roadto326 @roadto326 10m10 minutes ago Getting to the stage where I want to see a formal Lab/SNP coalition with Sturgeon and Salmond in the cabinet just to wind up the Mail/Sun
roadto326 @roadto326 10m10 minutes ago Getting to the stage where I want to see a formal Lab/SNP coalition with Sturgeon and Salmond in the cabinet just to wind up the Mail/Sun
You will have a problem with Sturgeon - she's not standing
Has Al Murray been seen in Thanet - the whole thing looks like a vanity project to promote his book and his Pub Landlord tour - he is in Bristol on the 6th of May.
I am delighted to say that we had his first leaflet today
Some highlights:
#1 Economy -We make stuff. Sell it for a profit. Common Sense
Global warming-Promise to raise temperatures by 5 degrees by 2020 to boost Thanet tourism
Manston (local airport-supposedly a big issue) Base a Squadron of Spitfires here to patrol the English Channel
Obviously all very tongue in cheek.
BUT
His number one pledge actually has more backing for enterprise, entrepreneurship and business than Labour does.
@craigawoodhouse: Looking at small print of Labour rent control plan, prices can rise above inflation every 3 years. So presumably they will, big style.
Yes -- according to the Mirror, increases are capped at inflation within a 3 yr tenancy, beyond that, the only obligation is to inform the renter what the previous rent was - there is no "cap" on any increase.
As with much Milibandism there is less to this than meets the eye.
roadto326 @roadto326 10m10 minutes ago Getting to the stage where I want to see a formal Lab/SNP coalition with Sturgeon and Salmond in the cabinet just to wind up the Mail/Sun
roadto326 @roadto326 10m10 minutes ago Getting to the stage where I want to see a formal Lab/SNP coalition with Sturgeon and Salmond in the cabinet just to wind up the Mail/Sun
You will have a problem with Sturgeon - she's not standing
You don't have to be an MP to be in the Cabinet. It's just a convention that any PM can change if it suited.
Headline voting intention (change in brackets from our last Mail on Sunday poll on 21 March 2015): CON 33% (+3); LAB 30% (-4); UKIP 18% (+1); LD 9% (-1); SNP 5% (+1); GRE 4% (+1); OTHER 1% (-1)
I'm sticking with your post, that -4 for Labour looks miles better and makes Basil happier.
@alexmassie: Rent control is such an obviously bad idea you wonder it has taken Miliband so long to endorse it.Anyway read Krugman http://t.co/b37IbGUIFr
Well worth reading that linked article. For once lefties won't be quoting Krugman.
roadto326 @roadto326 10m10 minutes ago Getting to the stage where I want to see a formal Lab/SNP coalition with Sturgeon and Salmond in the cabinet just to wind up the Mail/Sun
roadto326 @roadto326 10m10 minutes ago Getting to the stage where I want to see a formal Lab/SNP coalition with Sturgeon and Salmond in the cabinet just to wind up the Mail/Sun
You will have a problem with Sturgeon - she's not standing
You don't have to be an MP to be in the Cabinet. It's just a convention that any PM can change if it suited.
'The labour party under Ed miliband is really starting to worry me.
General election 2015: Labour will toughen hate crimes legislation surrounding Islamophobia'
Desperate stuff, a great vote loser.
would charlie hebdo be banned under Miliband. this man is utterly dangerous, freedom of speech as we know it is being destroyed, what about Christians right to speak what they believe, whats Miliband going to do next ban the bible? like they did in USSR?
I have to admit I'm an Islamophobe. I'm also a Christianophobe. I think the believers in these fairytales are a source of a lot of unhappiness in the world. However I wouldn't deny them the right to continue in their misguided beliefs.
Read Milibands words. “We are going to change the law on this so we make it absolutely clear of our abhorrence of hate crime and Islamophobia. It will be the first time that the police will record Islamophobic attacks right across the country,” he said.
He is not talking about Islamophobia per se but about hate crime and attacks based on Islamophobia. I feel quite safe under a Miliband admisnistration as I do not intend my Islamophobia to result in hate crimes and attacks.
I think that you are rather complacent about this. There is a surprising amount of police investigation of tweets etc just for saying fairly straightforward remarks that are not violent.
Headline voting intention (change in brackets from our last Mail on Sunday poll on 21 March 2015): CON 33% (+3); LAB 30% (-4); UKIP 18% (+1); LD 9% (-1); SNP 5% (+1); GRE 4% (+1); OTHER 1% (-1)
John O'Farrell retweeted Chris Addison @mrchrisaddison 4m4 minutes ago Daily Mail: "Scotland Causes Cancer"
The "Vote Miliband and the world will end" front page must only be days away.
9-10 days I'd say. You cannot pull out the big guns too early now.
As I said earlier, there will be a joint Front Page stating this across all the right wing papers, on election day,with a picture of the atomic bomb mushroom cloud over Number 10. With the smaller headline, "Will the last person alive turn off the light".You heard it here first.
@alexmassie: Rent control is such an obviously bad idea you wonder it has taken Miliband so long to endorse it.Anyway read Krugman http://t.co/b37IbGUIFr
Well worth reading that linked article. For once lefties won't be quoting Krugman.
Krugman will be out arguing, Rent Control in US bad, Rent Controls in UK good...bit like Coalition failed on the economy, Obama done brilliantly...then you break down the figures and see he is talking out of his arse and that under both the economies of the respective countries have fared about the same.
Headline voting intention (change in brackets from our last Mail on Sunday poll on 21 March 2015): CON 33% (+3); LAB 30% (-4); UKIP 18% (+1); LD 9% (-1); SNP 5% (+1); GRE 4% (+1); OTHER 1% (-1)
Headline voting intention (change in brackets from our last Mail on Sunday poll on 21 March 2015): CON 33% (+3); LAB 30% (-4); UKIP 18% (+1); LD 9% (-1); SNP 5% (+1); GRE 4% (+1); OTHER 1% (-1)
Updated SPUD The best way of telling the way the political wind is blowing
3 polls today and the Conservatives equal their best score since the SPUDs were planted on Monday 16 polls in all this week and 11 different pollsters
(I have compared tonights YG w last Saturday's for the Times and tonight's Survation with their last for the MoS, not the one from earlier in the week)
'The labour party under Ed miliband is really starting to worry me.
General election 2015: Labour will toughen hate crimes legislation surrounding Islamophobia'
Desperate stuff, a great vote loser.
would charlie hebdo be banned under Miliband. this man is utterly dangerous, freedom of speech as we know it is being destroyed, what about Christians right to speak what they believe, whats Miliband going to do next ban the bible? like they did in USSR?
I have to admit I'm an Islamophobe. I'm also a Christianophobe. I think the believers in these fairytales are a source of a lot of unhappiness in the world. However I wouldn't deny them the right to continue in their misguided beliefs.
Read Milibands words. “We are going to change the law on this so we make it absolutely clear of our abhorrence of hate crime and Islamophobia. It will be the first time that the police will record Islamophobic attacks right across the country,” he said.
He is not talking about Islamophobia per se but about hate crime and attacks based on Islamophobia. I feel quite safe under a Miliband admisnistration as I do not intend my Islamophobia to result in hate crimes and attacks.
I think that you are rather complacent about this. There is a surprising amount of police investigation of tweets etc just for saying fairly straightforward remarks that are not violent.
See them in court. Don't be cowed.
A lot of people will be. Just look at Rotherham, Tower Hamlets etc. Being labelled as an Islamophobe is not comfortable for anyone in the public sector, and we see the consequences.
Has Al Murray been seen in Thanet - the whole thing looks like a vanity project to promote his book and his Pub Landlord tour - he is in Bristol on the 6th of May.
I am delighted to say that we had his first leaflet today
Some highlights:
#1 Economy -We make stuff. Sell it for a profit. Common Sense
Global warming-Promise to raise temperatures by 5 degrees by 2020 to boost Thanet tourism
Manston (local airport-supposedly a big issue) Base a Squadron of Spitfires here to patrol the English Channel
Obviously all very tongue in cheek.
BUT
His number one pledge actually has more backing for enterprise, entrepreneurship and business than Labour does.
I saw his book on sale, but hadn't enough time to have a flick through. The FUKP name is straight out of a student rag mag, but Murray must be sure that the loss of his deposit is a small cost relative to the revenues from his touring show.
Headline voting intention (change in brackets from our last Mail on Sunday poll on 21 March 2015): CON 33% (+3); LAB 30% (-4); UKIP 18% (+1); LD 9% (-1); SNP 5% (+1); GRE 4% (+1); OTHER 1% (-1)
Labour seats in the coalfields and up the east coast must be vulnerable if this is accurate. Anywhere that the Tories have no chance and are prepared to vote tactically.
'The labour party under Ed miliband is really starting to worry me.
General election 2015: Labour will toughen hate crimes legislation surrounding Islamophobia'
Desperate stuff, a great vote loser.
would charlie hebdo be banned under Miliband. this man is utterly dangerous, freedom of speech as we know it is being destroyed, what about Christians right to speak what they believe, whats Miliband going to do next ban the bible? like they did in USSR?
I have to admit I'm an Islamophobe. I'm also a Christianophobe. I think the believers in these fairytales are a source of a lot of unhappiness in the world. However I wouldn't deny them the right to continue in their misguided beliefs.
Read Milibands words. “We are going to change the law on this so we make it absolutely clear of our abhorrence of hate crime and Islamophobia. It will be the first time that the police will record Islamophobic attacks right across the country,” he said.
He is not talking about Islamophobia per se but about hate crime and attacks based on Islamophobia. I feel quite safe under a Miliband admisnistration as I do not intend my Islamophobia to result in hate crimes and attacks.
I think that you are rather complacent about this. There is a surprising amount of police investigation of tweets etc just for saying fairly straightforward remarks that are not violent.
' A teenager has been arrested by police investigating abuse of Team GB diver Tom Daley on Twitter.
After coming fourth in the men's synchronised 10m platform diving event on Monday, the 18-year-old from Plymouth received a message telling him he had let down his father, Rob.
A 17-year-old boy was arrested at a guest house in the Weymouth area on suspicion of malicious communications. '
Looking at the handwriting, the due diligence done was nil. The desperation is tangible.
Rather like the claims that (the very young) Ms or rather Miss Sturgeon cut the hair off her sister's Barbie (TM) doll. As any fule kno, it was a Sindy doll ...
roadto326 @roadto326 10m10 minutes ago Getting to the stage where I want to see a formal Lab/SNP coalition with Sturgeon and Salmond in the cabinet just to wind up the Mail/Sun
roadto326 @roadto326 10m10 minutes ago Getting to the stage where I want to see a formal Lab/SNP coalition with Sturgeon and Salmond in the cabinet just to wind up the Mail/Sun
You will have a problem with Sturgeon - she's not standing
You don't have to be an MP to be in the Cabinet. It's just a convention that any PM can change if it suited.
Would like to see how that would play out !!!!
Well, if it was Sturgeon it might be a bit controversial I suppose. But if you are going to bring non-MPs into the Government I'd argue it would be better than giving them a stupid title and a lifelong sinecure in the Lords.
roadto326 @roadto326 10m10 minutes ago Getting to the stage where I want to see a formal Lab/SNP coalition with Sturgeon and Salmond in the cabinet just to wind up the Mail/Sun
roadto326 @roadto326 10m10 minutes ago Getting to the stage where I want to see a formal Lab/SNP coalition with Sturgeon and Salmond in the cabinet just to wind up the Mail/Sun
You will have a problem with Sturgeon - she's not standing
You don't have to be an MP to be in the Cabinet. It's just a convention that any PM can change if it suited.
Would like to see how that would play out !!!!
Well, if it was Sturgeon it might be a bit controversial I suppose. But if you are going to bring non-MPs into the Government I'd argue it would be better than giving them a stupid title and a lifelong sinecure in the Lords.
Especially as accepting a peerage is the quickest way possible for Ms Sturgeon to resign her membership of the SNP, never mind leadership.
@alexmassie: Rent control is such an obviously bad idea you wonder it has taken Miliband so long to endorse it.Anyway read Krugman http://t.co/b37IbGUIFr
Well worth reading that linked article. For once lefties won't be quoting Krugman.
Krugman will be out arguing, Rent Control in US bad, Rent Controls in UK good...bit like Coalition failed on the economy, Obama done brilliantly...then you break down the figures and see he is talking out of his arse and that under both the economies of the respective countries have fared about the same.
Oh I know his views are malleable to suit his politics, but I don't think Krugman would argue that rent controls are a good idea.
Updated SPUD The best way of telling the way the political wind is blowing
3 polls today and the Conservatives equal their best score since the SPUDs were planted on Monday 16 polls in all this week and 11 different pollsters
(I have compared tonights YG w last Saturday's for the Times and tonight's Survation with their last for the MoS, not the one from earlier in the week)
roadto326 @roadto326 10m10 minutes ago Getting to the stage where I want to see a formal Lab/SNP coalition with Sturgeon and Salmond in the cabinet just to wind up the Mail/Sun
roadto326 @roadto326 10m10 minutes ago Getting to the stage where I want to see a formal Lab/SNP coalition with Sturgeon and Salmond in the cabinet just to wind up the Mail/Sun
You will have a problem with Sturgeon - she's not standing
You don't have to be an MP to be in the Cabinet. It's just a convention that any PM can change if it suited.
Would like to see how that would play out !!!!
Well, if it was Sturgeon it might be a bit controversial I suppose. But if you are going to bring non-MPs into the Government I'd argue it would be better than giving them a stupid title and a lifelong sinecure in the Lords.
roadto326 @roadto326 10m10 minutes ago Getting to the stage where I want to see a formal Lab/SNP coalition with Sturgeon and Salmond in the cabinet just to wind up the Mail/Sun
roadto326 @roadto326 10m10 minutes ago Getting to the stage where I want to see a formal Lab/SNP coalition with Sturgeon and Salmond in the cabinet just to wind up the Mail/Sun
You will have a problem with Sturgeon - she's not standing
You don't have to be an MP to be in the Cabinet. It's just a convention that any PM can change if it suited.
Would like to see how that would play out !!!!
Well, if it was Sturgeon it might be a bit controversial I suppose. But if you are going to bring non-MPs into the Government I'd argue it would be better than giving them a stupid title and a lifelong sinecure in the Lords.
She's an MSP after all, Ed should just do it. She's an elected member of a devolved parliament and First Minister, not a random oik off the streets.
Labour seats in the coalfields and up the east coast must be vulnerable if this is accurate. Anywhere that the Tories have no chance and are prepared to vote tactically.
The resilience of Tory votes in Labour safe seats whether in Scotland or elsewhere suggests that Tories don't do tactical voting. To be honest I don't think many people in any party do. People choose their afiliation for a reason and tend to stick to it.
And the reaction of SPIN - Con lead down again to 13.
And a marginal move to Cameron as PM on Betfair. Ladbrokes prediction on Conservative seats (based on favourite in individual seats) has fluctuated from 278 down to 277 and now back to 278. Labour have dropped as SNP gone up, but basically no change in England over the last 3 weeks.
roadto326 @roadto326 10m10 minutes ago Getting to the stage where I want to see a formal Lab/SNP coalition with Sturgeon and Salmond in the cabinet just to wind up the Mail/Sun
roadto326 @roadto326 10m10 minutes ago Getting to the stage where I want to see a formal Lab/SNP coalition with Sturgeon and Salmond in the cabinet just to wind up the Mail/Sun
You will have a problem with Sturgeon - she's not standing
You don't have to be an MP to be in the Cabinet. It's just a convention that any PM can change if it suited.
Would like to see how that would play out !!!!
Well, if it was Sturgeon it might be a bit controversial I suppose. But if you are going to bring non-MPs into the Government I'd argue it would be better than giving them a stupid title and a lifelong sinecure in the Lords.
Especially as accepting a peerage is the quickest way possible for Ms Sturgeon to resign her membership of the SNP, never mind leadership.
roadto326 @roadto326 10m10 minutes ago Getting to the stage where I want to see a formal Lab/SNP coalition with Sturgeon and Salmond in the cabinet just to wind up the Mail/Sun
roadto326 @roadto326 10m10 minutes ago Getting to the stage where I want to see a formal Lab/SNP coalition with Sturgeon and Salmond in the cabinet just to wind up the Mail/Sun
You will have a problem with Sturgeon - she's not standing
You don't have to be an MP to be in the Cabinet. It's just a convention that any PM can change if it suited.
Would like to see how that would play out !!!!
Well, if it was Sturgeon it might be a bit controversial I suppose. But if you are going to bring non-MPs into the Government I'd argue it would be better than giving them a stupid title and a lifelong sinecure in the Lords.
I think it would be more than a bit contrversial
The Sun, daily Mail, Express, the Carlton Club, this Club, that Club will be apoplectic with rage and betrayal of the war dead ! Oops, the Scots dies in the Wars too !
Tim Shipman (@ShippersUnbound) 25/04/2015 21:58 Tory donor Peter Hall: "If we don’t have a Conservative government after May 7 it will be because of David Cameron."
It is nothing to do with being anti-market, it is to do with being ineffective or even counter productive. But you don't care, because if Ed is for it you are for it.
Go listen to a Freakanomics podcast on what perverse effects rent controls in places like NYC have.
WHo needs to go as far as NYC? Rent controls were a disaster in the UK. Far more comparables between 70s England and 2015 England than internationally.
roadto326 @roadto326 10m10 minutes ago Getting to the stage where I want to see a formal Lab/SNP coalition with Sturgeon and Salmond in the cabinet just to wind up the Mail/Sun
roadto326 @roadto326 10m10 minutes ago Getting to the stage where I want to see a formal Lab/SNP coalition with Sturgeon and Salmond in the cabinet just to wind up the Mail/Sun
You will have a problem with Sturgeon - she's not standing
You don't have to be an MP to be in the Cabinet. It's just a convention that any PM can change if it suited.
Would like to see how that would play out !!!!
Well, if it was Sturgeon it might be a bit controversial I suppose. But if you are going to bring non-MPs into the Government I'd argue it would be better than giving them a stupid title and a lifelong sinecure in the Lords.
"In the Interests of the coherent unity of my United Kingdom, my Government will introduce legislation to allow members of the Devolved Assemblies in Northern Ireland, Wales and Scotland to accept roles in my cabinet" - Queen's Speech May 2015.
Updated SPUD The best way of telling the way the political wind is blowing
3 polls today and the Conservatives equal their best score since the SPUDs were planted on Monday 16 polls in all this week and 11 different pollsters
(I have compared tonights YG w last Saturday's for the Times and tonight's Survation with their last for the MoS, not the one from earlier in the week)
Tim Shipman (@ShippersUnbound) 25/04/2015 21:58 Tory donor Peter Hall: "If we don’t have a Conservative government after May 7 it will be because of David Cameron."
Changes from the last Survation poll for the Mail on Sunday (21st March):
Con +3 Lab -4 UKIP +1 LD -1 Grn +1
Dem der are the figures that count. If you actually check the poll from Survation 13 March 2011, Labour are actually down 12%. I believe that poll is more relevent ;-)
Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB 2m2 minutes ago So the big polling picture is that it's all very close and forecasting what's going to happen is only for the brave
Tim Shipman (@ShippersUnbound) 25/04/2015 21:58 Tory donor Peter Hall: "If we don’t have a Conservative government after May 7 it will be because of David Cameron."
roadto326 @roadto326 10m10 minutes ago Getting to the stage where I want to see a formal Lab/SNP coalition with Sturgeon and Salmond in the cabinet just to wind up the Mail/Sun
roadto326 @roadto326 10m10 minutes ago Getting to the stage where I want to see a formal Lab/SNP coalition with Sturgeon and Salmond in the cabinet just to wind up the Mail/Sun
You will have a problem with Sturgeon - she's not standing
You don't have to be an MP to be in the Cabinet. It's just a convention that any PM can change if it suited.
Would like to see how that would play out !!!!
Well, if it was Sturgeon it might be a bit controversial I suppose. But if you are going to bring non-MPs into the Government I'd argue it would be better than giving them a stupid title and a lifelong sinecure in the Lords.
She's an MSP after all, Ed should just do it. She's an elected member of a devolved parliament and First Minister, not a random oik off the streets.
It shouldn't matter, in fact the PM is quite entitled to appoint a random oik off the street. It is being both a legislator and a Government minister that is the conflict of interest.
Changes from the last Survation poll for the Mail on Sunday (21st March):
Con +3 Lab -4 UKIP +1 LD -1 Grn +1
Dem der are the figures that count. If you actually check the poll from Survation 13 March 2011, Labour are actually down 12%. I believe that poll is more relevent ;-)
Tim Shipman (@ShippersUnbound) 25/04/2015 21:58 Tory donor Peter Hall: "If we don’t have a Conservative government after May 7 it will be because of David Cameron."
There goes your knighthood or depending on your donation, your baron,,,,,, [ whatever it is called ]
I am pretty Islamophonic. If people want to practise their Moslem faith, that's fine. But they have to accept others will not share their views. Allah will sort it all out anyway, and me and many others will burn in hell. But in this life, I'll carry on believing my daughter is entitled to every freedom and opportunity my sons have, thank-you very much; and I'll be phobic about anyone or any religion that says otherwise, or whose followers do. Fuck 'em.
Ed should be steering well clear of this. That he isn't just tells me he is not up to leadership. We have enough laws already to deal with hate that leads to physical attack and discrimination. Verbal attack is not nice when suffered, but can be recovered from or, even better, ignored.
Tim Shipman (@ShippersUnbound) 25/04/2015 21:58 Tory donor Peter Hall: "If we don’t have a Conservative government after May 7 it will be because of David Cameron."
Wheels coming off
BLUEONBLUE INCOMING!
I must say I find the idea floated in some quarters (well i saw it once, that counts) that Cameron could survive as PM if he didn't even win most seats pretty remarkable when you consider comments like that Hall one, which are not unusual. I would like to know who they think would have done better, and what they would have done differently. Not that lack of alternatives would be an endorsement of Cameron's leadership, but there are some really bad other Tories out there.
Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB 2m2 minutes ago So the big polling picture is that it's all very close and forecasting what's going to happen is only for the brave
Scotland the brave?
I'd say playing the SPIN for the Con-Lab seat gap is very very "brave" indeed.
Anywhere between 220 and 300 is on for Labour I reckon !
Changes from the last Survation poll for the Mail on Sunday (21st March):
Con +3 Lab -4 UKIP +1 LD -1 Grn +1
Dem der are the figures that count. If you actually check the poll from Survation 13 March 2011, Labour are actually down 12%. I believe that poll is more relevent ;-)
Ed is Crap
Is it true that new people who now join PB have to write Ed is Crap a million times and present it personally to OGH before you are allowed to join?
Updated SPUD The best way of telling the way the political wind is blowing
3 polls today and the Conservatives equal their best score since the SPUDs were planted on Monday 16 polls in all this week and 11 different pollsters
(I have compared tonights YG w last Saturday's for the Times and tonight's Survation with their last for the MoS, not the one from earlier in the week)
You do understand that your Comfort Interpreting, right ?
I'm doing no such thing actually
I can't help who is improving and who is regressing
Let's have a bet on your prediction of Ukip 7%
I will actually give you 1% start as a nous handicap
I'll buy a grand at 8%
Deal?
When the two polls you decide will not be compared to the previous poll by the organisation but by a random choice of previous polls purely to give your desired outcome more credibility, it is Comfort Interpretation. Failure to divide your integers by the number of polls involved also makes your number meaningless. You have turned Comfort Interpretation up to 11.
I have money on my expected outcomes and at better odds than you are offering already. Any additional stakes I have available will be going on Orkney and Zetland and a few other bets unrelated to UKIPs failure.
It is nothing to do with being anti-market, it is to do with being ineffective or even counter productive. But you don't care, because if Ed is for it you are for it.
I am loving this EIC. He is throwing a new curve ball to you lot every now and then and you just cannot hit him.
Who else do you know could lose 30-35 seats as a block and still aspire to be PM ?
It is nothing to do with being anti-market, it is to do with being ineffective or even counter productive. But you don't care, because if Ed is for it you are for it.
I am loving this EIC. He is throwing anew curve ball to you lot every now and then and you just cannot fathom him.
Who else do you know could lose 30-35 seats as a block and still aspire to be PM.
Good man !
Rent Controls policy isn't new though is it. He announced it ages ago and it got panned then.
For 2010 Lab to be 19% of UKIP votes, UKIP would have to be taking 7% (rather than 3%) of 2010 Lab voters.
The consequence would be: Con 284 seats, Lab 259 seats - which is quite a difference.
It is Survation and there is large MOE on subsamples - so I'm not changing my predictions of baiscally equal seats of 272, - but I'll definitely keep an eye on this.
"Imagining a situation where a Labour minority government was formed after the election with the support of the Scottish National Party, which of the following would be closest to how you would feel about this outcome? Base: All Respondents"
Labour voters Relaxed: 32% angry: 6% Worried: 29% Excited: 16%
Tim Shipman (@ShippersUnbound) 25/04/2015 21:58 Tory donor Peter Hall: "If we don’t have a Conservative government after May 7 it will be because of David Cameron."
Wheels coming off
BLUEONBLUE INCOMING!
I must say I find the idea floated in some quarters (well i saw it once, that counts) that Cameron could survive as PM if he didn't even win most seats pretty remarkable when you consider comments like that Hall one, which are not unusual. I would like to know who they think would have done better, and what they would have done differently. Not that lack of alternatives would be an endorsement of Cameron's leadership, but there are some really bad other Tories out there.
People tend to come up with ludicrous ideas like people vote Labour because the Tories aren't right wing enough. Personally I'd be fairly happy with a continuation of the Coalition.
roadto326 @roadto326 10m10 minutes ago Getting to the stage where I want to see a formal Lab/SNP coalition with Sturgeon and Salmond in the cabinet just to wind up the Mail/Sun
roadto326 @roadto326 10m10 minutes ago Getting to the stage where I want to see a formal Lab/SNP coalition with Sturgeon and Salmond in the cabinet just to wind up the Mail/Sun
You will have a problem with Sturgeon - she's not standing
You don't have to be an MP to be in the Cabinet. It's just a convention that any PM can change if it suited.
Would like to see how that would play out !!!!
Well, if it was Sturgeon it might be a bit controversial I suppose. But if you are going to bring non-MPs into the Government I'd argue it would be better than giving them a stupid title and a lifelong sinecure in the Lords.
She's an MSP after all, Ed should just do it. She's an elected member of a devolved parliament and First Minister, not a random oik off the streets.
It shouldn't matter, in fact the PM is quite entitled to appoint a random oik off the street.
In that case, I suggest in order to tackle the lack of engagement in politics problem, whoever is PM should immediately appoint someone off the street as Minister of Random Oik Nation to at last understand, and respect, the common man/woman. With any luck said person will not spot their new acronym from the elite.
It is nothing to do with being anti-market, it is to do with being ineffective or even counter productive. But you don't care, because if Ed is for it you are for it.
I am loving this EIC. He is throwing anew curve ball to you lot every now and then and you just cannot fathom him.
Who else do you know could lose 30-35 seats as a block and still aspire to be PM.
Good man !
Rent Controls policy isn't new though is it. He announced it ages ago and it got panned then.
Panned by the Westminster bubble, but led to surprisingly strong results in London in the elections last year.
It is nothing to do with being anti-market, it is to do with being ineffective or even counter productive. But you don't care, because if Ed is for it you are for it.
I am loving this EIC. He is throwing a new curve ball to you lot every now and then and you just cannot hit him.
Who else do you know could lose 30-35 seats as a block and still aspire to be PM ?
EIC, the most under-rated politician !
Will you keep this down and to yourself. EIC and will remain EIC until he walks into Number 10. Then we can all laugh at people posting that he will never be PM, swingbacks, SNP cut through, Shy Tory, UKIP slicing into Labour vote etc.
For 2010 Lab to be 19% of UKIP votes, UKIP would have to be taking 7% (rather than 3%) of 2010 Lab voters.
The consequence would be: Con 284 seats, Lab 259 seats - which is quite a difference.
It is Survation and there is large MOE on subsamples - so I'm not changing my predictions of baiscally equal seats of 272, - but I'll definitely keep an eye on this.
The England effect will be bigger too, UKIP aren't eating into any of SLAB's 2010 voters. Are you treating 2010 ELAB and 2010 SLAB differently in your model. If this is right, Labour sub 250 for sure.
It is nothing to do with being anti-market, it is to do with being ineffective or even counter productive. But you don't care, because if Ed is for it you are for it.
I am loving this EIC. He is throwing anew curve ball to you lot every now and then and you just cannot fathom him.
Who else do you know could lose 30-35 seats as a block and still aspire to be PM.
Good man !
Rent Controls policy isn't new though is it. He announced it ages ago and it got panned then.
Panned by the Westminster bubble, but led to surprisingly strong results in London in the elections last year.
I said down thread that I am sure it will be popular. Doesn't mean it is a good policy.
Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB 2m2 minutes ago So the big polling picture is that it's all very close and forecasting what's going to happen is only for the brave
Scotland the brave?
I'd say playing the SPIN for the Con-Lab seat gap is very very "brave" indeed.
Anywhere between 220 and 300 is on for Labour I reckon !
Too risky by half.
Posterville City Arizona in Chesterfield now. 1 UKIP 2 LD 4.8million LAB!!!
YouGov: when we ask people who they would support if Boris Johnson led the party, he converts a two-point deficit into a three-point lead.
If you want a fun 20 mins. Go listen to him doing FAQ's on Freakonomics podcast. It is classic Boris, involving his taking his shoes off to find out how makes them.
Comments
Con 33 (nc) Lab 30 (+1) LD 9 (-1) UKIP 18 (nc) Greens 4 (nc) SNP 5 (+1)
Enjoy yourselves. Goodnight.
Some highlights:
#1 Economy -We make stuff. Sell it for a profit. Common Sense
Global warming-Promise to raise temperatures by 5 degrees by 2020 to boost Thanet tourism
Manston (local airport-supposedly a big issue) Base a Squadron of Spitfires here to patrol the English Channel
Obviously all very tongue in cheek.
BUT
His number one pledge actually has more backing for enterprise, entrepreneurship and business than Labour does.
Did the survey in fact do so?
Survation follows the trend.
Tory win nailed on by 4-6.
UKIP at 18%. More than 5 seats on that one. I don't believe it though.
No change there then.
The best way of telling the way the political wind is blowing
3 polls today and the Conservatives equal their best score since the SPUDs were planted on Monday
16 polls in all this week and 11 different pollsters
(I have compared tonights YG w last Saturday's for the Times and tonight's Survation with their last for the MoS, not the one from earlier in the week)
Day/Week
Con 0 /-8
Lab -5/-12
UKIP +2/+7
LD +1/+1
Grn +3/+2
https://twitter.com/dhothersall/status/524507840191684608
Looking at the handwriting, the due diligence done was nil. The desperation is tangible.
Not a single Labour poster up in my neck of the woods yet (V close to Rother Valley)
Don't write off UKIP gaining Rotherham/Rother Valley or Conservatives taking NE Derbyshire, though I suspect all 3 unlikely.
Not sure if it has already been said but: Under English /Welsh law-a 3 year agreement is a DEED and therefore requires to be drawn up by a solicitor.
I am sure that will be a cost saving to tenants.
Disclosure-I work in property and I rent my family home.
I would also point out that outside London, Public sector rents have outpaced private sector rents since 2008,
The average increase for the past year outside London was 2.3%
Survation and the Mail on Sunday, are comparing it to their last poll for the Mail on Sunday which was in March
After coming fourth in the men's synchronised 10m platform diving event on Monday, the 18-year-old from Plymouth received a message telling him he had let down his father, Rob.
A 17-year-old boy was arrested at a guest house in the Weymouth area on suspicion of malicious communications. '
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-19059127
I wouldn't be surprised if everyone who had posted at PB was now on some surveillance list somewhere.
And I claim my prize
Canada, Germany, United States should know better. The Tories don't like it.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rent_control
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/igafr21zkl/SunResults_150421_GE2015_SNP_Website.pdf
25/04/2015 21:58
Tory donor Peter Hall: "If we don’t have a Conservative government after May 7 it will be because of David Cameron."
Con +3
Lab -4
UKIP +1
LD -1
Grn +1
I can't help who is improving and who is regressing
Let's have a bet on your prediction of Ukip 7%
I will actually give you 1% start as a nous handicap
I'll buy a grand at 8%
Deal?
So the big polling picture is that it's all very close and forecasting what's going to happen is only for the brave
Scotland the brave?
Yes
1,617,989
84% correlation iirc:
& 10% of "No"
2,001,926
1.36 m + 200k
Going from 85% turnout to 70%:
1.28 million
Would PBers be buyers or sellers at 1.3 million ?
Anywhere between 220 and 300 is on for Labour I reckon !
I have money on my expected outcomes and at better odds than you are offering already. Any additional stakes I have available will be going on Orkney and Zetland and a few other bets unrelated to UKIPs failure.
Who else do you know could lose 30-35 seats as a block and still aspire to be PM ?
EIC, the most under-rated politician !
My model shows UKIP votes made up of 2010 voters:
42% Con
27% UKIP
17% BNP
8% Lab
6% LD
For 2010 Lab to be 19% of UKIP votes, UKIP would have to be taking 7% (rather than 3%) of 2010 Lab voters.
The consequence would be: Con 284 seats, Lab 259 seats - which is quite a difference.
It is Survation and there is large MOE on subsamples - so I'm not changing my predictions of baiscally equal seats of 272, - but I'll definitely keep an eye on this.
"Imagining a situation where a Labour minority government was formed after the election with the support of the Scottish National Party, which of the following would be closest to how you would feel about this outcome? Base: All Respondents"
Labour voters
Relaxed: 32%
angry: 6%
Worried: 29%
Excited: 16%
p.39
http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/MoSTablesku89634.pdf
Posterville City Arizona in Chesterfield now. 1 UKIP 2 LD 4.8million LAB!!!
Wooden posts suppliers having bumper month