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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The first of tonight’s three polls has the Tories still ahead but their lead falls from four to one
Actually that @OpiniumResearch poll is Con 34 (-2) Lab 33 (+1) LD 9 (+1) UKIP 13 (nc) Greens 6 (+1) pic.twitter.com/Tpcy1ObelP
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When are we going to get final electorate numbers?
But this was not how it was meant to be at this point, is it?
[Edited to remove a comparison which was, perhaps, a shade harsh].
It's quite nice for a leader not to be full of crap but if we ever get one I'd see it as a bonus not a necessity.
Strangely you seem to want to stop people cycling for fitness; I hardly think it's clever security to strap red boxes and official papers onto the crossbar.
I yield to no one in my belief that Cameron has been a dismal Conservative Leader and PM, but this is a non-story.
Hopefully they won't bother voting.
Your average Commercials Director has so many fawning minions running around after them, I doubt he even has to shake his own winky after a piddle.
Presumably what happens next is that some clever journalist tries to entrap Cameron by asking if he can name Aston Villa's current scrum half.
Unfortunately for him, it's going to be a were you up for Chloe Smith night
This means there are 3,500 or so University of Cambridge votes. If the LibDems got 50% last time and dropped to 5% this time, it would mean a loss of 1,750 votes. A large number, sure, but probably not enough to swing the election on its own.
So the Tories have switched to their latest gimmick "Cameron says he is a West Ham fan, vote Tory", and that joins their list of the Ed Is Crap and SNP Is The Devil as their main policy platform.
So, I doubt you'll get any takers.
Then again, I'm a privileged white male face, so I know nothing. What time is X factor on?
"Presumably what happens next is that some clever journalist tries to entrap Cameron by asking if he can name Aston Villa's current scrum half."
Very good!
Sean. I'm surprised you haven't heard it anywhere. It's on just about every radio station I turn on. It does make you wonder whether there's anything happening in the world
The truest test of the way the political wind is blowing
14 polls this week, from 9 different pollsters
Con -10
Lab -6
UKIP +5
LD +1
Green NC
"Your average Commercials Director has so many fawning minions running around after them, I doubt he even has to shake his own winky after a piddle."
That was a true story I heard about Michael Winner during a very cold spell in Madrid. He apparently didn't want to take his gloves off and the whole crew were instructed to stand in a line behind him! I was told it by his obliging first assistant! (You're obviously in the business or a client?)
For Huppert to lose Cambridge would require (a) the Ashcroft polling to be wildly wrong, and (b) the Labour Party to reverse its secular decline in the seat. The Labour Party has been going backwards here since 2011; I don't see that changing in 2015.
It makes politicians look childish.
And the net result is surely to make the job of a leading politician even more unattractive to any person of talent and ability.
"Labour would outlaw Islamophobia, says Miliband in an exclusive interview"
http://www.muslimnews.co.uk/newspaper/top-stories/labour-to-outlaw-islamophobia-says-miliband-in-an-exclusive-interview/
*Innocent Face*
Doh! It was on the page I was on: it is more than 10,000 http://www.anglia.ac.uk/student-life/life-on-campus/cambridge-campus/welcome-to-our-cambridge-campus
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2015-england-32277813
The Green candidate seems to be baffled that Nick Palmer is even standing as a Labour candidate.
David Kirwan, Green candidate, said:
"It's the latest in a string of Labour policies that Nick is opposed to. He is not standing as an independent MP he is standing as a Labour MP."
On a more serious note, one of the barbs with which the Tower Hamlets types tried to prevent justice prevailing was to play the race card and cry Islamophobia at every turn. How would this law affect such a situation there, or in Bradford, or elsewhere?
And would it have outlawed the Charlie Hebdo edition after the massacre?
Funny article from the Independent:
http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/comment/general-election-2015-an-snp-takeover-whatever-happened-to-democracy-10196366.html
My favourite quote from it is:
" the Democratic Unionist Party is likely to have eight MPs, who may be crucial in forming a government. Among their reasonable and measured policies is that homosexuality is a sin, and one of their councillors claimed hurricanes are God’s revenge for the “filthy practice of sodomy”.
The others spotted on twitter
Khan was in Battarsea this morning and in his constituency this afternoon
Umunna: same as above
Reeves: her constituency in the morning, Bradford East and West in the afternoon
Balls: his constituency and Rother Valley
Owen Smith: Vale of Glamorgan (many Welsh MPs and AMs were there today)
Dugher: his constituency
A Eagle: her constituency
Ashworth: Stevenage
Powell: Pendle
Byrne: Dudley South, Wolverhampton SW and Halesowen
Flint: her constituency
McNicol (General Secretary): Scotland
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kw_Lf-JhdSU
Miliband is certainly not in a good place in general terms, but compared to where he was a while ago, where he was so toxically unpopular that Labour looked set to slide to below Michael Foot levels, it's pretty surprising.
Communist Gain ??
Interestingly, I see Islamophobia auto-corrects to homophobia with spellcheck
Let me illustrate the point by looking at projected LD seat numbers.Using the latest Opinium poll (Con 34,Lab 33,Lib ,Ukip13) and the latest You Gov poll for Scotland ,the Lib Dems get 18 seats on UNS.This compares to Sporting Index mid point of 24 and numbers between 20 and 29 from other forecasts.
The 18 seats won on UNS are Orkney,Ceredigion,Sheffield Hallam,Bath,Westmorland, Norfolk N,Yeovil,Leeds NW,Bristol W,Twickenham,Bermondsey,Lewes,Hazel Grove,Colchester,Thornbury,Southport ,Kingston and Portsmouth S.
If you were going to take account of LD MP,s standing down and University seats using an additional 5% swing between LD's and closest challenger then from the above list the LD,s would also lose Leeds NW and Bristol West from student backlash and Hazel Grove and and Portsmouth from MP,s standing down or in the case of Portsmouth S standing as an independent.
So far I have ignored the upside from the LD fortress strategy.Ashcroft is a methodology that has not yet been tested in the real word and shows mixed results in LD seats. We don't know what the LD,s own polling which mentions the candidate name is showing.Lets just take the extra seats that this might generate v UNS as six from the Sporting Index.So six extra but four wiped out.Still pretty close to UNS. Obviously the Lib Dems could add a bit to their poll ratings but he key figure to look at is the swing from LIb Dem to Con as they are the main opposition in the largest number of current LD seats.
What's interesting is that two are phone pollsters and one is an internet pollster....
Mr. kle4, indeed, Miliband is a damned fool.