Good evening all. Below is a story that for all my cynicism I never expected to read: A man sent to prison for 4 months in Scotland for simply singing a song.
Why the surprise ? SNP and their statist laws running amok.
Don't imagine that something like that couldn't happen in the rest of the UK. The desire to tell people what to think and say is pretty strong amongst our rulers and quite a few others, to judge by the reactions of some people to events here, in France and elsewhere this year, for instance.
Osborne has been a truly excellent Chancellor in difficult times but if he has a weakness it is that he is political to his finger tips. For me he is at his most effective when he is least political. What Osbo will we see on Wednesday? The election could turn on it.
Good evening all. Below is a story that for all my cynicism I never expected to read: A man sent to prison for 4 months in Scotland for simply singing a song.
Why the surprise ? SNP and their statist laws running amok.
Don't imagine that something like that couldn't happen in the rest of the UK. The desire to tell people what to think and say is pretty strong amongst our rulers and quite a few others, to judge by the reactions of some people to events here, in France and elsewhere this year, for instance.
To be honest, I'm surprised a similar law hasn't been brought in South of the Border.
Good evening all. Below is a story that for all my cynicism I never expected to read: A man sent to prison for 4 months in Scotland for simply singing a song.
Why the surprise ? SNP and their statist laws running amok.
Don't imagine that something like that couldn't happen in the rest of the UK. The desire to tell people what to think and say is pretty strong amongst our rulers and quite a few others, to judge by the reactions of some people to events here, in France and elsewhere this year, for instance.
This of course is what is driving UKIP far more than immigration. The resentment against a bossy, authoritarian group of rulers who think they have the right to impose their moral mores on everyone else.
Mike - while you are on. I'm starting to get adverts with audio which you can't stop without muting the entire computer. Anything you can do about this - are you able to chose less obtrusive ads?
Blame Paul Staines who runs Messagespace
Yes, I think there's a market for a tool to silence adverts only. (Working title: STFU )
AdBlock Plus on Firefox has a setting now to allow unobtrusive ads to support websites while blocking the more obnoxious and intrusive ads.
EDIT: The default settings allow the current ads on this site so still support OGH, but I'm guessing vocal ones etc would be the sort to get blocked.
So not a single punter, Yellow-supporting or otherwise, was prepared to take me on at even money that Simon Hughes will retain his Bermondsey seat by at least 3,500 votes, compared with his majority of over 8,500 at the last GE. A sure sign surely of the horror story that is set to befall the LibDems on 7 May. So much for the much heralded incumbency factor if there's so little confidence in them comfortably holding onto bedrock seats such as this one.
So not a single punter, Yellow-supporting or otherwise, was prepared to take me on at even money that Simon Hughes will retain his Bermondsey seat by at least 3,500 votes, compared with his majority of over 8,500 at the last GE. A sure sign surely of the horror story that is set to befall the LibDems on 7 May. So much for the much heralded incumbency factor if there's so little confidence in them comfortably holding onto bedrock seats such as this one.
So not a single punter, Yellow-supporting or otherwise, was prepared to take me on at even money that Simon Hughes will retain his Bermondsey seat by at least 3,500 votes, compared with his majority of over 8,500 at the last GE. A sure sign surely of the horror story that is set to befall the LibDems on 7 May. So much for the much heralded incumbency factor if there's so little confidence in them comfortably holding onto bedrock seats such as this one.
P_f_P: I think Simon Hughes will probably lose his seat. I suspect Vince might too.
If you want a LibDem bet, can we do Cambridge? With Labour in second place last time and lots of students in the seat, it should be a very easy pickup. I'll bet £20 on LibDems, you can have the field.
I'm starting to think that Ed is nothing like the buffoon many think he is. He's ruled out all possibility of letting the SNP into government.
What does it tell us? Absolutely nothing except that he looks like a major player. He's moving from a rather absurd no hoper into a PM in waiting. In one swipe he diminishes Nicola to a petty provincial council leader. I'd be surprised if it doesn't do Labour some good in Scotland too
No hasn't.
You have polling as up to date as post announcement
Please tell
Why do I need polling to tell me he hasn't completely ruled the SNP out of government?
Good evening all. Below is a story that for all my cynicism I never expected to read: A man sent to prison for 4 months in Scotland for simply singing a song.
Why the surprise ? SNP and their statist laws running amok.
Don't imagine that something like that couldn't happen in the rest of the UK. The desire to tell people what to think and say is pretty strong amongst our rulers and quite a few others, to judge by the reactions of some people to events here, in France and elsewhere this year, for instance.
This of course is what is driving UKIP far more than immigration. The resentment against a bossy, authoritarian group of rulers who think they have the right to impose their moral mores on everyone else.
I loathe the bossy so-and-so's who want to curb/silence or otherwise control free speech / free thought (as my posts might have made clear) but the last thing it's done is driven me to UKIP. I rather feel that they are another type of authoritarians who, if they had the power to do so, would impose their moral mores on everyone else too.
Good evening all. Below is a story that for all my cynicism I never expected to read: A man sent to prison for 4 months in Scotland for simply singing a song.
Why the surprise ? SNP and their statist laws running amok.
Don't imagine that something like that couldn't happen in the rest of the UK. The desire to tell people what to think and say is pretty strong amongst our rulers and quite a few others, to judge by the reactions of some people to events here, in France and elsewhere this year, for instance.
To be honest, I'm surprised a similar law hasn't been brought in South of the Border.
So not a single punter, Yellow-supporting or otherwise, was prepared to take me on at even money that Simon Hughes will retain his Bermondsey seat by at least 3,500 votes, compared with his majority of over 8,500 at the last GE. A sure sign surely of the horror story that is set to befall the LibDems on 7 May. So much for the much heralded incumbency factor if there's so little confidence in them comfortably holding onto bedrock seats such as this one.
Osborne has been a truly excellent Chancellor in difficult times but if he has a weakness it is that he is political to his finger tips. For me he is at his most effective when he is least political. What Osbo will we see on Wednesday? The election could turn on it.
He has been an ordinary Chancellor in extraordinary times.
So not a single punter, Yellow-supporting or otherwise, was prepared to take me on at even money that Simon Hughes will retain his Bermondsey seat by at least 3,500 votes, compared with his majority of over 8,500 at the last GE. A sure sign surely of the horror story that is set to befall the LibDems on 7 May. So much for the much heralded incumbency factor if there's so little confidence in them comfortably holding onto bedrock seats such as this one.
Ashcroft polling perhaps explains the lack of betting interest in this case, while confirming why there's no nation-wide wipe-out expected by the yellows. Even if we don't believe Ashcroft, LD-Con is a more numerous battleground than LD-Lab, and subject to a much smaller negative national swing.
Osborne has been a truly excellent Chancellor in difficult times but if he has a weakness it is that he is political to his finger tips. For me he is at his most effective when he is least political. What Osbo will we see on Wednesday? The election could turn on it.
Yes - if he is or tries to be too clever by half it could all backfire. Even if the Budget is a good one from the Tories' perspective and contains no "pasty tax" style disasters, I don't expect - based on nothing at all - a huge shift in the polls.
Not a single punter, Red, Blue or Purple has been prepared to take me on on my LibDems to hold Cambridge bet.
Surely this is a sign that the Yellow Peril will sweep all before them in 45 days time, and Clegg will be safely ensconced in 10 Downing Street before the second new moon.
So not a single punter, Yellow-supporting or otherwise, was prepared to take me on at even money that Simon Hughes will retain his Bermondsey seat by at least 3,500 votes, compared with his majority of over 8,500 at the last GE. A sure sign surely of the horror story that is set to befall the LibDems on 7 May. So much for the much heralded incumbency factor if there's so little confidence in them comfortably holding onto bedrock seats such as this one.
P_f_P: I think Simon Hughes will probably lose his seat. I suspect Vince might too.
If you want a LibDem bet, can we do Cambridge? With Labour in second place last time and lots of students in the seat, it should be a very easy pickup. I'll bet £20 on LibDems, you can have the field.
Deal?
The Conservatives came second in Cambridge in 2010.
Mike - while you are on. I'm starting to get adverts with audio which you can't stop without muting the entire computer. Anything you can do about this - are you able to chose less obtrusive ads?
Blame Paul Staines who runs Messagespace
Yes, I think there's a market for a tool to silence adverts only. (Working title: STFU )
AdBlock Plus on Firefox has a setting now to allow unobtrusive ads to support websites while blocking the more obnoxious and intrusive ads.
EDIT: The default settings allow the current ads on this site so still support OGH, but I'm guessing vocal ones etc would be the sort to get blocked.
So not a single punter, Yellow-supporting or otherwise, was prepared to take me on at even money that Simon Hughes will retain his Bermondsey seat by at least 3,500 votes, compared with his majority of over 8,500 at the last GE. A sure sign surely of the horror story that is set to befall the LibDems on 7 May. So much for the much heralded incumbency factor if there's so little confidence in them comfortably holding onto bedrock seats such as this one.
P_f_P: I think Simon Hughes will probably lose his seat. I suspect Vince might too.
If you want a LibDem bet, can we do Cambridge? With Labour in second place last time and lots of students in the seat, it should be a very easy pickup. I'll bet £20 on LibDems, you can have the field.
Deal?
The Conservatives came second in Cambridge in 2010.
So they did.
I'm an idiot.
And the LibDems will still hold Cambridge, I suspect.
Good evening all. Below is a story that for all my cynicism I never expected to read: A man sent to prison for 4 months in Scotland for simply singing a song.
Why the surprise ? SNP and their statist laws running amok.
Don't imagine that something like that couldn't happen in the rest of the UK. The desire to tell people what to think and say is pretty strong amongst our rulers and quite a few others, to judge by the reactions of some people to events here, in France and elsewhere this year, for instance.
This of course is what is driving UKIP far more than immigration. The resentment against a bossy, authoritarian group of rulers who think they have the right to impose their moral mores on everyone else.
I loathe the bossy so-and-so's who want to curb/silence or otherwise control free speech / free thought (as my posts might have made clear) but the last thing it's done is driven me to UKIP. I rather feel that they are another type of authoritarians who, if they had the power to do so, would impose their moral mores on everyone else too.
Then sadly you are being successfully duped by the establishment then.....
I'm starting to think that Ed is nothing like the buffoon many think he is. He's ruled out all possibility of letting the SNP into government.
What does it tell us? Absolutely nothing except that he's a major player. He's moving from a rather absurd no hoper into a PM in waiting. In one swipe he diminishes Nicola to a petty provincial council leader. I'd be surprised if it doesn't do Labour some good in Scotland
All he has ruled out is a coalition. He has not ruled out supply and confidence, which most English voters would see as cash for "ayes", unless he does rule this out too, as Cameron has, it will poison Labours relationship with English voters.
(the cash being English taxpayers cash disappearing into Scotland in return for supporting Labour motions in Parliament that won't be applied to Scotland as they have devolved powers on most of the matters).
You can't rule out supply and confidence. That is in the gift of the party supplying it. What can you do - tell them not to vote for you?
On the other hand you can rule out coalition because that involves gifting cabinet seats.
The Tories sound a bit foolish demanding Miliband rules out supply and confidence from the SNP.
It's curious that OGH chooses not to refer to this fact after repeating over and over again the extent to which Labour headed the Tories in the polls over recent weeks.
Although the Tories remain strong favourites to get most seats this time, the Tories should be terrified by the 19% lead Labour have on the "likeability" ratings. Just imagine what it could be like next time if Labour actually get a likeable, relateable, human leader (though admittedly that isn't a shoo-in taking into account Yvette Cooper and Chuka Umunna are among the "contenders" for the position).
I'm starting to think that Ed is nothing like the buffoon many think he is. He's ruled out all possibility of letting the SNP into government.
What does it tell us? Absolutely nothing except that he's a major player. He's moving from a rather absurd no hoper into a PM in waiting. In one swipe he diminishes Nicola to a petty provincial council leader. I'd be surprised if it doesn't do Labour some good in Scotland
All he has ruled out is a coalition. He has not ruled out supply and confidence, which most English voters would see as cash for "ayes", unless he does rule this out too, as Cameron has, it will poison Labours relationship with English voters.
(the cash being English taxpayers cash disappearing into Scotland in return for supporting Labour motions in Parliament that won't be applied to Scotland as they have devolved powers on most of the matters).
You can't rule out supply and confidence. That is in the gift of the party supplying it. What can you do - tell them not to vote for you?
On the other hand you can rule out coalition because that involves gifting cabinet seats.
The Tories sound a bit foolish demanding Miliband rules out supply and confidence from the SNP.
You can rule out offering any concessions to a party to provide it which effectively negates the concept of supply and confidence.
Osborne has been a truly excellent Chancellor in difficult times but if he has a weakness it is that he is political to his finger tips. For me he is at his most effective when he is least political. What Osbo will we see on Wednesday? The election could turn on it.
He has been an ordinary Chancellor in extraordinary times.
That's the tragedy.
Mr Brooke never allows himself to compliment a Tory minister.
So not a single punter, Yellow-supporting or otherwise, was prepared to take me on at even money that Simon Hughes will retain his Bermondsey seat by at least 3,500 votes, compared with his majority of over 8,500 at the last GE. A sure sign surely of the horror story that is set to befall the LibDems on 7 May. So much for the much heralded incumbency factor if there's so little confidence in them comfortably holding onto bedrock seats such as this one.
More prosaically it's that nobody could be arsed.
Yep, you're probably right - what's twenty quid after all?
So not a single punter, Yellow-supporting or otherwise, was prepared to take me on at even money that Simon Hughes will retain his Bermondsey seat by at least 3,500 votes, compared with his majority of over 8,500 at the last GE. A sure sign surely of the horror story that is set to befall the LibDems on 7 May. So much for the much heralded incumbency factor if there's so little confidence in them comfortably holding onto bedrock seats such as this one.
P_f_P: I think Simon Hughes will probably lose his seat. I suspect Vince might too.
If you want a LibDem bet, can we do Cambridge? With Labour in second place last time and lots of students in the seat, it should be a very easy pickup. I'll bet £20 on LibDems, you can have the field.
Before people get carried away with some journalists and so called experts desperate wish for a Labour victory at any cost, as regulars say the trend is your friend.
Over the past 9 months ICM has gone from Labour leads of 7 to Tory leads of 1 and 4 Populus has gone from Labour leads of 6 and 7 to between Labour leads of 2 and tied Survation with the exception of January's Tory lead maintains Labour 4 to 6 ahead ComRes has gone from Labour leads of 6 and 7 to between Labour leads of 2 and Tory leads of 2 Opinium has gone from Labour leads of 6 to between Labour leads of 2 and Tory leads of 2 YouGov has gone from Labour leads of 5 and 6 to Tory leads of between 1 and 4 in 6 out of the last 10 polls with 2 tied and 2 Labour leads Ashcroft has gone from Labour leads of 6 and 9 to Tory leads of 2 to 4 IpsosMori has edged down from Labour leads of 3 to 1 with a couple of 3 point Tory leads at the end of last year. TNS remains stuck on Labour leads of 7
The Ashcroft marginal polls which in some cases are now 9 months old showed Labour taking its 1st 19 Tory targets and in 10 of them with a notional lead of less than 10%
He then showed then taking the next 7 with notional leads in 5 of them of under 10%
He showed them taking more than another 13 and among that 13 were more Tory holds than losses.
So Ashcroft showed Labour winning no more than 40 seats before hitting the Tory firewall of holds. Those 40 seats are not consecutive because there are 13 Tory holds, starting with Pudsey at No 22.
So at best Labour MIGHT on a good night win as many seats from the Tories as it is expected to lose to the SNP. Given that half those potential 40 Labour gains were showing leads of under 10%, the chances are that Labour must realistically be looking at a net loss of seats, depending on how many it can win from the Liberals.
So not a single punter, Yellow-supporting or otherwise, was prepared to take me on at even money that Simon Hughes will retain his Bermondsey seat by at least 3,500 votes, compared with his majority of over 8,500 at the last GE. A sure sign surely of the horror story that is set to befall the LibDems on 7 May. So much for the much heralded incumbency factor if there's so little confidence in them comfortably holding onto bedrock seats such as this one.
P_f_P: I think Simon Hughes will probably lose his seat. I suspect Vince might too.
If you want a LibDem bet, can we do Cambridge? With Labour in second place last time and lots of students in the seat, it should be a very easy pickup. I'll bet £20 on LibDems, you can have the field.
Deal?
The Conservatives came second in Cambridge in 2010.
So they did.
I'm an idiot.
And the LibDems will still hold Cambridge, I suspect.
So not a single punter, Yellow-supporting or otherwise, was prepared to take me on at even money that Simon Hughes will retain his Bermondsey seat by at least 3,500 votes, compared with his majority of over 8,500 at the last GE. A sure sign surely of the horror story that is set to befall the LibDems on 7 May. So much for the much heralded incumbency factor if there's so little confidence in them comfortably holding onto bedrock seats such as this one.
P_f_P: I think Simon Hughes will probably lose his seat. I suspect Vince might too.
If you want a LibDem bet, can we do Cambridge? With Labour in second place last time and lots of students in the seat, it should be a very easy pickup. I'll bet £20 on LibDems, you can have the field.
Deal?
The Conservatives came second in Cambridge in 2010.
So they did.
I'm an idiot.
And the LibDems will still hold Cambridge, I suspect.
Plenty of academic high liberal types along with sanctimonious priggs there who will still vote for Huppert. Reckon thats a nailed on Libdem hold even if they lost Bermondsey, North Norfolk and Yeovil. Ditto West Oxford & Abingdon being a Libdem gain.
Good evening all. Below is a story that for all my cynicism I never expected to read: A man sent to prison for 4 months in Scotland for simply singing a song.
Why the surprise ? SNP and their statist laws running amok.
Don't imagine that something like that couldn't happen in the rest of the UK. The desire to tell people what to think and say is pretty strong amongst our rulers and quite a few others, to judge by the reactions of some people to events here, in France and elsewhere this year, for instance.
This of course is what is driving UKIP far more than immigration. The resentment against a bossy, authoritarian group of rulers who think they have the right to impose their moral mores on everyone else.
I loathe the bossy so-and-so's who want to curb/silence or otherwise control free speech / free thought (as my posts might have made clear) but the last thing it's done is driven me to UKIP. I rather feel that they are another type of authoritarians who, if they had the power to do so, would impose their moral mores on everyone else too.
Then sadly you are being successfully duped by the establishment then.....
I don't think so. Farage is typical of one sort of City type I've spent my working life taking on. And people like him were pretty common when I was growing up. They rather sneered at people like my parents, on the basis of the crudest of stereotypes and usually from a position of ignorance. The idea that he is in any sense different to other politicians and will free us from bossiness is so much hot air.
OT Any poster interested in maths autism China or who went to Trinity college Cambridge a new English film X+Y might interest them. In many ways it did what 'Theory of Everything' didn't do and made all of the above interesting
I have it on good authority that elements of the Blue Rinse vote in Yeovil who have vowed never to vote Conservative again over Dave's social liberalism and gay marriage wheeze have decided to vote for David Laws as a personal vote on the grounds that all the parties are rotten to the core but he personally is a good egg which mean they will be voting Liberal for the first time ever.
I have it on good authority that elements of the Blue Rinse vote in Yeovil who have vowed never to vote Conservative again over Dave's social liberalism and gay marriage wheeze have decided to vote for David Laws as a personal vote on the grounds that all the parties are rotten to the core but he personally is a good egg which mean they will be voting Liberal for the first time ever.
One to give some crumbs of comfort to OGH.
Tory voters are going to protest against gay marriage by....voting for a gay candidate?
OT Any poster interested in maths autism China or who went to Trinity college Cambridge a new English film X+Y might interest them. In many ways it did what 'Theory of Everything' didn't do and made all of the above interesting
It's based (ish) on a documentary from a few years ago that is absolutely wonderful viewing.
I have it on good authority that elements of the Blue Rinse vote in Yeovil who have vowed never to vote Conservative again over Dave's social liberalism and gay marriage wheeze have decided to vote for David Laws as a personal vote on the grounds that all the parties are rotten to the core but he personally is a good egg which mean they will be voting Liberal for the first time ever.
One to give some crumbs of comfort to OGH.
Tory voters are going to protest against gay marriage by....voting for a gay candidate?
Yes, just because people disagree with gay marriage dosen't mean that they despise and hate gay people. I know the left think otherwise, but most people do treat other people as individuals and judge them on their whole character not just one part of it.
The tories will learn at this election that a good chunk of voters voted for them up until 2010 because they saw them as the only hope for defending Judeo - Christian values against secularists and social-secularists. Thats gone now. Personally I would have prefered to see such people vote UKIP instead but such people tend to regard them as a bit boorish when compared with a constituency MP with a very good local record.
Osborne has been a truly excellent Chancellor in difficult times but if he has a weakness it is that he is political to his finger tips. For me he is at his most effective when he is least political. What Osbo will we see on Wednesday? The election could turn on it.
He has been an ordinary Chancellor in extraordinary times.
That's the tragedy.
I think Osborne's done well on some of the tax and pension reforms.
But his macroeconomics have been a repeat of Brown - all the talk of economic rebalancing and deficit reduction turned out to be only talk.
Osborne said this back in January 2010:
"at the moment we borrow money from the Chinese in order to buy the things that the Chinese make for us"
but we now have an economy with a record current account deficit and in which government debt has increased by over a trillion pounds during the last decade.
It's curious that OGH chooses not to refer to this fact after repeating over and over again the extent to which Labour headed the Tories in the polls over recent weeks.
Now, now - you know it's not curious at all, totally par for the course.
Good evening all. Below is a story that for all my cynicism I never expected to read: A man sent to prison for 4 months in Scotland for simply singing a song.
Billy Boys is the same kind of song as the Marseillaise. But it would cause a national incident if someone was jailed for singing the latter, and singers of the former are a dispensable demographic. They'll be jailing people for reciting Shakespeare next.
Osborne has been a truly excellent Chancellor in difficult times but if he has a weakness it is that he is political to his finger tips. For me he is at his most effective when he is least political. What Osbo will we see on Wednesday? The election could turn on it.
Yes - if he is or tries to be too clever by half it could all backfire. Even if the Budget is a good one from the Tories' perspective and contains no "pasty tax" style disasters, I don't expect - based on nothing at all - a huge shift in the polls.
The big story on Wednesday is the reply to the budget - surely the scariest event in the LOTO's calendar, and an opportunity for ed to shift the polls, though not in a good way.
How usual is it to have a budget this close to a GE?
Osborne has been a truly excellent Chancellor in difficult times but if he has a weakness it is that he is political to his finger tips. For me he is at his most effective when he is least political. What Osbo will we see on Wednesday? The election could turn on it.
He has been an ordinary Chancellor in extraordinary times.
That's the tragedy.
I think Osborne's done well on some of the tax and pension reforms.
But his macroeconomics have been a repeat of Brown - all the talk of economic rebalancing and deficit reduction turned out to be only talk.
Osborne said this back in January 2010:
"at the moment we borrow money from the Chinese in order to buy the things that the Chinese make for us"
but we now have an economy with a record current account deficit and in which government debt has increased by over a trillion pounds during the last decade.
he has been abother political Chancellor. That's almost 20 years without a reformer in office.
Our banks are too big to fail. No-one has shaken up the vested interests. The tax code's a mess. We've too much bureaucracy. We cut investment in our infrastructure not current spending. Our economy is still unbalanced. Productivity is on the floor.
I could go on, but it simply shows what still needs to be tackled next Parliament round.
Leave Osborne in place and it will be the same list in 2020.
Osborne has been a truly excellent Chancellor in difficult times but if he has a weakness it is that he is political to his finger tips. For me he is at his most effective when he is least political. What Osbo will we see on Wednesday? The election could turn on it.
He has been an ordinary Chancellor in extraordinary times.
That's the tragedy.
I think Osborne's done well on some of the tax and pension reforms.
But his macroeconomics have been a repeat of Brown - all the talk of economic rebalancing and deficit reduction turned out to be only talk.
Osborne said this back in January 2010:
"at the moment we borrow money from the Chinese in order to buy the things that the Chinese make for us"
but we now have an economy with a record current account deficit and in which government debt has increased by over a trillion pounds during the last decade.
I could have sworn the current account deficit just halved.
Osborne has been a truly excellent Chancellor in difficult times but if he has a weakness it is that he is political to his finger tips. For me he is at his most effective when he is least political. What Osbo will we see on Wednesday? The election could turn on it.
He has been an ordinary Chancellor in extraordinary times.
That's the tragedy.
I think Osborne's done well on some of the tax and pension reforms.
But his macroeconomics have been a repeat of Brown - all the talk of economic rebalancing and deficit reduction turned out to be only talk.
Osborne said this back in January 2010:
"at the moment we borrow money from the Chinese in order to buy the things that the Chinese make for us"
but we now have an economy with a record current account deficit and in which government debt has increased by over a trillion pounds during the last decade.
I could have sworn the current account deficit just halved.
Osborne has been a truly excellent Chancellor in difficult times but if he has a weakness it is that he is political to his finger tips. For me he is at his most effective when he is least political. What Osbo will we see on Wednesday? The election could turn on it.
He has been an ordinary Chancellor in extraordinary times.
That's the tragedy.
I think Osborne's done well on some of the tax and pension reforms.
But his macroeconomics have been a repeat of Brown - all the talk of economic rebalancing and deficit reduction turned out to be only talk.
Osborne said this back in January 2010:
"at the moment we borrow money from the Chinese in order to buy the things that the Chinese make for us"
but we now have an economy with a record current account deficit and in which government debt has increased by over a trillion pounds during the last decade.
I could have sworn the current account deficit just halved.
Comments
I saw the final ELBOW but not the usual graphs - which are always excellent!
EDIT: The default settings allow the current ads on this site so still support OGH, but I'm guessing vocal ones etc would be the sort to get blocked.
A sure sign surely of the horror story that is set to befall the LibDems on 7 May. So much for the much heralded incumbency factor if there's so little confidence in them comfortably holding onto bedrock seats such as this one.
50,000 seconds
If you want a LibDem bet, can we do Cambridge? With Labour in second place last time and lots of students in the seat, it should be a very easy pickup. I'll bet £20 on LibDems, you can have the field.
Deal?
That's the tragedy.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/mar/16/tory-mp-dont-mention-david-cameron-conservatives
Surely this is a sign that the Yellow Peril will sweep all before them in 45 days time, and Clegg will be safely ensconced in 10 Downing Street before the second new moon.
I'm an idiot.
And the LibDems will still hold Cambridge, I suspect.
On the other hand you can rule out coalition because that involves gifting cabinet seats.
The Tories sound a bit foolish demanding Miliband rules out supply and confidence from the SNP.
Fancy a bet on whether he'll come over or under ?
Over the past 9 months
ICM has gone from Labour leads of 7 to Tory leads of 1 and 4
Populus has gone from Labour leads of 6 and 7 to between Labour leads of 2 and tied
Survation with the exception of January's Tory lead maintains Labour 4 to 6 ahead
ComRes has gone from Labour leads of 6 and 7 to between Labour leads of 2 and Tory leads of 2
Opinium has gone from Labour leads of 6 to between Labour leads of 2 and Tory leads of 2
YouGov has gone from Labour leads of 5 and 6 to Tory leads of between 1 and 4 in 6 out of the last 10 polls with 2 tied and 2 Labour leads
Ashcroft has gone from Labour leads of 6 and 9 to Tory leads of 2 to 4
IpsosMori has edged down from Labour leads of 3 to 1 with a couple of 3 point Tory leads at the end of last year.
TNS remains stuck on Labour leads of 7
The Ashcroft marginal polls which in some cases are now 9 months old showed Labour taking its 1st 19 Tory targets and in 10 of them with a notional lead of less than 10%
He then showed then taking the next 7 with notional leads in 5 of them of under 10%
He showed them taking more than another 13 and among that 13 were more Tory holds than losses.
So Ashcroft showed Labour winning no more than 40 seats before hitting the Tory firewall of holds. Those 40 seats are not consecutive because there are 13 Tory holds, starting with Pudsey at No 22.
So at best Labour MIGHT on a good night win as many seats from the Tories as it is expected to lose to the SNP. Given that half those potential 40 Labour gains were showing leads of under 10%, the chances are that Labour must realistically be looking at a net loss of seats, depending on how many it can win from the Liberals.
On the third statement not the second.
One to give some crumbs of comfort to OGH.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beautiful_Young_Minds
The tories will learn at this election that a good chunk of voters voted for them up until 2010 because they saw them as the only hope for defending Judeo - Christian values against secularists and social-secularists. Thats gone now. Personally I would have prefered to see such people vote UKIP instead but such people tend to regard them as a bit boorish when compared with a constituency MP with a very good local record.
But his macroeconomics have been a repeat of Brown - all the talk of economic rebalancing and deficit reduction turned out to be only talk.
Osborne said this back in January 2010:
"at the moment we borrow money from the Chinese in order to buy the things that the Chinese make for us"
but we now have an economy with a record current account deficit and in which government debt has increased by over a trillion pounds during the last decade.
Very interesting. It certainly seems similar. Odd that they didn't give it a credit
Billy Boys is the same kind of song as the Marseillaise. But it would cause a national incident if someone was jailed for singing the latter, and singers of the former are a dispensable demographic. They'll be jailing people for reciting Shakespeare next.
How usual is it to have a budget this close to a GE?
Our banks are too big to fail.
No-one has shaken up the vested interests.
The tax code's a mess.
We've too much bureaucracy.
We cut investment in our infrastructure not current spending.
Our economy is still unbalanced.
Productivity is on the floor.
I could go on, but it simply shows what still needs to be tackled next Parliament round.
Leave Osborne in place and it will be the same list in 2020.
new thread
http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/datasets-and-tables/data-selector.html?cdid=HBOP&dataset=pnbp&table-id=B
Its best to look at the actual data before you make comments.
The current account deficit for the last four quarters is just under £100bn.
By comparison the current account deficit for the four quarters before Osborne became CoE was about £32bn.