Does anyone have a decent stash of "Certain To Vote" figures from the Indy Ref. Trying to get a line on Scotland Turnout
Rather perversely the turnout could be lower in Scotland as a result of the electoral roll re-registration, which was surely in the high 90s percent with the referendum?
There is not going to be a grand coalition under any circumstances. It is inconceivable in the UK parliamentary system. Quite apart from anything else, why on earth would either party want it?
What we might see is a 'grand confidence and supply', but even that is highly unlikely. More likely would be an informal arrangement where one of the two big parties decided to abstain on a confidence vote in order temporarily to keep the other in as a minority government. They would do this if they thought it was better, from a purely party-political viewpoint, to let things fester for a bit, heaping unpopularity on the poor saps trying to hold things together. They might also do this if they thought they needed more time themselves before provoking an election - for example, because funds were short or if they wanted to change leader first.
But a grand coalition is for the birds.
Yes: see Spain for exactly how this might work.
There the presence of regional (Basque, Catalan) parties has meant that the (historic) big two parties only very rarely got absolute majorities. Rather than be blackmailed at the mercy of regional parties to form a government, there was a gentleman's agreement between the big parties to allow the largest party to form a minority government.
Of course, to pass laws required a degree of compromise with smaller parties, or required individual representatives to be willing to ignore their party bosses, but - by and large - the system worked fairly well.
As NickPalmer said on the previous thread, the result that would come from such a thing makes a mockery of our electoral system. On top of this, you could have Labour win more seats with the Conservatives getting more votes, and UKIP having a fraction of the seats of the Lib Dems despite getting double the vote. Electoral form is severely needed. I can not see how anyone will be able to support the current system.
Another poll showing Scottish Labour getting the dockside hooker treatment.
As a Unionist, I'm worried about these rebellious Scots.
Can't someone come up with a strategy to crush Scottish Nationalism stone dead
I think Dave has done a tremendous job of stirring up Scottish nationalism with the Salmond pickpocket posters and remarks. It might well be good for our bank balances, and his electoral chances - but you need look no further if Scotland decides to go independent before 2024 say. He's probably tipped the remaining 5 or 6 % over the line.
FTP. PoliticsHome @politicshome 2h2 hours ago 65% of new households since 1997 were headed by a foreign national, MigrationWatch report says http://polho.me/1QI5jhL
Says it all really. The truth is even more troublesome for the UK than even UKIP darkest's forecasts.
There is not going to be a grand coalition under any circumstances. It is inconceivable in the UK parliamentary system. Quite apart from anything else, why on earth would either party want it?
What we might see is a 'grand confidence and supply', but even that is highly unlikely. More likely would be an informal arrangement where one of the two big parties decided to abstain on a confidence vote in order temporarily to keep the other in as a minority government. They would do this if they thought it was better, from a purely party-political viewpoint, to let things fester for a bit, heaping unpopularity on the poor saps trying to hold things together. They might also do this if they thought they needed more time themselves before provoking an election - for example, because funds were short or if they wanted to change leader first.
But a grand coalition is for the birds.
Yes: see Spain for exactly how this might work.
There the presence of regional (Basque, Catalan) parties has meant that the (historic) big two parties only very rarely got absolute majorities. Rather than be blackmailed at the mercy of regional parties to form a government, there was a gentleman's agreement between the big parties to allow the largest party to form a minority government.
Of course, to pass laws required a degree of compromise with smaller parties, or required individual representatives to be willing to ignore their party bosses, but - by and large - the system worked fairly well.
Interesting, hadn't thought about how things work in Spain even though I used to live there! Maybe the arrangement ends up being less formal than an actual coalition between the big two, but as it's a new situation I can't imagine abstentions being seen as anything but negative "You let the evil other lot get away with X" by the press and other parties to the left and right of Lab and Con respectively.
As NickPalmer said on the previous thread, the result that would come from such a thing makes a mockery of our electoral system. On top of this, you could have Labour win more seats with the Conservatives getting more votes, and UKIP having a fraction of the seats of the Lib Dems despite getting double the vote. Electoral form is severely needed. I can not see how anyone will be able to support the current system.
In 1983 the Alliance got 25% of the vote against 27% for Labour, and got fewer than one tenth the number of seats. The voting system did not change. There were no riots.
In 1951, the Labour Party got more votes than the Conservatives, yet they won the election.
I don't buy the masses rising up in disgust at the election result.
Another poll showing Scottish Labour getting the dockside hooker treatment.
As a Unionist, I'm worried about these rebellious Scots.
Can't someone come up with a strategy to crush Scottish Nationalism stone dead
Transfer real powers to Scotland and let us get on with improving things under our own steam. Failure to really do this will mean the end of the UK sooner rather than later. The scary tactics last September gave London a breather to sort things out properly , I doubt they will bite the bullet and do the right thing.
Mr. K, nice cartoon, and hope you have a good day tomorrow. You'll be as old as Antigonus Monopthalmus was when he lost the Battle of Ipsus (but younger than Ramses II).
As NickPalmer said on the previous thread, the result that would come from such a thing makes a mockery of our electoral system. On top of this, you could have Labour win more seats with the Conservatives getting more votes, and UKIP having a fraction of the seats of the Lib Dems despite getting double the vote. Electoral form is severely needed. I can not see how anyone will be able to support the current system.
There have been cases before where the party with the largest number of votes didn't win the largest number of seats. Lib Dems have been getting a fraction of their percentage in votes as seats for decades. What's changed?
Yes. One side-effect of that has been to prevent UKIP getting any momentum going. I imagine they were hoping to use the debates as lever to get favourable headlines about Farage trouncing LibLabCon, and the papers to be running stories speculating about many gains they could make. Instead Nicola has grabbed the limelight, and UKIP have been shoved out of the news.
As NickPalmer said on the previous thread, the result that would come from such a thing makes a mockery of our electoral system. On top of this, you could have Labour win more seats with the Conservatives getting more votes, and UKIP having a fraction of the seats of the Lib Dems despite getting double the vote. Electoral form is severely needed. I can not see how anyone will be able to support the current system.
In 1983 the Alliance got 25% of the vote against 27% for Labour, and got fewer than one tenth the number of seats. The voting system did not change. There were no riots.
In 1951, the Labour Party got more votes than the Conservatives, yet they won the election.
I don't buy the masses rising up in disgust at the election result.
The only people who can change the system are those who do well out of the system. Therefore the system doesn't change.
As NickPalmer said on the previous thread, the result that would come from such a thing makes a mockery of our electoral system. On top of this, you could have Labour win more seats with the Conservatives getting more votes, and UKIP having a fraction of the seats of the Lib Dems despite getting double the vote. Electoral form is severely needed. I can not see how anyone will be able to support the current system.
Suddenly when the London establishment are not winning the cry is "it's not fair". They have abused the system for hundreds of years and resisted change but suddenly it is an issue, they will cling on as long as possible.
With the SNP even more leftie than the Labour Party; on a par with the Communist Party in many respects. Will the next government fortify our border with Scotland? England will need to stop these ravaging Picts from infesting the North.
"Electoral form is severely needed. I can not see how anyone will be able to support the current system."
I half expect various assorted unionists to suggest that FPTP for Westminster be replaced by PR, but only in Scotland-to ensure fair representation for the people of Scotland, of course.
The MSM-and probably BBC Scotland-will give this serious attention before the electorate in Scotland gives them a severe skelping and they are roundly ridiculed on twitter (an approach being used increasingly and effectively by "cybernats" replacing the supposed abuse
FTP. PoliticsHome @politicshome 2h2 hours ago 65% of new households since 1997 were headed by a foreign national, MigrationWatch report says http://polho.me/1QI5jhL
Says it all really. The truth is even more troublesome for the UK than even UKIP darkest's forecasts.
Although the number peaked between 2005 and 2009 at 89% (!). Assuming constant household formation (which is obviously a ridiculous assumption), that means that between 2009 and 2014, just 31% of were headed by a foreign national.
Of course, what does "headed" mean? Does it mean that the "Dad" was a foreign national? Is it a net number - or gross?
With the SNP even more leftie than the Labour Party; on a par with the Communist Party in many respects. Will the next government fortify our border with Scotland? England will need to stop these ravaging Picts from infesting the North.
As NickPalmer said on the previous thread, the result that would come from such a thing makes a mockery of our electoral system. On top of this, you could have Labour win more seats with the Conservatives getting more votes, and UKIP having a fraction of the seats of the Lib Dems despite getting double the vote. Electoral form is severely needed. I can not see how anyone will be able to support the current system.
In 1983 the Alliance got 25% of the vote against 27% for Labour, and got fewer than one tenth the number of seats. The voting system did not change. There were no riots.
In 1951, the Labour Party got more votes than the Conservatives, yet they won the election.
I don't buy the masses rising up in disgust at the election result.
The only people who can change the system are those who do well out of the system. Therefore the system doesn't change.
As NickPalmer said on the previous thread, the result that would come from such a thing makes a mockery of our electoral system. On top of this, you could have Labour win more seats with the Conservatives getting more votes, and UKIP having a fraction of the seats of the Lib Dems despite getting double the vote. Electoral form is severely needed. I can not see how anyone will be able to support the current system.
In 1983 the Alliance got 25% of the vote against 27% for Labour, and got fewer than one tenth the number of seats. The voting system did not change. There were no riots.
In 1951, the Labour Party got more votes than the Conservatives, yet they won the election.
I don't buy the masses rising up in disgust at the election result.
They will do the opposite: sit down onto their sofas, curse, stick two fingers up at Westminster, and not bother voting instead.
As NickPalmer said on the previous thread, the result that would come from such a thing makes a mockery of our electoral system. On top of this, you could have Labour win more seats with the Conservatives getting more votes, and UKIP having a fraction of the seats of the Lib Dems despite getting double the vote. Electoral form is severely needed. I can not see how anyone will be able to support the current system.
Suddenly when the London establishment are not winning the cry is "it's not fair". They have abused the system for hundreds of years and resisted change but suddenly it is an issue, they will cling on as long as possible.
It's not going to change as there are too many MPs in safe seats. Turkeys/Christmas and all that.
Not so many safe seats North of the Border, mind you (snigger).
As NickPalmer said on the previous thread, the result that would come from such a thing makes a mockery of our electoral system. On top of this, you could have Labour win more seats with the Conservatives getting more votes, and UKIP having a fraction of the seats of the Lib Dems despite getting double the vote. Electoral form is severely needed. I can not see how anyone will be able to support the current system.
Suddenly when the London establishment are not winning the cry is "it's not fair". They have abused the system for hundreds of years and resisted change but suddenly it is an issue, they will cling on as long as possible.
Yes I agree
Scotland ruled by Thatcher, Major, Blair and Cameron for 36 years, often against the will of their population... If the SNP hold the whip hand over us Southern Englishmen we will know how it feels
SNP won't win every seat by a long shot. Unionists face unprecedented intimidation in Scotland, and thus are terrified of revealing their opposition to the SNP. I fully expect Scotland polling to prove to be remarkably wrong and to be the highlight of the election when the SNP underachieves by a very significant margin.
With the SNP even more leftie than the Labour Party; on a par with the Communist Party in many respects. Will the next government fortify our border with Scotland? England will need to stop these ravaging Picts from infesting the North.
The Tories are more leftie than labour nowadays, a centre left SNP government will do well with only London right wing parties as competition.
Mr. Isam, in the 18 years since 1997, we've had 13 years of Scottish Chancellors and 3 years of Scottish Prime Ministers (if we count Blair as English).
Given Scotland has 8% of the population, that's hardly the epitome of anti-democratic oppression.
I hope Carmichael loses his seat, his obstinence cost PBers money at the back end of last year. still odds against I reckon, but I live in hope.
And leaking that memo caused me to close out my SNP spin position.
The tosser
The normally unruffled Nabavi was in a bit of a spin over the cackhanded Ziniov attempt, if Nabavi worries, I worry.
I closed out Coatbridge and reopened the profit onto the SNP once it blew over.
Yes, I got that wrong. Nicola managed to brush it off. The gal is a class act.
On topic, I agree with antifrank: it requires an awfully large act of faith to believe that all these polls, using different methodologies and backed up by Lord Ashcroft's individual constituency polls, are so far out that Scottish Labour can have any hope at all. What's more it makes sense - it really is hard to see the point of voting for Scottish Labour, given that the SNP have positioned themselves as truer to Labour's tradition than Labour is.
I don't believe the staws that some in Labour are clutching at: neither 'shy unionists' nor tactical votes for Labour will save them.
In contrast, popular LibDem incumbents in Scotland will, I think, get some tactical votes from Conservatives and perhaps some Labour unionists, but the SNP tsunami is going to be so powerful that it will sweep all, or nearly all, before it.
SNP won't win every seat by a long shot. Unionists face unprecedented intimidation in Scotland, and thus are terrified of revealing their opposition to the SNP. I fully expect Scotland polling to prove to be remarkably wrong and to be the highlight of the election when the SNP underachieves by a very significant margin.
It is very, very approximate - I tended towards largest council area determining the Constituency Yes vote.
Thank you Alistair.
My Glasgow figures are particularly suspect - I just mapped Scottish Parliament area to Westminster Constituency which is significantly wrong in a number of cases but I had no better approach.
SMAPS started as just a bit of fun rather than the incredibly prescient forecasting tool it has become.
"Along with dials representing the swing between Conservative and Labour, Conservative and Lib Dem, and Labour and Lib Dem, it will also feature the Scottish National party for the first time, the fourth swingometer charting the battle between Labour and Nicola Sturgeon’s party in Scotland.
Such is the projected scale of the SNP vote that the dial had to be rebuilt to allow the swing to go up to an unprecedented 30%. "
" I fully expect Scotland polling to prove to be remarkably wrong and to be the highlight of the election when the SNP underachieves by a very significant margin."
your expectations have a chance, just a chance, of being met but only if you define underachieving as polling over 40% and winning over 40 seats.
SNP won't win every seat by a long shot. Unionists face unprecedented intimidation in Scotland, and thus are terrified of revealing their opposition to the SNP. I fully expect Scotland polling to prove to be remarkably wrong and to be the highlight of the election when the SNP underachieves by a very significant margin.
SNP are starting on 6. Anything above 12 is a good night for them. Anything above 20 is a great night. Anything above 30 is a redrawing of the political map of Scotland. Above 40 and the political map of the UK is redrawn.
Wipe out of SLAB and SLD in Scotland. A just reward. As you sow so shall you reap. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Claim_of_Right_1989 "A Claim of Right for Scotland was a document crafted by the Campaign for a Scottish Assembly in 1988, declaring the sovereignty of the Scottish people. It was signed by all then-serving Labour and Liberal Democrat MPs"
SNP won't win every seat by a long shot. Unionists face unprecedented intimidation in Scotland, and thus are terrified of revealing their opposition to the SNP. I fully expect Scotland polling to prove to be remarkably wrong and to be the highlight of the election when the SNP underachieves by a very significant margin.
LOL, real bollox from deepest Surrey, come on Avery up your game.
SNP won't win every seat by a long shot. Unionists face unprecedented intimidation in Scotland, and thus are terrified of revealing their opposition to the SNP. I fully expect Scotland polling to prove to be remarkably wrong and to be the highlight of the election when the SNP underachieves by a very significant margin.
I'm on record as saying the SNP would underachieve at the GE; I thought that some Labour voters would put their mark where they always had once in the privacy of the polling booth.
But as the election has neared, the polling is making that increasingly unlikely. We are seeing something truly remarkable.
Mr. Isam, in the 18 years since 1997, we've had 13 years of Scottish Chancellors and 3 years of Scottish Prime Ministers (if we count Blair as English).
Given Scotland has 8% of the population, that's hardly the epitome of anti-democratic oppression.
Token unionist scots in key jobs doesn't alter the fact that scots were are ruled by people they didn't vote for
Mr. Isam, in the 18 years since 1997, we've had 13 years of Scottish Chancellors and 3 years of Scottish Prime Ministers (if we count Blair as English).
Given Scotland has 8% of the population, that's hardly the epitome of anti-democratic oppression.
Mr. Isam, in the 18 years since 1997, we've had 13 years of Scottish Chancellors and 3 years of Scottish Prime Ministers (if we count Blair as English).
Given Scotland has 8% of the population, that's hardly the epitome of anti-democratic oppression.
MD , one supposedly Scottish trougher in an overwhelming London based government pushing unfair London policies does not mean it is fair or democratic.
All the polling evidence (from multiple different pollsters) at present suggests that the SNP vote share is increasing and that their lead over Labour is widening. As Richard Nabavi says, why should we disbelieve the pollsters?
Those of us who have sold Scottish turnout on the spreads should also feel cheerful. It's going to be harder for either side to motivate their voters to turn out for what looks likely to be a landslide. That was one reason why turnout in Britain as a whole was lower in 1997 than in 1992, even when the government changed hands.
SNP won't win every seat by a long shot. Unionists face unprecedented intimidation in Scotland, and thus are terrified of revealing their opposition to the SNP. I fully expect Scotland polling to prove to be remarkably wrong and to be the highlight of the election when the SNP underachieves by a very significant margin.
LOL, real bollox from deepest Surrey, come on Avery up your game.
Have the SNP recruited Luftur Rahman and his mates to cover polling stations?
On topic, I agree with antifrank: it requires an awfully large act of faith to believe that all these polls, using different methodologies and backed up by Lord Ashcroft's individual constituency polls, are so far out that Scottish Labour can have any hope at all. What's more it makes sense - it really is hard to see the point of voting for Scottish Labour, given that the SNP have positioned themselves as truer to Labour's tradition than Labour is.
That's the thing that is so remarkable - the Ashcroft constituency polling pretty much perfectly matches the national polling across the pollsters.
It would have to be a spectacular polling failure for the SNP not to shoot the moon.
With the SNP even more leftie than the Labour Party; on a par with the Communist Party in many respects. Will the next government fortify our border with Scotland? England will need to stop these ravaging Picts from infesting the North.
The Tories are more leftie than labour nowadays, a centre left SNP government will do well with only London right wing parties as competition.
Yes, there is a massive gap in the market for a right wing Scottish party. Either a renamed Tory breakaway (if the Tories are sensible) or a brand new party. Even a well-disguised UKIP offshoot would work if it was done very well and certain people were kept away from it *cough*David Coburn*cough*.
Wipe out of SLAB and SLD in Scotland. A just reward. As you sow so shall you reap. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Claim_of_Right_1989 "A Claim of Right for Scotland was a document crafted by the Campaign for a Scottish Assembly in 1988, declaring the sovereignty of the Scottish people. It was signed by all then-serving Labour and Liberal Democrat MPs"
I hope Carmichael loses his seat, his obstinence cost PBers money at the back end of last year. still odds against I reckon, but I live in hope.
With an attitude like that ("he lost me money so sack him") I'm surprised you're not a Tory
I'll never vote for the muppets of Labour, I think the Lib Dems are an utterly directionless irrelevance, and am half tempted by UKIP - though I don't think calling the SNP racist is particularly helpful. The Salmond posters of the Conservative campaign are a disgrace and noone else is standing in my constituency.
Mr. Isam, in the 18 years since 1997, we've had 13 years of Scottish Chancellors and 3 years of Scottish Prime Ministers (if we count Blair as English).
Given Scotland has 8% of the population, that's hardly the epitome of anti-democratic oppression.
Token unionist scots in key jobs doesn't alter the fact that scots were are ruled by people they didn't vote for
The Scots voted for a Blair-led New Labour party. They got government from a Blair-led New Labour party. They were ruled by exactly the people they voted for.
"Mr. Isam, in the 18 years since 1997, we've had 13 years of Scottish Chancellors and 3 years of Scottish Prime Ministers (if we count Blair as English).
Given Scotland has 8% of the population, that's hardly the epitome of anti-democratic oppression. "
These people were and are unionist Scots and Brit Nats.
Scottish nationalism is not interested in ethnicity, which is why around 28% of English born Scottish residents voted Yes.
FPT. Mike S - very good interview on polling matters. I really enjoyed it. Particularly the trip down memory lane on the formation of pb.com and all that "Kerry" stuff!
I also listened with great interest to your points on the representativeness of the online polling panels, and the issues around randomness in the phone polls. Food for thought.
Scotland Only: Ipsos: SNP 54 Lab 20 Con 17 LD 5 Panel: SNP 51 Lab 26 Con 14 LD 5 TNS: SNP 54 Lab 22 Con 13 LD 6 (face to face)
Scotland Subsamples – Phone Ashcroft: SNP 51 Lab 20 Con 15 LD 6 Comres: SNP 42 Lab 19 Con 17 LD 16 -!!!! ICM: SNP 54 Lab 19 Con 18 LD 5 Ipsos: SNP 51 Lab 17 Con 18 LD 6
Scotland Subsamples – UK Net Opinium: SNP 39 Lab 28 Con 19 LD 5 Populus: SNP 46 Lab 29 Con 14 LD 7 Survation: SNP 48 Lab 25 Con 15 LD 9 TNS: SNP 37 Lab 32 Con 17 LD 12 YG: SNP 43 Lab 28 Con 16 LD 8
Shy unionists or UK internet pollsters pre-loaded with party members and activists?
How about shy nationalists talking to English telephone pollsters? No, can't see that.
Wipe out of SLAB and SLD in Scotland. A just reward. As you sow so shall you reap. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Claim_of_Right_1989 "A Claim of Right for Scotland was a document crafted by the Campaign for a Scottish Assembly in 1988, declaring the sovereignty of the Scottish people. It was signed by all then-serving Labour and Liberal Democrat MPs"
Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.
So if true we will have a 59 seat start for EICIPM from Scotland and the Tory led Coalition support from Scotland down from 12 to zero.
The left of centre Ed led coalition up to 59 seats from 47
And there are about 2 million pencil waverers in England and Wales who will be the deciding factor in this - whether they are prepared for that or not. This election has become de facto an extension of indyref into the whole UK
SNP won't win every seat by a long shot. Unionists face unprecedented intimidation in Scotland, and thus are terrified of revealing their opposition to the SNP. I fully expect Scotland polling to prove to be remarkably wrong and to be the highlight of the election when the SNP underachieves by a very significant margin.
LOL, real bollox from deepest Surrey, come on Avery up your game.
Have the SNP recruited Luftur Rahman and his mates to cover polling stations?
Totally unnecessary , don't you watch or listen to the news
I hope Carmichael loses his seat, his obstinence cost PBers money at the back end of last year. still odds against I reckon, but I live in hope.
And leaking that memo caused me to close out my SNP spin position.
The tosser
The normally unruffled Nabavi was in a bit of a spin over the cackhanded Ziniov attempt, if Nabavi worries, I worry.
I closed out Coatbridge and reopened the profit onto the SNP once it blew over.
I also blame Antifrank.
He thought about it on that thread.
I think about lots of things. Mostly rubbish, to be honest.
I still have an open buy position on the SNP at 20.5 (and for full disclosure, I have recently sold Labour at 8 on the inflammatorily named Scottish regional market). That price on Scottish Labour is still available, somewhat to my surprise given the recent slew of polls.
Comments
Nicola can't win here.
There the presence of regional (Basque, Catalan) parties has meant that the (historic) big two parties only very rarely got absolute majorities. Rather than be blackmailed at the mercy of regional parties to form a government, there was a gentleman's agreement between the big parties to allow the largest party to form a minority government.
Of course, to pass laws required a degree of compromise with smaller parties, or required individual representatives to be willing to ignore their party bosses, but - by and large - the system worked fairly well.
As a Unionist, I'm worried about these rebellious Scots.
Can't someone come up with a strategy to crush Scottish Nationalism stone dead
The tosser
PoliticsHome @politicshome 2h2 hours ago
65% of new households since 1997 were headed by a foreign national, MigrationWatch report says
http://polho.me/1QI5jhL
Says it all really. The truth is even more troublesome for the UK than even UKIP darkest's forecasts.
(Not that I can talk, I don't do spread betting)
Maybe the arrangement ends up being less formal than an actual coalition between the big two, but as it's a new situation I can't imagine abstentions being seen as anything but negative "You let the evil other lot get away with X" by the press and other parties to the left and right of Lab and Con respectively.
One has to laugh dammit!
In 1951, the Labour Party got more votes than the Conservatives, yet they won the election.
I don't buy the masses rising up in disgust at the election result.
I closed out Coatbridge and reopened the profit onto the SNP once it blew over.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1sAVzqjn9iA10c1wVlAwCiR0ycue0P83ixV-Zsak3ufs/edit?usp=sharing
Column S.
It is very, very approximate - I tended towards largest council area determining the Constituency Yes vote.
"Electoral form is severely needed. I can not see how anyone will be able to support the current system."
I half expect various assorted unionists to suggest that FPTP for Westminster be replaced by PR, but only in Scotland-to ensure fair representation for the people of Scotland, of course.
The MSM-and probably BBC Scotland-will give this serious attention before the electorate in Scotland gives them a severe skelping and they are roundly ridiculed on twitter (an approach being used increasingly and effectively by "cybernats" replacing the supposed abuse
Of course, what does "headed" mean? Does it mean that the "Dad" was a foreign national? Is it a net number - or gross?
Not so many safe seats North of the Border, mind you (snigger).
Scotland ruled by Thatcher, Major, Blair and Cameron for 36 years, often against the will of their population... If the SNP hold the whip hand over us Southern Englishmen we will know how it feels
Given Scotland has 8% of the population, that's hardly the epitome of anti-democratic oppression.
On topic, I agree with antifrank: it requires an awfully large act of faith to believe that all these polls, using different methodologies and backed up by Lord Ashcroft's individual constituency polls, are so far out that Scottish Labour can have any hope at all. What's more it makes sense - it really is hard to see the point of voting for Scottish Labour, given that the SNP have positioned themselves as truer to Labour's tradition than Labour is.
I don't believe the staws that some in Labour are clutching at: neither 'shy unionists' nor tactical votes for Labour will save them.
In contrast, popular LibDem incumbents in Scotland will, I think, get some tactical votes from Conservatives and perhaps some Labour unionists, but the SNP tsunami is going to be so powerful that it will sweep all, or nearly all, before it.
SMAPS started as just a bit of fun rather than the incredibly prescient forecasting tool it has become.
Such is the projected scale of the SNP vote that the dial had to be rebuilt to allow the swing to go up to an unprecedented 30%. "
http://www.theguardian.com/media/2015/apr/28/bbc-swingometer-election-2015-unpredictable
" I fully expect Scotland polling to prove to be remarkably wrong and to be the highlight of the election when the SNP underachieves by a very significant margin."
your expectations have a chance, just a chance, of being met but only if you define underachieving as polling over 40% and winning over 40 seats.
Anything above 20 is a great night.
Anything above 30 is a redrawing of the political map of Scotland.
Above 40 and the political map of the UK is redrawn.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Claim_of_Right_1989
"A Claim of Right for Scotland was a document crafted by the Campaign for a Scottish Assembly in 1988, declaring the sovereignty of the Scottish people. It was signed by all then-serving Labour and Liberal Democrat MPs"
But as the election has neared, the polling is making that increasingly unlikely. We are seeing something truly remarkable.
Probably. ;-)
Gordon Brown was many things, but a token he was not.
Those of us who have sold Scottish turnout on the spreads should also feel cheerful. It's going to be harder for either side to motivate their voters to turn out for what looks likely to be a landslide. That was one reason why turnout in Britain as a whole was lower in 1997 than in 1992, even when the government changed hands.
He thought about it on that thread.
It would have to be a spectacular polling failure for the SNP not to shoot the moon.
The left of centre Ed led coalition up to 59 seats from 47
Thanks
"Mr. Isam, in the 18 years since 1997, we've had 13 years of Scottish Chancellors and 3 years of Scottish Prime Ministers (if we count Blair as English).
Given Scotland has 8% of the population, that's hardly the epitome of anti-democratic oppression. "
These people were and are unionist Scots and Brit Nats.
Scottish nationalism is not interested in ethnicity, which is why around 28% of English born Scottish residents voted Yes.
I also listened with great interest to your points on the representativeness of the online polling panels, and the issues around randomness in the phone polls. Food for thought.
Ipsos: SNP 54 Lab 20 Con 17 LD 5
Panel: SNP 51 Lab 26 Con 14 LD 5
TNS: SNP 54 Lab 22 Con 13 LD 6 (face to face)
Scotland Subsamples – Phone
Ashcroft: SNP 51 Lab 20 Con 15 LD 6
Comres: SNP 42 Lab 19 Con 17 LD 16 -!!!!
ICM: SNP 54 Lab 19 Con 18 LD 5
Ipsos: SNP 51 Lab 17 Con 18 LD 6
Scotland Subsamples – UK Net
Opinium: SNP 39 Lab 28 Con 19 LD 5
Populus: SNP 46 Lab 29 Con 14 LD 7
Survation: SNP 48 Lab 25 Con 15 LD 9
TNS: SNP 37 Lab 32 Con 17 LD 12
YG: SNP 43 Lab 28 Con 16 LD 8
Shy unionists or UK internet pollsters pre-loaded with party members and activists?
How about shy nationalists talking to English telephone pollsters? No, can't see that.
I still have an open buy position on the SNP at 20.5 (and for full disclosure, I have recently sold Labour at 8 on the inflammatorily named Scottish regional market). That price on Scottish Labour is still available, somewhat to my surprise given the recent slew of polls.