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  • Survation

    Con 33 (nc) Lab 30 (+1) LD 9 (-1) UKIP 18 (nc) Greens 4 (nc) SNP 5 (+1)
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    surbiton said:

    roadto326 ‏@roadto326 10m10 minutes ago
    Getting to the stage where I want to see a formal Lab/SNP coalition with Sturgeon and Salmond in the cabinet just to wind up the Mail/Sun

    roadto326 ‏@roadto326 10m10 minutes ago
    Getting to the stage where I want to see a formal Lab/SNP coalition with Sturgeon and Salmond in the cabinet just to wind up the Mail/Sun

    You will have a problem with Sturgeon - she's not standing
    We will make her a Dame !
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jy-fVA83gu8
  • compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371

    John O'Farrell retweeted
    Chris Addison ‏@mrchrisaddison 4m4 minutes ago
    Daily Mail: "Scotland Causes Cancer"

    The "Vote Miliband and the world will end" front page must only be days away.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,711
    Right, I will leave the Labourite pb'ers in peace to agree with each other and retweet left-wing bloggers and celebrities that agree with them.

    Enjoy yourselves. Goodnight.
  • dr_spyn said:

    Has Al Murray been seen in Thanet - the whole thing looks like a vanity project to promote his book and his Pub Landlord tour - he is in Bristol on the 6th of May.

    I am delighted to say that we had his first leaflet today

    Some highlights:

    #1 Economy -We make stuff. Sell it for a profit. Common Sense

    Global warming-Promise to raise temperatures by 5 degrees by 2020 to boost Thanet tourism

    Manston (local airport-supposedly a big issue) Base a Squadron of Spitfires here to patrol the English Channel

    Obviously all very tongue in cheek.


    BUT

    His number one pledge actually has more backing for enterprise, entrepreneurship and business than Labour does.


  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216

    Scott_P said:

    @craigawoodhouse: Looking at small print of Labour rent control plan, prices can rise above inflation every 3 years. So presumably they will, big style.

    Yes -- according to the Mirror, increases are capped at inflation within a 3 yr tenancy, beyond that, the only obligation is to inform the renter what the previous rent was - there is no "cap" on any increase.

    As with much Milibandism there is less to this than meets the eye.
    So you agree Pickles/ DH over reacted good
    So you agree Miliband is over promising - good
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    @Rogerdamus

    Delighted to see your powers of prediction undimmed - how many in England would be turned off by this whole Scots thing,,,....

    The SNP.....cannot be trusted to act within the best interests of the UK
    AGREE: 56
    DISAGREE: 16

    Can we trust Andy Murray to be British ?
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,680
    And the reaction of SPIN - Con lead down again to 13.
  • compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371

    Survation

    Con 33 (nc) Lab 30 (+1) LD 9 (-1) UKIP 18 (nc) Greens 4 (nc) SNP 5 (+1)

    Boooooooo!!!!
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,393

    @Rogerdamus

    Delighted to see your powers of prediction undimmed - how many in England would be turned off by this whole Scots thing,,,....

    The SNP.....cannot be trusted to act within the best interests of the UK
    AGREE: 56
    DISAGREE: 16

    As another PBer pointed out tonight, that question could well be asked of other parties.

    Did the survey in fact do so?

  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,313

    roadto326 ‏@roadto326 10m10 minutes ago
    Getting to the stage where I want to see a formal Lab/SNP coalition with Sturgeon and Salmond in the cabinet just to wind up the Mail/Sun

    roadto326 ‏@roadto326 10m10 minutes ago
    Getting to the stage where I want to see a formal Lab/SNP coalition with Sturgeon and Salmond in the cabinet just to wind up the Mail/Sun

    You will have a problem with Sturgeon - she's not standing
    You don't have to be an MP to be in the Cabinet. It's just a convention that any PM can change if it suited.
  • compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371
    MikeK said:


    Survation / Mail on Sunday General Election Poll

    Headline voting intention (change in brackets from our last Mail on Sunday poll on 21 March 2015):
    CON 33% (+3); LAB 30% (-4); UKIP 18% (+1); LD 9% (-1); SNP 5% (+1); GRE 4% (+1); OTHER 1% (-1)

    I'm sticking with your post, that -4 for Labour looks miles better and makes Basil happier.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591
    edited April 2015

    John O'Farrell retweeted
    Chris Addison ‏@mrchrisaddison 4m4 minutes ago
    Daily Mail: "Scotland Causes Cancer"

    The "Vote Miliband and the world will end" front page must only be days away.
    9-10 days I'd say. You cannot pull out the big guns too early now.
  • glwglw Posts: 9,956
    Scott_P said:

    @alexmassie: Rent control is such an obviously bad idea you wonder it has taken Miliband so long to endorse it.Anyway read Krugman http://t.co/b37IbGUIFr

    Well worth reading that linked article. For once lefties won't be quoting Krugman.
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    edited April 2015
    Scott_P said:

    @britainelects: Latest Survation poll (24 - 25 Apr):
    CON - 33% (-)
    LAB - 30% (+1)
    UKIP - 18% (-)
    LDEM - 9% (-1)
    GRN - 4% (-)

    ...Rent controls.....milifandom......Ed's connecting wiv da kidz......

    Tory win nailed on by 4-6.
  • roadto326 ‏@roadto326 10m10 minutes ago
    Getting to the stage where I want to see a formal Lab/SNP coalition with Sturgeon and Salmond in the cabinet just to wind up the Mail/Sun

    roadto326 ‏@roadto326 10m10 minutes ago
    Getting to the stage where I want to see a formal Lab/SNP coalition with Sturgeon and Salmond in the cabinet just to wind up the Mail/Sun

    You will have a problem with Sturgeon - she's not standing
    You don't have to be an MP to be in the Cabinet. It's just a convention that any PM can change if it suited.
    Would like to see how that would play out !!!!
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,680

    Barnesian said:

    kjohnw said:

    john_zims said:

    @Tykejohnno

    'The labour party under Ed miliband is really starting to worry me.

    General election 2015: Labour will toughen hate crimes legislation surrounding Islamophobia'

    Desperate stuff, a great vote loser.

    would charlie hebdo be banned under Miliband. this man is utterly dangerous, freedom of speech as we know it is being destroyed, what about Christians right to speak what they believe, whats Miliband going to do next ban the bible? like they did in USSR?
    I have to admit I'm an Islamophobe. I'm also a Christianophobe. I think the believers in these fairytales are a source of a lot of unhappiness in the world. However I wouldn't deny them the right to continue in their misguided beliefs.

    Read Milibands words. “We are going to change the law on this so we make it absolutely clear of our abhorrence of hate crime and Islamophobia. It will be the first time that the police will record Islamophobic attacks right across the country,” he said.

    He is not talking about Islamophobia per se but about hate crime and attacks based on Islamophobia. I feel quite safe under a Miliband admisnistration as I do not intend my Islamophobia to result in hate crimes and attacks.
    I think that you are rather complacent about this. There is a surprising amount of police investigation of tweets etc just for saying fairly straightforward remarks that are not violent.



    See them in court. Don't be cowed.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Scott_P said:

    @britainelects: Latest Survation poll (24 - 25 Apr):
    CON - 33% (-)
    LAB - 30% (+1)
    UKIP - 18% (-)
    LDEM - 9% (-1)
    GRN - 4% (-)

    So the lead has actually narrowed ? Or, is it Survation's desperate attempt to row back from an obvious outlier ?

    UKIP at 18%. More than 5 seats on that one. I don't believe it though.
  • EastwingerEastwinger Posts: 354
    So only YouGov showing a Labour lead.

    No change there then.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    MikeK said:


    Survation / Mail on Sunday General Election Poll

    Headline voting intention (change in brackets from our last Mail on Sunday poll on 21 March 2015):
    CON 33% (+3); LAB 30% (-4); UKIP 18% (+1); LD 9% (-1); SNP 5% (+1); GRE 4% (+1); OTHER 1% (-1)

    Survation

    Con 33 (nc) Lab 30 (+1) LD 9 (-1) UKIP 18 (nc) Greens 4 (nc) SNP 5 (+1)

    Whats up with those changes? The headline figures are the same but the changes are not.
  • compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371
    edited April 2015
    kle4 said:

    John O'Farrell retweeted
    Chris Addison ‏@mrchrisaddison 4m4 minutes ago
    Daily Mail: "Scotland Causes Cancer"

    The "Vote Miliband and the world will end" front page must only be days away.

    John O'Farrell retweeted
    Chris Addison ‏@mrchrisaddison 4m4 minutes ago
    Daily Mail: "Scotland Causes Cancer"

    The "Vote Miliband and the world will end" front page must only be days away.
    9-10 days I'd say. You cannot pull out the big guns too early now.
    As I said earlier, there will be a joint Front Page stating this across all the right wing papers, on election day,with a picture of the atomic bomb mushroom cloud over Number 10. With the smaller headline, "Will the last person alive turn off the light".You heard it here first.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,533
    glw said:

    Scott_P said:

    @alexmassie: Rent control is such an obviously bad idea you wonder it has taken Miliband so long to endorse it.Anyway read Krugman http://t.co/b37IbGUIFr

    Well worth reading that linked article. For once lefties won't be quoting Krugman.
    Krugman will be out arguing, Rent Control in US bad, Rent Controls in UK good...bit like Coalition failed on the economy, Obama done brilliantly...then you break down the figures and see he is talking out of his arse and that under both the economies of the respective countries have fared about the same.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091

    MikeK said:


    Survation / Mail on Sunday General Election Poll

    Headline voting intention (change in brackets from our last Mail on Sunday poll on 21 March 2015):
    CON 33% (+3); LAB 30% (-4); UKIP 18% (+1); LD 9% (-1); SNP 5% (+1); GRE 4% (+1); OTHER 1% (-1)

    Survation

    Con 33 (nc) Lab 30 (+1) LD 9 (-1) UKIP 18 (nc) Greens 4 (nc) SNP 5 (+1)

    Whats up with those changes? The headline figures are the same but the changes are not.
    One is the change from the last Mail/Survation poll, the other is changes from the Mirror/Survation poll the other day.
  • GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323

    MikeK said:


    Survation / Mail on Sunday General Election Poll

    Headline voting intention (change in brackets from our last Mail on Sunday poll on 21 March 2015):
    CON 33% (+3); LAB 30% (-4); UKIP 18% (+1); LD 9% (-1); SNP 5% (+1); GRE 4% (+1); OTHER 1% (-1)

    Survation

    Con 33 (nc) Lab 30 (+1) LD 9 (-1) UKIP 18 (nc) Greens 4 (nc) SNP 5 (+1)

    Whats up with those changes? The headline figures are the same but the changes are not.
    TSE's are the last Survation Poll (for the Mirror?) whereas foxinsox's are against the last poll for the Mail on Sunday.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Updated SPUD
    The best way of telling the way the political wind is blowing

    3 polls today and the Conservatives equal their best score since the SPUDs were planted on Monday
    16 polls in all this week and 11 different pollsters

    (I have compared tonights YG w last Saturday's for the Times and tonight's Survation with their last for the MoS, not the one from earlier in the week)

    Day/Week
    Con 0 /-8
    Lab -5/-12
    UKIP +2/+7
    LD +1/+1
    Grn +3/+2
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    This was retweeted by a Labour MP:

    https://twitter.com/dhothersall/status/524507840191684608

    Looking at the handwriting, the due diligence done was nil. The desperation is tangible.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,533

    So only YouGov showing a Labour lead.

    No change there then.

    YouGov isn't out yet is it?
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    How much longer will YG persevere with their Lab lead weightings?
  • GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323
    Interesting to see whether this is 2010 Tories leaving the population, rather than 2010 Lab joining.
  • So only YouGov showing a Labour lead.

    No change there then.

    I think they need to switch off and re-boot. That's the best remedy when your pc becomes frozen
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Scott_P said:

    @SunPolitics: Cocky Ed Miliband declares he’s ‘going to win’ despite the polls http://t.co/XonBIi2Fj9 http://t.co/fU0rfeuG8s

    'Shortly there will be an election, in which Labour will increase its majority'

    Don't the Sun regularly publish a poll showing Labour ahead?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415
    Anecdotal:

    Not a single Labour poster up in my neck of the woods yet (V close to Rother Valley)

    Don't write off UKIP gaining Rotherham/Rother Valley or Conservatives taking NE Derbyshire, though I suspect all 3 unlikely.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    kjohnw said:

    john_zims said:

    @Tykejohnno

    'The labour party under Ed miliband is really starting to worry me.

    General election 2015: Labour will toughen hate crimes legislation surrounding Islamophobia'

    Desperate stuff, a great vote loser.

    would charlie hebdo be banned under Miliband. this man is utterly dangerous, freedom of speech as we know it is being destroyed, what about Christians right to speak what they believe, whats Miliband going to do next ban the bible? like they did in USSR?
    I have to admit I'm an Islamophobe. I'm also a Christianophobe. I think the believers in these fairytales are a source of a lot of unhappiness in the world. However I wouldn't deny them the right to continue in their misguided beliefs.

    Read Milibands words. “We are going to change the law on this so we make it absolutely clear of our abhorrence of hate crime and Islamophobia. It will be the first time that the police will record Islamophobic attacks right across the country,” he said.

    He is not talking about Islamophobia per se but about hate crime and attacks based on Islamophobia. I feel quite safe under a Miliband admisnistration as I do not intend my Islamophobia to result in hate crimes and attacks.
    I think that you are rather complacent about this. There is a surprising amount of police investigation of tweets etc just for saying fairly straightforward remarks that are not violent.



    See them in court. Don't be cowed.
    A lot of people will be. Just look at Rotherham, Tower Hamlets etc. Being labelled as an Islamophobe is not comfortable for anyone in the public sector, and we see the consequences.
  • That's huge. Is this the SNP beginning to show an effect
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300

    dr_spyn said:

    Has Al Murray been seen in Thanet - the whole thing looks like a vanity project to promote his book and his Pub Landlord tour - he is in Bristol on the 6th of May.

    I am delighted to say that we had his first leaflet today

    Some highlights:

    #1 Economy -We make stuff. Sell it for a profit. Common Sense

    Global warming-Promise to raise temperatures by 5 degrees by 2020 to boost Thanet tourism

    Manston (local airport-supposedly a big issue) Base a Squadron of Spitfires here to patrol the English Channel

    Obviously all very tongue in cheek.


    BUT

    His number one pledge actually has more backing for enterprise, entrepreneurship and business than Labour does.


    I saw his book on sale, but hadn't enough time to have a flick through. The FUKP name is straight out of a student rag mag, but Murray must be sure that the loss of his deposit is a small cost relative to the revenues from his touring show.
  • Three year tenancy agreement:


    Not sure if it has already been said but: Under English /Welsh law-a 3 year agreement is a DEED and therefore requires to be drawn up by a solicitor.

    I am sure that will be a cost saving to tenants.

    Disclosure-I work in property and I rent my family home.

    I would also point out that outside London, Public sector rents have outpaced private sector rents since 2008,

    The average increase for the past year outside London was 2.3%




  • MikeK said:


    Survation / Mail on Sunday General Election Poll

    Headline voting intention (change in brackets from our last Mail on Sunday poll on 21 March 2015):
    CON 33% (+3); LAB 30% (-4); UKIP 18% (+1); LD 9% (-1); SNP 5% (+1); GRE 4% (+1); OTHER 1% (-1)

    Survation

    Con 33 (nc) Lab 30 (+1) LD 9 (-1) UKIP 18 (nc) Greens 4 (nc) SNP 5 (+1)

    Whats up with those changes? The headline figures are the same but the changes are not.
    I'm comparing it to the last Survation poll (for the Mirror on Thursday)

    Survation and the Mail on Sunday, are comparing it to their last poll for the Mail on Sunday which was in March
  • compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371
    " Is this the SNP beginning to show an effect".....it's not a day on PB now, without someone throwing this in.
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    edited April 2015
    Labour seats in the coalfields and up the east coast must be vulnerable if this is accurate. Anywhere that the Tories have no chance and are prepared to vote tactically.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,803

    Barnesian said:

    kjohnw said:

    john_zims said:

    @Tykejohnno

    'The labour party under Ed miliband is really starting to worry me.

    General election 2015: Labour will toughen hate crimes legislation surrounding Islamophobia'

    Desperate stuff, a great vote loser.

    would charlie hebdo be banned under Miliband. this man is utterly dangerous, freedom of speech as we know it is being destroyed, what about Christians right to speak what they believe, whats Miliband going to do next ban the bible? like they did in USSR?
    I have to admit I'm an Islamophobe. I'm also a Christianophobe. I think the believers in these fairytales are a source of a lot of unhappiness in the world. However I wouldn't deny them the right to continue in their misguided beliefs.

    Read Milibands words. “We are going to change the law on this so we make it absolutely clear of our abhorrence of hate crime and Islamophobia. It will be the first time that the police will record Islamophobic attacks right across the country,” he said.

    He is not talking about Islamophobia per se but about hate crime and attacks based on Islamophobia. I feel quite safe under a Miliband admisnistration as I do not intend my Islamophobia to result in hate crimes and attacks.
    I think that you are rather complacent about this. There is a surprising amount of police investigation of tweets etc just for saying fairly straightforward remarks that are not violent.

    ' A teenager has been arrested by police investigating abuse of Team GB diver Tom Daley on Twitter.

    After coming fourth in the men's synchronised 10m platform diving event on Monday, the 18-year-old from Plymouth received a message telling him he had let down his father, Rob.

    A 17-year-old boy was arrested at a guest house in the Weymouth area on suspicion of malicious communications. '

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-19059127

    I wouldn't be surprised if everyone who had posted at PB was now on some surveillance list somewhere.

  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,393
    antifrank said:

    This was retweeted by a Labour MP:

    https://twitter.com/dhothersall/status/524507840191684608

    Looking at the handwriting, the due diligence done was nil. The desperation is tangible.

    Rather like the claims that (the very young) Ms or rather Miss Sturgeon cut the hair off her sister's Barbie (TM) doll. As any fule kno, it was a Sindy doll ...

  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,313

    roadto326 ‏@roadto326 10m10 minutes ago
    Getting to the stage where I want to see a formal Lab/SNP coalition with Sturgeon and Salmond in the cabinet just to wind up the Mail/Sun

    roadto326 ‏@roadto326 10m10 minutes ago
    Getting to the stage where I want to see a formal Lab/SNP coalition with Sturgeon and Salmond in the cabinet just to wind up the Mail/Sun

    You will have a problem with Sturgeon - she's not standing
    You don't have to be an MP to be in the Cabinet. It's just a convention that any PM can change if it suited.
    Would like to see how that would play out !!!!
    Well, if it was Sturgeon it might be a bit controversial I suppose. But if you are going to bring non-MPs into the Government I'd argue it would be better than giving them a stupid title and a lifelong sinecure in the Lords.

  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736

    That's huge. Is this the SNP beginning to show an effect
    You are Tom Newton-Sun

    And I claim my prize
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,393

    roadto326 ‏@roadto326 10m10 minutes ago
    Getting to the stage where I want to see a formal Lab/SNP coalition with Sturgeon and Salmond in the cabinet just to wind up the Mail/Sun

    roadto326 ‏@roadto326 10m10 minutes ago
    Getting to the stage where I want to see a formal Lab/SNP coalition with Sturgeon and Salmond in the cabinet just to wind up the Mail/Sun

    You will have a problem with Sturgeon - she's not standing
    You don't have to be an MP to be in the Cabinet. It's just a convention that any PM can change if it suited.
    Would like to see how that would play out !!!!
    Well, if it was Sturgeon it might be a bit controversial I suppose. But if you are going to bring non-MPs into the Government I'd argue it would be better than giving them a stupid title and a lifelong sinecure in the Lords.

    Especially as accepting a peerage is the quickest way possible for Ms Sturgeon to resign her membership of the SNP, never mind leadership.

  • compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371
    Is that it for tonights polls?: Clear as mud again.
  • glwglw Posts: 9,956

    glw said:

    Scott_P said:

    @alexmassie: Rent control is such an obviously bad idea you wonder it has taken Miliband so long to endorse it.Anyway read Krugman http://t.co/b37IbGUIFr

    Well worth reading that linked article. For once lefties won't be quoting Krugman.
    Krugman will be out arguing, Rent Control in US bad, Rent Controls in UK good...bit like Coalition failed on the economy, Obama done brilliantly...then you break down the figures and see he is talking out of his arse and that under both the economies of the respective countries have fared about the same.
    Oh I know his views are malleable to suit his politics, but I don't think Krugman would argue that rent controls are a good idea.
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    isam said:

    Updated SPUD
    The best way of telling the way the political wind is blowing

    3 polls today and the Conservatives equal their best score since the SPUDs were planted on Monday
    16 polls in all this week and 11 different pollsters

    (I have compared tonights YG w last Saturday's for the Times and tonight's Survation with their last for the MoS, not the one from earlier in the week)

    Day/Week
    Con 0 /-8
    Lab -5/-12
    UKIP +2/+7
    LD +1/+1
    Grn +3/+2

    You do understand that your Comfort Interpreting, right ?
  • roadto326 ‏@roadto326 10m10 minutes ago
    Getting to the stage where I want to see a formal Lab/SNP coalition with Sturgeon and Salmond in the cabinet just to wind up the Mail/Sun

    roadto326 ‏@roadto326 10m10 minutes ago
    Getting to the stage where I want to see a formal Lab/SNP coalition with Sturgeon and Salmond in the cabinet just to wind up the Mail/Sun

    You will have a problem with Sturgeon - she's not standing
    You don't have to be an MP to be in the Cabinet. It's just a convention that any PM can change if it suited.
    Would like to see how that would play out !!!!
    Well, if it was Sturgeon it might be a bit controversial I suppose. But if you are going to bring non-MPs into the Government I'd argue it would be better than giving them a stupid title and a lifelong sinecure in the Lords.

    I think it would be more than a bit contrversial
  • GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323

    roadto326 ‏@roadto326 10m10 minutes ago
    Getting to the stage where I want to see a formal Lab/SNP coalition with Sturgeon and Salmond in the cabinet just to wind up the Mail/Sun

    roadto326 ‏@roadto326 10m10 minutes ago
    Getting to the stage where I want to see a formal Lab/SNP coalition with Sturgeon and Salmond in the cabinet just to wind up the Mail/Sun

    You will have a problem with Sturgeon - she's not standing
    You don't have to be an MP to be in the Cabinet. It's just a convention that any PM can change if it suited.
    Would like to see how that would play out !!!!
    Well, if it was Sturgeon it might be a bit controversial I suppose. But if you are going to bring non-MPs into the Government I'd argue it would be better than giving them a stupid title and a lifelong sinecure in the Lords.

    She's an MSP after all, Ed should just do it. She's an elected member of a devolved parliament and First Minister, not a random oik off the streets.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    These anti-market countries like:

    Canada, Germany, United States should know better. The Tories don't like it.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rent_control
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    chestnut said:

    Labour seats in the coalfields and up the east coast must be vulnerable if this is accurate. Anywhere that the Tories have no chance and are prepared to vote tactically.
    The resilience of Tory votes in Labour safe seats whether in Scotland or elsewhere suggests that Tories don't do tactical voting. To be honest I don't think many people in any party do. People choose their afiliation for a reason and tend to stick to it.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,149
    Survation is for The Mule on Sunday?
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    edited April 2015

    That's huge. Is this the SNP beginning to show an effect
    50% of Labour supporters are opposed to a Labour/SNP coalition.

    https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/igafr21zkl/SunResults_150421_GE2015_SNP_Website.pdf
  • Barnesian said:

    And the reaction of SPIN - Con lead down again to 13.

    And a marginal move to Cameron as PM on Betfair. Ladbrokes prediction on Conservative seats (based on favourite in individual seats) has fluctuated from 278 down to 277 and now back to 278. Labour have dropped as SNP gone up, but basically no change in England over the last 3 weeks.
  • That's huge. Is this the SNP beginning to show an effect
    You are Tom Newton-Sun

    And I claim my prize
    I am most emphatically not Tom Newton Dunn
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Carnyx said:

    roadto326 ‏@roadto326 10m10 minutes ago
    Getting to the stage where I want to see a formal Lab/SNP coalition with Sturgeon and Salmond in the cabinet just to wind up the Mail/Sun

    roadto326 ‏@roadto326 10m10 minutes ago
    Getting to the stage where I want to see a formal Lab/SNP coalition with Sturgeon and Salmond in the cabinet just to wind up the Mail/Sun

    You will have a problem with Sturgeon - she's not standing
    You don't have to be an MP to be in the Cabinet. It's just a convention that any PM can change if it suited.
    Would like to see how that would play out !!!!
    Well, if it was Sturgeon it might be a bit controversial I suppose. But if you are going to bring non-MPs into the Government I'd argue it would be better than giving them a stupid title and a lifelong sinecure in the Lords.

    Especially as accepting a peerage is the quickest way possible for Ms Sturgeon to resign her membership of the SNP, never mind leadership.

    What an excellent plan! Get her into ermin ASAP..
  • compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371

    That's huge. Is this the SNP beginning to show an effect
    You are Tom Newton-Sun

    And I claim my prize
    I am most emphatically not Tom Newton Dunn
    Tory Newton Dunn then?
  • scotslassscotslass Posts: 912
    Note SNP at 50 per cent in Survation sub sample. On real polls I am told next SNP surge is in the Sunday Times Scotland tomorrow.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,533
    surbiton said:

    These anti-market countries like:

    Canada, Germany, United States should know better. The Tories don't like it.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rent_control

    Go listen to a Freakanomics podcast on what perverse effects rent controls in places like NYC have.
  • That's huge. Is this the SNP beginning to show an effect
    You are Tom Newton-Sun

    And I claim my prize
    I am most emphatically not Tom Newton Dunn
    Tory Newton Dunn then?
    No not even Tory Newton Dunn
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    roadto326 ‏@roadto326 10m10 minutes ago
    Getting to the stage where I want to see a formal Lab/SNP coalition with Sturgeon and Salmond in the cabinet just to wind up the Mail/Sun

    roadto326 ‏@roadto326 10m10 minutes ago
    Getting to the stage where I want to see a formal Lab/SNP coalition with Sturgeon and Salmond in the cabinet just to wind up the Mail/Sun

    You will have a problem with Sturgeon - she's not standing
    You don't have to be an MP to be in the Cabinet. It's just a convention that any PM can change if it suited.
    Would like to see how that would play out !!!!
    Well, if it was Sturgeon it might be a bit controversial I suppose. But if you are going to bring non-MPs into the Government I'd argue it would be better than giving them a stupid title and a lifelong sinecure in the Lords.

    I think it would be more than a bit contrversial
    The Sun, daily Mail, Express, the Carlton Club, this Club, that Club will be apoplectic with rage and betrayal of the war dead ! Oops, the Scots dies in the Wars too !
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Tim Shipman (@ShippersUnbound)
    25/04/2015 21:58
    Tory donor Peter Hall: "If we don’t have a Conservative government after May 7 it will be because of David Cameron."
  • compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371

    That's huge. Is this the SNP beginning to show an effect
    You are Tom Newton-Sun

    And I claim my prize
    I am most emphatically not Tom Newton Dunn
    Tory Newton Dunn then?
    No not even Tory Newton Dunn
    If you admit to be Dan Hodges I will be fecking devastated.
  • glwglw Posts: 9,956
    surbiton said:

    These anti-market countries like:

    Canada, Germany, United States should know better. The Tories don't like it.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rent_control

    It is nothing to do with being anti-market, it is to do with being ineffective or even counter productive. But you don't care, because if Ed is for it you are for it.
  • GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323

    surbiton said:

    These anti-market countries like:

    Canada, Germany, United States should know better. The Tories don't like it.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rent_control

    Go listen to a Freakanomics podcast on what perverse effects rent controls in places like NYC have.
    WHo needs to go as far as NYC? Rent controls were a disaster in the UK. Far more comparables between 70s England and 2015 England than internationally.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,149
    Changes from the last Survation poll for the Mail on Sunday (21st March):

    Con +3
    Lab -4
    UKIP +1
    LD -1
    Grn +1
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108

    roadto326 ‏@roadto326 10m10 minutes ago
    Getting to the stage where I want to see a formal Lab/SNP coalition with Sturgeon and Salmond in the cabinet just to wind up the Mail/Sun

    roadto326 ‏@roadto326 10m10 minutes ago
    Getting to the stage where I want to see a formal Lab/SNP coalition with Sturgeon and Salmond in the cabinet just to wind up the Mail/Sun

    You will have a problem with Sturgeon - she's not standing
    You don't have to be an MP to be in the Cabinet. It's just a convention that any PM can change if it suited.
    Would like to see how that would play out !!!!
    Well, if it was Sturgeon it might be a bit controversial I suppose. But if you are going to bring non-MPs into the Government I'd argue it would be better than giving them a stupid title and a lifelong sinecure in the Lords.

    "In the Interests of the coherent unity of my United Kingdom, my Government will introduce legislation to allow members of the Devolved Assemblies in Northern Ireland, Wales and Scotland to accept roles in my cabinet" - Queen's Speech May 2015.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited April 2015
    Dair said:

    isam said:

    Updated SPUD
    The best way of telling the way the political wind is blowing

    3 polls today and the Conservatives equal their best score since the SPUDs were planted on Monday
    16 polls in all this week and 11 different pollsters

    (I have compared tonights YG w last Saturday's for the Times and tonight's Survation with their last for the MoS, not the one from earlier in the week)

    Day/Week
    Con 0 /-8
    Lab -5/-12
    UKIP +2/+7
    LD +1/+1
    Grn +3/+2

    You do understand that your Comfort Interpreting, right ?
    I'm doing no such thing actually

    I can't help who is improving and who is regressing

    Let's have a bet on your prediction of Ukip 7%

    I will actually give you 1% start as a nous handicap

    I'll buy a grand at 8%

    Deal?

  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    isam said:

    Tim Shipman (@ShippersUnbound)
    25/04/2015 21:58
    Tory donor Peter Hall: "If we don’t have a Conservative government after May 7 it will be because of David Cameron."

    Wheels coming off
  • compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371
    edited April 2015

    Changes from the last Survation poll for the Mail on Sunday (21st March):

    Con +3
    Lab -4
    UKIP +1
    LD -1
    Grn +1

    Dem der are the figures that count. If you actually check the poll from Survation 13 March 2011, Labour are actually down 12%. I believe that poll is more relevent ;-)
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    Mike Smithson ‏@MSmithsonPB 2m2 minutes ago
    So the big polling picture is that it's all very close and forecasting what's going to happen is only for the brave

    Scotland the brave?
  • compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371

    isam said:

    Tim Shipman (@ShippersUnbound)
    25/04/2015 21:58
    Tory donor Peter Hall: "If we don’t have a Conservative government after May 7 it will be because of David Cameron."

    Wheels coming off
    BLUEONBLUE INCOMING!
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,313
    Grandiose said:

    roadto326 ‏@roadto326 10m10 minutes ago
    Getting to the stage where I want to see a formal Lab/SNP coalition with Sturgeon and Salmond in the cabinet just to wind up the Mail/Sun

    roadto326 ‏@roadto326 10m10 minutes ago
    Getting to the stage where I want to see a formal Lab/SNP coalition with Sturgeon and Salmond in the cabinet just to wind up the Mail/Sun

    You will have a problem with Sturgeon - she's not standing
    You don't have to be an MP to be in the Cabinet. It's just a convention that any PM can change if it suited.
    Would like to see how that would play out !!!!
    Well, if it was Sturgeon it might be a bit controversial I suppose. But if you are going to bring non-MPs into the Government I'd argue it would be better than giving them a stupid title and a lifelong sinecure in the Lords.

    She's an MSP after all, Ed should just do it. She's an elected member of a devolved parliament and First Minister, not a random oik off the streets.
    It shouldn't matter, in fact the PM is quite entitled to appoint a random oik off the street. It is being both a legislator and a Government minister that is the conflict of interest.

  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736

    Changes from the last Survation poll for the Mail on Sunday (21st March):

    Con +3
    Lab -4
    UKIP +1
    LD -1
    Grn +1

    Dem der are the figures that count. If you actually check the poll from Survation 13 March 2011, Labour are actually down 12%. I believe that poll is more relevent ;-)
    Ed is Crap
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    isam said:

    Tim Shipman (@ShippersUnbound)
    25/04/2015 21:58
    Tory donor Peter Hall: "If we don’t have a Conservative government after May 7 it will be because of David Cameron."

    There goes your knighthood or depending on your donation, your baron,,,,,, [ whatever it is called ]
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207

    I am pretty Islamophonic. If people want to practise their Moslem faith, that's fine. But they have to accept others will not share their views. Allah will sort it all out anyway, and me and many others will burn in hell. But in this life, I'll carry on believing my daughter is entitled to every freedom and opportunity my sons have, thank-you very much; and I'll be phobic about anyone or any religion that says otherwise, or whose followers do. Fuck 'em.

    Ed should be steering well clear of this. That he isn't just tells me he is not up to leadership. We have enough laws already to deal with hate that leads to physical attack and discrimination. Verbal attack is not nice when suffered, but can be recovered from or, even better, ignored.

    Well said
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415
    How many votes will the SNP get ?

    Yes
    1,617,989

    84% correlation iirc:

    & 10% of "No"

    2,001,926

    1.36 m + 200k

    Going from 85% turnout to 70%:

    1.28 million

    Would PBers be buyers or sellers at 1.3 million ?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591

    isam said:

    Tim Shipman (@ShippersUnbound)
    25/04/2015 21:58
    Tory donor Peter Hall: "If we don’t have a Conservative government after May 7 it will be because of David Cameron."

    Wheels coming off
    BLUEONBLUE INCOMING!
    I must say I find the idea floated in some quarters (well i saw it once, that counts) that Cameron could survive as PM if he didn't even win most seats pretty remarkable when you consider comments like that Hall one, which are not unusual. I would like to know who they think would have done better, and what they would have done differently. Not that lack of alternatives would be an endorsement of Cameron's leadership, but there are some really bad other Tories out there.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415
    edited April 2015

    Mike Smithson ‏@MSmithsonPB 2m2 minutes ago
    So the big polling picture is that it's all very close and forecasting what's going to happen is only for the brave

    Scotland the brave?

    I'd say playing the SPIN for the Con-Lab seat gap is very very "brave" indeed.

    Anywhere between 220 and 300 is on for Labour I reckon !
  • That's huge. Is this the SNP beginning to show an effect
    You are Tom Newton-Sun

    And I claim my prize
    I am most emphatically not Tom Newton Dunn
    Tory Newton Dunn then?
    No not even Tory Newton Dunn
    If you admit to be Dan Hodges I will be fecking devastated.
    Good try - I did think of saying yes but decided that, as always, honesty is the best policy in politics
  • compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371

    Changes from the last Survation poll for the Mail on Sunday (21st March):

    Con +3
    Lab -4
    UKIP +1
    LD -1
    Grn +1

    Dem der are the figures that count. If you actually check the poll from Survation 13 March 2011, Labour are actually down 12%. I believe that poll is more relevent ;-)
    Ed is Crap
    Is it true that new people who now join PB have to write Ed is Crap a million times and present it personally to OGH before you are allowed to join?
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    isam said:

    Dair said:

    isam said:

    Updated SPUD
    The best way of telling the way the political wind is blowing

    3 polls today and the Conservatives equal their best score since the SPUDs were planted on Monday
    16 polls in all this week and 11 different pollsters

    (I have compared tonights YG w last Saturday's for the Times and tonight's Survation with their last for the MoS, not the one from earlier in the week)

    Day/Week
    Con 0 /-8
    Lab -5/-12
    UKIP +2/+7
    LD +1/+1
    Grn +3/+2

    You do understand that your Comfort Interpreting, right ?
    I'm doing no such thing actually

    I can't help who is improving and who is regressing

    Let's have a bet on your prediction of Ukip 7%

    I will actually give you 1% start as a nous handicap

    I'll buy a grand at 8%

    Deal?

    When the two polls you decide will not be compared to the previous poll by the organisation but by a random choice of previous polls purely to give your desired outcome more credibility, it is Comfort Interpretation. Failure to divide your integers by the number of polls involved also makes your number meaningless. You have turned Comfort Interpretation up to 11.

    I have money on my expected outcomes and at better odds than you are offering already. Any additional stakes I have available will be going on Orkney and Zetland and a few other bets unrelated to UKIPs failure.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    edited April 2015
    glw said:

    surbiton said:

    These anti-market countries like:

    Canada, Germany, United States should know better. The Tories don't like it.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rent_control

    It is nothing to do with being anti-market, it is to do with being ineffective or even counter productive. But you don't care, because if Ed is for it you are for it.
    I am loving this EIC. He is throwing a new curve ball to you lot every now and then and you just cannot hit him.

    Who else do you know could lose 30-35 seats as a block and still aspire to be PM ?

    EIC, the most under-rated politician !
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,533
    surbiton said:

    glw said:

    surbiton said:

    These anti-market countries like:

    Canada, Germany, United States should know better. The Tories don't like it.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rent_control

    It is nothing to do with being anti-market, it is to do with being ineffective or even counter productive. But you don't care, because if Ed is for it you are for it.
    I am loving this EIC. He is throwing anew curve ball to you lot every now and then and you just cannot fathom him.

    Who else do you know could lose 30-35 seats as a block and still aspire to be PM.

    Good man !
    Rent Controls policy isn't new though is it. He announced it ages ago and it got panned then.
  • compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371

    That's huge. Is this the SNP beginning to show an effect
    You are Tom Newton-Sun

    And I claim my prize
    I am most emphatically not Tom Newton Dunn
    Tory Newton Dunn then?
    No not even Tory Newton Dunn
    If you admit to be Dan Hodges I will be fecking devastated.
    honesty is the best policy in politics
    You would never make an MP.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,680
    That could be significant.

    My model shows UKIP votes made up of 2010 voters:

    42% Con
    27% UKIP
    17% BNP
    8% Lab
    6% LD


    For 2010 Lab to be 19% of UKIP votes, UKIP would have to be taking 7% (rather than 3%) of 2010 Lab voters.

    The consequence would be: Con 284 seats, Lab 259 seats - which is quite a difference.

    It is Survation and there is large MOE on subsamples - so I'm not changing my predictions of baiscally equal seats of 272, - but I'll definitely keep an eye on this.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    Survation has some good supplementals.

    "Imagining a situation where a Labour minority government was formed after the election with the support of the Scottish National Party, which of the following would be closest to how you would feel about this outcome? Base: All Respondents"

    Labour voters
    Relaxed: 32%
    angry: 6%
    Worried: 29%
    Excited: 16%

    p.39
    http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/MoSTablesku89634.pdf
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,313
    kle4 said:

    isam said:

    Tim Shipman (@ShippersUnbound)
    25/04/2015 21:58
    Tory donor Peter Hall: "If we don’t have a Conservative government after May 7 it will be because of David Cameron."

    Wheels coming off
    BLUEONBLUE INCOMING!
    I must say I find the idea floated in some quarters (well i saw it once, that counts) that Cameron could survive as PM if he didn't even win most seats pretty remarkable when you consider comments like that Hall one, which are not unusual. I would like to know who they think would have done better, and what they would have done differently. Not that lack of alternatives would be an endorsement of Cameron's leadership, but there are some really bad other Tories out there.
    People tend to come up with ludicrous ideas like people vote Labour because the Tories aren't right wing enough. Personally I'd be fairly happy with a continuation of the Coalition.

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591
    edited April 2015

    Grandiose said:

    roadto326 ‏@roadto326 10m10 minutes ago
    Getting to the stage where I want to see a formal Lab/SNP coalition with Sturgeon and Salmond in the cabinet just to wind up the Mail/Sun

    roadto326 ‏@roadto326 10m10 minutes ago
    Getting to the stage where I want to see a formal Lab/SNP coalition with Sturgeon and Salmond in the cabinet just to wind up the Mail/Sun

    You will have a problem with Sturgeon - she's not standing
    You don't have to be an MP to be in the Cabinet. It's just a convention that any PM can change if it suited.
    Would like to see how that would play out !!!!
    Well, if it was Sturgeon it might be a bit controversial I suppose. But if you are going to bring non-MPs into the Government I'd argue it would be better than giving them a stupid title and a lifelong sinecure in the Lords.

    She's an MSP after all, Ed should just do it. She's an elected member of a devolved parliament and First Minister, not a random oik off the streets.
    It shouldn't matter, in fact the PM is quite entitled to appoint a random oik off the street.

    In that case, I suggest in order to tackle the lack of engagement in politics problem, whoever is PM should immediately appoint someone off the street as Minister of Random Oik Nation to at last understand, and respect, the common man/woman. With any luck said person will not spot their new acronym from the elite.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091

    surbiton said:

    glw said:

    surbiton said:

    These anti-market countries like:

    Canada, Germany, United States should know better. The Tories don't like it.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rent_control

    It is nothing to do with being anti-market, it is to do with being ineffective or even counter productive. But you don't care, because if Ed is for it you are for it.
    I am loving this EIC. He is throwing anew curve ball to you lot every now and then and you just cannot fathom him.

    Who else do you know could lose 30-35 seats as a block and still aspire to be PM.

    Good man !
    Rent Controls policy isn't new though is it. He announced it ages ago and it got panned then.
    Panned by the Westminster bubble, but led to surprisingly strong results in London in the elections last year.
  • YouGov: when we ask people who they would support if Boris Johnson led the party, he converts a two-point deficit into a three-point lead.
  • compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371
    surbiton said:

    glw said:

    surbiton said:

    These anti-market countries like:

    Canada, Germany, United States should know better. The Tories don't like it.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rent_control

    It is nothing to do with being anti-market, it is to do with being ineffective or even counter productive. But you don't care, because if Ed is for it you are for it.
    I am loving this EIC. He is throwing a new curve ball to you lot every now and then and you just cannot hit him.

    Who else do you know could lose 30-35 seats as a block and still aspire to be PM ?

    EIC, the most under-rated politician !
    Will you keep this down and to yourself. EIC and will remain EIC until he walks into Number 10. Then we can all laugh at people posting that he will never be PM, swingbacks, SNP cut through, Shy Tory, UKIP slicing into Labour vote etc.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415
    Barnesian said:

    That could be significant.

    My model shows UKIP votes made up of 2010 voters:

    42% Con
    27% UKIP
    17% BNP
    8% Lab
    6% LD


    For 2010 Lab to be 19% of UKIP votes, UKIP would have to be taking 7% (rather than 3%) of 2010 Lab voters.

    The consequence would be: Con 284 seats, Lab 259 seats - which is quite a difference.

    It is Survation and there is large MOE on subsamples - so I'm not changing my predictions of baiscally equal seats of 272, - but I'll definitely keep an eye on this.
    The England effect will be bigger too, UKIP aren't eating into any of SLAB's 2010 voters. Are you treating 2010 ELAB and 2010 SLAB differently in your model. If this is right, Labour sub 250 for sure.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,533
    edited April 2015
    Danny565 said:

    surbiton said:

    glw said:

    surbiton said:

    These anti-market countries like:

    Canada, Germany, United States should know better. The Tories don't like it.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rent_control

    It is nothing to do with being anti-market, it is to do with being ineffective or even counter productive. But you don't care, because if Ed is for it you are for it.
    I am loving this EIC. He is throwing anew curve ball to you lot every now and then and you just cannot fathom him.

    Who else do you know could lose 30-35 seats as a block and still aspire to be PM.

    Good man !
    Rent Controls policy isn't new though is it. He announced it ages ago and it got panned then.
    Panned by the Westminster bubble, but led to surprisingly strong results in London in the elections last year.
    I said down thread that I am sure it will be popular. Doesn't mean it is a good policy.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    edited April 2015
    Pulpstar said:

    How many votes will the SNP get ?

    Yes
    1,617,989

    84% correlation iirc:

    & 10% of "No"

    2,001,926

    1.36 m + 200k

    Going from 85% turnout to 70%:

    1.28 million

    Would PBers be buyers or sellers at 1.3 million ?

    You are saying they will get 50.5% [ 45% + 10% of 55% ] ?
  • compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371

    YouGov: when we ask people who they would support if Boris Johnson led the party, he converts a two-point deficit into a three-point lead.

    PLEASE,PLEASE,PLEASE.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    Pulpstar said:

    Mike Smithson ‏@MSmithsonPB 2m2 minutes ago
    So the big polling picture is that it's all very close and forecasting what's going to happen is only for the brave

    Scotland the brave?

    I'd say playing the SPIN for the Con-Lab seat gap is very very "brave" indeed.

    Anywhere between 220 and 300 is on for Labour I reckon !
    Too risky by half.

    Posterville City Arizona in Chesterfield now. 1 UKIP 2 LD 4.8million LAB!!!

    Wooden posts suppliers having bumper month
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,533
    edited April 2015

    YouGov: when we ask people who they would support if Boris Johnson led the party, he converts a two-point deficit into a three-point lead.

    If you want a fun 20 mins. Go listen to him doing FAQ's on Freakonomics podcast. It is classic Boris, involving his taking his shoes off to find out how makes them.
This discussion has been closed.