My God, something for nothing and the "free marketer" still isn't satisfied with the bargain he's getting. Tells you all you need to know about them, really?
I help fund this place (including putting my money foward). Just ask Pulpie and Wee-Timmie!
And your point is caller?
What do you mean by "putting my money forward"? And are you saying you sub OGH?
Hmmm! Sub...?
I donate as required. I bet with others to generate income. I also - in the past - get moderated.
What I do is provide funding bets for this site. My £50 bbl Brent is quite well known. [Sorry Pulpie; and Junior's eagerness for the typo £30 bbl Brent could appear embarrassing when Iran comes back on-stream. ]
So:
I called 'No Triple-dip' recession (as, by definition, a recession is singular), but no bets won,
I called "Gideon" calling the PBR in FY2013 correctly (and thank-you to Ben-M for clarifying this).
I called Brent £/bbl right once and - maybe - twice.
All helps to fund a betting site. My New-Year bets have not been so well-received though (as they look pretty-close-to-the-mark).
No? You think points systems are all sweetness and light? Canada has a points system. Have you seen its numbers of immigrants. A country with a far smaller population nthan the UK has about 250,000 immigrants a year. It has a large immigrant p
What a lot of illiterate cut-and-pastery and cant, why do you bother. I know you have your latest sound byte handed you by CCHQ ("nativism"), and that you are trying hard to get it into every post, but try to at least use it in a place that makes sense.
A points based system if the very opposite of "nativism", although you would need an IQ and a pulse to understand that, it means accepting anyone, from anywhere, of any colour, from any culture that is beneficial to the country, in terms of their skills and abilities, suitability to work and ability to contribute.
Not necessarily, you could give people three points for being white, or if that was too shocking use approximate proxies for that like points for having ancestors from x, y and z.
Ancestry is a the key element in most countries, notably Israel and India, citizenship and immigration policies, and rightly so. British Zimbabweans have an inherent right to seek and be granted asylum here.
This was part of the Japanese policy to deal with their demographic problems. They realized they needed more people but they were worried a bunch of foreigners wouldn't fit in, so they paid people with Japanese grandparents to come over. Unfortunately it turned out that the Brazailian grandchildren of Japanese people act like Brazilians not Japanese people, and Brazilians are the least culturally-Japanese-like people this side of the Hutt Space planets, and they ended up paying them to go away again.
Even Brazilians of Japanese ancestry were unable to assimilate and were encouraged to go home. The Japanese seem perfectly happy to allow their population to decline until it reaches a sustainable level. The Japanese just like being Japanese at the end of the day, and they will still be around in a hundred years time. Nothing like a good healthy distrust of strangers.
Seriously quoting the guardian on the economy! Social policy, what teachers, universities or the media particularly the bbc then Ok. But the economy. You might as well ask as schoolkids for all they know
No? You think points systems are all sweetness and light? Canada has a points system. Have you seen its numbers of immigrants. A country with a far smaller population nthan the UK has about 250,000 immigrants a year. It has a large immigrant p
What a lot of illiterate cut-and-pastery and cant, why do you bother. I know you have your latest sound byte handed you by CCHQ ("nativism"), and that you are trying hard to get it into every post, but try to at least use it in a place that makes sense.
A points based system if the very opposite of "nativism", although you would need an IQ and a pulse to understand that, it means accepting anyone, from anywhere, of any colour, from any culture that is beneficial to the country, in terms of their skills and abilities, suitability to work and ability to contribute.
Not necessarily, you could give people three points for being white, or if that was too shocking use approximate proxies for that like points for having ancestors from x, y and z.
Ancestry is a the key element in most countries, notably Israel and India, citizenship and immigration policies, and rightly so. British Zimbabweans have an inherent right to seek and be granted asylum here.
This was part of the Japanese policy to deal with their demographic problems. They realized they needed more people but they were worried a bunch of foreigners wouldn't fit in, so they paid people with Japanese grandparents to come over. Unfortunately it turned out that the Brazailian grandchildren of Japanese people act like Brazilians not Japanese people, and Brazilians are the least culturally-Japanese-like people this side of the Hutt Space planets, and they ended up paying them to go away again.
Even Brazilians of Japanese ancestry were unable to assimilate and were encouraged to go home. The Japanese seem perfectly happy to allow their population to decline until it reaches a sustainable level. The Japanese just like being Japanese at the end of the day, and they will still be around in a hundred years time. Nothing like a good healthy distrust of strangers.
It also has a more or less stagnant economy for 25 years ! Debt as a % of GDP - around 250%. UK 85%
@isam - Actually, I just disagree that "it is as simple as that". I think it is very complex, hugely nuanced and requires a lot of thinking through. I am highly suspicious of any party that offers simple solutions, because I do not believe that these exist. One of the problems with the immigration debate in this country (and in others) is that it is conducted in sound-bites. I can see the damage it has done, but I can also see the benefits it has brought. On balance I think the country as a whole has benefited from free movement inside the EU, though I accept that certain sections of it may not have done; my concern is much more about immigration from elsewhere, more specifically from certain parts of elsewhere. Like you, I don't blame anyone from anywhere for coming here, but we do need to look more carefully at who we let in and why.
@paulhutcheon: New blog: French diplomat refuses to deny memo claim that Sturgeon "didn't see Ed Miliband as PM material". http://t.co/hVkTMG58W6
This Consul-General uses his words very carefully. Firstly, he said, the discussion between the women did not concern "their political preferences" . Why choose the word "their" ?. No one suggested that the French Ambassador revealed her preference.
Now, the new line:
"There has been no preference expressed regarding the outcome of the elections"
but he is hotly not commenting on Sturgeon "didn't see Ed Miliband as PM material".
So some part of the memo clearly was true !
My suspicion now is that the whole thing was true. Sturgeon knows that the French are already embarrassed about this and cannot confirm her words this side of the election. She herself being a politician will simply flatly lie.
@paulhutcheon: New blog: French diplomat refuses to deny memo claim that Sturgeon "didn't see Ed Miliband as PM material". http://t.co/hVkTMG58W6
This Consul-General uses his words very carefully. Firstly, he said, the discussion between the women did not concern "their political preferences" . Why choose the word "their" ?. No one suggested that the French Ambassador revealed her preference.
Now, the new line:
"There has been no preference expressed regarding the outcome of the elections"
but he is hotly not commenting on Sturgeon "didn't see Ed Miliband as PM material".
So some part of the memo clearly was true !
My suspicion now is that the whole thing was true. Sturgeon knows that the French are already embarrassed about this and cannot confirm her words this side of the election. She herself being a politician will simply flatly lie.
I doubt it - if so why would the French speak at all.
My guess is that all the "facts" are correct: that the discussion took place, possibly the Salmond comment (a little indiscreet but no worse). I also suspect that Sturgeon said that she thought Ed was not PM material and, perhaps, that she could work with Cameron.
Where it went wrong was the *conclusion* that the *French Ambassador* drew (not unreasonably, especially if you are unware of the nuances of Scottish politics) that Sturgeon would prefer Cameron to Milliband. This was reported back to the Scottish Office who recorded it, but didn't think it was correct.
You should read the French, Spanish and Portuguese press to see the costs those countries are having to assume to look after our pensioners. Those are costs we would be assuming otherwise - probably even more so, in fact, given that things illnesses relating hypothermia are less of an issue in southern Europe.
There are complaints everywhere about 'foreigners'.
But the British retirees to Spain etc are for the most part a cash cow to the local economy especially considering two other factors:
1) They buy property, so helping the local construction indsutry.
2) Few people retire to a foreign country without first having spent time there. A British retiree to Spain might have had 40+ years of Spanish holidays pumping money into the Spanish economy before moving there permanently.
Most EU immigrants here are in work and are therefore a cash cow for us. They buy things from our shops, buy or rent their homes, pay taxes and so on. Indeed, don't recent figures show that the recovery has been built on the back of immigrants? We import young, healthy ones from Europe and tend to export older, less healthy ones:
I'd argue that most of the problematic immigration comes from outside the EU and mainly from specific parts of the world that are clearly identifiable and which we should be able to do something about.
The difference is that the retirees in Spain are generally much richer than usual British pensioners and spend a lot of money in Spain.
They also have a positive effect on jobs in Spain as jobs are created by their emigration and none are taken by them. The "Import" (a word you previously said was unsuitable for describing humans, yet are using it here) of immigrants to work in the UK leads to lower wages for the people already at the lower end of society and more profit for the bosses who employ them
One of the more obscure complaints is that, because the NHS doesn't check on where patients come from, it doesn't bill Spaniards etc who are treated here.
@isam - Actually, I just disagree that "it is as simple as that". I think it is very complex, hugely nuanced and requires a lot of thinking through. I am highly suspicious of any party that offers simple solutions, because I do not believe that these exist. One of the problems with the immigration debate in this country (and in others) is that it is conducted in sound-bites. I can see the damage it has done, but I can also see the benefits it has brought. On balance I think the country as a whole has benefited from free movement inside the EU, though I accept that certain sections of it may not have done; my concern is much more about immigration from elsewhere, more specifically from certain parts of elsewhere. Like you, I don't blame anyone from anywhere for coming here, but we do need to look more carefully at who we let in and why.
Now that's one of your better post on immigration.
No? You think points systems are all sweetness and light? Canada has a points system. Have you seen its numbers of immigrants. A country with a far smaller population nthan the UK has about 250,000 immigrants a year. It has a large immigrant p
What a lot of illiterate cut-and-pastery and cant, why do you bother. I know you have your latest sound byte handed you by CCHQ ("nativism"), and that you are trying hard to get it into every post, but try to at least use it in a place that makes sense.
A points based system if the very opposite of "nativism", although you would need an IQ and a pulse to understand that, it means accepting anyone, from anywhere, of any colour, from any culture that is beneficial to the country, in terms of their skills and abilities, suitability to work and ability to contribute.
Not necessarily, you could give people three points for being white, or if that was too shocking use approximate proxies for that like points for having ancestors from x, y and z.
Ancestry is a the key element in most countries, notably Israel and India, citizenship and immigration policies, and rightly so. British Zimbabweans have an inherent right to seek and be granted asylum here.
This was part of the Japanese policy to deal with their demographic problems. They realized they needed more people but they were worried a bunch of foreigners wouldn't fit in, so they paid people with Japanese grandparents to come over. Unfortunately it turned out that the Brazailian grandchildren of Japanese people act like Brazilians not Japanese people, and Brazilians are the least culturally-Japanese-like people this side of the Hutt Space planets, and they ended up paying them to go away again.
Even Brazilians of Japanese ancestry were unable to assimilate and were encouraged to go home. The Japanese seem perfectly happy to allow their population to decline until it reaches a sustainable level. The Japanese just like being Japanese at the end of the day, and they will still be around in a hundred years time. Nothing like a good healthy distrust of strangers.
Dunno what you think a "sustainable level" would be, but when push comes to shove I think people will want their pensions paid.
Japan is a bit of a weird case because they don't generally think that assimilation is a thing. This is incredibly frustrating for some long-term foreign residents who want to be accepted as normal members of society, but there's an upside to it if you just want to be able to do what you like.
@isam - Actually, I just disagree that "it is as simple as that". I think it is very complex, hugely nuanced and requires a lot of thinking through. I am highly suspicious of any party that offers simple solutions, because I do not believe that these exist. One of the problems with the immigration debate in this country (and in others) is that it is conducted in sound-bites. I can see the damage it has done, but I can also see the benefits it has brought. On balance I think the country as a whole has benefited from free movement inside the EU, though I accept that certain sections of it may not have done; my concern is much more about immigration from elsewhere, more specifically from certain parts of elsewhere. Like you, I don't blame anyone from anywhere for coming here, but we do need to look more carefully at who we let in and why.
Fair enough
I agree that it is possible the country as benefited as a whole but that isn't the way if measure it
If I won the lottery the day after 20 of my friends went bankrupt we would be financially better off cumulatively. Only if I shared it equally would we all be better off
It is a utilitarian argument. What is the rule? I'd say a nation should look farther the poorest at the expense of the richest, but I don't think taxes work nowadays.. Too easy to swerve.
It is a left wing protectionist idea to ban competition from migrant labour in the markets where the poorest are affected and I have no problem with it at all
"Simply Red's Mick Hucknall once donated money to former Labour PM Tony Blair. Now, according to the Sun, he supports David Cameron and Nick Clegg.
"If I had to, I would vote for the Coalition - I've liked the Coalition," the paper quotes him saying."
This is the sad depths that the BBC has sunk and has to draw on for its focus on the election today. A reference to a bygone pop singer and his preferences. This after banning all mention of the election because it's Easter Sunday, as someone had suddenly become religious in it's ivory towers.
He once donated money to Tony Blair. So, he was a Tory all along. No change there.
Mr. Politics, that raises two more problems: 1) Most banks don't have state aid. 2) Those that do aren't run politically. Do you really want those that do to become politicised and decisions to be taken for political rather than business reasons?
Because banks taking decisions for purely "business reasons" worked out brilliantly, and has nothing to do with how we got into the situation we currently find ourselves in.
Anyway, ignoring what shambolically poor business decisions many of them made in the past, do I believe banking behaviour is so systemically important to the economy and society that the state has a right to intervene to move a fraction of lending away from bidding up the prices of existing houses, and towards expanding the supply of new houses - yes.
"Simply Red's Mick Hucknall once donated money to former Labour PM Tony Blair. Now, according to the Sun, he supports David Cameron and Nick Clegg.
"If I had to, I would vote for the Coalition - I've liked the Coalition," the paper quotes him saying."
This is the sad depths that the BBC has sunk and has to draw on for its focus on the election today. A reference to a bygone pop singer and his preferences. This after banning all mention of the election because it's Easter Sunday, as someone had suddenly become religious in it's ivory towers.
He once donated money to Tony Blair. So, he was a Tory all along. No change there.
@isam - Actually, I just disagree that "it is as simple as that". I think it is very complex, hugely nuanced and requires a lot of thinking through. I am highly suspicious of any party that offers simple solutions, because I do not believe that these exist. One of the problems with the immigration debate in this country (and in others) is that it is conducted in sound-bites. I can see the damage it has done, but I can also see the benefits it has brought. On balance I think the country as a whole has benefited from free movement inside the EU, though I accept that certain sections of it may not have done; my concern is much more about immigration from elsewhere, more specifically from certain parts of elsewhere. Like you, I don't blame anyone from anywhere for coming here, but we do need to look more carefully at who we let in and why.
The big success/failure of the race relations industry and the multiculturalists is to spread the lie that we are all the same. Actually we arent. The difference isnt about frizzy hair, skin colour or different shaped eyes, but about culture and beliefs.
Some cultures and beliefs are so at odds with our own, that short of leaving them at the door when you get here, you are walking in to conflict.
Japan is a bit of a weird case because they don't generally think that assimilation is a thing. This is incredibly frustrating for some long-term foreign residents who want to be accepted as normal members of society, but there's an upside to it if you just want to be able to do what you like.
I have to say this - tongue-in-cheek - but nought to do with you being from Essex? That exhaled:
I am sorry that your new home is as intolerant to you as when the UKBA was to your wife when Fukashima happened: I would like to see you and your family back in the Jerusalem that is England one day (as anywhere is better than France).
@Plato Since this "puritanism" started towards the end of Tony's fist term, it can hardly be described as "new"? When did you decide to stop voting for him?
My God, something for nothing and the "free marketer" still isn't satisfied with the bargain he's getting. Tells you all you need to know about them, really?
I help fund this place (including putting my money foward). Just ask Pulpie and Wee-Timmie!
And your point is caller?
What do you mean by "putting my money forward"? And are you saying you sub OGH?
Hmmm! Sub...?
I donate as required. I bet with others to generate income. I also - in the past - get moderated.
What I do is provide funding bets for this site. My £50 bbl Brent is quite well known. [Sorry Pulpie; and Junior's eagerness for the typo £30 bbl Brent could appear embarrassing when Iran comes back on-stream. ]
So:
I called 'No Triple-dip' recession (as, by definition, a recession is singular), but no bets won,
I called "Gideon" calling the PBR in FY2013 correctly (and thank-you to Ben-M for clarifying this).
I called Brent £/bbl right once and - maybe - twice.
All helps to fund a betting site. My New-Year bets have not been so well-received though (as they look pretty-close-to-the-mark).
And you caller...?
First of all I don't think it's clever to call people "caller" - each to his own, I suppose.
I had no idea that any of those arrangements existed and still don't understand most of them. Except that they're to do with oil futures, which no one with half a head would go near unless it was their day job. If my GE bet comes off, I'll happily send OGH 10%. I've never bet before.
Perhaps OGH should create a "Gold Card" member once their financial support for this place has reach a certain level!
Anyway, it's too late in the day for me to be here...
Seriously quoting the guardian on the economy! Social policy, what teachers, universities or the media particularly the bbc then Ok. But the economy. You might as well ask as schoolkids for all they know
Except Larry Elliott, who should pretty much be chancellor. Although as the only senior guardian editor to oppose endorsing the Euro, and oppose endorsing the Lib Dems, he's pretty much busy walking around the office in an "I told you so" t-shirt these days.
Not necessarily, you could give people three points for being white, or if that was too shocking use approximate proxies for that like points for having ancestors from x, y and z.
Ancestry is a the key element in most countries, notably Israel and India, citizenship and immigration policies, and rightly so. British Zimbabweans have an inherent right to seek and be granted asylum here.
This was part of the Japanese policy to deal with their demographic problems. They realized they needed more people but they were worried a bunch of foreigners wouldn't fit in, so they paid people with Japanese grandparents to come over. Unfortunately it turned out that the Brazailian grandchildren of Japanese people act like Brazilians not Japanese people, and Brazilians are the least culturally-Japanese-like people this side of the Hutt Space planets, and they ended up paying them to go away again.
Even Brazilians of Japanese ancestry were unable to assimilate and were encouraged to go home. The Japanese seem perfectly happy to allow their population to decline until it reaches a sustainable level. The Japanese just like being Japanese at the end of the day, and they will still be around in a hundred years time. Nothing like a good healthy distrust of strangers.
Dunno what you think a "sustainable level" would be, but when push comes to shove I think people will want their pensions paid.
Japan is a bit of a weird case because they don't generally think that assimilation is a thing. This is incredibly frustrating for some long-term foreign residents who want to be accepted as normal members of society, but there's an upside to it if you just want to be able to do what you like.
Perdix said :The Japanese are spending a lot of money on robots which could be used as personal servants. Is a motivation for this a recognition that their population is aging and in decline, and that these robots could be helpful to the elderly?
First of all I don't think it's clever to call people "caller" - each to his own, I suppose.
I had no idea that any of those arrangements existed and still don't understand most of them. Except that they're to do with oil futures, which no one with half a head would go near unless it was their day job. If my GE bet comes off, I'll happily send OGH 10%. I've never bet before.
Perhaps OGH should create a "Gold Card" member once their financial support for this place has reach a certain level!
Anyway, it's too late in the day for me to be here...
The caller thing is somewhat misty I believe. Summinck about TGBAU (DYOR). No probs:
@isam - Actually, I just disagree that "it is as simple as that". I think it is very complex, hugely nuanced and requires a lot of thinking through. I am highly suspicious of any party that offers simple solutions, because I do not believe that these exist. One of the problems with the immigration debate in this country (and in others) is that it is conducted in sound-bites. I can see the damage it has done, but I can also see the benefits it has brought. On balance I think the country as a whole has benefited from free movement inside the EU, though I accept that certain sections of it may not have done; my concern is much more about immigration from elsewhere, more specifically from certain parts of elsewhere. Like you, I don't blame anyone from anywhere for coming here, but we do need to look more carefully at who we let in and why.
Fair enough
I agree that it is possible the country as benefited as a whole but that isn't the way if measure it
If I won the lottery the day after 20 of my friends went bankrupt we would be financially better off cumulatively. Only if I shared it equally would we all be better off
It is a utilitarian argument. What is the rule? I'd say a nation should look farther the poorest at the expense of the richest, but I don't think taxes work nowadays.. Too easy to swerve.
It is a left wing protectionist idea to ban competition from migrant labour in the markets where the poorest are affected and I have no problem with it at all
Again, fair enough. When we discuss immigration we need to go beyond the idea that it is the out of touch metropolitan elite v knuckle-dragging racists. Once we get into it, it is clear that there is nuance and complexity. The slogans that both sides shout at each other cloud that, so making proper debate almost impossible. As I say, on the whole I don't think EU immigration is a net lose for us; on the other hand, immigration from some other parts of the world does need to be much more strictly controlled and maybe should have been in the past. But alongside that, we probably need to be doing a lot more to make emigration from these countries much less desirable than it currently is. Like it or not, our history has created a certain level of obligation.
No? You think points systems are all sweetness and light? Canada has a points system. Have you seen its numbers of immigrants. A country with a far smaller population nthan the UK has about 250,000 immigrants a year. It has a large immigrant p
Not necessarily, you could give people three points for being white, or if that was too shocking use approximate proxies for that like points for having ancestors from x, y and z.
Ancestry is a the key element in most countries, notably Israel and India, citizenship and immigration policies, and rightly so. British Zimbabweans have an inherent right to seek and be granted asylum here.
This was part of the Japanese policy to deal with their demographic problems. They realized they needed more people but they were worried a bunch of foreigners wouldn't fit in, so they paid people with Japanese grandparents to come over. Unfortunately it turned out that the Brazailian grandchildren of Japanese people act like Brazilians not Japanese people, and Brazilians are the least culturally-Japanese-like people this side of the Hutt Space planets, and they ended up paying them to go away again.
Even Brazilians of Japanese ancestry were unable to assimilate and were encouraged to go home. The Japanese seem perfectly happy to allow their population to decline until it reaches a sustainable level. The Japanese just like being Japanese at the end of the day, and they will still be around in a hundred years time. Nothing like a good healthy distrust of strangers.
Dunno what you think a "sustainable level" would be, but when push comes to shove I think people will want their pensions paid.
Japan is a bit of a weird case because they don't generally think that assimilation is a thing. This is incredibly frustrating for some long-term foreign residents who want to be accepted as normal members of society, but there's an upside to it if you just want to be able to do what you like.
I think Japanese pensions will be fine, ours not so much.
Was reading someone arguing that they are now through the worst of their demographic issues anyway now. They didn't go for short-term fixes and can look forward to sustaining their high standard of living, just with a bit more space to enjoy it.
The detail of today's YouGov reveals that the Tories had 3 more voters than Labour in this survey. Actual vote shares were Con 33.6% Lab 33.4%. Rounding can be so helpful!
Not necessarily, you could give people three points for being white, or if that was too shocking use approximate proxies for that like points for having ancestors from x, y and z.
Ancestry is a the key element in most countries, notably Israel and India, citizenship and immigration policies, and rightly so. British Zimbabweans have an inherent right to seek and be granted asylum here.
This was part of the Japanese policy to deal with their demographic problems. They realized they needed more people but they were worried a bunch of foreigners wouldn't fit in, so they paid people with Japanese grandparents to come over. Unfortunately it turned out that the Brazailian grandchildren of Japanese people act like Brazilians not Japanese people, and Brazilians are the least culturally-Japanese-like people this side of the Hutt Space planets, and they ended up paying them to go away again.
Even Brazilians of Japanese ancestry were unable to assimilate and were encouraged to go home. The Japanese seem perfectly happy to allow their population to decline until it reaches a sustainable level. The Japanese just like being Japanese at the end of the day, and they will still be around in a hundred years time. Nothing like a good healthy distrust of strangers.
Dunno what you think a "sustainable level" would be, but when push comes to shove I think people will want their pensions paid.
Japan is a bit of a weird case because they don't generally think that assimilation is a thing. This is incredibly frustrating for some long-term foreign residents who want to be accepted as normal members of society, but there's an upside to it if you just want to be able to do what you like.
Perdix said :The Japanese are spending a lot of money on robots which could be used as personal servants. Is a motivation for this a recognition that their population is aging and in decline, and that these robots could be helpful to the elderly?
@isam - Actually, I just disagree that "it is as simple as that". I think it is very complex, hugely nuanced and requires a lot of thinking through. I am highly suspicious of any party that offers simple solutions, because I do not believe that these exist. One of the problems with the immigration debate in this country (and in others) is that it is conducted in sound-bites. I can see the damage it has done, but I can also see the benefits it has brought. On balance I think the country as a whole has benefited from free movement inside the EU, though I accept that certain sections of it may not have done; my concern is much more about immigration from elsewhere, more specifically from certain parts of elsewhere. Like you, I don't blame anyone from anywhere for coming here, but we do need to look more carefully at who we let in and why.
Fair enough
I agree that it is possible the country as benefited as a whole but that isn't the way if measure it
If I won the lottery the day after 20 of my friends went bankrupt we would be financially better off cumulatively. Only if I shared it equally would we all be better off
It is a utilitarian argument. What is the rule? I'd say a nation should look farther the poorest at the expense of the richest, but I don't think taxes work nowadays.. Too easy to swerve.
It is a left wing protectionist idea to ban competition from migrant labour in the markets where the poorest are affected and I have no problem with it at all
Again, fair enough. When we discuss immigration we need to go beyond the idea that it is the out of touch metropolitan elite v knuckle-dragging racists. Once we get into it, it is clear that there is nuance and complexity. The slogans that both sides shout at each other cloud that, so making proper debate almost impossible. As I say, on the whole I don't think EU immigration is a net lose for us; on the other hand, immigration from some other parts of the world does need to be much more strictly controlled and maybe should have been in the past. But alongside that, we probably need to be doing a lot more to make emigration from these countries much less desirable than it currently is. Like it or not, our history has created a certain level of obligation.
Does not the nuance need to apply EU immigration also? Even if we accept free movement of labour, it makes sense to at least limit those unemployed or without permanent jobs as being outside that, and also convicted criminals.
"Simply Red's Mick Hucknall once donated money to former Labour PM Tony Blair. Now, according to the Sun, he supports David Cameron and Nick Clegg.
"If I had to, I would vote for the Coalition - I've liked the Coalition," the paper quotes him saying."
This is the sad depths that the BBC has sunk and has to draw on for its focus on the election today. A reference to a bygone pop singer and his preferences. This after banning all mention of the election because it's Easter Sunday, as someone had suddenly become religious in it's ivory towers.
It is important in the same way during the nineties people known as supporters of the Conservatives got seduced into supporting Blair. Leftie entertainer known for leftie things over his long career now thinks the party he has long supported are not the best people to run the country.
This is exactly the position that many of our fellow (and loyal) British subjects in the north of Great Britain have reached themselves.
The 'miliband is not up to it and his policies dont add up' is the single greatest meme that the Conservatives can push. This is a one more drip in the ocean of that.
Perdix said :The Japanese are spending a lot of money on robots which could be used as personal servants. Is a motivation for this a recognition that their population is aging and in decline, and that these robots could be helpful to the elderly?
I think that's part of it. Also that there are a lot of companies that would be doing robotics anyhow, and being Japan they like making cute anthropomorphic ones to show off.
The government is actually trying to expand immigration as well, albeit a bit clumsily and cluelessly.
"Simply Red's Mick Hucknall once donated money to former Labour PM Tony Blair. Now, according to the Sun, he supports David Cameron and Nick Clegg.
"If I had to, I would vote for the Coalition - I've liked the Coalition," the paper quotes him saying."
This is the sad depths that the BBC has sunk and has to draw on for its focus on the election today. A reference to a bygone pop singer and his preferences. This after banning all mention of the election because it's Easter Sunday, as someone had suddenly become religious in it's ivory towers.
Yes, it's not as though we've ever had reports of celebrities - current and has-beens - and their political views until now. Nor is it as though it's only a minor minor comment among weeks and weeks of commentry which is spread more widely than ever before. No no, it's an egregious example of neverbefore seen depths. Of course.
The detail of today's YouGov reveals that the Tories had 3 more voters than Labour in this survey. Actual vote shares were Con 33.6% Lab 33.4%. Rounding can be so helpful!
Rounding just as often works against the Conservatives as in their favour.
Mr. Politics, that raises two more problems: 1) Most banks don't have state aid. 2) Those that do aren't run politically. Do you really want those that do to become politicised and decisions to be taken for political rather than business reasons?
Because banks taking decisions for purely "business reasons" worked out brilliantly, and has nothing to do with how we got into the situation we currently find ourselves in.
Anyway, ignoring what shambolically poor business decisions many of them made in the past, do I believe banking behaviour is so systemically important to the economy and society that the state has a right to intervene to move a fraction of lending away from bidding up the prices of existing houses, and towards expanding the supply of new houses - yes.
Banks operate in a regulated environment. For instance they have to keep a regulated amount of capital and reserves. They are companies and are subject to corporate regulation.
I seem to remember Lloyds making a shocking business decision after being encouraged to do so by Gordon Brown.
Not necessarily, you could give people three points for being white, or if that was too shocking use approximate proxies for that like points for having ancestors from x, y and z.
Ancestry is a the key element in most countries, notably Israel and India, citizenship and immigration policies, and rightly so. British Zimbabweans have an inherent right to seek and be granted asylum here.
This was part of the Japanese policy to deal with their demographic problems. They realized they needed more people but they were worried a bunch of foreigners wouldn't fit in, so they paid people with Japanese grandparents to come over. Unfortunately it turned out that the Brazailian grandchildren of Japanese people act like Brazilians not Japanese people, and Brazilians are the least culturally-Japanese-like people this side of the Hutt Space planets, and they ended up paying them to go away again.
Even Brazilians of Japanese ancestry were unable to assimilate and were encouraged to go home. The Japanese seem perfectly happy to allow their population to decline until it reaches a sustainable level. The Japanese just like being Japanese at the end of the day, and they will still be around in a hundred years time. Nothing like a good healthy distrust of strangers.
Dunno what you think a "sustainable level" would be, but when push comes to shove I think people will want their pensions paid.
Japan is a bit of a weird case because they don't generally think that assimilation is a thing. This is incredibly frustrating for some long-term foreign residents who want to be accepted as normal members of society, but there's an upside to it if you just want to be able to do what you like.
I think Japanese pensions will be fine, ours not so much.
Was reading someone arguing that they are now through the worst of their demographic issues anyway now. They didn't go for short-term fixes and can look forward to sustaining their high standard of living, just with a bit more space to enjoy it.
Dunno what you were reading - maybe Eamonn Fingleton who thinks the shitty economy is a cunning trick to deceive the west - but nah, demography is still horrible, and the pensions system is disastrous.
As for more space, the countryside is still depopulating and the population of Tokyo is still growing, so people are voting with their feet against having more of that.
"Simply Red's Mick Hucknall once donated money to former Labour PM Tony Blair. Now, according to the Sun, he supports David Cameron and Nick Clegg.
"If I had to, I would vote for the Coalition - I've liked the Coalition," the paper quotes him saying."
This is the sad depths that the BBC has sunk and has to draw on for its focus on the election today. A reference to a bygone pop singer and his preferences. This after banning all mention of the election because it's Easter Sunday, as someone had suddenly become religious in it's ivory towers.
Yes, it's not as though we've ever had reports of celebrities - current and has-beens - and their political views until now. Nor is it as though it's only a minor minor comment among weeks and weeks of commentry which is spread more widely than ever before. No no, it's an egregious example of neverbefore seen depths. Of course.
So what was the BBC purpose of banning the showing of Marr on Sunday and The Weekly Politics because it's Easter Sunday? And please don't tell me the BBC has re-converted en mass. back to christianity.
The detail of today's YouGov reveals that the Tories had 3 more voters than Labour in this survey. Actual vote shares were Con 33.6% Lab 33.4%. Rounding can be so helpful!
There were actually 58 more Labour voters in this survey than Conservative . The weightings look rather over the top in changing that to a Conservative lead of 3 .
The detail of today's YouGov reveals that the Tories had 3 more voters than Labour in this survey. Actual vote shares were Con 33.6% Lab 33.4%. Rounding can be so helpful!
Just to say that this thread is a great read - sensible and nuanced points being made by all sides of what is a complicated issue on many fronts. Credit to everyone.
It's a shame that the politicians feel the need to condense everything down to a soundbite for the 10pm news.
Just to say that this thread is a great read - sensible and nuanced points being made by all sides of what is a complicated issue on many fronts. Credit to everyone.
It's a shame that the politicians feel the need to condense everything down to a soundbite for the 10pm news.
I blame that on the John Humphreys/Jeremy Paxman style of interviewing that tries to boil everything down to black and white right and wrong. Combine that with the interviewers complete inability to cope if the subject goes off topic away from the topic the interviewer has been briefed about and you have a recipe for completely destroying nuance.
Another thought - to Mike Smithson, TSE, rcs1000 and pbmoderator - Happy Easter to you, any chance of seeing the Donate button back up on the site? Just a hunch but maybe the next couple of months' hosting bills might be somewhat higher than usual. There's several new commenters and long time lurkers (like me) who would be happy to throw a few quid your way for this excellent site, especially when May's winnings get paid out!!
Patrick Robert "Pat" Reid, MBE, MC (13 November 1910 – 22 May 1990) was a British Army officer and historical author of non-fiction. As a British prisoner of war during the Second World War, he was held captive at Colditz Castle when it was designated Oflag IV-C. Reid was one of the few to escape from Colditz, crossing the border into neutral Switzerland in late 1942. After the war Reid was a diplomat and administrator before eventually returning to his pre-war career in civil engineering. He also wrote about his experiences in two best-selling books, which became the basis of a film, TV series and even a board game.">Patrick Robert "Pat" Reid, MBE, MC (13 November 1910 – 22 May 1990) was a British Army officer and historical author of non-fiction. As a British prisoner of war during the Second World War, he was held captive at Colditz Castle when it was designated Oflag IV-C. Reid was one of the few to escape from Colditz, crossing the border into neutral Switzerland in late 1942. After the war Reid was a diplomat and administrator before eventually returning to his pre-war career in civil engineering. He also wrote about his experiences in two best-selling books, which became the basis of a film, TV series and even a board game.
"Simply Red's Mick Hucknall once donated money to former Labour PM Tony Blair. Now, according to the Sun, he supports David Cameron and Nick Clegg.
"If I had to, I would vote for the Coalition - I've liked the Coalition," the paper quotes him saying."
This is the sad depths that the BBC has sunk and has to draw on for its focus on the election today. A reference to a bygone pop singer and his preferences. This after banning all mention of the election because it's Easter Sunday, as someone had suddenly become religious in it's ivory towers.
He once donated money to Tony Blair. So, he was a Tory all along. No change there.
Can you quote me or even recall me supporting Bliar ? He should be seen in only one place - The Hague !
@isam - Actually, I just disagree that "it is as simple as that". I think it is very complex, hugely nuanced and requires a lot of thinking through. I am highly suspicious of any party that offers simple solutions, because I do not believe that these exist. One of the problems with the immigration debate in this country (and in others) is that it is conducted in sound-bites. I can see the damage it has done, but I can also see the benefits it has brought. On balance I think the country as a whole has benefited from free movement inside the EU, though I accept that certain sections of it may not have done; my concern is much more about immigration from elsewhere, more specifically from certain parts of elsewhere. Like you, I don't blame anyone from anywhere for coming here, but we do need to look more carefully at who we let in and why.
Fair enough
I agree that it is possible the country as benefited as a whole but that isn't the way if measure it
If I won the lottery the day after 20 of my friends went bankrupt we would be financially better off cumulatively. Only if I shared it equally would we all be better off
It is a utilitarian argument. What is the rule? I'd say a nation should look farther the poorest at the expense of the richest, but I don't think taxes work nowadays.. Too easy to swerve.
It is a left wing protectionist idea to ban competition from migrant labour in the markets where the poorest are affected and I have no problem with it at all
The problem is that your belief is based on a false premise.
Wages are not diminished because of migrants. Wages are diminished because there is no effective measure in place to protect wages against the inevitable Marxian erosion which is an unavoidable consequence of all capitalist economies in the long term.
Smart countries protect through legislation (some better than others because this will not be without consequences), The wealthy will create spurious arguments based on kernels of truth to avoid this. Because inherited wealth is not affected by the diminution of wages (in fact it is enhanced).
There is a long and complex argument as to why simply reducing the Supply of Labour in a country does not increase wages (too long to go into here). The wage diminution is inevitable and has nothing to do with migrants.
@isam - Actually, I just disagree that "it is as simple as that". I think it is very complex, hugely nuanced and requires a lot of thinking through. I am highly suspicious of any party that offers simple solutions, because I do not believe that these exist. One of the problems with the immigration debate in this country (and in others) is that it is conducted in sound-bites. I can see the damage it has done, but I can also see the benefits it has brought. On balance I think the country as a whole has benefited from free movement inside the EU, though I accept that certain sections of it may not have done; my concern is much more about immigration from elsewhere, more specifically from certain parts of elsewhere. Like you, I don't blame anyone from anywhere for coming here, but we do need to look more carefully at who we let in and why.
Fair enough
I agree that it is possible the country as benefited as a whole but that isn't the way if measure it
If I won the lottery the day after 20 of my friends went bankrupt we would be financially better off cumulatively. Only if I shared it equally would we all be better off
It is a utilitarian argument. What is the rule? I'd say a nation should look farther the poorest at the expense of the richest, but I don't think taxes work nowadays.. Too easy to swerve.
It is a left wing protectionist idea to ban competition from migrant labour in the markets where the poorest are affected and I have no problem with it at all
The problem is that your belief is based on a false premise.
Wages are not diminished because of migrants. Wages are diminished because there is no effective measure in place to protect wages against the inevitable Marxian erosion which is an unavoidable consequence of all capitalist economies in the long term.
Smart countries protect through legislation (some better than others because this will not be without consequences), The wealthy will create spurious arguments based on kernels of truth to avoid this. Because inherited wealth is not affected by the diminution of wages (in fact it is enhanced).
There is a long and complex argument as to why simply reducing the Supply of Labour in a country does not increase wages (too long to go into here). The wage diminution is inevitable and has nothing to do with migrants.
Last night Matthew Goodwin tweeted three reasons why this South Thanet poll is flawed.. he seems to have deleted the tweets though
!) UKIP were 5pts ahead in the 1st question 2) People were asked to "think about current MP" in the 2nd question.. Current MP is standing down 3) The final question was framed "if it were a legal obligation to vote...."
We can see that both Labour and UKIP disproportionately drawing voters from people who didn't vote for the three major parties in 2010 (91% of voters). UKIP of course are going draw on the 3% they got last time so they have a net addition of 10 points from 2010 voters of the three major parties. So that leaves Labour getting votes from people who didn't turn up last time or were not eligible (people aged 23 or younger or immigrants). It's not a group of voters I would want to rely on.
I would like YouGov to add a couple of columns to their 2010 vote, "DNV" and "some other party". I don't see where Labour's 2.5% boost has come from other than DNV, they surely haven't squeezed the Nationalists or the Greens, both of which have a higher VI than they scored in 2010.
It is also not the first time I have noticed Labour scoring disproportionately well 2010 DNVs, it is a pattern that I have noticed a lot with YouGov.
We can see that both Labour and UKIP disproportionately drawing voters from people who didn't vote for the three major parties in 2010 (91% of voters). UKIP of course are going draw on the 3% they got last time so they have a net addition of 10 points from 2010 voters of the three major parties. So that leaves Labour getting votes from people who didn't turn up last time or were not eligible (people aged 23 or younger or immigrants). It's not a group of voters I would want to rely on.
I would like YouGov to add a couple of columns to their 2010 vote, "DNV" and "some other party". I don't see where Labour's 2.5% boost has come from other than DNV, they surely haven't squeezed the Nationalists or the Greens, both of which have a higher VI than they scored in 2010.
Last night Matthew Goodwin tweeted three reasons why this South Thanet poll is flawed.. he seems to have deleted the tweets though
!) UKIP were 5pts ahead in the 1st question 2) People were asked to "think about current MP" in the 2nd question.. Current MP is standing down 3) The final question was framed "if it were a legal obligation to vote...."
ComRes have been polling in this way for nearly ten years and have been asking questions in the form they have. I agree the VI question could have been better. The wording
Please now think specifically about your own constituency of South Thanet, the issues it faces, the local MP and the different candidates. Who do you think you will vote for in the General Election on May 7th?
On a general point I'm finding the incessant complaints from UKIP about anything and everything really rather tiresome. All they do is moan. Grow up.
We can see that both Labour and UKIP disproportionately drawing voters from people who didn't vote for the three major parties in 2010 (91% of voters). UKIP of course are going draw on the 3% they got last time so they have a net addition of 10 points from 2010 voters of the three major parties. So that leaves Labour getting votes from people who didn't turn up last time or were not eligible (people aged 23 or younger or immigrants). It's not a group of voters I would want to rely on.
I would like YouGov to add a couple of columns to their 2010 vote, "DNV" and "some other party". I don't see where Labour's 2.5% boost has come from other than DNV, they surely haven't squeezed the Nationalists or the Greens, both of which have a higher VI than they scored in 2010.
It is also not the first time I have noticed Labour scoring disproportionately well 2010 DNVs, it is a pattern that I have noticed a lot with YouGov.
I've long suspected that Labour will slightly underperform versus polling and tories will slightly overperform and this is as good an analysis on why this might happen as I have seen.
This may also reflect the odds on OM being completely off kilter. If polling in the last week is something like 37/34 Con - I will be leaning toward a small con majority.
Last night Matthew Goodwin tweeted three reasons why this South Thanet poll is flawed.. he seems to have deleted the tweets though
!) UKIP were 5pts ahead in the 1st question 2) People were asked to "think about current MP" in the 2nd question.. Current MP is standing down 3) The final question was framed "if it were a legal obligation to vote...."
ComRes have been polling in this way for nearly ten years and have been asking questions in the form they have. I agree the VI question could have been better. The wording
Please now think specifically about your own constituency of South Thanet, the issues it faces, the local MP and the different candidates. Who do you think you will vote for in the General Election on May 7th?
On a general point I'm finding the incessant complaints from UKIP about anything and everything really rather tiresome. All they do is moan. Grow up.
Why are you addressing that at me?! I haven't even seen the poll and don't claim to be an expert at reading them, just passing on related info from someone, not a kipper, who knows his stuff
Don't worry, once Farage wins this seat comfortably all will be good
I am happy enough, had a record three months punting and UKIP are about to do the best they ever have at a GE
Scotland - wet England/Wales - periods of showery rain and dryer interludes.
Temps Cool - 10C-12C
That means sweltering heat wave; 90 in the shade. Bring it on, cold lemonade for all.
Chances of any forecast verifying at this range is below 1% and will remain so until around +300 hours. These days +120/+144 is pretty reliable in terms of general pattern, but often we still need to wait until 24/48 hours before an event for the specifics to be nailed.
We can see that both Labour and UKIP disproportionately drawing voters from people who didn't vote for the three major parties in 2010 (91% of voters). UKIP of course are going draw on the 3% they got last time so they have a net addition of 10 points from 2010 voters of the three major parties. So that leaves Labour getting votes from people who didn't turn up last time or were not eligible (people aged 23 or younger or immigrants). It's not a group of voters I would want to rely on.
It's a fairly standard pattern at every election that Labour gets more young voters and the Conservative lose more elderly voters to Pearly Gates constituency, balanced by some voters getting more conservative as they get older. No more so than usual now, I think. What is a bit different is that the last election did have quite a few basically Labour voters who either saw the Government as still stained by Iraq or didn't like Gordon: they generally abstained, but have now nearly all come back. They're highly political people and certainly not likely to miss the election.
Just to say that this thread is a great read - sensible and nuanced points being made by all sides of what is a complicated issue on many fronts. Credit to everyone.
It's a shame that the politicians feel the need to condense everything down to a soundbite for the 10pm news.
I blame that on the John Humphreys/Jeremy Paxman style of interviewing that tries to boil everything down to black and white right and wrong. Combine that with the interviewers complete inability to cope if the subject goes off topic away from the topic the interviewer has been briefed about and you have a recipe for completely destroying nuance.
Patrick Robert "Pat" Reid, MBE, MC (13 November 1910 – 22 May 1990) was a British Army officer and historical author of non-fiction. As a British prisoner of war during the Second World War, he was held captive at Colditz Castle when it was designated Oflag IV-C. Reid was one of the few to escape from Colditz, crossing the border into neutral Switzerland in late 1942. After the war Reid was a diplomat and administrator before eventually returning to his pre-war career in civil engineering. He also wrote about his experiences in two best-selling books, which became the basis of a film, TV series and even a board game.">Patrick Robert "Pat" Reid, MBE, MC (13 November 1910 – 22 May 1990) was a British Army officer and historical author of non-fiction. As a British prisoner of war during the Second World War, he was held captive at Colditz Castle when it was designated Oflag IV-C. Reid was one of the few to escape from Colditz, crossing the border into neutral Switzerland in late 1942. After the war Reid was a diplomat and administrator before eventually returning to his pre-war career in civil engineering. He also wrote about his experiences in two best-selling books, which became the basis of a film, TV series and even a board game.
You should read the Colditz story and the latter days at Colditz written by Pat Reid. Brilliant books.
It was also the subject of a TV series in the 70's but by far the best was the 1957 film staring John Mills and Eric Portman.
The Germans were never going to beat these prisoners or Pat Reid the first Britisher to score a " home run" from colditz castle
We can see that both Labour and UKIP disproportionately drawing voters from people who didn't vote for the three major parties in 2010 (91% of voters). UKIP of course are going draw on the 3% they got last time so they have a net addition of 10 points from 2010 voters of the three major parties. So that leaves Labour getting votes from people who didn't turn up last time or were not eligible (people aged 23 or younger or immigrants). It's not a group of voters I would want to rely on.
It's a fairly standard pattern at every election that Labour gets more young voters and the Conservative lose more elderly voters to Pearly Gates constituency, balanced by some voters getting more conservative as they get older. No more so than usual now, I think. What is a bit different is that the last election did have quite a few basically Labour voters who either saw the Government as still stained by Iraq or didn't like Gordon: they generally abstained, but have now nearly all come back. They're highly political people and certainly not likely to miss the election.
As I said, it's not a group of voters on which I would want to put my election hopes. Honestly, what you have posted sounds like a poor rationalisation. Labour haven't won over enough of their own 2010 VI and floating voters who went for the Cons last time and it shows in these figures.
We can see that both Labour and UKIP disproportionately drawing voters from people who didn't vote for the three major parties in 2010 (91% of voters). UKIP of course are going draw on the 3% they got last time so they have a net addition of 10 points from 2010 voters of the three major parties. So that leaves Labour getting votes from people who didn't turn up last time or were not eligible (people aged 23 or younger or immigrants). It's not a group of voters I would want to rely on.
It's a fairly standard pattern at every election that Labour gets more young voters and the Conservative lose more elderly voters to Pearly Gates constituency, balanced by some voters getting more conservative as they get older. No more so than usual now, I think. What is a bit different is that the last election did have quite a few basically Labour voters who either saw the Government as still stained by Iraq or didn't like Gordon: they generally abstained, but have now nearly all come back. They're highly political people and certainly not likely to miss the election.
Just to say that this thread is a great read - sensible and nuanced points being made by all sides of what is a complicated issue on many fronts. Credit to everyone.
It's a shame that the politicians feel the need to condense everything down to a soundbite for the 10pm news.
I blame that on the John Humphreys/Jeremy Paxman style of interviewing that tries to boil everything down to black and white right and wrong. Combine that with the interviewers complete inability to cope if the subject goes off topic away from the topic the interviewer has been briefed about and you have a recipe for completely destroying nuance.
*Like* to both Sandpit and Alistair.
Nick - are you saying that Ed is less of an electoral liability to Labour than Gordon was?
We can see that both Labour and UKIP disproportionately drawing voters from people who didn't vote for the three major parties in 2010 (91% of voters). UKIP of course are going draw on the 3% they got last time so they have a net addition of 10 points from 2010 voters of the three major parties. So that leaves Labour getting votes from people who didn't turn up last time or were not eligible (people aged 23 or younger or immigrants). It's not a group of voters I would want to rely on.
I would like YouGov to add a couple of columns to their 2010 vote, "DNV" and "some other party". I don't see where Labour's 2.5% boost has come from other than DNV, they surely haven't squeezed the Nationalists or the Greens, both of which have a higher VI than they scored in 2010.
It is also not the first time I have noticed Labour scoring disproportionately well 2010 DNVs, it is a pattern that I have noticed a lot with YouGov.
I've long suspected that Labour will slightly underperform versus polling and tories will slightly overperform and this is as good an analysis on why this might happen as I have seen.
This may also reflect the odds on OM being completely off kilter. If polling in the last week is something like 37/34 Con - I will be leaning toward a small con majority.
Canvassing in a super marginal con lab northern english constituency, the numbers are close to identical to 2010 for con, if anything a slight mild improvement. Canvassing carried out by experienced team, more or less same as 2010 team.
The unknown doesnt seem to be where the 2010 con vote will go, it will go where it went last time, whats in question, is where the libdem vote will fall, and how UKIP keep coming up in our records, but not at our expense.
"Simply Red's Mick Hucknall once donated money to former Labour PM Tony Blair. Now, according to the Sun, he supports David Cameron and Nick Clegg.
"If I had to, I would vote for the Coalition - I've liked the Coalition," the paper quotes him saying."
This is the sad depths that the BBC has sunk and has to draw on for its focus on the election today. A reference to a bygone pop singer and his preferences. This after banning all mention of the election because it's Easter Sunday, as someone had suddenly become religious in it's ivory towers.
He once donated money to Tony Blair. So, he was a Tory all along. No change there.
Can you quote me or even recall me supporting Bliar ? He should be seen in only one place - The Hague !
They have millionaire holiday homes and Sandy beaches in The Hague?
Japan has a phenomenon called 'herbivore men' or young males who have completely dropped out of work, study, dating and marriage.
Its reported to be a big problem for them.
We have far higher unemployment. The Japanese will be living in I Robot, we will be living in Elysium.
Japan is falling to pieces under the surface. It runs one of the highest government deficits in the world, and its outstanding government debt is around 250% of GDP - so almost 3x the level of the UK or Spain.
Ever year there are fewer Japanese people of working age, and an ever greater number of retirees and aged people. The dependency ratio worsens every year, therefore deepening the malaise. Outside metropolitan Tokyo, many villages and prefectures are literally dying.
Robots might help Japan's manufacturing remain (vaguely) competitive, but they won't look after old people and wipe their bottoms.
And because Japan is literally dying on its feet, many of its most talented people leave for the United States or Europe every year. Just as with that other dying behemoth, Russia, the brightest and the best head for the exits.
Slightly O/T, but how do people think the challengers debate will go, having seen the first one.
Do we think that the left leaning 4 will gang together and blame everything on the coalition whilst at the same time bullying Nigel (somewhat playing into his hands)
Or, will they all just rip chunks from one another!
@isam - Actually, I just disagree that "it is as simple as that". I think it is very complex, hugely nuanced and requires a lot of thinking through. I am highly suspicious of any party that offers simple solutions, because I do not believe that these exist. One of the problems with the immigration debate in this country (and in others) is that it is conducted in sound-bites. I can see the damage it has done, but I can also see the benefits it has brought. On balance I think the country as a whole has benefited from free movement inside the EU, though I accept that certain sections of it may not have done; my concern is much more about immigration from elsewhere, more specifically from certain parts of elsewhere. Like you, I don't blame anyone from anywhere for coming here, but we do need to look more carefully at who we let in and why.
Fair enough
I agree that it is possible the country as benefited as a whole but that isn't the way if measure it
If I won the lottery the day after 20 of my friends went bankrupt we would be financially better off cumulatively. Only if I shared it equally would we all be better off
It is a utilitarian argument. What is the rule? I'd say a nation should look farther the poorest at the expense of the richest, but I don't think taxes work nowadays.. Too easy to swerve.
It is a left wing protectionist idea to ban competition from migrant labour in the markets where the poorest are affected and I have no problem with it at all
The problem is that your belief is based on a false premise.
Wages are not diminished because of migrants. Wages are diminished because there is no effective measure in place to protect wages against the inevitable Marxian erosion which is an unavoidable consequence of all capitalist economies in the long term.
Smart countries protect through legislation (some better than others because this will not be without consequences), The wealthy will create spurious arguments based on kernels of truth to avoid this. Because inherited wealth is not affected by the diminution of wages (in fact it is enhanced).
There is a long and complex argument as to why simply reducing the Supply of Labour in a country does not increase wages (too long to go into here). The wage diminution is inevitable and has nothing to do with migrants.
Yet the average joe in every capitalist country keeps getting richer and richer, and richer and richer, and richer and richer.
Theres a great little website for people who believe in such inevitable rubbish, its called housepricecrash.co.uk They have lots of pretty graphs and things,
Slightly O/T, but how do people think the challengers debate will go, having seen the first one.
Do we think that the left leaning 4 will gang together and blame everything on the coalition whilst at the same time bullying Nigel (somewhat playing into his hands)
Or, will they all just rip chunks from one another!
Farage has a chance to say he is the only person representing English people that aren't left wing.. Cameron and Clegg cant even be bothered to turn up
Japan has a phenomenon called 'herbivore men' or young males who have completely dropped out of work, study, dating and marriage.
Its reported to be a big problem for them.
We have far higher unemployment. The Japanese will be living in I Robot, we will be living in Elysium.
Japan is falling to pieces under the surface. It runs one of the highest government deficits in the world, and its outstanding government debt is around 250% of GDP - so almost 3x the level of the UK or Spain.
Ever year there are fewer Japanese people of working age, and an ever greater number of retirees and aged people. The dependency ratio worsens every year, therefore deepening the malaise. Outside metropolitan Tokyo, many villages and prefectures are literally dying.
Robots might help Japan's manufacturing remain (vaguely) competitive, but they won't look after old people and wipe their bottoms.
And because Japan is literally dying on its feet, many of its most talented people leave for the United States or Europe every year. Just as with that other dying behemoth, Russia, the brightest and the best head for the exits.
Japan is one of the few rich countries, probably the only one, where illegal labour hourly rates are close the legal hourly rates. The operative word is stagnant. Abe has done yet another reflation . Can the soufflé rise twice ? or many times ?
Slightly O/T, but how do people think the challengers debate will go, having seen the first one.
Do we think that the left leaning 4 will gang together and blame everything on the coalition whilst at the same time bullying Nigel (somewhat playing into his hands)
Or, will they all just rip chunks from one another!
I think it has to be everyone vs Ed, when it comes down to it they all want his votes. Sure they might gee up their base a bit by kicking Nige, but really, who is going to change their vote because they prefer a different leaders style of kicking the kippers. This is going to be the Greens and the Nationalists flaunting their anti-austerity credentials and essentially telling the votes that their Magic Money Tree is bigger than Ed's. If Nige has any sense he will sit back looking avuncular and leave them to it, with just the odd populist comment to firm up his red kipper vote.
Japan has a phenomenon called 'herbivore men' or young males who have completely dropped out of work, study, dating and marriage.
Its reported to be a big problem for them.
We have far higher unemployment. The Japanese will be living in I Robot, we will be living in Elysium.
Japan is falling to pieces under the surface. It runs one of the highest government deficits in the world, and its outstanding government debt is around 250% of GDP - so almost 3x the level of the UK or Spain.
Ever year there are fewer Japanese people of working age, and an ever greater number of retirees and aged people. The dependency ratio worsens every year, therefore deepening the malaise. Outside metropolitan Tokyo, many villages and prefectures are literally dying.
Robots might help Japan's manufacturing remain (vaguely) competitive, but they won't look after old people and wipe their bottoms.
And because Japan is literally dying on its feet, many of its most talented people leave for the United States or Europe every year. Just as with that other dying behemoth, Russia, the brightest and the best head for the exits.
Do you have numbers on the last paragraph? It seems like something that you could find anecdotal comments for on every country.
A friend of mine owned the game when I was kid - it was actually pretty good as I remember!
There was a documentary on this where they built the glider in the same way and then launched it off the roof as was originally planned. The glider was remotely controlled with two dummy pilots
'Parties in terminal decline' would make it clearer that you are referring to the politicians who market themselves as blue and red variants of Team Guardianista.
A friend of mine owned the game when I was kid - it was actually pretty good as I remember!
I had the game - and sold it a few years ago on Ebay for a few quid. There seems to be a demand for it, whether from board game fans or neo-nazis I'm not sure.
A friend of mine owned the game when I was kid - it was actually pretty good as I remember!
Cool glider I should head to the IWM next time I'm in London. Funny that I learned to fly in the similar but German k8 http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/2/26/Schleicher_K_8b_D-5727.jpg Germany now make almost all of the world's best gliders, they started after WWII when they were banned by international treaty from making powered aeroplanes.
I am often struck by the similarities between Marxism and libertarianism. Libertarians would no doubt applaud Stalin's abandonment of his own son Yakov when he refused to trade prisoners so as not to show favouritism.
We live in a world where violence -- perpetrating it and preventing it -- is the fundamental fact that social and political organization must deal with. Thus, all property rights come out of the barrel of a gun. Once you realize that, the reason why we prefer the welfare of our fellow citizens to that of non-citizens is (to get all reductionist):
Japan has a phenomenon called 'herbivore men' or young males who have completely dropped out of work, study, dating and marriage.
Its reported to be a big problem for them.
We have far higher unemployment. The Japanese will be living in I Robot, we will be living in Elysium.
Japan is falling to pieces under the surface. It runs one of the highest government deficits in the world, and its outstanding government debt is around 250% of GDP - so almost 3x the level of the UK or Spain.
Ever year there are fewer Japanese people of working age, and an ever greater number of retirees and aged people. The dependency ratio worsens every year, therefore deepening the malaise. Outside metropolitan Tokyo, many villages and prefectures are literally dying.
Robots might help Japan's manufacturing remain (vaguely) competitive, but they won't look after old people and wipe their bottoms.
And because Japan is literally dying on its feet, many of its most talented people leave for the United States or Europe every year. Just as with that other dying behemoth, Russia, the brightest and the best head for the exits.
Japan is one of the few rich countries, probably the only one, where illegal labour hourly rates are close the legal hourly rates. The operative word is stagnant. Abe has done yet another reflation . Can the soufflé rise twice ? or many times ?
I think that also reflects how difficult it is to work illegally in Japan, compared to - say - the United States.
"Simply Red's Mick Hucknall once donated money to former Labour PM Tony Blair. Now, according to the Sun, he supports David Cameron and Nick Clegg.
"If I had to, I would vote for the Coalition - I've liked the Coalition," the paper quotes him saying."
This is the sad depths that the BBC has sunk and has to draw on for its focus on the election today. A reference to a bygone pop singer and his preferences. This after banning all mention of the election because it's Easter Sunday, as someone had suddenly become religious in it's ivory towers.
A friend of mine owned the game when I was kid - it was actually pretty good as I remember!
Cool glider I should head to the IWM next time I'm in London. Funny that I learned to fly in the similar but German k8 http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/2/26/Schleicher_K_8b_D-5727.jpg Germany now make almost all of the world's best gliders, they started after WWII when they were banned by international treaty from making powered aeroplanes.
A friend of mine owned the game when I was kid - it was actually pretty good as I remember!
Cool glider I should head to the IWM next time I'm in London. Funny that I learned to fly in the similar but German k8 http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/2/26/Schleicher_K_8b_D-5727.jpg Germany now make almost all of the world's best gliders, they started after WWII when they were banned by international treaty from making powered aeroplanes.
They were big on gliders between the wars too, no?
Comments
I donate as required. I bet with others to generate income. I also - in the past - get moderated.
What I do is provide funding bets for this site. My £50 bbl Brent is quite well known. [Sorry Pulpie; and Junior's eagerness for the typo £30 bbl Brent could appear embarrassing when Iran comes back on-stream.
So:
I called 'No Triple-dip' recession (as, by definition, a recession is singular), but no bets won,
I called "Gideon" calling the PBR in FY2013 correctly (and thank-you to Ben-M for clarifying this).
I called Brent £/bbl right once and - maybe - twice.
All helps to fund a betting site. My New-Year bets have not been so well-received though (as they look pretty-close-to-the-mark).
And you caller...?
My guess is that all the "facts" are correct: that the discussion took place, possibly the Salmond comment (a little indiscreet but no worse). I also suspect that Sturgeon said that she thought Ed was not PM material and, perhaps, that she could work with Cameron.
Where it went wrong was the *conclusion* that the *French Ambassador* drew (not unreasonably, especially if you are unware of the nuances of Scottish politics) that Sturgeon would prefer Cameron to Milliband. This was reported back to the Scottish Office who recorded it, but didn't think it was correct.
Don't know how true that is.
At least you seeing it from both sides.
Japan is a bit of a weird case because they don't generally think that assimilation is a thing. This is incredibly frustrating for some long-term foreign residents who want to be accepted as normal members of society, but there's an upside to it if you just want to be able to do what you like.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/apr/05/election-2015-lib-dem-battlegrounds?CMP=share_btn_tw
I agree that it is possible the country as benefited as a whole but that isn't the way if measure it
If I won the lottery the day after 20 of my friends went bankrupt we would be financially better off cumulatively. Only if I shared it equally would we all be better off
It is a utilitarian argument. What is the rule? I'd say a nation should look farther the poorest at the expense of the richest, but I don't think taxes work nowadays.. Too easy to swerve.
It is a left wing protectionist idea to ban competition from migrant labour in the markets where the poorest are affected and I have no problem with it at all
Anyway, ignoring what shambolically poor business decisions many of them made in the past, do I believe banking behaviour is so systemically important to the economy and society that the state has a right to intervene to move a fraction of lending away from bidding up the prices of existing houses, and towards expanding the supply of new houses - yes.
Some cultures and beliefs are so at odds with our own, that short of leaving them at the door when you get here, you are walking in to conflict.
I am sorry that your new home is as intolerant to you as when the UKBA was to your wife when Fukashima happened: I would like to see you and your family back in the Jerusalem that is England one day (as anywhere is better than France).
Since this "puritanism" started towards the end of Tony's fist term, it can hardly be described as "new"?
When did you decide to stop voting for him?
I had no idea that any of those arrangements existed and still don't understand most of them. Except that they're to do with oil futures, which no one with half a head would go near unless it was their day job. If my GE bet comes off, I'll happily send OGH 10%. I've never bet before.
Perhaps OGH should create a "Gold Card" member once their financial support for this place has reach a certain level!
Anyway, it's too late in the day for me to be here...
Not necessarily, you could give people three points for being white, or if that was too shocking use approximate proxies for that like points for having ancestors from x, y and z.
Ancestry is a the key element in most countries, notably Israel and India, citizenship and immigration policies, and rightly so. British Zimbabweans have an inherent right to seek and be granted asylum here.
This was part of the Japanese policy to deal with their demographic problems. They realized they needed more people but they were worried a bunch of foreigners wouldn't fit in, so they paid people with Japanese grandparents to come over. Unfortunately it turned out that the Brazailian grandchildren of Japanese people act like Brazilians not Japanese people, and Brazilians are the least culturally-Japanese-like people this side of the Hutt Space planets, and they ended up paying them to go away again.
Even Brazilians of Japanese ancestry were unable to assimilate and were encouraged to go home. The Japanese seem perfectly happy to allow their population to decline until it reaches a sustainable level. The Japanese just like being Japanese at the end of the day, and they will still be around in a hundred years time. Nothing like a good healthy distrust of strangers.
Dunno what you think a "sustainable level" would be, but when push comes to shove I think people will want their pensions paid.
Japan is a bit of a weird case because they don't generally think that assimilation is a thing. This is incredibly frustrating for some long-term foreign residents who want to be accepted as normal members of society, but there's an upside to it if you just want to be able to do what you like.
Perdix said :The Japanese are spending a lot of money on robots which could be used as personal servants. Is a motivation for this a recognition that their population is aging and in decline, and that these robots could be helpful to the elderly?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IOWA-L3JZO4
Was reading someone arguing that they are now through the worst of their demographic issues anyway now. They didn't go for short-term fixes and can look forward to sustaining their high standard of living, just with a bit more space to enjoy it.
This was part of the Japanese policy to deal with their demographic problems. They realized they needed more people but they were worried a bunch of foreigners wouldn't fit in, so they paid people with Japanese grandparents to come over. Unfortunately it turned out that the Brazailian grandchildren of Japanese people act like Brazilians not Japanese people, and Brazilians are the least culturally-Japanese-like people this side of the Hutt Space planets, and they ended up paying them to go away again.
Even Brazilians of Japanese ancestry were unable to assimilate and were encouraged to go home. The Japanese seem perfectly happy to allow their population to decline until it reaches a sustainable level. The Japanese just like being Japanese at the end of the day, and they will still be around in a hundred years time. Nothing like a good healthy distrust of strangers.
Dunno what you think a "sustainable level" would be, but when push comes to shove I think people will want their pensions paid.
Japan is a bit of a weird case because they don't generally think that assimilation is a thing. This is incredibly frustrating for some long-term foreign residents who want to be accepted as normal members of society, but there's an upside to it if you just want to be able to do what you like.
Perdix said :The Japanese are spending a lot of money on robots which could be used as personal servants. Is a motivation for this a recognition that their population is aging and in decline, and that these robots could be helpful to the elderly?
You're being satirical, right?
This is exactly the position that many of our fellow (and loyal) British subjects in the north of Great Britain have reached themselves.
The 'miliband is not up to it and his policies dont add up' is the single greatest meme that the Conservatives can push. This is a one more drip in the ocean of that.
The government is actually trying to expand immigration as well, albeit a bit clumsily and cluelessly.
Things have changed.
I seem to remember Lloyds making a shocking business decision after being encouraged to do so by Gordon Brown.
Not that any of this nonsense is important.
As for more space, the countryside is still depopulating and the population of Tokyo is still growing, so people are voting with their feet against having more of that.
Japan has a phenomenon called 'herbivore men' or young males who have completely dropped out of work, study, dating and marriage.
Its reported to be a big problem for them.
It's a shame that the politicians feel the need to condense everything down to a soundbite for the 10pm news.
The Guido caption contest was won with "Holding back the ears..."
Cannot for the life of me understand why the BBC cancels all political programmes on Easter Sunday.
Do the presenters and key staff have it in their contracts that it's the one Sunday a year they get off?
< /cynical >
Really? I'm guessing the herbivore men don;t sign on, so that's quite difficult to ascertain.
Patrick Robert "Pat" Reid, MBE, MC (13 November 1910 – 22 May 1990) was a British Army officer and historical author of non-fiction. As a British prisoner of war during the Second World War, he was held captive at Colditz Castle when it was designated Oflag IV-C. Reid was one of the few to escape from Colditz, crossing the border into neutral Switzerland in late 1942. After the war Reid was a diplomat and administrator before eventually returning to his pre-war career in civil engineering. He also wrote about his experiences in two best-selling books, which became the basis of a film, TV series and even a board game.">Patrick Robert "Pat" Reid, MBE, MC (13 November 1910 – 22 May 1990) was a British Army officer and historical author of non-fiction. As a British prisoner of war during the Second World War, he was held captive at Colditz Castle when it was designated Oflag IV-C. Reid was one of the few to escape from Colditz, crossing the border into neutral Switzerland in late 1942. After the war Reid was a diplomat and administrator before eventually returning to his pre-war career in civil engineering. He also wrote about his experiences in two best-selling books, which became the basis of a film, TV series and even a board game.
Other messages may be permeated: They may effect votes and affect betting. But - for now - Happy Easter.
Lay Tory Maj @ 7.0 in the Next Government market
Back Tory Maj @ 7.8 in the Overall Majority market
Obviously you need to allow for commission.
7th May weather forecast for UK per CFS model.
Scotland - wet
England/Wales - periods of showery rain and dryer interludes.
Temps Cool - 10C-12C
Wages are not diminished because of migrants. Wages are diminished because there is no effective measure in place to protect wages against the inevitable Marxian erosion which is an unavoidable consequence of all capitalist economies in the long term.
Smart countries protect through legislation (some better than others because this will not be without consequences), The wealthy will create spurious arguments based on kernels of truth to avoid this. Because inherited wealth is not affected by the diminution of wages (in fact it is enhanced).
There is a long and complex argument as to why simply reducing the Supply of Labour in a country does not increase wages (too long to go into here). The wage diminution is inevitable and has nothing to do with migrants.
!) UKIP were 5pts ahead in the 1st question
2) People were asked to "think about current MP" in the 2nd question.. Current MP is standing down
3) The final question was framed "if it were a legal obligation to vote...."
Based on people who voted for the three major parties at the last election the score are:
Con - 34.07%
Lab - 30.58%
LD - 9.57%
UKIP - 10.05%
Stated YouGov VI:
Con - 34%
Lab - 33%
LD - 10%
UKIP - 13%
We can see that both Labour and UKIP disproportionately drawing voters from people who didn't vote for the three major parties in 2010 (91% of voters). UKIP of course are going draw on the 3% they got last time so they have a net addition of 10 points from 2010 voters of the three major parties. So that leaves Labour getting votes from people who didn't turn up last time or were not eligible (people aged 23 or younger or immigrants). It's not a group of voters I would want to rely on.
I would like YouGov to add a couple of columns to their 2010 vote, "DNV" and "some other party". I don't see where Labour's 2.5% boost has come from other than DNV, they surely haven't squeezed the Nationalists or the Greens, both of which have a higher VI than they scored in 2010.
It is also not the first time I have noticed Labour scoring disproportionately well 2010 DNVs, it is a pattern that I have noticed a lot with YouGov.
Please now think specifically about your own constituency of South Thanet, the issues it faces, the local MP and the different candidates. Who do you think you will vote for in the General Election on May 7th?
On a general point I'm finding the incessant complaints from UKIP about anything and everything really rather tiresome. All they do is moan. Grow up.
This may also reflect the odds on OM being completely off kilter. If polling in the last week is something like 37/34 Con - I will be leaning toward a small con majority.
Don't worry, once Farage wins this seat comfortably all will be good
I am happy enough, had a record three months punting and UKIP are about to do the best they ever have at a GE
It was also the subject of a TV series in the 70's but by far the best was the 1957 film staring John Mills and Eric Portman.
The Germans were never going to beat these prisoners or Pat Reid the first Britisher to score a " home run" from colditz castle
http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/thurrock/winning-party/bet-history/labour/today
What's your point?
The unknown doesnt seem to be where the 2010 con vote will go, it will go where it went last time, whats in question, is where the libdem vote will fall, and how UKIP keep coming up in our records, but not at our expense.
https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/13331381/2015.PNG
Who knew?
Ever year there are fewer Japanese people of working age, and an ever greater number of retirees and aged people. The dependency ratio worsens every year, therefore deepening the malaise. Outside metropolitan Tokyo, many villages and prefectures are literally dying.
Robots might help Japan's manufacturing remain (vaguely) competitive, but they won't look after old people and wipe their bottoms.
And because Japan is literally dying on its feet, many of its most talented people leave for the United States or Europe every year. Just as with that other dying behemoth, Russia, the brightest and the best head for the exits.
Do we think that the left leaning 4 will gang together and blame everything on the coalition whilst at the same time bullying Nigel (somewhat playing into his hands)
Or, will they all just rip chunks from one another!
Theres a great little website for people who believe in such inevitable rubbish, its called housepricecrash.co.uk They have lots of pretty graphs and things,
It worked!
http://www.channel4.com/programmes/escape-from-colditz
'Parties in terminal decline' would make it clearer that you are referring to the politicians who market themselves as blue and red variants of Team Guardianista.
Funny that I learned to fly in the similar but German k8
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/2/26/Schleicher_K_8b_D-5727.jpg
Germany now make almost all of the world's best gliders, they started after WWII when they were banned by international treaty from making powered aeroplanes.
Labour 549:490 = 1.12 * 29.7 (2010 share) = 33.28%
Tories 491:520 = 0.94 * 37.0 (2010 share) = 34.91%