and his money..."
    No he couldn't.

    Take a look at the liquidity and price on NOM.
  • Chris123Chris123 Posts: 174
    I remember that some researchers actually investigated betting behavior at Intrade and found that more than 80% of bettors go with one party/ outcome (the one they prefer). For that reason also there are better odds to be attained on punts going against the Conservatives. Conservatives have more money and their liquidity skews the market.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737

    What would our resident experts, at assessing the odds, rate the chances of a Conservative majority? 20:1, 10:1 or shorter?
    4:1
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited April 2015
    taffys said:

    ''I can see CON getting to 320 perhaps, but to get to 326 requires not losing any seats if at all to Labour. ''

    And as we know, Broxtowe is already in the bag for the reds.

    I the Tories get 320 the coalition will get 326 easily.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,688
    CD13 said:

    The Rod Little article does make some sort of sense to me.

    I come to a different decision but the Scandinavian model has a lot to recommend it. And they have a far more pragmatic view on what real equality is. Where are the happiest countries?

    Well the happiest country in the world this year is apparently Switzerland followed by Iceland.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,500

    Is the most sensible move for the next Govt to announce after the GE that tax on petrol will be lowered and the tax on diesel increased in a series of steps? That way motorists can plan to exit the noxious diesel cars. Freight transport also needs to be nudged onto rail and cleaner engines.

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/the-supreme-court-has-ordered-the-government-to-take-immediate-action-to-stop-the-uks-illegal-and-dangerous-air-pollution-levels-10212454.html

    There is a problem with railfreight. A new EU regulation meant that diesel engines used in trains had to emit less carbon. There was only one problem: no-one makes locomotives for the UK that meet the regulations, and no-one is quite sure if there is a diesel engine that can meet them and fit in the reduced-size UK loading gauge. Instead, people are considering getting old locomotives with poor emissions standards back on track under grandfather rights.

    End result: the regulation's been dropped, I think.

    http://www.railwaymagazine.co.uk/news/lunacy-brussels-bid-to-reduce-exhaust-emissions-backfires
  • Chris123Chris123 Posts: 174
    Something similar happened with the Libertarians that entered the prediction markets for Ron Paul to win a primary. He never won a primary but the odds on him to win where way to high - all the way.
  • Rod, Pulpstar and JJ thanks for responses.
    Ciao
  • Chris123Chris123 Posts: 174
    Looking at all of the polls, the one I find most credible and consistent is YouGov. Sure, online polls have a self-selecting sample but there's is a pretty large one - almost half a million people. They also poll the same folks so that they can detect market shifts unlike other pollsters. The people that answer landlines are a narrow target group - they're not necessarily reflective of the population as a whole.
  • RodCrosby said:

    What would our resident experts, at assessing the odds, rate the chances of a Conservative majority? 20:1, 10:1 or shorter?
    4:1
    Didn't you have it a lot shorter than that at one point, Rod.

    I think it got down as low as 9/2 on Betfair at one stage but my recollection is you were quoting something shorter.
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584

    Is the most sensible move for the next Govt to announce after the GE that tax on petrol will be lowered and the tax on diesel increased in a series of steps? That way motorists can plan to exit the noxious diesel cars. Freight transport also needs to be nudged onto rail and cleaner engines.

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/the-supreme-court-has-ordered-the-government-to-take-immediate-action-to-stop-the-uks-illegal-and-dangerous-air-pollution-levels-10212454.html

    There is a problem with railfreight. A new EU regulation meant that diesel engines used in trains had to emit less carbon. There was only one problem: no-one makes locomotives for the UK that meet the regulations, and no-one is quite sure if there is a diesel engine that can meet them and fit in the reduced-size UK loading gauge. Instead, people are considering getting old locomotives with poor emissions standards back on track under grandfather rights.

    End result: the regulation's been dropped, I think.

    http://www.railwaymagazine.co.uk/news/lunacy-brussels-bid-to-reduce-exhaust-emissions-backfires
    With diesel engines in cars, I thought they could inject Ammonia (??) into the exhaust to convert the NO2 to something harmless?

  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    RodCrosby said:

    RodCrosby said:

    I cannot believe that all parties except the SNP would be wiped out in Scotland, it just does not seem possible. On the other hand it would make a memorable election night.

    If you live by FPTP, you can die by FPTP.
    And you consider this a bad thing?
    I think a system that grotesquely inflates the largest faction, and leaves all other voters unrepresented (as in the Scottish forecast) is bad. It doesn't just happen in Scotland either.
    All round the country the dominant faction tends to sweep all the seats under FPTP.
    I think a system that means any MP no matter how close to the top of his party can lose is great. An Alexander moment is like the Portillo moment, a possibility only possible due to FPTP.

    In FPTP even safe seats can lose, while in PR being at the top of your party list makes you almost untouchable. Alexander has to answer to his constituency in FPTP, he would be guaranteed to return to Parliament as someone near the top of his parties list in PR.
  • Chris123Chris123 Posts: 174
    Pulpstar said:

    Chris123 said:

    Sorry but the gentleman is completely clueless otherwise he could have figured out that he could have gotten a much higher return by punting on Betfair. I'm afraid, he's approached his "bet" in the same haphazard manner - poor old fool. But you know the old story about "a fool and his money..."
    No he couldn't.

    Take a look at the liquidity and price on NOM.
    9.6 for 1 minus the commission. Surely an accountant would figure out that this makes a difference to a return of 8.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,500
    dr_spyn said:

    Carnyx said:

    https://twitter.com/kwr66/status/593401677757186048

    One for Sunil and JJ ... (and relevant to the theme)

    Very good! Though loco 4472 is Green rather than blue (though as it's a head-on view, we can forgive them for that!).
    Over budget, long behind schedule and full of faults left by previous owners.

    (snip)
    You can't really blame the previous owners (except perhaps Marchington) for the NRM's problems with the Flying Scotsman. The project has been hideously mismanaged by them, as the report showed.
This discussion has been closed.