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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Private UKIP poll has Farage behind South Thanet
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Private UKIP poll has Farage behind South Thanet
Nigel Farage faced claims of a ‘cover-up’ last night for censoring a poll that suggests he is on course for a humiliating personal defeat in the General Election.
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It was pointed out last night, but the Mail lets itself down with the line chart.
Some of the Labour looking posters & Mr Smithson said Con-Lab wouldn't tactical on Farage. Not so. I'd definitely vote for the other main party rather than Farage but it does look to be a 3-way race right now. Loads of tories or labour will vote anything to stop Farage.
Terrible SLAB poll again. We've become so used to them they don't raise an eyebrow.
Meantime all other polls show no movement from the debate. Reckon that's because no-one watched. OK so 7m said they did, just 2m more than Question Time each week. But if your talking to a political pollster are you really going to admit to not watching or switching over? No.
Lets see how things stand a week from now after Easters out the system.
Thanet South - UKIP GAIN ....
The YG has Sturgeon 17 points ahead of Ed on a UK wide basis on a forced choice for better leader this morning, while it's 70-22 in her favour in Scotland.
I've had UK on 1 seat for a while (even in the competition a few weeks ago). Carswell will win, but he would have won as an independent as well & I wouldn't be surprised to see him end up as one within the next 5 years.
I've got to the point with the Tories and their supporters that I really do hope is Ed is PM on May 8th.
The ComRes poll is flawed because yet again there are no named candidates and although this is a high profile constituency there is little doubt that naming candidates would see a bounce for Nigel - Voters enjoy having a popular high profile party leader as their candidate.
Farage is also aided by this poll as tactical anti kippers are in a complete quandary as to who to vote for. Further if UKIP continue to slip nationally even into single figures then I would still confidently expect Farage, Carswell and possibly even the "Traitorous Pig Dog" to win.
The Nicola affair is interesting. Someone said to me yesterday it was likely to be a Grant Shapps dirty trick which though doubtful shows the danger of a political party employing a used car dealer
Finally, I suspect we need about a week for the polls to start and setttle - and even then, 'event dear boy.....'
There must be something in the air when even Janet Daley can write a sensible column...
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2015/11515598/Class-war-vs-the-free-market-havent-we-been-here-before.html
Neither the debates nor the leaked memo seem to have changed much, but I reckon campaigns rarely do. They are mostly score draws.
"There must be something in the air when even Janet Daley can write a sensible column...
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2015/11515598/Class-war-vs-the-free-market-havent-we-been-here-before.html"
If you're a dyed in the wool Tory. It reads to me like the crap she always writes and is just as boringly written
"Roger.. a good smear..worthy of you."
From the master of the genre I take that as a compliment.
HM the Queen is in liegeance the Jacobite successor.
Some of us think that if we make a bigger cake, we can all eat more cake.
103 businessmen with an average income of over £5,000,000 write to the Telegraph telling them it's crucial for the Tories to win the election.....
I'm starting to think this might be the most important election in my lifetime.
By your reckoning on the basis of favourability/popularity ratings alone Ed Miliband would lose his constituency.
Farage looked sweaty and nervous on Thursday because he realises that this is his best shot at political influence. UKIP knows (for all its rhetoric) that Britain's laws are made in Westminster. Farage failing electorally again would be the end of the line.
And may my ARSE go with and forever be with you too.
This is simply the Daily Mail knifing Farage and UKIP in the back. Thanks Nige, you've been really useful to us helping keep the Tories where we want them, but we don't want you doing too well..... With friends like The Mail who needs enemies.
If Labour were smart, they would work to have Farage lose - by stopping working the seat. Farage's UKIP has the potential to cause their second tsunami of losses after Scotland. Farage can tap into those decades of neglect that Labour has shown for its red-rosette-on-a-donkey ballot fodder, in a way that the Tories never will. Farage has said he has gone if he doesn't get elected. Farage has made UKIP his own vanity project (by booting out those who don't agree with him). So cut off the head of the snake. End the threat.
If Labour were smart.... Big if.
Indeed, being socially adept is probably a sign of an inability to make "cake".
48 hours 38 minutes 28 seconds
Food banks: a great Coalition triumph.
Under European Law, that EU you love so much, you cant stop the free movement of capital, companies will move their head office to where ever they can pay less tax, the current president of the EU was generous enough to set the rate of corporation tax in Luxembourg to 1% while he was in his old job.
You are confusing it with internationalism, a horse of a different colour.
For example, has been any scientific studies on why voters vote for similar candidates to themselves - hence the importance of "I understand your problems".
Do men vote for men, do women vote for women? Do ethnic groups favour one of their own? Do white voters favour white candidates? suspect so but how big a factor is it? In some seats, all the candidates are Asian. That can hardly be coincidence, but has this effect been quantified?
Or do we just prefer to use gut feeling? You lot should be the experts, what are the facts?.
http://www.amazon.co.uk/Nothing-Envy-Lives-North-Korea/dp/184708141X
The descriptions of the North Korean famine of the nineties are shocking. No foodbanks there.
By your reckoning on the basis of favourability/popularity ratings alone Ed Miliband would lose his constituency."
I'm warming to Jack's ARSE. Compared to some of the right wing fruitcakes who have been posting lately at least it's not simply a wish list. I regret we haven't been allowed to scrutinize its internals but compared to the wild hysteria from the incontinent Nats that's a small price to pay
We are world leaders in high tech manufacturing technology too - look at BAE Systems, Airbus, Rolls Royce (x2), McLaren, Lotus, Aston Martin, Prodrive, 3/4 of the F1 teams as well as numerous other large car plants.
Yes Mr Brown put all his (Easter) eggs in one basket with financial services, and we all saw what happened when revenues fell off a cliff in that sector in 2008. The solution is to diversify and encourage investment, not to tax the golden goose to extinction as proposed by Miliband and his army of 1970s socialists.
People needing food.
Fwiw I think Farage will win but it will be tight. The conservative campaign is poor, whoever thought Sol Campbell is a vote winner for floating tory voters is clueless.
YouGov generally interesting on the impact of the debate from numeous angles. Those who saw the whole debate rate Miliband much more highly (44% positive vs 49% for Cameron, with a huge 17-point net gap), and there has been a further overall improvment in Ed's ratings to 33%, exactly the same as the party. Clegg and Farage did better among the viewers, while Cameron had a small net decline (-2). Miliband also beat Cameron by big margins on "most in touch" and "most genuine and authentic" among debate viewers. Viewers are also much more likely to find the campaign interesting (71% vs 49% generally), though of course people who are interested are far more likely to have watched.
Now it's possible to read the above as meaning that more Labour people watched the debate. But that in itself suggests greater commitment, which should give the Tories pause. In the next debate, Cameron isn't present, which may or may not prove a good thing for him.
"CarlottaVance, you have been found guilty of imagining the mortal destruction of the King of Political Blogs.
You will be taken from this place to ConHome and there upon an appointed time you will hung out to dry intellectually until you are a drop dead zombie.
May the gods of PB have mercy on your soul."
You need to remember that naming candidates can work the other way. Look at decapitations like Chris Patten and 1997. Would the tories have won Tatton without Neil Hamilton? Obviously. Did enough peeps deliberately vote out Portillo? Of course. No they might not call it "tactical voting" [doh] but do ordinary voters do it. You betcha.
Farage is despised by many in the centre & that's why he's in trouble. of course there will be tactical voting against him.
Cameron or Sturgeon:
Cameron: 39 (-3)
Sturgeon: 36 (+15)
Miliband or Sturgeon:
Miliband: 27(-2)
Sturgeon: 46 (+20)
I've just been given the black spot by Rogerdamus.
All is lost. Man the lifeboats ....
Ed Miliband Will Be Prime Minister
The amount of people that vote tactically in Thenet will be so small it's irrelevant
If individuals can organise some shenanigans [eg Twickers!] then maybe the best bet is a constituency deal whereby labour drop out of thanet south in exchange for tories giving up in another labour target? Would be worth it to decapitate Farage.
Noel Coward said he preferred TRANSAT (the "French Line") because they "didn't bother with that women and children first nonsense"
Sauve qui peut!
I find with politics the best thing is to assume the exact opposite of what a politician says to be the truth.
Chris Patten was not a party leader but as Party Chairman acted as a lightening rod for unpopular Conservative policies in a seat long targeted by the Liberals where the antiTory vote coalesced behind the yellow peril alone.
Portillo's defeat was assisted by the poll in the "Observer" that clearly indicated Labour were within a striking distance of claiming the seat. In Thanet South no such single challenger is in place.
The Sturgeon story is a gift to the SNP. The YES brigade simply think she is being smeared and are looking at SLAB and LibDems as possible source. Her star continues to rise.
:socialism-destroys-hope:
Imagine you live in the land of Oz, and the candidates are the Tin Man, who's all brains and no heart, and the Straw Man, who's all heart and no brains. Who would you vote for?
Predictably the only group that is more Straw Man than Tin Man is Labour voters
Net Tin Man over Straw Man
All +22
Con +63
Lab -15
LD +34
Ukip +25
There will always be this big dividing line in politics - e.g. the stereotype is like when a Tory sees a starving man and will give him a fishing rod whereas the Labour type will give him handouts of fish for the rest of his life.
http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/mms0le3g9r/YG-Archive-Pol-Sunday-Times-results-040415-Final.pdf
Just an update from the so called ultra-marginal of Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross. In week one of the short campaign we received precisely zero election communications from any party. The only election related mail this week was the arrival on Thursday of 2 purple coloured postal vote cards.
http://news.sky.com/story/1458990/sturgeon-help-me-lock-cameron-out-of-no-10
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/poll-tracker
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/jcjlhiejxs/YouGov-survey-Oz-Scarecrow-Tin-Man-131127.pdf