Some PB Labour supporters seem almost complacently confident today which is a bit surprising given that today's polls including the Ashcroft marginals polls seem ok for the Tories. Survation has a 3 point Tory lead plus a big Kipper vote share which on the day could translate into a healthy Tory lead, especially if the undecided break blue and the can't be arseds can't be arsed. April pay packets will cause many undecided to muse too.
Are PB lefties genuinely confident or is it just bravado?
Not particularly confident, but more so than a month ago. Miliband has had a good campaign and that does wonders for morale. The SNP stuff will evidently have cut through, even if it is ludicrous hyperbole and ignores the fact that Cameron will have his own chaos in coalition or with a tiny majority and the referendum, but in so much as it's working it's as a defensive measure against the fact that Ed has mitigated, if not entirely got rid of his image problem and has won on policies so far - the non-doms was the policy event of the campaign so far and the manifesto wasn't torn to shreds, there haven't been any Elvis mishaps or football forgetfulness. The spectre is the SNP - if it were still looking like its MPs could arrive in a taxi, Cameron would be absolute toast, as it is their success has not only ensured there's little chance of a Lab majority, but given him the attack line which may just swing it his way.
I think John Rentoul has it more or less right when he says that he thinks the probability of who is PM has mildly shifted in Ed's favour - putting it at about 60%, before the campaign he'd have made Cameron favourite. There's so many different strands of opinion and competing factors that could decide the election, that who knows - but being a smidgen ahead in the polls is a much better position than most people thought Labour would be now.
Oh, and why will April pay packets decide it? The Tories have already tried this with 'money back Monday', which came just after March pay packets arrived - nothing budged.
Just saw Joe Root was made MOTM. Brilliant hundred but how often does 1 player win a match in the way Jimmy did today? Involved in the first 6 wickets today.
I know it's a batsman's game but that is ridiculous.
It was punishment for Jimmy for running like a muppet and getting run out, and depriving Joe Root of at least a double hundred and possibly a triple hundred.
You are a hard man TSE.
I'm a Yorkshireman, from Sheffield.
Joe Root is also from Sheffield.
Jimmy Anderson is a Lancastrian.
Just saying.
So you're all Northerners then, each of you cut from the same cloth.
And anyone who has watched GOT knows what happens to northerners.
Yesterday I came up with a theory about how GoT is going to end and it's moderately depressing and no matter how much more I think about it, I can't stop myself thinking that it is the only way the story can actually end.
Pray tell. My theory is that Daenerys ends on the throne with the Tyron as her Hand and Bran involved somehow. But that is too obvious, so Daenerys is bound to die a horrible death.
I don't suppose you Labour folk ever considered getting yourselves an inspiring leader with an inspiring message to galvanise the nation as the SNP have been doing since 2007 - just a thought.
Just saw Joe Root was made MOTM. Brilliant hundred but how often does 1 player win a match in the way Jimmy did today? Involved in the first 6 wickets today.
I know it's a batsman's game but that is ridiculous.
It was punishment for Jimmy for running like a muppet and getting run out, and depriving Joe Root of at least a double hundred and possibly a triple hundred.
You are a hard man TSE.
I'm a Yorkshireman, from Sheffield.
Joe Root is also from Sheffield.
Jimmy Anderson is a Lancastrian.
Just saying.
So you're all Northerners then, each of you cut from the same cloth.
And anyone who has watched GOT knows what happens to northerners.
Yesterday I came up with a theory about how GoT is going to end and it's moderately depressing and no matter how much more I think about it, I can't stop myself thinking that it is the only way the story can actually end.
Surely Denerys Tararyen is going to arrive with her dragons who will blow the white walkers etc away with fire and she ends up appointing Tyrion as her hand since he is the only one smart enough to run it. And practically everyone else you have ever read about is dead, of course.
Just saw Joe Root was made MOTM. Brilliant hundred but how often does 1 player win a match in the way Jimmy did today? Involved in the first 6 wickets today.
I know it's a batsman's game but that is ridiculous.
It was punishment for Jimmy for running like a muppet and getting run out, and depriving Joe Root of at least a double hundred and possibly a triple hundred.
You are a hard man TSE.
I'm a Yorkshireman, from Sheffield.
Joe Root is also from Sheffield.
Jimmy Anderson is a Lancastrian.
Just saying.
So you're all Northerners then, each of you cut from the same cloth.
And anyone who has watched GOT knows what happens to northerners.
Yesterday I came up with a theory about how GoT is going to end and it's moderately depressing and no matter how much more I think about it, I can't stop myself thinking that it is the only way the story can actually end.
Surely Denerys Tararyen is going to arrive with her dragons who will blow the white walkers etc away with fire and she ends up appointing Tyrion as her hand since he is the only one smart enough to run it. And practically everyone else you have ever read about is dead, of course.
Game of thrones ends with L+R=J. Everyone knows this.
Updated SPUD The best way of telling the way the political wind is blowing
3 polls today and the Conservatives equal their best score since the SPUDs were planted on Monday 16 polls in all this week and 11 different pollsters
(I have compared tonights YG w last Saturday's for the Times and tonight's Survation with their last for the MoS, not the one from earlier in the week)
Can you clarify how you get your figures? Is it purely adding up the poll changes per party? So one poll showing +2 and one showing +3 would give you a figure of +5???
Exactly that
I hope those extra question marks aren't implying disgust?!
Not disgust, I just wonder how useful a metric it is to pause halfway through an average calculation. In the example I suggested, neither poll suggested a strong movement, but your method implies the opposite.
Not really because if you don't think +3 and +2 are strong movements I don't see how +5 after 2 polls would be either... It would be the same
I don't know what 'pause halfway through an average calculation ' relates to really if I'm honest
Okay, how about this: four polls all show ` +1 move to party x, all MOE stuff. Your method shows +4, a >MOE move.
as for "pause halfway through an average calculation", well it does exactly what it says on the tin... you added the scores, but neglected to divide by the number of scores to get an average.
I suppose there could be some merit in that it could show the breadth of movement. A large figure could suggest that any movement is supported across a broad panel, but even then it unreliable as a rogue poll could skew the figures badly.
Just saw Joe Root was made MOTM. Brilliant hundred but how often does 1 player win a match in the way Jimmy did today? Involved in the first 6 wickets today.
I know it's a batsman's game but that is ridiculous.
It was punishment for Jimmy for running like a muppet and getting run out, and depriving Joe Root of at least a double hundred and possibly a triple hundred.
You are a hard man TSE.
I'm a Yorkshireman, from Sheffield.
Joe Root is also from Sheffield.
Jimmy Anderson is a Lancastrian.
Just saying.
So you're all Northerners then, each of you cut from the same cloth.
And anyone who has watched GOT knows what happens to northerners.
Yesterday I came up with a theory about how GoT is going to end and it's moderately depressing and no matter how much more I think about it, I can't stop myself thinking that it is the only way the story can actually end.
Pray tell. My theory is that Daenerys ends on the throne with the Tyron as her Hand and Bran involved somehow. But that is too obvious, so Daenerys is bound to die a horrible death.
What came to me was this.
The battle for the Iron throne will come down to Sansa vs Danaerys, Stanis and Littlefinger will end up dead, Dorn (probably with one of the Sand Snakes ruling) will ally with The North under Sansa and Danaerys will have returned to Westeros usurping the much diminished Lannisters.
As we head to the final battle, a Nameless Man (which will be Arya) will be tasked with a job and sent back to Westeros. We won't know the job till it happens. And it will be the assasination of Sansa at Arya's hand.
I can't see past this outcome. Not if the arc is coherent, this fills pretty much everything we know about GoT and will be a pretty Epic if desperately sad and potentially unfulfilling end. I've not read the books, only going by the show.
Just saw Joe Root was made MOTM. Brilliant hundred but how often does 1 player win a match in the way Jimmy did today? Involved in the first 6 wickets today.
I know it's a batsman's game but that is ridiculous.
It was punishment for Jimmy for running like a muppet and getting run out, and depriving Joe Root of at least a double hundred and possibly a triple hundred.
You are a hard man TSE.
I'm a Yorkshireman, from Sheffield.
Joe Root is also from Sheffield.
Jimmy Anderson is a Lancastrian.
Just saying.
So you're all Northerners then, each of you cut from the same cloth.
And anyone who has watched GOT knows what happens to northerners.
Yesterday I came up with a theory about how GoT is going to end and it's moderately depressing and no matter how much more I think about it, I can't stop myself thinking that it is the only way the story can actually end.
Pray tell. My theory is that Daenerys ends on the throne with the Tyron as her Hand and Bran involved somehow. But that is too obvious, so Daenerys is bound to die a horrible death.
What came to me was this.
The battle for the Iron throne will come down to Sansa vs Danaerys, Stanis and Littlefinger will end up dead, Dorn will ally with The North under Sansa and Danaerys will have returned to Westeros usurping the much diminished Lannisters.
As we head to the final battle, a Nameless Man (which will be Arya) will be tasked with a job and sent back to Westeros. We won't know the job till it happens. And it will be the assasination of Sansa at Arya's hand.
I can't see past this outcome. Not if the arc is coherent, this fills pretty much everything we know about GoT and will be a pretty Epic if desperately sad and potentially unfulfilling end.
Wasn't it you who slated me for giving away "spoilers" from the Marvel: Civil War comics?
Just saw Joe Root was made MOTM. Brilliant hundred but how often does 1 player win a match in the way Jimmy did today? Involved in the first 6 wickets today.
I know it's a batsman's game but that is ridiculous.
It was punishment for Jimmy for running like a muppet and getting run out, and depriving Joe Root of at least a double hundred and possibly a triple hundred.
You are a hard man TSE.
I'm a Yorkshireman, from Sheffield.
Joe Root is also from Sheffield.
Jimmy Anderson is a Lancastrian.
Just saying.
So you're all Northerners then, each of you cut from the same cloth.
And anyone who has watched GOT knows what happens to northerners.
Yesterday I came up with a theory about how GoT is going to end and it's moderately depressing and no matter how much more I think about it, I can't stop myself thinking that it is the only way the story can actually end.
Surely Denerys Tararyen is going to arrive with her dragons who will blow the white walkers etc away with fire and she ends up appointing Tyrion as her hand since he is the only one smart enough to run it. And practically everyone else you have ever read about is dead, of course.
Game of thrones ends with L+R=J. Everyone knows this.
I seriously hesitate to put a major spoiler on a site where many may be simply enjoying the TV series but there is a fairly obvious flaw with that being the denouement.
Just saw Joe Root was made MOTM. Brilliant hundred but how often does 1 player win a match in the way Jimmy did today? Involved in the first 6 wickets today.
I know it's a batsman's game but that is ridiculous.
It was punishment for Jimmy for running like a muppet and getting run out, and depriving Joe Root of at least a double hundred and possibly a triple hundred.
You are a hard man TSE.
I'm a Yorkshireman, from Sheffield.
Joe Root is also from Sheffield.
Jimmy Anderson is a Lancastrian.
Just saying.
So you're all Northerners then, each of you cut from the same cloth.
And anyone who has watched GOT knows what happens to northerners.
Yesterday I came up with a theory about how GoT is going to end and it's moderately depressing and no matter how much more I think about it, I can't stop myself thinking that it is the only way the story can actually end.
Pray tell. My theory is that Daenerys ends on the throne with the Tyron as her Hand and Bran involved somehow. But that is too obvious, so Daenerys is bound to die a horrible death.
What came to me was this.
The battle for the Iron throne will come down to Sansa vs Danaerys, Stanis and Littlefinger will end up dead, Dorn will ally with The North under Sansa and Danaerys will have returned to Westeros usurping the much diminished Lannisters.
As we head to the final battle, a Nameless Man (which will be Arya) will be tasked with a job and sent back to Westeros. We won't know the job till it happens. And it will be the assasination of Sansa at Arya's hand.
I can't see past this outcome. Not if the arc is coherent, this fills pretty much everything we know about GoT and will be a pretty Epic if desperately sad and potentially unfulfilling end.
Wasn't it you who slated me for giving away "spoilers" from the Marvel: Civil War comics?
The last two books aren't written. As I understand it all the MCU stuff is already in the comics so it's actual spoilers not speculation.
I'm guessing, lol. BTW in my prediction the Dragons are balanced against the White Walkers who are on Sansa's army under Bran's control. Forgot that bit. Again, the books aren't written its pure speculation.
I always offer our tenants the option of a longer deal-I have had 4 (FOUR) so far this year who have taken up the chance of a 2 year deal.
This is an issue that the property owning classes think is a great idea, but the renting classes might think is less than optimal idea.
Very interested in this - my (very few and 2nd-party) brushes with renting, the would-be tenants have only ever been offered 6-month agreements. I thought that was all that was available.
I always offer our tenants the option of a longer deal-I have had 4 (FOUR) so far this year who have taken up the chance of a 2 year deal.
This is an issue that the property owning classes think is a great idea, but the renting classes might think is less than optimal idea.
Very interested in this - my (very few and 2nd-party) brushes with renting, the would-be tenants have only ever been offered 6-month agreements. I thought that was all that was available.
I always offer our tenants the option of a longer deal-I have had 4 (FOUR) so far this year who have taken up the chance of a 2 year deal.
This is an issue that the property owning classes think is a great idea, but the renting classes might think is less than optimal idea.
Very interested in this - my (very few and 2nd-party) brushes with renting, the would-be tenants have only ever been offered 6-month agreements. I thought that was all that was available.
When I let my property ten years ago, I gave a good discount at the time to my tenant at that time, and I haven't put up the rent since then. I have also given her payment holidays depending on her circumstances. I could double the rent, but life is too short to exploit people. I use an agency- but tell them never to charge anything when they draw new contracts, and they don't.
Are PB lefties genuinely confident or is it just bravado?
The national picture has been clear for a long time - the Tories will lose power if they don't establish a lead of at least 5%, and they've been more or less stuck around zero for 6 months. All three polls today show Labour improving or steady - a sudden leap to Tories +5 in 11 days would be startling.
Isn't this a leading question and wouldn't you expect an organization with the integrity of Survation to ask the Mail to try again?
"The SNP are a party committed to Scottish independence and the break-up of the UK. They cannot be trusted to act in the best interests of the UK if they were part of the UK government"
Best push poll for a long while.
It's awesome!
I did finally get two people asking about the SNP at a street stand today - one wanted me to promise no coalition, the other was very keen on working with Sturgeon. Both settled amiably for "no coalition but reasonable cooperation on issues", which is what I expect to happen.
Incidentally, there was real enthusiasm evident, as danny's friend reports - lots of Labour voters really fired up now, as well as some cheeerfully defiant Tories.
Just saw Joe Root was made MOTM. Brilliant hundred but how often does 1 player win a match in the way Jimmy did today? Involved in the first 6 wickets today.
I know it's a batsman's game but that is ridiculous.
It was punishment for Jimmy for running like a muppet and getting run out, and depriving Joe Root of at least a double hundred and possibly a triple hundred.
You are a hard man TSE.
I'm a Yorkshireman, from Sheffield.
Joe Root is also from Sheffield.
Jimmy Anderson is a Lancastrian.
Just saying.
So you're all Northerners then, each of you cut from the same cloth.
And anyone who has watched GOT knows what happens to northerners.
Yesterday I came up with a theory about how GoT is going to end and it's moderately depressing and no matter how much more I think about it, I can't stop myself thinking that it is the only way the story can actually end.
Pray tell. My theory is that Daenerys ends on the throne with the Tyron as her Hand and Bran involved somehow. But that is too obvious, so Daenerys is bound to die a horrible death.
What came to me was this.
As we head to the final battle, a Nameless Man (which will be Arya) will be tasked with a job and sent back to Westeros. We won't know the job till it happens. And it will be the assasination of Sansa at Arya's hand.
I can't see past this outcome. Not if the arc is coherent, this fills pretty much everything we know about GoT and will be a pretty Epic if desperately sad and potentially unfulfilling end.
Wasn't it you who slated me for giving away "spoilers" from the Marvel: Civil War comics?
The last two books aren't written. As I understand it all the MCU stuff is already in the comics so it's actual spoilers not speculation.
I'm guessing, lol. BTW in my prediction the Dragons are balanced against the White Walkers who are on Sansa's army under Bran's control. Forgot that bit. Again, the books aren't written its pure speculation.
In the same way I was speculating about a film that is yet to be made...
I've watched about half of S1 of GoT, everything posted in the last few mins is spoilers from my PoV
Edit: Not that I care, but seems to me you are doing that which you complained about.
Just saw Joe Root was made MOTM. Brilliant hundred but how often does 1 player win a match in the way Jimmy did today? Involved in the first 6 wickets today.
I know it's a batsman's game but that is ridiculous.
It was punishment for Jimmy for running like a muppet and getting run out, and depriving Joe Root of at least a double hundred and possibly a triple hundred.
You are a hard man TSE.
I'm a Yorkshireman, from Sheffield.
Joe Root is also from Sheffield.
Jimmy Anderson is a Lancastrian.
Just saying.
So you're all Northerners then, each of you cut from the same cloth.
And anyone who has watched GOT knows what happens to northerners.
Yesterday I came up with a theory about how GoT is going to end and it's moderately depressing and no matter how much more I think about it, I can't stop myself thinking that it is the only way the story can actually end.
Pray tell. My theory is that Daenerys ends on the throne with the Tyron as her Hand and Bran involved somehow. But that is too obvious, so Daenerys is bound to die a horrible death.
What came to me was this.
The battle for the Iron throne will come down to Sansa vs Danaerys, Stanis and Littlefinger will end up dead, Dorn (probably with one of the Sand Snakes ruling) will ally with The North under Sansa and Danaerys will have returned to Westeros usurping the much diminished Lannisters.
As we head to the final battle, a Nameless Man (which will be Arya) will be tasked with a job and sent back to Westeros. We won't know the job till it happens. And it will be the assasination of Sansa at Arya's hand.
I can't see past this outcome. Not if the arc is coherent, this fills pretty much everything we know about GoT and will be a pretty Epic if desperately sad and potentially unfulfilling end. I've not read the books, only going by the show.
Sansa is a wimp. She will come to a sticky end as all wimps do in GOT (and anyone with a shade of decency as well and most people with a pulse and those without a pulse and...well you get the idea.
Arya will have a role to play and may even survive. She may end up married to Tyrion to unite what is left of the houses. Or she may die. She is a Stark after all.
Are PB lefties genuinely confident or is it just bravado?
The national picture has been clear for a long time - the Tories will lose power if they don't establish a lead of at least 5%, and they've been more or less stuck around zero for 6 months. All three polls today show Labour improving or steady - a sudden leap to Tories +5 in 11 days would be startling.
Isn't this a leading question and wouldn't you expect an organization with the integrity of Survation to ask the Mail to try again?
"The SNP are a party committed to Scottish independence and the break-up of the UK. They cannot be trusted to act in the best interests of the UK if they were part of the UK government"
Best push poll for a long while.
It's awesome!
I did finally get two people asking about the SNP at a street stand today - one wanted me to promise no coalition, the other was very keen on working with Sturgeon. Both settled amiably for "no coalition but reasonable cooperation on issues", which is what I expect to happen.
Incidentally, there was real enthusiasm evident, as danny's friend reports - lots of Labour voters really fired up now, as well as some cheeerfully defiant Tories.
To be honest Nick I don't see the point of the ballot in Broxtowe - you clearly see it as won
Just saw Joe Root was made MOTM. Brilliant hundred but how often does 1 player win a match in the way Jimmy did today? Involved in the first 6 wickets today.
I know it's a batsman's game but that is ridiculous.
It was punishment for Jimmy for running like a muppet and getting run out, and depriving Joe Root of at least a double hundred and possibly a triple hundred.
You are a hard man TSE.
I'm a Yorkshireman, from Sheffield.
Joe Root is also from Sheffield.
Jimmy Anderson is a Lancastrian.
Just saying.
So you're all Northerners then, each of you cut from the same cloth.
And anyone who has watched GOT knows what happens to northerners.
Yesterday I came up with a theory about how GoT is going to end and it's moderately depressing and no matter how much more I think about it, I can't stop myself thinking that it is the only way the story can actually end.
Surely Denerys Tararyen is going to arrive with her dragons who will blow the white walkers etc away with fire and she ends up appointing Tyrion as her hand since he is the only one smart enough to run it. And practically everyone else you have ever read about is dead, of course.
Game of thrones ends with L+R=J. Everyone knows this.
Just saw Joe Root was made MOTM. Brilliant hundred but how often does 1 player win a match in the way Jimmy did today? Involved in the first 6 wickets today.
I know it's a batsman's game but that is ridiculous.
It was punishment for Jimmy for running like a muppet and getting run out, and depriving Joe Root of at least a double hundred and possibly a triple hundred.
You are a hard man TSE.
I'm a Yorkshireman, from Sheffield.
Joe Root is also from Sheffield.
Jimmy Anderson is a Lancastrian.
Just saying.
So you're all Northerners then, each of you cut from the same cloth.
And anyone who has watched GOT knows what happens to northerners.
Yesterday I came up with a theory about how GoT is going to end and it's moderately depressing and no matter how much more I think about it, I can't stop myself thinking that it is the only way the story can actually end.
Surely Denerys Tararyen is going to arrive with her dragons who will blow the white walkers etc away with fire and she ends up appointing Tyrion as her hand since he is the only one smart enough to run it. And practically everyone else you have ever read about is dead, of course.
Game of thrones ends with L+R=J. Everyone knows this.
I seriously hesitate to put a major spoiler on a site where many may be simply enjoying the TV series but there is a fairly obvious flaw with that being the denouement.
I think the show is entirely caught up with the books now, everything is speculation and not spoilers now.
Updated SPUD The best way of telling the way the political wind is blowing
3 polls today and the Conservatives equal their best score since the SPUDs were planted on Monday 16 polls in all this week and 11 different pollsters
(I have compared tonights YG w last Saturday's for the Times and tonight's Survation with their last for the MoS, not the one from earlier in the week)
Can you clarify how you get your figures? Is it purely adding up the poll changes per party? So one poll showing +2 and one showing +3 would give you a figure of +5???
Exactly that
I hope those extra question marks aren't implying disgust?!
Not disgust, I just wonder how useful a metric it is to pause halfway through an average calculation. In the example I suggested, neither poll suggested a strong movement, but your method implies the opposite.
Not really because if you don't think +3 and +2 are strong movements I don't see how +5 after 2 polls would be either... It would be the same
I don't know what 'pause halfway through an average calculation ' relates to really if I'm honest
Okay, how about this: four polls all show ` +1 move to party x, all MOE stuff. Your method shows +4, a >MOE move.
as for "pause halfway through an average calculation", well it does exactly what it says on the tin... you added the scores, but neglected to divide by the number of scores to get an average.
I suppose there could be some merit in that it could show the breadth of movement. A large figure could suggest that any movement is supported across a broad panel, but even then it unreliable as a rogue poll could skew the figures badly.
Yes exactly it shows the breadth of movement
As I say it is to tell which way the wind is blowing, nothing more
I liked to test the 'xxxx have got the mo' posts from partisans against some data that's all
And all the criticisms you make are kind of negated by the fact I say how many polls and different pollsters are used each time I update.. It really can't be harder to do the division yourself rather than type a post asking why I don't can it?
Just saw Joe Root was made MOTM. Brilliant hundred but how often does 1 player win a match in the way Jimmy did today? Involved in the first 6 wickets today.
I know it's a batsman's game but that is ridiculous.
It was punishment for Jimmy for running like a muppet and getting run out, and depriving Joe Root of at least a double hundred and possibly a triple hundred.
You are a hard man TSE.
I'm a Yorkshireman, from Sheffield.
Joe Root is also from Sheffield.
Jimmy Anderson is a Lancastrian.
Just saying.
So you're all Northerners then, each of you cut from the same cloth.
And anyone who has watched GOT knows what happens to northerners.
Yesterday I came up with a theory about how GoT is going to end and it's moderately depressing and no matter how much more I think about it, I can't stop myself thinking that it is the only way the story can actually end.
Surely Denerys Tararyen is going to arrive with her dragons who will blow the white walkers etc away with fire and she ends up appointing Tyrion as her hand since he is the only one smart enough to run it. And practically everyone else you have ever read about is dead, of course.
Game of thrones ends with L+R=J. Everyone knows this.
I seriously hesitate to put a major spoiler on a site where many may be simply enjoying the TV series but there is a fairly obvious flaw with that being the denouement.
I think the show is entirely caught up with the books now, everything is speculation and not spoilers now.
Just saw Joe Root was made MOTM. Brilliant hundred but how often does 1 player win a match in the way Jimmy did today? Involved in the first 6 wickets today.
I know it's a batsman's game but that is ridiculous.
It was punishment for Jimmy for running like a muppet and getting run out, and depriving Joe Root of at least a double hundred and possibly a triple hundred.
You are a hard man TSE.
I'm a Yorkshireman, from Sheffield.
Joe Root is also from Sheffield.
Jimmy Anderson is a Lancastrian.
Just saying.
So you're all Northerners then, each of you cut from the same cloth.
And anyone who has watched GOT knows what happens to northerners.
Yesterday I came up with a theory about how GoT is going to end and it's moderately depressing and no matter how much more I think about it, I can't stop myself thinking that it is the only way the story can actually end.
Pray tell. My theory is that Daenerys ends on the throne with the Tyron as her Hand and Bran involved somehow. But that is too obvious, so Daenerys is bound to die a horrible death.
What came to me was this.
The battle for the Iron throne will come down to Sansa vs Danaerys, Stanis and Littlefinger will end up dead, Dorn (probably with one of the Sand Snakes ruling) will ally with The North under Sansa and Danaerys will have returned to Westeros usurping the much diminished Lannisters.
As we head to the final battle, a Nameless Man (which will be Arya) will be tasked with a job and sent back to Westeros. We won't know the job till it happens. And it will be the assasination of Sansa at Arya's hand.
I can't see past this outcome. Not if the arc is coherent, this fills pretty much everything we know about GoT and will be a pretty Epic if desperately sad and potentially unfulfilling end. I've not read the books, only going by the show.
Sansa is a wimp. She will come to a sticky end as all wimps do in GOT (and anyone with a shade of decency as well and most people with a pulse and those without a pulse and...well you get the idea.
Arya will have a role to play and may even survive. She may end up married to Tyrion to unite what is left of the houses. Or she may die. She is a Stark after all.
I don't think she is a Stark any more. Or at least not for much longer.
Are PB lefties genuinely confident or is it just bravado?
The national picture has been clear for a long time - the Tories will lose power if they don't establish a lead of at least 5%, and they've been more or less stuck around zero for 6 months. All three polls today show Labour improving or steady - a sudden leap to Tories +5 in 11 days would be startling.
Isn't this a leading question and wouldn't you expect an organization with the integrity of Survation to ask the Mail to try again?
"The SNP are a party committed to Scottish independence and the break-up of the UK. They cannot be trusted to act in the best interests of the UK if they were part of the UK government"
Best push poll for a long while.
It's awesome!
I did finally get two people asking about the SNP at a street stand today - one wanted me to promise no coalition, the other was very keen on working with Sturgeon. Both settled amiably for "no coalition but reasonable cooperation on issues", which is what I expect to happen.
Incidentally, there was real enthusiasm evident, as danny's friend reports - lots of Labour voters really fired up now, as well as some cheeerfully defiant Tories.
To be honest Nick I don't see the point of the ballot in Broxtowe - you clearly see it as won
No one wants to win an election on a squeak and a prayer. It just makes them feel vulnerable. It is in Nick's and his parties interests to secure as many votes as possible, and to make an extremely marginal seat less marginal. MP's in safe seats take comfort in making safe seats safer.
Some PB Labour supporters seem almost complacently confident today which is a bit surprising given that today's polls including the Ashcroft marginals polls seem ok for the Tories. Survation has a 3 point Tory lead plus a big Kipper vote share which on the day could translate into a healthy Tory lead, especially if the undecided break blue and the can't be arseds can't be arsed. April pay packets will cause many undecided to muse too.
Are PB lefties genuinely confident or is it just bravado?
A late swing probably won't be sufficient. With postal voting expected to be up on 2010's already high figures, it will need a monsoon to the blue on polling day to change the outcome.
I'm also concerned by talk of conservatives already sounding out potential leaders, and plenty of blues supporters and donors already writing off the campaign. It's starting to feel like the writing is on the wall.
I think the lefties have every reason to feel confident.
In the same way I was speculating about a film that is yet to be made...
I've watched about half of S1 of GoT, everything posted in the last few mins is spoilers from my PoV
Edit: Not that I care, but seems to me you are doing that which you complained about.
As I said, my understanding is that MCU is following the comics, therefore it isn't speculation, it's spoilers. If it's not writtern then it's fair game for speculation.
In fairness all I asked is that for a Binge Dump series - Daredevil - it might be worth giving a few weeks before discussing it. Waiting four years might seem a bit beyond what's reasonable.
Updated SPUD The best way of telling the way the political wind is blowing
3 polls today and the Conservatives equal their best score since the SPUDs were planted on Monday 16 polls in all this week and 11 different pollsters
(I have compared tonights YG w last Saturday's for the Times and tonight's Survation with their last for the MoS, not the one from earlier in the week)
Can you clarify how you get your figures? Is it purely adding up the poll changes per party? So one poll showing +2 and one showing +3 would give you a figure of +5???
Exactly that
I hope those extra question marks aren't implying disgust?!
Not disgust, I just wonder how useful a metric it is to pause halfway through an average calculation. In the example I suggested, neither poll suggested a strong movement, but your method implies the opposite.
Not really because if you don't think +3 and +2 are strong movements I don't see how +5 after 2 polls would be either... It would be the same
I don't know what 'pause halfway through an average calculation ' relates to really if I'm honest
Okay, how about this: four polls all show ` +1 move to party x, all MOE stuff. Your method shows +4, a >MOE move.
as for "pause halfway through an average calculation", well it does exactly what it says on the tin... you added the scores, but neglected to divide by the number of scores to get an average.
I suppose there could be some merit in that it could show the breadth of movement. A large figure could suggest that any movement is supported across a broad panel, but even then it unreliable as a rogue poll could skew the figures badly.
Yes exactly it shows the breadth of movement
As I say it is to tell which way the wind is blowing, nothing more
I liked to test the 'xxxx have got the mo' posts from partisans against some data that's all
And all the criticisms you make are kind of negated by the fact I say how many polls and different pollsters are used each time I update.. It really can't be harder to do the division yourself rather than type a post asking why I don't can it?
Ha, fair point.
Bit my concern still stands.
Even giving the number of polls in a sample still doesn't detract from the problem that your headline figures are unreliable. I think you are more likely to see movement where there is none, but strangely it could also be good at reducing noisy data too.. I just don't think it adds much to the mix TBH, bit kudos for putting yourself out there.
In the same way I was speculating about a film that is yet to be made...
I've watched about half of S1 of GoT, everything posted in the last few mins is spoilers from my PoV
Edit: Not that I care, but seems to me you are doing that which you complained about.
As I said, my understanding is that MCU is following the comics, therefore it isn't speculation, it's spoilers. If it's not writtern then it's fair game for speculation.
In fairness all I asked is that for a Binge Dump series - Daredevil - it might be worth giving a few weeks before discussing it. Waiting four years might seem a bit beyond what's reasonable.
The MCU doesn't follow the comics, it uses the comics as a platform... Which version of Daredevil (out of the many) did you think was used as the basis of all of the character deaths (who I won't name) in the Netflix adaptation?
Who wrote the version of Thor and Loki that we've seen on screen?
Just saw Joe Root was made MOTM. Brilliant hundred but how often does 1 player win a match in the way Jimmy did today? Involved in the first 6 wickets today.
I know it's a batsman's game but that is ridiculous.
It was punishment for Jimmy for running like a muppet and getting run out, and depriving Joe Root of at least a double hundred and possibly a triple hundred.
You are a hard man TSE.
I'm a Yorkshireman, from Sheffield.
Joe Root is also from Sheffield.
Jimmy Anderson is a Lancastrian.
Just saying.
So you're all Northerners then, each of you cut from the same cloth.
And anyone who has watched GOT knows what happens to northerners.
Yesterday I came up with a theory about how GoT is going to end and it's moderately depressing and no matter how much more I think about it, I can't stop myself thinking that it is the only way the story can actually end.
Surely Denerys Tararyen is going to arrive with her dragons who will blow the white walkers etc away with fire and she ends up appointing Tyrion as her hand since he is the only one smart enough to run it. And practically everyone else you have ever read about is dead, of course.
Game of thrones ends with L+R=J. Everyone knows this.
I seriously hesitate to put a major spoiler on a site where many may be simply enjoying the TV series but there is a fairly obvious flaw with that being the denouement.
I think the show is entirely caught up with the books now, everything is speculation and not spoilers now.
Nope. They haven't.
My mistake, I've not read them deliberately so anything I do say is purely speculative. How much more till it's always ahead? End of Season 5?
Are PB lefties genuinely confident or is it just bravado?
The national picture has been clear for a long time - the Tories will lose power if they don't establish a lead of at least 5%, and they've been more or less stuck around zero for 6 months. All three polls today show Labour improving or steady - a sudden leap to Tories +5 in 11 days would be startling.
Isn't this a leading question and wouldn't you expect an organization with the integrity of Survation to ask the Mail to try again?
"The SNP are a party committed to Scottish independence and the break-up of the UK. They cannot be trusted to act in the best interests of the UK if they were part of the UK government"
Best push poll for a long while.
It's awesome!
I did finally get two people asking about the SNP at a street stand today - one wanted me to promise no coalition, the other was very keen on working with Sturgeon. Both settled amiably for "no coalition but reasonable cooperation on issues", which is what I expect to happen.
Incidentally, there was real enthusiasm evident, as danny's friend reports - lots of Labour voters really fired up now, as well as some cheeerfully defiant Tories.
To be honest Nick I don't see the point of the ballot in Broxtowe - you clearly see it as won
They're just going through the motions. Palmer's already popped the champagne corks, and is idling his time before a Sheffield/Kinnock style victory rally on May 7th.
The issue of politicians discussing alliances and cooking up agreements before the electorate have even been allowed to vote, came up on Any Questions last week. It won't go down well with the public, as it seems as if their democratic rights count for little compared to the lust for power and sheer greed of MPs.
I don't suppose you Labour folk ever considered getting yourselves an inspiring leader with an inspiring message to galvanise the nation as the SNP have been doing since 2007 - just a thought.
Or alternatively, Ed Miliband has had entirely different things to contend with than Sturgeon and so hasn't been able to be populist on spending (even though the IFS worked out they'd continue austerity), nor can he appeal to nationalism - alongside Scottish Labour's failures and structural collapse, the driving forces behind the SNP's success. I wouldn't describe Salmond as inspiring either - a brilliant politician who knows exactly how to manufacture and take political opportunties, but not inspiring. Sturgeon is evidently more so, but I still think her key attribute is how to spot and exploit opportunities. Turning David Cameron's ill-thought out speech (or was it?) the day after the Indyref into a broken promise and rallying cry was a masterpiece of her craft.
I think if he loses and his political obituary is written, Ed Miliband won't go down as a bad Labour leader - but one who attempted to reconcile the forces tearing at the Labour party (and the Tories too btw in other forms), as well as a great deal of personal hostility towards him from the tabloids and mid-market press, and couldn't quite get over the line due to a strange spell in 2014 when he seemed to lose his mojo for a bit.
Just saw Joe Root was made MOTM. Brilliant hundred but how often does 1 player win a match in the way Jimmy did today? Involved in the first 6 wickets today.
I know it's a batsman's game but that is ridiculous.
It was punishment for Jimmy for running like a muppet and getting run out, and depriving Joe Root of at least a double hundred and possibly a triple hundred.
You are a hard man TSE.
I'm a Yorkshireman, from Sheffield.
Joe Root is also from Sheffield.
Jimmy Anderson is a Lancastrian.
Just saying.
So you're all Northerners then, each of you cut from the same cloth.
And anyone who has watched GOT knows what happens to northerners.
Yesterday I came up with a theory about how GoT is going to end and it's moderately depressing and no matter how much more I think about it, I can't stop myself thinking that it is the only way the story can actually end.
Surely Denerys Tararyen is going to arrive with her dragons who will blow the white walkers etc away with fire and she ends up appointing Tyrion as her hand since he is the only one smart enough to run it. And practically everyone else you have ever read about is dead, of course.
Game of thrones ends with L+R=J. Everyone knows this.
I seriously hesitate to put a major spoiler on a site where many may be simply enjoying the TV series but there is a fairly obvious flaw with that being the denouement.
I think the show is entirely caught up with the books now, everything is speculation and not spoilers now.
Nope. They haven't.
My mistake, I've not read them deliberately so anything I do say is purely speculative. How much more till it's always ahead? End of Season 5?
Its a bit confusing because they have tried harder than the books did to try and keep some sort of chronological coherence between the various story threads. The result is that some of the latest book has already been done for some of the characters but quite a lot more still has to run for some others.
I would guess by the end of this series at least some of the characters will be going beyond the books published to date.
Some PB Labour supporters seem almost complacently confident today which is a bit surprising given that today's polls including the Ashcroft marginals polls seem ok for the Tories. Survation has a 3 point Tory lead plus a big Kipper vote share which on the day could translate into a healthy Tory lead, especially if the undecided break blue and the can't be arseds can't be arsed. April pay packets will cause many undecided to muse too.
Are PB lefties genuinely confident or is it just bravado?
A late swing probably won't be sufficient. With postal voting expected to be up on 2010's already high figures, it will need a monsoon to the blue on polling day to change the outcome.
I'm also concerned by talk of conservatives already sounding out potential leaders, and plenty of blues supporters and donors already writing off the campaign. It's starting to feel like the writing is on the wall.
I think the lefties have every reason to feel confident.
I'm starting to feel, mildly confident, and I am the most risk averse, nervous, scaredy lefty you could find. So fair do to the other lefties who have been more persuaded by the situation. I am such a nervous lefty that I am already fearing the right wing backlash, Boris Johnson and the first Tory majority in nearly 30 years come 2020.
In the same way I was speculating about a film that is yet to be made...
I've watched about half of S1 of GoT, everything posted in the last few mins is spoilers from my PoV
Edit: Not that I care, but seems to me you are doing that which you complained about.
As I said, my understanding is that MCU is following the comics, therefore it isn't speculation, it's spoilers. If it's not writtern then it's fair game for speculation.
In fairness all I asked is that for a Binge Dump series - Daredevil - it might be worth giving a few weeks before discussing it. Waiting four years might seem a bit beyond what's reasonable.
The MCU doesn't follow the comics, it uses the comics as a platform... Which version of Daredevil (out of the many) did you think was used as the basis of all of the character deaths (who I won't name) in the Netflix adaptation?
Who wrote the version of Thor and Loki that we've seen on screen?
etc, etc...
The whole multiple versions thing does tend to get beyond me. It's probably why I've never really gotten into comics. Although I will say, in terms of the CW version of The Flash they might (might) be trying to implement that in a TV series. There's some weird fan service in that show linking it to a previous version (as well as some amazing fan service aimed at everyone).
Updated SPUD The best way of telling the way the political wind is blowing
3 polls today and the Conservatives equal their best score since the SPUDs were planted on Monday 16 polls in all this week and 11 different pollsters
(I have compared tonights YG w last Saturday's for the Times and tonight's Survation with their last for the MoS, not the one from earlier in the week)
I hope those extra question marks aren't implying disgust?!
Not disgust, I just wonder how useful a metric it is to pause halfway through an average calculation. In the example I suggested, neither poll suggested a strong movement, but your method implies the opposite.
I don't know what 'pause halfway through an average calculation ' relates to really if I'm honest
Yes exactly it shows the breadth of movement
As I say it is to tell which way the wind is blowing, nothing more
I liked to test the 'xxxx have got the mo' posts from partisans against some data that's all
And all the criticisms you make are kind of negated by the fact I say how many polls and different pollsters are used each time I update.. It really can't be harder to do the division yourself rather than type a post asking why I don't can it?
Ha, fair point.
Bit my concern still stands.
Even giving the number of polls in a sample still doesn't detract from the problem that your headline figures are unreliable. I think you are more likely to see movement where there is none, but strangely it could also be good at reducing noisy data too.. I just don't think it adds much to the mix TBH, bit kudos for putting yourself out there.
Well it might be a load of noise who knows?
I also like to see the anger vented by people who want the figures to be something else!
But another reason I did it was to try and cut through the pathetic and childish 'it's been a good week for xxx but only because such and such a pollster is good for them'... Or the reverse
So I thought if i just measured the difference between polls from individual pollsters that excuse couldn't be used I am are comparing for instance survation vs survation in Ukips case, so the pro Ukip bias in both polls is irrelevant
In the same way I was speculating about a film that is yet to be made...
I've watched about half of S1 of GoT, everything posted in the last few mins is spoilers from my PoV
Edit: Not that I care, but seems to me you are doing that which you complained about.
As I said, my understanding is that MCU is following the comics, therefore it isn't speculation, it's spoilers. If it's not writtern then it's fair game for speculation.
In fairness all I asked is that for a Binge Dump series - Daredevil - it might be worth giving a few weeks before discussing it. Waiting four years might seem a bit beyond what's reasonable.
The MCU doesn't follow the comics, it uses the comics as a platform... Which version of Daredevil (out of the many) did you think was used as the basis of all of the character deaths (who I won't name) in the Netflix adaptation?
Who wrote the version of Thor and Loki that we've seen on screen?
etc, etc...
The whole multiple versions thing does tend to get beyond me. It's probably why I've never really gotten into comics. Although I will say, in terms of the CW version of The Flash they might (might) be trying to implement that in a TV series. There's some weird fan service in that show linking it to a previous version (as well as some amazing fan service aimed at everyone).
Was never much of a DC fan, but started watching Flash recently... it is good!
My point was that discussing comics versus the films is fine in that the films only loosely base their plots on the source material, much of which is decades old. Suff like GoT is based on one source, or original screenplay - discussing that in detail is worse.
Again, not that I care... just pointing out the hypocrisy ;-)
Survation "Would you consider voting Conservative to stop the possibility of a Labour/SNP coalition government? Base: All VI that isn't Conservative or SNP"
Yes Labour 6% LD 43% UKIP 37%
p.57
There is one big problem with that. There isn't a "Voting Conservative to stop the possibility of a Labour/SNP coalition" Party to vote for and seeing as the election is so unpredictable, that statement is just another reason for people who will vote aganst Labour, to vote against Labour.
I'd like to see someone poll "Would you consider voting Labour to stop the possibility of a Labour/SNP coalition".
Ed Miliband has had entirely different things to contend with than Sturgeon and so hasn't been able to be populist on spending (even though the IFS worked out they'd continue austerity)
No, they didn't.
The classed "reducing the deficit" as "austerity" when there is no link whatsoever between the two. The SNP will reduce the deficit through growth and higher tax take, while increasing spending. This is not "austerity". The IFS are lying and/or the Press mis-reporting.
Are PB lefties genuinely confident or is it just bravado?
The national picture has been clear for a long time - the Tories will lose power if they don't establish a lead of at least 5%, and they've been more or less stuck around zero for 6 months. All three polls today show Labour improving or steady - a sudden leap to Tories +5 in 11 days would be startling.
Isn't this a leading question and wouldn't you expect an organization with the integrity of Survation to ask the Mail to try again?
"The SNP are a party committed to Scottish independence and the break-up of the UK. They cannot be trusted to act in the best interests of the UK if they were part of the UK government"
Best push poll for a long while.
It's awesome!
I did finally get two people asking about the SNP at a street stand today - one wanted me to promise no coalition, the other was very keen on working with Sturgeon. Both settled amiably for "no coalition but reasonable cooperation on issues", which is what I expect to happen.
Incidentally, there was real enthusiasm evident, as danny's friend reports - lots of Labour voters really fired up now, as well as some cheeerfully defiant Tories.
Ed Miliband has had entirely different things to contend with than Sturgeon and so hasn't been able to be populist on spending (even though the IFS worked out they'd continue austerity)
No, they didn't.
The classed "reducing the deficit" as "austerity" when there is no link whatsoever between the two. The SNP will reduce the deficit through growth and higher tax take, while increasing spending. This is not "austerity". The IFS are lying and/or the Press mis-reporting.
If you want fantasy Dair stick to GOT. Honestly, its a lot more realistic.
It's the wisdom-of-crowds. The best possible result for Scots in Westminster is a huge phalanx of Scots in Westminster, with maximum leverage over a weak UK govt (of right or left).
I suspect, however, this will be Peak SNP. Scots will look at the North Korean result with faint revulsion, in retrospect, and ensure that it is not repeated in Holyrood in 2016.
I do not believe Sturgeon will get close to a Holyrood majority. Therefore there will be no 2nd referendum (which Sturgeon doesn't want, anyway, see her sudden aversion to fiscal autonomy).
Just saw Joe Root was made MOTM. Brilliant hundred but how often does 1 player win a match in the way Jimmy did today? Involved in the first 6 wickets today.
I know it's a batsman's game but that is ridiculous.
It was punishment for Jimmy for running like a muppet and getting run out, and depriving Joe Root of at least a double hundred and possibly a triple hundred.
You are a hard man TSE.
I'm a Yorkshireman, from Sheffield.
Joe Root is also from Sheffield.
Jimmy Anderson is a Lancastrian.
Just saying.
So you're all Northerners then, each of you cut from the same cloth.
And anyone who has watched GOT knows what happens to northerners.
Yesterday I came up with a theory about how GoT is going to end and it's moderately depressing and no matter how much more I think about it, I can't stop myself thinking that it is the only way the story can actually end.
Surely Denerys Tararyen is going to arrive with her dragons who will blow the white walkers etc away with fire and she ends up appointing Tyrion as her hand since he is the only one smart enough to run it. And practically everyone else you have ever read about is dead, of course.
Game of thrones ends with L+R=J. Everyone knows this.
I seriously hesitate to put a major spoiler on a site where many may be simply enjoying the TV series but there is a fairly obvious flaw with that being the denouement.
I think the show is entirely caught up with the books now, everything is speculation and not spoilers now.
Nope. They haven't.
My mistake, I've not read them deliberately so anything I do say is purely speculative. How much more till it's always ahead? End of Season 5?
I picked up the first book in a bookshop and sampled some of it. It was unreadable - amazing given how addicting the TV series is.
Just saw Joe Root was made MOTM. Brilliant hundred but how often does 1 player win a match in the way Jimmy did today? Involved in the first 6 wickets today.
I know it's a batsman's game but that is ridiculous.
It was punishment for Jimmy for running like a muppet and getting run out, and depriving Joe Root of at least a double hundred and possibly a triple hundred.
You are a hard man TSE.
I'm a Yorkshireman, from Sheffield.
Joe Root is also from Sheffield.
Jimmy Anderson is a Lancastrian.
Just saying.
So you're all Northerners then, each of you cut from the same cloth.
And anyone who has watched GOT knows what happens to northerners.
Yesterday I came up with a theory about how GoT is going to end and it's moderately depressing and no matter how much more I think about it, I can't stop myself thinking that it is the only way the story can actually end.
Surely Denerys Tararyen is going to arrive with her dragons who will blow the white walkers etc away with fire and she ends up appointing Tyrion as her hand since he is the only one smart enough to run it. And practically everyone else you have ever read about is dead, of course.
Game of thrones ends with L+R=J. Everyone knows this.
Most readers have already come to that conclusion, IMHO.
Yeah it's much better to have Imposed government by 35% of the electorate due to electoral quirks than have a party voted for by 50% of the population.
The people upstairs are annoying tonight... seems they have some friends round and the music is up. Wouldn't mind but it seems to be some pop/funk shit... Tempted to play some loud Pantera or similar, but then the reality of 2 sleeping children looms.
SeanT Of course in 2011 the SNP won 53 constituency seats at Holyrood, Labour 15, the Tories 3 and LDs two, the Westminster result will likely be similar and just a catch up from the situation already present in the Scottish Parliament
Yeah it's much better to have Imposed government by 35% of the electorate due to electoral quirks than have a party voted for by 50% of the population.
do you think an effective single party state is a good thing for democracy?
Are PB lefties genuinely confident or is it just bravado?
The national picture has been clear for a long time - the Tories will lose power if they don't establish a lead of at least 5%, and they've been more or less stuck around zero for 6 months. All three polls today show Labour improving or steady - a sudden leap to Tories +5 in 11 days would be startling.
Isn't this a leading question and wouldn't you expect an organization with the integrity of Survation to ask the Mail to try again?
"The SNP are a party committed to Scottish independence and the break-up of the UK. They cannot be trusted to act in the best interests of the UK if they were part of the UK government"
Best push poll for a long while.
It's awesome!
I did finally get two people asking about the SNP at a street stand today - one wanted me to promise no coalition, the other was very keen on working with Sturgeon. Both settled amiably for "no coalition but reasonable cooperation on issues", which is what I expect to happen.
Incidentally, there was real enthusiasm evident, as danny's friend reports - lots of Labour voters really fired up now, as well as some cheeerfully defiant Tories.
Palmer versus Soubry.
Jeez. Can't you both lose?
Labour are at 32.3% in tonight's polls, on average. I wouldn't be getting out the champagne just yet, if I were them.
Are PB lefties genuinely confident or is it just bravado?
The national picture has been clear for a long time - the Tories will lose power if they don't establish a lead of at least 5%, and they've been more or less stuck around zero for 6 months. All three polls today show Labour improving or steady - a sudden leap to Tories +5 in 11 days would be startling.
Isn't this a leading question and wouldn't you expect an organization with the integrity of Survation to ask the Mail to try again?
"The SNP are a party committed to Scottish independence and the break-up of the UK. They cannot be trusted to act in the best interests of the UK if they were part of the UK government"
Best push poll for a long while.
It's awesome!
I did finally get two people asking about the SNP at a street stand today - one wanted me to promise no coalition, the other was very keen on working with Sturgeon. Both settled amiably for "no coalition but reasonable cooperation on issues", which is what I expect to happen.
Incidentally, there was real enthusiasm evident, as danny's friend reports - lots of Labour voters really fired up now, as well as some cheeerfully defiant Tories.
Palmer versus Soubry.
Jeez. Can't you both lose?
Ex communist vs ex SDP
Everyone gets a bit more right wing as they get older... Or has the whole country moved left?
So further to Mike's thread the other day saying those two 4% leads can't both be rogue, the answer seems to be that the Opinium one was rogue, but Survation sees the race differently.
Ed Miliband has had entirely different things to contend with than Sturgeon and so hasn't been able to be populist on spending (even though the IFS worked out they'd continue austerity)
No, they didn't.
The classed "reducing the deficit" as "austerity" when there is no link whatsoever between the two. The SNP will reduce the deficit through growth and higher tax take, while increasing spending. This is not "austerity". The IFS are lying and/or the Press mis-reporting.
If you want fantasy Dair stick to GOT. Honestly, its a lot more realistic.
I'll keep thinking the IFS or the The Press are deliberately misreporting the SNP, you keep your nose firmly in the public purse for £50k per annum.
Yeah it's much better to have Imposed government by 35% of the electorate due to electoral quirks than have a party voted for by 50% of the population.
do you think an effective single party state is a good thing for democracy?
You unionists should get your act together, useless Gareth Hunts.
Just saw Joe Root was made MOTM. Brilliant hundred but how often does 1 player win a match in the way Jimmy did today? Involved in the first 6 wickets today.
I know it's a batsman's game but that is ridiculous.
It was punishment for Jimmy for running like a muppet and getting run out, and depriving Joe Root of at least a double hundred and possibly a triple hundred.
You are a hard man TSE.
I'm a Yorkshireman, from Sheffield.
Joe Root is also from Sheffield.
Jimmy Anderson is a Lancastrian.
Just saying.
So you're all Northerners then, each of you cut from the same cloth.
And anyone who has watched GOT knows what happens to northerners.
Yesterday I came up with a theory about how GoT is going to end and it's moderately depressing and no matter how much more I think about it, I can't stop myself thinking that it is the only way the story can actually end.
Surely Denerys Tararyen is going to arrive with her dragons who will blow the white walkers etc away with fire and she ends up appointing Tyrion as her hand since he is the only one smart enough to run it. And practically everyone else you have ever read about is dead, of course.
Game of thrones ends with L+R=J. Everyone knows this.
I seriously hesitate to put a major spoiler on a site where many may be simply enjoying the TV series but there is a fairly obvious flaw with that being the denouement.
I think the show is entirely caught up with the books now, everything is speculation and not spoilers now.
Nope. They haven't.
My mistake, I've not read them deliberately so anything I do say is purely speculative. How much more till it's always ahead? End of Season 5?
I picked up the first book in a bookshop and sampled some of it. It was unreadable - amazing given how addicting the TV series is.
That's quite an interesting look at the mindset. Significant numbers of Scots will choose the option where Scotland is better off even if they are personally worse off.
Ed Miliband has had entirely different things to contend with than Sturgeon and so hasn't been able to be populist on spending (even though the IFS worked out they'd continue austerity)
No, they didn't.
The classed "reducing the deficit" as "austerity" when there is no link whatsoever between the two. The SNP will reduce the deficit through growth and higher tax take, while increasing spending. This is not "austerity". The IFS are lying and/or the Press mis-reporting.
No, while it's true that the reporting on the deficit does often overlook the stagnation in tax revenues as a reason there's still a deficit, and it's woeful that Osborne hasn't been taken to task on this, you can't get rid of it all like that unless you're planning absolutely whopping tax rises. Growth, and in particular wage growth would help, but it's not guaranteed, as Osborne has found out, and again can only do so much. So you have to try and find some savings and cuts somewhere to help you along. I'll go with the IFS, the independent think-tank which often annoys all parties (despite them also citing them when it suits them) with its matter of fact analysis of the plausibility and consequences of their plans.
So more people in GB think Nicola Sturgeon is a more capable leader than Ed Miliband.
Not necessarily. If 17% think Sturgeon is the most capable leader and 15% think Miliband the most capable leader, then anywhere between 15% and 83% may reckon Miliband to be a more capable leader than Sturgeon.
Yeah it's much better to have Imposed government by 35% of the electorate due to electoral quirks than have a party voted for by 50% of the population.
do you think an effective single party state is a good thing for democracy?
It's not a single party state, it's a dominant party state. And yes, a dominant party state with 50% support is better than a plural state with a majority government getting 35% of the vote.
Ed Miliband has had entirely different things to contend with than Sturgeon and so hasn't been able to be populist on spending (even though the IFS worked out they'd continue austerity)
No, they didn't.
The classed "reducing the deficit" as "austerity" when there is no link whatsoever between the two. The SNP will reduce the deficit through growth and higher tax take, while increasing spending. This is not "austerity". The IFS are lying and/or the Press mis-reporting.
At best the SNP aspire to reduce the deficit that way.
Just saw Joe Root was made MOTM. Brilliant hundred but how often does 1 player win a match in the way Jimmy did today? Involved in the first 6 wickets today.
I know it's a batsman's game but that is ridiculous.
It was punishment for Jimmy for running like a muppet and getting run out, and depriving Joe Root of at least a double hundred and possibly a triple hundred.
You are a hard man TSE.
I'm a Yorkshireman, from Sheffield.
Joe Root is also from Sheffield.
Jimmy Anderson is a Lancastrian.
Just saying.
So you're all Northerners then, each of you cut from the same cloth.
And anyone who has watched GOT knows what happens to northerners.
Yesterday I came up with a theory about how GoT is going to end and it's moderately depressing and no matter how much more I think about it, I can't stop myself thinking that it is the only way the story can actually end.
Surely Denerys Tararyen is going to arrive with her dragons who will blow the white walkers etc away with fire and she ends up appointing Tyrion as her hand since he is the only one smart enough to run it. And practically everyone else you have ever read about is dead, of course.
Game of thrones ends with L+R=J. Everyone knows this.
I seriously hesitate to put a major spoiler on a site where many may be simply enjoying the TV series but there is a fairly obvious flaw with that being the denouement.
I think the show is entirely caught up with the books now, everything is speculation and not spoilers now.
Nope. They haven't.
My mistake, I've not read them deliberately so anything I do say is purely speculative. How much more till it's always ahead? End of Season 5?
I picked up the first book in a bookshop and sampled some of it. It was unreadable - amazing given how addicting the TV series is.
Another Tolkein?
My lady stopped watching when Sean Bean got done for. I didn't have the heart to tell her he was going to get decapped.
SeanT Of course in 2011 the SNP won 53 constituency seats at Holyrood, Labour 15, the Tories 3 and LDs two, the Westminster result will likely be similar and just a catch up from the situation already present in the Scottish Parliament
Peak SNP.
Remember that in 2016 Scots will be voting for a Holyrood government with INCOME TAX raising powers. That will sober up the voters. No more whingeing about the English: the Scots government you elect imposes and collects the most conspicuous tax of all, then spends it.
Unless the Scots have been converted into a mad, passionate people happy to suffer for the cause of FREEDOM, I reckon they will shake their heads at Sturgeon's lefty grandstanding.
She'll win, but need a Coalition. Etc.
Peak SNP has been called 3 times before, 2007, 2011, and indyref. They probably called it in the 70's as well, can't remember that far back. Oops,forgot it was called when the Holyrood parliament was opened.
SeanT Of course in 2011 the SNP won 53 constituency seats at Holyrood, Labour 15, the Tories 3 and LDs two, the Westminster result will likely be similar and just a catch up from the situation already present in the Scottish Parliament
Peak SNP.
Remember that in 2016 Scots will be voting for a Holyrood government with INCOME TAX raising powers. That will sober up the voters. No more whingeing about the English: the Scots government you elect imposes and collects the most conspicuous tax of all, then spends it.
Unless the Scots have been converted into a mad, passionate people happy to suffer for the cause of FREEDOM, I reckon they will shake their heads at Sturgeon's lefty grandstanding.
She'll win, but need a Coalition. Etc.
May well depend on the result of this election, if Ed wins, has a relatively ok year with the economy continuing to grow, announcing his most popular policies and faces down the SNP to an extent, then they'll be in a tricky position before the 2016 election - vote through Labour legislation that's been derided as 'Red Tory', or bring the whole thing down and risk putting a real Tory back in No.10. Then I can see what you envisage coming to pass, as the inherent contradiction of saying 'Labour are the same as the Tories, but we'd never work with the horrible Tories and want a Labour PM' is shown to be that.
However if we see a Cameron government, I can see them romping home. Firstly, if Osborne's true to his word on his cuts plan, the worst ones will come next year. Secondly, as we've seen in the election campaign the Tories will be determined to pick fights with the SNP to play up to being the 'English' party and EVEL is likely to cause a stir. Lastly, if it looks remotely like we might vote for Brexit in the 2017 referendum, Sturgeon can use it to say that Scotland needs an SNP government to swiftly move towards independence should Britain leave the EU.
Are PB lefties genuinely confident or is it just bravado?
The national picture has been clear for a long time - the Tories will lose power if they don't establish a lead of at least 5%, and they've been more or less stuck around zero for 6 months. All three polls today show Labour improving or steady - a sudden leap to Tories +5 in 11 days would be startling.
I'm sure you're not really this blase, Nick. You know as well as I do that the consistency of the polls doesn't mean they're right or that you can get an accurate figure by taking a simple average. My interpretation of the polls is that current state of parties is approx Con 34.5 Lab 30.5, which is probably enough to keep DC at Number 10, as well as being the worst result for the centre-left since 1992. Looking on the bright side, if Labour lose and Ed resigns, you can get a decent leader in before the autumn '15 election.
Nothing nearly so literary. Just over-detailed and written like a screenplay rather than a novel.
That said, I am in awe of the world he has created and how coherent and internally consistent the plot is - no mean task on such a massive undertaking. I read somewhere that there are some 200+ named characters in the TV show, whereas that number exceeds 1500 in the books.
I see the Sunday Times poll is in and fulfills the earlier expectation.
It was Salmond not Sturgeon who seized on Cameron's arrogant post referendum speech which was ceratinly a game changer. However there is no doubt that Sturgeon is the outstanding/only inspiring leader of this campaign.
MarktheOwl/SeanT Of course the Smith proposals will be legislated for post election too. While Sturgeon would comfortably retain her majority at Holyrood on the constituency seats, the regional list could make it more difficult, especially if UKIP win a couple of seats for the first time, and they already have an MEP in Scotland
SeanT Of course in 2011 the SNP won 53 constituency seats at Holyrood, Labour 15, the Tories 3 and LDs two, the Westminster result will likely be similar and just a catch up from the situation already present in the Scottish Parliament
Peak SNP.
Remember that in 2016 Scots will be voting for a Holyrood government with INCOME TAX raising powers. That will sober up the voters. No more whingeing about the English: the Scots government you elect imposes and collects the most conspicuous tax of all, then spends it.
Scottish Parliament has had the ability to vary income tax by 3p in either direction since '99
SeanT Of course in 2011 the SNP won 53 constituency seats at Holyrood, Labour 15, the Tories 3 and LDs two, the Westminster result will likely be similar and just a catch up from the situation already present in the Scottish Parliament
Peak SNP.
Remember that in 2016 Scots will be voting for a Holyrood government with INCOME TAX raising powers. That will sober up the voters. No more whingeing about the English: the Scots government you elect imposes and collects the most conspicuous tax of all, then spends it.
Scottish Parliament has had the ability to vary income tax by 3p in either direction since '99
I'm enjoying the befuddlement of the past masters of synthetic outrage and grievance mongering - Labour, and in particular the SNP, at the Tories Scottish play - Janet Daley captures it perfectly:
It is pretty rich for the SNP – who have incited the most febrile nationalism seen in British politics for generations – to claim that the Conservatives are stoking a dangerous “English nationalism”. It is perfectly reasonable, apparently, for them to want legislative and fiscal independence from us, but hysterical and fear-mongering for us to want to carry that to its obvious conclusion and establish legislative and fiscal independence from them.
WTF...Wouldn't even need a mini-bus for the minor parties, a Ford Focus would do the job. Scots not thinking much of Milifandom.
I think you can definitely stick your UNS calculators up your [beep] this GE.
We all enjoy a little schadenfreude now and again but exactly why right wingers should be so gleeful at the fact that a more left-wing party than Labour is sweeping all before it in Scotland baffles me. I cannot see how that offers any comfort to Tory sympathisers at all. Looking at in in terms of the current coalition they are set to lose at least 10 seats in Scotland and it is absolutely clear that hell will freeze over before the SNP have anything to do with the Tories.
Yeah it's much better to have Imposed government by 35% of the electorate due to electoral quirks than have a party voted for by 50% of the population.
do you think an effective single party state is a good thing for democracy?
It's not a single party state, it's a dominant party state. And yes, a dominant party state with 50% support is better than a plural state with a majority government getting 35% of the vote.
Unfortunately the actions of SNP supporters suggests that their aim is a single party state. - But that's socialists the world over for you.
Comments
I think John Rentoul has it more or less right when he says that he thinks the probability of who is PM has mildly shifted in Ed's favour - putting it at about 60%, before the campaign he'd have made Cameron favourite. There's so many different strands of opinion and competing factors that could decide the election, that who knows - but being a smidgen ahead in the polls is a much better position than most people thought Labour would be now.
Oh, and why will April pay packets decide it? The Tories have already tried this with 'money back Monday', which came just after March pay packets arrived - nothing budged.
I don't suppose you Labour folk ever considered getting yourselves an inspiring leader with an inspiring message to galvanise the nation as the SNP have been doing since 2007 - just a thought.
as for "pause halfway through an average calculation", well it does exactly what it says on the tin... you added the scores, but neglected to divide by the number of scores to get an average.
I suppose there could be some merit in that it could show the breadth of movement. A large figure could suggest that any movement is supported across a broad panel, but even then it unreliable as a rogue poll could skew the figures badly.
The battle for the Iron throne will come down to Sansa vs Danaerys, Stanis and Littlefinger will end up dead, Dorn (probably with one of the Sand Snakes ruling) will ally with The North under Sansa and Danaerys will have returned to Westeros usurping the much diminished Lannisters.
As we head to the final battle, a Nameless Man (which will be Arya) will be tasked with a job and sent back to Westeros. We won't know the job till it happens. And it will be the assasination of Sansa at Arya's hand.
I can't see past this outcome. Not if the arc is coherent, this fills pretty much everything we know about GoT and will be a pretty Epic if desperately sad and potentially unfulfilling end. I've not read the books, only going by the show.
She is a class act, regardless of what you think of her politics.
I'm guessing, lol. BTW in my prediction the Dragons are balanced against the White Walkers who are on Sansa's army under Bran's control. Forgot that bit. Again, the books aren't written its pure speculation.
I did finally get two people asking about the SNP at a street stand today - one wanted me to promise no coalition, the other was very keen on working with Sturgeon. Both settled amiably for "no coalition but reasonable cooperation on issues", which is what I expect to happen.
Incidentally, there was real enthusiasm evident, as danny's friend reports - lots of Labour voters really fired up now, as well as some cheeerfully defiant Tories.
I've watched about half of S1 of GoT, everything posted in the last few mins is spoilers from my PoV
Edit: Not that I care, but seems to me you are doing that which you complained about.
Arya will have a role to play and may even survive. She may end up married to Tyrion to unite what is left of the houses. Or she may die. She is a Stark after all.
Doesn't matter though. He knows nothing.
As I say it is to tell which way the wind is blowing, nothing more
I liked to test the 'xxxx have got the mo' posts from partisans against some data that's all
And all the criticisms you make are kind of negated by the fact I say how many polls and different pollsters are used each time I update.. It really can't be harder to do the division yourself rather than type a post asking why I don't can it?
I'm also concerned by talk of conservatives already sounding out potential leaders, and plenty of blues supporters and donors already writing off the campaign. It's starting to feel like the writing is on the wall.
I think the lefties have every reason to feel confident.
In fairness all I asked is that for a Binge Dump series - Daredevil - it might be worth giving a few weeks before discussing it. Waiting four years might seem a bit beyond what's reasonable.
Bit my concern still stands.
Even giving the number of polls in a sample still doesn't detract from the problem that your headline figures are unreliable.
I think you are more likely to see movement where there is none, but strangely it could also be good at reducing noisy data too.. I just don't think it adds much to the mix TBH, bit kudos for putting yourself out there.
Who wrote the version of Thor and Loki that we've seen on screen?
etc, etc...
The issue of politicians discussing alliances and cooking up agreements before the electorate have even been allowed to vote, came up on Any Questions last week. It won't go down well with the public, as it seems as if their democratic rights count for little compared to the lust for power and sheer greed of MPs.
I think if he loses and his political obituary is written, Ed Miliband won't go down as a bad Labour leader - but one who attempted to reconcile the forces tearing at the Labour party (and the Tories too btw in other forms), as well as a great deal of personal hostility towards him from the tabloids and mid-market press, and couldn't quite get over the line due to a strange spell in 2014 when he seemed to lose his mojo for a bit.
I would guess by the end of this series at least some of the characters will be going beyond the books published to date.
I am such a nervous lefty that I am already fearing the right wing backlash, Boris Johnson and the first Tory majority in nearly 30 years come 2020.
I shudder at the prospect
I think you can definitely stick your UNS calculators up your [beep] this GE.
Con 298 Lab 264 LD 16 Ukip 2 Green 1 SNP 48
I think this would keep Cameron in power.
I also like to see the anger vented by people who want the figures to be something else!
But another reason I did it was to try and cut through the pathetic and childish 'it's been a good week for xxx but only because such and such a pollster is good for them'... Or the reverse
So I thought if i just measured the difference between polls from individual pollsters that excuse couldn't be used I am are comparing for instance survation vs survation in Ukips case, so the pro Ukip bias in both polls is irrelevant
My point was that discussing comics versus the films is fine in that the films only loosely base their plots on the source material, much of which is decades old. Suff like GoT is based on one source, or original screenplay - discussing that in detail is worse.
Again, not that I care... just pointing out the hypocrisy ;-)
The classed "reducing the deficit" as "austerity" when there is no link whatsoever between the two. The SNP will reduce the deficit through growth and higher tax take, while increasing spending. This is not "austerity". The IFS are lying and/or the Press mis-reporting.
Tempted to play some loud Pantera or similar, but then the reality of 2 sleeping children looms.
Sigh
Everyone gets a bit more right wing as they get older... Or has the whole country moved left?
Wonderful reflection on the charity of Scotland.
My phone is going to melt at this rate.
They probably called it in the 70's as well, can't remember that far back.
Oops,forgot it was called when the Holyrood parliament was opened.
However if we see a Cameron government, I can see them romping home. Firstly, if Osborne's true to his word on his cuts plan, the worst ones will come next year. Secondly, as we've seen in the election campaign the Tories will be determined to pick fights with the SNP to play up to being the 'English' party and EVEL is likely to cause a stir. Lastly, if it looks remotely like we might vote for Brexit in the 2017 referendum, Sturgeon can use it to say that Scotland needs an SNP government to swiftly move towards independence should Britain leave the EU.
Nothing nearly so literary. Just over-detailed and written like a screenplay rather than a novel.
That said, I am in awe of the world he has created and how coherent and internally consistent the plot is - no mean task on such a massive undertaking. I read somewhere that there are some 200+ named characters in the TV show, whereas that number exceeds 1500 in the books.
I see the Sunday Times poll is in and fulfills the earlier expectation.
It was Salmond not Sturgeon who seized on Cameron's arrogant post referendum speech which was ceratinly a game changer. However there is no doubt that Sturgeon is the outstanding/only inspiring leader of this campaign.
It is pretty rich for the SNP – who have incited the most febrile nationalism seen in British politics for generations – to claim that the Conservatives are stoking a dangerous “English nationalism”. It is perfectly reasonable, apparently, for them to want legislative and fiscal independence from us, but hysterical and fear-mongering for us to want to carry that to its obvious conclusion and establish legislative and fiscal independence from them.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2015/11561626/A-Labour-SNP-pact-would-be-an-outrage-to-democracy.html
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/howaboutthat/11562899/999-timewaster-called-an-ambulance-to-help-hit-and-run-squirrel.html