Isn't this a leading question and wouldn't you expect an organization with the integrity of Survation to ask the Mail to try again?
"The SNP are a party committed to Scottish independence and the break-up of the UK. They cannot be trusted to act in the best interests of the UK if they were part of the UK government"
Updated SPUD The best way of telling the way the political wind is blowing
3 polls today and the Conservatives equal their best score since the SPUDs were planted on Monday 16 polls in all this week and 11 different pollsters
(I have compared tonights YG w last Saturday's for the Times and tonight's Survation with their last for the MoS, not the one from earlier in the week)
You do understand that your Comfort Interpreting, right ?
I'm doing no such thing actually
I can't help who is improving and who is regressing
Let's have a bet on your prediction of Ukip 7%
I will actually give you 1% start as a nous handicap
I'll buy a grand at 8%
Deal?
When the two polls you decide will not be compared to the previous poll by the organisation but by a random choice of previous polls purely to give your desired outcome more credibility, it is Comfort Interpretation. Failure to divide your integers by the number of polls involved also makes your number meaningless. You have turned Comfort Interpretation up to 11.
I have money on my expected outcomes and at better odds than you are offering already. Any additional stakes I have available will be going on Orkney and Zetland and a few other bets unrelated to UKIPs failure.
I don't have a desired outcome I am interested it the numbers
I have compared each poll to the previous one by that pollster for that organisation. If I hadn't done so for the survation tonight, I thought the conservatives on here would complain that I was skewing the numbers to look bad for them
I am a Ukip supporter, it was either no change or +1... Subtract 1 if you don't like the truth
All honest and above board, I provide the amount if polls and pollsters used so people can interpret as they please, and you are free to divide them as you wish
Ah bottling the bet , all moooth and nay trooisers
Fair enough I don't blame you youdve lost a fortune x
YouGov: when we ask people who they would support if Boris Johnson led the party, he converts a two-point deficit into a three-point lead.
Love it. It is truly wonderful that 10 years ago people used to laugh at the idea Boris could ever be taken seriously as a politician - even if plenty will say he still has no real chance of being LOTO or PM, the prospect is seriously considered by serious people, and I find that hilarious.
Isn't this a leading question and wouldn't you expect an organization with the integrity of Survation to ask the Mail to try again?
"The SNP are a party committed to Scottish independence and the break-up of the UK. They cannot be trusted to act in the best interests of the UK if they were part of the UK government"
Excellent point EXCEPT it was Opinium asking for the OBSERVER.
Isn't this a leading question and wouldn't you expect an organization with the integrity of Survation to ask the Mail to try again?
"The SNP are a party committed to Scottish independence and the break-up of the UK. They cannot be trusted to act in the best interests of the UK if they were part of the UK government"
Survation "Would you consider voting Conservative to stop the possibility of a Labour/SNP coalition government? Base: All VI that isn't Conservative or SNP"
Updated SPUD The best way of telling the way the political wind is blowing
3 polls today and the Conservatives equal their best score since the SPUDs were planted on Monday 16 polls in all this week and 11 different pollsters
(I have compared tonights YG w last Saturday's for the Times and tonight's Survation with their last for the MoS, not the one from earlier in the week)
Can you clarify how you get your figures? Is it purely adding up the poll changes per party? So one poll showing +2 and one showing +3 would give you a figure of +5???
Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB 2m2 minutes ago So the big polling picture is that it's all very close and forecasting what's going to happen is only for the brave
Scotland the brave?
I'd say playing the SPIN for the Con-Lab seat gap is very very "brave" indeed.
Brave, but potentially very profitable.
I think Mike is on the right side of the bet, I'm just not sure he picked the right moment to put his bet on.
Personally, if I was going to bet on this (I'm not), I'd wait until the very last minute - as close to the exit poll as possible - before betting against the tories.
Rent controls MAY work long term, but millions of people rent for an enormous range of reasons.
I have rented for the past 5 years and I am quite settled with a decent Landlord who is happy with me and Vice versa. But I would NEVER sign a 3 year deal
The tenants that I deal with at work (approximately 200 properties) fall roughly into the following categories.
New relationship-not sure how it will work out -sign for 6 months and see how it goes 15%
Broke up with someone -not sure how things will work out -sign for 6 months and see how it goes 15%
Young (under 30) couple saving for mortgage - sign for a year at a time 20%
Couple /kids / cant afford to buy so no choice but to rent-but aspire to something better /not sure what my job will be in a years time- so will only sign year to year- 25%
Retired or nearly retired-want to free up some cash and live life 15%
Single/couple want long term deal/will never move so 3 year + is a good idea 10%
I always offer our tenants the option of a longer deal-I have had 4 (FOUR) so far this year who have taken up the chance of a 2 year deal.
This is an issue that the property owning classes think is a great idea, but the renting classes might think is less than optimal idea.
For 2010 Lab to be 19% of UKIP votes, UKIP would have to be taking 7% (rather than 3%) of 2010 Lab voters.
The consequence would be: Con 284 seats, Lab 259 seats - which is quite a difference.
It is Survation and there is large MOE on subsamples - so I'm not changing my predictions of baiscally equal seats of 272, - but I'll definitely keep an eye on this.
The England effect will be bigger too, UKIP aren't eating into any of SLAB's 2010 voters. Are you treating 2010 ELAB and 2010 SLAB differently in your model. If this is right, Labour sub 250 for sure.
Do we have the tory ones? The total UKIP vote isn't increasing (apparantly) - so if Red Kippers are now 19.3% it must surely mean that Tory Kippers are much less than what they were.
I said down thread that I am sure it will be popular. Doesn't mean it is a good policy.
Which is the problem. Ed has said a lot of popular but stupid things over the last couple of years. He can't seriously follow through on this nonsense can he?
Survation "Would you consider voting Conservative to stop the possibility of a Labour/SNP coalition government? Base: All VI that isn't Conservative or SNP"
Yes Labour 6% LD 43% UKIP 37%
p.57
There is one big problem with that. There isn't a "Voting Conservative to stop the possibility of a Labour/SNP coalition" Party to vote for and seeing as the election is so unpredictable, that statement is just another reason for people who will vote aganst Labour, to vote against Labour.
I said down thread that I am sure it will be popular. Doesn't mean it is a good policy.
Which is the problem. Ed has said a lot of popular but stupid things over the last couple of years. He can't seriously follow through on this nonsense can he?
The problem is unlike Eddie Spheroids, he believes a lot of this crap.
Remember a couple of year ago his summer reading list involved a book about inequality (not the Piketty book), that was totally debunked as the acadamics behind it had mysteriously ignored all the counter examples in their data...
What did he do, he came back and started giving speeches that were basically straight out of the book. I think somebody finally told him that the book had been totally debunked and that probably best to shut up about it.
It is like somebody watching the Wire and deciding to start making radical new drugs policy based solely upon it.
Just saw Joe Root was made MOTM. Brilliant hundred but how often does 1 player win a match in the way Jimmy did today? Involved in the first 6 wickets today.
I know it's a batsman's game but that is ridiculous.
I said down thread that I am sure it will be popular. Doesn't mean it is a good policy.
Which is the problem. Ed has said a lot of popular but stupid things over the last couple of years. He can't seriously follow through on this nonsense can he?
If the Tories can throw away tens of millions on selling houses that are not even owned by the government simply to buy votes, then Ed has every right to screw landlords [ who vote Tory - apart from me ] and help tenants. In any case, none of you have read the details.
For 2010 Lab to be 19% of UKIP votes, UKIP would have to be taking 7% (rather than 3%) of 2010 Lab voters.
The consequence would be: Con 284 seats, Lab 259 seats - which is quite a difference.
It is Survation and there is large MOE on subsamples - so I'm not changing my predictions of baiscally equal seats of 272, - but I'll definitely keep an eye on this.
The England effect will be bigger too, UKIP aren't eating into any of SLAB's 2010 voters. Are you treating 2010 ELAB and 2010 SLAB differently in your model. If this is right, Labour sub 250 for sure.
I have different models for Scotland and E&W. My calculations are just for E&W. 19% for UK is about 20% for E&W. If I assume UKIP are taking 9% rather than 7% from 2010 Lab voters, it reduces the Lab seats to 255.
Just saw Joe Root was made MOTM. Brilliant hundred but how often does 1 player win a match in the way Jimmy did today? Involved in the first 6 wickets today.
I know it's a batsman's game but that is ridiculous.
It was punishment for Jimmy for running like a muppet and getting run out, and depriving Joe Root of at least a double hundred and possibly a triple hundred.
I said down thread that I am sure it will be popular. Doesn't mean it is a good policy.
Which is the problem. Ed has said a lot of popular but stupid things over the last couple of years. He can't seriously follow through on this nonsense can he?
If the Tories can throw away tens of millions on selling houses that are not even owned by the government simply to buy votes, then Ed has every right to screw landlords [ who vote Tory - apart from me ] and help tenants. In any case, none of you have read the details.
Don't you come on here and bamboozle the PB Hodges with facts. That's a banning offence if I have ever seen it. OGH, sort this out!
Rent controls MAY work long term, but millions of people rent for an enormous range of reasons.
I have rented for the past 5 years and I am quite settled with a decent Landlord who is happy with me and Vice versa. But I would NEVER sign a 3 year deal
The tenants that I deal with at work (approximately 200 properties) fall roughly into the following categories.
New relationship-not sure how it will work out -sign for 6 months and see how it goes 15%
Broke up with someone -not sure how things will work out -sign for 6 months and see how it goes 15%
Young (under 30) couple saving for mortgage - sign for a year at a time 20%
Couple /kids / cant afford to buy so no choice but to rent-but aspire to something better /not sure what my job will be in a years time- so will only sign year to year- 25%
Retired or nearly retired-want to free up some cash and live life 15%
Single/couple want long term deal/will never move so 3 year + is a good idea 10%
I always offer our tenants the option of a longer deal-I have had 4 (FOUR) so far this year who have taken up the chance of a 2 year deal.
This is an issue that the property owning classes think is a great idea, but the renting classes might think is less than optimal idea.
When tenants start getting sued for 18 months rent after they have moved out I am sure they will all be singing Ed's praises. Or not.
For 2010 Lab to be 19% of UKIP votes, UKIP would have to be taking 7% (rather than 3%) of 2010 Lab voters.
The consequence would be: Con 284 seats, Lab 259 seats - which is quite a difference.
It is Survation and there is large MOE on subsamples - so I'm not changing my predictions of baiscally equal seats of 272, - but I'll definitely keep an eye on this.
Survation say UKIP's vote is: Con 36% Lab 19% LD 22% UKIP 16% BNP 3%
Is that it for tonights polls?: Clear as mud again.
Tomorrow the Labour Lead ELBOW graph will have THREE lines plotted - the standard "official" ELBOW aggregating all polls this week, a YouGov-only ELBOW and a non-YouGov-only one.
Is that it for tonights polls?: Clear as mud again.
Tomorrow the Labour Lead ELBOW graph will have THREE lines plotted - the standard "official" ELBOW aggregating all polls this week, a YouGov only ELBOW and a non-YouGov only one.
Tim Shipman @ShippersUnbound 44m44 minutes ago Tory donor Hugh Osmond on leadership: "I don’t really know what they believe. They are masters of expediency rather than genuine belief.”
Tim Shipman @ShippersUnbound 50m50 minutes ago Tory donor P. Hall "I see no powerful vision of the future provided by D.Cameron. There's no clear considered view of where we are headed”
Tim Shipman @ShippersUnbound 17m17 minutes ago Fmr Tory minister: "The saying goes that you campaign in poetry and govern in prose but we are campaigning in semi-literate prose.”
Just saw Joe Root was made MOTM. Brilliant hundred but how often does 1 player win a match in the way Jimmy did today? Involved in the first 6 wickets today.
I know it's a batsman's game but that is ridiculous.
It was punishment for Jimmy for running like a muppet and getting run out, and depriving Joe Root of at least a double hundred and possibly a triple hundred.
I said down thread that I am sure it will be popular. Doesn't mean it is a good policy.
Which is the problem. Ed has said a lot of popular but stupid things over the last couple of years. He can't seriously follow through on this nonsense can he?
If the Tories can throw away tens of millions on selling houses that are not even owned by the government simply to buy votes, then Ed has every right to screw landlords [ who vote Tory - apart from me ] and help tenants. In any case, none of you have read the details.
Don't you come on here and bamboozle the PB Hodges with facts. That's a banning offence if I have ever seen it. OGH, sort this out!
The details barely matter. Either the policy fails to achieve its aims, and it's expensive bureaucracy; or it succeeds, it creates a disastrous distortion in the market. For example, if there are permitted rises every three years, then that caps the distortion but it caps the perceived "benefit", so it balances out.
Rob Ford (Britain) @robfordmancs · Almost all the Con held Lab targets in Ldn saw private renting rise 10 pts or more 01-11. Whatever economic merits, Lab policy will appeal
Agree,good policy for labour ,may even put them back on the front foot.
The tories need to come out hard on the idea like last time labour announced the policy.
For 2010 Lab to be 19% of UKIP votes, UKIP would have to be taking 7% (rather than 3%) of 2010 Lab voters.
The consequence would be: Con 284 seats, Lab 259 seats - which is quite a difference.
It is Survation and there is large MOE on subsamples - so I'm not changing my predictions of baiscally equal seats of 272, - but I'll definitely keep an eye on this.
Survation say UKIP's vote is: Con 36% Lab 19% LD 22% UKIP 16% BNP 3%
I said down thread that I am sure it will be popular. Doesn't mean it is a good policy.
Which is the problem. Ed has said a lot of popular but stupid things over the last couple of years. He can't seriously follow through on this nonsense can he?
The problem is unlike Eddie Spheroids, he believes a lot of this crap.
I really dislike Ed Balls, but even I've noticed his somewhat half-hearted defence of some of Ed's ideas. Balls is certainly less of an idealist, and more inclined to focus on broader macroeconomic issues, I wonder if he will last in the job of Chancellor or get the boot for someone more inclined to meddle the way Ed wants?
Tim Shipman @ShippersUnbound 44m44 minutes ago Tory donor Hugh Osmond on leadership: "I don’t really know what they believe. They are masters of expediency rather than genuine belief.”
Tim Shipman @ShippersUnbound 50m50 minutes ago Tory donor P. Hall "I see no powerful vision of the future provided by D.Cameron. There's no clear considered view of where we are headed”
Tim Shipman @ShippersUnbound 17m17 minutes ago Fmr Tory minister: "The saying goes that you campaign in poetry and govern in prose but we are campaigning in semi-literate prose.”
Just saw Joe Root was made MOTM. Brilliant hundred but how often does 1 player win a match in the way Jimmy did today? Involved in the first 6 wickets today.
I know it's a batsman's game but that is ridiculous.
It was punishment for Jimmy for running like a muppet and getting run out, and depriving Joe Root of at least a double hundred and possibly a triple hundred.
@robfordmancs: Seats w/largest rise in renting privately incl:Glasgw Ctl (Lab/SNP), Cardiff Ctl (Lab/LD), Bermondsey Old Swrk (Lab/LD).1 Con seat in top 50
Just saw Joe Root was made MOTM. Brilliant hundred but how often does 1 player win a match in the way Jimmy did today? Involved in the first 6 wickets today.
I know it's a batsman's game but that is ridiculous.
It was punishment for Jimmy for running like a muppet and getting run out, and depriving Joe Root of at least a double hundred and possibly a triple hundred.
Rob Ford (Britain) @robfordmancs · Almost all the Con held Lab targets in Ldn saw private renting rise 10 pts or more 01-11. Whatever economic merits, Lab policy will appeal
Agree,good policy for labour ,may even put them back on the front foot.
The tories need to come out hard on the idea like last time labour announced the policy.
I said down thread that I am sure it will be popular. Doesn't mean it is a good policy.
Which is the problem. Ed has said a lot of popular but stupid things over the last couple of years. He can't seriously follow through on this nonsense can he?
If the Tories can throw away tens of millions on selling houses that are not even owned by the government simply to buy votes, then Ed has every right to screw landlords [ who vote Tory - apart from me ] and help tenants. In any case, none of you have read the details.
I don't agree with that Tory policy. It is an Ed-like policy, popular but stupid.
Survation "Would you consider voting Conservative to stop the possibility of a Labour/SNP coalition government? Base: All VI that isn't Conservative or SNP"
Yes Labour 6% LD 43% UKIP 37%
p.57
There is one big problem with that. There isn't a "Voting Conservative to stop the possibility of a Labour/SNP coalition" Party to vote for and seeing as the election is so unpredictable, that statement is just another reason for people who will vote aganst Labour, to vote against Labour.
It appears to weaken Labour/LD/ and UKIP VI. That's good for the Conservatives.
Updated SPUD The best way of telling the way the political wind is blowing
3 polls today and the Conservatives equal their best score since the SPUDs were planted on Monday 16 polls in all this week and 11 different pollsters
(I have compared tonights YG w last Saturday's for the Times and tonight's Survation with their last for the MoS, not the one from earlier in the week)
Can you clarify how you get your figures? Is it purely adding up the poll changes per party? So one poll showing +2 and one showing +3 would give you a figure of +5???
Exactly that
I hope those extra question marks aren't implying disgust?!
For 2010 Lab to be 19% of UKIP votes, UKIP would have to be taking 7% (rather than 3%) of 2010 Lab voters.
The consequence would be: Con 284 seats, Lab 259 seats - which is quite a difference.
It is Survation and there is large MOE on subsamples - so I'm not changing my predictions of baiscally equal seats of 272, - but I'll definitely keep an eye on this.
Survation say UKIP's vote is: Con 36% Lab 19% LD 22% UKIP 16% BNP 3%
p.15
BNP 3% ?!
That is ludicrously low.
I guess that stat relies on people *admitting* they previously voted BNP.
Just saw Joe Root was made MOTM. Brilliant hundred but how often does 1 player win a match in the way Jimmy did today? Involved in the first 6 wickets today.
I know it's a batsman's game but that is ridiculous.
Agreed!
IF Jimmy is back to his best and he isn't over bowled in the early summer he will give the Aussies a serious going over.
If Cook has found his form and we can find someone to open with him we could seriously give the Aussies a fight.
Personally i would sack Moores and get Vaughan in and pick Rashid.
Rent controls MAY work long term, but millions of people rent for an enormous range of reasons.
I have rented for the past 5 years and I am quite settled with a decent Landlord who is happy with me and Vice versa. But I would NEVER sign a 3 year deal
The tenants that I deal with at work (approximately 200 properties) fall roughly into the following categories.
New relationship-not sure how it will work out -sign for 6 months and see how it goes 15%
Broke up with someone -not sure how things will work out -sign for 6 months and see how it goes 15%
Young (under 30) couple saving for mortgage - sign for a year at a time 20%
Couple /kids / cant afford to buy so no choice but to rent-but aspire to something better /not sure what my job will be in a years time- so will only sign year to year- 25%
Retired or nearly retired-want to free up some cash and live life 15%
Single/couple want long term deal/will never move so 3 year + is a good idea 10%
I always offer our tenants the option of a longer deal-I have had 4 (FOUR) so far this year who have taken up the chance of a 2 year deal.
This is an issue that the property owning classes think is a great idea, but the renting classes might think is less than optimal idea.
When tenants start getting sued for 18 months rent after they have moved out I am sure they will all be singing Ed's praises. Or not.
Except it's not 3 years on both sides is it? 3 years for tenant, but landlord only guaranteed 6 month rental.
I said down thread that I am sure it will be popular. Doesn't mean it is a good policy.
Which is the problem. Ed has said a lot of popular but stupid things over the last couple of years. He can't seriously follow through on this nonsense can he?
The problem is unlike Eddie Spheroids, he believes a lot of this crap.
I really dislike Ed Balls, but even I've noticed his somewhat half-hearted defence of some of Ed's ideas. Balls is certainly less of an idealist, and more inclined to focus on broader macroeconomic issues, I wonder if he will last in the job of Chancellor or get the boot for someone more inclined to meddle the way Ed wants?
Remember, Ed had Alan Johnson as his first choice and a nice bloke that he is, he doesn't know his CDS from his HFTs.
Balls, is a thoroughly dislikeable individual, Mr McBride and all that, but one thing is clear he does know his economics. I wouldn't be surprised if Balls get the heave ho, as I can see him not wanting to do a lot of the stupid things Miliband wants to do. Remember how he sabotaged Blair bid of entering the Euro with his key tests that he knew could never be met, but Blair didn't know enough about economics to realise this until it was too late.
I said down thread that I am sure it will be popular. Doesn't mean it is a good policy.
Which is the problem. Ed has said a lot of popular but stupid things over the last couple of years. He can't seriously follow through on this nonsense can he?
The problem is unlike Eddie Spheroids, he believes a lot of this crap.
I really dislike Ed Balls, but even I've noticed his somewhat half-hearted defence of some of Ed's ideas. Balls is certainly less of an idealist, and more inclined to focus on broader macroeconomic issues, I wonder if he will last in the job of Chancellor or get the boot for someone more inclined to meddle the way Ed wants?
Can we hold on to those horses. EIC and will never be PM, so he will never be in the position to be COE, where have you been for the last five years. Get a grip!
Tim Shipman @ShippersUnbound 44m44 minutes ago Tory donor Hugh Osmond on leadership: "I don’t really know what they believe. They are masters of expediency rather than genuine belief.”
Tim Shipman @ShippersUnbound 50m50 minutes ago Tory donor P. Hall "I see no powerful vision of the future provided by D.Cameron. There's no clear considered view of where we are headed”
Tim Shipman @ShippersUnbound 17m17 minutes ago Fmr Tory minister: "The saying goes that you campaign in poetry and govern in prose but we are campaigning in semi-literate prose.”
Give us a chance I am reloading the rockets.
BLUEONBLUE INCOMING BLUNDERBUSS!!!!!
If that's the Blue-on-Blue it's just fluff. Nothing cuthroat at all.
Tim Shipman @ShippersUnbound 44m44 minutes ago Tory donor Hugh Osmond on leadership: "I don’t really know what they believe. They are masters of expediency rather than genuine belief.”
Tim Shipman @ShippersUnbound 50m50 minutes ago Tory donor P. Hall "I see no powerful vision of the future provided by D.Cameron. There's no clear considered view of where we are headed”
Tim Shipman @ShippersUnbound 17m17 minutes ago Fmr Tory minister: "The saying goes that you campaign in poetry and govern in prose but we are campaigning in semi-literate prose.”
Give us a chance I am reloading the rockets.
BLUEONBLUE INCOMING BLUNDERBUSS!!!!!
If that's the Blue-on-Blue it's just fluff. Nothing cuthroat at all.
I'm confidently predicting Nicola Sturgeon will still be the leader of the SNP a week from polling day.
Past that, Farage looks reasonably safe to me.
The other three could be in deep shit.
If Farage wins he should be safe, though perhaps having achieved a personal triumph along with what should be a very good result for the party (never mind some thought they could do even better, they are set for a great night regardless), and having done so much to get the party to where it is, perhaps he will call time on his leadership once more.
Clegg is a goner; he's been a political zombie for years, and the only question is if he loses his seat or not, and how quickly he is ousted if he does - given it seems the LDs will not have the seats to make a Tory coalition viable, thus even if the party is inclined to do they cannot, I should think they will oust him very quickly, as they won't need to have a leadership figure in place for negotiations.
Ed M will be fine so long as he wins, as he should. They won't get rid of him if he can form some sort of government.
And so conversely, Cameron is a goner. Just a question of whether the negotiations for the others are sorted out by a week from polling day.
Tim Shipman @ShippersUnbound 38m38 minutes ago Several ministers have been sounding out colleagues about leadership bids this week. See Sunday Times.
Are we getting to the point where Cameron not being 'just as likely' to be PM as Ed, but rather, as I have irritatingly and incessantly said, 'less likely' to be PM, might just seep through to the public at large? I remained stunned at the number of Labour people who do not seem even hopeful.
Just saw Joe Root was made MOTM. Brilliant hundred but how often does 1 player win a match in the way Jimmy did today? Involved in the first 6 wickets today.
I know it's a batsman's game but that is ridiculous.
It was punishment for Jimmy for running like a muppet and getting run out, and depriving Joe Root of at least a double hundred and possibly a triple hundred.
Some PB Labour supporters seem almost complacently confident today which is a bit surprising given that today's polls including the Ashcroft marginals polls seem ok for the Tories. Survation has a 3 point Tory lead plus a big Kipper vote share which on the day could translate into a healthy Tory lead, especially if the undecided break blue and the can't be arseds can't be arsed. April pay packets will cause many undecided to muse too.
Are PB lefties genuinely confident or is it just bravado?
Updated SPUD The best way of telling the way the political wind is blowing
3 polls today and the Conservatives equal their best score since the SPUDs were planted on Monday 16 polls in all this week and 11 different pollsters
(I have compared tonights YG w last Saturday's for the Times and tonight's Survation with their last for the MoS, not the one from earlier in the week)
Can you clarify how you get your figures? Is it purely adding up the poll changes per party? So one poll showing +2 and one showing +3 would give you a figure of +5???
Exactly that
I hope those extra question marks aren't implying disgust?!
Not disgust, I just wonder how useful a metric it is to pause halfway through an average calculation. In the example I suggested, neither poll suggested a strong movement, but your method implies the opposite.
Just saw Joe Root was made MOTM. Brilliant hundred but how often does 1 player win a match in the way Jimmy did today? Involved in the first 6 wickets today.
I know it's a batsman's game but that is ridiculous.
It was punishment for Jimmy for running like a muppet and getting run out, and depriving Joe Root of at least a double hundred and possibly a triple hundred.
You are a hard man TSE.
Three run outs in a single test innings is incredibly amateurish.
They need to recall Eoin Morgan - he'll get out properly, bowled or caught within 6 balls - a professional end to an innings.
Tim Shipman @ShippersUnbound 44m44 minutes ago Tory donor Hugh Osmond on leadership: "I don’t really know what they believe. They are masters of expediency rather than genuine belief.”
Tim Shipman @ShippersUnbound 50m50 minutes ago Tory donor P. Hall "I see no powerful vision of the future provided by D.Cameron. There's no clear considered view of where we are headed”
Tim Shipman @ShippersUnbound 17m17 minutes ago Fmr Tory minister: "The saying goes that you campaign in poetry and govern in prose but we are campaigning in semi-literate prose.”
Give us a chance I am reloading the rockets.
BLUEONBLUE INCOMING BLUNDERBUSS!!!!!
If that's the Blue-on-Blue it's just fluff. Nothing cuthroat at all.
Campbell spinning up stories again. A stain on politics.
Just saw Joe Root was made MOTM. Brilliant hundred but how often does 1 player win a match in the way Jimmy did today? Involved in the first 6 wickets today.
I know it's a batsman's game but that is ridiculous.
It was punishment for Jimmy for running like a muppet and getting run out, and depriving Joe Root of at least a double hundred and possibly a triple hundred.
Since the Opposition Day Debates on the 16th April there have been 20 polls, 10 with labour lead, 9 with conservative lead, and one tied. Labour totalled 20 points and the conservatives 24 points. See Wikipedia polling
Just saw Joe Root was made MOTM. Brilliant hundred but how often does 1 player win a match in the way Jimmy did today? Involved in the first 6 wickets today.
I know it's a batsman's game but that is ridiculous.
Agreed!
IF Jimmy is back to his best and he isn't over bowled in the early summer he will give the Aussies a serious going over.
If Cook has found his form and we can find someone to open with him we could seriously give the Aussies a fight.
Personally i would sack Moores and get Vaughan in and pick Rashid.
I agree that all of those are necessary if not quite sufficient steps in giving the Aussies a game. We also need Broad to be consistently bowling over 85 mph, Ali to learn how to cope with fast bowling and probably Johnston to be injured.
Just saw Joe Root was made MOTM. Brilliant hundred but how often does 1 player win a match in the way Jimmy did today? Involved in the first 6 wickets today.
I know it's a batsman's game but that is ridiculous.
It was punishment for Jimmy for running like a muppet and getting run out, and depriving Joe Root of at least a double hundred and possibly a triple hundred.
You are a hard man TSE.
I'm a Yorkshireman, from Sheffield.
Joe Root is also from Sheffield.
Jimmy Anderson is a Lancastrian.
Just saying.
So you're all Northerners then, each of you cut from the same cloth.
Balls, is a thoroughly dislikeable individual, Mr McBride and all that, but one thing is clear he does know his economics. I wouldn't be surprised if Balls get the heave ho, as I can see him not wanting to do a lot of the stupid things Miliband wants to do. Remember how he sabotaged Blair bid of entering the Euro with his key tests that he knew could never be met, but Blair didn't know enough about economics to realise this until it was too late.
Yeah I wonder how much Balls is looking at the situation in terms of his own future, rather than the effectiveness or frankly even the deliverability of some of Ed's brainwaves. Balls must fancy his chances as Ed's successor, if things go pear-shape we could see a quick falling out.
For 2010 Lab to be 19% of UKIP votes, UKIP would have to be taking 7% (rather than 3%) of 2010 Lab voters.
The consequence would be: Con 284 seats, Lab 259 seats - which is quite a difference.
It is Survation and there is large MOE on subsamples - so I'm not changing my predictions of baiscally equal seats of 272, - but I'll definitely keep an eye on this.
Survation say UKIP's vote is: Con 36% Lab 19% LD 22% UKIP 16% BNP 3%
p.15
565,000 people voted BNP in 2010. About 3,700,000 are in the UKIP camp at the moment.
Your Survation statistics encourage me to ignore them.
Some PB Labour supporters seem almost complacently confident today which is a bit surprising given that today's polls including the Ashcroft marginals polls seem ok for the Tories. Survation has a 3 point Tory lead plus a big Kipper vote share which on the day could translate into a healthy Tory lead, especially if the undecided break blue and the can't be arseds can't be arsed. April pay packets will cause many undecided to muse too.
Are PB lefties genuinely confident or is it just bravado?
I came here for the politics; I stay for the cricket.
Love you guys.
I was hoping England and Wales would win all the tests and see the papers go into hyperbole about the "resurgence of English cricket" while failing to note just how bad the West Indies are these days.
For 2010 Lab to be 19% of UKIP votes, UKIP would have to be taking 7% (rather than 3%) of 2010 Lab voters.
The consequence would be: Con 284 seats, Lab 259 seats - which is quite a difference.
It is Survation and there is large MOE on subsamples - so I'm not changing my predictions of baiscally equal seats of 272, - but I'll definitely keep an eye on this.
Survation say UKIP's vote is: Con 36% Lab 19% LD 22% UKIP 16% BNP 3%
p.15
565,000 people voted BNP in 2010. About 3,700,000 are in the UKIP camp at the moment.
Your Survation statistics encourage me to ignore them.
They seem to be down weighting BNP voters to 0.8% of 2010. Perhaps I'm misunderstanding the table?
Are PB lefties genuinely confident or is it just bravado?
Some PB lefties are really pessimistic in fact, just like some PB Tories. It's hard to detect if there's been a shift I think.
I'm slightly less pessimistic than usual after I spoke to my friend earlier who's been doing some doorknocking in Wirral West and Chester; she says people are now generally saying they're going to vote Labour with more enthusiasm than the weary grudging tone she's used to, and that opinions of Ed have come right up in the last couple of weeks.
I'm confidently predicting Nicola Sturgeon will still be the leader of the SNP a week from polling day.
Past that, Farage looks reasonably safe to me.
The other three could be in deep shit.
If Farage wins he should be safe, though perhaps having achieved a personal triumph along with what should be a very good result for the party (never mind some thought they could do even better, they are set for a great night regardless), and having done so much to get the party to where it is, perhaps he will call time on his leadership once more.
Clegg is a goner; he's been a political zombie for years, and the only question is if he loses his seat or not, and how quickly he is ousted if he does - given it seems the LDs will not have the seats to make a Tory coalition viable, thus even if the party is inclined to do they cannot, I should think they will oust him very quickly, as they won't need to have a leadership figure in place for negotiations.
Ed M will be fine so long as he wins, as he should. They won't get rid of him if he can form some sort of government.
And so conversely, Cameron is a goner. Just a question of whether the negotiations for the others are sorted out by a week from polling day.
Tim Shipman @ShippersUnbound 38m38 minutes ago Several ministers have been sounding out colleagues about leadership bids this week. See Sunday Times.
Are we getting to the point where Cameron not being 'just as likely' to be PM as Ed, but rather, as I have irritatingly and incessantly said, 'less likely' to be PM, might just seep through to the public at large? I remained stunned at the number of Labour people who do not seem even hopeful.
I was expecting the LDs to replace Mr Clegg after the May 2014 elections. I don't understand why they didn't.
I came here for the politics; I stay for the cricket.
Love you guys.
I was hoping England and Wales would win all the tests and see the papers go into hyperbole about the "resurgence of English cricket" while failing to note just how bad the West Indies are these days.
These days?!?
When have "facts" ever got in the way of a good headline?
Just saw Joe Root was made MOTM. Brilliant hundred but how often does 1 player win a match in the way Jimmy did today? Involved in the first 6 wickets today.
I know it's a batsman's game but that is ridiculous.
It was punishment for Jimmy for running like a muppet and getting run out, and depriving Joe Root of at least a double hundred and possibly a triple hundred.
You are a hard man TSE.
I'm a Yorkshireman, from Sheffield.
Joe Root is also from Sheffield.
Jimmy Anderson is a Lancastrian.
Just saying.
So you're all Northerners then, each of you cut from the same cloth.
And anyone who has watched GOT knows what happens to northerners.
Just saw Joe Root was made MOTM. Brilliant hundred but how often does 1 player win a match in the way Jimmy did today? Involved in the first 6 wickets today.
I know it's a batsman's game but that is ridiculous.
It was punishment for Jimmy for running like a muppet and getting run out, and depriving Joe Root of at least a double hundred and possibly a triple hundred.
You are a hard man TSE.
I'm a Yorkshireman, from Sheffield.
Joe Root is also from Sheffield.
Jimmy Anderson is a Lancastrian.
Just saying.
So you're all Northerners then, each of you cut from the same cloth.
And anyone who has watched GOT knows what happens to northerners.
I'm confidently predicting Nicola Sturgeon will still be the leader of the SNP a week from polling day.
Past that, Farage looks reasonably safe to me.
The other three could be in deep shit.
If Farage wins he should be safe, though perhaps having achieved a personal triumph along with what should be a very good result for the party (never mind some thought they could do even better, they are set for a great night regardless), and having done so much to get the party to where it is, perhaps he will call time on his leadership once more.
Clegg is a goner; he's been a political zombie for years, and the only question is if he loses his seat or not, and how quickly he is ousted if he does - given it seems the LDs will not have the seats to make a Tory coalition viable, thus even if the party is inclined to do they cannot, I should think they will oust him very quickly, as they won't need to have a leadership figure in place for negotiations.
Ed M will be fine so long as he wins, as he should. They won't get rid of him if he can form some sort of government.
And so conversely, Cameron is a goner. Just a question of whether the negotiations for the others are sorted out by a week from polling day.
Tim Shipman @ShippersUnbound 38m38 minutes ago Several ministers have been sounding out colleagues about leadership bids this week. See Sunday Times.
Are we getting to the point where Cameron not being 'just as likely' to be PM as Ed, but rather, as I have irritatingly and incessantly said, 'less likely' to be PM, might just seep through to the public at large? I remained stunned at the number of Labour people who do not seem even hopeful.
I was expecting the LDs to replace Mr Clegg after the May 2014 elections. I don't understand why they didn't.
You and me both. Sure it might not have worked, and I actually have quite a bit of respect for Clegg, but he is completely toxic and there was at least a chance a different leader could have led a small revival - instead the last year, the year of expected revival, was the worst since the first.
Updated SPUD The best way of telling the way the political wind is blowing
3 polls today and the Conservatives equal their best score since the SPUDs were planted on Monday 16 polls in all this week and 11 different pollsters
(I have compared tonights YG w last Saturday's for the Times and tonight's Survation with their last for the MoS, not the one from earlier in the week)
Can you clarify how you get your figures? Is it purely adding up the poll changes per party? So one poll showing +2 and one showing +3 would give you a figure of +5???
Exactly that
I hope those extra question marks aren't implying disgust?!
Not disgust, I just wonder how useful a metric it is to pause halfway through an average calculation. In the example I suggested, neither poll suggested a strong movement, but your method implies the opposite.
Not really because if you don't think +3 and +2 are strong movements I don't see how +5 after 2 polls would be either... It would be the same
I don't know what 'pause halfway through an average calculation ' relates to really if I'm honest
I'm confidently predicting Nicola Sturgeon will still be the leader of the SNP a week from polling day.
Past that, Farage looks reasonably safe to me.
The other three could be in deep shit.
If Farage wins he should be safe, though perhaps having achieved a personal triumph along with what should be a very good result for the party (never mind some thought they could do even better, they are set for a great night regardless), and having done so much to get the party to where it is, perhaps he will call time on his leadership once more.
Clegg is a goner; he's been a political zombie for years, and the only question is if he loses his seat or not, and how quickly he is ousted if he does - given it seems the LDs will not have the seats to make a Tory coalition viable, thus even if the party is inclined to do they cannot, I should think they will oust him very quickly, as they won't need to have a leadership figure in place for negotiations.
Ed M will be fine so long as he wins, as he should. They won't get rid of him if he can form some sort of government.
And so conversely, Cameron is a goner. Just a question of whether the negotiations for the others are sorted out by a week from polling day.
Tim Shipman @ShippersUnbound 38m38 minutes ago Several ministers have been sounding out colleagues about leadership bids this week. See Sunday Times.
Are we getting to the point where Cameron not being 'just as likely' to be PM as Ed, but rather, as I have irritatingly and incessantly said, 'less likely' to be PM, might just seep through to the public at large? I remained stunned at the number of Labour people who do not seem even hopeful.
I was expecting the LDs to replace Mr Clegg after the May 2014 elections. I don't understand why they didn't.
You and me both. Sure it might not have worked, and I actually have quite a bit of respect for Clegg, but he is completely toxic and there was at least a chance a different leader could have led a small revival - instead the last year, the year of expected revival, was the worst since the first.
At the very least Clegg should have stepped down in the autumn. And I am a Cleggitte. Sometimes you need to take one for the team.
Just saw Joe Root was made MOTM. Brilliant hundred but how often does 1 player win a match in the way Jimmy did today? Involved in the first 6 wickets today.
I know it's a batsman's game but that is ridiculous.
It was punishment for Jimmy for running like a muppet and getting run out, and depriving Joe Root of at least a double hundred and possibly a triple hundred.
You are a hard man TSE.
I'm a Yorkshireman, from Sheffield.
Joe Root is also from Sheffield.
Jimmy Anderson is a Lancastrian.
Just saying.
So you're all Northerners then, each of you cut from the same cloth.
And anyone who has watched GOT knows what happens to northerners.
I always offer our tenants the option of a longer deal-I have had 4 (FOUR) so far this year who have taken up the chance of a 2 year deal.
This is an issue that the property owning classes think is a great idea, but the renting classes might think is less than optimal idea.
Very interested in this - my (very few and 2nd-party) brushes with renting, the would-be tenants have only ever been offered 6-month agreements. I thought that was all that was available.
Just saw Joe Root was made MOTM. Brilliant hundred but how often does 1 player win a match in the way Jimmy did today? Involved in the first 6 wickets today.
I know it's a batsman's game but that is ridiculous.
It was punishment for Jimmy for running like a muppet and getting run out, and depriving Joe Root of at least a double hundred and possibly a triple hundred.
You are a hard man TSE.
I'm a Yorkshireman, from Sheffield.
Joe Root is also from Sheffield.
Jimmy Anderson is a Lancastrian.
Just saying.
So you're all Northerners then, each of you cut from the same cloth.
And anyone who has watched GOT knows what happens to northerners.
I agree that all of those are necessary if not quite sufficient steps in giving the Aussies a game. We also need Broad to be consistently bowling over 85 mph, Ali to learn how to cope with fast bowling and probably Johnston to be injured.
Pitches even more lifeless than in the last home Ashes series would probably help too.
Just saw Joe Root was made MOTM. Brilliant hundred but how often does 1 player win a match in the way Jimmy did today? Involved in the first 6 wickets today.
I know it's a batsman's game but that is ridiculous.
It was punishment for Jimmy for running like a muppet and getting run out, and depriving Joe Root of at least a double hundred and possibly a triple hundred.
You are a hard man TSE.
I'm a Yorkshireman, from Sheffield.
Joe Root is also from Sheffield.
Jimmy Anderson is a Lancastrian.
Just saying.
So you're all Northerners then, each of you cut from the same cloth.
And anyone who has watched GOT knows what happens to northerners.
Just saw Joe Root was made MOTM. Brilliant hundred but how often does 1 player win a match in the way Jimmy did today? Involved in the first 6 wickets today.
I know it's a batsman's game but that is ridiculous.
It was punishment for Jimmy for running like a muppet and getting run out, and depriving Joe Root of at least a double hundred and possibly a triple hundred.
You are a hard man TSE.
I'm a Yorkshireman, from Sheffield.
Joe Root is also from Sheffield.
Jimmy Anderson is a Lancastrian.
Just saying.
So you're all Northerners then, each of you cut from the same cloth.
And anyone who has watched GOT knows what happens to northerners.
Yesterday I came up with a theory about how GoT is going to end and it's moderately depressing and no matter how much more I think about it, I can't stop myself thinking that it is the only way the story can actually end.
Just saw Joe Root was made MOTM. Brilliant hundred but how often does 1 player win a match in the way Jimmy did today? Involved in the first 6 wickets today.
I know it's a batsman's game but that is ridiculous.
It was punishment for Jimmy for running like a muppet and getting run out, and depriving Joe Root of at least a double hundred and possibly a triple hundred.
You are a hard man TSE.
I'm a Yorkshireman, from Sheffield.
Joe Root is also from Sheffield.
Jimmy Anderson is a Lancastrian.
Just saying.
So you're all Northerners then, each of you cut from the same cloth.
And anyone who has watched GOT knows what happens to northerners.
Just saw Joe Root was made MOTM. Brilliant hundred but how often does 1 player win a match in the way Jimmy did today? Involved in the first 6 wickets today.
I know it's a batsman's game but that is ridiculous.
It was punishment for Jimmy for running like a muppet and getting run out, and depriving Joe Root of at least a double hundred and possibly a triple hundred.
You are a hard man TSE.
I'm a Yorkshireman, from Sheffield.
Joe Root is also from Sheffield.
Jimmy Anderson is a Lancastrian.
Just saying.
So you're all Northerners then, each of you cut from the same cloth.
And anyone who has watched GOT knows what happens to northerners.
Comments
"The SNP are a party committed to Scottish independence and the break-up of the UK. They cannot be trusted to act in the best interests of the UK if they were part of the UK government"
I have compared each poll to the previous one by that pollster for that organisation. If I hadn't done so for the survation tonight, I thought the conservatives on here would complain that I was skewing the numbers to look bad for them
I am a Ukip supporter, it was either no change or +1... Subtract 1 if you don't like the truth
All honest and above board, I provide the amount if polls and pollsters used so people can interpret as they please, and you are free to divide them as you wish
Ah bottling the bet , all moooth and nay trooisers
Fair enough I don't blame you youdve lost a fortune x
But apart from, excellent observation
"Would you consider voting Conservative to stop the possibility of a Labour/SNP coalition government? Base: All VI that isn't Conservative or SNP"
Yes
Labour 6%
LD 43%
UKIP 37%
p.57
I think Mike is on the right side of the bet, I'm just not sure he picked the right moment to put his bet on.
Personally, if I was going to bet on this (I'm not), I'd wait until the very last minute - as close to the exit poll as possible - before betting against the tories.
Rent controls MAY work long term, but millions of people rent for an enormous range of reasons.
I have rented for the past 5 years and I am quite settled with a decent Landlord who is happy with me and Vice versa. But I would NEVER sign a 3 year deal
The tenants that I deal with at work (approximately 200 properties) fall roughly into the following categories.
New relationship-not sure how it will work out -sign for 6 months and see how it goes 15%
Broke up with someone -not sure how things will work out -sign for 6 months and see how it goes 15%
Young (under 30) couple saving for mortgage - sign for a year at a time 20%
Couple /kids / cant afford to buy so no choice but to rent-but aspire to something better /not sure what my job will be in a years time- so will only sign year to year- 25%
Retired or nearly retired-want to free up some cash and live life 15%
Single/couple want long term deal/will never move so 3 year + is a good idea 10%
I always offer our tenants the option of a longer deal-I have had 4 (FOUR) so far this year who have taken up the chance of a 2 year deal.
This is an issue that the property owning classes think is a great idea, but the renting classes might think is less than optimal idea.
Remember a couple of year ago his summer reading list involved a book about inequality (not the Piketty book), that was totally debunked as the acadamics behind it had mysteriously ignored all the counter examples in their data...
What did he do, he came back and started giving speeches that were basically straight out of the book. I think somebody finally told him that the book had been totally debunked and that probably best to shut up about it.
It is like somebody watching the Wire and deciding to start making radical new drugs policy based solely upon it.
I know it's a batsman's game but that is ridiculous.
Several ministers have been sounding out colleagues about leadership bids this week. See Sunday Times.
Con 36%
Lab 19%
LD 22%
UKIP 16%
BNP 3%
p.15
Past that, Farage looks reasonably safe to me.
The other three could be in deep shit.
Tory donor Hugh Osmond on leadership: "I don’t really know what they believe. They are masters of expediency rather than genuine belief.”
Tim Shipman @ShippersUnbound 50m50 minutes ago
Tory donor P. Hall "I see no powerful vision of the future provided by D.Cameron. There's no clear considered view of where we are headed”
Tim Shipman @ShippersUnbound 17m17 minutes ago
Fmr Tory minister: "The saying goes that you campaign in poetry and govern in prose but we are campaigning in semi-literate prose.”
Almost all the Con held Lab targets in Ldn saw private renting rise 10 pts or more 01-11. Whatever economic merits, Lab policy will appeal
Agree,good policy for labour ,may even put them back on the front foot.
The tories need to come out hard on the idea like last time labour announced the policy.
That is ludicrously low.
BLUEONBLUE INCOMING BLUNDERBUSS!!!!!
Joe Root is also from Sheffield.
Jimmy Anderson is a Lancastrian.
Just saying.
Not a single Labour poster or sign up here, Owls. Lots of England flags for the St George tho !
I don't agree with that Tory policy. It is an Ed-like policy, popular but stupid.
I hope those extra question marks aren't implying disgust?!
IF Jimmy is back to his best and he isn't over bowled in the early summer he will give the Aussies a serious going over.
If Cook has found his form and we can find someone to open with him we could seriously give the Aussies a fight.
Personally i would sack Moores and get Vaughan in and pick Rashid.
Balls, is a thoroughly dislikeable individual, Mr McBride and all that, but one thing is clear he does know his economics. I wouldn't be surprised if Balls get the heave ho, as I can see him not wanting to do a lot of the stupid things Miliband wants to do. Remember how he sabotaged Blair bid of entering the Euro with his key tests that he knew could never be met, but Blair didn't know enough about economics to realise this until it was too late.
Clegg is a goner; he's been a political zombie for years, and the only question is if he loses his seat or not, and how quickly he is ousted if he does - given it seems the LDs will not have the seats to make a Tory coalition viable, thus even if the party is inclined to do they cannot, I should think they will oust him very quickly, as they won't need to have a leadership figure in place for negotiations.
Ed M will be fine so long as he wins, as he should. They won't get rid of him if he can form some sort of government.
And so conversely, Cameron is a goner. Just a question of whether the negotiations for the others are sorted out by a week from polling day. Are we getting to the point where Cameron not being 'just as likely' to be PM as Ed, but rather, as I have irritatingly and incessantly said, 'less likely' to be PM, might just seep through to the public at large? I remained stunned at the number of Labour people who do not seem even hopeful.
Jimmy is a Lancastrian
These things MATTER !!!!
Are PB lefties genuinely confident or is it just bravado?
Fewest innings to reach 1,000 England Test runs
12: Herbert Sutcliffe 16: Len Hutton 17: Gary Ballance 18: Wally Hammond
3 yorkshiremen in the top 3,just saying ;-)
Ballance up with the greats ;-)
In the example I suggested, neither poll suggested a strong movement, but your method implies the opposite.
They need to recall Eoin Morgan - he'll get out properly, bowled or caught within 6 balls - a professional end to an innings.
Lineker couldn't resist.
Your Survation statistics encourage me to ignore them.
Love you guys.
It's on p.15 of the PDF.
When have "facts" ever got in the way of a good headline?
What do you expect?
I don't know what 'pause halfway through an average calculation ' relates to really if I'm honest
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3GfoFvDeKLc
I knew someone else would notice
Less good for Neil Hay
http://t.co/cC6TtNv6QG
Just saying.