I agree completely. Anyone that thinks UKIP are going to go away, especially in a world of rising Islam is whistling to keep themselves happy.
ukip have been sliding in the polls & have lost 40% of their support. thats not what anyone on political betting thinks or says, least of all the over-proportioned kippers on here but good solid plain fact. You can dislike it as much as you wish.
I have said all along that I would be happy with 10%, but I would not be at all surprised if UKIP win a couple of surprise seats in the North while not doing as well as expected in other areas.
JackW's comment is wrong because Farage doesn't start with the same supporter base as someone like Miliband. Farage needs to gain tory and labour voters & many of them loathe him.
You need to remember that naming candidates can work the other way. Look at decapitations like Chris Patten and 1997. Would the tories have won Tatton without Neil Hamilton? Obviously. Did enough peeps deliberately vote out Portillo? Of course. No they might not call it "tactical voting" [doh] but do ordinary voters do it. You betcha.
Farage is despised by many in the centre & that's why he's in trouble. of course there will be tactical voting against him.
I constantly tear my hair out at those who underrate Farage. It's this complacency that will let UKIP in. Perhaps in the leafy commuter towns and the dinner party set he is despised, but there are vast numbers of Labour and Conservative voters that are in serious danger of defecting long term. Whenever an MP or journalist actually deigns to go out knocking on doors or interviewing people outside London, they are shocked at the level of potential UKIP support. .
I agree completely. Anyone that thinks UKIP are going to go away, especially in a world of rising Islam is whistling to keep themselves happy.
ukip have been sliding in the polls & have lost 40% of their support. thats not what anyone on political betting thinks or says, least of all the over-proportioned kippers on here but good solid plain fact. You can dislike it as much as you wish.
UKIP got 3% in the last election. If they get 10% this time they will have done amazingly well, any other party that tripled their support in 5 years would have been seen as on a roll, its only because they managed to poll up to 18% that some people would see 10% as a disappointment. Personally I think they will get more than 10% at the election, they have a lot of support in the suburbs and quiet areas of the country that metro elite journalists don't visit very often.
Don't get me wrong, I am a Tory, I am not going to vote UKIP, but I think we are being monstrously complacent in underestimating their impact in the medium term. UKIP isn't going away, and more the political establishment offer the country what amounts to three centrist, liberal, metropolitan parties, the more pissed off the people in the suburbs and the shires are going to get, and there are a lot of people there, and a lot of them used to vote Conservative.
Dair's late night lessons in why Scotland is so much better than England are always a treat. I wish I did not miss so many of them. I particularly enjoyed his teachings on a "fair go" last night and how this specifically Scottish idea shaped Australia and Canada. But then I wondered about the "fair go" all the people who were dispossessed by these fair-minded, well-educated Scots got, as their land was appropriated, their cultures destroyed and their basic human rights removed. And then I thought about all the Scottish slave-owners in the southern United States and of the open discrimination practised on the Chinese in Hong Kong by its Scottish rulers; and I realised he was talking absolute crap. And that was before I started to contemplate the "fair go" afforded to Irish immigrants in Scotland by their well-educated protestant neighbours. But bless him anyway :-)
I think that you missed out the "fair go" that the Lairds gave their own people in the Clearances, the mines and shipyards. It was a most bizarre claim!
Nearly a million people visiting food banks and rising.....kids going to school hungry because their parents are struggling.......
103 businessmen with an average income of over £5,000,000 write to the Telegraph telling them it's crucial for the Tories to win the election.....
I'm starting to think this might be the most important election in my lifetime.
Because it would be so much better if those businessmen decided it would be better for their business to relocate to India or Malaysia, that would cure the problem with food banks and parents struggling right away.... oh wait!
I can't see Karen Brady moving West Ham to India. It would be great, but it's not going to happen. Stratford is far enough. A nice, new subsidised home from Boris and the government.
That's one saved then. What about the other thousand of businessmen and women across the country ?
We'll stick around. The vast majority of others will too.
Yes, I noticed that happening in France when Hollande was elected, they stuck around waiting for the next Eurostar to London.
Farage has spoken of resigning as leader in the event of losing, but has he mentioned resigning as an MEP? It's hard to see him jumping off that gravy train, not with all those allowances, and 'banks of computers' to support.
Dair's late night lessons in why Scotland is so much better than England are always a treat. I wish I did not miss so many of them. I particularly enjoyed his teachings on a "fair go" last night and how this specifically Scottish idea shaped Australia and Canada. But then I wondered about the "fair go" all the people who were dispossessed by these fair-minded, well-educated Scots got, as their land was appropriated, their cultures destroyed and their basic human rights removed. And then I thought about all the Scottish slave-owners in the southern United States and of the open discrimination practised on the Chinese in Hong Kong by its Scottish rulers; and I realised he was talking absolute crap. And that was before I started to contemplate the "fair go" afforded to Irish immigrants in Scotland by their well-educated protestant neighbours. But bless him anyway :-)
O wad some Power the giftie gie us To see oursels as ithers see us!
So you think we should all slap ourselves on the back because UKIP are now down to only 433% of the vote they had at the last election? Trumpeting a slide towards the big parties in the six months before a close election after they have rocketed up the polls in the four years before that is exactly the short term thinking I'm complaining about. The political class seems to jump between a mad panic when the recent polls show them rising, and a concerted mindset that nothing needs to change when the recent polls show them falling. This is exactly what happened with the SNP in Scotland yet the big parties refuse to learn any lessons from that experience now it's happening with UKIP in England.
To hit that target the Conservatives will need to be as much as four points ahead of Labour. That does not look impossible given where the polls are now. But the Tory campaign during the next four weeks will have to be a good one.
And that's to hit the bare minimum figure, the slightest of potential scenarios that might lead to a Tory victory. It might not be impossible, but that looks bloody difficult for them.
Farage has spoken of resigning as leader in the event of losing, but has he mentioned resigning as an MEP? It's hard to see him jumping off that gravy train, not with all those allowances, and 'banks of computers' to support.
Not sure why he should if he still has the confidence of his electorate in that position. I know why you think he should, but that not really the same thing
The amount of people that vote tactically in Thenet will be so small it's irrelevant
That's a keeper.....
Unless it's true. Thanet is a special case but I agree there is less tactical voting than we think there is; I am sure most voters are guided by the Chinese proverb "if you want peaches don't plant cabbages".
This election will be decided not by switchers or swingers but by voters who will either vote labour or not vote at all.
Nearly a million people visiting food banks and rising.....kids going to school hungry because their parents are struggling.......
103 businessmen with an average income of over £5,000,000 write to the Telegraph telling them it's crucial for the Tories to win the election.....
I'm starting to think this might be the most important election in my lifetime.
Because it would be so much better if those businessmen decided it would be better for their business to relocate to India or Malaysia, that would cure the problem with food banks and parents struggling right away.... oh wait!
I can't see Karen Brady moving West Ham to India. It would be great, but it's not going to happen. Stratford is far enough. A nice, new subsidised home from Boris and the government.
That's one saved then. What about the other thousand of businessmen and women across the country ?
We'll stick around. The vast majority of others will too.
Yes, I noticed that happening in France when Hollande was elected, they stuck around waiting for the next Eurostar to London.
The vast majority of French companies are still in France, but they are struggling because of labour laws we do not have (and no-one is going to introduce) and because they do not have any control over their currency. Like you, I am delighted that we have benefited from an influx of highly-qualified, ambitious, young French immigrants. We get their top talent, they get our unproductive retirees. Isn't the EU great?
Nearly a million people visiting food banks and rising.....kids going to school hungry because their parents are struggling.......
103 businessmen with an average income of over £5,000,000 write to the Telegraph telling them it's crucial for the Tories to win the election.....
I'm starting to think this might be the most important election in my lifetime.
Because it would be so much better if those businessmen decided it would be better for their business to relocate to India or Malaysia, that would cure the problem with food banks and parents struggling right away.... oh wait!
I can't see Karen Brady moving West Ham to India. It would be great, but it's not going to happen. Stratford is far enough. A nice, new subsidised home from Boris and the government.
That 's not "moving" that's "coming home". Stratford is in the old County Borough of West Ham whereas the Boleyn Ground. I believe, is (just) the wrong side of the border in East Ham.
JackW's comment is wrong because Farage doesn't start with the same supporter base as someone like Miliband. Farage needs to gain tory and labour voters & many of them loathe him.
You need to remember that naming candidates can work the other way. Look at decapitations like Chris Patten and 1997. Would the tories have won Tatton without Neil Hamilton? Obviously. Did enough peeps deliberately vote out Portillo? Of course. No they might not call it "tactical voting" [doh] but do ordinary voters do it. You betcha.
Farage is despised by many in the centre & that's why he's in trouble. of course there will be tactical voting against him.
I constantly tear my hair out at those who underrate Farage. It's this complacency that will let UKIP in. Perhaps in the leafy commuter towns and the dinner party set he is despised, but there are vast numbers of Labour and Conservative voters that are in serious danger of defecting long term. Whenever an MP or journalist actually deigns to go out knocking on doors or interviewing people outside London, they are shocked at the level of potential UKIP support. Unless the Big Two wake up and start having a sustainable long-term message to these people, then they are in serious danger. Right now they seem to think they can rely on good soundbites or comebacks. That might get them through the next election, but it won't work unless they actually deliver in addressing these voters' concerns.
I agree completely. But it involves making some tough choices which will be unpopular with significant sections of their core vote, so they won't take them. People continuously take comfort in comparisons with the SDP, but its idiotic, the SDP didn't offer anything that wasn't available from the other parties except a bit of nuance and slightly different emphasis. UKIP are offering the only socially conservative platform, and the only anti-immigration platform, and the only anti-EU platform, that is a substantial constituency that has no one else to vote for. At the moment they are hobbled by too many fruitcakes, and too few seats with candidates in second place that the voters believe have a chance of winning, that will change over time. Anyone that thinks UKIP are going to go away, especially in a world of rising Islam is whistling to keep themselves happy.
I am not even convinced it would be unpopular with their core vote. How many Tories in the Shires would really have a problem with limiting free movement of labour? How many working men's club members would have an issue with a tough line on law & order? Neither are particularly motivating issues to me, but neither do I have much problem with them. The people who seem to be blocking them are a very narrow set of well-to-do graduates of independent schools.
So you think we should all slap ourselves on the back because UKIP are now down to only 433% of the vote they had at the last election? Trumpeting a slide towards the big parties in the six months before a close election after they have rocketed up the polls in the four years before that is exactly the short term thinking I'm complaining about. The political class seems to jump between a mad panic when the recent polls show them rising, and a concerted mindset that nothing needs to change when the recent polls show them falling. This is exactly what happened with the SNP in Scotland yet the big parties refuse to learn any lessons from that experience now it's happening with UKIP in England.
The close election is the key point. UKIPs vote isn't fading because people are being driven away by Farage, its fading because people don't want the "Ed and Alex Show" in charge of the country. If for the sake of argument Labour implode a bit after this election, and 2020 is much more of a forgone conclusion, whole hosts of pissed off Conservatives are going to be looking at UKIP again, especially if they have spent the time purging their fruitcakes and tightening up their offering. Even worse if the Conservatives lose, and Dave gets the blame, lots of pissed off Tories are going to conclude they have nothing to lose by considering UKIP next time.
So you think we should all slap ourselves on the back because UKIP are now down to only 433% of the vote they had at the last election? Trumpeting a slide towards the big parties in the six months before a close election after they have rocketed up the polls in the four years before that is exactly the short term thinking I'm complaining about. The political class seems to jump between a mad panic when the recent polls show them rising, and a concerted mindset that nothing needs to change when the recent polls show them falling. This is exactly what happened with the SNP in Scotland yet the big parties refuse to learn any lessons from that experience now it's happening with UKIP in England.
Nearly a year ago, UKIP won the Euro elections. Since then, we have....er...dramtically stayed in the EU.
Other than having a few more UKIP mouths suckling on the Euro-teats of Plenty, can anyone say what this changed?
Watched the news last night. Miliband seems to think the state should command the banks to invest in certain things. Man's off his rocker.
Did he really write "Quiet Bat People" in his notes?
@PeterMannionMP: "Happy Warrior .... Quiet Bat People" Ed Miliband's handwritten motivational notes from the #leadersdebate... #GE2015 http://t.co/z3V4IohC86
The amount of people that vote tactically in Thenet will be so small it's irrelevant
That's a keeper.....
Unless it's true. Thanet is a special case but I agree there is less tactical voting than we think there is; I am sure most voters are guided by the Chinese proverb "if you want peaches don't plant cabbages".
This election will be decided not by switchers or swingers but by voters who will either vote labour or not vote at all.
I think tactical voting is pretty marginal too, at least in a sense of real loyalists voting for a different party to injure a third. TV in that form is a very negative phenomenon.
There are however a floating pool of voters without strong allegience who will switch, but that is not quite the same thing.
To hit that target the Conservatives will need to be as much as four points ahead of Labour. That does not look impossible given where the polls are now. But the Tory campaign during the next four weeks will have to be a good one.
And that's to hit the bare minimum figure, the slightest of potential scenarios that might lead to a Tory victory. It might not be impossible, but that looks bloody difficult for them.
There are 32 more days of this, I believe. It seems like an eternity. The country is going to be on its knees by the time we go to the polls.
So you think we should all slap ourselves on the back because UKIP are now down to only 433% of the vote they had at the last election? Trumpeting a slide towards the big parties in the six months before a close election after they have rocketed up the polls in the four years before that is exactly the short term thinking I'm complaining about. The political class seems to jump between a mad panic when the recent polls show them rising, and a concerted mindset that nothing needs to change when the recent polls show them falling. This is exactly what happened with the SNP in Scotland yet the big parties refuse to learn any lessons from that experience now it's happening with UKIP in England.
Nearly a year ago, UKIP won the Euro elections. Since then, we have....er...dramtically stayed in the EU.
Other than having a few more UKIP mouths suckling on the Euro-teats of Plenty, can anyone say what this changed?
That's not exactly fair though, the existence of a European parliament appears to change nothing.
He's a fan of Gotham? I'm LOL at this revelation. I thought Happy Warrior was ridiculous enough.
Back in the early 1990s I had a boss who was REALLY into motivational stuff and had all our office walls plastered with those infamous pictures. And he once told me he said "I love you" to himself in the mirror every morning...
Watched the news last night. Miliband seems to think the state should command the banks to invest in certain things. Man's off his rocker.
Did he really write "Quiet Bat People" in his notes?
@PeterMannionMP: "Happy Warrior .... Quiet Bat People" Ed Miliband's handwritten motivational notes from the #leadersdebate... #GE2015 http://t.co/z3V4IohC86
Mr. Observer, perhaps. Worth bearing in mind we all pay more attention to politics generally so the general public may not feel quite as saturated with it as we do.
Mr. P, honestly, I think Miliband would make a great Batman, in an original series' style TV show.
"Holy ill-considered energy policy, Batman!"
"Robin, hand me my capitalism-repellent Batspray."
To hit that target the Conservatives will need to be as much as four points ahead of Labour. That does not look impossible given where the polls are now. But the Tory campaign during the next four weeks will have to be a good one.
And that's to hit the bare minimum figure, the slightest of potential scenarios that might lead to a Tory victory. It might not be impossible, but that looks bloody difficult for them.
There are 32 more days of this, I believe. It seems like an eternity. The country is going to be on its knees by the time we go to the polls.
I am already fed up with the mindless vox pops, I really wish the TV news didn't feel the need to pad out programmes with the ill-formed opinions of the ignorant and unwashed.
Nearly a million people visiting food banks and rising.....kids going to school hungry because their parents are struggling.......
103 businessmen with an average income of over £5,000,000 write to the Telegraph telling them it's crucial for the Tories to win the election.....
I'm starting to think this might be the most important election in my lifetime.
Because it would be so much better if those businessmen decided it would be better for their business to relocate to India or Malaysia, that would cure the problem with food banks and parents struggling right away.... oh wait!
I can't see Karen Brady moving West Ham to India. It would be great, but it's not going to happen. Stratford is far enough. A nice, new subsidised home from Boris and the government.
That's one saved then. What about the other thousand of businessmen and women across the country ?
We'll stick around. The vast majority of others will too.
Yes, I noticed that happening in France when Hollande was elected, they stuck around waiting for the next Eurostar to London.
And they can just as quickly be off to Geneva or Frankfurt (or Dubai or Singapore or Hong Kong or New York) if London decides it doesn't welcome them any more.
So you think we should all slap ourselves on the back because UKIP are now down to only 433% of the vote they had at the last election? Trumpeting a slide towards the big parties in the six months before a close election after they have rocketed up the polls in the four years before that is exactly the short term thinking I'm complaining about. The political class seems to jump between a mad panic when the recent polls show them rising, and a concerted mindset that nothing needs to change when the recent polls show them falling. This is exactly what happened with the SNP in Scotland yet the big parties refuse to learn any lessons from that experience now it's happening with UKIP in England.
Nearly a year ago, UKIP won the Euro elections. Since then, we have....er...dramtically stayed in the EU.
Other than having a few more UKIP mouths suckling on the Euro-teats of Plenty, can anyone say what this changed?
I know this might come as a shocker to you, but the other countries get to vote in the EU parliament as well, even if we had all our MEPs on an eurosceptic ticket, nothing would change at the moment. However, the trickle has started, AfD now has MEPs, FN has MEPs, lots of eurosceptic parties are slowly taking seats there, and at some point will have enough votes to be noticed.
Its the same story at home. UKIP got 3% last time, everyone smirked and felt safe. When they looked like they might get 18% and half a dozen MPs people started to get nervous. Now it looks more like 10% and 2 MPs people are feeling safer again and starting to patronise kippers again like before. If next time they get 15 seats and 20% of the vote, people will get worried again. Like all eurosceptic parties in the EU I expect them slowly to grow and gain influence, why, because the EU is a democratic clusterf*ck and an economic basket case, and people won't get a feel good feeling while we are attached to it.
Mr. Observer, perhaps. Worth bearing in mind we all pay more attention to politics generally so the general public may not feel quite as saturated with it as we do.
Mr. P, honestly, I think Miliband would make a great Batman, in an original series' style TV show.
"Holy ill-considered energy policy, Batman!"
"Robin, hand me my capitalism-repellent Batspray."
To hit that target the Conservatives will need to be as much as four points ahead of Labour. That does not look impossible given where the polls are now. But the Tory campaign during the next four weeks will have to be a good one.
And that's to hit the bare minimum figure, the slightest of potential scenarios that might lead to a Tory victory. It might not be impossible, but that looks bloody difficult for them.
There are 32 more days of this, I believe. It seems like an eternity. The country is going to be on its knees by the time we go to the polls.
I am already fed up with the mindless vox pops, I really wish the TV news didn't feel the need to pad out programmes with the ill-formed opinions of the ignorant and unwashed.
But unfortunately their vote is of equal value to yours. The days of the extra university vote are long gone.
Farage has spoken of resigning as leader in the event of losing, but has he mentioned resigning as an MEP? It's hard to see him jumping off that gravy train, not with all those allowances, and 'banks of computers' to support.
Not sure why he should if he still has the confidence of his electorate in that position. I know why you think he should, but that not really the same thing
I'm not sure he will resign if he doesn't win Thanet, but even so I don't see him having the discipline to remain silent as O'Flynn or Carswell take the party in a different direction
Farage is despised by many in the centre & that's why he's in trouble. of course there will be tactical voting against him.
Which way will they tactically vote though, in a three way like Thanet S. its likely to cancel each other out, some think that is why Farage decide on that constituency to stand in.
Yeah totally agree with you. Thats his best hope right now, that labour & tories won't sort out which of the two should beat him. It suits neither party for Farage to win but marginally better for Labour, though that could be a mistake.
If individuals can organise some shenanigans [eg Twickers!] then maybe the best bet is a constituency deal whereby labour drop out of thanet south in exchange for tories giving up in another labour target? Would be worth it to decapitate Farage.
Back in the early 1990s I had a boss who was REALLY into motivational stuff .... he once told me he said "I love you" to himself in the mirror every morning...<blockquote
You worked for Peter Stringfellow in the 1990's ?!?!
Clearly your thoughts turned on this particular Sunday to the Easter Bunny and then your time as one of his "Bunny Girls"
Farage has spoken of resigning as leader in the event of losing, but has he mentioned resigning as an MEP? It's hard to see him jumping off that gravy train, not with all those allowances, and 'banks of computers' to support.
Not sure why he should if he still has the confidence of his electorate in that position. I know why you think he should, but that not really the same thing
I'm not sure he will resign if he doesn't win Thanet, but even so I don't see him having the discipline to remain silent as O'Flynn or Carswell take the party in a different direction
Last thread, @Sean_F wrote "The belief that left-wing voters will vote Tory to keep out UKIP is like belief in unicorns."
I used to agree with that, but the latest French municipal elections have made me wonder. The Front National came second in the first round of voting, with 24.5% of the vote, but they ended up in about fifth position in terms of number of councillors, with just 1.5%.
In France, right wing voters - who'd been expected to split fairly evenly between the Socialists and the FN in the second round - voted overwhelmingly against the FN. So much so, that the Communists got 3-4x as many councillors elected as the FN. A great many right wing French voters choose to vote Communist rather than FN.
I think this bodes extremely poorly for UKIP as far as tactical voting goes.
To hit that target the Conservatives will need to be as much as four points ahead of Labour. That does not look impossible given where the polls are now. But the Tory campaign during the next four weeks will have to be a good one.
And that's to hit the bare minimum figure, the slightest of potential scenarios that might lead to a Tory victory. It might not be impossible, but that looks bloody difficult for them.
There are 32 more days of this, I believe. It seems like an eternity. The country is going to be on its knees by the time we go to the polls.
I am already fed up with the mindless vox pops, I really wish the TV news didn't feel the need to pad out programmes with the ill-formed opinions of the ignorant and unwashed.
But unfortunately their vote is of equal value to yours. The days of the extra university vote are long gone.
Oh I know that. I just don't see why they should pad out TV programmes with the stuff. It's utterly tedious and, as has been pointed out, we have another 32 days if it. And it tells us nothing, it is of no more value than a voodoo poll. I suspect they have allowed, e.g , 30 minutes for election news and sometimes there is really only 20 minutes worth. In which case, why not close the programme early and show a Tom and Jerry cartoon?
Ha! I met Peter Stringfellow once by accident. I was going out with a chappy who was his next door neighbour [very nice apartment in a converted church in Highgate]. Peter knocked on his door totally wasted after being locked out of place by yet another angry girlfriend.
Back in the early 1990s I had a boss who was REALLY into motivational stuff .... he once told me he said "I love you" to himself in the mirror every morning...
"God above, Robin! Communist Man is trying to destroy superheroes by slapping a 3,125% sales tax on lycra, spandex, and utility belts! The fiend!"
Mr. Lilburne, that irritates me as well.
The best 'bad' moment so far was one twonk (forget which network he worked for) who talked over footage of himself asking a question to a party leader.
"God above, Robin! Communist Man is trying to destroy superheroes by slapping a 3,125% sales tax on lycra, spandex, and utility belts! The fiend!"
Mr. Lilburne, that irritates me as well.
The best 'bad' moment so far was one twonk (forget which network he worked for) who talked over footage of himself asking a question to a party leader.
Last thread, @Sean_F wrote "The belief that left-wing voters will vote Tory to keep out UKIP is like belief in unicorns."
I used to agree with that, but the latest French municipal elections have made me wonder. The Front National came second in the first round of voting, with 24.5% of the vote, but they ended up in about fifth position in terms of number of councillors, with just 1.5%.
In France, right wing voters - who'd been expected to split fairly evenly between the Socialists and the FN in the second round - voted overwhelmingly against the FN. So much so, that the Communists got 3-4x as many councillors elected as the FN. A great many right wing French voters choose to vote Communist rather than FN.
I think this bodes extremely poorly for UKIP as far as tactical voting goes.
With the election so close, and anyone putting a foot wrong saddling themselves with Miliband/Cameron rather than the leader of their prefered party I expect tactical voting to be minimal. The UKIP vote is going to get squeezed not because people are concerned about Farage, but because they are concerned about the other side winning. I would be very surprised to see any CONs voting for LAB to keep the kippers out, and visa versa, there is just too much risk of a cock-up and saddling yourself with the wrong government for the next five years.
The amount of people that vote tactically in Thenet will be so small it's irrelevant
That's a keeper.....
Unless it's true. Thanet is a special case but I agree there is less tactical voting than we think there is; I am sure most voters are guided by the Chinese proverb "if you want peaches don't plant cabbages".
This election will be decided not by switchers or swingers but by voters who will either vote labour or not vote at all.
I think tactical voting is pretty marginal too, at least in a sense of real loyalists voting for a different party to injure a third. TV in that form is a very negative phenomenon.
There are however a floating pool of voters without strong allegience who will switch, but that is not quite the same thing.
That sort of tactical voting doesn't just happen in the short campaign, it's usually the result of years of bar charts through the letterbox saying that your natural party isn't in contention - the LDs have been rather good at this over the years.
As was alluded to downthread, the key to this election is whether or not the Reds turn out on the day. Cameron should be practising his rain dance...
Last thread, @Sean_F wrote "The belief that left-wing voters will vote Tory to keep out UKIP is like belief in unicorns."
I used to agree with that, but the latest French municipal elections have made me wonder. The Front National came second in the first round of voting, with 24.5% of the vote, but they ended up in about fifth position in terms of number of councillors, with just 1.5%.
In France, right wing voters - who'd been expected to split fairly evenly between the Socialists and the FN in the second round - voted overwhelmingly against the FN. So much so, that the Communists got 3-4x as many councillors elected as the FN. A great many right wing French voters choose to vote Communist rather than FN.
I think this bodes extremely poorly for UKIP as far as tactical voting goes.
There's a lot of difference between UKIP and the FN though. UKIP has never been openly racist and antisemitic. And the other thing is that the great issues of capitalism vs socialism mean a lot less in local elections. There is no point me voting Labour where I live, but I know a Labour councillor in a neighbouring borough who I would be happy to vote for. Whereas I would not vote Labour in a national election.
Pleased to see the massive swing in Broxtowe reported by JackW's arse :-).
Meanwhile, here's the Opinium poll from the Observer which seems to have been overlooked (apols if it was up earlier). It's another tie, indeed a double tie: 33/33/14/7/7. Another big jump for Miliband (+6), and he's now seen as the most likeable leader of the UK leaders net (Farage is equal on likes but has far more dislikes), 3 over Cameron. Farage and Clegg well up too. Cameron is seen as the most statesmanlike AND the most slippery, evasive and defensive. All data is post-debate.
So you think we should all slap ourselves on the back because UKIP are now down to only 433% of the vote they had at the last election? Trumpeting a slide towards the big parties in the six months before a close election after they have rocketed up the polls in the four years before that is exactly the short term thinking I'm complaining about. The political class seems to jump between a mad panic when the recent polls show them rising, and a concerted mindset that nothing needs to change when the recent polls show them falling. This is exactly what happened with the SNP in Scotland yet the big parties refuse to learn any lessons from that experience now it's happening with UKIP in England.
Nearly a year ago, UKIP won the Euro elections. Since then, we have....er...dramtically stayed in the EU.
Other than having a few more UKIP mouths suckling on the Euro-teats of Plenty, can anyone say what this changed?
I know this might come as a shocker to you, but the other countries get to vote in the EU parliament as well, even if we had all our MEPs on an eurosceptic ticket, nothing would change at the moment. However, the trickle has started, AfD now has MEPs, FN has MEPs, lots of eurosceptic parties are slowly taking seats there, and at some point will have enough votes to be noticed.
Its the same story at home. UKIP got 3% last time, everyone smirked and felt safe. When they looked like they might get 18% and half a dozen MPs people started to get nervous. Now it looks more like 10% and 2 MPs people are feeling safer again and starting to patronise kippers again like before. If next time they get 15 seats and 20% of the vote, people will get worried again. Like all eurosceptic parties in the EU I expect them slowly to grow and gain influence, why, because the EU is a democratic clusterf*ck and an economic basket case, and people won't get a feel good feeling while we are attached to it.
Keep dreaming.
In the meantime, domestically the rest of us will live through the UKIP-gifted horror of Ed Miliband, Prime MInister.....
Watched the news last night. Miliband seems to think the state should command the banks to invest in certain things. Man's off his rocker.
Did he really write "Quiet Bat People" in his notes?
@PeterMannionMP: "Happy Warrior .... Quiet Bat People" Ed Miliband's handwritten motivational notes from the #leadersdebate... #GE2015 http://t.co/z3V4IohC86
I adore the original Batman series - nothing beats Cesar Romero or Vincent Price. It wouldn't be hard to add a bit of panda eyed make-up to EdM and create a new super villan.
Mr. Observer, perhaps. Worth bearing in mind we all pay more attention to politics generally so the general public may not feel quite as saturated with it as we do. Mr. P, honestly, I think Miliband would make a great Batman, in an original series' style TV show. "Holy ill-considered energy policy, Batman!" "Robin, hand me my capitalism-repellent Batspray."
To hit that target the Conservatives will need to be as much as four points ahead of Labour. That does not look impossible given where the polls are now. But the Tory campaign during the next four weeks will have to be a good one.
And that's to hit the bare minimum figure, the slightest of potential scenarios that might lead to a Tory victory. It might not be impossible, but that looks bloody difficult for them.
There are 32 more days of this, I believe. It seems like an eternity. The country is going to be on its knees by the time we go to the polls.
The was a very funny survey about a week ago where - over a weekend - it switched from about 40% of people hadn't realised there was an election to about 40% of people were bored of the election and wanted to be left alone|
So you think we should all slap ourselves on the back because UKIP are now down to only 433% of the vote they had at the last election? Trumpeting a slide towards the big parties in the six months before a close election after they have rocketed up the polls in the four years before that is exactly the short term thinking I'm complaining about. The political class seems to jump between a mad panic when the recent polls show them rising, and a concerted mindset that nothing needs to change when the recent polls show them falling. This is exactly what happened with the SNP in Scotland yet the big parties refuse to learn any lessons from that experience now it's happening with UKIP in England.
Nearly a year ago, UKIP won the Euro elections. Since then, we have....er...dramtically stayed in the EU.
Other than having a few more UKIP mouths suckling on the Euro-teats of Plenty, can anyone say what this changed?
I know this might come as a shocker to you, but the other countries get to vote in the EU parliament as well, even if we had all our MEPs on an eurosceptic ticket, nothing would change at the moment. However, the trickle has started, AfD now has MEPs, FN has MEPs, lots of eurosceptic parties are slowly taking seats there, and at some point will have enough votes to be noticed.
Its the same story at home. UKIP got 3% last time, everyone smirked and felt safe. When they looked like they might get 18% and half a dozen MPs people started to get nervous. Now it looks more like 10% and 2 MPs people are feeling safer again and starting to patronise kippers again like before. If next time they get 15 seats and 20% of the vote, people will get worried again. Like all eurosceptic parties in the EU I expect them slowly to grow and gain influence, why, because the EU is a democratic clusterf*ck and an economic basket case, and people won't get a feel good feeling while we are attached to it.
Keep dreaming.
In the meantime, domestically the rest of us will live through the UKIP-gifted horror of Ed Miliband, Prime MInister.....
So you think we should all slap ourselves on the back because UKIP are now down to only 433% of the vote they had at the last election? Trumpeting a slide towards the big parties in the six months before a close election after they have rocketed up the polls in the four years before that is exactly the short term thinking I'm complaining about. The political class seems to jump between a mad panic when the recent polls show them rising, and a concerted mindset that nothing needs to change when the recent polls show them falling. This is exactly what happened with the SNP in Scotland yet the big parties refuse to learn any lessons from that experience now it's happening with UKIP in England.
Nearly a year ago, UKIP won the Euro elections. Since then, we have....er...dramtically stayed in the EU.
Other than having a few more UKIP mouths suckling on the Euro-teats of Plenty, can anyone say what this changed?
I know this might come as a shocker to you, but the other countries get to vote in the EU parliament as well, even if we had all our MEPs on an eurosceptic ticket, nothing would change at the moment. However, the trickle has started, AfD now has MEPs, FN has MEPs, lots of eurosceptic parties are slowly taking seats there, and at some point will have enough votes to be noticed.
Its the same story at home. UKIP got 3% last time, everyone smirked and felt safe. When they looked like they might get 18% and half a dozen MPs people started to get nervous. Now it looks more like 10% and 2 MPs people are feeling safer again and starting to patronise kippers again like before. If next time they get 15 seats and 20% of the vote, people will get worried again. Like all eurosceptic parties in the EU I expect them slowly to grow and gain influence, why, because the EU is a democratic clusterf*ck and an economic basket case, and people won't get a feel good feeling while we are attached to it.
Keep dreaming.
In the meantime, domestically the rest of us will live through the UKIP-gifted horror of Ed Miliband, Prime MInister.....
Political party blames other political party for its own inability to attract voters....
Not to mention that its horsesh*t, the Conservatives are polling pretty much what they were in 2010, in effect the LD vote has gone to the kippers.
Nearly a million people visiting food banks and rising.....kids going to school hungry because their parents are struggling.......
103 businessmen with an average income of over £5,000,000 write to the Telegraph telling them it's crucial for the Tories to win the election.....
I'm starting to think this might be the most important election in my lifetime.
Because it would be so much better if those businessmen decided it would be better for their business to relocate to India or Malaysia, that would cure the problem with food banks and parents struggling right away.... oh wait!
I can't see Karen Brady moving West Ham to India. It would be great, but it's not going to happen. Stratford is far enough. A nice, new subsidised home from Boris and the government.
That's one saved then. What about the other thousand of businessmen and women across the country ?
We'll stick around. The vast majority of others will too.
Yes, I noticed that happening in France when Hollande was elected, they stuck around waiting for the next Eurostar to London.
The vast majority of French companies are still in France, but they are struggling because of labour laws we do not have (and no-one is going to introduce) and because they do not have any control over their currency. Like you, I am delighted that we have benefited from an influx of highly-qualified, ambitious, young French immigrants. We get their top talent, they get our unproductive retirees. Isn't the EU great?
Just shows how talented young people can benefit the country. Unfortunately for the UK only one party wants to restrict immigration to talented people.
Politician uses their six year old child to further their career by putting a picture of them on the front page of a national newspaper during an election.
Question: What do you think their profession was before becoming a politician?
1. They were a charity worker 2. They were a priest 3. They were a doctor 4. They were a librarian 5. They were an account executive in an advertising agency
Pleased to see the massive swing in Broxtowe reported by JackW's arse :-).
Meanwhile, here's the Opinium poll from the Observer which seems to have been overlooked (apols if it was up earlier). It's another tie, indeed a double tie: 33/33/14/7/7. Another big jump for Miliband (+6), and he's now seen as the most likeable leader of the UK leaders net (Farage is equal on likes but has far more dislikes), 3 over Cameron. Farage and Clegg well up too. Cameron is seen as the most statesmanlike AND the most slippery, evasive and defensive. All data is post-debate.
Nearly a million people visiting food banks and rising.....kids going to school hungry because their parents are struggling.......
103 businessmen with an average income of over £5,000,000 write to the Telegraph telling them it's crucial for the Tories to win the election.....
I'm starting to think this might be the most important election in my lifetime.
Because it would be so much better if those businessmen decided it would be better for their business to relocate to India or Malaysia, that would cure the problem with food banks and parents struggling right away.... oh wait!
I can't see Karen Brady moving West Ham to India. It would be great, but it's not going to happen. Stratford is far enough. A nice, new subsidised home from Boris and the government.
That's one saved then. What about the other thousand of businessmen and women across the country ?
We'll stick around. The vast majority of others will too.
Yes, I noticed that happening in France when Hollande was elected, they stuck around waiting for the next Eurostar to London.
The vast majority of French companies are still in France, but they are struggling because of labour laws we do not have (and no-one is going to introduce) and because they do not have any control over their currency. Like you, I am delighted that we have benefited from an influx of highly-qualified, ambitious, young French immigrants. We get their top talent, they get our unproductive retirees. Isn't the EU great?
Just shows how talented young people can benefit the country. Unfortunately for the UK only one party wants to restrict immigration to talented people.
Surely the market is the best way of deciding what the right products and people are to come into the country.
People - i.e. labour - are a commodity like any other.
Nearly a million people visiting food banks and rising.....kids going to school hungry because their parents are struggling.......
103 businessmen with an average income of over £5,000,000 write to the Telegraph telling them it's crucial for the Tories to win the election.....
I'm starting to think this might be the most important election in my lifetime.
Because it would be so much better if those businessmen decided it would be better for their business to relocate to India or Malaysia, that would cure the problem with food banks and parents struggling right away.... oh wait!
I can't see Karen Brady moving West Ham to India. It would be great, but it's not going to happen. Stratford is far enough. A nice, new subsidised home from Boris and the government.
That's one saved then. What about the other thousand of businessmen and women across the country ?
We'll stick around. The vast majority of others will too.
Yes, I noticed that happening in France when Hollande was elected, they stuck around waiting for the next Eurostar to London.
The vast majority of French companies are still in France, but they are struggling because of labour laws we do not have (and no-one is going to introduce) and because they do not have any control over their currency. Like you, I am delighted that we have benefited from an influx of highly-qualified, ambitious, young French immigrants. We get their top talent, they get our unproductive retirees. Isn't the EU great?
Just shows how talented young people can benefit the country. Unfortunately for the UK only one party wants to restrict immigration to talented people.
Actually all parties except UKIP do. If you are a talented Asia or African, you are stuffed unless you already have a job offer in the UK. On the other hand if you are a lazy, indolent, shiftless European we welcome you with open arms.
To hit that target the Conservatives will need to be as much as four points ahead of Labour. That does not look impossible given where the polls are now. But the Tory campaign during the next four weeks will have to be a good one.
And that's to hit the bare minimum figure, the slightest of potential scenarios that might lead to a Tory victory. It might not be impossible, but that looks bloody difficult for them.
There are 32 more days of this, I believe. It seems like an eternity. The country is going to be on its knees by the time we go to the polls.
I am already fed up with the mindless vox pops, I really wish the TV news didn't feel the need to pad out programmes with the ill-formed opinions of the ignorant and unwashed.
Stick to PB. No ignorant or unwashed here. No sireee!
Politician uses their six year old child to further their career by putting a picture of them on the front page of a national newspaper during an election.
Question: What do you think their profession was before becoming a politician?
1. They were a charity worker 2. They were a priest 3. They were a doctor 4. They were a librarian 5. They were an account executive in an advertising agency
Ha! I met Peter Stringfellow once by accident. I was going out with a chappy who was his next door neighbour [very nice apartment in a converted church in Highgate]. Peter knocked on his door totally wasted after being locked out of place by yet another angry girlfriend.
Back in the early 1990s I had a boss who was REALLY into motivational stuff .... he once told me he said "I love you" to himself in the mirror every morning...
Did you ask him, 'Peter, where did it all go wrong?' ?
Ha! I met Peter Stringfellow once by accident. I was going out with a chappy who was his next door neighbour [very nice apartment in a converted church in Highgate]. Peter knocked on his door totally wasted after being locked out of place by yet another angry girlfriend.
Back in the early 1990s I had a boss who was REALLY into motivational stuff .... he once told me he said "I love you" to himself in the mirror every morning...
Politician uses their six year old child to further their career by putting a picture of them on the front page of a national newspaper during an election.
Question: What do you think their profession was before becoming a politician?
1. They were a charity worker 2. They were a priest 3. They were a doctor 4. They were a librarian 5. They were an account executive in an advertising agency
Okay, so if a journalists contacted you in your new role as leader of the Sanctimony Party about doing a bit on your family, just something a bit soft focus to give the voters a insight to you as a human being. If your main rival had already done his photo op in his "snack preparation area", what are you going to do ? Tell them to piss off ? Do it but ostentatiously exclude the most important part of your non-political life ?
If you wish to control immigration, why not simply have every immigrant pay £50,000 to live in the UK. (And make the number x, equivalent to 1.2x the cost of an immigrant.)
The idea that the government, or civil servants, or politicians can correctly adjudge who the best people to be in the UK are is akin to suggesting they know what kind of car you should drive, or which industries should be invested in.
Ha! I met Peter Stringfellow once by accident. I was going out with a chappy who was his next door neighbour [very nice apartment in a converted church in Highgate]. Peter knocked on his door totally wasted after being locked out of place by yet another angry girlfriend.
Back in the early 1990s I had a boss who was REALLY into motivational stuff .... he once told me he said "I love you" to himself in the mirror every morning...
What's that story in the STimes about "New York Mayor eyes Boris's job"?
The Tories are reportedly sounding out Bloomberg about standing for London Mayor, presumably because they can't find anyone in the entire United Kingdom willing to give it a go who looks vaguely plausible. ROFL.
I think UKIP should put up Vladimir Putin. I'm sure Farage could swing the nomination for him.
If you wish to control immigration, why not simply have every immigrant pay £50,000 to live in the UK. (And make the number x, equivalent to 1.2x the cost of an immigrant.)
The idea that the government, or civil servants, or politicians can correctly adjudge who the best people to be in the UK are is akin to suggesting they know what kind of car you should drive, or which industries should be invested in.
Because I am not sure a group of rich children of Russian Oligarchs is what we need to bring our industry and commerce forward!
For the life of me I can't see why you are so opposed to an Australian/Canadian type system, both liberal modern states. An objective, colour blind points system based off of skills and qualifications generally useful to the country, favouring the young that will contribute for a long time before they retire, with a fast path for people with required skills that have a job offer, and specific bonuses for skills that are currently in need by their economies.
Nearly a million people visiting food banks and rising.....kids going to school hungry because their parents are struggling.......
103 businessmen with an average income of over £5,000,000 write to the Telegraph telling them it's crucial for the Tories to win the election.....
I'm starting to think this might be the most important election in my lifetime.
Because it would be so much better if those businessmen decided it would be better for their business to relocate to India or Malaysia, that would cure the problem with food banks and parents struggling right away.... oh wait!
I can't see Karen Brady moving West Ham to India. It would be great, but it's not going to happen. Stratford is far enough. A nice, new subsidised home from Boris and the government.
That's one saved then. What about the other thousand of businessmen and women across the country ?
We'll stick around. The vast majority of others will too.
Yes, I noticed that happening in France when Hollande was elected, they stuck around waiting for the next Eurostar to London.
The vast majority of French companies are still in France, but they are struggling because of labour laws we do not have (and no-one is going to introduce) and because they do not have any control over their currency. Like you, I am delighted that we have benefited from an influx of highly-qualified, ambitious, young French immigrants. We get their top talent, they get our unproductive retirees. Isn't the EU great?
Just shows how talented young people can benefit the country. Unfortunately for the UK only one party wants to restrict immigration to talented people.
Surely the market is the best way of deciding what the right products and people are to come into the country.
People - i.e. labour - are a commodity like any other.
It has always puzzled me that right wing economic theorists who believe in the uncontrolled movement of capital suddenly create a wall when it comes to the movement of labour !
A true disciple of Adam Smith would not do that. The right wingers today are just fakes !
Farage is despised by many in the centre & that's why he's in trouble. of course there will be tactical voting against him.
Which way will they tactically vote though, in a three way like Thanet S. its likely to cancel each other out, some think that is why Farage decide on that constituency to stand in.
Yeah totally agree with you. Thats his best hope right now, that labour & tories won't sort out which of the two should beat him. It suits neither party for Farage to win but marginally better for Labour, though that could be a mistake.
If individuals can organise some shenanigans [eg Twickers!] then maybe the best bet is a constituency deal whereby labour drop out of thanet south in exchange for tories giving up in another labour target? Would be worth it to decapitate Farage.
If you're Labour, you'd want to win this seat.
So a 60 - 30 anti EU majority are going to let pro EU Labour in? Stranger things have been predicted, like Labour losing 41 seats in Scotland and gaining double that in England... Its all the same thing of course really; even leaving aside the genuine 'ugly nativists' will a Centre Right/ Right broadly anti EU majority allow a far left dominated pro EU minority to gain hegemony?
Tory bill boards are going to have to get interesting.
PS. all sane normal people owe Carswell a debt of gratitude both for being so honest about Farage and in his shrewd use of euphamism.
Last thread, @Sean_F wrote "The belief that left-wing voters will vote Tory to keep out UKIP is like belief in unicorns."
I used to agree with that, but the latest French municipal elections have made me wonder. The Front National came second in the first round of voting, with 24.5% of the vote, but they ended up in about fifth position in terms of number of councillors, with just 1.5%.
In France, right wing voters - who'd been expected to split fairly evenly between the Socialists and the FN in the second round - voted overwhelmingly against the FN. So much so, that the Communists got 3-4x as many councillors elected as the FN. A great many right wing French voters choose to vote Communist rather than FN.
I think this bodes extremely poorly for UKIP as far as tactical voting goes.
We don't have two rounds of voting. People had the chance to vote tactically against UKIP in Heywood and Middleton, Clacton, and Rochester, and they didn't.
In France, plenty of right wing independents are also on much the same wavelength as FN
Nearly a million people visiting food banks and rising.....kids going to school hungry because their parents are struggling.......
103 businessmen with an average income of over £5,000,000 write to the Telegraph telling them it's crucial for the Tories to win the election.....
I'm starting to think this might be the most important election in my lifetime.
Because it would be so much better if those businessmen decided it would be better for their business to relocate to India or Malaysia, that would cure the problem with food banks and parents struggling right away.... oh wait!
I can't see Karen Brady moving West Ham to India. It would be great, but it's not going to happen. Stratford is far enough. A nice, new subsidised home from Boris and the government.
That's one saved then. What about the other thousand of businessmen and women across the country ?
We'll stick around. The vast majority of others will too.
Yes, I noticed that happening in France when Hollande was elected, they stuck around waiting for the next Eurostar to London.
The vast majority of French companies are still in France, but they are struggling because of labour laws we do not have (and no-one is going to introduce) and because they do not have any control over their currency. Like you, I am delighted that we have benefited from an influx of highly-qualified, ambitious, young French immigrants. We get their top talent, they get our unproductive retirees. Isn't the EU great?
Just shows how talented young people can benefit the country. Unfortunately for the UK only one party wants to restrict immigration to talented people.
Actually all parties except UKIP do. If you are a talented Asia or African, you are stuffed unless you already have a job offer in the UK. On the other hand if you are a lazy, indolent, shiftless European we welcome you with open arms.
or marry a UKIP MEP and be put on their tax payer funded payroll?
If you wish to control immigration, why not simply have every immigrant pay £50,000 to live in the UK. (And make the number x, equivalent to 1.2x the cost of an immigrant.)
The idea that the government, or civil servants, or politicians can correctly adjudge who the best people to be in the UK are is akin to suggesting they know what kind of car you should drive, or which industries should be invested in.
Because I am not sure a group of rich children of Russian Oligarchs is what we need to bring our industry and commerce forward!
For the life of me I can't see why you are so opposed to an Australian/Canadian type system, both liberal modern states. An objective, colour blind points system based off of skills and qualifications generally useful to the country, favouring the young that will contribute for a long time before they retire, with a fast path for people with required skills that have a job offer, and specific bonuses for skills that are currently in need by their economies.
Either you believe the government should have power, or you do not. Either you believe in individuals making their own decisions, or you do not.
You - like all the Labour party, many LibDems and Conservatives, and most kippers (excepting Richard Tyndall here) - seem to believe the government knows best.
Free market solutions mean allowing people to make their own decisions. That is morally right.
It will also have much the same impact as a points or quota system, but will benefit all Brits through tax revenue.
So you think we should all slap ourselves on the back because UKIP are now down to only 433% of the vote they had at the last election? Trumpeting a slide towards the big parties in the six months before a close election after they have rocketed up the polls in the four years before that is exactly the short term thinking I'm complaining about. The political class seems to jump between a mad panic when the recent polls show them rising, and a concerted mindset that nothing needs to change when the recent polls show them falling. This is exactly what happened with the SNP in Scotland yet the big parties refuse to learn any lessons from that experience now it's happening with UKIP in England.
Nearly a year ago, UKIP won the Euro elections. Since then, we have....er...dramtically stayed in the EU.
Other than having a few more UKIP mouths suckling on the Euro-teats of Plenty, can anyone say what this changed?
I know this might come as a shocker to you, but the other countries get to vote in the EU parliament as well, even if we had all our MEPs on an eurosceptic ticket, nothing would change at the moment. However, the trickle has started, AfD now has MEPs, FN has MEPs, lots of eurosceptic parties are slowly taking seats there, and at some point will have enough votes to be noticed.
Its the same story at home. UKIP got 3% last time, everyone smirked and felt safe. When they looked like they might get 18% and half a dozen MPs people started to get nervous. Now it looks more like 10% and 2 MPs people are feeling safer again and starting to patronise kippers again like before. If next time they get 15 seats and 20% of the vote, people will get worried again. Like all eurosceptic parties in the EU I expect them slowly to grow and gain influence, why, because the EU is a democratic clusterf*ck and an economic basket case, and people won't get a feel good feeling while we are attached to it.
Keep dreaming.
In the meantime, domestically the rest of us will live through the UKIP-gifted horror of Ed Miliband, Prime MInister.....
How does voting UKIP make EdM Prime Minister ?
But as you seem to so horrified at the prospect of PM EdM do you want Conservative supporters to vote UKIP where UKIP stands the best chance of beating Labour ?
Politician uses their six year old child to further their career by putting a picture of them on the front page of a national newspaper during an election.
Question: What do you think their profession was before becoming a politician?
1. They were a charity worker 2. They were a priest 3. They were a doctor 4. They were a librarian 5. They were an account executive in an advertising agency
I imagine PB today has been full of comments about how desperate it is for a politician to use his family to get votes.
If you wish to control immigration, why not simply have every immigrant pay £50,000 to live in the UK. (And make the number x, equivalent to 1.2x the cost of an immigrant.)
Mr. Politics, I can't recall for certain but I think I criticised Osborne for that at the time. Also, using public funds is different to commanding private enterprise to invest in certain projects.
I'm not partisan when it comes to political criticism. Yesterday I said Cameron ought to be thrashed around the head and neck with a large haddock until he has the vaguest understanding of how the internet works beaten into him.
Miliband's policy is crackers. One can only assume the Happy Warrior encountered a Dark Enchantress who cast a confusion spell upon him.
If you wish to control immigration, why not simply have every immigrant pay £50,000 to live in the UK. (And make the number x, equivalent to 1.2x the cost of an immigrant.)
The idea that the government, or civil servants, or politicians can correctly adjudge who the best people to be in the UK are is akin to suggesting they know what kind of car you should drive, or which industries should be invested in.
It's an interesting idea, but that would seem to price out cash-poor but skill-rich young graduates, who would be most beneficial, over aging sheikhs and oligarchs. We also need to look at non-economic factors, like who is most likely to integrate and put down roots. I would much rather have a quality Polish plumber than some Saudi prince with four burka-clad wives in tow. The constant fawning over a rootless international class of billionaires is what has caused many people to feel shut out of society and governance.
Farage is despised by many in the centre & that's why he's in trouble. of course there will be tactical voting against him.
Which way will they tactically vote though, in a three way like Thanet S. its likely to cancel each other out, some think that is why Farage decide on that constituency to stand in.
Yeah totally agree with you. Thats his best hope right now, that labour & tories won't sort out which of the two should beat him. It suits neither party for Farage to win but marginally better for Labour, though that could be a mistake.
If individuals can organise some shenanigans [eg Twickers!] then maybe the best bet is a constituency deal whereby labour drop out of thanet south in exchange for tories giving up in another labour target? Would be worth it to decapitate Farage.
If you're Labour, you'd want to win this seat.
I rather suspect that in an area like Thanet Conservative supporters hate Labour far more than they hate UKIP and Labour supporters hate the Conservatives far more than they hate UKIP.
If you wish to control immigration, why not simply have every immigrant pay £50,000 to live in the UK. (And make the number x, equivalent to 1.2x the cost of an immigrant.)
The idea that the government, or civil servants, or politicians can correctly adjudge who the best people to be in the UK are is akin to suggesting they know what kind of car you should drive, or which industries should be invested in.
No it is not Robert. That is a stupid analogy. The Government, quite rightly, are charged with the control of our borders and as such are the only organisation that can properly enact the public's view on who should or should not enter the country. If the public choose to have a system of controls on place based upon a broad spectrum of benefits and costs to the country from immigration (as in a points system) then it is the government who is tasked with putting that into action.
The problem as I have long seen it with your position is that you believe we should have unfettered immigration so as to benefit business but at the same time business should not be asked to deal with or pay for any costs or problems arising from the immigration. Personally I think that if you as a business want a migrant to come and do a job for you then it is the business which should be responsible for all the costs of that employee from the time they arrive in the country to the time they leave. That includes having to pay the costs of whatever benefits and services they are due if the business decides they no longer have work for them. And that should apply until the migrant either leaves the country again or gets alternative employment. Business should be responsible for the costs of migration just as much as they benefit from it.
If you wish to control immigration, why not simply have every immigrant pay £50,000 to live in the UK. (And make the number x, equivalent to 1.2x the cost of an immigrant.)
The idea that the government, or civil servants, or politicians can correctly adjudge who the best people to be in the UK are is akin to suggesting they know what kind of car you should drive, or which industries should be invested in.
Because I am not sure a group of rich children of Russian Oligarchs is what we need to bring our industry and commerce forward!
For the life of me I can't see why you are so opposed to an Australian/Canadian type system, both liberal modern states. An objective, colour blind points system based off of skills and qualifications generally useful to the country, favouring the young that will contribute for a long time before they retire, with a fast path for people with required skills that have a job offer, and specific bonuses for skills that are currently in need by their economies.
Either you believe the government should have power, or you do not. Either you believe in individuals making their own decisions, or you do not.
You - like all the Labour party, many LibDems and Conservatives, and most kippers (excepting Richard Tyndall here) - seem to believe the government knows best.
Free market solutions mean allowing people to make their own decisions. That is morally right.
It will also have much the same impact as a points or quota system, but will benefit all Brits through tax revenue.
So by that argument we should have open borders, and accept people from around the world anyone should be able to come to the UK and pitch for any job, to give the maximum access to talent and the maximum competition for wages, can see why employers like it, not sure it will go down so well with the people having their wages competed down.
Except for the problem of our free healthcare and education it might work.
Comments
I agree completely. Anyone that thinks UKIP are going to go away, especially in a world of rising Islam is whistling to keep themselves happy.
ukip have been sliding in the polls & have lost 40% of their support. thats not what anyone on political betting thinks or says, least of all the over-proportioned kippers on here but good solid plain fact. You can dislike it as much as you wish.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/poll-tracker
I have said all along that I would be happy with 10%, but I would not be at all surprised if UKIP win a couple of surprise seats in the North while not doing as well as expected in other areas.
UKIP got 3% in the last election. If they get 10% this time they will have done amazingly well, any other party that tripled their support in 5 years would have been seen as on a roll, its only because they managed to poll up to 18% that some people would see 10% as a disappointment. Personally I think they will get more than 10% at the election, they have a lot of support in the suburbs and quiet areas of the country that metro elite journalists don't visit very often.
Don't get me wrong, I am a Tory, I am not going to vote UKIP, but I think we are being monstrously complacent in underestimating their impact in the medium term. UKIP isn't going away, and more the political establishment offer the country what amounts to three centrist, liberal, metropolitan parties, the more pissed off the people in the suburbs and the shires are going to get, and there are a lot of people there, and a lot of them used to vote Conservative.
ARSE Summary :
Con 313 (-3) .. Lab 244 (+2) .. LibDem 30 (NC) .. SNP 36 (NC) .. UKIP 4 (+1) .. All Others NC
"JackW Dozen" - Only change - Broxtowe moves from Likely Con Hold to TCTC
To see oursels as ithers see us!
So you think we should all slap ourselves on the back because UKIP are now down to only 433% of the vote they had at the last election? Trumpeting a slide towards the big parties in the six months before a close election after they have rocketed up the polls in the four years before that is exactly the short term thinking I'm complaining about. The political class seems to jump between a mad panic when the recent polls show them rising, and a concerted mindset that nothing needs to change when the recent polls show them falling. This is exactly what happened with the SNP in Scotland yet the big parties refuse to learn any lessons from that experience now it's happening with UKIP in England.
And that's to hit the bare minimum figure, the slightest of potential scenarios that might lead to a Tory victory. It might not be impossible, but that looks bloody difficult for them.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b05p5zjw
Off to watch....
Oh bu993r: Next Saturday at 00:30. Bloody moon-worshippers....
This election will be decided not by switchers or swingers but by voters who will either vote labour or not vote at all.
Watched the news last night. Miliband seems to think the state should command the banks to invest in certain things. Man's off his rocker.
Other than having a few more UKIP mouths suckling on the Euro-teats of Plenty, can anyone say what this changed?
@PeterMannionMP: "Happy Warrior .... Quiet Bat People" Ed Miliband's handwritten motivational notes from the #leadersdebate... #GE2015 http://t.co/z3V4IohC86
There are however a floating pool of voters without strong allegience who will switch, but that is not quite the same thing.
Back in the early 1990s I had a boss who was REALLY into motivational stuff and had all our office walls plastered with those infamous pictures. And he once told me he said "I love you" to himself in the mirror every morning...
Mr. P, honestly, I think Miliband would make a great Batman, in an original series' style TV show.
"Holy ill-considered energy policy, Batman!"
"Robin, hand me my capitalism-repellent Batspray."
Its the same story at home. UKIP got 3% last time, everyone smirked and felt safe. When they looked like they might get 18% and half a dozen MPs people started to get nervous. Now it looks more like 10% and 2 MPs people are feeling safer again and starting to patronise kippers again like before. If next time they get 15 seats and 20% of the vote, people will get worried again. Like all eurosceptic parties in the EU I expect them slowly to grow and gain influence, why, because the EU is a democratic clusterf*ck and an economic basket case, and people won't get a feel good feeling while we are attached to it.
It wouldn't be hard to add a bit of panda eyed make-up to EdM and create a new super villan.
I used to agree with that, but the latest French municipal elections have made me wonder. The Front National came second in the first round of voting, with 24.5% of the vote, but they ended up in about fifth position in terms of number of councillors, with just 1.5%.
In France, right wing voters - who'd been expected to split fairly evenly between the Socialists and the FN in the second round - voted overwhelmingly against the FN. So much so, that the Communists got 3-4x as many councillors elected as the FN. A great many right wing French voters choose to vote Communist rather than FN.
I think this bodes extremely poorly for UKIP as far as tactical voting goes.
It was most amusing.
"God above, Robin! Communist Man is trying to destroy superheroes by slapping a 3,125% sales tax on lycra, spandex, and utility belts! The fiend!"
Mr. Lilburne, that irritates me as well.
The best 'bad' moment so far was one twonk (forget which network he worked for) who talked over footage of himself asking a question to a party leader.
As was alluded to downthread, the key to this election is whether or not the Reds turn out on the day. Cameron should be practising his rain dance...
Meanwhile, here's the Opinium poll from the Observer which seems to have been overlooked (apols if it was up earlier). It's another tie, indeed a double tie: 33/33/14/7/7. Another big jump for Miliband (+6), and he's now seen as the most likeable leader of the UK leaders net (Farage is equal on likes but has far more dislikes), 3 over Cameron. Farage and Clegg well up too. Cameron is seen as the most statesmanlike AND the most slippery, evasive and defensive. All data is post-debate.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/apr/04/general-election-2015-tories-labour-neck-and-neck-opinium-observer-poll
In the meantime, domestically the rest of us will live through the UKIP-gifted horror of Ed Miliband, Prime MInister.....
Grant Wankshaft? http://tinyurl.com/poa4gr4
Not to mention that its horsesh*t, the Conservatives are polling pretty much what they were in 2010, in effect the LD vote has gone to the kippers.
Question: What do you think their profession was before becoming a politician?
1. They were a charity worker
2. They were a priest
3. They were a doctor
4. They were a librarian
5. They were an account executive in an advertising agency
People - i.e. labour - are a commodity like any other.
"Pleased to see the massive swing in Broxtowe reported by JackW's arse :-)."
I wouldn't get too excited. Just an early morning twerk
* My big-sys was there - at the request of PS - for the opening of the Hippodrome. She fancied Steve Strange....
The idea that the government, or civil servants, or politicians can correctly adjudge who the best people to be in the UK are is akin to suggesting they know what kind of car you should drive, or which industries should be invested in.
I think UKIP should put up Vladimir Putin. I'm sure Farage could swing the nomination for him.
http://www.moneymarketing.co.uk/osbornes-big-plans-to-boost-mortgage-and-small-business-lending/1053055.article
For the life of me I can't see why you are so opposed to an Australian/Canadian type system, both liberal modern states. An objective, colour blind points system based off of skills and qualifications generally useful to the country, favouring the young that will contribute for a long time before they retire, with a fast path for people with required skills that have a job offer, and specific bonuses for skills that are currently in need by their economies.
"No one lays on their deathbed wishing that they had spent more time in the office"
A true disciple of Adam Smith would not do that. The right wingers today are just fakes !
Its all the same thing of course really; even leaving aside the genuine 'ugly nativists' will a Centre Right/ Right broadly anti EU majority allow a far left dominated pro EU minority to gain hegemony?
Tory bill boards are going to have to get interesting.
PS. all sane normal people owe Carswell a debt of gratitude both for being so honest about Farage and in his shrewd use of euphamism.
In France, plenty of right wing independents are also on much the same wavelength as FN
http://t.co/FqyTRreWxB http://t.co/zg83WnD5T0
You - like all the Labour party, many LibDems and Conservatives, and most kippers (excepting Richard Tyndall here) - seem to believe the government knows best.
Free market solutions mean allowing people to make their own decisions. That is morally right.
It will also have much the same impact as a points or quota system, but will benefit all Brits through tax revenue.
There is only one ARSE.
But as you seem to so horrified at the prospect of PM EdM do you want Conservative supporters to vote UKIP where UKIP stands the best chance of beating Labour ?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PRgjecnbqp0
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qwpz8snYCw8
He`s even more `out of touch` with the political situation on the ground.
I'm not partisan when it comes to political criticism. Yesterday I said Cameron ought to be thrashed around the head and neck with a large haddock until he has the vaguest understanding of how the internet works beaten into him.
Miliband's policy is crackers. One can only assume the Happy Warrior encountered a Dark Enchantress who cast a confusion spell upon him.
http://i.guim.co.uk/media/w-620/h--/q-95/a8459d0378c67fd9a998c2aa94b58db50c007fa2/0_0_3500_2103/1000.jpg
Jan: -21.5
Feb: -19.8
Mar: -15.7
Apr (4): -12.5
The problem as I have long seen it with your position is that you believe we should have unfettered immigration so as to benefit business but at the same time business should not be asked to deal with or pay for any costs or problems arising from the immigration. Personally I think that if you as a business want a migrant to come and do a job for you then it is the business which should be responsible for all the costs of that employee from the time they arrive in the country to the time they leave. That includes having to pay the costs of whatever benefits and services they are due if the business decides they no longer have work for them. And that should apply until the migrant either leaves the country again or gets alternative employment. Business should be responsible for the costs of migration just as much as they benefit from it.
Except for the problem of our free healthcare and education it might work.
Cons: 297
Lab: 262
SNP: 35
LD: 30
UKIP: 4
Green: 1
Other: 21